2020 Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

1-7: SS Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State
CBA-31: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina
2-44: RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS (CA)
3-79: RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman
4-108: RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State
5-138: RHP Logan Hofmann, Northwestern State

I really like this draft class the Pirates pulled together. They started off with one of my favorite players in the class, Nick Gonzales, which really makes the draft class right there. From there, they picked up five consecutive right handed pitchers, starting with three famous names that each bring something a little different. Carmen Mlodzinski is more of a high floor, high-probability big league starter, while Jared Jones as a ton of upside as a high school power arm and Nick Garcia recently transitioned to pitching and was trending up really quickly. The last two picks, Jack Hartman and Logan Hofmann, were money savers, with Hartman bringing a live arm with great stuff and Hofmann looking more like a safe bet type of guy. Aside from right handed pitching, Cape Cod League success was a big theme here, as Gonzales won the league's MVP, Mlodzinski looked equally fantastic, and Garcia and Hofmann both put themselves on the map there before elevating their stock further this spring.
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1-7: SS Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State (my rank: 4)
Man, there is so much to love about Nick Gonzales, and getting him here at #7 is a steal. First, we'll start with his unreal stats, which include a .435/.549/.838 slash line, 28 home runs, and a 40/66 strikeout to walk ratio in 71 games over the past two seasons. Even though he played at altitude against a relatively weaker schedule, those are still unfathomably eye-popping numbers, and he went out and won the Cape Cod League MVP with a .349/.445/.599 line and eight home runs against elite competition to prove his bat is for real (I wrote about the importance of that summer performance in February here). He's an absolute joy to watch play, employing an extremely professional approach that he executes every time. Gonzales has a simple, but explosive, right handed swing that produces above average power despite his listed 5'10" height. He never sells out for home runs, though, instead looking to make hard, line drive contact from gap to gap, with his elite barrel control translating naturally into home runs. That gives him the upside of a 20-25 home runs hitter with high on-base percentages, a true all star projection if things work out. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but probably fits better at second base, where he should be solid average. On top of everything, he's known to have a great work ethic. Gonzales grew up just outside of Tucson, Arizona, and despite a couple of Division I offers, he decided to walk on at New Mexico State, where he outworked everyone around him and turned himself into the best hitter the school had ever seen. He signed at slot value for $5.43 million and I'm really excited to see where this pick goes. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-31: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina (my rank: 25)
Another nice pickup for the Pirates, especially since they got him to sign under slot. Growing up on Hilton Head Island, Carmen Mlodzinski (pronounced "muhjinski") was a well-known prep prospect with top five rounds buzz, but instead ended up heading to USC for college. He had an up and down freshman season in 2018, which is completely natural for a freshman in the SEC, then broke his foot in 2019 and never really got to show what he was capable of that year. Returning in the Cape Cod League, he elevated his stock perhaps more than any other pitcher in the league with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings. Mlodzinski entered the spring with the chance to go as high as the top half of the first round, but his stuff looked slightly flatter and after putting up a 2.84 ERA and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, he fell to the Pirates at pick #31. Over the summer, Mlodzinski sported a low to mid 90's fastball that kicked up as high as 99 at one point, in addition to a plus slider and an above average cutter and changeup. However, this spring, the velocity was still mostly there but his offspeed pitches looked more ordinary. His command, after being consistently above average on the Cape, was a bit more inconsistent. Scouts wanted to see him run through the SEC to determine whether it was just a slow start, or if the summer was really an anomaly. Still, even if the down spring is really the truth, there's a lot to like. Mlodzinski gets a lot of weak contact from his sinking fastball, and even this spring, he was able to touch 97. His ability to manipulate his slider between a breaking ball with more depth and a cutter with more velocity was still there, and he hits his spots pretty well. That gives him a nice floor as a back-end starter, but of course, the Pirates would like to see the summer version of Mlodzinski emerge once more. If that happens, the 6'2" right hander would look more like a #2 starter than a #5, and could make this a great pick. Overall, I see him as something of a safe bet #3/#4 guy. His $2.05 million signing bonus was about $260,000 below slot, which really adds to the value of this pick. Pre-draft profile here.

2-44: RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS, CA (my rank: 45)
Jared Jones is a really interesting arm, and the Pirates have a chance to pull some really big upside out of their second round pick. The Southern California native has been famous on the showcase circuit for a long time, having shown really loud stuff early in his high school career, but the lack of progress with his command allowed other names to pass him. He was moving back up boards again with a strong start to the 2020 season, pushing himself safely into the top 50 picks. A 6'1" right hander, he sits in the mid 90's with his power fastball and can crank it up a little higher at times, a product of tremendous arm strength despite a small-ish frame, at least small-ish by starting pitcher standards. Beyond the big fastball, he has a great slider that can flash true plus at times, a solid changeup, and a new curveball that he added during the pandemic. With big velocity and four potential above average pitches, there is a ton to like here. His command has been pretty shaky throughout his career, but it was creeping closer to average this spring, which likely is what made the Pirates feel comfortable enough to pull the trigger on a big over slot deal in the top 50. While his upside is really exciting, the idea of a skinny 6'1" kid throwing in the mid 90's makes me a little nervous about future arm surgeries, but he's proven durable up to this point. It cost the Pirates $2.2 million to buy him out of a Texas commitment, which was about $510,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

3-79: RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman (my rank: 61)
For their next pick, the Pirates went back to Southern California to grab Nick Garcia out of Division III Chapman University. A product of Junipero Serra High School in the San Francisco area, the same school that gave us Tom Brady, Garcia was recruited as an infielder and is actually pretty new to pitching. Chapman liked his arm strength and moved him to the mound as a sophomore, and the results have been electric – over two seasons, admittedly against weak competition, he is 13-1 with a 1.08 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 118/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings for the Panthers. He runs his fastball into the mid 90's and has reached as high as 98, adding an above average slider and cutter as well that he can work between. There isn't much of a changeup to this point, but that's nitpicking. With three above average pitches, solid average command, and a durable, 6'4" frame, Garcia is already brimming with starter's traits very early into his pitching career. He has an easy, repeatable delivery, so at this point, the Pirates just need to keep working with him to further sharpen that slider/cutter combination, refine his changeup, and keep up the progress with his command. With few miles on his arm, he theoretically brings less injury risk as well. Garcia is the kind of guy who might have been a much higher pick had he simply attended a Division I program, but I really like the pick here for the Pirates and I think he's well worth the $1.2 million signing bonus, which was about $419,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

4-108: RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State (unranked)
Here's another converted position player. A native of the Atlanta area, Hartman began his career hitting at Tallahassee Community College but transferred to the College of Central Florida (different than UCF) to begin pitching. After that, he bounced to Appalachian State, where he has pitched in relief for the Mountaineers. In two seasons, he has a 4.28 ERA and a 48/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, showing swing and miss stuff but a lot of inconsistency. At his best, he can run his fastball up to 97 and miss bats with a wipeout slider, but oftentimes, he can lose feel for that slider as well as the strike zone. The 6'3" righty is relatively young for a senior, only turning 22 the day after I published this piece, but the Pirates are going to need to work with him on his day to day consistency if he wants to stick. That's closer stuff at times, but he won't be much more than a middle reliever if he doesn't improve in that regard. Starting is probably unlikely here. He signed for $60,000, which was $478,200 below slot value.

5-138: RHP Logan Hofmann, Northwestern State (unranked)
This one is definitely an interesting arm. Logan Hofmann grew up in the tiny, remote town of Muenster, Saskatchewan (population 422), about 70 miles east of Saskatoon, then headed south to Colby Community College in rural western Kansas for school. Keeping it rural and keeping his southward path, Hofmann landed at Northwestern State in Natchitoches, Louisiana this year as a junior, and the results were spectacular; over four starts against so-so competition, he tossed 28 shutout innings and struck out 38 while walking just five batters (albeit with three unearned runs). Not the biggest guy in the world at 5'10", he's a polished strike thrower that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball to get swings and misses. The stuff isn't crazy loud, but it worked for him at NSU and it worked on the Cape, where he struck out 27 and walked eight over 20.1 innings of work. He's also very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until November, but regardless, he probably fits better in the bullpen long term, where hopefully the stuff will tick up a little bit. He signed for $125,000, which was $277,000 below slot value.

Undrafted: RHP Parker Brahms, Sacramento State (unranked)
Brahms was a senior sign out of Sacramento State, where he had a productive four year career, going 18-14 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 295/80 strikeout to walk ratio over 291.1 innings, making him the Hornets' all time strikeout leader. He was off to a really hot start in 2020, putting up a 1.14 ERA and a 32 strikeouts in 23.2 innings, and perhaps even more impressively, he didn't walk a single batter. His fastball sits in the upper 80's but has peaked at 92 at times, not overwhelming velocity but enough to get the job done. He adds a good curveball that has been his strikeout pitch, as well as a changeup, and a slight pause in his delivery can disrupt hitters' timing. It's probably a relief profile overall, where his fastball could spend more time above 90 than below, and his plus command could help him work between that fastball and curveball. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the 27th round last year but did not sign.

2020 Draft Profile: Nick Garcia

RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 4/20/1999.
2020 Stats: 4-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 36/7 K/BB in 27 IP

Nick Garcia might be the only player on this list whose high school is more famous than his college. A graduate of Junipero Serra High School in San Mateo, California, his fellow alumni include Tom Brady, Barry Bonds, NFL Hall of Famer Lynn Swann, and more recently, 2019 Giants first rounder Hunter Bishop. Not widely scouted back then, Garcia ended up at Division III Chapman University in the shadows of Angel Stadium, originally playing third base. After he hit just .268/.326/.293 as a freshman in 2018, the Panthers moved him to the mound, where he found immediate success; as a sophomore in 2019, Garcia put up a 0.64 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio across 56 innings out of the bullpen, earning a trip to the elite Cape Cod League. He opened a lot of eyes up there with a 3.17 ERA and a 20/11 strikeout to walk ratio across 17 innings, and then his stock leapt forward yet again in 2020 with a successful transition to the rotation: 2.00 ERA, 36/7 K/BB in 27 innings.

Over the course of barely a year, Garcia went from completely off the map to a top prospect for the 2020 draft. Listed at 6'4", Garcia's best attribute is his low to mid 90's fastball, which can have good running action and which has hit 98 before. Though he's a fresh arm, he's not just a pure power pitcher, adding in a slider and a cutter. The slider has deeper, two-plane tilt, while the cutter comes in with more velocity and consistently misses barrels. He doesn't have much of a changeup, but then again, he only started pitching as a sophomore and only began starting as a junior. The control (ability to throw strikes) is well ahead of the command (ability to spot pitches), but again, he hasn't been pitching for that long.

With an ideal pitcher's frame, three good pitches, and now the ability to start, Garcia has been trending up quickly. That said, there are a few caveats to his game. While his time on the Cape was overall a success, he did walk 11 in 17 innings in his only action against any kind of advanced hitting, and he's otherwise completely unproven above the Division III level. If he wants to start, he needs to refine his command and his changeup, which should theoretically be more likely given that he's so new to pitching, but theoretically is not a given until it actually happens.

If Garcia develops the way he's projected to, he could be an impact starting pitcher pretty easily. However, the depth of college pitching in this class in addition to this year's emphasis on track record could push him down a bit in the draft. He projects as a second round arm in a normal draft but could fall to the third this year if teams don't think they've seen enough from him as a starter to feel comfortable (he's only started five games, ever). Perhaps helping his case just a little is his April birthday, which isn't crazy young but it makes him nearly nine months younger than a guy like Wake Forest's Jared Shuster, who projects in a similar draft range.

Fall 2019 scrimmage (home plate view)
Same outing from CF view