1-20: OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA
2-53: SS Freddy Zamora, Miami
3-92: C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan
4-121: OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati
5-151: SS Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette
The Brewers knew what they were looking for in this class, spending all five picks on well-known college bats. I think they did a great job picking up talent, especially starting off with one of my favorite players in the entire class, Garrett Mitchell. Mitchell has serious top of the draft upside, and I think his floor is plenty high enough to have justified the pick far earlier in the first round, so the Brewers got a steal. Behind him, Freddy Zamora and Zavier Warren come with higher floors, while Joey Wiemer is somewhat of a Mitchell-lite and has a ton of upside. Hayden Cantrelle, meanwhile, has a good combination of upside and floor as well if he can shake off an awful 2020 season. I like the class overall.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-20: OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA (my rank: 6)
I meant it when I stuck Mitchell well inside the top ten of my rankings. I don't think we've seen an amateur hitter with his combination of raw power, speed, and polish in a long time, and I think a team should have been perfectly happy to draft him in the top ten picks. So, why did Mitchell fall? I don't think any single team saw him as the 20th best player in the class, it's just that no single team felt comfortable spending their one first round pick on him. It's been well-publicized that he's a Type I diabetic, which concerned a lot of teams, but which personally I don't give a crap about. My fianceé is a diabetic athlete and she kicks ass on the equestrian circuit. Anyways, the diabetes talk ends there, because Mitchell is a hell of a ballplayer. He's a top of the scale runner who can change games with his speed, and he's a plus pure hitter that has hit .350/.419/.550 with six home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 44/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games since the start of the 2019 season. In batting practice, he shows parking lot power that should scare anybody parking beyond the outfield wall, right up there with some of the best power hitters in the class. However, he employs much more of a line drive approach in games and has hit just six home runs in 121 games in his college career, all of which came in 2019, instead spraying doubles and triples into the gaps and running wild on the bases. The Brewers had massive success with a similar hitter in Christian Yelich and will hope to help Mitchell tap that power way earlier in his career. If they can, he has Yelich-like upside, which is extremely exciting. Mitchell uses his speed well in the outfield and will be a plus defender in center field, adding in a cannon arm because why not. Slot value is $3.24 million. Pre-draft profile here.
2-53: SS Freddy Zamora, Miami (my rank: 88)
Zamora earns a lot of comparison to Rays competitive balance pick Alika Williams, and for good reason. A glove-first shortstop, he had a relatively strong showing with the bat as a sophomore in 2019, slashing .296/.393/.447 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and more walks (31) than strikeouts (27), but his stock has slipped since. He was briefly suspended over the offseason for "violating team rules," and just before the 2020 season began, he blew out his knee and would have missed the entire season even if it played out. He makes consistent, line drive contact from the right side, and while nobody is mistaking him for a power hitter, he's hit for more impact as he's grown and he could profile for close to average power. Defensively, he's supremely talented and can make the big play with anybody in this class, but he lacks focus at times and makes unnecessary mistakes. The Brewers have some rough edges to iron out with Zamora, but there is some really nice upside as a 10-15 home run bat who can get on base and play very good defense at shortstop. He signed for $1.15 million, which is $220,000 below slot, saving some money for other over slot candidates. Pre-draft profile here.
3-92: C Zavier Warren, Central Michigan (my rank: 108)
This is a really nice pickup fro the Brewers, one that could end up being a steal. Warren is an extremely consistent hitter who has produced everywhere he's gone, including an exceptional .363/.498/.571 slash line with eight home runs and more walks (59) than strikeouts (56) in 60 games as a sophomore and a strong showing on the Cape as well. He takes very professional at bats, working counts and hunting his pitch, and turns that into consistent line drive and extra base contact from both sides of the plate. While he will always be hit over power, there is some home run power in there as well, and he could profile for 15 or more per season with high on-base percentages if he reaches his ceiling. He's played shortstop at Central Michigan, but he profiles more at second or third base in pro ball because he lacks the necessary range. The Brewers, interestingly, drafted him as a catcher, a position he played in high school, and if they can refine his game back there, this could be a real steal. He's probably a utility infielder/fringe starter as it currently stands, still solid value for the third round, but as a catcher, that bat profiles as a full timer, huge value at pick #92. This will be interesting to watch. Slot value sits at $637,600, though I imagine he could take a slight discount.
4-121: OF Joey Wiemer, Cincinnati (my rank: 138)
The second straight Michigan native drafted by the Brewers, Wiemer might be the exact opposite of Warren as a player. While Warren is a professional, high-floor type with a great track record, Wiemer is all over the place and does not have a track record. Over three years at Cincinnati, Wiemer is a career .264/.379/.408 hitter with 12 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 104/71 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games, solidly decent numbers but nothing to write home about for a fourth round draft pick at a mid-major program. He's a lanky, 6'5" athlete with lots of raw pop and speed, but he hasn't put it together yet. He starts from a noisy setup in which he holds his hands high over his head before dropping them down in his load, using a big leg kick and a long follow through to generate power. He has an aggressive approach, too, but he toned it down a little bit in 2020 and everything considered, there still isn't that much swing and miss in his game. I mean, there is, but not as much as you'd expect given the profile. If the Brewers can calm Wiemer down a little bit, they could have a real breakout, power/speed threat on their hands. Slot value is $437,700, which sounds about right.
5-151: SS Hayden Cantrelle, Louisiana-Lafayette (my rank: 137)
Coming up to the 2020 season, Cantrelle looked like a top two rounds pick. He hit .309/.426/.504 with nine home runs and 28 stolen bases as a sophomore at Louisiana in 2019, the more than held his own with a .303/.404/.419 line over 42 games in the elite Cape Cod League. However, 2020 was a different story – over 17 games, he hit just .136/.320/.237 with one home run and a 16/12 strikeout to walk ratio. He wasn't getting many good pitches to hit and that threw a wrench in his approach at the plate, as he made lots of weak contact and just didn't produce at all. The Brewers are hoping those 17 games were just a fluke, as Cantrelle does show some real upside as a player. The switch hitter has a simple swing that ~usually~ produces consistent line drive contact and moderate power from a 5'11" frame, while his speed enables him to pick up extra bases when he drives the ball to the gaps. He's also a solid defender who could remain at shortstop with a little added refinement, though a guy like Freddy Zamora could push him off the position and let him become an above average second baseman. The upside here is 15-20 home runs a year with solid on-base percenages, but he'll have to get back to the hitter he was before and cut down on some moderate swing and miss as well. If Brewers fans want to get to know their fifth rounder, he's very active on his YouTube channel, 5Guy. Slot value is $353,700, but I think it might take a little bit more to get the Lafayette native out of Lafayette.
Undrafted: 2B Drew Smith, Grand Canyon (unranked)
Drew Smith, from the Omaha area, began his career at Creighton before spending two very successful years at Northeast CC in Nebraska, then transferred to Grand Canyon for his redshirt junior year. He was off to a hot start, slashing .315/.412/.466 with two home runs and a 7/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 games before the season shut down. Smith has a very simple, line drive swing from the right side of the plate, which when combined with good plate discipline, helps him make very consistent contact. There is some power in there as well, but at 5'10", he's unlikely to get to average in that regard. He probably fits as a utility infielder who can get on base and play hard, but the upside is relatively modest. Even though he's a redshirt junior, he's closer in age to a regular junior in that he doesn't turn 22 until September.
Showing posts with label Garrett Mitchell. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Garrett Mitchell. Show all posts
Sunday, June 28, 2020
Friday, March 20, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Garrett Mitchell
OF Garrett Mitchell, UCLA
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/4/1998. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 0 HR, .355/.425/.484, 5 SB, 3/6 K/BB in 15 games
I was a big fan of Mitchell coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in 2017, the same school that produced Gerrit Cole, and I ranked him 38th on my draft list that year while MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him 54th and 62nd, respectively. After two-plus years at UCLA, he has emerged as perhaps the most gifted player in the 2020 class. After an unremarkable freshman season, he showed off his ability with a .349/.418/.566 line, six home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 62 games in 2019, and he kept on hitting with a .355/.425/.484 line through 15 games in 2020.
In recent memory, there hasn't been a player with Mitchell's combination of polish, raw power, and speed to come through the draft. He can flat out put on a show in batting practice, with the ability to hit the ball as far as anyone in the college game. Mitchell can run, too, with his plus-plus speed serving him well both on the bases and in center field. Throw in a strong arm, and he's the toolsiest player in this draft class. He also makes consistent hard contact against high level pitching in the Pac-12, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages in pro ball. Mitchell's plate discipline has improved steadily throughout his college career, with his strikeout rate dropping from 22.6% as a freshman to 14.0% as a sophomore and down to 4.1% in a small sample as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate improved from 6.2% to 9.2% to 8.2% over the same span, further implying progress in that area.
One thing that leaves scouts wanting more is the discrepancy between Mitchell's raw power and his game power. We all know that his raw power is outstanding, but it has played much more to the gaps (24 doubles and 15 triples in 121 career college games) than it has over the fence (just six home runs in that span and none in 15 games in 2020). Mitchell's line drive approach has worked well for him in college, but in order to justify himself as a top five pick, scouts wanted more proof that he'll be able to turn those doubles and triples into home runs at the next level, and unfortunately he won't get a chance to do that in 2020. They also want to see him get a bit more patient at the plate, as his walk rates have remained low throughout college and he will be better off being a bit more selective against pro pitching in order to really tap that power.
A smaller but present concern that some teams with Mitchell is the fact that he has Type 1 diabetes. Personally though, I'm not concerned about that. He has proven more than capable of managing it so far in his college career, and players like Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Lowe have all had success with the condition. I may be a bit biased in all this because my fiancée is a Type 1 diabetic as well and she once won a horse jumping competition with extremely high blood sugar, but I stand firm.
Mitchell's range of outcomes in pro ball are wider than the typical high level college player. It's possible that pro coaching could unlock that game power and make him an annual 30-30 threat, especially with the consistent feel for the barrel and hitting in general he's shown so far. That five tool projection gives him a tremendous ceiling, and it's what puts him close to the top tier of draft prospects this year. However, the fact that he remains unproven in several areas of his game clouds that projection a bit, just enough to knock him just out of that first tier of players in this class. That ceiling makes him a virtual lock to go in the top half of the first round, though he's dropped a bit closer to the middle of the first round than the very front. He was a bit of a dark horse candidate to go first overall to the Tigers, though now without the opportunity to tap that game power nor the opportunity to show he can manage the diabetes over another 60-70 game season, that won't happen.
Batting practice and game footage with the US College National Team
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 9/4/1998. B/T: L/R
2020 Stats: 0 HR, .355/.425/.484, 5 SB, 3/6 K/BB in 15 games
I was a big fan of Mitchell coming out of Orange Lutheran High School in 2017, the same school that produced Gerrit Cole, and I ranked him 38th on my draft list that year while MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him 54th and 62nd, respectively. After two-plus years at UCLA, he has emerged as perhaps the most gifted player in the 2020 class. After an unremarkable freshman season, he showed off his ability with a .349/.418/.566 line, six home runs, and 18 stolen bases in 62 games in 2019, and he kept on hitting with a .355/.425/.484 line through 15 games in 2020.
In recent memory, there hasn't been a player with Mitchell's combination of polish, raw power, and speed to come through the draft. He can flat out put on a show in batting practice, with the ability to hit the ball as far as anyone in the college game. Mitchell can run, too, with his plus-plus speed serving him well both on the bases and in center field. Throw in a strong arm, and he's the toolsiest player in this draft class. He also makes consistent hard contact against high level pitching in the Pac-12, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages in pro ball. Mitchell's plate discipline has improved steadily throughout his college career, with his strikeout rate dropping from 22.6% as a freshman to 14.0% as a sophomore and down to 4.1% in a small sample as a junior. Meanwhile, his walk rate improved from 6.2% to 9.2% to 8.2% over the same span, further implying progress in that area.
One thing that leaves scouts wanting more is the discrepancy between Mitchell's raw power and his game power. We all know that his raw power is outstanding, but it has played much more to the gaps (24 doubles and 15 triples in 121 career college games) than it has over the fence (just six home runs in that span and none in 15 games in 2020). Mitchell's line drive approach has worked well for him in college, but in order to justify himself as a top five pick, scouts wanted more proof that he'll be able to turn those doubles and triples into home runs at the next level, and unfortunately he won't get a chance to do that in 2020. They also want to see him get a bit more patient at the plate, as his walk rates have remained low throughout college and he will be better off being a bit more selective against pro pitching in order to really tap that power.
A smaller but present concern that some teams with Mitchell is the fact that he has Type 1 diabetes. Personally though, I'm not concerned about that. He has proven more than capable of managing it so far in his college career, and players like Sam Fuld, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Lowe have all had success with the condition. I may be a bit biased in all this because my fiancée is a Type 1 diabetic as well and she once won a horse jumping competition with extremely high blood sugar, but I stand firm.
Mitchell's range of outcomes in pro ball are wider than the typical high level college player. It's possible that pro coaching could unlock that game power and make him an annual 30-30 threat, especially with the consistent feel for the barrel and hitting in general he's shown so far. That five tool projection gives him a tremendous ceiling, and it's what puts him close to the top tier of draft prospects this year. However, the fact that he remains unproven in several areas of his game clouds that projection a bit, just enough to knock him just out of that first tier of players in this class. That ceiling makes him a virtual lock to go in the top half of the first round, though he's dropped a bit closer to the middle of the first round than the very front. He was a bit of a dark horse candidate to go first overall to the Tigers, though now without the opportunity to tap that game power nor the opportunity to show he can manage the diabetes over another 60-70 game season, that won't happen.
Batting practice and game footage with the US College National Team
Monday, February 10, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1
The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Top 10 Prospects to Reach NCAA - 2018
The MLB draft is different from the NBA and NFL drafts in that high schoolers are eligible to be drafted and often sign, greatly reducing the amount of talent in college baseball. If Major League Baseball functioned the same way as other sports, many of today's top prospects, including the Rockies' Brendan Rodgers (Florida State), the Blue Jays' Bo Bichette (Arizona State), the Indians' Triston McKenzie (Vanderbilt), the Astros' Kyle Tucker (Florida) and Forrest Whitley (Florida State), and the Phillies Mickey Moniak (UCLA) would be in college right now, making their mark on their programs and perhaps the College World Series. However, some of the top talent can sneak through, as we see with some of the top 2015 draft prospects, Florida star Brady Singer and TCU star Luken Baker. In this slow offseason, let's take a look at the top 2017 high school talent to reach the NCAA, according to my pre-draft rankings from June. The rankings denote where I ranked them among all draft eligible players, not just high schoolers.
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
1. OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA). 2017 rank: #38
I was much higher on Mitchell than most, and he chose to attend UCLA rather than accept a 14th round draft selection by the Oakland A's. Mitchell is a bit raw as a prospect, but he's an excellent athlete that reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence. His swing is long and flat and needs work, but the bat is in the zone for a very long time, and looks a lot like Pence's swing. One reason his draft stock fell a bit was due to his diabetes, but if he can show he can manage it with the Bruins, he could emerge a first rounder. Pence didn't even end up at a Division I school right away, beginning his career at Texarkana College, but he mashed for two seasons at UT-Arlington (16 HR, .368/.421/.585) before teams took him seriously enough to draft him. Mitchell could have a similar career after he transitions to Pac-12 pitching.
2. RHP Tanner Burns (Auburn). 2017 rank: #43
Auburn was able to pry top draft prospect Davis Daniel away from the Cubs in 2016, and they got an even more highly regarded draft prospect in Tanner Burns. A pitcher like Daniel, Burns could have gone in the second round, but he fell to the 39th and chose the Auburn Tigers over the Yankees. Daniel didn't get going right away (5.89 ERA, 1.44 WHIP as a freshman in 2017), but Burns comes in much more polished and could make an impact quickly for the Tigers. While his stuff seemed borderline for MLB teams looking to draft him, it should translate right away to facing SEC hitters, with a low to mid 90's fastball, an inconsistent but at times great curveball, and a changeup that is coming along. He's not a control artist but can command it reasonably well, and in addition to working with Daniel, he'll join arguably the top pitcher in college baseball, Casey Mize, in what looks to be an exceptionally talented Auburn rotation featuring three big league prospects.
3. LHP Jake Eder (Vanderbilt). 2017 rank: #59
Vanderbilt always loses quite a few recruits to the MLB draft, but they usually land at least one top draft prospect, including Alonzo Jones and the late Donny Everett from the 2015 high school class. Eder is the biggest prospect to make it to campus since Everett, standing 6'4" and coming in with a low 90's fastball, some secondaries to work with, and very little in the command/mechanics department. Unlike Burns, he won't have an immediate impact on a Vandy rotation that already includes Patrick Raby (10-4, 2.73 ERA), Chandler Day (7-2, 3.78 ERA), and Drake Fellows (3-3, 3.30 ERA), but he may be Vanderbilt's 2020 ace if they can clean up his mechanics, which I believe are the root of the problem for his lack of command and consistent secondary stuff. At a school that has recently produced superstar pitching prospects Kyle Wright, Jordan Sheffield, Carson Fulmer, and Walker Buehler, there may be no better place for him to work on everything.
4. OF Daniel Cabrera (Louisiana State). 2017 rank: #73
Unlike Eder, Daniel Cabrera will be ready to contribute on day one in Baton Rouge. LSU seems to always have stars in its outfield, most recently Greg Deichmann and Jake Fraley, and Cabrera can join well regarded 2018 draft prospects Zach Watson and Antoine Duplantis in tracking down fly balls at Alex Box Stadium. Cabrera earned his draft stock more from having an advanced, polished bat than from having a high ceiling, which means he's ready to face SEC pitching now and shouldn't have too much trouble transitioning. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but he knows himself as a hitter and can spray line drives all over the field. By his sophomore year, he could be hitting near the top of the LSU lineup and being the next in a line of great Tigers outfielders.
5. LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M). 2017 rank: #78
Our fourth straight SEC recruit lands in College Station, where he could be the next great Aggie arm. In the upper 80's, his fastball isn't fast enough to blow by SEC hitters yet, but he's very projectable and already has an advanced changeup and a good curveball. He seems like the kind of guy that could put it together and surprise everyone, turning into not just a star but a superstar at the NCAA level. He has a ways to go, but I get a good feeling with him.
6. RHP Bryce Bonnin (Arkansas). 2017 rank. #82
The Arkansas Razorbacks have to be excited about their pitching staff in 2018, because not only did highly regarded 2017 draft prospect Blaine Knight (8-4, 3.28 ERA) turn down the Rangers as a draft-eligible sophomore, but high schooler Bryce Bonnin is skipping out on the Cubs and joining Knight in Fayetteville. Our fifth straight SEC recruit on this list has a deadly fastball/slider combination, but unlike Burns and Lacy, I feel like he could use some time working out of the bullpen as a freshman. His loose arm works well with his stuff, but he does need to tighten his command and work on his changeup, where the bullpen could serve as the perfect practice ground. By his junior year, he could be one of the best arms in the SEC.
7. SS Greg Jones (UNC-Wilmington). 2017 rank: #84
Jones is a little different from the other hitters on this list in that a) he'll be draft eligible as a sophomore in 2019 and b) he's joining a mid-major school, rather than a power five like the players above him. UNC-Wilmington will have less time time to work with him if he decides to go pro after his sophomore season, but his transition will also be easier due to the lower level of play of mid-major schools. Jones is very raw as a player as he experienced a late growth spurt in high school, but he is toolsy as they come with blinding speed and more power potential than you would expect from a skinny 5'11" shortstop. Due to the mid-major nature of UNC-Wilmington, Jones will have a chance to contribute right away, though we should expect some growing pains from him. He'll probably strike out a ton early, but the Seahawks are known for their offensive prowess and he'll be right in the middle.
8. RHP Chris McMahon (Miami). 2017 rank: #92
McMahon's arrival at Miami will be similar to Burns' at Auburn in that he should be ready to contribute early on. He throws low 90's and can command it fairly well, and his curveball and changeup are ready for the ACC now. Miami struggled last year, but landing a big recruit like McMahon could help spark the team in 2018, especially as they return most of their roster.
9. RHP Kyle Hurt (Southern California). 2017 rank: #98
USC hasn't been great at landing their top draft-eligible recruits, but they did grab a solid pitcher in Kyle Hurt. Like UNCW's Greg Jones, he'll be eligible for the draft as a sophomore, and like Jones, he does have work to do. He works with three good pitches in a low 90's fastball, a hard curveball, and a nice changeup, but his curve and change do lack consistency. He looked really good over the summer of 2016, but hurt his knee in the winter and had some bumps in his recovery. Hurt is a little bit of a wild card, but if he overcomes his inconsistency issues, he could be a durable starter for the Trojans.
10. RHP C.J. Van Eyk (Florida State). 2017 rank: #107
Florida State landed the top high school prospect to forgo signing in the 2016 draft, Drew Mendoza, and this year they grabbed the number ten guy, C.J. Van Eyk (as well as would-be #11 Shane Drohan, who just missed this list). Mendoza had a very successful freshman year (10 HR, .270/.400/.534), and Van Eyk will look to follow in his footsteps by making an immediate impact. More talented than a few of the guys above him on this list, Van Eyk only ranks so low because at draft time he was a Tommy John candidate, but it looks like he has avoided the surgery. Van Eyk throws a fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent curveball, though his command does tend to deteriorate has the throws harder. FSU will have two big things to work on with him: helping him bring his command with him into the higher velocity bands and building him up so he can be durable enough to last a full college season. Once that happens, he could be the next Seminole ace. He joins a very talented FSU pitching staff that includes highly regarded 2018 draft prospects Tyler Holton (10-3, 2.34 ERA) and Cole Sands (6-4, 5.40 ERA, but is better than the numbers say) as well as the aforementioned Drohan.
Edit: 3a. SS Brady McConnell (Florida). 2017 rank: #58
I missed McConnell by mistake when originally compiling this list, but he slotted one spot ahead of Vanderbilt's Jake Eder and should have been number three. McConnell is a slick-fielding shortstop with a smooth, powerful swing for a skinny guy, contracting and unloading on pitches with his legs. Unfortunately, because his swing relies on a fair amount of pre-pitch movement, he was a bit inconsistent in the spring and fell from a first round candidate to more of a second round talent, causing him to pack up and head to Gainesville instead of signing with an MLB team. Being that Florida, the reigning national champion, is still perhaps the most talented team in the country, McConnell will join a very talented infield that includes well-regarded draft prospects Jonathan India and Deacon Liput, and his spot may be open with the departure of Dalton Guthrie. We've heard more about the simply ridiculous pitching staff that includes potential first overall pick Brady Singer, fellow potential first rounder Jackson Kowar, and superstar closer Michael Byrne, as well as top recruit Hunter Ruth (see "Others" below), but this Florida team is as well-rounded, talented, and dangerous as college teams come.
Others: #118 LHP Shane Drohan (Florida State), #119 RHP Gavin Williams (East Carolina), #120 RHP Hunter Ruth (Florida), #122 C Philip Clark (Vanderbilt), #127 RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina)
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Oakland Athletics
First 5 rounds: Austin Beck (1-6), Kevin Merrell (CBA-33), Greg Deichmann (2-43), Nick Allen (3-81), Will Toffey (4-111), Santi Sanchez (5-141)
Also notable: Parker Dunshee (7-201), Brian Howard (8-231), Jared Poche (9-261), Garrett Mitchell (14-411), Heath Donica (21-621), Hunter Hargrove (25-741)
The A's had a pretty interesting draft, reaching for some players (in my opinion) but also making some good selections. As the draft wore on, they took on a lot of big name college players, which is why you see so many in the "also notable" section, which doesn't even get all of them. As always, the A's placed a premium on guys who know how to get on base, and that should be expected now 15 years after the Moneyball draft.
1-6: OF Austin Beck (my rank: 8)
Beck, a North Carolina high school outfielder, was on nobody's radar at the beginning of the season, but he hit his way not only into the first round, but into the top ten picks, literally right out of the gate. His plus-plus bat speed generates huge power from the right side, and combined with his overall athleticism, he has one of the highest ceilings of his whole draft. If this draft is going to produce any Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, or Kris Bryants, Beck has a good chance to be the guy. That said, he is very raw as a player and there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, so the risk is extremely high. Basically, Beck could be Mike Trout, or he could never make the majors. I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch. Beck signed an at-slot bonus of just over $5.3 million.
CBA-33: SS/CF Kevin Merrell (my rank: 75)
Yeah, I don't love this pick. There are a lot of people who really like Merrell, but I just am not one of them, because I don't think any of his power will translate to the next level and he really profiles as a fourth outfielder in my opinion. That said, the USF star's supporters will point to his excellent .384/.464/.569 slash line this season, coupled with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases for the Bulls. He is one of the fastest players in this draft and possibly the fastest in the entire college crop, and his solid bat to ball skills give him a high floor. If he can stick as a shortstop, he has a Jose Reyes ceiling, but his defense at short is so-so and he may have to move to centerfield, where he will be above average defensively. Merrell signed for $1.8 million, which is $233,500 below slot.
2-43: OF Greg Deichmann (my rank: 68)
I also don't love this pick, but I'm more willing to hop on the Deichmann train at pick 43 than I am on the Merrell train at pick 33. Deichmann was decent for LSU in 2016 (.288/.346/.513, 11 HR), but he turned down the Twins in the 26th round. That turned out to be a great decision, as he slashed .309/.418/.583 with 19 home runs for the Tigers this year, showcasing an advanced power bat with desirable leadership skills. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game (19% strikeout rate), but he does walk a lot (15.8%) and has improved his plate discipline significantly this year. He is on the older side for a college junior, having turned 22 in May, but he can be a 20 homer bat as a corner outfielder down the road. Deichmann has not signed, but it's hard to see him holding out for too long.
3-81: SS Nick Allen (my rank: 23)
Nick Allen is awesome, and if signability wasn't an issue, he could have gone 50 picks higher, or more. On talent alone, Allen is an easy first rounder, perhaps a top ten pick, but he stands just 5'8" with a skinny build, so teams were understandably scared off by his size. However, as I said, he's just awesome. His defensive skills at shortstop are unmatched in this draft, as he shows both incredible range and great arm strength, so there could easily be Gold Gloves in his future. At the plate, he shows very good contact ability, though his power will likely always be well below average due to his size. However, I think he could improve to simply below average power and knock ten home runs per season in the bigs if he can add loft to his swing and stop leaking his power over his front foot. Even without power, he can be an extremely valuable player because of his defense and hitting ability. To top it all off, area scouts absolutely love his character, leadership, intensity, and knowledge of the game. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve have succeeded in the majors, so Allen could too. I comped him to Omar Vizquel; how does that sound? Allen hasn't signed yet, and if he does, it will certainly be well over slot.
4-111: 3B Will Toffey (my rank: 95)
Toffey is another one of the more interesting players in the draft. A redshirt junior, Toffey already turned 22 in December, and after two unspectacular seasons at Vanderbilt, he wasn't the hottest name heading into this draft. Though he doesn't have any big tools, he just quietly and steadily hit his way up draft boards, and finished the season slashing .354/.475/.602 with 12 home runs for the Commodores. He shows average to slightly above average power, and average bat, and good defense at third base, but his offensive tools should play up due to his advanced approach at the plate (18.3% walk rate to 11.5% strikeout rate). I really like Toffey, and with his clean swing, I comped him to Chase Headley. He signed an at-slot bonus of $482,600.
14-411: CF Garrett Mitchell (my rank: 38)
Here in the 14th round, Mitchell probably won't sign, especially if the A's can get Nick Allen. However, I'm a big fan of Mitchell, more so than most. He is one of the faster players in this draft, and he should have no problem sticking as an above average centerfielder. At the plate, he has a long, flat swing, but he keeps the barrel of the bat in the zone for a very long time, and the long swing worries me much less because of that. His swing actually reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence, and Mitchell could be a similar player.
Others: 7th rounder Parker Dunshee kicked off a streak of three straight big name senior pitchers from big name programs, as Dunshee has been a stalwart in the Wake Forest rotation for two years and a vital member of its pitching staff for four years. Over the four years, he went 28-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 78 games (36 starts), striking out 322 batters over 318.1 innings. He was also great on the Cape back in 2015 (3-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). 8th rounder Brian Howard comes from TCU, where he had a similar four year career to Dunshee (26-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 62 games [40 starts]). Howard is a massive, 6'9" right hander with a classic back-end starter projection. 9th rounder Jared Poche was a teammate of Deichmann's at LSU, where Poche has become the school's all time wins leader after going 39-12 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 72 games (69 starts). He doesn't have great stuff, and he'll have to fight to be a #5 starter, but few can match his feel for pitching and ability to work with what he has. He actually had an amazing start to his season that would look really good here, but college baseball does an awful job of keeping stats and LSU doesn't have a game log listed for Poche. I could go through each of his first starts manually by sifting through their box scores but I can just tell you he was untouchable at the beginning of the season. 21st rounder Heath Donica pitched two years for Sam Houston State, where he went 19-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 35 games (32 starts), though he did turn 23 in May. 25th rounder Hunter Hargrove comes from another big name program, Texas Tech, and he had his best season in 2017 by slashing .343/.423/.535 with five home runs for the Red Raiders. It will be tough for him to move up as a first baseman with below average power, but he could find a home in an outfield corner as well.
Also notable: Parker Dunshee (7-201), Brian Howard (8-231), Jared Poche (9-261), Garrett Mitchell (14-411), Heath Donica (21-621), Hunter Hargrove (25-741)
The A's had a pretty interesting draft, reaching for some players (in my opinion) but also making some good selections. As the draft wore on, they took on a lot of big name college players, which is why you see so many in the "also notable" section, which doesn't even get all of them. As always, the A's placed a premium on guys who know how to get on base, and that should be expected now 15 years after the Moneyball draft.
1-6: OF Austin Beck (my rank: 8)
Beck, a North Carolina high school outfielder, was on nobody's radar at the beginning of the season, but he hit his way not only into the first round, but into the top ten picks, literally right out of the gate. His plus-plus bat speed generates huge power from the right side, and combined with his overall athleticism, he has one of the highest ceilings of his whole draft. If this draft is going to produce any Mike Trouts, Bryce Harpers, or Kris Bryants, Beck has a good chance to be the guy. That said, he is very raw as a player and there is a lot of swing and miss in his game, so the risk is extremely high. Basically, Beck could be Mike Trout, or he could never make the majors. I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch. Beck signed an at-slot bonus of just over $5.3 million.
CBA-33: SS/CF Kevin Merrell (my rank: 75)
Yeah, I don't love this pick. There are a lot of people who really like Merrell, but I just am not one of them, because I don't think any of his power will translate to the next level and he really profiles as a fourth outfielder in my opinion. That said, the USF star's supporters will point to his excellent .384/.464/.569 slash line this season, coupled with seven home runs and 19 stolen bases for the Bulls. He is one of the fastest players in this draft and possibly the fastest in the entire college crop, and his solid bat to ball skills give him a high floor. If he can stick as a shortstop, he has a Jose Reyes ceiling, but his defense at short is so-so and he may have to move to centerfield, where he will be above average defensively. Merrell signed for $1.8 million, which is $233,500 below slot.
2-43: OF Greg Deichmann (my rank: 68)
I also don't love this pick, but I'm more willing to hop on the Deichmann train at pick 43 than I am on the Merrell train at pick 33. Deichmann was decent for LSU in 2016 (.288/.346/.513, 11 HR), but he turned down the Twins in the 26th round. That turned out to be a great decision, as he slashed .309/.418/.583 with 19 home runs for the Tigers this year, showcasing an advanced power bat with desirable leadership skills. There is still a lot of swing and miss in his game (19% strikeout rate), but he does walk a lot (15.8%) and has improved his plate discipline significantly this year. He is on the older side for a college junior, having turned 22 in May, but he can be a 20 homer bat as a corner outfielder down the road. Deichmann has not signed, but it's hard to see him holding out for too long.
3-81: SS Nick Allen (my rank: 23)
Nick Allen is awesome, and if signability wasn't an issue, he could have gone 50 picks higher, or more. On talent alone, Allen is an easy first rounder, perhaps a top ten pick, but he stands just 5'8" with a skinny build, so teams were understandably scared off by his size. However, as I said, he's just awesome. His defensive skills at shortstop are unmatched in this draft, as he shows both incredible range and great arm strength, so there could easily be Gold Gloves in his future. At the plate, he shows very good contact ability, though his power will likely always be well below average due to his size. However, I think he could improve to simply below average power and knock ten home runs per season in the bigs if he can add loft to his swing and stop leaking his power over his front foot. Even without power, he can be an extremely valuable player because of his defense and hitting ability. To top it all off, area scouts absolutely love his character, leadership, intensity, and knowledge of the game. Guys like Dustin Pedroia and Jose Altuve have succeeded in the majors, so Allen could too. I comped him to Omar Vizquel; how does that sound? Allen hasn't signed yet, and if he does, it will certainly be well over slot.
4-111: 3B Will Toffey (my rank: 95)
Toffey is another one of the more interesting players in the draft. A redshirt junior, Toffey already turned 22 in December, and after two unspectacular seasons at Vanderbilt, he wasn't the hottest name heading into this draft. Though he doesn't have any big tools, he just quietly and steadily hit his way up draft boards, and finished the season slashing .354/.475/.602 with 12 home runs for the Commodores. He shows average to slightly above average power, and average bat, and good defense at third base, but his offensive tools should play up due to his advanced approach at the plate (18.3% walk rate to 11.5% strikeout rate). I really like Toffey, and with his clean swing, I comped him to Chase Headley. He signed an at-slot bonus of $482,600.
14-411: CF Garrett Mitchell (my rank: 38)
Here in the 14th round, Mitchell probably won't sign, especially if the A's can get Nick Allen. However, I'm a big fan of Mitchell, more so than most. He is one of the faster players in this draft, and he should have no problem sticking as an above average centerfielder. At the plate, he has a long, flat swing, but he keeps the barrel of the bat in the zone for a very long time, and the long swing worries me much less because of that. His swing actually reminds me of a left handed Hunter Pence, and Mitchell could be a similar player.
Others: 7th rounder Parker Dunshee kicked off a streak of three straight big name senior pitchers from big name programs, as Dunshee has been a stalwart in the Wake Forest rotation for two years and a vital member of its pitching staff for four years. Over the four years, he went 28-10 with a 3.25 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 78 games (36 starts), striking out 322 batters over 318.1 innings. He was also great on the Cape back in 2015 (3-2, 2.16 ERA, 0.93 WHIP). 8th rounder Brian Howard comes from TCU, where he had a similar four year career to Dunshee (26-5, 3.46 ERA, 1.17 WHIP over 62 games [40 starts]). Howard is a massive, 6'9" right hander with a classic back-end starter projection. 9th rounder Jared Poche was a teammate of Deichmann's at LSU, where Poche has become the school's all time wins leader after going 39-12 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 72 games (69 starts). He doesn't have great stuff, and he'll have to fight to be a #5 starter, but few can match his feel for pitching and ability to work with what he has. He actually had an amazing start to his season that would look really good here, but college baseball does an awful job of keeping stats and LSU doesn't have a game log listed for Poche. I could go through each of his first starts manually by sifting through their box scores but I can just tell you he was untouchable at the beginning of the season. 21st rounder Heath Donica pitched two years for Sam Houston State, where he went 19-6 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP over 35 games (32 starts), though he did turn 23 in May. 25th rounder Hunter Hargrove comes from another big name program, Texas Tech, and he had his best season in 2017 by slashing .343/.423/.535 with five home runs for the Red Raiders. It will be tough for him to move up as a first baseman with below average power, but he could find a home in an outfield corner as well.
Thursday, June 8, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: Toolsy Prep Hitters
First Tier: Royce Lewis, Austin Beck, Jordon Adell
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
Second Tier: Drew Waters, Bubba Thompson, Garrett Mitchell, Quentin Holmes, Heliot Ramos
Third Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Conner Uselton, Cole Brannen, Greg Jones
Others: Jake Holmes, Adam Hall, Ricardo De La Torre, Jordan Anderson
We're going to move into some group draft previews now, focusing on demographics. "Toolsy prep hitters" are easy to dream on; after all, this is where you get the Mike Trouts, Andrew McCutchens, Corey Seagers, and Francisco Lindors. However, very often, it's also where you get the Courtney Hawkins's, Bubba Starlings, and Tim Beckhams, recent first rounders who never even came close to living up to expectations (Beckham was the first overall pick in 2008). You'll see words like "athletic," "risk," and "upside" thrown around a lot with these players. Coming out of high school, these guys are high risk, high reward, and extremely fun to watch.
Tier I (Lewis, Beck, Adell)
Three guys have firmly placed themselves at the top of this list, led by San Diego prep star Royce Lewis. Lewis' main tools are hit and run, where he ranks among the top players of the class, prep or not, and his swing mechanics make it easy to dream on future added power. Austin Beck and Jordon Adell both have similar profiles, known for their power, speed, arm strength, and question marks surrounding their contact abilities. Beck's contact concerns come more from a lack of exposure to high level pitching than to any fault of his own, while Adell's have played out in front of scouts. Beck's power comes from his plus-plus bat speed, while Adell's comes more from his athleticism. Adell is the better defensive player, but Beck is thought of as a slightly lower risk, giving him the slight edge on most draft boards. All three project to come off the board in the first half of the first round, and at least two will likely be gone in the top ten.
Tier II (Waters, Thompson, Mitchell, Holmes, Ramos)
These five players all project to come off the board somewhere in the back half of the first round, supplemental round, or second round. Drew Waters is a personal favorite of mine, a switch hitting outfielder with across the board tools. He doesn't have the limitless raw athleticism of the guys in the first tier, but he is a better bet to hit for contact and has explosive bat speed and above average fielding abilities. Bubba Thompson is likely to be the first player taken out of this tier, as an extremely talented quarterback who had scholarship offers from Ole Miss and Tennessee. The same athleticism that makes him a superstar football player show on the baseball diamond, with the ability to be an impact hitter. Garrett Mitchell is ranked higher on my list than on anybody else's, and he's likely to slide to the back of the second round or even the third round, but his swing and athleticism remind me of Hunter Pence and I think he has the ceiling of a similar player. Quentin Holmes may be the fastest player in this whole draft, clocking in with rare 80 grade speed. A very young high school senior (still 17) that comes from an inner-city, northern school in Queens, he may have highest upside in this tier, made even higher by his reportedly strong makeup. He'll need a lot of development, but speed aside, his swing shows a lot of potential if it can be streamlined by pro coaching. Lastly, Heliot Ramos is a polarizing player, as he two months younger than Holmes, making him one of the very youngest players in the whole draft class. He has a similar profile to Thompson, though he is more than a year younger, has more pop, and has less speed and arm strength. Thompson is a safer bet to maximize his tools, but Ramos has the higher ceiling.
Tier III (Seise, McConnell, Uselton, Brannen, Jones)
None of these five are likely to go before the second round unless they sign an underslot deal, but all have intriguing upside and should be gone by the end of the third round unless signability becomes an issue. Chris Seise is the best player in this tier and I originally had him as a second tier player, but his relatively lower ceiling caused me to drop him to the front of Tier III. An athletic shortstop, his hitting has made big time strides this season, causing MLB.com to actually rank him two spots above Ramos. As a strong defender who can stick at shortstop, further development of his bat will determine if he's a Starlin Castro type starter or a Wilmer Difo type utility man. Brady McConnell entered the spring as a potential first rounder, but an inconsistent senior season has damaged his stock to the point where he's about on-par with or a little below Seise. Like Seise, he's a solid defender, with more range but slightly less arm strength, and his bat profiles similarly a well, even if his mechanics don't. McConnell generates his power by contracting his body then exploding outwards, which means he has a higher offensive ceiling but a lower floor than Seise, as his mechanics are tied to his hand-eye coordination and ability to recognize pitches. Conner Uselton, like Thompson, was a star quarterback, but he's not quite at Thompson's level, either on the football field or the baseball one. He generates some of the biggest power and bat speed in this class, but contact concerns likely drop him out of the first two rounds, as he doesn't have same upside as Adell or Beck to make the risk worthwhile that early. Cole Brannen focuses more on contact, and will likely be the best defender of this group, albeit as an outfielder. Brett Gardner is a realistic ceiling here. Lastly, Greg Jones, like Seise, has some helium going for him. Already 19 and therefore very old for this high school class, Jones' game is a mix of Drew Waters and Quentin Holmes. Like Waters, he's a switch hitter with high upside for his power, but like Holmes, he is among the fastest players in this draft class. He's considerably more raw than Waters, and he doesn't get the plus grades for makeup that Holmes gets, so he's a very risky pick.
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