It was a really, really interesting year for the Royals system, and I mean that in both a good way and a bad way, but mostly a good way. First off, four different affiliates won their league championships in the Dominican Summer League (complex), the Pioneer League (rookie), the South Atlantic League (Class A), and the Carolina League (High A), so that's great for them. Second off, they had five of the first 58 picks in the 2018 draft, spent all five on pitchers, and all five broke out for exceptional seasons as Brady Singer and Jackson Kowar reached AA and Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jonathan Bowlan reached High A, and fifth rounder Austin Cox and sixth rounder Zach Haake even got in on the fun with highly successful seasons of their own. Just the top of that 2018 draft alone leaves this system in a much better spot than it was a year ago and certainly two years ago, as they now have a legitimate handful of impact starting pitching options.
On the flip side, the hitters had a really weird year. Save for Brewer Hicklen, it seems like hitting prospect who touched High A Wilmington just absolutely sucked. I don't think Nick Pratto (.191/.278/.310), MJ Melendez (.163/.260/.311), and Seuly Matias (.148/.259/.307) could have possibly hit any worse, and the injury-slowed Kyle Isbel (.216/.282/.361) and Michael Gigliotti (.184/.268/.230) didn't fair much better in their brief time there while Marten Gasparini (.122/.140/.163) retired 16 games in. I mean, I have no idea what happened down there, but what an absolute disaster. Wilmington struggles aside, when it comes to position players, the strength of this system is definitely speed, as Nick Heath and Khalil Lee finished first and second in the minors with 60 and 53 stolen bases, respectively, while Hicklen added 39 and Gigliotti tacked on 36.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars and Burlington Royals, complex level AZL and DSL Royals
Catcher
- Nick Dini (2020 Age: 26-27): Dini was a 14th round pick out of Wagner College back in 2015, and he's hit everywhere he's gone even if he was really only there for his defense. In 2019, he slashed .296/.370/.565 with 13 home runs and a 29/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games at AAA Omaha, then hit .196/.270/.357 with two home runs in a 20 game call-up to the majors. That major league line probably accurately represents his talent level, as he can make consistent contact but overall doesn't hit for much impact. The Royals are probably pretty set behind the plate with Perez, Meibrys Viloria, and Cam Gallagher, but if somebody gets hurt, Dini should get the call considering the Royals don't have much else going on in terms of upper minors catching.
- MJ Melendez (2020 Age: 21): Melendez was the Royals' second round pick out of a South Florida high school in 2017, then after he improved his stock by slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs in his first full season in 2018, he slumped hard in 2019 and hit just .163/.260/.311 with nine home runs and a 165/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Wilmington. Wilmington's pitcher-friendly confines completely swallowed up his power (.133/.248/.243 at home), but he still hit just .189/.271/.374 on the road as Carolina League pitchers continuously exploited the holes in his left handed swing. Melendez draws his fair share of walks and creates good power from his whippy swing, giving him the offensive tools needed for the majors, but he just hasn't figured out higher level pitching yet and will need significant work with his approach. He's turned himself into an excellent defender, so there's just about as little pressure on the bat as their could be and since he's set to play all of 2020 at 21 years old, he still factors in as the Royals' potential heir to Salvador Perez.
- Keep an eye on: Freddy Fermin, Omar Hernandez, Guillermo Quintana
Corner Infield
- Kelvin Gutierrez (2020 Age: 25): The Royals acquired Gutierrez from the Nationals in the Kelvin Herrera trade in 2018, primarily for his glove. In 2019, he slashed .287/.367/.427 with nine home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 71/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games at AAA Omaha, mixing in some big league playing time and slashing .260/.304/.356 with one home run in 20 games for the Royals. As with Nick Dini, that big league slash line is about an accurate portrayal of his bat, as he can make consistent hard contact but doesn't get the ball off the ground enough to tap into the power in his 6'3" frame. Joining the fly ball revolution could be beneficial for him, but the real value is in his glove, as he's a plus defender at third base. If he can indeed add power by lifting the ball more, the Royals aren't too deep at the corners at the major league level and he could crack the starting lineup at some point in 2020.
- Emmanuel Rivera (2020 Age: 23-24): Rivera is a pretty similar player to Gutierrez, just a year or so behind. In 2019, he slashed .258/.297/.345 with seven home runs and a 77/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Northwest Arkansas, continuing the trend of his bat losing impact as he's faced better and better pitching up the minor league rungs. He has a bit less raw pop than Gutierrez, and while he's gotten better about about getting off the ground with his launch angle, it hasn't really helped him tap it and he probably doesn't profile for more than ten or so home runs annually at the major league level. He's an aggressive hitter but that doesn't hamper his contact ability, as he makes consistent contact and is tough to strike out. With his good defense at third base, he has a good chance to work his way onto the roster as a bench bat, but he's unlikely to profile as more.
- Nick Pratto (2020 Age: 21): Pratto was drafted in the middle of the first round out of a Southern California high school in 2017, and he and second rounder MJ Melendez have pretty much followed each other step for step. Like Melendez, Pratto hit well at Class A in his first full season (.280/.343/.443, 14 HR), then like Melendez, he slumped hard in High A in 2019. While Melendez hit .163/.260/.311, Pratto was just a hair better at .191/.278/.310 with nine home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 164/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games for Wilmington. Fortunately, he did pick it up a bit by slashing .218/.295/.401 in the second half, still not what you want to see but at least better. Pratto was drafted on the basis of his advanced hitting ability, but the strike zone management has not been nearly as good as advertised in pro ball and while that didn't hurt him too much in Class A, it really caught up to him in High A. When drafted, he looked like a 15-25 homer bat who could post high on-base percentages, and he'll need to do significant work to get close to that. Like Melendez, he'll play all of 2020 at 21 years old, but there is more pressure on his bat given that he plays first base. On the bright side, he's a very good defender there, so he still provides positive value in the field despite playing a less important position.
- Keep an eye on: Humberto Arteaga, D.J. Burt, Vinnie Pasquantino
Middle Infield
- Gabriel Cancel (2020 Age: 23): Cancel has moved slowly through the minors, one level at a time, and he slashed .246/.308/.427 with 18 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Northwest Arkansas. He has an explosive right handed swing that's enabled him to hit for solid average power in the minors, and he's also put up three straight seasons with at least 30 doubles. However, the one thing holding him back offensively is his strike zone judgement, as he hasn't been able to make consistent enough to really drive the ball out of the park as often as he'd like. With fringy defense that will probably land him at second or third base, he has to tap that power, but it's also the only thing holding him back from being a very useful bench bat at the major league level. The Royals are not very deep, so he does have a good chance to hit his way onto the team in 2020.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (2020 Age: 19-20): Witt was the consensus best high school prospect available in the 2019 draft, and the Royals picked him second overall out of his Dallas-Fort Worth-area high school and signed him for almost $7.8 million. His pro debut was unremarkable, as he slashed .262/.317/.354 with a home run, nine stolen bases, and a 35/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 games in the complex level Arizona League, but there is no denying his talent. He generates a ton of power from the right side with an all-out swing, and while that led to some swing and miss earlier in his high school career, he improved in that regard in his senior season and should have no issues tapping his power in pro ball. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and should only get better, giving him the chance to be an impact player on both sides of the ball with a ceiling of 25-30 home runs and good on-base percentages. Of course, like any high school prospect, he has a lot of work to do to get there, and there's always the risk that the hit tool doesn't play up. With an athlete like Witt, though, you'd be smart to bet on the ceiling and not on the floor.
- Brady McConnell (2020 Age: 21-22): McConnell was a potential day one pick coming out of a Florida high school in 2017, but he instead opted to attend Florida then barely played as a true freshman in 2018 behind eventual Dodgers tenth round pick Deacon Liput. He then broke out in a huge way as a draft eligible sophomore in 2019, riding that to a second round selection by the Royals and slashing .213/.288/.400 with five home runs and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games between the complex level Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls (though all but two games were at the higher level). Those numbers from his debut were about what was expected given his profile. He finds the barrel very easily and produces good power from the right side, but he's also a very aggressive hitter that loves to take healthy, aggressive hacks at the plate. That helps him make a lot of hard contact from the right side, but it also leads to a fair amount of swing and miss and not a lot of walks. It's kind of a boom/bust profile, as he could produce 20-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages if it works out, but he also has more bust risk than the typical college draftee in the second round. He probably won't stick at shortstop, especially with Bobby Witt in the same draft class, so but he could be a solid second or third baseman.
- Michael Massey (2020 Age: 22): Massey was the Royals' fourth round pick out of Illinois in 2019, and while he lacks the ceiling of the Royals' earlier picks in that draft, he also has a higher floor. He was exceptionally steady over three years in Urbana-Champaign, then hit .272/.339/.399 with five home runs and a 28/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games at rookie level Burlington in his pro debut in 2019. Despite popping for five home runs and seven doubles in the Appalachian League this year, Massey is more of a contact hitter who relies on great bat to ball skills and strike zone management rather than trying to smoke the ball. He's also a grinder who plays the game hard, and that should make him a competent defender at shortstop and a good one at second base, adding to his profile as a future utility infielder. There's little question he'll be able to handle higher level pitching, so really the only thing between him and that utility future is proving he can continue to hit for some impact against that higher level pitching.
- Keep an eye on: Erick Mejia, Kevin Merrell, Clay Dungan, Herard Gonzalez, Wilmin Candelario
Outfield
- Khalil Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): Lee was a talented two-way player out of a Northern Virginia high school in 2016, but the Royals picked him up in the third round on the basis of his upside at the plate and so far, it looks like they've been right to do so. In 2019, he slashed .264/.363/.372 with eight home runs, 53 stolen bases, and a 154/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at AA Northwest Arkansas, numbers which become more impressive when you consider he only turned 21 halfway through the season. Despite standing just 5'10", he stands out for his physical tools, generating a lot of power from an explosive left handed swing, then deploying his speed well both on the bases and in center field. In fact, his 53 stolen bases in 2019 were enough to finish second in all of Minor League Baseball behind, ironically enough, his teammate Nick Heath. Plus, as you'd imagine for a kid who was almost drafted as a pitcher, he has one of the better arms in the organization. Contact has been a bit of an issue, but he's been young for the levels he's played at and the swing and miss hasn't been completely out of control, so I wouldn't be overly worried and I'd focus more on the fact that he was able to walk in 11.9% of his plate appearances in AA this year. Lee obviously still has work to do to get over the hump of upper-level pitching, but he won't turn 22 until June and he's already well on his way to doing so. Eventually, he could hit up to 20-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages, some stolen bases, and good defense, giving him one of the higher ceilings in the organization and a good shot to get there.
- Nick Heath (2020 Age: 26): There aren't many Kansas natives in the majors, with perhaps the most notable being Blake Treinen of Osage City, but Nick Heath of Junction City brings the Royals one of their own. Drafted in the 16th round as a senior sign out of Louisiana's Northwestern State in 2016, Heath has ran his way, quite literally, up the Royals' minor league rungs. In 2019, he slashed .255/.345/.387 with eight home runs and a 143/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha, and his 60 stolen bases meant he led all of the minors, even his teammate Khalil Lee. While his eight home runs were by far a career high after he began to lift the ball just a bit more, Heath isn't a power hitter and profiles more like Willie Mays Hayes from the movie Major League. He (obviously) has exceptional speed, and his quick swing from the left side helps him spray line drives around and get the most out of that speed, both on the bases and in the outfield. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder in the Jarrod Dyson mold, though he is a bit bigger and might hit for a touch more power.
- Brewer Hicklen (2020 Age: 24): A seventh round pick out of Alabama-Birmingham in 2017, Hicklen has hit everywhere he's gone, and in 2019 he slashed .263/.363/.427 with 14 home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 140/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at High A Wilmington, a notorious pitchers' park. He's got some pop in his right handed swing, deriving from his strong 6'2" frame, and he's one of the best runners in a system that has quite a few of them, having stolen 35 and 39 bases over the last two seasons. He does have some swing and miss concerns, and combined with good-not-great power and decent outfield defense, that probably relegates him to more of a fourth outfielder role, but his ability to make things happen on the baseball field makes him a relatively exciting prospect. As a fun fact, only five of his 14 home runs came at home, but all five of those came in one exceptional August series against the Salem Red Sox in which he went 9-13 with five homers, a double, seven RBI, a pair of walks, and nine runs scored in four games – Hicklen hit just .199/.326/.271 in all other home games.
- Kyle Isbel (2020 Age: 23): Isbel is a perfect case study for just how annoying lingering wrist issues can be. After being drafted in the third round out of UNLV in 2018, he slashed .326/.389/.504 in his pro debut, then was slashing .348/.423/.630 with a pair of home runs and an 8/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 13 games at High A Wilmington in 2019 before going down with a wrist injury. When he returned, he was far from the same player, hitting just .176/.236/.277 with three home runs and a 36/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 games for Wilmington the rest of the way. When healthy, Isbel stands out for his ability to simply hit the ball hard to all fields as well as anyone in the system. That gives him close to average power, and he seems like the kind of guy who could benefit from the juiced balls at AAA and the major league level and hit 15-20 a year up there. The bulk of his value, though, will come from the ability to drive lots of balls into the gaps and let his good speed do the rest.
- Michael Gigliotti (2020 Age: 24): Gigliotti, a fourth round pick out of Lipscomb University in 2017, has always been talented but has struggled to stay on the field. He slashed .320/.420/.456 in his pro debut but an ACL tear ended his 2018 season six games in, then missed a month of games in 2019 with undisclosed injuries. Still, when he was on the field in 2019, he slashed .282/.369/.368 with one home run, 36 stolen bases, and a 75/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games at Class A Lexington, High A Wilmington, and complex level rehab, and it seems like all he really needs is just consistent time on the field. He has wiry strength in his 6'1" frame, but to this point that hasn't manifested into any power in pro ball, which is fine because he makes a lot of hard line drive contact and manages the strike zone well for someone who keeps getting interrupted by injuries. His legs also showed no signs of injury lag after that ACL tear, as he stole 36 bases in just 87 games, and he covers a lot of ground in center field. He turns 24 at the start of the season and has yet to get any consistent playing time above Class A, so he's well behind in his development, but I still think a healthy Gigliotti could do some special things on the field.
- Erick Pena (2020 Age: 17): Pena hasn't played professionally yet, but after getting $4 million to sign out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, he immediately becomes one of the top outfield prospects in the system. Pena has a ton of wiry strength in his 6'3" frame, and his explosive left handed swing helps him generate a lot of power for a 16 year old kid, which he has gotten to consistently as an amateur. There's a lot going on in that swing, so the Royals will probably need to quiet down his hands a bit to help him catch up to pro pitching, but with his solid plate discipline and feel for the barrel, making those adjustments shouldn't be too much of an issue. He has a tremendous ceiling, but of course as a kid born in 2003, he also comes with a very low floor, so we'll just have to wait and see.
- Keep an eye on: Blake Perkins, Seuly Matias, John Rave, Darryl Collins
Starting Pitching
- Brady Singer (2020 Age: 23-24): Singer had a shot to go first overall out of Florida in 2018, but a combination of a slightly bumpy junior season and high bonus demands dropped him to 18th overall, where the Royals were ecstatic to land him. He was held out of action after a long college season, then skipped completely over rookie ball and Class A for his pro debut and first full season in 2019. Between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Singer had no problems with the jump in competition and posted a 2.85 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 138/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings. Standing 6'5", he's your prototypical pitching prospect with a low to mid 90's fastball, a short but sharp slider that misses lots of bats, and a decent changeup, all of which he commands pretty well most of the time. Singer isn't the most consistent pitcher, as he can loose feel for his stuff and his command can waver at times, but he's usually on top of his game and when he is, he looks like an ace. The Royals will hope a bit more pro refinement will help him stay there, and he has the potential to be a top of the rotation starter if he gets more consistent.
- Jackson Kowar (2020 Age: 23): Kowar was Singer's rotation-mate at Florida, and since being a compensation pick in 2018, he was Singer's rotation-mate at both High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas. In 2019, he had a 3.52 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 144/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between the two levels, showing more consistency but a bit less ceiling. Like Singer, Kowar stands 6'5" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, but while Singer's slider is his main weapon, Kowar gets outs with his downer changeup. He also adds a curveball that looked a bit soft in college, but he's added power while maintaining its shape in pro ball and it now projects as an average or slightly better pitch. With decent but consistent command, he projects favorably as a #3 starter in the near future.
- Daniel Lynch (2020 Age: 23): One pick after Kowar, the Royals grabbed UVA lefty Daniel Lynch, who took off in his junior season when he finally figured out who he was as a pitcher. That success has carried over into pro ball, and in 2019 he had a 2.99 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 96/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.1 innings between the complex level Arizona League, rookie level Burlington, and High A Wilmington, where he spent most of his time. He's a bit different from Singer and Kowar not only because he's left handed and didn't go to Florida, but because he finds success more by mixing pitches than by having one true out pitch. Like Singer and Kowar, he's tall at 6'6", and he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, then he adds three solid offspeeds in a slider, a curve, and a changeup, all of which can flash above average or plus at times. He also throws strikes with all of his offerings and mixes his pitches very well, and that high baseball IQ should help him tackle higher level hitters and perhaps major leaguers in 2020. Like Kowar, he projects as a mid-rotation starter.
- Kris Bubic (2020 Age: 22): Six picks after taking Lynch, the Royals dipped into the college starter pool yet again and grabbed Bubic out of Stanford in the competitive balance round. He's a 6'3" lefty that's more about deception than anything else, and in 2019 he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 185/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington, the 185 strikeouts leading all of Minor League Baseball. He only sits in the low 90's and adds a decent curveball that he's improved the consistency of, but the reason he racked up so many strikeouts was his excellent fading changeup that rivals Kowar's for the best in the system. He's usually pretty good about throwing strikes, and he makes his pitches play up with a funky delivery that has a lot of moving parts and makes it hard to pick up the baseball. He doesn't have the highest ceiling in the system, but his successful 2019 means he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or a #4 starter.
- Jonathan Bowlan (2020 Age: 23): Yep, another arm from the 2018 draft. After selecting Singer 18th overall, Kowar 33rd, Lynch 34th, and Bubic 40th, they hopped on Memphis righty Jonathan Bowlan in the second round, 58th overall, and he's yet another arm that exceeded expectations in 2019. This year, he had a 3.14 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 150/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 146 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington as both his slider and his strike throwing ability took a step forward. He's a really big guy at a listed 6'6" and 260 pounds, and that helps him get good angle on his pitches, most notably a low to mid 90's fastball and a good slider. He still needs to work on his changeup, but with the ability to throw consistent strikes, he's pretty close to a complete pitcher and is well on his way to being a #4 starter with the potential to be more.
- Austin Cox (2020 Age: 23): The Royals finally took a break after Bowlan, selecting college position players Kyle Isbel and Eric Cole with their next two picks, but they returned to the mound in the fifth round in 2018 and took Austin Cox out of Mercer. Like the five pitchers before him, he too had a successful first full season, posting a 2.76 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 129/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. Here, the difference was the command, as he struggled to repeat his delivery and find the strike zone consistently at Mercer, but the Royals smoothed him out and it did wonders for his command. That helps his four pitch arsenal, led by a low 90's fastball and a hard biting curveball, play up, which was a complete shift from how it played down in college. He's still probably a bit behind the other guys in terms of his overall projection, but the fifth round lefty has given himself a favorable outlook as a #4 or a #5 starter with more possible.
- Alec Marsh (2020 Age: 21-22): Unlike 2018, the Royals began their 2019 draft with back to back shortstops, but they spent their competitive balance pick on Arizona State starter Alec Marsh. Marsh went and had a very successful debut in the hitter-friendly Pioneer League, posting a 4.05 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 38/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings at rookie level Idaho Falls. He stands out more for his total package than for any one flashy attribute, as he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds two nice breaking balls and a changeup. His command was pretty good in college but he really locked down the strike zone in his pro debut in 2019, and if he can maintain that sharp command, he should be able to work his way up as a #4 starter. Given the success of the Royals' 2018 draft picks, I wouldn't be surprised if he broke out and ended up as a mid-rotation guy.
- Grant Gambrell (2020 Age: 22): I wasn't a big fan of the Royals taking Gambrell in the third round out of Oregon State in 2019, and his 6.67 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, and 28/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings at rookie level Idaho Falls in his pro debut don't help, but I wouldn't bet against any college pitchers in this system. Gambrell flashes great stuff, but he hasn't been even remotely consistent, so he'll be a project for the Royals. At his best, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a slider with good hard break, and a solid changeup, but he tends to lose feel for his pitches and his command comes and goes. He's got the ceiling to match most other arms in this system, but I'll be really interesting to see how if the Royals can get him to where he needs to be.
- Noah Murdock (2020 Age: 21): The Royals knew they were getting a project when they drafted Murdock in the seventh round out of UVA in 2019, as he posted a 6.30 ERA as a junior because his mechanics had a tendency of falling apart. The Royals were able to iron out similar issues for Austin Cox, and so far, it's looking up for Murdock as he posted a 2.17 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings for rookie level Burlington. He's a string bean at 6'8", but when he keeps his mechanics in line, he can get really good angle on his low 90's fastball and his inconsistent breaking ball, and that makes both pitches play up. Murdock has an extremely high ceiling for an seventh round college pick, but he's in the right system and could be well on his way a year from now so long as he stays healthy.
- Yohanse Morel (2020 Age: 19): The Royals have a few enigmatic young pitchers down in Class A in Carlos Hernandez, Evan Steele, Yefri Del Rosario, and Yohanse Morel, but as the youngest of the group, Morel will earn the writeup. Acquired from the Nationals in the Kelvin Herrera trade in 2018 just one game into his pro career, the Royals skipped Morel up to Class A Lexington in 2019 and he had a 6.02 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 57/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 52.1 innings. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but for an 18 year old with just 47 innings of pro experience coming into the season, it wasn't half bad. He has an easy delivery and an extremely quick arm that helps him hurl low to mid 90's fastballs, solid sliders, and often plus, fading changeups. He's still learning to reign all that in, as he can lose his arm slot and therefore the zone, and he also needs to learn to sequence his pitches better, but the stuff is there for him to be an impact starting pitcher down the road. He's young enough that he should have plenty of time to learn himself as a pitcher, and his upside is tremendous.
- Keep an eye on: Rito Lugo, Daniel Tillo, Carlos Hernandez, Evan Steele, Charlie Neuweiler, Yefri Del Rosario
Relief Pitching
- Josh Staumont (2020 Age: 26): It feels like prospect evaluators have been writing about Staumont's electric arm for all of eternity, though in reality he was drafted out of Azusa Pacific in the second round in 2015. He somehow managed to walk 201 batters in 248 innings between 2016 and 2017, so the Royals finally bumped him to the bullpen in 2018 and the results have been decent. In 2019, Staumont had a 3.16 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 74/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 51.1 innings at AAA Omaha, then posted a 3.72 ERA and a 15/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 major league innings. His fastball easily sits in the upper 90's and his hammer curveball can be equally devastating, and while he's improved his command over the last couple of seasons, he still struggles to locate those pitches where he wants them. The stuff is so good that he doesn't even need average command to succeed as a major league reliever, but he does need to at least get the ball in the general area of where the catcher is setting up or else he won't last very long. In 2020, I guess we'll see.
- Zach Haake (2020 Age: 23): Drafted in the sixth round in 2018 out of Kentucky, Haake had a good first full season like all of his counterparts in that draft, but it wasn't quite as good and combined with his profile, it probably makes him a reliever long term. Haake struggled mightily for the Wildcats in 2018 to the tune of an 8.47 ERA, but he turned it around really nicely in pro ball with a 1.76 ERA in his pro debut then in 2019 with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 94/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, mostly at Class A Lexington. Haake has great stuff, highlighted by a mid 90's fastball, a very inconsistent slider that can look great at times, and a changeup that has come along nicely in pro ball, though command and overall inconsistency have held him back. The Royals ironed him out and got him at least throwing strikes in the South Atlantic League, though there's still work to do there with the overall command and his secondary pitches are still very inconsistent. Given the depth of starting pitching talent in this system, he's probably a reliever long term, but the Royals will give him more opportunities to start and break through.
- Drew Parrish (2020 Age: 22): Parrish was an eighth rounder out of Florida State in 2019, and though he followed a dominant sophomore season with an up and down junior year in Tallahassee, he turned it around nicely in his pro debut with a 2.52 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings at rookie level Burlington. Parrish stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, adding a great tumbling changeup and a decent breaking ball. The lefty commands everything very well, but the stuff is probably just a bit light to start unless he takes a step forward with his velocity. Kris Bubic did have a similar profile coming out of Stanford a year prior, if with marginally better stuff and marginally less command, and he's pitched extremely well in this system, so there's certainly hope for Parrish as a starter. Still, I think his most likely destination is the bullpen, where he could really pitch off his changeup and perhaps add a tick of velocity to get up into the low 90's.
- Keep an eye on: Conner Greene, Tyler Zuber, Josh Dye, Austin Lambright, Dante Biasi
Showing posts with label MJ Melendez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MJ Melendez. Show all posts
Sunday, December 29, 2019
Friday, December 14, 2018
Reviewing the Kansas City Royals Farm System
Consecutive runs to the 2014 and 2015 World Series, including the big win the second time around, left the farm system completely barren, which is absolutely a tradeoff worth making. In fact, they have actually gotten the farm system back into respectable shape surprisingly quickly, and while at this point I would hesitate to call it anything better than that, "respectable," they deserve credit. The groups of pitchers and hitters are pretty different, with most hitters looking like the toolsy high ceiling/low floor types and most of the pitchers looking like safe bet, low ceiling types. After missing badly on four straight top ten picks in Christian Colon (4th overall, 2010), Bubba Starling (5th overall, 2011), Kyle Zimmer (5th overall, 2012), and Hunter Dozier (8th overall, 2013), in addition to Ashe Russell (21st overall in 2015), the Royals have righted the ship over the last two seasons with eight of their top ten prospects (per MLB.com) having been drafted in the top four rounds of the last two drafts.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, Rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars, Rookie level Burlington Royals, complex level AZL/DSL Royals
Pitchers from the 2018 Draft: RHP Brady Singer, RHP Jackson Kowar, LHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Kris Bubic, RHP Jonathan Bowlan, and LHP Austin Cox
The Royals farm system took a step forward when they added a few impact bats in the 2017 draft, but the farm system really took a huge step forward with the 2018 draft as they loaded up on college arms and all have either held their stock or moved forwards. We'll start with 22 year old first round pick (18th overall) Brady Singer, a 6'5" right hander who is the prototypical high upside college pitching prospect. He had a chance to go first overall but slid during a moderately inconsistent junior season at Florida, though he still finished with a 2.55 ERA and a 114/22 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly against tough SEC lineups. He throws a running low to mid 90's fastball with a great slider, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's pretty good and will allow him time to develop his changeup, which is coming along rapidly. Though his mechanics can get out of sync at times, he has a loose arm and is said to be a hard worker and an even tougher competitor, both of which bode well for his development into a potential #1 or #2 starter. He did not pitch in pro baseball this year, but should move quickly upon making his minor league debut in 2019. Right behind Singer in the draft was fellow Florida Gator and 22 year old Jackson Kowar, who the Royals took in the compensation round with the 33rd overall pick. They dropped him straight into Class A Lexington, where he dominated with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings, including the postseason. Like Singer, he's a 6'5" righty with a moving low to mid 90's fastball, but instead of having Singer's sharp slider, his go-to secondary pitch is his dropping changeup. His curveball is behind the other two pitches and will need to add power, and his command is a hair behind Singer's, but he looks like a good bet to move quickly and end up a #3 starter. With the very next pick, the Royals took UVA 22 year old Daniel Lynch 34th overall, and he's off to the best start of any of their draftees. The 6'6" lefty dominated in his pro debut, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 68/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings (playoffs included) between rookie level Burlington and Class A Lexington. He has no one standout pitch but mixes his deep arsenal well, and he really took off when he ignored the advice of the UVA pitching program and started throwing his fastball more, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with more velocity possible. I like Lynch as a prospect a lot and while he was the least well known of the first four arms the Royals took this year, he at least has a chance at being the best. Six picks later, with their competitive balance selection, the Royals took now-21 year old Kris Bubic 40th overall out of Stanford, and he got off to a moderately hot start at rookie level Idaho Falls. In 38 innings, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio, not throwing as many strikes as hoped but also racking up more strikeouts than expected. He's a 6'3" lefty known mostly for his excellent changeup, but with marginal low 90's velocity and only a decent curveball, he will have to rely on staying consistent with that command. I liked him less than some other sources before the draft, and it's the one pick the Royals made that I'm not too high on. He has the chance to be a #3 or #4 starter but more likely ends up in the bullpen, in my opinion. 22 year old Jonathan Bowlan, the Royals' second round pick (58th overall) out of Memphis, joined Bubic at Idaho Falls and posted a 6.94 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 23/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 innings. While he was hit hard, it was nice to see the huge 6'6" right hander throwing strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball and good slider, and the poor numbers may have just been a result of Royals pitching coaches easing him into pro ball by just having him throw strikes. He also has reliever risk but the Royals will try to refine his secondary pitches enough to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Cox was their fifth round pick out of Mercer, had a nice start at Burlington by posting a 3.78 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings. The 6'4" lefty is still fairly inconsistent with his stuff, but at his best he misses a ton of bats with a low 90's fastball and a hard curveball to go along with a slider and a changeup. The big thing for the Royals will be tightening that stuff and helping him use it more effectively.
Other Pitchers: RHP Josh Staumont, LHP Richard Lovelady, RHP Trevor Oaks, LHP Daniel Tillo, RHP Carlos Hernandez, and RHP Yefri Del Rosario
Most of the top pitching prospects in this system, especially with 18 year old Elvis Luciano being plucked out in the recent Rule 5 Draft, came from that 2018 draft but there are still a few interesting arms that were here beforehand. We'll start with 24 year old Josh Staumont, a flamethrowing 6'3" righty that posted a 3.51 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at AAA Omaha this year. He can hit 102 with that fastball and add movement with his two seamer in the upper 90's, and his curveball has stepped forward to the point where it is a swing and miss pitch in its own right. However, he can't throw strikes to save his life, and major leaguers can lay off 102 if it's not in the zone or hit it if they're ahead in the count and sitting on it. If he wants to stick as a major league reliever, throwing strikes will be important, but he has high upside if he does. 23 year old Richard Lovelady is a more conventional reliever, coming in with good control of a mid 90's fastball and a good slider. At Omaha in 2018, he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, often going multiple innings at a time. He is a safer bet than Staumont with a lower ceiling, and he's a lefty too. 25 year old Trevor Oaks came over from the Dodgers in a three-way trade last winter, then posted a solid 2018 at Omaha with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 70/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings. He throws in the low to mid 90's but his secondary stuff is just average, leading to low strikeout rates, though he's fairly good at throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground. He has a #5 starter projection with the chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2019. 22 year old Daniel Tillo is lower down in the system, having been drafted in the third round (90th overall) in 2017, The 6'5" lefty was just decent in 2018, posting a 4.76 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 100/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings between Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. His fastball/slider combination has worked so far for him as a starter in A ball, but with just an average changeup and command, he probably ends up in the bullpen where he could have a similar profile to Lovelady, with the added caveat that he is five inches taller. 21 year old Carlos Hernandez and 19 year old Yefri Del Rosario did everything asked of them in their full season debuts in 2018, both holding down rotation spots with consistency for much of the season. Hernandez posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, while Del Rosario, a former Braves prospect who was forcibly released due to sleazy contract details on the Braves' end, posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. Both are tall righties that throw reasonably hard, with Hernandez showing the better changeup and Del Rosario having the better slider. Of course, Del Rosario is two years younger, though Hernandez signed late and is progressing quicker than expected.
Lexington Hitters: 1B Nick Pratto, C M.J. Melendez, OF Seuly Matias, OF Brewer Hicklen, OF Michael Gigliotti, OF Kyle Isbel, and SS Jeison Guzman
For a farm system that didn't have a ton of impact talent prior to the 2018 draft, a lot of exciting hitters passed through Class A Lexington this year, many of whom came from a hitting-oriented 2017 draft. The best prospect in that group is 20 year old Nick Pratto, a first baseman who slashed .280/.343/.443 with 14 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 150/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games with Lexington. Having played the whole season at just 19 years old, he showed an advanced approach and good power, even if his strikeout rate was a bit high. He also surprisingly stole 22 bases in 27 tries, even with mediocre speed, as he has good instincts for the game all around. While the overall numbers weren't all that exciting for a first baseman, the 2017 first rounder (14th overall) has skills that will translate upwards and he should have no problem handling High A in 2019. 20 year old M.J. Melendez was right there with Pratto in that Lexington lineup all season long, slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs and a 143/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 111 games. While he has just as much power as Pratto, the 2017 second rounder (52nd overall) isn't as advanced at the plate. That is okay, because he is a good defensive catcher that should be able to stick back there, meaning as long as he keeps hitting for power and getting on base at a reasonable rate, his glove will get him to the majors as at least a back-up catcher. If he can improve his plate discipline, he could be a starting MLB catcher down the road. 20 year old Seuly Matias was yet another exciting hitter in the Lexington lineup, slashing .231/.303/.550 with 31 home runs and a 131/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games. His bat is even less developed than that of Melendez, but he has the best raw power in the system. He really needs to improve that plate discipline, as higher level pitching will eat him up, but if he can cut down on that strikeout rate he has the highest ceiling among this trio of hitters, at least with his bat. 22 year old Brewer Hicklen, a seventh rounder from that same 2017 draft that produced Pratto and Melendez, struggled at High A Wilmington (.211/.263/.310) before being demoted to Lexington, where he was much better (.307/.378/.552). Overall, he slashed .289/.357/.507 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 124/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, showing both power and speed, but the plate discipline needs a lot of work for someone who was drafted out of college and is older compared to the Class A competition (Pratto and Melendez were drafted out of high school). Because his production came against younger competition, Hicklen is most likely a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but his power and speed could help him contend for a starting spot down the road. Yet another name from that 2017 draft class is 22 year old Michael Gigliotti, a fourth rounder who only made it into six games (and slashed .235/.435/.471) due to an ACL tear. After a down junior season at Lipscomb University in Nashville, he has shown surprisingly advanced plate discipline in the minors, drawing a ton of walks while still spraying line drives all over the field and running the bases well. Once healthy in 2019, he could move quickly and he has a better chance at starting than Hicklen. 21 year old Kyle Isbel was a 2018 third rounder (94th overall), the Royals' first non-college pitcher pick after taking five before him, got to Lexington quickly. Over 64 games between rookie level Idaho Falls and Lexington, he slashed .326/.389/.504 with seven home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 60/26 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a power hitting corner outfielder who I think could be an impact bat in Kansas City relatively soon, though he'll have to watch his strikeouts. Lastly, 20 year old Jeison Guzman split the season between rookie level Burlington and Lexington, slashing .254/.327/.356 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games. His bat is a bit light but he's a good fielding shortstop, which buys the bat time, and he does have a fairly advanced approach for his age. He looks like a utility infielder for now.
Higher Level Hitters: OF Khalil Lee, SS Nicky Lopez, 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B Emmanuel Rivera, and OF Blake Perkins
Most of the system's most hitting exciting talent was in Lexington this year, with the majority of the non-Lexington group looking mostly like future role players. The exception is 20 year old Khalil Lee, an outfielder who was drafted in the third round (103rd overall) out of a northern Virginia high school in 2016. In 100 games between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Lee slashed .263/.382/.390 with six home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, showing advanced plate discipline for his age and the levels he was playing at. Skinny and just 5'10", his power is sporadic but there is definitely some thunder in the bat when he gets into one. He's fast, too, and his broad set of tools gives him the highest high ceiling among position players in the system if he can tap into that power a bit more, considering he has improved his plate discipline as he has been promoted. He doesn't turn 21 until June, giving him plenty of time to continue to develop. 23 year old Nicky Lopez is a smooth fielding shortstop who broke out with the bat in 2018, slashing .308/.382/.417 with nine home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha. His exceptional control of the strike zone means he will have no trouble hitting at the major league level, with the question being just how much. Right now, he looks like more of a utility infielder than a future regular, but with the Royals' infield situation in a bit of a transition, he has a chance to break through and start. There's not much power, so if he does start at points in 2019 and 2020, I think his long term role is indeed as a utility infielder. 24 year old Kelvin Gutierrez and 22 year old Emmanuel Rivera come with similar profiles, both being third basemen in similar stages of development. Gutierrez, who came over from Washington in the Kelvin Herrera trade, slashed .275/.329/.400 with 11 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 108/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA, while Rivera slashed .274/.326/.416 with six home runs and a 65/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 games, mostly at High A Wilmington. Both are average hitters across the board, though Rivera has a better feel for the strike zone for his age. Meanwhile, both are great defenders at third base, with Gutierrez generally being considered the better of the two there, and the Royals will hope one of them takes a step forward with the bat so they can compete for a third base job. Lastly, 22 year old Blake Perkins came over with Gutierrez in the Herrera trade, showing well in some areas and lacking in others. At High A in 2018, he slashed .237/.362/.305 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 134/92 strikeout to walk ratio, showing exceptional patience at the plate to go along with great speed but completely lacking in power. There is hope that he can add some power and hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors, but he isn't there yet and the clock is ticking. With no additional power development, he's a fifth outfielder that can draw a walk, steal a base, and hold down center field if asked.
Affiliates: AAA Omaha Storm Chasers, AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, High A Wilmington Blue Rocks, Class A Lexington Legends, Rookie level Idaho Falls Chukars, Rookie level Burlington Royals, complex level AZL/DSL Royals
Pitchers from the 2018 Draft: RHP Brady Singer, RHP Jackson Kowar, LHP Daniel Lynch, LHP Kris Bubic, RHP Jonathan Bowlan, and LHP Austin Cox
The Royals farm system took a step forward when they added a few impact bats in the 2017 draft, but the farm system really took a huge step forward with the 2018 draft as they loaded up on college arms and all have either held their stock or moved forwards. We'll start with 22 year old first round pick (18th overall) Brady Singer, a 6'5" right hander who is the prototypical high upside college pitching prospect. He had a chance to go first overall but slid during a moderately inconsistent junior season at Florida, though he still finished with a 2.55 ERA and a 114/22 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly against tough SEC lineups. He throws a running low to mid 90's fastball with a great slider, and while his command isn't pinpoint, it's pretty good and will allow him time to develop his changeup, which is coming along rapidly. Though his mechanics can get out of sync at times, he has a loose arm and is said to be a hard worker and an even tougher competitor, both of which bode well for his development into a potential #1 or #2 starter. He did not pitch in pro baseball this year, but should move quickly upon making his minor league debut in 2019. Right behind Singer in the draft was fellow Florida Gator and 22 year old Jackson Kowar, who the Royals took in the compensation round with the 33rd overall pick. They dropped him straight into Class A Lexington, where he dominated with a 2.48 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 32/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.1 innings, including the postseason. Like Singer, he's a 6'5" righty with a moving low to mid 90's fastball, but instead of having Singer's sharp slider, his go-to secondary pitch is his dropping changeup. His curveball is behind the other two pitches and will need to add power, and his command is a hair behind Singer's, but he looks like a good bet to move quickly and end up a #3 starter. With the very next pick, the Royals took UVA 22 year old Daniel Lynch 34th overall, and he's off to the best start of any of their draftees. The 6'6" lefty dominated in his pro debut, posting a 1.37 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 68/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings (playoffs included) between rookie level Burlington and Class A Lexington. He has no one standout pitch but mixes his deep arsenal well, and he really took off when he ignored the advice of the UVA pitching program and started throwing his fastball more, now sitting in the low to mid 90's with more velocity possible. I like Lynch as a prospect a lot and while he was the least well known of the first four arms the Royals took this year, he at least has a chance at being the best. Six picks later, with their competitive balance selection, the Royals took now-21 year old Kris Bubic 40th overall out of Stanford, and he got off to a moderately hot start at rookie level Idaho Falls. In 38 innings, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 53/19 strikeout to walk ratio, not throwing as many strikes as hoped but also racking up more strikeouts than expected. He's a 6'3" lefty known mostly for his excellent changeup, but with marginal low 90's velocity and only a decent curveball, he will have to rely on staying consistent with that command. I liked him less than some other sources before the draft, and it's the one pick the Royals made that I'm not too high on. He has the chance to be a #3 or #4 starter but more likely ends up in the bullpen, in my opinion. 22 year old Jonathan Bowlan, the Royals' second round pick (58th overall) out of Memphis, joined Bubic at Idaho Falls and posted a 6.94 ERA, a 1.71 WHIP, and a 23/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 innings. While he was hit hard, it was nice to see the huge 6'6" right hander throwing strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball and good slider, and the poor numbers may have just been a result of Royals pitching coaches easing him into pro ball by just having him throw strikes. He also has reliever risk but the Royals will try to refine his secondary pitches enough to keep him in the rotation. Lastly, 21 year old Austin Cox was their fifth round pick out of Mercer, had a nice start at Burlington by posting a 3.78 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 51/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.1 innings. The 6'4" lefty is still fairly inconsistent with his stuff, but at his best he misses a ton of bats with a low 90's fastball and a hard curveball to go along with a slider and a changeup. The big thing for the Royals will be tightening that stuff and helping him use it more effectively.
Other Pitchers: RHP Josh Staumont, LHP Richard Lovelady, RHP Trevor Oaks, LHP Daniel Tillo, RHP Carlos Hernandez, and RHP Yefri Del Rosario
Most of the top pitching prospects in this system, especially with 18 year old Elvis Luciano being plucked out in the recent Rule 5 Draft, came from that 2018 draft but there are still a few interesting arms that were here beforehand. We'll start with 24 year old Josh Staumont, a flamethrowing 6'3" righty that posted a 3.51 ERA, a 1.49 WHIP, and a 103/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings at AAA Omaha this year. He can hit 102 with that fastball and add movement with his two seamer in the upper 90's, and his curveball has stepped forward to the point where it is a swing and miss pitch in its own right. However, he can't throw strikes to save his life, and major leaguers can lay off 102 if it's not in the zone or hit it if they're ahead in the count and sitting on it. If he wants to stick as a major league reliever, throwing strikes will be important, but he has high upside if he does. 23 year old Richard Lovelady is a more conventional reliever, coming in with good control of a mid 90's fastball and a good slider. At Omaha in 2018, he posted a 2.47 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 71/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 73 innings, often going multiple innings at a time. He is a safer bet than Staumont with a lower ceiling, and he's a lefty too. 25 year old Trevor Oaks came over from the Dodgers in a three-way trade last winter, then posted a solid 2018 at Omaha with a 3.23 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 70/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 128.1 innings. He throws in the low to mid 90's but his secondary stuff is just average, leading to low strikeout rates, though he's fairly good at throwing strikes and keeping the ball on the ground. He has a #5 starter projection with the chance to make the Opening Day roster in 2019. 22 year old Daniel Tillo is lower down in the system, having been drafted in the third round (90th overall) in 2017, The 6'5" lefty was just decent in 2018, posting a 4.76 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 100/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 134.1 innings between Class A Lexington and High A Wilmington. His fastball/slider combination has worked so far for him as a starter in A ball, but with just an average changeup and command, he probably ends up in the bullpen where he could have a similar profile to Lovelady, with the added caveat that he is five inches taller. 21 year old Carlos Hernandez and 19 year old Yefri Del Rosario did everything asked of them in their full season debuts in 2018, both holding down rotation spots with consistency for much of the season. Hernandez posted a 3.29 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 82/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.1 innings, while Del Rosario, a former Braves prospect who was forcibly released due to sleazy contract details on the Braves' end, posted a 3.19 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 72/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 79 innings. Both are tall righties that throw reasonably hard, with Hernandez showing the better changeup and Del Rosario having the better slider. Of course, Del Rosario is two years younger, though Hernandez signed late and is progressing quicker than expected.
Lexington Hitters: 1B Nick Pratto, C M.J. Melendez, OF Seuly Matias, OF Brewer Hicklen, OF Michael Gigliotti, OF Kyle Isbel, and SS Jeison Guzman
For a farm system that didn't have a ton of impact talent prior to the 2018 draft, a lot of exciting hitters passed through Class A Lexington this year, many of whom came from a hitting-oriented 2017 draft. The best prospect in that group is 20 year old Nick Pratto, a first baseman who slashed .280/.343/.443 with 14 home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 150/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games with Lexington. Having played the whole season at just 19 years old, he showed an advanced approach and good power, even if his strikeout rate was a bit high. He also surprisingly stole 22 bases in 27 tries, even with mediocre speed, as he has good instincts for the game all around. While the overall numbers weren't all that exciting for a first baseman, the 2017 first rounder (14th overall) has skills that will translate upwards and he should have no problem handling High A in 2019. 20 year old M.J. Melendez was right there with Pratto in that Lexington lineup all season long, slashing .251/.322/.492 with 19 home runs and a 143/43 strikeout to walk ratio in 111 games. While he has just as much power as Pratto, the 2017 second rounder (52nd overall) isn't as advanced at the plate. That is okay, because he is a good defensive catcher that should be able to stick back there, meaning as long as he keeps hitting for power and getting on base at a reasonable rate, his glove will get him to the majors as at least a back-up catcher. If he can improve his plate discipline, he could be a starting MLB catcher down the road. 20 year old Seuly Matias was yet another exciting hitter in the Lexington lineup, slashing .231/.303/.550 with 31 home runs and a 131/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games. His bat is even less developed than that of Melendez, but he has the best raw power in the system. He really needs to improve that plate discipline, as higher level pitching will eat him up, but if he can cut down on that strikeout rate he has the highest ceiling among this trio of hitters, at least with his bat. 22 year old Brewer Hicklen, a seventh rounder from that same 2017 draft that produced Pratto and Melendez, struggled at High A Wilmington (.211/.263/.310) before being demoted to Lexington, where he was much better (.307/.378/.552). Overall, he slashed .289/.357/.507 with 18 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 124/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games, showing both power and speed, but the plate discipline needs a lot of work for someone who was drafted out of college and is older compared to the Class A competition (Pratto and Melendez were drafted out of high school). Because his production came against younger competition, Hicklen is most likely a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but his power and speed could help him contend for a starting spot down the road. Yet another name from that 2017 draft class is 22 year old Michael Gigliotti, a fourth rounder who only made it into six games (and slashed .235/.435/.471) due to an ACL tear. After a down junior season at Lipscomb University in Nashville, he has shown surprisingly advanced plate discipline in the minors, drawing a ton of walks while still spraying line drives all over the field and running the bases well. Once healthy in 2019, he could move quickly and he has a better chance at starting than Hicklen. 21 year old Kyle Isbel was a 2018 third rounder (94th overall), the Royals' first non-college pitcher pick after taking five before him, got to Lexington quickly. Over 64 games between rookie level Idaho Falls and Lexington, he slashed .326/.389/.504 with seven home runs, 24 stolen bases, and a 60/26 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a power hitting corner outfielder who I think could be an impact bat in Kansas City relatively soon, though he'll have to watch his strikeouts. Lastly, 20 year old Jeison Guzman split the season between rookie level Burlington and Lexington, slashing .254/.327/.356 with four home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games. His bat is a bit light but he's a good fielding shortstop, which buys the bat time, and he does have a fairly advanced approach for his age. He looks like a utility infielder for now.
Higher Level Hitters: OF Khalil Lee, SS Nicky Lopez, 3B Kelvin Gutierrez, 3B Emmanuel Rivera, and OF Blake Perkins
Most of the system's most hitting exciting talent was in Lexington this year, with the majority of the non-Lexington group looking mostly like future role players. The exception is 20 year old Khalil Lee, an outfielder who was drafted in the third round (103rd overall) out of a northern Virginia high school in 2016. In 100 games between High A Wilmington and AA Northwest Arkansas, Lee slashed .263/.382/.390 with six home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 103/59 strikeout to walk ratio, showing advanced plate discipline for his age and the levels he was playing at. Skinny and just 5'10", his power is sporadic but there is definitely some thunder in the bat when he gets into one. He's fast, too, and his broad set of tools gives him the highest high ceiling among position players in the system if he can tap into that power a bit more, considering he has improved his plate discipline as he has been promoted. He doesn't turn 21 until June, giving him plenty of time to continue to develop. 23 year old Nicky Lopez is a smooth fielding shortstop who broke out with the bat in 2018, slashing .308/.382/.417 with nine home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 52/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games between Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha. His exceptional control of the strike zone means he will have no trouble hitting at the major league level, with the question being just how much. Right now, he looks like more of a utility infielder than a future regular, but with the Royals' infield situation in a bit of a transition, he has a chance to break through and start. There's not much power, so if he does start at points in 2019 and 2020, I think his long term role is indeed as a utility infielder. 24 year old Kelvin Gutierrez and 22 year old Emmanuel Rivera come with similar profiles, both being third basemen in similar stages of development. Gutierrez, who came over from Washington in the Kelvin Herrera trade, slashed .275/.329/.400 with 11 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 108/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA, while Rivera slashed .274/.326/.416 with six home runs and a 65/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 106 games, mostly at High A Wilmington. Both are average hitters across the board, though Rivera has a better feel for the strike zone for his age. Meanwhile, both are great defenders at third base, with Gutierrez generally being considered the better of the two there, and the Royals will hope one of them takes a step forward with the bat so they can compete for a third base job. Lastly, 22 year old Blake Perkins came over with Gutierrez in the Herrera trade, showing well in some areas and lacking in others. At High A in 2018, he slashed .237/.362/.305 with three home runs, 29 stolen bases, and a 134/92 strikeout to walk ratio, showing exceptional patience at the plate to go along with great speed but completely lacking in power. There is hope that he can add some power and hit upwards of ten home runs per season in the majors, but he isn't there yet and the clock is ticking. With no additional power development, he's a fifth outfielder that can draw a walk, steal a base, and hold down center field if asked.
Friday, June 23, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Kansas City Royals
First 5 rounds: Nick Pratto (1-14), M.J. Melendez (2-52), Evan Steele (CBB-73), Daniel Tillo (3-90), Michael Gigliotti (4-120), Charlie Neuweiler (5-150).
Also notable: Brewer Hicklen (7-210), Sal Biasi (11-330), Andrew Beckwith (32-960), Reed Rohlman (35-1050).
The Royals threw caution to the wind and went all upside in the early part of this draft, waiting until the fourth round (their fifth pick) to select a player from a four-year university, and even he (Michael Gigliotti) is much more of an upside play than a safety pick. Each of their first six picks has the potential to be a star, and any of them could fail in the low minors. It's an interesting strategy, but I do really like the players they got here. Let's take a look.
Side note: only two players in this draft were taken exactly where I ranked them: Nick Pratto and M.J. Melendez. Look up, and you'll see why that's ironic.
1-14: 1B Nick Pratto (my rank: 14)
Nick Pratto has a high floor for a high schooler, showing a very advanced approach at the plate to go along with emerging power. He has a clean swing with a tendency to barrel the ball up, though his power may have a hard time playing in Kauffman Stadium. He is similar to current Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, though he will have much better plate discipline, and could be closer to a Joey Votto-type when all is said and done. He's a solid defender at first base, but the bat is his calling card. Pratto has signed for $3.45 million, which is $277,600 under slot.
2-52: C M.J. Melendez (my rank: 52)
The Royals seemed to be looking at my rankings, selecting a second straight player right where I ranked him. Melendez is a high upside, high risk high school catcher from the same Westminster Christian School that produced Alex Rodriguez. Melendez, whose skinny build is uncommon for a catcher, is a solid defender with a great arm and good agility behind the plate. As a hitter, it's easy to dream on his power potential with his long arms and rotational swing, but the swing will need to be cleaned up significantly if he wants to hit at higher levels. It's long to the ball, short through it, and since he's the son of FIU head coach Mervyl Melendez, you'd expect him to be a bit less raw at the plate. Still, as a catcher with high potential with the bat, he's a solid pick in the second round. Melendez signed for just under $2.1 million, which is $801,800 over slot.
CBB-73: LHP Evan Steele (my rank: 103)
Evan Steele has a great baseball name, and he was the second of what would be eleven Chipola JC players drafted after slugging teammate Reynaldo Rivera (#57 to Tigers). He's a projectable 6'5" lefty, so that will catch teams' interest immediately, and he already throws in the low 90's with a slider that could be plus in time. Adding a good changeup, he's a classic mid to back end starter with the potential for more, and he'll play well in relief if the Royals go that route. He is still unsigned.
3-90: LHP Daniel Tillo (my rank: 66)
17 picks after taking Steele, the Royals drafted another big JuCo lefty, Iowa Western's Daniel Tillo. He's a riskier pick than Steele, but he already throws in the low to mid 90's despite being fairly new to pitching. As you would expect from someone who just began pitching, his sinking fastball is ahead of his other pitches, but his secondaries are coming along nicely and if he can continue to build on them, he has mid-rotation ceiling. He did run into durability issues this spring, but because of the low mileage on his arm, I don't expect that to be a problem going forward. Tillo signed for $557,500, which is $49,800 under slot.
4-120: CF Michael Gigliotti (my rank: 88)
Coming into the season, Gigliotti was seen as a first round pick. Lipscomb University's center fielder had slashed .301/.407/.461 with three home runs and 15 stolen bases as a sophomore, then cranked it up a notch by slashing .310/.404/.426 with two home runs over 42 games on the Cape, earning comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury. However, he struggled mightily at the outset of his junior season as he looked "lost" at the plate, and it didn't help that pitchers were simply refusing to throw him strikes. He did heat up at the end of the season and finished with a .287/.451/.411 line, three home runs, and 31 stolen bases, walking in 18.9% of his plate appearances. I was less confident in him than most at the beginning of the season when I saw him as a future fourth outfielder due to a lack of power projection, but the slump was less of an issue for me than for others because I think it closely paralleled Bryce Harper's 2016 slump, which also stemmed from a lack of strikes to hit. Harper bounced back in 2017, and Gigliotti bounced back (somewhat) at the end of the season. I still see him as a fourth outfielder though due to continued questions about his power. He did sign for $397,500, which is $44,200 under slot. In his first game for Rookie level Burlington, he blasted two home runs.
Others: Fifth rounder Charlie Neuweiler was a teammate of Indians second rounder Quentin Holmes at McClancy High School in Queens, and he throws right around 90 with a solid curveball, projecting as a back-end starter. 7th rounder Brewer Hicklen has another good baseball name, coming from the University of Alabama-Birmingham with a .328/.422/.586 slash line, eight home runs, and 17 stolen bases this year. He's an excellent athlete, also starring as a wide receiver on the UAB football team, and he brings that football mentality to the baseball diamond. His 23.2% strikeout rate was a bit high this year, but he has high upside. Sensing a theme? 11th rounder Sal Biasi comes from Penn State, where he put up a solid, three year career by going 10-13 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, striking out 185 batters over 174 innings. He's an undersized, stocky right hander with a low 90's fastball and mediocre offspeeds, so he's likely a reliever going forward. The last two players I'll discuss both have prominent names in the college baseball community. 32nd rounder Andrew Beckwith was a huge part of Coastal Carolina's run to the NCAA Championship in 2016, finishing the season 14-1 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but he returned for his senior season and wasn't quite the same. This year, he went 8-2 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP and will try to cut it as a reliever in pro ball. 35th rounder Reed Rohlman, out of Clemson, has been a force in the middle of the Tigers lineup for three years, and he had his best year yet in 2017, slashing .361/.448/.542 with six home runs as a redshirt junior. He's physically maxed-out at this point, but as a recognizable face from the ACC, he'll be fun to watch in pro ball.
Also notable: Brewer Hicklen (7-210), Sal Biasi (11-330), Andrew Beckwith (32-960), Reed Rohlman (35-1050).
The Royals threw caution to the wind and went all upside in the early part of this draft, waiting until the fourth round (their fifth pick) to select a player from a four-year university, and even he (Michael Gigliotti) is much more of an upside play than a safety pick. Each of their first six picks has the potential to be a star, and any of them could fail in the low minors. It's an interesting strategy, but I do really like the players they got here. Let's take a look.
Side note: only two players in this draft were taken exactly where I ranked them: Nick Pratto and M.J. Melendez. Look up, and you'll see why that's ironic.
1-14: 1B Nick Pratto (my rank: 14)
Nick Pratto has a high floor for a high schooler, showing a very advanced approach at the plate to go along with emerging power. He has a clean swing with a tendency to barrel the ball up, though his power may have a hard time playing in Kauffman Stadium. He is similar to current Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer, though he will have much better plate discipline, and could be closer to a Joey Votto-type when all is said and done. He's a solid defender at first base, but the bat is his calling card. Pratto has signed for $3.45 million, which is $277,600 under slot.
2-52: C M.J. Melendez (my rank: 52)
The Royals seemed to be looking at my rankings, selecting a second straight player right where I ranked him. Melendez is a high upside, high risk high school catcher from the same Westminster Christian School that produced Alex Rodriguez. Melendez, whose skinny build is uncommon for a catcher, is a solid defender with a great arm and good agility behind the plate. As a hitter, it's easy to dream on his power potential with his long arms and rotational swing, but the swing will need to be cleaned up significantly if he wants to hit at higher levels. It's long to the ball, short through it, and since he's the son of FIU head coach Mervyl Melendez, you'd expect him to be a bit less raw at the plate. Still, as a catcher with high potential with the bat, he's a solid pick in the second round. Melendez signed for just under $2.1 million, which is $801,800 over slot.
CBB-73: LHP Evan Steele (my rank: 103)
Evan Steele has a great baseball name, and he was the second of what would be eleven Chipola JC players drafted after slugging teammate Reynaldo Rivera (#57 to Tigers). He's a projectable 6'5" lefty, so that will catch teams' interest immediately, and he already throws in the low 90's with a slider that could be plus in time. Adding a good changeup, he's a classic mid to back end starter with the potential for more, and he'll play well in relief if the Royals go that route. He is still unsigned.
3-90: LHP Daniel Tillo (my rank: 66)
17 picks after taking Steele, the Royals drafted another big JuCo lefty, Iowa Western's Daniel Tillo. He's a riskier pick than Steele, but he already throws in the low to mid 90's despite being fairly new to pitching. As you would expect from someone who just began pitching, his sinking fastball is ahead of his other pitches, but his secondaries are coming along nicely and if he can continue to build on them, he has mid-rotation ceiling. He did run into durability issues this spring, but because of the low mileage on his arm, I don't expect that to be a problem going forward. Tillo signed for $557,500, which is $49,800 under slot.
4-120: CF Michael Gigliotti (my rank: 88)
Coming into the season, Gigliotti was seen as a first round pick. Lipscomb University's center fielder had slashed .301/.407/.461 with three home runs and 15 stolen bases as a sophomore, then cranked it up a notch by slashing .310/.404/.426 with two home runs over 42 games on the Cape, earning comparisons to Jacoby Ellsbury. However, he struggled mightily at the outset of his junior season as he looked "lost" at the plate, and it didn't help that pitchers were simply refusing to throw him strikes. He did heat up at the end of the season and finished with a .287/.451/.411 line, three home runs, and 31 stolen bases, walking in 18.9% of his plate appearances. I was less confident in him than most at the beginning of the season when I saw him as a future fourth outfielder due to a lack of power projection, but the slump was less of an issue for me than for others because I think it closely paralleled Bryce Harper's 2016 slump, which also stemmed from a lack of strikes to hit. Harper bounced back in 2017, and Gigliotti bounced back (somewhat) at the end of the season. I still see him as a fourth outfielder though due to continued questions about his power. He did sign for $397,500, which is $44,200 under slot. In his first game for Rookie level Burlington, he blasted two home runs.
Others: Fifth rounder Charlie Neuweiler was a teammate of Indians second rounder Quentin Holmes at McClancy High School in Queens, and he throws right around 90 with a solid curveball, projecting as a back-end starter. 7th rounder Brewer Hicklen has another good baseball name, coming from the University of Alabama-Birmingham with a .328/.422/.586 slash line, eight home runs, and 17 stolen bases this year. He's an excellent athlete, also starring as a wide receiver on the UAB football team, and he brings that football mentality to the baseball diamond. His 23.2% strikeout rate was a bit high this year, but he has high upside. Sensing a theme? 11th rounder Sal Biasi comes from Penn State, where he put up a solid, three year career by going 10-13 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP, striking out 185 batters over 174 innings. He's an undersized, stocky right hander with a low 90's fastball and mediocre offspeeds, so he's likely a reliever going forward. The last two players I'll discuss both have prominent names in the college baseball community. 32nd rounder Andrew Beckwith was a huge part of Coastal Carolina's run to the NCAA Championship in 2016, finishing the season 14-1 with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP, but he returned for his senior season and wasn't quite the same. This year, he went 8-2 with a 4.34 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP and will try to cut it as a reliever in pro ball. 35th rounder Reed Rohlman, out of Clemson, has been a force in the middle of the Tigers lineup for three years, and he had his best year yet in 2017, slashing .361/.448/.542 with six home runs as a redshirt junior. He's physically maxed-out at this point, but as a recognizable face from the ACC, he'll be fun to watch in pro ball.
Monday, June 12, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Florida Prep Talent
First Tier: Mark Vientos, Jeter Downs, M.J. Melendez
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson
If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.
Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.
Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.
Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.
Second Tier: Chris Seise, Brady McConnell, Jake Eder
Third Tier: Joe Perez, James Marinan, C.J. Van Eyk, Shane Drohan
Others: Hunter Ruth, Sam McMillan, Tommy Mace, Zach Jackson
If the SEC is the epitome of college baseball, then Florida is where you go for the best high school talent. Miami-area schools like American Heritage (Vientos), Westminster Christian (Melendez), and Archbishop McCarthy (Perez) dominate the high school scene year in and year out, and many of the game's top players were drafted out of high school in Florida. That includes Alex Rodriguez (Westminster Christian), Chipper Jones (Bolles), Manny Machado (Brito Miami), Jose Fernandez (Alonso), Zack Greinke (Apopka), Andrew McCutchen (Fort Meade), Ian Desmond (Sarasota), Gio Gonzalez (Monsignor Pace), and Eric Hosmer (American Heritage), just to name a few.
Tier I (Vientos, Downs, Melendez)
Mark Vientos of Eric Hosmer's alma mater, American Heritage HS, is one of the most polarizing prospects in the draft. The youngest player to even be considered for my top 100 (he turns 18 in December), Vientos has a big bat from the right side and the ability to play a solid third base, earning Manny Machado-lite comparisons. He's been up and down with the bat this spring, but a team banking on his youth will compare this to what most players do during their junior seasons in high school, and he could come off the board in the first round or outside the top 50. Jeter Downs, meanwhile, is universally loved, and not just because he has the best baseball name in this entire draft class (sorry, D'Mond LaFond). Playing at Gio Gonzalez's former school, Pace HS, he has endeared himself to scouts with his scrappy style of play and improving bat. The 5'11" infielder could be similar to Dustin Pedroia, and he has pushed himself into late first round/supplemental round conversations with his strong spring. We went over M.J. Melendez of Westminster Christian, the school that produced Alex Rodriguez, at length in the catchers' discussion, but he's a power bat with swing and miss concerns that should be able to stay behind home plate with his strong defense.
Tier II (Seise, McConnell, Eder)
While Tier I is made up of players from south Florida, Tier II moves up north a bit. Chris Seise comes from the Orlando area, and he and Space Coast area star Brady McConnell are easy to compare to each other. While Seise has improved his stock significantly this spring, McConnell came in as a possible first rounder, though his up and down season has put him about on par with Seise. Seise has the more conventional swing, while McConnell is similar to Arizona first baseman J.J. Matijevic in that he contracts and unloads on the ball to generate power. This has led to swing and miss from McConnell, and I get a little nervous that he won't be able to adjust to pro ball because of it. Both are solid shortstops, and while neither is likely to be forced to second or third base, McConnell is an even stronger bet to stay on shortstop. Lastly, we go back back down to south Florida for Jake Eder. A 6'4" lefty committed to Vanderbilt, Eder's ceiling is as high as any on this list, but he comes with a lot of risk. He sits in the low 90's now, but he struggles to repeat his mechanics even from pitch to pitch and will need significant coaching.
Tier III (Perez, Marinan, Van Eyk, Drohan)
Joe Perez, of national powerhouse Archbishop McCarthy, only came to pitching recently and is understandably raw. Combine that with the fact that he's just three days older than his crosstown rival, Mark Vientos, and he gets a lot of benefits of the doubt. His fastball can already run into the mid to upper 90's, and his cutter/slider is coming alone nicely as well. He has a high ceiling as a #2 starter or closer, but he went down with Tommy John surgery at the end of the spring and carries a huge amount of risk. He also may be a tough sign, as he has a very strong commitment to Miami. James Marinan is a similar pitcher to Perez in that he lives on his fastball, which out of nowhere is suddenly in the mid 90's, and he has a classic pitcher's frame at 6'5". Also like Perez, he is committed to Miami, and his success will ride on his ability to develop his secondaries. C.J. Van Eyk, one of only two Tampa-area players on this list (the other being Tommy Mace in the "others" section), has the stuff and overall pitchability to get top 50 consideration, but his injury uncertainty drops him out of the top 100 for most. The 6'2" righty throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's, controls it well enough, and has arguably the best curveball in the state. However, he was shut down halfway through the spring and has not returned, raising medical question marks. Lastly, Shane Drohan is the only pitcher who can challenge Van Eyk's curveball, but unlike Van Eyk, the lefty Drohan's velocity sits more in the upper 80's. With a similar 6'2" frame to Van Eyk, he should hope to add velocity, but overall his combination of floor and ceiling is pretty mediocre.
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Catchers
First Tier: Nobody
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
Second Tier: Luis Campusano, M.J. Melendez, Riley Adams, Evan Skoug
Third Tier: Connor Wong, Matt Whatley, Daulton Varsho, Blake Hunt, Joey Morgan
Others: Sam McMillan, Zach Jackson, Chris Williams
Catching is typically difficult to come by at the college level. This year in particular, there's almost none of it. None likely even have a chance of going in the first round, unless they sign an underslot, and it might be the biggest weakness of the draft class. That said, here are the best of what we have. Some of them have been profiled in other demographics, and will be profiled again.
Tier I
As I said, there are no top tier catchers. Each one comes with their own significant risks.
Tier II (Campusano, Melendez, Adams, Skoug)
Two high schoolers, Luis Campusano and M.J. Melendez, lead the pack. Both are solid defenders with their own issues, both have a lot of power projection, and both have a lot of swing and miss in their games. Their outlooks and potential risk/rewards are actually so similar that I have them ranked right next to each other in my top 100. That said, they are in fact different players, with different swings and different defensive holes in their game. Campusano, who got himself into excellent shape this season, generates power through his strength and a clean swing that he is constantly tweaking, and I along with others believe there is more to come. Meanwhile, Melendez gets his power from a rotation swing in which he whips his energy from his lower half up through his torso and arms, thereby whipping the bat through the zone with great speed and force. Campusano has a much thicker build, but Melendez is more agile and can use what he has more efficiently, giving them roughly equal outlooks on power. Both have question marks about future contact, Campusano more because of a simple lack of being acclimated to high-level arms, and Melendez because of the significant bat wrap he has before his swing, as well as the length and nature of the swing itself. Again, though they have different reasons for their swing and miss, the net sum is about equal. On defense, Melendez gets the slight edge because he is better at blocking balls and moving around behind the plate. That said, Campusano isn't bad at that either, and they both have excellent arm strength. If you like the upside of a Joe Mauer type catcher, Melendez is your guy, while if you like the more traditionally stocky and durable Russell Martin mold, go with Campusano. At the college level, Riley Adams and Evan Skoug are so different that they aren't worth comparing. Adams, out of the University of San Diego, gets frequent comparisons to fellow former Torero Kris Bryant, though more because of his mechanics than because of his offensive outlook. He lacks a standout tool, but he can barrel baseballs up and can be a serviceable defender. Overall, it looks like a backup catcher profile, but it's a safer bet than Campusano or Melendez due to his career .305/.411/.504 line in San Diego's conference, the WCC. Evan Skoug, as profiled in the power bats demographic, has the best present pop of any player on this list, but his huge strikeout issues make him a risky pick, even for a college player. Another negative is that he has a decent chance of being forced to move to first base, as he is not on the defensive caliber of Adams, but a positive would be his strong work ethic and leadership skills. He is reportedly working extremely hard to hone his defensive skills and remain a catcher. Basically, nothing about him his neutral; scouts love his power and work ethic, but hate his strikeouts and aren't satisfied with his defense.
Tier III (Wong, Whatley, Varsho, Hunt, Morgan)
Connor Wong, as I stated in the last post, is only a catcher because he ended up behind a plate and realized he was pretty good. He's an above average runner, not just for a catcher but for any type of player, giving him a very unique profile. As a speedster with all around decent hitting abilities, he could end up in the Austin Barnes mold in which he splits time behind the plate and in the infield. Two players in less competitive conferences, Oral Roberts' Matt Whatley and UW-Milwaukee's Daulton Varsho, have played each other about even this season. Whatley slashed .302/.446/.509 with 11 home runs in the Summit League despite playing better in his sophomore season, while Varsho finished at .362/.490/.643 in the Horizon League. Both have thunder in their bats, generating plus power, but Varsho's overall better contact ability make him the better hitter, in my opinion. However, Whatley is the best defensive college catcher with a chance to go in the top 100 picks. Varsho, meanwhile, is nearly as good with the glove, but lags behind not only Whatley but most of the class with his below average arm. Both project to go somewhere in the third or fourth round, and who goes first is anybody's call. Blake Hunt is the only high school catcher in this tier (though Sam McMillan narrowly missed), with upside as high as Campusano or Melendez but more risk. He has a lot of mechanical issues in his swing, but they shouldn't be too difficult to fix and he could be an above average hitter. His calling card is his defense, which is the best among high school catchers. Overall, he's a less advanced Matt Whatley. Lastly, Joey Morgan joined Wong in the last post, as he projects as pretty average across the board. He should be able to stick behind home plate, and he should hit enough to be a backup, but nothing really jumps off the page with him. He's a breakout guy this year, so those that value trajectory would be inclined to take him before Whatley, who slumped this year.
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