2022 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

The Tigers went exclusively the college route this year, loading up on bats early with five in their first six picks before transitioning to mostly pitching for the latter portion of day two and day three. Aside from that, there are no clear trends here, but I do really like that group of hitters they were able to put together early in the draft. Jace Jung has a very good chance to be the best hitter in the entire draft, while Peyton Graham has some of the most upside of any college player outside the first round.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-12: 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech. My rank: #9.
Slot value: $4.59 million. Signing bonus: $4.59 million.
The Tigers started off their 2022 draft class with a bang, picking up the man that has been perhaps college baseball's best all-around hitter the past couple of seasons. The younger brother of Rangers prospect and former top ten pick Josh Jung, Jace is a career .328/.468/.647 hitter at Texas Tech and finished 2022 with a .335/.481/.612 line, 14 home runs, and a 42/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. Talked about throughout the top ten picks for much of the past two seasons, he got a little banged up while starting every single game for the Red Raiders and slumped a bit to close out the season, which may be why he was still available at twelve. The San Antonio native has a unique setup at the plate, holding his hands high behind his ear with the bat head cocked back towards the press box behind home plate, but personally I like it a lot because it really shortens the path his barrel needs to travel to reach the ball. He's already right there in the hitting position and wastes very little movement getting going. He stands out for an extremely patient approach, helping him walk in fully 20% of his plate appearances this spring as pitchers barraged him with offspeed stuff while he happily took first base time and time again. When you do give him something to hit, he won't miss it, with an easy plus hit tool that helps him make consistent hard contact to all fields. Jung has plenty of pop, too, producing huge exit velocities with great frequency, and that power also plays to all fields. Together, that's a hitter that could blast 25-30+ home runs a year with very high on-base percentages, fitting right into the upper third of the order. It's all about the bat here, though he should be able to stick in the dirt in some capacity. Drafted as a second baseman, he has enough range to be serviceable there, but he isn't the explosive athlete that can take away hits from the hole. He could also see some time at third base, where his range is a better fit, though he lacks the cannon arm of his older brother. Still, expect Jung to hit his way through the minors very quickly. He's already at High A West Michigan, where he's slashing .226/.314/.290 with seven strikeouts to four walks over eight games.

2-51: SS Peyton Graham, Oklahoma. My rank: #31.
Slot value: $1.51 million. Signing bonus: $1.8 million ($289,400 above slot value).
The Tigers got another Big 12 bat in the second round, but Peyton Graham is a very, very different player than Jace Jung. He has been a priority follow for area scouts throughout his time at Oklahoma, then after a so-so start to the 2022 season, he really warmed up with the weather to finish at .335/.417/.640 with 20 home runs, 34 stolen bases, and a 69/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games. Graham is an ultra projectable athlete that combines abundant physical gifts with on-field performance and rapidly improving feel for the game. Built like a string bean at 6'3", he already has plenty of lean strength packed into that lanky frame and should only continue to get stronger. He already shows plus power that plays to all fields, showing the ability to get his arms extended and really drive the ball with force all over the zone. He makes plenty of contact right now, and it's usually very hard contact, though he is an aggressive hitter that has a tendency to chase and he walked in just 8.6% of his plate appearances this spring. As Graham moves up through the minors, pitchers will be more and more keen to take advantage of his approach and that will need to be a major point of emphasis going forward. The North Texas native did look better in that regard as the season wore on, but he's still too much of a free swinger. Graham is plenty athletic enough to play shortstop, where he shows both the range and arm strength to be a weapon out there, though the game can speed up on him a little bit and his feel for the position is just a tick behind. Just like with hitting, the Tigers will want to get him plenty of reps out there and help him make the routine play more consistently. I don't think it will come to this, but if he does move off the dirt, I think his plus speed could make him an asset in center field. Graham has serious All Star upside if he can tighten up his plate discipline, and I did see a couple of Trea Turner comps thrown out there (though Graham has more power and less plate discipline at this stage of his career). Regardless, this will be a lot of fun to track, and he is slashing .240/.406/.320 with nine strikeouts to six walks through seven games at Low A Lakeland, already showing a more patient approach in a small sample.

4-117: RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #147.
Slot value: $517,900. Signing bonus: $517,900.
Troy Melton was an interesting day two candidate for the 2021 draft, but an up and down season that saw him finish with a 6.14 ERA, in addition to his youth relative to the class, led him to return to San Diego State for 2022. With a 2.07 ERA and a 67/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings, the results were much better this time around, and Melton still doesn't turn 22 until December so he's age appropriate for this draft. He sits in the low to mid 90's with a fastball that has gotten up to 97, getting good extension as well that brings his release height down and helps the ball jump on hitters a little extra. His slider is an average pitch and could use to add some power, while his changeup is a third pitch that's a bit behind the others. Last year, he got hit hard when he left balls over the plate, with long arm action that made it easy for hitters to pick pitches up out of his hand. A shorter arm stroke in 2022 helps him hide the ball better, and his ERA dropped more than four runs. The 6'4" righty is a great athlete that does not throw with too much effort, filling up the zone well with at least average command. Given his athleticism and ability to make adjustments, there is a lot for the Tigers to play with here as they work to sharpen up his offspeed stuff, so there is a chance he develops into a mid rotation starter. For now, he looks more like a #4 or #5 given his lack of a true out pitch. The Southern California native could move relatively quickly.

5-147: 3B Luke Gold, Boston College. My rank: #100.
Slot value: $386,900. Signing bonus: $386,900.
This is a nice pickup in the fifth round for the Tigers, who are getting a very good hitter even if he's not as explosive as a guy like Jace Jung or Peyton Graham. Luke Gold showed very well in the Cape Cod League last summer (.267/.363/.523), then put together a quietly solid 2022 campaign by slashing .308/.401/.557 with nine home runs and a 28/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in a very strong ACC. Every draft, I find a few guys that are best described as "just a pro hitter," and Gold fits that. He grinds out at bats and makes a ton of contact from the right side, showing very little swing and miss while consistently spraying hard line drives to all fields. All that contact keeps his walk rates down, but you don't have to worry about him chasing and helping pitchers out. There is some power from a simple, quick, right handed swing, and he tapped it with wood bats on the Cape where he homered six times in 27 games. In all, it's a very nice offensive profile that could produce around 15 home runs a year with high batting averages and steady, consistent performance. He will have to hit, because he's more ballplayer than athlete and projects as a fringy defender no matter where you put him. The Albany-area native played mostly second base at Boston College, where his fringy speed limited his range, and it looks like the Tigers drafted him as a third baseman to see if he has just enough arm strength to make it work. If Gold slows down at all with age, he could be pushed to first base in the long run, where he may not have enough power to play every day (especially with Spencer Torkelson around). You're never going to get guaranteed starters for slot value in the fifth round anyways, so I still really like the floor here and think Gold will contribute sooner rather than later. He's already been deployed at Low A Lakeland, where he has two hits in eleven at bats through four games with an even three to three strikeout to walk ratio.

6-177: SS Danny Serretti, North Carolina. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $293,900. Signing bonus: $293,900.
Danny Serretti, like Troy Melton, was a well-known name that had a chance to go on day two of the draft, in 2021, but he opted to head back to school and try his luck again. He did manage to put up significantly better numbers this spring, with a .365/.437/.567 slash line, ten home runs, and a 38/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games landing him in the sixth round. A switch hitter, he has been much more disciplined this spring and really cut down on his swing and miss, helping him do damage with a lot of hard contact. There is some sneaky power to the pull side in his 6'1" frame, and he does drive balls into the gaps for extra base hits regularly. It's not a flashy offensive profile, but one that can handle pro pitching and make enough impact to keep moving up. He's been the UNC shortstop for a few years now, with smooth actions in the dirt and perhaps just enough arm to stick there. The New Jersey native's athleticism helps him on both sides of the ball, as he moves really well in the box, on the basepaths, and at shortstop. It's a pretty coachable profile that has a very good shot to wind up a utility infielder down the line. He's off to a red hot start for Low A Lakeland, where he's slashing .455/.647/.818 with a home run and just one strikeout to six walks through four games.

7-207: OF Seth Stephenson, Tennessee. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $229,800. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($71,200 above slot value).
Seth Stephenson makes it two switch hitters in a row for the Tigers, and he went a little above slot to grab himself a nice $300,000 bonus in the seventh round. Stephenson spent two years at Temple JC in Texas before transferring to Tennessee, where he put up a great season and hit .339/.408/.508 with four home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 41/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. He stands out most for his speed, with plus-plus wheels that help him fly around the bases and the outfield. Listed at a skinny 5'9", there is very little power in the tank and he hit just four home runs this year despite playing at a hitter-friendly home park, but he does make a ton of line drive contact and lets his speed do the rest. He's a relatively aggressive hitter that wants to make things happen quickly, so he doesn't walk much and his strikeout rate is a bit elevated as well. He's played some infield in college but will likely stick with the outfield in pro ball, where his speed makes him an asset in all three positions. To reach his ceiling as a speedy fourth outfielder, the Austin-area native will need to manage the strike zone a bit better so that he can cut down on the swing and miss, giving his speed more opportunity to go to work.

10-297: RHP Trevin Michael, Oklahoma. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $153,000. Signing bonus: $50,000 ($103,000 below slot value).
If you want quick to the big leagues, it might not get much quicker than Trevin Michael, the oldest player in the entire draft at nearly 25 years old. After graduating from Oklahoma's Piedmont High School in 2016, he redshirted his freshman season, spent two years pitching for Northern Oklahoma JC, then two years at Lamar, then finally came to Oklahoma in 2022 as a sixth year senior. Serving as the Sooner closer, he was nothing short of dominant this spring with a 2.89 ERA and a 95/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.2 innings and really stepping up during the College World Series run. He sits in the mid 90's and regularly touches the upper 90's, with some hop that makes it jump on hitters. A rare four pitch college reliever, he adds three secondaries that will all be put to good use in pro ball. His short, hard slider has some sweep to it, while his more top to bottom curveball gives him more depth and his changeup fades nicely away from left handed hitters. An absolute bulldog on the mound, he attacks the strike zone relentlessly and that makes up for average command. The 6'2" righty did make a couple of starts for Oklahoma this spring and performed well in extended outings, but given his age, he'll likely be a pure reliever for the Tigers where they can rush him up to the big leagues as quickly as possible. Expect him in Detroit sometime in 2023, though for now he's starting off in the Florida Complex League and has struck out two of the four batters he's faced.

13-387: OF Dom Johnson, Kansas State. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: $180,000 ($55,000 against bonus pool).
Dom Johnson was on scouts' radars out of high school in 2020, but made it to campus at Oklahoma State and barely played in 2021. He transferred to Kansas State after the season and thrived in Manhattan, slashing .345/.419/.593 with twelve home runs and a 48/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Working with a line drive swing, he makes a lot of hard contact with a quick stroke from the right side and likes to turn on balls when pitchers come in. That's where his power comes from, because at 5'9" he doesn't quite have the thump to put the ball over the fence the other way on a consistent basis. He's also a plus runner that has a chance to play center field if he can get a little more refined out there, giving him a very solid fourth outfielder projection. To reach that, he'll also need to get more refined at the plate, where he has a tendency to chase good breaking balls. I saw him play a couple games in person at Texas Tech, where Cubs fifth rounder Brandon Birdsell struck him out three times in a row on the same pitch – a good slider down and away. The Tigers are buying the athleticism and trajectory here, because even if he has a ways to go in his development, he's miles ahead of where he was a year ago.

2022 MLB Draft: An early look at the Big 12

2021 draftees: 38. Top school: Texas Tech (9)
2021 preseason writeup (published 9/16/2020)

Top draftees:
1-21, Cubs: LHP Jordan Wicks (Kansas State)
CBA-32, Tigers: RHP Ty Madden (Texas)
2-51, Brewers: LHP Russell Smith (Texas Christian)
4-126, Braves: SS Cal Conley (Texas Tech)
4-128, Twins: 3B Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Oklahoma State)
4-129, Padres: LHP Jackson Wolf (West Virginia)
4-130, Rays: OF Dru Baker (Texas Tech)

A lot is going to change in the Big 12 over the next few seasons, with flagship programs Texas and Oklahoma preparing to leave for the SEC and Houston, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Brigham Young possibly joining in their place. Last year, I had to dig deep into the conference to find its top draft prospects, but this year is looking to be much stronger right away. Last year the conference was more about depth than star power, with just three players going in the top three and a half rounds, but then we saw four players go in a span of five picks at the back of the fourth round and ultimately every team except Kansas had multiple picks. This year already has three players squarely in the first round conversation alone and quite a few more in that second to third round conversation, so we could see heavy cross checker traffic in the region. The state of Oklahoma dominates this list with six out of ten names, and it's also a list full of two-way names, so that's something to be excited about if you're interested in it. The top ten prospects in the Big 12 heading into the season are:

1. 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 200 lbs. Born 10/4/2000. Hometown: San Antonio, TX.
2021: 21 HR, .337/.462/.697, 4 SB, 45/49 K/BB in 56 games.
The younger brother of Rangers prospect and 2018 eighth overall pick Josh Jung, Jace may actually manage to beat his brother's draft position. He absolutely raked from start to finish in 2021, pushing his batting average above .400 as late as April 14th, at one point posting two three-homer games in a six game span against Kansas State and TCU, and another time going deep in five out of six games against Oklahoma and Kansas. He's the best hitter in the Big 12 and possibly the nation, and a firm candidate to win the Golden Spikes Award in 2022. At six feet tall, he's not huge, but he packs a ton of strength into that frame that gives him plus raw power. He gets to that power very consistently in games with a fairly unique setup, holding his hands higher than most and level with his back shoulder while cocking the bat back a bit towards the backstop. While most players eventually end up in that position after their load, Jung is already ready to go before the pitch is thrown and has very little wasted movement in his swing. Combine that with a patient approach, and you have a guy who not only squares the ball up extremely consistently, but who is simply on base all the time. If we were to nitpick anything about his offensive game, it's that he swings and misses a tad more than you'd like for a potential top ten pick, but that really is nitpicking and he walks so much and hits for so much power that it's really only a question at the very top of the draft. The defensive profile isn't as exciting, as he's manned second base for Texas Tech thus far and profiles either there or at third base in the long run, depending on which part of his game (range or arm strength) a team wants to stretch from his average tool set. Regardless, we have a hitter who profiles for as many as 25-30 home runs a year with high on-base percentages, a true middle of the lineup profile no matter where he ends up defensively. That has a chance to land him in a very similar range to his brother four years prior.

2. OF Jared McKenzie, Baylor.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6', 175 lbs. Born 5/16/2001. Hometown: Round Rock, TX.
2021: 10 HR, .383/.453/.626, 3 SB, 35/14 K/BB in 51 games.

Jared McKenzie might not quite have Jace Jung's power, but otherwise he's right there. After ripping .406/.453/.449 in his shortened freshman season a year ago, he followed that up with a .383/.453/.626 line this year and has proven to be arguably the toughest out in the entire conference. However, his stock dipped a little bit with a mediocre run through the Cape Cod League (.225/.316/.245, 31% K rate), so he goes into 2022 with a little something to prove. There are no questions about McKenzie's hit tool, with exceptional feel for the barrel that allows him to spray line drives around the field and run into some solid power to his pull side, and a .626 slugging percentage in 2021 was not too shabby for a contact hitter. He hits from a wide base that gives him nice leverage and makes it easier to use the whole field, maximizing his power output despite not being overly physical at a skinny six feet tall. The power did not show up at all with wood bats over the summer, with just two extra base hits (both doubles) in thirty games, so given that he'll be using a metal bat all spring, that may continue to be a question right up to the draft. It looks like a back of the first round/comp round profile for now, with a chance to hit his way firmly into it if he comes back out with the low strikeout rates he showed in 2021 (14.2%), and he currently projects for perhaps 15-20 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. The Austin-area native has some speed but isn't a burner, with a good chance he'll move off center field, perhaps to left. That would put some pressure on his bat and he'll want to show he can hit at the top of the lineup rather than the bottom.

3. 3B Peyton Graham, Oklahoma.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 170 lbs. Born 1/26/2001. Hometown: Waxahachie, TX.
2021: 11 HR, .288/.400/.502, 7 SB, 58/30 K/BB in 53 games.

This profile reminds me a bit of 2021 A's second rounder Zack Gelof for those who followed the 2021 draft. Like Jared McKenzie, Peyton Graham exploded onto the scene with a strong shortened freshman season in 2020 (.358/.457/.612), though he's taken a minor step back since then. Graham has the potential for above average or even plus raw power eventually in his extremely projectable 6'4" frame, and he has begun to tap it in games on a fairly regular basis. He's a patient hitter that knows how to work counts and get his pitch, though he can get into some trouble in deep counts and struck out in 22.7% of his plate appearances in 2021, which is high but still within reason. Like Gelof, Graham will head into his junior season looking for a way to put his power projection together with his plate discipline and come out an all-around force, but for now, it's still a very nice all-around package. Take his defense, where he shows great range and plenty enough arm strength to be an asset at third base, even showing well at shortstop at times, and you have a profile that does a lot right and not much wrong. It will be up to the Waxahachie product to show in 2022 that he can be a true impact player rather than a "jack of all trades, master of none" and work his way into the first round. For now, he's probably more of a comp round/second round type, but there undoubtedly are already teams in love with the skill set who would jump at him in the back of the first. It's a 20 home run, solid on-base percentage projection with a chance for more.

4. RHP Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 180 lbs. Born 9/5/2000. Hometown: Jenks, OK.
2021: 2-5, 7.42 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 67/33 K/BB in 57 innings.

Bryce Osmond was a highly regarded prospect in the 2019 draft, earning second round grades from many evaluators and landing at #53 on my board. Instead, he opted to head west to Stillwater, where his performance has been extremely uneven but he has shown just enough to keep scouts coming back, waiting for that breakout. Osmond allowed at least three earned runs in ten of his thirteen appearances last spring and was knocked around for seven against Oklahoma at one point, but he came back looking better in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed a very respectable 4.21 ERA and 26/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 21.1 innings. The Tulsa-area product brings a low to mid 90's fastball that is regularly up to 96, adding a slider that flashes plus when it's on as well as a more average curveball and changeup. He has an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame and even earned some scouting interest out of high school with his bat, so when you combine that with at times electric stuff, there's plenty of upside. For now, consistency is the big item on the to do list for Osmond. His slider can flatten out at times and his other secondary stuff isn't always there, and while his delivery is pretty simple, he still struggles to repeat it and can lose the strike zone. We're talking fringe-average control and below average command for now. It seems like he could be one or two adjustments away from breaking out as one of the top arms in the conference, and his solid run through the Cape Cod League could be a sign that it's coming. He has #2 starter upside if so.

5. RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 6/8/2001. Hometown: Miami, FL.
2021 (at Miami): 2-3, 5.11 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 35/18 K/BB in 44 innings.
Victor Mederos ranked as my third best pitching prospect to reach campus a year ago (#57 on my overall draft board), part of an incredible Miami recruiting class that could produce multiple early round picks. However, after an up and down freshman season, he transferred across the country to Oklahoma State, where he looks to help anchor what could be the best pitching staff in the Big 12. Mederos has huge stuff, led by a mid 90's fastball that has reached as high as 99 with a full arsenal to back it up. His downer curve, harder slider, and changeup all flash at least above average if not plus, though for now it's all relatively inconsistent. He has more feel for the breaking balls than his changeup, but they can blend into each other at times and get hit hard. I've seen Mederos listed at 6'4" back in high school, 6'3" at Miami, and now 6'2" at Oklahoma State, so I'm not actually sure how tall he is, but he's a big dude nonetheless that extends well down the mound and gets on hitters quick. The Miami native rotates his big body hard in his delivery and can be prone to overthrowing, at which times he can lose the strike zone, but for the most part he was around the zone in 2021. As he gets more comfortable with his huge stuff, he should be able to provide average command as he repeats his delivery more consistently and trusts his arm strength. We could definitely use fewer balls over the heart of the plate, and given how hittable he was at times in 2021, there are some minor concerns that his stuff could play too true. Perhaps a change of scenery from Miami to Stillwater will be just what he needs to go from seeing his stuff play down to playing up, and it's also important to note that he was just a true freshman last spring, even if he's old for his class and turned 20 in June.

6. SS Trey Faltine, Texas.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 1/8/2001. Hometown: Richmond, TX.

2021: 5 HR, .249/.374/.401, 7 SB, 72/35 K/BB in 66 games.

Trey Faltine was an under the radar but very interesting high school product out of the Houston area in 2019, coming in at #85 on my board, showing off supreme athleticism that made him an enticing prospect as a pitcher, infielder, or outfielder. After hovering around 90 with his fastball while showing great feel for his secondary pitches and a repeatable delivery, he's exclusively played shortstop in Austin and looks to stick with that going forward.  He really stands out for his glove, with tremendous range and a strong arm making him a lock to stick at shortstop and provide plenty of value on defense alone. The bat is a bit behind the glove, but there's still plenty to like. He's a moderately disciplined hitter, showing a clean right handed swing that helps him make hard contact to all fields while drawing his fair share of walks, but there's more to be unlocked. Faltine can produce surprisingly high exit velocities when he really connects, but to this point that power hasn't shown up much in games with just eight home runs over 108 games between his time at Texas and in the Cape Cod League. There is some question as to whether he'll ever be able to tap that power consistently in games given his already fringe-average hit tool, but even a moderate step forward in 2022 would really help his draft stock given his defensive profile. It's a utility floor with a chance for more, reminding me a bit of 2021 Reds third rounder Jose Torres or 2020 Royals comp pick Nick Loftin.

7. RHP/SS Cade Horton, Oklahoma.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 210 lbs. Born 8/20/2001. Hometown: Norman, OK.

2021: Did not play.

Both Bryce Osmond and Trey Faltine showed off serious two-way ability in high school, but both have stuck to one or the other in college. That makes Cade Horton the top official two-way prospect in the conference, despite the fact that he hasn't actually seen the field in Norman after missing 2021 with Tommy John surgery. A mid-August birthday makes him old for his class and he'll therefore be eligible as a redshirt freshman in 2022, so for now we'll just have to project based on his high school profile. Most prefer the Norman product as a pitcher, as do I after ranking him the fifth best incoming pitching prospect a year ago and the 70th overall prospect in the draft. In high school, he sat in the low 90's with his fastball and could reach back for up to 95, adding a good slider and an average changeup that showed promise. His main goal upon reaching campus was going to be getting stronger, as he didn't always hold his fastball velocity deep into games and his slider needed to add power to become a true plus pitch. He's a very good athlete that also originally intended to play quarterback for the national powerhouse Oklahoma football team, though he wasn't on the roster as a freshman and his surgery obviously knocked him out for the 2021 season. And I don't think he was going to see the field anyways with Spencer Rattler locking down the starting job. That football athleticism helps him pump consistent strikes and repeat his delivery well, and now that he's presumably focusing solely on baseball, I'm excited to see how he comes out throwing once healthy in 2022, where he has a chance to step into the Sooners' weekend rotation. At the plate, Horton shows above average raw power from the right side, though his swing can get long and he has shown swing and miss issues in the past. We obviously have that aforementioned athleticism, which combined with his strong arm makes him a good bet to stick at shortstop long term. He'll have a lot riding in this spring but if he doesn't like his offers come draft day, he'll have plenty of leverage as a 20 year old with three years of eligibility remaining. Because of that, expect him to be an expensive sign.

8. RHP/1B Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State.

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'7", 220 lbs. Born 2/14/2001. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA.
2021: 7-2, 2.57 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 102/27 K/BB in 84 innings.

2021: 1 HR, .269/.398/.388, 0 SB, 20/14 K/BB in 42 games.

Justin Campbell brings us another two-way player, though aside from his raw power and solid plate discipline, I don't see much reason to keep him off the mound. He was Oklahoma State's most consistent pitcher this past spring, going at least five innings in twelve of fourteen starts and allowing zero or one earned run nine times. The highlight of his season came on May 8th, when he no-hit the Kansas Jayhawks on just 99 pitches while walking one and striking out eleven. The towering 6'7" righty doesn't have overpowering stuff, but really knows how to pitch and screams innings-eating #4 starter. The fastball sits around 90, reaching a few ticks above that at his best, coming from an extremely high release point that makes the ball look like it's coming down from the sky. That kind of approach angle might have made him a relatively early pick even without big velocity ten years ago, though today it's not as in style. He drops in a big curveball with a ton of depth as well as an above average changeup. Campbell repeats his delivery extremely well and throws everything, including the offspeed stuff, for strikes, screaming dependability with a more old school profile. If he adds a tick of velocity in 2022, which could happen especially if he gives up hitting, it looks like a pretty safe second round profile. Now with the current velocity, he probably fits better in the third.

9. SS/RHP Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 205 lbs. Born 7/24/2001. Hometown: Willow Springs, NC.
2021: 8 HR, .263/.410/.526, 1 SB, 50/27 K/BB in 39 games.

2021: 0-1, 18.00 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 3/4 K/BB in 2 innings.

Make that a third consecutive true two way player. In addition to playing both ways, Nolan McLean is like Cade Horton in that he was actually recruited to play quarterback at Oklahoma State as well, though while he was listed on the 2020 football roster, he didn't get into any games and is not on the 2021 roster. McLean was obviously a very highly regarded baseball recruit, having ranked #145 on my 2020 board, and is now eligible as a sophomore due to being old for the class. A well known pitching prospect in high school, he sits in the low 90's and adds a big curveball but has not pitched much yet for the Cowboys, earning just two innings last spring and not pitching at all in the Cape Cod League. With his frame and athleticism, he could continue to trend upwards and has a chance to start if he improves his changeup, but I see more upside at the plate. While there are some holes in the profile, he overall had a strong freshman season in Stillwater and followed it up by hitting .261/.469/.522 in eight games on the Cape, continuing the upward trend of his bat that began in earnest during his senior year of high school. McLean reminds me a bit of incoming UCLA freshman Malakhi Knight as a hitter, employing an upright stance and swing and generating leverage through his strength and long levers. It's a power over hit profile for now, with the Raleigh-area product projecting for above average power from that big 6'3" frame, and he does have a patient approach at the plate that enables him to draw plenty of walks. For now, there's some swing and miss in his game and his right handed swing can get grooved at times, and until he cuts down that strikeout rate (28.9% as a freshman, 37.5% on the Cape), he projects more in the middle of day two rather than in the top couple of rounds. The approach is there, so really we just need better adjustability and pure bat to ball skills in the swing. He's an exceptional athlete with a strong arm, though the jury is still out as to whether he'll stick at shortstop.

10. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'2", 225 lbs. Born 2/21/2000. Hometown: Willis, TX.

2021: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 innings.

Quite a few well-known, 2021 draft-eligible names are returning to the Big 12, including top-200 prospects Austin Krob (#186, TCU), Pete Hansen (#194, Texas), and Ivan Melendez (#196, Texas), but Brandon Birdsell (#184) is the best of the group and in my opinion and was the only one to crack this list. Also a well-known prospect out of San Jacinto JC in 2020, Birdsell will be a household name for Texas area scouts for a third straight season and hopefully this will be the one where he gets his money. He has a big right arm that has produced higher and higher velocities, and in 2021 he touched as high as 99 while sitting in the low to mid 90's. His power upper 80's slider is an out pitch that projects as an above average offering, while his changeup and newer curveball are both solid pitches in their own right that help fill out his arsenal. He does a good job of repeating his short arm delivery and throws strikes, giving him every chance to start at the next level. Really, the only question mark is health, and unfortunately it's a big one. Birdsell went down in April last spring with a shoulder injury and hasn't pitched since, and if there's any body part that still scares away scouts in an age of rapidly advancing sports medicine, it's the shoulder. He will have to prove that he is healthy in 2022 to even have a shot at the draft's second day, and in order to go in the top five rounds or so and project as a starter, he'll likely need at least 60-70 innings in the Red Raider rotation. If he does come back healthy and pitch to his ability, we have a serious #3 or #4 starter on our hands, and even if he can't hold up under a starter's workload, the fastball and slider make him a very solid relief option.