2020 Draft Review: Seattle Mariners

1-6: RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia
2-43: OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M
CBB-64: RHP Connor Phillips, McLennan CC
3-78: 2B Kaden Polcovich, Oklahoma State
4-107: 3B Tyler Keenan, Mississippi
5-137: RHP Taylor Dollard, Cal Poly

The Mariners left about $300,000 of their bonus pool unspent, which doesn't really sit right with me. They didn't severely short anybody with five figure bonuses, which is good, but the draft is the single most cost-effective way to add talent to your system, and if you don't do everything you can to maximize the talent you get through the draft, then I'm sorry but you're not trying to win. Anyways, I think the end product of this draft class is pretty decent, but for a team with four of the first 78 picks, I don't see a ton of upside. It's a pretty safe bet class, which there's nothing wrong with, but they had the money to chase some additional upside without sacrificing the "safe bet" factor and they chose not to. So overall I'd give the class a C, even though I like a lot of the names. They brought in a lot of talent, but they could have done better.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-6: RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia (my rank: 5)
This is probably my favorite pick the Mariners made this year, as there is a lot of pressure to get the sixth overall pick right and I think they did that. Seattle loves pitchers who can control the strike zone (see Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, etc.) so Hancock certainly fits right into that picture. He has better command than Gilbert and better stuff than Kirby and even though he was the third pitcher taken this year behind Max Meyer and Asa Lacy, he was arguably the most complete pitcher in the entire class. Hancock is a 6'4" right handed pitcher from the small town of Cairo in far south Georgia, just about 30 miles north of Tallahassee, and he has been absolutely dominant for the Bulldogs. He was one of the best pitchers in the country in 2019, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings against a tough SEC schedule, though the shortened 2020 was a bit more up and down with a 3.75 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 34/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings against weaker competition. Hancock has it all as a pitcher; he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, reaching as high as 99 at times, and adds a full array of secondary pitches. His slider, curveball, and changeup all flash plus, though for the most part they're closer to above average than plus. Still, they all play up because he commands everything extremely well, tunneling pitches off each other and creating lots of confused swings from his competition. With a durable frame and a four weapons that he can command, there are virtually no downsides in his profile. However, because his name was discussed in the first overall conversation for so long, things undoubtedly get nitpicked, and there were some nits to pick with Hancock. While his slider, curve, and changeup all flash plus, none are the elite strikeout pitches you find in guys like Lacy, Meyer, or Garrett Crochet. Okay, well that's it. That's all the criticism I have for Hancock. He has ace upside with a most likely outcome being a strong #2, and very little risk so long as he stays healthy. I really like the pick at #6. Hancock signed for $5.7 million, which was about $40,000 below slot value (money they never redeployed anywhere else). Pre-draft profile here.

2-43: OF Zach DeLoach, Texas A&M (my rank: 76)
Zach DeLoach went to high school in Carrollton, Texas, just down the street from where I currently live in Addison. At Texas A&M, he started off his career in unremarkable fashion, slashing .236/.338/.338 with five home runs over 117 games between his freshman and sophomore seasons. However, his strong plate discipline and untapped raw power earned him a trip to the elite Cape Cod League, over the summer, and DeLoach showed up a different hitter with a shorter, cleaner swing. There, he hit .368/.434/.529 with five home runs and ten stolen bases in 43 games against very strong competition, and that continued into the spring, where he hit .421/.547/.789 with six home runs, six stolen bases, and just three strikeouts to 14 walks in 18 games, albeit against pretty weak competition. Right now, it's impossible to tell whether the shutdown helped or hurt him – the Mariners clearly buy into the new DeLoach being the real one, and they think he would have continued to rake in SEC competition, which would have vaulted him into the first round. However, if his numbers slipped in the SEC, it could have knocked him out of the top 100. His most well-established attribute is his strong plate discipline, which he has shown throughout his career in College Station and which enables him to handle advanced pitching pretty easily. There is above average power in his 6'2" frame that he has tapped much more consistently as of late, though his swing can still be a bit rigid at times and it's not quite as explosive as some other bats in this range. It's certainly better than it was early in his career, though, and given the legitimate success he had with wood bats against great pitching on the Cape, you would have to be a real pessimist to think he won't continue to hit in pro ball. There is a fairly wide gap in his likely outcomes in pro ball, and I see him settling in as a relatively streaky 20-25 home run hitter with solid on-base percentages, albeit with pretty ordinary defense in the outfield. He signed for $1.73 million, right at slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBB-64: RHP Connor Phillips, McLennan CC (my rank: 94)
This pick was the Mariners' big upside play, albeit one with significant risk. Phillips found his name in some top five rounds conversations coming out of high school just outside Houston last year, but rather than attend LSU when his asking price dropped him to the 35th round, he switched up his commitment to McLennan CC in Waco so he could be draft eligible this year. That paid off when he came out of the gate looking like he had taken a tangible step forward with his stuff. The fastball now sits in the mid 90's and can get up to 98, coming from a very loose arm puts some nice movement on it and that can hold that velocity deep into games as well. He's continuing to work on differentiating his curveball and slider, but he's made progress on that front and both could be plus pitches in time. The changeup isn't quite there yet, but Phillips only turned 19 in May, so he has plenty of time. The same goes for his command, which can be very spotty at times, but his arm works so well that the Mariners are confident they can continue to build that piece of his game. The 6'2" teenager has the look of an impact starting pitcher if he can continue to refine the rough edges of his game, though he'll need to continue the positive trajectory he's on in order to make the majors at all. Phillips' $1.05 million signing bonus was right at slot value for the 64th pick. Pre-draft profile here.

3-78: 2B Kaden Polcovich, Oklahoma State (unranked)
This was a little bit of a surprising pick, but an interesting one. Kaden Polcovich spent two years at Northwest Florida State CC before transferring back to Oklahoma to play for Oklahoma State, and he was off to a red hot start this year by slashing .344/.494/.578 with a pair of home runs and a 10/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games. That came on the heels of a strong Cape Cod League performance, so it wasn't a fluke. Listed at just 5'8", he's a high energy player that outplays his size consistently, sort of like Dustin Pedroia. Polcovich will attack pitches in the zone, but he's also a very disciplined hitter who will let the bad pitches by and draw plenty of walks when he doesn't see pitches he likes. He also brings a leveraged, powerful swing from the both sides of the plate, which enables him to hit for more power than you'd expect. Together, that's a projection for perhaps 10-15 home runs a year with solid on-base percentages, putting him right on the fringe of starting. The bat will have to carry him because despite playing gritty defense, his physical tools are fairly limited and he'll probably end up at second base or in the outfield without much net value provided. A theoretically low ceiling, non-money saving guy without much track record prior to the last calendar year is a fairly risky pick in the early third round, but I'm definitely interested to see where it goes (technically they did save money, but since they never redeployed it anywhere else, it didn't help the team in any way). Polcovich signed for $575,000, which was $218,000 below slot value (money which went wasted).

4-107: 3B Tyler Keenan, Mississippi (my rank: 112)
Keenan is a big power bat out of Ole Miss, where he's raked for three years with a .306/.419/.550 career line, 31 home runs, and a 104/72 strikeout to walk ratio over 139 games. The Raleigh-area native is a huge guy at a listed 6'4" and 240 pounds, waving the bat around like a twig in his hands. His strength enables him to produce big raw power from the left side of the plate, and he's gotten to it very consistently against good SEC competition with those 31 home runs over three years, including 15 in 68 games last year. He's also a pretty solid contact hitter for his size and profile, getting on base very consistently throughout his career and slashing .403/.488/.791 with seven home runs over 17 games against weaker competition in the shortened 2020 season. There is a slight hitch in his swing that is reminiscent of Gary Sheffield, one which he'll probably need to iron out a little bit to make enough contact in pro ball. Together, that's probably a 20-25 home run profile with decent on-base percentages, but even more so than Polcovich, his bat will have to carry him. He's listed as a third baseman and has played there so far, but he's not quite agile to handle a modern third baseman's range requirements and is more likely to end up at first base. Personally, I see him as a platoon bat who could be an impact #5-type hitter if he ends up towards the upper end of his projections. Keenan signed for $500,000, which was $43,500 below slot (money which they never redeployed anywhere else).

5-137: RHP Taylor Dollard, Cal Poly (unranked)
Dollard spent his first two years at Cal Poly as a very successful reliever, then was dominant in the same role in the Cape Cod League (1.55 ERA, 0.58 WHIP, 27/1 K/BB in 17.1 IP). His transition to the rotation went really well in 2020, where he had a 1.67 ERA and a 36/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings against some pretty solid competition that included Michigan and Baylor. The velocity isn't overwhelming, sitting around 90 and really only topping out at 93, but he throws a very good slider that functions as his out pitch and a workable changeup. Everything plays up because he commands it well, and the pitch metrics are very good on both the fastball and the slider. The 6'3" righty from the LA-area will need a healthy velocity boost to succeed as a starting pitcher in pro ball, giving him the ceiling of a #3/#4 guy if he can get consistently into the low 90's and improves his changeup. If he can't add 2-3 miles per hour to his fastball, he likely fits as a decent reliever. Personally, I like his chances to remain a starter. He signed right at slot value for $406,000.

Undrafted: C Ty Duvall, Vanderbilt (unranked)
Duvall has been a mainstay in Nashville for four years now, slashing a career .284/.423/.418 with eight home runs and an 83/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games. There isn't a ton of power here from the Ohio native, rather a consistent bat with plenty of experience both handling and hitting against high level pitching. Like most of these senior-sign catchers, he's a glove first player, and he was the guy behind the plate that helped Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter develop into arguably the top two pitching prospects remaining in college baseball.

Undrafted: C Matt Scheffler, Auburn (unranked)
His college jersey may have said Auburn, but the Mariners are Matt Scheffler's hometown team. He grew up just across the lake in Kirkland and graduated from Lake Washington High School, then spent two years at Piece Community College in Los Angeles. He transferred across the country to Auburn for his junior year, and after putting up unremarkable numbers (.260/.331/.342, 2 HR), he was off to a red hot start to 2020 with a .412/.516/.549 line, a home run, and a 4/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games. He's a good defender who will stick behind the plate, and his offensive emergence in 2020 shows that he should hit enough to move through the minors. He probably won't hit for a ton of power, but Scheffler has always been very good about making consistent contact and has struck out just 30 times in 77 games for the Tigers. Unless he suddenly starts tapping real power, it's a pretty clear backup profile, albeit with a little bit of upside at the plate.

Spencer Torkelson vs Austin Martin: The 1-1 Discussion

Last year, the Orioles gave some thought to players like Bobby Witt Jr. and Andrew Vaughn, but for the most part, it was a forgone conclusion that they would select Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman first overall, and they did. In 2020, while Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson has emerged as the clear frontrunner, Vanderbilt infielder/outfielder Austin Martin remains very much in the conversation, and it's certainly an interesting one. You have two players who are similar enough to cleanly compare as fellow college position players, but different enough to contrast as guys with very different skill sets. With that, let's dive into what the thought process between these two could look like for the Tigers.

The Tigers' Position
Having to decide between two or more great players at 1-1 is a great problem to have. The current state of the system is very pitching-heavy, led by a "big three" of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal, with Mize having been the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now the MLB draft is very different from its NFL and NBA counterparts for a lot of reasons, but perhaps the biggest is this: you don't draft for need. If the Tigers believed the best player available was a pitcher like Asa Lacy or Emerson Hancock, they absolutely should have drafted one of the two, regardless of how pitching-heavy the system was. But the good news for the Tigers is that Torkelson and Martin are generally considered better players than Lacy and Hancock, so they can fill easily a need while still taking the best player available.

The Case for Spencer Torkelson
Position: 1B. 2020 Stats: 6 HR, .340/.598/.780, 15/31 K/BB.
My original profile written here

Spencer Torkelson has the best bat in the class, period. Over two-plus years at Arizona State, he cracked 54 home runs while slashing .337/.463/.729 with more walks (110) than strikeouts (104) across 129 games. The power is double plus, playing to all fields, against velocity and against good offspeed stuff, and with wood bats. The contact ability is plus as well, as Torkelson is adept at recognizing offspeed pitches, getting the barrel to the ball, and keeping his strikeouts down. There is no question that he is going to hit and hit for power in pro ball and in the majors. To boot, he's young for the class and won't turn 21 until August.

While Austin Martin is a no-doubt future plus hitter, Torkelson's bat is better. The quickest, easiest, and most robust way to get ROI on your top prospect is for him to hit, and Torkelson will do that. Martin is going to provide more defensive value, especially if he can stick at shortstop, but sometimes you just have to avoid the urge to get too cute and check all the boxes. There is a generational power prospect right there for the taking; just do it.

The Case for Austin Martin
Position: IF/OF. 2020 Stats: 3 HR, .377/.507/.660, 2/10 K/BB, 3 SB.
My original profile written here

Torkelson doesn't have a monopoly on the whole "being a special hitter" thing. Martin cut his strikeout rate from 16.8% as a freshman to 10.5% as a sophomore to a minuscule 2.9% as a junior – just two K's in sixteen games. Typically, that kind of contact is reserved for slap hitters or players who otherwise just kind of spray line drives around the field with little hope for double digit home run totals, but Martin doesn't fit that profile. He is a legitimate impact hitter who doesn't settle for weak contact, driving the ball with authority to all fields and over fences. He's hit 13 home runs in 81 games since the start of 2019, all while slashing .389/.490/.614 with just 36 strikeouts. While he doesn't project to be a true power hitter and certainly not Torkelson-esque in home run output, he should be good for anywhere from 15-25 home runs annually, all while putting up high on-base percentages in the .400 range. Alex Bregman had a remarkably similar profile in college, and he hit 41 home runs in 2019.

Martin is a hitting machine while also providing significantly more defensive value than Torkelson. Having watched Martin play various positions around the diamond, scouts have seen plenty to imply he could be an above average defender at shortstop. He has been surrounded by better defenders throughout his career, so he hasn't had the chance to prove it, but regardless, Martin will be providing value on both sides of the ball. Martin is the more well-rounded player, with a real chance of providing just as much offensive value as Torkelson with defense to boot. Don't let Torkelson's power distract from the fact that Martin is a special hitter who will have no trouble putting up big numbers against major league pitching with some speed to boot.

Other Options

LHP Asa Lacy, Texas A&M: The best pitcher in the class, Lacy is 14-5 with a 2.07 ERA and a 224/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 148 innings in his career at Texas A&M. He's big, he's mean, and he's left handed, which helps make his nasty four pitch mix play up with improving command to boot. Out of all the other options beyond Torkelson and Martin, Lacy seems like the "frontrunner among the dark horses" to go first overall. While that probably doesn't mean much given that the Tigers seem to be locking in on Tork, it is a testament to Lacy's immense upside combined with very little risk. Full profile here.

2B Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State: There are some that would argue that the only difference between Nick Gonzales and Austin Martin, at least offensively, is who they've played against. He is a career .399/.502/.747 hitter with 37 home runs and more walks (89) than strikeouts (79) in 128 games at New Mexico State. He hit .432/.532/.773 in 2019 then .448/.610/1.155 in 2020, and he also won the Cape Cod League MVP to prove his bat was for real. Still, the fact that he hasn't proved it day in and day out against SEC competition like Martin has, plus slightly worse defense, means that Martin remains a little bit ahead. His most likely landing spots are either the Royals at #4 or the Blue Jays at #5. Full profile here.

RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia: Hancock entered the 2020 season as an early favorite to go first overall, drawing comparisons to 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize after putting up a 1.99 ERA as a sophomore. His best attribute is his command, which helps his very good four pitch arsenal play up significantly. Not just a finesse pitcher, Hancock can hit 99 and all three of his offspeed pitches flash plus, giving him an extremely well-rounded profile. However, while the players listed above continued to push their stock forward this year, Hancock remained more or less in the same spot after a couple of up-and-down outings against Richmond and Georgia Tech, and some question his lack of a true, wipeout offspeed pitch. For that reason, he has fallen just behind Lacy, and he is perhaps equally likely to end up going anywhere from fourth to seventh overall. Full profile here.

OF Zac Veen, Spruce Creek HS [FL]: Veen has steadily risen throughout the past calendar year, going from a fringe first rounder to a potential top ten pick to now having his name discussed as high as #4 to the Royals. The top high school prospect in the class, Veen has tremendous power projection in his 6'4" frame, with a beautiful left handed swing that figures to tap every bit of it without selling out. While he has shown some minor swing and miss concerns, they're not a huge deal and Veen's advanced plate discipline gives plenty of hope that they will never be an issue. Still, the college bats are much more proven than Veen and he would be a stretch for the Tigers at 1-1. Full profile here.

Michiganders for the Later Rounds
It's always fun to see guys go to their hometown team, and while no Michiganders are in the running for the first round at all (the closest geographically are Ed Howard of Chicago and Dillon Dingler of Massillon, Ohio), there is a lot of talent available for their later picks.

RHP Jeff Criswell, Michigan (hometown: Portage): Criswell is the top prospect among Michigan natives, a Portage native (near Kalamazoo) turned Wolverines starter. He holds a 2.88 ERA over three years in Ann Arbor and brings a solid three pitch mix highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a fading changeup. There have been some command questions and he hasn't always been the most consistent pitcher, but with that three pitch mix, a 6'4" frame, and a track record in the Big Ten, he profiles as a solid second round arm. If he's still available for the Tigers' pick at #62, he could be a good fit. Full profile here.

OF Jordan Nwogu, Michigan (hometown: Ann Arbor): A graduate of Pioneer High School just down the road from Michigan's campus, Nwogu is actually on an academic scholarship for computer engineering, not an athletic one. That hasn't stopped him from being a career .334/.430/.545 hitter with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 125 games for the Wolverines, showing one of the better power/speed combinations in the class. He's big and athletic at a listed 6'3", 235 pounds, though his swing is a bit awkward and he's fairly raw on both sides of the ball. He could come into play for the Tigers' picks at #102 and #132.

2B/C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (hometown: Southfield): A product of Groves High School between Southfield and Birmingham in the Detroit suburbs, Warren is a guy who has just hit and hit wherever he's gone. He slashed .363/.498/.571 with eight home runs as a sophomore at Central Michigan in 2019, then hit well on the Cape as well. He's actually kind of the opposite of Nwogu, as he doesn't have a ton of power or speed but he just steadily gets the job done. Warren is a very patient hitter who hits a lot of line drives and who could be a utility infielder or decent regular at the big league level. He also has a little bit of experience behind the plate, which could seriously boost his value if he ends up moving back there and sticking. Like Nwogu, he figures into picks #102 and #132 for Detroit.

RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State (hometown: Cass City): The Thumb isn't known for producing a lot of baseball players, but Mason Erla has steadily risen from the small town of Cass City, about 50 miles northeast of Flint. A fairly unheralded recruit, he was solid but unspectacular over his first three years at Michigan State and went undrafted as a redshirt sophomore in 2019. That will change in 2020, as a huge uptick in his velocity helped him post a 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings this year. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a solid slider/changeup combination and throws strikes with all three, though on the down side he'll turn 23 in August and might be ticketed for relief. He joins Nwogu and Warren as being in play at #102 and #132.

LHP Sam Weatherly, Clemson (hometown: Howell): Weatherly grew up in Howell, roughly halfway between Detroit and Lansing on I-96, but headed south to Clemson for college. He was a well-known recruit, but command issues kept him from really succeeding over his first two years with the Tigers. He still struggled to throw strikes in 2020, walking 14 in 22.2 innings, but he posted a 0.79 ERA and struck out 43 in that span and leapt up draft boards. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but his bread and butter is an exceptional slider that's among the best left handed breaking balls in the class. His command could push him to the bullpen if he doesn't start throwing more strikes, but even small improvements could make him a very effective starter. If the Tigers are going to grab him, he probably makes the most sense at pick #102 if he's still available.

OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (hometown: Temperance): We'll finish off with Joey Wiemer, who grew up in Temperance, just over the border from Toledo, Ohio. He headed down I-75 for school, and he's been a bit of a conundrum for scouts ever since. Standing 6'5" with long arms, long legs, and long hair, he's hard to miss on the baseball field. He sets up with an even more outlandish batting stance with lots of hand movement and bat wiggle, and it has contributed to an unremarkable .264/.379/.408 career line with twelve home runs and 35 stolen bases over 122 games for the Bearcats. He's shown pretty good plate discipline despite everything going on in his stance and swing, and the hope is that pro coaching could help him leap forward and reach his potential. He makes most sense at pick #132.

2020 Draft Profile: Emerson Hancock

RHP Emerson Hancock, Georgia
Full index of draft profiles here

DoB: 5/31/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-0, 3.75 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 34/3 K/BB in 24 IP

Hancock came into the season drawing numerous comparisons to Casey Mize, a fellow SEC right hander with a similar build, stuff, and track record. Indeed, it was earned – in 2019, Hancock put up a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and did so against a tough SEC slate. However, 2020 was been a bit less steady. He allowed six runs in his opening start against a weaker Richmond lineup, then turned it around by tossing seven shutout innings against another weaker lineup, Santa Clara. Tasked with a stronger Georgia Tech team for his third start, he started strong by getting them to go nine up, nine down with five strikeouts the first time through the order. However, he started to run into trouble in the fourth and ended up allowing four runs over 5.2 innings. In his final start of the season on March 6th, he came back with his best by striking out twelve over 7.1 shutout innings against Massachusetts.

Despite his up and down start to the season, I don't think his stock really dropped too much. Rather, I think the illusion of perfection was kind of popped. Nobody thought he was perfect, but he hadn't done anything *wrong* to that point, so we were left with this image of an SEC ace who would just go in and put in consistent dominant outings against some of the best lineups in college baseball. Of course we know that pitchers are going to have off days, and he had a couple in 2020, but that doesn't change his projection as a future ace. Hancock stands 6'4" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which he backs up with a full arsenal of secondary pitches. His slider is his primary weapon with its late bite that plays extremely well off his fastball due to his ability to tunnel them together. Hancock also adds a curveball and a fading changeup, both of which miss plenty of bats and could be above average or plus pitches. To tie it all together, he brings well above average command and the ability to control the strike zone, and he's walked just three batters in 24 innings this season.

Overall, he checks all the proverbial "boxes" of a future ace: tall, throws hard, full set of secondaries, throws strikes, and has stayed mostly healthy. However, if we want to nitpick, which you have to do at the top of the draft, you can find a couple of things. His slider, curve, and changeup are all weapons, but none are the true plus to plus-plus finishers you see in Reid Detmers', Asa Lacy's, or CJ Van Eyk's curveball or Max Meyer's slider. Still, with his fourth best pitch (his curve) still being an out pitch, I wouldn't be too worried. The second nitpicky thing is health, as Hancock was shut down at the end of his sophomore season with general arm soreness, and 2020 was going to be about proving he could stay on the mound for a full season. It's a small concern considering he throws with very little effort from a durable frame, but it's one that he won't get a chance to assuage this year.

Hancock is the most complete pitching prospect in this year's deep class of pitching prospects. He has a very good chance to be an ace and aside from the injury risk that all pitchers face, he's about as low risk as it gets for pitchers. That's a fantastic outlook, one that stacks up well against any prospect in this year's class. A potential favorite to go first overall earlier in the spring, he might have fallen just a hair and now fits somewhere between picks four and seven, as it looks unlikely that any of Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, or Asa Lacy will fall out of the top three.

Game footage

2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1

The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.

The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.

- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.

- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.

- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.

The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.

- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.

- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.

- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.

- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.

Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.

- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.

- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.

- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.

Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.