Sunday, July 28, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

There was no secret to the Yankees' strategy this year: college pitching, college pitching, and more college pitching. Each of the team's first seven picks were college arms from either the SEC or the ACC, though they certainly mixed up profiles within that demographic. Greysen Carter and his 103 MPH fastball with zero command represent one extreme, while Gage Ziehl and his pitchability/makeup over stuff profile represent the other (though I don't want to sell him short – he did hit 97). Many pitchers of course fell in between, with New York looking for strong combinations of stuff and physicality, hoping to bring in the next generation of starting pitchers.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-26: RHP Ben Hess, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $3.33 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($585,400 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #44. Baseball America: #38.
This was a bit of a surprising pick to start things off for New York, but Ben Hess brings considerable upside for a college arm and saved the team over half a million dollars against their bonus pool. After showing well as a freshman at Alabama in 2022, he impressed scouts with a red hot start to 2023 but got shut down with a flexor strain after seven starts. Fully healthy in 2024, he had an up and down season but showed enough ups to still sneak into the back of the first round. Hess is a mountain of a man at 6'5", 255 pounds, and he looks it. The arm talent is undeniable, beginning with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and has reached as high as 99 with impressive riding action. His plus curveball misses a ton of bats with power two-plane break, while his slider gives him another above average breaking ball. He has shown feel for a solid changeup at times, flashing above average, though he hasn't found it consistently in games. Everything plays up further because Hess creates great extension with his big frame and gets a lower release than you'd expect for his size, making for as complete of a profile as you're going to find, metric-wise. Of course, there's more to pitching than just stuff and size, and that's where the questions come in. The Downstate Illinois native has battled injuries throughout his career, with 2024 being his first fully healthy season in a long time. Meanwhile, and I would wager this is highly correlated, his command has fluctuated. He has shown average, even above average command at times, but he was much too inconsistent in that regard in 2024 and pessimists may put a fringe-average grade there. Personally, although he was technically healthy in 2024, I think he needs to string together a little more consistent time on the mound to really settle back into that groove after never throwing more than 36.1 innings in a season before. He'll certainly need to watch his conditioning going forward to withstand a pro workload, and if he proves durable, he moves well enough on the mound to get back to average, if not above average command in the long run. Combine that with his wicked stuff, and he could be, dare I say, an ace at the big league level. A lot does need to go right to get there, though.

2-53: RHP Bryce Cunningham, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $1.72 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($576,300 above slot value).
My rank: #46. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #39.
After grabbing Ben Hess for an under slot deal at #26 worth roughly the value of the #33 pick, they went almost exactly as high above slot value to grab Bryce Cunningham in the second round at #53, where his $2.3 million bonus was worth roughly the value of the #41 pick. Cunningham is a bit of a polarizing prospect, but an interesting one with upside for sure. After working as a swingman in 2022 and 2023, he moved to the rotation full time in 2024 to inconsistent results, producing some downright dominant outings while faltering in others. With Cunningham, it all starts with the fastball. He sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has reached back for as much as 99 in short stints while topping out closer to 97 in longer outings. Thrown with pretty good extension and a pretty low release point compared to his 6'5" frame, the pitch's above average riding action helps the fastball play up to plus, though its results were more good than great against top SEC hitters. He relies heavily on an excellent changeup with tremendous running action, a pitch with true plus potential as well. His slider is a bit behind, coming in with short, tight break that can tie hitters up with its mid 80's velocity but which overall projects as just a fringy to average pitch. It's a pretty compact, repeatable delivery from a big, durable frame, though his control is ahead of his command and like quite a few top Vanderbilt pitchers before him, he can get hit a little bit in the zone if he falls behind in the count or gets too comfortable. The Yankees are buying the size, special arm strength, and changeup here, with the hopes that they can figure something out with the breaking ball. If he can take a step forward in that regard while holding onto average command, he's a legitimate mid-rotation starting pitcher. Cunningham will look to continue what's become a line of Yankees pitchers from small towns in Alabama, joining David Robertson, Chase Whitley, and Clay Holmes off the top of my head.

3-89: RHP Thatcher Hurd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $838,900. Signing bonus: $837,400 ($1,500 below slot value).
My rank: #97. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #128.
Thatcher Hurd feels like a very Yankees pick. Considered a potential second round pick out of high school in Southern California, he instead removed himself from the 2021 draft so that he could attend UCLA alongside Gage Jump, a fellow Southern Californian and arguably the top high school pitcher in the country to spurn the draft that year. Both ended up having a change of heart, as Hurd transferred to LSU after his freshman season and Jump followed him to Baton Rouge a year later. Hurd was uneven in his sophomore year in 2023 but showed enough to push himself into the first round conversation, then struggled in 2024 and lost his spot a crowded Tigers rotation. The 6'4" righty has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 98 in short stints, at times showing big time riding life but at others flattening out a bit. His best trait is his feel for spin, with a pair of power breaking balls that flash plus at best with hard bite, though the slider is more consistent than the curveball and he didn't always show the feel to execute either of them how he wanted to in 2024. At this point, he doesn't really use his changeup. Hurd has a pretty simple delivery but doesn't always repeat it, leading to below average command and a 12.7% walk rate over the past two seasons. His stuff gets more hittable as he falls behind in the count and leaves it over the plate, which lead to his 6.55 ERA this year. The Yankees are buying his power fastball and excellent ability to snap off a hard breaking ball, hoping they can mold the rest of the profile into a starting pitcher or perhaps a power reliever. This profile reminds me a little bit of 2022 sixth rounder Chase Hampton, who is progressing nicely in the Yankees' system.

4-119: RHP Gage Ziehl, Miami {video}
Slot value: $606,700. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value, perhaps slightly above.
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #89. Baseball America: #110.
This might be my favorite pick in the Yankees' class if they can get him for a reasonable bonus. Gage Ziehl is an Upstate New Yorker, hailing from the outer Rochester suburb of Macedon, where he attended Penfield High School and earned an eleventh round selection by the Cubs as a senior. After spending three years at Miami and amassing 227.2 innings for the Hurricanes, he'll come back home to the Empire State. The. fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 97 with solid riding life, playing up a bit from a somewhat lower release point. He has great feel for his cutter/slider, which he can tighten up around 90 or manipulate to get more sweep in the mid 80's, which is still plenty hard. It's an above average pitch. There's also a changeup in there with some promise, but he doesn't use it too much just yet. For Ziehl, everything plays up because he pounds the strike zone with conviction, going right after hitters and challenging them with his solid stuff. He shows plus command on top of that, which more than makes up for his stuff being more above average than plus, so he can really execute in the zone. Scouts rave about his competitiveness as well. Sturdily built at 6', 225 pounds, he lacks projection but still looks like a bona fide #3/#4 starting pitcher who can eat plenty of innings, which he's done with 31 starts and 192 innings over the past two seasons at Miami. This pick somewhat reminds me of 2021 second rounder Brendan Beck given Ziehl's pitchability and competitive fire, though while Beck looked brilliant in his short healthy stint in 2023, he has battled injuries for a long time and has just those 34 pro innings to his name.

5-152: RHP Greysen Carter, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $440,100. Signing bonus: $440,100.
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #226. Baseball America: #161.
Greysen Carter is virtually the opposite of Gage Ziehl as a pitcher. While Ziehl has been as steady as they come as a stalwart member of the Miami rotation, Carter was once cut from the Vanderbilt team because he simply could not throw strikes. He worked his way back onto the team and has since spent the last two seasons serving as a swingman, albeit to uneven results with the same poor command. Carter's stuff is undeniable. The fastball sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103, and it seems like it's coming even harder than that because he gets over six and a half feet of extension. He rips off a power curveball that looks like an above average pitch when he locates it, but he lacks feel to land it in the zone. The changeup, perhaps unsurprisingly, comes in a little too firm and again he lacks true feel for it. The command, as mentioned, is well below average and he has walked nearly 20% of the hitters he's faced in college, with his 16.4% rate in 2024 representing a career-best. Carter did throw one gem against Missouri in late March, allowing just four baserunners and one unearned run over 8.1 innings while striking out eleven, but that turned out to be his only outing of the season of greater than four innings. Carter's arm strength does not grow on trees. In fact, it really doesn't grow anywhere. The Yankees are getting a truly special arm talent here, albeit one in need of significant refinement. He's probably a reliever when it's said and done but you never know with guys like this – he lacks the command and secondaries, but at 6'4", 235 pounds, it's not like the Denver-area product lacks the physicality or arm strength to start.

6-181: LHP Griffin Herring, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $339,600. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($457,900 above slot value).
My rank: #165. MLB Pipeline: #157. Baseball America: #172.
Griffin Herring, a draft-eligible sophomore who turned 21 in May, signed for more than double slot value in the sixth round for third round money (close to pick #92). He showed well out of the LSU bullpen as a freshman in 2023, then was quietly one of the most reliable arms in the SEC in 2024 while again pitching out of the bullpen due to LSU's crowded rotation. Although he's a two-pitch bullpen guy, he does have a good chance to start in pro ball. The fastball is not overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 95 with more run than ride, though it plays up because he gets above average extension towards the plate. He throws an above average slider nearly as much as his fastball, which itself plays up because he has great feel to locate it to both sides of the plate. Herring is sturdily built at 6'2" and repeats his delivery well, showing above average command of both pitches and effectively maximizing his results with his pitching savvy. If the Yankees want him to start, he'll have to add a changeup and prove his command can hold together in longer stints.

7-211: RHP Wyatt Parliament, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $265,800. Signing bonus: $199,350 ($66,450 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #478.
The Yankees got another New Yorker here, and Wyatt Parliament comes from wayyy upstate. He hails from tiny La Fargeville, population 733, which is located eighty miles north of Syracuse and fifteen miles north of Watertown/Fort Drum, close to the Canadian border. He began his career at Rutgers, where he served as both a starter and a reliever but struggled with consistency. Transferring to Virginia Tech after two seasons, he struggled to a career-worst 7.63 ERA in 2024 but his peripherals point to the potential for much stronger performance. So does the stuff. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has gotten up to 97, but it plays way above its velocity with riding and running life and a low release point. In fact, it's probably one of the sneakier fastballs in the class. He also shows a solid slider with some sweep, which plays well when he locates it but too often gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. At this point, he doesn't show much of a changeup. Parliament has long arm action and a three quarters arm slot, creating both a funky look and a much lower release point than most pitchers at hist 6'4" stature. Additionally, while many fastballs can run like his in that slot, few ride as much as his and that makes it really tough to square up the fastball up in the zone. Additionally, Parliament pounds the strike zone, showing average command of both his fastball and slider, though the control is ahead of the command. To top it off, he's extremely young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until January, making him nearly nine months younger than true sophomore Griffin Herring. I think the 7.63 ERA was both a fluke and potentially a usage issue and that he could become a legitimate fastball/slider reliever for the Yankees.

11-331: RHP Mack Estrada, Northwest Florida State JC {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: likely well above that that if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #273.
$115,900. It's unclear whether Mack Estrada will sign, but it appears that the Yankees have some money to offer him against a Florida State commitment. With only fourth rounder Gage Ziehl, Estrada, and 20th rounder Cole Royer unsigned, the Yankees have $722,600 left in their bonus pool and over $1.1 million if they use the 5% overage. Assume Ziehl signs for slot value and those numbers become $115,900 and $406,725, respectively, so the Yankees could likely offer Estrada around half a million dollars so long as Ziehl doesn't go too far above slot value. Estrada showed well as a freshman at Northwest Florida State, especially early in the season, though he faded down the stretch a bit. While the fastball touched 96 early on, it settled more in the low 90's as the year progressed, coming in with heavy, late running life. He tosses a solid slider with great finish to miss bats, while his changeup is coming along as well. With long arm action and a bit of a raw delivery, he struggled with command at times as well. Estrada has projection remaining in his 6'4" frame and will need to build up his durability in order to start in pro ball, but the Yankees think they can get him there as he has both the stuff and size to start.

14-421: 2B Austin Green, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #303.
The Yankees picked up a well-rounded bat here in the fourteenth round. Austin Green began his career at Weatherford JC in Texas, then after two seasons transferred to Texas Tech where he was one of the Red Raiders' best hitters in 2023 and 2024. While he lacks a carrying tool, he also lacks many true weaknesses. With a compact 6' frame, the switch hitter unleashes a pair of simple but powerful swings to drive the ball to all fields effectively. He has average raw pop that he taps in games, with the potential for 10-15 home runs per season at peak. He also makes plenty of contact and takes professional at bats, helping him run a minuscule 9.7% strikeout rate in 2024. He won't be a star or hit fourth at Yankee Stadium, but it's the kind of profile that can sneak up on you and earn every day playing time towards the bottom of the lineup if he keeps hitting up the ladder. The East Texas native is also a solid runner who has played mostly second base and right field during his time in Lubbock, with the ability to handle left field as well for the Yankees. The defensive versatility will help as he looks for a place to sneak his bat into the lineup in New York. He's a senior sign, but he's on the younger side for that class and only turned 22 in May.

Wednesday, July 24, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Full list of draftees

The Phillies had a pretty straightforward draft strategy, especially early on: speed, speed, and more speed. Each of their first three picks are not only plus runners, but double-plus runners who can fly with the very fastest in pro baseball. Put Dante Nori, Griffin Burkholder, and John Spikerman in the system with Justin Crawford, himself one of the fastest runners in the minors, and you've got a lot of speed in those outfields. Overall, they targeted players with strong metric profiles at the plate as well. I find this to be a very intriguing class and given the limited draft capital that comes from drafting at the back of every round without any extra picks, I like the value they pulled here. It's a good draft for Sam Fuld and co.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-27: OF Dante Nori, Northville HS [MI] {video}
Slot value: $3.23 million. Signing bonus: $2.50 million ($728,300 below slot value).
My rank: #68. MLB Pipeline: #48. Baseball America: #80.
Dante Nori represents one of the more interesting picks of the first round. The son of NBA assistant coach Micah Nori, Dante was a well-known name on the prep circuit and has been one of the class's more consistent bats for a long time now. Nori is a very polished hitter who takes professional at bats, making plenty of hard contact and shooting line drives around the field with ease and intention. Although undersized at 5'10", he is filled out pretty well and understands himself as a hitter enough to turn on the ball for average power to the pull side, making for a pretty complete offensive profile. Meanwhile, the Detroit-area native may be primarily known for his plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon both on the bases and in the outfield, where he could eventually become a Gold Glove center fielder. As it turns out, the only real drawback in this profile is Nori's age – he's set to turn 20 in October, making him the oldest high school player I have ever come across and older than most college freshmen. In that sense, the fact that he looks like a man amongst boys should be less surprising. Still, Nori's combination of polish and speed would be impressive at any age, and the Phillies will hope they can fast track their center fielder of the future. Most projections had Nori in the second round range rather than the first, so the Phillies were able to cut a deal for more than $700,000 below slot value to keep him away from a Mississippi State commitment.

2-63: OF Griffin Burkholder, Freedom HS [VA] {video}
Slot value: $1.35 million. Signing bonus: $2.5 million ($1.15 million above slot value).
My rank: #53. MLB Pipeline: #54. Baseball America: #50.
Griffin Burkholder signed for an identical bonus to Dante Nori, so he'll head to Philadelphia instead of to West Virginia where he had been committed. While Nori is more polished, Burkholder has the higher ceiling with electric physical tools. The Northern Virginia native stands out for the plus power he generates from a ferocious right handed swing. It's a fairly short and simple operation, but he gets his hands going so quickly and transfers that power so effectively that he can effortlessly produce that pop. At this point, the barrel accuracy isn't quite there as he's not always on time or on plane, but he looked better in that regard this spring, takes good at bats as it is, and rose up boards accordingly. Meanwhile, like Nori he is a plus-plus runner who can fly around the bases, and he's currently learning to more effectively apply that speed in the outfield. Nori's polish probably gives him the edge in center field, but Burkholder has every chance to take that opportunity should he out-swing the Michigander. Between Burkholder, Nori, and top prospect Justin Crawford, the Phillies could end up with the speediest outfield in the majors in the near future. Burkholder's power stands above both of them and gives him real superstar potential if he can clean up the rough edges on his game. Like Nori, he's old for the class and will turn 19 before the regular season is over, though he's still more than ten months younger.

3-100: OF John Spikerman, Oklahoma {video}
Slot value: $730,500. Signing bonus: $672,500 ($58,000 below slot value).
My rank: #135. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #146.
Make it three elite runners in a row, why not? Dante Nori's savings covered most of Griffin Burkholder's bonus, but they're still in the red so John Spikerman is a slight cost saver while still providing some upside. He was good not great over his first two seasons at Oklahoma, then got off to a red hot start in 2024 before breaking his hamate bone in March. Returning a month later, he picked up where he left off and finished with an impressive season all told. Spikerman, as mentioned, stands out for his plus-plus speed, which, and you guessed it, could make him a plus defender in center field. Always speed first, his bat has taken a step forward recently as well. The Houston-area native makes a ton of contact and has really cut his strikeout rate, with is 8.6% mark representing elite territory. It's mostly line drive contact at this point, and while he's pretty slim at 6', 190 and doesn't project to add much more juice, he does produce sneakily solid exit velocities and may be able to get to occasional double digit home run totals. The ultimate projection is likely 8-12 home runs per season at peak. Because he makes so much contact, he rarely walks, though he's not overly aggressive at the plate either and will still make pitchers come to him. It's probably a fourth outfielder profile with a bit more upside if he learns to lift the ball better, and his center field defense will certainly help the bat profile better. Expect him to move somewhat quickly through the system.

4-130: 3B Carson DeMartini, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $545,400. Signing bonus: $545,400.
My rank: #96. MLB Pipeline: #93. Baseball America: #63.
Carson DeMartini represents a break in the pattern after three straight elite runners to start the draft, instead representing a pure power bat. He immediately jumped into the starting lineup at Virginia Tech and slashed .341/.452/.659 with 15 home runs as a true freshman, earning Freshman All-American honors at numerous publications, then continued to produce with a big sophomore season in 2023. He set a career high with 21 home runs in 2024, but his contact numbers regressed and he fell to the fourth round after beginning the season with a second round projection. Pulling the camera out, DeMartini does almost everything well at the plate. He has above average raw power, but it plays up to plus in games because he is adept at elevating the ball with authority. He can turn on the ball at will or drive it out the other way, but either way he is making his best contact when he gets the ball in the air and that means a lot of home runs. DeMartini also has a keen eye at the plate, bringing a patient approach in addition to strong pitch recognition ability. In one 24 hour period against Louisville early in the season, I watched him homer on a left handed fastball, a left handed slider, a right handed changeup, a right handed slider, and a left handed curveball. If that's not an impressive display of power and pitch recognition, I don't know what is. Unfortunately, there is one glaring flaw in this profile, and that is pure bat to ball. It might be a 30. He swings and misses way too much, including in the strike zone, giving him the second lowest contact rate (64%, ahead of Jared Jones) and the third highest highest strikeout rate (27.7%, ahead of Dakota Jordan and Rodney Green) out of 73 college hitters on my draft list. DeMartini is very streaky at the plate, and while he's too disciplined to look "lost" at the plate, there are times where it just seems like every swing is coming up empty. Philadelphia will have to find a way to remedy that as the stuff he faces gets tougher and tougher in pro ball, but between the power, patience, ability to elevate, and pitch recognition, he has a lot going for him as a hitter. Defensively, the Virginia Beach native has been pretty steady at third base and has enough arm strength to stick there. He may never be better than fringy to average over there, but he's not a liability either. If not third base, his below average speed will push him to first base or left field. The Phillies technically drafted him as a shortstop, but that seems like a stretch.

5-162: OF Carter Mathison, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $399,600. Signing bonus: $447,500 ($47,900 above slot value).
My rank: #184. MLB Pipeline: #204. Baseball America: #227.
Carter Mathison is an interesting ballplayer who can impact the game in a lot of ways. A three year starter at Indiana, he like DeMartini regressed a little bit in 2024 but continued to show the tools that teams like the Phillies covet. Like DeMartini, he's a very patient hitter that rarely chases, leading to high walk rates and an excellent .410 on-base percentage in the Cape Cod League last summer. It's a twitchy, leveraged 6'2" frame that helps him get to above average power in games, having blasted 42 home runs in three years in Bloomington, though that power didn't really show up on the Cape with wood bats where he slugged just .296. With fringy bat to ball skills, I'm a bit concerned that he may be more of a mistake hitter, so it's not a given that he'll continue to hit for impact in pro ball. The power and patience are there, though, so he's not far off from where he needs to be. Meanwhile, the Fort Wayne native is an above average runner and a plus defender in center field, which buys his bat plenty of slack, especially given that he's a left handed hitter. While he may never hit enough to play every day, Mathison seems like a very nice option as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions.

7-222: OF Joel Dragoo, Presbyterian {video}
Slot value: $244,300. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($21,800 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #441.
It was truly a banner year for Presbyterian College, the smallest college by enrollment in Division I. For the first time in school history, multiple players heard their names drafted, and while Daniel Eagen became the school's highest ever draft pick as a third rounder to the Diamondbacks this year, Joel Dragoo is the third highest ever drafted as a seventh rounder. He has steadily gotten better in his three seasons in Clinton, finishing with a banner year in 2024 in which he earned Big South Player of the Year honors. Dragoo has a very natural right handed swing with quick hands and sneaky average power, which he can access to all fields without selling out. He also takes pretty good at bats and makes decent enough contact, though the contact rates may tick back as he faces better pitching in pro ball. The approach should lead to healthy walk rates with moderate in-game power. The East Texas native is also a pretty decent runner who can hold his own in center field, though given all the speed in the Phillies' minor league outfields, he'll probably slide over to a corner. The upside here is that of a fourth outfielder who can do a little bit of everything on both sides of the ball.

9-282: RHP Marcus Morgan, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $188,200. Signing bonus: $185,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #168. MLB Pipeline: #247. Baseball America: #179.
Marcus Morgan is another prospect with a lot going for him but some fatal flaws as well. He intrigued scouts enough during a strong sophomore season in 2023 to earn his way into the Cape Cod League, pushing his way into top two round consideration. However, he struggled mightily in 2024 and finished with a 7.45 ERA, dropping down to the ninth round. Morgan is very interesting. His fastball sits in the low 90's with running and riding action, and he complements it with a full arsenal of secondary stuff. His tight slider is his best offspeed, while he also shows a cutter, curveball, and changeup that can all get hitters out even if none stand out as plus. Morgan's differentiator comes from his low three quarters arm slot that gives him a very low release point, even though his stuff plays like it's coming from a higher slot. It's a very unique release point/movement combination, which if developed correctly could really give hitters fits. At this point, though, his well below average command holds him back. He has a career walk rate of 19.2% that hasn't improved during his time at Iowa, and he walked ten of the forty hitters he faced on the Cape as well. Morgan has a loose delivery that doesn't require much effort, but he simply lacks feel for repeating his release point and gets scattered extremely often. The Phillies have had success with two other "zero command"-type arms in Griff McGarry and George Klassen, though McGarry and Klassen were noted for their massive fastball velocity while Morgan is special due to his unique movement. Still, there is somewhat of a blueprint there and Morgan could still become an impact arm.

15-462: RHP Luke Gabrysh, St. Joseph's {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
It was a banner year for eastern Pennsylvania talent this year, headlined by names like Nick Kurtz (Lancaster), Trey Yesavage (Boyertown), and Luke Holman (Sinking Spring) among many others, and while none of those top names wound up in Philadelphia, the Phillies did bring on a local kid in the fifteenth round. Luke Gabrysh is from unincorporated northern New Castle County, Delaware, having attended Concord High School just a few hundred yards from the Pennsylvania border. A diehard Phillies fan growing up, he moved twenty miles up to the city to attend St. Joseph's where he has served as a reliever for three years. The numbers have been unremarkable; he finished his career with an 8.13 ERA over 68.2 innings against mediocre competition and never had a season with a 20% strikeout rate. The Phillies, however, love the stuff. Gabrysh sits in the low 90's with his fastball and reaches 95 with running action. His slider shows great sweeping action and could be an above average pitch in time, though he lacks consistent feel for it at this point and doesn't always land it for strikes. The 6'3" righty has long arm action and creates a wide release point from a three quarters arm slot, giving hitters a bit of a different look. His command improved considerably during his time in Philadelphia and while it's still fringy, he's trending in the right direction. Gabrysh looks to be a fastball/slider reliever wit ha chance for more as he gets under the organization's tutelage.

19-582: LHP Erik Ritchie, East Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $112,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Make that two hometown kids for the Phillies. Erik Ritchie grew up in Telford, Pennsylvania and attended Souderton Area High School (alma mater of Jamie Moyer) in northern Montgomery County, about 26 miles north of Center City. After redshirting his freshman year in 2022, he like Luke Gabrysh has pitched to unremarkable results and finishes his two years at ECU with a 5.94 ERA over 53 innings, mostly as a reliever. There's very little information or video out there on him, but we'll do our best. Ritchie is well built at 6'1", 210 pounds, utilizing a high leg kick, a bit of a lean back towards third base, and a bit of a longer arm action. All of that creates plenty of deception and makes his stuff difficult to pick up, but it also hurts his strike throwing ability and he ran a 17.8% walk rate in 2024. He's a fastball/curveball guy that will need to improve his control significantly to cut it in pro ball.

Monday, July 22, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Houston Astros

Full list of draftees

Down a second round pick after signing Josh Hader in the offseason, the Astros were left with the smallest bonus pool of any team and didn't get to make too much of a splash here. Instead, they played the draft pretty straight up and went off the beaten path a little bit, trusting their internal evaluations and drafting quite a few players a bit higher than they might have expected to go. A highlight for local fans will be the drafting of two local players with their first three picks in Sam Houston State catcher Walker Janek (Portland, TX) and Rice righty Parker Smith (Bellaire, TX).
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-28: C Walker Janek, Sam Houston State {video}
Slot value: $3.13 million. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value.
My rank: #30. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #20.
The Astros kicked it off with a South Texas native here, grabbing Walker Janek out of Sam Houston State. Janek hails from Portland, Texas, a small but rapidly growing town across the bay from Corpus Christi. He was an immediate contributor upon reaching Huntsville, starting 51 games as a true freshman in 2022 and hitting over .300 in the process, then added some impact in 2023. Entering the spring more of a second round prospect, he put up a massive junior season in 2024 that earned him the Buster Posey Award for the best catcher in college baseball, becoming the first mid-major catcher to do so since Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley in 2017. Janek doesn't have a carrying tool, but it's an extremely well-rounded profile that will serve Houston well in the long run. A very aggressive hitter for most of his career, he reined in the approach a little bit in 2024 and dropped his chase rate below 25%, helping ease concerns about his bat transitioning to pro pitching. The bat to ball skills are average as well, so the lower chase rate really does help the hit tool profile better overall. Meanwhile, he's got above average power that he has tapped more and more often in games as the more selective approach has unlocked better opportunities for him to use it, all coming naturally from a quick, compact right handed swing. Overall, he profiles for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season with .260-ish batting averages, which is excellent production for a catcher. Janek will indeed stick behind the plate as an above average defender with improving glovework, while his plus arm strength makes up for a bit of a slower release and he caught more than half of would-be base stealers in 2024. We've had guys suit up for Houston recently from places like Houston (Corey Julks, Robbie Grossman), San Antonio (Forrest Whitley), eastern Louisiana (Wade Miley, Will Harris), and even Del Rio (Jack Mayfield) and Uvalde (Brooks Raley), but off the top of my head it appears Janek will be the first from Corpus in a long time.

3-101: RHP Ryan Forcucci, UC San Diego {video}
Slot value: $724,800. Signing bonus: difficult to project.
My rank: #67. MLB Pipeline: #86. Baseball Reference: #88.
Houston didn't have a second round pick, but I think they got a second round talent in Ryan Forcucci. Forcucci proved himself to be one of the more intriguing arms on the West Coast over his first two seasons in San Diego, then got off to a red hot start in 2024 to push himself closer to first round consideration. Unfortunately, he went down with an undisclosed injury after five starts and wound up having Tommy John surgery in June, so he likely won't be on the mound until late in the 2025 season at the soonest. That said, it's a legitimate arm talent. Forcucci sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 with his fastball, which plays up with big time riding life to miss bats. He gets late bite on his above average slider to give him a legitimate out pitch, while his curveball and changeup are coming along. The 6'3" righty moves extremely well on the mound, extending well towards the plate and putting a flatter approach angle on the ball to make his pitches play up. His athleticism also enables him to pound the strike zone with above average command, together making for a pretty complete package on the mound sans the injury. It's a modern arm built for the modern game that could quickly ascend to the middle of the Houston rotation once he's healthy.

4-131: RHP Parker Smith, Rice {video}
Slot value: $541,100. Signing bonus: likely to be a bit below slot value.
My rank: #212. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #149.
Three picks, two local guys. Parker Smith was born and raised in Harris County, attending Bellaire High School just fifteen minutes southwest of Minute Maid Park and pitching three years at Rice University, itself just four miles southwest of the stadium. It's safe to say he's a Houston lifer, and it looks like that won't be changing any time soon. Smith has been a member of the Rice rotation for all three seasons, making forty starts and tossing 220.1 innings in his time with the Owls to solid results. The stuff isn't overwhelming, but he gets the job done. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with average movement, while he has strong feel for an average slider and an above average changeup. Smith utilizes a a bit of a herky jerky delivery and a low three quarters slot that don't look like they belong on a starting pitching prospect, but he repeats them well and pounds the strike zone with above average command. Given all of that plus his size, the 6'4" righty looks like a safe bet back-end starter. For me, the primary wart on his profile comes from the fact that he didn't miss many bats, with his 19.7% strikeout rate making him one of just four college pitchers on my draft list (out of 54 total) with a sub-20% strikeout rate. The other three – Rafe Schlesinger (19.7%), Travis Smith (18.8%), and Fran Oschell (18.2%) – all pitched in the ACC or SEC, whereas Smith faced somewhat lesser competition in the American Athletic Conference and still couldn't miss many bats. The pieces are there for Smith, so the Astros may look to alter some patterns with his pitch usage and location to get the most out of their hometown kid.

5-163: RHP Cole Hertzler, Liberty {video}
Slot value: $396,200. Signing bonus: $393,700 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #240. Baseball America: #475.
Cole Hertzler was high school teammates and classmates with Blue Jays first round pick Trey Yesavage, then headed off to Liberty where he's taken a bit of a winding road. Initially a position player, he didn't play much as a freshman then found a role as a two-way player in 2023, working out of the bullpen, before jumping in as a full-time starting pitcher in 2024. He's a big, burly right hander at 6'4", 235 pounds, coming in with a low 90's fastball that gets up to 96 and leads a four pitch arsenal. His short, hard slider has some late bite, while his deeper curveball gives him a distinct second breaking ball and his hard, diving changeup may actually be his best pitch at the end of the day. The Pennsylvania native works from an over the top slot to put steep angle on his pitches, attacking the strike zone with average command. He doesn't have a long history of starting, but he's durable and doesn't throw with too much effort. The Astros will look at the lack of experience on the mound as a positive, finding an arm with less mileage and one which could continue to improve with additional development.

7-223: OF Joseph Sullivan, South Alabama {video}
Slot value: $242,400. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value, if a bit below.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #277.
South Alabama has produced some serious outfield talent over the years, from Luis Gonzalez and Juan Pierre in the past to 2018 tenth overall pick Travis Swaggerty, 2021 second rounder Ethan Wilson and 10th rounder (and fellow Astro) Michael Sandle, and now a pair of 2024 seventh rounders in Will Turner and Joseph Sullivan. He's a left handed hitter with a compact stroke and pull oriented approach that helps him elevate the ball effectively, making the most of his above average raw power when he squares the ball up. Meanwhile, Sullivan has an excellent eye at the plate and controls the strike zone extremely well, though his pure bat to ball skills are fringy and he gets into trouble in deep counts. Meanwhile, he's a plus runner that has stolen 45 bases in his three years in Mobile, and while Turner's presence forced him to left field for the Jaguars, he has a shot to play center field in pro ball. The Birmingham-area native showed extremely well in the MLB Draft League in 2023 (.288/.419/.673, 4 HR) and comes with more upside than you'd expect from an older junior who turned 22 before the draft. With his power, patience, and speed, the Astros could get creative with his development and see what comes out of it. He has the upside of ap power hitting platoon outfielder who could potentially see some every day action.

19-583: RHP Twine Palmer, Connors State JC [OK] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($47,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Chalk Twine Palmer up there as one of the greatest baseball names in the history of this beautiful sport. The second Astros draftee out of the Oklahoma JuCo scene this year, Palmer, a member of Choctaw Nation, shined at Connors State as a true freshman. The fastball presently sits around 90 with running action, while he shows good feel for his breaking ball and gets nice fade on his changeup. It's a smooth delivery that enables him to pound the strike zone, while his rangy 6'5" frame gives the Astros incoming physicality to dream on. It's a really nice sleeper profile from way off the beaten path. Connors State did lean heavily on their ace late in the season, evidenced by a complete game effort against Seminole State (ironically against Astros sixth rounder Caden Powell) in which he allowed eleven runs on thirteen hits and faced 44 batters as well as 8.2 innings of work against Northeastern Oklahoma A&M where he allowed six runs on nine hits and faced 38 batters. Neither listed a pitch count, but I have to imagine he must have thrown close to 150 in the first and comfortably over 120 in the second. He's still just 19 years old and has plenty of time to develop.

20-613: OF Ky McGary, Sandra Day O'Connor HS [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: will be very expensive if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #212. Baseball Reference: #295.
Here in the 20th round, Ky McGary seems unlikely to sign but Houston has no obvious overslot candidates elsewhere, so you never know. If Ryan Forcucci doesn't go too far over his $724,800 slot value in the third round, I think the Astros may be able to pull McGary away from his Arizona State commitment. McGary has somewhat of a similar profile to seventh rounder Joseph Sullivan, albeit right handed and less polished. Wiry and projectable at 6'1", he unleashes a potent right handed swing with impressive bat speed, albeit a bit stiff at times. His bat to ball ability has been inconsistent and many teams were scared off by the swing and miss in his profile, so Houston is potentially buying into the power and supplemental tools. The Phoenix-area product is a strong athlete and a plus runner with a chance to stick in center field if he can polish up the glove and footwork, which looked raw at times. He's also worked out at shortstop, but the actions are raw there as well. McGary is on the older side for a prep, turning 19 in August, but if Houston can get him to put pen to paper rather than go to school, they have a lot of puzzle pieces to work with.

Saturday, July 20, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full list of draftees

The Diamondbacks did not pick until #29 this year, but Corbin Carroll's Rookie of the Year Award and an extra CBA pick meant they got to pick at #29, #31, and #35, giving them the eleventh largest bonus pool in the league. That allowed Arizona to target several expensive preps across all three days of the draft, including four on day three of which they may be able to sign one or two. Athleticism and upside were a constant theme in this class, which they traded for the safety of more polished players. I personally love this class and I'm be very excited to see what comes out of it.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-29: OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] {video}
Slot value: $3.05 million. Signing bonus: likely to be well above slot value.
My rank: #17. MLB Pipeline: #27. Baseball America: #19.
The Diamondbacks started this draft with a bang, floating arguably the #3 prep prospect in the country all the way down to the #29 pick with what is certain to be a massive bonus to divert him away from an Ole Miss commitment. Slade Caldwell is a unique prospect, and not just because he comes from off the beaten path a little bit in Jonesboro, Arkansas. Generously listed at 5'9", he may be an inch or two shorter than that but he is for real. Caldwell has a lightning quick bat with some of the fastest hands in the class, quickly deploying his left handed swing for hard contact all over the zone. Lauded as one of the better pure hitters in the class, he controls the strike zone very well and rarely misses his pitch, giving him the potential for a plus hit tool when all is said and done. The power is fringy, but he gets the bat up to top speed so quickly that he still packs a lot more juice than you'd expect for a kid his size and should flirt with double digit home run totals annually. Beyond that, he's a plus runner that will stick in center field long term where his fringy arm isn't an issue. It's easy to make the comparison to fellow DBack outfielder Corbin Carroll, while it similarly makes sense to do so with 2022 Mets first rounder Jett Williams. Given the career arcs of those two, I think that's a very favorable projection for Caldwell, who could hit atop the Arizona batting order for years to come while flirting with .400 on-base percentages and stealing 20-30+ bags a year. I love the pick.

PPI-31: OF Ryan Waldschmidt, Kentucky {video}
Slot value: $2.90 million. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value.
My rank: #19. MLB Pipeline: #23. Baseball Reference: #33.
Speaking of Corbin Carroll, his winning Rookie of the Year last year gave the Diamondbacks an extra pick after the first round and they used it to grab another really good one. Ryan Waldschmidt was a late riser up boards, having begun his career at Charleston Southern in 2022 before transferring to Kentucky. After an unremarkable sophomore season in Lexington, he broke out in 2024 as one of the SEC's most dynamic players. He's a metric darling, grading out well in virtually every measurable. He uses a compact right handed swing to blast balls around the park with sneaky plus power, showing batted ball data with the production to match. Not only that, but he's a very disciplined hitter who rarely chases and does plenty of damage within the zone, giving him an above average hit tool as well. If there's one wart on the offensive profile, it's that he doesn't do much damage when he does chase, so he'll have to continue to control the strike zone in pro ball. Waldschmidt is also an above average runner who may stick in center field, though given he dropped out of the first round this year, more teams may see him as a left fielder where his below average arm won't be as much of an issue. The offensive bar is higher in left field, but I'm confident the Tampa-area native can clear it and become a dynamic contributor in a multitude of ways.

CBA-35: SS JD Dix, Whitefish Bay HS [WI] {video}
Slot value: $2.63 million. Signing bonus: difficult to predict.
My rank: #72. MLB Pipeline: #75. Baseball America: #62.
JD Dix was always going to be difficult to place on draft boards, and as it turns out he went about a round earlier than most expected. Scouts have a longer history with him, but he battled a shoulder injury over the summer that sapped his strength and wound up having labrum surgery. He didn't face the toughest competition up in the Milwaukee area and opinions varied wildly on him. For that reason, there are some similarities to Boston's Nick Yorke pick in 2020, though Yorke did face better competition in the San Francisco Bay Area while Dix is a better defender. Dix has impressive strength in his 6'2" frame and can really whip the bat through the zone, with strong wrists that can adjust and get the barrel to balls all over the zone with authority. A very advanced hitter for his age, he's decidedly hit over power at this point, but I wouldn't put it past him to develop average or better power in games despite not having unlocked it quite yet. He's also a sound defender who has shown well at shortstop, though the shoulder injury will call his arm strength into question. If he has to move over to second base, he still should have the bat to profile as a high on-base type with 10-20 home run power, and if he sticks there you suddenly have a steal of a draft pick. Dix runs well and should be a factor on the bases as well. At full strength, this is an exceptionally well-rounded profile. It's difficult to ascertain just how large of a bonus it will take to keep him from a Wake Forest commitment, as he was drafted much earlier than some expected but may still require a hefty sum to stay out of Winston-Salem.

2-64: C Ivan Luciano, El Shaddai Christian HS [PR] {video}
Slot value: $1.32 million. Signing bonus: likely to be below slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #220. unranked.
This pick was a surprise to many, as Ivan Luciano did not rank on the Baseball America 500 and was indeed off the radar for many prospect evaluators, including myself. The Diamondbacks will likely get him for well below slot value, looking to pull him away from a Miami of Ohio commitment in a range at least a few rounds earlier than he was expected to go. Luciano is an up arrow guy who showed well at the MLB Draft Combine right there at Chase Field, where Arizona decision makers no doubt got a good look at him. Compact and strong at 5'10", he's built like a catcher and looks the part. His defense has steadily crept forward, as he has learned to more effectively deploy his above average arm and his throws have gotten more accurate. Having worked with Yadier Molina, he's also moving better back there and now looks like he'll stick as a catcher long term, with the potential to even become an above average defender back there on his current trajectory. Similarly, the bat has taken strides, as his swing gets more fluid and powerful. It's overall an average all-around offensive profile befitting of a backup catcher at this point. Adding to intrigue is his age, as Luciano was tied for the second youngest player taken in the entire draft (alongside New York prep pitcher/Brewers 18th rounder Tyler Renz and behind fellow Puerto Rican catcher/Reds' tenth rounder Yanuel Casiano), meaning he won't turn 18 until the offseason. That gives him upwards of a year's extra time to develop physically and hone his craft. The Diamondbacks are buying into that youth as well as the steady, continual improvements he has displayed in all aspects of his game.

3-102: RHP Daniel Eagen, Presbyterian {video}
Slot value: $717,700. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value.
My rank: #81. MLB Pipeline: #83. Baseball America: #107.
Presbyterian College in South Carolina is the smallest Division I school in the country with an enrollment of about 1200 students. Prior to 2024, they had not had a player drafted since Bud Jeter (elite baseball name) was a 25th round pick by the Diamondbacks way back in 2013, and in finding himself here in the third round, Daniel Eagen becomes the highest drafted player in school history. Eagen, whose high school (Fuquay Varina HS south of Raleigh) was nearly twice the size of his college, pitched to an 8.44 ERA over his first two seasons before taking off in 2024 and earning Big South Pitcher of the Year honors. Long and lanky at 6'4", he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and tops out around 96, coming in with huge riding life from a very high slot. His deep, sharp curveball looks like a plus pitch, while his shorter slider has taken a step forward as well. His changeup remains behind the rest of the arsenal. Previously wild and hittable, the North Carolina native has sharpened his command in 2024 with an uptempo yet simple delivery. He's a solid athlete that could unlock additional upside as he jumps into a pro development program and looks like a potential mid-rotation starter.

4-132: SS Tytus Cissell, Francis Howell HS [MO] {video}
Slot value: $535,800. Signing bonus: likely to be above slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #234. Baseball America: #471.
Every year, I have to put the laptop down and stop my research somewhere, leaving names on the table. This year, Tytus Cissell was on that list of players I would have likely added to my board if I had a little more time, and he's a big gamble for the Diamondbacks who may also provide a huge payoff. Most scouts would agree that he is far from proven against upper tier pitching, having not been seen much on the summer showcase circuit and facing average pitching in the St. Louis area. And though he stands 6'2", he's not quite physically developed yet with a skinnier frame. That said, there is plenty of upside. Cissell is a switch hitter that grades out very well in athletic testing, with fast hands, quick feet, and springy actions in all athletic contexts that could make him a star in any sport. There's a bit more impact from the left side of the plate, and as he gets stronger and fills out that frame, he could grow into average or better power in time. He's also a plus runner that has shown well at shortstop, where he could stick with additional refinement. Cissell is coming off a strong spring as well where everything seemed to be coming together. Committed to Missouri, he'll likely require a hefty bonus from the Diamondbacks to leave the Show Me State and head to the desert, but the Diamondbacks are buying into the athleticism, projection, and trajectory while accepting the risk that comes with his lack of testing against higher level arms.

5-164: RHP Connor Foley, Indiana {video}
Slot value: $392,300. Signing bonus: likely to be a bit above slot value.
My rank: #121. MLB Pipeline: #106. Baseball America: #109.
In Connor Foley, the Diamondbacks are getting a high octane, high upside arm that needs some refinement. Hailing from Jasper, the same small town in southern Indiana that produced Scott Rolen and later whose Dubois County neighbor, Huntingburg, gave us top White Sox prospect Colson Montgomery, Foley has spent the past two seasons blowing away Big Ten hitters at Indiana. He has huge arm strength that enables him to sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and reach back for as much as 99, with big riding life making it a potential plus-plus pitch down the line. He also shows a power slider that could overwhelm Big Ten hitters with its velocity, though it's movement profile isn't as impressive and he'll need to refine the pitch more to miss pro bats. Foley stands out for an advanced changeup that he'll use regularly, showing hard late fade to miss bats at an extremely high clip. There's also a show me curveball, but it's a fourth pitch. The 6'5" righty brings impressive size to the table but struggles with command, and that combined with the lack of feel for spin may push him to the bullpen in the long run. That said, he's an excellent athlete who could take another step forward under the Diamondbacks' tutelage and just turned 21 the day before he was drafted, making him very young for a college draftee.

11-344: OF Bo Walker, Starrs Mill HS [GA] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: will be well above slot value if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #384.
Almost everybody drafted in the top ten rounds will sign, but rounds 11-20 are where it gets iffy, especially for high schoolers. Bo Walker has a Georgia Tech commitment to contend with, though given the Diamondbacks' massive bonus pool and the fact that they grabbed him with their very first pick of day three, there's reason to believe they have a shot to land him. Walker, like many players taken before him, is an excellent athlete in need of refinement. He's extremely projectable at 6'3" with plenty of room to add good weight. Walker gets great separation in his right handed swing and could grow into serious power, though at this point he'll have to work to get to it beyond getting stronger. It's a raw setup and swing, as he employs a wide base and the swing can get disconnected at times with below average barrel accuracy. As the Diamondbacks (or Yellow Jackets) work to fix that, the upside is tremendous given the way he moves in the box. The Atlanta-area native is also a plus runner with a chance to stick in center field, where his average arm will fit.

20-614: C Hunter Carns, First Coast HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: will be well above slot value if he signs.
My rank: #106. MLB Pipeline: #152. Baseball America: #69.
Based on draft position alone, Bo Walker seems like he'd be more likely to sign than Hunter Carns, and we also have two more high schoolers in eighteenth rounder Jackson Hotchkiss (Washington commit) and nineteenth rounder Tyler Bayer (Kennesaw State) to contend with. That said, if the Diamondbacks move money around effectively want to make it happen, they could get a huge talent in Carns, who will likely demand seven figures to skip out on a Florida State commitment. Carns, like many in this draft class, is a premium athlete with tremendous upside. He's much more athletic than most catchers and could remind scouts of Harry Ford and Caleb Lomavita in that sense, though the offensive profile is a little different. Already packing a ton of strength into his 6' frame, he shows natural above average power in games with a compact right handed swing. His bat to ball is a bit behind and he can get very streaky in the box, though there were stretches where he torched opposing pitching and looked like a day one draft pick. Unlike most catchers, he's a plus runner that moves extremely well all over the diamond, and that agility plus his strong arm gives him plenty of ceiling behind the plate. Similarly to his offense, he'll need to refine his actions to get there and currently grades out average defensively. Perhaps the biggest drawback in his profile is his age, as he turned 19 back in April and therefore was a full year older than many of his class of 2024 contemporaries.

Friday, July 19, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers clearly had a type they were searching for. In their first three picks, they took three consecutive bat-first, left handed, sophomore hitters from blue chip programs, and all three had alliterative names to boot. There's a lot of offensive firepower in this draft class, and indeed the Rangers stuck with hitters through the first nine rounds before pivoting to mostly arms in rounds 10-20. It's early, so tenth rounder Jake Jekielek is the only player I know of who has signed, but it appears that Texas played its bonus pool pretty straightforward.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-30: C Malcolm Moore, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $2.97 million. Signing bonus: likely to be near slot value.
My rank: #33. MLB Pipeline: #26. Baseball America: #31.
The Rangers kicked things off with a pretty interesting bat. Malcolm Moore was one of the top high school hitters in the country in 2022, earning interest throughout day one of the draft and ranking 70th on my board, but opted to attend Stanford instead. After hitting .311/.386/.564 during a big freshman season, he seemingly took a step back in 2024 when he started slowly. However, his under the hood numbers showed that he was a victim of bad luck, and he began to turn things around as the year went on. The final numbers weren't overly impressive – .255/.414/.553, 16 HR – but the metrics are. Moore employs a unique setup at the plate, starting open at almost a 45 degree angle towards the pitcher, before fluttering his front foot back with about seven hundred to taps and rocking his hands back to prepare for his swing. Despite all the movement, which he does tone down a bit with two strikes, he's extremely hitterish in the box and makes a ton of contact. With a strong approach to boot, you could argue he has a borderline plus hit tool. Beyond that, Moore's sturdy 6'2" frame packs plenty of strength and his loose left handed swing translates that into average raw power, which he taps plenty in games due to his strong feel for the barrel. He's a bit behind defensively, as he's not very fluid behind the plate and his fringy arm strength means he has to take time and load up for his throws down to second base. There's a pretty good chance he moves out to first base or left field, where he might be a below average defender. All the value is tied to the bat, and it's a hit over power profile for my money, but he's an impressive young man with a good head on his shoulders and was still 20 years old on draft day, giving him plenty of time to hone that defense and prove critics wrong. Still, he should hit plenty enough to profile at a different position.

2-65: OF Dylan Dreiling, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: $1.29 million. Signing bonus: likely to be near slot value.
My rank: #75. MLB Pipeline: #72. Baseball America: #73.
Another pick, another big left handed sophomore bat. Dylan Dreiling comes from Hays, Kansas, a mid-sized town about 250 miles west of Kansas City. He showed well in a part time role in 2023 before exploding for a huge 2024, capping it with a red hot run through in Omaha in which he slashed .542/.586/.958 in six games, homering in all three College World Series Finals games to win CWS MVP honors. Dreiling, like Moore, is a hitter first and foremost. He's only listed at 5'11" but packs a ton of strength into his shorter frame, giving him above average raw power that he has tapped more and more often in games. On top of that, he's a very disciplined hitter that takes good at bats and recognizes pitches he can turn on, leading to an excellent 17.5% walk rate in 2024. His overall approach has varied, at times showing more of an all-fields approach while more recently looking to drive the ball to the pull side, which has resulted in better in-game production but made him look a bit rough on outside pitches he can't get around. He'll look to find a happy medium in that regard. Additionally, while he assuaged some concerns in 2024, in the past he's had trouble against lefties and that will also be something to monitor going forward. Dreiling, also like Moore, is a fringy defender who won't provide much value out there. He's a decent runner who will likely end up in left field.

3-103: OF Casey Cook, North Carolina {video}
Slot value: $710,400. Signing bonus: potentially a bit below slot value.
My rank: #149. MLB Pipeline: #171. Baseball America: #164.
Again, yet another alliterative left handed hitter that looks like a professional in the box. Casey Cook comes from Freedom High School in Chantilly, Virginia, was limited by injuries during his freshman season at UNC, then watched his power explode from three home runs as a sophomore to 18 home runs as a junior. Cook doesn't have a carrying tool, but he's a very solid hitter all-around. He has excellent pitch recognition ability and has no issue picking up spin, enabling him to do damage against all pitch types. He combines a fairly patient approach with relatively high contact rates, though he did occasionally get into trouble in deeper counts and struck out nearly 20% of the time in 2024. Cook's raw power is fringe-average, which may be part of the reason he struggled to hit for impact in the Cape Cod League last summer (.196/.310/.278), but he's a smart hitter who knows how to deploy that power and make the most of it in games. I don't see an every day profile here, and with an average build at a list 6', 195 pounds, he's unlikely to grow into much more impact. However, he's a versatile defender who could see time at second base, third base, and the corner outfield spots in pro ball, which will give him every avenue to push his way through to a major league role. Cook is an average athlete whose arm may be stretched a little at third base or right field but should be able to get it done.

4-133: RHP David Hagaman, West Virginia {video}
Slot value: $530,400. Signing bonus: potentially a bit below slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #183.
David Hagaman is a bit more off the radar, though credit to Baseball America for picking him up and ranking him inside the top 200. After redshirting his freshman year at West Virginia, Hagaman has served as a reliever the past two seasons, though he did complete five innings three times this year. That includes his best outing of the entire season, which occurred right in the Rangers backyard as the Mountaineers visited Oklahoma. Hagaman came in in relief of starter Tyler Switalski in the third inning and finished the game, tossing 6.2 innings of one run ball while striking out ten Sooners. He's mostly fastball/slider, with the former reaching 98 in short stints while settling in the low to mid 90's over longer outings and the latter showing hard vertical bite. It's a bit of an uptempo delivery but he controls it well, helping him effectively attack hitters in the zone and get ahead in counts often enough to force them to chase. Big and physical at 6'4", there's a chance the Rangers try the Jersey Shore native in the rotation, where he'll have to incorporate his changeup a bit more and prove he can hold his fringe-average command together over longer outings. It's not the world's most exciting pick, but the Rangers do get a physical power arm out of it.

5-165: SS Devin Fitz-Gerald, Stoneman Douglas HS [FL] {video}
Slot value: $388,700. Signing bonus: likely a bit above slot value.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #218. Baseball America: #470.
Devin Fitz-Gerald, the Rangers' only high school pick that's expected to sign, comes with the polish of a college player. That's unsurprising given his bloodlines – his father, Todd, is the head coach at South Florida powerhouse Stoneman Douglas High School, while his older brother, Hunter, played at Old Dominion and is currently playing at High A in the Mariners' organization. Devin is a switch-hitting shortstop with the ability to make things happen on the field. Undersized at 5'10", he deploys a pair of whippy swings with natural loft that help him tap his fringy raw power consistently in games. He can get out front when his timing isn't quite right, but the bat to ball and adjustability in his swings is strong and he projects to make a lot of contact and get on base consistently at the pro level. Defensively, his actions on the dirt are deliberate and may not be explosive enough for shortstop, while his average arm may push him to second base in the long term. Still, he's a heady player all around who makes the most of his average physical ability and has a chance to turn himself into a utility type at the big league level. He's committed to NC State so his bonus demands could be high.

7-225: 3B Rafe Perich, Lehigh {video}
Slot value: $238,900. Signing bonus: likely to be near slot value.
My rank: #169. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #293.
On the surface, Rafe Perich may appear to be an ordinary day two pick with strong but not eye-popping performance at a low major school. He's hit over .300 in each of his three seasons at Lehigh but never hit more than six home runs in a season despite playing a weaker schedule, and he already turned 22 in May making him far older than most juniors. Sounds par for the course in the seventh round, right? But if you look under the hood, Perich is actually one of the most fascinating prospects in the entire class. His batted ball and swing decision metrics, quite frankly, are off the charts. There's massive juice in his bat, with a 90th percentile exit velocity over 109 miles per hour that grades out as easily plus. Meanwhile, he rarely ever whiffs, running contact rates over 88%, and he never chases either, doing so less than 16% of the time. Those are elite numbers that, when combined together, went unmatched in college baseball. So who is this guy? Perich is a switch hitter with an unusual setup at the plate, keeping his weight back before drifting into the pitch with a modified stride that almost serves to catch him as that weight releases forward, coiling the bat all the while before unfurling for his swing. He employs a line drive approach which sees him consistently scorch the ball either on the ground or on a line, often putting infielders into self-defense mode when the ball is hit directly at them but creating few opportunities for the ball to leave the yard. Going up against mediocre Patriot League pitching in 2024, he controlled the strike zone exceptionally well and rarely ever missed a good pitch, his only strikeouts (which were few and far between) coming when he got overly passive and dug himself into deep counts. Going forward, the Rangers will look for a way to help the eastern Pennsylvania native put more loft under the ball and take advantage of his prodigious raw power, while also helping him adjust to the steep step up in competition he'll see in pro ball. There's considerable upside here but Texas will have to unlock it. Meanwhile, he's an adequate defender at third base with average mobility, while his plus arm will help him make up for balls he takes longer to get to and gather. I'm very curious to see how this one goes.

19-585: LHP Cade Obermueller, Iowa {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: unlikely to sign.
My rank: #150. MLB Pipeline: #214. Baseball America: #176.
As a draft-eligible sophomore who was projected to go about a dozen rounds sooner, it's unlikely that Cade Obermueller signs here, instead most likely heading back to Iowa City for his junior season. He was well-known in high school but spurned pro offers to stay home and pitch for his hometown Hawkeyes, serving as a reliever as a freshman before jumping to the rotation as a sophomore. Undersized at 5'11", he stands out for an ultra low release out of a sidearm slot that provides a unique look to hitters. The fastball sits in the low 90's and reaches 97 in short stints with sinking and running action, while his sweeping slider dives across the plate and looks to be a plus pitch. While he showed well as a reliever on the Cape last summer (1.83 ERA, 35/11 K/BB in 19.2 IP), his command was shaky in the rotation and for that reason he looks mostly like a funky fastball/slider lefty sidearm reliever at this point, so returning to Iowa will give him a chance to throw more consistent strikes and showcase his nascent changeup a bit more. And if he does decide to sign, he was still 20 years old on draft day and could be a fun project.

20-615: C Mac Rose, McLennan JC [TX] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: has not signed yet.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Late round JuCo guys area always a coin flip on signability, but I don't see a four year commitment for Mac Rose so we will see. Rose is a local DFW guy out of Rockwall High School just east of Dallas, and he just put up a big season at McLennan JC in Waco. He's a left handed hitter with a compact operation in the box, showing a high contact, line drive approach that made him a tough matchup for any opposing pitcher down on the Texas JuCo circuit. There is some pop in the bat too and he brings a sturdy 6' frame, though it's mostly a line drive approach for now. He was listed as a two-way player on McLennan's roster, but did not see the mound in 2024.

Monday, July 15, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review Index

Below you will find each of my thirty MLB Draft reviews, team by team with links. I will work in reverse order of the team's first pick, starting with the Rangers and ending with the Guardians. You can find my full draft rankings here.

Arizona Diamondbacks (published 7/20)
Atlanta Braves (published 8/4)
Baltimore Orioles (published 8/13)
Boston Red Sox (published 9/14)
Chicago Cubs (published 9/7)
Chicago White Sox (published 9/29)
Cincinnati Reds (published 10/7)
Cleveland Guardians (published 10/12)
Colorado Rockies (published 10/6)
Detroit Tigers (published 9/16)
Houston Astros (published 7/22)
Kansas City Royals (published 9/28)
Los Angeles Angels (published 9/24)
Los Angeles Dodgers (published 8/7)
Miami Marlins (published 9/3)
Milwaukee Brewers (published 8/31)
Minnesota Twins (published 8/15)
New York Mets (published 8/24)
New York Yankees (published 7/28)
Oakland Athletics (published 10/1)
Philadelphia Phillies (published 7/24)
Pittsburgh Pirates (published 9/22)
San Diego Padres (published 8/2)
San Francisco Giants (published 9/8)
Seattle Mariners (published 9/6)
St. Louis Cardinals (published 9/26)
Tampa Bay Rays (published 8/29)
Texas Rangers (published 7/19)
Toronto Blue Jays (published 8/21)
Washington Nationals (published 9/20)