The Giants' farm system was in pretty dire condition at this time last year, but a number of breakouts make this a greatly improved system. Up at the top, Conner Menez and Sean Hjelle now give Logan Webb a serious run for the top MLB-ready pitching prospect in the system, while Seth Corry's breakout down in A ball might be the most important among all the pitchers. On the offensive side, Heliot Ramos got it figured out like we all knew he would, but the real story of perhaps the entire farm system has been the success of the recent international signees. Franklin Labour (2015) and Alexander Canario (2016) put it all together in big breakout seasons, while Marco Luciano, Jairo Pomares, Luis Matos, and Victor Bericoto (all 2018) took complex ball by storm to make that 2018 international class look like a gold mine. However, the reality is aside from that trio of pitchers (Menez, Hjelle, and Webb) and a couple of guys like Ramos, Joey Bart, and Mauricio Dubon the vast majority of the talent in this system is a long way off.
Affiliates: AAA Sacramento River Cats, AA Richmond Flying Squirrels, High A San Jose Giants, Class A Augusta GreenJackets, short season Salem-Keizer Volcanos, complex level AZL and DSL Giants
Catcher
- Joey Bart (2020 Age: 23): Bart vaulted himself to the top of the 2018 draft with a huge junior season at Georgia Tech, ultimately going second overall to the Giants. In 2019, he slashed .278/.328/.495 with 16 home runs and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 games at High A San Jose and AA Richmond. He has a ton of pop from the right spot and he has proven he can get to it consistently, and it could ultimately translate to 25-30 or more home runs annually in the majors. His weak spot on offense is his hit tool, which he has worked hard to improve from below average to nearly average. He's still a free swinger and his plate discipline remains so-so, but he's trending in the right direction and it shouldn't be a problem at the major league level. Defensively, he's also trending in the right direction and he's now considered an above average defender behind the plate, and the whole package should make the Atlanta-area native a more than fitting replacement for Buster Posey, another Georgia native.
- Aramis Garcia (2020 Age: 27): It ain't easy when you're blocked by Buster Posey at your position and coming up behind you is arguably the best catching prospect in the game. Garcia spent most of 2019 at AAA Sacramento, where he slashed .271/.343/.488 with 16 home runs and a 114/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games, and he's also slashed .229/.270/.419 with six home runs and a 52/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in his major league career between 2018 and 2019. That major league line is roughly what we can expect out of Garcia over the long run, if possibly a bit on the low side. He has good pop for a catcher and is capable of hitting 15-20 home runs annually, but he's a free swinger that has a few holes in his swing, so I wouldn't expect high on-base percentages. He would fit in as a solid back-up catcher for both Posey and Bart, though if he goes elsewhere and makes some adjustments in his approach, he may be able to start.
- Ricardo Genoves (2020 Age: 20-21): Genoves has always been known to scouts as a glove-first catcher who may or may not hit, but he did hit in 2019 and that's a good sign going forward. In 51 games, he slashed .265/.335/.469 with nine home runs and a 41/17 strikeout to walk ratio at short season Salem-Keizer and Class A Augusta, tapping into that moderate raw power he packs into his 6'2" frame and getting to the barrel often enough to be a productive hitter. It's hard to say whether those gains will translate up into the mid and upper minors, but he did slash .292/.361/.446 in his 19 games at Class A and he doesn't turn 21 until May. His glove will buy his bat plenty of time, and he projects as a back-up catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Brandon Martorano
Corner Infield
- Chris Shaw (2020 Age: 26): Shaw finds himself in a somewhat similar position to Aramis Garcia in that he's blocked by Brandon Belt at his primary position, though he doesn't have a Joey Bart coming up behind him. This year, Shaw slashed .294/.360/.559 with 28 home runs and a 111/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, and like Garcia, he's spent parts of two seasons in the majors, slashing .153/.244/.222 with one home run in 38 games. The Boston College product has a lot of raw pop from the left side of the plate, and while he's been able to get to it in the upper minors, that hasn't been the case yet at the major league level. Always a free swinger, major league pitchers have exploited holes in Shaw's swing, much like they have with Garcia, and while he has more power than his catching counterpart, he doesn't provide nearly as much defensive value. He's fine as a first baseman, but the Giants have Belt there and he's worked to mediocre results in left field. He ultimately projects as a Matt Adams-like platoon bat.
- Logan Wyatt (2020 Age: 22): Wyatt was a second round pick out of Louisville this year, and I think he might be one of the better Day One bargains. Pushed across three levels in his brief pro debut, he slashed .278/.388/.377 with three home runs and a 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games in the complex level Arizona League, at short season Salem-Keizer, and at Class A Augusta. Unlike all of the other names you've read here so far, he's an extremely patient hitter, and his excellent plate discipline helps him put up high on-base percentages while also handling advanced pitching. However, he's a first baseman who has still not proven he can hit for power, as he's 6'4" with great feel for the barrel but seems content with just lacing the ball into the dirt. If Wyatt joins the launch angle revolution over his first pro offseason and comes out lifting the ball in the spring, watch out – he could hit 20-25 home runs annually with those high on-base percentages and replace Brandon Belt as a very similar player.
- Luis Toribio (2020 Age: 19): Toribio spent most of 2019 down in the complex level Arizona League, and he slashed .296/.433/.454 with three home runs and a 59/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games between there and three games with Salem-Keizer. He's an extremely patient hitter with good knowledge of the strike zone, especially for his age (he only turned 19 in September), and combining his high walk rates with very good feel for the barrel should help him post high on-base percentages in the majors. It's not yet known what kind of power he'll hit for, but he's got a projectable frame at 6'1" and he generates a lot of torque in his left handed swing, so more is certainly possible if not likely. He has high upside and with the way that fellow international signees Franklin Labour, Marco Luciano, and Alexander Canario broke out this year, he most certainly could be next.
- Keep an eye on: Zach Green, David Villar, Jacob Gonzalez, Garrett Frechette, Victor Bericoto
Middle Infield
- Mauricio Dubon (2020 Age: 25-26): This guy has been around forever. A 26th round pick by the Red Sox out of a Sacramento high school in 2013, Dubon was traded to the Brewers in the Travis Shaw/Tyler Thornburg deal following the 2016 season and then to the Giants for Drew Pomeranz at the 2019 deadline. After missing most of 2018 with an ACL injury, he got back on his feet this year and slashed .302/.345/.477 with 20 home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games between the two AAA affiliates and also hit .274/.306/.434 with four home runs over 30 major league games. While he popped 25 home runs overall in 2019, that might set power expectations a bit higher than they should be, as the Pacific Coast League is extremely hitter-friendly and his build is more conducive to 10-15 home runs per year. He does show good feel for the barrel and has hit for high averages and on-base percentages everywhere he's gone, and he profiles well with good defense at second base and playable defense at shortstop. A plus runner before the ACL injury, it may have sapped some of his speed but he was still safely above average in that regard in his debut. If the Giants don't go out and sign a second baseman this offseason, Dubon should be able to take over as the starter on Opening Day and could put up a slash line similar to the .274/.306/.434 mark he had last season.
- Marco Luciano (2020 Age: 18): This is one of the most exciting young prospects in the system. Signed for $2.6 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, he skipped the DSL entirely and went straight to the complex-level Arizona League as a 17 year old in 2019, and all he did was slash .322/.438/.616 with ten home runs and a 39/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. He earned a late promotion to short season Salem-Keizer, where he was one of the youngest players in the league and slashed .212/.316/.333 with six strikeouts to five walks in nine games. Very athletically built at 6'2", he has a sweet right handed swing that produces nice leverage and power, which he combines with advanced plate discipline to consistently find pitches to attack and drive. For now, he's a shortstop with a strong arm and he has a good chance to stay there, but there's a chance he moves to third base down the line. For now, Luciano has everything going for him as a young prospect with no clear holes in his game, and he has one of the highest ceilings in the system.
- Tyler Fitzgerald (2020 Age: 22): It took Fitzgerald's highly regarded bat a few years to get going once he got to Louisville, but a big junior year pushed him into the fourth round in 2019 and he slashed .276/.358/.395 with one home run, six stolen bases, and a 41/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games across three levels up to Class A Augusta. That line is just about accurate. He's not going to wow you with any big tools, but he's a competent hitter with some gap power who should grow into moderate home run power while getting on base at a solid clip. Defensively, he should be able to stick at shortstop, though his profile perfectly fits that of a utility infielder. If he has to move over to third base, Luis Toribio and maybe Jacob Gonzalez are his only real competition, unless of course if Marco Luciano slides over there as well. He should move through the minors relatively quickly.
- Keep an eye on: Abiatal Avelino, Jalen Miller, Dilan Rosario
Outfield
- Heliot Ramos (2020 Age: 20): A first round pick out of Puerto Rico in 2017, Ramos' first full season at Class A Augusta in 2018 was a bit disappointing (.245/.313/.395), but he broke out in a big way in 2019. Playing at High A San Jose, where he was one of the younger players in the California League, he slashed .306/.385/.500 with 13 home runs and an 85/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games to earn a promotion to AA Richmond at just 19 years old. There, he added three more home runs and slashed .242/.321/.421 over 25 games, which is still impressive given his age. He's an explosive player with power, speed, and a strong arm in the outfield, giving him a classic right field profile if he has to move out of center. There are still raw elements to his game, as he still has some swing and miss and hasn't proven himself against advanced pitching. That's okay because very few 20 year olds have, and just tightening up his strike zone judgement and finding the barrel a little more could make him a 25 homer bat in the majors with some speed and good defense.
- Hunter Bishop (2020 Age: 21-22): Bishop rode an absolutely massive breakout season at Arizona State (22 HR, .342/.479/.748) to a first round draft selection, and the Giants are happy to bring home the kid from San Mateo who attended Junipero Serra High School. He had a relatively quiet pro debut, slashing .229/.438/.429 with five home runs and a 39/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer, but he did show some pop as well as stronger than expected plate discipline. He has a ton of power in his 6'5" frame, but questions loom over his ability to get to it consistently against advanced pitching as it never showed up in the Cape Cod League and didn't come often against Pac-12 pitching. He's a very patient hitter, which helps him maximize that power and get his pitches to drive, and he's trending in the right direction. With continued improvement in his hit tool, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, and he has enough speed to stick in center field. Overall, he could provide a lot of value on both sides of the ball.
- Sandro Fabian (2020 Age: 22): Fabian did a much better job in his second crack at High A, as he slashed just .200/.260/.325 as a 20 year old there in 2018 but bumped his line up to .287/.353/.413 with five home runs and a 33/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games there this year (plus a .219/.366/.500 line and two home runs in ten games in complex ball rehab). He's not going to hit for a ton of power, but he has good feel for the barrel from the right side and his plate discipline is improving to the point where he could be a useful fourth outfielder in the relatively near future. He's a good defender that should be able to handle all three spots, and if he can stay healthy consistently, he could hit around ten home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Alexander Canario (2020 Age: 19-20): Canario signed for just $60,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016 but he's already smashing expectations, and his breakout 2019 saw him slash .318/.377/.623 with 16 home runs and an 80/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games between the Arizona League and Salem-Keizer. He always had power potential, but he finally grew into it in 2019 and crushed balls all over the park both in complex and short season ball as a teenager with 38 extra base hits in 59 games. He's still a bit raw at the plate and can be overly aggressive, so full season ball will be a big test in 2020, but it's hard not to be excited about the big power and good feel for the barrel that he has. He should hit 20+ home runs annually in the majors while playing good defense in the outfield.
- Franklin Labour (2020 Age: 21-22): Perhaps even more under the radar than Canario was Franklin Labour, who signed for just $70,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 before spending three years in complex ball. Up at Salem-Keizer in 2019, he smashed 14 home runs in 41 games and slashed .307/.392/.639 with a 43/18 strikeout to walk ratio before being promoted to Class A Augusta, where he was a bit overmatched and hit .215/.282/.299 with one home run and a 40/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games. He generates a ton of power and leverage from his right handed swing, and he got to it remarkably consistently in short season ball. However, as with Canario, the real test has to be full season ball, where he struggled in 2019. He's older than Canario and I'm less confident that his hit tool will translate up, but he has the upside as a power hitting left fielder.
- Jairo Pomares (2020 Age: 19-20)/Luis Matos (2020 Age: 18): I'm choosing to lump these guys together because they're both far, far away but have similar profiles and started their pro careers with a bang. Pomares, a Cuban import, slashed .368/.401/.542 in 37 Arizona League games but fell to .207/.258/.259 in 17 short season games with Salem-Keizer, while Matos, from Venezuela, hit .362/.430/.570 in 55 Dominican Summer League games before putting up a .438/.550/.500 line in five Arizona League games. Pomares stands 6'1", but it was the 5'11" Matos who showed more power in his pro debut, and both have shown exceptional bat to ball skills for their age while spraying line drives all over the park. Matos especially has shown very advanced plate discipline for his age, as he doesn't even turn 18 until January, and both are above average runners who have the ability to stick in center field. Pomares is more highly regarded at this point, but a part of me likes Matos better and wants to put my money on him.
- Keep an eye on: Bryce Johnson, Heath Quinn, Diego Rincones, Grant McCray, P.J. Hilson
Starting Pitching
- Logan Webb (2020 Age: 23): Somewhat of a hometown guy, Webb grew up in Rocklin, a Sacramento suburb, and had his breakout year in 2018 (2.41 ERA, 100/47 K/BB) four years after he was drafted. However, it turned out he was juicing and he was suspended for 80 games in 2019, but the results were still good; overall, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 69/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 63.1 innings across four levels, and he reached the majors in August and posted a 5.22 ERA and a 37/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.2 innings. He sits in the low to mid 90's and gets a ton of ground balls with that fastball, and he adds a power slider that has missed bats in bunches. His changeup is coming along and should be usable, and with his solid command, he should be able to make it as a #3 or #4 starter at the major league level if he can continue to refine that changeup. A move to the bullpen is not completely out of the question, but he's proven enough recently to earn a long look in the major league rotation.
- Conner Menez (2020 Age: 24-25): Born and raised in Hollister, which is just south of the Bay Area off 101, Menez was drafted in the 14th round out of The Master's University in 2016 and was all the way up in High A San Jose by the end of the year. However, it was 2019 that was his breakout season, as he posted a 3.79 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 154/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 innings at AA Richmond and AAA Sacramento, the latter of which was an extremely hitter-friendly context. He also made eight major league appearances with a 5.29 ERA and a 22/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings. He's a 6'3" lefty that sits in the low 90's with his fastball, two breaking balls, and a changeup, but everything plays up because he gets good angle on his pitches to create deception and a high spin rate to miss bats. His command has improved steadily as he's risen through the minors, and while he'll never be a pinpoint guy, he throws enough strikes now to be successful. Menez isn't a future ace but I feel like I'd be selling him short by describing him as just another #4 starter.
- Sean Hjelle (2020 Age: 22-23): It's hard to miss Hjelle (pronounced "jelly") on the baseball field, because he stands 6'11" and would match Jon Rauch as the tallest player ever if he makes the majors. However, after being drafted in the second round out of Kentucky in 2018, it was his performance on the mound that made him stand out even more. This year, he had a 3.32 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings across three levels all the way up to AA Richmond. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but it gets on hitters quick due to his exceptionally long arms, and he adds a very good curveball that gets swings and misses. However, his best trait as a pitcher is his command, as he's walked just 41 batters in 165 pro innings so far and he can spot all of his pitches well. I'm not completely sold on Hjelle as an impact starter yet, but he has the chance to be a #3 starter with a more likely outcome as a #4 or #5.
- Seth Corry (2020 Age: 21): Corry was more of a projection guy than anything else when he was drafted in the third round out of a Utah high school in 2017, but that projection began to bear fruit in a breakout 2019. This year, he posted a 1.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 172/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings at Class A Augusta, showing greatly improved command to go with his power stuff. A 6'2" lefty, he's still likely below average with that command, but he's made enough progress that his low 90's fastball and excellent power curve can play up and miss bats by the bunches. There's still a lot more work to be done, but he's well on his way to reaching his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter if he can tighten that command up a little more and continue to improve his changeup.
- Jake Wong (2020 Age: 23): Drafted one round after Hjelle out of Grand Canyon University, Wong had a solid first full season by posting a 3.90 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 101/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings between Class A Augusta and High A San Jose. His mid 90's fastball is his best attribute, and he adds an improving curveball and changeup to the mix, but it all plays down somewhat because his command is fringy and he lacks deception. I see him more as a reliever, where his fastball/curveball combination could sharpen and where he'll need less deception, but continued refinement of his command could make him a solid mid to back-end starter.
- Matt Frisbee (2020 Age: 23): A 15th round pick out of UNC-Greensboro in 2018, Frisbee was originally thought of as a reliever and was successfully used in that role in his pro debut last year (2.96 ERA, 36/13 K/BB). However, he transitioned back to the rotation in 2019 and the results were tremendous, as he posted a 3.13 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 154/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.1 innings at Augusta and San Jose. It's hard to find video or updated scouting reports on him, but coming out of college he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball but needed work on his secondaries. I can't confirm but I would guess that they took a step forward in 2019, as did his command, which went from solid to very good. A 6'5" righty, he has the chance to leapfrog some of the more highly-touted names on this list like Beck and Wong.
- Trevor McDonald (2020 Age: 19): The Giants have had a lot of success in their rotation with pitchers from Alabama (Tim Hudson, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy), and just a few miles over the border in George County, Mississippi, they grabbed 6'2" righty Trevor McDonald in the 2019 draft. McDonald only threw four pro innings in 2019 with a 2.25 ERA and eight strikeouts to two walks in complex ball, and he's all upside. He sits in the low 90's for now but with an incredibly quick arm, he could easily add velocity and get into the mid 90's, and he adds three offspeed pitches. They're all inconsistent for now, but he has shown a very strong feel for pitching, and he's the kind of guy who could take off with pro instruction. On the checklist are proving durability and getting more consistent with those secondary pitches, but he's a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Tristan Beck, John Gavin, Kai-Wei Teng, Prelander Berroa
Relief Pitching
- Garrett Williams (2020 Age: 25): What do you make a guy who has posted ERA's of 5.01, 2.32, 6.06, and 3.60 in his four pro seasons, and who was equally inconsistent in college? Williams has always flashed big league stuff, but injuries and control problems have hampered him since his time at Oklahoma State. He can sit anywhere in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and he adds a curveball that is a true out pitch when he's on, but he loses the strike zone regularly and gets hammered when he does. In 2019, he had a 3.60 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 108/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at AA Richmond, and the Giants finally moved him to the bullpen in August, where he had a 2.87 ERA and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.2 innings. This seems like a no-brainer to me, as the combination of injuries+unstable command+inconsistent stuff should be remedied.
- Blake Rivera (2020 Age: 22): Rivera still hopes to be next in the long line of Giants starters from Alabama, though he's looking more and more like a reliever. A fourth round pick out of an Alabama community college in 2018, he posted a 4.32 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and an 87/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 innings between Class A Augusta and complex ball rehab this year. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a very good curveball, but he hasn't proven to be consistent with either his strike throwing ability or his durability. He's still working on those things, and if he takes a step forward with either in 2020, he could stick as a starter, but for now he's looking like he could be a valuable two pitch reliever.
- Gregory Santos (2020 Age: 20): Santos, like Rivera, still has a shot at starting, but he's yet to eclipse 50 innings in a season while he's battled shoulder issues. In 2019, he posted a 2.86 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 26/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings at Augusta, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adding a curveball that looks good at times but which lacks hard bite. He's done a good job throwing strikes in his small samples, which means he could eventually have above average command if he can stay healthy, though durability is a serious question and a move to the bullpen might be in his best interest. Set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old, he'll still have every chance to prove himself as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Melvin Adon, Sam Selman, Caleb Kilian
Showing posts with label Hunter Bishop. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hunter Bishop. Show all posts
Saturday, November 23, 2019
Monday, July 15, 2019
2019 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants
First five rounds: Hunter Bishop (1-10), Logan Wyatt (2-51), Grant McCray (3-87), Tyler Fitzgerald (4-116), Garrett Frechette (5-146)
Also notable: Dilan Rosario (6-176), Trevor McDonald (11-326), Brooks Lee (35-1046), Will Rigney (38-1136)
The Giants employed an interesting draft strategy here, grabbing two elite college bats in the first two rounds before signing a bunch of overslot high schoolers with the $1.1 million they saved on those first two picks. Those two bats, Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt, have a chance to make up the middle of their order for years to come, then they got plenty of upside later on. I particularly see massively overslot eleventh rounder Trevor McDonald, who signed for almost as much as Wyatt, as a sleeper to keep an eye on.
1-10: OF Hunter Bishop (Arizona State, my rank: 10)
Hunter Bishop was projected to possibly go a couple of slots higher, so the Giants were ecstatic when the hometown kid fell to them at pick number ten. Bishop grew up in San Mateo and went to Junipero Serra High School, where he was considered a potential top five round pick and ranked 106th on my list. Instead, he packed it up and went to Arizona State, where he hit just .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore and then .233/.369/.350 with four home runs in 39 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, he put everything together in a huge way in 2019, slashing .342/.479/.748 with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 61/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Sun Devils. Bishop more than quadrupled his home run output while cutting his strikeout rate from 30.3% to 21.8% and bumping his walk rate from 10.9% to 17.9%. He produces a ton of torque with his 6'5" frame, and the fact that he was able to improve his plate discipline so dramatically while adding all that power speaks volumes to the legitimacy of his breakout. However, he slashed just .264/.395/.529 with a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio in conference games, combining with his swing and miss to lead to questions as to just how well his bat will profile at the next level. Despite his size, he's a good defender and may be able to handle center field, and he should be above average in left or right field. Overall, he has a ceiling of 30+ home runs and solid on-base percentages, though he's could become more of a 20-25 home run guy with middling on-base percentages if his swing and miss questions catch up to him. He signed for $4.1 million, which was $640,000 below slot, and he is slashing .250/.375/.550 with a home run and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio through six games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-51: 1B Logan Wyatt (Louisville, my rank: 27)
I really like this pick. I always thought Logan Wyatt was being underrated throughout the lead-up to the draft, and the Giants are going to get borderline first round/comp round value here in the second round (for a third round price tag). Wyatt didn't play much during his freshman year at Louisville but followed a big sophomore season with another big junior season this year, where he slashed .283/.445/.449 with nine home runs and a 48/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, a late season slump dragging down his numbers a bit. Despite the late season slump, I believe in Wyatt's bat. At 6'4", 230 pounds, he's built like a slugger, and he actually slashed .304/.421/.571 in conference play in a tough ACC, as well as .305/.458/.438 with four home runs and more walks (29) than strikeouts (24) on the Cape, which is where my enthusiasm comes from. The kid from just outside of Louisville has an excellent eye at the plate that both helped him perform so well in the ACC as well as on the Cape, and it will continue to help him in pro ball. However, his power plays only average for now, and as a first baseman with little defensive value, that won't cut it in the long run. He has the eye to continue to find the barrel consistently even if the Giants change his swing to help him hit for more power, and with all the walks he draws (21.2% this year), he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with solidly high on-base percentages. However, he did slump at the end of the season and the pressure will be on the bat to develop. He signed for $997,500, which was $442,500 below slot, and he is slashing .450/.500/.500 with three strikeouts to three walks through six games in the Arizona League.
3-87: OF Grant McCray (Lakewood Ranch HS [FL], unranked)
Grant McCray's stock has been rising steadily throughout the spring as he begins to manifest his high upside. He's still very raw, but he's also very athletic and possesses the plus speed that scouts love. That athleticism also plays into his other parts of his game, as he uses his strength to generate leverage on the ball and hit for some power, with possible 20 homer pop in the tank. The Tampa-area high schooler won't move quickly, but he has the chance to develop a power/speed combination that is hard to come by. As a fun aside, his father, Rodney McCray, is famous for crashing through the outfield wall in a 1991 minor league game in Portland and played parts of three seasons in the majors with the White Sox and Mets. Grant signed away from a Florida State commitment for $697,500, which was $8,200 above slot, and he's slashing .206/.365/.265 with a 23/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona League.
4-116: SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville, unranked)
65 picks after grabbing Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt in the second round, the Giants went back to the Cardinals' infield and took shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald in the fourth round. Fitzgerald was a highly regarded recruit who ranked #116 on my 2016 list while in high school near Springfield, Illinois, but he took some time to adjust to college ball and hit just .208/.303/.272 as a freshman and .264/.344/.378 as a sophomore. However, he figured it out as a junior, slashing .315/.391/.483 with eight home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, and that came on the heels of a .298/.370/.415 line over 43 Cape Cod League games. He doesn't stand out in any facet of the game, but he knows how to play and has hit well both on the Cape and in the ACC, so he has a high floor as a utility infielder. However, given his lack of loud skills, he also has a limited ceiling, and he ultimately projects for mediocre to average power with decent on-base percentages. If he can find a way to stick at shortstop, he may be able to start in the long run, but that's not a given and that utility infielder path is by far his most likely one. The fact that he's 6'3" and does have that competency for the game does give him the chance to outplay his current projection and end up as something more. He signed for $495,000, which was $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .281/.351/.438 with a home run and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games between the Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer.
5-146: 1B Garrett Frechette (Orange Lutheran HS [CA], unranked)
Garrett Frechette grew up in San Diego and originally enrolled at Cathedral Catholic High School, famous for producing 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, but he moved up to the LA area for his senior year so he could be a part of the prestigious Orange Lutheran High School program that produced 2011 first overall pick Gerrit Cole (after he went on to UCLA). Frechette's calling card is his bat, but unfortunately, he wasn't quite able to show it off at its full potential this year. He battled a few nagging injuries as well as a bout with mono, and he ultimately did not perform the way scouts were hoping he would. Still, he's 6'3" and shows a quick, strong, left handed swing that produces good power when he's on, and it's easy to love a quick swing with power. Because he's mediocre with the glove and will be confined to first base or left field, the Giants are banking on his bat coming alive with pro coaching and refinement as well as just consistent reps on the field. Committed to San Diego State, he instead signed for $797,500, which was $425,900 above slot, and he's slashing .333/.362/.407 with an 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Arizona League.
6-176: SS Dilan Rosario (Leadership Christian HS [PR], unranked)
Dilan Rosario, like Frechette, comes with a lot of questions with his bat, though that's where the similarities end. The Puerto Rican high schooler has quick hands, but his bat path is somewhat long and causes his hit tool to play down towards average, and at this point he's not strong enough to hit for much power. That's not a very promising outlook for his bat, but the Giants will hope to shorten his swing and get him more directly to the ball, where the 6'2" shortstop can then let whatever power he has come naturally. Defensively, he's very competent and has a good shot to stick at shortstop, and if he's forced off the position, he should still be a plus defender at second or third base. That will buy the bat time, and if he can stick at short, he has a chance to start as a line drive, bottom of the lineup guy, though the more likely outcome is utility infielder. Rosario was committed to Southern California but signed away for $650,000, which was $368,200 above slot, and he's slashing .238/.269/.524 with four home runs and a 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games in the Arizona League. Honestly, complex level statistics don't mean much, but he has still hit for much more power than expected, though that strikeout to walk ratio is a bit scary.
11-326: RHP Trevor McDonald (George County HS [MS], unranked)
Here's a sleeper for you. Trevor McDonald comes from the small town of Lucedale, Mississippi, about halfway between Hattiesburg and Mobile, Alabama, but he's yet another top prospect to come out of George County High School's regionally famous baseball program. McDonald sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has an incredibly loose arm that could easily add some velocity as he gets stronger, and he also adds three inconsistent but present secondary pitches at this point. His slider is the most advanced at this point, but his aptitude for pitching should help him develop all three as well as his command. On the flip side, he's not the most projectable guy with a skinny 6'2" frame, and he has yet to prove his durability at this point. There's a lot of upside here and that's why the Giants signed McDonald away from a South Alabama commitment for $800,000, which counts for $675,000 against their bonus pool.
35-1046: SS Brooks Lee (San Luis Obispo HS [CA], my rank: 41)
As you would expect, Brooks Lee did not sign here, and he'll instead attend Cal Poly and play for his dad in the Mustangs baseball program. Lee's a very interesting prospect and a good spring pushed him into the fringes of the first round discussion and certainly into the competitive balance round discussion, but ultimately he was not signable. The San Luis Obispo native has excellent feel for the game, and it shows on both sides of the ball with his knack for finding the barrel and his consistency in the infield. On the flip side, his swing sucks, to be frank, as he often gets choppy with it and/or leaks out over his front foot, sapping his power. That makes it all the more impressive that he performed well against elite competition on the showcase circuit, and he smooths out his swing either at Cal Poly or in pro ball down the line, he could have a true plus hit tool. He's 6'1" and it remains to be seen how much power comes out of it, though you never know with mechanical changes. Defensively, he's competent enough to handle shortstop, but his athleticism is a little stretched there and he may end up at third base, where he would be a plus defender.
38-1136: RHP Will Rigney (Midway HS [TX], my rank: 94)
Like Lee, Will Rigney will attend his hometown college rather than signing with the Giants, in this case Baylor. Rigney wasn't quite as highly touted as Lee, instead projecting more as an early Day Two pick, but he has high upside as well. The Waco-area native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows an inconsistent slider that can flash true plus, and at 6'5", he's plenty projectable enough to add more velocity. He also uses his big frame to get good angle on the ball, and his command is currently average. However, he fell because a forearm injury kept him out for most of the spring, and if not handled right (or even when handled right), those things can lead to Tommy John surgery. We'll have to see how his health holds up at Baylor, but if he does indeed come back healthy, he could get more consistent with that slider and add a changeup and emerge as a potential first round pick.
Also notable: Dilan Rosario (6-176), Trevor McDonald (11-326), Brooks Lee (35-1046), Will Rigney (38-1136)
The Giants employed an interesting draft strategy here, grabbing two elite college bats in the first two rounds before signing a bunch of overslot high schoolers with the $1.1 million they saved on those first two picks. Those two bats, Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt, have a chance to make up the middle of their order for years to come, then they got plenty of upside later on. I particularly see massively overslot eleventh rounder Trevor McDonald, who signed for almost as much as Wyatt, as a sleeper to keep an eye on.
1-10: OF Hunter Bishop (Arizona State, my rank: 10)
Hunter Bishop was projected to possibly go a couple of slots higher, so the Giants were ecstatic when the hometown kid fell to them at pick number ten. Bishop grew up in San Mateo and went to Junipero Serra High School, where he was considered a potential top five round pick and ranked 106th on my list. Instead, he packed it up and went to Arizona State, where he hit just .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore and then .233/.369/.350 with four home runs in 39 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, he put everything together in a huge way in 2019, slashing .342/.479/.748 with 22 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 61/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games for the Sun Devils. Bishop more than quadrupled his home run output while cutting his strikeout rate from 30.3% to 21.8% and bumping his walk rate from 10.9% to 17.9%. He produces a ton of torque with his 6'5" frame, and the fact that he was able to improve his plate discipline so dramatically while adding all that power speaks volumes to the legitimacy of his breakout. However, he slashed just .264/.395/.529 with a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio in conference games, combining with his swing and miss to lead to questions as to just how well his bat will profile at the next level. Despite his size, he's a good defender and may be able to handle center field, and he should be above average in left or right field. Overall, he has a ceiling of 30+ home runs and solid on-base percentages, though he's could become more of a 20-25 home run guy with middling on-base percentages if his swing and miss questions catch up to him. He signed for $4.1 million, which was $640,000 below slot, and he is slashing .250/.375/.550 with a home run and an 11/4 strikeout to walk ratio through six games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-51: 1B Logan Wyatt (Louisville, my rank: 27)
I really like this pick. I always thought Logan Wyatt was being underrated throughout the lead-up to the draft, and the Giants are going to get borderline first round/comp round value here in the second round (for a third round price tag). Wyatt didn't play much during his freshman year at Louisville but followed a big sophomore season with another big junior season this year, where he slashed .283/.445/.449 with nine home runs and a 48/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, a late season slump dragging down his numbers a bit. Despite the late season slump, I believe in Wyatt's bat. At 6'4", 230 pounds, he's built like a slugger, and he actually slashed .304/.421/.571 in conference play in a tough ACC, as well as .305/.458/.438 with four home runs and more walks (29) than strikeouts (24) on the Cape, which is where my enthusiasm comes from. The kid from just outside of Louisville has an excellent eye at the plate that both helped him perform so well in the ACC as well as on the Cape, and it will continue to help him in pro ball. However, his power plays only average for now, and as a first baseman with little defensive value, that won't cut it in the long run. He has the eye to continue to find the barrel consistently even if the Giants change his swing to help him hit for more power, and with all the walks he draws (21.2% this year), he could be a 20-25 home run hitter with solidly high on-base percentages. However, he did slump at the end of the season and the pressure will be on the bat to develop. He signed for $997,500, which was $442,500 below slot, and he is slashing .450/.500/.500 with three strikeouts to three walks through six games in the Arizona League.
3-87: OF Grant McCray (Lakewood Ranch HS [FL], unranked)
Grant McCray's stock has been rising steadily throughout the spring as he begins to manifest his high upside. He's still very raw, but he's also very athletic and possesses the plus speed that scouts love. That athleticism also plays into his other parts of his game, as he uses his strength to generate leverage on the ball and hit for some power, with possible 20 homer pop in the tank. The Tampa-area high schooler won't move quickly, but he has the chance to develop a power/speed combination that is hard to come by. As a fun aside, his father, Rodney McCray, is famous for crashing through the outfield wall in a 1991 minor league game in Portland and played parts of three seasons in the majors with the White Sox and Mets. Grant signed away from a Florida State commitment for $697,500, which was $8,200 above slot, and he's slashing .206/.365/.265 with a 23/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games in the Arizona League.
4-116: SS Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville, unranked)
65 picks after grabbing Louisville first baseman Logan Wyatt in the second round, the Giants went back to the Cardinals' infield and took shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald in the fourth round. Fitzgerald was a highly regarded recruit who ranked #116 on my 2016 list while in high school near Springfield, Illinois, but he took some time to adjust to college ball and hit just .208/.303/.272 as a freshman and .264/.344/.378 as a sophomore. However, he figured it out as a junior, slashing .315/.391/.483 with eight home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 50/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, and that came on the heels of a .298/.370/.415 line over 43 Cape Cod League games. He doesn't stand out in any facet of the game, but he knows how to play and has hit well both on the Cape and in the ACC, so he has a high floor as a utility infielder. However, given his lack of loud skills, he also has a limited ceiling, and he ultimately projects for mediocre to average power with decent on-base percentages. If he can find a way to stick at shortstop, he may be able to start in the long run, but that's not a given and that utility infielder path is by far his most likely one. The fact that he's 6'3" and does have that competency for the game does give him the chance to outplay his current projection and end up as something more. He signed for $495,000, which was $2,500 below slot, and he's slashing .281/.351/.438 with a home run and a 2/4 strikeout to walk ratio over eight games between the Arizona League and short season Salem-Keizer.
5-146: 1B Garrett Frechette (Orange Lutheran HS [CA], unranked)
Garrett Frechette grew up in San Diego and originally enrolled at Cathedral Catholic High School, famous for producing 2014 first overall pick Brady Aiken, but he moved up to the LA area for his senior year so he could be a part of the prestigious Orange Lutheran High School program that produced 2011 first overall pick Gerrit Cole (after he went on to UCLA). Frechette's calling card is his bat, but unfortunately, he wasn't quite able to show it off at its full potential this year. He battled a few nagging injuries as well as a bout with mono, and he ultimately did not perform the way scouts were hoping he would. Still, he's 6'3" and shows a quick, strong, left handed swing that produces good power when he's on, and it's easy to love a quick swing with power. Because he's mediocre with the glove and will be confined to first base or left field, the Giants are banking on his bat coming alive with pro coaching and refinement as well as just consistent reps on the field. Committed to San Diego State, he instead signed for $797,500, which was $425,900 above slot, and he's slashing .333/.362/.407 with an 11/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Arizona League.
6-176: SS Dilan Rosario (Leadership Christian HS [PR], unranked)
Dilan Rosario, like Frechette, comes with a lot of questions with his bat, though that's where the similarities end. The Puerto Rican high schooler has quick hands, but his bat path is somewhat long and causes his hit tool to play down towards average, and at this point he's not strong enough to hit for much power. That's not a very promising outlook for his bat, but the Giants will hope to shorten his swing and get him more directly to the ball, where the 6'2" shortstop can then let whatever power he has come naturally. Defensively, he's very competent and has a good shot to stick at shortstop, and if he's forced off the position, he should still be a plus defender at second or third base. That will buy the bat time, and if he can stick at short, he has a chance to start as a line drive, bottom of the lineup guy, though the more likely outcome is utility infielder. Rosario was committed to Southern California but signed away for $650,000, which was $368,200 above slot, and he's slashing .238/.269/.524 with four home runs and a 29/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games in the Arizona League. Honestly, complex level statistics don't mean much, but he has still hit for much more power than expected, though that strikeout to walk ratio is a bit scary.
11-326: RHP Trevor McDonald (George County HS [MS], unranked)
Here's a sleeper for you. Trevor McDonald comes from the small town of Lucedale, Mississippi, about halfway between Hattiesburg and Mobile, Alabama, but he's yet another top prospect to come out of George County High School's regionally famous baseball program. McDonald sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has an incredibly loose arm that could easily add some velocity as he gets stronger, and he also adds three inconsistent but present secondary pitches at this point. His slider is the most advanced at this point, but his aptitude for pitching should help him develop all three as well as his command. On the flip side, he's not the most projectable guy with a skinny 6'2" frame, and he has yet to prove his durability at this point. There's a lot of upside here and that's why the Giants signed McDonald away from a South Alabama commitment for $800,000, which counts for $675,000 against their bonus pool.
35-1046: SS Brooks Lee (San Luis Obispo HS [CA], my rank: 41)
As you would expect, Brooks Lee did not sign here, and he'll instead attend Cal Poly and play for his dad in the Mustangs baseball program. Lee's a very interesting prospect and a good spring pushed him into the fringes of the first round discussion and certainly into the competitive balance round discussion, but ultimately he was not signable. The San Luis Obispo native has excellent feel for the game, and it shows on both sides of the ball with his knack for finding the barrel and his consistency in the infield. On the flip side, his swing sucks, to be frank, as he often gets choppy with it and/or leaks out over his front foot, sapping his power. That makes it all the more impressive that he performed well against elite competition on the showcase circuit, and he smooths out his swing either at Cal Poly or in pro ball down the line, he could have a true plus hit tool. He's 6'1" and it remains to be seen how much power comes out of it, though you never know with mechanical changes. Defensively, he's competent enough to handle shortstop, but his athleticism is a little stretched there and he may end up at third base, where he would be a plus defender.
38-1136: RHP Will Rigney (Midway HS [TX], my rank: 94)
Like Lee, Will Rigney will attend his hometown college rather than signing with the Giants, in this case Baylor. Rigney wasn't quite as highly touted as Lee, instead projecting more as an early Day Two pick, but he has high upside as well. The Waco-area native sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows an inconsistent slider that can flash true plus, and at 6'5", he's plenty projectable enough to add more velocity. He also uses his big frame to get good angle on the ball, and his command is currently average. However, he fell because a forearm injury kept him out for most of the spring, and if not handled right (or even when handled right), those things can lead to Tommy John surgery. We'll have to see how his health holds up at Baylor, but if he does indeed come back healthy, he could get more consistent with that slider and add a changeup and emerge as a potential first round pick.
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: College Outfielders
There are two clear headliners in this year's college outfield class, though aside from Kameron Misner, there probably won't be any others picked until the middle of the second round or later. Aside from the lack of a middle tier of late first round/comp round/early second round guys, there is a lot to like here, and once you get towards the end of day one/start of day two, there are quite a few guys who could make a difference in a variety of ways.
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
Tier I: JJ Bleday, Hunter Bishop
The two top outfielders in the class arrived here with huge junior seasons in which they tremendously improved their stock. Vanderbilt's JJ Bleday was seen as more likely to go in the back half of the first round after he slashed .368/.494/.511 with four home runs and a 23/31 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore in 2018, with scouts pleased by his plate discipline but looking for more power. He provided it and more this year, slashing .346/.461/.748 with 25 home runs and a 45/45 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games, showing few if any holes in his offensive game with power, contact, and plate discipline in spades. He also slashed .311/.374/.500 on the Cape and has slashed .304/.438/.687 in SEC play, so there is little worry that he'll produce at the next level. With a strong arm but not much foot speed, he'll be a serviceable right fielder with most of his value tied to his bat, which projects to have middle of the order impact. He'll get drafted somewhere between the third and sixth picks. Across the country, Arizona State's Hunter Bishop has improved his stock more than perhaps any player this season, jumping from a day two pick to the top half of the first round. After slashing .250/.352/.407 as a sophomore for the Sun Devils, he busted out with 22 home runs, a .356/.482/.792 slash line, and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio through 51 games as a junior, showing some of the best raw power in the class along the way. Despite adding a ton of power, Bishop cut his strikeout rate by a quarter and bumped up his walk rate by more than 50%, which bodes well for his ability to continue to tap that power at the next level. His strikeout rate is still a little bit high (22.3%) and he has come down to Earth a bit in Pac-12 play (.273/.403/.555), so he's safely behind Bleday in my book, he's easily the better defender and could stay in center field. He likely cracks the top ten picks and there have been a lot of rumors about the Rangers taking him eighth overall, though I believe I may be the low guy on him.
Tier II: Kameron Misner
Don't take Misner's spot by himself here to mean anything about him specifically; there really are no other college outfielders who are close to his skill level, with Bleday and Bishop being much better and the Tier III guys being well behind him. Missouri's Kameron Misner could have pushed his way into Tier I with a good run through SEC play, but his overall .287/.443/.485 line with ten home runs and a 56/54 strikeout to walk ratio includes just a .222/.353/.315 line against advanced SEC pitching. That makes Misner a bit of a conundrum, as he missed most of SEC play as well as summer ball last season with a broken foot. He's a great athlete with power, speed, and a strong arm, and he hit well last year (.360/.497/.576) in his 34 games as a sophomore, mostly against non-SEC pitching. Misner's great outfield defense will buy his bat plenty of time, and his power and high walk rate are definitely there, but he's just unproven against higher level pitching and the holes in his swing might get exposed. He has the ceiling of a #5 hitter with a strong glove and arm, but he comes with more risk than is usual for players of his profile. He looks to be drafted in the back half of the first round.
Tier III: Matt Wallner, Kyle Stowers, Will Robertson, Zach Watson, Dominic Fletcher
While Misner is alone in that second tier, there are plenty of bats in the third tier and they're all a little different. Matt Wallner, a two-way player out of Southern Miss, has had an up and down season after slashing .351/.474/.618 with 16 home runs and a 53/48 strikeout to walk ratio last year. This year, he's slashing .315/.431/.665 with 19 home runs and a 43/40 strikeout to walk ratio through 53 games, the only real differences between this year and last year being less consistency, a bit more power, and a lower batting average on balls in play. He's 6'5" and his left handed swing is geared more for power than for contact, which has worked against C-USA pitching but gave him so-so results in the Cape Cod League (.250/.343/.417, 24/8 K/BB). He's far from a guarantee to hit at the next level, but he has shown enough game power and plate discipline to warrant a second round selection and he could pop 30 home runs annually in the majors. Some teams were also looking at him as a potential reliever, but arm issues have kept him from pitching this season and he has stated that he prefers to hit. That arm does play well in the outfield, giving him some defensive value in right field. Over at Stanford, Kyle Stowers has had an interesting run. In 2018, Stowers slashed .286/.383/.512 with ten home runs and a 49/30 strikeout to walk ratio, then he hit six home runs and slashed .326/.361/.565 on the Cape over the summer. This year seems like more of the same with seven home runs and a .293/.365/.506 line, but his 21/21 strikeout to walk ratio means means that he cut his strikeout rate in half. That's especially interesting given that the length in his swing has led to swing and miss concerns. It's hard to say what Stowers' ultimate projection is, because he looks like more of a fourth outfielder with his solid power but potentially low on-base percentages, but the production on the Cape and this year's reduced strikeout rate could mean that he'll get to his power more often than we might think. He looks like a third rounder, but he could sneak into the back of the second. Creighton's Will Robertson is also hard to project, with his eleven home runs, .301/.390/.554 slash line, and 37/19 strikeout to walk ratio making for another solid season in Omaha. He has left handed power and it played up on the Cape (4 HR, .300/.380/.435), making evaluators hopeful that his lack of tough competition in the Big East will be less of an issue. He could be a middle of the order hitter if everything plays up as hoped, though his aggressive approach against mediocre Big East pitching does give him some risk. He also doesn't have much defensive value as a decent left fielder, so the pressure will be on his bat. He looks like a third rounder. Zach Watson is a very well known name in the SEC, as he has started for LSU for three years now and has produced every season. This year has been more of the same, as he slashed .317/.367/.472 with five home runs and a 38/14 strikeout to walk ratio through his first 50 games. He was draft-eligible as a sophomore last year and could have been a second or third round pick after slashing a nearly identical .308/.366/.479, but he wanted to return to Baton Rouge and he's back in roughly the same spot this year. He has a line drive bat and hits the ball very hard for someone listed at just 165 pounds, but his aggressive approach limits his walks and his line drive swing limits his power. Offensively, he has the tools to work with to become a solid piece (though he'll also turn 22 a few weeks after the draft), but his real value is on defense, where he is a very good center fielder and can track down almost any ball hit in his direction. Because he hasn't made any progress over last year's numbers, he looks like a third round pick. Arkansas's Dominic Fletcher is a fairly similar player to Watson, slashing .320/.383/.551 with ten home runs and a 48/22 strikeout to walk ratio through 55 games this season. Fletcher, like Watson, makes plenty of contact against SEC pitching and has a long track record of starting for his team, though he's also listed at 5'9" and that limits his overall offensive outlook. He has a strong glove, though not quite to the same level as Watson's, and that buys his bat some slack, and he's also considered to have a strong feel for the game that will help him maximize his tools. Improving his plate discipline should be a good start, and he also looks like a third round pick.
Others: Bryant Packard, Matt Gorski, Gabe Holt, Jordan Brewer
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