First 5 rounds: Keston Hiura (1-9), Tristen Lutz (CBA-34), Caden Lemons (2-46), K.J. Harrison (3-84), Brendan Murphy (4-114), Nick Egnatuk (5-144)
Also notable: Devin Hairston (6-174), Bowden Francis (7-204), Jayson Rose (8-234), Alec Bettinger (10-294), Kyle Jacobsen (33-984)
The Brewers didn't follow any particular pattern, grabbing contact bats, power bats, high ceiling arms, and some safe bets. There isn't much excitement here, and I'd be a little disappointed if I were a Brewers fan, considering they had three of the first 46 picks. One interesting thing is that they seemed to be allergic to lefties, taking just one left handed thrower in their first 18 picks, including hitters and pitchers.
1-9: 2B Keston Hiura (my rank: 22)
I'm not a big fan of this pick, though many see Hiura as the most advanced bat in the class and I wouldn't be quick to disagree with them. He used a polished approach and a quick swing to put up a ridiculous .442/.567/.693 slash line with eight home runs over 56 games for UC-Irvine, walking in 19.1% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 14.6%. He seems to have improved his swing path last year, taking what was once a somewhat sweepy swing and making it more linear this year. His big question mark comes around defense, as he did not play the field in 2017 due to an elbow injury, one which some evaluators think could require Tommy John. Even when he does play defense, he's fringy at second base and a move to left field could be in line due to his below average arm. He still has a chance to be a special player though, and he signed for $4 million, which is $570,000 below slot.
CBA-34: Tristen Lutz (my rank: 39)
Lutz is a high ceiling Texas high schooler who could mash 30 home runs per season in Milwaukee. Though he is a tad old for his high school class, he has big time bat speed that portends well to being able to survive mechanical adjustments and help his offense play up. As of now, though, there are question marks about contact, and that swing path will need to be improved upon by pro coaches for Lutz to reach the majors. Lutz signed for just over $2.3 million, coming in at $368,400 above slot.
2-46: RHP Caden Lemons (my rank: 83)
The distance between Lemons' ceiling and floor is extremely wide, making him one of the biggest wild cards of the draft. Right now, he's all projection, throwing in the low 90's with terrible mechanics that will need to be cleaned up significantly. The Alabama high schooler stands 6'6", and once his delivery is cleaned up, it's easy to see him sitting in the mid 90's consistently. His secondary stuff is average at best right now, so this is a projection play through and through. He could burn out in the minors and never be heard from again in a baseball context, or he could develop into an ace. Lemons signed for $1.45 million, which is $43,500 below slot.
3-84: C/1B K.J. Harrison (my rank: 63)
Harrison is an advanced college bat from Oregon State, the top team in the nation for most of the season until they lost in the baseball equivalent of the Final Four. He's put up solid but not exciting stats for the Beavers, and he shifted his approach slightly in 2017 to try to hit for more contact, leading to a career high in batting average (.313) but a lower on-base percentage (.382) and a career low in slugging percentage (.498) and home runs (9). He's more of a high floor hitter than a low ceiling guy, one who could be an average first baseman at the major league level or, if everything goes according to plan, a Jason Castro-type starting catcher. Harrison signed at-slot for $666,600.
4-114: LHP Brendan Murphy (my rank: 137)
The only one of the Brewers' first 18 picks to throw left handed, Murphy is a high school pitcher from the Chicago area, one who isn't extremely exciting now but has a solid foundation to build on. He throws his fastball right around 90 with a solid changeup and a mediocre curveball from equally mediocre mechanics, and he has plenty of room for growth. Coming from a cold weather state, he has less mileage on his arm and it is more forgivable if he is less advanced. Murphy signed for $500,000, which is $31,400 above slot.
6-174: 2B Devin Hairston (my rank: 133)
Hairston was a fan favorite at Louisville, starting for three years and slashing .301/.355/.402 with seven home runs over his career. He's just 5'7" and shows very little power potential, but he has a quick swing and puts the bat to the ball well, striking out in just 11.6% of his plate appearances. He projects as a utility man once he works through the minor league levels but is a fun guy to have in the system.
Others: 5th rounder Nick Egnatuk is a raw high school infielder from New Jersey, one who has flashed all-around potential but has hurt himself with his aggressive approach and has been inconsistent with his power. 7th rounder Bowden Francis is another Chipola guy, one who can throw a mid 90's sinker out of the bullpen but who was used primarily as a starter for the Indians this year, where his fastball sits in the low 90's and didn't strike out too many batters. He'll be a sinker-slider reliever going forward. 8th rounder Jayson Rose took a small step back from his big sophomore year, but he was still effective for Utah (8-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 82/43 K/BB), and he could be a back-end starter with his full arsenal, led by a plus changeup. However, everything else is fringe-average, and he could end up in the bullpen, but the Brewers will let him start for now. 10th rounder Alec Bettinger has been an important member of UVA's pitching staff for the past four years, showing much better in relief this year (8-0, 2.43 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 71/31 K/BB). The Northern Virginia native (Woodbridge) should move quickly through the minors and could be a middle reliever for the Crew soon. 33rd rounder Kyle Jacobsen probably won't sign, and will instead attend South Carolina. He has the tools to succeed, showing a line drive bat that can square the ball up consistently, but his swing is long and flat and isn't conducive to as much power as you would expect from his 6'1", 185 pound frame. He's a good but not great defender, and he could end up as a tweener who lacks the speed for center field but also lacks the bat for an outfield corner. Three years with the Gamecocks could change that.
Showing posts with label K.J. Harrison. Show all posts
Showing posts with label K.J. Harrison. Show all posts
Friday, July 7, 2017
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: College Hitters With No Standout Tool
1st Tier: Adam Haseley, Keston Hiura
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
2nd Tier: Logan Warmoth, Evan White, Brian Miller, K.J. Harrison, Stuart Fairchild
3rd Tier: Connor Wong, Kevin Smith, Joey Morgan
Others: Zach Rutherford, Taylor Walls, Ernie Clement, Devin Hairston, Will Toffey
By the title, this sounds like a strangely specific list, but this type of player is very prevalent in the college game. These guys won't hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases, but they know how to play the game. They're your future Dustin Pedroias, Alex Bregmans, and Logan Forsythes. Obviously, some players fit better on this list than others, as Hiura's hit tool, White's defense, and Fairchild's speed could technically disqualify them from this list, but overall they fit in well with the other guys.
Tier I (Haseley, Hiura)
I wrote about Adam Haseley under the college power hitters demographic, but I am also much higher on his power than most. For the typical observer, Haseley fits here with his broad skill set. Keston Hiura, who hit .442 for UC-Irvine this year, may have the best hit tool in this draft, but hit isn't the first tool you think of when you think of "toolsy" players. Hiura has big time defensive questions stemming from an elbow injury as well as middling play when he's actually on the field, but he might be the most advanced hitter in this class. Out of every player out there, I'd put Hiura up there with Brendan McKay or Haseley as the one I would most want if I needed a pinch hitter in the MLB today. His swing is still a bit sweepy, but it is better than it was last year and he should continue to make improvements with pro coaching.
Tier II (Warmoth, White, Miller, Harrison, Fairchild)
UNC's Logan Warmoth hit himself into the first round this year, slashing .336/.404/.554 in the always tough ACC, and he probably epitomizes this class more than anybody else. He's a slightly above average hitter and an average defender at a tough position, shortstop. He's a decent runner and slashed a respectably average .270/.330/.450 over 27 games in the Cape Cod League, the toughest collegiate summer league there is. Overall, it's a pretty boring profile, but boring isn't always bad. Kentucky's Evan White would rank in the first tier for some, if not most people, but I'm the low guy on him. I love his mature approach at the plate, but I think he's unlikely to develop more than average power, and he doesn't have a Hiura-like hit tool or a Jeren Kendall-like run tool to offset it. His 10% walk rate is also fairly low, though I think he can improve it. On top of that, he's a first baseman – the best defensive first baseman in the class, but still a first baseman. Many see him coming off the board in the top 20 picks after slashing .368/.450/.627 with nine home runs against tough SEC pitching, but as the low guy on him, I ranked White just outside the top 30. Warmoth's teammate, Brian Miller, shares a lot in common with White. He slashed .343/.422/.502 with seven home runs in an almost-as-tough ACC, and he also plays first base. He's not as good defensively as White, but he is also more likely to be able to transition to center field in pro ball, as he is a bit faster. His profile gets even more interesting because like White, he has a long, flat swing that doesn't produce much power. He does walk a little bit more (12.1%). Most people would be confused to even see the two compared, and I still rank White well ahead of Miller. Oregon State's K.J. Harrison could have been ranked under the power hitters' demographic, but the power is just light enough – for now – that he fits in this category. Despite being one of the youngest college juniors available (he turns 21 in August), Harrison is one of the more advanced college hitters on the market, slashing .330/.396/.515 with eight home runs in the Pac-12 this year. He has the ability to hit for more power (his 21 extra base hits are down from 28 last year), but he focused more on contact and spraying the ball to all fields this season, and the power should come back as he advances. Harrison is limited to first base (though he has an outside shot at catching), and his 37/24 strikeout to walk ratio isn't exactly what you'd hope for, but he is a solid option in the second round that could be somewhat similar to the Mets' 2016 second round pick, Peter Alonso. Lastly, Stuart Fairchild couldn't be any more different from Harrison, profiling more as a poor man's Jeren Kendall. Fairchild is fast enough that I almost didn't include him in this demographic, stealing 46 bases over his three years at Wake Forest (including 20 this year), and he profiles as an above average defender in the outfield. Like Kendall, he has a lot of swing and miss to his game (17% strikeout rate), but his swing is not as clean as Kendall's and does not produce as much power. He slashed an amazing .359/.438/.645 with 17 home runs in the ACC this year (albeit in Wake Forest's hitter-friendly home park), but his .232/.323/.330 line over 34 Cape Cod League games leaves me as the low guy on Fairchild, who some think could crack the top 40 picks.
Tier III (Wong, Smith, Morgan)
Connor Wong is just about the weirdest catcher you've seen. At just 5'10", 170 lbs, he looks more like a second baseman than a backstop, and he can actually play all over the infield if needed. He also stole 26 bases for the University of Houston this year. I'd consider him a Keston Hiura-lite type of player, with the ability to catch but not nearly the offensive capabilities. Maryland's Kevin Smith, who joins Brian Miller in the "boring name" group, also has a weird profile. He has power, and actually ranked among the "others" in the college power hitters demographic, but his 13 home runs were just about the only thing he had going for him at the plate this year, slashing an underwhelming .268/.323/.552. Unlike most power hitters, he is an agile defender, and could actually stick at shortstop. Washington's Joey Morgan is another catcher, one with all-around decent tools who profiles well as a backup at the major league level. He was on very few prospect lists at the beginning of the season, but he slashed .324/.427/.500 in the Pac-12 and unlike some of the other catching prospects in this draft, is a near-certainty to stick behind the plate.
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