With all my draft reviews complete and college baseball players beginning to trickle back to campus, let's take a look at the top unsigned 2019 high school draftees who will be making their new head coaches very happy. I wrote on this subject prior to the 2018 season, which included guys like UCLA's Garrett Mitchell (.349/.418/.566), UNC-Wilmington's Greg Jones (.341/.491/.543), Florida's Brady McConnell (.332/.385/.576), Auburn's Tanner Burns (2.82 ERA, 101/23 K/BB), and Texas A&M's Asa Lacy (2.13 ERA, 130/43 K/BB), who were phenomenal in 2019. I didn't write one for the 2019 season, but that list would have included Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker (3.25 ERA, 114/25 K/BB) and Mississippi State's JT Ginn (3.13 ERA, 105/19 K/BB), who have already made huge impacts on their respective programs as freshmen. Quite a few top 2019 high schoolers went unsigned in 2019, so let's see who the top freshman prospects (based on major league projection) will be come next spring.
All draft ranks are based on my 2019 draft rankings, which include both college and high school players and which are intended to project impact at the major league level, not necessarily at the collegiate level.
1. RHP Jack Leiter (Vanderbilt). 2019 draft rank: #31 (#10 High School)
Last year, Vanderbilt landed my #19 draft prospect in Kumar Rocker, who ranked just behind #18 Cole Wilcox (Georgia) as the second best prospect on my list to reach college, but he's certainly surpassed Wilcox now. This year, Vanderbilt will again land a truly elite pitcher in Jack Leiter, the son of former MLB pitcher Al Leiter. However, while Rocker is a big man with a big arm and big stuff, Leiter is a smaller kid with solid stuff who is much more about pitchability than flashiness. Jack, who comes from Northern New Jersey where he was high school teammates with Yankees 2019 first rounder and fellow Vanderbilt commit Anthony Volpe, stands 6'1" and only sits in the low 90's with his fastball, without too much projection for more velocity. He excels everywhere else in his game, as he adds a plus curveball which will be an immediate weapon for retiring SEC hitters, a slider that gets its share of swings and misses, and an advanced changeup for a high school arm. Leiter also commands and mixes everything very well, keeping hitters off balance. Together, Leiter's skill set should help him make an immediate impact and join Vanderbilt's rotation right away, especially after they lost Drake Fellows and Patrick Raby to the draft. However, Leiter is very old for an incoming freshman and turned 19 back in April, so he will be draft eligible in 2021 and may only stay in Nashville for two seasons. Still, Leiter and Rocker will give Vanderbilt a great pair of young arms to watch in that Commodore rotation until they both end up as likely first round picks in 2021.
2. LHP Hunter Barco (Florida). 2019 draft rank: #33 (#13 HS)
Though they lost Riley Greene (#3 HS), the best pure prep hitter in the country, and Matthew Allan (#5 HS), arguably the best prep pitcher in the country, to the Tigers and Mets, respectively, Florida was at least able to land a first round-caliber pitching prospect in Hunter Barco. The Jacksonville native was actually considered an early, early candidate for the 2019 first overall pick during his junior year of high school, but he failed to live up to those expectations during the summer and then this past spring. Still, as a 6'4" lefty who could hit the mid 90's with his fastball, he garnered significant interest and may have gone as high as the first round if his asking price was lower. Barco has been very inconsistent, but when he's at his best, he can sit in the low 90's with his running fastball, add a swing and miss slider, and miss bats with a good splitter. Add in his projectable frame, and he could be sitting in the mid 90's by the time the 2022 draft rolls around. However, with his low three quarters arm slot, he often loses his mechanics, which can cause his secondary pitches to flatten out and also impact his command. Barco's impact might not be as immediate as Leiter's, but with some coaching from the program which has produced a ton of top pitching prospects as of late (including Brady Singer, A.J. Puk, Alex Faedo, Logan Shore, and Shaun Anderson), he could have a higher ceiling.
3. OF Maurice Hampton (Louisiana State). 2019 draft rank: #39 (#15 HS)
Head baseball coach Paul Mainieri will be very happy to see Maurice Hampton on campus, but head football coach Ed Orgeron might be just as excited. The Memphis kid is a legitimate two-sport star who will play both sports in Baton Rouge, manning the outfield on the baseball diamond and the cornerback position on the gridiron. As you might expect, he's an exceptional athlete whose speed is currently his best asset but who also has the physical tools to develop into an all-around player. He generates some power from his quick swing, and he did a fairly good job of getting to it consistently in high school. He's also a very good defender who should stick in center field, and because he didn't turn 18 until August, he's very young for an incoming freshman. Hampton's game is raw, and with his attention continuing to be split between two sports, he won't have as much of a chance to grow as a player as maybe some other guys, but LSU cranks out outfielders (see Mikie Mahtook, Andrew Stevenson, Jake Fraley, Greg Deichmann, Antoine Duplantis) and he does have youth on his side. If he ever decides to focus exclusively on baseball, Hampton has five tool upside.
4. SS Brooks Lee (Cal Poly). 2019 draft rank: #41 (#16 HS)
The top three prospects are going to SEC powers Vanderbilt, Florida, and Louisiana State, which isn't all that surprising considering the success those three schools have had. However, our #4 guy will be headed across town from his home in San Luis Obispo to Cal Poly, where he'll play for a familiar head coach – his father Larry. The younger Lee has a very advanced feel for the game and, especially given Cal Poly's status as a mid-major program, should make an immediate impact once he steps on campus. His swing isn't the most mechanically-sound, in fact it's pretty choppy, but he has excellent feel for the barrel and has proven he can catch up to high velocity and quality stuff on the showcase circuit. He's not the fastest kid in the world, but he should be able to post high on-base percentages right away in the Big West and could find himself leading off fairly early on. He doesn't hit for a ton of power, but mechanical changes could help him get to it a little bit more. Defensively, he again plays above his tools, making all the plays cleanly at shortstop, and he should stick there throughout his college career. Once he turns pro, he may slide over to second base, but that won't be an issue until he's draft eligible in 2022.
5. RHP Bryce Osmond (Oklahoma State). 2019 rank: #53 (#25 HS)
The top prospect in the state of Oklahoma at either the high school or the college level, Bryce Osmond will make it to campus at Oklahoma State as one of the best recruits they've landed in a while. The Tulsa-area native is an athletic, projectable kid at 6'3" who can sit in the low 90's with his fastball at times while adding a good slider and commanding it fairly well. He's skinny at this point and will need to add some weight through the Cowboys' conditioning program, and that will help him maintain his velocity deeper into his starts. Osmond probably won't light the world on fire as a freshman in 2020, but if he gets more physical out in Stillwater, his quick arm could help him rise to the top of the Oklahoma State rotation and make him an early pick in the 2022 draft.
6. 1B/LHP Spencer Jones (Vanderbilt). 2019 rank: #59 (#27 HS)
Make that two big wins for Vanderbilt's incoming freshman class, as Jack Leiter will be the top incoming freshman (in terms of major league projection) in the country but Spencer Jones might have one of the highest ceilings. The San Diego native had a chance at being picked in the first round this year, but an elbow injury held him out for most of the spring and with his stock slipping, he decided to head across the country for school. Jones is a two-way player who is raw on both sides of the ball but shows tremendous upside with both. At 6'7", he has plenty of room to add good weight, and he's athletic for his size. On the mound, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and shows a good curveball with depth, and he could easily get into the mid 90's once he adds weight and focuses on pitching alone. However, his bat is too good to pass up for now, as he shows plus raw power from the left side and can get to it consistently. He's limited to first base defensively, but with that pitcher's arm, he does provide some positive value there. Jones is all projection at this point and might not play much as a freshman, but Vanderbilt is hoping they have the second incarnation of former Louisville Cardinal and current Tampa Bay Ray Brendan McKay at this point.
7. OF Jerrion Ealy (Ole Miss). 2019 rank: #65 (#29 HS)
This is a similar story to LSU's Maurice Hampton. Not only will Ole Miss head baseball coach Mike Bianco be happy to see Jerrion Ealy on campus this fall, but so will head football coach Matt Luke. Hampton may be the slightly better baseball prospect, but Ealy is actually the better football prospect as a five star running back recruit (topping Hampton's four star rating) who could be NFL bound with some luck. However, we're hear to talk about baseball. Ealy entered the spring a potential first round pick, but a lackluster senior season dropped him to more of a second round projection and he instead will play both sports for the Rebels. He's only 5'10", but as you would expect for a short SEC running back, he's built like a tank and his exceptional speed is his best tool. A good defender in center field, his power is his calling card at the plate despite his size, though he struggled to get to it against mediocre Jackson, Mississippi-area pitching this spring. Ealy's mechanics broke down a bit and he got choppy with his swing a lot, so getting back to himself in the box and adding some loft will do him a lot of good. Focusing on baseball exclusively would help that, but he may never do that.
8. 3B Cade Doughty (Louisiana State). 2019 rank: #81 (#34 HS)
Unlike some of the guys ahead of him on this list, Cade Doughty could produce for LSU on day one. Doughty is an advanced player with good feel for the barrel at the plate, and at 6'1" he should begin to add power as he incorporates loft into his swing more consistently. Together, that makes him an impact hitter, especially at the college level, and that feel for the barrel should make him a productive hitter even if the power doesn't kick in immediately. He's also a good defender over at third base, so he'll provide value on both sides of the ball. The Baton Rouge-area native isn't the type of player that takes off in college and turns himself into a top ten pick, but he's a pretty safe bet to produce at a high level for three years before heading off to the draft in 2022.
9. RHP Brett Thomas (South Carolina). 2019 rank: #84 (#36 HS)
South Carolina lost its top recruit in Tyler Callihan (#14 HS) to the Reds, but they landed the fifth best incoming freshman pitcher in the country in Brett Thomas. The Gamecocks recently produced three top pitchers in Clarke Schmidt (17th overall, Yankees), Wil Crowe (65th, Nationals), and Tyler Johnson (147th, White Sox) in the same 2017 draft, and Thomas will hope to be the next in line. The Atlanta-area kid is already advanced and, assuming health, should slot right into the Gamecocks' rotation immediately. Physically developed at 6'5", he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a hard curve from an overhand delivery, and he commands everything fairly well for a pitcher his age. However, he also missed time this spring with elbow issues, but he proved he was healthy later in the spring and hit the mid 90's with his fastball. Between his size, stuff, and command, he's an ideal pitcher for the SEC, and he'll just have to stay healthy to be a high pick in 2022.
10. UT/RHP Trey Faltine (Texas). 2019 rank: #85 (#37 HS)
The Texas Longhorns have landed perhaps the most versatile player in the incoming freshman class. Not only can he pitch and hit, but he can actually play anywhere on the diamond except for catcher. The Houston-area native, who is also regularly listed as Sammy Faltine, is an athletic 6'3" kid with exceptional feel for the game. At the plate, he has a quick bat and a line drive swing that enables him to spray line drives around the field against quality pitching, and there is some power projection in there once he gets stronger. Defensively, he can handle shortstop, center field, and everything in between, more due to his competency for the game than because of big time tools. This means two things; in college, he should be able to break into the starting lineup pretty quickly due to his advanced bat and his ability to play anywhere, but in pro ball, he might not be quite fast enough for center field or shortstop. Three years of development in Austin could give us a clearer picture. Now on the other side, he's a fine pitcher who should crack the Longhorn starting rotation, if not as a freshman then as a sophomore. He only sits around 90 with his fastball but he commands it well, and he adds three good secondaries in a curve, slider, and changeup, all of which could be above average in time. Three years in Austin will do him good not only to pick a position, but pick whether he wants to pitch or it, and he could take a big step forward from there.
Others: #87 Riley Cornelio (Texas Christian, #38 HS), #89 Chris Newell (Virginia, #39 HS), #94 Will Rigney (Baylor, #40 HS), #101 Jonathan French (Clemson, #42 HS), #110 Hayden Dunhurst (Ole Miss, #44 HS)
Thursday, August 15, 2019
Saturday, August 3, 2019
2019 Draft Review Index
In-depth draft reviews for all thirty teams. Most notable players listed next to link. Keep in mind the publish dates when reading stats/signing status.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Blake Walston, Brennan Malone, Drey Jameson
Atlanta Braves: Shea Langeliers, Braden Shewmake
Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers, Zach Watson
Boston Red Sox: Cameron Cannon, Matthew Lugo, Ryan Zeferjahn, Noah Song
Chicago Cubs: Ryan Jensen, Chase Strumpf, Ethan Hearn
Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan
Cleveland Indians: Daniel Espino, Yordys Valdes, Christian Cairo
Colorado Rockies: Michael Toglia, Aaron Schunk, Karl Kauffman
Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene, Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, Bryant Packard
Houston Astros: Korey Lee, Grae Kessinger, Jordan Brewer
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., Brady McConnell, Alec Marsh
Los Angeles Angels: Will Wilson, Kyren Paris, Jack Kochanowicz
Los Angeles Dodgers: Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Jimmy Lewis, Ryan Pepiot
Miami Marlins: JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Nasim Nunez, Evan Fitterer
Milwaukee Brewers: Ethan Small, Antoine Kelly, Thomas Dillard
Minnesota Twins: Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner, Matt Canterino
New York Mets: Brett Baty, Josh Wolf, Matthew Allan, Jake Mangum
New York Yankees: Anthony Volpe, TJ Sikkema, Josh Smith, Jake Sanford
Oakland Athletics: Logan Davidson, Tyler Baum, Kyle McCann
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryson Stott, Erik Miller, Gunner Mayer
Pittsburgh Pirates: Quinn Priester, Sammy Siani
San Diego Padres: CJ Abrams, Joshua Mears, Hudson Head
San Francisco Giants: Hunter Bishop, Logan Wyatt
Seattle Mariners: George Kirby, Brandon Williamson, Isaiah Campbell, Austin Shenton
St. Louis Cardinals: Zack Thompson, Trejyn Fletcher, Andre Pallante, Jack Ralston
Tampa Bay Rays: Greg Jones, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson, John Doxakis
Texas Rangers: Josh Jung, Davis Wendzel, Ryan Garcia
Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, Kendall Williams, Dasan Brown
Washington Nationals: Jackson Rutledge, Drew Mendoza, Matt Cronin
Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Carroll, Blake Walston, Brennan Malone, Drey Jameson
Atlanta Braves: Shea Langeliers, Braden Shewmake
Baltimore Orioles: Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Stowers, Zach Watson
Boston Red Sox: Cameron Cannon, Matthew Lugo, Ryan Zeferjahn, Noah Song
Chicago Cubs: Ryan Jensen, Chase Strumpf, Ethan Hearn
Chicago White Sox: Andrew Vaughn, Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Lodolo, Rece Hinds, Tyler Callihan
Cleveland Indians: Daniel Espino, Yordys Valdes, Christian Cairo
Colorado Rockies: Michael Toglia, Aaron Schunk, Karl Kauffman
Detroit Tigers: Riley Greene, Nick Quintana, Andre Lipcius, Bryant Packard
Houston Astros: Korey Lee, Grae Kessinger, Jordan Brewer
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr., Brady McConnell, Alec Marsh
Los Angeles Angels: Will Wilson, Kyren Paris, Jack Kochanowicz
Los Angeles Dodgers: Kody Hoese, Michael Busch, Jimmy Lewis, Ryan Pepiot
Miami Marlins: JJ Bleday, Kameron Misner, Nasim Nunez, Evan Fitterer
Milwaukee Brewers: Ethan Small, Antoine Kelly, Thomas Dillard
Minnesota Twins: Keoni Cavaco, Matt Wallner, Matt Canterino
New York Mets: Brett Baty, Josh Wolf, Matthew Allan, Jake Mangum
New York Yankees: Anthony Volpe, TJ Sikkema, Josh Smith, Jake Sanford
Oakland Athletics: Logan Davidson, Tyler Baum, Kyle McCann
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryson Stott, Erik Miller, Gunner Mayer
Pittsburgh Pirates: Quinn Priester, Sammy Siani
San Diego Padres: CJ Abrams, Joshua Mears, Hudson Head
San Francisco Giants: Hunter Bishop, Logan Wyatt
Seattle Mariners: George Kirby, Brandon Williamson, Isaiah Campbell, Austin Shenton
St. Louis Cardinals: Zack Thompson, Trejyn Fletcher, Andre Pallante, Jack Ralston
Tampa Bay Rays: Greg Jones, JJ Goss, Seth Johnson, John Doxakis
Texas Rangers: Josh Jung, Davis Wendzel, Ryan Garcia
Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, Kendall Williams, Dasan Brown
Washington Nationals: Jackson Rutledge, Drew Mendoza, Matt Cronin
2019 Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles
First five rounds: Adley Rutschman (1-1), Gunnar Henderson (2-42), Kyle Stowers (CBB-71), Zach Watson (3-79), Joey Ortiz (4-108), Darell Hernaiz (5-138)
Also notable: Maverick Handley (6-168), Andrew Daschbach (11-318), Dan Hammer (13-378)
Obviously, this draft is going to be headlined by Adley Rutschman, possibly the best college catching prospect ever, or at the very least since Florida State's Buster Posey in 2008. For those who remember the Matt Wieters hype, Rutschman is easily better at the same stage of his career and should be a future All Star with power, high on-base percentages, great defense, and leadership. Moving past Rutschman, though, there's a lot to like elsewhere in this draft. Gunnar Henderson provides a ton of upside and guys like Kyle Stowers, Zach Watson, and Dan Hammer seem like they could take a big step forward with pro coaching. It was also a Stanford-themed draft, as the Orioles took Stanford position players in the second Competitive Balance round, the sixth round, and the eleventh round.
1-1: C Adley Rutschman (Oregon State, my rank: 1)
Adley Rutschman is not short on praise, and it's well deserved as one of the best draft prospects of the decade, perhaps the best since Bryce Harper in 2010. Simply put, he's the complete package as a player. The Portland-area native slashed just .234/.322/.306 as a freshman at Oregon State in 2017, then put himself firmly into the first overall conversation after a huge sophomore year where he slashed .408/.505/.628 as a sophomore. Somehow, he got even better in 2019, finishing with a .411/.575/.751 line, 17 home runs, and a 38/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Despite going through the rigors of catching and playing in a tough Pac-12 conference, Rutschman led all college baseball players in on-base percentage (.575), OPS (1.326), and walks (76) while finishing fifth in batting average (.411) and sixth in slugging percentage (.751). As you might figure from those stats, he has an excellent feel for hitting between great plate discipline (28.6% walk rate, 14.3% strikeout rate) and great feel for the barrel, and that helps him get to his plus power very consistently. Defensively, he's a superb catcher with both a strong arm and a great glove, and he comes with all of the desired leadership skills you look for in a catcher. Together, that helps Rutschman project for 30 or more home runs per season with high on-base percentages and borderline Gold Glove defense, or as some would call it, "MVP caliber." He draws a lot of comparisons to Buster Posey, which is natural given that Posey was the game's most recent elite catcher, though Rutschman looks to have more power. No pressure or anything, Adley, but the expectations are sky high. He'll inevitably have his ups and downs working through the minors and breaking into the majors, but given his power, competency for hitting, defense, and work ethic, it's hard to see him becoming anything but a star. He signed for a record $8.1 million, which was still $320,000 below slot, and he's slashing .176/.282/.294 with a home run and a 4/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Aberdeen.
2-42: SS Gunnar Henderson (Morgan Academy [AL], my rank: 25)
After saving money on Rutschman, the Orioles dipped into the high school ranks to spend that extra money on Gunnar Henderson. Henderson hails from Selma, Alabama, and you don't see too many players from these small towns in the Deep South get drafted this high out of high school. Henderson is the exception, having been a late riser on many boards with a great senior year at John T. Morgan Academy, and while he's still raw, he's improved considerably as of late. He's 6'3" and is very athletic, which helps him on both sides of the ball, and he has shown both power and feel for the barrel this spring. He has a quick bat solid raw power, and he has been getting to it more frequently, albeit against mediocre competition in Central Alabama. He's also getting it figured out defensively, with his strong arm and athleticism making him a virtual lock to stay on the left side of the infield, possibly at shortstop if he can refine his game a little bit, but if not, definitely at third base. He also didn't turn 18 until June, and he has the upside to hit 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and good defense. However, unlike Rutschman, he will need a lot of time to develop and probably won't move through the minors very quickly at all. Committed to Auburn, he instead signed for $2.3 million, which was $530,000 above slot, and he's slashing .240/.339/.280 with a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Gulf Coast League.
CBB-71: OF Kyle Stowers (Stanford, my rank: 67)
Kyle Stowers is a bit of a polarizing player because of the way his numbers have fluctuated, but I think pro coaching can really help him. The San Diego-area native showed power from an aggressive approach when he slashed .286/.383/.512 as a sophomore at Stanford in 2018, but that approach didn't hurt him when he went on to the elite Cape Cod League and slashed .326/.361/.565 with six home runs and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games there that summer. Then in 2019, he was a different player; this year, he slashed .303/.369/.523 with nine home runs and a 31/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in a lineup that also included 2019 Orioles draft picks Maverick Handley (6th round) and Andrew Daschbach (11th round). Stowers' strikeout rate dropped from 20.4% as a sophomore to 12.4% as a junior, while his walk rate also dropped a little from 12.5% to 9.6%. His swing is more direct this year, which has helped his strikeout rates, and he generates good power from his 6'3" frame and whippy swing. However, I think he could actually tap into it even more once he gets to working with Orioles minor league hitting coaches, and he could eventually profile for 20-30 home runs annually if things break right. While he improved his contact rates this year, it will still be something to follow as he works his way through pro ball. Additionally, he's an aggressive hitter and will probably never post high on-base percentages, so most of his value will be tied to that power, even if he hits for high averages. Defensively, he holds his own in the outfield but is nothing special. Stowers signed at slot for $884,200, and he's slashing .231/.294/.352 with a home run and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games with Aberdeen.
3-79: OF Zach Watson (Louisiana State, my rank: 91)
Zach Watson could have gone in the top 100 picks as a draft eligible sophomore last year, where he slashed .308/.366/.479 for LSU and ranked 75th on my 2018 draft list, but he (along with Zack Hess) opted to return to Baton Rouge for his junior season. It turned out to be much of the same, as he slashed a nearly identical .308/.378/.468 with seven home runs and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. The Ruston, Louisiana native is a very consistent hitter who has proven himself against tough SEC pitching, and he also slashed .382/.450/.500 in a brief, ten game run through the Cape Cod League, so there's no question about his feel for the barrel. Watson is extremely skinny, listed at six feet and 160 pounds, and he uses that barrel to spray hard line drives around the field. Despite his slight stature, there might actually be some power projection in there just because he hits the ball so darn hard, and additional loft in his swing could help him hit 15 home runs per season. While he does have that coveted feel for the barrel, one important issue to address early in his pro career will be his plate discipline, which is average for now. Watson can also fly on the bases and in the outfield, where he lacks a big arm but is overall an above average defender. Overall, he looks like a fourth outfielder at first glance, but he's the kind of guy that could take off with pro coaching and end up an everyday center fielder. He is very old for his class, having turned 22 in June, so that's one knock. Watson signed at slot for $780,400, and he's slashing .247/.316/.494 with five home runs, five stolen bases, and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games between Aberdeen and Class A Delmarva.
4-108: SS Joey Ortiz (New Mexico State, unranked)
I mentioned in Adley Rutschman's paragraph that he had the fifth highest batting average in college baseball at .411 this year. Well, Joey Ortiz ranked third at .422. While New Mexico State a) is an extremely hitter-friendly environment and b) doesn't face the same competition in the Western Athletic Conference that Oregon State sees in the Pac-12, ranking ahead of Rutschman in anything is pretty darn impressive, especially when you're third best in the country (albeit second on your own team behind Nick Gonzales' NCAA-leading .432). Ortiz' huge breakout year overall saw him slash .422/.474/.697 with eight home runs and a 26/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, though it was a little inflated in that Coors Field-like environment in Las Cruces. The Los Angeles-area native has great feel for the barrel and should continue to hit for a high average in pro ball, though he'll need to get more patient at the plate if he wants to post high on-base percentages as well. Though he hit eight home runs at New Mexico State this year, he'll probably be more of a singles and doubles hitter in pro ball at 5'11" and with an all-fields approach. With very competent defense at shortstop, his profile screams utility infielder down the line. On the plus side, he's more than a year younger than Zach Watson and didn't turn 21 until July. He signed for for $450,000, which was $88,200 below slot, and he's slashing .241/.315/.286 with a home run and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games at Aberdeen.
5-138: SS Darell Hernaiz (Americas HS [TX], unranked)
Just 50 miles down the road from New Mexico State's campus in Las Cruces, the Orioles found another shortstop in El Paso high schooler Darell Hernaiz. He's a very athletic kid with high upside, but he has a long way to go developmentally. He's got some power but hasn't fully tapped into it yet, with room to grow in his 6'1" frame. He's also solid defensively but may not be able to stick at shortstop. Really, it's hard to project him at this point, especially because I'm writing this article on his 18th birthday two months after the draft, but his athleticism and strength should help him on both sides of the ball through what should be a long development path. Committed to Texas Tech, he signed for $400,000, which was $2,000 below slot, and he's slashing .213/.373/.298 with a home run and a 15/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in the Gulf Coast League.
6-168: C Maverick Handley (Stanford, unranked)
The Orioles picked up Kyle Stowers in the second Competitive Balance Round, and almost a hundred picks later, they grabbed his teammate, Maverick Handley. The man with the 80 grade baseball name slashed .290/.393/.442 with five home runs and a 39/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, but it's really his defense and feel for the game that the Orioles are buying as he will inevitably have a tough time starting considering who they took first overall. The Denver native has great plate discipline that helps him get his pitch and do enough damage to remain viable with the bat, but at a stocky 5'11", he lacks much power and projects as a low-impact hitter overall. Defensively, he gets the job done and then some, as he is a lock to stick behind the plate both with his glove and with his leadership skills. Ultimately, he projects as Rutschman's backup down the line, and the Adley Rutschman/Maverick Handley combination might have the coolest pair of names ever for any pair of major league catchers on the same team. He signed for $250,000, which was $51,600 below slot, and he's slashing .218/.338/.273 with a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games at Aberdeen.
11-318: 1B Andrew Daschbach (Stanford, unranked)
Make that three Stanford hitters in the first eleven rounds for the Orioles. However, Andrew Daschbach is perhaps the polar opposite to Maverick Handley as a player. The Silicon Valley native is a pure masher, and he slashed .289/.382/.602 with 17 home runs and a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for Stanford this year. That big season was highlighted by a four homer performance against Cal Poly on May 14th, and he also slashed a strong .306/.424/.515 with five home runs and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games on the Cape. At 6'3" and 225 pounds, he's plenty strong enough to blast balls out of any park, and he has gotten to that power consistently against quality pitching. However, his plate discipline is only so-so, with a 21.7% strikeout rate and just a 10% walk rate, so it's fully a power-only profile. There's not too much projection, but he could hit 20 home runs annually if he gets to the majors and tightens his control of the strike zone. Defensively, he's limited to first base and could end up a DH long term, so all of the pressure will be on his power. He signed for $250,000, which counted for $125,000 against the Orioles' bonus pool, and he's slashing .227/.370/.333 with one home run and an 18/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Aberdeen, where he once again shares the lineup with Handley and Kyle Stowers.
13-378: RHP Dan Hammer (Pittsburgh, unranked)
Between Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Maverick Handley, and now Dan Hammer, the Orioles really are stocking up on the cool names. Hammer comes from Pitt, where he has never quite put it together despite strikeout stuff. The Philadelphia native posted a 6.55 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and an 80/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings for the Panthers this year, but he was much better on the Cape last summer, where his ERA was just 2.16 and he struck out 20 batters to five walks in 25 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid breaking ball and changeup, but his stuff hasn't been consistent and he has gotten hit hard when he fell behind in the count. The Orioles will work to get him more consistent with everything in the hopes of getting a #4 starter, though shifting him to the bullpen could help him take a big step forward. Hammer signed for $150,000, which counts for $25,000 against the bonus pool, and he has a 1.17 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 19/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at Aberdeen.
Also notable: Maverick Handley (6-168), Andrew Daschbach (11-318), Dan Hammer (13-378)
Obviously, this draft is going to be headlined by Adley Rutschman, possibly the best college catching prospect ever, or at the very least since Florida State's Buster Posey in 2008. For those who remember the Matt Wieters hype, Rutschman is easily better at the same stage of his career and should be a future All Star with power, high on-base percentages, great defense, and leadership. Moving past Rutschman, though, there's a lot to like elsewhere in this draft. Gunnar Henderson provides a ton of upside and guys like Kyle Stowers, Zach Watson, and Dan Hammer seem like they could take a big step forward with pro coaching. It was also a Stanford-themed draft, as the Orioles took Stanford position players in the second Competitive Balance round, the sixth round, and the eleventh round.
1-1: C Adley Rutschman (Oregon State, my rank: 1)
Adley Rutschman is not short on praise, and it's well deserved as one of the best draft prospects of the decade, perhaps the best since Bryce Harper in 2010. Simply put, he's the complete package as a player. The Portland-area native slashed just .234/.322/.306 as a freshman at Oregon State in 2017, then put himself firmly into the first overall conversation after a huge sophomore year where he slashed .408/.505/.628 as a sophomore. Somehow, he got even better in 2019, finishing with a .411/.575/.751 line, 17 home runs, and a 38/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games. Despite going through the rigors of catching and playing in a tough Pac-12 conference, Rutschman led all college baseball players in on-base percentage (.575), OPS (1.326), and walks (76) while finishing fifth in batting average (.411) and sixth in slugging percentage (.751). As you might figure from those stats, he has an excellent feel for hitting between great plate discipline (28.6% walk rate, 14.3% strikeout rate) and great feel for the barrel, and that helps him get to his plus power very consistently. Defensively, he's a superb catcher with both a strong arm and a great glove, and he comes with all of the desired leadership skills you look for in a catcher. Together, that helps Rutschman project for 30 or more home runs per season with high on-base percentages and borderline Gold Glove defense, or as some would call it, "MVP caliber." He draws a lot of comparisons to Buster Posey, which is natural given that Posey was the game's most recent elite catcher, though Rutschman looks to have more power. No pressure or anything, Adley, but the expectations are sky high. He'll inevitably have his ups and downs working through the minors and breaking into the majors, but given his power, competency for hitting, defense, and work ethic, it's hard to see him becoming anything but a star. He signed for a record $8.1 million, which was still $320,000 below slot, and he's slashing .176/.282/.294 with a home run and a 4/5 strikeout to walk ratio over ten games between the complex level Gulf Coast League and short season Aberdeen.
2-42: SS Gunnar Henderson (Morgan Academy [AL], my rank: 25)
After saving money on Rutschman, the Orioles dipped into the high school ranks to spend that extra money on Gunnar Henderson. Henderson hails from Selma, Alabama, and you don't see too many players from these small towns in the Deep South get drafted this high out of high school. Henderson is the exception, having been a late riser on many boards with a great senior year at John T. Morgan Academy, and while he's still raw, he's improved considerably as of late. He's 6'3" and is very athletic, which helps him on both sides of the ball, and he has shown both power and feel for the barrel this spring. He has a quick bat solid raw power, and he has been getting to it more frequently, albeit against mediocre competition in Central Alabama. He's also getting it figured out defensively, with his strong arm and athleticism making him a virtual lock to stay on the left side of the infield, possibly at shortstop if he can refine his game a little bit, but if not, definitely at third base. He also didn't turn 18 until June, and he has the upside to hit 20-30 home runs per season with good on-base percentages and good defense. However, unlike Rutschman, he will need a lot of time to develop and probably won't move through the minors very quickly at all. Committed to Auburn, he instead signed for $2.3 million, which was $530,000 above slot, and he's slashing .240/.339/.280 with a 15/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 games in the Gulf Coast League.
CBB-71: OF Kyle Stowers (Stanford, my rank: 67)
Kyle Stowers is a bit of a polarizing player because of the way his numbers have fluctuated, but I think pro coaching can really help him. The San Diego-area native showed power from an aggressive approach when he slashed .286/.383/.512 as a sophomore at Stanford in 2018, but that approach didn't hurt him when he went on to the elite Cape Cod League and slashed .326/.361/.565 with six home runs and a 34/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games there that summer. Then in 2019, he was a different player; this year, he slashed .303/.369/.523 with nine home runs and a 31/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games in a lineup that also included 2019 Orioles draft picks Maverick Handley (6th round) and Andrew Daschbach (11th round). Stowers' strikeout rate dropped from 20.4% as a sophomore to 12.4% as a junior, while his walk rate also dropped a little from 12.5% to 9.6%. His swing is more direct this year, which has helped his strikeout rates, and he generates good power from his 6'3" frame and whippy swing. However, I think he could actually tap into it even more once he gets to working with Orioles minor league hitting coaches, and he could eventually profile for 20-30 home runs annually if things break right. While he improved his contact rates this year, it will still be something to follow as he works his way through pro ball. Additionally, he's an aggressive hitter and will probably never post high on-base percentages, so most of his value will be tied to that power, even if he hits for high averages. Defensively, he holds his own in the outfield but is nothing special. Stowers signed at slot for $884,200, and he's slashing .231/.294/.352 with a home run and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games with Aberdeen.
3-79: OF Zach Watson (Louisiana State, my rank: 91)
Zach Watson could have gone in the top 100 picks as a draft eligible sophomore last year, where he slashed .308/.366/.479 for LSU and ranked 75th on my 2018 draft list, but he (along with Zack Hess) opted to return to Baton Rouge for his junior season. It turned out to be much of the same, as he slashed a nearly identical .308/.378/.468 with seven home runs and a 47/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games. The Ruston, Louisiana native is a very consistent hitter who has proven himself against tough SEC pitching, and he also slashed .382/.450/.500 in a brief, ten game run through the Cape Cod League, so there's no question about his feel for the barrel. Watson is extremely skinny, listed at six feet and 160 pounds, and he uses that barrel to spray hard line drives around the field. Despite his slight stature, there might actually be some power projection in there just because he hits the ball so darn hard, and additional loft in his swing could help him hit 15 home runs per season. While he does have that coveted feel for the barrel, one important issue to address early in his pro career will be his plate discipline, which is average for now. Watson can also fly on the bases and in the outfield, where he lacks a big arm but is overall an above average defender. Overall, he looks like a fourth outfielder at first glance, but he's the kind of guy that could take off with pro coaching and end up an everyday center fielder. He is very old for his class, having turned 22 in June, so that's one knock. Watson signed at slot for $780,400, and he's slashing .247/.316/.494 with five home runs, five stolen bases, and a 24/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games between Aberdeen and Class A Delmarva.
4-108: SS Joey Ortiz (New Mexico State, unranked)
I mentioned in Adley Rutschman's paragraph that he had the fifth highest batting average in college baseball at .411 this year. Well, Joey Ortiz ranked third at .422. While New Mexico State a) is an extremely hitter-friendly environment and b) doesn't face the same competition in the Western Athletic Conference that Oregon State sees in the Pac-12, ranking ahead of Rutschman in anything is pretty darn impressive, especially when you're third best in the country (albeit second on your own team behind Nick Gonzales' NCAA-leading .432). Ortiz' huge breakout year overall saw him slash .422/.474/.697 with eight home runs and a 26/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, though it was a little inflated in that Coors Field-like environment in Las Cruces. The Los Angeles-area native has great feel for the barrel and should continue to hit for a high average in pro ball, though he'll need to get more patient at the plate if he wants to post high on-base percentages as well. Though he hit eight home runs at New Mexico State this year, he'll probably be more of a singles and doubles hitter in pro ball at 5'11" and with an all-fields approach. With very competent defense at shortstop, his profile screams utility infielder down the line. On the plus side, he's more than a year younger than Zach Watson and didn't turn 21 until July. He signed for for $450,000, which was $88,200 below slot, and he's slashing .241/.315/.286 with a home run and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 games at Aberdeen.
5-138: SS Darell Hernaiz (Americas HS [TX], unranked)
Just 50 miles down the road from New Mexico State's campus in Las Cruces, the Orioles found another shortstop in El Paso high schooler Darell Hernaiz. He's a very athletic kid with high upside, but he has a long way to go developmentally. He's got some power but hasn't fully tapped into it yet, with room to grow in his 6'1" frame. He's also solid defensively but may not be able to stick at shortstop. Really, it's hard to project him at this point, especially because I'm writing this article on his 18th birthday two months after the draft, but his athleticism and strength should help him on both sides of the ball through what should be a long development path. Committed to Texas Tech, he signed for $400,000, which was $2,000 below slot, and he's slashing .213/.373/.298 with a home run and a 15/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in the Gulf Coast League.
6-168: C Maverick Handley (Stanford, unranked)
The Orioles picked up Kyle Stowers in the second Competitive Balance Round, and almost a hundred picks later, they grabbed his teammate, Maverick Handley. The man with the 80 grade baseball name slashed .290/.393/.442 with five home runs and a 39/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, but it's really his defense and feel for the game that the Orioles are buying as he will inevitably have a tough time starting considering who they took first overall. The Denver native has great plate discipline that helps him get his pitch and do enough damage to remain viable with the bat, but at a stocky 5'11", he lacks much power and projects as a low-impact hitter overall. Defensively, he gets the job done and then some, as he is a lock to stick behind the plate both with his glove and with his leadership skills. Ultimately, he projects as Rutschman's backup down the line, and the Adley Rutschman/Maverick Handley combination might have the coolest pair of names ever for any pair of major league catchers on the same team. He signed for $250,000, which was $51,600 below slot, and he's slashing .218/.338/.273 with a 24/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games at Aberdeen.
11-318: 1B Andrew Daschbach (Stanford, unranked)
Make that three Stanford hitters in the first eleven rounds for the Orioles. However, Andrew Daschbach is perhaps the polar opposite to Maverick Handley as a player. The Silicon Valley native is a pure masher, and he slashed .289/.382/.602 with 17 home runs and a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for Stanford this year. That big season was highlighted by a four homer performance against Cal Poly on May 14th, and he also slashed a strong .306/.424/.515 with five home runs and a 32/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games on the Cape. At 6'3" and 225 pounds, he's plenty strong enough to blast balls out of any park, and he has gotten to that power consistently against quality pitching. However, his plate discipline is only so-so, with a 21.7% strikeout rate and just a 10% walk rate, so it's fully a power-only profile. There's not too much projection, but he could hit 20 home runs annually if he gets to the majors and tightens his control of the strike zone. Defensively, he's limited to first base and could end up a DH long term, so all of the pressure will be on his power. He signed for $250,000, which counted for $125,000 against the Orioles' bonus pool, and he's slashing .227/.370/.333 with one home run and an 18/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games at Aberdeen, where he once again shares the lineup with Handley and Kyle Stowers.
13-378: RHP Dan Hammer (Pittsburgh, unranked)
Between Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Maverick Handley, and now Dan Hammer, the Orioles really are stocking up on the cool names. Hammer comes from Pitt, where he has never quite put it together despite strikeout stuff. The Philadelphia native posted a 6.55 ERA, a 1.85 WHIP, and an 80/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 innings for the Panthers this year, but he was much better on the Cape last summer, where his ERA was just 2.16 and he struck out 20 batters to five walks in 25 innings. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a solid breaking ball and changeup, but his stuff hasn't been consistent and he has gotten hit hard when he fell behind in the count. The Orioles will work to get him more consistent with everything in the hopes of getting a #4 starter, though shifting him to the bullpen could help him take a big step forward. Hammer signed for $150,000, which counts for $25,000 against the bonus pool, and he has a 1.17 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 19/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 15.1 innings at Aberdeen.
Friday, August 2, 2019
2019 Draft Review: Kansas City Royals
First five rounds: Bobby Witt Jr. (1-2), Brady McConnell (2-44), Alec Marsh (CBB-70), Grant Gambrell (3-80), Michael Massey (4-109), John Rave (5-139)
Also notable: Noah Murdock (7-199), Drew Parrish (8-229), Justin Hooper (14-409)
Obviously, this draft class is headlined by the uber-talented Bobby Witt Jr., perhaps the best all-around high school position player we've seen since at least Brendan Rodgers in 2015, if not Byron Buxton in 2012. Behind Witt, though, I see this class as fairly ordinary, as I'm not a huge fan of the Brady McConnell pick and most of the players after that are fairly unremarkable. It was a college-heavy draft for the Royals, as they selected 15 consecutive college players after Witt, mostly from big programs.
1-2: SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Colleyville Heritage HS [TX], my rank: 2)
Perhaps the worst-kept secret in the rumor mill heading up to the draft was that the Royals wanted Bobby Witt Jr. with their first pick. Witt is truly an elite talent, with an all around game that rivals some of the best prep hitters in recent memory. He was the top prep player in the class coming into the season, but in early incarnations of my draft list in the winter, I actually had him behind Andrew Vaughn because I just wasn't sold on his hit tool. Well, now I am. The DFW native and son of former big leaguer Bobby Witt is an impact player in all facets of the game, showing big power, much improved plate discipline and ability to make contact, plenty of speed, and exceptional defense at shortstop. He generates his power from a big swing that caused some minor swing and miss questions over the summer, but with his exceptional spring, that's less of an issue and he projects for about 30 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. That'll certainly play, especially when you're an elite defender at shortstop, and overall you could compare his game somewhat to Francisco Lindor. Additionally, he's reported to be a hard worker and very easily coachable. The only knock on Witt at this point is his age, as he turned 19 in June and is old for his class, but given all the other positives, that's hardly an issue. Committed to Oklahoma, he instead signed at slot for $7.79 million and is slashing .256/.301/.326 with six stolen bases and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-44: SS Brady McConnell (Florida, my rank: 71)
A draft-eligible sophomore because he turned 21 in May, Brady McConnell followed a similar path as his teammate and 2018 first rounder Jonathan India. India was a well-regarded high school prospect who instead made it to campus at Florida and hit mediocrely for two years before exploding for a .350/.497/.717 line as a junior and getting drafted fifth overall by the Reds. However, I wasn't quite that high on India, and with a .250/.351/.391 slash line in the minors this year, my thoughts haven't changed. Anyways, this paragraph is about Brady McConnell, who also was a well-regarded high school prospect coming out of Merritt Island on Florida's East Coast, and he ranked 58th on my 2017 list. After picking up just three hits as a freshman at UF in 2018, he exploded in India-like fashion by slashing .332/.385/.576 with 15 home runs and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for the Gators. Perhaps more impressively, 11 of his 15 home runs came in conference play against tough SEC arms, leading to a .299/.349/.615 slash line in those 30 games. However, like India, I'm not quite sold on McConnell at this draft position. He has power in his 6'3" frame and got to it consistently in 2019, drifting forward in his effective load before exploding with his smooth, whippy swing. On the flip side, his plate discipline this year was mediocre, as evidenced by a high 22.4% strikeout rate and a low 6.7% walk rate. If McConnell wants his production to carry over to pro ball, he'll have to get more patient at the plate and prove that he can find the barrel consistently against pro pitching. He's also only so-so at shortstop and will likely have to move over to second or third base, especially with Witt guaranteed to stay there. Together, that gives McConnell the upside of a power-hitting shortstop with 20-30 homer annual pop, though he has some questions to answer if he wants to get there. He signed for $2.22 million, which was $521,000 above slot, and he's slashing .250/.348/.475 with two home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls.
CBB-70: RHP Alec Marsh (Arizona State, my rank: 99)
Alec Marsh has gotten better each year at Arizona State, and this year he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 99/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. However, that ERA might be just a bit deceiving, as he was blown up for a combined 17 runs between his April 5th start against USC and his April 26th start against Washington. Taking out those two terrible starts, he was remarkably consistent and actually carried a 2.11 ERA. When things are working for the 6'2" righty, he's a reliable arm that fires low 90's fastballs, a couple of good breaking balls, and a solid changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. All together, Marsh does not bring the most eye-popping resume, either from his stats or his stuff, but his well-rounded skill set makes him an advanced arm for a kid who just turned 21 in May and should help him reach the majors as a #3 or #4 starter. Like Witt, he's seen as a hard worker who will get the most out of his ability, especially if the Royals can help him avoid those blow-ups. He signed for $904,300, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings for Idaho Falls.
3-80: RHP Grant Gambrell (Oregon State, my rank: 116)
Ten picks after nabbing Marsh, the Royals went back to the Pac-12 and grabbed another starting pitcher, this time from Oregon State. Grant Gambrell, with the luxury of throwing to first overall pick Adley Rutschman in Corvallis, had a breakthrough year on the mound and posted a 2.83 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 80/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings against much of the same competition that Marsh faced. The Fresno-area native is a big guy at 6'4", and he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a fairly promising slider, and a decent changeup. That slider has sharp break, but it also breaks early and could be easy to pick up, so he'll have to refine it a bit further in order to get the swings and misses he wants out of it. He's fairly inconsistent on the mound and throws with some effort, so despite the solid numbers, the Royals are really buying into his arm strength and are hoping they can turn him into something with pro refinement. He does throw strikes in general, but again, he's not there consistently yet. Consider Gambrell an upside play who could be a mid-rotation starter but who could also end up as a power reliever. He signed for $647,500, which was $120,300 below slot, and he has a 5.06 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings at Idaho Falls.
4-109: 2B Michael Massey (Illinois, unranked)
There's not much upside to be had here, but Michael Massey is about as steady as they come. The Chicago native slashed .330/.360/.483 as a freshman at Illinois then .326/.369/.514 as a sophomore, after which he slashed .280/.337/.366 with a home run and a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League. This year, Massey's numbers were down just a hair as he dealt with a back injury, but he still finished at .317/.372/.459 with five home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Standing an even six feet tall, Massey will never be much of a power hitter, instead relying on excellent bat to ball skills (13.4% strikeout rate) and good plate discipline to slap singles and doubles around the field. His feel for the game means he shouldn't have much trouble adjusting to pro pitching, though he likely won't hit enough to end up a full time starter in the majors. He's not the most athletic guy in the world, but he understands the game and plays hard and should be an above average defender at second base or playable on the left side of the infield. Overall, the gritty infielder with contact ability and baseball IQ points very clearly towards a utility infield role at the major league level, one which he should have little trouble getting to. He signed for $472,500, which was $60,500 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.309/.348 with a pair of home runs and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at rookie level Burlington.
5-139: OF John Rave (Illinois State, my rank: 138)
Two picks, two Illinois college position players. John Rave comes from Illinois State, but unlike his Prairie State counterpart, he's anything but steady. The Bloomington, Illinois native had a big sophomore year for the Redbirds in 2018, slashing .347/.402/.571, then he continued the hot hitting in the Cape Cod League and slashed .304/.392/.464 with four home runs and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. However, his numbers dropped this year as a junior, as he sold out for power and ended up slashing .297/.377/.502 with 12 home runs and a 64/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He can show average power when he swings for the fences, but he has historically hit better when he just focused on making hard contact and getting on base, and that's probably what the Royals will try to get him back to doing. His plate discipline is fringy, so pro ball may be a bit of an adjustment for him. Rave is also fringe-average in the outfield despite his well above average speed, so he'll need some refinement there as well. Overall, it's hard to project him, as he'll need more refinement than the typical college hitter, but the talent is clearly there because you don't put up an .856 OPS on the Cape by accident. He signed for $297,500, which was $100,500 below slot, and he's slashing .231/.342/.336 with two home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between Burlington and Class A Lexington.
7-199: RHP Noah Murdock (Virginia, unranked)
Noah Murdock was a well-known prospect coming out of high school in Colonial Heights, Virginia just south of Richmond as an ultra-projectable 6'7" string bean with a low 90's fastball, and he ranked #130 on my 2016 draft list because of it. However, he was raw and had a long way to go. Now even taller at 6'8" and with 2017 Tommy John surgery under his belt, he's still raw, and as a junior this year, he posted a disappointing 6.30 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 69/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings. He still sits in the low 90's and flashes a solid breaking ball, and the angle he creates with his long arms helps those pitches play up. However, he got hit when he left the ball over the plate and/or his breaking ball flattened out, and he'll need mechanical refinement in the minors. Fortunately for him and the Royals, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, giving him more time to develop into a potential big league starting pitcher or late inning reliever. He signed for $230,500, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 2.10 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 26/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings with Burlington.
8-229: LHP Drew Parrish (Florida State, unranked)
Drew Parrish gives the Royals another arm from a big ACC program, this time Florida State. After a dominant sophomore season in 2018 (2.52 ERA, 128/37 K/BB), Parrish took a bit of a step back this year, finishing with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 125/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings for the Seminoles. The Rockledge, Florida native, who grew up playing against Royals second rounder Brady McConnell just two towns over, is the opposite of Murdock in most ways. He stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, but he understands how to mix and locate his pitches and use his tumbling changeup to keep hitters off balance. He likely won't post the same high strikeout numbers he had in college, but he should be the kind of guy to induce weak contact and fill the strike zone in pro ball. He has proven durable as a starter, but perhaps his stuff could tick up in a bullpen role, where he could really pitch off that changeup. He signed for $167,500, which was $17,200 below slot, and he has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an 18/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings at Burlington.
14-409: LHP Justin Hooper (UCLA, unranked)
If you follow the draft closely like I do, here's a name you probably haven't heard in a long time. Justin Hooper was a very well-known prospect coming out of the famed De La Salle High School in Concord, California (near Oakland), and he actually ranked at #28 in my first ever draft rankings in 2015, a list which I view as more of a practice round considering I was just getting into the draft. He instead went on to UCLA, where his career has been...rocky. He got hit around as a freshman in 2016, bounced back for a solid sophomore campaign in 2016 with a 3.69 ERA and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio, then missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery. In 2019, he got into...one game, retiring two of the four UC Irvine hitters he faced on May 14th and walking the other two. Like Murdock, he's a huge guy at 6'8", though he comes from a low three quarters arm slot that creates a lot of run on his fastball. Back in high school, which was four years ago, he sat in the low 90's with the promise of more velocity and showed a curveball with nice two-plane break, though his mechanics needed to be cleaned up and he just needed to get more consistent as a pitcher in general. That hasn't happened, so he'll be a complete project for the Royals despite having turned 22 back in October, but he's a sleeper with a huge arm that could surprise some people if he can get healthy and get going. As an interesting aside, when I was researching what the heck happened to him since I last heard his name in 2015, I noticed a bunch of tabloid articles about him apparently dating someone famous – I have no idea who Brielle Biermann is, but apparently that's news enough to bury all of the actually relevant things I was searching for. Hooper signed for $125,000.
Also notable: Noah Murdock (7-199), Drew Parrish (8-229), Justin Hooper (14-409)
Obviously, this draft class is headlined by the uber-talented Bobby Witt Jr., perhaps the best all-around high school position player we've seen since at least Brendan Rodgers in 2015, if not Byron Buxton in 2012. Behind Witt, though, I see this class as fairly ordinary, as I'm not a huge fan of the Brady McConnell pick and most of the players after that are fairly unremarkable. It was a college-heavy draft for the Royals, as they selected 15 consecutive college players after Witt, mostly from big programs.
1-2: SS Bobby Witt Jr. (Colleyville Heritage HS [TX], my rank: 2)
Perhaps the worst-kept secret in the rumor mill heading up to the draft was that the Royals wanted Bobby Witt Jr. with their first pick. Witt is truly an elite talent, with an all around game that rivals some of the best prep hitters in recent memory. He was the top prep player in the class coming into the season, but in early incarnations of my draft list in the winter, I actually had him behind Andrew Vaughn because I just wasn't sold on his hit tool. Well, now I am. The DFW native and son of former big leaguer Bobby Witt is an impact player in all facets of the game, showing big power, much improved plate discipline and ability to make contact, plenty of speed, and exceptional defense at shortstop. He generates his power from a big swing that caused some minor swing and miss questions over the summer, but with his exceptional spring, that's less of an issue and he projects for about 30 or more home runs annually with good on-base percentages. That'll certainly play, especially when you're an elite defender at shortstop, and overall you could compare his game somewhat to Francisco Lindor. Additionally, he's reported to be a hard worker and very easily coachable. The only knock on Witt at this point is his age, as he turned 19 in June and is old for his class, but given all the other positives, that's hardly an issue. Committed to Oklahoma, he instead signed at slot for $7.79 million and is slashing .256/.301/.326 with six stolen bases and an 18/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 games in the complex level Arizona League.
2-44: SS Brady McConnell (Florida, my rank: 71)
A draft-eligible sophomore because he turned 21 in May, Brady McConnell followed a similar path as his teammate and 2018 first rounder Jonathan India. India was a well-regarded high school prospect who instead made it to campus at Florida and hit mediocrely for two years before exploding for a .350/.497/.717 line as a junior and getting drafted fifth overall by the Reds. However, I wasn't quite that high on India, and with a .250/.351/.391 slash line in the minors this year, my thoughts haven't changed. Anyways, this paragraph is about Brady McConnell, who also was a well-regarded high school prospect coming out of Merritt Island on Florida's East Coast, and he ranked 58th on my 2017 list. After picking up just three hits as a freshman at UF in 2018, he exploded in India-like fashion by slashing .332/.385/.576 with 15 home runs and a 57/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games for the Gators. Perhaps more impressively, 11 of his 15 home runs came in conference play against tough SEC arms, leading to a .299/.349/.615 slash line in those 30 games. However, like India, I'm not quite sold on McConnell at this draft position. He has power in his 6'3" frame and got to it consistently in 2019, drifting forward in his effective load before exploding with his smooth, whippy swing. On the flip side, his plate discipline this year was mediocre, as evidenced by a high 22.4% strikeout rate and a low 6.7% walk rate. If McConnell wants his production to carry over to pro ball, he'll have to get more patient at the plate and prove that he can find the barrel consistently against pro pitching. He's also only so-so at shortstop and will likely have to move over to second or third base, especially with Witt guaranteed to stay there. Together, that gives McConnell the upside of a power-hitting shortstop with 20-30 homer annual pop, though he has some questions to answer if he wants to get there. He signed for $2.22 million, which was $521,000 above slot, and he's slashing .250/.348/.475 with two home runs and a 31/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games between the Arizona League and rookie level Idaho Falls.
CBB-70: RHP Alec Marsh (Arizona State, my rank: 99)
Alec Marsh has gotten better each year at Arizona State, and this year he posted a 3.46 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 99/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. However, that ERA might be just a bit deceiving, as he was blown up for a combined 17 runs between his April 5th start against USC and his April 26th start against Washington. Taking out those two terrible starts, he was remarkably consistent and actually carried a 2.11 ERA. When things are working for the 6'2" righty, he's a reliable arm that fires low 90's fastballs, a couple of good breaking balls, and a solid changeup, all of which he can command fairly well. All together, Marsh does not bring the most eye-popping resume, either from his stats or his stuff, but his well-rounded skill set makes him an advanced arm for a kid who just turned 21 in May and should help him reach the majors as a #3 or #4 starter. Like Witt, he's seen as a hard worker who will get the most out of his ability, especially if the Royals can help him avoid those blow-ups. He signed for $904,300, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 3.98 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 20.1 innings for Idaho Falls.
3-80: RHP Grant Gambrell (Oregon State, my rank: 116)
Ten picks after nabbing Marsh, the Royals went back to the Pac-12 and grabbed another starting pitcher, this time from Oregon State. Grant Gambrell, with the luxury of throwing to first overall pick Adley Rutschman in Corvallis, had a breakthrough year on the mound and posted a 2.83 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and an 80/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings against much of the same competition that Marsh faced. The Fresno-area native is a big guy at 6'4", and he comes in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a fairly promising slider, and a decent changeup. That slider has sharp break, but it also breaks early and could be easy to pick up, so he'll have to refine it a bit further in order to get the swings and misses he wants out of it. He's fairly inconsistent on the mound and throws with some effort, so despite the solid numbers, the Royals are really buying into his arm strength and are hoping they can turn him into something with pro refinement. He does throw strikes in general, but again, he's not there consistently yet. Consider Gambrell an upside play who could be a mid-rotation starter but who could also end up as a power reliever. He signed for $647,500, which was $120,300 below slot, and he has a 5.06 ERA, a 1.63 WHIP, and a 16/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 innings at Idaho Falls.
4-109: 2B Michael Massey (Illinois, unranked)
There's not much upside to be had here, but Michael Massey is about as steady as they come. The Chicago native slashed .330/.360/.483 as a freshman at Illinois then .326/.369/.514 as a sophomore, after which he slashed .280/.337/.366 with a home run and a 6/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games in the elite Cape Cod League. This year, Massey's numbers were down just a hair as he dealt with a back injury, but he still finished at .317/.372/.459 with five home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. Standing an even six feet tall, Massey will never be much of a power hitter, instead relying on excellent bat to ball skills (13.4% strikeout rate) and good plate discipline to slap singles and doubles around the field. His feel for the game means he shouldn't have much trouble adjusting to pro pitching, though he likely won't hit enough to end up a full time starter in the majors. He's not the most athletic guy in the world, but he understands the game and plays hard and should be an above average defender at second base or playable on the left side of the infield. Overall, the gritty infielder with contact ability and baseball IQ points very clearly towards a utility infield role at the major league level, one which he should have little trouble getting to. He signed for $472,500, which was $60,500 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.309/.348 with a pair of home runs and an 18/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at rookie level Burlington.
5-139: OF John Rave (Illinois State, my rank: 138)
Two picks, two Illinois college position players. John Rave comes from Illinois State, but unlike his Prairie State counterpart, he's anything but steady. The Bloomington, Illinois native had a big sophomore year for the Redbirds in 2018, slashing .347/.402/.571, then he continued the hot hitting in the Cape Cod League and slashed .304/.392/.464 with four home runs and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games. However, his numbers dropped this year as a junior, as he sold out for power and ended up slashing .297/.377/.502 with 12 home runs and a 64/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. He can show average power when he swings for the fences, but he has historically hit better when he just focused on making hard contact and getting on base, and that's probably what the Royals will try to get him back to doing. His plate discipline is fringy, so pro ball may be a bit of an adjustment for him. Rave is also fringe-average in the outfield despite his well above average speed, so he'll need some refinement there as well. Overall, it's hard to project him, as he'll need more refinement than the typical college hitter, but the talent is clearly there because you don't put up an .856 OPS on the Cape by accident. He signed for $297,500, which was $100,500 below slot, and he's slashing .231/.342/.336 with two home runs and a 40/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games between Burlington and Class A Lexington.
7-199: RHP Noah Murdock (Virginia, unranked)
Noah Murdock was a well-known prospect coming out of high school in Colonial Heights, Virginia just south of Richmond as an ultra-projectable 6'7" string bean with a low 90's fastball, and he ranked #130 on my 2016 draft list because of it. However, he was raw and had a long way to go. Now even taller at 6'8" and with 2017 Tommy John surgery under his belt, he's still raw, and as a junior this year, he posted a disappointing 6.30 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, and a 69/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.1 innings. He still sits in the low 90's and flashes a solid breaking ball, and the angle he creates with his long arms helps those pitches play up. However, he got hit when he left the ball over the plate and/or his breaking ball flattened out, and he'll need mechanical refinement in the minors. Fortunately for him and the Royals, he's young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until August, giving him more time to develop into a potential big league starting pitcher or late inning reliever. He signed for $230,500, which was $2,500 below slot, and he has a 2.10 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 26/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings with Burlington.
8-229: LHP Drew Parrish (Florida State, unranked)
Drew Parrish gives the Royals another arm from a big ACC program, this time Florida State. After a dominant sophomore season in 2018 (2.52 ERA, 128/37 K/BB), Parrish took a bit of a step back this year, finishing with a 4.67 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 125/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.1 innings for the Seminoles. The Rockledge, Florida native, who grew up playing against Royals second rounder Brady McConnell just two towns over, is the opposite of Murdock in most ways. He stands just 5'11" and sits in the upper 80's with his fastball, but he understands how to mix and locate his pitches and use his tumbling changeup to keep hitters off balance. He likely won't post the same high strikeout numbers he had in college, but he should be the kind of guy to induce weak contact and fill the strike zone in pro ball. He has proven durable as a starter, but perhaps his stuff could tick up in a bullpen role, where he could really pitch off that changeup. He signed for $167,500, which was $17,200 below slot, and he has a 3.95 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and an 18/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 13.2 innings at Burlington.
14-409: LHP Justin Hooper (UCLA, unranked)
If you follow the draft closely like I do, here's a name you probably haven't heard in a long time. Justin Hooper was a very well-known prospect coming out of the famed De La Salle High School in Concord, California (near Oakland), and he actually ranked at #28 in my first ever draft rankings in 2015, a list which I view as more of a practice round considering I was just getting into the draft. He instead went on to UCLA, where his career has been...rocky. He got hit around as a freshman in 2016, bounced back for a solid sophomore campaign in 2016 with a 3.69 ERA and a 52/26 strikeout to walk ratio, then missed all of 2018 with Tommy John surgery. In 2019, he got into...one game, retiring two of the four UC Irvine hitters he faced on May 14th and walking the other two. Like Murdock, he's a huge guy at 6'8", though he comes from a low three quarters arm slot that creates a lot of run on his fastball. Back in high school, which was four years ago, he sat in the low 90's with the promise of more velocity and showed a curveball with nice two-plane break, though his mechanics needed to be cleaned up and he just needed to get more consistent as a pitcher in general. That hasn't happened, so he'll be a complete project for the Royals despite having turned 22 back in October, but he's a sleeper with a huge arm that could surprise some people if he can get healthy and get going. As an interesting aside, when I was researching what the heck happened to him since I last heard his name in 2015, I noticed a bunch of tabloid articles about him apparently dating someone famous – I have no idea who Brielle Biermann is, but apparently that's news enough to bury all of the actually relevant things I was searching for. Hooper signed for $125,000.
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