Reviewing the Washington Nationals Farm System

Coming into the season, the Nationals' farm system was very top heavy, and with Juan Soto no longer a prospect and not much up to take his place, the system is pretty shallow behind top prospects Victor Robles and Carter Kieboom. Even with a heavy emphasis on drafting pitching in recent years, the system remains hitter-heavy as many of those pitchers have failed to materialize into legitimate prospects. Fortunately, the Nationals are fairly deep at two of the toughest positions to find: catcher and shortstop.

Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Chiefs*, AA Harrisburg Senators, High A Potomac Nationals, Class A Hagerstown Suns, Short Season Auburn Doubledays, complex level GCL and DSL Nationals
*AAA affiliate will move from Syracuse, NY to Fresno, CA in 2019

The Headliner: OF Victor Robles
21 year old Victor Robles was supposed to do what Juan Soto did in 2018, but an arm injury wiped out most of his season and he finished slashing .276/.371/.370 with a pair of home runs and 19 stolen bases over 52 games, showing a nice 32/26 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Syracuse. He's an extremely advanced player for his age, showing power, on-base ability, speed, and great defense at a young age, and at this point all he needs is an extended shot. I don't think he's the future superstar that a lot of analysts have pegged him as, but I see him producing like an Adam Eaton-type player for a long time, making a few All Star teams and hitting at the top of the lineup as long as manager Dave Martinez realizes that hitting for power doesn't make you a bad leadoff man. In 21 major league games this year, he slashed .288/.348/.525 with three home runs and three stolen bases, showing that he's ready and that the Nationals should be prepared to make him their starting center fielder in 2019 and beyond.

Infield Prospects: SS Carter Kieboom, SS Luis Garcia, SS Yasel Antuna, SS Jose Sanchez, 3B Drew Ward, and 1B KJ Harrison
The Nationals system is fortunate to have plenty of shortstops in the minors, and while most of these guys will either have to move off the position or won't have the bat to hit in the majors, it's nice knowing at least one will probably work out as a starting shortstop. The most likely major leaguer is 21 year old Carter Kieboom, a shortstop right now who may be able to cut it at that position in the majors but whose more likely destination is second or third base, depending on Anthony Rendon. Kieboom missed time to injuries in 2017 but had a big 2018 by slashing .280/.357/.444 with 16 home runs and a 109/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Potomac and AA Harrisburg, showing power, plate discipline, and good defense. His game is actually fairly similar to Rendon's, and while Rendon represents more of a ceiling than a most likely outcome for Kieboom, he could be a 20 homer bat with strong on-base percentages in the majors. 18 year old Luis Garcia did more than any other position player prospect to boost his stock this year, slashing .298/.336/.406 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 82/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. The bat is a little lighter than Kieboom's, but he is exceptionally young and won't even turn 19 until May. His strong performances in A ball, with no loss of production with the promotion from Class A to High A, point to a very advanced bat for his age. As of now, he also looks like he can stick at shortstop, so the big question will be how much power he can develop. Two more infielders from Garcia's class, 19 year old Yasel Antuna and 18 year old Jose Sanchez, have not developed as quickly. Antuna spent the year at Hagerstown, slashing .220/.293/.331 with six home runs and a 79/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 87 games, while Sanchez played at Short Season Auburn and slashed .230/.309/.282 with no home runs and a 56/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 64 games. Sanchez is considered the stronger defender, perhaps even ahead of Garcia, but both bats are clearly still transitioning to pro baseball. Right now, they look like utility men at best, but a lot can change for players of that age. 23 year old Drew Ward is a different type of prospect, wielding a more advanced bat but also obviously much older. In 2018, he slashed .249/.363/.422 with 13 home runs and a 115/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at AA Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse. He has a very nice power/patience combination, but he struggles to get to his power enough for it to make much of a difference at this point and he's looking more like a bench bat who could be up in the majors by September of 2019. Lastly, 22 year old KJ Harrison came over in the Gio Gonzalez trade and really struggled in his first full season after being drafted in the third round (84th overall) out of Oregon State in 2017. In 115 games at the Brewers' Class A affiliate, he slashed .228/.298/.384 with 12 home runs and a 147/39 strikeout to walk ratio, showing some power but overall not looking like the fairly advanced bat the Brewers thought they were drafting. He has a chance to turn it around in 2019, but he can't really afford another lost season like 2018.

Outfielders and Catchers: OF Daniel Johnson, OF Austin Davidson, OF Gage Canning, OF Telmito Agustin, C Raudy Read, C Tres Barrera, and C Israel Pineda
The outfield isn't as deep as the infield, with only five prospects with any kind of projection (the previously mentioned Victor Robles being the fifth), and all of them come with plenty of risk. 23 year old Daniel Johnson put himself on the map with a breakout 2017 in A ball (.298/.356/.505, 22 HR, 22 SB) but slowed down a bit in 2018 with a .269/.327/.412 line, seven home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 92/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games, mostly at AA Harrisburg. Last year, Johnson flashed a power/speed combination that's hard to find, but the power wasn't really there in 2018 and right now his projection looks something along the lines of a Michael A. Taylor. 25 year old Austin Davidson is an older prospect without much projection remaining, but he's coming off a nice season where he slashed .292/.374/.482 with 11 home runs and a 53/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at High A Potomac and Harrisburg. He could be a nice bench bat but probably not more. Deeper into the minors, 21 year old Gage Canning had a nice debut after being drafted in the fifth round out of Arizona State this year, slashing .253/.319/.470 with six home runs and a 54/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between Short Season Auburn and Class A Hagerstown, with the bulk of the production coming before his promotion. Right now, Canning has a fourth outfielder projection, but I would not count him out as a potential starter down the road as he has few weaknesses in his game as an all-around solid contributor. He's a breakout candidate for 2019. 22 year old Telmito Agustin has been very slow to get his minor league career going, and he just wrapped up his fifth minor league season by slashing .273/.338/.404 with six home runs and a 63/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 games between Auburn and Potomac. He's a good hitter that shows all-around skills at the plate when he's healthy, but he has never been healthy for long enough to really find his groove at the plate and show what he can do. The Nationals are hoping to get another potential fourth outfielder out of him, but he has to stay healthy to become that. Of the three notable catchers in the system, which the Nationals are fortunate to have, 25 year old Raudy Read is the most advanced. Read had a power breakout in 2017 by slugging 17 home runs, but he was then busted for PED's and came back to slash .279/.319/.401 with just three home runs at Harrisburg and AAA Syracuse after his suspension in 2018. He's a solid defensive catcher, but with a so-so bat, he's likely to compete with Pedro Severino and Spencer Kieboom for the backup catcher's spot in 2019. A little farther down the line, 24 year old Tres Barrera slashed .263/.334/.386 with six home runs and a 53/22 strikeout to walk ratio at Potomac, also showing a so-so bat to go along with good defense. There is definitely some power in the bat and he keeps his strikeout rate reasonably low, but as with Read, it looks more like a backup catcher's profile. Perhaps the highest ceiling catcher in the Nationals' system is 18 year old Israel Pineda, who slashed a very respectable .273/.341/.388 with four home runs and a 35/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games down at Auburn. He's an advanced hitter for a teenager, especially for a catcher, and he should also be noted on that list of potential breakouts for 2019. If all goes well (which is definitely not a given with catching prospects), Pineda could occupy a very different spot in the Nationals' minor league depth chart a year from now.

Right Handed Pitchers: Wil Crowe, Mason Denaburg, Sterling Sharp, James Bourque, Jackson Tetreault, and Reid Schaller
The Nationals have traded away tons of pitching talent recently, and they're left with a fairly shallow pool. Among the right handers in the group, 24 year old Wil Crowe is the closest impact arm to the majors. He dominated at High A Potomac (11-0, 2.69 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 78/30 K/BB in 87 IP) but struggled upon his promotion to AA Harrisburg (0-5, 6.15 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 15/16 K/BB in 26.1 IP). He's a big 6'2" righty from East Tennessee, and he gets by showing decent control of mid-rotation stuff. Crowe has to acclimate to the upper minors, as he has proven that A ball hitting is no match for him. His combination of stuff and command is good enough for the upper levels, so it's just a matter of time and he should end up as a #4ish starter. 19 year old Mason Denaburg, meanwhile, was the team's first round pick (27th overall) out of a Florida high school in 2018, and he's all ceiling and no floor. Denaburg has the stuff to be a #2 or #3 starter, and his good athleticism only makes him more likely to become one, but he has not pitched yet due to arm troubles and he has a lot to prove. He should be healthy for 2019, so look for him to start either in Short Season ball or up at Class A Hagerstown, where he could quickly become the system's top pitching prospect with some success out of the gate. 23 year old Sterling Sharp, aside from having an awesome name, just put up a solid season by going 11-6 with a 3.70 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 105/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 148.1 innings between Potomac and Harrisburg. He wasn't spectacular, but he showed good enough stuff and command to fit into the back of the rotation, and while his skinny 6'4" frame logically lends itself to increased velocity down the line, at 23 years old he probably is what he is at this point. 25 year old James Bourque is exclusively a relief-only prospect, having found success in the bullpen after being converted from starting over the offseason. This year, he put up a 1.70 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 76/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 innings at Potomac and Harrisburg, showing a power fastball/curveball combination that is good enough to get major leaguers out but which he needs to command better. Expect him up in the majors as a middle reliever some time in 2019. 22 year old Jackson Tetreault was one of two Florida JuCo Jacksons taken by the Nationals in the middle rounds of the 2017 draft, and while Jackson Stoeckinger hasn't been great, Tetreault just put up a 4.07 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 138/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132.2 innings between Class A Hagerstown and Potomac. Tetrault has a very good fastball/curveball combination, and he could be a mid rotation or back end starter if his changeup comes along. If not, he fits well as a reliever and would move quicker through the minors that way, though the Nationals rightly hold out hope he could be a major league starter. 21 year old Reid Schaller was a third round pick (101st overall) out of Vanderbilt in 2018, and though he's a college arm, he's more of the projectable type than the safe-bet type. Schaller throws hard, but at this point, that's about it, as he doesn't command his average stuff well. The Nationals will hope to develop him as a starter, but he looks more like a set-up man to me.

Left Handed Pitchers: Seth Romero, Tim Cate, Nick Raquet, and Ben Braymer
Currently, the Nationals have four notable left handed pitchers in their system, and they're a fairly diverse group. 22 year old Seth Romero is probably the most interesting not only in this group but in the entire system, having thrown just 47.1 professional innings since he was drafted in the first round (25th overall) out of the University of Houston in 2017. A top ten draft pick on talent alone, he fell because of severe disciplinary issues (he was actually kicked off of his college baseball team after multiple suspensions) and had to miss the start of the 2018 minor league season after more disciplinary issues. In seven starts after coming back, he posted a 3.91 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a nice 34/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.1 innings at Class A Hagerstown, showing the possible front of the rotation stuff that earned him such a high draft pick. If he can just grow up a little bit, his excellent combination of stuff and command could make him a #2 starter, but he has to get on the mound and stay out of trouble at some point in order for that to happen. 21 year old Tim Cate was a second round pick (65th overall) out of UConn in 2018, and he posted a 5.02 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 45/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings between Short Season Auburn and Hagerstown in his pro debut. Cate is an undersized lefty at 6', but his curveball was considered one of the best in the draft and that is a good building block for now. He was inconsistent throughout his college career, but when he was on, he looked like a legitimate mid-rotation starter who could mix pitches and work off that great curveball, so he just has to work on getting more consistent with his command and other pitches. He still could be a mid-rotation starter, but there is a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could still be an impact arm. 22 year old Nick Raquet was a third round pick (103rd overall) out of William & Mary in 2017, and at the time I thought he profiled better as a reliever than as a starter. He was pretty good as a starter in 2018 though, posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.46 WHIP, and a 92/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings between Hagerstown and High A Potomac. The low strikeout rate makes me think he still would look better as a reliever, where his stuff plays up and his command is better (based off of observations from watching him pitch in college), but it was nice to see him pitch well as a starter at Hagerstown then hold his own at Potomac. 24 year old Ben Braymer dominated mid level competition in 2018, going 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 118/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.2 innings for Hagerstown and Potomac. He was older than most of the competition he faced, but he showed good command of average stuff and could make it to the majors as a #5 starter or a Sammy Solis-type long reliever. We need to see him at higher levels but don't count him out just for his age.

2018 Draft Review: Washington Nationals

First 5 rounds: Mason Denaburg (1-27), Tim Cate (2-65), Reid Schaller (3-101), Jake Irvin (4-131), Gage Canning (5-161)
Also notable: Chandler Day (7-221), Tyler Cropley (8-251), Carson Shaddy (10-311), Aaron Fletcher (14-431), Jacob Rhinesmith (18-551), Cole Wilcox (37-1121)

I'll go a little bit more in depth with this one since I'm a Nationals fan based in Virginia where a lot of my readership is as well. Like last year, the Nats focused on pitching this year, taking six pitchers in the first seven rounds. They also stuck to college players, also on-brand for them, taking 31 straight from the college or JuCo ranks after selecting a high schooler with their first pick. Personally, I don't really like the pitching-heavy strategy the Nationals employ, as I feel they've been better with hitters. Guys like Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, and Wilmer Difo are contributing at the major league level and current prospects like Carter Kieboom, Daniel Johnson, and Luis Garcia are coming along nicely. The problem though is that the Nationals have exported an entire farm system's worth of pitching prospects in the last couple seasons (Jesus Luzardo, Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, Nick Pivetta, McKenzie Mills, and Tyler Watson just to name a few) that the system is void of any real pitching prospects outside of Erick Fedde, Wil Crowe, Seth Romero, and maybe Ben Braymer, Nick Raquet, and Sterling Sharp.

1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (my rank: 23)
The Nationals love drafting pitchers who fall due to injury or other non-performance related problems early in the draft; see Lucas Giolito (eventual Tommy John, 2012), Erick Fedde (Tommy John, 2014), Jesus Luzardo (Tommy John, 2016), and Seth Romero (delinquency, 2017). Denaburg is the next in that line, having fallen due to biceps issues that caused him to miss a few months this spring. The 6'3" high school right handed pitcher from Merritt Island, Florida is very athletic, having the opportunity to pitch, hit, and kick (for the football team) at the University of Florida if he had turned the Nationals down. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball easily and can get it up to 97, and he also throws a curveball with good shape and a decent changeup. It's all commanded pretty well, and with some mechanical improvements, he could have above average to plus command in the end. Adding power to his curveball and drop to his changeup, along with the improved command, could make him a #2 starter or even an ace. While that sounds like a lot to improve on, being only three steps forward from ace potential is great for the back of the first round, especially when we're talking about a high schooler that is still just 18. Even two of those three adjustments could make him a mid-rotation starter, and it would really only take one to get him to the majors in some capacity. He signed for $3 million, which is $527,300 above slot, though the Nationals will move him cautiously until he proves he is past the biceps issues.

2-65: LHP Tim Cate (my rank: 71)
While Cate is one of the more well-known names in this part of the draft, he was somewhat hard to get a read on due to inconsistency. The UConn ace had his best year as a freshman in 2016 (5-1, 2.73 ERA, 101/27 K/BB) before regressing a bit as a sophomore (4-3, 3.33 ERA, 102/31 K/BB) and missing some time as a junior (5-4, 2.91 ERA, 67/19 K/BB). The 6' lefty lacks much projection on the mound due to his shorter stature, but the present stuff is pretty good. He throws a fastball in the low 90's but his real weapon is an excellent curveball with both depth and power, one which he can throw in any count. He has a changeup too, and if he can improve it, that will be a very effective three pitch arsenal. The problem with him is consistency, as his stuff has generally remained stable, but his command has wobbled considerably. When the command isn't on, he falls behind in the count and his stuff becomes more hittable, leading to too many base runners. He has had stretches where his command was in place, and in those stretches he looked like a potential top 50 pick or even a first rounder. Clearly, the key for him will be to get more consistent with that command, and he could push through as a #3 starter. One bonus is that he is very young for his class, not turning 21 until September, which would buy him time if the forearm issues that were bothering him flare back up. He signed for $986,200, right at slot, and he has allowed just one run on two hits, one walk, and four strikeouts in five innings so far in the short season New York-Penn League.

3-101: RHP Reid Schaller (unranked)
I liked the Denaburg pick and wasn't opposed to the Cate pick, but I'm not so sure about this one. Schaller is a high ceiling, low floor right hander out of Vanderbilt who missed all of his freshman season in 2017 with Tommy John surgery and didn't pitch all that much this year. In 21 games (2 starts), the 6'3" righty put up a 3.77 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 39/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 28.2 innings. Used mostly in relief, he throws a mid 90's fastball that can touch 98 and his slider can be a plus pitch at times. However, his command isn't all that great and the slider is inconsistent, so he can get blown up on occasion. The Nationals may try to run him out as a starter, where his fastball would probably dip down into the low 90's, but his slider and command will really have to take steps forward for that to work and he'll also have to develop a changeup. At this point, he looks like a reliever, and one with some risk to it, so I'm not a fan of this pick. Schaller signed for $555,100, right at slot, and he threw two perfect innings with three strikeouts in his rookie level Gulf Coast League debut.

4-131: RHP Jake Irvin (unranked)
Irvin is a 6'6" right hander who has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Oklahoma. This year, he finished 6-2 with a 3.41 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 115/28 strikeout to walk ratio, all career bests. Though he has made 38 starts over three seasons in Norman, he's just a two pitch guy at this point with a fastball and a slider. That said, the fastball is in the low 90's with good run and the slider has hard, albeit early, break. Those two pitches play off each other well, and if he can add a changeup, he has a chance to stick in the back end of the rotation. If not, with his above average command, he has the floor of a major league reliever who could work his way into the later innings. If Schaller is the high ceiling, low floor pick, Irvin is the opposite. He signed for $550,000, which is $135,500 above slot.

5-161: OF Gage Canning (my rank: 93)
I like this pick a lot. Canning is an undersized outfielder out of Arizona State who finished a huge junior year slashing .369/.426/.648 with nine home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Even though he's not big, standing at 5'10", I think his power will play up at the next level and his speed can make him a multi-dimensional player. He has a very strong swing, and while his 20.5% strikeout rate was a bit high, the swing won't need much tweaking so he'll be able to focus on improving his barrel control. Right now, it's a fourth outfielder profile, but I think he could outplay that end end up a starter who hits 15-20 home runs per season while posting on base percentages in the .330-.350 range and stealing a few bases. He signed for $308,900, and he's off to a hot start. In 14 games in the New York-Penn League, he slashed .315/.373/.593 with eight extra base hits (including two home runs) and an 18/5 strikeout to walk ratio, becoming one of the first 2018 draftees to earn a promotion to Class A yesterday.

Others: 7th rounder Chandler Day, a 6'5" right hander, was a potential top 100 pick out of high school in 2015, but instead went to school at Vanderbilt and has been decent there. This year, he was 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 47/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 innings, showing strikeout ability with a complete arsenal. He's still more talent and projection than current stuff, and while top flight Vanderbilt coaching couldn't bring it all out of him, pro coaching could. He hold his own on the Cape over two years (3.89 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 42/25 K/BB). 8th rounder Tyler Cropley had a huge senior year as the catcher for Iowa, slashing .342/.449/.578 with nine home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a good defender and will stick behind the plate, and he should have the power to get at least to the upper minors. His swing is long, but it is conducive to power and helps him make the most out of his 5'11" frame, and he kept his strikeout rate down at 11.5% this year. It'll probably rise, but a catcher with power and at least the chance to hit for power is a good find in the eighth round. 10th rounder Carson Shaddy is as familiar a face as there is in Fayetteville, growing up in the town and spending four years as a regular for the University of Arkansas. The redshirt senior had his best year this year, slashing .330/.426/.609 with 13 home runs and a 63/27 strikeout to walk ratio as the Razorbacks came one out away from a National Championship. The infielder most likely has a utility ceiling, and he turns 24 in August, but Cardinals star Matt Carpenter was also drafted as a redshirt senior out of TCU. 14th rounder Aaron Fletcher had a great senior year at the University of Houston, going 7-3 with a 2.19 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 78/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. He's more about command and deception than about velocity and stuff, sitting around 90 with his sinking fastball but hiding and commanding it well to help it play up. The 6' lefty could be a valuable reliever in the near future. 18th rounder Jacob Rhinesmith, an outfielder out of Western Kentucky who slashed .306/.383/.555 with 14 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio. He has an intriguing combination of power and speed, and when that's combined with the potential ability to play center field, it's a potential fourth outfielder in the 18th round. 37th rounder Cole Wilcox is a first round talent who slid due to signability, and he will head to Georgia rather than sign here. He's still worth writing about as a guy who could be an immediate contributor in the Bulldog rotation as a 6'5" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball, a good slider, and a good changeup, all of which he can command. He had been kicking it into another gear as the draft approached and could be a first round pick in 2021.