The Marlins' system is in a much better spot than it was a year ago, and that's in large part due to pitching success at High A Jupiter, where Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera, and Trevor Rogers all took big steps forward. The acquisitions of Sixto Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Jesus Sanchez, and Jazz Chisholm, plus the drafting of JJ Bleday, have been huge as well, and Sixto in particular leads the system as a potential true ace. Meanwhile, the position player group has been a really interesting one. Just since the end of the 2018 season, they have spent over $19 million to reel in five amateur hitters: Bleday ($6.67M), Victor Victor Mesa ($5.25M), Jose Salas ($2.8M), Nasim Nunez ($2.2M), and Kameron Misner ($2.12M). They'll really be leaning on those players to carry the system from a hitting perspective, because their aggressive approach of pushing young, raw hitters through the minors has likely hurt the development of highly regarded amateurs like Connor Scott and Will Banfield, the two of whom they spent nearly $6 million on in the 2018 draft.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes*, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Clinton LumberKings, short season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*AAA affiliate will move from New Orleans, LA to Wichita, KS in 2020
Catcher
- Will Banfield (2020 Age: 20): High school catchers are the riskiest demographic to draft from, but the Marlins had success in the past with J.T. Realmuto so they grabbed Atlanta-area high schooler Will Banfield in the competitive balance round in 2018 and pushed him aggressively to Class A in his pro debut. Personally, I don't think that was the best decision, and in 2019 he slashed just .199/.252/.310 with nine home runs and a 121/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Class A Clinton. Banfield has good power in his right handed swing, but he struggled with swing and miss even in high school and his bat flat out wasn't ready for South Atlantic League pitching in his age-19 season. His glove, on the flip side, was, and his cannon arm means he should be an above average defensive catcher at the major league level. The bat will take patience, though, as he learns to find the strike zone and tap that power consistently, and that will probably take more time than the Marlins had hoped. He'll be just 20 for all of 2020, so if I were them, I'd have Banfield repeat Class A.
- Keep an eye on: Nick Fortes, Arquimedes Cumana
Corner Infield
- Lewin Diaz (2020 Age: 23): It's been a long time coming for Diaz, who signed with the Twins for $1.3 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2013, but 2019 was finally the breakout year everyone was waiting for. Despite being shipped to the Marlins midway through the season for Sergio Romo, he slashed .270/.321/.530 with 27 home runs and a 91/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games between High A and AA. Diaz's power is very, very real, as he uses his 6'4" frame and explosive left handed swing to drive the ball to all fields. He's an aggressive hitter who usually does not get deep enough into the count to draw walks, but he also has very good feel for the barrel that helps him keep his strikeout rates very low for a power hitter. That gives him a very favorable outlook at the next level if he can get over that last hump, and he could hit 30+ home runs annually. Defensively, he's limited to first base, but the bat should profile there.
- Evan Edwards (2020 Age: 22-23): The Marlins took Edwards as an under slot senior sign in the fourth round out of NC State in 2019, but a successful pro debut means he might be more than just a money saver. In extensive action, he hit .281/.357/.442 with nine home runs and an 83/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 games, mostly at Class A Clinton, showing that the big raw power he had in college will play up in pro ball. He struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances up at Clinton, which is a bit high, but I'd actually take that if I'm the Marlins. He has a long swing and there were questions as to how that would be exploited in pro ball, so high strikeout rates were already expected, and Class A is a fairly aggressive assignment for a player in his pro debut. The pressure will be on Edwards' bat to continue to produce, as he's a first baseman only, but I'm interested to see how he fares in a full season in 2020.
- Nic Ready (2020 Age: 23): You could say it's been a good year for Nic Ready. He put up a big senior year for the Air Force Academy in the spring, graduated and was personally congratulated by President Trump in May, then got drafted by the Marlins in the 23rd round in June. It didn't stop there, though, as he went on to slash .263/.311/.508 with ten home runs and an 82/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games at short season Batavia, also smacking 30 doubles and a pair of triples. He has a long swing that led to an elevated strikeout rate in pro ball, but he is also adept at finding the barrel and can spray deep line drives all over the park with ease. He'll have to shorten up his swing to keep from being exploited by higher level pitching, but it's as good of a start as you can have and with his natural Air Force work ethic, he's a good bet to outplay his draft position.
- Keep an eye on: Joe Dunand, Lazaro Alonso
Middle Infield
- Jazz Chisholm (2020 Age: 22): Chisholm is part of the new wave of Bahamian talent hitting pro ball, and so far, he might already be the best player from the islands since Andre Rodgers of the 1960's Giants, Cubs, and Pirates. Originally a Diamondbacks prospect, he was shipped to Miami in 2019 for Zac Gallen during a season in which he slashed .220/.321/.441 with 21 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 147/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games between the two AA affiliates. Despite standing just 5'11", he's an extra base machine with his explosive swing, which produces lots of hard contact to all fields. The end result is a lot of home run power and balls in the gaps, which he can leg out with his above average speed. The one thing holding Chisholm back offensively is his tendency to swing and miss, which is a product of his big swing. He does have the strike zone judgement to draw his share of walks, so he really needs to just focus on finding the barrel more and may need to tone down his big uppercut. He's also a good defensive shortstop, so he has the potential to impact the game on both sides of the ball. Whether he can make enough contact is really the only thing between him and a ceiling of 20-25 home runs with good on-base percentages.
- Jose Devers (2020 Age: 20): We might have all made up our minds about the Giancarlo Stanton trade, but Jose Devers, who had just turned 18 when he was shipped from New York to Miami as part of the return, means we'll have to wait a little longer. In 2019, he slashed .322/.391/.390 with eight stolen bases and a 26/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games between Class A Clinton, High A Jupiter, and complex level rehab work despite missing time with groin and forearm issues. Devers is extremely advanced for his age, showing exceptional contact ability even against pitchers much older than himself, and it's a pretty safe bet that he'll be able to hit his way up to the majors. His swing is very contact-oriented and at a listed 155 pounds, he doesn't hit for a ton of impact, so the Marlins will want Devers to continue to add weight and grow into his 6' frame so he can eventually be a threat for lots of doubles and triples with his speed. He's a very good defender at shortstop and could be a Gold Glover if he's forced over to second base, taking pressure off his bat, and he'll play all of 2020 at just 20 years old.
- Nasim Nunez (2020 Age: 19): The Marlins drafted Nunez out of an Atlanta-area high school in the second round in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal for $2.2 million. Personally, I think that's a lot to spend on a high schooler whose bat is almost completely unproven, but the Marlins will hope he takes a similar path to Jose Devers. In his pro debut, Nunez slashed .200/.327/.238 with 28 stolen bases and a 48/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Batavia, showing no power whatsoever but also better plate discipline than expected. Nunez was drafted for his glove, and he might be the best defensive shortstop in the system, so there is very little pressure on the bat for the 5'9" switch hitter. That said, he still needs to hit a little, and while the high walk rate is a nice start, he's going to have to learn to drive the ball more and start to hit for some real impact, even if it's just doubles and triples power. He's a great runner who stole 28 bases in 30 tries in complex ball, so getting on base will be key if he wants to maximize his value.
- Jose Salas (2020 Age: 17): It will probably be a few years before we even know what kind of prospect Salas is, but the Marlins liked his upside enough that they signed him out of Venezuela for $2.8 million in 2019. Born in 2003, he won't even turn 17 until April, and it's the athleticism that the Marlins are buying more than anything else. He's fast, produces some good power from both sides of the plate, has a good approach, and is athletic if somewhat raw at shortstop. There's a lot to teach, but since they got him this young, the Marlins also hope there's a lot of room to grow.
- Keep an eye on: Gosuke Katoh, Bryson Brigman, Riley Mahan, Osiris Johnson
Outfield
- Jesus Sanchez (2020 Age: 22): Lewis Brinson is looking like a bust now 200+ games into his big league career, but fortunately, the Marlins do have a nice crop of young outfielders coming up the pipeline behind him. Jesus Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson trade at the 2019 deadline, might be the next to break into the majors after slashing .260/.325/.398 with 13 home runs and a 100/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between AA and AAA this year. Big and strong at 6'3", he's more concerned with just spraying line drives around and making consistent hard contact, but it might do him good to start lifting the ball just a little bit more to tap his above average raw power. He's a very competent hitter that has no problem finding the barrel, even against advanced pitching, and if he tries to tap that power a little more, he could hit 15-20 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. He also profiles well in right field with sound defense and a good arm.
- Monte Harrison (2020 Age: 24-25): I see a lot of shades of Lewis Brinson here. Harrison, who is just over a year younger, is also a 6'3" right handed hitter with tools all over the place who hasn't quite put it together yet. Drafted in the second round out of a Kansas City-area high school way back in 2014, Harrison hit .270/.351/.441 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 74/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games in 2019, mostly at AAA New Orleans with a brief rehab stint at High A Jupiter. He generates a lot of power from an explosive right handed swing, though with that power comes a lot of swing and miss, and in fact, his 215 strikeouts in 2018 led the minor leagues that year. He's managed to cut his strikeout rate just a bit in 2019, but in order to get over the hump in the majors, there will be more work to do. Fortunately, Harrison has a lot of other traits to like, including his plus speed and exceptional arm strength from the outfield. He's very close to major league ready, and despite turning 25 next season, he maintains a high ceiling if he can figure out how to put the last few pieces together.
- JJ Bleday (2020 Age: 22): Bleday had a huge breakout junior season at Vanderbilt, where he led Division I baseball with 27 home runs despite facing the gauntlet of SEC pitching, and he rode that to being drafted fourth overall by the Marlins in 2019. Aggressively pushed to High A Jupiter to start his career, he started slow but heated up as he got his footing, finishing with a .257/.311/.379 slash line, three home runs, and a 29/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games. Bleday is pretty much as close as you'll find to a complete hitter straight out of college, as he combines tremendous feel for the barrel with great raw power to hit lots and lots of home runs against advanced pitching. Defensively, he's more or less average in right field, but his strong arm helps him provide at least some value out there. He should move quickly and, with a little luck, he could be in the big leagues at some point in 2020. His ceiling is 35-40 home runs annually with good on-base percentages – i.e., a true middle of the order hitter.
- Victor Victor Mesa (2020 Age: 23-24): Mesa was one of the most hyped international prospects this year after defecting from Cuba, and he and his younger brother Victor signed with the Marlins shortly thereafter, the elder brother getting a whopping $5.25 million. Unfortunately, his pro career hasn't gone as planned so far, as he hit just .235/.274/.263 with 18 stolen bases and a 64/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville. He didn't have much of a problem making contact against quality pitching, but the problem was that he rarely found the barrel and was more likely to roll over a ground ball or pop up than he was to really drive one. He'll need to take a step back and really work on his pitch recognition and hand eye coordination, because even though he put up slap hitter numbers, he doesn't have a slap hitter swing. At this point, he probably looks like more of a fourth outfielder, but he's also just 116 games into his pro career and he has a chance to show that 2019 was just growing pains, not his true talent level. He is exceptional in the outfield with speed, instincts, and a great arm, and that (plus the signing bonus) buys the bat a lot of time.
- Kameron Misner (2020 Age: 22): Misner had an enigmatic career at Missouri, hitting really, really well most of the time until slumping hard in SEC play in his junior year. He had previously positioned himself to potentially go somewhere in the top half of the first round, but the SEC skid dropped him to the competitive balance round, where the Marlins picked him up with the 35th pick in 2019. In his pro debut, he hit .270/.388/.362 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 42/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and Class A Clinton, which was at least a nice sign in a small sample even if he didn't hit for much power. Misner is a tooled up prospect who really looks like a ballplayer at 6'4" with good power, speed, and defense. He was able to get to that power consistently against weaker non-conference opponents in both 2018 and 2019, but a broken foot kept him out of SEC play in 2018 and he had that slump in 2019, so he came into the draft completely unproven against higher level pitching. He did a good job of keeping that strike zone at least reasonably down in pro ball and he drew a lot of walks, and if he can pull it together by finding his power stroke in 2020, this could look like a steal for Miami with Misner's upside of 25-30 home runs annually with plenty of stolen bases and good defense.
- Connor Scott (2020 Age: 20): Miami drafted Scott in the middle of the first round out of a Tampa high school in 2018, though he hasn't quite figured it out in pro ball as the Marlins have pushed him aggressively. In 2019, he slashed .248/.310/.359 with five home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 117/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter as his baseball skills haven't quite caught up to his physical tools. Long and lanky at 6'4", he's more of a line drive hitter that relies on his good feel for the barrel to hit for impact at the plate, at least for now. There may be some power to tap into as he adds strength and leverage in his swing, but it hasn't shown up yet and I don't think the Marlins aggressively pushing him to High A as a teenager is going to help. Meanwhile, he's a great athlete with a ton of speed and a strong arm that could make him a plus defensive center fielder in time, and it's already helping him steal bases. The glove and high draft position will by the bat time, and he remains a breakout candidate even after the so-so 2019.
- Peyton Burdick (2020 Age: 23): Burdick absolutely mashed as a Wright State redshirt junior in 2019, slashing an unbelievable .407/.538/.729 against the Raiders' relatively weak Horizon League schedule, and the Marlins picked him up in the third round with hopes that he could make the leap up to pro ball and continue hitting for impact. As it turns out, he could, and his exceptional pro debut saw him slash .308/.407/.542 with eleven home runs and a 72/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games, mostly at Class A Clinton. Burdick turns 23 right at the start of spring training, so he's not exactly the youngest prospect around, but he's extremely well everywhere he's gone and it wouldn't be smart to bet against his bat. He generates above average raw power with great feel for the barrel from the right side, and while he'll probably have a good amount of swing and miss at first while he transitions up from Horizon League pitching, he should cut it down reasonably going forward. To me, he looks like a 20-25 homer bat with decent on-base percentages, which would be enough to start in left field if he can get there.
- Victor Mesa Jr. (2020 Age: 18): Victor Mesa Jr. joined his older brother Victor Victor Mesa in defecting from Cuba last year, and while Victor Victor got $5.25 million, the younger Victor Jr. landed a nice $1 million bonus from the same Marlins. And while Victor Victor disappointed in his pro debut, Victor Jr. actually exceeded expectations, slashing .284/.366/.398 with a home run, seven stolen bases, and a 29/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. He's not too dissimilar of a hitter from Jose Devers in that he has great feel for the barrel and the strike zone at a very young age, and while he doesn't hit for much power at present, he has enough athleticism and strength to eventually hit for average power despite standing just 5'11". He will play all of 2020 at just 18 years old, and with the way the Marlins like to push their young prospects, he could be in the majors at a very young age if he keeps hitting the way he's hitting and adds some power. However, unlike his brother, his defense plays closer to average, so his bat will have to carry him up.
- Keep an eye on: Brian Miller, Stone Garrett, Tristan Pompey, Jerar Encarnacion, J.D. Orr
Starting Pitching
- Sixto Sanchez (2020 Age: 21-22): Sixto was part of the return for J.T. Realmuto last offseason, and few minor league pitchers have a higher ceiling than he does. In his first season in the Marlins system, he posted a 2.76 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 103/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville, starting a bit slow but finishing strong with a 0.90 ERA and a 35/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 40.1 innings over his final seven starts. Sixto is truly an elite talent, combining plus stuff with plus command in a way that very few other pitchers can. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, touching 100, and he can put some sink on it when he wants to to get lots of ground ball outs. His curve is a hammer and his changeup misses bats as well, and since he can put them where he wants them, they all play up. Unfortunately, the one downside in Sanchez's profile is health – at six feet tall, he's a bit undersized, and he missed time with elbow problems in 2018. He set a career high with 114 innings in 2019, which is both good news and bad news in that he proved he was healthy after those elbow problems but also bad news in that he'd never even topped 95 innings before. If Sixto can get past those durability concerns, he has true ace potential, and I think he'll post great numbers no matter what, just perhaps in smaller samples if he ends up breaking down.
- Sterling Sharp (2020 Age: 24-25): The Nationals kind of surprisingly left Sharp unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft, and the Marlins scooped him up with the third pick a few weeks ago. That means after posting a 3.53 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58.2 innings between AA and some lower level rehab work, Sharp will have to spend the entire season on the Marlins' active major league roster or else they'll have to send him back. Sharp should have very little trouble sticking in the majors, as he's a very advanced arm who stands out for his athleticism, control, and ability to sink his low 90's fastball for consistent ground ball outs. He also adds a decent slider and a good changeup, an overall average arsenal that the Marlins will hope plays up due to his feel for pitching. Overall, it's a #4 starter projection, though he'll likely pitch in the bullpen in 2020.
- Nick Neidert (2020 Age: 23): Neidert, a Mariners second rounder out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, has worked his way up slowly but with good numbers along the way, though a knee injury slowed him down in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.67 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 46/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 innings between High A Jupiter, AAA New Orleans, and complex level rehab work, the first time he'd ever had an ERA above 3.45 or a WHIP above 1.17. Acquired from Seattle as part of the return for Dee Gordon in 2017, Neidert is perhaps the most advanced pitcher in the system after from Sixto Sanchez, as he makes solid stuff play up great command and overall feel for mixing his pitches. He throws a lot to mid 90's fastball, adds a decent curve that stands out more for his ability to locate it than its actual movement, and gets most of his outs with a great changeup. His command wasn't quite as sharp in 2019 after the knee injury, and that exposed his overall arsenal a bit, so getting back to that plus command will help him become a #4 or #5 starter in the very near future.
- Braxton Garrett (2020 Age: 22-23): The Marlins picked up Garrett with the seventh overall pick in the 2016 draft out of a Northern Alabama high school, but he went down with Tommy John surgery just four starts into his pro career and missed most of 2017 and all of 2018. Returning in 2019, almost three years after he was drafted, he didn't miss a beat and posted a 3.54 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 119/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings, mostly at High A Jupiter with one rough start at AA Jacksonville. Garrett is a very balanced pitcher with good stuff and good command, though aside from a great curveball that functions as his out pitch, nothing stands out as plus. He sits in the low 90's and adds an advanced changeup, and while his command was a bit spotty in 2019, he had a very good feel for the strike zone in high school and he should regain that feel as he gets farther away from all that time off. Garrett has the ceiling of a #2 or a #3 starter, though that is contingent of him getting back to hitting his spots and filling up the strike zone, and a very good chance of becoming at least a #4.
- Edward Cabrera (2020 Age: 22): Perhaps the biggest breakout star in the system, Cabrera was a little known prospect until a solid 2018 at Class A (4.22 ERA, 93/42 K/BB) at least put him on the map. Then in 2019, the Dominican prospect posted a 2.23 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 116/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville. He sits in the mid 90's with his running fastball, which is his best pitch, and he took a step forward in 2019 because he got more consistent with his command of the pitch. His slider is coming along as he continues to refine the pitch, and his changeup has come along as well. The next steps will be to just continue to refine and refine, and he'll need to prove his durability as well with a career high of just 100.1 innings in 2018. Still, with a little more refinement, his fastball should be enough to lead the way for a career as a #3 or #4 starter.
- Trevor Rogers (2020 Age: 22): It took Rogers a bit to find his footing in pro ball, as he didn't pitch in 2017 after being drafted in the middle of the first round out of a New Mexico high school, then struggled to a 5.82 ERA and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A in 2018. However, he figured it out in 2019, posting a 2.90 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 150/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 136.1 innings at High A Jupiter and AA Jacksonville, the biggest difference, like Cabrera, being taking a big step forward with his command. He's a 6'6" lefty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and that velocity comes pretty easily as he doesn't throw with much effort. The rest of his arsenal is beginning to take shape with a curveball, a slider/cutter, and a changeup, which are all better than when he was drafted but which still need more refinement. With his command now safely above average, the Marlins can have him focus on those secondary pitches and hopefully reach his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter.
- Humberto Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia was never a top prospect, and that's why he's moved very slowly through the system since signing for $50,000 out of Panama in 2013, but he's also performed very well at every stop and has yet to really be challenged. In 2019, he finally reached full season ball and posted a 2.09 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and an 89/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball from a projectable 6'3" frame, and he can get outs with his curve and his changeup because he commands them well. The overall package is pretty average, but he's passed every test the Marlins have given him, so it will be interesting to see how he potentially handles the upper minors in 2020, which will be his age-23 season. If it clicks, he could be a #4 starter.
- Evan Fitterer (2020 Age: 19-20): Despite turning 19 shortly after the 2019 draft, the Marlins took Fitterer in the fifth round out of his Southern California high school then signed him to an over slot $1.5 million deal. Fitterer then posted a 2.38 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, nothing that really changes his outlook. He's a balanced pitcher for his age, one who sits in the low 90's with his fastball, adds a pair of breaking balls that both look good at times, and a changeup that's pretty advanced for a high school pitcher. He usually commands all four pitches pretty well, and with a projectable 6'3" frame, he has all the building blocks in place for the Marlins to work with. Going forward, he'll just need to get more consistent with everything and continue to learn himself as a pitcher. High ceiling, low floor, and a lot of time to figure it out.
- Keep an eye on: Robert Dugger, Cody Poteet, Daniel Castano, Will Stewart, Delvis Alegre
Relief Pitching
- Jorge Guzman (2020 Age: 24): The Dominican flamethrower has already been traded twice, once from Houston to New York in the Brian McCann deal of 2016 and then, more notably, as the prospect with the highest upside in the Giancarlo Stanton trade a year later. In 2019, Guzman posted a 3.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 127/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 138.2 innings at AA Jacksonville, which was just enough to remain in the rotation for now but not enough to add any more confidence that he won't eventually end up in the bullpen. With multiple starting pitching prospects taking a big step forward at High A in 2019 and the acquisition of Sterling Sharp, Guzman will probably end up the odd man out when looking for a rotation spot, but he could be a real force in the bullpen. He sits consistently in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, and his short arm action makes it really difficult to pick the ball up out of his hand. His slider stands out more for its mid to upper 80's velocity than for its movement, and his changeup has some nice fade, but his inability to throw strikes has kept him from putting it all together as a starter. Set to play in his age-24 season, the command probably won't ever get close to average, so at this point he's probably best off running his fastball up to 100 in the bullpen while missing bats with that hard slider. He could be up in 2020 if the Marlins go that route.
- Jordan Holloway (2020 Age: 23-24): A 20th round draft pick out of a Denver-area high school in 2014, Holloway probably finds himself in about the same spot as Guzman after posting a 4.45 ERA, a 1.51 WHIP, and a 93/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings at High A Jupiter. While he's still a starter, many of his teammates took steps forward that he couldn't match, and his two plus pitches likely fit better in a relief role at this point. Like Guzman, he sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball, though his breaking ball of choice is a curveball with really nice two-plane movement. Though he has a relatively easy delivery with a quick arm like Guzman's, he also struggles to throw strikes, and that has made his stuff play down. As a fastball/curveball reliever, he could work his way up and become a 7th or 8th inning guy.
- Sean Guenther (2020 Age: 24): The Marlins picked up Guenther as a strike throwing seventh rounder out of Notre Dame in 2017, but his average stuff wasn't quite enough to cut it as a starter in pro ball, so the organization bumped him to the bullpen in 2019 and the early returns are great. Often used for multiple innings at a time, the 5'11" lefty posted a 2.02 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 72/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.1 innings at Class A Clinton and High A Jupiter, using a high overhand delivery to get some added deception on his pitches. His fastball has bumped up into the low 90's, and while he used two breaking balls as a starter, I was unable to find if he's focused on one as a reliever but I'd have to guess he has. His plus command makes everything play up, and he could work his way up as a middle reliever.
- Keep an eye on: Tommy Eveld, Colton Hock, Jeff Lindgren
Showing posts with label Jose Devers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jose Devers. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Friday, November 9, 2018
Reviewing the Miami Marlins Farm System
The Marlins' system is better than it was just a year ago, but it still has a long, long way to go. Even with the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Kyle Barraclough, it's still fairly empty with no true impact prospects or headliners. Signing Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. were big steps in the right direction, but there is still just not much going on at all here. Even the team's top prospect heading into the season, Lewis Brinson, had a disastrous 2018 and slashed just .199/.240/.338 with eleven home runs in a season where he was supposed to challenge for the Rookie of the Year Award. The Marlins may (and should) trade J.T. Realmuto over the offseason and that will bring back a huge return, but for now, the system is just about empty. For now, the system is slightly more pitching heavy with more high-upside prospects overall than safe bets. One interesting note is that the Marlins aggressively pushed their three highest high school draft picks in 2018, Connor Scott, Osiris Johnson, and Will Banfield, all the way up to Class A Greensboro with mixed results.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers*, Short Season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*Class A Affiliate will move from Greensboro, NC to Clinton, IA in 2019
Toolsy Outfielders: Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison, Connor Scott, Tristan Pompey, Thomas Jones, Brian Miller, and Austin Dean
Though the system is not deep, perhaps the Marlins' best thing the system has going for it is that there are quite a few outfielders with star potential, even if those high ceilings are coupled with high bust potential. 22 year old Cuban import Victor Victor Mesa leads the pack, having signed for a huge $5.25 million bonus in October. He has an excellent glove and will be very valuable in center field, so it will be on his bat to catch up. Currently, he is a solid contact hitter who can get on base, and while he probably won't develop much power with his 5'9" frame, he has a ceiling as a leadoff hitter if he hits enough. His floor is among the highest in the system, and since he hasn't actually had an at bat in the minor leagues yet, that's saying something about the Marlins' farm sytem. 23 year old Monte Harrison came over in the Christian Yelich trade, and his ceiling and floor are exceptionally far apart for a hitter so far into his career. After cracking 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases in A ball last year, Harrison hit 19 more and stole 28 more in 2018 while slashing .240/.316/.399 for AA Jacksonville. Power/speed combinations like Harrison's are hard to come by and extremely valuable, but Harrison comes with one big problem; he strikes out way too much, including 36.9% of the time in 2018. If he's getting fooled this badly by AA pitching, he'll only struggle more with MLB pitching, and serious approach adjustments are necessary for him to succeed at the highest level. If he makes those adjustments, then he could be a perennial 20-20 player in the majors. 19 year old Connor Scott is farther away, having just been drafted in the first round (13th overall) out of a Tampa high school in 2018. Scott slashed .218/.309/.296 with a home run and nine stolen bases in 50 games between the complex ball and an aggressive assignment to Class A Greensboro, but those numbers don't show off his skills. Despite an unorthodox swing, the long and lanky Scott shows speed and feel for the barrel, with his wiry 6'4" frame, power could come too, and when that's combined with his good outfield defense and good arm, he has the potential to be a five tool player. Risk is always high with high school draftees, but Scott's ceiling might be the highest in the system, above even Harrison. 21 year old Tristan Pompey, the younger brother of Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Kentucky this year. Despite concerns about his plate discipline and swing mechanics, Pompey slashed a very impressive .299/.408/.397 with three home runs and ten stolen bases over 52 games across three levels in his pro debut, reaching as high as High A Jupiter. Especially surprising was his plate discipline, as his 47/32 strikeout to walk ratio was very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see how that plate discipline holds up over a full season, but the early returns are good for Pompey and he could be a productive major league hitter sooner than expected. 20 year old Thomas Jones was very raw when he was drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of a South Carolina high school in 2016, and so far, the Marlins have not been able to bring his potential out of him. Playing all of 2018 at Greensboro, he slashed .222/.277/.343 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing some of that blazing speed that got him drafted but struggling to do much of anything with the bat. His plate discipline currently plagues him (140/25 K/BB) and there isn't much sock in the bat, so even at 20 years old, he's running out of time to prove he can handle pro pitching. The Marlins hope 2019, his age-21 season, will be the year where he finally starts to tap into what scouts saw back in 2016. Lastly, 23 year old Brian Miller and 25 year old Austin Dean don't quite fit into the "toolsy" category, but they'll get a writeup here anyways. Both are high-floor hitters without much projection left, with Miller showing no power but good plate discipline and speed and Dean showing a productive bat. Miller slashed .295/.338/.355 with 40 stolen bases between Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this year, showing fourth outfielder potential, while Dean slashed and eye-popping .345/.410/.511 with 12 home runs and a nice 56/39 strikeout to walk ratio between Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, showing platoon/pinch hitter potential.
The Infielders: 2B Isan Diaz, SS Jose Devers, SS Osiris Johnson, 3B Joe Dunand, 3B James Nelson, and C Will Banfield
While there is some depth when it comes to high ceiling outfield prospects, this system really lacks in potential impact infielders, and the Marlins are unlikely to get any stars out of this group. 22 year old Isan Diaz leads the pack after having been acquired from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade last year, and like Monte Harrison, a fellow piece in the Yelich trade, there is a large gap between what Diaz can do and what he is doing. He split 2018 between AA Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, slashing a respectable .245/.365/.418 at the former but only .204/.281/.358 at the latter. He generates tons of power from a big, whippy swing, but he has swing and miss issues that keep his production down. However, as a patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks, and that gives him an enviable power/patient combination. If he can cut down those strikeouts and make better contact on pitches in the zone, he could be the Marlins' next Dan Uggla, but if he can't make those adjustments, he might better resemble late-career Uggla. 18 year old Jose Devers, who came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, was one of the youngest players in the Class A South Atlantic League this year, and his player profile is basically opposite to Diaz's. While Diaz's swing gives him all or nothing, Devers is a contact hitter with a very advanced approach for his age, enabling him to slash .272/.313/.330 against much older competition this year. He's also a very good defender at shortstop, so the only hole in his game for now is power. The skinny six footer has none of it for now, and he likely will never develop much, so he'll have to continue to line enough balls to the gaps to stay relevant. Time is on his side as he will play all of 2019 at 19 years old, and the big thing for him will just be adding strength. While Devers may be set to turn 19, 18 year old Osiris Johnson just had his birthday and played all of 2018 at just 17 years old. Johnson was drafted in the second round (53rd overall) out of an Oakland area high school this year, and while he hit well in complex ball (.301/.333/.447), he struggled to catch up to advanced Class A pitching upon his extremely aggressive promotion to Greensboro (.188/.205/.294). Johnson is very toolsy and generates power from a big swing, but that big swing also misses a lot, and with little patience, Class A pitchers were able to easily find holes in his approach this year. Set to play the whole 2019 season at 18 years old, he could spend years working on that approach and still be a young prospect, so he just has to do it. There's bust potential here, but Johnson has some of the higher upside in this section. 23 year old Joe Dunand, out of NC State, hit moderately well at High A Jupiter this year (.263/.326/.391) but saw his bat stall at Jacksonville (.212/.276/.369). With 14 total home runs on the year, he shows good power and some feel for the strike zone, but overall I don't think it adds up to a starting profile. His defense is very good at third base, and I can see him being power hitting utility infielder in the future. 21 year old James Nelson was riding high off a big 2017 at Greensboro (7 HR, .309/.354/.456) when 2018 went about as poorly as possible at Jupiter (2 HR, .211/.262/.280). He missed time to injury and overall just couldn't get anything going with the bat, so he'll hope to turn it back around in 2019 with a clean bill of health and a broad set of tools. Lastly, 18 year old catcher Will Banfield was a competitive balance pick (69th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school this year, and he's an interesting case. While he is great behind the plate with an excellent arm, his bat has held him back and some scouts worry if he'll ever be able to catch up to high level pitching. There is power in that bat, but the hit tool just isn't there yet. Learning to recognize breaking balls and catch up to velocity could make Banfield a starting catcher, but failure to do so will keep him from seeing the big leagues.
Electric Arms: Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Colton Hock, Tommy Eveld, and Tyler Kolek
Fortunately, the system isn't completely devoid of pitching talent like it used to be, and the Marlins do have a couple of hard throwers who could develop into more, though none have taken the step from "maybe can-be" to "potential ace" just yet. 23 year old Sandy Alcantara, who came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is the most advanced, but he also has been extremely enigmatic. He can hit 100 with his fastball and his slider and changeup have gotten better over the years, but he just doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect and that hurts his long term projection. In 2018, the skinny 6'4" righty went 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 96/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 innings, mostly at AAA New Orleans, but he struck out just 18% of his opponents along the way. He was moderately successful with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in a brief major league cup of coffee, but his 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings was far from ideal. At this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen. 22 year old Jorge Guzman came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and though he can hit 103 (!) with his fastball, his 2018 season was somewhat of a disappointment as he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 101/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at High A Jupiter. His slider is coming along as well, but right now the two pitches aren't enough to overcome his mediocre command. Like Alcantara, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he could have Aroldis Chapman-esque velocity and ditch his changeup. Still, it's always exciting to have someone with a fastball that sits right around 100 as a starter. 20 year old Edward Cabrera, like the two above him, has not put it together yet but is making progress. The skinny, 6'4" righty posted a 4.22 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 93/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings at Class A Greensboro this year, which again is disappointing when his fastball can hit 100 and 101. His slider works well too, but his command wobbles and like Alcantara and Guzman, there is a lot he needs to work on and he needs to start striking batters out. 20 year old Trevor Rogers' pro debut didn't go as well as hoped in 2018, as he posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings for Greensboro this year. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, which is slower than the guys above, and his secondary stuff is still coming along, though he stands at a tall 6'6". The Marlins knew he would be a project when they drafted him in the first round (13th overall) out of a New Mexico high school in 2017, and a year and a half later, he's still a project. One positive from his 2018 season was the strikeout to walk ratio, as a 26% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate aren't half bad and should provide hope for a better 2019. 22 year old Colton Hock has been a bit disappointing so far in his career, with his 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 77/21 strikeout to walk ratio being fairly uninspiring in 91 innings against slightly younger competition at Greensboro in 2018. The 6'4" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curve, both of which he controls well, but it doesn't quite come together in an exciting starter package and he probably needs to move to the bullpen, where he pitched with Stanford. 24 year old Tommy Eveld is purely a bullpen prospect, having posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 61/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings between High A and AA. He should be in the majors in 2019 and could make an impact quickly. Lastly, we have our old friend, 22 year old Tyler Kolek, who isn't really a prospect anymore except for the fact that he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft with Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, and others still on the board. At the time, he threw over 100 miles per hour regularly and looked durable with a big, 6'5" frame, but injuries and poor command have ruined his pro career so far. Now, the fastball is down to the mid 90's, and without good secondaries or command, he's basically just organizational filler at this point. Too bad, really.
Polished Arms: Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Jeff Brigham, and Brady Puckett
Fortunately, the Marlins have enough polished arms in this section that they might be able to form a decent back of the rotation, and you could make the argument that this group of pitchers is better than the live arms discussed above. 21 year old Nick Neidert came over in the Dee Gordon trade and is the closest thing the Marlins have to a legitimate starting pitching prospect. In 26 starts at AA Jacksonville this year, the 6'1" righty went 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 154/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.2 innings, showing a good mix of stuff and command. His fastball and changeup generate weak contact, and while his lack of a good breaking ball limits his ceiling, he could be a #3 or #4 starter in Miami soon. 22 year old Jordan Yamamoto, who came over in the Christian Yelich trade, has flown under the radar a bit and I don't think he gets enough credit. In 13 starts between High A Jupiter, AA Jacksonville, and complex level rehab work, he went 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.2 innings, showing good command of a deceptive fastball and a very good curveball. While he needs to prove he can stay healthy, hitters have not been able to figure him out, and he posted a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings with Jacksonville against his most advanced opponents. He looks like a back-end starter for now but don't underestimate him. 21 year old Braxton Garrett missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery after being drafted seventh overall in 2016, but once he's healthy, he has the highest ceiling in this group. Pre-surgery, he threw a low 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a good changeup, all of which he could control, which would seemingly give him a great combination of ceiling of floor if he were healthy. However, he comes with a lot of risk considering we just don't know what his stuff will look like so long after surgery, and because he turned 21 in August, he's not young as far as "guys who have made four starts since high school" go. 23 year old Zac Gallen, 23 year old Robert Dugger, and 26 year old Jeff Brigham are three guys who could contribute to the back of the rotation soon. Gallen is probably the best of the three, having posted a 3.65 ERA and a 136/48 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA New Orleans this year, though he does have problems with his average stuff getting hit too hard too often. Dugger, meanwhile, had a 3.40 ERA and a 141/43 strikeout to walk ratio between Jupiter and Jacksonville, and while he's behind Gallen on the depth chart, he has a similar career outlook. Brigham is older but posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings between Jacksonville, New Orleans, and complex ball rehab work, and while he throws mid 90's, his secondary stuff does need some work, and at 26, he's probably not getting much better. He may have to transition to the bullpen. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Puckett is another under the radar arm, one who posted a 2.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 98/18 strikeout to walk ratio between Greensboro, Jupiter, and complex ball rehab work. He gets by much more on command than stuff, and while he's behind the above trio on the depth chart, he could sneak up to the majors as a back-end starter.
Affiliates: AAA New Orleans Baby Cakes, AA Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, High A Jupiter Hammerheads, Class A Greensboro Grasshoppers*, Short Season Batavia Muckdogs, complex level GCL and DSL Marlins
*Class A Affiliate will move from Greensboro, NC to Clinton, IA in 2019
Toolsy Outfielders: Victor Victor Mesa, Monte Harrison, Connor Scott, Tristan Pompey, Thomas Jones, Brian Miller, and Austin Dean
Though the system is not deep, perhaps the Marlins' best thing the system has going for it is that there are quite a few outfielders with star potential, even if those high ceilings are coupled with high bust potential. 22 year old Cuban import Victor Victor Mesa leads the pack, having signed for a huge $5.25 million bonus in October. He has an excellent glove and will be very valuable in center field, so it will be on his bat to catch up. Currently, he is a solid contact hitter who can get on base, and while he probably won't develop much power with his 5'9" frame, he has a ceiling as a leadoff hitter if he hits enough. His floor is among the highest in the system, and since he hasn't actually had an at bat in the minor leagues yet, that's saying something about the Marlins' farm sytem. 23 year old Monte Harrison came over in the Christian Yelich trade, and his ceiling and floor are exceptionally far apart for a hitter so far into his career. After cracking 21 home runs and stealing 27 bases in A ball last year, Harrison hit 19 more and stole 28 more in 2018 while slashing .240/.316/.399 for AA Jacksonville. Power/speed combinations like Harrison's are hard to come by and extremely valuable, but Harrison comes with one big problem; he strikes out way too much, including 36.9% of the time in 2018. If he's getting fooled this badly by AA pitching, he'll only struggle more with MLB pitching, and serious approach adjustments are necessary for him to succeed at the highest level. If he makes those adjustments, then he could be a perennial 20-20 player in the majors. 19 year old Connor Scott is farther away, having just been drafted in the first round (13th overall) out of a Tampa high school in 2018. Scott slashed .218/.309/.296 with a home run and nine stolen bases in 50 games between the complex ball and an aggressive assignment to Class A Greensboro, but those numbers don't show off his skills. Despite an unorthodox swing, the long and lanky Scott shows speed and feel for the barrel, with his wiry 6'4" frame, power could come too, and when that's combined with his good outfield defense and good arm, he has the potential to be a five tool player. Risk is always high with high school draftees, but Scott's ceiling might be the highest in the system, above even Harrison. 21 year old Tristan Pompey, the younger brother of Blue Jays outfielder Dalton Pompey, was a third round pick (89th overall) out of Kentucky this year. Despite concerns about his plate discipline and swing mechanics, Pompey slashed a very impressive .299/.408/.397 with three home runs and ten stolen bases over 52 games across three levels in his pro debut, reaching as high as High A Jupiter. Especially surprising was his plate discipline, as his 47/32 strikeout to walk ratio was very reasonable. We'll have to wait and see how that plate discipline holds up over a full season, but the early returns are good for Pompey and he could be a productive major league hitter sooner than expected. 20 year old Thomas Jones was very raw when he was drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of a South Carolina high school in 2016, and so far, the Marlins have not been able to bring his potential out of him. Playing all of 2018 at Greensboro, he slashed .222/.277/.343 with nine home runs and 20 stolen bases, showing some of that blazing speed that got him drafted but struggling to do much of anything with the bat. His plate discipline currently plagues him (140/25 K/BB) and there isn't much sock in the bat, so even at 20 years old, he's running out of time to prove he can handle pro pitching. The Marlins hope 2019, his age-21 season, will be the year where he finally starts to tap into what scouts saw back in 2016. Lastly, 23 year old Brian Miller and 25 year old Austin Dean don't quite fit into the "toolsy" category, but they'll get a writeup here anyways. Both are high-floor hitters without much projection left, with Miller showing no power but good plate discipline and speed and Dean showing a productive bat. Miller slashed .295/.338/.355 with 40 stolen bases between Jupiter and AA Jacksonville this year, showing fourth outfielder potential, while Dean slashed and eye-popping .345/.410/.511 with 12 home runs and a nice 56/39 strikeout to walk ratio between Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, showing platoon/pinch hitter potential.
The Infielders: 2B Isan Diaz, SS Jose Devers, SS Osiris Johnson, 3B Joe Dunand, 3B James Nelson, and C Will Banfield
While there is some depth when it comes to high ceiling outfield prospects, this system really lacks in potential impact infielders, and the Marlins are unlikely to get any stars out of this group. 22 year old Isan Diaz leads the pack after having been acquired from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade last year, and like Monte Harrison, a fellow piece in the Yelich trade, there is a large gap between what Diaz can do and what he is doing. He split 2018 between AA Jacksonville and AAA New Orleans, slashing a respectable .245/.365/.418 at the former but only .204/.281/.358 at the latter. He generates tons of power from a big, whippy swing, but he has swing and miss issues that keep his production down. However, as a patient hitter, he also draws plenty of walks, and that gives him an enviable power/patient combination. If he can cut down those strikeouts and make better contact on pitches in the zone, he could be the Marlins' next Dan Uggla, but if he can't make those adjustments, he might better resemble late-career Uggla. 18 year old Jose Devers, who came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, was one of the youngest players in the Class A South Atlantic League this year, and his player profile is basically opposite to Diaz's. While Diaz's swing gives him all or nothing, Devers is a contact hitter with a very advanced approach for his age, enabling him to slash .272/.313/.330 against much older competition this year. He's also a very good defender at shortstop, so the only hole in his game for now is power. The skinny six footer has none of it for now, and he likely will never develop much, so he'll have to continue to line enough balls to the gaps to stay relevant. Time is on his side as he will play all of 2019 at 19 years old, and the big thing for him will just be adding strength. While Devers may be set to turn 19, 18 year old Osiris Johnson just had his birthday and played all of 2018 at just 17 years old. Johnson was drafted in the second round (53rd overall) out of an Oakland area high school this year, and while he hit well in complex ball (.301/.333/.447), he struggled to catch up to advanced Class A pitching upon his extremely aggressive promotion to Greensboro (.188/.205/.294). Johnson is very toolsy and generates power from a big swing, but that big swing also misses a lot, and with little patience, Class A pitchers were able to easily find holes in his approach this year. Set to play the whole 2019 season at 18 years old, he could spend years working on that approach and still be a young prospect, so he just has to do it. There's bust potential here, but Johnson has some of the higher upside in this section. 23 year old Joe Dunand, out of NC State, hit moderately well at High A Jupiter this year (.263/.326/.391) but saw his bat stall at Jacksonville (.212/.276/.369). With 14 total home runs on the year, he shows good power and some feel for the strike zone, but overall I don't think it adds up to a starting profile. His defense is very good at third base, and I can see him being power hitting utility infielder in the future. 21 year old James Nelson was riding high off a big 2017 at Greensboro (7 HR, .309/.354/.456) when 2018 went about as poorly as possible at Jupiter (2 HR, .211/.262/.280). He missed time to injury and overall just couldn't get anything going with the bat, so he'll hope to turn it back around in 2019 with a clean bill of health and a broad set of tools. Lastly, 18 year old catcher Will Banfield was a competitive balance pick (69th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school this year, and he's an interesting case. While he is great behind the plate with an excellent arm, his bat has held him back and some scouts worry if he'll ever be able to catch up to high level pitching. There is power in that bat, but the hit tool just isn't there yet. Learning to recognize breaking balls and catch up to velocity could make Banfield a starting catcher, but failure to do so will keep him from seeing the big leagues.
Electric Arms: Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Guzman, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers, Colton Hock, Tommy Eveld, and Tyler Kolek
Fortunately, the system isn't completely devoid of pitching talent like it used to be, and the Marlins do have a couple of hard throwers who could develop into more, though none have taken the step from "maybe can-be" to "potential ace" just yet. 23 year old Sandy Alcantara, who came over from the Cardinals in the Marcell Ozuna trade, is the most advanced, but he also has been extremely enigmatic. He can hit 100 with his fastball and his slider and changeup have gotten better over the years, but he just doesn't miss as many bats as you'd expect and that hurts his long term projection. In 2018, the skinny 6'4" righty went 6-3 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 96/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 innings, mostly at AAA New Orleans, but he struck out just 18% of his opponents along the way. He was moderately successful with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP in a brief major league cup of coffee, but his 30/23 strikeout to walk ratio in 34 innings was far from ideal. At this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen. 22 year old Jorge Guzman came over in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and though he can hit 103 (!) with his fastball, his 2018 season was somewhat of a disappointment as he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 101/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 innings at High A Jupiter. His slider is coming along as well, but right now the two pitches aren't enough to overcome his mediocre command. Like Alcantara, he might be better off in the bullpen, where he could have Aroldis Chapman-esque velocity and ditch his changeup. Still, it's always exciting to have someone with a fastball that sits right around 100 as a starter. 20 year old Edward Cabrera, like the two above him, has not put it together yet but is making progress. The skinny, 6'4" righty posted a 4.22 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 93/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings at Class A Greensboro this year, which again is disappointing when his fastball can hit 100 and 101. His slider works well too, but his command wobbles and like Alcantara and Guzman, there is a lot he needs to work on and he needs to start striking batters out. 20 year old Trevor Rogers' pro debut didn't go as well as hoped in 2018, as he posted a 5.82 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and an 85/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 72.2 innings for Greensboro this year. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, which is slower than the guys above, and his secondary stuff is still coming along, though he stands at a tall 6'6". The Marlins knew he would be a project when they drafted him in the first round (13th overall) out of a New Mexico high school in 2017, and a year and a half later, he's still a project. One positive from his 2018 season was the strikeout to walk ratio, as a 26% strikeout rate and an 8.3% walk rate aren't half bad and should provide hope for a better 2019. 22 year old Colton Hock has been a bit disappointing so far in his career, with his 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 77/21 strikeout to walk ratio being fairly uninspiring in 91 innings against slightly younger competition at Greensboro in 2018. The 6'4" righty has a low to mid 90's fastball and a great curve, both of which he controls well, but it doesn't quite come together in an exciting starter package and he probably needs to move to the bullpen, where he pitched with Stanford. 24 year old Tommy Eveld is purely a bullpen prospect, having posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, and a 61/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 50.1 innings between High A and AA. He should be in the majors in 2019 and could make an impact quickly. Lastly, we have our old friend, 22 year old Tyler Kolek, who isn't really a prospect anymore except for the fact that he was the second overall pick in the 2014 draft with Aaron Nola, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Trea Turner, and others still on the board. At the time, he threw over 100 miles per hour regularly and looked durable with a big, 6'5" frame, but injuries and poor command have ruined his pro career so far. Now, the fastball is down to the mid 90's, and without good secondaries or command, he's basically just organizational filler at this point. Too bad, really.
Polished Arms: Nick Neidert, Jordan Yamamoto, Braxton Garrett, Zac Gallen, Robert Dugger, Jeff Brigham, and Brady Puckett
Fortunately, the Marlins have enough polished arms in this section that they might be able to form a decent back of the rotation, and you could make the argument that this group of pitchers is better than the live arms discussed above. 21 year old Nick Neidert came over in the Dee Gordon trade and is the closest thing the Marlins have to a legitimate starting pitching prospect. In 26 starts at AA Jacksonville this year, the 6'1" righty went 12-7 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 154/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.2 innings, showing a good mix of stuff and command. His fastball and changeup generate weak contact, and while his lack of a good breaking ball limits his ceiling, he could be a #3 or #4 starter in Miami soon. 22 year old Jordan Yamamoto, who came over in the Christian Yelich trade, has flown under the radar a bit and I don't think he gets enough credit. In 13 starts between High A Jupiter, AA Jacksonville, and complex level rehab work, he went 6-1 with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and an 85/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 68.2 innings, showing good command of a deceptive fastball and a very good curveball. While he needs to prove he can stay healthy, hitters have not been able to figure him out, and he posted a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 17 innings with Jacksonville against his most advanced opponents. He looks like a back-end starter for now but don't underestimate him. 21 year old Braxton Garrett missed most of 2017 and all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery after being drafted seventh overall in 2016, but once he's healthy, he has the highest ceiling in this group. Pre-surgery, he threw a low 90's fastball, a great curveball, and a good changeup, all of which he could control, which would seemingly give him a great combination of ceiling of floor if he were healthy. However, he comes with a lot of risk considering we just don't know what his stuff will look like so long after surgery, and because he turned 21 in August, he's not young as far as "guys who have made four starts since high school" go. 23 year old Zac Gallen, 23 year old Robert Dugger, and 26 year old Jeff Brigham are three guys who could contribute to the back of the rotation soon. Gallen is probably the best of the three, having posted a 3.65 ERA and a 136/48 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA New Orleans this year, though he does have problems with his average stuff getting hit too hard too often. Dugger, meanwhile, had a 3.40 ERA and a 141/43 strikeout to walk ratio between Jupiter and Jacksonville, and while he's behind Gallen on the depth chart, he has a similar career outlook. Brigham is older but posted a 2.36 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 94/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings between Jacksonville, New Orleans, and complex ball rehab work, and while he throws mid 90's, his secondary stuff does need some work, and at 26, he's probably not getting much better. He may have to transition to the bullpen. Lastly, 23 year old Brady Puckett is another under the radar arm, one who posted a 2.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 98/18 strikeout to walk ratio between Greensboro, Jupiter, and complex ball rehab work. He gets by much more on command than stuff, and while he's behind the above trio on the depth chart, he could sneak up to the majors as a back-end starter.
Saturday, December 9, 2017
Yankees Acquire Stanton From Marlins
Yankees Get: Giancarlo Stanton: 59 HR, .281/.376/.631, 2 SB, 156 wRC+, 6.9 fWAR
$30 million (if Stanton does not opt out after 2020 season)
Marlins Get: Starlin Castro: 16 HR, .300/.338/.454, 2 SB, 110 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR
Jorge Guzman: 5-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 88/18 K/BB, 66.2 IP at Class A Short Season
Jose Devers: 1 HR, .245/.336/.342, 16 SB, 100 wRC+ at DSL and GCL
In the blockbuster trade we've been waiting for, the Yankees acquired reigning NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton from the Marlins in exchange for Starlin Castro and two low-level prospects. Stanton comes with a massive ten year, $295 million contract that runs through 2027, though Stanton can opt out after the 2020 season, which would leave the Yankees on the hook for three years and $77 million. The Marlins have agreed to ship $30 million along with Stanton if he does not exercise his opt-out, bringing the Yankees' total cost to $265 million, but they'll get no money if he does opt out. This likely takes New York out of the running to sign Bryce Harper after the 2018 season. Stanton gives the Yankees both baseball's two premier power hitters, and he and Aaron Judge could be the most fearsome offensive combination in the game, having combined for 111 home runs last season. Stanton will likely serve as the DH as Judge plus some combination of Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Jacoby Ellsbury man the outfield, though Ellsbury's name has been mentioned in trade rumors. This is a very dangerous Yankees team, and if you combine their star power with their depth and farm system, we are likely seeing the beginning of a new dynasty. For Stanton himself, he is coming off an MVP season in which he crushed 59 home runs and slashed .281/.376/.631 over 159 games, posting a 156 wRC+ and racking up 6.9 fWAR. Expect his numbers to get a boost in cozy Yankee Stadium and with better hitters protecting him in the lineup, but also know that most of Stanton's home runs go so far that the fence distance doesn't really matter. For his career, the LA native has 267 home runs, a .268/.360/.554 slash line, a 144 wRC+, and 34.1 fWAR over 986 games.
The most important thing the Marlins get out of this trade is salary relief. Stanton's contract was simply too expensive for the new ownership to handle, and the Marlins are rebuilding anyways so having Stanton on the books doesn't really make sense. Starlin Castro is the lone major leaguer going back to Miami, and he will slot right in at second base, which was just vacated by the Dee Gordon trade a few days earlier. Castro is on the hook for two years and $22 million, which wouldn't even make a dent in Stanton's ten year, $295 million (or three year, $77 million) deal and is still considerably cheaper than Gordon's three years and $38 million. Castro is coming off a very good season, having slashed .300/.338/.454 with 16 home runs and a 110 wRC+ for the Yankees, good for 1.9 fWAR in 119 games. He could use a few more walks to get that on-base percentage up, but for a rebuilding team, he can be a major contributor on offense and serve as a trade chip down the line. Meanwhile, Jorge Guzman is a 21 year old right handed pitcher who was acquired from the Astros in last year's Brian McCann trade. He had a huge breakout year in 2017 in Short Season ball with Staten Island, going 5-3 with a 2.30 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an 88/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 66.2 innings over 13 starts. Guzman brings blazing heat, throwing his fastball in the upper 90's while touching 101, 102, and even 103 MPH, enough juice to strike out 33.5% of the New York-Penn League hitters he faced this year. He also possesses the rare trait of being able to command that fastball, evidenced by a 6.8% walk rate this year. However, he does come with a few downsides. Guzman has a lot of work to do on his offspeed pitches, as he can't get by on fastball alone as he moves up to full season ball and beyond. He also turns 22 in January, so while he isn't old for a prospect, we're yet to see him pitch in full season ball and he's not exactly the youngest guy around. If it all breaks right, he has mid-rotation potential, but if those offspeed pitches never develop, he'll likely be a set-up man. Jose Devers, cousin of Red Sox star Rafael Devers, is an 18 year old shortstop out of the Dominican Republic. He is very much a wild card given his age and could develop in any number of directions, but we do know that he has a very good glove and can likely stick at shortstop. After slashing .239/.255/.326 with an ugly 16/0 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 games in the Dominican Summer League, he improved to .246/.359/.348 with a home run and a much better 21/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games upon a promotion to the Gulf Coast League. As I said, he has a long way to go, but he'll be 18 for all of 2018 and has plenty of time to develop.
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