2022 MLB Draft Review: Toronto Blue Jays

Full list of draftees

I have to imagine the Blue Jays are very happy with their draft class. They were often tied to South Carolina prep infielder Tucker Toman in the first round, but instead picked up arguably the best left handed pitcher in the class and still got Toman two picks later with a huge over slot bonus. This class features numerous hitters with a strong combination of plate discipline and batted ball data that could break out with tweaks to their approaches. Meanwhile, many of the pitchers in this class bring unique skill sets to the table, making this a draft with sneaky upside overall.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here. 

1-23: LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL]. My rank: #17.
Slot value: $3.08 million. Signing bonus: $3.60 million ($523,100 above slot value).
The Blue Jays started it off with one of the best pitchers in the entire class, and they got him here in the back third of the first round. Brandon Barriera is an electric lefty out of South Florida with huge upside, one you absolutely want on your side. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can get up to 98 with cross body angle and average life, but his best pitch is a plus slider with late, bat missing bite. Barriera also has good feel for his changeup and will work that into his repertoire more frequently as a pro, giving him a very loud three pitch mix. He stands a skinny 6'2" and does not throw with much effort, showing impressive athleticism on the mound with a quick left arm. He pounds the strike zone and loves to go right after hitters, pitching with a chip on his shoulder and giving scouts reason to laud his competitive demeanor on the mound. Together, it's a really fun profile that could move relatively quickly for a high school pitcher, which does admittedly set the bar low, and he could get an especially quick start to his pro career because he intentionally shut down his senior season at American Heritage High School early to prepare for the draft. Originally committed to Vanderbilt, it took a large over slot bonus to keep him away from campus.

2-60: SS Josh Kasevich, Oregon. My rank: #72.
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1 million ($216,700 below slot value).
Toronto may have saved some money in the second round, but they still managed to pick up a very interesting player in Josh Kasevich. Kasevich has been an extremely steady contributor for Oregon over the past two seasons, slashing a combined .317/.389/.445 with eleven home runs and a 40/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games. He's extremely disciplined in the box and makes a ton of contact, employing an all fields, line drive approach that led to a minuscule 5.8% strikeout rate in 2022. It's a plus pure hit tool that never produced a ton of extra impact beyond a barrage of singles in Eugene, with 34 extra base hits over the past two seasons in those 116 games. However, the San Francisco Bay Area native has some interesting traits under the surface, with quick hands and a lean, 6'2" frame that regularly produce high exit velocities and can help him run into some power when he turns on one. Scouts have wanted to see Kasevich try to turn on and lift more balls in 2022, which he did a bit at the outset of the season, but he reverted back to his typical contact-oriented ways as the season wore on. Given the plus bat to ball skills and feel for the barrel, the Blue Jays could try to get him back on that path of trying to do more damage at once without sacrificing much in the way of on-base percentage, even if it's not really his game for now. It will be interesting to see which direction he develops and what kind of player he becomes, but even now the offensive package is very good as a high average, high on-base guy. The bat looks even better considering his defense, as he brings very strong instincts and body control to the shortstop position despite lacking explosive speed. If he moves off shortstop eventually, he could be a plus defender at second or third base.

2C-77: SS Tucker Toman, Hammond HS [SC]. My rank: #42.
Slot value: $846,900. Signing bonus: $2 million ($1.15 million above slot value).
The Blue Jays were heavily linked to Tucker Toman at pick #23, but ultimately could not pass up a shot at one of the best arms in the class in Brandon Barriera. Toman was surprisingly still available when they picked again at #60, but they knew they had to go more than half a million dollars above slot value to wrangle Barriera so they saved some money with Josh Kasevich. Though they were still about $300,000 in the hole when their third pick rolled around at #77, the opportunity to snag one of their favorite prep bats here was too much to pass up and they wound up handing him top 40 money to keep him from an LSU commitment. Toman is coming off a big senior season in which he showed off his above average power very consistently in games, pushing himself up boards in the process. A switch hitter, he takes big, powerful hacks from both sides of the plate with strong barrel accuracy that enables him to lift the ball with authority, though his left handed swing is a bit smoother and more explosive than his right handed swing. The Columbia, South Carolina native has a good eye at the plate as well, though he can get a little pull happy at times, but overall takes good at bats. It's a strong all around offensive profile that could wind up with above average power and above average hit in time, translating to 20-25 home runs a year with strong on-base percentages at peak. Drafted as a shortstop, he's more strong than quick and will fit better in a corner, with third base the best case scenario but possibly first base or a corner outfield spot. That puts pressure on the bat, which shouldn't be a problem.

2C-78: 2B Cade Doughty, Louisiana State. My rank: #61.
Slot value: $833,600. Signing bonus: $833,600.
Cade Doughty is a really interesting pick here, one with some sneaky upside. He's been well known to area scouts for a long time, having earned serious draft interest as a Louisiana high schooler before matriculating to LSU. He continually raised his stock in Baton Rouge, and midway through the 2022 season he was looking like a first rounder. However, an extended slump from mid April to mid May dented his stock, and a crowded field of college bats in the back of the first round/second round range pushed him further down boards. The final result was a .298/.393/.567 slash line with 15 home runs and a 49/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, a line salvaged by a strong showing at the Hattiesburg Super Regional. Doughty is a very professional hitter that likes to swing the bat, but still makes a ton of hard contact with an all-fields approach. He's not a slugger, but there's at least average raw power in the tank and it plays to all fields, so when he's going right, he's an extremely valuable all-around hitter. The Baton Rouge-area product got away from his approach a bit in 2022 and may have swung for the fences a bit too much, so his contact rates dropped and his already aggressive approach began to play down. Pessimists see a guy with average power and average hit, but the Blue Jays likely believe in that above average hit, above average power guy that Doughty was for much of his time with LSU. Defensively, he's seen time at both second and third base (more second in 2022), showing well at both with solid if unspectacular arm strength and range. If he can get back to using the whole field and trusting his power to come naturally, he'll be a very productive hitter in Toronto for a long time.

3-98: OF Alan Roden, Creighton. My rank: #140.
Slot value: $623,500. Signing bonus: $497,500 ($126,000 below slot value).
Toronto saved a little more money here with one of the more interesting senior signs in the class. Alan Roden will go from the Bluejays of Creighton to the Blue Jays of Toronto, coming off a massive senior season in Omaha in which he slashed .387/.492/.598 with four home runs and an 8/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Yep, you read that right, that's an OBP near .500 with just eight strikeouts the entire season, good for the lowest strikeout rate (3.3%) of any player on my draft board. He's an old school hitter that sets up in a crouch, keeping his eyes on plane with the baseball and picking it up extremely well out of the pitcher's hand. If it's high, he'll get his hands up to hit and drive it, and if it's low, he'll drop down and go with it. He didn't hit for much power this year playing in pitcher-friendly Charles Schwab Field, home of the College World Series, instead employing a contact-oriented, line drive approach that regularly sent the ball deep into the gaps for 25 doubles and two triples this year. However, much like Josh Kasevich a round earlier, there is some sneaky power here because Roden regularly posts high exit velocities due to finding the barrel so frequently. As a senior sign that already turned 22 before the season started, I'm not sure how much loft you're going to add to the swing especially given his setup and approach, so Kasevich's power may be more attainable. The Madison, Wisconsin-area native also did not hit for much impact in the Cape Cod League this summer leading up to the draft (.212/.373/.288), though he did keep his strikeout rate down at a very strong 8.4% while walking 10.8% of the time against elite pitching. Drafted as an outfielder, he played a lot of first base at Creighton and won't provide much value on that side of the ball, likely landing in left field long term. Roden should move quickly through the minors with an extremely advanced bat and could be one of the first hitters to reach the majors from this class, with a likely platoon projection.

5-158: LHP Mason Fluharty, Liberty. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $347,000. Signing bonus: $222,500 ($124,500 below slot value).
You don't see many baseball players from Slower Lower Delaware, but when you do, they usually come out of Cape Henlopen High School in Lewes. Mason Fluharty teamed with future UVA stars Zack and Jake Gelof for the Vikings, and like the Gelof brothers, he came to the state of Virginia for college. In 2022 he was very strong out of the Liberty bullpen with a 2.84 ERA and an 83/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.2 innings. It's one of the more unorthodox profiles in the class, as his narrow arsenal really operates more on a spectrum rather than as individual pitches. Working with a closed off delivery from the extreme first base side of the rubber, he puts about as much angle on his pitches as you can possibly get while also hiding the ball really well especially from right handed hitters. From there, he cuts his "pitch" to give it even more glove side movement in addition to the angle already on it. That "pitch" fluctuates between cut fastball and slider traits depending on what he needs, getting into the low 90's when he wants to sacrifice movement for velocity and but showing a ton of sweep when it's thrown more as a traditional slider. There is an old cartoon about a pitcher from a hundred years ago that I believe was referencing Grover Cleveland Alexander, and it's killing me that I can't find it, in which a slider just keeps sweeping and sweeping until it literally chases the batter out of the batter's box back to the dugout. That's what Fluharty's slider is like with its combination of angle and sweep. The 6'2" lefty is a good strike thrower to boot, but given the two pitch (one malleable pitch?) profile, he's probably destined for the bullpen in pro ball. The Blue Jays may want to help him add a changeup or at least another variation of his fastball that can run to the arm side and keep hitters from sitting on his cutter and slider, and overall I'm curious to see how this works out against more advanced hitters.

7-218: 1B Peyton Williams, Iowa. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $210,500. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($13,000 below slot value).
Toronto picked up a big power bat in the seventh round. Peyton Williams has gotten better and better every year at Iowa, culminating in a huge junior season where he slashed .335/.464/.622 with 13 home runs and an even 35/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's a very big guy at a listed 6'5", 255 pounds, and he channels that strength into an extremely powerful left handed hack that can really blast the ball. Williams likes to use the whole field and doesn't loft the ball as often as perhaps he should, but that may be a relatively easy fix in pro ball as the Blue Jays tinker with his approach to get him to turn on it more. He also does not strike out much with a disciplined approach at the plate, giving him a very well rounded profile in the box that should move relatively quickly. The Des Moines-area native is very limited defensively as you can imagine by his size, with below average speed that will really only play at first base. If Williams can learn to turn on the ball more consistently without sacrificing contact, he could crack it as a power hitting first baseman in the mold of a left handed C.J. Cron at his ceiling.

9-278: RHP Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State. My rank: #171.
Slot value: $158,600. Signing bonus: $122,500 ($36,100 below slot value).
I'm very interested in this pick. Devereaux Harrison was very good over his first two years at Long Beach State, where he put up a 1.50 ERA and a 60/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 combined innings, but he took a big step back in 2022 with a 6.15 ERA and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio in 33.2 innings mostly out of the Dirtbag bullpen. A 20.8% strikeout rate out of the bullpen isn't exactly what you look for in a pro prospect especially when it's combined with a 6.15 ERA, a 1.57 WHIP, and an 11% walk rate, but there are some interesting traits underneath. Harrison sits in the low 90's with his fastball and gets up into the mid 90's, but when he's going right, the pitch plays up with huge ride up in the zone. He flashes an above average slider at his best, but it's very inconsistent in its shape and velocity and can often look below average. There's a changeup in there, but it's not one of his main weapons. Always a bit iffy on the command, the Northern California native really struggled in that regard in 2022 and too often would fall behind in the count and groove pitches that got crushed. The Blue Jays will look to work off that explosive fastball and get him much more consistent with his slider, but perhaps the biggest asset available to them will be his athleticism. The 6' righty gets down the mound extremely well with a flexible, explosive lower half, and personally I think that combined with the life on his pitches is reason enough to take a shot on him and see what you can do. It's almost certainly a bullpen profile going forward given his smaller frame, long arm action, and general inconsistency, but it could be a very good one if the Blue Jays do this right.

18-548: LHP Jérémy Pilon, Ecole Secondaire de Montagne HS [QC]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
There isn't much information out there about Jérémy Pilon, but I want to give him his due as a Canadian drafted by the Blue Jays. Pilon grew up in Salaberry-de-Valleyfield on Grand Ile, about thirty miles southwest of Montreal, and played at Ecole Secondaire de Montagne which it looks like is in the northeastern Montreal suburb of Bucherville. A member of Team Canada, he was the youngest player in the entire draft at just 16 years old, not even turning 17 until September. The 6' lefty sits around 90 with his high spin fastball and drops in a curveball with impressive depth as well as a changeup, leaning back in his delivery a bit like Tim Lincecum. Pilon completed high school not one but two years early, which is why he's getting drafted at such a young age, and to this point I actually don't believe he's committed to play anywhere in college yet. It looks like he'll continue working with Team Canada and with the Académie de Baseball du Canada, where he'll look to fill out a bit and get stronger before hopefully pushing himself into the top five rounds, whether that be again next year or in a few years after college ball.

20-608: OF Gregory Pace, Edison HS [MI]. My rank: #173.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: did not sign.
As with Jérémy Pilon, Gregory Pace did not sign here, but I do know a lot more about him. In fact, I'm very intrigued by Pace's upside. A product of Detroit Edison Public School Academy in inner-city Detroit, he's an exceptional athlete with huge upside if developed right. For now, he stands out for plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field and on the basepaths, but he's more than a speedster. He comes with an extremely projectable 6'3" frame with a ton of twitchy strength, and he was still just 17 years old on draft day to boot. As Pace fills out, he'll almost certainly start to tap more power from the right side, where he shows quick hands and a line drive approach. He hasn't performed well against high-octane stuff and his swing can get grooved, so the hit tool will need just as much refinement as the power will, and there is a lot of work to be done. In addition to his blazing speed, Pace has also touched 90 on the mound, so the defensive outlook already has a very high floor. I believe given his youth, frame, and cold weather background, he'll become the next great outfielder to come out of that University of Michigan program that has recently churned out Clark Elliott, Jordan Nwogu, Jordan Brewer, and Jesse Franklin. He may not make an impact right away as a freshman, but look out come 2024 and 2025.

2022 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at Pick #5 (April Update)

Before the start of the season, I pulled ten options for the Nationals at the fifth overall pick. While of course players' stocks have moved in all different directions since then, things have remained *fairly* unchanged in terms of who is in play at the top of the draft. I dove a little bit into their draft history in that original article, so instead we can skip straight into who could conceivably be under consideration two months later. Considering Mike Rizzo's recent statement that he wants to shake up player development in this system, it's hard to say exactly which direction they will go.

I'm going to start by making a note on the three players that I see locking themselves in as the top three prospects. Georgia prep bats Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson as well as Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, in my opinion, are in a class of their own and have some daylight before the next group. That doesn't mean that they'll go first, second, and third overall, but there's a good chance all three are off the board in the first four picks and it's hard to say which could end up slipping through the cracks. If I had to guess, it would probably be Johnson, so I'll highlight him but leave off Jones and Lee (but if any of the three are available, I'd highly advise Washington to draft him). As a quick summary, Jones is the son of Hall of Fame candidate Andruw Jones, bringing a ridiculous combination of athleticism and polish to the field you just don't often see. A plus-plus runner, he has plenty room to add weight to his frame and already shows plus power to go with strong plate coverage and plays a mean center field. Meanwhile, Lee also shows elite bat to ball skills and this year is showing much more restraint on pitches outside the zone, patching up the biggest question mark scouts had about his game. He also shows plus power and is slashing .401/.503/.693 as of this writing.

Below are ten players the Nationals are likely considering, with their rank on my most recent top 75 in parentheses as well as, for college players, their stats through April 17th.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#3)
I don't think Termarr Johnson will be available here. One of Baltimore, Arizona, Texas, or Pittsburgh seems likely to fall in love with him, especially if Druw Jones and Brooks Lee are off the board at that point. But if he does reach #5, Washington should be all over him. Johnson is one of the best pure hitters to come through the high school ranks in years, with some calling him the best they've ever seen. He handles the strike zone like a seasoned MLB veteran, spitting on breaking balls and other pitches he doesn't like while consistently barreling up everything thrown in his ample hitting zone. Despite standing just 5'9", his combination of a keen eye and elite bat to ball skills allows him to take big, healthy hacks from the left side, producing plus power. That kind of bat certainly has the Orioles considering him with the first overall pick. The only questions in his profile are size and athleticism, as the other two top hitters in the high school class, Jones (6'4", 180) and Elijah Green (6'3", 225), are freak of nature-type athletes and Jackson Holliday (6'1", 180) has blossomed physically as well. Johnson (5'9", 190) projects more as a steady second baseman who can make all the routine plays, but won't be winning and Gold Gloves. Still, we have plenty of recent history with defensively-limited hitters going in the top couple of picks, highlighted by 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, so I don't think that should be an issue. Believe it or not, he remains uncommitted which conventionally lead you to believe he won't be as expensive as someone like Jones, Green, or Dylan Lesko, but he's so talented that there is bound to be a bidding war for his services and he won't come cheap.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#4)
2022: 8 HR, .352/.439/.680, 4 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 30 games.
Cross entered the season as the #6 player on my board and now has hit well enough to push himself to #4, putting him right in range for the Nationals at #5. He's a hard-hit machine that sprays deep fly balls, screaming line drives, and hot shot ground balls all around the field. Even when he swings over pitches, he still pounds them into the ground with such force that they turn into high choppers that take a while to come down. This is a power bat through and through. The Bristol, Tennessee native has always tracked pitches well out of the hand, but an aggressive approach led to a somewhat unsightly 48/17 strikeout to walk ratio last year (a 20.5% strikeout rate). This year, he has done a much better job laying off those pitches just out of the zone and focusing on maximizing damage on pitches in the zone, matching last year's walk total already while cutting his strikeout rate in half to just 9.5%. Now that he has patched up that last hole in his profile, he's a much more complete hitter and the Nationals will likely strongly consider him with the fifth overall pick, perhaps ahead of every other college bat (of which there are plenty) except Lee. His defensive profile has raised this year as well, seamlessly moving from right field to center field and showing the ability to potentially stick there. If his larger 6'3", 210 pound frame does ultimately force him back to right, he's shown enough this year to convince evaluators he'll still be above average at that position.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech (#5)
2022: 18 HR, .380/.471/.778, 5 SB, 19/21 K/BB in 37 games.
Kevin Parada just missed this list before the season, but he's improved is stock significantly this spring despite already being considered a consensus first round bat. Always known as a well-rounded hitter with a professional approach and above average power, he's taken a step forward on both sides of that equation this spring. He cut his strikeout rate from a solid 16.9% a year ago to a very strong 10.2% this year, while also improving his walk rate from 7.0% to 11.2%. Tacking on some strength helped his previously above average power play up to easy plus this spring, perhaps double plus depending on who you ask, and it's playing to all fields consistently, not just the pull side. His defensive ability remains a bit of a question mark, with so-so athleticism and arm strength, but he's known by area scouts to possess a very strong work ethic and many are confident he will put in the work to stick behind the plate. He's pushed to the front of an extremely strong college catching class even if he's not a surefire lock to stay at the position, mostly because he's arguably the best hitter in all of college baseball. To boot, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore and younger than the other college names on this list, not turning 21 until after the draft. If the Nationals believe he will eventually improve to an average defender, there's no denying the bat and he could very easily be the pick at fifth overall.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#6)
In the past, I think Mike Rizzo would have been all over an arm like Dylan Lesko, and even with the evolving development philosophy in the system, Rizzo will still likely strongly consider the Atlanta-area righty. In a class extremely short on college pitching, the high schooler has established himself as the consensus top pitching prospect at either level and will probably be the only arm in play at pick #5 unless a prep lefty like Noah Schultz, Jackson Ferris, or Brandon Barriera is willing to take a big discount. Many evaluators consider Lesko to be the best prep pitching prospect in years, an honor he has really driven home this spring. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch the upper 90's with ease, while his changeup is arguably the best in the class with ludicrous life. Some scouts have nitpicked his ability to spin a breaking ball, but he has always shown high spin rates on his curve and slider (indicating attainable room for improvement) and this spring they have been more consistent. They're above average pitches most of the time and are trending towards plus. He's a great athlete that repeats his delivery well, fills up the strike zone with all four pitches, and has some projection left to boot. There is tremendous risk associated with high school righthanders and he recently came down with a little bit of soreness in his arm, so the Nationals' scouting department will be following that development very closely. But if they deem him healthy, it's really hard to look away from an eighteen year old that checks every single box. He's committed to Vanderbilt and would be a very expensive sign, even this high in the draft.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2022: 10 HR, .379/.527/.714, 4 SB, 24/42 K/BB in 39 games.
If the Nationals decide that all they care about in this spot is the bat, then Jace Jung might be high on their list. After hitting .337/.462/.697 as a sophomore, he's somehow improved in all three measures of the triple slash while dropping his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 12.8% and increasing his walk rate from 18.6% to 22.3%. He's gotten very little to hit all spring, but continues to show an extremely disciplined approach at the plate and when he has gotten his pitch, he hasn't missed it. In addition to his patience, he continues to show plus power to all fields and looks like arguably the safest bet to become and impact hitter in the college class (again, perhaps except for Lee). He plays second base for Texas Tech right now and would be a decent, Daniel Murphy-like defender there, or he could switch over to third base and be good enough there as well. Either way he won't be winning any Gold Gloves, but it's nice to have at least a little versatility from a top tier bat that can stick on the dirt.

C Daniel Susac, Arizona (#8)
2022: 7 HR, .385/.436/.627, 0 SB, 28/11 K/BB in 36 games.
Daniel Susac has followed a very similar path to Kevin Parada. While Parada was clearly the better prospect at the time, both drew significant draft interest out of their respective California private schools in 2020 (Loyola for Parada, Jesuit for Susac) and instead headed to school. Now after pushing their names into the first round conversation as freshmen, both have improved their stock further this spring and make the Nationals' short list after just missing it at the beginning of the spring. While Parada is relatively old for a sophomore with his August birthday and therefore draft-eligible, Susac is the age of a college junior with a May birthday and doesn't quite get the extreme age advantage of Parada, but he's still relatively young for a college-eligible player. He shows plus power and excellent batted ball metrics from his long limbed, 6'4" frame and has been an extra base hit machine in Tucson, tallying 60 in 97 career games so far. While he's a very free swinger, he makes a ton of contact and has still managed to drop his strikeout rate from 17.7% last year to 15.6% this year, a very reasonable number. The Sacramento-area product has also improved considerably behind the plate as a strong framer with a strong arm. It's really hard to find catchers with that combination of power, bat to ball ability, and defense, so really the only question mark in his profile is that free swinging approach. If he was striking out over 20% of the time, it might be more worrisome, but given the consistent hard contact he has made against strong competition in the Pac-12, the fact that he rarely walks is more of an afterthought in the profile. I would prefer Parada in this spot but Susac has made a very good case for himself.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
Long a headliner for this prep class, Elijah Green has been talked about as high as first overall in the past and more recently has endured rumors he could fall out of the top ten. Despite possessing the loudest physical tools in the entire class, the inconsistency of his hit tool is currently leaving evaluators with very split opinions. He showed well on the showcase circuit, but came out this spring in a bit of a funk and swung and missed at an alarming rate if we're going by the context of the top ten picks, then more recently, has righted the ship and looks as locked in as ever. So that leaves evaluators to decide – is Green a streaky hitter who will always deal with slumps, or has he turned a corner and is that slow start just a blip on an otherwise stellar track record? If the Nationals believe the latter, then they should be all over the Orlando native at pick #5. As most are well aware of by now, he possesses massive raw power unparalleled anywhere in the high school class, power he has gotten to against good pitching in the past. Not just a slugger, he can absolutely fly on the bases with plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field as well. And oh yeah, he has a cannon right arm to boot. If you want to imagine his ceiling, think of Aaron Judge with Victor Robles speed. That's really, really hard to pass up if you believe in his hit tool. He's committed to Miami and I imagine he will be quite expensive to sign.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK] (#11)
I'll reserve the last three spots on this list for potential money savers, mostly so it doesn't read like a plain old top ten list. Jackson Holliday, the son of former All Star Matt Holliday, has been flying up boards faster than anybody this spring. A few months ago, he was seen as more of a second round type. Over the summer, Holliday showed an advanced approach at the plate, spraying deep line drives around the park by choosing good pitches and connecting with a clean, leveraged swing. It was a very nice profile, but scouts wanted to see him fill out his frame a little bit more (I've seen him listed as short as 5'11" and as tall as 6'1" in different sources) before projecting him as a true impact player. Well, he came out this spring looking much more physical and the results have been phenomenal, just raking against Oklahoma high school pitching and hitting some impressive home runs along the way. On top of that, he's a strong defender with a plus arm with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further increasing chances he could continue to move up. Right now, pick #5 seems just a little bit rich, but he's trending up and by July could be more in play here, especially if the Nationals want a shortstop. He probably won't require full slot value here despite a commitment to play for both his uncle and father at Oklahoma State, so he could help the Nationals go above slot later in the draft.

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL] (#13)
There are three lefties jockeying for position behind top prep pitching prospect Dylan Lesko, and they are Brandon Barriera, Jackson Ferris, and Noah Schultz. None will likely be in play at the fifth overall pick on talent alone, but if the Nationals want a pitcher and Lesko is off the board (or they don't want to splurge on his high price tag), they could reach down the board a little bit for one of these three and save some money in the process. I chose to highlight Barriera, a bulldog competitor down in South Florida who recently made it known he would be wrapping up his high school season early to focus on the draft. A bit undersized at a skinny 6'1", he possesses some of the loudest stuff in the class in a low to mid 90's fastball, a wicked slider, and a relatively advanced changeup. Coming from an uptempo delivery, he pounds the strike zone relentlessly and while his control is ahead of his command, he projects to stay in the rotation long term. He really stands out for his competitive demeanor on the mound, always looking to prove doubters wrong. A Vanderbilt commitment means he won't come cheap, but at pick #5 he should still help the Nationals save a little money and Vanderbilt commits have been used in that regard in the past (see Ian Anderson, third overall in 2016).

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#16)
2022: 7 HR, .333/.429/.525, 5 SB, 30/24 K/BB in 48 games.
Cam Collier probably isn't a top ten prospect at this point, so it will take a strong finish to his JUCO season to vault into consideration at pick #5, and he'll also likely need to take a discount. He could be that guy, though, as one of the best pure hitters in this class especially when you take his age into account. Collier should be a high school junior, but not only did he reclassify, he went the Bryce Harper route and skipped both his junior and senior seasons at Mount Paran Christian HS in the Atlanta area in order to enroll early at Chipola JC in Florida. Despite being just 17 years old while playing against mostly 18, 19, and 20 year olds, he got off to a red hot start when his season began in January and was one of the spring's first risers. He's been a little up and down since then but the overall numbers remain great and he's hitting .556 over his last seven games, so if Collier can show that he's turned a corner and is now truly settling in, he'll be in a great spot come July. He doesn't stand out for one individual tool, instead showing feel for the. game advanced beyond his years and the ability to do a little bit of everything. His professional approach at the plate is the reason he's taken so well to older pitching, and there is some natural power here to all fields that he taps without selling out. Though he's not the springiest athlete in the world, his strong arm should help him stick at third base and provide some defensive value. This is the kind of bat that could reach the majors at twenty years old if everything breaks right. He's committed to Louisville and if he heads there, will be draft eligible again as a twenty year old junior in 2025, so he has a lot of leverage. This early in the draft, though, I'd still expect him to take a sizable discount even if he finishes strong enough to warrant the selection.

Other Options
OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#10)
3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State (#12)
LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL] (#14)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL] (#15)
OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee (#22)

Some second round options
It's very hard to predict who a team will take in the first round, especially in April, and therefore it's near impossible to guess who they'll take in the second round. So instead, I'll take a look at a few names I'd like to see the Nationals consider with the 45th overall pick.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State (#24)
2022: 5-2, 2.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/12 K/BB in 55.1 innings.
I am very bullish on Parker Messick, and while his #24 ranking on my board may indicate he would be unlikely to reach the Nationals, he's ranked #48 by MLB Pipeline, #55 by Baseball America, and #71 by Prospects Live, so the industry definitely views him more as a second rounder. The reason I am bullish is simple, and that's because Messick can really, really pitch. He's an old school guy without big stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a curveball, slider, and changeup. Both breaking balls flash above average while the changeup flashes plus, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. However, the key to his success his pitchability, pounding the strike zone with confidence and swagger while effectively mixing pitches and changing speeds. Furthermore, everything plays up because he hides the ball extremely well, making him extremely difficult to pick up. Despite averaging a ranking of #58 between the three outlets I mentioned, I think he'll be gone within the top fifty picks due to the lack of college pitching in this class and I would love if the Nationals were the team to take him.

RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Brebeuf Jesuit HS [IN] (#26)
Andrew Dutkanych is an interesting pitcher that I think will thrive in the right development system. I'm not sure if that's Washington, but I'd rather have him on my side than not. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97, and while it doesn't quite have elite movement metrics, there's plenty of velocity there to make up for it. His best pitch is a short, tight slider that gives hitters fits, while his curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball and slider. Everything plays up because he's an aggressive pitcher that pounds the strike zone and refuses to be beat, and I think that kind of presence will serve him well in pro ball. The Indianapolis native also shows good command for a high schooler and is athletic on the mound, portending to a future in the starting rotation. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign in the second round.

SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX] (#28)
This is another fun one, as Jett Williams would probably be a surefire first rounder if it weren't for his short stature at 5'7". However, anybody looking at the size and comparing him to Nick Madrigal would be mistaken, because his game is much more explosive, more similar to Dustin Pedroia. Williams takes big hacks from the right side to produce above average power, but he keeps it under control and doesn't let it affect his hit tool. He finds the barrel consistently and has done so against good pitching, giving me confidence he'll be an impact hitter down the road. The Dallas-area native also plays a good shortstop and could stick there in the long run, with a strong arm and good athleticism to handle the position. He's also gotten looks in center field and has impressed there with plus speed and the aforementioned arm strength, adding some versatility to the profile. I honestly doubt he'll be available at pick #45 and if he is, it will be expensive to buy him out of a Mississippi State commitment, but the glut of high school shortstops with similar skillsets in the first round/comp round range (Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, Cole Young) could push him down.

LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State (#33)
2022: 6-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 66/13 K/BB in 51 innings.
It's not just Parker Messick creating headlines in Tallahassee. While not quite Rocker-Leiter, Bryce Hubbart makes Messick-Hubbart the most fearsome one-two punch in college baseball right now as they've combined for a 2.88 ERA and 160 strikeouts to 25 walks in 106.1 innings. Hubbart, like Messick, doesn't quite light up the radar guns with his low 90's fastball, but it's an invisiball with tremendous riding action that hitters just can't seem to pick up (and he's hit 96 in the past as well). He adds a pair of breaking balls in a curveball and a sweepier slider that have both been inconsistent (the slider more so than the curveball), but they flash plus at their best and he also has a solid changeup at his disposal. Despite an uptempo delivery, the skinny 6'1" lefty has improved his control and is filling up the strike zone more often in 2022, dropping his walk rate from 9.5% a year ago to 6.0% this spring. Hubbart is also a student of the game who understands and has worked to incorporate new developments in pitching development. If the Nationals can help him reach his peak velocity more often and get more consistent with his breaking stuff, I think they could have a legit impact starter here.

OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS [NV] (#37)
Carl Crawford's son is one of the toolsiest players in this year's class, a notch below Elijah Green but still extremely impressive. Justin has had some first round buzz this spring and may not be available at pick #45, but he would be a great get if he is still on the board. As you'd expect from someone whose father stole 480 bases in a fifteen year big league career, the younger Crawford is a plus-plus runner who can change games with his speed. With a rangy 6'3" frame, he also has the chance to grow into plus power and he's been showing it off more often this spring. My main concern is with his hit tool, especially around offspeed pitches which he struggled with over the summer, but he's been better in that regard this spring and has shown enough to warrant a role of the dice early in the draft. There is a ton of upside here and I think it would be worth buying him out of his Louisiana State commitment, though it will be expensive.