The Cardinals' system has lived and died by the draft, and while a breakout campaign from Dylan Carlson and encouraging returns from Nolan Gorman and Andrew Knizner are huge, there's no question the system is feeling the effects of some blown picks. First rounders Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) are looking like busts, and 2018 competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts had a discouraging first full season. That said, some shrewd moves have also paid huge dividends, as Angel Rondon, Tommy Parsons, Alex Fagalde, Andrew Warner, and Justin Toerner all figure into the team's future despite signing for virtually no money, and still low-profile acquisitions of guys like Jhon Torres, Ivan Herrera, Andre Pallante, and Jack Ralston look great in hindsight. It's a thinner system than it has been recently, but the big two power bats of Carlson and Gorman, as well as a slew of upper minors back end starter types, look to make their impact in St. Louis soon.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis Redbirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, short season State College Spikes, rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
Catcher
- Andrew Knizner (2020 Age: 25): Yadier Molina made it very tough on Carson Kelly, now with the Diamondbacks, and he's doing the same thing to Andrew Knizner (first N is silent). The seventh round pick out of North Carolina State in 2016 reached the majors in 2019, slashing .276/.357/.463 with 12 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games at AAA Memphis while also hitting .226/.293/.377 with a pair of home runs in 18 major league games. Though he packs a lot of strength in his 6'1" frame, Knizner is plenty happy just spraying line drives around the field and that makes him extremely tough to strike out, which in turn will help his bat play up at the major league level. He's also a solid defender who should improve while learning behind Molina in St. Louis, and he could eventually develop enough power to hit 15 home runs per season. Knizner is the rare catching prospect that actually projects as a true starter at the major league level, and once he figures out a way to get around Molina, either by playing a different position for a few years, by going to another team, or just eating away at his playing time, he should be moderately productive on both sides of the ball.
- Julio Rodriguez (2020 Age: 22-23): Rodriguez lacks the impact at the plate of a guy like Knizner, but his superior defense alone gives him a shot at being a big league backup. In 2019, he slashed .268/.311/.393 with eight home runs and a 68/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, both pitcher-friendly environments, so he doesn't completely lack sock in his bat. Rodriguez employs a contact-oriented approach that limits his walks but also his strikeouts, which should help him handle big league pitching as a hitter, though he probably won't hit more than 5-10 home runs per season. The Cardinals have a lot of depth behind the plate, so I see it as pretty likely that one of their young catchers gets traded, but Rodriguez's superior glove gives him the chance to be a long-term backup in St. Louis.
- Ivan Herrera (2020 Age: 19-20): Right behind Rodriguez is Ivan Herrera, a teenager who slashed .284/.374/.405 with nine home runs and a 72/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games at Class A Peoria and High A Palm Beach. Herrera employs a very advanced approach at the plate for his age, earning a promotion up to High A shortly after his 19th birthday and continuing to get on base well in his small sample size. With his quick, simple swing, he could add some power without sacrificing too much in the way of contact and has a chance to challenge Knizner for a starting spot down the road. He's a work in progress defensively, but he also doesn't turn 20 until June, so he's ahead of schedule regardless. I'd call him the better prospect to Rodriguez, even with the discrepancy in current defense, as he's rapidly improving at a young age.
- Keep an eye on: Jose Godoy, Pedro Pages, Aaron Antonini
Corner Infield
- Nolan Gorman (2020 Age: 19-20): Gorman was a first round pick out of a Phoenix high school in 2018, then his sensational run through the Appalachian League (11 HR, .350/.443/.664) put him firmly on the prospect map. He came back down to Earth a bit in 2019, slashing .248/.326/.439 with 15 home runs and a 152/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Peoria and High A Palm Beach, though he was facing older competition. Gorman has a ton of power from the left side of the plate, true 30-40 homer pop that has never been questioned by evaluators, but the nicest thing to see so far has been a hit tool that was more advanced than expected. Gorman at times struggled with his approach at the plate on the prep circuit, and the thought was that his long swing might inhibit his ability to get to his power right away in pro ball. He indeed has struck out in 29% of his plate appearances so far in the minors, though his assignments have been aggressive and he has gotten to his power for 32 home runs in 188 career games, so I'm not too worried about the swing and miss. I think he'll settle in as a guy who hits 30-35 home runs annually with decent on-base percentages. He's been improving at third base, and while he'll never be a plus defender there, he might be able to stick rather than moving over to first base. The bat will profile at either position.
- Luken Baker (2020 Age: 23): Baker, a slugging first baseman who was drafted in the second round out of TCU in 2018, saw his stock drop a notch in 2019. This year, he slashed .244/.327/.390 with ten home runs and a 112/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A Palm Beach, which was a bit light for a guy whose power will have to carry him up to the majors. Baker is a huge guy, listed at 6'4" and 265 pounds, though his power manifested more in hitting a lot of doubles (32) than home runs (10) in 2019. It's harder to get balls out of Florida State League parks, so if you give Baker the benefit of the doubt, he might get his power stroke back a bit in the Texas League in 2020. His strong plate discipline should help his bat play up, though at this point he might look more like a platoon bat than as a true starting first baseman.
- Elehuris Montero (2020 Age: 21): It's been a wild ride for Montero, who broke out by slashing .315/.371/.504 in A ball in 2018, but he followed it up with a nightmare 2019 in which he slashed .188/.235/.317 with seven home runs and a 74/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games at AA Springfield, also missing time with a broken hand. The strike zone completely got away from him, and he struggled to make contact against advanced AA pitching. He still got to his power somewhat, but it's clear that he'll need to repeat the level in order to get on base in addition to hitting for power. He's not a great defender and may have to move to first base, which would hurt his chances of starting, and the tough year might mean a future as a platoon/bench bat. If he bounces back, though, his feel for the barrel and power could help him hit 15-20 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Evan Mendoza, Yariel Gonzalez, Juan Yepez, Malcom Nunez
Middle Infield
- Edmundo Sosa (2020 Age: 24): Sosa spent most of 2019 at AAA Memphis, slashing .291/.335/.466 with 17 home runs and a 96/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games, and he's also slashed .200/.385/.200 over eleven major league games. Those 17 home runs are more than likely a product of the homer-happy Pacific Coast League, as he fits better into the 5-10 home run range with the potential to pop for up to 15 in a season, but he makes easy contact and can find the barrel consistently against high level pitching, giving him a chance to stick in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and overall it will probably keep his offensive profile low enough that he'll have trouble starting, but he's a slick defender that should be able to handle both middle infield spots well and make for a valuable utility man in the very near future.
- Ramon Urias (2020 Age: 25-26): Urias was signed out of the Mexican League in 2018, and in 2019 he slashed .262/.362/.419 with ten home runs and an 81/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games, mostly at AAA Memphis. At only 5'10" and 150 pounds, he probably saw the same effect as Sosa when it came to his home run output, and he probably fits best at 5-10 per season in the majors. Urias stands out for his plate discipline, as he makes easy contact and should have no problem hitting in the majors, but he's unlikely to hit for a ton of impact and he has some competition if he wants to crack it as a utility infielder in 2020. To me, he's likely behind Sosa on the depth chart and he also has Max Schrock and Kramer Robertson to think about.
- Kramer Robertson (2020 Age: 25): Robertson, a fourth round pick as an LSU senior in 2017, has moved relatively quickly through the minors and in 2019 he slashed .231/.360/.365 with eleven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 85/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis. He's not a big guy at 5'10", but he has wiry strength that helps him produce moderate power and his excellent plate discipline helps him get to it relatively consistently. He's an extremely scrappy player who plays good defense and should be able to play his way up to the majors, though the Cardinals' utility infield scene is crowded at this point and Sosa probably has the leg up.
- Keep an eye on: Max Schrock, Kramer Robertson, Delvin Perez, Mateo Gil
Outfield
- Dylan Carlson (2020 Age: 21): The Cardinals drafted Carlson at the end of the first round out of a Sacramento-area high school in 2016, and they subsequently spent 2016 (.251/.313/.404), 2017 (.240/.342/.347), and 2018 (.246/.348/.390) waiting for him to break out. He finally did in 2019, slashing .292/.372/.542 with 26 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 116/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, enough to push himself into the conversation with Nolan Gorman for the best prospect in the system. He's always had two things going for him at the plate, and those have been strong plate discipline and natural raw power, but he finally began to tap that power consistently in 2019 with a new approach that saw him try to drive the ball in the air more often. We've seen this a lot, as more and more minor and major leaguers are finding success by trying to lift the ball and get it off the ground. Now with his power, patience, and good defense in right field, we could see Carlson crack the Cardinals roster in 2020 and even try to pry a starting spot away from whoever takes over for Marcell Ozuna. In the end, Carlson projects for maybe 25 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and a few stolen bases.
- Randy Arozarena (2020 Age: 25): Arozarena was a highly touted Cuban import who signed for $1.25 million in in 2016, then broke out in upper minors in 2019. This year, he slashed .344/.431/.571 with 15 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 71/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 92 games at AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, then hit .300/.391/.500 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a 19 game debut with the Cardinals. At 5'11", he doesn't have a ton of raw pop, but he knows how to get to it and has hit double digit home runs all three years in the minors. That's more due to his feel for the barrel, which has enabled him to limit his strikeouts and consistently make hard contact, leading to high batting averages, albeit without a ton of walks. The Cardinals' outfield plan is up in the air for 2020 with the departure of Marcell Ozuna, and while you know top prospect Dylan Carlson is gunning for that spot, Arozarena has more experience at AAA and in the majors and is already on the 40 man roster. In all, I think both can start, with Arozarena projecting for maybe 15 home runs per season, a few stolen bases, and solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages.
- Justin Williams (2020 Age: 24): Williams was drafted by the Diamondbacks in the second round out of a south-central Louisiana high school way back in 2013, and he's since been traded twice in what's been a long road up. He originally went to the Rays in the Jeremy Hellickson trade after the 2014 season, then moved on to the Cardinals as part of the return for Tommy Pham in 2018. After grounding out in his only MLB at bat in 2018, Williams had a really up and down 2019, missing a lot of time with various injuries, slashing just .193/.246/.263 with one home run and a 17/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 games at AA Spingfield, then slashing .353/.437/.608 with seven home runs and a 30/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at AAA Memphis. He's got wiry strength that helps him produce average power, enough to hit 15-20 home runs annually in the majors if he can get to it, and he keeps his strikeouts reasonably low as well. If he hadn't missed so much time throughout his career to nagging injuries, he might already be a productive regular in the majors, but it's hard to gauge his ceiling when he's cracked 100 games just twice in seven pro seasons. He probably settles in as a bat-first fourth outfielder, one who can get on base and hit for some power, but if he stays healthy he has a shot at starting.
- Justin Toerner (2020 Age: 23-24): Toerner, a 28th round pick out of Cal State Northridge in 2018, is already looking like a steal. He hit .312/.410/.385 across three levels in his pro debut and reached High A, then kept on hitting in 2019 by slashing .253/.374/.379 with eleven home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 105/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 games at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield. None of Toerner's tools stand out, which is part of why he dropped so far in the 2018 draft, but he does a little bit of everything and is sneaking up behind Carlson, Arozarena, and Williams as a potential fourth outfielder because of it. He started getting to his below average raw power more in 2019, and his patient approach at the plate enabled him to post a .403 on-base percentage in High A then a solid .338 mark in AA even as his bat slumped. I doubt Toerner is ever a full time starter for the Cardinals, but he's definitely a sleeper to watch.
- Jhon Torres (2020 Age: 20): Man, this kid is explosive and flat out fun to watch hit. He was acquired from the Indians in the Oscar Mercado trade in 2018, around which he tore up complex ball to the tune of a .321/.409/.525 line. Pushed all the way to Class A Peoria for 2019, he looked a bit overmatched and slashed just .167/.240/.212 with a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games, so the Cardinals dropped him back down to rookie level Johnson City, where he hit .286/.391/.527 with six home runs and a 36/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games. Torres already has great raw power at 19 years old, and at 6'4", he could grow into even more down the line. He generates this power both from his strength and from a big leg kick, which leads to his share of swing and miss, but he also has enough feel for hitting and finding the barrel that he can limit the strikeouts and get to that power. He'll take another crack at Class A in 2020, and he has one of the higher ceilings in the system as a kid who could eventually hit 30+ home runs annually with a good arm in right field.
- Trejyn Fletcher (2020 Age: 19): Fletcher is a bit of a mystery for multiple reasons. He played high school ball in Portland, Maine, which is well off the beaten prospect path (the only Mainers I can think of in the major leagues are Ryan Flaherty and Charlie Furbush, not sure what it is with Maine baseball players and F last names), Maine's awful spring weather makes it really hard to see those prospects, and he reclassified in March from the 2020 draft to the more age-appropriate 2019 draft. He's an exceptional athlete who at this point is all projection and no track record, though his .244/.291/.375 slash line with four home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 76/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at rookie level Johnson City were better than expected. Fletcher has plenty of power and speed, giving him the chance to be a real asset on both sides of the ball, but his hit tool is entirely unproven and he needs a lot of mechanical changes in his short swing. His 43.4% strikeout rate in his pro debut is evidence of that, so it will be a few years before we really know what we're getting. The upside is fun to dream on, though, and it's definitely a plus that he managed to hit his way up to the Appalachian League at 18 years old.
- Keep an eye on: Conner Capel, Leandro Cedeno, Jonatan Machado, Diowill Burgos
Starting Pitching
- Genesis Cabrera (2020 Age: 23): Cabrera often looks like more of a reliever than a starter, but it's not known what direction the Cardinals will go with their fifth starter and that works in Cabrera's favor. In 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 106/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 99 innings at hitter-friendly AAA Memphis, then put up a 4.87 ERA, a 1.67 WHIP, and a 19/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings in the majors. The 6'2" lefty has an explosive fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's while touching higher, and he adds a whole slew of secondary pitches that have been inconsistent throughout his career. He's also been even more inconsistent with his command, so even at 23 years old, he could really turn out to be anything. If his profile remains as is, he might be able to stick as a #5 starter, though he's just a few adjustments away from becoming a #3/#4. Also highly possible is a career in the bullpen, where he can focus on a couple secondary pitches and not have to worry so much about his command, and his high-effort delivery might fit better there anyways.
- Jake Woodford (2020 Age: 23): Cabrera's primary competition for that fifth spot, if the Cardinals don't outsource it, will be Jake Woodford, a competitive balance pick out of a Tampa high school in 2015. Woodford spent 2019 in the homer-happy Pacific Coast League, posting a respectable 4.15 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, a 131/75 strikeout to walk ratio over 151.2 innings at AAA Memphis, numbers that look much better considering the context. His stuff is fairly light, with a low 90's fastball, a pair of decent breaking balls, and a changeup, and his command is decent but nothing to write home about. Woodford's highish walk rates are probably more a product of him trying to avoid the middle of the zone, as he's given up 40 home runs over the past two seasons due to that light stuff, but his feel for pitching is just good enough that he was able to limit the damage up in AAA and his durability makes him one of the more consistent arms in the system. His ceiling is probably that of a #5 starter but he could be that exactly in 2020.
- Tommy Parsons (2020 Age: 24): You can say Parsons improved his stock in 2019. Signed as an un-drafted free agent out of Division III Adrian College in Michigan in 2018, he had a nice run through the Appalachian League before getting sent to Class A Peoria at 23 years old to start 2019. What ensued was a meteoric rise through four minor league levels, as he posted a 3.53 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 148/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 165.2 innings at Peoria, High A Palm Beach, AA Springfield, and AAA Memphis. Those 165.2 innings led all minor leaguers, and that track record of durability extends back to his college days. Nothing jumps off the page with Parsons, who sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three unspectacular secondary pitches, but his masterful control and exceptional feel for pitching help everything play up. The durability also does more than just keep him on the mound, as he's just as effective in the seventh and eighth inning as he is in the first, and I'd be curious to see his stats split by times through the order. His ceiling is that of a #4/#5 starter but he's just a really interesting pitcher.
- Angel Rondon (2020 Age: 22): Rondon has been the epitome of a sleeper prospect. I couldn't find the terms of his signing bonus online, but I'm sure it wasn't much since he signed as an 18 year old in January 2016 (most top prospects sign at 16 years old in July and August), and he's just quietly performed in the low minors without drawing much attention. That changed in 2019, when he had a 2.93 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 159/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 160 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield. He joined his teammate, Parsons, in being one of only seven minor league pitchers to reach 160 innings this year, using his solid three pitch mix and feel for pitching to carve through lineups. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's around average and he really understands how to deploy his stuff. As a pitcher who tends to give up a lot of fly balls, it will be interesting to see how he fares with the juiced balls up in AAA and the majors, but 2019 was certainly an encouraging step forward and he now looks like a future #4 starter.
- Johan Oviedo (2020 Age: 22): Oviedo started the spring at High A Palm Beach, but after posting a 1.60 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, he earned a quick promotion to AA Springfield. He wasn't quite as effective at the higher level, posting a 5.65 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 128/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 innings, but he was also only 21 years old in AA. Oviedo can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a slider and a changeup, the latter of which is very advanced for his age. At 6'6", he could grow into more velocity, but for now the focus needs to be on improving his command, which is below average at this point. He has the chance to become a #3 or #4 starter if he does, and that may require him to tone down his high effort delivery a bit. If not, he fits well as a reliever.
- Zack Thompson (2020 Age: 22): Thompson was the Cardinals' first round pick out of Kentucky in 2019, but if he stays healthy, he has the chance to move quickly. In his pro debut, he had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League and High A Palm Beach, where he threw in relief after a long college season. He has the chance to be great value at the #19 overall pick, as nothing stands out in his game but everything is steadily improving and he has a track record of success in the SEC. He comes in with a low 90's fastball and a full set of secondary pitches, all of which are potential weapons that have remained pretty consistent, and his command steadily improved throughout his time at Kentucky and looked solid in his pro debut. I don't see him as a true ace, but the lefty has a very good shot at becoming a #3 starter if he can stay healthy.
- Andre Pallante (2020 Age: 21): Three rounds after Thompson, the Cardinals took UC Irvine righty Andre Pallante in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. He, like Thompson, has the chance to be great value at this spot, and he already had a successful pro debut with a 2.78 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 35.2 innings at short season State College. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds three secondary pitches, and while none stand out as plus, he has good feel for pitching and commands everything fairly well. He's on the smaller side at six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which gives him some reliever risk, but his deep arsenal and command could help him stick in the rotation if he tones down that delivery just a little bit. I like Pallante as a sleeper prospect and I think he could be a #3 or #4 starter.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Warner, Alex Fagalde, Steven Gingery
Relief Pitching
- Junior Fernandez (2020 Age: 23): Fernandez transitioned from starting to relieving in 2018, and after getting mixed results in his first year in the bullpen, he took off in 2019. This year, he had a 1.52 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings at High A Palm Beach, AA Springfield, and AAA Memphis, and he then posted a 5.40 ERA and a 16/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.2 major league innings. Now that he's in the bullpen, his fastball has ticked up to the upper 90's, and he can lean more heavily on his fading changeup while taking emphasis off his decent slider. His mediocre command doesn't hurt him nearly as much in the bullpen as it did in the rotation, and his stuff clearly played up in short spurts. He has closer upside if he can tighten his command a little bit, but a nice career as a set-up man is both more likely and highly valuable anyways.
- Griffin Roberts (2020 Age: 23-24): Roberts was a competitive balance pick in the 2018 draft out of Wake Forest, but his first full season in 2019 went about as poorly as possible. He missed the start of the season after being suspended for a "drug of abuse" (likely marijuana), then came back and posted a 6.44 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 36/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings at High A Palm Beach. His command, which was never all that great to begin with, fell apart and that caused him to pitch from behind in the count often, meaning he had to lean more heavily on his low to mid 90's fastball than on his devastating slider. In the end, he didn't miss bats and he got hit hard. His future is almost certainly in the bullpen now, where he could bump that fastball up into the mid 90's and lean on his slider, which is one of the better breaking balls in all of minor league baseball. In that role, he could move quickly and his command will be less of an issue.
- Tony Locey (2020 Age: 21-22): Locey was the Cardinals' third round pick out of Georgia in 2019, and he posted a 5.29 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and a 31/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 17 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at Class A Peoria in his pro debut. He improved steadily throughout his time in Athens, though he remains inconsistent around most of his game. Locey sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which is his best weapon, and he adds a good slider as well as a curveball and changeup. That deep arsenal could help him start if the Cardinals want to go that route, but the curve and changeup are unreliable and he's probably best off in relief. His command also needs a little bit of work, but tightening it up a little bit could help him be a useful, potentially multi-inning reliever at the major league level.
- Jack Ralston (2020 Age: 22-23): Here's a sleeper for you guys. Ralston didn't pitch in either of his first two seasons at UCLA and only sparingly as a redshirt sophomore, but he broke out as a redshirt junior and the Cardinals took him in the seventh round. Converted to relief at least for his pro debut, he had a 1.07 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at short season State College. He's a 6'6" righty who can bump his fastball into the mid 90's now that he's pitching in relief, and his plus curveball is a bat-missing weapon that could be his ticket up to the major leagues. His command is improving, and if he can hold it around average like it was in his pro debut, he could move quickly up to the majors and be an impact reliever in the relatively near future.
- Keep an eye on: Seth Elledge, Connor Thomas, Walker Robbins
Showing posts with label Nolan Gorman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nolan Gorman. Show all posts
Sunday, December 15, 2019
Friday, December 28, 2018
Reviewing the St. Louis Cardinals Farm System
The Cardinals develop talent very well and have maintained a strong farm system even through a long run of contention, though that system may be down just a hair right now. The graduations of Harrison Bader, Paul DeJong, and Jack Flaherty and trades of Carson Kelly, Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara, and Oscar Mercado, among others, have left the system thinner than usual as they haven't really had as much impact talent as usual coming through to back it up. The fact that back to back first round picks (both 23rd overall) Nick Plummer (2015) and Delvin Perez (2016) haven't panned out as hoped so far hurts, and most of the talent is concentrated in AA and AAA. Of course, I say "as much impact talent" because the Cardinals still have plenty of prospects breaking through, and the system is still quite average even during a down period. They have their typical, if a bit thin, army of useful starting pitchers as well as plenty of competent hitters that should be at least useful role players, though they're a bit short on impact hitters after Nolan Gorman.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
Affiliates: AAA Memphis RedBirds, AA Springfield Cardinals, High A Palm Beach Cardinals, Class A Peoria Chiefs, Short Season State College Spikes, Rookie level Johnson City Cardinals, complex level GCL and DSL Cardinals
High Minors Pitchers: RHP Alex Reyes, RHP Dakota Hudson, RHP Daniel Poncedeleon, LHP Genesis Cabrera, RHP Ryan Helsley, and RHP Jacob Woodford
While the bottom of the Cardinals' farm system doesn't have much pitching depth, they have a nice array of major league ready or near-major league ready arms that have a diverse set of outlooks. 24 year old Alex Reyes has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, but Tommy John surgery in 2017 and a back injury in 2018 have slowed him down just as he reached the majors. However, he's just so talented that he's still the top prospect in a pretty decent Cardinals system. Over 23 minor league innings across four levels this year, he did not allow a run and put just 14 people on base for a 0.61 WHIP, striking out 44 to just seven walks. He also threw four shutout innings in the majors, striking out two and walking two and giving himself 27 shutout innings overall. He throws in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball while also dropping a hammer curveball and a pretty good changeup, stuff which is good enough to miss plenty of bats even at the major league level. While his command isn't great, the stuff is so good that he can be a #3 starter even with mediocre command, and if his command can take a step forward with consistent, healthy innings under his belt, he could be an ace and be one soon. 24 year old Dakota Hudson is also on the cusp of the majors, though he's a very different pitcher. The 2016 first round pick (34th overall) out of Mississippi State effectively handled AAA Memphis this year, going 13-3 with a 2.50 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 87/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings before a moderately successful MLB stint (2.63 ERA, 19/18 K/BB in 27.1 IP). He throws a mid 90's fastball with good sink as well as a very good cutter, though the rest of his arsenal is just average. Because he has decent enough command and those two pitches are so good, he can crack it as a starter up at AAA, but it remains to be seen whether he will last as a starter long term in the majors, where he'll need to be more precise with his command than he has been. Even if he doesn't develop any further and remains as is, Hudson would make a very good reliever, so the floor is high. 26 year old Daniel Poncedeleon broke through this year, going 9-4 with a 2.24 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 110/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings at Memphis and then posting a 2.73 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings in St. Louis. He's kind of a pitcher where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts, with his low to mid 90's sinker headlining a pretty average arsenal that he commands decently well. His 2017 season ended with a line drive off the head, but he bounced back in 2018 and has over-performed everywhere. His scouting report says #5 starter/long reliever, but if he keeps pitching the way he has, he could stick in the rotation for a long time. 22 year old Genesis Cabrera will continue to get noticed due to his fantastic name, but he's also an important prospect after coming over in the Tommy Pham trade in July. He posted a 4.17 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 148/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.1 innings, mostly at AA (plus two innings at AAA), showing one of the better fastball/slider combinations in the minors but lacking refinement elsewhere in his game. He ends up being more hittable than he should be when he falls behind in the count and when hitters don't have to worry about a good changeup, but the Cardinals do very well with refining pitchers and more time in the St. Louis system could help him break out into the possible mid-rotation starter he could be. Having just turned 22, he has plenty of time to master AAA and get ready for the majors. 24 year old Ryan Helsley has quietly handled the minors and, like Poncedeleon, seems to over-achieve everywhere he pitches. This year, he posted a 3.97 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and an 82/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings at AA Springfield, Memphis, and 2.2 rehab innings in complex ball. He throws a little harder than Poncedeleon but otherwise has a similarly average skill set, but his natural feel for the game has helped him reach the highest level of the minors. In 2019, he has a chance to prove he can start in the majors despite a relieverish profile. Lastly, 22 year old Jacob Woodford flew through the low minors after being drafted in the competitive balance round (39th overall) out of high school in Tampa, but he struggled for the first time in his career upon reaching the high minors this year. Over 28 starts, he had a 4.90 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, and a 101/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 145 innings at Springfield and Memphis, much different than his 3.31 ERA at Class A Peoria in 2016 and his 3.10 mark at High A Palm Beach in 2017. He throws in the low 90's with decent secondary stuff and enough command to make it work, and as the youngest pitcher in this section (by 18 days over Cabrera), he has plenty of time to make the adjustments.
Low and Mid Minors Pitchers: RHP Junior Fernandez, RHP Seth Elledge, RHP Griffin Roberts, and LHP Steven Gingery
There is not nearly as much depth in the low minors for the Cardinals as there is in the high minors, with some good upside but nothing elite. 21 year old Junior Fernandez throws in the upper 90's with a good changeup, but he lacks a good breaking ball and when he falls behind in the count, hitters can sit on his fastball. This past year, he posted a 3.52 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.2 innings at High A Palm Beach and AA Springfield, not missing nearly as many bats as he should. He's likely a reliever at this point, but if he brings in his command just a little, he may not need to develop a good breaking ball to be successful in the majors. 22 year old Seth Elledge, who came over from Seattle for Sam Tuivailala in July, is a more traditional relief prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pretty good slider/changeup set, which he commands better than Fernandez. In 2018, he posted a 2.13 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 74/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 innings between High A Modesto (Seattle) and AA Springfield. His ceiling is not as high as Fernandez's, but he is a more complete pitcher at this point and has a better chance to crack the majors and do so successfully. 22 year old Griffin Roberts was a competitive balance pick (43rd overall) out of Wake Forest this year, posting a 5.59 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 13/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 9.2 innings between complex ball and High A Palm Beach. He has a low to mid 90's fastball and a fantastic slider, one that on its own should get him up through the minors, though he'll have to improve his command and possibly add a tick to his fastball to become an elite reliever. The Cardinals believe he still has a chance at starting, in which case he'll have to continue to develop his changeup and there will be even more pressure on his command. Because he will miss the first 50 games of the season with a drug suspension and he's already old for his draft class (he'll be almost 23 when he's ready to return), I'd just stick him in the bullpen and let him move quickly through the minors. Lastly, 21 year old Steven Gingery was a fourth round pick out of Texas Tech this year, though he's a very different pitcher. He may get a late start on his 2019 season while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he has a good chance of returning early in the season. He's a 6'1" lefty who doesn't throw hard or have a good curveball, but he lives on his excellent changeup and commands his pitches very well. Gingery doesn't have the highest ceiling, but the Cardinals will try to help him sharpen his stuff just enough to move up through the minors as a back-end starter and get him to the major league mound fairly quickly once he's healthy. With his command and his swing and miss changeup, a little velocity or a sharper breaking ball could go a long way.
High Minors Hitters: C Andrew Knizner, OF Randy Arozarena, OF Justin Williams, OF Lane Thomas, 2B Max Schrock, SS Edmundo Sosa, 2B Ramon Urias, and SS Tommy Edman
As with the pitchers, most of the Cardinals' impact talent on offense is concentrated towards the top of the minor leagues. 23 year old Andrew Knizner is the one impact offensive prospect high in the minors, and Cardinals fans should be excited. Over 94 games between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis, he slashed .313/.368/.430 with seven home runs and a 48/27 strikeout to walk ratio, bringing his career minor league slash line to .310/.373/.460 over 242 games. He has hit everywhere he has been, making consistent hard contact even against advanced pitching and while he doesn't hit for too much power, he has enough pop in his bat to where he could start as a catcher once Yadier Molina relinquishes the job, if he ever does. While he's not a fantastic defender, he's good enough to where he's not a liability back there and with his bat, he'll at the very least be a very competent backup to Molina. 23 year old outfielders Randy Arozarena and Justin Williams have similar outlooks, both being toolsy outfielders on the verge of cracking the majors as good backups or solid regulars. Arozarena slashed .274/.359/.433 with 12 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and an 84/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between Springfield and Memphis, though he was better at the lower level (.396/.455/.681) than at the higher level (.232/.328/.348). Williams, meanwhile, slashed .252/.307/.379 with 11 home runs and a 98/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games just in AAA, also grounding out against Adam Conley in his only major league at bat. Arozarena is faster and a bit better of a defender, though Williams has a better track record at the plate and is more advanced for his age. Both have marginal power, though the Cardinals do well with these guys and both could be important bats. Expect one to end up starting at some point in a Stephen Piscotty capacity, while the other should end up a good fourth outfielder. 23 year old Lane Thomas had a great year statistically, slashing .264/.333/.489 with 21 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 134/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games between Springfield and Memphis, his combination of power, speed, and defense giving him some interesting upside. He's a breakout prospect who never hit more than eight home runs in a season prior to this year, so if he can maintain that power breakout next year, he could be in the rookie outfield mix with Arozarena and Williams. This group of four infielders gives the Cardinals great depth at every position, and 24 year old Max Schrock has the best bat of the four. The former South Carolina Gamecock was traded from Washington to Oakland for Marc Rzepczynski then to St. Louis for Stephen Piscotty, though he had his worst offensive season this year by slashing .249/.296/.331 with four home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Memphis (down from .321/.379/.422 in AA in 2017). Just 5'8", he's a scrappy player who is just a decent defender at second base but one who plays hard and makes consistent contact, striking out in just 7.9% of his plate appearances this year. 22 year old Edmundo Sosa is the best defender, though he can still swing it a bit, having slashed .270/.313/.420 with 12 home runs and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Springfield and Memphis this year. His bat is probably too light to start, as he lacks power and doesn't get on base like Schrock, but his defense should make him a useful utility man. Lastly, 24 year old Ramon Urias and 23 year old Tommy Edman are utility prospects with no standout tools who just do a little bit of everything. Urias, recently signed out of the Mexican League, slashed .300/.356/.516 with 13 home runs and a 58/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between Springfield and Memphis, hitting better at the lower level (.333/.406/.589) than the upper level (.261/.291/.430). Edman hit .301/.354/.402 with seven home runs and 30 stolen bases across the same two levels, showing more speed and less power. Both, along with Schrock and Sosa, will be in the utility infield mix in 2019.
Low and Mid Minors Hitters: 3B Nolan Gorman, 1B Luken Baker, 3B Elehuris Montero, OF Conner Capel, OF Dylan Carlson, and SS Delvin Perez
Down at the bottom of the St. Louis system, there's not much depth but there are a couple of guys who could be real difference makers. 18 year old Nolan Gorman might be the best prospect in the system, having just been drafted in the first round (19th overall) out of high school in Phoenix and destroying the Appalachian League in his debut. He slashed .350/.443/.664 with 11 home runs and a 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games with rookie level Johnson City in the Appy League, then slashed .202/.280/.426 with six more home runs and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 games after an aggressive promotion to Class A Peoria, totaling 17 home runs and a .291/.380/.570 line over 63 games. He has huge raw power that could produce 40 home runs per season in the majors, but his long swing was thought to be a potential impediment to making contact in pro baseball. So far, that has not been an issue at all, and even though 6'1" is a bit small for a slugger, Gorman has middle of the order upside for the Cardinals if he can continue to make contact against better and better pitching. His defense at third base is just average and may force a move to first base, but the bat will play. 21 year old Luken Baker was a second rounder (75th overall) in the same draft out of TCU, and he got off to a similarly hot start by slashing .319/.386/.460 with four home runs and a 35/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball and Peoria. The 6'4", 265 pound slugger has a very advanced bat that should move through the minors fairly quickly, though he has more 20-30 home run power than the 40 homer potential you'd expect given his size. He's limited to first base defensively but if he hits as expected, he should be able to work his way up to a starting spot or at least an important bench spot quickly. 20 year old Elehuris Montero had a breakout year in the mid minors this year, slashing .315/.371/.504 with 16 home runs and a 103/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Peoria and High A Palm Beach. He has power from the right side that he began to tap into in 2018, and he's a pretty advanced hitter for his age. He's not a great defender at third base but he has a great arm and may be able to stick there. If his power continues to grow, he could have another big season and push himself from an interesting upside play to a legitimate impact prospect. 21 year old Conner Capel and 20 year old Dylan Carlson give the Cardinals two more outfield bats to follow that could develop into nice role players in the future, with Capel coming over from the Indians in July and Carlson being a first round pick (33rd overall) out of high school near Sacramento in 2016. Capel slashed .257/.341/.376 with seven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 102/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A, while Carlson slashed .246/.348/.390 with 11 home runs, eight stolen bases, and an 88/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between Class A and High A. Both have marginal bats with good approaches and some present power, though neither has enough punch in their bats at this point to profile as more than future fourth outfielders. They're both good defenders, though Capel is faster, but Carlson has the slightly better bat and probably has the higher upside. Lastly, 20 year old Delvin Perez was the Cardinals' first round pick (23rd overall) out of high school in Puerto Rico in 2016, but the once-elite draft prospect has not panned out as planned so far. In 2018, he slashed .213/.301/.272 with one home run, eight stolen bases, and a 54/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games in short season State College, continuing to struggle in his transition to pro ball and leaving the Cardinals wondering what kind of prospect they have. He's still a great defender at shortstop and will continue to get chances due to both that and his draft pedigree, but he has to start hitting at some point or he'll just end up organizational filler.
Friday, July 13, 2018
2018 Draft Review: St. Louis Cardinals
First 5 rounds: Nolan Gorman (1-19), Griffin Roberts (CBA-43), Luken Baker (2-75), Mateo Gil (3-95), Steven Gingery (4-123), Nick Dunn (5-153)
Also notable: Lars Nootbaar (8-243), Brandon Riley (14-423), Connor Coward (26-783)
The Cardinals always seem to draft well with too many homegrown stars to count, and this year looks no different. They got some really good players, especially for where their picks were, and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple turned out to be stars. They drafted high schoolers in the first and third rounds but otherwise stuck with college players, not taking a third high schooler until the 22nd round. They also split it up between hitters and pitchers, leaning a little heavier on the hitters in the first ten rounds but overall striking good balance. With the hitters, they did seem to focus on power early, and this draft could fill out the middle of their lineup a few years down the road. As always, a good job by St. Louis.
1-19: 3B Nolan Gorman (my rank: 13)
Gorman is a high schooler from the Phoenix suburbs, showing perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. The left handed hitting third baseman generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball a mile, though the rest of his game could use some work. He takes some time to get his hands going and his swing is somewhat long, but his hands are so quick once they're moving that he shouldn't have too much trouble in the low minors. The Cardinals will surely work with him on shortening that swing in order to help him catch up to quicker fastballs in the mid and upper minors. At this point, he struggles a bit with breaking balls and looks a bit uncomfortable in the box against better pitching, so the Cardinals do have their work cut out for them. On defense, he could stick at third base, but first base is also a possibility. That's not the most glowing report, but Gorman's power is so great that it makes up for all of that and his upside is that of a 30-40 homer per year slugger. He signed for just over $3.2 million, right at slot, and he's slashing an excellent .313/.432/.597 with six home runs and a 16/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games after an aggressive assignment to the rookie level Appalachian League.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (my rank: 55)
This is a pick I wouldn't be thrilled with if I were a Cardinals fan, but Roberts does have a lot of upside for a college arm. The 6'3" righty out of Wake Forest had an interesting college career, pitching great as a reliever in 2017 (2.19 ERA, 80/32 K/BB, 53 innings) but regressing a little as a starter this year (3.82 ERA, 130/38 K/BB, 96.2 innings). As a starter, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he throws an excellent put-away slider and a decent changeup, though that fastball bumps into the upper 90's as a reliever. He does throw with some effort and his command isn't always there, but he continued striking guys out in bunches even with the transition to the rotation this year. He also dominated the Cape Cod League as a starter (1.97 ERA, 35/6 K/BB, 32 innings), and he just may be able to stick as a starter. He'll have to tighten that command and improve that changeup, but the upside is high here for a college pitcher. His age is a minor negative, as he already turned 22 in June and he is really the age of a young college senior. He signed for a little under $1.7 million, right at slot.
2-75: 1B Luken Baker (my rank: 51)
Baker is a slugger, plain and simple, and if he hadn't suffered a pair of freak, season-ending injuries in the past two seasons, I think he could have easily gone in the top 50 picks. Baker was one of the top recruits to make it to college for the 2016 season, setting the world on fire as a freshman both on the mound (3-1, 1.70 ERA, 41/16 K/BB, 47.2 innings) and at the plate (.379/.483/.577, 11 HR, 39/45 K/BB) at TCU. The Horned Frogs slugger gave up pitching after his freshman year, though he never matched his freshman numbers. This year he was slashing .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs and an 18/24 strikeout to walk ratio before going down with a broken leg 31 games into the season, a year after he had ended his sophomore season with a fractured arm. Baker is a huge, huge person, listed at 6'4", 265 pounds, and he looks it. As you'd expect, he's a bottom of the scale runner and isn't a great fielder either at first base, though he does have a cannon arm. His head jerks a bit when he swings, though the rest of his swing is clean, and he manages the strike zone exceptionally well for such a burly hitter (12.9% K rate, 17.1% walk rate). I would like to see just a little more power given his lack of defensive value, though I'm confident the Cardinals will bring it out of him. He signed for $800,000, which was a whole $400 over slot, and he is 1-4 with a home run, a strikeout, and a walk in his first two games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-95: SS Mateo Gil (unranked)
Gil is a high schooler from the Fort Worth area, showing power potential as well as the possibility of being able to play shortstop. He'll need a lot of work, as he swings and misses a lot and has not proven he can make his power play to the opposite field, something pitchers will take advantage of immediately. If the Cardinals can improve his pitch recognition and clean up his swing, Gil could be a dynamic contributor for the team. He signed for $900,000, which is $312,400 above slot, and he's slashing .254/.371/.288 with no home runs and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games in the Gulf Coast League.
4-123: LHP Steven Gingery (my rank: 70)
This is a great buy-low get for the Cardinals. Gingery was absolutely lights out at Texas Tech in 2017 (10-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB, 91 innings) but blew out his elbow in his first start of 2018 and needed Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the 6'2" lefty throws his fastball right around 90 but he commands it well and gets hitters out with possibly the best changeup in a draft stacked with changeups. He lacks much projection, but if he can make his fastball and curveball tick up just a little, he should have no trouble stepping into a major league rotation. The fact that he's very young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September also buys him time to return from surgery and still be on track. He signed for $825,000, which is $378,100 above slot.
26-783: RHP Connor Coward (unranked)
I watched plenty of Connor Coward at Virginia Tech, where he just finished his senior year 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 76/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 78 innings for the Hokies. He never put up big numbers, with his 4.75 ERA in 2017 marking his career best in Blacksburg, but he does have the chance to make something of himself as a minor leaguer. He's fairly inconsistent but throws his fastball in the low 90's and when his curve is working, it's a pretty good pitch. His delivery is easy, though he could use to take a step forward with his average command, and he has no trouble maintaining his stuff deep into starts. However, because his stuff is fringy overall, he'll be best off going to the bullpen where it can play up and give him a shot at major league middle or long relief. He signed for an undisclosed amount and is currently dominating the Gulf Coast League, tossing eleven innings and allowing one run (0.82 ERA) on five hits, no walks, and 13 strikeouts while averaging nearly three innings per appearance.
Un-drafted Free Agent Signing: C Joe Freiday (unranked)
The Cardinals also picked up Coward's battery mate, catcher Joe Freiday, as an un-drafted free agent. Freiday has always been a fringe-prospect, showing great tools but never quite putting it together on the field. Standing 6'3" and weighing 240 pounds, he's got plenty of power, but his aggressive approach leads to too many swings and misses. He struggled mightily on the Cape after his sophomore year in 2016 (.105/.105/.316, 1 HR, 11/0 K/BB) and hit mediocre as a junior in NCAA play in 2017 (.225/.315/.423, 8 HR, 53/13 K/BB). As a senior this year, his power dipped, and he finished at .250/.338/.400 with five home runs and a 33/15 strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out to me is the improvement in his plate discipline, which was visible if you watched him play, as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.3% to a more reasonable 20.6% while upping his walk rate from 7.9% to 9.4%. He chased fewer pitches and was more willing to go the other way, but he can really turn on balls on the inner half. On defense, he moves well and can block his share of balls in the dirt, but he really stands out for his excellent arm strength that generated consistent pop times below 2.00. He'll have a long road to the bigs because even with the improvement in his plate discipline, he still swings and misses far too much and will be exploited by pro pitching. So far in the Gulf Coast League, he's slashing .286/.500/.286 with no extra base hits and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in four games.
Others: 5th rounder Nick Dunn comes from the University of Maryland, where he finished his junior year slashing .330/.419/.561 with ten home runs and a 19/32 strikeout to walk ratio. He plays second base and uses his very advanced approach at the plate and clean swing to help his average offensive tools play up. He also performed very well on the Cape over two years (.321/.394/.415, 2 HR, 35/34 K/BB in 81 games) and should be able to get to the majors quickly. He doesn't have too much upside but could be a fringe-starter who focuses on on-base ability. 8th rounder Lars Nootbaar comes from the University of Southern California, where he was much better as a sophomore (.304/.416/.473, 5 HR, 32/35 K/BB) than as a junior (.249/.357/.373, 6 HR, 37/34 K/BB). He's a contact hitting outfielder with good plate discipline that will help him transition well to pro ball, but the ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder, basically a cheaper Nick Dunn at the plate. 14th rounder Brandon Riley, a utility man from UNC, was also better as a sophomore (.317/.406/.496, 7 HR, 34/37 K/BB) than as a junior (.284/.386/.416, 5 HR, 47/45 K/BB), upping both his strikeout and walk rates this year. He has some speed and will provide more defensive value than Dunn and Nootbaar, and he should be a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the Cards that could get to the majors quickly.
Also notable: Lars Nootbaar (8-243), Brandon Riley (14-423), Connor Coward (26-783)
The Cardinals always seem to draft well with too many homegrown stars to count, and this year looks no different. They got some really good players, especially for where their picks were, and it wouldn't surprise me if a couple turned out to be stars. They drafted high schoolers in the first and third rounds but otherwise stuck with college players, not taking a third high schooler until the 22nd round. They also split it up between hitters and pitchers, leaning a little heavier on the hitters in the first ten rounds but overall striking good balance. With the hitters, they did seem to focus on power early, and this draft could fill out the middle of their lineup a few years down the road. As always, a good job by St. Louis.
1-19: 3B Nolan Gorman (my rank: 13)
Gorman is a high schooler from the Phoenix suburbs, showing perhaps the best raw power in the entire high school class. The left handed hitting third baseman generates huge exit velocities and can hit the ball a mile, though the rest of his game could use some work. He takes some time to get his hands going and his swing is somewhat long, but his hands are so quick once they're moving that he shouldn't have too much trouble in the low minors. The Cardinals will surely work with him on shortening that swing in order to help him catch up to quicker fastballs in the mid and upper minors. At this point, he struggles a bit with breaking balls and looks a bit uncomfortable in the box against better pitching, so the Cardinals do have their work cut out for them. On defense, he could stick at third base, but first base is also a possibility. That's not the most glowing report, but Gorman's power is so great that it makes up for all of that and his upside is that of a 30-40 homer per year slugger. He signed for just over $3.2 million, right at slot, and he's slashing an excellent .313/.432/.597 with six home runs and a 16/14 strikeout to walk ratio through 19 games after an aggressive assignment to the rookie level Appalachian League.
CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (my rank: 55)
This is a pick I wouldn't be thrilled with if I were a Cardinals fan, but Roberts does have a lot of upside for a college arm. The 6'3" righty out of Wake Forest had an interesting college career, pitching great as a reliever in 2017 (2.19 ERA, 80/32 K/BB, 53 innings) but regressing a little as a starter this year (3.82 ERA, 130/38 K/BB, 96.2 innings). As a starter, his fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and he throws an excellent put-away slider and a decent changeup, though that fastball bumps into the upper 90's as a reliever. He does throw with some effort and his command isn't always there, but he continued striking guys out in bunches even with the transition to the rotation this year. He also dominated the Cape Cod League as a starter (1.97 ERA, 35/6 K/BB, 32 innings), and he just may be able to stick as a starter. He'll have to tighten that command and improve that changeup, but the upside is high here for a college pitcher. His age is a minor negative, as he already turned 22 in June and he is really the age of a young college senior. He signed for a little under $1.7 million, right at slot.
2-75: 1B Luken Baker (my rank: 51)
Baker is a slugger, plain and simple, and if he hadn't suffered a pair of freak, season-ending injuries in the past two seasons, I think he could have easily gone in the top 50 picks. Baker was one of the top recruits to make it to college for the 2016 season, setting the world on fire as a freshman both on the mound (3-1, 1.70 ERA, 41/16 K/BB, 47.2 innings) and at the plate (.379/.483/.577, 11 HR, 39/45 K/BB) at TCU. The Horned Frogs slugger gave up pitching after his freshman year, though he never matched his freshman numbers. This year he was slashing .319/.443/.575 with nine home runs and an 18/24 strikeout to walk ratio before going down with a broken leg 31 games into the season, a year after he had ended his sophomore season with a fractured arm. Baker is a huge, huge person, listed at 6'4", 265 pounds, and he looks it. As you'd expect, he's a bottom of the scale runner and isn't a great fielder either at first base, though he does have a cannon arm. His head jerks a bit when he swings, though the rest of his swing is clean, and he manages the strike zone exceptionally well for such a burly hitter (12.9% K rate, 17.1% walk rate). I would like to see just a little more power given his lack of defensive value, though I'm confident the Cardinals will bring it out of him. He signed for $800,000, which was a whole $400 over slot, and he is 1-4 with a home run, a strikeout, and a walk in his first two games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League.
3-95: SS Mateo Gil (unranked)
Gil is a high schooler from the Fort Worth area, showing power potential as well as the possibility of being able to play shortstop. He'll need a lot of work, as he swings and misses a lot and has not proven he can make his power play to the opposite field, something pitchers will take advantage of immediately. If the Cardinals can improve his pitch recognition and clean up his swing, Gil could be a dynamic contributor for the team. He signed for $900,000, which is $312,400 above slot, and he's slashing .254/.371/.288 with no home runs and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 games in the Gulf Coast League.
4-123: LHP Steven Gingery (my rank: 70)
This is a great buy-low get for the Cardinals. Gingery was absolutely lights out at Texas Tech in 2017 (10-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 107/29 K/BB, 91 innings) but blew out his elbow in his first start of 2018 and needed Tommy John surgery. When healthy, the 6'2" lefty throws his fastball right around 90 but he commands it well and gets hitters out with possibly the best changeup in a draft stacked with changeups. He lacks much projection, but if he can make his fastball and curveball tick up just a little, he should have no trouble stepping into a major league rotation. The fact that he's very young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September also buys him time to return from surgery and still be on track. He signed for $825,000, which is $378,100 above slot.
26-783: RHP Connor Coward (unranked)
I watched plenty of Connor Coward at Virginia Tech, where he just finished his senior year 2-7 with a 5.19 ERA, a 1.44 WHIP, and a 76/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 78 innings for the Hokies. He never put up big numbers, with his 4.75 ERA in 2017 marking his career best in Blacksburg, but he does have the chance to make something of himself as a minor leaguer. He's fairly inconsistent but throws his fastball in the low 90's and when his curve is working, it's a pretty good pitch. His delivery is easy, though he could use to take a step forward with his average command, and he has no trouble maintaining his stuff deep into starts. However, because his stuff is fringy overall, he'll be best off going to the bullpen where it can play up and give him a shot at major league middle or long relief. He signed for an undisclosed amount and is currently dominating the Gulf Coast League, tossing eleven innings and allowing one run (0.82 ERA) on five hits, no walks, and 13 strikeouts while averaging nearly three innings per appearance.
Un-drafted Free Agent Signing: C Joe Freiday (unranked)
The Cardinals also picked up Coward's battery mate, catcher Joe Freiday, as an un-drafted free agent. Freiday has always been a fringe-prospect, showing great tools but never quite putting it together on the field. Standing 6'3" and weighing 240 pounds, he's got plenty of power, but his aggressive approach leads to too many swings and misses. He struggled mightily on the Cape after his sophomore year in 2016 (.105/.105/.316, 1 HR, 11/0 K/BB) and hit mediocre as a junior in NCAA play in 2017 (.225/.315/.423, 8 HR, 53/13 K/BB). As a senior this year, his power dipped, and he finished at .250/.338/.400 with five home runs and a 33/15 strikeout to walk ratio. What stands out to me is the improvement in his plate discipline, which was visible if you watched him play, as he dropped his strikeout rate from 32.3% to a more reasonable 20.6% while upping his walk rate from 7.9% to 9.4%. He chased fewer pitches and was more willing to go the other way, but he can really turn on balls on the inner half. On defense, he moves well and can block his share of balls in the dirt, but he really stands out for his excellent arm strength that generated consistent pop times below 2.00. He'll have a long road to the bigs because even with the improvement in his plate discipline, he still swings and misses far too much and will be exploited by pro pitching. So far in the Gulf Coast League, he's slashing .286/.500/.286 with no extra base hits and a 5/6 strikeout to walk ratio in four games.
Others: 5th rounder Nick Dunn comes from the University of Maryland, where he finished his junior year slashing .330/.419/.561 with ten home runs and a 19/32 strikeout to walk ratio. He plays second base and uses his very advanced approach at the plate and clean swing to help his average offensive tools play up. He also performed very well on the Cape over two years (.321/.394/.415, 2 HR, 35/34 K/BB in 81 games) and should be able to get to the majors quickly. He doesn't have too much upside but could be a fringe-starter who focuses on on-base ability. 8th rounder Lars Nootbaar comes from the University of Southern California, where he was much better as a sophomore (.304/.416/.473, 5 HR, 32/35 K/BB) than as a junior (.249/.357/.373, 6 HR, 37/34 K/BB). He's a contact hitting outfielder with good plate discipline that will help him transition well to pro ball, but the ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder, basically a cheaper Nick Dunn at the plate. 14th rounder Brandon Riley, a utility man from UNC, was also better as a sophomore (.317/.406/.496, 7 HR, 34/37 K/BB) than as a junior (.284/.386/.416, 5 HR, 47/45 K/BB), upping both his strikeout and walk rates this year. He has some speed and will provide more defensive value than Dunn and Nootbaar, and he should be a high floor, low ceiling prospect for the Cards that could get to the majors quickly.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Third Basemen
Much like in the majors, third base is absolutely loaded in this class, with five players having the potential to go in the first round, three of which could go in the top half. Some of these guys could move to first base, but those who can stick at third have less pressure on their bats than their first base counterparts, and many of the game's best players today man the hot corner.
1. Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
Part of one of the best one-two punches in the middle of any lineup in college baseball, Bohm took off this year with 16 home runs and a .339/.436/.625 slash line, walking way more (39) than he struck out (28). Though he'll probably need a slight swing change to get to his power more often in pro ball, the power is real right now, and he is arguably the best present hitter in the class. He destroyed the Cape Cod League as well (5 HR, .351/.399/.513, 21/12 K/BB), and for a power hitter, it is very difficult to get the ball by him. His defense at third base is just adequate, and he might have to move to first base eventually, but he's got plenty of bat to profile there and could end up an All Star. He's unlikely to fall out of the top ten picks.
2. Jonathan India (Florida)
While it's hard to view Bohm as anything but the best third baseman in the class, Jonathan India is making it tough to call it a slam dunk. Despite facing SEC pitching, which is the toughest in the NCAA, he still slashed .364/.504/.733 with 18 home runs and more walks (49) than strikeouts (48) for the Gators. Those ridiculous numbers were the product of better pitch recognition and improved physical shape, and projects to impact the game in a lot of ways as a pro. While he will never have Bohm's power, he matches him in bat to ball ability with a quick swing and strong wrists, and his defense is good enough that he can be a net positive in the field. He also runs well. The only thing knocking him down is the question of whether his power will play with wood bats, as he carries just a .398 slugging percentage and one home run over 36 career games in the Cape Cod League and his power comes more through quick and strong wrists than it does through whip or loft in his swing. He'll likely join Bohm in the top half of the first round.
3. Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ)
Gorman has arguably the best power in the high school class, having won a pair of home run derbies on the showcase circuit and showing quick hands and a powerful swing that gets the job done with regularity. He sometimes struggles with breaking balls, which might push him to the second half of the first round, but he hit well on the showcase circuit and it's not a huge issue. His swing is long and he swings and misses some when he gets his hands going too late, but he is receptive to coaching and could be a power hitting starter at the next level. His defense is just alright, but he does have a chance to stay at third. He's committed to Arizona.
4. Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
Eierman isn't as safe a bet as the other two college hitters ahead of him, but he offers just as much ceiling as India. He had an excellent sophomore season in 2017, slashing .313/.431/.675 with 23 home runs, but he changed his approach this year to try to hit more home runs and it backfired, leading to a .292/.385/.525 line with ten home runs this year. Originally considered a shortstop prospect, he's now looking more like a third baseman, but he should have above average defense there. Scouts like his grinder mentality, so if he can get back to his old approach at the plate with pro coaching, he has the ability to be a power hitting, slick fielding third baseman. However, even with his old approach, he struck out 20.3% of the time as a sophomore, which could lead to problems down the road. He probably falls out of the first round, but not by too much.
5. Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
Magnolia High School, which sits just past the very edge of the subdivided northwestern Houston suburbs, might have two players picked in the first round in Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans is considered the slightly better prospect of the two, showing a clean swing, good power/contact balance, and good enough defense to stay at third base. Nothing really stands out about him, but he's competent across the board, and if a pro team can add some lift to his flat swing, he could have above average power while still getting on base at a good clip. He's committed to Kansas, where his brother plays.
Others: Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL), Nick Northcut (Mason HS, OH), Cory Acton (American Heritage HS, FL)
1. Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
Part of one of the best one-two punches in the middle of any lineup in college baseball, Bohm took off this year with 16 home runs and a .339/.436/.625 slash line, walking way more (39) than he struck out (28). Though he'll probably need a slight swing change to get to his power more often in pro ball, the power is real right now, and he is arguably the best present hitter in the class. He destroyed the Cape Cod League as well (5 HR, .351/.399/.513, 21/12 K/BB), and for a power hitter, it is very difficult to get the ball by him. His defense at third base is just adequate, and he might have to move to first base eventually, but he's got plenty of bat to profile there and could end up an All Star. He's unlikely to fall out of the top ten picks.
2. Jonathan India (Florida)
While it's hard to view Bohm as anything but the best third baseman in the class, Jonathan India is making it tough to call it a slam dunk. Despite facing SEC pitching, which is the toughest in the NCAA, he still slashed .364/.504/.733 with 18 home runs and more walks (49) than strikeouts (48) for the Gators. Those ridiculous numbers were the product of better pitch recognition and improved physical shape, and projects to impact the game in a lot of ways as a pro. While he will never have Bohm's power, he matches him in bat to ball ability with a quick swing and strong wrists, and his defense is good enough that he can be a net positive in the field. He also runs well. The only thing knocking him down is the question of whether his power will play with wood bats, as he carries just a .398 slugging percentage and one home run over 36 career games in the Cape Cod League and his power comes more through quick and strong wrists than it does through whip or loft in his swing. He'll likely join Bohm in the top half of the first round.
3. Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ)
Gorman has arguably the best power in the high school class, having won a pair of home run derbies on the showcase circuit and showing quick hands and a powerful swing that gets the job done with regularity. He sometimes struggles with breaking balls, which might push him to the second half of the first round, but he hit well on the showcase circuit and it's not a huge issue. His swing is long and he swings and misses some when he gets his hands going too late, but he is receptive to coaching and could be a power hitting starter at the next level. His defense is just alright, but he does have a chance to stay at third. He's committed to Arizona.
4. Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
Eierman isn't as safe a bet as the other two college hitters ahead of him, but he offers just as much ceiling as India. He had an excellent sophomore season in 2017, slashing .313/.431/.675 with 23 home runs, but he changed his approach this year to try to hit more home runs and it backfired, leading to a .292/.385/.525 line with ten home runs this year. Originally considered a shortstop prospect, he's now looking more like a third baseman, but he should have above average defense there. Scouts like his grinder mentality, so if he can get back to his old approach at the plate with pro coaching, he has the ability to be a power hitting, slick fielding third baseman. However, even with his old approach, he struck out 20.3% of the time as a sophomore, which could lead to problems down the road. He probably falls out of the first round, but not by too much.
5. Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
Magnolia High School, which sits just past the very edge of the subdivided northwestern Houston suburbs, might have two players picked in the first round in Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans is considered the slightly better prospect of the two, showing a clean swing, good power/contact balance, and good enough defense to stay at third base. Nothing really stands out about him, but he's competent across the board, and if a pro team can add some lift to his flat swing, he could have above average power while still getting on base at a good clip. He's committed to Kansas, where his brother plays.
Others: Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL), Nick Northcut (Mason HS, OH), Cory Acton (American Heritage HS, FL)
Friday, January 5, 2018
2018 Draft: An Early Top 10 Prospect List (1/5/2018)
Aside from a few rumors, there isn't much going on in the world of baseball, so I'm taking some time during this slow Hot Stove period to look over what looks like, for now, the top of the draft. Things will undoubtedly change between now and June, but here are my top ten prospects for now:
1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.
2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.
3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.
4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity, he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.
5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.
6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.
7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.
8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.
9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.
10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.
Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.
2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.
3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.
4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity, he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.
5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.
6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.
7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.
8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.
9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.
10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.
Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
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