2022 MLB Draft Review: Miami Marlins

Full list of draftees

The Marlins are one of the better organizations out there when it comes to pitching development and really struggle with hitters. So naturally, they drafted a near-finished product with the bat in the first round then proceeded to take eleven consecutive pitchers in rounds 2-12, highlighted by two expensive high schoolers at the top and a slew of power college arms. I don't love the final list of names here, and I really didn't like the Jacob Berry pick to start things off. They prioritized velocity and feel for spin here, and did pick up a very interesting sleeper in twelfth rounder Cole Kirschsieper.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-6: 3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State. My rank: #18.
Slot value: $6.04 million. Signing bonus: $6 million ($37,500 below slot value).
I'll be honest, of all the picks in the first round, this one left me scratching my head the most even if it wasn't necessarily a surprise. Brooks Lee (#5 on my board) has a very similar profile to Jacob Berry (#18 on my board) except that he hits for even more power and provides much more value on defense, and he was still available here and wound up signing for $300,000 less. Obviously teams look for different things from players and I'm never going to call my board the gospel, but these players being so similar and Lee clearly being better at the same things is just odd to me. If Berry goes on to have a significantly better career than Lee, I can eat my words. Anyways, let's talk about Jacob Berry. He originally began his career at Arizona, where he put up a monster freshman season slashing .352/.439/.676 with 17 home runs, then transferred to LSU as a sophomore. The SEC proved to be no problem for the Phoenix-area native, as he slashed .370/.464/.630 with 15 home runs and a 22/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games as a draft-eligible sophomore whose May birthday makes him the age of a college junior. Berry is a switch hitter, built like a boulder full of solid muscle at 6', 210 pounds. He takes a very simple, direct hack from both sides of the plate with excellent pitch recognition and feel for the barrel. After running a solid 19.5% strikeout rate as a freshman last year, he cut that to 8.9% this spring as he just barreled up everything he saw. Despite the build, he's actually a hit-over-power guy that thrives by his ability to find the barrel. He does not boast the elite top-end exit velocities you typically see at the top of the draft, especially as a first baseman, relying on a high quantity of hard hit balls rather than absolutely crushing it here and there. That means he'll probably move pretty quickly through the minors and he could be up as soon as next season, with the potential to hit 20+ home runs a year with high on-base percentages. Defensively, he manned third base for LSU this spring but probably profiles as a first baseman going forward, with clunky actions at the hot corner and an arm that might be a little bit light. There is also a chance he could crack it in left field. Regardless, he will provide value with his bat and should hit enough to play every day no matter where he winds up. It's a very solid mid to late first round profile, but the Marlins are really, really banking on his above average raw power showing up with wood bats to pick him in the top ten without a discount. So far, he's slashing .230/.327/.333 with two home runs and an 18/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter. 

2-46: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS [OH]. My rank: #39.
Slot value: $1.7 million. Signing bonus: $1.7 million.
I like this pick a lot better, and I'm surprised the Marlins didn't have to go above slot value to sign Jacob Miller away from that Louisville commitment. A second to third round pick heading into the season, he had a fantastic spring that pushed him into late first round conversations, but lasted until the Marlins in the early second round. He saw a velocity bump this spring and sat in the low to mid 90's, touching as high as 99, but he stands out most for his feel for spin. Miller throws a nasty, plus curveball with wicked two-plane bite in addition to a tighter, firmer slider that looks above average and a solid changeup with some run. The 6'2" righty pounds the strike zone with solid average command for a teenager, with a durable frame that should lend itself well to starting. He's not the greatest athlete on the mound, but the present stuff combined with the size and command are plenty enough to over look that. Expect him to miss a ton of bats in the low minors with that power arsenal, and he could be a very solid #3 starter for Miami in time. The central Ohio native should thrive in this system, and here is some really good video giving a taste of what Marlins fans are in for. So far through three short Florida Complex League starts, he has a has allowed five runs (three earned) with three strikeouts to two walks over 3.2 innings.

3-85: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS [MO]. My rank: #91.
Slot value: $747,100. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($752,900 above slot value).
39 picks later, Karson Milbrandt got nearly as much to sign away from his Vanderbilt commitment as Miller did from his Louisville commitment. Milbrandt from Liberty, like Miller from Liberty Union, had a strong spring that moved him up about a round or so. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, a couple ticks behind Miller, but he does get much more life on the pitch with huge spin rates and plenty of running action. His slider and curveball took a step forward this spring and both now flash above average, while his changeup is inconsistent but solid. Milbrandt comes from a low three quarters slot that makes for a very deceptive look, making for a very enticing profile that the Marlins can get creative with. There is plenty of projection in his 6'2" frame and he moves well on the mound, though there is some work to be done to remain a starter. For now, he sometimes struggles to repeat his release point and shows fringy command, which does point to some relief risk. His offspeed stuff taking a step forward does help in that regard, though. If the Marlins can get the Kansas City-area native more consistent with his mechanics and help that offspeed stuff continue on the positive trend it was on, they could have a really interesting arm on their hands.

4-112: RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke. My rank: #152.
Slot value: $543,800. Signing bonus: $510,000 ($33,800 below slot value).
Moving on to the college ranks, the Marlins believe they're buying low on Marcus Johnson, who was in the second round conversation entering the season. He was excellent out of the Duke bullpen as a sophomore last year, with a 3.05 ERA and a 59/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings, then transitioned to the rotation this year with mixed results. His ERA ballooned to 5.61 while he ran a still-solid 76/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 innings, that K rate dipping slightly from 26.5% to 23.8% while his walk rate rose slightly from 5.4% to 7.8%. His fastball touches 97 in short stints but sat more in the low 90's as a starter, coming in with nice riding action that helps it play a little above that velocity when located. He snapped off a plus slider out of the bullpen that looked more above average as a starter, also adding in a solid changeup. With a big, projectable 6'5" frame and a repeatable, short arm delivery that helps him pound the strike zone, he does have what it takes to start even with the more ordinary stuff. Even in the starting role, he did show flashes of that true bat missing stuff and the Marlins believe they can get him showing it more consistently even in those extended outings, which could make him a #3 starter if it all works out. If he does move back to the bullpen, the Southern California native has already proven he can thrive off that fastball/slider combination while controlling at bats and overpowering hitters. So far, he has allowed four runs over 4.1 innings with five strikeouts to four walks in the Florida Complex League.

5-142: RHP Josh White, California. My rank: #200.
Slot value: $406,500. Signing bonus: $406,500.
The Marlins went back to the college ranks in the fifth round to pick up another power arm, taking Josh White out of Cal. He was great as a sophomore in 2021 with a 2.79 ERA and an 81/25 strikeout to walk ratio, but took a step back as a junior with a 5.05 ERA and a 91/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings. White sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for up to 97, coming in with steep angle and some minor running action. He shows feel to spin a breaking ball, flashing above average with both his slider and curveball at his best. The San Francisco Bay Area native does add a changeup, but it's a fourth pitch for now that he doesn't have much feel for. With an upright delivery and average athleticism, he doesn't move as well on the mound as perhaps a guy like Karson Milbrandt or Marcus Johnson, and his command is very inconsistent. The Marlins are buying the arm strength on a guy who has flashes serious bat missing stuff at his best and has thrived at times in the Pac-12, combined with that great feel for spin. The 6'1" righty doesn't come with a ton of projection but could work in as a back-end starter or a breaking ball-heavy reliever, and increased velocity on his fastball could help make up for its lack of life. So far, he has allowed four runs through four innings in the Florida Complex League, striking out six while walking three.

6-172: RHP Jared Poland, Louisville. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $306,400. Signing bonus: $149,000 ($157,400 below slot value).
Jared Poland is the first big money saver to help afford Karson Milbrandt, but he still brings value in his own right. A two-way player early in his Louisville career, he gave up hitting after his sophomore season and saw his pitching take a step forward as a result. 2022 was his best year yet, where he posted a 3.46 ERA and a 103/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 83.1 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up to 96, but it plays below its velocity because he puts steep angle on it with average life. Poland makes his money on his offspeed pitches, including an above average slider with deep bite and a solid average changeup. The 6' righty locates his stuff well and loves to go right after hitters, helping his stuff play up further except when his fastball catches too much plate. A senior sign that will turn 23 this offseason, the Marlins will want him to move a little quicker and he may fit best in a bullpen role, where he can pitch off his offspeed stuff and add a tick to that generic fastball. It's not too dissimilar a profile to Josh White a pick earlier, except that he's a year older with better command. He has thrown 2.2 shutout innings so far in the Florida Complex League, striking out two and walking three.

12-352: LHP Cole Kirschsieper, Illinois. My rank: #186.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $125,000.
This pick could be a very interesting sleeper, especially in an organization that develops pitching as well as the Marlins do. Cole Kirschsieper rose to prominence with a flat out incredible run through last summer, in which he played in the Appalachian League, with the US Collegiate National Team, and in the Cape Cod League, where he regularly faced elite competition. Between the three, he allowed just one earned run over 36 innings (0.25 ERA) and struck out 54 against 17 walks, putting himself firmly on my radar entering the season. While he couldn't quite build off that success, he was still solid at Illinois this spring and posted a 3.17 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 82.1 innings. Kirschsieper doesn't throw all that hard, sitting around 90 and touching 93, so he'll need to add velocity. The slider is average with some sweeping action, while his above average changeup misses bats and keeps hitters off balance. The 5'11" lefty comes from a deceptive, low three quarters slot that makes all of his stuff play up, working east-west and commanding everything pretty well. He does not presently throw hard enough to get major league hitters out, so adding at least a tick of velocity if not a little more will be very important. Beyond that, sharpening his offspeed pitches would be useful, but they're playable now. If the Chicago-area native moves to the bullpen, he has enough life on his fastball to play well with only a small uptick to perhaps 91-93 as opposed to the 89-91 he sits around now being very useful. Despite being on the smaller side, I would like to see how he can play in the rotation for now. He's looked good so far, with three shutout innings in the Florida Complex League with four strikeouts and no walks.

14-412: 1B Torin Montgomery, Missouri. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $75,000.
The Marlins drafted Torin Montgomery in the 35th round out of high school in 2019, and three years later they got their guy. He began his college career at Boise State but transferred to Missouri after one season, and in 2022 he caught fire at the plate, slashing .362/.456/.542 with seven home runs and a 37/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games. Big and strong at 6'3", 230 pounds, he can really smoke a baseball with the best of them, showing plus raw power in the tank although he doesn't tap it very often. For now, he hits the ball on the ground too much and doesn't elevate with as much authority as he's capable of, so working on getting more loft into his swing will be important in his development. Not just a pure slugger, Montgomery makes a lot of contact from the right side and rarely swings and misses, though he can be a tad aggressive. It's a very enticing bat with the right development, and he'll have to hit because he's limited to first base defensively. The Seattle-area native doesn't run all that well and looks like a potential platoon/bench bat in the future. So far, he's slashing .259/.341/.407 with two home runs and a 23/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games between the Florida Complex League and Low A Jupiter.

16-472: SS Brett Roberts, Florida State. My rank: #217.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $100,000.
The Marlins finally came home to the Sunshine State in the sixteenth round, grabbing Brett Roberts out of Florida State. Roberts is not a native Floridian, having grown up in Atlanta and beginning his college career at Tennessee Tech, but he adjusted very well to Tallahassee and the ACC slate to land himself in the sixteenth round. In 2022, he slashed .300/.372/.461 with five home runs and a 36/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games, holding down an everyday role for the Seminoles. A pro hitter, he makes a ton of contact from the right side and struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances, regularly putting the ball in play and making the defense work. He uses the whole field and hits it where they ain't, but the overall impact is a question. He produces unremarkable exit velocities and I rarely see him turn on the ball, so most of his power will come to the gaps. An above average runner, he can play all over the field and projects as a solid utility infielder, showing plenty enough range and arm strength to give you confidence at shortstop. He's off to a hot start in the Florida Complex League, slashing .256/.333/.488 with three home runs and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.

19-562: C Carmine Lane, South Florida. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Carmine Lane represents the one and only player from South Florida in the Marlins' draft class. A native of Lake Worth about sixty miles north of downtown Miami, he attended American Heritage High School in Delray Beach before matriculating north to USF in Tampa. He has gotten better and better each year there, including a huge 2022 in which he slashed .332/.390/.523 with ten home runs and a 38/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. He takes huge, healthy hacks from the right side that help him really stroke the ball to the pull side, but he still ran a solid 14.3% strikeout rate with strong bat to ball skills. He may need to tone down his approach just a little bit as he moves from the AAC to pro ball, but his combination of leverage and bat to ball skills aren't easy to find in the second to last round of the draft. Interestingly, the Marlins drafted him as a catcher despite having played every single position on the diamond except catcher for USF, even pitching 2.1 innings as a freshman. I'm not entirely sure what Miami intends to do with him defensively, but he played mostly third base for the Bulls and showed off a strong arm that would work well behind the plate. He's hitless with three strikeouts in six at bats so far in the Florida Complex League, but has drawn two walks.

2022 MLB Draft: One potential hometown pick for every AL/NL Central Team

This is the second installment in the three part hometown pick series, following the AL and NL West (you can now find the AL/NL East here). If you've followed me for any amount of time, you probably know that I love a good hometown pick. Over the offseason, I recreated all thirty teams if they only used players from their "home turf," and last year I practiced this same exercise for the draft. Last year, the central divisions actually followed along somewhat, with the Royals taking both Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) and Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS) out of the Kansas City area and the Brewers drafting Oak Creek native Alex Binelas out of Louisville, though they lost their good standing by almost immediately trading him to Boston. With that, let's look at some hometown pick options for the AL and NL Central.

Chicago Cubs: 3B Estevan Moreno, Montini Catholic HS, Lombard, IL
Hometown: Hanover Park, IL. My rank: #95.
Two years ago, the Cubs drafted shortstop Ed Howard out of Mount Carmel HS on the South Side, and they'll have plenty of opportunities to do it again this year. Their #7 overall pick is probably a little bit too early to grab Oswego native Noah Schultz, who figures to go somewhere in the middle to back of the first round if signable, but head a little bit north and east and you have Hanover Park's Estevan Moreno, who is having a strong spring at Montini Catholic HS in Lombard. I'm a big fan of Moreno, who could fit somewhere in the third to fifth round range for the Cubs if they want to keep him home rather than let him move on to Notre Dame for school. He does a lot of things well at the plate, using an all fields approach that effectively helps him put barrel to baseball with regularity. Come into his wheelhouse, though, and there is plenty of strength in his 6'2" to really turn on the ball, and the hope is that in time, he'll learn to spread that power out to all fields. That would create a very favorable offensive profile combining power and a professional approach if it works out. There isn't as much upside on the defensive side, as he's an average athlete that can handle third base for now but will have to work to stay there rather than move to first base or an outfield corner. Moreno is a smart, driven kid that loves baseball and should thrive in a competitive environment in pro ball.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL), RHP Owen Murphy (Riverside-Brookfield HS, Riverside, IL), OF Ryan Cermak (Illinois State via Riverside, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL)

Chicago White Sox: OF Ryan Cermak, Illinois State.
Hometown: Riverside, IL. My rank: #71.
I strongly considered Oswego East HS lefty Noah Schultz here, but even though the White Sox broke their streak of staying on the college side with Indiana high schooler Colson Montgomery last year, I think Schultz might be a hair too risky for them as a high school pitcher coming off a bout with mono. I honestly think he still has a decent chance of ending up on the South Side, but instead I'll go with Illinois State breakout star Ryan Cermak. Cermak attended Riverside-Brookfield High School just west of the Chicago city limits, then after hitting .284/.349/.553 as a sophomore but running up a 25.1% strikeout rate, he has improved significantly in all three slash categories this spring while dropping that strikeout rate. Though he's four inches shorter, he reminds me of Cincinnati's Joey Wiemer a few years ago as a super athlete from a mid-major Midwestern school with tools all over the place. Cermak has plus raw power that he has tapped very consistently against MVC pitching this spring, effectively channeling some moving parts in his load into a very simple, compact right handed swing. He's very aggressive at the plate but he has been at least a little more disciplined this spring, lending hope to an average hit tool. Given his immense athleticism, you may not be surprised to learn he's a plus runner with a plus arm that could be an asset in center field going forward. This seems to be a profile the White Sox could like, maybe not in the first round at pick #26 but potentially in the second round at pick #62 or in the third round at #101 if he slides a bit.
Other options: LHP Noah Schultz (Oswego East HS, IL), SS Ryan Ritter (Kentucky via Tinley Park, IL), 3B/RHP Jack Brannigan (Notre Dame via Orland Park, IL), RHP AJ Izzi (Oswego East HS, IL), LHP Cole Kirschsieper (Illinois via Frankfort, IL)

Cincinnati Reds: RHP Jacob Miller, Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH
Hometown: Baltimore, OH. My rank: #55.
The Reds love their prep bats, but there are none on my radar in that Ohio/Kentucky/Indiana area. They haven't drafted and signed a high school pitcher in any round since Lyon Richardson and Yomil Maysonet in 2018 (a year after Hunter Greene), but with five of the first 94 picks, they have some extra money to play around with and they have two really good options in their extended backyard. I took a good, hard look at Indianapolis righty Andrew Dutkanych, a personal favorite of mine, but ultimately decided to stay in state with another rising righty in Jacob Miller. Miller attends Liberty Union High School in Baltimore, a small Fairfield County town about half an hour southwest of Columbus, where he has been turning heads with a strong spring. Miller has a powerful right arm, sitting in the low to mid 90's and hitting 97 with his fastball, but he makes his money with a wicked curveball that ranks among the best in the class. He also adds a solid slider and changeup, giving him a full arsenal to succeed as a starting pitcher. The 6'2" righty fills up the strike zone well and has a sturdy frame, furthering that starter projection. Miller wasn't quite as consistent later in his high school season and does need to shore up his in-zone command a bit, but it's a very enticing profile for the Reds' picks at #32, #55, and #73. With a Louisville commitment in hand, he's likely to be very expensive at pick #73 and would still likely require an over slot bonus at #55, but Cincinnati has the money if they want to go that route.
Other options: RHP Andrew Dutkanych (Brebeuf Jesuit HS, IN), OF Alec Sayre (Wright State via Dover, OH), C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), 3B Ben Metzinger (Louisville via Louisville, KY), RHP Jared Poland (Louisville via Fishers, IN)

Cleveland Guardians: RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson
Hometown: Marengo, OH. My rank: unranked.
The Guardians like college arms and high school bats. There aren't any big name prep bats in Northern Ohio that I know of (and only one position player, Medina's Luke Raley, from Northern Ohio even appeared in an MLB game in 2021), so we'll go with a college arm. In 2021, Cleveland drafted a whole host of college arms that had gone unselected in the 2020 draft for one reason or another, including with five of their first eight picks, and in this case I have them doing that again in 2022. Mack Anglin could have gone somewhere in the middle of day two had he been signable, but ultimately opted to head back to Clemson and bet on himself. Anglin grew up in the tiny Central Ohio town of Marengo, home to 342 residents between Columbus and Mansfield on I-71, then headed south to Clemson for college. He flashed some of the nastiest pure stuff in the ACC last spring, when he struck out 75 batters over 56.1 innings as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he bet on himself and headed back to school. This year has been more or less much of the same, so if Cleveland wants to bring him back home, he probably figures once more somewhere in the middle of day two. Anglin runs his fastball into the mid 90's but stands out the most for his ability to spin the ball. His curveball is a plus pitch with vicious spin rates and his slider is a distinct, above average pitch in its own right, giving him numerous big league out pitches with which to attack hitters. Unfortunately, his command has been below average throughout his career and with a high effort delivery and a fringy changeup, he looks ticketed to the bullpen. Given how much starting pitching depth Cleveland has in the minors, they can stomach that and hope his stuff can take yet another step forward in the bullpen. I'd be really interested to see how that plays in short stints.
Other options: RHP Jacob Miller (Liberty Union HS, Baltimore, OH), 3B Zach Dezenzo (Ohio State via Alliance, OH), SS Phillip Glasser (Indiana via Tallmadge, OH), LHP Drake Batcho (Florida International via Warren, OH), SS Cole Young (North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA)

Detroit Tigers: RHP Brock Porter, Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI
Hometown: Milford, MI. My rank: #19.
I strongly considered having some fun and giving the Tigers Porter's battery mate Ike Irish, but ultimately, this was a match made in heaven and could really happen. The Tigers love young, hard throwing pitchers and have a history of drafting them from Beau Burrows to Jackson Jobe. Brock Porter could be next, and he would give them a Metro Detroit native. Porter grew up in Milford, just over thirty miles northwest of downtown in western Oakland County, and he commutes back east to play for the powerhouse Orchard Lake St. Mary's program that produced Alex Mooney last year and also includes Irish, as mentioned. Porter is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, comfortably sitting in the mid 90's and reaching triple digits at his best, with the pitch really jumping on hitters. It's not just a case of him going all out, as he has the arm strength to hold that mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. He throws two breaking balls in a loopy curveball and an inconsistent slider, though the latter flashes plus at its best and the former could tighten into an out pitch as he develops. Unlike most power high school arms, he actually stands out the most for his changeup, a plus pitch that has really dazzled hitters everywhere he's gone. Also unlike most preps that throw as hard as he does, the 6'4" righty does a good job of filling up the strike zone, though he does need to get a bit better about hitting his spots. Still, when you throw that hard, you don't have to be perfect. Porter has a clean, athletic delivery, but there is some head whack to be cognizant of. One small drawback in the profile is age, as he turns 19 more than a month before the draft and is older than some college freshmen. It will be expensive to buy him out of a Clemson commitment but at pick #12, Detroit shouldn't have to go too far above slot value.
Other options: C Ike Irish (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Hudsonville, MI), OF Gregory Pace (Edison HS, Detroit, MI), RHP Andrew Taylor (Central Michigan via Alto, MI), OF Nolan Schubart (Orchard Lake St. Mary's HS, MI via Durand, MI), OF Clark Elliott (Michigan via Barrington, IL)

Kansas City Royals: RHP Karson Milbrandt, Liberty HS, MO
Hometown: Liberty, MO. My rank: #123.
Last year, the Royals not only drafted the Ben Kudrna (Blue Valley Southwest HS), hometown pick I gave them in last year's article, they also made it double and grabbed Carter Jensen (Park Hill HS) as well. This year, I'll go back to the high school ranks again and put Karson Milbrandt on their radar, who is having a nice spring at Liberty High School northeast of the city. He stands out first and foremost for his fastball, typically a low 90's pitch that has gotten up to 96 this year. Coming from a low arm slot, the pitch features huge spin rates and a ton of arm side run, making it one of the tougher fastballs to square up in the class. He's gotten more consistent with his offspeed stuff this year, showing an above average slider and flipping in an average curveball. His changeup is behind, which isn't uncommon for prep arms, but we have the chance for a full starter's arsenal from a unique slot. Milbrandt's command comes and goes and there is certainly reliever risk, especially combined with the lower slot and his smaller 6'1" frame, but he's on the younger side having only turned 18 in April and has time to fill out. Perhaps most importantly for Kansas City, his Vanderbilt commitment will make him an expensive sign, especially if they wait until their third round pick to grab him. High school pitchers are unpredictable, but the second round feels a bit rich for right now.
Other options: 2B Robert Moore (Arkansas via Leawood, KS), RHP Jacob Misiorowski (Crowder JC via Grain Valley, MO), RHP Ben Bybee (Blue Valley Southwest HS, Overland Park, KS), LHP Jake Bennett (Oklahoma via Bixby, OK), RHP Carter Rustad (Missouri via Kansas City, MO)

Milwaukee Brewers: SS Gavin Kilen, Milton HS, WI
Hometown: Milton, WI. My rank: #53.
Like the Royals, the Brewers took my advice and drafted last year's hometown pick Alex Binelas (Oak Creek native) in the third round, though they promptly traded him to Boston in the Hunter Renfroe deal. They like their young hitters and have seen some success from guys like Felix Valerio, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Jackson Chourio, even if they're still waiting on Garrett Mitchell and Hedbert Perez to find their groove. For that reason, there's a chance they could go out to that I-90 corridor and grab Gavin Kilen out of Milton High School just north of Janesville. Kilen can really, really play, utilizing a very mature approach at the plate and strong bat to ball skills to make contact as consistently as anybody in the class outside of that top tier. He also plays a slick shortstop with plenty of range. One the down side, the Milton native is far from the most physical player in the class, with a skinny 5'11" frame that does not produce much power to this point, especially since he's more focused on all fields, line drive contact. Kilen also has some arm strength, but not quite the cannon teams look for at shortstop and he may fit better at second base, where he would be above average. Coming into the season, Kilen and potential top five pick Jackson Holliday were very fairly similar players, but Holliday has gotten much stronger and had an electric spring while Kilen has underwhelmed just a touch. If his ends up being a late bloomer physically like Holliday, he could end up an extremely well-rounded player in the end. Committed to Louisville like so many others from the area in recent years, he could go get stronger with the Cardinals, but it would be fun to see the Brewers jump on him in the second or CBB round.
Other options: LHP Connor Prielipp (Alabama via Tomah, WI), 3B Max Wagner (Clemson via Green Bay, WI), OF Tommy Specht (Wahlert Catholic HS, Dubuque, IA), RHP Jack Washburn (Mississippi via Webster, WI), C Drake Baldwin (Missouri State via Madison, WI)

Minnesota Twins: RHP Adam Mazur, Iowa
Hometown: Woodbury, MN. My rank: #32.
There are two Washington County products that figure to go in the top fifty or so picks in this draft between Tennessee's Drew Gilbert and Iowa's Adam Mazur. Minnesota's second round pick doesn't roll around until #48 and may not get a shot at either, but between the two, Mazur is probably more likely to be available (getting blown up by Indiana recently doesn't hurt his chances of reaching #48 either). The pick would make sense, too, after the Twins spent last year's second round pick on another funky Big Ten arm in Michigan's Steven Hajjar. Mazur went to Woodbury High School in St. Paul's eastern suburbs, where he played against nearby Stillwater High School's stars Gilbert and Will Frisch (now at Oregon State) and alongside Marlins top prospect Max Meyer. He's well-travelled throughout the Upper Midwest, having begun his career at South Dakota State before transferring back east to Iowa, where he's seen his stock rise significantly. Mazur sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and gets up to 97 with arm side run, while a plus slider with deep bite is his best secondary. He also shows a solid curveball and changeup, giving him a full arsenal. The 6'4" righty is plenty projectable and is really growing into his body well, getting more consistent with his mechanics and improving his command along the way. He has a chance to be an impact starting pitcher and he could do so at home in Minnesota.
Other options: OF Drew Gilbert (Tennessee via Stillwater, MN), RHP Will Frisch (Oregon State via Stillwater, MN), 1B Peyton Williams (Iowa via Johnston, IA), 3B Mac Horvath (North Carolina via Rochester, MN), RHP Seth Halvorsen (Tennessee via Plymouth, MN)

Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Cole Young, North Allegheny HS, Wexford, PA
Hometown: Wexford, PA. My rank: #36.
The Pirates went all out last year when they had the largest bonus pool and signed Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler to massive over slot bonuses, and this year they can be aggressive again with the fourth largest pool of any team and three of the first 44 picks. While Cole Young won't be in play at the fourth overall pick, he makes sense as a reasonable over slot candidate at #36 or #44 if he wants to stay home. Young attends North Allegheny High School in Wexford, a northern suburb of Pittsburgh within a few miles of David Bednar's Mars Area High School and Neil Walker's Pine-Richland High School. In stark contrast to fellow prep shortstops Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, and Max Martin, Young has seen his stock hold extremely steady throughout the cycle, a testament to his simple, consistent style of play. He's a very heady ballplayer that makes, you guessed it, very consistent hard contact at the plate, using a line drive approach that serves him just as well against high-octane showcase arms as it does against the Pittsburgh-area high school competition back home. He finds the sweet spot regularly on pitches inside and outside the zone, handling velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. While that contact-over-power approach does limit his game power a bit, he produces higher exit velocities than you'd expect given his skinny six foot frame when he does decide to turn on one. Young is also a strong defender with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further adding to his value. Committed to Duke, he will likely be an expensive sign.
Other options: OF Paxton Kling (Central HS, Roaring Spring, PA), RHP Jake Madden (Northwest Florida State JC via Enola, PA), C Matt Wood (Penn State via Gibsonia, PA), OF Derek Orndorff (Liberty via Mill Run, PA), RHP Cameron Weston (Michigan via Canonsburg, PA)

St. Louis Cardinals: 3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas
Hometown: Greenbrier, AR. My rank: #62.
It's a down year for talent in the Eastern Missouri/Southern Illinois region this year, so I had to cast my net a little wider to bring a hometown pick to St. Louis. Living in Texas, I've learned that Arkansas (especially northern and eastern Arkansas) is deep Cardinals country, so I feel perfectly good going down to the Natural State to grab Cayden Wallace as the Cardinals' hometown pick. Wallace grew up in the small town of Greenbrier, about 45 minutes north of Little Rock and five and a half hours southwest of Busch Stadium. He was a big time prospect at Greenbrier High School that was good enough to hear his name called in the five round draft in 2020, but signability led him to Fayetteville instead where he has built his stock further. Seen as mostly a power hitter in high school, Wallace got on base at a .369 clip as a true freshman and .352 in the Cape Cod League and is now flirting with .400 this season as of this writing. He still possesses plus raw power from the right side, capable of producing big exit velocities and putting the ball out to all fields. Wallace is still learning pitch selection and can be susceptible to offspeed stuff, but he's improving and his ability to keep his barrel long through the zone helps him limit his strikeouts to a reasonable number. His future position is up in the air, as his cannon arm alone gives him a shot at third base, but he still has some work to do with the glove if he wants to stay there. He runs well for his size and could be a solid defender in right field. The Cardinals like these more or less complete college bats with some pop, so it would not be surprising to see Wallace head across the border to St. Louis. It seems unlikely they would bite with their 22nd overall pick unless he catches fire through the postseason, but if he's still available at pick #59, it would make a lot of sense. He probably fits about a dozen or so picks before that on talent alone but signability may play a factor as he's sophomore eligible and does not turn 21 until August.
Other options: C Dalton Rushing (Louisville via Brighton, TN), LHP Bradley Loftin (DeSoto Central HS, Southaven, MS), OF Kevin Graham (Mississippi via O'Fallon, MO), C Jimmy Obertop (Michigan via St. Louis, MO), RHP Collin Baumgartner (SIU Edwardsville via Brighton, IL)