The Marlins' system is in a much better spot than it was a year ago, and that's in large part due to pitching success at High A Jupiter, where Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers all took big steps forward. The acquisitions of Sixto Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, and Jazz Chisholm, plus the drafting of JJ Bleday, have been huge as well, and Sixto in particular leads the system as a potential true ace. Meanwhile, the position player group has been a really interesting one. Just since the end of the 2018 season, they have spent over $19 million to reel in five amateur hitters: Bleday ($6.67M), Victor Victor Mesa ($5.25M), Jose Salas ($2.8M), Nasim Nunez ($2.2M), and Kameron Misner ($2.12M). They'll really be leaning on those players to carry the system from a hitting perspective, because their aggressive approach of pushing young, raw hitters through the minors has likely hurt the development of highly regarded amateurs like Connor Scott and Will Banfield, the two of whom they spent nearly $6 million on in the 2018 draft.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes*, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Clinton LumberKings, short season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*AAA affiliate will move from New Orleans, LA to Wichita, KS in 2020
Catcher
- Will Banfield (2020 Age: 20): High school catchers are the riskiest demographic to draft from, but the Marlins had success in the past with J.T. Realmuto so they grabbed Atlanta-area high schooler Will Banfield in the competitive balance round in 2018 and pushed him aggressively to Class A in his pro debut. Personally, I don't think that was the best decision, and in 2019 he slashed just .199/.252/.310 with nine home runs and a 121/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Class A Clinton. Banfield has good power in his right handed swing, but he struggled with swing and miss even in high school and his bat flat out wasn't ready for South Atlantic League pitching in his age-19 season. His glove, on the flip side, was, and his cannon arm means he should be an above average defensive catcher at the major league level. The bat will take patience, though, as he learns to find the strike zone and tap that power consistently, and that will probably take more time than the Marlins had hoped. He'll be just 20 for all of 2020, so if I were them, I'd have Banfield repeat Class A.
- Keep an eye on: Nick Fortes, Arquimedes Cumana
Corner Infield
- Lewin Diaz (2020 Age: 23): It's been a long time coming for Diaz, who signed with the Twins for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, but 2019 was finally the breakout year everyone was waiting for. Despite being shipped to the Marlins midway through the season for Sergio Romo, he slashed .270/.321/.530 with 27 home runs and a 91/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games between High A and AA. Diaz's power is very, very real, as he uses his 6'4" frame and explosive left handed swing to drive the ball to all fields. He's an aggressive hitter who usually does not get deep enough into the count to draw walks, but he also has very good feel for the barrel that helps him keep his strikeout rates very low for a power hitter. That gives him a very favorable outlook at the next level if he can get over that last hump, and he could hit 30+ home runs annually. Defensively, he's limited to first base, but the bat should profile there.
- Evan Edwards (2020 Age: 22-23): The Marlins took Edwards as an under slot senior sign in the fourth round out of NC State in 2019, but a successful pro debut means he might be more than just a money saver. In extensive action, he hit .281/.357/.442 with nine home runs and an 83/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at Class A Clinton, showing that the big raw power he had in college will play up in pro ball. He struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances up at Clinton, which is a bit high, but I'd actually take that if I'm the Marlins. He has a long swing and there were questions as to how that would be exploited in pro ball, so high strikeout rates were already expected, and Class A is a fairly aggressive assignment for a player in his pro debut. The pressure will be on Edwards' bat to continue to produce, as he's a first baseman only, but I'm interested to see how he fares in a full season in 2020.
- Nic Ready (2020 Age: 23): You could say it's been a good year for Nic Ready. He put up a big senior year for the Air Force Academy in the spring, graduated and was personally congratulated by President Trump in May, then got drafted by the Marlins in the 23rd round in June. It didn't stop there, though, as he went on to slash .263/.311/.508 with ten home runs and an 82/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at short season Batavia, also smacking 30 doubles and a pair of triples. He has a long swing that led to an elevated strikeout rate in pro ball, but he is also adept at finding the barrel and can spray deep line drives all over the park with ease. He'll have to shorten up his swing to keep from being exploited by higher level pitching, but it's as good of a start as you can have and with his natural Air Force work ethic, he's a good bet to outplay his draft position.
- Keep an eye on: Joe Dunand, Lazaro Alonso
Middle Infield
- Jazz Chisholm (2020 Age: 22): Chisholm is part of the new wave of Bahamian talent hitting pro ball, and so far, he might already be the best player from the islands since Andre Rodgers of the 1960's Giants, Cubs, and Pirates. Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, he was shipped to Miami in 2019 for Zac Gallen during a season in which he slashed .220/.321/.441 with 21 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 147/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between the two AA affiliates. Despite standing just 5'11", he's an extra base machine with his explosive swing, which produces lots of hard contact to all fields. The end result is a lot of home run power and balls in the gaps, which he can leg out with his above average speed. The one thing holding Chisholm back offensively is his tendency to swing and miss, which is a product of his big swing. He does have the strike zone judgement to draw his share of walks, so he really needs to just focus on finding the barrel more and may need to tone down his big uppercut. He's also a good defensive shortstop, so he has the potential to impact the game on both sides of the ball. Whether he can make enough contact is really the only thing between him and a ceiling of 20-25 home runs with good on-base percentages.
- Jose Devers (2020 Age: 20): We might have all made up our minds about the Giancarlo Stanton trade, but Jose Devers, who had just turned 18 when he was shipped from New York to Miami as part of the return, means we'll have to wait a little longer. In 2019, he slashed .322/.391/.390 with eight stolen bases and a 26/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games between Class A Clinton, High A Jupiter, and complex level rehab work despite missing time with groin and forearm issues. Devers is extremely advanced for his age, showing exceptional contact ability even against pitchers much older than himself, and it's a pretty safe bet that he'll be able to hit his way up to the majors. His swing is very contact-oriented and at a listed 155 pounds, he doesn't hit for a ton of impact, so the Marlins will want Devers to continue to add weight and grow into his 6' frame so he can eventually be a threat for lots of doubles and triples with his speed. He's a very good defender at shortstop and could be a Gold Glover if he's forced over to second base, taking pressure off his bat, and he'll play all of 2020 at just 20 years old.
- Nasim Nunez (2020 Age: 19): The Marlins drafted Nunez out of an Atlanta-area high school in the second round in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal for $2.2 million. Personally, I think that's a lot to spend on a high schooler whose bat is almost completely unproven, but the Marlins will hope he takes a similar path to Jose Devers. In his pro debut, Nunez slashed .200/.327/.238 with 28 stolen bases and a 48/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Batavia, showing no power whatsoever but also better plate discipline than expected. Nunez was drafted for his glove, and he might be the best defensive shortstop in the system, so there is very little pressure on the bat for the 5'9" switch hitter. That said, he still needs to hit a little, and while the high walk rate is a nice start, he's going to have to learn to drive the ball more and start to hit for some real impact, even if it's just doubles and triples power. He's a great runner who stole 28 bases in 30 tries in complex ball, so getting on base will be key if he wants to maximize his value.
- Jose Salas (2020 Age: 17): It will probably be a few years before we even know what kind of prospect Salas is, but the Marlins liked his upside enough that they signed him out of Venezuela for $2.8 million in 2019. Born in 2003, he won't even turn 17 until April, and it's the athleticism that the Marlins are buying more than anything else. He's fast, produces some good power from both sides of the plate, has a good approach, and is athletic if somewhat raw at shortstop. There's a lot to teach, but since they got him this young, the Marlins also hope there's a lot of room to grow.
- Keep an eye on: Gosuke Katoh, Bryson Brigman, Riley Mahan, Osiris Johnson
Outfield
- Jesus Sanchez (2020 Age: 22): Lewis Brinson is looking like a bust now 200+ games into his big league career, but fortunately, the Marlins do have a nice crop of young outfielders coming up the pipeline behind him. Jesus Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson trade at the 2019 deadline, might be the next to break into the majors after slashing .260/.325/.398 with 13 home runs and a 100/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between AA and AAA this year. Big and strong at 6'3", he's more concerned with just spraying line drives around and making consistent hard contact, but it might do him good to start lifting the ball just a little bit more to tap his above average raw power. He's a very competent hitter that has no problem finding the barrel, even against advanced pitching, and if he tries to tap that power a little more, he could hit 15-20 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. He also profiles well in right field with sound defense and a good arm.
- Monte Harrison (2020 Age: 24-25): I see a lot of shades of Lewis Brinson here. Harrison, who is just over a year younger, is also a 6'3" right handed hitter with tools all over the place who hasn't quite put it together yet. Drafted in the second round out of a Kansas City-area high school way back in 2014, Harrison hit .270/.351/.441 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 74/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games in 2019, mostly at AAA New Orleans with a brief rehab stint at High A Jupiter. He generates a lot of power from an explosive right handed swing, though with that power comes a lot of swing and miss, and in fact, his 215 strikeouts in 2018 led the minor leagues that year. He's managed to cut his strikeout rate just a bit in 2019, but in order to get over the hump in the majors, there will be more work to do. Fortunately, Harrison has a lot of other traits to like, including his plus speed and exceptional arm strength from the outfield. He's very close to major league ready, and despite turning 25 next season, he maintains a high ceiling if he can figure out how to put the last few pieces together.
- JJ Bleday (2020 Age: 22): Bleday had a huge breakout junior season at Vanderbilt, where he led Division I baseball with 27 home runs despite facing the gauntlet of SEC pitching, and he rode that to being drafted fourth overall by the Marlins in 2019. Aggressively pushed to High A Jupiter to start his career, he started slow but heated up as he got his footing, finishing with a .257/.311/.379 slash line, three home runs, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. Bleday is pretty much as close as you'll find to a complete hitter straight out of college, as he combines tremendous feel for the barrel with great raw power to hit lots and lots of home runs against advanced pitching. Defensively, he's more or less average in right field, but his strong arm helps him provide at least some value out there. He should move quickly and, with a little luck, he could be in the big leagues at some point in 2020. His ceiling is 35-40 home runs annually with good on-base percentages – i.e., a true middle of the order hitter.
- Victor Victor Mesa (2020 Age: 23-24): Mesa was one of the most hyped international prospects this year after defecting from Cuba, and he and his younger brother Victor signed with the Marlins shortly thereafter, the elder brother getting a whopping $5.25 million. Unfortunately, his pro career hasn't gone as planned so far, as he hit just .235/.274/.263 with 18 stolen bases and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville. He didn't have much of a problem making contact against quality pitching, but the problem was that he rarely found the barrel and was more likely to roll over a ground ball or pop up than he was to really drive one. He'll need to take a step back and really work on his pitch recognition and hand eye coordination, because even though he put up slap hitter numbers, he doesn't have a slap hitter swing. At this point, he probably looks like more of a fourth outfielder, but he's also just 116 games into his pro career and he has a chance to show that 2019 was just growing pains, not his true talent level. He is exceptional in the outfield with speed, instincts, and a great arm, and that (plus the signing bonus) buys the bat a lot of time.
- Kameron Misner (2020 Age: 22): Misner had an enigmatic career at Missouri, hitting really, really well most of the time until slumping hard in SEC play in his junior year. He had previously positioned himself to potentially go somewhere in the top half of the first round, but the SEC skid dropped him to the competitive balance round, where the Marlins picked him up with the 35th pick in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit .270/.388/.362 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 42/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and Class A Clinton, which was at least a nice sign in a small sample even if he didn't hit for much power. Misner is a tooled up prospect who really looks like a ballplayer at 6'4" with good power, speed, and defense. He was able to get to that power consistently against weaker non-conference opponents in both 2018 and 2019, but a broken foot kept him out of SEC play in 2018 and he had that slump in 2019, so he came into the draft completely unproven against higher level pitching. He did a good job of keeping that strike zone at least reasonably down in pro ball and he drew a lot of walks, and if he can pull it together by finding his power stroke in 2020, this could look like a steal for Miami with Misner's upside of 25-30 home runs annually with plenty of stolen bases and good defense.
- Connor Scott (2020 Age: 20): Miami drafted Scott in the middle of the first round out of a Tampa high school in 2018, though he hasn't quite figured it out in pro ball as the Marlins have pushed him aggressively. In 2019, he slashed .248/.310/.359 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 117/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter as his baseball skills haven't quite caught up to his physical tools. Long and lanky at 6'4", he's more of a line drive hitter that relies on his good feel for the barrel to hit for impact at the plate, at least for now. There may be some power to tap into as he adds strength and leverage in his swing, but it hasn't shown up yet and I don't think the Marlins aggressively pushing him to High A as a teenager is going to help. Meanwhile, he's a great athlete with a ton of speed and a strong arm that could make him a plus defensive center fielder in time, and it's already helping him steal bases. The glove and high draft position will by the bat time, and he remains a breakout candidate even after the so-so 2019.
- Peyton Burdick (2020 Age: 23): Burdick absolutely mashed as a Wright State redshirt junior in 2019, slashing an unbelievable .407/.538/.729 against the Raiders' relatively weak Horizon League schedule, and the Marlins picked him up in the third round with hopes that he could make the leap up to pro ball and continue hitting for impact. As it turns out, he could, and his exceptional pro debut saw him slash .308/.407/.542 with eleven home runs and a 72/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, mostly at Class A Clinton. Burdick turns 23 right at the start of spring training, so he's not exactly the youngest prospect around, but he's extremely well everywhere he's gone and it wouldn't be smart to bet against his bat. He generates above average raw power with great feel for the barrel from the right side, and while he'll probably have a good amount of swing and miss at first while he transitions up from Horizon League pitching, he should cut it down reasonably going forward. To me, he looks like a 20-25 homer bat with decent on-base percentages, which would be enough to start in left field if he can get there.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (2020 Age: 18): Victor Mesa Jr. joined his older brother Victor Victor Mesa in defecting from Cuba last year, and while Victor Victor got $5.25 million, the younger Victor Jr. landed a nice $1 million bonus from the same Marlins. And while Victor Victor disappointed in his pro debut, Victor Jr. actually exceeded expectations, slashing .284/.366/.398 with a home run, seven stolen bases, and a 29/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's not too dissimilar of a hitter from Jose Devers in that he has great feel for the barrel and the strike zone at a very young age, and while he doesn't hit for much power at present, he has enough athleticism and strength to eventually hit for average power despite standing just 5'11". He will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old, and with the way the Marlins like to push their young prospects, he could be in the majors at a very young age if he keeps hitting the way he's hitting and adds some power. However, unlike his brother, his defense plays closer to average, so his bat will have to carry him up.
- Keep an eye on: Brian Miller, Stone Garrett, Tristan Pompey, Jerar Encarnacion, J.D. Orr
Starting Pitching
- Sixto Sanchez (2020 Age: 21-22): Sixto was part of the return for J.T. Realmuto last offseason, and few minor league pitchers have a higher ceiling than he does. In his first season in the Marlins system, he posted a 2.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville, starting a bit slow but finishing strong with a 0.90 ERA and a 35/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 40.1 innings over his final seven starts. Sixto is truly an elite talent, combining plus stuff with plus command in a way that very few other pitchers can. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, touching 100, and he can put some sink on it when he wants to to get lots of ground ball outs. His curve is a hammer and his changeup misses bats as well, and since he can put them where he wants them, they all play up. Unfortunately, the one downside in Sanchez's profile is health – at six feet tall, he's a bit undersized, and he missed time with elbow problems in 2018. He set a career high with 114 innings in 2019, which is both good news and bad news in that he proved he was healthy after those elbow problems but also bad news in that he'd never even topped 95 innings before. If Sixto can get past those durability concerns, he has true ace potential, and I think he'll post great numbers no matter what, just perhaps in smaller samples if he ends up breaking down.
- Sterling Sharp (2020 Age: 24-25): The Nationals kind of surprisingly left Sharp unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft, and the Marlins scooped him up with the third pick a few weeks ago. That means after posting a 3.53 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings between AA and some lower level rehab work, Sharp will have to spend the entire season on the Marlins' active major league roster or else they'll have to send him back. Sharp should have very little trouble sticking in the majors, as he's a very advanced arm who stands out for his athleticism, control, and ability to sink his low 90's fastball for consistent ground ball outs. He also adds a decent slider and a good changeup, an overall average arsenal that the Marlins will hope plays up due to his feel for pitching. Overall, it's a #4 starter projection, though he'll likely pitch in the bullpen in 2020.
- Nick Neidert (2020 Age: 23): Neidert, a Mariners second rounder out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, has worked his way up slowly but with good numbers along the way, though a knee injury slowed him down in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.67 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 46/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 innings between High A Jupiter, AAA New Orleans, and complex level rehab work, the first time he'd ever had an ERA above 3.45 or a WHIP above 1.17. Acquired from Seattle as part of the return for Dee Gordon in 2017, Neidert is perhaps the most advanced pitcher in the system after from Sixto Sanchez, as he makes solid stuff play up great command and overall feel for mixing his pitches. He throws a lot to mid 90's fastball, adds a decent curve that stands out more for his ability to locate it than its actual movement, and gets most of his outs with a great changeup. His command wasn't quite as sharp in 2019 after the knee injury, and that exposed his overall arsenal a bit, so getting back to that plus command will help him become a #4 or #5 starter in the very near future.
- Braxton Garrett (2020 Age: 22-23): The Marlins picked up Garrett with the seventh overall pick in the 2016 draft out of a Northern Alabama high school, but he went down with Tommy John surgery just four starts into his pro career and missed most of 2017 and all of 2018. Returning in 2019, almost three years after he was drafted, he didn't miss a beat and posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 119/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings, mostly at High A Jupiter with one rough start at AA Jacksonville. Garrett is a very balanced pitcher with good stuff and good command, though aside from a great curveball that functions as his out pitch, nothing stands out as plus. He sits in the low 90's and adds an advanced changeup, and while his command was a bit spotty in 2019, he had a very good feel for the strike zone in high school and he should regain that feel as he gets farther away from all that time off. Garrett has the ceiling of a #2 or a #3 starter, though that is contingent of him getting back to hitting his spots and filling up the strike zone, and a very good chance of becoming at least a #4.
- Edward Cabrera (2020 Age: 22): Perhaps the biggest breakout star in the system, Cabrera was a little known prospect until a solid 2018 at Class A (4.22 ERA, 93/42 K/BB) at least put him on the map. Then in 2019, the Dominican prospect posted a 2.23 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 116/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville. He sits in the mid 90's with his running fastball, which is his best pitch, and he took a step forward in 2019 because he got more consistent with his command of the pitch. His slider is coming along as he continues to refine the pitch, and his changeup has come along as well. The next steps will be to just continue to refine and refine, and he'll need to prove his durability as well with a career high of just 100.1 innings in 2018. Still, with a little more refinement, his fastball should be enough to lead the way for a career as a #3 or #4 starter.
- Trevor Rogers (2020 Age: 22): It took Rogers a bit to find his footing in pro ball, as he didn't pitch in 2017 after being drafted in the middle of the first round out of a New Mexico high school, then struggled to a 5.82 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A in 2018. However, he figured it out in 2019, posting a 2.90 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 150/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 136.1 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville, the biggest difference, like Cabrera, being taking a big step forward with his command. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and that velocity comes pretty easily as he doesn't throw with much effort. The rest of his arsenal is beginning to take shape with a curveball, a slider/cutter, and a changeup, which are all better than when he was drafted but which still need more refinement. With his command now safely above average, the Marlins can have him focus on those secondary pitches and hopefully reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.
- Humberto Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia was never a top prospect, and that's why he's moved very slowly through the system since signing for $50,000 out of Panama in 2013, but he's also performed very well at every stop and has yet to really be challenged. In 2019, he finally reached full season ball and posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 89/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball from a projectable 6'3" frame, and he can get outs with his curve and his changeup because he commands them well. The overall package is pretty average, but he's passed every test the Marlins have given him, so it will be interesting to see how he potentially handles the upper minors in 2020, which will be his age-23 season. If it clicks, he could be a #4 starter.
- Evan Fitterer (2020 Age: 19-20): Despite turning 19 shortly after the 2019 draft, the Marlins took Fitterer in the fifth round out of his Southern California high school then signed him to an over slot $1.5 million deal. Fitterer then posted a 2.38 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, nothing that really changes his outlook. He's a balanced pitcher for his age, one who sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adds a pair of breaking balls that both look good at times, and a changeup that's pretty advanced for a high school pitcher. He usually commands all four pitches pretty well, and with a projectable 6'3" frame, he has all the building blocks in place for the Marlins to work with. Going forward, he'll just need to get more consistent with everything and continue to learn himself as a pitcher. High ceiling, low floor, and a lot of time to figure it out.
- Keep an eye on: Robert Dugger, Cody Poteet, Daniel Castano, Will Stewart, Delvis Alegre
Relief Pitching
- Jorge Guzman (2020 Age: 24): The Dominican flamethrower has already been traded twice, once from Houston to New York in the Brian McCann deal of 2016 and then, more notably, as the prospect with the highest upside in the Giancarlo Stanton trade a year later. In 2019, Guzman posted a 3.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 127/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 138.2 innings at AA Jacksonville, which was just enough to remain in the rotation for now but not enough to add any more confidence that he won't eventually end up in the bullpen. With multiple starting pitching prospects taking a big step forward at High A in 2019 and the acquisition of Sterling Sharp, Guzman will probably end up the odd man out when looking for a rotation spot, but he could be a real force in the bullpen. He sits consistently in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, and his short arm action makes it really difficult to pick the ball up out of his hand. His slider stands out more for its mid to upper 80's velocity than for its movement, and his changeup has some nice fade, but his inability to throw strikes has kept him from putting it all together as a starter. Set to play in his age-24 season, the command probably won't ever get close to average, so at this point he's probably best off running his fastball up to 100 in the bullpen while missing bats with that hard slider. He could be up in 2020 if the Marlins go that route.
- Jordan Holloway (2020 Age: 23-24): A 20th round draft pick out of a Denver-area high school in 2014, Holloway probably finds himself in about the same spot as Guzman after posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 93/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings at High A Jupiter. While he's still a starter, many of his teammates took steps forward that he couldn't match, and his two plus pitches likely fit better in a relief role at this point. Like Guzman, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, though his breaking ball of choice is a curveball with really nice two-plane movement. Though he has a relatively easy delivery with a quick arm like Guzman's, he also struggles to throw strikes, and that has made his stuff play down. As a fastball/curveball reliever, he could work his way up and become a 7th or 8th inning guy.
- Sean Guenther (2020 Age: 24): The Marlins picked up Guenther as a strike throwing seventh rounder out of Notre Dame in 2017, but his average stuff wasn't quite enough to cut it as a starter in pro ball, so the organization bumped him to the bullpen in 2019 and the early returns are great. Often used for multiple innings at a time, the 5'11" lefty posted a 2.02 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.1 innings at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter, using a high overhand delivery to get some added deception on his pitches. His fastball has bumped up into the low 90's, and while he used two breaking balls as a starter, I was unable to find if he's focused on one as a reliever but I'd have to guess he has. His plus command makes everything play up, and he could work his way up as a middle reliever.
- Keep an eye on: Tommy Eveld, Colton Hock, Jeff Lindgren
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Sunday, December 29, 2019
2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Kansas City Royals
It was a really, really interesting year for the Royals system, and I mean that in both a good way and a bad way, but mostly a good way. First off, four different affiliates won their league championships in the Dominican Summer League (complex), the Pioneer League (rookie), the South Atlantic League (Class A), and the Carolina League (High A), so that's great for them. Second off, they had five of the first 58 picks in the 2018 draft, spent all five on pitchers, and all five broke out for exceptional seasons as Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar reached AA and Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jonathan Bowlan reached High A, and fifth rounder Austin Cox and sixth rounder Zach Haake even got in on the fun with highly successful seasons of their own. Just the top of that 2018 draft alone leaves this system in a much better spot than it was a year ago and certainly two years ago, as they now have a legitimate handful of impact starting pitching options.
On the flip side, the hitters had a really weird year. Save for Brewer Hicklen, it seems like hitting prospect who touched High A Wilmington just absolutely sucked. I don't think Nick Pratto (.191/.278/.310), MJ Melendez (.163/.260/.311), and Seuly Matias (.148/.259/.307) could have possibly hit any worse, and the injury-slowed Kyle Isbel (.216/.282/.361) and Michael Gigliotti (.184/.268/.230) didn't fair much better in their brief time there while Marten Gasparini (.122/.140/.163) retired 16 games in. I mean, I have no idea what happened down there, but what an absolute disaster. Wilmington struggles aside, when it comes to position players, the strength of this system is definitely speed, as Nick Heath and Khalil Lee finished first and second in the minors with 60 and 53 stolen bases, respectively, while Hicklen added 39 and Gigliotti tacked on 36.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars and Burlington Royals, complex level AZL and DSL Royals
Catcher
- Nick Dini (2020 Age: 26-27): Dini was a 14th round pick out of Wagner College back in 2015, and he's hit everywhere he's gone even if he was really only there for his defense. In 2019, he slashed .296/.370/.565 with 13 home runs and a 29/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games at AAA Omaha, then hit .196/.270/.357 with two home runs in a 20 game call-up to the majors. That major league line probably accurately represents his talent level, as he can make consistent contact but overall doesn't hit for much impact. The Royals are probably pretty set behind the plate with Perez, Meibrys Viloria, and Cam Gallagher, but if somebody gets hurt, Dini should get the call considering the Royals don't have much else going on in terms of upper minors catching.
- MJ Melendez (2020 Age: 21): Melendez was the Royals' second round pick out of a South Florida high school in 2017, then after he improved his stock by slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs in his first full season in 2018, he slumped hard in 2019 and hit just .163/.260/.311 with nine home runs and a 165/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Wilmington. Wilmington's pitcher-friendly confines completely swallowed up his power (.133/.248/.243 at home), but he still hit just .189/.271/.374 on the road as Carolina League pitchers continuously exploited the holes in his left handed swing. Melendez draws his fair share of walks and creates good power from his whippy swing, giving him the offensive tools needed for the majors, but he just hasn't figured out higher level pitching yet and will need significant work with his approach. He's turned himself into an excellent defender, so there's just about as little pressure on the bat as their could be and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, he still factors in as the Royals' potential heir to Salvador Perez.
- Keep an eye on: Freddy Fermin, Omar Hernandez, Guillermo Quintana
Corner Infield
- Kelvin Gutierrez (2020 Age: 25): The Royals acquired Gutierrez from the Nationals in the Kelvin Herrera trade in 2018, primarily for his glove. In 2019, he slashed .287/.367/.427 with nine home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at AAA Omaha, mixing in some big league playing time and slashing .260/.304/.356 with one home run in 20 games for the Royals. As with Nick Dini, that big league slash line is about an accurate portrayal of his bat, as he can make consistent hard contact but doesn't get the ball off the ground enough to tap into the power in his 6'3" frame. Joining the fly ball revolution could be beneficial for him, but the real value is in his glove, as he's a plus defender at third base. If he can indeed add power by lifting the ball more, the Royals aren't too deep at the corners at the major league level and he could crack the starting lineup at some point in 2020.
- Emmanuel Rivera (2020 Age: 23-24): Rivera is a pretty similar player to Gutierrez, just a year or so behind. In 2019, he slashed .258/.297/.345 with seven home runs and a 77/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Northwest Arkansas, continuing the trend of his bat losing impact as he's faced better and better pitching up the minor league rungs. He has a bit less raw pop than Gutierrez, and while he's gotten better about about getting off the ground with his launch angle, it hasn't really helped him tap it and he probably doesn't profile for more than ten or so home runs annually at the major league level. He's an aggressive hitter but that doesn't hamper his contact ability, as he makes consistent contact and is tough to strike out. With his good defense at third base, he has a good chance to work his way onto the roster as a bench bat, but he's unlikely to profile as more.
- Nick Pratto (2020 Age: 21): Pratto was drafted in the middle of the first round out of a Southern California high school in 2017, and he and second rounder MJ Melendez have pretty much followed each other step for step. Like Melendez, Pratto hit well at Class A in his first full season (.280/.343/.443, 14 HR), then like Melendez, he slumped hard in High A in 2019. While Melendez hit .163/.260/.311, Pratto was just a hair better at .191/.278/.310 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 164/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games for Wilmington. Fortunately, he did pick it up a bit by slashing .218/.295/.401 in the second half, still not what you want to see but at least better. Pratto was drafted on the basis of his advanced hitting ability, but the strike zone management has not been nearly as good as advertised in pro ball and while that didn't hurt him too much in Class A, it really caught up to him in High A. When drafted, he looked like a 15-25 homer bat who could post high on-base percentages, and he'll need to do significant work to get close to that. Like Melendez, he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old, but there is more pressure on his bat given that he plays first base. On the bright side, he's a very good defender there, so he still provides positive value in the field despite playing a less important position.
- Keep an eye on: Humberto Arteaga, D.J. Burt, Vinnie Pasquantino
Middle Infield
- Gabriel Cancel (2020 Age: 23): Cancel has moved slowly through the minors, one level at a time, and he slashed .246/.308/.427 with 18 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Northwest Arkansas. He has an explosive right handed swing that's enabled him to hit for solid average power in the minors, and he's also put up three straight seasons with at least 30 doubles. However, the one thing holding him back offensively is his strike zone judgement, as he hasn't been able to make consistent enough to really drive the ball out of the park as often as he'd like. With fringy defense that will probably land him at second or third base, he has to tap that power, but it's also the only thing holding him back from being a very useful bench bat at the major league level. The Royals are not very deep, so he does have a good chance to hit his way onto the team in 2020.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (2020 Age: 19-20): Witt was the consensus best high school prospect available in the 2019 draft, and the Royals picked him second overall out of his Dallas-Fort Worth-area high school and signed him for almost $7.8 million. His pro debut was unremarkable, as he slashed .262/.317/.354 with a home run, nine stolen bases, and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in the complex level Arizona League, but there is no denying his talent. He generates a ton of power from the right side with an all-out swing, and while that led to some swing and miss earlier in his high school career, he improved in that regard in his senior season and should have no issues tapping his power in pro ball. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and should only get better, giving him the chance to be an impact player on both sides of the ball with a ceiling of 25-30 home runs and good on-base percentages. Of course, like any high school prospect, he has a lot of work to do to get there, and there's always the risk that the hit tool doesn't play up. With an athlete like Witt, though, you'd be smart to bet on the ceiling and not on the floor.
- Brady McConnell (2020 Age: 21-22): McConnell was a potential day one pick coming out of a Florida high school in 2017, but he instead opted to attend Florida then barely played as a true freshman in 2018 behind eventual Dodgers tenth round pick Deacon Liput. He then broke out in a huge way as a draft eligible sophomore in 2019, riding that to a second round selection by the Royals and slashing .213/.288/.400 with five home runs and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games between the complex level Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls (though all but two games were at the higher level). Those numbers from his debut were about what was expected given his profile. He finds the barrel very easily and produces good power from the right side, but he's also a very aggressive hitter that loves to take healthy, aggressive hacks at the plate. That helps him make a lot of hard contact from the right side, but it also leads to a fair amount of swing and miss and not a lot of walks. It's kind of a boom/bust profile, as he could produce 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if it works out, but he also has more bust risk than the typical college draftee in the second round. He probably won't stick at shortstop, especially with Bobby Witt in the same draft class, so but he could be a solid second or third baseman.
- Michael Massey (2020 Age: 22): Massey was the Royals' fourth round pick out of Illinois in 2019, and while he lacks the ceiling of the Royals' earlier picks in that draft, he also has a higher floor. He was exceptionally steady over three years in Urbana-Champaign, then hit .272/.339/.399 with five home runs and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Burlington in his pro debut in 2019. Despite popping for five home runs and seven doubles in the Appalachian League this year, Massey is more of a contact hitter who relies on great bat to ball skills and strike zone management rather than trying to smoke the ball. He's also a grinder who plays the game hard, and that should make him a competent defender at shortstop and a good one at second base, adding to his profile as a future utility infielder. There's little question he'll be able to handle higher level pitching, so really the only thing between him and that utility future is proving he can continue to hit for some impact against that higher level pitching.
- Keep an eye on: Erick Mejia, Kevin Merrell, Clay Dungan, Herard Gonzalez, Wilmin Candelario
Outfield
- Khalil Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): Lee was a talented two-way player out of a Northern Virginia high school in 2016, but the Royals picked him up in the third round on the basis of his upside at the plate and so far, it looks like they've been right to do so. In 2019, he slashed .264/.363/.372 with eight home runs, 53 stolen bases, and a 154/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA Northwest Arkansas, numbers which become more impressive when you consider he only turned 21 halfway through the season. Despite standing just 5'10", he stands out for his physical tools, generating a lot of power from an explosive left handed swing, then deploying his speed well both on the bases and in center field. In fact, his 53 stolen bases in 2019 were enough to finish second in all of Minor League Baseball behind, ironically enough, his teammate Nick Heath. Plus, as you'd imagine for a kid who was almost drafted as a pitcher, he has one of the better arms in the organization. Contact has been a bit of an issue, but he's been young for the levels he's played at and the swing and miss hasn't been completely out of control, so I wouldn't be overly worried and I'd focus more on the fact that he was able to walk in 11.9% of his plate appearances in AA this year. Lee obviously still has work to do to get over the hump of upper-level pitching, but he won't turn 22 until June and he's already well on his way to doing so. Eventually, he could hit up to 20-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, some stolen bases, and good defense, giving him one of the higher ceilings in the organization and a good shot to get there.
- Nick Heath (2020 Age: 26): There aren't many Kansas natives in the majors, with perhaps the most notable being Blake Treinen of Osage City, but Nick Heath of Junction City brings the Royals one of their own. Drafted in the 16th round as a senior sign out of Louisiana's Northwestern State in 2016, Heath has ran his way, quite literally, up the Royals' minor league rungs. In 2019, he slashed .255/.345/.387 with eight home runs and a 143/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha, and his 60 stolen bases meant he led all of the minors, even his teammate Khalil Lee. While his eight home runs were by far a career high after he began to lift the ball just a bit more, Heath isn't a power hitter and profiles more like Willie Mays Hayes from the movie Major League. He (obviously) has exceptional speed, and his quick swing from the left side helps him spray line drives around and get the most out of that speed, both on the bases and in the outfield. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder in the Jarrod Dyson mold, though he is a bit bigger and might hit for a touch more power.
- Brewer Hicklen (2020 Age: 24): A seventh round pick out of Alabama-Birmingham in 2017, Hicklen has hit everywhere he's gone, and in 2019 he slashed .263/.363/.427 with 14 home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 140/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at High A Wilmington, a notorious pitchers' park. He's got some pop in his right handed swing, deriving from his strong 6'2" frame, and he's one of the best runners in a system that has quite a few of them, having stolen 35 and 39 bases over the last two seasons. He does have some swing and miss concerns, and combined with good-not-great power and decent outfield defense, that probably relegates him to more of a fourth outfielder role, but his ability to make things happen on the baseball field makes him a relatively exciting prospect. As a fun fact, only five of his 14 home runs came at home, but all five of those came in one exceptional August series against the Salem Red Sox in which he went 9-13 with five homers, a double, seven RBI, a pair of walks, and nine runs scored in four games – Hicklen hit just .199/.326/.271 in all other home games.
- Kyle Isbel (2020 Age: 23): Isbel is a perfect case study for just how annoying lingering wrist issues can be. After being drafted in the third round out of UNLV in 2018, he slashed .326/.389/.504 in his pro debut, then was slashing .348/.423/.630 with a pair of home runs and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games at High A Wilmington in 2019 before going down with a wrist injury. When he returned, he was far from the same player, hitting just .176/.236/.277 with three home runs and a 36/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games for Wilmington the rest of the way. When healthy, Isbel stands out for his ability to simply hit the ball hard to all fields as well as anyone in the system. That gives him close to average power, and he seems like the kind of guy who could benefit from the juiced balls at AAA and the major league level and hit 15-20 a year up there. The bulk of his value, though, will come from the ability to drive lots of balls into the gaps and let his good speed do the rest.
- Michael Gigliotti (2020 Age: 24): Gigliotti, a fourth round pick out of Lipscomb University in 2017, has always been talented but has struggled to stay on the field. He slashed .320/.420/.456 in his pro debut but an ACL tear ended his 2018 season six games in, then missed a month of games in 2019 with undisclosed injuries. Still, when he was on the field in 2019, he slashed .282/.369/.368 with one home run, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games at Class A Lexington, High A Wilmington, and complex level rehab, and it seems like all he really needs is just consistent time on the field. He has wiry strength in his 6'1" frame, but to this point that hasn't manifested into any power in pro ball, which is fine because he makes a lot of hard line drive contact and manages the strike zone well for someone who keeps getting interrupted by injuries. His legs also showed no signs of injury lag after that ACL tear, as he stole 36 bases in just 87 games, and he covers a lot of ground in center field. He turns 24 at the start of the season and has yet to get any consistent playing time above Class A, so he's well behind in his development, but I still think a healthy Gigliotti could do some special things on the field.
- Erick Pena (2020 Age: 17): Pena hasn't played professionally yet, but after getting $4 million to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, he immediately becomes one of the top outfield prospects in the system. Pena has a ton of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame, and his explosive left handed swing helps him generate a lot of power for a 16 year old kid, which he has gotten to consistently as an amateur. There's a lot going on in that swing, so the Royals will probably need to quiet down his hands a bit to help him catch up to pro pitching, but with his solid plate discipline and feel for the barrel, making those adjustments shouldn't be too much of an issue. He has a tremendous ceiling, but of course as a kid born in 2003, he also comes with a very low floor, so we'll just have to wait and see.
- Keep an eye on: Blake Perkins, Seuly Matias, John Rave, Darryl Collins
Starting Pitching
- Brady Singer (2020 Age: 23-24): Singer had a shot to go first overall out of Florida in 2018, but a combination of a slightly bumpy junior season and high bonus demands dropped him to 18th overall, where the Royals were ecstatic to land him. He was held out of action after a long college season, then skipped completely over rookie ball and Class A for his pro debut and first full season in 2019. Between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Singer had no problems with the jump in competition and posted a 2.85 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 138/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings. Standing 6'5", he's your prototypical pitching prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball, a short but sharp slider that misses lots of bats, and a decent changeup, all of which he commands pretty well most of the time. Singer isn't the most consistent pitcher, as he can loose feel for his stuff and his command can waver at times, but he's usually on top of his game and when he is, he looks like an ace. The Royals will hope a bit more pro refinement will help him stay there, and he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter if he gets more consistent.
- Jackson Kowar (2020 Age: 23): Kowar was Singer's rotation-mate at Florida, and since being a compensation pick in 2018, he was Singer's rotation-mate at both High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas. In 2019, he had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 144/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between the two levels, showing more consistency but a bit less ceiling. Like Singer, Kowar stands 6'5" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but while Singer's slider is his main weapon, Kowar gets outs with his downer changeup. He also adds a curveball that looked a bit soft in college, but he's added power while maintaining its shape in pro ball and it now projects as an average or slightly better pitch. With decent but consistent command, he projects favorably as a #3 starter in the near future.
- Daniel Lynch (2020 Age: 23): One pick after Kowar, the Royals grabbed UVA lefty Daniel Lynch, who took off in his junior season when he finally figured out who he was as a pitcher. That success has carried over into pro ball, and in 2019 he had a 2.99 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, rookie level Burlington, and High A Wilmington, where he spent most of his time. He's a bit different from Singer and Kowar not only because he's left handed and didn't go to Florida, but because he finds success more by mixing pitches than by having one true out pitch. Like Singer and Kowar, he's tall at 6'6", and he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, then he adds three solid offspeeds in a slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which can flash above average or plus at times. He also throws strikes with all of his offerings and mixes his pitches very well, and that high baseball IQ should help him tackle higher level hitters and perhaps major leaguers in 2020. Like Kowar, he projects as a mid-rotation starter.
- Kris Bubic (2020 Age: 22): Six picks after taking Lynch, the Royals dipped into the college starter pool yet again and grabbed Bubic out of Stanford in the competitive balance round. He's a 6'3" lefty that's more about deception than anything else, and in 2019 he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 185/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington, the 185 strikeouts leading all of Minor League Baseball. He only sits in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball that he's improved the consistency of, but the reason he racked up so many strikeouts was his excellent fading changeup that rivals Kowar's for the best in the system. He's usually pretty good about throwing strikes, and he makes his pitches play up with a funky delivery that has a lot of moving parts and makes it hard to pick up the baseball. He doesn't have the highest ceiling in the system, but his successful 2019 means he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or a #4 starter.
- Jonathan Bowlan (2020 Age: 23): Yep, another arm from the 2018 draft. After selecting Singer 18th overall, Kowar 33rd, Lynch 34th, and Bubic 40th, they hopped on Memphis righty Jonathan Bowlan in the second round, 58th overall, and he's yet another arm that exceeded expectations in 2019. This year, he had a 3.14 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 150/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington as both his slider and his strike throwing ability took a step forward. He's a really big guy at a listed 6'6" and 260 pounds, and that helps him get good angle on his pitches, most notably a low to mid 90's fastball and a good slider. He still needs to work on his changeup, but with the ability to throw consistent strikes, he's pretty close to a complete pitcher and is well on his way to being a #4 starter with the potential to be more.
- Austin Cox (2020 Age: 23): The Royals finally took a break after Bowlan, selecting college position players Kyle Isbel and Eric Cole with their next two picks, but they returned to the mound in the fifth round in 2018 and took Austin Cox out of Mercer. Like the five pitchers before him, he too had a successful first full season, posting a 2.76 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 129/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. Here, the difference was the command, as he struggled to repeat his delivery and find the strike zone consistently at Mercer, but the Royals smoothed him out and it did wonders for his command. That helps his four pitch arsenal, led by a low 90's fastball and a hard biting curveball, play up, which was a complete shift from how it played down in college. He's still probably a bit behind the other guys in terms of his overall projection, but the fifth round lefty has given himself a favorable outlook as a #4 or a #5 starter with more possible.
- Alec Marsh (2020 Age: 21-22): Unlike 2018, the Royals began their 2019 draft with back to back shortstops, but they spent their competitive balance pick on Arizona State starter Alec Marsh. Marsh went and had a very successful debut in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League, posting a 4.05 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 38/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings at rookie level Idaho Falls. He stands out more for his total package than for any one flashy attribute, as he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds two nice breaking balls and a changeup. His command was pretty good in college but he really locked down the strike zone in his pro debut in 2019, and if he can maintain that sharp command, he should be able to work his way up as a #4 starter. Given the success of the Royals' 2018 draft picks, I wouldn't be surprised if he broke out and ended up as a mid-rotation guy.
- Grant Gambrell (2020 Age: 22): I wasn't a big fan of the Royals taking Gambrell in the third round out of Oregon State in 2019, and his 6.67 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 28/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at rookie level Idaho Falls in his pro debut don't help, but I wouldn't bet against any college pitchers in this system. Gambrell flashes great stuff, but he hasn't been even remotely consistent, so he'll be a project for the Royals. At his best, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider with good hard break, and a solid changeup, but he tends to lose feel for his pitches and his command comes and goes. He's got the ceiling to match most other arms in this system, but I'll be really interesting to see how if the Royals can get him to where he needs to be.
- Noah Murdock (2020 Age: 21): The Royals knew they were getting a project when they drafted Murdock in the seventh round out of UVA in 2019, as he posted a 6.30 ERA as a junior because his mechanics had a tendency of falling apart. The Royals were able to iron out similar issues for Austin Cox, and so far, it's looking up for Murdock as he posted a 2.17 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings for rookie level Burlington. He's a string bean at 6'8", but when he keeps his mechanics in line, he can get really good angle on his low 90's fastball and his inconsistent breaking ball, and that makes both pitches play up. Murdock has an extremely high ceiling for an seventh round college pick, but he's in the right system and could be well on his way a year from now so long as he stays healthy.
- Yohanse Morel (2020 Age: 19): The Royals have a few enigmatic young pitchers down in Class A in Carlos Hernandez, Evan Steele, Yefri Del Rosario, and Yohanse Morel, but as the youngest of the group, Morel will earn the writeup. Acquired from the Nationals in the Kelvin Herrera trade in 2018 just one game into his pro career, the Royals skipped Morel up to Class A Lexington in 2019 and he had a 6.02 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 57/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but for an 18 year old with just 47 innings of pro experience coming into the season, it wasn't half bad. He has an easy delivery and an extremely quick arm that helps him hurl low to mid 90's fastballs, solid sliders, and often plus, fading changeups. He's still learning to reign all that in, as he can lose his arm slot and therefore the zone, and he also needs to learn to sequence his pitches better, but the stuff is there for him to be an impact starting pitcher down the road. He's young enough that he should have plenty of time to learn himself as a pitcher, and his upside is tremendous.
- Keep an eye on: Rito Lugo, Daniel Tillo, Carlos Hernandez, Evan Steele, Charlie Neuweiler, Yefri Del Rosario
Relief Pitching
- Josh Staumont (2020 Age: 26): It feels like prospect evaluators have been writing about Staumont's electric arm for all of eternity, though in reality he was drafted out of Azusa Pacific in the second round in 2015. He somehow managed to walk 201 batters in 248 innings between 2016 and 2017, so the Royals finally bumped him to the bullpen in 2018 and the results have been decent. In 2019, Staumont had a 3.16 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 74/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at AAA Omaha, then posted a 3.72 ERA and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 major league innings. His fastball easily sits in the upper 90's and his hammer curveball can be equally devastating, and while he's improved his command over the last couple of seasons, he still struggles to locate those pitches where he wants them. The stuff is so good that he doesn't even need average command to succeed as a major league reliever, but he does need to at least get the ball in the general area of where the catcher is setting up or else he won't last very long. In 2020, I guess we'll see.
- Zach Haake (2020 Age: 23): Drafted in the sixth round in 2018 out of Kentucky, Haake had a good first full season like all of his counterparts in that draft, but it wasn't quite as good and combined with his profile, it probably makes him a reliever long term. Haake struggled mightily for the Wildcats in 2018 to the tune of an 8.47 ERA, but he turned it around really nicely in pro ball with a 1.76 ERA in his pro debut then in 2019 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 94/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, mostly at Class A Lexington. Haake has great stuff, highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a very inconsistent slider that can look great at times, and a changeup that has come along nicely in pro ball, though command and overall inconsistency have held him back. The Royals ironed him out and got him at least throwing strikes in the South Atlantic League, though there's still work to do there with the overall command and his secondary pitches are still very inconsistent. Given the depth of starting pitching talent in this system, he's probably a reliever long term, but the Royals will give him more opportunities to start and break through.
- Drew Parrish (2020 Age: 22): Parrish was an eighth rounder out of Florida State in 2019, and though he followed a dominant sophomore season with an up and down junior year in Tallahassee, he turned it around nicely in his pro debut with a 2.52 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at rookie level Burlington. Parrish stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, adding a great tumbling changeup and a decent breaking ball. The lefty commands everything very well, but the stuff is probably just a bit light to start unless he takes a step forward with his velocity. Kris Bubic did have a similar profile coming out of Stanford a year prior, if with marginally better stuff and marginally less command, and he's pitched extremely well in this system, so there's certainly hope for Parrish as a starter. Still, I think his most likely destination is the bullpen, where he could really pitch off his changeup and perhaps add a tick of velocity to get up into the low 90's.
- Keep an eye on: Conner Greene, Tyler Zuber, Josh Dye, Austin Lambright, Dante Biasi
On the flip side, the hitters had a really weird year. Save for Brewer Hicklen, it seems like hitting prospect who touched High A Wilmington just absolutely sucked. I don't think Nick Pratto (.191/.278/.310), MJ Melendez (.163/.260/.311), and Seuly Matias (.148/.259/.307) could have possibly hit any worse, and the injury-slowed Kyle Isbel (.216/.282/.361) and Michael Gigliotti (.184/.268/.230) didn't fair much better in their brief time there while Marten Gasparini (.122/.140/.163) retired 16 games in. I mean, I have no idea what happened down there, but what an absolute disaster. Wilmington struggles aside, when it comes to position players, the strength of this system is definitely speed, as Nick Heath and Khalil Lee finished first and second in the minors with 60 and 53 stolen bases, respectively, while Hicklen added 39 and Gigliotti tacked on 36.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars and Burlington Royals, complex level AZL and DSL Royals
Catcher
- Nick Dini (2020 Age: 26-27): Dini was a 14th round pick out of Wagner College back in 2015, and he's hit everywhere he's gone even if he was really only there for his defense. In 2019, he slashed .296/.370/.565 with 13 home runs and a 29/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games at AAA Omaha, then hit .196/.270/.357 with two home runs in a 20 game call-up to the majors. That major league line probably accurately represents his talent level, as he can make consistent contact but overall doesn't hit for much impact. The Royals are probably pretty set behind the plate with Perez, Meibrys Viloria, and Cam Gallagher, but if somebody gets hurt, Dini should get the call considering the Royals don't have much else going on in terms of upper minors catching.
- MJ Melendez (2020 Age: 21): Melendez was the Royals' second round pick out of a South Florida high school in 2017, then after he improved his stock by slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs in his first full season in 2018, he slumped hard in 2019 and hit just .163/.260/.311 with nine home runs and a 165/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Wilmington. Wilmington's pitcher-friendly confines completely swallowed up his power (.133/.248/.243 at home), but he still hit just .189/.271/.374 on the road as Carolina League pitchers continuously exploited the holes in his left handed swing. Melendez draws his fair share of walks and creates good power from his whippy swing, giving him the offensive tools needed for the majors, but he just hasn't figured out higher level pitching yet and will need significant work with his approach. He's turned himself into an excellent defender, so there's just about as little pressure on the bat as their could be and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, he still factors in as the Royals' potential heir to Salvador Perez.
- Keep an eye on: Freddy Fermin, Omar Hernandez, Guillermo Quintana
Corner Infield
- Kelvin Gutierrez (2020 Age: 25): The Royals acquired Gutierrez from the Nationals in the Kelvin Herrera trade in 2018, primarily for his glove. In 2019, he slashed .287/.367/.427 with nine home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at AAA Omaha, mixing in some big league playing time and slashing .260/.304/.356 with one home run in 20 games for the Royals. As with Nick Dini, that big league slash line is about an accurate portrayal of his bat, as he can make consistent hard contact but doesn't get the ball off the ground enough to tap into the power in his 6'3" frame. Joining the fly ball revolution could be beneficial for him, but the real value is in his glove, as he's a plus defender at third base. If he can indeed add power by lifting the ball more, the Royals aren't too deep at the corners at the major league level and he could crack the starting lineup at some point in 2020.
- Emmanuel Rivera (2020 Age: 23-24): Rivera is a pretty similar player to Gutierrez, just a year or so behind. In 2019, he slashed .258/.297/.345 with seven home runs and a 77/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Northwest Arkansas, continuing the trend of his bat losing impact as he's faced better and better pitching up the minor league rungs. He has a bit less raw pop than Gutierrez, and while he's gotten better about about getting off the ground with his launch angle, it hasn't really helped him tap it and he probably doesn't profile for more than ten or so home runs annually at the major league level. He's an aggressive hitter but that doesn't hamper his contact ability, as he makes consistent contact and is tough to strike out. With his good defense at third base, he has a good chance to work his way onto the roster as a bench bat, but he's unlikely to profile as more.
- Nick Pratto (2020 Age: 21): Pratto was drafted in the middle of the first round out of a Southern California high school in 2017, and he and second rounder MJ Melendez have pretty much followed each other step for step. Like Melendez, Pratto hit well at Class A in his first full season (.280/.343/.443, 14 HR), then like Melendez, he slumped hard in High A in 2019. While Melendez hit .163/.260/.311, Pratto was just a hair better at .191/.278/.310 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 164/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games for Wilmington. Fortunately, he did pick it up a bit by slashing .218/.295/.401 in the second half, still not what you want to see but at least better. Pratto was drafted on the basis of his advanced hitting ability, but the strike zone management has not been nearly as good as advertised in pro ball and while that didn't hurt him too much in Class A, it really caught up to him in High A. When drafted, he looked like a 15-25 homer bat who could post high on-base percentages, and he'll need to do significant work to get close to that. Like Melendez, he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old, but there is more pressure on his bat given that he plays first base. On the bright side, he's a very good defender there, so he still provides positive value in the field despite playing a less important position.
- Keep an eye on: Humberto Arteaga, D.J. Burt, Vinnie Pasquantino
Middle Infield
- Gabriel Cancel (2020 Age: 23): Cancel has moved slowly through the minors, one level at a time, and he slashed .246/.308/.427 with 18 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Northwest Arkansas. He has an explosive right handed swing that's enabled him to hit for solid average power in the minors, and he's also put up three straight seasons with at least 30 doubles. However, the one thing holding him back offensively is his strike zone judgement, as he hasn't been able to make consistent enough to really drive the ball out of the park as often as he'd like. With fringy defense that will probably land him at second or third base, he has to tap that power, but it's also the only thing holding him back from being a very useful bench bat at the major league level. The Royals are not very deep, so he does have a good chance to hit his way onto the team in 2020.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (2020 Age: 19-20): Witt was the consensus best high school prospect available in the 2019 draft, and the Royals picked him second overall out of his Dallas-Fort Worth-area high school and signed him for almost $7.8 million. His pro debut was unremarkable, as he slashed .262/.317/.354 with a home run, nine stolen bases, and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in the complex level Arizona League, but there is no denying his talent. He generates a ton of power from the right side with an all-out swing, and while that led to some swing and miss earlier in his high school career, he improved in that regard in his senior season and should have no issues tapping his power in pro ball. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and should only get better, giving him the chance to be an impact player on both sides of the ball with a ceiling of 25-30 home runs and good on-base percentages. Of course, like any high school prospect, he has a lot of work to do to get there, and there's always the risk that the hit tool doesn't play up. With an athlete like Witt, though, you'd be smart to bet on the ceiling and not on the floor.
- Brady McConnell (2020 Age: 21-22): McConnell was a potential day one pick coming out of a Florida high school in 2017, but he instead opted to attend Florida then barely played as a true freshman in 2018 behind eventual Dodgers tenth round pick Deacon Liput. He then broke out in a huge way as a draft eligible sophomore in 2019, riding that to a second round selection by the Royals and slashing .213/.288/.400 with five home runs and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games between the complex level Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls (though all but two games were at the higher level). Those numbers from his debut were about what was expected given his profile. He finds the barrel very easily and produces good power from the right side, but he's also a very aggressive hitter that loves to take healthy, aggressive hacks at the plate. That helps him make a lot of hard contact from the right side, but it also leads to a fair amount of swing and miss and not a lot of walks. It's kind of a boom/bust profile, as he could produce 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if it works out, but he also has more bust risk than the typical college draftee in the second round. He probably won't stick at shortstop, especially with Bobby Witt in the same draft class, so but he could be a solid second or third baseman.
- Michael Massey (2020 Age: 22): Massey was the Royals' fourth round pick out of Illinois in 2019, and while he lacks the ceiling of the Royals' earlier picks in that draft, he also has a higher floor. He was exceptionally steady over three years in Urbana-Champaign, then hit .272/.339/.399 with five home runs and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Burlington in his pro debut in 2019. Despite popping for five home runs and seven doubles in the Appalachian League this year, Massey is more of a contact hitter who relies on great bat to ball skills and strike zone management rather than trying to smoke the ball. He's also a grinder who plays the game hard, and that should make him a competent defender at shortstop and a good one at second base, adding to his profile as a future utility infielder. There's little question he'll be able to handle higher level pitching, so really the only thing between him and that utility future is proving he can continue to hit for some impact against that higher level pitching.
- Keep an eye on: Erick Mejia, Kevin Merrell, Clay Dungan, Herard Gonzalez, Wilmin Candelario
Outfield
- Khalil Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): Lee was a talented two-way player out of a Northern Virginia high school in 2016, but the Royals picked him up in the third round on the basis of his upside at the plate and so far, it looks like they've been right to do so. In 2019, he slashed .264/.363/.372 with eight home runs, 53 stolen bases, and a 154/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA Northwest Arkansas, numbers which become more impressive when you consider he only turned 21 halfway through the season. Despite standing just 5'10", he stands out for his physical tools, generating a lot of power from an explosive left handed swing, then deploying his speed well both on the bases and in center field. In fact, his 53 stolen bases in 2019 were enough to finish second in all of Minor League Baseball behind, ironically enough, his teammate Nick Heath. Plus, as you'd imagine for a kid who was almost drafted as a pitcher, he has one of the better arms in the organization. Contact has been a bit of an issue, but he's been young for the levels he's played at and the swing and miss hasn't been completely out of control, so I wouldn't be overly worried and I'd focus more on the fact that he was able to walk in 11.9% of his plate appearances in AA this year. Lee obviously still has work to do to get over the hump of upper-level pitching, but he won't turn 22 until June and he's already well on his way to doing so. Eventually, he could hit up to 20-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, some stolen bases, and good defense, giving him one of the higher ceilings in the organization and a good shot to get there.
- Nick Heath (2020 Age: 26): There aren't many Kansas natives in the majors, with perhaps the most notable being Blake Treinen of Osage City, but Nick Heath of Junction City brings the Royals one of their own. Drafted in the 16th round as a senior sign out of Louisiana's Northwestern State in 2016, Heath has ran his way, quite literally, up the Royals' minor league rungs. In 2019, he slashed .255/.345/.387 with eight home runs and a 143/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha, and his 60 stolen bases meant he led all of the minors, even his teammate Khalil Lee. While his eight home runs were by far a career high after he began to lift the ball just a bit more, Heath isn't a power hitter and profiles more like Willie Mays Hayes from the movie Major League. He (obviously) has exceptional speed, and his quick swing from the left side helps him spray line drives around and get the most out of that speed, both on the bases and in the outfield. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder in the Jarrod Dyson mold, though he is a bit bigger and might hit for a touch more power.
- Brewer Hicklen (2020 Age: 24): A seventh round pick out of Alabama-Birmingham in 2017, Hicklen has hit everywhere he's gone, and in 2019 he slashed .263/.363/.427 with 14 home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 140/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at High A Wilmington, a notorious pitchers' park. He's got some pop in his right handed swing, deriving from his strong 6'2" frame, and he's one of the best runners in a system that has quite a few of them, having stolen 35 and 39 bases over the last two seasons. He does have some swing and miss concerns, and combined with good-not-great power and decent outfield defense, that probably relegates him to more of a fourth outfielder role, but his ability to make things happen on the baseball field makes him a relatively exciting prospect. As a fun fact, only five of his 14 home runs came at home, but all five of those came in one exceptional August series against the Salem Red Sox in which he went 9-13 with five homers, a double, seven RBI, a pair of walks, and nine runs scored in four games – Hicklen hit just .199/.326/.271 in all other home games.
- Kyle Isbel (2020 Age: 23): Isbel is a perfect case study for just how annoying lingering wrist issues can be. After being drafted in the third round out of UNLV in 2018, he slashed .326/.389/.504 in his pro debut, then was slashing .348/.423/.630 with a pair of home runs and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games at High A Wilmington in 2019 before going down with a wrist injury. When he returned, he was far from the same player, hitting just .176/.236/.277 with three home runs and a 36/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games for Wilmington the rest of the way. When healthy, Isbel stands out for his ability to simply hit the ball hard to all fields as well as anyone in the system. That gives him close to average power, and he seems like the kind of guy who could benefit from the juiced balls at AAA and the major league level and hit 15-20 a year up there. The bulk of his value, though, will come from the ability to drive lots of balls into the gaps and let his good speed do the rest.
- Michael Gigliotti (2020 Age: 24): Gigliotti, a fourth round pick out of Lipscomb University in 2017, has always been talented but has struggled to stay on the field. He slashed .320/.420/.456 in his pro debut but an ACL tear ended his 2018 season six games in, then missed a month of games in 2019 with undisclosed injuries. Still, when he was on the field in 2019, he slashed .282/.369/.368 with one home run, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games at Class A Lexington, High A Wilmington, and complex level rehab, and it seems like all he really needs is just consistent time on the field. He has wiry strength in his 6'1" frame, but to this point that hasn't manifested into any power in pro ball, which is fine because he makes a lot of hard line drive contact and manages the strike zone well for someone who keeps getting interrupted by injuries. His legs also showed no signs of injury lag after that ACL tear, as he stole 36 bases in just 87 games, and he covers a lot of ground in center field. He turns 24 at the start of the season and has yet to get any consistent playing time above Class A, so he's well behind in his development, but I still think a healthy Gigliotti could do some special things on the field.
- Erick Pena (2020 Age: 17): Pena hasn't played professionally yet, but after getting $4 million to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, he immediately becomes one of the top outfield prospects in the system. Pena has a ton of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame, and his explosive left handed swing helps him generate a lot of power for a 16 year old kid, which he has gotten to consistently as an amateur. There's a lot going on in that swing, so the Royals will probably need to quiet down his hands a bit to help him catch up to pro pitching, but with his solid plate discipline and feel for the barrel, making those adjustments shouldn't be too much of an issue. He has a tremendous ceiling, but of course as a kid born in 2003, he also comes with a very low floor, so we'll just have to wait and see.
- Keep an eye on: Blake Perkins, Seuly Matias, John Rave, Darryl Collins
Starting Pitching
- Brady Singer (2020 Age: 23-24): Singer had a shot to go first overall out of Florida in 2018, but a combination of a slightly bumpy junior season and high bonus demands dropped him to 18th overall, where the Royals were ecstatic to land him. He was held out of action after a long college season, then skipped completely over rookie ball and Class A for his pro debut and first full season in 2019. Between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Singer had no problems with the jump in competition and posted a 2.85 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 138/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings. Standing 6'5", he's your prototypical pitching prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball, a short but sharp slider that misses lots of bats, and a decent changeup, all of which he commands pretty well most of the time. Singer isn't the most consistent pitcher, as he can loose feel for his stuff and his command can waver at times, but he's usually on top of his game and when he is, he looks like an ace. The Royals will hope a bit more pro refinement will help him stay there, and he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter if he gets more consistent.
- Jackson Kowar (2020 Age: 23): Kowar was Singer's rotation-mate at Florida, and since being a compensation pick in 2018, he was Singer's rotation-mate at both High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas. In 2019, he had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 144/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between the two levels, showing more consistency but a bit less ceiling. Like Singer, Kowar stands 6'5" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but while Singer's slider is his main weapon, Kowar gets outs with his downer changeup. He also adds a curveball that looked a bit soft in college, but he's added power while maintaining its shape in pro ball and it now projects as an average or slightly better pitch. With decent but consistent command, he projects favorably as a #3 starter in the near future.
- Daniel Lynch (2020 Age: 23): One pick after Kowar, the Royals grabbed UVA lefty Daniel Lynch, who took off in his junior season when he finally figured out who he was as a pitcher. That success has carried over into pro ball, and in 2019 he had a 2.99 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, rookie level Burlington, and High A Wilmington, where he spent most of his time. He's a bit different from Singer and Kowar not only because he's left handed and didn't go to Florida, but because he finds success more by mixing pitches than by having one true out pitch. Like Singer and Kowar, he's tall at 6'6", and he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, then he adds three solid offspeeds in a slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which can flash above average or plus at times. He also throws strikes with all of his offerings and mixes his pitches very well, and that high baseball IQ should help him tackle higher level hitters and perhaps major leaguers in 2020. Like Kowar, he projects as a mid-rotation starter.
- Kris Bubic (2020 Age: 22): Six picks after taking Lynch, the Royals dipped into the college starter pool yet again and grabbed Bubic out of Stanford in the competitive balance round. He's a 6'3" lefty that's more about deception than anything else, and in 2019 he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 185/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington, the 185 strikeouts leading all of Minor League Baseball. He only sits in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball that he's improved the consistency of, but the reason he racked up so many strikeouts was his excellent fading changeup that rivals Kowar's for the best in the system. He's usually pretty good about throwing strikes, and he makes his pitches play up with a funky delivery that has a lot of moving parts and makes it hard to pick up the baseball. He doesn't have the highest ceiling in the system, but his successful 2019 means he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or a #4 starter.
- Jonathan Bowlan (2020 Age: 23): Yep, another arm from the 2018 draft. After selecting Singer 18th overall, Kowar 33rd, Lynch 34th, and Bubic 40th, they hopped on Memphis righty Jonathan Bowlan in the second round, 58th overall, and he's yet another arm that exceeded expectations in 2019. This year, he had a 3.14 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 150/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington as both his slider and his strike throwing ability took a step forward. He's a really big guy at a listed 6'6" and 260 pounds, and that helps him get good angle on his pitches, most notably a low to mid 90's fastball and a good slider. He still needs to work on his changeup, but with the ability to throw consistent strikes, he's pretty close to a complete pitcher and is well on his way to being a #4 starter with the potential to be more.
- Austin Cox (2020 Age: 23): The Royals finally took a break after Bowlan, selecting college position players Kyle Isbel and Eric Cole with their next two picks, but they returned to the mound in the fifth round in 2018 and took Austin Cox out of Mercer. Like the five pitchers before him, he too had a successful first full season, posting a 2.76 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 129/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. Here, the difference was the command, as he struggled to repeat his delivery and find the strike zone consistently at Mercer, but the Royals smoothed him out and it did wonders for his command. That helps his four pitch arsenal, led by a low 90's fastball and a hard biting curveball, play up, which was a complete shift from how it played down in college. He's still probably a bit behind the other guys in terms of his overall projection, but the fifth round lefty has given himself a favorable outlook as a #4 or a #5 starter with more possible.
- Alec Marsh (2020 Age: 21-22): Unlike 2018, the Royals began their 2019 draft with back to back shortstops, but they spent their competitive balance pick on Arizona State starter Alec Marsh. Marsh went and had a very successful debut in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League, posting a 4.05 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 38/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings at rookie level Idaho Falls. He stands out more for his total package than for any one flashy attribute, as he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds two nice breaking balls and a changeup. His command was pretty good in college but he really locked down the strike zone in his pro debut in 2019, and if he can maintain that sharp command, he should be able to work his way up as a #4 starter. Given the success of the Royals' 2018 draft picks, I wouldn't be surprised if he broke out and ended up as a mid-rotation guy.
- Grant Gambrell (2020 Age: 22): I wasn't a big fan of the Royals taking Gambrell in the third round out of Oregon State in 2019, and his 6.67 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 28/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at rookie level Idaho Falls in his pro debut don't help, but I wouldn't bet against any college pitchers in this system. Gambrell flashes great stuff, but he hasn't been even remotely consistent, so he'll be a project for the Royals. At his best, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider with good hard break, and a solid changeup, but he tends to lose feel for his pitches and his command comes and goes. He's got the ceiling to match most other arms in this system, but I'll be really interesting to see how if the Royals can get him to where he needs to be.
- Noah Murdock (2020 Age: 21): The Royals knew they were getting a project when they drafted Murdock in the seventh round out of UVA in 2019, as he posted a 6.30 ERA as a junior because his mechanics had a tendency of falling apart. The Royals were able to iron out similar issues for Austin Cox, and so far, it's looking up for Murdock as he posted a 2.17 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings for rookie level Burlington. He's a string bean at 6'8", but when he keeps his mechanics in line, he can get really good angle on his low 90's fastball and his inconsistent breaking ball, and that makes both pitches play up. Murdock has an extremely high ceiling for an seventh round college pick, but he's in the right system and could be well on his way a year from now so long as he stays healthy.
- Yohanse Morel (2020 Age: 19): The Royals have a few enigmatic young pitchers down in Class A in Carlos Hernandez, Evan Steele, Yefri Del Rosario, and Yohanse Morel, but as the youngest of the group, Morel will earn the writeup. Acquired from the Nationals in the Kelvin Herrera trade in 2018 just one game into his pro career, the Royals skipped Morel up to Class A Lexington in 2019 and he had a 6.02 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 57/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but for an 18 year old with just 47 innings of pro experience coming into the season, it wasn't half bad. He has an easy delivery and an extremely quick arm that helps him hurl low to mid 90's fastballs, solid sliders, and often plus, fading changeups. He's still learning to reign all that in, as he can lose his arm slot and therefore the zone, and he also needs to learn to sequence his pitches better, but the stuff is there for him to be an impact starting pitcher down the road. He's young enough that he should have plenty of time to learn himself as a pitcher, and his upside is tremendous.
- Keep an eye on: Rito Lugo, Daniel Tillo, Carlos Hernandez, Evan Steele, Charlie Neuweiler, Yefri Del Rosario
Relief Pitching
- Josh Staumont (2020 Age: 26): It feels like prospect evaluators have been writing about Staumont's electric arm for all of eternity, though in reality he was drafted out of Azusa Pacific in the second round in 2015. He somehow managed to walk 201 batters in 248 innings between 2016 and 2017, so the Royals finally bumped him to the bullpen in 2018 and the results have been decent. In 2019, Staumont had a 3.16 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 74/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at AAA Omaha, then posted a 3.72 ERA and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 major league innings. His fastball easily sits in the upper 90's and his hammer curveball can be equally devastating, and while he's improved his command over the last couple of seasons, he still struggles to locate those pitches where he wants them. The stuff is so good that he doesn't even need average command to succeed as a major league reliever, but he does need to at least get the ball in the general area of where the catcher is setting up or else he won't last very long. In 2020, I guess we'll see.
- Zach Haake (2020 Age: 23): Drafted in the sixth round in 2018 out of Kentucky, Haake had a good first full season like all of his counterparts in that draft, but it wasn't quite as good and combined with his profile, it probably makes him a reliever long term. Haake struggled mightily for the Wildcats in 2018 to the tune of an 8.47 ERA, but he turned it around really nicely in pro ball with a 1.76 ERA in his pro debut then in 2019 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 94/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, mostly at Class A Lexington. Haake has great stuff, highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a very inconsistent slider that can look great at times, and a changeup that has come along nicely in pro ball, though command and overall inconsistency have held him back. The Royals ironed him out and got him at least throwing strikes in the South Atlantic League, though there's still work to do there with the overall command and his secondary pitches are still very inconsistent. Given the depth of starting pitching talent in this system, he's probably a reliever long term, but the Royals will give him more opportunities to start and break through.
- Drew Parrish (2020 Age: 22): Parrish was an eighth rounder out of Florida State in 2019, and though he followed a dominant sophomore season with an up and down junior year in Tallahassee, he turned it around nicely in his pro debut with a 2.52 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at rookie level Burlington. Parrish stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, adding a great tumbling changeup and a decent breaking ball. The lefty commands everything very well, but the stuff is probably just a bit light to start unless he takes a step forward with his velocity. Kris Bubic did have a similar profile coming out of Stanford a year prior, if with marginally better stuff and marginally less command, and he's pitched extremely well in this system, so there's certainly hope for Parrish as a starter. Still, I think his most likely destination is the bullpen, where he could really pitch off his changeup and perhaps add a tick of velocity to get up into the low 90's.
- Keep an eye on: Conner Greene, Tyler Zuber, Josh Dye, Austin Lambright, Dante Biasi
Saturday, December 28, 2019
2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' organization lacks a "wow" top prospect (there are enough questions surrounding Hunter Greene's health and secondary stuff that we should hold off on the "future ace" projections for now), but they do have a nice group of solid could-be's who are only an adjustment or two from becoming legitimate impact players. That group includes pitchers Greene, Tony Santillan, Packy Naughton, and Nick Lodolo, who could join the rotation sooner rather than later, and position players Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, Michael Siani, Tyler Callihan, and Rece Hinds all have impact potential at the plate. I think that makes it a pretty average system overall, though steps forward from Greene, Siani, Hinds, and/or James Marinan could change that, and the Reds would also like to see upper minors guys like Jose Siri, TJ Friedl, and Victor Gutierrez figure it out and fulfill their potential.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Chattanooga Lookouts, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level AZL and DSL Reds
Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson (2020 Age: 23): Stephenson was the Reds' first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and like you'd expect for a high school catcher, he's moved slowly. Reaching AA in 2019, he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and a 60/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Chattanooga, nice numbers that were pretty consistent with what he did in 2017 and 2018. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame, though to this point he hasn't really tapped it and now after 376 pro games, he probably never will be the 25-30 home run bat he was projected as in high school. Still, with his strength and ability to keep the strikeouts low, he should profile for around 10-20 per season in the majors while posting solid on-base percentages, which combined with his strong defense means he could lock down a starting role. Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali are capable but certainly not enough to block Stephenson, and he should be up at some point in 2020 and potentially the starter not long after.
- Eric Yang (2020 Age: 22): Yang was the Reds' seventh round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019, and a successful pro debut has him primed to work his way up as a potential backup catcher. Assigned to rookie level Billings, he hit .290/.428/.420 with four home runs and a 44/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing that all of the strengths that the Reds drafted him for would at least play up in the low minors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone and is more than capable of getting hits and posting high on-base percentages. Add in good defense, and he's a prototypical backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hendrik Clementina, Jay Schuyler, Jose Tello
Corner Infield
- Jonathan India (2020 Age: 23): The Reds took India with the fifth overall pick in 2018 on the heels of a huge breakout season for Florida, though his bat has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .259/.365/.402 with eleven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. Known for both power and on-base ability at Florida, the on-base ability played up, but the power, not so much. There were concerns about India's power in college, as it showed up in spades with metal bats but did not in a small sample with wood bats, and 2019 didn't assuage those concerns that his power was a product of the metal bats. He's a strong defender at third base, taking some pressure off the bat, but it's not clear where he fits in the Cincinnati infield behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas. Maybe he can handle shortstop, but that's a bit of a stretch. Either way, he'll want to rediscover that power stroke if he wants to live up to the expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick – if not, he projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is still good enough to start somewhere due to his good defense.
- Ibandel Isabel (2020 Age: 24-25): In 2019, the Reds deployed an alliterative 6'4" power hitter with strikeout concerns and Aristides Aquino turned out very well. They'll hope the same thing happens in 2020 with Ibandel Isabel, though Isabel's strikeout concerns may be even more pronounced. In 2019, he slashed .243/.307/.518 with 26 home runs and a 153/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Chattanooga, giving him three straight seasons with more than 25 home runs. Like India, he doesn't have a clear path to starting with Joey Votto firmly entrenched at his only position, and he definitely falls behind India on the depth chart if Votto gets hurt. Still, there's no denying Isabel's power, and he smokes left handed pitching enough (.330/.385/.588 in 2019) that he could profile well as a platoon or bench bat at the major league level as soon as 2020.
- Tyler Callihan (2020 Age: 19-20): The Reds took Callihan in the third round out of a Jacksonville high school in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal to keep him from attending Florida. His successful pro debut saw him slash .263/.298/.442 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 50/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at rookie affiliates Greeneville and Billings. Though he's a stocky 6'1", he stands out more for his contact ability than for his power at this point. Callihan had some of the best feel for the barrel in the 2019 high school class, which should help him avoid some of the bust risk of most other high schoolers, and he could also develop some power if he starts driving the ball in the air more. He does need to get a little more patient, as he makes such easy contact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. Defensively, it's not clear where he'll end up, as he has decent arm strength but limited range, pointing to a career either at second or third base.
- Rece Hinds (2020 Age: 19): Hinds went in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2019, a round before Callihan, though he went 0-8 at rookie level Greeneville before lingering quad problems kept him out of action for the rest of the season. He's got a ton of raw power from the right side, and he's shown no trouble getting to it even against higher velocities. However, he's struggled against quality breaking stuff, so he might take a bit longer to develop than Callihan. The Reds can look to the Cardinals' success with Nolan Gorman, who had a similar profile coming out of high school, though Hinds probably needs even more work with that hit tool than Gorman did. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but saw action exclusively at third base during his brief pro debut, and he'll need to work on his defensive game just to stay there and keep from ending up at first base. Given the presence of Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India, and possibly Callihan at third base, first base seems more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Alejo Lopez
Middle Infield
- Alfredo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 25-26): The Reds signed Rodriguez out of Cuba for $7 million in 2016 because of his excellent defense at shortstop. All he needs to do is hit a little bit, but as I wrote last year, over his first couple of pro seasons he "didn't hit a lick" and in 2018 he slashed just .210/.273/.312. However, that started to change in 2019, as he slashed .267/.314/.327 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, though he was much better at the lower level (.286/.325/.347 in 104 games) than the higher level (.169/.261/.221 in 23 games). That's not a stat line that screams future regular, as he still shows very little power except a little bit to the gaps, but at least he got on base at a decent clip against advanced pitching in AA. The calling card here is the glove, and if he can continue to tweak his approach and figure out how to get some singles, doubles, and walks at the major league level, he should be a nice utility infielder/defensive replacement in the near future.
- Jose Garcia (2020 Age: 22): The Reds plucked Garcia out of Cuba for $5 million in 2017 not long after they signed Rodriguez for similar money out of the same hometown of Havana. After slashing .245/.290/.344 in 2018, he took a step forward in 2019 by slashing .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at High A Daytona Beach. He makes easy, consistent contact from the right side, and his ability to barrel the ball up helped him knock 37 doubles in addition to his eight home runs. He's an aggressive hitter that tends to put the ball in play early in the count, and while that hasn't hurt him to this point, it does limit his walk totals. He's a sound defensive shortstop who will stick there, and if all goes right and he keeps hitting the way he did in 2019, he could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, which should be good enough to start.
- Ivan Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson looked overmatched as a freshman at Georgia, but he found his footing after transferring to Chipola Junior College for his sophomore season and hit his way to a fourth round selection in 2019. After being drafted, he hit .255/.327/.415 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at rookie level Greeneville. He's a switch hitter that hits for a lot of impact with his explosive swing, and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. He's not anything special defensively and probably fits best at second base, but with the upside in his bat, he may be able to start there as someone who could produce 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Yan Contreras, Jose Acosta
Outfield
- Jose Siri (2020 Age: 24-25): Siri had a big breakout year with Class A in 2017 (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530), though he hasn't been quite as flashy since reaching the upper minors. In 2019, he slashed .237/.300/.357 with 11 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 165/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, and a 3-3 performance in his final game brought his AAA batting average up from .162 to .186. Siri is the most tooled up player in the system, and while his strengths are very clear, so are his weaknesses. He has a lot of raw pop in his 6'2" frame and explosive swing, but that comes with poor plate discipline that has kept him from getting to it consistently in the upper minors and which has suppressed his on-base percentages. At the same time, he has exceptional speed that has allowed him to swipe 20 or more bases in four straight seasons, as well as a plus arm in the outfield, though his instincts are just decent enough that he's more of a "very good" defender than an elite one. Set to turn 25 in July, he's not the youngest prospect any more, but it still remains to be seen what he turns into at the big league level, all depending on how he manages the strike zone against big league pitching.
- Stuart Fairchild (2020 Age: 24): Fairchild was a second round pick out of Wake Forest in 2017, and he's put up solid if unspectacular numbers as he's risen through the minors. In 2019, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 home runs and an 83/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona Beach and AA Chattanooga, and he actually hit better at the higher level (.275/.380/.444) than at the lower level (.258/.335/.440). 2019 was a nice step forward for a few reasons, one being that he cut his strikeout rate when he got to AA and another being that he started to tap into a little bit of power – there's not a ton in his skinny, 6' frame, but by finding the barrel more in 2019, he naturally ran into more power. At this point, he looks like a fringe-starter who could hit around ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and above average defense in the outfield, but he's trending in the right direction and he might not be too far off from reaching that projection.
- TJ Friedl (2020 Age: 24-25): Friedl went undrafted out of Nevada in 2016, but that was only because nobody, including himself, knew he was eligible, but once everyone figured it out, he signed for $735,000 (third round money) as a free agent. He hit really well in his first couple of pro seasons, but the bat has stalled so far in the upper minors and 2019 was a tough year. Bothered by ankle problems, he slashed just .235/.347/.385 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 50/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at AA Chattanooga before he was finally shut down for the season in July, and while that certainly dents his stock, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He still showed a great understanding of the strike zone while keeping his strikeouts down and his walks up against advanced pitching, and while he didn't hit for a ton of impact in 2019, he's previously shown great feel for the barrel that gives him plenty of gap power if not too much in the way of home run power. He also has a lot of speed that plays well on the bases and in the outfield, giving him a good chance to end up as a valuable fourth outfielder if he can bounce back with a healthy 2020.
- Jameson Hannah (2020 Age: 22-23): The A's drafted Hannah in the second round out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, then shipped him to the Reds for Tanner Roark in 2019. He slashed .274/.339/.369 with two home runs and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between the two High A affiliates, though he did slump a bit at the end of the season. Hannah is a shorter guy at 5'9", but he has a quick swing and good feel for the barrel from the left side that should enable him to post high on-base percentages even if he lacks much in the way of power. He's also one of the faster runners in his new system, though he's still learning to deploy his speed effectively on the bases and in the outfield. He was young for a college draftee in 2018 and doesn't turn 23 until August, so while he has some work to do, he has a bit more time to figure it out as well. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a future leadoff man, but he has a high floor and should end up as a fourth outfielder.
- Andy Sugilio (2020 Age: 23): Sugilio has never been a big name, and it certainly wasn't after he slashed .221/.287/.288 as a 19 year old in the complex level Arizona League in 2016. However, he hit .345/.390/.472 in rookie ball in 2017 and .278/.308/.380 in Class A in 2018, then continued hitting in 2019 with a .294/.331/.360 slash line, three home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Daytona. He's moved very slowly through the minors, but he may finally be putting the pieces together with a quick, strong swing from the left side, natural power in his 6'2" frame, and enough speed to make him a weapon on the bases. He makes consistent hard contact and avoids strikeouts, but too often, he's been pounding the ball into the ground. If anybody could break out by joining the Fly Ball Revolution, it's Sugilio, and I'd be interested to see if he could match his career home run total (12 in 419 games) with a more fly ball-oriented approach in 2020.
- Michael Siani (2020 Age: 20-21): Siani was the Reds' fourth round pick out of a Philadelphia high school in 2018, though he signed for borderline first round money at $2 million then hit well in his pro debut (.288/.351/.386). In 2019, he slashed .253/.333/.339 with six home runs, 45 stolen bases, and a 109/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Dayton, his speed showing up nicely but his power, not so much. Siani was supposed to be a bit of a project on offense, so a .333 on-base percentage in full season ball actually isn't too shabby for a 19-20 year old, and he did keep his strikeout rate reasonably low. The next step for him will be adding some power, as he has some natural pop in his 6'1" frame but didn't quite tap it as much as he may have liked to in the colder Midwest League environment. He's known for his speed and defense, as he'll definitely stick in center field as one of the best defenders in the system, which of course buys the bat plenty of time. The speed certainly showed up, too, as he was one of just ten minor leaguers to steal 45 bases this year. After Siri, he likely has the highest ceiling of any outfielder in this system as a true center fielder who can post high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season, but he also has a lot of work to do to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Narciso Crook, Michael Beltre, Lorenzo Cedrola, Mariel Bautista, Quin Cotton, Wendell Marrero
Starting Pitching
- Tony Santillan (2020 Age: 23): The Reds drafted Santillan in the second round out of high school in Seguin, Texas in 2015, and he's risen slowly but steadily up the minor league ladder. After a dominant 2018 (3.08 ERA, 134/38 K/BB), he took a bit of a step back in 2019 by posting a 4.84 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 92/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AA Chattanooga, and he missed the last month of the season with triceps problems. He's got big league stuff, starting with a mid 90's fastball and also including a good slider and changeup, but after making big gains with his command in 2018, he regressed again in 2019. The command was shaky enough this year that he got hit much more than he should have given his stuff, and he'll have to get back to where he was last year if he wants to reach his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter. That's really it on Santillan – put 2019 behind him, hit his spots like he did in 2018, and go from there.
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2020 Age: 24): The Reds signed three players from Havana in 2016 and 2017 for a combined $16.75 million, and Gutierrez, the cheapest of the three at $4.75 million, beat both Alfredo Rodriguez ($7 million) and Jose Garcia ($5 million) to AAA. After a strong 2018 in AA (4.35 ERA, 145/38 K/BB), he did struggle a bit with that assignment to AAA, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 117/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings for Louisville, though he did finish strong with a 2.83 ERA and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his final five starts. He has a deep plunge in the back of his delivery, which helps him get good angle on all three of his pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he adds a nice two-plane curveball and a diving changeup, all of which benefit from that aforementioned angle. His control is solid, but he fell victim to the home run frequently in 2019 as he wasn't able to avoid barrels inside the zone as often as he would have liked. Gutierrez has big league stuff, so the key will be getting more consistent with his curveball and hitting his spots better on the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a #3 or a #4 starter, but if he can't, he's probably a reliever.
- Packy Naughton (2020 Age: 24): I watched Naughton extensively in college, and he's a really interesting case. At Virginia Tech, he flashed good stuff but struggled to command it, keep his delivery intact, and stay out of his own head, and he finished with a 6.15 ERA over three seasons. The Reds still drafted him in the ninth round in 2017, and the results were immediate. His stuff hasn't really taken a step forward and plays closer to average now that he's out of the ACC and into pro ball, but he's learned to repeat his delivery much more consistently and his command is now a tick above average. The adjustments enabled him to put up excellent numbers in 2019, including a 3.32 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, but they all play up because of his funky delivery that hitters just have a hard time picking up. That's probably a #4 starter profile in the majors, but the Reds have to be extremely happy with his development to this point and he still has a fallback option as a funky left handed reliever, where he should be very effective.
- Hunter Greene (2020 Age: 20-21): Sometimes injuries can be more disappointing than anything else, and while it's not surprising that a teenager who threw 102 would go down with Tommy John surgery, I think we all felt a little gut punch when it was announced Greene had blown out his elbow and would have to miss the 2019 season. Fortunately, he's still really young and doesn't turn 21 until August, so the 2017 second overall pick still has plenty of time to develop. The Reds will therefore take it slow with him in 2020 as he builds back his strength before hopefully cutting him loose in 2021. It's very clear where all the hype lies with Greene. His fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's with ease, and I saw him hit 102 in person – let me tell you, if you think you've ever seen someone throw a ball fast, you haven't. 102 is just different, plain and simple. Now he still had a 4.48 ERA in 2018 because the rest of his game needs work. His slider looks like a plus pitch at times, but he doesn't always get the shape on it that he wants, and his changeup is more or less average. He's an exceptional athlete with an easy delivery, but his command plays closer to average and he still needs to hit his spots more consistently. Greene has a lot of work to do, and with that velocity and his work ethic, anything is possible, but I'd project him more as a mid-rotation starter than as an ace at this point.
- Mac Sceroler (2020 Age: 25): Sceroler was the Reds' fifth round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2017, then after an up and down first full season in 2018 (4.97 ERA, 81/30 K/BB), he broke out in 2019 to put himself on the map. This year, he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 127/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A Daytona, a step forward in his command being the major difference. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and a changeup, a fringy group of pitches as a whole but one that plays up nicely now that he's been controlling the zone better. He turns 25 at the start of the season, so he's not the youngest prospect in the system, but he has back of the rotation potential.
- Nick Lodolo (2020 Age: 22): Drafted 41st overall by the Pirates in 2016, Lodolo instead went to TCU and after two good-not-great seasons, he put it together in his junior year and found himself drafted seventh overall by the Reds as the first pitcher taken off the board. He didn't pitch much after a long college season, but still posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 18.1 innings without walking a single batter (though he did hit one) at rookie level Billings and Class A Dayton. He's a 6'6" lefty that cleaned up his mechanics in 2019, and that enabled him to throw more strikes and get more out of his stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up due to the angle he gets on it, and he's moved away from an average curveball towards a sharper slider, which he's still figuring out. He also adds a good changeup, and together that's the upside of a #2 or #3 starter if he can sharpen that slider further. With his good command, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.
- Lyon Richardson (2020 Age: 20): The Reds have a couple of power high school arms down in their low minors, and while Jacob Heatherly and James Marinan have gotten off to slow starts, Richardson was solid in his first full season. The Reds drafted him in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2018, and after getting knocked around in his pro debut (7.14 ERA, 24/16 K/BB), he posted a 4.15 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 106/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings at Class A Dayton in 2019. His fastball is his best weapon, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and his slider has improved in pro ball to give him a second good pitch. He's still working on getting more consistent with his curve and his changeup, but he also made progress with his command in 2019, which is now closer to average. There's a lot more work to be done here, but he's a better pitcher than he was a year ago, and the Reds hope he'll maintain that trajectory in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Tejay Antone, Jared Solomon, Ryan Lillie, James Marinan, Graham Ashcraft, Jacob Heatherly
Relief Pitching
- Joel Kuhnel (2020 Age: 25): If we're talking about Kuhnel, we're talking about velocity. The Reds' eleventh round pick out of UT-Arlington in 2016 sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, both of which can creep above 90. Additionally, the 6'5" righty can command everything very well, which is not common for pitchers who throw that hard. In 2019, he had a 2.18 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 50/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, then put up a 4.66 ERA and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. As it stands, Kuhnel is probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning type, but just a little bit of refinement to either of his secondary pitches, which stand out more for their velocity than for their movement, could get him there.
- Jose De Leon (2020 Age: 27-28): The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round out of Southern University way back in 2013, but he quickly established himself as a big time arm and reached the majors in 2016. However, he's battled numerous injuries and has been traded twice since then, first to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in 2017 then, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, to the Reds for cash or a player to be named later in 2019. This past year in the Rays organization, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between High A and AAA, and over three years in the majors, he has a 6.08 ERA and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. He's still a starter at this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen given the competition at the top of the Reds' system as well as his long history of arm troubles. His velocity has fluctuated but he can sit in the low to mid 90's at best, and he adds a slider and a true weapon of a changeup. His command has been understandably inconsistent, but a move to the bullpen could enable him to focus on his fastball/changeup combination and hopefully take some of the strain off his arm. It would also enable him to contribute immediately in 2020.
- Ryan Hendrix (2020 Age: 25): The Reds picked Hendrix in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Texas A&M, and he's pitched really well with a 2.55 ERA so far in the minors. In 2019, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings between AA Chattanooga and complex level rehab work, though he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. Fortunately, he made a healthy return in July, and he was back to throwing mid 90's fastballs and power curveballs that could carve through minor league bats. That breaking ball is sharper than Kuhnel's, but he doesn't have the same kind of command, as his has been much spottier. Health is obviously the first big thing, but if he can prove that, he'll also need to throw more consistent strikes if he wants to be more than a middle reliever. He does have the stuff to profile in the late innings.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Byrne, Dauri Moreta, Diomar Lopez, Randy Wynne, Matt Pidich
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Chattanooga Lookouts, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level AZL and DSL Reds
Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson (2020 Age: 23): Stephenson was the Reds' first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and like you'd expect for a high school catcher, he's moved slowly. Reaching AA in 2019, he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and a 60/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Chattanooga, nice numbers that were pretty consistent with what he did in 2017 and 2018. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame, though to this point he hasn't really tapped it and now after 376 pro games, he probably never will be the 25-30 home run bat he was projected as in high school. Still, with his strength and ability to keep the strikeouts low, he should profile for around 10-20 per season in the majors while posting solid on-base percentages, which combined with his strong defense means he could lock down a starting role. Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali are capable but certainly not enough to block Stephenson, and he should be up at some point in 2020 and potentially the starter not long after.
- Eric Yang (2020 Age: 22): Yang was the Reds' seventh round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019, and a successful pro debut has him primed to work his way up as a potential backup catcher. Assigned to rookie level Billings, he hit .290/.428/.420 with four home runs and a 44/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing that all of the strengths that the Reds drafted him for would at least play up in the low minors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone and is more than capable of getting hits and posting high on-base percentages. Add in good defense, and he's a prototypical backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hendrik Clementina, Jay Schuyler, Jose Tello
Corner Infield
- Jonathan India (2020 Age: 23): The Reds took India with the fifth overall pick in 2018 on the heels of a huge breakout season for Florida, though his bat has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .259/.365/.402 with eleven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. Known for both power and on-base ability at Florida, the on-base ability played up, but the power, not so much. There were concerns about India's power in college, as it showed up in spades with metal bats but did not in a small sample with wood bats, and 2019 didn't assuage those concerns that his power was a product of the metal bats. He's a strong defender at third base, taking some pressure off the bat, but it's not clear where he fits in the Cincinnati infield behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas. Maybe he can handle shortstop, but that's a bit of a stretch. Either way, he'll want to rediscover that power stroke if he wants to live up to the expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick – if not, he projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is still good enough to start somewhere due to his good defense.
- Ibandel Isabel (2020 Age: 24-25): In 2019, the Reds deployed an alliterative 6'4" power hitter with strikeout concerns and Aristides Aquino turned out very well. They'll hope the same thing happens in 2020 with Ibandel Isabel, though Isabel's strikeout concerns may be even more pronounced. In 2019, he slashed .243/.307/.518 with 26 home runs and a 153/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Chattanooga, giving him three straight seasons with more than 25 home runs. Like India, he doesn't have a clear path to starting with Joey Votto firmly entrenched at his only position, and he definitely falls behind India on the depth chart if Votto gets hurt. Still, there's no denying Isabel's power, and he smokes left handed pitching enough (.330/.385/.588 in 2019) that he could profile well as a platoon or bench bat at the major league level as soon as 2020.
- Tyler Callihan (2020 Age: 19-20): The Reds took Callihan in the third round out of a Jacksonville high school in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal to keep him from attending Florida. His successful pro debut saw him slash .263/.298/.442 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 50/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at rookie affiliates Greeneville and Billings. Though he's a stocky 6'1", he stands out more for his contact ability than for his power at this point. Callihan had some of the best feel for the barrel in the 2019 high school class, which should help him avoid some of the bust risk of most other high schoolers, and he could also develop some power if he starts driving the ball in the air more. He does need to get a little more patient, as he makes such easy contact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. Defensively, it's not clear where he'll end up, as he has decent arm strength but limited range, pointing to a career either at second or third base.
- Rece Hinds (2020 Age: 19): Hinds went in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2019, a round before Callihan, though he went 0-8 at rookie level Greeneville before lingering quad problems kept him out of action for the rest of the season. He's got a ton of raw power from the right side, and he's shown no trouble getting to it even against higher velocities. However, he's struggled against quality breaking stuff, so he might take a bit longer to develop than Callihan. The Reds can look to the Cardinals' success with Nolan Gorman, who had a similar profile coming out of high school, though Hinds probably needs even more work with that hit tool than Gorman did. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but saw action exclusively at third base during his brief pro debut, and he'll need to work on his defensive game just to stay there and keep from ending up at first base. Given the presence of Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India, and possibly Callihan at third base, first base seems more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Alejo Lopez
Middle Infield
- Alfredo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 25-26): The Reds signed Rodriguez out of Cuba for $7 million in 2016 because of his excellent defense at shortstop. All he needs to do is hit a little bit, but as I wrote last year, over his first couple of pro seasons he "didn't hit a lick" and in 2018 he slashed just .210/.273/.312. However, that started to change in 2019, as he slashed .267/.314/.327 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, though he was much better at the lower level (.286/.325/.347 in 104 games) than the higher level (.169/.261/.221 in 23 games). That's not a stat line that screams future regular, as he still shows very little power except a little bit to the gaps, but at least he got on base at a decent clip against advanced pitching in AA. The calling card here is the glove, and if he can continue to tweak his approach and figure out how to get some singles, doubles, and walks at the major league level, he should be a nice utility infielder/defensive replacement in the near future.
- Jose Garcia (2020 Age: 22): The Reds plucked Garcia out of Cuba for $5 million in 2017 not long after they signed Rodriguez for similar money out of the same hometown of Havana. After slashing .245/.290/.344 in 2018, he took a step forward in 2019 by slashing .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at High A Daytona Beach. He makes easy, consistent contact from the right side, and his ability to barrel the ball up helped him knock 37 doubles in addition to his eight home runs. He's an aggressive hitter that tends to put the ball in play early in the count, and while that hasn't hurt him to this point, it does limit his walk totals. He's a sound defensive shortstop who will stick there, and if all goes right and he keeps hitting the way he did in 2019, he could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, which should be good enough to start.
- Ivan Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson looked overmatched as a freshman at Georgia, but he found his footing after transferring to Chipola Junior College for his sophomore season and hit his way to a fourth round selection in 2019. After being drafted, he hit .255/.327/.415 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at rookie level Greeneville. He's a switch hitter that hits for a lot of impact with his explosive swing, and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. He's not anything special defensively and probably fits best at second base, but with the upside in his bat, he may be able to start there as someone who could produce 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Yan Contreras, Jose Acosta
Outfield
- Jose Siri (2020 Age: 24-25): Siri had a big breakout year with Class A in 2017 (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530), though he hasn't been quite as flashy since reaching the upper minors. In 2019, he slashed .237/.300/.357 with 11 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 165/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, and a 3-3 performance in his final game brought his AAA batting average up from .162 to .186. Siri is the most tooled up player in the system, and while his strengths are very clear, so are his weaknesses. He has a lot of raw pop in his 6'2" frame and explosive swing, but that comes with poor plate discipline that has kept him from getting to it consistently in the upper minors and which has suppressed his on-base percentages. At the same time, he has exceptional speed that has allowed him to swipe 20 or more bases in four straight seasons, as well as a plus arm in the outfield, though his instincts are just decent enough that he's more of a "very good" defender than an elite one. Set to turn 25 in July, he's not the youngest prospect any more, but it still remains to be seen what he turns into at the big league level, all depending on how he manages the strike zone against big league pitching.
- Stuart Fairchild (2020 Age: 24): Fairchild was a second round pick out of Wake Forest in 2017, and he's put up solid if unspectacular numbers as he's risen through the minors. In 2019, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 home runs and an 83/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona Beach and AA Chattanooga, and he actually hit better at the higher level (.275/.380/.444) than at the lower level (.258/.335/.440). 2019 was a nice step forward for a few reasons, one being that he cut his strikeout rate when he got to AA and another being that he started to tap into a little bit of power – there's not a ton in his skinny, 6' frame, but by finding the barrel more in 2019, he naturally ran into more power. At this point, he looks like a fringe-starter who could hit around ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and above average defense in the outfield, but he's trending in the right direction and he might not be too far off from reaching that projection.
- TJ Friedl (2020 Age: 24-25): Friedl went undrafted out of Nevada in 2016, but that was only because nobody, including himself, knew he was eligible, but once everyone figured it out, he signed for $735,000 (third round money) as a free agent. He hit really well in his first couple of pro seasons, but the bat has stalled so far in the upper minors and 2019 was a tough year. Bothered by ankle problems, he slashed just .235/.347/.385 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 50/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at AA Chattanooga before he was finally shut down for the season in July, and while that certainly dents his stock, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He still showed a great understanding of the strike zone while keeping his strikeouts down and his walks up against advanced pitching, and while he didn't hit for a ton of impact in 2019, he's previously shown great feel for the barrel that gives him plenty of gap power if not too much in the way of home run power. He also has a lot of speed that plays well on the bases and in the outfield, giving him a good chance to end up as a valuable fourth outfielder if he can bounce back with a healthy 2020.
- Jameson Hannah (2020 Age: 22-23): The A's drafted Hannah in the second round out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, then shipped him to the Reds for Tanner Roark in 2019. He slashed .274/.339/.369 with two home runs and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between the two High A affiliates, though he did slump a bit at the end of the season. Hannah is a shorter guy at 5'9", but he has a quick swing and good feel for the barrel from the left side that should enable him to post high on-base percentages even if he lacks much in the way of power. He's also one of the faster runners in his new system, though he's still learning to deploy his speed effectively on the bases and in the outfield. He was young for a college draftee in 2018 and doesn't turn 23 until August, so while he has some work to do, he has a bit more time to figure it out as well. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a future leadoff man, but he has a high floor and should end up as a fourth outfielder.
- Andy Sugilio (2020 Age: 23): Sugilio has never been a big name, and it certainly wasn't after he slashed .221/.287/.288 as a 19 year old in the complex level Arizona League in 2016. However, he hit .345/.390/.472 in rookie ball in 2017 and .278/.308/.380 in Class A in 2018, then continued hitting in 2019 with a .294/.331/.360 slash line, three home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Daytona. He's moved very slowly through the minors, but he may finally be putting the pieces together with a quick, strong swing from the left side, natural power in his 6'2" frame, and enough speed to make him a weapon on the bases. He makes consistent hard contact and avoids strikeouts, but too often, he's been pounding the ball into the ground. If anybody could break out by joining the Fly Ball Revolution, it's Sugilio, and I'd be interested to see if he could match his career home run total (12 in 419 games) with a more fly ball-oriented approach in 2020.
- Michael Siani (2020 Age: 20-21): Siani was the Reds' fourth round pick out of a Philadelphia high school in 2018, though he signed for borderline first round money at $2 million then hit well in his pro debut (.288/.351/.386). In 2019, he slashed .253/.333/.339 with six home runs, 45 stolen bases, and a 109/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Dayton, his speed showing up nicely but his power, not so much. Siani was supposed to be a bit of a project on offense, so a .333 on-base percentage in full season ball actually isn't too shabby for a 19-20 year old, and he did keep his strikeout rate reasonably low. The next step for him will be adding some power, as he has some natural pop in his 6'1" frame but didn't quite tap it as much as he may have liked to in the colder Midwest League environment. He's known for his speed and defense, as he'll definitely stick in center field as one of the best defenders in the system, which of course buys the bat plenty of time. The speed certainly showed up, too, as he was one of just ten minor leaguers to steal 45 bases this year. After Siri, he likely has the highest ceiling of any outfielder in this system as a true center fielder who can post high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season, but he also has a lot of work to do to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Narciso Crook, Michael Beltre, Lorenzo Cedrola, Mariel Bautista, Quin Cotton, Wendell Marrero
Starting Pitching
- Tony Santillan (2020 Age: 23): The Reds drafted Santillan in the second round out of high school in Seguin, Texas in 2015, and he's risen slowly but steadily up the minor league ladder. After a dominant 2018 (3.08 ERA, 134/38 K/BB), he took a bit of a step back in 2019 by posting a 4.84 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 92/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AA Chattanooga, and he missed the last month of the season with triceps problems. He's got big league stuff, starting with a mid 90's fastball and also including a good slider and changeup, but after making big gains with his command in 2018, he regressed again in 2019. The command was shaky enough this year that he got hit much more than he should have given his stuff, and he'll have to get back to where he was last year if he wants to reach his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter. That's really it on Santillan – put 2019 behind him, hit his spots like he did in 2018, and go from there.
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2020 Age: 24): The Reds signed three players from Havana in 2016 and 2017 for a combined $16.75 million, and Gutierrez, the cheapest of the three at $4.75 million, beat both Alfredo Rodriguez ($7 million) and Jose Garcia ($5 million) to AAA. After a strong 2018 in AA (4.35 ERA, 145/38 K/BB), he did struggle a bit with that assignment to AAA, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 117/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings for Louisville, though he did finish strong with a 2.83 ERA and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his final five starts. He has a deep plunge in the back of his delivery, which helps him get good angle on all three of his pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he adds a nice two-plane curveball and a diving changeup, all of which benefit from that aforementioned angle. His control is solid, but he fell victim to the home run frequently in 2019 as he wasn't able to avoid barrels inside the zone as often as he would have liked. Gutierrez has big league stuff, so the key will be getting more consistent with his curveball and hitting his spots better on the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a #3 or a #4 starter, but if he can't, he's probably a reliever.
- Packy Naughton (2020 Age: 24): I watched Naughton extensively in college, and he's a really interesting case. At Virginia Tech, he flashed good stuff but struggled to command it, keep his delivery intact, and stay out of his own head, and he finished with a 6.15 ERA over three seasons. The Reds still drafted him in the ninth round in 2017, and the results were immediate. His stuff hasn't really taken a step forward and plays closer to average now that he's out of the ACC and into pro ball, but he's learned to repeat his delivery much more consistently and his command is now a tick above average. The adjustments enabled him to put up excellent numbers in 2019, including a 3.32 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, but they all play up because of his funky delivery that hitters just have a hard time picking up. That's probably a #4 starter profile in the majors, but the Reds have to be extremely happy with his development to this point and he still has a fallback option as a funky left handed reliever, where he should be very effective.
- Hunter Greene (2020 Age: 20-21): Sometimes injuries can be more disappointing than anything else, and while it's not surprising that a teenager who threw 102 would go down with Tommy John surgery, I think we all felt a little gut punch when it was announced Greene had blown out his elbow and would have to miss the 2019 season. Fortunately, he's still really young and doesn't turn 21 until August, so the 2017 second overall pick still has plenty of time to develop. The Reds will therefore take it slow with him in 2020 as he builds back his strength before hopefully cutting him loose in 2021. It's very clear where all the hype lies with Greene. His fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's with ease, and I saw him hit 102 in person – let me tell you, if you think you've ever seen someone throw a ball fast, you haven't. 102 is just different, plain and simple. Now he still had a 4.48 ERA in 2018 because the rest of his game needs work. His slider looks like a plus pitch at times, but he doesn't always get the shape on it that he wants, and his changeup is more or less average. He's an exceptional athlete with an easy delivery, but his command plays closer to average and he still needs to hit his spots more consistently. Greene has a lot of work to do, and with that velocity and his work ethic, anything is possible, but I'd project him more as a mid-rotation starter than as an ace at this point.
- Mac Sceroler (2020 Age: 25): Sceroler was the Reds' fifth round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2017, then after an up and down first full season in 2018 (4.97 ERA, 81/30 K/BB), he broke out in 2019 to put himself on the map. This year, he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 127/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A Daytona, a step forward in his command being the major difference. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and a changeup, a fringy group of pitches as a whole but one that plays up nicely now that he's been controlling the zone better. He turns 25 at the start of the season, so he's not the youngest prospect in the system, but he has back of the rotation potential.
- Nick Lodolo (2020 Age: 22): Drafted 41st overall by the Pirates in 2016, Lodolo instead went to TCU and after two good-not-great seasons, he put it together in his junior year and found himself drafted seventh overall by the Reds as the first pitcher taken off the board. He didn't pitch much after a long college season, but still posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 18.1 innings without walking a single batter (though he did hit one) at rookie level Billings and Class A Dayton. He's a 6'6" lefty that cleaned up his mechanics in 2019, and that enabled him to throw more strikes and get more out of his stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up due to the angle he gets on it, and he's moved away from an average curveball towards a sharper slider, which he's still figuring out. He also adds a good changeup, and together that's the upside of a #2 or #3 starter if he can sharpen that slider further. With his good command, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.
- Lyon Richardson (2020 Age: 20): The Reds have a couple of power high school arms down in their low minors, and while Jacob Heatherly and James Marinan have gotten off to slow starts, Richardson was solid in his first full season. The Reds drafted him in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2018, and after getting knocked around in his pro debut (7.14 ERA, 24/16 K/BB), he posted a 4.15 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 106/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings at Class A Dayton in 2019. His fastball is his best weapon, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and his slider has improved in pro ball to give him a second good pitch. He's still working on getting more consistent with his curve and his changeup, but he also made progress with his command in 2019, which is now closer to average. There's a lot more work to be done here, but he's a better pitcher than he was a year ago, and the Reds hope he'll maintain that trajectory in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Tejay Antone, Jared Solomon, Ryan Lillie, James Marinan, Graham Ashcraft, Jacob Heatherly
Relief Pitching
- Joel Kuhnel (2020 Age: 25): If we're talking about Kuhnel, we're talking about velocity. The Reds' eleventh round pick out of UT-Arlington in 2016 sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, both of which can creep above 90. Additionally, the 6'5" righty can command everything very well, which is not common for pitchers who throw that hard. In 2019, he had a 2.18 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 50/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, then put up a 4.66 ERA and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. As it stands, Kuhnel is probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning type, but just a little bit of refinement to either of his secondary pitches, which stand out more for their velocity than for their movement, could get him there.
- Jose De Leon (2020 Age: 27-28): The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round out of Southern University way back in 2013, but he quickly established himself as a big time arm and reached the majors in 2016. However, he's battled numerous injuries and has been traded twice since then, first to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in 2017 then, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, to the Reds for cash or a player to be named later in 2019. This past year in the Rays organization, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between High A and AAA, and over three years in the majors, he has a 6.08 ERA and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. He's still a starter at this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen given the competition at the top of the Reds' system as well as his long history of arm troubles. His velocity has fluctuated but he can sit in the low to mid 90's at best, and he adds a slider and a true weapon of a changeup. His command has been understandably inconsistent, but a move to the bullpen could enable him to focus on his fastball/changeup combination and hopefully take some of the strain off his arm. It would also enable him to contribute immediately in 2020.
- Ryan Hendrix (2020 Age: 25): The Reds picked Hendrix in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Texas A&M, and he's pitched really well with a 2.55 ERA so far in the minors. In 2019, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings between AA Chattanooga and complex level rehab work, though he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. Fortunately, he made a healthy return in July, and he was back to throwing mid 90's fastballs and power curveballs that could carve through minor league bats. That breaking ball is sharper than Kuhnel's, but he doesn't have the same kind of command, as his has been much spottier. Health is obviously the first big thing, but if he can prove that, he'll also need to throw more consistent strikes if he wants to be more than a middle reliever. He does have the stuff to profile in the late innings.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Byrne, Dauri Moreta, Diomar Lopez, Randy Wynne, Matt Pidich
Friday, December 27, 2019
2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are one of the most complete teams in baseball, which makes sense considering they've reached the World Series in two of the past three seasons, but if they have one hole at the major league level, it's starting pitching depth after the departures of Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Corbin Martin. Conveniently, their farm system stands out for its incredible starting pitching depth, starting with the enigmatic Forrest Whitley and the rookie sensation Jose Urquidy and followed by enough arms that they'll need their own new sentence. In addition to Whitley and Urquidy, guys like Bryan Abreu, Brandon Bielak, Tyler Ivey, Cristian Javier, Rogelio Armenteros, and Brett Conine are knocking on the door to the big leagues, while guys like Luis Garcia, Nivaldo Rodriguez, and Jojanse Torres had breakout years down in A ball.
Even more impressive than their pitching depth is how they've built that depth – many of their best prospects came from the international market and signed for pennies on the dollar, and Javier, Garcia, Rodriguez, and Torres combined to sign for just $50,000. Throw in Urquidy, Abreu, and Armenteros, and that number only rises to $170,000 for eight legitimate pitching prospects, or about slot value for an eighth or ninth round draft prospect.
The story is very different on the hitting side. With Kyle Tucker graduated and Seth Beer in Arizona, there are very few impact prospects at the plate, and that makes breakouts from Abraham Toro and Jeremy Pena perhaps the best thing to happen to the system this year. Unfortunately, Toro and Pena are probably the only position players to significantly outplay their projections so far, and it's a light group overall.
Affiliates: AAA Round Rock Express, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Fayetteville Woodpeckers, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, short season Tri-City ValleyCats, complex level GCL and DSL Astros
Catcher
- Garrett Stubbs (2020 Age: 26-27): Stubbs, who will turn 27 in May, is pretty unremarkable as a prospect, but he does the little things right and with Robinson Chirinos departed via free agency, he has a chance to take over as the backup to Martin Maldonado in 2020. He was an eighth round pick out of USC back in 2015, then hit well in his first full season in 2016 (.304/.391/.469) to set himself up as one of the system's better catching prospects. He hasn't hit all that much since then, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.332/.397 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at AAA Round Rock, also hitting .200/.282/.286 with a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 19 major league games. He doesn't hit for a ton of impact, but he puts the ball in play regularly and is tough to strike out, which should help him be at least a competent hitter at the major league level. Since he's almost certainly ticketed for a backup role, that's all that's really needed, as his defense is good behind the plate and he'll have no problem handling major league pitching from that end. He also runs pretty well for a catcher, which certainly doesn't hurt. His brother, C.J., is also a catcher and was the Astros' tenth round pick in 2019 and hit .249/.340/.459 in his successful pro debut.
- Korey Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): The Astros surprised some people by drafting Lee at the end of the first round in 2019, as many projected the Cal catcher to go in the back half of the top 100 picks or perhaps even later. He hit well in his pro debut, slashing .268/.359/.371 with three home runs and a 49/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at short season Tri-City. He did that after putting up a big breakout in his junior season at Cal, in which he began to tap into his power much more consistently while maintaining good control of the strike zone. His lack of a track record means he comes with more risk than the typical first round college selection, though if Lee can continue on his upward trajectory, he could be a legitimate starting catcher with the pop to hit 20-25 home runs annually. Defensively, he has a cannon arm and is coming along with his glovework, but he needs more work there.
- Keep an eye on: Lorenzo Quintana, Michael Papierski, C.J. Stubbs, Nathan Perry
Corner Infield
- Abraham Toro (2020 Age: 23): Given his lack of real defensive value, Toro's bat has been fringy for a few years now, until he broke out in 2019 by slashing .324/.411/.527 with 17 home runs and an 82/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, then hit .218/.303/.385 with two home runs and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 major league games. He generates a lot of hard contact from his slightly uppercut swing, and his patient approach at the plate enables him to find his pitches and drive them. Together, that's an outlook of 15-25 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages, which should be enough to profile wherever he ends up defensively. However, he's blocked in Houston by Alex Bregman at third base, by Yuli Gurriel at first base, and by Yordan Alvarez at DH. He's probably best off being traded somewhere he can have a path to starting, but even in Houston he should be a valuable role player who can pick up starts at multiple positions spelling the regular starters.
- J.J. Matijevic (2020 Age: 24): The Astros took Matijevic in the second competitive balance round out of Arizona in 2017, though because he's a borderline defensive liability, all of the pressure is on his bat. He slashed .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs in his first full season in 2018, boosting his stock, but his rough 2019 pushed his stock in the other direction. A second failed non-PED drug test knocked him out for a month and a half, and when he was on the field, his bat played closer to average, as he slashed .251/.319/.441 with eleven home runs and a 101/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi. He's got some raw power from the left side, though his hit tool has been inconsistent and he hasn't quite gotten to it as consistently as perhaps he'd like. He's also a better hitter against right handed pitching, which combined with his lack of defensive value, means he might be ticketed to more of a platoon/bench role in the majors. He has experience in both the outfield and first base.
- Jake Adams (2020 Age: 24): Adams led all of Division I with 29 home runs for Iowa in 2017, but he lasted until the sixth round because power was just about all he offered. Fortunately, that power has played up, and he slashed .248/.311/.446 with 22 home runs and a 117/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. While he still has swing and miss in his game, the strikeouts haven't been as big of an issue as perhaps they could have been, though he'll probably have to continue to refine his approach a bit in order to make it to the majors. If he does, he could be a nice platoon option with Matijevic as a right handed hitter.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Jones, Colton Shaver, Joe Perez, Raider Uceta
Middle Infield
- Jeremy Pena (2020 Age: 22): The Astros drafted Pena in the third round in 2018 out of the University of Maine for his glove, hoping that he could just manage to hit enough to work his way up as a utility infielder. However, he ended up hitting for much more impact than originally expected, and in 2019 he slashed .303/.385/.440 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's begun to tap into it more with a more aggressive swing without hurting his plate discipline. He's found the barrel consistently and still hit .317 in High A, putting him ahead of schedule considering he didn't turn 22 until after the season. His real value is still in his defense, as he's very good at shortstop and will be able to handle the position every day in the majors if necessary. If he can repeat the offensive success he had in 2019 a couple of times, he could become the heir to Carlos Correa at shortstop in Houston, albeit without as much bat. If not, he still profiles well as a utility type.
- Freudis Nova (2020 Age: 20): Nova skipped over short season ball entirely in 2019, going straight from the Gulf Coast League up to Class A Quad Cities and slashing .259/.301/.369 with three home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games. He's much more about projection than current ability, though his ability to hold his own against older pitchers in the Midwest League was a nice sign for his future development. He's begun to tap some gap power, which should grow into over the fence power as he matures, and he makes consistent contact. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and could be a plus defender at third base if he has to move there, which certainly buys the bat time to develop. He'll play all of 2020 at 20 years old with the chance to break out in High A.
- Grae Kessinger (2020 Age: 22): Kessinger was a really interesting second round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019 because almost the entirety of his value came from 30 game stretch in SEC play where he slashed .405/.472/.556 against college baseball's toughest competition. After being drafted, he slashed .232/.333/.308 with a pair of home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 36/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Tri-City and Class A Quad Cities. There's no question about Kessinger's hit tool, as he has proven he can control the strike zone and make quality contact against any level of advanced pitching, but he doesn't provide much else as of yet. There's not much power to speak of beyond some doubles and triples power, he doesn't run particularly well, and he might be a better fit for second base than for shortstop. If he can add a little pop, he has a shot at landing a starting second base job down the line, though otherwise he profiles pretty straightforwardly as a utility infielder.
- Luis Santana (2020 Age: 20-21): 2019 was a bit of a step back for Santana after he slashed .325/.430/.481 in 2017 and .348/.446/.471 in 2018, though he's still young and doesn't turn 21 until July. 2019 was also Santana's first year in the Astros organization after being acquired in the J.D. Davis trade, and he slashed .257/.337/.329 with two home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games between short season Tri-City and AA Corpus Christi. It was a bit of a weird season for him, as he actually started the season up at AA, skipping multiple levels in the process, before being sent all the way back down to short season ball after slashing .228/.333/.263 in 18 games. He's just 5'8", but he plays hard and gets the most out of what he has, employing great plate discipline and feel for the barrel which makes what little power he has play up. I was obviously a bit more confident in him before his so-so 2019, but I still like him as a prospect with some upside and the ability to be a future second baseman, perhaps even a starter if he can get back on track. The Astros know a thing or two about undersized second basemen.
- Keep an eye on: Alex De Goti
Outfield
- Ronnie Dawson (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros have a deep group of fringy outfielders in the upper minors between Dawson, Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, and Stephen Wrenn, though Dawson is the most interesting and he'll get the writeup. Drafted in the second round out of Ohio State in 2016, he's struggled more and more with strikeouts as he's moved through the minors and he slashed .207/.313/.385 with 17 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 152/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock in 2019. He has good solid power in his left handed swing that has produced 14, 16, and 17 home runs over the last three seasons and more than 20 doubles in each, though he also struck out 110, 130, and 152 times, respectively. That makes it hard to project him getting regular playing time in the big leagues, though with his combination of power and speed, he might stick out just a hair above the other guys at his level, at least for now.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Jordan Brewer (2020 Age: 22-23): Brewer was the Astros' third round pick out of Michigan in 2019, though he slashed just .130/.161/.185 with a home run and a 6/2 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in his pro debut after a long run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt. Though he performed well in the Big 10 and will turn 23 in August, Brewer is actually a bit more about projection than current ability, as he's raw around most of his game. He shows some power and lots of speed, giving him the chance to be an impact player if everything develops right. He does need to work on his plate discipline and finding the barrel against pro pitching, which he had a tough time doing in his brief pro debut, and he could use some refinements to better deploy his speed in the outfield and stick as a center fielder. That's the upside of a 15-20 homer bat with speed and defense, but it also comes with more risk than the typical college performer.
- Colin Barber (2020 Age: 19): Barber was drafted in the fourth round, right after Brewer, out of a Chico, California high school in 2019, then proceeded to hit .263/.387/.394 with two home runs and a 29/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. As a high school bat, he's understandably raw, and his pro debut was more about learning to navigate pro pitching than it was about immediately hitting for impact. While he did have his share of strikeouts, he also drew his fair share of walks and got on base at a .387 clip, so we can call it a success in that regard. The next step for Barber, who will be just 19 for all of 2020, will be to start tapping the power in his quick left handed swing, which he certainly has the ability to do. It will take some time though and I wouldn't expect him to be knocking on the door to the majors any time soon.
- Keep an eye on: Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, Ross Adolph, Alex McKenna, Kenedy Corona, Rainier Rivas
Starting Pitching
- Forrest Whitley (2020 Age: 22): Whitley, a first round pick out of Alamo Heights High School in San Antonio in 2016, has been the most enigmatic prospect in the system ever since. His first full season in 2017 went about as well as possible, as he posted a 2.83 ERA and a 143/34 strikeout to walk ratio while reaching AA at just 19 years old, but his 2018 and 2019 seasons saw far from the same success. He missed most of 2018 for a combination of a drug suspension and nagging oblique problems, then pitched poorly in 2019 while missing time with shoulder problems. Overall, he had a 7.99 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League, High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. With all those strikeouts, the stuff clearly wasn't the problem, but his previously solid-average command faded to well below average as he struggled to harness his explosive stuff. At his best, he sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds not one but two of the best breaking balls in the system in a curve and a slider, and his changeup has improved to the point where it too is a true out pitch. That all comes from a 6'7" frame that makes it tough to hit, so if he can get back to throwing strikes like he's capable of, he has true ace upside. The shoulder and command problems are certainly worrisome, though, and unfortunately there's still the chance he busts without ever becoming more than a back-end starter. I certainly would not give up on him yet though, and a shallow Houston rotation gives him every chance to make the big league club out of spring training if he starts throwing strikes again.
- Jose Urquidy (2020 Age: 24-25): We've all seen enough of Jose Urquidy to know exactly who he is, but he's technically still a prospect. In 2019, he burst onto the scene with a 4.46 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 134/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, and he filled in effectively in the Houston rotation with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 40/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings – plus ten innings of one run ball and twelve strikeouts to two walks in the playoffs, including a dominant World Series Game Four win in Washington. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a decent curveball, but his changeup made him tough to square up as he placed it wherever he wanted it and sent batters flailing. That command also helps the rest of his stuff play up, and even with Lance McCullers returning and a bevy of prospects fighting for those last two spots in the rotation, Urquidy has the inside track and should stick as an Anibal Sanchez-type #4 starter.
- Bryan Abreu (2020 Age: 23): Abreu went from hard-throwing nobody in 2017 to legitimate impact prospect in 2018 by posting a 1.49 ERA and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio, then took another step forward by handling AA in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 126/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.1 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi, and he also had a successful MLB debut by posting a 1.04 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings for the Astros, which helped him crack the team's ALCS roster. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a slider that can be sharp at times, but his real bread and butter is a power, downer curveball that's just about impossible to square up. His command comes and goes and his changeup needs work, but with the chance to crack the Houston rotation out of spring training, you can bet he'll be focusing hard on those two things over the offseason and in spring training. If he can improve one of the two, he can probably be a good starter, and if not, he still profiles well in the bullpen at present with that fastball/curveball combination.
- Brandon Bielak (2020 Age: 24): Bielak was an eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, but he held a 1.91 ERA and a 173/44 strikeout to walk ratio between his pro debut and his first full season, putting himself firmly on the prospect map. He then effectively tackled the upper levels in 2019, posting a 4.22 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock. He has no clear strengths or weaknesses, instead attacking hitters with a low 90's fastball and three good secondary pitches, commanding it all well but not to the point where you could call him a command artist. Even though he doesn't have Abreu's curveball or Urquidy's changeup and command, his lack of exploitable weaknesses means it all adds up to a well-rounded product that should fit well in the back half of the rotation in the near future if he can break through.
- Cristian Javier (2020 Age: 23): Nobody knew who Javier was when he signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, when he was already 18 years old, but they certainly do now after he's dominated literally everywhere he's gone with a career 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 33.8% strikeout rate over nearly 400 innings. In 2019, Javier posted a 1.74 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 170/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings at High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. Watching him pitch, nothing really stands out as remarkable, but hitters just can't seem to square him up. His fastball sits around 90 and can bump a bit higher, but its high spin rate makes it seem almost "invisible" leading to tons of swings and misses and pop outs. He mixes in a pair of good breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, and while his changeup isn't plus, it's coming along as well. His command comes and goes, but he's done a good enough job holding down the strike zone to where it hasn't been an issue yet. Overall, it's kind of a boom/bust profile at the major league level, but it will be really interesting to see if Javier can make that final leap into the big league rotation or if he ends up getting knocked to the bullpen, where his invisible fastball could be deadly.
- Tyler Ivey (2020 Age: 23-24): Due to the depth of starting pitching at the top of this system, Ivey is most likely ticketed for the bullpen, but he was so dominant in a small sample in 2019 that it's hard to rule him out just yet. His season got off to a bit of a slow start, as he was suspended briefly in May for using a foreign substance on his glove, then he missed a month and a half with elbow problems, but he returned in July and finished with a 1.38 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at AA Corpus Christi with some rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at High A Fayetteville. He's a semi-hometown player who grew up on the east side of the DFW Metroplex, and he attended Texas A&M and Grayson Community College before being drafted in the third round in 2017. He has a bit of a funky delivery, but he's athletic enough to still throw strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball, big curveball, slider, and changeup, and he's seldom been hit hard as a pro. The injury in 2019 probably puts him a bit behind some of the other arms on this list, but a healthy and successful 2020 could put him into the thick of the rotation conversation late in the season should somebody falter or get hurt.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 23): Garcia didn't sign until he was 20 years old in 2017, but he's taken his $10,000 signing bonus and hit the ground running. After posting a 2.00 ERA and a 98/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he put up a 2.98 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 168/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville in 2019, adding a pair of dominant starts in the Carolina League playoffs to push him to 189 strikeouts on the season. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondary pitches, highlighted by a swing and miss changeup, though his command is fairly inconsistent. Given all the progress he made in 2019 stuff-wise, 2020 will be the year to focus on that command, and his current trajectory points to a spot somewhere in the back of the Houston rotation in 2021. If his command stalls, he could still profile in the bullpen by focusing on one of his breaking balls to play off his velocity.
- Peter Solomon (2020 Age: 23): Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, seven rounds before his teammate Brandon Bielak, and like Bielak he had a strong first full season in the Houston organization with a 2.32 ERA and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio. However, after allowing two runs on seven hits and four walks with 14 strikeouts in his first 7.2 innings at High A Fayetteville in 2019, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Solomon is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and while his command held him back in college, he improved that significantly in 2018 and was filling up the strike zone with average command. The stuff is good enough for him to be an impact starter, and maintaining the gains he made with his command will be absolutely imperative to making that projection become a reality. Everybody responds differently to surgery, but if he loses the strike zone again like he did in college, he probably profiles in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Rogelio Armenteros, Brett Conine, Chad Donato, Cody Deason, Jairo Solis, Hunter Brown, Jayson Schroeder
Relief Pitching
- Enoli Paredes (2020 Age: 24): Paredes has moved quietly through this system, but it's hard not to notice him after he posted a 2.78 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. He's a skinny 5'11" right hander with a quick arm, one that produces low to mid 90's fastballs as a starter, and it's easy to see him sitting around 95-98 when he eventually becomes a full time reliever. He also adds a good slider that looks like a plus pitch at times, and out of the bullpen it could be consistently plus. His command is so-so, and I'm surprised the Astros have left him in the rotation for this long, but he has high upside as a very valuable reliever.
- Jojanse Torres (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros are known for growing prospects out of nowhere, something Torres completely embodies as an international signee who didn't pitch professionally until he was almost 23 years old. He skipped a couple levels and spent 2019 in A ball, dominating to the tune of a 1.71 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, which mid level hitters had no chance of hitting. Like many other Astros prospects, his command is still a work in progress, and that (combined with the fact that he'll be 25 in August) likely makes him a reliever, especially in this system deep in pitching. If moved to the 'pen, he could be up to 100 MPH with his fastball and sharpen that slider without worrying so much about command, and he could rocket up to the big leagues.
- Nivaldo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 23): Rodriguez, like pretty much every other arm in this system, came from absolutely nowhere, but his breakout 2019 gives the Astros yet another arm to figure into their long term pitching picture. In 2019, he posted a 2.40 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 114/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville, though unlike many of the other arms in this system, he doesn't throw all that hard and sits in the low 90's with his fastball. He's derived his success from his excellent curveball, one that's right behind Bryan Abreu's as one of the best in the system, and that pitch alone gives him the floor of a middle reliever. A starter for most of 2019, the Astros shifted him to the bullpen in August, though I'm not sure if that was a permanent move or just for load management. Either way, his combination of low velocity and decent command means it'll be tough to remain a starter, especially in this system, and he'll probably be better off relying on that curveball out of the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Cionel Perez, Riley Ferrell, Willy Collado, Shawn Dubin, R.J. Freure, Jose Alberto Rivera
Even more impressive than their pitching depth is how they've built that depth – many of their best prospects came from the international market and signed for pennies on the dollar, and Javier, Garcia, Rodriguez, and Torres combined to sign for just $50,000. Throw in Urquidy, Abreu, and Armenteros, and that number only rises to $170,000 for eight legitimate pitching prospects, or about slot value for an eighth or ninth round draft prospect.
The story is very different on the hitting side. With Kyle Tucker graduated and Seth Beer in Arizona, there are very few impact prospects at the plate, and that makes breakouts from Abraham Toro and Jeremy Pena perhaps the best thing to happen to the system this year. Unfortunately, Toro and Pena are probably the only position players to significantly outplay their projections so far, and it's a light group overall.
Affiliates: AAA Round Rock Express, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Fayetteville Woodpeckers, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, short season Tri-City ValleyCats, complex level GCL and DSL Astros
Catcher
- Garrett Stubbs (2020 Age: 26-27): Stubbs, who will turn 27 in May, is pretty unremarkable as a prospect, but he does the little things right and with Robinson Chirinos departed via free agency, he has a chance to take over as the backup to Martin Maldonado in 2020. He was an eighth round pick out of USC back in 2015, then hit well in his first full season in 2016 (.304/.391/.469) to set himself up as one of the system's better catching prospects. He hasn't hit all that much since then, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.332/.397 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at AAA Round Rock, also hitting .200/.282/.286 with a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 19 major league games. He doesn't hit for a ton of impact, but he puts the ball in play regularly and is tough to strike out, which should help him be at least a competent hitter at the major league level. Since he's almost certainly ticketed for a backup role, that's all that's really needed, as his defense is good behind the plate and he'll have no problem handling major league pitching from that end. He also runs pretty well for a catcher, which certainly doesn't hurt. His brother, C.J., is also a catcher and was the Astros' tenth round pick in 2019 and hit .249/.340/.459 in his successful pro debut.
- Korey Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): The Astros surprised some people by drafting Lee at the end of the first round in 2019, as many projected the Cal catcher to go in the back half of the top 100 picks or perhaps even later. He hit well in his pro debut, slashing .268/.359/.371 with three home runs and a 49/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at short season Tri-City. He did that after putting up a big breakout in his junior season at Cal, in which he began to tap into his power much more consistently while maintaining good control of the strike zone. His lack of a track record means he comes with more risk than the typical first round college selection, though if Lee can continue on his upward trajectory, he could be a legitimate starting catcher with the pop to hit 20-25 home runs annually. Defensively, he has a cannon arm and is coming along with his glovework, but he needs more work there.
- Keep an eye on: Lorenzo Quintana, Michael Papierski, C.J. Stubbs, Nathan Perry
Corner Infield
- Abraham Toro (2020 Age: 23): Given his lack of real defensive value, Toro's bat has been fringy for a few years now, until he broke out in 2019 by slashing .324/.411/.527 with 17 home runs and an 82/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, then hit .218/.303/.385 with two home runs and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 major league games. He generates a lot of hard contact from his slightly uppercut swing, and his patient approach at the plate enables him to find his pitches and drive them. Together, that's an outlook of 15-25 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages, which should be enough to profile wherever he ends up defensively. However, he's blocked in Houston by Alex Bregman at third base, by Yuli Gurriel at first base, and by Yordan Alvarez at DH. He's probably best off being traded somewhere he can have a path to starting, but even in Houston he should be a valuable role player who can pick up starts at multiple positions spelling the regular starters.
- J.J. Matijevic (2020 Age: 24): The Astros took Matijevic in the second competitive balance round out of Arizona in 2017, though because he's a borderline defensive liability, all of the pressure is on his bat. He slashed .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs in his first full season in 2018, boosting his stock, but his rough 2019 pushed his stock in the other direction. A second failed non-PED drug test knocked him out for a month and a half, and when he was on the field, his bat played closer to average, as he slashed .251/.319/.441 with eleven home runs and a 101/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi. He's got some raw power from the left side, though his hit tool has been inconsistent and he hasn't quite gotten to it as consistently as perhaps he'd like. He's also a better hitter against right handed pitching, which combined with his lack of defensive value, means he might be ticketed to more of a platoon/bench role in the majors. He has experience in both the outfield and first base.
- Jake Adams (2020 Age: 24): Adams led all of Division I with 29 home runs for Iowa in 2017, but he lasted until the sixth round because power was just about all he offered. Fortunately, that power has played up, and he slashed .248/.311/.446 with 22 home runs and a 117/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. While he still has swing and miss in his game, the strikeouts haven't been as big of an issue as perhaps they could have been, though he'll probably have to continue to refine his approach a bit in order to make it to the majors. If he does, he could be a nice platoon option with Matijevic as a right handed hitter.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Jones, Colton Shaver, Joe Perez, Raider Uceta
Middle Infield
- Jeremy Pena (2020 Age: 22): The Astros drafted Pena in the third round in 2018 out of the University of Maine for his glove, hoping that he could just manage to hit enough to work his way up as a utility infielder. However, he ended up hitting for much more impact than originally expected, and in 2019 he slashed .303/.385/.440 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's begun to tap into it more with a more aggressive swing without hurting his plate discipline. He's found the barrel consistently and still hit .317 in High A, putting him ahead of schedule considering he didn't turn 22 until after the season. His real value is still in his defense, as he's very good at shortstop and will be able to handle the position every day in the majors if necessary. If he can repeat the offensive success he had in 2019 a couple of times, he could become the heir to Carlos Correa at shortstop in Houston, albeit without as much bat. If not, he still profiles well as a utility type.
- Freudis Nova (2020 Age: 20): Nova skipped over short season ball entirely in 2019, going straight from the Gulf Coast League up to Class A Quad Cities and slashing .259/.301/.369 with three home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games. He's much more about projection than current ability, though his ability to hold his own against older pitchers in the Midwest League was a nice sign for his future development. He's begun to tap some gap power, which should grow into over the fence power as he matures, and he makes consistent contact. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and could be a plus defender at third base if he has to move there, which certainly buys the bat time to develop. He'll play all of 2020 at 20 years old with the chance to break out in High A.
- Grae Kessinger (2020 Age: 22): Kessinger was a really interesting second round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019 because almost the entirety of his value came from 30 game stretch in SEC play where he slashed .405/.472/.556 against college baseball's toughest competition. After being drafted, he slashed .232/.333/.308 with a pair of home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 36/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Tri-City and Class A Quad Cities. There's no question about Kessinger's hit tool, as he has proven he can control the strike zone and make quality contact against any level of advanced pitching, but he doesn't provide much else as of yet. There's not much power to speak of beyond some doubles and triples power, he doesn't run particularly well, and he might be a better fit for second base than for shortstop. If he can add a little pop, he has a shot at landing a starting second base job down the line, though otherwise he profiles pretty straightforwardly as a utility infielder.
- Luis Santana (2020 Age: 20-21): 2019 was a bit of a step back for Santana after he slashed .325/.430/.481 in 2017 and .348/.446/.471 in 2018, though he's still young and doesn't turn 21 until July. 2019 was also Santana's first year in the Astros organization after being acquired in the J.D. Davis trade, and he slashed .257/.337/.329 with two home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games between short season Tri-City and AA Corpus Christi. It was a bit of a weird season for him, as he actually started the season up at AA, skipping multiple levels in the process, before being sent all the way back down to short season ball after slashing .228/.333/.263 in 18 games. He's just 5'8", but he plays hard and gets the most out of what he has, employing great plate discipline and feel for the barrel which makes what little power he has play up. I was obviously a bit more confident in him before his so-so 2019, but I still like him as a prospect with some upside and the ability to be a future second baseman, perhaps even a starter if he can get back on track. The Astros know a thing or two about undersized second basemen.
- Keep an eye on: Alex De Goti
Outfield
- Ronnie Dawson (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros have a deep group of fringy outfielders in the upper minors between Dawson, Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, and Stephen Wrenn, though Dawson is the most interesting and he'll get the writeup. Drafted in the second round out of Ohio State in 2016, he's struggled more and more with strikeouts as he's moved through the minors and he slashed .207/.313/.385 with 17 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 152/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock in 2019. He has good solid power in his left handed swing that has produced 14, 16, and 17 home runs over the last three seasons and more than 20 doubles in each, though he also struck out 110, 130, and 152 times, respectively. That makes it hard to project him getting regular playing time in the big leagues, though with his combination of power and speed, he might stick out just a hair above the other guys at his level, at least for now.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Jordan Brewer (2020 Age: 22-23): Brewer was the Astros' third round pick out of Michigan in 2019, though he slashed just .130/.161/.185 with a home run and a 6/2 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in his pro debut after a long run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt. Though he performed well in the Big 10 and will turn 23 in August, Brewer is actually a bit more about projection than current ability, as he's raw around most of his game. He shows some power and lots of speed, giving him the chance to be an impact player if everything develops right. He does need to work on his plate discipline and finding the barrel against pro pitching, which he had a tough time doing in his brief pro debut, and he could use some refinements to better deploy his speed in the outfield and stick as a center fielder. That's the upside of a 15-20 homer bat with speed and defense, but it also comes with more risk than the typical college performer.
- Colin Barber (2020 Age: 19): Barber was drafted in the fourth round, right after Brewer, out of a Chico, California high school in 2019, then proceeded to hit .263/.387/.394 with two home runs and a 29/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. As a high school bat, he's understandably raw, and his pro debut was more about learning to navigate pro pitching than it was about immediately hitting for impact. While he did have his share of strikeouts, he also drew his fair share of walks and got on base at a .387 clip, so we can call it a success in that regard. The next step for Barber, who will be just 19 for all of 2020, will be to start tapping the power in his quick left handed swing, which he certainly has the ability to do. It will take some time though and I wouldn't expect him to be knocking on the door to the majors any time soon.
- Keep an eye on: Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, Ross Adolph, Alex McKenna, Kenedy Corona, Rainier Rivas
Starting Pitching
- Forrest Whitley (2020 Age: 22): Whitley, a first round pick out of Alamo Heights High School in San Antonio in 2016, has been the most enigmatic prospect in the system ever since. His first full season in 2017 went about as well as possible, as he posted a 2.83 ERA and a 143/34 strikeout to walk ratio while reaching AA at just 19 years old, but his 2018 and 2019 seasons saw far from the same success. He missed most of 2018 for a combination of a drug suspension and nagging oblique problems, then pitched poorly in 2019 while missing time with shoulder problems. Overall, he had a 7.99 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League, High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. With all those strikeouts, the stuff clearly wasn't the problem, but his previously solid-average command faded to well below average as he struggled to harness his explosive stuff. At his best, he sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds not one but two of the best breaking balls in the system in a curve and a slider, and his changeup has improved to the point where it too is a true out pitch. That all comes from a 6'7" frame that makes it tough to hit, so if he can get back to throwing strikes like he's capable of, he has true ace upside. The shoulder and command problems are certainly worrisome, though, and unfortunately there's still the chance he busts without ever becoming more than a back-end starter. I certainly would not give up on him yet though, and a shallow Houston rotation gives him every chance to make the big league club out of spring training if he starts throwing strikes again.
- Jose Urquidy (2020 Age: 24-25): We've all seen enough of Jose Urquidy to know exactly who he is, but he's technically still a prospect. In 2019, he burst onto the scene with a 4.46 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 134/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, and he filled in effectively in the Houston rotation with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 40/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings – plus ten innings of one run ball and twelve strikeouts to two walks in the playoffs, including a dominant World Series Game Four win in Washington. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a decent curveball, but his changeup made him tough to square up as he placed it wherever he wanted it and sent batters flailing. That command also helps the rest of his stuff play up, and even with Lance McCullers returning and a bevy of prospects fighting for those last two spots in the rotation, Urquidy has the inside track and should stick as an Anibal Sanchez-type #4 starter.
- Bryan Abreu (2020 Age: 23): Abreu went from hard-throwing nobody in 2017 to legitimate impact prospect in 2018 by posting a 1.49 ERA and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio, then took another step forward by handling AA in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 126/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.1 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi, and he also had a successful MLB debut by posting a 1.04 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings for the Astros, which helped him crack the team's ALCS roster. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a slider that can be sharp at times, but his real bread and butter is a power, downer curveball that's just about impossible to square up. His command comes and goes and his changeup needs work, but with the chance to crack the Houston rotation out of spring training, you can bet he'll be focusing hard on those two things over the offseason and in spring training. If he can improve one of the two, he can probably be a good starter, and if not, he still profiles well in the bullpen at present with that fastball/curveball combination.
- Brandon Bielak (2020 Age: 24): Bielak was an eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, but he held a 1.91 ERA and a 173/44 strikeout to walk ratio between his pro debut and his first full season, putting himself firmly on the prospect map. He then effectively tackled the upper levels in 2019, posting a 4.22 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock. He has no clear strengths or weaknesses, instead attacking hitters with a low 90's fastball and three good secondary pitches, commanding it all well but not to the point where you could call him a command artist. Even though he doesn't have Abreu's curveball or Urquidy's changeup and command, his lack of exploitable weaknesses means it all adds up to a well-rounded product that should fit well in the back half of the rotation in the near future if he can break through.
- Cristian Javier (2020 Age: 23): Nobody knew who Javier was when he signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, when he was already 18 years old, but they certainly do now after he's dominated literally everywhere he's gone with a career 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 33.8% strikeout rate over nearly 400 innings. In 2019, Javier posted a 1.74 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 170/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings at High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. Watching him pitch, nothing really stands out as remarkable, but hitters just can't seem to square him up. His fastball sits around 90 and can bump a bit higher, but its high spin rate makes it seem almost "invisible" leading to tons of swings and misses and pop outs. He mixes in a pair of good breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, and while his changeup isn't plus, it's coming along as well. His command comes and goes, but he's done a good enough job holding down the strike zone to where it hasn't been an issue yet. Overall, it's kind of a boom/bust profile at the major league level, but it will be really interesting to see if Javier can make that final leap into the big league rotation or if he ends up getting knocked to the bullpen, where his invisible fastball could be deadly.
- Tyler Ivey (2020 Age: 23-24): Due to the depth of starting pitching at the top of this system, Ivey is most likely ticketed for the bullpen, but he was so dominant in a small sample in 2019 that it's hard to rule him out just yet. His season got off to a bit of a slow start, as he was suspended briefly in May for using a foreign substance on his glove, then he missed a month and a half with elbow problems, but he returned in July and finished with a 1.38 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at AA Corpus Christi with some rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at High A Fayetteville. He's a semi-hometown player who grew up on the east side of the DFW Metroplex, and he attended Texas A&M and Grayson Community College before being drafted in the third round in 2017. He has a bit of a funky delivery, but he's athletic enough to still throw strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball, big curveball, slider, and changeup, and he's seldom been hit hard as a pro. The injury in 2019 probably puts him a bit behind some of the other arms on this list, but a healthy and successful 2020 could put him into the thick of the rotation conversation late in the season should somebody falter or get hurt.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 23): Garcia didn't sign until he was 20 years old in 2017, but he's taken his $10,000 signing bonus and hit the ground running. After posting a 2.00 ERA and a 98/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he put up a 2.98 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 168/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville in 2019, adding a pair of dominant starts in the Carolina League playoffs to push him to 189 strikeouts on the season. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondary pitches, highlighted by a swing and miss changeup, though his command is fairly inconsistent. Given all the progress he made in 2019 stuff-wise, 2020 will be the year to focus on that command, and his current trajectory points to a spot somewhere in the back of the Houston rotation in 2021. If his command stalls, he could still profile in the bullpen by focusing on one of his breaking balls to play off his velocity.
- Peter Solomon (2020 Age: 23): Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, seven rounds before his teammate Brandon Bielak, and like Bielak he had a strong first full season in the Houston organization with a 2.32 ERA and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio. However, after allowing two runs on seven hits and four walks with 14 strikeouts in his first 7.2 innings at High A Fayetteville in 2019, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Solomon is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and while his command held him back in college, he improved that significantly in 2018 and was filling up the strike zone with average command. The stuff is good enough for him to be an impact starter, and maintaining the gains he made with his command will be absolutely imperative to making that projection become a reality. Everybody responds differently to surgery, but if he loses the strike zone again like he did in college, he probably profiles in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Rogelio Armenteros, Brett Conine, Chad Donato, Cody Deason, Jairo Solis, Hunter Brown, Jayson Schroeder
Relief Pitching
- Enoli Paredes (2020 Age: 24): Paredes has moved quietly through this system, but it's hard not to notice him after he posted a 2.78 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. He's a skinny 5'11" right hander with a quick arm, one that produces low to mid 90's fastballs as a starter, and it's easy to see him sitting around 95-98 when he eventually becomes a full time reliever. He also adds a good slider that looks like a plus pitch at times, and out of the bullpen it could be consistently plus. His command is so-so, and I'm surprised the Astros have left him in the rotation for this long, but he has high upside as a very valuable reliever.
- Jojanse Torres (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros are known for growing prospects out of nowhere, something Torres completely embodies as an international signee who didn't pitch professionally until he was almost 23 years old. He skipped a couple levels and spent 2019 in A ball, dominating to the tune of a 1.71 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, which mid level hitters had no chance of hitting. Like many other Astros prospects, his command is still a work in progress, and that (combined with the fact that he'll be 25 in August) likely makes him a reliever, especially in this system deep in pitching. If moved to the 'pen, he could be up to 100 MPH with his fastball and sharpen that slider without worrying so much about command, and he could rocket up to the big leagues.
- Nivaldo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 23): Rodriguez, like pretty much every other arm in this system, came from absolutely nowhere, but his breakout 2019 gives the Astros yet another arm to figure into their long term pitching picture. In 2019, he posted a 2.40 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 114/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville, though unlike many of the other arms in this system, he doesn't throw all that hard and sits in the low 90's with his fastball. He's derived his success from his excellent curveball, one that's right behind Bryan Abreu's as one of the best in the system, and that pitch alone gives him the floor of a middle reliever. A starter for most of 2019, the Astros shifted him to the bullpen in August, though I'm not sure if that was a permanent move or just for load management. Either way, his combination of low velocity and decent command means it'll be tough to remain a starter, especially in this system, and he'll probably be better off relying on that curveball out of the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Cionel Perez, Riley Ferrell, Willy Collado, Shawn Dubin, R.J. Freure, Jose Alberto Rivera
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