2020 Draft Review: Minnesota Twins

1-27: 1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina
2-59: OF Alerick Soularie, Tennessee
4-128: RHP Marco Raya, United South HS (TX)
5-158: OF Kala'i Rosario, Waiakea HS (HI)

Though they lost their third round pick after signing Josh Donaldson, the Twins were able to reel in a power-filled class this year, led in that regard by first rounder Aaron Sabato and fifth rounder Kala'i Rosario. Even second rounder Alerick Soularie, likely the money saver in this class, brings 20 home run potential, and the three of them could make their presence felt on the Twins' batting orders of the future down the road. Marco Raya is the lone arm in this group, an undersized right hander with an exciting four pitch mix. Aside from power, an interesting theme in this class is youth; all four picks have birthdays between June and August, making them young for their respective classes (Sabato and Soularie set to turn 21, Raya and Rosario set to turn 18).
Full index of team reviews here.

1-27: 1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina (my rank: 31)
Aaron Sabato would fit right into the Twins' current lineup, at least in terms of his profile. Originally from the New York City suburbs, he's absolutely raked in his short career at UNC, slashing .332/.459/.698 with 25 home runs and a 72/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games. He was pitched much more carefully at the start of the 2020 season and that threw him off a little bit, but he made adjustments and drew fourteen walks to just four strikeouts while homering six times in his last seven games of the season. With Sabato, we're talking plus power from brute strength. He's built like a tank at 6'2" and 230 pounds, muscling baseballs into the stratosphere with a pretty simple hack. Scouts aren't as sold on the hit tool, as he had a fair amount of swing and miss in his game at UNC and had to sit out summer ball, though his baseball IQ has been noted and he likely gets to at least average in that regard. He's going to have to hit, because he's a mediocre defender even at first base and likely ends up at DH in the long run. Still, you're buying tremendous raw power from the right side here, the type that could produce 40 home runs annually in the majors as somewhat of a Pete Alonso comp. Slot value is $2.57 million, and as a draft-eligible sophomore, I wouldn't expect him to take much of a discount if any at all. Pre-draft profile here.

2-59: OF Alerick Soularie, Tennessee (my rank: 135)
Soularie, from the Houston area, started his career at San Jacinto Community College and transferred to Tennessee for his sophomore year, where he was an instant success and hit .357/.466/.602 with eleven home runs and a 39/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games in 2019. The last calendar year has been a bit more up and down for him, as he wasn't particularly impressive in a short Cape Cod League stint over the summer (.207/.303/.345) and was inconsistent during the shortened 2020 season (.267/.392/.533, 5 HR). He's a solid average hitter across the board, showing a line drive bat with some present power and some more projected despite a smaller 6' frame, though he can be inconsistent at times with his swing mechanics. With a July birthday, he's pretty young for a college junior, which gives some hope he can iron out those mechanics with pro coaching. Soularie is an alright defender who can be a solid left fielder, but there's nothing flashy about his game out there and ultimately the bat will have to play. He could project for upwards of 20 home runs annually and solid on-base percentages at peak, though more likely finds himself in more of a platoon situation. This was likely a bit of a money saving pick for their Twins, who could take some of the $1.19 million for this slot and commit it to:

4-128: RHP Marco Raya, United South HS, TX (unranked)
The border town of Laredo, Texas isn't known for producing a ton of baseball talent, making Marco Raya the best prospect to come out of there in a long time. Firmly committed to Texas Tech, many were surprised when the Twins pulled the trigger on him in the fourth round, but it looks like they'll have the money to sign him. Good news for Raya, Target Field is just down the street – all he needs to do is hop on I-35 at its southern terminus in Laredo and hang a right about twenty hours and two thousand miles later, easy peasy. Anyways, Raya is a smaller righty at a listed 6' even, showing a low 90's fastball in addition to some really nice breaking stuff. His power curveball shows some real sharp snap, while his slider is more lateral and is a little behind the curve. He shows great feel for both, and that in addition to a loose arm and youth (doesn't turn 18 until August) make him a really fun pick to project on. There's a changeup as well, which needs work but also flashes solid fade. As a smaller guy, he's going to face relief questions, and while his delivery isn't necessarily high effort, it's also not particularly low effort either. In a way, he's a pretty similar arm to Cardinals competitive balance pick Markevian Hence (and they were born just a day apart), as both are undersized right handers with loose arms and great feel to spin the breaking ball, though Hence is a little more refined. Slot value is $442,900, though he'll likely require significantly more to sign away from Texas Tech.

5-158: OF Kala'i Rosario, Waiakea HS, HI (my rank: 90)
With their final pick, the Twins grabbed the Hawaiian Blaze Jordan. A product of Waiakea High School on the Big Island, Rosario is brings tremendous raw power from the right side of the plate, driving the ball with authority out to the deepest parts of the park. He brings that power from a sturdy 6'1" frame and healthy, powerful right handed hacks, and he has shown a solid hit tool at times. However, his mechanics will need some work, as his swing lacks much loft and he has a tendency to leak out over his front foot. Keeping him back on that back leg could help him produce even bigger raw power, and given that he's young for the class, the hope is that his approach can continue to improve and he can tap that power regularly in games. Rosario is an average defender who will end up at a corner outfield spot. That puts pressure on his bat, though scouts are confident he'll continue to get to his power and he brings huge upside to the plate. Committed to California Baptist, he might also require more than the $330,100 slot value to sign (probably not helped by the weather change between Hawaii and Minnesota – only joking, but...). Pre-draft profile here.

Undrafted: RHP John Stankiewicz, Fordham (unranked)
John Stankiewicz, a New Jersey native pitching for Fordham, is the lone undrafted free agent the Twins have signed so far. He has been absolutely dominant over the past two seasons, posting a 1.51 ERA and a 123/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings for the Rams. It's mostly a back-end starter profile here, as Stankiewicz deals in the upper 80's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches. His best offspeed is his curveball, a 12-6 breaker with tremendous depth that produces some flat out silly swings and misses, while the other two are average pitches. He's an above average strike thrower and with a durable 6'4" frame, he should be able to handle a starter's workload. There probably isn't a whole lot more velocity left in the tank, limiting his ceiling to a #4/#5 starter, but he could sit more consistently above 90 in a long relief role, where he could pitch off that curveball.

2020 Draft Profile: Aaron Sabato

1B Aaron Sabato, North Carolina
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 6/4/1999.  B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 7 HR, .292/.478/.708, 0 SB, 16/22 K/BB in 19 games

Sabato wasn't a big prospect coming out of the Brunswick School in Greenwich, Connecticut, but got to work changing that the second he stepped foot in Chapel Hill. Earning a full time starting role right out of the gate, Sabato slashed .343/.453/.696 with 18 home runs in 64 games for the Tar Heels, earning the ACC Freshman of the Year Award in 2019. Pitchers were less keen on throwing to him in his draft-eligible sophomore year, and he started slowly by hitting just .188/.333/.375 with one home run and eleven strikeouts in his first nine games. However, he changed his approach and hit six home runs and drew twelve walks over his last six games to rebuild his draft stock.

Sabato is getting drafted 100% for his bat. He has tortured ACC pitching since the day he first donned the Carolina Blue, using tremendous brute strength and feel for the barrel to muscle baseball after baseball into the seats (25 in 83 games total). He gets to that power very consistently with a simple, powerful swing, and he has shown the ability to make adjustments. With a June birthday, he was old for a sophomore and therefore draft eligible, but that in turn makes him relatively young for the college draft class with a ton of production under his belt.

The pressure is squarely on Sabato's bat to perform. Some first basemen, like potential first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, are athletic enough around the bag to provide more defensive value than they get credit for. That's not the case with Sabato, who can perform the bare minimum tasks like picking low throws and fielding grounders, but who struggles to do much else out there. You can live with that at first base, but it's not ideal. He struck out at a 20% clip as a freshman and 28% over his first nine games in 2020, but he learned to force pitchers to come to him and struck out just 10% of the time while walking 32% of the time over his final ten games. The hit tool is certainly not as robust as a guy like Torkelson's, but he has shown enough to be confident he'll be an impact hitter at the next level. He didn't play in any top leagues over the summer to further solidify that, but that's nitpicking.

Right now, the upside for Sabato is that of a 30-40 home run hitter with solid, walk-driven on-base percentages, a true middle of the order threat. There are some small concerns about how often he'll be able to tap that power given his strikeout numbers and right/right profile, but he showed in 2020 that he could make adjustments and I doubt he'll have any trouble hitting at the next level. Even when they come with small concerns, proven college bats tend to do well on draft day – just ask Michael Toglia or Seth Beer. If you can hit, they'll find a place for you. Conventionally, you'd expect a guy like Sabato to go somewhere in the comp round, but he has a chance to crack the back of the first round due to his track record in a class where a lot of guys were not seen much.

2020 game footage, including a double off likely first rounder Max Meyer