These 10 prospects, in no particular order, have improved their stock tremendously in 2018. Some of them might have already been well-regarded and others may have popped out of nowhere, but if you enjoy getting an early look at the future of the game, these are ten names you should absolutely familiarize yourself with.
**Juan Soto, despite beginning the season as a prospect, will not be included on this list because he has exceeded rookie limits at the major league level. Even though he came into the season as arguably the Nationals' second best prospect behind Victor Robles, with 14 home runs and a .303/.421/.542 slash line as a 19 year old, he has exceeded even the wildest of expectations.
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, Age 19)
18 HR, .400/.454/.681, 3 SB, 32/30 K/BB, 208 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 3 at GCL, 1 at High A, 61 at AA, 12 at AAA
Vladimir Guerrero's son entered the season already considered one of the top prospects in baseball, coming off a 2017 where he slashed .323/.425/.485 with 13 home runs and an excellent 62/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Lansing and High A Dunedin, playing the entire season at 18 years old. However, in 2018, he has gone from potential superstar to likely superstar, which is a huge jump. In 77 games between AA New Hampshire, AAA Buffalo, and rehab work, his slash line is an incredible .400/.454/.681, as he has clobbered 18 home runs and struck out 32 times to 30 walks. The kid is nearly half a year younger than Juan Soto and is absolutely obliterating the high minors, including an unfathomable .395/.489/.763 line, four home runs (all in consecutive games), and a tremendous 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 12 games since his promotion to AAA. His defense is coming along, and while he's not Nolan Arenado at third base, he has worked hard to be serviceable there and that work ethic spreads to the rest of his game. Even if you're just a casual fan, you should learn his name; he has the potential to be every bit as good as his Hall of Fame dad. Junior has tremendous power, tremendous plate discipline, and the work ethic to get the most out of it. I can see him hitting 30+ home runs per season with an on-base percentage above .400.
SS Wander Franco (Rays, Age 17)
8 HR, .367/.423/.606, 4 SB, 14/18 K/BB, 164 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 45 in rookie level Appalachian League
If you have heard the name before, you might be thinking of his brother, Wander Franco, a prospect in the Giants organization. Or his other brother, Wander Franco, also a prospect in the Giants organization. His dad is also named Wander Franco. It's a little weird. Anyways, now that that's out of the way, this Wander Franco was already well regarded before the season, signing for a $3.85 million bonus (about what a mid-first round pick would sign for) out of the Dominican Republic and rating as the top prospect in the international class. However, his minor league debut has been one of the best in history for a 17 year old, as he started off in the rookie level Appalachian League (two levels higher than where most kids his age begin their careers), and he is absolutely crushing it. Through 45 games in a league where you typically see 21 year old college players beginning their careers, Franco is slashing .367/.423/.606 with eight home runs and more walks (18) than strikeouts (14) despite being born in the year 2001 (feel old yet?). The combination of power and average is great, but what really stands out to me is the plate discipline. A 9% walk rate isn't particularly high, but his 7% strikeout rate is minuscule for any player, especially for a literal kid playing with people quite a few years older than him while also hitting for power. He plays shortstop right now and while he may move off the position, he also may stay there, which would give him the potential to be both an impact bat and an impact glove at the same time. Obviously, he's a long way off, but you can't start your career any better than this.
LHP Jesus Luzardo (A's, Age 20)
10-4, 2.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 122/25 K/BB, 101.2 IP
Game Breakdown: 3 starts in High A, 16 in AA, 2 in AAA
Luzardo was a well regarded high school arm coming out of Stoneman Douglas High School in 2016, and upon returning from Tommy John surgery in mid 2017, he looked great over 43.1 innings, going 2-1 with a 1.66 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio. Those numbers are all great, but they were all in the low minors and he had plenty to prove in 2018. Well, he started at High A Stockton and posted a 1.23 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over three starts, quickly earning a promotion to AA Midland. There, he was excellent in 16 starts, going 7-3 with a 2.29 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 86/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings, earning another promotion, this one to AAA Nashville at just 20 years old. He has made two starts there, striking out eleven and walking only two over 8.1 innings but also allowing four runs. Over the course of the season, he has not only proven he is healthy by throwing 101.2 innings, but also that his stuff can play up against upper level minor leaguers right now, and the major leagues are just around the corner.
RHP Chris Paddack (Padres, Age 22)
7-2, 1.91 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 114/7 K/BB, 85 IP
Game Breakdown: 10 starts in High A, 6 in AA
The emergence of Paddack, in my opinion, is enough to tip the scale from the Braves to the Padres for the best farm system in baseball. Paddack was off to a fantastic start at Class A in 2016, posting a 0.85 ERA over nine starts, but he went down with Tommy John and not only missed the rest of the season, but all of 2017 as well. Fully healthy for 2018, the Padres started off the 22 year old at High A Lake Elsinore in the notoriously hitter-friendly California League, but he was unfazed by the environment; In ten starts, he went 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a straight up ridiculous 83/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 52.1 innings. Promoted to AA San Antonio, in July, he has been just as good, if not better, through six starts; 3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, 31/3 K/BB in 32.2 innings. The strikeout rate dropped a little from the ridiculous 40.9% rate he had in High A to a more reasonable 27% in AA, while the walk rate stayed virtually the same (2% up to 2.6%). Despite the high strikeout rate, the stuff is more good than great, and he really makes his living by locating it around the zone. It won't cause him to rack up the strikeouts in the majors, but it's enough to keep minor league hitters swinging through pitches and it will help him be a fine mid rotation or back-end starter in the majors. Really, the biggest thing about this season was supposed to be about proving he was healthy, but he has done much more than that. Through his minor league career, he is now 13-5 with a 1.72 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and a 224/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 172.2 innings.
RHP Justin Dunn (Mets, Age 22)
7-7, 2.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 128/39 K/BB, 114 IP
Game Breakdown: 9 starts in High A, 11 in AA
Dunn was taken 19th overall out of Boston College in 2016 on the heels of a breakout junior year, and although he continued that success into a strong pro debut in the New York-Penn League that year (1.50 ERA, 35/10 K/BB), he struggled big time in his promotion to High A Port St. Lucie in 2017. Over 20 games (16 starts) in his first full pro season, Dunn went 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 75/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings, even seeing his season end early due to shoulder fatigue in August. The most troubling thing about the season was his strikeout rate; inconsistency in his secondary pitches led to an uncharacteristically low 17.3% strikeout rate, which isn't good for a fireballing first rounder. He began 2018 back in High A, but the results were different; in nine starts, he went 2-3 with a 2.36 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio in 45.2 innings, bumping that strikeout rate up to 25.9% and watching his walk rate fall from 11.1% to 7.6%. Upon his promotion to AA Binghamton, it was more of the same, as he went 5-4 with a 3.29 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP while racking up 77 strikeouts against 24 walks in 68.1 innings (27.4% to 8.5%). The increased consistency in his stuff his huge; while it obviously helped him be more successful across two important minor league levels, it shows a clear step forward from his more raw college days and his rough 2017. The stuff has always been there when he has been at his best; now that he has proven that he can maintain his best stuff, the risk he ends up in the bullpen is much lower and his shot at being a mid-rotation starter or better in New York has improved.
1B Nathaniel Lowe (Rays, Age 23)
25 HR, .349/.436/.602, 1 SB, 70/61 K/BB, 191 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 51 at High A, 50 at AA, 6 at AAA
Coming into the season, Lowe was a fringe prospect who was a fine hitter in the mid minors, but who didn't quite show enough power for a first baseman and who would probably get lost in the shuffle if he didn't do something soon. Well, he did something. He began at High A Charlotte, the same place he finished last year (and where he slashed .249/.355/.353), but was much better; after 51 games, he was slashing .356/.432/.588 with 10 home runs and a 33/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to AA Montgomery, he kept on hitting. Through 50 games, he slashed .342/.446/.610 with 13 home runs and a 30/35 strikeout to walk ratio. Recently, he was bumped up again, this time to AAA Durham, where he is slashing .346/.393/.654 with a pair of home runs and a 7/1 strikeout to walk ratio over six games. He has not only shown the ability to hit for power, but also average and plate discipline. Bumping up his walk rate from 11.4% to 15.6% and dropping his strikeout rate from 15% to 13.4% between High A and AA is an especially good sign, showing that he can control the strike zone against advanced pitching, which bodes well for major league success. He entered the season as a fringe prospect, but now he may be the first baseman of the future in Tampa.
C Ronaldo Hernandez (Rays, Age 20)
18 HR, .286/.339/.499, 9 SB, 61/26 K/BB, 133 wRC+
Game Breakdown: All 95 at Class A
Catching prospects are hard to come by, so whenever one shows the ability to hit, they immediately become extremely valuable. Hernandez didn't pop out of nowhere; as a 19 year old in the rookie level Appalachian League last year, he slashed .332/.382/.507 with five home runs over 54 games. However, plenty of guys hit over somewhat small samples in rookie ball and struggle to translate it up. That's why his success this year, including a .286/.339/.499 line and 18 home runs in 95 games, is so important. Class A is a big jump up from the Appalachian League, and by maintaining his success over a larger sample, he has proven that the bat is for real. The 61/26 strikeout to walk ratio isn't excellent but it isn't bad either, and just proving that he is a catcher who can hit is enough to bump his stock up considerably. He has a long way still to go, but he's just 20 and he's right on track.
RHP Luis Patino (Padres, Age 18)
5-3, 2.39 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 86/20 K/BB, 71.2 IP
Game Breakdown: All 15 starts in Class A
Patino was an electric arm coming out of Colombia, and success in his complex level (lowest minor league level) debut in 2017 (2.25 ERA, 58/18 K/BB) was a nice indicator. Like Hernandez, Class A was set to be the first real test, and he has passed with flying colors at two years younger than Hernandez. Through 15 starts for Fort Wayne, he is 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, striking out 86 and walking 20 in 71.2 innings despite not turning 19 until October. For an 18 year old, a 30% strikeout rate against a 7% walk rate will do. While the strikeout rate is impressive, I'm more impressed by the low walk rate, just because of his young age as well as because of the advanced competition he is facing in the Midwest League. At this rate, he could be in AA before his 20th birthday and could be in the majors before he can drink, which is saying a lot for the kid who began in the Dominican Summer League just last season.
SS Isaac Paredes (Tigers, Age 19)
13 HR, .267/.344/.444, 2 SB, 66/40 K/BB, 123 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 84 in High A, 21 in AA
Paredes is another young guy who is proving himself based on holding his own against much older competition. Beginning the season at High A Lakeland, he slashed .259/.338/.455 with 12 home runs and a 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games, showing a little bit of plate discipline, power, and defense. Promoted to AA at just 19 years old, he has continued producing, slashing .303/.372/.394 with a home run and a 12/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games. It's a small sample so I won't fault him for the slight decrease in power, but it's really nice to see both the strikeout rate (15.6% in High A to 15.4% in AA) and the walk rate (9.2% to 10.3%) hold up with the promotion. Young players who can control the strike zone against advanced pitching have a great chance of maintaining that production as they move up, and Paredes could be in the major leagues next season at just 20 years old.
SS Gavin Lux (Dodgers, Age 20)
13 HR, .327/.396/.521, 12 SB, 76/45 K/BB, 148 wRC+
Game Breakdown: 88 at High A, 9 at AA
High school bats, especially from the north (Lux is from Wisconsin), often take some time to develop, and Lux really broke out in 2018. After a so-so season at Class A Great Lakes in 2017, where he slashed an uninspiring .244/.331/.362 with a respectable 88/56 strikeout to walk ratio as a teenager, 2018 has been a different story. The bat developed at High A Rancho Cucamonga, where he slashed .324/.396/.520 with 11 home runs and a 68/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games, earning a recent promotion to AA Tulsa. The jump from Rancho Cucamonga to Tulsa is a big one, as Rancho Cucamonga is in the extremely hitter-friendly California League and Tulsa skews a bit more pitcher friendly, on top of the large jump from one level to the next. However, through nine games, he is showing no signs of slowing down, slashing .359/.390/.538 with a pair of home runs and an 8/2 strikeout to walk ratio. In all, Lux is a 20 year old bat that took his prospect status from "project with a high ceiling" to "AA hitter who is fulfilling his promise and is not too far from a major league opportunity." Throw in his 12 stolen bases this year and his ability to play shortstop, and the Dodgers have something special.
Others: Taylor Ward (Angels), Touki Toussaint (Braves), William Contreras (Braves), Bruce Zimmerman (Orioles), Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
