Showing posts with label Ike Irish. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ike Irish. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 27, 2025

2025 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

With two compensation picks after losing Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, a CBA pick from the Bryan Baker trade, and a CBB pick won in the competitive balance lottery, the Orioles had six of the first 69 picks, four beyond what the draft would normally give a team. Because of that, despite picking nineteenth in the draft, they had the largest bonus pool of any team by a whopping $2 million margin. With all those resources, they put together a fantastic class headlined by four bats at the top and seven bats in their first nine picks. I really like the talent they pulled in, with a few picks that I thought no way would they have a chance to draft. One interesting trend was small schools, including schools like Ashland University (OH), University of the Cumberlands (KY), Mineral Area JC (MO), Johnson County JC (KS), and many others. They also pulled in some fantastic names like Ike Irish, Wehiwa Aloy, Slater de Brun, Jaiden Lo Re, and KK Clark.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. For example, "2-50" would indicate that a player was taken in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-19: C Ike Irish, Auburn
Slot value: $4.42 million. Signing bonus: $4.42 million ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #7. MLB Pipeline: #11. Baseball America: #13.
Letting Ike Irish get to the Orioles at pick #19 was a mistake, especially given his slot value signing bonus. There might not be a better pure bat in the class. Irish was a member of the vaunted Orchard Lake St. Mary's Prep team in Michigan that included Alex Mooney (Guardians), Nolan Schubart (Guardians), and Brock Porter (Rangers), where he earned interest in the top couple of rounds but stood firm in his commitment to Auburn. He hit the ground running on The Plains, and after three seasons and 160 games he can look back on 39 home runs and a .350/.435/.625 slash line for the Tigers. Irish sets up from a wide base and gets his barrel long through the zone, and while his flat swing was initially more geared for line drives, he has been getting it up in the air more and more with 6, 14, and 19 home runs in each of his three seasons, respectively. There is plus raw power in the tank that has gone from playing average to now above average in games. Previously a relatively aggressive hitter, he has trended in the right direction with his approach too and upped his walk rate from 9.5% to 10.6% to 12.8%. Getting better pitches to hit has helped him tap his power more in games, with his .469 on-base percentage and .710 slugging percentage both representing career highs in 2025. While you would think Irish a slugger, he actually stands out the most for his bat to ball, running excellent contact rates both inside and outside the zone and proving extremely difficult to strike out. In fact, he hit over .300 with an on-base percentage over .400 in a 62 game sample over two seasons in the elite Cape Cod League, proving one of the most professional bats in the class. His combination of big league physicality, hand-eye coordination, and improving loft and patience makes him a potential middle of the order masher in Baltimore. At peak, he could crush 25+ home runs per season while posting high batting averages. While his bat will play anywhere, Baltimore really hopes he can stick behind the plate. He's fringy back there for now with some clunkier actions, leading Auburn to play him primarily in right field in 2025, though he does have a strong arm. With robo-umps coming, Irish might have a better shot to stick, though he'll need to clean up the blocking. If not, his below average speed will make him a fringy but playable defender in an outfield corner. I am a big fan of this bat and frankly I think he'll be valuable even if he's a DH, which he won't be quite yet.

1C-30: C Caden Bodine, Coastal Carolina
Slot value: $3.11 million. Signing bonus: $3.11 million.
My rank: #37. MLB Pipeline: #32. Baseball America: #29.
The second straight catcher to start off the draft, Caden Bodine has a very, very different profile from Ike Irish. While Irish is a masher who may not stick behind the plate, Bodine is an ultra high contact bat who certainly will. His bat to ball is the stuff of legends. He consistently runs contact rates hovering around 90%, which is 70 grade territory, and he can go weeks without swinging and missing inside the strike zone. His strikeout rate in 2025 was a minuscule 7.7%, the third lowest of any college bat on my draft list (behind Jake Cook's 6.7% [Blue Jays] and Kane Kepley's 7.1% [Cubs]), the product of a simple, effortless swing that he repeats from both the left and right side of the plate with the utmost consistency. That was the case in the Cape Cod League as well, where he hit .382 and struck out just 12.6% of the time against some of the best pitchers college baseball has to offer. Now, that high contact approach comes with limited power. While he crushed eleven home runs as a freshman in 2023, he dropped to nine in 2024 and finished 2025 with just five. He runs pedestrian exit velocities and his stocky 5'10" frame is maxed out. This will not be a bat that challenges for double digit home run totals too often. Instead, it's more of a Mike Redmond-like profile that will get on base at a high clip for a long time. Meanwhile, Bodine is a sound defender who blocks well and really stands out for his framing, lauded as among the best in college baseball. So if we get robo umps, Baltimore is covered with Irish, and if we don't, Bodine will continue to steal strikes at a high clip. The South Jersey native has average arm strength, but it plays up because he gets rid of the ball quickly with accurate throws. To my eye, I see quite a few similarities to Kevin Bazzell coming out of Texas Tech a year ago, albeit with a slightly elevated profile all-around except in the power department, though Bazzell has struggled in the Nationals organization this year.

1C-31: SS Wehiwa Aloy, Arkansas
Slot value: $3.04 million. Signing bonus: $3.04 million.
My rank: #24. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #16.
Judging by most public rankings, I was one of the lower guys on Wehiwa Aloy and even I look at this as a steal. Aloy seemed more likely to hear his name in the teens than to drop into the thirties, yet the Orioles scooped him up at #31 and didn't even have to go over slot value to sign him. He began his career at Sacramento State, where he was named WAC Freshman of the Year and was a near-consensus First Team Freshman All-American, picking up the honor in virtually every publication but Baseball America. Transferring to Arkansas for his sophomore season, he couldn't quite replicate the success against SEC pitching as his batting average fell over one hundred points and his slugging percentage nearly two hundred. However, he showed extremely well on the Cape that summer (.309/.352/.642) and rode that success to a huge junior year in 2025, hitting .350/.434/.673 with 21 home runs in 65 games on his way to winning college baseball's most prestigious award – the Golden Spikes Award. Aloy is a ballplayer, to say the least. Clocking in at a listed 6'2", 200 pounds, he quietly taps plus raw power with a leveraged swing that he keeps under control and deploys to all fields. That power has given him 49 home runs in 181 career college games, plus eight in 21 games with wood bats on the Cape. He is an extremely aggressive hitter that has upped his walk rate from 5.7% as a freshman to 9.1% as a sophomore to 10.3% as a junior, but he's up there to hack. Aloy gets into trouble expanding the zone and has pretty consistently run strikeout rates in the 20% range virtually everywhere he's gone, which is a tad high for a first round college bat, but it simply has not impacted his production at all and no matter the caliber of arms he faces, the results seem to be the same – loud. He does not get cheated in his at bats and if he's going to come up empty, he'll come up empty three times on three "A" swings. Usually, he connects with one of them and he's finding extra bases. The feel for the barrel is excellent even if he swings and misses a fair amount, especially outside the zone. Sooner or later the aggressive approach may catch up with him, so the Orioles will watch for that as he reaches the upper levels of the minors and beyond. Aloy can move pretty well but lacks the plus speed of many big league shortstops, instead relying on improving glovework and a strong arm to get the job done. At this point, the Hawaiian has made enough progress defensively that he looks the part of a big league shortstop that can pick it with the pros, and if a Gold Glover forces him to second or third base, he could be a plus defender at either. The ultimate projection here could be 25+ home runs annually, though the on-base percentages could really end up anywhere.

CBA-37: OF Slater de Brun, Summit HS [OR]
Slot value: $2.63 million. Signing bonus: $4 million ($1.37 million above slot value).
My rank: #26. MLB Pipeline: #24. Baseball America: #30.
After signing college bats to slot value bonuses with their first three picks, the Orioles went way over slot value to give Slater de Brun a $4 million bonus and divert him away from a Vanderbilt commitment, money that represents roughly the value of the #22 pick. There has been a recent trend of undersized, powder keg prep outfielders from west of the Mississippi coming through following Jett Williams (Mets) and Slade Caldwell (Diamondbacks), and de Brun fits that mold. Generously listed at 5'10", 185 pounds, de Brun like Williams and Caldwell plays well above his size. He has a quick, adjustable left handed swing geared for line drives, and when combined with advanced plate discipline he is constantly finding his way on base and battering pitches all around the zone. There is solid pure bat to ball in the profile as well, and he had no trouble with Oregon high school pitching this year. Once he gets to two strikes, he widens his stance and limits his stride so as to make for one of the toughest strikeouts in prep baseball. While he's undersized, he has worked hard to pack strength onto his smaller frame and came out this spring looking pretty chiseled, giving what was previously well below average power a chance to get to fringy. It may not sound like much, but a potential .300 hitter with high on-base percentages knocking 10-15 home runs per season is an All Star. That's especially true when you consider de Brun's plus-plus speed and plus glovework in center field, giving him a shot to steal bases in bunches while competing for Gold Gloves out there. The Bend, Oregon native is a high-IQ baseball player with excellent instincts, strong makeup, and a high energy style of play that will endear him to Orioles fans quickly upon his arrival in a few seasons. To top it off, he is relatively young for the class and only turned 18 a month before the draft. Baltimore hopes it has its leadoff man and center fielder of the future here.

2-58: LHP Joseph Dzierwa, Michigan State
Slot value: $1.6 million. Signing bonus: $1.5 million ($100,600 below slot value),
My rank: #53. MLB Pipeline: #74. Baseball America: #50.
Pivoting to their first pitcher of the class after four straight bats, the Orioles also began to slowly recoup the seven figure hole they dug themselves into with their bonus pool after taking Slater de Brun in the competitive balance round. Joseph Dzierwa is a very interesting under slot candidate and one which I will enjoy following. A native of tiny Haskins, Ohio, about fifteen miles southwest of Toledo, he headed north to Michigan State for college and almost immediately jumped into the front of the Spartans rotation. After two solid seasons, he broke out with a massive 2025 in which he put up a 1.42 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 137/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.2 innings, enough to earn Big Ten Pitcher of the Year accolades. Perhaps his most impressive outing came on May 2nd, when he tossed a complete game, three hit shutout against eventual #12 national seed Oregon, striking out eleven against zero walks. Dzierwa is not a power pitcher, instead combining his size, handedness, and command to keep hitters perpetually off balance. The fastball sits in the low 90's and scrapes 95 at peak, but plays up with huge running action and extension. He works between a big, diving slider and a tighter cutter, while his above average changeup gives him a weapon against right handed hitters. There is no plus pitch in the arsenal and he'll especially need to sharpen up his breaking ball a bit, but he dots everything with plus command of all of his pitches, staying ahead of the count and in control of at bats. Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that he stands 6'8". That makes the entire at bat that much more uncomfortable for opposing hitters, especially lefties who see his three quarters arm slot firing the ball from behind their backs. If Dzierwa can add a couple ticks of velocity and sharpen his breaking balls, he has mid-rotation starter upside. There is a ton to work with in this profile and Baltimore's pitching development will certainly have fun helping the lanky lefty reach his ceiling.

CBB-69: RHP JT Quinn, Georgia
Slot value: $1.22 million. Signing bonus: $1.15 million ($76,300 below slot value).
My rank: #129. MLB Pipeline: #127. Baseball America: #144.
While Josep Dzierwa was the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year, JT Quinn might have flown a bit more under the radar on the national scene as a swingman at Georgia, though he had local scouts pounding the table for him especially down the stretch. He put up some strong performances in May then dominated in his three starts in the Cape Cod League just before the draft (2.57 ERA, 25/2 K/BB in 14 IP). Standing 6'6", he's nearly as tall as the 6'8" Dzierwa, but that is where the similarities end. Quinn was a well-known prospect out of high school and could have gone in the top five rounds if he was signable, but he instead opted to attend Ole Miss. Splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, he carried a 7.35 ERA over two seasons and transferred to Georgia, where he really put it together down the stretch as stated above. Quinn is a power arm with a mid 90's fastball that reaches as high as 98 in short stints, while his power slider as been refined into a true plus breaking ball. He's much more consistent with the slider than he is with his curveball, which he struggles to get down in the zone. Unlike most college pitchers who at least show a changeup from time to time, Quinn works entirely without one. He is extremely physical with an over the top delivery and ultra high release point, putting angry downhill plane on his pitches. The Tampa native has been honing his command as of late and walked just two of his 58 opponents on the Cape, lending a real possibility that he could start. He'll have to add a changeup and stay healthy in order to do so, but it looks much more likely than it did a few months ago. If not, he has shown he can be nasty as a fastball/slider power arm out of the bullpen.

3-93: OF RJ Austin, Vanderbilt
Slot value: $826,400. Signing bonus: $823,900 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #104. MLB Pipeline: #112. Baseball America: #189.
Two years ago, the Orioles picked up a speedy, high baseball IQ outfielder out of Vanderbilt in Enrique Bradfield. They're doing it again with RJ Austin. Like Ike Irish and JT Quinn, he was a highly regarded prep prospect that could have gone in the top couple of rounds, and over the past three seasons he has started 181 of Vanderbilt's 184 games. While he went through an abysmal slump in 2025, at one point going hitless for nearly three straight weeks (0-27 in 8 games) and finishing with unremarkable numbers, his under the hood numbers were better than the surface stat line and he remains an extremely fun player to watch go to work. Austin makes a ton of contact both inside the strike zone and out of it, slashing at the baseball with a quick right handed swing that is most certainly not geared for power. Still, he packs a lot of twitch into his 5'11" frame and produces solid exit velocities, lending hope that he could tap into some fringy power if he starts to elevate the ball more. For now, that's not his game and he actually dropped from seven home runs as a freshman to five as a sophomore to just two as a junior in 2025. Despite Austin's struggles at times in 2025, the Orioles remain convinced his combination of bat to ball, all fields approach, and sneaky pop could help him flirt with .300 batting averages in the majors. The Atlanta native did show well over two summers on the Cape (.325/.404/.433 in 44 games) and has shown the ability to make adjustments in the past. He is also a plus runner and knows his way around the outfield, giving him a shot to play center field or at least fill in there from time to time. However, his below average arm will push him to left field if he's pushed out of center. Austin is a high energy ballplayer that constantly finds ways to help his teams win games and will make for a great fourth outfielder at his median projection, with the potential for more if he can tap a little bit of power and stick in center field.

4-124: SS Colin Yeaman, UC Irvine
Slot value: $605,300. Signing bonus: $602,800 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #71. MLB Pipeline: #97. Baseball America: #172.
This has a chance to be a really sneaky good pick. Back east, we don't always think too much about the smaller West Coast programs, but those California mid-majors can really play some sound baseball and Colin Yeaman exemplifies that. He spent two years at the College of the Canyons in his hometown of Santa Clarita, where he torched California JuCo pitching to the tune of a .417/.510/.729 line. JuCo pitchers were thrilled when he transferred across the Los Angeles area down to UC Irvine, where at one point he put together back to back hitting streaks of 13 and 21 games. He is extraordinarily patient at the plate to the point where he can get too passive at times and allow pitchers to get ahead of him in the count, but that does mean that he almost never chases and won't get himself out. He has a very simple right handed swing with a slight uppercut that helps him not only make consistent contact, but make the most of his fringy raw power. You often hear about hitters with plus raw power that plays down in games, but he's the opposite with his fringy raw playing up into average game power. When Yeaman makes contact, you know that it will be his pitch and his A swing. Meanwhile, he possesses fringy supplemental tools that may push him to second base in the long run, where his bat could still carry him to an everyday role. The Orioles drafted him as a shortstop and he may have just enough arm strength and range to make it work, at least in a utility role. He projects for 15 home runs per season and high on-base percentages at his ceiling.

5-154: SS Jaiden Lo Re, Corona Del Sol HS [AZ]
Slot value: $452,000. Signing bonus: $562,500 ($110,500 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #413.
Going off the beaten path a bit, the Orioles grabbed Jaiden Lo Re off a loaded Corona Del Sol High School program that also included the more famous Brett Crossland, who spurned draft offers and is on his way to play for the Texas Longhorns. Lo Re is yet another ultra high contact type that slashed his way through strong Phoenix-area pitching with a linear right handed swing that gets on plane early and stays long through the zone. He easily sprays line drives around to all parts of the park, but at a smaller 5'11" and without much tendency to lift the ball, he has below average power. Unless the Orioles change up his approach in a major way, he likely does not reach double digit home runs, but he's yet another candidate to hit .300 in the majors. Lo Re plays shortstop now and has enough defensive explosiveness to profile there in a part time role, though like Colin Yeaman he might be stretched there if he has to play there every day. He could end up at second or third base, where his average defensive tools fit better. Like other players in this Orioles class, he has been described as a high energy player on both sides of the ball. His signing bonus was nearly a round above his slot value and he'll come to Baltimore rather than play for BYU.

6-184: LHP Caden Hunter, Southern California
Slot value: $347,100. Signing bonus: $344,600 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #149. Baseball America: #261.
The Orioles are getting a development project in Caden Hunter. Like Colin Yeaman, he spent two years in the California JuCo ranks, though his Sierra JC in Northern California never played Yeaman's College of the Canyons down in SoCal. He transferred to Southern Cal in 2025, where he pitched to inconsistent results but piqued teams' interests with a velocity bump late in the season. Typically sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and topping out around 95 early in games, Hunter hit 97 in some shorter outings leading up to the draft. The fastball plays up further with high riding action from a three quarters, crossfire slot. Hunter has a below average slider that backs up on him more often than it bites, while his average changeup gives him a somewhat reliable secondary offering. With some extra movement in his delivery including some rocking back and forth and a crouch as he delivers across his body, his command can get inconsistent and he walked 11.4% of his opponents in 2025. Still, there are reasons to like this pick. The 6'2" lefty is plenty physical and has the build to handle a full season in a major league rotation, and he moves well on the mound despite the average stuff. If the Orioles can streamline his delivery a little bit and find a breaking ball for him, he has a very decent shot to become a left handed back-end starting pitcher. If not, he likely winds up as a fastball/changeup long reliever.

Thursday, July 3, 2025

2025 MLB Draft: Evaluating the Nationals' Options at the Top

The 2025 MLB Draft is upon us, and for the first time since 2010, the Nationals possess the first overall pick. It appears that two frontrunners have emerged – Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday and LSU lefty Kade Anderson – but nothing is ever certain in the draft. By my count, without having inside information, there are likely about five other names the Nationals are likely considering at the top. It's a class without a clear top prospect, as none of the draft's biggest names has done enough to separate himself this spring and every prospect comes with some sort of blemish, however small. We'll explore the seven options below.

SS Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK]
Throughout the draft process, Ethan Holliday has been one of if not the most famous name in the class, and certainly so on the high school side. The son of former All Star Matt Holliday and brother of 2022 first overall pick and current Orioles second baseman Jackson Holliday, Ethan is a frontrunner to join his brother at the top. While his 2024 was more good than great, causing him to slip closer to the middle of the top ten prospects, he reasserted himself at the top with a strong spring blasting home runs left and right against Oklahoma high school pitching. Holliday stands out first and foremost for his power, easily plus from an ultra physical 6'4" frame reminiscent of his father. He's also a disciplined hitter with plenty of experience against top arms, though there is just enough swing and miss inside the strike zone to give some evaluators pause. Given the prodigious left handed power and a glove that will be enough to stick on the left side of the infield, likely at third base, it's clear that the Nationals aren't too concerned. He may not fly through the minors as quickly as his brother but he figures to be a star in the not-too-distant future. Brady House is at the beginning of his journey to establish himself as the team's long term answer at third base, but that's no reason to shy away from Holliday. One major factor here may be cost, as he does figure to be one of the most expensive players on the board with an Oklahoma State commitment in hand, where his uncle Josh is the head coach.

LHP Kade Anderson, Louisiana State
While Holliday has been in 1-1 discussions for years, Kade Anderson has only pushed his way into the middle of the conversation very recently. He may not be the best at any individual thing, steady performance capped with a complete game shutout in the College World Series Finals have proven that the sum of the parts rival any pitcher in the class. Listed at 6'2", 185 pounds, he's not small but still isn't the most physical arm in the class. Instead of reaching back for 100, he is content sitting in the low 90's with riding action from an otherwise normal fastball profile. His curveball has tremendous snap and keeps hitters off balance to say the least, while his newer cutter/slider has worked extremely well in addition. Anderson's changeup has also taken a step forward, giving him a full four pitch arsenal which he has great feel for. The command is also above average, which when combined with strong feel for pitching and ability to execute gives him the look of a frontline starter. With a classic starting pitching profile and a track record of performance in the SEC, Anderson is *exactly* how you would draw it up when looking for Mike Rizzo's dream pitcher at the top of the draft. He has been compared to unassuming but quietly dominant lefty aces like Cole Hamels and Max Fried. He is every bit as likely as Holliday to be the Nationals' pick at the top of the draft.

SS Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS [OK]
Ironically, Ethan Holliday isn't the only son of a Major Leaguer, small town Oklahoma high school shortstop on the Nats' radar for their first pick. While Holliday and Anderson are the frontrunners, Eli Willits may represent the next most likely pick and was actually invited to Nationals Park for a pre-draft workout. While not quite as tooled up as his Stillwater counterpart, Willits represents a more balanced profile that leaves scouts unable to find holes. As you'd expect from the son of Reggie Willits, he brings a high baseball IQ to the field despite being one of the youngest players in the class. Willits is a switch hitter with an approach at the plate well beyond his years, boasting a long track record of showcase performance under his belt and little fear of older pitching. Standing 6'1", he has some power but doesn't project to be a slugger, with 15-20 home runs per season looking more likely alongside high on-base percentages. It's a similar story at shortstop, where he is a sound defender and figures to stick until a twitcher, more explosive defender pushes him to third base. His Oklahoma commitment (where he would play for his father) figures to make him an expensive sign, but likely a bit cheaper than Holliday.

RHP Seth Hernandez, Corona HS [CA]
Seth Hernandez is right there with Willits in terms of the top non-Holliday or Anderson frontrunners. No high school right handed pitcher has ever been the first overall pick, but Hernandez is no ordinary high school righty and the Nationals do seem to have some interest. Simply put, he's how you draw it up. Standing 6'4", he's an athletic specimen who could be an early draft pick as a shortstop if he wasn't such a good pitcher. The fastball has hit 100 several times and comfortably sits in the mid to upper 90's, already giving him the look of a big league pitcher. His feel for spin was previously a bit of a knock against him, but he's sharpened up his breaking balls this spring and now looks to have a plus curveball and above average slider. The changeup has always been a weapon, giving him a full arsenal of big league pitches. While the command isn't pinpoint, Hernandez repeats his delivery well and hits his spots better than most high school arms, especially those with stuff as loud as his. High school pitchers, especially right handers, are among the riskiest picks you can make, but the Southern California product checks just about every box and will require much less development than most. He's committed to Vanderbilt and also figures to be expensive, but it seems that many of the teams picking immediately behind the Nationals are focused elsewhere and their main competition could come from teams picking outside the top five.

LHP Liam Doyle, Tennessee
If the Nationals go college pitcher, Kade Anderson is the clear frontrunner. However, Liam Doyle has arguably the loudest fastball in the country and I'm sure Mike Rizzo has checked in. The Angels, picking second, appear to be very interested and many mock drafts have him landing in Los Angeles. Doyle, a New Hampshire native, began his career at Coastal Carolina, transferred to Ole Miss for his sophomore year, then bounced to Tennessee as a junior this year. The fastball really ticked up and he wound up with one of the most eye popping seasons in the country, striking out a whopping 42.6% of his opponents on the way to an NCAA-second best 164 strikeouts, behind only Anderson's 180. The fastball steals the show in the mid 90's, peaking a 99, with explosive life through the zone that keeps hitters coming up empty even when they know it's coming. He has a traditional slider as well as more of a cutter, both above average pitches that will keep pro hitters off his fastball. While he doesn't use it as much, his splitter looks like it could be another solid pitch as he gains feel. While Anderson and Doyle both stand 6'2", Anderson is more of a string bean while Doyle brings a stockier build. He's not a great athlete and throws with some effort, creating some reliever risk, but pounded the zone with a solid 8.3% walk rate this year and held his velocity deep into starts. He could rocket to Nationals Park even though his edges are a littler rougher than Anderson's.

LHP Jamie Arnold, Florida State
A couple months ago, Jamie Arnold may have actually been a frontrunner for this spot alongside Ethan Holliday, but his star has faded just enough to push him closer to the back half of the top ten picks. Still, this is a loud profile and one the Nationals surely have watched closely all spring. Many a sidearming left hander has been compared to Chris Sale, and Arnold fits the bill. His low to mid 90's fastball reaches 97 at peak and runs hard to the arm side from his ultra low slot. The slider dives across the plate in the opposite direction, off the bat giving him two easy plus pitches that could get big league hitters out today. To reach his ceiling as a front of the rotation starter, he'll need to continue getting comfortable with his changeup, which is making progress but isn't quite at the level of consistency of his primary two pitches. Unlike most lefties with explosive stuff, the Tampa native also commands his arsenal very well, running a very solid 7.7% walk rate in 2025 and giving him a very well rounded profile. While he wasn't quite as electric down the stretch as some of the other college pitchers at the top of this class, his combination of stuff, deception, command, and handedness is hard to find. Arnold would likely be a bit cheaper than some of the names above him here and would enable the Nationals to spend big on a later pick.

SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Aiva Arquette is more or less the consensus top college hitting prospect in the class, with significant heat linking him to the Mariners at #3 or potentially even the Angels at #2. However, after drafting fellow college infielder Seaver King with their first pick last year, the Nationals do appear to be looking elsewhere for their pick at #1. Still, for an organization that has really, really struggled to develop bats, we shouldn't look past the possibility of Washington getting something relatively big league ready in that department. Arquette had a fantastic year at Oregon State and looks the part of a well-rounded prospect with few holes and plenty of upside. Standing 6'4", he has plus power and got to it consistently in 2025 as he showed the ability to elevate with authority. The hit tool is probably closer to average than plus, as he showed some in-zone swing and miss and can chase occasionally, but there is nothing glaring in that department and he still got on base at a .461 clip this year (and a nice .357 looking back to the Cape Cod League in 2024). He's big for a shortstop, but has impressed scouts with his actions there this spring and figures to stick at least at the outset of his career. If not, he'd be a well above average third baseman. In all, this profile is not too dissimilar to a right handed Ethan Holliday, with a bit better defense and a slightly less polished approach relative to his age group. Like Arnold and potentially Doyle or Willits, he could be a bit cheaper and save the Nationals some money for later rounds.

Dark Horse Candidates
At this point, I have a hard time seeing the Nationals selecting a player not listed above. That said, there are a few that have likely at least been brought up in draft room conversations in Washington and could conceivably fit the bill. Shortstop Billy Carlson, a teammate of Seth Hernandez at Corona High School, is a strong athlete with an elite glove. He has grown into more and more impact as he's matured, though he might be more of a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter at maturity. There are some parallels to Masyn Winn here and he likely finds himself closer to the back of the top ten picks. Right hander Kyson Witherspoon had a fantastic season at Oklahoma, running his fastball up to 99 while showing real feel for spin and keeping the walks way down. The Nationals likely feel that they can get similar upside in a left handed package, and Witherspoon may fall out of the top ten picks. Auburn's Ike Irish has been pushing his way up boards as of late, showing arguably the most potent bat in all of college baseball. It's very real power combined with strong bat to ball that makes him a virtual lock to hit at a high level in the big leagues. However, as a part time catcher who may fit better in an outfield corner, he doesn't fit the up-the-middle profile the Nationals and most teams seek at the top of the draft. Shortstop JoJo Parker has been another buzzy name late in the process, wowing scouts in Southern Mississippi with one of the most complete offensive profiles in the country. He's physical, shows above average power, and hits everything thrown at him. Like Ethan Holliday, he may slide to third base, but the bat is for real. He may not get out of the top ten picks. Lastly, this would probably be the biggest stretch in this dark horse section but UC Santa Barbara righty Tyler Bremner has quietly re-emerged as a premium pitching prospect. A 1-1 candidate before the season, he slipped back towards the middle of the first round as his stuff looked more ordinary, but he got hot down the stretch and is back to looking like himself. It's plenty of fastball up to 98 while his changeup might be the best cambio in the class. Bremner's slider isn't quite the wipeout pitch you look for at the top of the draft, but he makes up for it with above average command and a solid pitcher's frame. It's a traditional profile that fits the Mike Rizzo mold, though he likely fits just outside the top ten picks.

Monday, September 5, 2022

The top 12 unsigned high school position players from the 2022 draft

Only six college players from my 225-deep 2022 draft rankings are returning to school, but we have a lot more on the high school side heading to campus. We'll start by looking at the position players, ranked by where they fell on my 2022 board. Previous names to show up on this list include future/potential future first rounders Brooks Lee, Spencer Jones, Kevin Parada, Daniel Susac, Dylan Crews, Enrique Bradfield, and...you get the point. There are plenty of premium bats starting classes as we speak, many who could make an impact immediately at their new schools and some who may take a few years, like Jones, but the vast majority of these names will likely be major contributors if past lists are any indication. LSU is the only school to land multiple names on here and they have three, and they were also the only school with multiple names on the pitchers list as well. Throw in their incredible transfer class, and you have the most talented team in college baseball on paper.

1. SS Max Martin, Rutgers. My 2022 draft rank: #54.
Rutgers has to be thrilled to land Max Martin, a New Jersey native who is equally thrilled to represent his home state rather than follow his neighbors down south to schools like Maryland, Virginia, and UNC, which regularly poach the area for talent. Martin is the best high school prospect to reach New Brunswick in a long time, in fact one of the best high school prospects in a while to reach the Big Ten as a whole. He was a trendy name over the winter as one of the class's fastest risers and had a chance to hit his way into the first round with a strong spring, but didn't quite live up to expectations and here we are. Martin is an explosive hitter that shows big bat speed from the right side, producing high exit velocities from a line drive approach that could help him grow into average or better power despite a smaller 6', 180 pound frame. He makes a ton of hard contact and looked great at times over the summer and in the fall against high quality pitching, though he didn't beat up his South Jersey high school competition as much as hoped this spring. A plus runner that shows plenty of range at shortstop, he has enough arm strength to stick at shortstop at least throughout his time at Rutgers, if not beyond. The Philadelphia-area native is a high-IQ player that could slot into the Scarlet Knights' lineup from day one, and if he proves that last spring was only a fluke, he could become Rutgers' first first round pick since Todd Frazier in 2007. In any case, he should at least be the first Rutgers player selected in the first five rounds since Patrick Kivlehan was a fourth rounder in 2012.

2. OF Gavin Turley, Oregon State. My 2022 draft rank: #69.
If you're looking for this year's Dylan Crews, there are some parallels in Gavin Turley, though Turley is not nearly as polished as Crews was two years ago. Despite being raw all around, the fact that Oregon State's entire outfield was drafted in the top eight rounds means that Turley could jump straight into an every day role, and head coach Mitch Canham would be thrilled if that happened. What Turley lacks in polish, he makes up in raw ability. He shows off tremendous raw power from a big, explosive right handed swing that produces huge exit velocities, though his approach is raw and he doesn't quite have the barrel control you need to hit Pac-12 pitching just yet. If he does end up being thrust into the lineup right away, that could lead to some growing pains, but the ceiling is huge and I can't imagine it will take him too long to adjust. Meanwhile, he is also a plus-plus runner with a plus arm that could become a monster on the defensive side of the ball as well. Similarly to his hitting, his defense is raw and he'll need to improve his instincts to play center field, so it seems more likely he'd end up in right field to start out. Turley is every bit talented enough to swing his way into the top half of the first round after three years in Corvallis, but he does have a ways to go to reach that ceiling.

3. C Malcolm Moore, Stanford. My 2022 draft rank: #70.
Stanford got highly acclaimed prep Drew Bowser to campus two years ago and all he's done is slash .297/.355/.534 with 25 home runs in his two seasons, and now the Cardinal have an equally famous bat coming in. Malcolm Moore is the latest bat-first catcher to come out of the Central Valley, following Tyler Soderstrom and Daniel Susac, who both went on to become first round picks for the local A's. Moore has a chance to play right away, as last year's starting catcher Kody Huff went to the Rockies in the seventh round and the team's two returners behind the plate, Charlie Saum and Alberto Rios, combine for exactly two career hits. He can really swing it, showing off above average power from a very strong 6'2" frame. He's very fluid in the box for a big guy, working from a coiled load and a rotational left handed swing to put plenty of loft on the ball. Not just a slugger, Moore has a strong track record against high end pitching and is plenty advanced enough to handle Pac-12 pitching right away. There is a lot of pre-pitch movement before he gets the barrel going towards the zone, but it's nothing terribly concerning. Meanwhile, I imagine Stanford will give him the opportunity to play behind the plate, but he ultimately looks like a first baseman long term with stiff actions and a fringy arm. Still, there is plenty enough bat to play. With a July 31st birthday, the Sacramento native beats the cutoff by one day and will be draft-eligible again as a sophomore in 2024, like Susac at Arizona.

4. SS Jalin Flores, Texas. My 2022 draft rank: #82.
Texas' last shortstop, Trey Faltine, was a very highly regarded prospect when he hit campus, and they'll get to replace him with another one now that he's off to the Reds as a seventh rounder. While Faltine was primarily known for his defense and athleticism, Jalin Flores is more of a bat-first type that may not stick at shortstop. He'll have that opportunity at Texas with Faltine gone, but long term into pro ball, it's probably 50/50 whether he ends up there or at third base with more arm than range. He has a big league body to grow into, with a very projectable 6'2" frame with plenty of room to fill out. The San Antonio product has a chance to grow into above average power as he fills out, with a leveraged right handed swing that will be conducive to tapping that power in games. He also shows the ability to go to all fields with an average hit tool, so all the building blocks are there to become a middle of the order force in Austin. Born on the exact same day as Malcolm Moore, he'll also be draft-eligible again in 2024 and may not be wearing orange for long, but with a couple years of performance in the Big 12 he could hit his way into the top fifty picks, perhaps even the first round if he shows he can stick at shortstop.

5. SS Gavin Kilen, Louisville. My 2022 draft rank: #85.
The ACC's top incoming position player prospect, Gavin Kilen has a chance to be a big problem at Louisville. I see a number of parallels between his game and that of first overall pick Jackson Holliday before his breakout, and Kilen could be just a little bit of physical development away from becoming a star. He is extremely polished in the box and makes a ton of all-fields contact from the left side, looking right at home against premium pitching. The power may take some time to come, as he's skinny at 5'11" and presently lacks much impact. His stock actually took a bit of a hit this spring, when he hit too many ground balls and and soft liners for scouts' liking even if he was making very consistent contact. If he can put on a little bit of strength and just get to fringe-average power, the offensive profile suddenly becomes very, very attractive. Even at present, his IQ in the box should help him slot into the Louisville lineup right away, though Louisville does return both its star middle infielders in shortstop Christian Knapczyk and second baseman Logan Beard and Kilen may have to pay his dues in the outfield to start things out. Once he does get a shot at the infield, he could follow Knapczyk at shortstop with very fluid actions around the dirt and enough arm strength to make it work. His arm may push him to second base in the long run, but it's an attractive defensive profile regardless. He'll fit very well into a Louisville lineup filled with high-OBP types.

6. SS Anthony Silva, Texas Christian. My 2022 draft rank: #89*.
Anthony Silva removed his name shortly before the draft, so he technically did not rank on my final list and the #89 ranking represents where he would have landed had he taken part. A premium athlete that had many teams interested on day one of the draft, he had a poor showing at the MLB Draft Combine in June and saw his stock tumble a bit, so he'll head to TCU to put that event behind him. At his best, Silva shows off a very intriguing bat from the right side, with plenty of loft and bat speed for now and a very projectable 6'2" frame promising more power as he fills out. He also makes plenty of contact for now, but does need to find more consistency with the Horned Frogs to fully tap his offensive potential. The San Antonio native is more advanced as a shortstop right now, with turning in some plus-plus run times that give him great range in addition to a plus arm. At his best, he looks like a premium defender there whose glove can buy his bat plenty of time. The Combine performance told many evaluators that Silva may not be the premium athlete they thought he was, and many of his tools lost a half grade or more, so the first order of business in Fort Worth will be to get back to his peak physically. If he can do that while adding strength and impact at the plate, he has the makings of a very early draft pick. He'll want to do so quickly, because he'll be draft eligible again as a sophomore in 2024.

7. SS Cameron Smith, Florida State. My 2022 draft rank: #90.
Cam Smith had some helium this spring when he got off to a hot start, though a strong commitment to Florida State combined with concerns over his age got him to Tallahassee. He's the age of a college sophomore as he steps on campus for the first time and will be draft-eligible again in 2024, so the FSU coaching staff will expect him to adjust fairly quickly. Smith has a very clean swing from the right side and made a ton of contact against strong competition in South Florida this spring, with an advanced approach and strong feel for the barrel. He packs solid power into his strong 6'3" frame, with the chance to get to above average as he gets stronger and more explosive. Jordan Carrion is retuning to Tallahassee this spring after serving as the starting shortstop a year ago, so I don't expect Smith to slot in at the premium position right away, but he will have a chance to take over if Carrion goes pro after next season. Smith is smooth and sure-handed on the infield, but he may not have the range to play shortstop long term and probably fits better at third base. Florida State was really starved for offense last year, so they'll welcome any spark with open arms and Smith has a very good chance to provide that right away.

8. OF Paxton Kling, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #93*
Like Anthony Silva, Paxton Kling removed his name from the draft and wasn't on my final rankings, but would have ranked #93 if he took part. LSU has put together a loaded roster for 2023, including returning Dylan Crews, Gavin Dugas, Brayden Jobert, Josh Pearson, and Josh Stevenson all in the outfield, so it will be very difficult for Kling to find playing time in the short run. Given that he already turned 19 back in May and will be draft eligible again as a sophomore, he will want to find those at bats quickly to build his stock for 2024. The good news is that he is every bit talented enough to break through that crowded outfield picture and do so. He takes huge hacks from the right side that generate above average power, and he could grow into plus power as he fills out his 6'2" frame. Kling also shows good pitch recognition skills and solid barrel adjustability for a power hitter, giving him a shot at an above average hit tool in a best case scenario. It's important to note that he spent his high school career facing much younger competition, though, and once that script flips in college, SEC arms could find holes in a swing that tends to get long when he's looking for power. How the central Pennsylvania native adjusts to that new dynamic will determine how quickly he can force his way into Jay Johnson's lineup, but he has every opportunity to become an impact hitter for the Tigers if he does adjust well. His defense will help, as he is an above average runner with a strong arm that can fit very well at any outfield position and provide value. LSU will feature a ferocious lineup this year, and the fact that a bat like Kling's may not get regular playing time is just further proof of that.

9. C Brady Neal, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #97.
Speaking of LSU's loaded lineup, Paxton Kling isn't the only big name hitter reaching campus. Fortunately for Brady Neal, his path to playing time won't be quite as crowded as last year's starting catcher, Tyler McManus, graduated, leaving last year's primary backup, Hayden Travinski, and incoming freshman Jared Jones as Neal's main competition. Additionally, Neal will have a little less pressure on him to get at bats right away, as he's nearly a year and a half younger than Kling after reclassifying into the class of 2022 and is still just 17 years old. Despite his youth, he is extremely advanced and should adjust to SEC pitching well, taking very professional at bats with sound pitch recognition skills. We're still working on the pure bat to ball skills, but that should come in time as he continues to select good pitches to hit. Despite standing just 5'10", he's also starting to show more power in games and could get to average in that regard from a clean, leveraged left handed swing. Meanwhile, the Tampa-area product caught plenty of high-octane arms during his time at IMG Academy, so when Christian Little and Paul Skenes come out pumping upper 90's, he'll be ready. He stands out for his athleticism behind the plate more than his pure glovework, but again, he's very young and that should catch up in time. A strong arm rounds out what is a very, very well rounded profile, and even if Travinski or Jones wins the starting job in 2023, Neal should eventually claim it as his own and will be draft eligible again well before his 21st birthday in 2025.

10. 3B Estevan Moreno, Notre Dame. My 2022 draft rank: #98.
Estevan Moreno is a personal favorite of mine, and as far as I know you won't find him in the top one hundred on any other draft lists. While he's not the most famous name set to reach campus this spring, I think he could change that very quickly in South Bend. Moreno is coming off a strong spring where he pushed himself up draft boards, showing off a strong combination of power and polish. He generates a ton of torque in his strong right handed swing, with big pull side power that he can tap in games. Meanwhile, he employs an effective all-fields approach and is more than willing to go to right field, but he does tap his power better to the pull side. At Notre Dame, he'll have an opportunity to refine that approach and better spread his power out to all fields, and if he does so without sacrificing contact he could surprise some people as one of the better hitters in the ACC. The Chicago-area product is an unremarkable defender at third base, but may get the opportunity to play there after 2022 starter Jack Brannigan was the only position player drafted off the team. Even if he has to move to left field, I'm a believer in Moreno's bat and I think he could be a very interesting sleeper in the ACC.

11. SS Gavin Guidry, Louisiana State. My 2022 draft rank: #109.
LSU isn't done yet after outfielder Paxton Kling and catcher Brady Neal, because 2022 Louisiana Gatorade Player of the Year Gavin Guidry will stay home and join the Pennsylvanian and Floridian in Baton Rouge. And with third baseman Jacob Berry gone to the Marlins, second baseman Cade Doughty now with the Blue Jays, and incoming transfer and shortstop Carter Young unexpectedly signing with the Orioles in the seventeenth round, Guidry has a chance to jump right in and play right from the get go. His positional versatility helps as well, as perhaps his best asset is his athleticism that allows him to profile virtually anywhere. He's an above average runner that moves very well on the defensive side of the ball, showing the hands and arm strength to stick at shortstop or the speed to play center field. Jordan Thompson probably won't give up the shortstop position so easily, but he could easily replace Berry at third base or Doughty at second base and be a defensive upgrade over either of them. At the plate, Guidry again shows a balanced skill set with a patient approach at the plate and strong hand eye coordination to execute when he does get his pitch. He's still growing into his 6'2" frame but could eventually tap above average power if things break right, making for a profile with few holes. The Lake Charles native is already 19 and will be eligible again in 2024, so he has two years to make his impact in Baton Rouge unless he spurns the draft again.

12. C Ike Irish, Auburn. My 2022 draft rank: #123.
Auburn won't be hurting for catching depth next year, bringing back starter Nate LaRue and backup/utility man Ryan Dyal in addition to landing JuCo transfer Carter Wright from Iowa Western. That will make Ike Irish's quest for immediate playing time somewhat difficult, but nobody from that group is a particularly imposing hitter and I don't think head coach Butch Thompson would mind getting a little more production out of that spot in the lineup. Irish is a bit raw, which may make a gradual transfer of power more likely than jumping into the every day role right away, but there is big time upside here. He stands out for above average raw power from the left side, with a big swing that gets long and uphill through the zone. He loves to get his arms extended and drive the ball in the air, which will be very conducive to big home run totals at Auburn. The hit tool is more raw here, as he struggles to recognize quality breaking balls and showed more swing and miss this past spring than expected, so transitioning to SEC pitching may take a little time. The Auburn coaching staff will hope to help him make the necessary adjustments there sooner rather than later, but all that depth they have behind the plate takes some pressure off. The Michigan native stands out for his plus-plus ram behind the plate that will really limit the running game, with solid athleticism that will keep him behind the plate. He's more strong than quick twitch and will need to refine his glovework a little bit, but that's nothing out of the ordinary for an incoming freshman catcher.

Honorable Mentions
#126 OF Jayson Jones, Arkansas
#128 OF Jeric Curtis, Texas Tech
#132 OF Peyton Brennan, UCLA
#133 OF Mason Neville, Arkansas
#135 OF Max Belyeu, Texas
#148 1B Jayden Hylton, Stetson
#149 SS Drew Faurot, Central Florida
#155 C Beau Sylvester, Oklahoma State
#156 C Adonys Guzman, Boston College
#159* SS RJ Austin, Vanderbilt