Thursday, July 24, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

The Phillies knew what they wanted in this draft and they went for it. Their first six picks were all college pitchers while their first eight picks were all pitchers of some sort, with ninth rounder Matthew Ferrara representing the first position player. Philadelphia also spent the first six rounds saving money, going at or below slot with each pitcher before unloading it all on seventh rounder Matthew Fisher. It is not the world's most exciting draft class, instead focusing on high probability major league pitchers, so while first rounder Gage Wood is the only player here with true "star" upside (unless they miraculously find a way to sign twentieth rounder Landon Schaefer), there's a good chance Phillies fans see many players from this class dotting the roster in a few years. As they have tended to do lately, they reached into their own backyard several times by drafting three players from the southern half of New Jersey, one from Delaware, and one from Pittsburgh. 
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-26: RHP Gage Wood, Arkansas
Slot value: $3.49 million. Signing bonus: $3 million ($492,000 below slot value).
My rank: #20. MLB Pipeline: #23. Baseball America: #18.
Getting Gage Wood near the back of the first round already feels like nice value for the Phillies, but getting him for half a million dollars below slot value feels like an outright steal. Wood did not take the typical route to the first round, though draft followers could compare his journey to Cubs 2022 first round pick Cade Horton. He spent his first two seasons as a reliever for Arkansas, taking a nice step forward as a sophomore, then jumped into the rotation this year as a junior. He exited his second start in February with shoulder problems, then got blown up by Texas A&M in his return two months later. However, he bounced back nicely with a strong, brief start against Florida and never looked back, gradually rising up draft boards to the fringes of the first round conversation by the time the College World Series came around. Taking on a red hot, cinderella Murray State club, he delivered perhaps the single best college pitching performance since Kumar Rocker's 19 strikeout no-hitter against Duke in 2019 – a 19 strikeout no-hitter of his own, just an eighth inning, two strike hit by pitch short of a perfect game. With seemingly no accessible college arms doing enough to push towards the middle of the first round, Wood was in a class of his own and the scarcity looked like it could artificially push him higher, so the Phillies are thrilled to get him at #26. It's big stuff headlined by a mid 90's fastball that peaks at 98 with angry riding life, absolutely devouring hitters at the top of the zone as it explodes towards the plate. He has a power curve in the low 80's with hard bite, a plus pitch in its own right, while his slider has taken a step forward and now appears average. At this point, he doesn't use his changeup much. Many pitchers with this kind of profile – power arms seeing significant upticks in their stuff while dealing with injuries – understandably wobble in their command. Wood, meanwhile, did not and has run just a 4.7% walk rate over the past two seasons combined. That's 125 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 78 innings. The 6' righty isn't all that tall, but he's very physical and is a bulldog on the mound, pounding the strike zone with a compact delivery and fearless conviction, holding his velocity deep into starts despite the injuries. Shoulder injuries are often much more complex than elbow and other injuries, so the Phillies will certainly be cautious with Wood despite his successful comeback in the second half of his junior year. If the injuries are indeed behind him, the Batesville, Arkansas native has a chance to follow Cliff Lee in the Arkansas prep -> Arkansas Razorback -> Phillies ace pipeline.

2-63: LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa
Slot value: $1.42 million. Signing bonus: $1.2 million ($219,100 below slot value).
My rank: #58. MLB Pipeline: #53. Baseball America: #193.
Scouts have a long history with Cade Obermueller. One of the better high school pitching prospects to come out of the state of Iowa in recent years, he ranked #124 on my 2022 draft list but decided to stay home and attend the University of Iowa in his hometown. A draft-eligible sophomore in 2024, he was more or less the same prospect he had been two years prior and found himself ranked #150 on my board that year, so he elected to return to school and see if he could put it all together. As it turns out, he finally did, improving his numbers and his stuff across the board. Obermueller now sits in the low 90's and touches 98, up a tick from last year, with tons of running life to avoid barrels. His best pitch is a massive sweeping slider that is looking more and more like a plus-plus pitch, diving across the plate and missing bats in bunches. While his fastball and slider crept forward in 2025, his changeup does remain a fringy third pitch and will be key to remaining in the rotation. Listed at an even six feet tall like Gage Wood, he's 35 pounds lighter and does not have the same durable look, though he did make 28 starts for the Hawkeyes over the past two seasons and has not had any significant health issues. Perhaps most importantly for his projection as a starting pitcher, his command took a big step forward in 2025 as he dropped his walk rate from 15.2% to 9.0%, marks roughly representing below average and average command, respectively. With a low three quarters, nearly sidearm slot, he has streamlined his delivery and can command not only his fastball but his slider as well to both sides of the plate effectively, reducing his reliever risk if his body continues to hold up. If his size and/or lack of a third pitch due force him to the bullpen, he simply becomes a fastball/slider sidearm reliever that will make for an extremely uncomfortable at bat, especially for lefties. Eligible in 2024, the Iowa City native turns 22 just after the publishing of this article and figures to move relatively quickly.

3-100: RHP Cody Bowker, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $765,400. Signing bonus: $700,000 ($65,400 below slot value).
My rank: #153. MLB Pipeline: #187. Baseball America: #98.
For their third straight college arm, Philadelphia turned to right hander Cody Bowker. Bowker began his career at Georgetown where he pitched to a 2.80 ERA over two years as a part time starter, then transferred to Vanderbilt and jumped full time into their rotation to moderate success. He works with a low 90's fastball that reaches 95, a little lighter than the other names in this Phillies class, but the pitch plays up due to his lower slot and the riding life he generates. He spins a short, sweeping slider that plays well off his fastball that could become above average in time, or he can tighten it into a cutter. There's a fringy changeup in the mix as well, but he mostly pitches off the fastball and slider. The 6'1" righty isn't huge but looks like he can stick in the rotation, with average command and a repeatable low slot delivery. The stuff is fairly light, but he has managed the success he has to this point with deception and feel for pitching as evidenced by a strong turn against top competition in the Cape Cod League (3.28 ERA, 36/7 K/BB in 35.2 IP). Bowker may be the type to sneak up prospect lists as he works through the minors and continues to keep hitters off balance as they struggle to pick the ball up out of his hand. If not, the Maine native could see his stuff tick up as a fastball/slider reliever from a tough slot. Overall, he is a very similar prospect to Cade Obermueller, just right handed with slightly lighter stuff.

4-131: RHP Sean Youngerman, Oklahoma State
Slot value: $567,000. Signing bonus: $564,500 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #154. MLB Pipeline: #116. Baseball America: #308.
Sean Youngerman ranked one space behind Cody Bowker on my board and he'll join the Phillies one round later. Like Bowker, Youngerman is a transfer who began his career at Westmont, an NAIA power in Santa Barbara. After two successful years with the Warriors, he transferred to Oklahoma State and eventually pitched his way into the Cowboys rotation. He works with a low to mid 90's fastball that reaches 97 with riding action, sneaking by hitters with late life that leaves hitters frustrated. His loopier slider and average changeup act more as change of pace offerings than true weapons in their own right, leaving him to rely heavily on the heater. Youngerman has a traditional over the top delivery and repeats it well, showing above average command that helped him walk just eight batters all season for an elite 3.9% clip. In fact, he did not walk a single batter in his twelve relief appearances before moving to the rotation in late March. The fastball quality, size, and command give him a chance to start even with his lack of quality secondary stuff. However, he will certainly need to take a step forward with his breaking ball at minimum, because even a well commanded lively heater is not going to fool a big league lineup three times in a row.

7-221: RHP Matthew Fisher, Memorial HS [IN]
Slot value: $257,700. Signing bonus: $1.25 million ($992,300 above slot value).
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #46. Baseball America: #104.
The Phillies saved money for six rounds to go nearly a million dollars over slot and sign Matthew Fisher away from an Indiana commitment. Fisher made his way onto the scene with a strong senior season that had many analysts projecting him in the top forty picks, and while he fell to the seventh round, his signing bonus was the second highest of the Phillies' class and roughly equal to that of the #69 overall pick. Fisher sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak with running action, though it can dip into the upper 80's at times. He shows good feel for spin with both a slider and a curveball that look above average, as does his changeup with good fade. The 6'3" righty creates some angle with his delivery and repeats it well, throwing all four pitches for strikes with average command. It's a big league body and a big league delivery with a big league pitch mix, all of which bodes well for his future as a big league starting pitcher. He'll need to build up his endurance and ideally grab another couple ticks in fastball velocity, but the ultimate product could be a starting pitcher with four above average pitches and above average command at peak. Fisher is a full year older than most of his graduating class, having turned 19 before his senior season of baseball even began. The Phillies are no stranger to that profile, as it was also the case with 2024 first round pick Dante Nori.

9-281: SS Matthew Ferrara, Toms River East HS [NJ]
Slot value: $197,600. Signing bonus: $597,500 ($399,900 above slot value).
My rank: unranked MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Matthew Ferrara was coming to the Keystone State one way or another, so the Phillies paid up to stop him short of a trip across the state to the University of Pittsburgh with a fourth round-caliber signing bonus. The first bat drafted by the team, he brings the upside you like to see in a prep shortstop and is trending hard in the right direction. Undersized through much of his high school career, he has gotten bigger and stronger as of late and has grown into real impact. It's a whippy, leveraged right handed swing that shows average raw power now but projects to get to above average in time. He's twitchy and strong and getting stronger. The hit tool is relatively unproven but the Phillies are convicted that he'll hit. As he's added strength, Ferrara has looked like a better fit perhaps at third base than shortstop, though he could end up at any number of positions around the infield. He's nearly fifteen months younger than Matthew Fisher and offers a little extra projection due to his youth. The Phillies see a potential 20 home run bat at the hot corner in a local kid who grew up just fifty miles east of Philadelphia in Toms River, New Jersey.

12-371: RHP Tyler Bowen, Lander
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Tyler Bowen gives the Phillies another semi-local kid, hailing from the small town of Dagsboro in Slower Lower Delaware just west of the more well-known beach resort Bethany Beach. Relatively unheralded out of Indian River High School, he headed south to Division II Lander University in South Carolina, a school which had just eleven players drafted in its history prior to this season (which is still not bat for a D-II school). Ironically, not only did Lander see two players go in this draft – they both went to the Phillies. Now, Bowen will join Montana native Richie Cortese working up through the system. Bowen has been a reliever for three years at Lander, where his power fastball sits mid 90's and touches 99 at peak with riding life. He adds a sharp curveball that looks above average when he gets it over the plate. The 6' righty is a pure reliever prospect with just the two pitches and below average command that led to a 19.0% walk rate over his first two years in Greenwood, though it dropped to a more playable 13.2% in 2025. He'll look to stay in the zone just enough to overpower hitters with his fastball/curveball combination. Set to turn 23 in the offseason, improved command could carry him quickly towards Philadelphia.

16-491: SS Logan Dawson, Eastern HS [NJ]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #218.
It's unclear if the Phillies will sign him, but they picked up a true hometown kid in the sixteenth round. Logan Dawson hails from Audubon, New Jersey, a Philadelphia suburb just across the river and attended Eastern High School in Voorhees Township. He grew up a Phillies fan and for his sake I hope a deal can get done. The Phillies have already spent virtually their entire bonus pool even before signing eighth rounder Brian Walters, though the 5% overage gives them nearly $400,000 extra if they choose to use it. If they do and Walters signs for a lower number, they could offer Dawson upwards of $500,000 to stay home rather than attend Boston College and that may be enough. He's three inches taller than Matthew Ferrara and bats left handed, but he otherwise has a somewhat similar profile. He generates great leverage on the ball and channels his strength into above average raw power, elevating with authority and looking to tap 20+ home run power down the line. He's a disciplined hitter too that should adjust well to pro (or ACC) ball from an approach standpoint, though his pure bat to ball is below average at this point. In a small sixteen game sample with Trenton in the MLB Draft League, he walked in nearly a quarter of his plate appearances but struggled mightily with contact, leading to a wacky .097/.310/.097 slash line. Pitchers at the next level will attack him in the zone knowing his contact concerns and that walk rate will drop unless he can find a way to make more in-zone contact. He has shown well at shortstop to this point and should stick there in the short term, though long term he is more likely a third baseman. Dawson is old for the class and was already 19 on draft day.

18-551: RHP Matthew Potok, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
One last local guy for the Phillies. Matthew Potok grew up just ten miles from Matthew Ferrara, attending Jackson Memorial High School in Jackson, Central Jersey. Coastal Carolina recruits well from that area and brought him down along with Orioles comp pick Caden Bodine (Haddon Heights), where he worked his way into the rotation full time by his sophomore year in 2023. After missing 2024 with Tommy John surgery, he returned as a key reliever for the College World Series Finals-bound Chanticleers, though he appeared just twice in the month of June. Potok sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 96, working between a riding four seamer and a sinker. He shows an average slider with short, tight break, having added power in his new bullpen role and now reaching the upper 80's at peak. There is a sparsely used changeup as well, but as a reliever, he lived more on the fastball/slider combination. While he doesn't throw nearly as hard as Tyler Bowen above him on this list, he shows above average command and has run very low walk rates throughout his career. He will have success in pro ball by repeating his simple delivery and consistently staying ahead of hitters in the count. If he can grab another tick or two on his fastball, even better.

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Cleveland Guardians

Full list of draftees

I always enjoy writing the Guardians' draft review because they always draft interesting players, and this year was no different. With four of the top seventy picks, including three picks in a seven pick span at #64, #66, and #70, they also had more draft capital than most other teams in the back of the first round. Usually a team to chase athletic, up-the-middle contact hitters, they pivoted this year to take hulking sluggers in both the first and fourth rounds as part of a class that began with six hitters in their first seven picks. After successfully injecting significant offensive upside into their system, they pivoted to pitching beginning in the sixth round and took eleven pitchers with their final fifteen picks, giving their lauded pitching development system plenty more clay to work with. Interestingly, there are a lot of buy-low candidates in this class (beginning with first rounder Jace LaViolette), a profile Cleveland has targeted with some frequency lately.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: OF Jace LaViolette, Texas A&M
Slot value: $3.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #23. MLB Pipeline: #20. Baseball America: #17.
Few teams draft as consistently on-brand as the Guardians, yet this first pick went against virtually everything they've ever targeted. Besides being known for drafting and developing a ton of arms, Cleveland's type is very well known when it comes to position players – young (often prep), up the middle talent with strong bat to ball even at the expense of some power. Jace LaViolette is, well, not that. Standing all of 6'6", 230 pounds, he showed up to his first fall practice in College Station back in 2022 and virtually from day one stood out as a potential superstar. He lived up to the hype, blasting 21 home runs to set a Texas A&M freshman record in 2023 before cranking it up a notch with 29 home runs and a .305/.449/.726 slash line in 2024. Widely considered a frontrunner for the first overall pick entering the season, he instead took a step back in 2025, dropping to "just" 18 home runs while his batting average fell to .258. LaViolette is a big, tall slugger. It's a tremendously forceful left handed swing that has produced plus-plus raw power in the past, though it played closer to "just" plus in 2025, and he can send the ball out to any part of any ballpark. Still, he prefers to go to the pull side with a swing designed to lift the ball to right field. Many try, but LaViolette overwhelmingly succeeds at doing so – a skill that is highly correlated to major league slugging success. This will enable him to tap every bit of his prodigious raw power in games going forward. The big issue here, of course, is strikeouts. They were already a concern in 2024, when he struck out 24.2% of the time, and he actually rose to 25.2% in 2025. That's high. The Houston-area product offsets the swing and miss a bit with an extremely patient approach that forces pitchers to come into the zone and led to a sky high 21.8% walk rate in 2025, but pro pitchers will pound him in the zone and his below average bat to ball skills will be tested. Cleveland does not need him to be a .300 hitter. Rather, he needs to make just enough contact to get the ball up in the air and run into his fair share of home runs. There are many similarities to Yankees prospect Spencer Jones, another towering left handed slugger who struggled mightily with swing and miss. Jones, who was drafted in a similar spot at #25 overall out of Vanderbilt in 2022, has been extremely streaky in the minors but has been red hot in 2025, now knocking on the door of Yankee Stadium. Also similarly to Jones, LaViolette is a very good defender for his size. He runs well underway once he gets that big frame moving and looks to be above average in right field, where his strong arm will be an asset as well. There has been some talk about him getting a shot in center field, where he saw the bulk of his time in College Station the past two seasons, and sticking there would be a very nice bonus to the profile. All in all, there is 30-40 home run upside here with high on-base percentages if he can clean it up inside the strike zone, with a high side outcome looking something like a more athletic Adam Dunn (likewise a Houston-area native).

2-64: SS Dean Curley, Tennessee
Slot value: $1.38 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #35. MLB Pipeline: #60. Baseball America: #39.
Dean Curley is another very interesting buy low pick. A Southern California native, he immediately hit his way into the Tennessee starting lineup as a freshman (though the age of a college sophomore), positioning himself as a potential first round pick in 2025. He got off to a hot start and his name started coming up in top ten conversations, but he faded just a little bit as the season wore on and scouts seemed to sour on his projections. Personally, I still see a very solid prospect here and I think he is great value in the back of the second round. Curley has a big league frame at 6'3", 220 pounds, maintaining a lean build while packing on plenty of strength. He channels that strength into a simple, efficient right handed swing that produces above average raw power, a grade that could get to plus as he continues to fill out. A patient hitter, he manages the strike zone well and regularly puts himself in counts where he can do damage, helping project for a potential average hit tool even if the pure bat to ball is a tick below. Much was made about his uneven sophomore season, but at the end of the day he still increased his home run total (12 to 14), improved each leg of his slash line (.285/.386/.502 to .315/.435/.531), and improved both his strikeout (17.5% to 16.0%) and walk (11.6% to 15.3%) rates over what was praised as a strong freshman campaign. Offensively, Curley projects as a potential 20+ home run hitter with middling on-base percentages. Defensively, there are question marks. He moves well for his size and has the athleticism and more than enough arm strength to handle any position on the field, including shortstop where he played almost every game in 2024 and saw some time in 2025. However, the biggest shadow on his 2025 season may have been a case of the yips. He routinely struggled to make basic throws and often looked like the game had sped up on him, which was not the case in 2024. The game will only get faster in professional baseball and he'll need to sink or swim if he wants to remain an infielder. The Volunteers moved Curley around to second and third base in an effort to get him more comfortable, and we'll ultimately see what the Guardians choose to do. If it really was just a one time case of the yips that can be cured with an offseason of low stakes training, he may very well end up a big league shortstop in the Willy Adames mold.

CBB-66: OF Aaron Walton, Arizona
Slot value: $1.32 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #144. MLB Pipeline: #161. Baseball America: #154.
Aaron Walton really, really quietly snuck up draft boards late, and even though I had him ahead of MLB Pipeline and Baseball America, I felt that I was probably under-ranking him and at least in terms of draft position that seems to be the case. He began his career at Samford and while he didn't set the world on fire, he showed enough for the Bulldogs to earn a transfer opportunity most of the way across the country at Arizona. It was there in Tucson that he blossomed into the day one pick he became, putting up better numbers against a tougher Big 12 schedule than he ever did against Samford's SoCon schedule. Walton lacks a carrying tool but does everything well. A relatively patient hitter, he will take his walks but doesn't miss an opportunity to put the ball in play, leading to a high on-base profile. The swing does get steep, but he adjusts well in and out of the zone and shows strong plate coverage. He's listed at the same 6'3", 220 pound height and weight as Dean Curley above him, and while he can't quite match Curley's above average power, he shows some thump from the right side and brings that power when he turns on pitches. In all, it's a profile that could produce 10-15 home runs annually with high on-base percentages. The Nashville-area product is just an average runner but he plays hard in center field and has a good chance to stick there, unless pushed off by a quicker defender. The median projection here is that of a fourth outfielder that can handle all three outfield positions and add some length to the bottom of the lineup, but the upside is an every day jack of all trades who hits a few spots below the middle of the lineup.

CBB-70: RHP Will Hynes, Lorne Park SS [ON]
Slot value: $1.19 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #163. Baseball America: #166.
Will Hynes was the first player drafted this year that had not been on my radar, and most publications had him pegged a few rounds later. While he may have flown under the radar here in the States, he was the talk of the town for Canadian scouts who saw his stuff take a step forward this spring. The fastball now sits in the low 90's and touches 95 at peak, playing above its velocity with significant running action that could make it a heat-seeking missile against right handed hitters as he adds more velocity. He is steadily gaining more feel for a high spin slider with nice sweep, average to above average much of the time but flashing plus at its best when he gets good finish on it. Hynes also throws a changeup with parachute action that has been inching forward, looking average for now with more in the tank down the line. The 6'2" righty has a very clean, easy delivery that helps him show above average command for a high school pitcher and should enable him to naturally add velocity as he fills out. Born triple sevens on 07/07/07, he's young for the class and has that much more time to grow as a pitcher. While Hynes might not have the explosive stuff or the same high upside as other high school draftees in the same draft range, the Toronto-area native comes more pro ready than most and could grow into a mid-rotation starter. He had been committed to Wake Forest and while the Guardians drafted him earlier than many expected, it was rumored to be a firm commitment and he still may be expensive.

3-101: OF Nolan Schubart, Oklahoma State
Slot value: $759,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #98. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #63.
I mentioned that first rounder Jace LaViolette was virtually the opposite of Cleveland's archetype, but Nolan Schubart might be even more extreme in that direction – at least LaViolette is a solid athlete with a chance to play center field early in his career. Like LaViolette, Schubart stepped onto campus already a highly touted prospect, then produced a huge freshman season in 2023 before setting the world on fire in 2024 with 23 home runs and a ridiculous .370/.513/.838 slash line. There's an argument to be made that opposing pitching coaches had a bigger circle around his name than any other hitter in the Big 12. Like LaViolette, 2025 was a bit of a step back from a production standpoint and while he had been projected comfortably inside the top fifty picks entering the season, he ultimately fell outside the top one hundred. Schubart, of course, stands out for his power. He blasted 59 home runs in three seasons in Stillwater with monster, plus-plus raw juice that he gets to every bit of in games. It all comes from a burly 6'5", 225 pound frame that generates elite bat speed and ridiculous torque, enough to send this baseball 517 feet to the opposite field. He's a very patient hitter that has drawn 139 walks over three years and 164 games, forcing pitchers to come into the zone and helping him put up a .464 on-base percentage in that span. Unfortunately, pitchers do have success when they hit their spots in the zone. His pure bat to ball is well below average, leading to elevated strikeout totals. He has a tendency to lean over the plate as the pitch is delivered to really channel everything he has into crushing the baseball, which can cause him to get tied up when he's not on time. The projection here is that of a potential 30+ home run hitter but with low batting averages. Joey Gallo is always the classic comp here, though something like Jack Cust is also possible if he can scare pitchers out of the zone enough and take his walks. Schubart will have to make contact because he provides little to no defensive value. He's a lumbering, well below average runner for which playing a fringy left field will be a best case scenario, with first base or full time DH a real possibility. If he can recapture some of what he showed in 2024, the Guardians will be just fine with him at DH. He hails from the small town of Durand, Michigan, sitting between Flint and Lansing but Cleveland fans will be relieved to know he left the state for Oklahoma State rather than attend Michigan.

4-132: 3B Luke Hill, Mississippi
Slot value: $561,400. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #98. Baseball America: #105.
While Jace LaViolette and Nolan Schubart bring extreme power-over-everything profiles, Luke Hill bears more in common with Aaron Walton as a more balanced, steady profile. Yet another highly regarded prep prospect, he began his career at Arizona State and hit well as a freshman, then transferred back closer to home to attend Ole Miss for his sophomore and junior seasons. While his 2024 was a bit quieter, he stepped things up in 2025 and emerged as one of the better all-around prospects in the region. He is a very professional hitter that walked more than he struck out in both seasons in Oxford, leading to a .459 on-base percentage against tough competition in 2025. He has solid bat to ball as well, making for an overall above average hit tool. There is some present strength in his sturdy 6'1" frame and which helps him produce average raw power at peak, though his simple right handed swing and level approach lead to fringier power in games and he'll likely top out at 10-15 home runs per season in the majors. The defensive profile is similar to the offensive one, with average tools across the board including a steady glove and moderate arm strength. With average speed, he should make all the plays at the hot corner and he has just enough arm to stick over there. He can also handle second base if needed. Overall, the Baton Rouge native projects as a steady utility infielder though he will be stretched at shortstop.

6-192: LHP Nelson Keljo, Oregon State
Slot value: $325,100. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #182. Baseball America: #350.
Jesuit High School in Portland, Oregon has become a pitching factory as of late, producing two recent first round picks in Mick Abel (2020) and Noble Meyer (2023). Sandwiched between the two of them (and teammates with both) in the 2022 graduating class was Nelson Keljo, himself a highly regarded prep pitcher drawing scouts of his own in his draft year. Keljo made it to Oregon State anyways, where he pitched out of the bullpen to strong results (especially in 2024) before moving to the rotation in 2025. He was more good than great, and the Guardians grab him here in the sixth round. The 6'4" lefty has a big arm, sitting low 90's and touching as high as 97 in short stints with riding life that makes the pitch play above its velocity and jump on hitters. He mixes in an average slider with downward plane, though he prefers to gas hitters up with the fastball to get strikeouts. Keljo also throws a solid changeup that has taken a step forward in Corvallis, now looking like a potential above average offering with further refinement. He's a big guy that uses his height more than his athleticism to work down the mound, and after running a respectable 7.3% walk rate out of the bullpen in 2024, that number ballooned to 12.9% in 2025. If he is to remain a starter, Keljo will need rein that command back in as well as bring his secondary stuff along if he wants to start. The good news is that the Cleveland organization is a great place to do that, or he could let his fastball tick up and lean on it in a bullpen role.

9-282: LHP Ryan Prager, Texas A&M
Slot value: $197,200. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #170. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #177.
Ryan Prager has taken a bit of a circuitous route to get here. A relatively unheralded prospect as an underclassman at Texas A&M, unlike many other names in this Guardians class, he spent his freshman season in the rotation before missing his sophomore year with Tommy John surgery. Returning in 2024, he burst onto the scene as one of the most dominant arms in the SEC and, despite lacking big stuff, found himself drafted in the third round by the Angels. However, the two sides could not come to a deal and Prager became the top unsigned college prospect to return to school, where he had large NIL deals lined up. Unfortunately, both he and the rest of the Aggies had a disappointing season, watching his ERA inflate by over a run while his strikeout rate dropped from 31.2% to 20.9% and his walk rate rose from 5.0% to 6.0%. In 2024, Prager pitched with a fastball around 90 that topped out around 94, lacking big velocity but playing up with ride through the zone. That fastball often lived in the upper 80's in 2025. He throws an average slider and a straight changeup, helping round out an arsenal that can really play up due to his plus command of the baseball. However, his struggles to miss bats this season highlight the small margin of error these light stuff-arms work with, as just a small step backward bumped him from the third to the ninth round. Set to turn 23 in October, he'll look to add that tick back to his stuff and perhaps become a back-end starter. The 6'3" lefty is plenty physical and figures to be durable in whatever role he takes on.

14-432: SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #439.
Anthony Silva represents another buy-low draft pick. One of the top prep prospects in the state of Texas in 2022, he withdrew from the draft in order to attend TCU and at first the move looked to pay off as he hit .330/.416/.471 as the Horned Frogs' starting shortstop as a freshman in 2023. Entering his draft-eligible sophomore season as a potential first round pick, he instead took a step backwards and found his name discussed more in the third to fifth round range. He instead elected to return to school, where he ranked two spots behind Ryan Prager as the #3 unsigned college prospect, but unfortunately did not have the bounce back season he was hoping for in 2025. Silva has shown to be an average hitter over the past two seasons. He's patient at the plate, but pitchers have attacked him in the zone more often due to his lack of impact and he falls behind in counts too often. There is solid bat to ball, enough to keep his strikeouts reasonable, though it has regressed as his strikeout rate rose from just 12.5% as a freshman to a combined 18.1% over the past two seasons. Always wiry and skinny, a portion of Silva's draw as a prospect stemmed from the projection in his 6'2" frame that could help him grow into average or better power in time. That power never materialized and the seven home runs he hit as a freshman remains his career high, and at the point he projects to average about ten home runs per season at the big league level. The San Antonio native still brings value on defense, where he projects to stick at shortstop. Depending on when you saw him, you could have seen a steady, fluid defender with plenty of range to be an above average defender there, though he has been just a bit stiffer over the past couple seasons. Overall, if Silva can recapture his freshman magic, he has a shot to be a high contact utility man at the big league level. He turned 22 shortly after the draft.

15-462: RHP Evan Chrest, Florida State
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #315.
Evan Chrest burst onto the scene with a huge freshman season as Jacksonville's ace, but he took a step back in his sophomore season as his strikeout rate dropped and his ERA more than doubled. Florida State still came calling, and he came out with three strong midweek starts (including one against his former team) before leaving his fourth start with an elbow injury, ending his season. Chrest sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 95 at peak, not overwhelming velocity but enough. The fastball plays up due to riding life through the zone and a low release, causing it to jump on hitters and sneak over bats at the top of the zone. He throws both a true sweeping slider and a tighter cutter, while his changeup shows nice fade to the arm side and gives him a fourth reliable pitch. He's a good athlete that repeats his delivery well and shows above average command when healthy, giving him a real chance to start. On the flip side, he'll need to prove that health coming back from his elbow injury and at an even six feet tall, he's not the largest starting pitcher in the world. The Tampa native could see his stuff take a step forward in the bullpen, though that would feel like a waste of his deep arsenal. The Guardians are certainly a good organization for him to sneak up on analysts and come out as a late draft success story.

Monday, July 21, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

The Mets found themselves in a similar position to the Yankees in that they had their first pick moved back ten spots due to salary overages then lost their second round pick after signing Juan Soto. While the Yankees elected to splurge a little on their first pick then play the rest of the draft conservatively, the Mets went in the opposite direction. They immediately saved over a million dollars in bonus pool space with their first two picks, both bats, then spread those savings around into several over slot deals on young pitchers they found interesting. I'm personally intrigued by their work here and I think this could become a sneaky good class when all is said and done despite severe bonus pool limitations.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-38: 2B Mitch Voit, Michigan
Slot value: $2.57 million. Signing bonus: $1.75 million ($819,400 below slot value).
My rank: #67. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #149.
It's not the loudest pick the Mets could make to start of the draft, but Mitch Voit does a lot of things well with a quietly complete profile and more upside than you might expect. A two-way player during his first two seasons in Ann Arbor, he pitched nearly one hundred innings with a 4.67 ERA while also seeing significant time at first base, second base, third base, and the outfield. Focusing on hitting only in 2025, the decision paid off as he put up a career year at the plate with 14 home runs and a .346/.471/.668 slash line in 56 games. A disciplined hitter, he walked (15.3%) more than he struck out (13.0%) in 2025 while showing average bat to ball skills, helping him project as a potential above average hitter at the next level. His tight right handed swing helps him shoot the ball to all fields with authority, and while he's not the biggest guy on the field at an even six feet tall, he shows average power that he taps in games. As a potential .270 hitter with high on-base percentages and 15-20 home run upside, it's a really well-rounded offensive profile. He's also a plus runner and a strong athlete, adding to his upside. Voit hasn't settled into one primary position just yet, though the Mets drafted him as a second baseman and he has the actions and speed to be at least average there. Having reached 92 on the mound, he also has plenty of arm to slide over to third base if needed. Lastly, the Milwaukee-area product is extremely young for the class, not turning 21 until the end of the season, and could continue to see his broad toolset tick upwards. Honestly, I feel that I under-ranked him a bit and that he should have been closer to the top fifty on my board. Voit did make headlines back in March for pretending to do a line of cocaine off the third base line as a celebration for hitting a triple, which is extremely funny but also understandably problematic. His $1.75 million bonus is more than $800,000 below slot value and saved the Mets a ton of money to go after other expensive prospects later in the draft, which was especially helpful given their lack of a second round pick.

3-102: SS Antonio Jimenez, Central Florida
Slot value: $752,000. Signing bonus: $564,000 ($188,000 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #172. Baseball America: #406.
This is a really interesting pick, with the Mets picking up a talent that probably fits better here at his draft position than he did back where most public boards had him ranked. Antonio Jimenez began his career at Miami, then spent the summer in the Cape Cod League hitting a nondescript .203/.322/.383 with a 25% strikeout rate. He transferred to UCF for his sophomore season and exploded as Drew Faurot's replacement at shortstop, rocketing up draft boards. There is a ton of talent here. Listed at 6'1", Jimenez shows sneaky plus raw power that shows up more in scorching line drives than regular home run power, but he did knock five on the Cape and eleven in Orlando and figures to produce upwards of twenty or more annually at the big league level if he can get his swing right. The power plays better to his pull side, but the ball jumps off his bat. He can get a bit aggressive at the plate, but he mashes inside the strike zone with above average pure bat to ball ability. If Jimenez can stay within himself at the plate, swing at good pitches, and trust his power, he has the ingredients to be a real offensive contributor in Flushing. The Miami-area native also brings value on the defensive side of the ball. His athleticism and body control help him make all the plays at shortstop, while his plus-plus arm strength helps him throw out runners on all kinds of plays in the hole or on the run. It remains to be seen whether he'll be steady enough with the glove to stick at shortstop long term, but the fallback is as an above average defensive third baseman with a cannon arm. Jimenez did not get enough love before the draft, including from myself as I did not get around to researching him, and makes for a sneaky good pick here in the back of the third round for the Mets. As a draft-eligible sophomore, he'll be relatively young coming in and only turned 21 in June.

4-133: RHP Peter Kussow, Arrowhead Union HS [WI]
Slot value: $555,800. Signing bonus: $897,500 ($341,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #201. Baseball America: unranked.
After saving over a million dollars on their first two picks, the Mets began to unload those savings here by giving Peter Kussow close to the slot value of the #88 pick here at #133, steering him away from a Louisville commitment. You'll be hard pressed to find many prep pitchers with a better combination of size, projection, and physicality in this class. Kussow is listed at 6'5", 205 pounds, already looking the part of a big league arm with room to fill out even further. He presently sits in the low 90's and touches 97 with a running, riding fastball that could be a plus pitch as he continues to add velocity. His slider has diced up prep hitters in bunches this spring. It can be inconsistent and probably grades out at above average because of that, but he can rip through some nasty ones that dive late at the plate and give him plus projections. He mainly pitches off those two pitches, but there is a changeup in there as well. Kussow has a long arm swing and his command comes and goes, so the Mets will look to streamline his delivery a little bit and get him more consistent with everything, both from a stuff and command perspective. There is a chance he ends up a fastball/slider reliever, but the Mets see the upside of a potential mid-rotation starter here.

7-223: RHP Cam Tilly, Auburn
Slot value: $254,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($143,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #229.
The Mets went a bit over slot value to bring in Cam Tilly, an extremely talented arm who is yet to put it together at Auburn. Tilly was a well-known prep prospect that ranked #168 on my board in 2023, but made it to campus for the Tigers. He spent his first season and a half in college as a reliever, then earned six starts at the end of the 2025 season to middling results. The fastball sits low 90's and has reached as high as 97 in short stints, a solid pitch that won't jump off the page but gets the job done. He stands out most for his slider, a banger breaking ball with late two-plane break diving away from right handed hitters. Tilly can also work it into a curveball to give hitters a different look, while his splitter gives him another potential average or better pitch when he rips it right. The Evansville, Indiana-area product has a relatively simple delivery with nice extension down the mound, but strikes have been an issue as he works to get more consistently on line to the plate. Plenty physical, the 6'2" righty looks the part of a durable starting pitcher if he can tie things together. The four pitch arsenal goes a long way towards aiding in that projection, but he'll have to tie his command together better in order to get there.

8-253: RHP Camden Lohman, Ft. Zumwalt North HS [MO]
Slot value: $213,200. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($584,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #220. Baseball America: #490.
Taking much of the rest of their savings from Mitch Voit and Antonio Jimenez, New York spent over half a million above slot value to pry Camden Lohman away from an in-state Missouri commitment with a bonus about the slot value of the #96 pick. Like Peter Kussow, Lohman is a big, physical right hander from the Midwest. The 6'4" righty saw a velocity spike this spring, adding about three to four miles per hour to his fastball and reaching 97 in bullpen sessions, regularly touching 95 in starts and sitting low 90's. He adds a pair of solid breaking balls in a short slider and a more traditional curveball, while his changeup has come along this spring. With a simple, repeatable, over the top delivery, he shows good command for a high schooler. Lohman doesn't necessarily stand out in any individual way besides perhaps his height, but his combination of increased velocity, a deep arsenal, big league size, and a sound delivery makes him a higher probability starting pitcher than most prep arms. The Mets will look to continue to bring out sharper stuff as he matures.

9-283: SS Anthony Frobose, Lakeland HS [NY]
Slot value: $196,800. Signing bonus: $390,000 ($193,200 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Yankees went local in the ninth round, Yorktown Heights native Anthony Frobose out of Lakeland High School in extreme northern Westchester County, just under forty miles straight north of Flushing. This over slot signing was a bit more modest as a ninth rounder going for early sixth round money instead of heading to Rutgers. Frobose is more of an upside play than anything else. A two-way player, he's been up to 94 on the mound with a deep slider, but the Mets drafted him as a shortstop and it appears they'll keep him that way. He creates great leverage with an explosive, powerful right handed swing, giving him a shot at above average power in the future despite a slight 6'1", 170 pound frame. He was standing a bit more upright this spring and drifted into more deliberate load, something the Mets may want to smooth out. There is more conviction in the power than the hit tool for now, though New York believe he has what it takes to step up against pro pitching as he smooths out that right handed swing. Frobose's athleticism also shows at shortstop, where he has a plus arm and good body control to channel his arm strength on line towards first base. Having turned 18 shortly after the draft, he is on the younger side for the class and the Mets will likely move him more slowly than other prospects. There is considerable upside here for under $400K, but he is also pretty far away from that ceiling.

12-373: RHP Truman Pauley, Harvard
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $400,000 ($250,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #435.
The largest bonus of the back half of the Mets' draft, Truman Pauley got early sixth round money to sign here in the twelfth round and cost a quarter of a million dollars against their bonus pool. Pauley is an interesting prospect. A native of Pacific Palisades in Southern California with an interest in model rocketry according to his player page, he travelled across the country to follow his grandfather and great grandfather to Harvard. A full year older than most of his graduating class, he reached Cambridge the age of a college sophomore and was therefore eligible and age appropriate after two years with the Crimson. His 2025 got off to a rough start with a 7.11 ERA and an 18.8% walk rate through his first seven outings, but he turned it around in a big way with a 2.56 ERA and a 53/21 strikeout to walk ratio (12.3% walk rate) over 38.2 innings to close out the season, including a thirteen strikeout complete game against Columbia in his final outing. Pauley gets it done with a huge fastball that sits in the low 90's and touches 96, but plays way above its velocity due to elite riding life. That pitch alone makes him a very interesting player development project for the Mets. Beyond that, he has a solid downer slider that misses bats as well as a curveball and changeup, though he primarily pitches off the first two. For now, the command is way behind everything else and will be the primary factor holding him back. The Mets will need to streamline his delivery and get him more comfortable at his newfound high velocity band, and from there he could develop in any number of directions. New York undoubtedly loves the trajectory he's on with the strong finish to the season, and while his post-season Cape Cod League numbers didn't pop off the page, he did run a respectable 9.7% walk rate in the smaller 15.1 inning sample.

16-493: RHP Zack Mack, Loyola Marymount
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Hands down the best name in this Mets draft class, Zack Mack gives the Mets some sneaky upside near the back of the draft. A Houston-area native, he began his career at local powerhouse San Jacinto JC (Zack Mack at San Jac, say that five times fast) but missed his freshman season with Tommy John surgery. Over the next two seasons, he pitched his way into more attention, ultimately transferring west out to Loyola Marymount in Southern California. The result was a solid season for the Lions highlighted by a ten strikeout, no walk performance against San Francisco in April. Mack sits low 90's and touches 96 with a riding fastball, playing well at the top of the zone. He can drop in a big 12-6 curveball or tighten it up into a short, tight gyro slider, and both miss bats. There is also a splitter in there. The 6'5", 240 pound righty comes with plenty of size and while he was mostly a reliever at LMU, his size and arsenal point to a potential future in the rotation. The command was streaky but at one point he walked just one batter in a span of ten appearances (19.2 innings). A senior sign, Mack will turn 23 in October but could be an interesting piece going forward.

Friday, July 18, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

The Yankees were supposed to pick #29, #65, and again after the second round as compensation for losing Juan Soto, but they wound up with just the #39 pick instead due to a combination of salary overages and the signing of Max Fried. That left them with the smallest bonus pool of any team – less than $5.4 million, all together just about the slot value of a mid-first round pick – and very little flexibility to get creative with this draft. That's how it went, with a very straightforward class that neither played many games around over and under slot bonuses nor chased high upside. After starting with a pair of shortstops, they moved into a fairly pitching-heavy class the rest of the way with 13 pitchers over their next 19 picks. Highlights of the class of course include first rounder Dax Kilby, an all-around ballplayer with a chance to play a steady role in the Bronx for a long time, Bronx native Richie Bonomolo Jr., the sons of former MLB infielders Jeff Kent and Mark Grudzielanek, one of the most effective sliders in the country coming from Blake Gillespie, and a 6'8" JuCo arm in Hayden Morris.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-39: SS Dax Kilby, Newnan HS [GA]
Slot value: $2.51 million. Signing bonus: $2.8 million ($290,500 above slot value).
My rank: #52. MLB Pipeline: #62. Baseball America: #75.
Two years after drafting George Lombard in the first round, the Yankees went back to the prep ranks for a similar prospect in Dax Kilby. Besides having an elite baseball name, Kilby is a darn good player and a scout favorite. Hailing from the town of Newnan on the outskirts of the Atlanta metro, also the hometown of legendary country music singer Alan Jackson, Kilby has long been a known commodity but has really come on strong in the past calendar year. He's beginning to fill out a lean, physical 6'2" frame and thereby adding impact to his already polished game, pushing his stock over the top into a first round selection. He hits from a simple setup that translates into a leveraged left handed swing, helping him drive the ball with authority to all fields and, increasingly, over the fence. It's a disciplined approach that helps him consistently find pitches to drive even against advanced competition, and now that he's impacting the ball more, it could translate into 15-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. An above average runner, he showed very well at the MLB Draft Combine not just with his hitting but for his speed and athleticism, adding to the heat behind his name. At this point, Kilby is not a lock to stick at shortstop, as he's not quite as explosive as other top defenders in the class and his more deliberate style on ground balls may fit better at second or third base. Still, he should hit enough wherever he ends up, and overall projects as a well-rounded addition to a future Yankees lineup. He had been committed to Clemson but figures to sign for a large bonus, perhaps $3 million-plus, with the Yankees here.

3-103: SS Kaeden Kent, Texas A&M
Slot value: $744,400. Signing bonus: $744,400.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #185.
The Yankees' first college selection of the draft comes in the form of Kaeden Kent, another infielder with solid tools across the board. The son of 2000 NL MVP Jeff Kent, Kaeden worked a part time role at Texas A&M and showed well over his first two seasons. Spending 2025 as the Aggies' starting shortstop, he posted good-not-great numbers amidst an extremely disappointing season for the Texas A&M club as a whole. Kent shows below average raw power, but his ability to whip the barrel through the zone and elevate the ball to the pull side helps that power play up a bit in games, ending up with 13 home runs in 2025. He likely won't threaten twenty home runs in the majors, but his left handed bat will play well at Yankee Stadium and he could provide 10-15 home runs per season at peak. Kent's hit tool is where he shines, with strong plate discipline and bat to ball helping him walk (14.7%) more than he struck out (13.9%) against A&M's difficult schedule. It is a pro-ready bat that also handled tough Cape Cod pitching very well back in 2023 (.329/.405/.430), though the numbers dipped in his second year there in 2024 (.257/.328/.333) and he didn't perform well in SEC play either this spring. Defensively, the Austin native has seen time all around the infield projects to be at least capable at any position despite fringy speed, with a sound glove and enough arm to make most of it work. In an every day capacity, he probably fits better at second or third base, but in the reserve/platoon role he's likely destined for at the major league level, he can handle shortstop on an occasional basis where needed.

4-134: LHP Pico Kohn, Mississippi State
Slot value: $550,300. Signing bonus: not yet announced.
My rank: #130. MLB Pipeline: #122. Baseball America: #168.
This feels like an arm that the Yankees will get the most from. Pico Kohn was a known commodity at Chilton County High School in Central Alabama, but made it to campus at Mississippi State and showed well out of the bullpen as a freshman in 2022, though Tommy John surgery wiped out his sophomore campaign. Joining the rotation in 2024, he earned some draft interest but ultimately went back to school, where some rough outings inflated his ERA but he ultimately showed well enough to become a priority senior sign. Kohn sits in the low 90's and touches 95, modest velocity these days, though the pitch plays up a bit with flat plane from a deceptive slot. An above average slider is his best pitch, getting nice dive across the plate and missing a ton of bats in 2025, while he has shown some feel for a changeup to give him a third big league pitch. Kohn's command has improved considerably in Starkville and now looks average, which combined with an athletic 6'4" frame and a repeatable delivery gives him a chance to start at the major league level. He'll turn 23 right at the start of the offseason and will want to move quickly, but he's advanced enough to do so as a tall, seasoned three pitch lefty. The Yankees have done well with similar arms and figure to add him to the back of their rotation at some point in the next couple of seasons.

6-194: RHP Rory Fox, Notre Dame
Slot value: $319,800. Signing bonus: not yet announced.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #288.
Rory Fox has long been a do-it-all athlete who has gradually narrowed his focus over the last few years. A state champion quarterback at Catholic Memorial High School in the Milwaukee area, he focused on baseball at Notre Dame where he was initially recruited as a two-way player. He never got to hit much and more recently took to pitching only, leading to a very strong 2025 in which he eventually pitched his way into the Friday night (ace) role. Fox sits in the low 90's with his fastball and touches 96, showing some riding life negated by a higher release point. He can cut the fastball a little or turn it over into a true slider, a pair of pitches that often served as the key to his success, while a less used curveball and changeup round out a full arsenal. While he doesn't get great extension down the mound, Fox's athleticism helped him stick around the zone with fringe-average command. That athleticism combined with his big league 6'3" frame and deep arsenal gives him the chance to become a #4 or #5 starter, but he could surprise and rise higher if he continues his upward trajectory now that he's focusing on pitching only.

7-224: OF Richie Bonomolo Jr., Alabama
Slot value: $252,100. Signing bonus: not yet announced.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #358.
There haven't been many major leaguers from the Bronx lately, but the Yankees are looking to corner the market with Andrew Velazquez and now Richie Bonomolo Jr. Bonomolo grew up in the shadow of Yankee Stadium, playing high school ball at Cardinal Hayes High School just half a mile down Grand Concourse, then went away to Wabash Valley JC in Illinois before transferring to Alabama for his junior year. He showed well in his lone season in Tuscaloosa, producing nearly identical chase, contact, and exit velocity data to Yankees third rounder Kaeden Kent. Bonomolo is undersized at 5'11", in contrast to the big, physical ballplayers New York likes to target, but takes big right handed hacks that allow him to show some moderate thump in games, likely enough for up to about ten home runs per season. His above average bat to ball ability and strong approach allow him to swing like that without running high strikeout rates, though most of the power is to the pull side and will likely always be that way. Bonomolo is an above average runner with excellent instincts in the outfield, giving him every opportunity to provide value in center field for the Yankees. The lack of power likely relegates him to a fourth outfielder role in the long run, where he should show well at all three positions.

9-284: RHP Blake Gillespie, Charlotte
Slot value: $196,600. Signing bonus: not yet announced.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #231.
The Yankees picked up a very interesting arm in the ninth round. Blake Gillespie began his career at Georgia, but struggled mightily to a 13.74 ERA over two seasons and transferred out to Charlotte for his junior year. To say he improved would be an understatement – Gillespie tossed an eleven strikeout no-hitter against James Madison in March, finished the season with the fourth most strikeouts (131) in all of Division I baseball (and in four fewer appearances than any of the names ahead of him), and ultimately won the AAC Pitcher of the Year award. He did so on the strength of his slider. It's a plus pitch with nasty, late dive that hitters constantly chase down out of the zone because they can't pick it up, and even if they do, they can't find the bottom. The Southwestern Ontario native leaned heavily on the pitch, throwing it more than his fastball, and hitters still couldn't hit it. He also adds a low 90's fastball that touches 96 with riding action, giving him a second potentially above average pitch. Gillespie will use his changeup against left handed hitters but mostly relies on the fastball and slider. His command improved considerably in 2025 as he ran just a 4.9% walk rate and now looks average. The 6'2" righty has a bit of an interesting delivery, as he follows a high leg lift with a really soft landing and short extension, almost like he's stopping his delivery halfway through and just tossing the ball in off his back foot. Given that he's up to 96, it's a testament to his arm strength and you can bet the Yankees will look to smooth that out a little and gain another tick or two on the fastball. Because he relies so heavily on his slider, it's easy to peg this as a relief profile, but the Yankees may try to develop him as a starter and bring that changeup along. It's a fun profile that the player development staff can get creative with.

19-584: RHP Hayden Morris, Blinn JC [TX]
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
This is an interesting one, though it's looking iffy whether he'll actually sign. Hayden Morris missed his freshman season at Blinn College due to injury, but came back this year and showed big stuff from a big frame. The fastball sits low to mid 90's and touches 97 at peak, playing up because he uses his huge 6'8" frame to extend down the mound and release the ball right in front of hitters. He has a tight low to mid 80's breaking ball that helped him miss bats, and in the end it helped him to a perfect 10-0 season with over 100 strikeouts for the Buccaneers. Command is a question right now post-surgery, but he looks durable and the longer he stays healthy on the mound, the more he should build up in that regard. Morris has a ton of upside with his size and arm strength, and if he signs, the Yankees will work to bring along the command as well as add a third pitch. He is just 20 years old and could return to Brenham for his redshirt sophomore season, where he'll be age-appropriate for the 2026 draft.

20-614: SS Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek, Southern California
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Bryce Martin-Grudzielanek has been a known commodity on the West Coast for a long time and will look to do the same on the East Coast. The son of former All Star and Gold Glove winner Mark Grudzielanek, Bryce began his career at UCLA but never saw the field, so he transferred to USC for his sophomore year in 2023. A steady performer when healthy for the Trojans, he'll depart a career .296/.377/.446 hitter over 136 games. He comes with the prototypical size at 6'3", 185 pounds, though that size has led to just modest power in Los Angeles. A relatively aggressive hitter, he does run into strikeout problems (22.3% in 2025) and will need to shore up the approach in pro ball. His glove will carry him after starting 59 of USC's 60 games at shortstop in 2025, with steady, confident actions in the dirt that will help him stick there long term. As the son of a longtime major leaguer, the Yankees will take the size, defense, and bloodlines and see if they can't develop Martin-Grudzielanek into a utility infielder.

Wednesday, July 16, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

Full list of draftees

The Dodgers did not get to pick until #40 this year after their first round pick was moved back ten spots, but as usual, they pulled together a very interesting class anyways. After going for more "high floor" types with their first two picks, they turned their attention to toolsy, data-driven projects for much of the draft and brought in a ton of upside even if it will require significant development to draw out. The college-heavy class includes plenty of size, with four draftees clocking in at 6'5" or taller and topping out with the 6'8", 235 pound Robby Porco out of West Virginia. 
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-40: LHP Zach Root, Arkansas.
Slot value: $2.44 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #34. MLB Pipeline: #42. Baseball America: #40.
The Dodgers like to target lanky flamethrowers with nasty stuff, and while they did some of that later in the draft, they broke their tendency here by bringing on Zach Root, who is built more in the Clayton Kershaw mold than the Tyler Glasnow mold (no, I am not projecting Root as a slam dunk first ballot Hall of Famer). It's more of a crafty lefty profile, but one that I really like and I think has become undervalued in today's game. Root began his career at mid major powerhouse East Carolina, then after productive freshman and strong sophomore seasons, transferred to Arkansas where he immediately jumped into one of the best weekend rotations in the country. A strong season, headlined by an incredible performance against then-#1 Texas on May 1st (8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 11 K), made him one of the better college arms available this year. Root does not have an overpowering fastball, sitting in the low 90's most of the time with average movement (though he can reach back for 97), but it plays up because of the rest of his profile. He can really spin the baseball with a big, diving curveball complemented by a tighter slider, while an above average changeup drops off the table when he gets it right. It's a true big league four pitch mix, one that keeps even advanced hitters off balance. The 6'1" lefty is a bit on the stocky side but looks durable and has been, throwing 221.1 innings in his three year college career. There is some Kershaw in his delivery as he reaches his glove over his head during a high leg lift, though he turns in towards second base to create a more rotational drive to the plate rather than driving straight down. It creates some funk that can make his stuff hard to pick up. The Florida native may not have the highest ceiling the Dodgers could have gone after, but he's a high probability back-end starter in the mold of a left handed Landon Knack. I like him.

CBA-41: OF Charles Davalan, Arkansas.
Slot value: $2.39 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #49. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #62.
It's weird to think about the Dodgers wielding a competitive balance pick, something created for small market teams get a leg up, but they acquired this one in the Gavin Lux trade over the offseason. And with that, they'll take a second straight first year Arkansas Razorback who transferred into Fayetteville with ties to the Fort Myers area. Strangely specific, but the Dodgers have their type. While Zach Root grew up in Fort Myers, Charles Davalan began his college career at Florida Gulf Coast University just across town before transferring over to Arkansas. Davalan was a bit of a revelation in Fayetteville, far outperforming his smaller stature and even the numbers he put up against weaker competition in the Atlantic Sun Conference. Listed at a modest 5'9", 190 pounds, he plays much bigger. He's an easy plus hitter with exceptional bat to ball skills that helped him strike out just 27 times in 65 games (just an 8.5% rate) while running contact rates around 90%, an elite mark. Not just a bat to ball guy, he smacked 14 home runs in 2025 while showing off solid exit velocities, giving him a chance to post average power numbers in pro ball. The quick hands and sneaky strength in his sturdy frame likely help him knock 10-15 home runs per season while posting high on-base percentages at the major league level. As it stands, the Quebecer's bat is ahead of his glove. He saw time at second base while at FGCU but played mostly left field for Arkansas, where his speed figures to help him show average there. He did see time in center field at Arkansas and the Dodgers would love it if he could stick there, but he should hit enough to provide value in left field as well.

2-65: RHP Cam Leiter, Florida State.
Slot value: $1.35 million. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #87. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #85.
Now this one feels like a distinctly Dodgers pick, and if they get it right, the rest of the league will be put on notice. Cam Leiter is a nephew of Al and Mark Leiter as well as a younger cousin of Jack and Mark Jr., so if the last name seems familiar, that's because it is. Beginning his career at UCF, he struggled to throw strikes but Florida State saw his explosive stuff and brought him in as a transfer alongside fellow UCF Knight Drew Faurot (now a Marlin). He announced his presence with thirteen strikeouts across five one-hit innings against Butler in his FSU debut, but his shoulder gave out after seven starts and he missed the entire 2025 season. Despite not throwing a competitive pitch since March 2024, the Dodgers are bullish on his upside and for good reason. Pre-injuries, Leiter's fastball sat in the mid 90's and touched 99 at peak, playing up further with good riding and great running life to explode past hitters. He has a hard, tight cutter/slider in the upper 80's that flashed plus when he was healthy, while his sharp 12-6 curveball has also flashed plus at times, albeit a bit less frequently than the slider. Additionally, he showed feel for a changeup that lacked consistency but still missed plenty of bats when he got it right. It's among the loudest four pitch mixes in all of college baseball, looking even louder coming from a huge 6'5", 235 pound frame. To this point, Leiter struggled with strikes during both his freshman and abbreviated sophomore seasons, but he moves well on the mound and his size and athleticism point towards better performance in that regard in the future. The Dodgers likely believe that it's just a matter of getting consistent innings, and if he had been healthy these past three years, he'd probably be closer to average command. The upside is tremendous as a starting pitcher with four above average to plus pitches, but he'll need to stay healthy and improve his command considerably to get there.

3-104: OF Landyn Vidourek, Cincinnati.
Slot value: $737,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #419.
Judging by the commentary around this pick, it is very apparent that Landyn Vidourek was a much more highly valued prospect in scouting and MLB circles than he was in mainstream baseball outlets. Traditional scouting might put him somewhere in the fifth to tenth round range at best, but strong underlying data and a loud batting practice at the MLB Draft Combine in June propelled him higher on model and data-driven draft boards, a category we are certain the Dodgers fall into. Despite Cincinnati moving up in competition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12, Vidourek has seen his numbers improve every year and put up a career year in 2025. He rips the barrel through the zone with incredible force, generating elite exit velocities and creating plus power in games. The local Cincinnati-area product also shows a very patient approach that will play up in pro ball, though he also swings and misses at a very high clip and struck out in 26.7% of his plate appearances in 2025. That, combined with a quiet showing in the Cape Cod League, creates some question over whether he'll make enough contact to produce at the pro level. Still, with his usable game power and plate discipline, he has two of the three attributes that make a great MLB hitter and only needs to make enough contact to make it work. At the same time, Vidourek is a plus-plus runner who stole 39 bases in 40 tries this season. The speed plays better on the base paths than it does in the outfield, but the raw quickness there does give him a shot to play center field. This is a high upside, boom or bust type that could wind up following a Spencer Jones path even if he's a bit smaller.

4-135: SS Aidan West, Long Reach HS [MD]
Slot value: $544,900. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #139. MLB Pipeline: #123. Baseball America: #169.
For their first of three high school selections, the Dodgers yet again reached across the country and grabbed Maryland prep Aidan West. While he lacks a standout tool at this point, he has impressed evaluators with his broad array of tools, athleticism, and physicality and looks the part of a future big leaguer. He's growing into some power from a strong 6'2" frame, and the ball is jumping off his bat with more and more authority. The bat to ball is very good, too, ensuring he'll get to that power in games once he learns to elevate a little bit more. For now, the Howard County native has a propensity to chase and needs more reps against higher quality pitching before he shores up his approach. The Dodgers may allow him to take it a little slower, but they have had success with these types and he could emerge a very well-rounded offensive threat in a few years. Drafted as a shortstop, he's an above average runner with the actions to stick in the dirt, though he's a little stiff for shortstop and may fit better at third base. They'll run him out at the former for now and see how it goes. West was committed to North Carolina State and figures to command a large bonus.

6-195: OF Mason Ligenza, Tamaqua Area HS [PA]
Slot value: $317,200. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #217. Baseball America: #378.
Two rounds later, the Dodgers will go with an even rawer talent in Mason Ligenza. Hailing from the tiny coal mining town of Brockton, Pennsylvania, he's all tools and upside without much polish. Ligenza stands 6'5" and has space to add two or three dozen pounds on his lanky frame. Already, he produces plus raw power from a violent left handed swing and could get to double plus with additional polish. He beat up on rural northeastern Pennsylvania pitching this spring, but looked overmatched on the showcase circuit with a raw approach and even more raw mechanics. The stride and swing get choppy, and he can get caught out in front of good breaking stuff or late for quality fastballs. As slow as the Dodgers may take it with Aidan West, they'll likely take it even slower with Ligenza. If the advanced development environment in the Dodgers system jumpstarts his career as expected, the physicality here could turn him into a thunderous power hitter in time. The Dodgers are buying his bat, but he also runs well and should be above average in an outfield corner going forward. One of the better commits the University of Pittsburgh has landed in recent years, he'll instead likely sign for a large bonus and head west.

8-255: RHP Jack O'Connor, Virginia.
Slot value: $211,700. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #246.
The Dodgers are buying low – really low – on a big time arm talent in Jack O'Connor. A blue chip recruit out of Bishop O'Connell High School in Northern Virginia, he immediately seized the spotlight as a freshman at UVA with an impressive freshman season that shot him near the top of way-too-early 2025 draft prospect lists. However, nagging lat issues limited him to just 28.1 ineffective innings (7.62 ERA) between his sophomore and junior seasons, and he underwent internal brace surgery on his UCL this spring that will continue to keep him off the mound in the near future. When healthy, the fastball sits low 90's as a starter and touches 98 in relief, while his hard cutter-slider gives him a real bat misser at the pro level. He also throws a curveball and changeup, which took steps forward during that strong freshman season. The 6'5" righty has a very short arm action that helps hide the ball, relying on his excellent arm strength to power baseballs into the zone. While he threw strikes at an advanced clip for a freshman back in 2023 and in a smaller sample in 2024, he struggled to get into a rhythm in that regard in 2025 as he instead focused on blowing the ball past hitters in his relief role. Given his lack of health over the past two seasons, he finds himself in a similar position to Cam Leiter in that he just hasn't been on the mound enough to build it up. He'll have a lot of work to do to become a big league starter, especially in a system as deep as this one, and may fit as a fastball/slider reliever depending on how he returns from surgery.

12-375: RHP Logan Lunceford, Wake Forest
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #145.
Logan Lunceford has seen his stock rise and fall a bit. Beginning his career at Missouri, he spent two full seasons in the Tigers' rotation and pitched to middling results, but Wake Forest saw the arm talent and coaxed him halfway across the country to Winston-Salem. As is the case with many pitchers in that program, his stuff took a leap forward and after five dazzling starts to begin the season (4-0, 1.33 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 51/9 K/BB in 27 IP) he found himself creeping into the top 100 conversation. However, he faded from there and finds himself here in the twelfth round. Lunceford is undersized at 5'10", putting everything he has into an extreme drop and drive delivery that produces low 90's fastballs topping out around 94. The pitch plays up due to its excellent riding life and missed a lot of bats, especially early in the season. He spins a curveball and slider that both show good depth, but they lack the power and finish to be true strikeout pitches at the major league level. His best pitch is perhaps its changeup, which takes a right turn before it reaches the plate and falls off the table, leaving hitters flailing. The OKC-area native shows decent command, but may have to choose between sharpening that command or reaching back for more velocity in pro ball given his slight frame and loud delivery. The Dodgers could choose to develop him as a back-end starter, especially if they can sharpen up one or both of those breaking balls, or he could see a velocity uptick in the bullpen and live closer to the mid 90's while dicing hitters up with that changeup in short stints.

17-525: RHP Sam Horn, Missouri.
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not yet signed.
My rank: #107. MLB Pipeline: #128. Baseball America: #221.
This is not a run of the mill seventeenth round pick – Sam Horn is a frontrunner to become the starting quarterback for the University of Missouri this fall. At any school that is impressive, but this is an SEC football program coming off a 10-3 season. Horn has been well known since his high school days in the Atlanta area, where he led powerhouse Collins Hill High School on both the baseball and football fields and was teammates with 2024 Heisman winner and 2025 second overall pick Travis Hunter. Unfortunately, Horn has barely seen either the football or baseball fields in Columbia as he's worked back from Tommy John surgery with just eight pass attempts and fifteen innings pitched to show in three years. Still, the talent is immense. His fastball sits low to mid 90's and has reached 98 with running action, while he has worked to tighten up a slider that is now looking above average. Given that he has barely been on the mound, he doesn't have much of a changeup and his command is very much a work in progress. The Dodgers are instead dreaming on his projectable 6'4" frame, supreme athleticism, and lack of experience that is likely holding back his production on the mound. It's unlikely that he signs here, and even if he does, he'll likely still go out for that QB1 role, but once (if ever) he gives up football, he could leap forward as a potential rotation stalwart. Of course, the A's thought the same thing with Kyler Murray and that didn't quite work out.

Monday, July 14, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review Index

Below you will find each of my thirty MLB Draft reviews, team by team with links. I will work in reverse order of the team's first pick, starting with the Dodgers and ending with the Nationals. You can find my full draft rankings here.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds
Cleveland Guardians (published 7/23)
Colorado Rockies
Detroit Tigers (coming soon)
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals (coming soon)
Los Angeles Angels
Los Angeles Dodgers (published 7/16)
Miami Marlins
Milwaukee Brewers
Minnesota Twins
New York Mets (published 7/21)
New York Yankees (published 7/18)
Oakland Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies (published 7/24)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
San Diego Padres (coming soon)
San Francisco Giants
Seattle Mariners
St. Louis Cardinals
Tampa Bay Rays
Texas Rangers
Toronto Blue Jays
Washington Nationals

Thursday, July 3, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Evaluating the Nationals' Options at the Top

The 2025 MLB Draft is upon us, and for the first time since 2010, the Nationals possess the first overall pick. It appears that two frontrunners have emerged – Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson – but nothing is ever certain in the draft. By my count, without having inside information, there are likely about five other names the Nationals are likely considering at the top. It's a class without a clear top prospect, as none of the draft's biggest names has done enough to separate himself this spring and every prospect comes with some sort of blemish, however small. We'll explore the seven options below.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Throughout the draft process, Ethan Holliday has been one of if not the most famous name in the class, and certainly so on the high school side. The son of former All Star Matt Holliday and brother of 2022 first overall pick and current Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, Ethan is a frontrunner to join his brother at the top. While his 2024 was more good than great, causing him to slip closer to the middle of the top ten prospects, he reasserted himself at the top with a strong spring blasting home runs left and right against Oklahoma high school pitching. Holliday stands out first and foremost for his power, easily plus from an ultra physical 6'4" frame reminiscent of his father. He's also a disciplined hitter with plenty of experience against top arms, though there is just enough swing and miss inside the strike zone to give some evaluators pause. Given the prodigious left handed power and a glove that will be enough to stick on the left side of the infield, likely at third base, it's clear that the Nationals aren't too concerned. He may not fly through the minors as quickly as his brother but he figures to be a star in the not-too-distant future. Brady House is at the beginning of his journey to establish himself as the team's long term answer at third base, but that's no reason to shy away from Holliday. One major factor here may be cost, as he does figure to be one of the most expensive players on the board with an Oklahoma State commitment in hand, where his uncle Josh is the head coach.

LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
While Holliday has been in 1-1 discussions for years, Kade Anderson has only pushed his way into the middle of the conversation very recently. He may not be the best at any individual thing, steady performance capped with a complete game shutout in the College World Series Finals have proven that the sum of the parts rival any pitcher in the class. Listed at 6'2", 185 pounds, he's not small but still isn't the most physical arm in the class. Instead of reaching back for 100, he is content sitting in the low 90's with riding action from an otherwise normal fastball profile. His curveball has tremendous snap and keeps hitters off balance to say the least, while his newer cutter/slider has worked extremely well in addition. Anderson's changeup has also taken a step forward, giving him a full four pitch arsenal which he has great feel for. The command is also above average, which when combined with strong feel for pitching and ability to execute gives him the look of a frontline starter. With a classic starting pitching profile and a track record of performance in the SEC, Anderson is *exactly* how you would draw it up when looking for Mike Rizzo's dream pitcher at the top of the draft. He has been compared to unassuming but quietly dominant lefty aces like Cole Hamels and Max Fried. He is every bit as likely as Holliday to be the Nationals' pick at the top of the draft.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Ironically, Ethan Holliday isn't the only son of a Major Leaguer, small town Oklahoma high school shortstop on the Nats' radar for their first pick. While Holliday and Anderson are the frontrunners, Eli Willits may represent the next most likely pick and was actually invited to Nationals Park for a pre-draft workout. While not quite as tooled up as his Stillwater counterpart, Willits represents a more balanced profile that leaves scouts unable to find holes. As you'd expect from the son of Reggie Willits, he brings a high baseball IQ to the field despite being one of the youngest players in the class. Willits is a switch hitter with an approach at the plate well beyond his years, boasting a long track record of showcase performance under his belt and little fear of older pitching. Standing 6'1", he has some power but doesn't project to be a slugger, with 15-20 home runs per season looking more likely alongside high on-base percentages. It's a similar story at shortstop, where he is a sound defender and figures to stick until a twitcher, more explosive defender pushes him to third base. His Oklahoma commitment (where he would play for his father) figures to make him an expensive sign, but likely a bit cheaper than Holliday.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Seth Hernandez is right there with Willits in terms of the top non-Holliday or Anderson frontrunners. No high school right handed pitcher has ever been the first overall pick, but Hernandez is no ordinary high school righty and the Nationals do seem to have some interest. Simply put, he's how you draw it up. Standing 6'4", he's an athletic specimen who could be an early draft pick as a shortstop if he wasn't such a good pitcher. The fastball has hit 100 several times and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, already giving him the look of a big league pitcher. His feel for spin was previously a bit of a knock against him, but he's sharpened up his breaking balls this spring and now looks to have a plus curveball and above average slider. The changeup has always been a weapon, giving him a full arsenal of big league pitches. While the command isn't pinpoint, Hernandez repeats his delivery well and hits his spots better than most high school arms, especially those with stuff as loud as his. High school pitchers, especially right handers, are among the riskiest picks you can make, but the Southern California product checks just about every box and will require much less development than most. He's committed to Vanderbilt and also figures to be expensive, but it seems that many of the teams picking immediately behind the Nationals are focused elsewhere and their main competition could come from teams picking outside the top five.

LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
If the Nationals go college pitcher, Kade Anderson is the clear frontrunner. However, Liam Doyle has arguably the loudest fastball in the country and I'm sure Mike Rizzo has checked in. The Angels, picking second, appear to be very interested and many mock drafts have him landing in Los Angeles. Doyle, a New Hampshire native, began his career at Coastal Carolina, transferred to Ole Miss for his sophomore year, then bounced to Tennessee as a junior this year. The fastball really ticked up and he wound up with one of the most eye popping seasons in the country, striking out a whopping 42.6% of his opponents on the way to an NCAA-second best 164 strikeouts, behind only Anderson's 180. The fastball steals the show in the mid 90's, peaking a 99, with explosive life through the zone that keeps hitters coming up empty even when they know it's coming. He has a traditional slider as well as more of a cutter, both above average pitches that will keep pro hitters off his fastball. While he doesn't use it as much, his splitter looks like it could be another solid pitch as he gains feel. While Anderson and Doyle both stand 6'2", Anderson is more of a string bean while Doyle brings a stockier build. He's not a great athlete and throws with some effort, creating some reliever risk, but pounded the zone with a solid 8.3% walk rate this year and held his velocity deep into starts. He could rocket to Nationals Park even though his edges are a littler rougher than Anderson's.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
A couple months ago, Jamie Arnold may have actually been a frontrunner for this spot alongside Ethan Holliday, but his star has faded just enough to push him closer to the back half of the top ten picks. Still, this is a loud profile and one the Nationals surely have watched closely all spring. Many a sidearming left hander has been compared to Chris Sale, and Arnold fits the bill. His low to mid 90's fastball reaches 97 at peak and runs hard to the arm side from his ultra low slot. The slider dives across the plate in the opposite direction, off the bat giving him two easy plus pitches that could get big league hitters out today. To reach his ceiling as a front of the rotation starter, he'll need to continue getting comfortable with his changeup, which is making progress but isn't quite at the level of consistency of his primary two pitches. Unlike most lefties with explosive stuff, the Tampa native also commands his arsenal very well, running a very solid 7.7% walk rate in 2025 and giving him a very well rounded profile. While he wasn't quite as electric down the stretch as some of the other college pitchers at the top of this class, his combination of stuff, deception, command, and handedness is hard to find. Arnold would likely be a bit cheaper than some of the names above him here and would enable the Nationals to spend big on a later pick.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Aiva Arquette is more or less the consensus top college hitting prospect in the class, with significant heat linking him to the Mariners at #3 or potentially even the Angels at #2. However, after drafting fellow college infielder Seaver King with their first pick last year, the Nationals do appear to be looking elsewhere for their pick at #1. Still, for an organization that has really, really struggled to develop bats, we shouldn't look past the possibility of Washington getting something relatively big league ready in that department. Arquette had a fantastic year at Oregon State and looks the part of a well-rounded prospect with few holes and plenty of upside. Standing 6'4", he has plus power and got to it consistently in 2025 as he showed the ability to elevate with authority. The hit tool is probably closer to average than plus, as he showed some in-zone swing and miss and can chase occasionally, but there is nothing glaring in that department and he still got on base at a .461 clip this year (and a nice .357 looking back to the Cape Cod League in 2024). He's big for a shortstop, but has impressed scouts with his actions there this spring and figures to stick at least at the outset of his career. If not, he'd be a well above average third baseman. In all, this profile is not too dissimilar to a right handed Ethan Holliday, with a bit better defense and a slightly less polished approach relative to his age group. Like Arnold and potentially Doyle or Willits, he could be a bit cheaper and save the Nationals some money for later rounds.

Dark Horse Candidates
At this point, I have a hard time seeing the Nationals selecting a player not listed above. That said, there are a few that have likely at least been brought up in draft room conversations in Washington and could conceivably fit the bill. Shortstop Billy Carlson, a teammate of Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, is a strong athlete with an elite glove. He has grown into more and more impact as he's matured, though he might be more of a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter at maturity. There are some parallels to Masyn Winn here and he likely finds himself closer to the back of the top ten picks. Right hander Kyson Witherspoon had a fantastic season at Oklahoma, running his fastball up to 99 while showing real feel for spin and keeping the walks way down. The Nationals likely feel that they can get similar upside in a left handed package, and Witherspoon may fall out of the top ten picks. Auburn's Ike Irish has been pushing his way up boards as of late, showing arguably the most potent bat in all of college baseball. It's very real power combined with strong bat to ball that makes him a virtual lock to hit at a high level in the big leagues. However, as a part time catcher who may fit better in an outfield corner, he doesn't fit the up-the-middle profile the Nationals and most teams seek at the top of the draft. Shortstop JoJo Parker has been another buzzy name late in the process, wowing scouts in Southern Mississippi with one of the most complete offensive profiles in the country. He's physical, shows above average power, and hits everything thrown at him. Like Ethan Holliday, he may slide to third base, but the bat is for real. He may not get out of the top ten picks. Lastly, this would probably be the biggest stretch in this dark horse section but UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner has quietly re-emerged as a premium pitching prospect. A 1-1 candidate before the season, he slipped back towards the middle of the first round as his stuff looked more ordinary, but he got hot down the stretch and is back to looking like himself. It's plenty of fastball up to 98 while his changeup might be the best cambio in the class. Bremner's slider isn't quite the wipeout pitch you look for at the top of the draft, but he makes up for it with above average command and a solid pitcher's frame. It's a traditional profile that fits the Mike Rizzo mold, though he likely fits just outside the top ten picks.