1-14: 2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State
2-50: OF Evan Carter, Elizabethton HS (TN)
3-86: RHP Tekoah Roby, Pine Forest HS (FL)
4-115: LHP Dylan MacLean, Central Catholic HS (OR)
5-145: SS Thomas Saggese, Carlsbad HS (CA)
If prospect rankings were the be-all, end-all, this draft would look pretty ugly for the Rangers, because only two cracked my top 160, only three cracked MLB Pipeline's top 200, and second rounder Evan Carter didn't even make Baseball America's top 500. Fortunately, rankings don't actually mean a thing once you hit the baseball field, and the Rangers decided these were the five guys that would fit best in their farm system. Some of them I like, some I'm more iffy on, but it's a very on-brand group nonetheless. Interestingly, they also picked four high schoolers, a number only the Padres could match, but even San Diego had an extra pick and grabbed two college players to Texas' one. It was a unique class, for sure, so let's see how it turned out for them.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-14: 2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (my rank: 40)
The lone college hitter in this group, Foscue is an extremely safe bet to balance out the boom/bust risk of the other four. He's been as consistent (and as productive) as they come for the Bulldogs over the last two seasons, hitting .329/.407/.555 with 16 home runs and a 35/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 games. Despite a bit of a noisy setup, he finds the barrel extremely easily from a simple swing and at least with metal bats, he's shown significant impact. The question with Foscue, though, is how much of that impact will translate to wood. He hit just .255/.288/.362 in 14 games with the US Collegiate National Team, and while 14 games is too small a sample size to draw any real conclusions, it certainly didn't help. The Huntsville, Alabama native isn't the world's biggest or most athletic guy, but his elite plate discipline and barrel control have helped him play above his tools to this point. Does he continue to hit for impact with wood bats? I definitely think so. It's probably a 15-25 home run bat with high on-base percentages at best, which the Rangers will certainly take, but I also see a good chance he ends up more of a decent player than anything else. That's a great profile in the back of the first round or comp round, but here in the middle of the first round, it just strikes me as a little light. Still, you can't argue with the SEC production. He signed for $3.25 million (about slot value for pick #20), which was about $790,000 below slot at #14. Pre-draft profile here.
2-50: OF Evan Carter, Elizabethton HS, TN (unranked)
This was perhaps the most surprising pick of the draft outside of the first round. Carter went unranked on MLB Pipeline's top 200 and Baseball America's top 500 prospects, yet the Rangers liked him enough to select him 50th overall. Upon further investigation, he's a really interesting player. Coming from Elizabethton High School on the edge of the Smoky Mountains, Carter hasn't been seen much outside of the Northeast Tennessee high school ranks. Rangers fans might be happy to hear who he reminds me of: Zac Veen. Carter is a big guy at a listed 6'4", bringing plenty of loft and leverage from a projectable left handed swing. Personally, I think the only thing keeping him from being more well-known was not skill, but exposure. Since he wasn't seen much on the showcase circuit, it's hard to project on his hit tool, but I think that even adequate performance at summer events might have made him a household name in the scouting community. He's young, too, not turning 18 until August, and as he grows into that big frame, I could see him ending up with plus power. For now, the Rangers are buying the ~picture~ of a baseball player, since he absolutely looks like one with that swing. From there, they'll try to mold him into a real impact hitter with his high upside. He signed away from a Duke commitment for $1.25 million, which was about $220,000 below slot.
3-86: RHP Tekoah Roby, Pine Forest HS, FL (my rank: 149)
Florida produces a ton of prep talent from its major urban areas of Miami, Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville, but Roby comes from across the state over in Pensacola. He's an athletic 6'1" righty with a really loose arm, currently sitting in the low 90's with his fastball but steadily adding velocity and getting as high as 94 at times. He spins a really nice curveball that he's been getting more consistent with, and he's working on a changeup. On top of that, he's a good strike thrower, getting more consistent with his release point. Overall, it's not an overwhelming right now product, but the Rangers love the way his arm works and can easily project some added velocity once he gets a little more efficient with his weight transfer from his lower half. While most lists had him well outside of the top 100, a lot of evaluators thought he had a chance to rise this spring with the way he's trending, and the Rangers clearly bought in. It's a classic Rangers projection pick, and he should fit into this system really well. It cost them $775,000 to buy him out of a Troy commitment, which was $75,300 above slot.
4-115: LHP Dylan MacLean, Central Catholic HS, OR (unranked)
The Portland area boasted Phillies first rounder Mick Abel in this draft, but he wasn't the only exciting arm in the PDX. Over at Central Catholic High School, Dylan MacLean might not throw nearly as hard, but he's an interesting arm nonetheless. His fastball isn't anything special, sitting in the mid 80's for the most part, but he touched 92 in bullpens this spring and has a lot of room to fill out his 6'3" frame. There's a solid curveball as well with good top to bottom shape, and he adds in a changeup as a third pitch. Everything comes from a high overhand delivery that puts good angle on the ball, and he's a relatively polished strike thrower as well. It takes a lot of imagination to project on MacLean, because even if the velocity gains he made in bullpens this spring were for real, he's still left with current fringe-average velocity at best. He'll need to continue to add velocity to have a shot at a big league rotation, but the good news is that as he fills out that 6'3" frame, he has plenty of other starter's traits to work with. Additionally, with a July birthday, he's relatively young for a high school senior and has more time to physically develop. The Rangers bought him out of his Washington commitment for $1.2 million, which was just about $700,000 above slot, so they clearly are all in.
5-145: SS Thomas Saggese, Carlsbad HS, CA (unranked)
Staying on the West Coast, the Rangers finished off their draft with a fourth straight high schooler, San Diego-area infielder Thomas Saggese. He's the kind of guy that plays above his tools, consistently out-grinding his competition and getting great results on the field. He's routinely on time with his right handed swing and makes very consistent, hard contact, though that swing might need to be reworked a little bit because it's pretty short and opposite field-oriented. He still gets plenty of natural leverage and while he's not the biggest guy in the world at a listed six feet tall, he could grow into average power down the line to go with good on-base percentages. Defensively, he doesn't necessarily have the explosive athleticism a lot of teams look for in a shortstop, but he's proven more than capable there so far and has a chance to stick if he continues to improve like he has. Saggese has already proven to be a tough kid who can overcome adversity, having worked through and overcome PTSD after surviving a school shooting in elementary school. It's an interesting pick at the back of the draft for sure, one that could provide 10-15 home runs a year with good on-base percentages down the line – if he sticks at shortstop, that's a pretty attractive profile. Committed to Pepperdine, he instead signed for $800,000 ($424,800 above slot) to join the Rangers.
Undrafted: C Brady Smith, Florida (unranked)
Smith, the biggest splash the Rangers made in the undrafted free agent market, gives them a second player from the Florida Panhandle. He's shown a broad skill set at Florida, though to this point, he hasn't really broken out in any individual area. Smith hit .267/.362/.397 over his first two seasons for the Gators but was off to a slow start this year, slashing just .167/.235/.367 with two home runs and an 11/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games. He produces solid raw power from a compact 5'11" frame and a nice swing that gives him plenty of leverage, with a solid enough approach at the plate to get to it in games. He's somewhat of a streakier hitter who hasn't really put up flashy numbers at any point, but he's also been a solid enough performer both in the SEC and in the elite Cape Cod League to inspire confidence that he could be just an adjustment or two away from tapping into something legitimate. Defensively, it's a similar story, as he's shown promise behind the plate but hasn't quite been consistent enough back there to be confident he'll stick. The bat is a lot more enticing if he does catch, where he could profile as a solid backup, but he might have a hard time hitting his way to the bigs if he's forced to play a corner outfield spot or first base, where he's below average.
Undrafted: RHP Josh Stephan, South Grand Prairie HS, TX (unranked)
The Rangers did grab one hometown player in this class. DFW produces plenty of talent every year, and interestingly, it's typically concentrated in kind of the northern Mid-Cities region, kind of in the area between Lewisville and Colleyville/Keller. Don't ask me why, that's just what I noticed. I've noticed a lot less from the southern Mid-Cities, with Hunter Pence representing Arlington and Trevor Story and Kerry Wood representing Irving/Grand Prairie, but the Rangers picked up right hander Josh Stephan from Grand Prairie this time. He's a 6'1" right hander who was committed to play at Stephen F. Austin, typically sitting around 90 with his fastball and bumping a little higher without a ton of effort in his delivery. I couldn't find much additional information on him, so we'll have to see how it goes when he hits pro ball.
Showing posts with label Justin Foscue. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Justin Foscue. Show all posts
Sunday, July 5, 2020
Monday, June 8, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Who Could the Nationals Take at #22?
As a Nationals fan, I've put a lot of thought into the direction I'd like to see the Nationals go at pick #22. Predicting who they will take is pretty much guesswork, but as fans, we can look at the most likely options, choose one to latch onto, and hope. For context, these have been the Nationals' last five first round picks:
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
2019: Jackson Rutledge (junior college RHP)
2018: Mason Denaburg (high school RHP)
2017: Seth Romero (college LHP)
2016: Carter Kieboom (high school SS)
2016: Dane Dunning (college RHP)
Four out of their last five first rounders have been pitchers, and three of those came from college. That's indicative of a longer trend, and if I had gone back another first round pick to 2014 (they didn't have on in 2015), we'd see UNLV righty Erick Fedde. Grabbing pitching early has long been the M.O. for the Rizzo front office, and grabbing pitchers who fall in the draft for various reasons fits even more cleanly. Denaburg fell due to arm troubles and Romero fell because, well, he got kicked out of the University of Houston baseball program, while Fedde was recovering from Tommy John surgery, as was 2012 first rounder Lucas Giolito. With that, there is one clear, clear name that fits the Nationals' draft trends under the Rizzo administration, and it's:
RHP JT Ginn, Mississippi State (full profile here)
This one fits like a glove. Ginn was a power armed prep righty coming out of the Jackson, Mississippi area in 2018, landing with the Dodgers at the 30th overall pick despite a pretty raw overall game. He didn't sign and instead headed across the state to Starkville, where he made every improvement scouts were hoping to see in his freshman season. Ginn maintained the mid 90's velocity that made him famous, but also sharpened his slider into a plus pitch, picked up an above average changeup, improved his command, and smoothed out his delivery. He could have been a top ten pick had he stayed healthy, but he blew out his elbow in his first start and went down with Tommy John surgery. The Nationals likely would have never had a shot at him without the injury, but now they can land a true impact starting pitcher in the back third of the first round.
Now, just because Ginn fits Rizzo's history in the first round, doesn't mean he's a lock or even a favorite to end up a National. He's supposedly a tough sign and would be very content heading back to Mississippi State, and there are a lot of other college arms for the Nationals to pounce on as well. Some of those include:
RHP Cole Wilcox, Georgia (full profile here)
Wilcox was considered one of the top 20-25 prospects in the 2018 draft coming out of high school in the Chattanooga area, but he was firmly committed to Georgia and fell to, coincidentally (or non-coincidentally?), the Nationals in the 37th round and didn't sign. Two years later, he finds himself in roughly the same spot draft stock-wise. He was inconsistent at times as a freshman in 2019, but overall he held his own in the tough SEC and was looking much better in the abbreviated 2020 season. A big righty at 6'5", 230 pounds, he flashes big stuff including a fastball that can approach 100, a hard slider that can flash plus, and a changeup that can do the same. He hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, and he looks like he's still growing into that 6'5" frame, but his command was much better in 2020 and his name was trending up when the season shut down. If the Nationals took Wilcox a second time, it would be a very similar pick to their 2019 first rounder Jackson Rutledge, another big guy with velocity and some rawness in his mechanics.
RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (full profile here)
Another name that was trending up when the season shut down, it's not clear whether Cavalli will still be available when the Nationals pick at #22, but he fits the bill as a hard throwing right hander with improvements still to make. He brings a power fastball in the mid 90's in addition to two above average to plus breaking balls, and he filled up the strike zone a lot more in 2020. Coming from an excellent pitcher's frame and a clean delivery, Cavalli has it all on paper. He has a history of getting hit harder than his stuff says he should, partially owing to his tendency to leave pitches over the plate, but he's moving in the right direction. This is another guy who would be a similar pick to Rutledge with velocity and two plus breaking balls, though Cavalli's delivery is much cleaner.
RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (full profile here)
Cecconi is yet another guy that fits the Nationals' preferences for college arms with upside remaining. He's another big right hander with good fastball velocity and three secondary pitches, though he's yet to really put it all together. The slider especially looks like a plus pitch, and his command seems to be improving, so the Nationals could easily buy into the stuff and frame at #22. To me, it might be a little bit of a reach that early in the draft, especially if a similar pitcher like Cavalli is still on the board, but his upside fits right there with the other names I've mentioned.
Others college arms: RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn), RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina), RHP Chris McMahon (Miami), RHP Bryce Jarvis (Duke)
If I were a betting man (I'm not), I'd put my money on the Nationals taking one of those four: Ginn, Wilcox, Cavalli, or Cecconi. Even if they don't go for a college arm, I think the names that will likely be on the board here, in addition to the Nationals' history, would lead to them staying on the college side and getting a bat. Some of those options for the Nationals could be:
C Dillon Dingler, Ohio State (full profile here)
There are some who think Dingler is in the same class as NC State's Patrick Bailey, who is very likely to go in the top half of the first round. Dingler has always been a good defensive catcher, but after two solid if unspectacular seasons with the bat for the Buckeyes, he homered five times in his last four games before the shut down and sent his name rocketing up boards. His name will start to come into play around the time the Nationals' pick comes around, where he has the upside of a power hitting starting catcher who can also play above average defense behind the plate.
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State (full profile here)
I think Foscue might be a little bit of a reach at this point in the first round, but his name has been picking up steam and the Nationals could very well be the team to bite. He stands out more for his pure hitting ability than for loud tools, but he can certainly hit, with an excellent track record against tough SEC competition. It's more of a safe pick than one that could produce a potential star, but safety means a lot more in this draft.
SS Nick Loftin, Baylor (full profile here)
This would be a similar pick to Foscue, though I prefer Loftin as a prospect. He has better contact ability, a bit less power, and better infield defense than Foscue, and he was doing a better job of tapping his power in the shortened 2020 season. Loftin's name has been mentioned more towards the back of the first round, but he's as steady of a hitter as they come and like Foscue, he'd be a very safe pick.
C/1B Austin Wells, Arizona (full profile here)
This is the one I want the Nationals to take. Despite the Rizzo administration's love of pitching, I've always felt that they've had better luck with hitters, and Austin Wells has the most potent bat that will likely be available at pick #22. He's a career .357/.476/.560 hitter at Arizona and even hit .295/.377/.491 in the elite Cape Cod League, making it very clear that the bat is legit. That's a great combination of power and contact ability from the left side, and since he won't turn 21 until July, he's one of the youngest collegians available. The bat profiles at any position, so it's an added bonus that he has the chance to catch. The word "chance" should be emphasized, though, because he needs a lot of work back there and isn't a lock to stick. Still, I love the bat and if I were picking for the Nationals here, it would be a close call between Wells and Ginn.
Other college bats: 1B Aaron Sabato (UNC), SS Casey Martin (Arkansas), SS Jordan Westburg (Mississippi State)
SS Ed Howard, Mount Carmel HS, IL (full profile here)
While I think it's much more likely that the Nationals will go with a college player, if they were to go the prep route, I think Ed Howard is the most likely. He's a shortstop out of Mount Carmel High School in Chicago, and the former shortstop of the famous Jackie Robinson West Little League team that went to the Little League World Series in 2014. He's a glove-first prospect who will stick at the premium position, but the bat requires more projection. He shows good feel for the barrel and great wiry strength and athleticism that should help him project as an above average hitter all-around, though there isn't currently a carrying tool offensively. Either way, the glove buys the bat time.
LHP Andrew Abbott, Virginia
Lastly, the DC-Maryland-Virginia area is extraordinarily shallow this year, with only one likely draftee, but I wanted to highlight him here (as much as it pains me, a Virginia Tech alum, to write positively about a UVA player). Andrew Abbott is from Republican Grove, Virginia, a rural area about halfway between Lynchburg and the North Carolina line. He's strictly a reliever, but he's been a darn good one for the Cavaliers, striking out 165 batters to 49 walks over career 108.1 innings. He's a fastball/curveball lefty who can run the former into the mid 90's and use the latter to consistently miss bats and finish off strikeouts. His command is average, something you don't often see out of college relievers, and he's built for the late innings with a bulldog mentality on the mound. Abbott certainly won't be in play at the Nationals' first three picks at #22, #55, or #71, but while he might be a bit of a reach at #94, he would fit nicely at #123 and would provide good value if he slips to #153.
Friday, May 1, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Justin Foscue
2B Justin Foscue, Mississippi State
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/2/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .321/.464/.509, 1 SB, 3/15 K/BB in 16 games
For the brief 2020 season, Mississippi State had the best middle infield in college baseball between shortstop Jordan Westburg and second baseman Justin Foscue. Like Westburg, Foscue wasn't an extremely heralded recruit coming out of high school in Huntsville, Alabama, then hit an unremarkable .241/.332/.353 as a freshman in 2018. However, while Westburg significantly boosted his prospect stock through athleticism and projectability, Foscue did so by just plain performing. As a sophomore in 2019, he hit .331/.395/.564 with 14 home runs and a 32/30 strikeout to walk ratio across 67 games, then he kept on rolling with a .321/.464/.509 line in 2020 with five times as many walks (15) as strikeouts (3). In that sense, he and Westburg now enter the 2020 draft as two very different kinds of prospects – Westburg looks like a ballplayer and has the physical tools to succeed, while Foscue has performed at a higher level despite average physical tools.
Foscue is listed at 6' and 203 pounds, with below average speed and average athleticism. It's not the profile that will make traditional scouts jump out of their seats. But few hitters in this range of the draft have performed like Foscue has, and there's reason to believe he'll get the most out of what he has. He sets up from a spread out stance, holding his hands back above his head and his feet out apart. Despite the setup, Foscue employs a pretty simple swing, using his advanced plate discipline and hand eye coordination to find the barrel consistently and drive balls into the gaps and over fences with metal bats. There's little question about his ability to handle advanced pitching, and he finds the barrel consistently enough to be a threat as he moves through pro ball.
The questions do come in when it comes to Foscue's ability to translate offensive impact with wood bats, especially because he's just average at second base and the pressure figures to be on his bat. He hit just .255/.288/.362 in a small, 14 game sample with the US Collegiate National Team, which is certainly not enough to say he'll never hit with wood but it also didn't answer any of those questions. Foscue will need to continually rely on his advanced sense of the game to hit his way up, without getting the same benefit of the doubt that some of the toolsier infielders in this class, like Casey Martin and Jordan Westburg, get.
The good news is that Foscue should hit. You don't hit like he has in the SEC by accident, and the plate discipline numbers only further his cause. At the end of the day, you could be 6'4" and blasting balls into the parking lot in batting practice, but it matters what you do in games. Foscue is a gamer who is known to work hard at his craft, and I like his chances of continuing to hit. The projection probably looks like 15-20 home runs annually at the major league level with good on-base percentages, enough to warrant a starting second base job, though there is a chance the power numbers dip more into the 10-15 range. His name has been picking up some steam lately and what previously looked more like a comp/early second round profile is now being mentioned more and more in the back of the first.
2020 batting practice
Game action in the 2019 College World Series
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 3/2/1999. B/T: R/R
2020 Stats: 2 HR, .321/.464/.509, 1 SB, 3/15 K/BB in 16 games
For the brief 2020 season, Mississippi State had the best middle infield in college baseball between shortstop Jordan Westburg and second baseman Justin Foscue. Like Westburg, Foscue wasn't an extremely heralded recruit coming out of high school in Huntsville, Alabama, then hit an unremarkable .241/.332/.353 as a freshman in 2018. However, while Westburg significantly boosted his prospect stock through athleticism and projectability, Foscue did so by just plain performing. As a sophomore in 2019, he hit .331/.395/.564 with 14 home runs and a 32/30 strikeout to walk ratio across 67 games, then he kept on rolling with a .321/.464/.509 line in 2020 with five times as many walks (15) as strikeouts (3). In that sense, he and Westburg now enter the 2020 draft as two very different kinds of prospects – Westburg looks like a ballplayer and has the physical tools to succeed, while Foscue has performed at a higher level despite average physical tools.
Foscue is listed at 6' and 203 pounds, with below average speed and average athleticism. It's not the profile that will make traditional scouts jump out of their seats. But few hitters in this range of the draft have performed like Foscue has, and there's reason to believe he'll get the most out of what he has. He sets up from a spread out stance, holding his hands back above his head and his feet out apart. Despite the setup, Foscue employs a pretty simple swing, using his advanced plate discipline and hand eye coordination to find the barrel consistently and drive balls into the gaps and over fences with metal bats. There's little question about his ability to handle advanced pitching, and he finds the barrel consistently enough to be a threat as he moves through pro ball.
The questions do come in when it comes to Foscue's ability to translate offensive impact with wood bats, especially because he's just average at second base and the pressure figures to be on his bat. He hit just .255/.288/.362 in a small, 14 game sample with the US Collegiate National Team, which is certainly not enough to say he'll never hit with wood but it also didn't answer any of those questions. Foscue will need to continually rely on his advanced sense of the game to hit his way up, without getting the same benefit of the doubt that some of the toolsier infielders in this class, like Casey Martin and Jordan Westburg, get.
The good news is that Foscue should hit. You don't hit like he has in the SEC by accident, and the plate discipline numbers only further his cause. At the end of the day, you could be 6'4" and blasting balls into the parking lot in batting practice, but it matters what you do in games. Foscue is a gamer who is known to work hard at his craft, and I like his chances of continuing to hit. The projection probably looks like 15-20 home runs annually at the major league level with good on-base percentages, enough to warrant a starting second base job, though there is a chance the power numbers dip more into the 10-15 range. His name has been picking up some steam lately and what previously looked more like a comp/early second round profile is now being mentioned more and more in the back of the first.
2020 batting practice
Game action in the 2019 College World Series
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