First 5 rounds: Alex Faedo (1-18), Reynaldo Rivera (2-57), Joey Morgan (3-95), Gio Arriera (4-125), Sam McMillan (5-155)
Also notable: Dane Myers (6-185), Garett King (11-335), Colby Bortles (22-665), Nick Storz (31-935), Ro Coleman (34-1025)
The Tigers are one of the easiest teams to predict in the first round, because they love right handed pitchers. 2017 marks the third straight year and fifth time in the last six years that they took a right handed pitcher with their first pick. After a great first pick, they didn't have the most exciting draft, going underslot with a few players but grabbing a few interesting names down the draft.
1-18: RHP Alex Faedo (my rank: 11)
This year's RHP is Alex Faedo, and this was a great pick. Coming into the season, Faedo was in the running to go first overall, but an inconsistent spring damaged his stock just slightly. Faedo stands 6'5" with a classic starter's build, and when he's going right, he attacks you with a low to mid 90's fastball and one of the best sliders in the entire class. However, he had minor surgery on both knees during the fall, and he never fully got his velocity back consistently this spring. His fastball sat more in the low 90's, though it did improve a bit as the season went on, and his command was a little more inconsistent than scouts wanted to see. However, he still went 7-2 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP (so far), striking out 135 batters in 109.1 innings in college baseball's toughest conference. He has #2 starter upside, with the pretty high floor of a #5 starter. He won't come cheap, but they did save a combined $629,300 on their other underslot picks, so they have some of money to go overslot for Faedo if they need to, as well as for other unsigned players such as fifth rounder Sam McMillan.
2-57: OF Reynaldo Rivera (my rank: 142)
The Tigers went underslot with their second pick, saving $298,400 on Rivera. There were probably some better underslot options on the board when they took Rivera with the 57th overall pick, but there was very little public video available for Rivera before the draft and I am not as confident in my evaluation of him as I am with other players, so the Tigers probably saw something in the 6'6" slugger. After slashing .397/.479/.647 with 10 home runs as a freshman last year for Chipola Junior College, he started off 2017 fairly slowly, slashing .246/.380/.474 with three home runs through the first two months of the season. Then, starting in March, he absolutely caught fire, slashing .518/.604/1.030 with 17 home runs over his final 40 games. There is still some swing and miss in his game, as he struck out in 18.2% of his plate appearances on the junior college circuit, but the power and overall hitting ability is unmistakable here. He's a high-risk, high reward slugger who won't provide much value on defense.
3-95: C Joey Morgan (my rank: 109)
If Rivera is the upside pick, Morgan is the safety pick. Washington's catcher signed an at-slot deal so Detroit didn't save any money, but they got a solid back-up catcher for the future. Morgan is good enough defensively to stick behind the plate, and he had a breakout year for the Huskies by slashing .324/.427/.500 with five home runs in the Pac-12. He has a clean swing that should translate up, and his 13.4% walk rate shows that he's willing to take a pitch or two. He's young for a college junior, as he won't turn 21 until August, and while he'll likely never be an impact player in the majors, he could be the Tigers' next Alex Avila.
5-155: C Sam McMillan (my rank: 131)
McMillan hasn't signed yet, but he will likely command an overslot bonus in the fifth round. Committed to the Florida Gators, he's the top high school player in the Florida Panhandle this year, showcasing solid all-around abilities but no plus tools. Like Morgan, he's a solid defensive catcher, but as a high schooler, he carries considerably more risk. That's okay, because he makes up for it by having the upside of a starting catcher due to the power he generates in his right handed swing, with the ability to turn into a Welington Castillo-type guy.
Others: 4th rounder Gio Arriera signed for $95,700 under slot, saving the Tigers a bit of money, but he has some upside as a 6'2" right handed pitcher with a sinker/curveball combination. Both could be plus pitches, and they help him miss plenty of bats, but he'll have to improve his command if he wants to cut it as a starter. 6th rounder Dane Myers slashed .358/.425/.545 with eight home runs as Rice's third baseman this year, but the Tigers didn't draft him for his bat. On the mound, Myers went 1-5 with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, striking out 37 batters in 54.1 innings. When he starts focusing on pitching full time, scouts think the 6'2" righty could push his fastball into the mid 90's and pair it with a potentially plus curveball. In that sense, he's pretty similar to Arriera. 11th rounder Garett King was arguably the biggest name in Division II this year, going 7-1 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP for Cal Baptist this year, striking out 85 batters, walking just 17 over 77.1 innings, and throwing a 15 strikeout no-hitter against Academy of Art University in March. He has extremely high upside for an 11th round pick, showcasing a four pitch mix from a projectable 6'4" frame, but he'll have to improve his platoon splits to continue to be a starter. 22nd rounder Colby Bortles, the younger brother of Jaguars QB Blake Bortles, wrapped up a solid four year career at Ole Miss by slashing .269/.376/.482 with 10 home runs as a senior, and with a strong, 6'5" build, there could be more power to come. 31st rounder Nick Storz was actually an early candidate to go in the first round, ranking as Baseball America's #10 high schooler overall back in November. However, a rough spring damaged his stock to the point where it's now almost a certainty that he will honor his commitment to LSU, where he has the potential to develop into the next Tiger ace. The 6'5" righty, when he's at his best, can run his sinking fastball into the mid 90's with a full arsenal, but nothing looked as sharp this spring and he missed time with a dead arm. 34th rounder Ro Coleman is a very recognizable name for college baseball fans, as he appeared in 224 games and two College World Series for Vanderbilt over the past four seasons. Coleman may be just 5'5" and weigh in at 140 lbs, but he made himself into a fan favorite due to his aggressive style of play. He finished his long career with an unspectacular .265/.360/.332 slash line and just three home runs, but he showcased an ability to get on base and, especially late in his career, very good bat to ball skills (6.7% strikeout rate this year). He played high school ball at the Simeon Academy in Chicago with Brewers 2016 first rounder Corey Ray, the same school that produced basketball stars Derrick Rose and Jabari Parker.
Showing posts with label Joey Morgan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joey Morgan. Show all posts
Thursday, June 22, 2017
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers
First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
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