2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Every AL/NL West Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). This is the final of three articles, as I previously wrote on the AL and NL East as well as the AL and NL Central. Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 3B Wes Kath, Desert Mountain HS, Scottsdale, AZ
Usually, Phoenix and its suburbs are a hotspot for talent, with notable recent first round Arizonans including Nick Gonzales (New Mexico via Vail), Matthew Liberatore (Glendale), and Nolan Gorman (Phoenix). This year, no Arizonans figure to be in play at pick #6, and probably not at #42 either, but when the Diamondbacks loop back at pick #67 in the second competitive balance round, Wes Kath could be a great option if he's not already off the board. The Scottsdale native is a slugging corner infielder who can really smoke the baseball from the left side, a product of the strength and leverage in his 6'3" frame. Unlike most power hitters his age, he also shows a strong hit tool and feel for the barrel, so he should have no problem tapping his power in pro ball. In fact, for much of his prep career, that hit tool has been ahead of his power, which is saying something given his powerful 6'3" frame and high exit velocities. Kath is committed to head south on 101 to college at Arizona State, so the Diamondbacks would only need to divert him a couple of miles west to downtown.
Other Options: LHP Brock Selvidge (Hamilton HS, Chandler, AZ), RHP Dominic Hamel (Dallas Baptist via Chandler, AZ), RHP Chase Silseth (Arizona via Farmington, NM), OF Donta Williams (Arizona via Las Vegas, NV), SS Channy Ortiz (Grand Canyon via Phoenix, AZ)

Colorado Rockies: C Casey Opitz, Arkansas (hometown: Centennial, CO)
Neither Colorado, Colorado State, Denver, nor Wyoming has a baseball team, so unless elite prospects want to play at Northern Colorado or Air Force, they have to leave the region to chase their Division I dreams. One of those kids was Casey Opitz, who graduated from Heritage High School in Centennial before embarking across the plains to Arkansas. There, he has blossomed into Pitching Ninja's favorite catcher due to his high energy playing style behind the plate. Opitz indeed is one of the better defensive catchers in the college game, showing great mobility behind the plate, a strong arm, and perhaps most importantly, all of the leadership qualities you look for in a seasoned backstop. In an organization like Colorado, where you're often pitching in hitter-friendly environments that can be discouraging, that's even more important. Opitz's bat isn't as special as his glove, as he shows strong plate discipline but for the most part has lacked impact. Additionally, he'll turn 23 shortly after the draft, which combined with the fringy bat gives him a pretty clear backup projection. Opitz probably won't be in play on Day One, but once the Rockies loop back around for their fourth round pick at #109, he could start to make sense anywhere between there and maybe pick #200ish in the seventh round.
Other options: RHP Chase Silseth (Arizoan via Farmington, NM), RHP Riley Cornelio (Texas Christian via Monument, CO), RHP Cale Lansville (Thunder Ridge HS, Highlands Ranch, CO), RHP/1B Sam Ireland (Minnesota via Highlands Ranch, CO), 2B Cooper Bowman (Louisville via Rapid City, SD)

Houston Astros: RHP Caedmon Parker (The Woodlands Christian HS, The Woodlands, TX)
The Astros don't pick until #87 this year after the sign stealing scandal, which almost certainly puts them out of the running for top local products like Ty Madden (Texas via Cypress), Colton Cowser (Sam Houston State via Cypress) and Izaac Pacheco (Friendswood), and possibly Dylan Smith (Alabama via Stafford) as well. Still, Southeast Texas is so rich with prospects that we still have plenty of options to choose from. Last year, the Astros went above slot value to bring in a falling high school pitcher in Alex Santos with the 72nd pick, and they could do the same thing with Caedmon Parker this year. I'm personally a big fan of Parker, an athletic 6'4" righty who also plays wide receiver at The Woodlands Christian High School. His fastball velocity has been inconsistent, sitting in the upper 80's on some days and touching 95 on others, but given his athleticism, springy delivery, and room to add a ton of good weight, I can easily see him sitting at the upper end of that velocity band or higher in the future. He adds a curveball, slider, and changeup that are all developing, but he spins the ball well and I can see at least one if not two or three of those pitches becoming above average to plus down the road. Additionally, Parker fills up the strike zone very consistently, which is usually not the case with these long-term, projectability types. And lastly, because he's young for the class with a June birthday, he has that much more time to develop. Parker is committed to TCU and even though he'll likely be an expensive sign this year, I think he'll be significantly more expensive in three years.
Other options: RHP Dylan Smith (Alabama via Stafford, TX), SS Cameron Cauley (Barbers Hill HS, Mont Belvieu, TX), RHP Bryce Miller (Texas A&M via New Braunfels, TX), RHP Landon Marceaux (Louisiana State via Destrehan, LA), RHP Brandon Birdsell (Texas A&M via Willis, TX)

Los Angeles Angels: SS Matt McLain, UCLA (hometown: Tustin, CA)
I feel comfortable splitting up the two Los Angeles teams despite combining the two New York and Chicago teams (plus the Bay Area teams lower down on this list), with plenty of space separating Angel Stadium and Dodger Stadium. For the Angels, we'll go with UCLA star Matt McLain, even if pick #9 might be just a little rich for him at this point. McLain was a stud at Beckman High School in northern Irvine, and the Diamondbacks tried to pry him out of Southern California by drafting him 25th overall. However, he didn't sign, and proceeded to post a disappointing freshman season up in Westwood (.203/.276/.355), but has been trending back up ever since. The Tustin native was red hot when the season shut down in 2020, then continued his hot hitting ways over the summer. After getting out of the gates a little slow in 2021, he's back to his usual ways lately and if he continues on this path, he very well could be an option at pick #9. McLain is a smaller guy at 5'11", but he's an elite athlete who packs a lot of strength into his lean frame and could profile for average or even above average power. He also finds the barrel very consistently with a quick right handed stroke, with plus speed that makes him a weapon on the bases. He has the athleticism for shortstop but his feel for the position is so-so, so keeping him at the premium position might require a little bit of development. Working slightly against him is age, as he'll turn 22 slightly after the draft.
Other options: LHP Gage Jump (JSerra Catholic HS, San Juan Capistrano, CA), SS Cody Schrier (JSerra HS), RHP Michael McGreevy (UC Santa Barbara via San Clemente, CA), 1B JT Schwartz (UCLA via Newport Beach, CA), RHP Troy Melton (San Diego State via Anaheim, CA)

Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Max Muncy, Thousand Oaks HS, Thousand Oaks, CA
Now wouldn't this be funny? Max Muncy is indeed not related to the current Dodger of the same name, but is currently waiting right there for the team just forty miles to the northwest across the Ventura County line. I originally thought about giving the Dodgers Mira Costa (Manhattan Beach) star Thatcher Hurd at the 29th pick, but given how small their bonus pool will be without a second round pick, I'm not sure they can afford him. Likewise, not having that second round pick means they won't pick again until #101, so there's a good chance Muncy is off the board by then as well unless he slides due to signing bonus demands. However, the idea of the Dodgers picking up another Max Muncy was too interesting not to talk about. He's a feel-over-tools guy who can just flat out play, showing few weaknesses in his profile. Muncy has a nice 6'1" frame with long levers that help him put nice leverage into his right handed swing, giving him a chance at above average power. While his swing mechanics can be inconsistent in the box, he shows enough feel for the barrel to profile as at least an average hitter if not above average, which pairs nicely with that emerging power. Defensively, he doesn't quite have the range or athleticism for shortstop, but he has the chance to be an above average third baseman if he moves over there. With a lot of building blocks to work with, the Dodgers could sign him above slot in the third round to keep him away from Arkansas, but if he's snatched up earlier (he likely will be), they can just draft his Thousand Oaks teammate, second baseman Roc Riggio.
Other options: 2B Roc Riggio (Thousand Oaks HS, Thousand Oaks, CA), RHP Thatcher Hurd (Mira Costa HS, Manhattan Beach, CA), RHP Sean Sullivan (California via Woodland Hills, CA), C Noah Cardenas (UCLA via Saugus, CA), RHP Jesse Bergin (UCLA via Los Angeles, CA)

Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants
Hitter: OF Tyree Reed, American Canyon HS, American Canyon, CA
Unlike Los Angeles, I decided to combine Oakland and San Francisco into one Bay Area "hometown" because there isn't quite enough talent on the San Francisco side of the Bay and they share the Central Valley/Sacramento area anyways. For the hitter, we'll go with American Canyon star Tyree Reed, who is a fairly polarizing prospect due to his lack of exposure. He didn't attend many events over the summer and underwhelmed in his limited looks, but scouts with more history with Reed have seen him do great things on the baseball field. A skinny 6'2", he can show off one of the better left handed swings in the class, a quick, leveraged stroke that will help him hit for above average power down the line. For now, he needs to add strength in order to produce that power, but he does have strong plate discipline that should allow him to tap it once it comes. Reed is also a plus runner who has the chance to be a standout defender in center field, only adding to his value. The lack of a track record means he won't be in play for the Giants at pick #14 and might be a bit of a stretch for the A's at pick #25, but if he's still around for the Giants at #50 or the A's at #60, he could make a lot of sense. American Canyon, by the way, is just north of Vallejo on the way up to Napa. He's committed to Oregon State and could command a large bonus.
Other options: OF Ryan Holgate (Arizona via Davis, CA), SS Davis Diaz (Acalanes HS, Lafayette, CA), OF Braiden Ward (Washington via Merced, CA), 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State via Pleasant Hill, CA), 2B Darren Baker (California via Granite Bay, CA)
Pitcher: RHP Trenton Denholm (UC Irvine via El Dorado Hills, CA)
Honestly, this spot was up for grabs between three pitchers from the same high school, Oak Ridge High School in the Sacramento suburb of El Dorado Hills. Though Houston ace Robert Gasser has seen his name trend up lately, I decided to go with UC Irvine star Trenton Denholm over Gasser and Texas lefty Pete Hansen because Denholm was the only one to stay in state for school while the other two headed to the Lone Star State. Denholm was actually eligible last year, but he went undrafted and because he was extremely young for a college junior last year, he's still age-appropriate for this year's draft. He won't overpower you, but he will out-compete you and that's led to one of the better statistical track records in this year's draft. The 5'11" righty dominated for two summers in the elite Cape Cod League, not allowing an earned run in 32.2 innings, and he held a 1.90 ERA over 123.1 innings at UCI from 2019-2020. Denholm gets it done with a modest fastball that sits around 90, getting up to 93 at his best, adding a slider and curveball that can miss bats. His best pitch is a plus changeup that makes the rest of his arsenal play up, and he ties it all together with strong command and a bulldog-like mentality on the mound, going right after hitters. He's been a bit more inconsistent in 2021, alternating brilliant starts against Hawai'i and UC San Diego with rough ones against Cal State Northridge and Cal Poly. His proponents will point to his makeup and long track record of results, but detractors will look at his size and lack of velocity and point Denholm to the bullpen. Regardless, the 21 year old will come into play in the third round if a team wants to sign him below slot, but otherwise, more likely in the fourth or fifth round.
Other options: LHP Robert Gasser (Houston via El Dorado Hills, CA), LHP Pete Hansen (Texas via El Dorado Hills, CA), RHP Cullen Kafka (Oregon via Walnut Creek, CA), RHP Anthony Susac (Jesuit HS, Carmichael, CA), RHP Alex Williams (Stanford via Castro Valley, CA)

San Diego Padres: RHP Grant Holman, California (hometown: Chula Vista, CA)
The Padres, perhaps more than any other team, love to take high-ceiling high school talent at the top of the draft, and this year, there's an absolute stud right in their backyard at Eastlake High School in Chula Vista. In my opinion, Eastlake's Marcelo Mayer is the best high school player in the draft, and the Padres would absolutely love to get him in their system, but unfortunately (or fortunately) they don't pick until #27 this year. Mayer is likely to go in the top five picks, so we'll shift our focus to another Eastlake alum, California star Grant Holman. Holman is a two-way star who hit .264/.348/.414 over his first two years in Berkeley, but gave up hitting this year to focus on pitching and the results have been great. His fastball has ticked up into the mid 90's at times and has touched 97, and he puts nice life on the ball with his 6'6" frame. The big right hander, who clocks in at 250 pounds, also adds a full array of secondary pitches, with the slider being the one to take a step forward this year. He's been moving up boards all spring, so the Padres could jump onto the train heading in the right direction and look to develop the rest of his arsenal. He throws plenty of strikes and has that big, durable frame, giving him the upside of an impact starting pitcher. The Chula Vista native would probably be a bit of a stretch at pick #27 unless he takes off at the end of the season, but he could be in play when the Padres come back around at pick #62 and again at #71. Of course, I fully expect them to target high school talent, but Mayer is the only Day One high school prospect I've come across so far.
Other options: RHP Kevin Abel (Oregon State via San Diego, CA), RHP Braden Olthoff (Tulane via Oceanside, CA), RHP Mason Pelio (Boston College via San Diego, CA), RHP Nick Nastrini (UCLA via San Diego, CA), RHP Carson Seymour (Kansas State via Temecula, CA)

Seattle Mariners: OF Malakhi Knight, Marysville-Getchell HS, Marysville, WA
No PNW players will be in play when the Mariners select at pick #12, but a couple of local high school products will be over their next couple of picks. We'll look at outfielder Malakhi Knight, who stars at Marysville-Getchell High School at the northern tip of the Seattle suburbs. The Marysville native shows off a powerful right handed swing that generates plenty of loft and leverage from a strong 6'3" frame, though it can get a bit grooved and out of whack at times. He also shows solid feel for the strike zone that should enable him to tap more and more power as he grows into it, though scouts are looking for a bit more consistency at this point. Knight will also be an asset in the outfield, where his at least above average speed could play in center field and his strong arm will be a net-positive in right field. To top it all off, "Malakhi Knight" is in my opinion the coolest name in a prep class that also includes Roc Riggio, Lorenzo Carrier, and Vytas Valincius. Knight is committed to Oregon State and makes sense for the Mariners at pick #48.
Other options: RHP Max Debiec (O'Dea Catholic HS, Seattle, WA), 1B Kyle Manzardo (Washington State via Coeur d'Alene, ID), C Shane McGuire (San Diego via Kent, WA), RHP Willie Weiss (Michigan via Portland, OR), RHP Jake Pfennigs (Oregon State via Post Falls, ID)

Texas Rangers: SS Jordan Lawlar, Jesuit HS, Dallas, TX
We'll end with probably the easiest pick to make here. Not only is Lawlar the most likely Metroplex product to end up with the Rangers this year, he might be the most likely player period. A native of Irving, Lawlar attends arguably the best baseball program in the region, Jesuit High School in North Dallas, and he's separated himself as arguably the top high school player in the country. Personally, I'm just a bit higher on San Diego high schooler Marcelo Mayer, but that's neither here nor there. Lawlar stands out first for his combination of exceptional athleticism and exceptional feel for the game, often looking like he's just on a different level from others on the baseball field with him. He brings great feel for the barrel that enables him to spray hard line drives all around the field against advanced pitching, with burgeoning power in his lean 6'2" frame. On the other side of the ball, he shows great range and a strong arm at shortstop that could make him an impact defender with a little more consistency. A plus runner, Lawlar wreaks havoc on the bases but is a smart baserunner who knows when to be aggressive without making boneheaded mistakes. There's really a lot, a lot to like with Lawlar, which is why numerous mock drafts have projected him to the Rangers at #2 overall. Really, the only flaws his detractors will point to are age, as he'll turn 19 in July, and power that plays closer to average than plus.
Other options: RHP Eric Hammond (Keller HS, Keller, TX), RHP Ryan Johnson (Red Oak HS, Red Oak, TX), LHP Jonathan Childress (Texas A&M via Forney, TX), RHP Rawley Hector (Anna HS, Anna, TX), LHP Hagen Smith (Bullard HS, Bullard, TX)

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Every AL/NL Central Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). This is the second of three articles, as I previously wrote on the AL and NL East. Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. AL/NL West article here.

Chicago Cubs/White Sox
Hitter: SS Branden Comia, Illinois (hometown: Orland Park, IL)
I'm going to do the same thing here that I did with the Mets and Yankees, just combining the Cubs and White Sox and picking a hitter and a pitcher. Despite its size, Chicago doesn't bring quite as much baseball talent to the table as warmer places like Atlanta, Houston, or Los Angeles, but it's usually good for a couple names every year. This year, Day One likely won't yield any Chicagoland natives, especially not any bats, so I dug a little deeper to find Illini shortstop Branden Comia. A graduate of Carl Sandburg High School in Orland Park, about twenty miles southwest of downtown, Comia hit just .255/.322/.370 as a freshman but has caught fire ever since. He burst onto the scene with a .426/.526/.702 line over 13 games in the shortened 2020 season, and his 2021 has been nearly as hot. A bit undersized at 5'10", he shows great feel for the barrel from the right side and has tapped some moderate power in Urbana-Champaign, and he does a very good job of limiting his strikeouts. The power will likely never be more than fringe-average, as his swing is geared towards line drives and he hasn't hit well with wood bats. Comia will stick in the middle infield, either at shortstop or second base, and has a utility projection. He probably doesn't make sense for the Cubs or White Sox in the first two to three rounds, but once we get into triple digits on the overall board, one of them might like his consistent profile.
Other options: C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), 3B Alex Binelas (Louisville via Oak Creek, WI), OF Zaid Walker (Michigan State via Homewood, IL)
Pitcher: RHP McCade Brown, Indiana (hometown: Normal, IL)
We'll move a little outside of Chicagoland to get to a really interesting pitcher. McCade Brown went to Normal West High School in Normal, Illinois, just over one hundred miles southwest of Chicago and home of Illinois State University. To call his first two years at Indiana unremarkable would actually be a compliment; in 6.2 innings, he allowed eleven earned runs (14.85 ERA) and walked thirteen batters (31% of those he faced). However, something clicked for the 6'6" righty over the summer and by fall practice, he was a completely transformed pitcher. Brown came out absolutely dealing to start the season, shutting down Rutgers and Penn State for one run over fourteen innings, allowing just three hits, two walks, and two hit batsmen along the way and striking out 28. He's come back down to Earth a bit since then, but we still have a heck of a prospect on our hands. At his best, Brown can touch 96 with his fastball and drop in an absolute hammer curveball, backed up by a distinct slider with late break as well. However, over extended innings, his stuff has flattened out just a little bit and the command has backed up a hair as well, so both the Cubs (pick #21) and White Sox (pick #22) might be a little bit of a stretch in the first round at this point unless he regains that early season form. If he's still on the board when they pick again at #56 and #57, respectively, both could be very interested.
Other options: RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), RHP J.P. Massey (Minnesota via Chicago, IL), RHP Jack Perkins (Louisville via Kokomo, IN), RHP Johnny Ray (Texas Christian via Quincy, IL), RHP Luke Smith (Louisville via Champaign, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: OF Daylen Lile, Trinity HS, Louisville, KY
I was torn between Daylen Lile and Ohio State ace Seth Lonsway, but despite Lonsway being a Buckeye State lifer who grew up in Celina, I went with Lile because a) I think he has a better chance of landing in Cincinnati than Lonsway and b) I've written about Lonsway a lot over the years since he was on draft radars in both 2017 and 2020, so I think it's time we give the new kid a shot. Lile is a really interesting bat out of Louisville who is committed to stay in town and play for the Cardinals should he push pro ball down the road, but he's trending up and might not end up at school. Nobody doubts his pure hit tool, as he brings an extremely professional approach at the plate that he combines with a smooth, leveraged left handed swing to find the barrel consistently. Up until this spring, there were some minor concerns over his power output, as he lacked the pure strength to really maximize his skill set, but he's come out swinging a hot bat lately and has been turning on more baseballs. If he can continue to add muscle to his 6'1" frame, he has a chance to be an extremely well-rounded hitter. The defense is a bit of a question mark, as he is fringy in center field and doesn't quite have the arm for right field. Because there's a chance he ends up in left field, teams will really need to bank on that strength continuing to manifest, which is why his hot 2021 has been very good for his stock. Lile will not be in play for the Reds' first round pick at #17, but they have a couple of comp picks at #30 and #35, then their second round pick comes in at #53. He could make sense at either of those comp picks, or if bonus demands push him down, the Reds should have space to sign him above slot at #53.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), RHP Sam Bachman (Miami of OH via Fishers, IN), SS Luke Waddell (Georgia Tech via Loveland, OH), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), SS Trey Sweeney (Eastern Illinois via Louisville, KY)

Cleveland Indians: LHP Evan Shawver, Cincinnati (hometown: Amherst, OH)
Northern Ohio can be hit or miss in terms of producing baseball talent, last year giving us Massillon natives Dillon Dingler (Ohio State) and Kyle Nicolas (Ball State), and this year we have one Day One prospect in Cincinnati lefty Evan Shawver. A product of Steele High School in Amherst, on the western edge of the Cleveland suburbs, Shawver transformed himself as a pitcher between his freshman and sophomore years. The undersized lefty greatly improved his command while seeing his stuff tick up as well, bumping into the low 90's with his fastball and topping out as high as 97. His slider flashes plus with late diving action and his changeup is an above average pitch as well, and the entire package put him in the top tier of college lefties according to some evaluators. However, he's barely pitched lately and I can't find information as to why, which has knocked him into the second tier. Depending on why he's missed time, durability questions could start to creep up given his size. He won't be in play at pick #23 but depending how he returns, he could be at #58, #69, or #95.
Other options: LHP Seth Lonsway (Ohio State via Celina, OH), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH), LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia via Gahanna, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Cincinnati via Warren, OH)

Detroit Tigers: SS Alex Mooney, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, West Bloomfield, MI
Prep middle infielders seem to have an interesting tendency to get drafted higher than the national rankings say. It seems like every year, the national rankings will have one of these kids in the second round that at least a few teams like at the back of the first, such as Matt McLain in 2018, Anthony Volpe in 2019, and Nick Yorke and Carson Tucker in 2020. There are a few more names like that in 2021, and if the Tigers want to go that route, one is from Michigan. Alex Mooney stands out for his feel for the game over his tools, in a somewhat similar vein to Jordan Lawlar at the top of the draft (who could be an option for the Tigers at pick #3). Mooney isn't as athletic as Lawlar, but he's simply a gamer who makes things happen on the field. He has a quick swing from the right side and puts some nice lift on the ball, maximizing his impact by choosing good pitches to swing at and doing damage. The Rochester Hills native definitely has the feel for shortstop, but a superior defender may be able to push him to third base. Also like Lawlar, Mooney is old for the class and will be 19 on draft day, which works against him for many teams, and he'll be eligible again in 2023 after two seasons at Duke if he chooses that route.
Other options: SS/RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (Nebraska via Saginaw, MI), 3B Luke Leto (Portage Central HS, Portage, MI), RHP Mason Erla (Michigan State via Cass City, MI), 1B Niko Kavadas (Notre Dame via Granger, IN), LHP Michael Kirian (Louisville via New Riegel, OH)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Ben Kudrna, Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS
I was tempted to go with KC native and Arkansas star Christian Franklin here, but pick #7 might be just a little rich for him given his slight strikeout concerns. We'll go with Ben Kudrna, an interesting high school pitcher out of Blue Valley Southwest High School at the southern edge of the KC suburbs, since the Royals tend to like these types of arms and he makes a lot of sense at pick #43. Kudrna's velocity has been ticking up little by little over the last few years, and this spring he's been sitting in the mid 90's more often and touching 97-98. He adds an above average slider and changeup to make for a very well-rounded arsenal, and on top of all that, he fills up the strike zone with a repeatable delivery that should enable him to remain a starter over the long run. There's a really nice combination of ceiling and floor here for a high school arm, and Kudrna isn't too dissimilar to Ben Hernandez, the Royals' 41st overall pick last year who was older for his class and didn't quite have Kudrna's breaking ball.
Other options: OF Christian Franklin (Arkansas via Overland Park, KS), C Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS, Kansas City, MO), LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State via Conway, AR), RHP Brannon Jordan (South Carolina via Collinsville, OK), RHP Cole Larsen (Kansas via Jamestown, KS)

Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (hometown: Oak Creek, WI)
It's really hard to pin down Alex Binelas' draft stock right now. He entered the season a potential top ten pick, but picked up just two hits in his first eight games, spanning 31 at bats, and even then continued on a cold stretch. However, he righted the ship towards the end of March and has been on a tear ever since, and in a crop of college bats that has really disappointed so far, he's starting to stand out once again. The Brewers pick at #15, which at this point is too rich for the slugging infielder, but if he continues to hit this way, he could make more and more sense. Milwaukee picks again at #33, which could also be a fit if Binelas cools off just a little bit. He's proven to be one of the streakiest hitters in the draft, so anything is really possible. The Oak Creek native has tremendous raw power from the left side, the product of a lightning quick barrel and plenty of strength in his 6'3" frame. He goes through stretches where he's tapping that power virtually every game, and at those times he looks like a top ten pick, but also can start to swing through pitches at other times, especially soft stuff. Defensively, he shows a strong arm at third base but his mobility there has become increasingly questionable, especially after Lucas Dunn forced him over to first base. Binelas could also make sense in at a corner outfield spot.
Other options: SS Noah Miller (Ozaukee HS, Fredonia, WI), C Ian Moller (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI), RHP Glenn Albanese (Louisville via Batavia, IL), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA)

Minnesota Twins: C Ian Moller, Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA
Sometimes it can be tough to find Day One prospects from the Twin Cities, though last year we did get third overall pick and Woodbury native Max Meyer out of Minnesota. This year, nobody stands out from the Gopher State, so I headed south of the border into Iowa to grab Dubuque star Ian Moller. It makes sense, because the Twins are no stranger to catchers in the early rounds and plucked Ben Rortvedt out of a Wisconsin high school in the second round in 2016 as well as UNC Wilmington's Ryan Jeffers in the second round in 2018. Moller probably won't be in play at pick #26 in the first round, though the Twins' pick at #36 might represent his draft ceiling and an over slot deal at #61 could make sense as well. Moller has a picturesque swing that looks a little like a right handed Cody Bellinger, generating a ton of torque in his vicious but controlled uppercut. That in turn produces plus raw power that looks especially good from a catcher, and while his hit tool can be streaky, he has shown strong feel for the barrel against good pitching. The LSU commit also shows a good all-around defensive profile, with smooth glove work, a strong arm, and a quick release. It's a really well-rounded profile for a high school catcher, especially when he's hot at the plate, but high school catchers are notoriously risky and some teams avoid them altogether in the early rounds. The ceiling, though, is tantalizing, especially for a team like the Twins with an extra competitive balance pick.
Other options: RHP Aidan Maldonado (Illinois via Rosemount, MN), 2B Cooper Bowman (Louisville via Rapid City, SD), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), OF Levi Usher (Louisville via Fairfax, IA), RHP Tanner Kohlhepp (Notre Dame via Eau Claire, WI)

Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Will Bednar, Mississippi State (hometown: Valencia, PA)
Since Gibsonia native Neil Walker's star faded, we haven't had a star major leaguer from western Pennsylvania to take his place, but a few are coming up the pipeline. Between the Twins' Alex Kirilloff (Plum) and the Reds' Austin Hendrick (Imperial), there are a couple power hitting outfielders ready to make their marks, and now Mississippi State has what could be the best yinzer arm in a very long time. The younger brother of current Pirates reliever David Bednar, Will rode an excellent but short freshman season in Starkville (1.76 ERA, 23/6 K/BB in 15.1 IP) to an even bigger sophomore season, where he has pitched himself into the fringes of the first round conversation. While he won't be in play when the Pirates lead off the draft with the first overall pick, he could make a lot of sense at #37 if he's still available. The Valencia native deals a low to mid 90's fastball that gets up to 95-96 at its best, bringing nice ride that misses bats. His slider has taken a step forward this year and has become a true plus pitch, a wipeout offering that misses bats even when he misses his location. Bednar has also worked in a solid curveball and changeup in the past, but since his slider took off, he hasn't had much need for them. His control is ahead of his command for now but he fills up the strike zone and has proven durable thus far. As a draft-eligible sophomore/COVID freshman, he might have a high asking price, but Pittsburgh should be able to swing it given the size of their bonus pool.
Other options: LHP Joe Rock (Ohio via Aliquippa, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA), OF Benny Montgomery (Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro Area HS, Enola, PA), RHP Ryan Bergert (West Virginia via Canton, OH)

St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Drew Gray, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Swansea, IL)
The Cardinals could target Memphis product Hunter Goodman in the second round, but if we really want to go with a hometown pick, we'll wait until the third or fourth round with Drew Gray. Gray grew up just across the river in Swansea, Illinois, next to Belleville, but headed across the country to the IMG Academy in Florida to hone his baseball skill set. Primarily known as an outfielder throughout most of his prep career, he's very new to pitching and is a pure projection pick at this point. He brings a low 90's fastball that gets up to 93-94 at its best, but can dip into the upper 80's later in his starts, and his breaking ball is pretty slurvy for now. However, scouts love the way his arm works and see a lot to like in his mechanics as well, and some thing that a simple combination of added strength and seasoning could make him a monster. Of course, given that Gray only turns 18 in May, there is plenty of time to do both of those things. The Cardinals could choose to bite with the 70th or 90th overall pick, in which case they'd be taking a risk but hopefully buying into the breakout before it happens. If he goes unsigned and makes it to campus at Arkansas, he could come out a first round pick in 2024.
Other options: C Hunter Goodman (Memphis via Arlington, TN), SS Benjamin Sems (Michigan via Chesterfield, MO), OF Colson Montgomery (Southridge HS, Huntingburg, IN), 1B Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), LHP Hugh Fisher (Vanderbilt via Eads, TN)

2021 MLB Draft: A Hometown Pick for Each AL/NL East Team

I'm personally just as interested in maps as I am in the MLB Draft, so naturally I really like it when players go to their hometown team. Seeing Ryan Zimmerman (Virginia Beach, VA) on the Nationals, Justin Turner (Lakewood, CA) on the Dodgers, Joe Musgrove (La Mesa, CA) on the Padres, etc. makes me happy. Last year, the Cubs drafted Chicago native Ed Howard in the first round, which I thought was really cool. Obviously, picking the hometown guy usually plays a negligible part in the selection process, but it's still fun to think about. So, if teams were drafting to make me happy, what hometown players could they target early in the draft? Note, I'll usually think in terms of the first pick if possible, but if necessary I'll find targets for the second or third pick (especially in the "other options" section). I'll be writing three articles on this, starting with the AL and NL East (Central can be found here and West can be found here). Note this is NOT a mock draft – it's just for fun and I don't actually think many of these will happen. They're just fun to think about. 

Atlanta Braves: C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS, Kennesaw, GA
Let's be honest, the Braves will never, ever, ever have trouble finding players in their own backyard. The Atlanta area is one of the top metros for baseball talent in the entire country, and without another team within 350 miles, much of the entire South can be considered "Braves country." I elected to go with North Cobb star Harry Ford at pick #24, who goes to school just 15 miles northwest of Truist Park in Kennesaw. He's an ultra-athletic catcher, something you don't hear often. Ford shows the potential for plus raw power from the right side, a product of the tremendous torque in his swing despite a smaller 5'10" frame. He also shows strong hitting ability, and at peak could be one of the better hitting catchers in the country. With plus speed, he could also play second base or center field. He will have the ability to stick back behind the plate if his drafting team chooses to keep him back there with his cat-like agility. Committed to Georgia Tech, he's an ATL lifer.
Other options: RHP Jonathan Cannon (Georgia via Alpharetta, GA), LHP Ryan Webb (Georgia via Roswell, GA), RHP Bubba Chandler (North Oconee HS, Bogart, GA), SS Ryan Bliss (Auburn via LaGrange, GA), SS Michael Braswell (Campbell HS, Smyrna, GA)

Baltimore Orioles: OF James Wood, IMG Academy, FL (hometown: Olney, MD)
The Orioles pick at fifth overall, which might be just a little rich for James Wood at this point, but last year they under-slotted Heston Kjerstad overall and Wood could be an under-slot candidate at pick #5. Though he attends the IMG Academy outside of Tampa, Florida, Wood grew up in Olney about 25 miles southwest of Camden Yards. He brings absolutely tremendous raw power from the left side, a product of his 6'6" frame, brute strength, quick hands, and great leverage. Not just a pure bruiser, he brings strong feel for the barrel as well with a patient approach and a good eye at the plate. He runs very well for his size and should be an asset in right field. Once he reaches Camden, you could see him peppering Eutaw Street with plenty of home runs. He is committed to Mississippi State.
Other options: LHP Mason Albright (IMG Academy, FL via Thurmont, MD), SS Jose Torres (NC State via Baltimore, MD), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE), LHP Peter Heubeck (Gilman HS, Baltimore, MD), 1B Maxwell Costes (Maryland via Baltimore, MD)

Boston Red Sox: OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (hometown: Lexington, MA)
In most years, this would be a difficult exercise, and I'd be looking for a second or third rounder to give the Red Sox. In this case, we have numerous options, though I did have to stretch a bit to get them a New Englander at pick #4. Sal Frelick probably fits better about five to ten picks later, but the Red Sox did under-slot Nick Yorke last year so this wouldn't be entirely out of the question. Frelick isn't a big guy at a listed 5'9", but his game is as loud as it gets. He shows a plus hit tool that enables him to not only make extremely consistent contact in the zone, but also easily spoil and even put in play bad pitches outside the zone. When he does connect, the Lexington native shows real power that should be at least average in pro ball. He's also a plus runner with a solid arm, and he plays the game with plenty of energy. Also noted as one of the best athletes in the class, he can handle center field or even second base if necessary. It's really a down year for college bats, so Frelick's strong 2021 production has pushed him near the very top of the list.
Other options: 2B Cody Morissette (Boston College via Exeter, NH), OF Joshua Baez (Dexter-Southfield HS, Brookline, MA), RHP Sean Burke (Maryland via Sutton, MA), LHP Steven Hajjar (Michigan via North Andover, MA), RHP Mike Vasil (Virginia via Wellesley, MA)

Miami Marlins: C Adrian Del Castillo, Miami (hometown: Miami, FL)
Honestly, Adrian Del Castillo probably profiles much better with an AL team with a DH, but the DH is (hopefully) coming to the NL soon so we can give him to the Marlins at the sixteenth pick. Del Castillo is a Miami lifer who attended Gulliver Prep HS before heading a few blocks down Dixie Highway to The U, where he has blossomed into one of the best college bats in the country. Standing 5'11", he has elite feel for the strike zone and the barrel with possibly the most pro-ready bat in the class, just feasting on high-level ACC pitching throughout his career. He also packs a punch from the left side, showing at least average power if not above average, though to this point it's been just a little underwhelming in 2021. Del Castillo has the feel to catch and has worked hard to stick back there, but to this point, he lacks the athleticism or arm strength to be more than a fringy defender back there. If he has to move off the position, he's a little short for first base and a little slow for the outfield, hence why he looks better for a team with a DH.
Other options: RHP Andrew Painter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), RHP Irving Carter (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), C Rene Lastres (Calvary Christian HS, Fort Lauderdale, FL), OF Jay Allen (John Carroll Catholic HS, Fort Pierce, FL), OF Isaiah Thomas (Vanderbilt via Palm Beach Gardens, FL)

New York Mets/Yankees
Hitter: C Henry Davis, Louisville (hometown: Bedford, NY)
Rather than try to divvy up New York and New Jersey between Yankees and Mets country, we're just going to do them together giving a hitter and a pitcher. Henry Davis certainly won't be around when the Yankees pick at #20, and heck, the Mets would probably be ecstatic if he lasted until the tenth pick for them. It's an unlikely scenario, but we can dream, right? At Louisville, Davis has turned himself into arguably the top college bat in the class, absolutely tearing through ACC pitching as a sophomore (.372/.481/.698) and even moreso as a junior, where he's currently flirting with a .400 batting average and a .500 on-base percentage with plenty of power to boot. A product of Fox Lane High School in northern Westchester County, he shows plus raw power to go with a plus hit tool from the right side, which in layman's terms means he will be a middle-of-the-order threat in the big leagues. It's a simple, leveraged swing from a crouched stance in which he explodes out to the ball, yet remains completely under control with elite feel for the barrel. On defense, he possesses a cannon arm that can completely shut down the running game, while his glove is probably his only unremarkable tool (speed aside) at merely average. I don't expect him to be around for the Mets at pick #10.
Other options: C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), SS Danny Serretti (UNC via Berkeley Heights, NJ), C Pat Winkel (Connecticut via Orange, CT)
Pitcher: LHP Matt Mikulski, Fordham (hometown: Mohegan Lake, NY)
If Henry Davis is unlikely to reach the Mets at pick #10, then Jack Leiter (Summit, NJ) is downright impossible. We could have talked Chase Petty (Linwood, NJ) here, but that's a little bit too far south to call it a "hometown" pick. For that reason, we'll go a little deeper and throw out the possibility of Matt Mikulski, a rising arm for Fordham. Mikulski actually grew up in the same area as Davis in northern Westchester County, though instead of leaving the region entirely for college, he stayed close to home and came down I-87 to Fordham. There, he steadily raised his stock for three years before exploding as a senior this year, absolutely blowing away A-10 competition to rocket himself into Day One consideration. He likely won't be in play for either the Mets or Yankees in the first round, but if the Mets or Yankees want to save some money at pick #46 or #55, respectively, he could be their guy. Mikulski is a 6'2" lefty who has seen everything tick up half a grade this year, with his fastball jumping up into the upper 90's at times and settling in the mid 90's for innings at a time. His curveball and slider are both out pitches at their best, and he does add a changeup as well. The command has steadily improved from below average to solid average, which makes scouts much more confident he'll be a starter at the next level. The Mohegan Lake native's stock has a ton of helium right now, and a few weeks from now, the second round could look much more likely than the third.
Other options: RHP Shane Panzini (Red Bank Catholic HS, Red Bank, NJ), RHP Jacob Steinmetz (Elev8 Academy, FL via Woodmere, NY), RHP Pierce Coppola (Verona HS, Verona, NJ), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), LHP Justin Fall (Arizona State via Toms River, NJ)

Philadelphia Phillies: OF Benny Montgomery, Red Land HS, Lewisberry, PA
Eastern Pennsylvania/Southern New Jersey has one of its best crops of talent in a long time, so there are numerous local players who could end up in red Philly pinstripes either at pick #13, #49, or #84. We'll look at Harrisburg-area high schooler Benny Montgomery, who brings some of the loudest tools in the prep class. Montgomery brings huge raw power from the right side, producing elite exit velocities that make scouts sit up. Additionally, his plus-plus speed makes him an asset on both sides of the ball, and a plus arm as well could help him win some Gold Gloves in the outfield with a little refinement. For now, the hit tool is a little iffy, as Montgomery has a choppy right handed swing that he has been working to smooth out. Scouts are less worried because he's a cold weather bat, meaning he's had fewer reps to smooth himself out, and his work ethic is universally praised. Committed to Virginia, he should be expensive, but at pick #13 he might not require an above slot bonus.
Other options: OF Lonnie White Jr. (Malvern Prep HS, Malvern, PA), RHP Chase Petty (Mainland Regional HS, Linwood, NJ), RHP Michael Morales (East Pennsboro HS, Enola, PA), RHP Mason Black (Lehigh via Archbald, PA), LHP Anthony Solometo (Bishop Eustace HS, Pennsauken, NJ)

Tampa Bay Rays: C Luca Tresh, NC State (hometown: Safety Harbor, FL)
There are some other local first round prospects in Mississippi's Gunnar Hoglund (Hudson, FL) and Florida's Jud Fabian (Ocala, FL) and Tommy Mace (Lutz, FL), but I don't think either of the first two reach Tampa Bay at pick #28 and Mace doesn't seem to fit the Rays' draft strategy. We'll go with an NC State product here in Luca Tresh, but he's local. Tresh grew up in Safety Harbor and attended Clearwater Central Catholic, so he's a Pinellas County kid who could join Shane McClanahan (Cape Coral, FL) and Mike Zunino (also Cape Coral) as local products on the Rays. Tresh is a power hitting catcher who was in first round pick Patrick Bailey's shadow last year, but really hit his stride in fall practice this year and came out swinging – in his first eight games, half of which came against Georgia Tech and Miami, he hit .469 with more home runs (seven) than strikeouts (six). Though Tresh has come back down to Earth a little since then, he remains one of the top college catchers on the board in a pretty strong class in that regard. Any time you have a college catcher with legitimate power that he can get to consistently in games, you already have something fairly unique, and Tresh's glove is improving steadily as well. With a strong arm to boot, he's quickly becoming an extremely well rounded asset and should go off the board in the vicinity of that 28th pick.
Other options: OF Jud Fabian (Florida via Ocala, FL), RHP Tommy Mace (Florida via Lutz, FL), OF Robby Martin (Florida State via Tampa, FL), LHP Jac Caglianone (Plant HS, Tampa, FL), OF Ty Evans (Lakeland Christian HS, Lakeland, FL)

Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Eric Cerantola, Mississippi State (hometown: Oakville, ON)
Canada can be very hit-and-miss, and this year, there isn't much in terms of Canadian talent at the top of the draft. Mississippi State righty Eric Cerantola is one of the only Day One prospects from north of the border, but he's definitely an interesting one that should go off the board somewhere in the second round range, possibly early third round. The Blue Jays don't pick between #'s 19 and 91, so I don't really see them having a crack at him unless bonus demands push him down, but anything can happen in the draft. Cerantola is a big righty coming in at 6'5", and his hockey background makes his mound presence that much more imposing. Right now, the stuff is the calling card, with the Oakville native bringing a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch the upper 90's in relief, a true plus curveball that might be the best in the draft when it's on, and an above average changeup. However, the pitchability traits are still catching up to the stuff, as he has little feel for the strike zone and seems to be "aiming" his pitches rather than truly commanding them. That leads to significant relief risk that will make him a serious stretch at pick #19, though the stuff is so loud that I really don't see him being available at #91 regardless. Cerantola attended Ecole Secondaire Catholique Sainte-Trinite for high school.
Other options: 2B Tyler Black (Wright State via Toronto, ON), RHP Ben Abram (Oklahoma via Georgetown, ON), C Joe Mack (Williamsville East HS, Williamsville, NY), RHP Calvin Ziegler (TNXL Academy, FL via Heidelberg, ON), RHP Cedric De Grandpre (Chipola CC via St. Simon, QC)

Washington Nationals: LHP Brandon Clarke, Independence HS, Ashburn, VA
Northern Virginia has produced its fair share of draft talent recently, even if it hasn't been the most exciting crop. J.B. Bukauskas, Tommy Doyle, Khalil Lee, and Joe Rizzo make up the most recent names, while the next could be lefty Brandon Clarke. Clarke, hailing from the same hometown as Bukauskas but a different high school, has been rising this spring after returning healthy from Tommy John surgery. His fastball has gained a tick and now sits in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97, while his breaking ball and changeup have gotten good reviews as well. It's a really loose delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, so all signs point to him continuing to grow into his game and keep bringing those starter traits along. To this point, I haven't been able to find video of him since returning from that surgery, but the Nationals are never one to shy away from prep arms and he could be in play at the 47th pick or the 82nd pick if he falls due to signability away from an Alabama commitment.
Other options: OF James Wood (IMG Academy, FL via Olney, MD), LHP Andrew Abbott (Virginia via Republican Grove, VA), 1B Wes Clarke (South Carolina via Lynchburg, VA), SS Ethan Murray (Duke via Crozet, VA), 3B Zack Gelof (Virginia via Lewes, DE)

2021 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at pick #11 (April update)

Back in February, before the season started, I highlighted ten players I could see the Nationals taking with the eleventh overall pick. Now in April, a lot has changed, so I'll spare the introduction that can be found in the original article and hop right into it. With nearly three months to go, a lot can and will still change, but here is where things stand now. Ranking on my most recent top 75 in parentheses.

RHP Ty Madden, Texas (#11)
2019-2020: 7-1, 2.81 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 63/28 K/BB in 67.1 IP.
2021: 4-1, 1.69 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 57/18 K/BB in 53.1 IP.
As I mentioned last time, this one really fits with the Nationals' drafting style. Ty Madden is your traditional, tall, consistent right hander with no glaring flaws to his game. His low to mid 90's fastball has topped out at 99 this spring, and he commands it well to both sides of the plate. He adds a slider that is usually at least average and flashes plus, as well as a consistently above average changeup. Combine three at least above average pitches with consistent command and a durable frame, and you have a prototypical starting pitcher. As he's continued to stay healthy and pound the strike zone, worries have faded over his slightly funky arm action that features some stab in the back, and instead focus on the "old school" steep plane on his pitches. Coming from straight over the top, his VAA (vertical approach angle) is difficult to lift with a traditional hitting approach, but won't miss as many bats as a flatter, Jack Leiter-esque fastball. Still, with an excellent spring that has featured seven consecutive starts of at least six innings and no more than two runs or three walks, he's as safe a bet as anybody in this draft to become a mid-rotation starter, something the Nationals would love.

RHP Gunnar Hoglund, Mississippi (#8)
2019-2020: 6-3, 4.24 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 90/18 K/BB in 91.1 IP.
2021: 3-1, 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 78/16 K/BB in 49 IP.
Gunnar Hoglund was in the "other possibilities" section of this list last time, but a bump in velocity puts him squarely in the conversation for Washington at pick #11, if he even makes it out of the top ten. Despite touching 96 in high school, Hoglund was generally around 90 throughout his first two years at Ole Miss, instead focusing deploying his plus command. He threw an average slider that flashed above average, as well as a seldom-used changeup, but mostly pitched off that fastball by dotting it right where he wanted it. Even though we knew he had more velocity in the tank, it was still a back-of-the-first-round profile until he proved it. Well, in 2021, he proved it. I was at Globe Life Field in Arlington to catch his start against Texas Tech, where he came out throwing 94-95 in the first inning and now two months later, he hasn't looked back. Holding that same plus command, Hoglund is regularly in the low to mid 90's nowadays with an effortless delivery that screams durability. His slider has taken a big step forward and is regularly above average, flashing plus, and it's topping out around 87-88, which was the lower end of his fastball velocity a year ago. He's also broken out that changeup more often and it's looking like a solidly above average pitch as well. At this point, I would prefer the Nationals draft Hoglund to Madden, but he might not even make it this far if he keeps pitching like this.

RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (#3)
2019-2020: 14-6, 3.06 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 142/29 K/BB in 114.2 IP.
2021: 7-1, 1.88 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 73/14 K/BB in 48 IP.
Wait, what? Isn't Kumar Rocker supposed to be a candidate at 1-1? Well, his stock his slipping just a little bit right now. If the draft were today, he wouldn't make it to the Nationals at pick #11, but the draft is not today and he might be trending in that direction. For most of his time at Vanderbilt, the big righty has sat in the mid 90's with his fastball and touched 97-98 at the high end, but over his past few starts, that velocity has dipped pretty significantly into the low 90's. When you're talking about the very top of the draft, where teams are making potentially franchise-altering decisions, that's a big deal. There are teams wondering whether it's health related, fatigue related, or what, but he's going to want to answer that question definitively before July. Still, we're talking about a kid with great extension and a flat VAA (remember Madden had a steep VAA) that makes his fastball play above its velocity, and while his command is not pinpoint, he's been very consistent about landing the pitch for strikes (though the quality of those strikes has been nitpicked). He also adds arguably the best breaking ball in the class, an elite slider that crushes souls and could get big league hitters out right now. Rocker hasn't used his changeup as much, but it does flash above average. If his velocity comes back before the draft, it's highly unlikely he's available to the Nationals at pick #11, but continued fluctuations coupled with fastball command questions (i.e., hitting spots) could push him outside the top ten. So long as he stays healthy and nothing drastic happens, I see the Nationals as a potential floor for him.

SS Matt McLain, UCLA (#23)
2019-2020: 7 HR, .244/.306/.411, 7 SB, 77/21 K/BB in 74 games.
2021: 6 HR, .314/.411/.542, 4 SB, 20/19 K/BB in 29 games.
I mentioned Matt McLain as an option for the Nationals back in February, and after a relatively slow start to the season, he was trending away from this list. However, he's now picked up a hit in sixteen of his last seventeen games and at one point hit four home runs in four games against Washington and Stanford, pushing his name back into consideration here just outside the top ten. McLain has no one flashy tool, but is instead what you call a "gamer" – the kid can just play. Despite standing a skinny 5'11", his athleticism and strong feel for the barrel have enabled him to tap more and more power throughout his amateur career, and that power showed up with wood bats as well in an exceptional turn through the California Collegiate League over the summer. He has reduced the swing and miss in his game as well, dropping his strikeout rate from 25.7% as a freshman to 20.3% as a sophomore and 14.2% this year as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate climbed from 6.8% and 6.3% over his first two years to 13.5% this year. A strong athlete, he is also a plus runner and has an outside chance at sticking at shortstop, though his feel to play the position at a major league level is questionable and he might fit better at second or third base. Overall, we're talking about a kid who can impact a baseball game in a lot of ways, and for a traditional team like the Nationals, a 15-20 home run bat with relatively high batting averages and an infield glove sounds like a fit. An August birthday makes him relatively old for the class, and that turns off some teams, but the Nationals did pop fellow August baby Cade Cavalli in the first round last year.

OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State (#28)
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.
2021: 12 HR, .351/.486/.730, 9 SB, 23/24 K/BB in 31 games.
Colton Cowser, like his alliterative counterpart Matt McLain, was featured on this list back in February, and he's on a similar, if more extreme, trajectory. Cowser was excellent as a freshman (.361/.450/.602) but never really got going in his shortened sophomore season (.255/.379/.364), then got off to a slow start in 2021 that caused many in the industry (myself included) to sour on him a bit. I actually dropped him as low as #41 at one point. However, he clubbed four home runs in two games against Northwestern State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to bust out of that slump in a big way, then later homered in five consecutive games against Central Arkansas, Texas A&M, and New Orleans. Now that he's hot again, there is a lot to like in this profile. Ty Madden's high school teammate has a very strong feel for hitting, something he showed on a national stage with the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019. He has a flat left handed swing that is more geared for line drives than fly balls, but he finds that barrel extremely frequently against the so-so Southland Conference pitching he faces at Sam Houston State. With a wiry 6'3" frame, it's easy to see him tacking on a bit more power, though he will need to tinker with his swing to get there consistently against pro pitching. Cowser, like McLain, is a plus runner, though as an outfielder he's working to prove he can stick in center field. In a year without many viable college bats, a guy like Cowser who can impact the game in a lot of ways sticks out.

OF Sal Frelick, Boston College (#12)
2019-2020: 6 HR, .332/.428/.486, 25 SB, 22/33 K/BB in 54 games.
2021: 5 HR, .360/.438/.576, 8 SB, 15/16 K/BB in 30 games.
Here's a new name. Coming into the season, Sal Frelick was an interesting back-of-the-first-round type who could impact the game in a lot of ways (that's three straight players I've used that verbiage for) but didn't necessarily stick out. Halfway through the season, boy does he stick out as arguably the second best college position player out there (at this point, there's probably no catching Henry Davis). The Massachusetts native has been blasting the ball around the field with ferocity this season, finding the barrel extremely consistently with elite bat to ball skills and wiry strength. In the past, he's often sold out for contact by putting bad (but successful) swings on bad pitches, and this year he's doing more damage and getting his "A" swing off more often. Described as a "ridiculous athlete," he plays a great center field with plus speed and could even fit at second base if needed. Some teams might be scared off by the size in this part of the draft, but that would be foolish and Frelick has every chance to become an impact, every day center fielder with 15-20 home run power (perhaps more), high on-base percentages, and plenty of stolen bases. Between McLain and Cowser, Frelick is probably the least likely to still be on the board when the Nationals pick.

RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK] (#16)
This might be a bit of a reach unless they under slot him, but I do want to include a couple of high school pitchers for a team that has a history with them (see Mason Denaburg, Lucas Giolito). Jackson Jobe is an extremely interesting pitcher out of the Oklahoma City high school ranks, and could give the Nationals a second straight first round Okie pitcher after Tulsa-native and Sooner star Cade Cavalli last year. Relatively new to pitching, the 6'2" righty was better prospect as a hitter until a huge summer on the showcase circuit as a pitcher last year. He has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90's in short stints and gets up to 95-96, but the real story is his slider. While Kumar Rocker has the best breaking ball in the college class, Jobe's slider is the best in the high school class with ridiculous spin rates well north of 3000 RPM's. Its bite is late, it's tight, and it's just a wicked pitch overall. He also adds a curveball and a changeup that flash above average, and by staying healthy and filling up the strike zone this spring, he has added confidence that he'll stick in the rotation. Jobe is old for the class and will turn 19 slightly after the draft, but even if that did bother the Nationals, the fact that he's relatively new to pitching should offset it. He is committed to Ole Miss but in the top half of the first round, I don't expect him to be too expensive.

RHP Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA] (#29)
Same deal as Jackson Jobe here – this would probably be a reach unless he signed well below slot, but the Nationals aren't afraid of high school pitchers and Bubba Chandler seems like a guy they would like. Pitching at Kumar Rocker's alma mater near Athens, Georgia, Chandler is a ridiculous athlete who is actually committed to Clemson to play quarterback as well. If you follow college football at all, you know the enormity of that distinction – kid's a stud. Heading into the spring, it seemed unlikely that his projected second to fourth round draft range would deter him away from Dabo Swinney's program, but he's had some of the most helium of any high schooler in the country this spring. Does that push him all the way up to the Nationals at pick #11? Probably not, but we can still discuss it. Chandler is a 6'3" righty with a fastball that has leapt into the mid 90's, touching 97, and his command has held solid as well. He adds a sharp curveball that looks like one of the best breakers in the class at its best, a new slider that brings a more horizontal look, and a changeup that is quickly becoming a weapon in its own right. Combine that with obviously immense athleticism and you have a very, very interesting arm to buy early in the draft. That Clemson commitment will make him very expensive if he were picked closer to the back of the first round, but here at the eleventh pick you could probably under slot him.

SS Kahlil Watson, Wake Forest HS [NC] (#7)
We'll finish up with a couple of bats. While Bubba Chandler might be a reach here, Kahlil Watson might not even make it to pick #11 with the way he's trending. If he is available, the Nationals would be smart to snatch him up. Though Raleigh-Durham is Braves country in reality, his hometown of Wake Forest, NC is technically closer to Washington than it is to Atlanta and I'll call that a hometown pick. Watson is a loud player in every sense of the word, but the first thing you notice is his swing. He generates tremendous torque from the left side with a vicious uppercut, giving him plus raw power despite a smaller 5'9" frame. Despite the ferocity of his swing, it's a controlled operation and he's made consistent contact both on the showcase circuit and this spring in North Carolina. Watson also showcases plus speed that makes him a threat on the bases, and combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop. A high-energy player that is fun to watch on the diamond, he has face-of-the-franchise upside if he reaches it. For now, he's probably just outside that top tier of high school hitters (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House) just due to a hit tool that's more average than above average, but he could very well be gone anyways in the top ten. He's committed to NC State and will be expensive.

OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
This one would really be a hometown pick, as James Wood grew up in Olney, Maryland, about twenty miles due north of Nationals Park. He attends the famed IMG Academy down in Florida along with numerous other 2021 and 2022 draft prospects, where he's actually their second best draft prospect behind 2022's Elijah Green. Wood is a towering 6'6" slugger who can absolutely punish a baseball when he connects, but the separating factor is actually his hit tool. He makes surprisingly easy contact for a hitter so big and so strong, identifying balls and strikes well against elite competition. That makes him all the more dangerous and has earned him comparisons to Zac Veen, who went ninth overall to the Rockies last year, though Wood has more present power. He's an easygoing kid who plays the game with an ultra-low heartbeat, somewhat the opposite of Kahlil Watson above him on this list, letting his play do the talking. For now, he's a good athlete as well who can actually handle center field, but he'll likely slow down as he ages and right field is probably the best fit with his cannon arm. Wood has true middle-of-the-order upside as a kid who could hit 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Committed to Mississippi State, he will likely be an expensive sign.

A few other possibilities
RHP McCade Brown, Indiana
OF Christian Franklin, Arkansas
C Luca Tresh, North Carolina State
RHP Chase Petty, Mainland Regional HS [NJ]
C Harry Ford, North Cobb HS [GA]

Updates on those mentioned last time

RHP Richard Fitts, Auburn (#43): 0-3, 7.71 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 16/6 K/BB in 18.2 IP.
Fitts had a chance to pitch himself into top ten consideration with a strong spring, but instead he lost his rotation spot at Auburn as he's proven more hittable than expected despite filling up the strike zone relatively well. Analytics-driven teams will still like his high spin fastball and pair of nice secondaries, but because he hasn't proven he can start, he figures to go closer to the back of the first round at best.

LHP Steven Hajjar, Michigan (#56): 1-0, 2.80 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 42/10 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
It's been a much stronger season for Hajjar than for Fitts, but Hajjar was a long shot two months ago and hasn't taken the step forward he needed. His velocity is still relatively fringy around 90, peaking into the low 90's, which isn't enough this early in the draft. He has promising secondaries and has thrown more consistent strikes in 2021, so he'll still be a strong option in the second round, perhaps even for the Nationals at pick #47.

RHP Jaden Hill, Louisiana State (#37): 2-3, 6.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 25/12 K/BB in 29.2 IP.
It's been an unfortunate season for Jaden Hill at every step of the way. A potential top five pick coming into the season, concerns started to crop up when his slider proved more inconsistent than expected and he failed to miss as many bats with his fastball as some scouts had hoped. Then on April 2nd in a highly touted matchup against potential first overall pick Jack Leiter, he walked off the field holding his elbow and ended up needing Tommy John surgery. It is truly remarkable how Jaden Hill has transformed himself as a pitcher over three years in Baton Rouge, but now with two season-ending injuries in three years and no consistent track record of starting, it's really hard to project him as a long term starter in the big leagues. I don't think the Nationals would bite at #11, but if he slipped to #47 in the second round, I could see them paying him well above slot to sign.

3B Alex Binelas, Louisville (#40): 7 HR, .231/.319/.496, 2 SB, 30/12 K/BB in 30 games.
It hasn't exactly been smooth sailing for Alex Binelas. After taking the ACC by storm as a freshman (.291/.383/.612), he played just two games a sophomore due to a broken hand. Healthy in 2021, he struggled mightily out of the gate with just one hit in his first six games against relatively weak competition. He's since shown glimpses of the star he was as a freshman, including a four game stretch against NC State, Western Kentucky, and Notre Dame in which he went 9-15 with three home runs, but overall he just hasn't been able to recover the stock he lost with those early season struggles. Combine that with a move to first base for Louisville, and he fits closer to the back of the first round at best right now.

RHP Andrew Painter, Calvary Christian HS [FL] (#26)
I considered including Andrew Painter on this list again this time around, but ultimately I opted for the two prep arms trending up (Jackson Jobe and Bubba Chandler) rather than one trending down. Painter's stock isn't crashing, per se, but he's no longer the consensus top pitcher in the class after a spring where his command has been a bit shakier than before and he's been hit a little harder. There's still a lot to like in a 6'6" right hander who can hit the mid 90's, adds a full arsenal, and shows well above average command at times, but not at pick #11. He could be an option for the Nationals at pick #47 if they want to sign him way above slot. He's committed to Florida and will want first round money no matter what.

SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS [GA] (#5)
Unlike the other names that I included last time but didn't this time, Brady House isn't slipping. Instead, he's continued to wow evaluators with his huge tool set and I think it's highly unlikely he gets to the Nationals at pick #11 unless his signing bonus demands are outrageous. If House goes out and lights up the pre-draft showcases like I expect him to, we'll see him go well within the top ten picks.