1-7: SS Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State
CBA-31: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina
2-44: RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS (CA)
3-79: RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman
4-108: RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State
5-138: RHP Logan Hofmann, Northwestern State
I really like this draft class the Pirates pulled together. They started off with one of my favorite players in the class, Nick Gonzales, which really makes the draft class right there. From there, they picked up five consecutive right handed pitchers, starting with three famous names that each bring something a little different. Carmen Mlodzinski is more of a high floor, high-probability big league starter, while Jared Jones as a ton of upside as a high school power arm and Nick Garcia recently transitioned to pitching and was trending up really quickly. The last two picks, Jack Hartman and Logan Hofmann, were money savers, with Hartman bringing a live arm with great stuff and Hofmann looking more like a safe bet type of guy. Aside from right handed pitching, Cape Cod League success was a big theme here, as Gonzales won the league's MVP, Mlodzinski looked equally fantastic, and Garcia and Hofmann both put themselves on the map there before elevating their stock further this spring.
Full index of team reviews here.
1-7: SS Nick Gonzales, New Mexico State (my rank: 4)
Man, there is so much to love about Nick Gonzales, and getting him here at #7 is a steal. First, we'll start with his unreal stats, which include a .435/.549/.838 slash line, 28 home runs, and a 40/66 strikeout to walk ratio in 71 games over the past two seasons. Even though he played at altitude against a relatively weaker schedule, those are still unfathomably eye-popping numbers, and he went out and won the Cape Cod League MVP with a .349/.445/.599 line and eight home runs against elite competition to prove his bat is for real (I wrote about the importance of that summer performance in February here). He's an absolute joy to watch play, employing an extremely professional approach that he executes every time. Gonzales has a simple, but explosive, right handed swing that produces above average power despite his listed 5'10" height. He never sells out for home runs, though, instead looking to make hard, line drive contact from gap to gap, with his elite barrel control translating naturally into home runs. That gives him the upside of a 20-25 home runs hitter with high on-base percentages, a true all star projection if things work out. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but probably fits better at second base, where he should be solid average. On top of everything, he's known to have a great work ethic. Gonzales grew up just outside of Tucson, Arizona, and despite a couple of Division I offers, he decided to walk on at New Mexico State, where he outworked everyone around him and turned himself into the best hitter the school had ever seen. He signed at slot value for $5.43 million and I'm really excited to see where this pick goes. Pre-draft profile here.
CBA-31: RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina (my rank: 25)
Another nice pickup for the Pirates, especially since they got him to sign under slot. Growing up on Hilton Head Island, Carmen Mlodzinski (pronounced "muhjinski") was a well-known prep prospect with top five rounds buzz, but instead ended up heading to USC for college. He had an up and down freshman season in 2018, which is completely natural for a freshman in the SEC, then broke his foot in 2019 and never really got to show what he was capable of that year. Returning in the Cape Cod League, he elevated his stock perhaps more than any other pitcher in the league with a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings. Mlodzinski entered the spring with the chance to go as high as the top half of the first round, but his stuff looked slightly flatter and after putting up a 2.84 ERA and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings, he fell to the Pirates at pick #31. Over the summer, Mlodzinski sported a low to mid 90's fastball that kicked up as high as 99 at one point, in addition to a plus slider and an above average cutter and changeup. However, this spring, the velocity was still mostly there but his offspeed pitches looked more ordinary. His command, after being consistently above average on the Cape, was a bit more inconsistent. Scouts wanted to see him run through the SEC to determine whether it was just a slow start, or if the summer was really an anomaly. Still, even if the down spring is really the truth, there's a lot to like. Mlodzinski gets a lot of weak contact from his sinking fastball, and even this spring, he was able to touch 97. His ability to manipulate his slider between a breaking ball with more depth and a cutter with more velocity was still there, and he hits his spots pretty well. That gives him a nice floor as a back-end starter, but of course, the Pirates would like to see the summer version of Mlodzinski emerge once more. If that happens, the 6'2" right hander would look more like a #2 starter than a #5, and could make this a great pick. Overall, I see him as something of a safe bet #3/#4 guy. His $2.05 million signing bonus was about $260,000 below slot, which really adds to the value of this pick. Pre-draft profile here.
2-44: RHP Jared Jones, La Mirada HS, CA (my rank: 45)
Jared Jones is a really interesting arm, and the Pirates have a chance to pull some really big upside out of their second round pick. The Southern California native has been famous on the showcase circuit for a long time, having shown really loud stuff early in his high school career, but the lack of progress with his command allowed other names to pass him. He was moving back up boards again with a strong start to the 2020 season, pushing himself safely into the top 50 picks. A 6'1" right hander, he sits in the mid 90's with his power fastball and can crank it up a little higher at times, a product of tremendous arm strength despite a small-ish frame, at least small-ish by starting pitcher standards. Beyond the big fastball, he has a great slider that can flash true plus at times, a solid changeup, and a new curveball that he added during the pandemic. With big velocity and four potential above average pitches, there is a ton to like here. His command has been pretty shaky throughout his career, but it was creeping closer to average this spring, which likely is what made the Pirates feel comfortable enough to pull the trigger on a big over slot deal in the top 50. While his upside is really exciting, the idea of a skinny 6'1" kid throwing in the mid 90's makes me a little nervous about future arm surgeries, but he's proven durable up to this point. It cost the Pirates $2.2 million to buy him out of a Texas commitment, which was about $510,000 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
3-79: RHP Nick Garcia, Chapman (my rank: 61)
For their next pick, the Pirates went back to Southern California to grab Nick Garcia out of Division III Chapman University. A product of Junipero Serra High School in the San Francisco area, the same school that gave us Tom Brady, Garcia was recruited as an infielder and is actually pretty new to pitching. Chapman liked his arm strength and moved him to the mound as a sophomore, and the results have been electric – over two seasons, admittedly against weak competition, he is 13-1 with a 1.08 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 118/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings for the Panthers. He runs his fastball into the mid 90's and has reached as high as 98, adding an above average slider and cutter as well that he can work between. There isn't much of a changeup to this point, but that's nitpicking. With three above average pitches, solid average command, and a durable, 6'4" frame, Garcia is already brimming with starter's traits very early into his pitching career. He has an easy, repeatable delivery, so at this point, the Pirates just need to keep working with him to further sharpen that slider/cutter combination, refine his changeup, and keep up the progress with his command. With few miles on his arm, he theoretically brings less injury risk as well. Garcia is the kind of guy who might have been a much higher pick had he simply attended a Division I program, but I really like the pick here for the Pirates and I think he's well worth the $1.2 million signing bonus, which was about $419,600 above slot value. Pre-draft profile here.
4-108: RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State (unranked)
Here's another converted position player. A native of the Atlanta area, Hartman began his career hitting at Tallahassee Community College but transferred to the College of Central Florida (different than UCF) to begin pitching. After that, he bounced to Appalachian State, where he has pitched in relief for the Mountaineers. In two seasons, he has a 4.28 ERA and a 48/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 33.2 innings, showing swing and miss stuff but a lot of inconsistency. At his best, he can run his fastball up to 97 and miss bats with a wipeout slider, but oftentimes, he can lose feel for that slider as well as the strike zone. The 6'3" righty is relatively young for a senior, only turning 22 the day after I published this piece, but the Pirates are going to need to work with him on his day to day consistency if he wants to stick. That's closer stuff at times, but he won't be much more than a middle reliever if he doesn't improve in that regard. Starting is probably unlikely here. He signed for $60,000, which was $478,200 below slot value.
5-138: RHP Logan Hofmann, Northwestern State (unranked)
This one is definitely an interesting arm. Logan Hofmann grew up in the tiny, remote town of Muenster, Saskatchewan (population 422), about 70 miles east of Saskatoon, then headed south to Colby Community College in rural western Kansas for school. Keeping it rural and keeping his southward path, Hofmann landed at Northwestern State in Natchitoches, Louisiana this year as a junior, and the results were spectacular; over four starts against so-so competition, he tossed 28 shutout innings and struck out 38 while walking just five batters (albeit with three unearned runs). Not the biggest guy in the world at 5'10", he's a polished strike thrower that sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball to get swings and misses. The stuff isn't crazy loud, but it worked for him at NSU and it worked on the Cape, where he struck out 27 and walked eight over 20.1 innings of work. He's also very young for a college junior and doesn't turn 21 until November, but regardless, he probably fits better in the bullpen long term, where hopefully the stuff will tick up a little bit. He signed for $125,000, which was $277,000 below slot value.
Undrafted: RHP Parker Brahms, Sacramento State (unranked)
Brahms was a senior sign out of Sacramento State, where he had a productive four year career, going 18-14 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 295/80 strikeout to walk ratio over 291.1 innings, making him the Hornets' all time strikeout leader. He was off to a really hot start in 2020, putting up a 1.14 ERA and a 32 strikeouts in 23.2 innings, and perhaps even more impressively, he didn't walk a single batter. His fastball sits in the upper 80's but has peaked at 92 at times, not overwhelming velocity but enough to get the job done. He adds a good curveball that has been his strikeout pitch, as well as a changeup, and a slight pause in his delivery can disrupt hitters' timing. It's probably a relief profile overall, where his fastball could spend more time above 90 than below, and his plus command could help him work between that fastball and curveball. He was drafted by the Dodgers in the 27th round last year but did not sign.
Showing posts with label Carmen Mlodzinski. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carmen Mlodzinski. Show all posts
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Friday, April 10, 2020
2020 Draft Profile: Carmen Mlodzinski
RHP Carmen Mlodzinski, South Carolina
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 25.1 IP
I want to start out by saying that I had been pronouncing his name as it is spelled since he was a well-known high schooler coming out of Hilton Head, South Carolina, and I only recently (like in the last week) found it it was actually pronounced "Muh-jinski." So needless to say, that's a bit of a shocker to me. Anyways, Mlodzinski could have gone in the top five rounds of the 2017 draft if he had been signable, but instead he headed upstate to Columbia to join the Gamecocks. His time there has been a bit of a roller coaster – as a freshman in 2018, he put up a 5.52 ERA and a 43/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, not the flashiest numbers but reasonable enough for a freshman in the SEC. Three starts into what looked to be a promising sophomore season in 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA and an 11/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings, but he broke his foot and missed the rest of the season.
However, things changed when he got on the mound this past summer. Making up for lost time in the elite Cape Cod League, Mlodzinski put up a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 34.1 innings, shutting down college baseball's best hitters along the way. His stuff was sharp, his command was sharp, and he put himself right in the middle of the first round conversation. This spring, though, has been a bit disappointing. His first two starts against Holy Cross (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K) and Northwestern (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) were strong, but he wasn't quite as good against Clemson (6 IP, 6 ER) and Cornell (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB). His stuff was a bit diminished this spring, and some of the allure that surrounded him on the Cape has faded.
Over the summer, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, a pitch that played up significantly due to his tremendous ability to sink and run it. He also added a sharp downer slider that he could morph into more of a cutter as well as a nice changeup, all of which he landed for strikes to both sides of the plate. This spring, the velocity was still there for the most part but his offspeed pitches softened up just a bit, lacking the big bite they had over the summer. His command was a bit more inconsistent as well, as evidenced by five walks in his final start of the season against a weaker Cornell lineup, and overall his stock dropped just a bit as he failed to miss bats.
All of that said, Mlodzinski still profiles well in the first round with a high floor and a pretty good ceiling. That fastball is still a weapon, with impressive running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. With his cutter, slider, and changeup, even if they stay more in the range they've been this spring, he still has a #4 starter projection due to his ability to induce weak contact, especially on the ground. In order to outplay that #4 starter projection, he needs to do one of both of the following things: regain the feel he had for his offspeed pitches over the summer, and improve his command. The command isn't necessarily a problem, as it was well above average over the summer and still played solid-average this spring, but if he is going to get by as a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher, he'll need above average to plus command in order to be a #3 starter or better.
As a safe bet, back of the rotation starter with the upside of a #2 or a #3, he fits somewhere in the back half of the first round. He has a workhorse 6'2" frame and no clear weaknesses, and that dominant summer on the Cape is still very fresh in scouts' minds, especially with the shortened spring season. If he does fall, he seems like a candidate to go back for second junior year in order to rebuild his stock, but my guess is he doesn't fall far enough for that to happen. Who knows, maybe he was just a little rusty at the outset of the season and the Mlodzinski who showed up over the summer was the real deal.
Spring footage with the flatter, but still impressive, stuff
Warmup pitches from the Cape over the summer
Full index of profiles here
DoB: 2/19/1999.
2020 Stats: 2-1, 2.84 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 22/8 K/BB in 25.1 IP
I want to start out by saying that I had been pronouncing his name as it is spelled since he was a well-known high schooler coming out of Hilton Head, South Carolina, and I only recently (like in the last week) found it it was actually pronounced "Muh-jinski." So needless to say, that's a bit of a shocker to me. Anyways, Mlodzinski could have gone in the top five rounds of the 2017 draft if he had been signable, but instead he headed upstate to Columbia to join the Gamecocks. His time there has been a bit of a roller coaster – as a freshman in 2018, he put up a 5.52 ERA and a 43/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 45.2 innings, not the flashiest numbers but reasonable enough for a freshman in the SEC. Three starts into what looked to be a promising sophomore season in 2019, he had a 5.91 ERA and an 11/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.2 innings, but he broke his foot and missed the rest of the season.
However, things changed when he got on the mound this past summer. Making up for lost time in the elite Cape Cod League, Mlodzinski put up a 1.83 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio across 34.1 innings, shutting down college baseball's best hitters along the way. His stuff was sharp, his command was sharp, and he put himself right in the middle of the first round conversation. This spring, though, has been a bit disappointing. His first two starts against Holy Cross (7 IP, 0 ER, 3 K) and Northwestern (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 K) were strong, but he wasn't quite as good against Clemson (6 IP, 6 ER) and Cornell (5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 BB). His stuff was a bit diminished this spring, and some of the allure that surrounded him on the Cape has faded.
Over the summer, he sat in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, a pitch that played up significantly due to his tremendous ability to sink and run it. He also added a sharp downer slider that he could morph into more of a cutter as well as a nice changeup, all of which he landed for strikes to both sides of the plate. This spring, the velocity was still there for the most part but his offspeed pitches softened up just a bit, lacking the big bite they had over the summer. His command was a bit more inconsistent as well, as evidenced by five walks in his final start of the season against a weaker Cornell lineup, and overall his stock dropped just a bit as he failed to miss bats.
All of that said, Mlodzinski still profiles well in the first round with a high floor and a pretty good ceiling. That fastball is still a weapon, with impressive running and sinking action that makes it tough to square up. With his cutter, slider, and changeup, even if they stay more in the range they've been this spring, he still has a #4 starter projection due to his ability to induce weak contact, especially on the ground. In order to outplay that #4 starter projection, he needs to do one of both of the following things: regain the feel he had for his offspeed pitches over the summer, and improve his command. The command isn't necessarily a problem, as it was well above average over the summer and still played solid-average this spring, but if he is going to get by as a pitch-to-contact, ground ball pitcher, he'll need above average to plus command in order to be a #3 starter or better.
As a safe bet, back of the rotation starter with the upside of a #2 or a #3, he fits somewhere in the back half of the first round. He has a workhorse 6'2" frame and no clear weaknesses, and that dominant summer on the Cape is still very fresh in scouts' minds, especially with the shortened spring season. If he does fall, he seems like a candidate to go back for second junior year in order to rebuild his stock, but my guess is he doesn't fall far enough for that to happen. Who knows, maybe he was just a little rusty at the outset of the season and the Mlodzinski who showed up over the summer was the real deal.
Spring footage with the flatter, but still impressive, stuff
Warmup pitches from the Cape over the summer
Monday, February 10, 2020
2020 Draft Preview: Ten Prospects Who Could Go #1
The college baseball season is set to start on February 14th, while various high school leagues start around the same time. That means one thing for MLB fans – it's time to start thinking about the draft. The Detroit Tigers have the first overall pick for the second time in three seasons, two years after they selected right hander Casey Mize out of Auburn. I'm not big into the guessing game of who teams like or whether they might go under slot, but that being said, here are ten players that have a shot at hearing their name called first overall.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
Note: I'm not considering under slot signees, as those could truly be anybody. This is more about who could be the country's best draft prospect come June 10th.
The Frontrunners: These three are the clear frontrunners in my mind. While none are those clear-cut, generational #1's like Adley Rutschman or Bryce Harper, they all come with a great combination of low risk and high reward, while they also fit their roles about as cleanly as possible. Emerson Hancock checks all the boxes of a future ace, Spencer Torkelson has done all he's needed to do to prove he can threaten for 40 home runs annually, and Austin Martin might be the toughest out in college baseball while bringing an exceptional all-around profile.
- RHP Emerson Hancock (Georgia): This one makes all the sense in the world, and at this point, it's probably the most likely. Hancock has a lot of similarities to the Tigers' 2018 first overall pick, Casey Mize, in that both are taller SEC right handers with excellent statistical track records, multiple plus pitches, good command, and minor durability questions. Hancock was untouchable during his sophomore season in Athens, posting a 1.99 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 97/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings, and he was at his best against tough SEC lineups with a 1.69 ERA in conference play. The 6'4" righty sits in the mid 90's with ease, adding in a nasty slider, a distinct curveball, and a very advanced changeup, all of which he can mix and locate easily. You can't really ask for anything more out of a college pitcher, and he easily would have been the top pitcher in the 2019 class in addition to the 2020 class.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintain, really. Hancock looks just how you'd draw up a future ace, so going out there and pitching the same as he has will keep him a frontrunner. A minor lat injury slowed him down the stretch in 2019, but that's a small issue and he should be able to prove he's past it within a couple of starts.
- 1B Spencer Torkelson (Arizona State): As a Pac-12 first baseman with as complete a bat as any in the class, Torkelson has already drawn comparisons to 2019 White Sox first rounder Andrew Vaughn. Torkelson can't quite match Vaughn's Joey Votto-like eye for the strike zone, but he should go in the same draft range. He was unstoppable at Arizona State in 2019, slashing .351/.446/.707 with 23 home runs and a 45/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games, including an impressive .320/.437/.720 in-conference line against a particularly strong Pac-12 set of opponents. He generates his power with an easy, direct right handed swing, and he does not need to sell out at all for to tap his plus plus raw power. To me, a good comp would be Pete Alonso, as Torkelson can match the Mets star's power as well as his ability to get to it, though Torkelson might also draw a few more walks. Additionally, Torkelson is young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, which only adds to his upside.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Teams don't often like to move off up-the-middle players for their first overall pick, and the last time a corner infielder or corner outfielder went first overall was Bryce Harper in 2010. In that sense, I think the Tigers need to be absolutely certain that Torkelson will hit for impact if they're going to break that trend, so the only thing he can really do is cut down on his strikeouts a bit. They're not an issue at this point, but if he wants to go first overall, that could be what seals the deal given that he's not going to provide much value on defense.
- IF Austin Martin (Vanderbilt): No, not Aston Martin like the car. Marlins first rounder JJ Bleday hogged most of the spotlight in that loaded Vanderbilt national champion lineup, but Martin is just as good of a prospect and he could beat Bleday's fourth overall draft position. Martin was impossible to keep off the bases in 2019, slashing .392/.486/.604 with ten home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 34/40 strikeout to walk ratio as a sophomore, and that was against a very difficult schedule that included the slate of SEC games as well as the run through the College World Series to the National Championship. He is so adept at finding the barrel and making hard contact that he should be able to fly through the minor leagues, and he has all the tools to post .400+ on-base percentages in the majors. Additionally, Martin may be able to stick at shortstop, which would add to his overall profile in a big way. Honestly, he seems like a very similar prospect to what Alex Bregman was five years ago coming out of LSU. They're both slightly undersized SEC shortstops with hit-over-power profiles but with exceptional plate discipline and ability to find the barrel to make consistent, hard contact. While I don't expect Martin to explode for 41 home runs like Bregman, the similarities are there at the same age.
What he needs to do to go first overall: We pretty much know who Martin is as a hitter, so just maintaining where he's at will keep him in the conversation right up until draft day. That said, to get a little bit of an edge on a presumably healthy and productive Hancock and Torkelson, adding a little bit of power and maybe popping for 15 or so home runs while maintaining the plate discipline and low strikeout totals could do the trick. In a very pitching-heavy farm system, the Tigers would probably love to add a bat to that group if one separates itself, and an Austin Martin who can profile for 15-20 home runs rather than 10-15 home runs would be a more well-rounded player than a Spencer Torkelson who could hit 35-40 but who would have to play first base.
The Next Tier of College Arms: The first thing you might notice is that three of the four pitchers I mentioned here are SEC arms, which makes that four out of five pitchers when including Emerson Hancock, and this is to say nothing about Mississippi State's JT Ginn, Auburn's Tanner Burns, Georgia's Cole Wilcox, Florida's Tommy Mace, or Vanderbilt's non-draft eligible Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. All I have to say is good luck to Austin Martin, Heston Kjerstad, Casey Martin, and all of the other SEC bats that are going to have to survive this gauntlet. That said, the fact that Hancock is such a complete pitcher means that he finds himself just far enough ahead of these arms that they'll need to take a tangible step forward in order to entice the Tigers at first overall. Lacy is the favorite in this group to do so, but each of them has slight holes in their profile that Hancock does not. For Lacy and Crochet, it's command, while for Crochet and Mlodzinski, it's the lack of a track record, and for Detmers, it's a lower ceiling.
- LHP Asa Lacy (Texas A&M): Lacy has all the ingredients needed to become a future ace. In his sophomore season at Texas A&M, the 6'4" lefty put up a 2.13 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 130/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 88.2 innings, using a lethal four pitch mix to confound SEC hitters. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and his curve, slider, and changeup all flash plus. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for the class, and his slider in particular just missed bats in bunches last year. He's not *quite* as complete of a pitcher as Hancock, as his secondary pitches can occasionally flatten out and his command plays closer to average, but he still comes in with an excellent combination of stuff and polish that should make him a top ten pick if he stays healthy.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Lacy looks like a first overall pick on the right day, and it's not like those days are anomalies – they actually come pretty frequently. He just needs to get more consistent with those secondary pitches, which as I said can flatten out, and his command could probably use to take a step forward if he wants to pass Emerson Hancock on the Tigers' draft board. That's entirely possible, and if I had to guess who outside of that top three had the best shot, it would be Lacy.
- LHP Garrett Crochet (Tennessee): Crochet finds himself on this part of the list for a very different reason than Lacy. While Lacy is a relatively complete pitcher who just needs to make a few refinements, Crochet is a complete wild card. He has a 4.77 ERA over two years at Tennessee, including a 4.02 mark and an 81/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings as a sophomore, but he took a massive step forward in the fall by adding five miles per hour to his fastball and sharpening his secondary stuff. The 6'6" lefty now sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and has been flashing plus with his slider and changeup, and scouts are very excited to see what he can do in the spring. With that stuff, he looks like a potential ace, though his overall command remains relatively unproven.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Maintain the stuff over a full season. Crochet saw this huge bump in his stuff during fall practice, and there's a good chance he regresses a bit during the spring, which would put him closer to the middle of the first round. To convince the Tigers that he's the best player available, Crochet needs to prove that his fall stuff was for real, and it wouldn't hurt to sharpen his command a bit, either.
- RHP Carmen Mlodzinski (South Carolina): Mlodzinski, with a career 5.61 ERA and 54/32 strikeout to walk ratio in two years at South Carolina, finds himself in a relatively similar spot to Garrett Crochet. He's not 6'6" and left handed, but he did turn around and absolutely dominate the elite Cape Cod League with a 1.83 ERA and a 43/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.1 innings over the summer, which can't be written off as an anomaly because he's flashed plus stuff since high school. Injuries had really kept him from catching his stride in the SEC, but when healthy on the Cape he showed a low to mid 90's fastball, a sharp downer slider, and a nice changeup that flashed plus, which was enough to confound the best hitters college baseball has to offer. His command, which had previously been inconsistent, was much sharper on the Cape as well. Though the overall upside isn't quite as exciting as Crochet's, I think he has a better chance to maintain his progress over a full season.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just like Crochet, it's maintain. I think even if he does maintain, he has a better chance to go more in the middle of the top ten just because of the lack of huge upside, but another step forward with his command and/or some regression or injuries to the guys above him could push him to the top with three potential plus pitches and potentially plus command.
- LHP Reid Detmers (Louisville): Detmers is a bit more of a long shot, as he has perhaps the least upside of this set of college arms, but he has as high of a floor as any of them and that certainly counts for something. He was one of the best pitchers in the ACC as a sophomore, putting up a 2.78 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 167/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.1 innings, and those 167 strikeouts finished second in Division I only to Mississippi State's (now Brewers') Ethan Small at 176. He doesn't have wow stuff, coming in with a low 90's fastball, a slow, looping curve a la Clayton Kershaw, and a solid changeup, but it plays up for a number of reasons. One is the deception in his delivery, as the lefty hides the ball well and gets both good angle and good life on his fastball. The second reason is his command, which is among the best in the class and which enables him to control the strike zone like few other college pitchers are able to. Combine it with his age, as he doesn't turn 21 until July, and you've got the floor of a #4 starter right off the bat. Though his best secondary pitch is a curveball, Detmers kind of reminds me of former Stanford (now Royals) lefty Kris Bubic in that they're similarly built, somewhat funky lefties with fairly modest stuff who rack up tons of strikeouts at least in part based on their deception, and they're both very young for their class with summer birthdays. One major difference, though, is that Detmers' command is well ahead of where Bubic's was when he went 40th overall.
What he needs to do to go first overall: Just maintaining unfortunately won't be enough. Detmers would need to see a slight velocity bump, perhaps up to the 92-95 range (he's currently closer to 90), and he'd probably need to take a step forward with his changeup as well. While the lack of a high ceiling might limit his chances a bit, he's such a low risk option and combining that with an increased ceiling from a hypothetical uptick in stuff could be a really nice opportunity for the Tigers, especially given Bubic's success in the Kansas City system.
Other Options: Of these three, I think Mitchell easily has the best shot as an up-the-middle, tooled out college performer, while Kelley's demographic (HS RHP) has never gone first overall and Veen has a lot to prove in order to get there. All three of these guys are relative long shots.
- OF Garrett Mitchell (UCLA): Mitchell was a top high school prospect coming out of Orange Lutheran in Southern California, which has produced multiple major leaguers including Gerrit Cole as well as Rangers 2018 first rounder Cole Winn. A potential top 50 pick, he instead opted to attend UCLA and after an unremarkable freshman season, he got stronger as a sophomore and slashed .349/.418/.566 with six home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He's one of the most reliable hitters in the country at making consistent, hard contact, and his speed allows him to turn base hits into doubles and triples (he had 14 and 12 in 2019, respectively). That speed also plays on defense, and a little bit of refinement could make him a plus defender in center field. Mitchell has one of the best combinations of low risk and high reward in this draft, though going into the season there is clear daylight between him and the top two hitters in the class, Spencer Torkelson and Austin Martin.
What he needs to do to go first overall: There are two things he needs to do here, but fortunately, they're both very achievable. First, he could use to tighten his strike zone discipline just a little bit, as it's not an issue at this point but it's also not a clear strength, and that's a major difference between him and Martin at this point. Second, and this is the exciting part, it would be nice to see him tap into additional game power. While he's more of a line drive hitter at this point that likes to drop balls in the gaps then use his speed to cause havoc, he can really drive the ball deep when he tries to and adding some loft could make him a true all-around threat as a hitter. If Mitchell starts to lift the ball a little more and deploy that big power in games, while tightening up the strike zone, he could very well move into that first tier with Torkelson and Martin.
- RHP Jared Kelley (Refugio HS, TX): Almost every year, we have to mention that no high school right handed pitcher has ever gone first overall, and every year we have to pick one and speculate whether he'd end the drought. While it's unlikely to happen, this year's man is Jared Kelley, a big right hander from the small South Texas town of Refugio, about 50 miles from Corpus Christi. He's about as complete of a pitcher as you'll find in an 18 year old, as the physically-mature 6'2" right hander consistently sits in the mid 90's with his fastball while adding two potentially plus offspeed pitches. His curveball has sharp two plane break, though it could use a little more refinement, and his changeup might be the best in the high school class with late diving action away from left handed hitters. He commands it all very well for a high schooler, and it's the kind of profile that could move really quickly through the minors and be up before his 21st birthday.
What he needs to do to go first overall: It's hard to say, because Kelley won't be able to prove much against weaker competition outside Corpus Christi and because he's just such a complete pitcher as it is and he's unlikely to add much velocity. Getting more consistent with that breaking ball would help, as would staying healthy of course. Another thing that isn't necessarily expected but could definitely happen would be coming out this spring with a new slider, and having said slider become an effective out pitch. Overall, really, it would just take some luck with perhaps some guys ahead of him not living up to expectations or the Tigers just deciding to go out of the box, but it's a long shot.
- OF Zac Veen (Spruce Creek HS, FL): This is my wild card pick. Veen, a high schooler in the Daytona Beach area, looks more like a back-half of the first round guy right now, but he really has the chance to rise this spring. Very projectable at 6'4", he already shows great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact against advanced pitching, and he has plenty of room to add strength and turn that into home run power. Additionally, there's lots of loft and leverage in his explosive left handed swing, and any gains in strength should be immediately followed by an increase in power output. I like his combination of a strong hit tool, power projection, and overall upside, and he could shoot up draft boards this spring.
What he needs to do to go first overall: A lot, as he's a long shot at this point. Veen already controls the zone well, but he'll need to tap significant power throughout the season while keeping his strikeouts down. He'll probably be forced to an outfield corner, which certainly doesn't help his case here, but if he can somehow prove he can stick in center while adding that power, there's a chance.
Honorable Mentions: These guys aren't counted in my ten, they're just other names that could figure into the top handful of picks with big springs.
- 2B Nick Gonzales (New Mexico State): Gonzales is the best prospect I left off my list of ten, having slashed a flat-out stupid .432/.532/.773 as a sophomore in 2019 then an even more impressive .351/.451/.630 in the elite Cape Cod League. I left him off the list because there are two college hitters clearly ahead of him (Torkelson and Martin) and I'm not exactly sure what he can prove at NM State in 2020, given that it's like playing in super-Coors. Maybe a home run or two off of Asa Lacy when Texas A&M comes to down on March 6th could be the difference. Regardless, he projects as a high on-base bat with good power and decent defense at second base, and at this point he looks firmly like a top ten pick.
- RHP JT Ginn (Mississippi State): Dodgers fans might remember this name, as Ginn went 30th overall out of high school in 2018 before turning them down and heading to school. He's ironed out his mechanics a bit in college and is now much more of a complete product than he was in high school, when scouts were buying the upside in his power right arm.
- OF Austin Hendrick (West Allegheny HS, PA): Hendrick is, arguably the top high school bat in the class, and for now he's actually a bit ahead of Veen. He has tremendous upside with explosive left handed power, though he has swing and miss questions that he won't be able to resolve/prove against weaker Pittsburgh-area competition.
- RHP Nick Bitsko (Central Bucks-East HS, PA): Bitsko reclassified and is draft-eligible this season, though he was old for the 2021 class with a June birthday and is only somewhat young for the 2020 class. With an advanced three pitch mix and good control in addition to a durable frame, he has all the tools necessary to be a frontline starter.
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