2023 MLB Draft Review: Chicago White Sox

Full list of draftees

The White Sox brought on a wide variety of skill sets in this class, with no two players possessing the same profile. It started with Jacob Gonzalez, at one point considered a top five talent in the class, on a large under slot deal, and that helped them later land Chicago-area native George Wolkow for a massive over slot bonus in the seventh round. Overall, I think it's a decent class that could provide contributors in a lot of different roles.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-15: SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $4.49 million. Signing bonus: $3.9 million ($588,600 below slot value).
My rank: #15. MLB Pipeline: #18. Baseball America: #11. Prospects Live: #7.
Jacob Gonzalez was considered a potential top five prospect in the class entering the season and didn't really do too much to relinquish that status, so the White Sox getting him here in the middle of the first round for a sizable discount (close to slot value for pick #19) is very nice value. He burst onto the scene with a massive freshman season in 2021 (.355/.443/.561), then bounced back from an up and down sophomore year (.273/.405/.558) with another strong junior season, slashing .327/.435/.564 with ten home runs and a 28/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. He's an extremely professional hitter and always has been, walking more than he struck out in each of his three seasons in Oxford. He has some of the best hand-eye coordination in the class, making a ton of contact both inside and outside the zone and rarely ever striking out. This enables him to have success with a fairly unorthodox swing, in which he throws his weight up the first base line to yank balls hard to the pull side and generate strong batted ball data. For most, this selling out to the pull side would cause them to pull off soft stuff away and many teams were lower on him for that reason. However, Gonzalez's barrel control enables him to reach those tougher pitches and he's made this approach work extremely well against strong competition in the SEC, so I'm not particularly concerned about his ability to make it work in pro ball. The only concern is that if he does need to begin employing a more balanced, all-fields approach in the upper minors or in the majors, it could take away from his power production which is maximized by his current approach. As it stands, the Southern California product has above average power, but it could drop to average with a more refined approach. Still, it's very reasonable to expect 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages as the median outcome, and he could be a 20-25 home run bat or more with those high on-base percentages at his ceiling. A below average runner, he has shown well at shortstop anyways because of his strong internal clock and body control, with a strong arm that aids his cause. He may move to third base in the future, where he should be at least an average defender if not above average. He hasn't quite gotten going yet in pro ball, where he is slashing .216/.305/.284 with one home run and a 16/12 strikeout to walk ratio in 23 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Kannapolis.

2-51: RHP Grant Taylor, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.66 million. Signing bonus: $1.66 million.
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #102. Baseball America: #80. Prospects Live: #79.
Last year, the White Sox took a second round chance on an injured SEC hurler while he worked his way back from Tommy John surgery. A year after taking Peyton Pallette out of Arkansas, the White Sox did it again in grabbing Grant Taylor out of LSU despite the fact that he has just 31 collegiate innings under his belt after missing 2023 with Tommy John surgery. Taylor had an unremarkable freshman season in 2022, but really made a name for himself with a strong run through the Cape Cod League (2.14 ERA, 30/2 K/BB in 21 IP) and continued to show well in fall practice. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for the upper 90's early in starts, with the ability to cut or ride it depending on what he needs. Taylor can really spin a breaking ball, with a potentially plus curveball in addition to an above average slider that he has begun to effectively work into a cutter, though to this point he hasn't used his changeup much. It's a really nice pitch mix that could produce five average or better pitches once he gains more conviction in his changeup, and it all comes from a sturdy 6'3" frame that should lend itself well to starting. Beyond health, the main question mark is command, as Taylor ran an elevated 13.9% walk rate as a freshman in 2022 but pounded the zone with conviction on the Cape and in fall practice. If he can hold that command together, and the White Sox believe he can, he has a shot to be a mid-rotation starter.

3-84: RHP Seth Keener, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $833,900. Signing bonus: $800,000 ($33,900 below slot value).
My rank: #91. MLB Pipeline: #108. Baseball America: #131. Prospects Live: #66.
Seth Keener was ineffective as a freshman then stepped into a larger role as a sophomore, but still put up an uneven performance. He always had the arm strength, though, and put it together for an excellent junior season in which he posted a 2.69 ERA and a 94/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 70.1 innings despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home park. Keener has electric stuff, sitting in the low to mid 90's and touching 97 with his fastball, which comes in with some hop to boot. He leans heavily on a plus slider and still misses a ton of bats even when hitters know it's coming, while his changeup has the makings of a solid average pitch. Everything plays up because he gets great extension down the mound, a product of his great athleticism and mature 6'2" frame. While he's more of a control over command type, he repeats his delivery well and pounds the strike zone with conviction, so his misses still tend to be competitive offerings that keep him in every at bat. Keener is a Cape performer (2.61 ERA, 29/11 K/BB) and has a chance to start in pro ball even though he served as a swingman at Wake Forest. So far, he has allowed one run over six innings on seven strikeouts and two walks in the Arizona Complex League.

4-116: C Calvin Harris, Mississippi {video}
Slot value: $574,600. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($25,400 above slot value).
My rank: #183. MLB Pipeline: #133. Baseball America: #167. Prospects Live: #157.
In the fourth round, the White Sox picked up a semi-local kid in Calvin Harris. Harris is a native of Peosta, Iowa, a small town just west of Dubuque near the Field of Dreams site and about three and a half hours northwest of Chicago. He has been a very productive hitter for Ole Miss the past two seasons, and in 2023 slashed .321/.398/.579 with 12 home runs and a 40/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games. Four of those home runs, a third of his season total, came in one game against Missouri on May 6th in what was the offensive performance of the season in college baseball. Overall, Harris lacks a standout tool but does a lot of things well. He clearly has some power, though overall it's probably closer to average in the long run, a product of his sturdy 6' frame packed with plenty of strength. He does a decent job of controlling the zone and makes a fair amount of contact, with a very reasonable 16.4% strikeout rate and a nice 11.9% walk rate this past spring. SEC pitching did expose some holes in his swing, but he did perform well regardless. In drafting him this high, a bit ahead of where most boards had him, the White Sox clearly believe in his ability to catch, which is a question mark for some evaluators. He handles himself well behind the plate with solid glovework, though he hasn't fully regained his arm strength after recovering from Tommy John surgery. If he can get that done, he has a chance to be an average defender with an average bat – not the most exciting profile, but pretty valuable for a catcher. So far, he's slashing .244/.355/.321 with one home run and an 18/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Kannapolis.

5-152: LHP Christian Oppor, Gulf Coast JC [FL] {video}
Slot value: $404,700. Signing bonus: $550,000 ($145,300 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #225. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #329.
Christian Oppor gives the White Sox another small town Midwesterner, having grown up in Columbus, Wisconsin a little northeast of Madison and about two and a half hours northwest of Chicago. The A's took him as a draft and follow prospect but ultimately did not come to terms with him, allowing him to be available to the White Sox here in the fifth round for fourth round money. Oppor had an inconsistent season for Gulf Coast JC in Florida, where he posted a 6.24 ERA and a 76/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.1 innings, but the White Sox are buying the athleticism and arm strength here. Oppor touched 98 early in the spring but sat more in the low 90's throughout the season, with some flat plane from a lower release point. While the fastball is his best pitch, he does show solid feel for his changeup that functions as his best offspeed pitch, while his slider is very much a work in progress. Oppor is very young, having only turned 19 in July, making him younger than some high school seniors in this draft class. He also has a very athletic delivery and accesses his prodigious arm talent with ease, so once the White Sox help him begin to repeat that delivery better, his strike throwing should improve from the below average grade it has now to something closer to average. There is a lot to work with here from the 6'2" lefty even if he is a long way off. He has allowed two runs (one earned) over 7.2 innings in the Arizona Complex League, striking out nine against two walks.

6-179: LHP Lucas Gordon, Texas {video}
Slot value: $317,400. Signing bonus: $300,000 ($17,400 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #277. Prospects Live: #466.
Lucas Gordon has a similar feel to Pete Hansen a year ago, as a soft tossing Californian lefty coming out of the University of Texas with a strong track record to his name. Indeed, after putting up a 3.05 ERA and a 77/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings as a sophomore, he improved to a 2.63 ERA and a 103/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings as a junior this year despite so many other pitchers seeing their numbers take a step back. Gordon sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out around 93-94 with some running action, making for a fringe-average pitch. He can work in a couple of slurvy breaking balls that get nice depth but lack power and bite, so his best pitch is an above average changeup that misses a ton of bats. With an easy, repeatable delivery and a strong track record of above average command, Gordon does have a shot crack it as a back-end starter if he can add a little more power to his stuff. If not, he'll end up as a fastball/changeup lefty reliever that can throw a few innings at a time. In 5.2 innings in the Arizona Complex League, he has allowed two runs (one earned) while striking out eight and walking five.

7-209: OF George Wolkow, Downers Grove North HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: $248,300. Signing bonus: $1 million ($751,700 above slot value).
My rank: #84. MLB Pipeline: #71. Baseball America: #79. Prospects Live: #179.
For the second year in a row, the White Sox gave a seven figure bonus to a high schooler from the Chicago suburbs, following up Oswego East's Noah Schultz last year with Downers Grove North's George Wolkow this year. Wolkow signed way above slot value here in the seventh round, earning early third round money (close to the slot value for pick #73) to sign away from a South Carolina commitment and stay home. He is also the youngest player in the entire 2023 draft as the only kid born in 2006 taken this year (feel old yet?) after reclassifying from the 2024 class. He has earned comparisons to a left handed Aaron Judge due to his massive 6'7", 240 pound frame that you don't see every day from a 17 year old, and he's got the power to match. The ball jumps off his bat as he exerts plus power to all fields, and he tapped it in games around DuPage County this year despite it really only being his junior season. The youth does become apparent with his hit tool, though. Similar to Blaze Jordan a few years back, he was a bit uneven against older competition on the showcase circuit and needs more seasoning in that regard. Like many big sluggers, he can be slow getting going with his swing and sometimes struggles to catch up to quality stuff in the zone. A fringy runner, he'll be limited to an outfield corner in pro ball but his above average arm could help him stick in right field. The White Sox are buying the power here and hope that his youth is the main reason behind his inconsistent hit tool, and that he'll pull it together as he matures. So far in the Arizona Complex League, he is slashing .225/.392/.325 with one home run and a 17/9 strikeout to walk ratio through 13 games.

8-239: OF Eddie Park, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $199,900. Signing bonus: $200,000 ($100 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #196. Prospects Live: #182.
If George Wolkow's youth, size, and power put him on one extreme, then Eddie Park occupies the other extreme. On the older side for a college junior, he's four and a half years older than Wolkow and is coming off his best season for Stanford, slashing .333/.413/.475 with six home runs and a 25/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. Though he hit those six home runs in 2023 (after hitting none in 2021 and 2022), he has near bottom of the scale power with some of the lowest top end exit velocities in the entire class, rarely cracking 100 MPH this year. Instead, he uses his quick left handed swing and short follow through to slap balls around the field, with excellent feel for the barrel and the ability to elevate and turn on the ball when he needs to. Park rarely chases and rarely swings and misses, leading to just a 7.8% strikeout rate in 2023 as he forced defenses to make plays. He doesn't ever need to become a power hitter, though those low exit velocities will put pressure on his ability to continue to use the whole field and find holes, something that gets tougher as pitching and defenses get better in pro ball and the Major Leagues. Park is an above average runner that can stretch for extra bases at times, and that also gives him a shot to stick in center field. Not overly physical, the San Jose native doesn't have much of an arm and will have to move to left field if a better defender locks down center field. He's hitting about as expected so far, slashing .283/.377/.283 with a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Kannapolis.

12-359: RHP Mathias LaCombe, Cochise JC [AZ] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $450,000 ($300,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #372. Prospects Live: #361.
The White Sox emptied the last remaining money from heir bonus pool into Mathias LaCombe, giving him early fifth round money here in the twelfth round. LaCombe is from way off the beaten path, having grown up in Toulouse, South of France before coming over to the states to pitch at Cochise JC in an empty stretch of desert on the Mexican border. After an unremarkable year in 2022, he broke out in 2023 with a 1.74 ERA and a 97/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings, quickly establishing himself as a legitimate prospect. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can reach back for 97 in short stints with running action. His slider has nice sweeping action to it, though it does need to add power, and his changeup is a bit behind the other two. He has a bit of a raw delivery where he looks like he's just flinging the ball at times, but he still repeats it well and fills up the strike zone. With projection remaining on his 6'2" frame, LaCombe is great clay for the White Sox player development program to get their hands on and mold into an impact starting pitcher.

2023 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at second overall

Had draft order rules not changed with the most recent CBA, the Nationals would be picking first overall for the first time since their back to back picks in 2009 and 2010, which netted the team future franchise cornerstones Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper. The CBA created a draft lottery that no longer guaranteed the Nationals the first overall pick, but all told, they should be very happy to come away with the second overall pick.

Mike Rizzo and the Nationals have drafted incredibly poorly over the past decade or so, not only whiffing on almost every single first round pick but also failing to find value later in the draft, which in reality matters even more than that first pick. The team has not drafted and developed an impact player since Anthony Rendon in 2011 – not in the first round, not in the second round, and not in the twentieth round. That is the result of a player development system that has fallen far, far behind most of the rest of the league, relying on traditional development methods rather than embracing new technology and trends in the game. Fortunately, however, the tide appears to be turning. While I wasn't thrilled with the 2021 and 2022 drafts as a whole, I was thrilled with the Brady House and Elijah Green picks as first rounders. And while it remains to be seen how much use the organization gets out of the slew of new hires in the analytics and player development realms, the hiring spree represents a very positive sign in its own right.

That hiring spree might make it hard to peg just what kind of players the Nationals are looking to target in this draft, but in terms of that first pick, things get a little easier to prognosticate. There are only so many names in play at the very top no matter a team's drafting style, and they'll probably have their eye on the top half dozen or so prospects once the day rolls around. 

For now, though, we have a whole season to play and the names will not be the same in July, so we can have a little bit of fun with this list. Common knowledge would recognize that the Nationals are far deeper in young outfielders than they are in any other demographic, which would seemingly rule out names like Dylan Crews, Wyatt Langford, Max Clark, and Walker Jenkins at the top, but there is a very important extra bit of context to bring home; you don't draft for need. If the best player available is an outfielder, it doesn't matter that the Nationals already have Elijah Green, James Wood, and Cristhian Vaquero, among others, in the system – you draft the outfielder anyways. That also means there is no need to jump at a pitcher with this pick despite the absolute dearth of arm talent in the system, unless they determine that a pitcher is the best remaining player. Again, it doesn't matter that the Nationals have a bunch of outfielders and no pitching. If they see an outfielder as the best player available, take him and not the pitcher. With that, here are ten possibilities for the second overall pick, ranging from right-now favorites to a few wild cards that may not be in play just yet at the top of the draft but could get there with a strong spring. Remember, 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was not in the first round conversation at all at this time a year ago.

Number in parentheses after school name denotes current rank on my draft board.

1. RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#3)
At this point, all signs point to Chase Dollander as the favorite for the second overall pick. I just hammered home the point that you do not draft for need, but the truth is the Nationals really, really need pitching and Dollander may very well be the best player available on draft day. In fact, many scouts have called him the best college pitcher they've seen in years, right up there alongside names like Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, and David Price. The Mike Rizzo we know and love would be beyond thrilled to get the Augusta, Georgia-area native into the system, so he's as good a name as any for Nationals fans to follow this spring. It's as complete a profile as you're going to find at the college level, setting up from a very athletic, projectable 6'3" frame. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and has been creeping closer and closer to triple digits, adding explosive riding life from a release point that gets great extension. In a vacuum, it's one of the best fastballs in college baseball, but there is much more to the profile. Dollander also rips off a nasty slider with short, powerful sweeping action that is distinctly different from his downer curveball, while his changeup gives him a fourth average or better pitch. All of this comes from a clean, athletic delivery that helps him effectively locate his entire arsenal to both sides of the plate, ensuring every pitch is competitive and giving plenty of confidence his stuff will continue to play up in pro ball. He enters the spring as the near-consensus best pitcher in the country, and if he can stay healthy while repeating his exceptional 2022 (2.39 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 108/13 K/BB) in the always tough SEC, it's hard to imagine Mike Rizzo passing up the chance at a future ace. Once drafted, he could move very quickly and give a much needed boost to a young Nationals pitching core currently led by Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli, Cole Henry, and a bit further down, Jarlin Susana.

2. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)

Chase Dollander may be the frontrunner for the Nationals at pick number two, but Dylan Crews is probably the better prospect at this point and sits comfortably in the top spot on my draft board. If the Pirates don't take him first overall, I would hope Rizzo and co. would pull the trigger here unless his bonus demands are outrageous. He's the kind of bat that can transform a lineup, and throwing him into that outfield mix with Green, Wood, Vaquero, Robert Hassell, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Brenner Cox might give Washington the best group of young outfielders in baseball. Crews was considered a first round talent early in the 2020 draft cycle but an up and down summer leading up to his senior year of high school dropped him closer to second round consideration. He wound up at Louisiana State and has done nothing but hit since day one, slashing .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games while playing a very tough SEC schedule. The power potential here is simply different. He consistently produces some of the highest exit velocities in college baseball, punishing baseballs to all fields that never seem to come down. He can take you deep to in any direction on any day of the week, profiling for 30+ home runs annually at the big league level. Crews isn't just a slugger, though – he's a very patient hitter at the plate that takes professional at bats and consistently works counts into his favor. When he does get a pitch he can do damage on, he rarely misses it, and his career 16.8% strikeout rate is very impressive as an underclassman power hitter in the SEC. He may be a little bit power over hit at this point, but it's not by much. Additionally, he started all 62 games for LSU in center field last season, bringing above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a net positive out there as well. Teams love up the middle talent early in the draft, and at least for now, Crews fits that profile. However, with numerous prospects that could fit in center field long term, he would probably profile as a right fielder in the Nationals' system and could become at least an above average defender there. He would likely move quickly and could potentially beat every outfield name I mentioned earlier to the majors.

3. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi (#4)
Dylan Crews and Chase Dollander are the top two prospects in the draft for now, but Jacob Gonzalez is the top infielder in the country and could easily hit his way into this spot just by continuing the pace he's set over his first two seasons at Ole Miss (30 HR, .315/.424/.560). The Nationals are not developing talent well at all right now, and by drafting Gonzalez, they would get one of the most big league-ready players in the class that doesn't need much development. He has impeccable feel for the strike zone, walking four more times than he struck out as a true freshman before bumping that number to eighteen as a sophomore. He is completely comfortable with premium SEC pitching and should seamlessly transition to pro pitching, perhaps enough to start off with AA Harrisburg in 2024. Gonzalez also packs plenty of strength into his 6'2" frame and channels it very well in his left handed swing, showing easy plus raw power to the pull side. He's mostly a pull hitter to this point, but his pitch recognition skills enable him to be successful with that approach even when being pitched on the outer half. It might take some tweaking in pro ball as pitchers are able to better execute to the outside corners and change speeds more effectively, but I really don't imagine he'll have any trouble at all adjusting. Unlike Crews, Gonzalez would give the Nationals an infield bat to join a pretty thin group at that position group in the system. A shortstop for now, he probably fits better at third base going forward due to below average foot speed, but he's plenty athletic enough to stick there. Gonzalez' batting average and on-base percentage dropped from .355/.443 as a freshman to .273/.405 as a sophomore as pitchers stopped pitching to him, but if he adjusts back like he is capable of, he would make a lot of sense at #2.

4. OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [IN] (#2)
Could the Nationals make it three years in a row taking a prep bat? Prep bats are my favorite demographic, and the team made me very happy drafting Brady House and Elijah Green the past two seasons. If they go that route again in 2023, Max Clark is in my opinion the clear top prep player on the market with a tremendous combination of physical projection, present feel for the game, and work ethic. More so than any high school hitter in the country, I feel confident Clark is going to grow into his game naturally and become a true five tool player down the line. For now, he's hit over power with a line drive, gap to gap approach that has him hitting for high averages against elite prep pitching. He recognizes spin and can get the barrel to the ball all over the zone, utilizing a simple operation in the box rather than selling out for power and trying to do too much. That said, the power will come. He has a very well proportioned 6'1" frame with plenty of room to add strength, and he has been hitting the weight room hard to help build that strength. As he fills out physically, the power will come naturally without him having to change his approach at the plate, which should enable him to continue to hit for high averages while still putting up high home run totals. Beyond his bat, Clark is an elite defender in center field with plus-plus arm strength and plus-plus speed, making for the highest upside in the class. In some ways, he'd be a perfect complement to Green, who also shows that double plus speed and arm strength, with the right handed hitting Green a power-over-hit bat that is looking to even things out and the left handed hitting Clark a hit-over-power bat looking to tack on strength. If the draft were today, I would be thrilled with any of Crews, Dollander, or Clark in this spot no matter what the bonus demands were.

5. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#12)

As I've mentioned, the Nationals' system is almost completely barren of pitching talent and they could really use an impact arm to give the system a boost. At this point, I much prefer Chase Dollander (and Hurston Waldrep for that matter), but Paul Skenes has generated buzz near the top of the draft and does feel like a guy Mike Rizzo could target if he takes well to the SEC.  He dominated the very hitter-friendly Mountain West Conference while at Air Force to the tune of a 2.73 ERA and a 96/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings last year, and this year he joins LSU in hopes of proving his chops against the best hitters in the country. The stuff is trending up and up and up, and he looked even better this fall when he ran his fastball up to 99 and flashed plus with both his slider and his changeup. Big and durable at 6'6" and 235 pounds, he pounds the strike zone and creates difficult angle with his size. In the spring, he'll need to show that his improving stuff can miss bats in the SEC after running a more-good-than-great 27.0% strikeout rate at Air Force last year, when his fastball was a few ticks slower and his slider played closer to average. That version of Paul Skenes would probably fit closer to the back of the first round, but showing that mid 90's velocity and plus offspeed stuff over a full spring season would make him a top ten prospect. Of course, he comes with that service academy work ethic that only adds to the profile.

6. RHP Rhett Lowder, Wake Forest (#13)
Rhett Lowder probably fits closer to the middle of the first round at this point and my ranking reflects that, but he's the kind of pitcher that could play his way to an under slot deal with the Nationals if he builds his stock a little this spring. Again, there isn't much pitching talent in the system right now, and Lowder's advanced all around game would be a welcome site if he takes another step forward this spring. He's up to 97 with his fastball and and shows above average with his slider and changeup, giving him a nearly big league ready arsenal as it is. Lowder also commands everything very well for his age and could report straight to AA Harrisburg to start 2024, with advanced feel for pitching that is hard to find at his age, especially among pitchers with his kind of stuff. At this point, he lacks a true swing and miss offering and profiles more as a safe bet #3 starter than a true top of the rotation stalwart, so there is work to be done. If he wants to go second overall, he'll need to miss more bats this year and improve on last year's 25.1% strikeout rate either by adding some life to his fastball or some snap to his slider. I certainly believe that is possible, and if he can do that, he's the kind of pitcher Mike Rizzo would love to add into the system on a below slot deal.

7. RHP Hurston Waldrep, Florida (#7)
Hurston Waldrep is a very different pitcher, but he does find himself in a similar position to Paul Skenes transferring into the SEC. He comes from Southern Miss, where he struck out 140 batters in 90 innings for a sky high 37.3% strikeout rate. There are some very strong lineups in Conference USA, but the jump to the SEC will certainly be a test for Waldrep and therefore an opportunity for him to boost his stock even further. With an uptempo delivery and a skinny build at 6'2", he doesn't look on the surface like the low risk, steady starting pitcher that you'd think Rizzo would target at the top of the draft (Dollander, Skenes, and Lowder fit that description better), but he is a little reminiscent of other top ten picks like Carson Fulmer and Jack Leiter. Everything with Waldrep is explosive. The fastball is easily in the mid 90's and approaches triple digits with big time riding action, while the rest of his arsenal is equally impressive. He shows a hard slider, a power curve, and a rapidly improving splitter that all flash at least above average if not plus, so it's hard not to see him continuing to miss SEC bats in bunches like he did in the C-USA. With average command, the SEC will be a test as more advanced hitters will make it a little tougher for him to control the strike zone. He walked 8.8% of his opponents last year, which isn't a huge number but is still the highest on this list above Dollander (4.2%), Lowder (6.2%), and Skenes (8.5%). If he can continue to elicit chases and avoid walks with Florida while maintaining his stuff and health, Rizzo may be interested in his services on a below-slot deal, especially if Dollander, Lowder, and Skenes don't seize their opportunity.

8. 3B Brayden Taylor, Texas Christian (#9)

The last time the Nationals drafted, developed, and reaped the benefits from an impact player was 2011, when they took Anthony Rendon with the sixth overall pick out of Rice. Twelve years later, they may have an opportunity to make a similar pick from the Lone Star State in TCU's Brayden Taylor, though Taylor has the added benefit of batting left handed. While there's no matching the otherworldly numbers Rendon put up for the Owls from 2009-2011 (52 HR, .373/.505/.680 in 187 games), Taylor has been a one man wrecking crew in his own right for two years now (25 HR, .319/.450/.574 in 117 games) and still won't turn 21 until May. He fits what the Nationals like as an advanced, all-around bat that can do a little bit of everything. Taylor takes extremely professional at bats, as evidenced by drawing more walks than strikeouts in both his underclass seasons. He controls the strike zone, rarely chasing but consistently doing damage on the pitches he does choose to attack, helping him produce elite on-base percentages of .445 and .454 the last two seasons. He's definitely hit over power at this point, but he does show average power overall and can take you deep to the pull side when he turns on one. At this point, I don't think he's in play at the second overall pick, but he's not far off and his to do list is pretty simple. Fairly slender at 6'1", tacking on some strength and tapping more all-fields power in 2023 would certainly move him closer to the conversation, and given his youth and athleticism I could definitely see that happening. Taylor has also played almost exclusively third base during his time at TCU, but with Tommy Sacco gone to the Astros, he could get some looks at shortstop this year. He has shown well at the hot corner to this point and if he also takes well to shortstop, that would be another feather in his cap. Show both the added power and the aptitude at shortstop, and you have a strong candidate to go second overall to the Nationals.

9. 3B Aidan Miller, Mitchell HS [FL] (#16)
Usually, teams prefer up the middle talent at the top of the draft. Aidan Miller, the younger brother of Reds prospect Jackson Miller, may not quite fit that description, but if he can prove what he needs to prove in 2023, he could work his way as high as the Nationals' pick at #2. It's some of the best power in the prep class, coming naturally from a big league body at 6'2" that enables him to tap it consistently without selling out. Miller also takes big league at bats, with a disciplined approach that helps him stay in the zone and attack pitches he can do damage on, though like many power hitters, he can be prone to chasing fastballs up. There are some moving parts in the swing which hamper his pure hit tool, representing an opportunity where he can improve and potentially push his draft position up, which presently stands closer to the middle of the first round. Given that he'll already be 19 well before the draft, the Nationals will want to see that polished up a bit before rolling the dice at pick #2. More pressing, though, especially at the top of the draft, is his future position. A plus arm gives him a chance to stick at third base, but he's not a quick twitch guy and can't afford to slow down much more. If he can come out and continue to show good range at the hot corner this spring and help Rizzo and co. feel comfortable that he can avoid a move to first base, it would make them much more likely to pull the trigger this early in the draft, especially if his hit tool ticks up a little in addition. He wouldn't be the first player from J.W. Mitchell High School in the Tampa suburbs to star for the Nationals, as the school was also one of the many stops Tyler Clippard made as he bounced around from high school to high school as an amateur.

10. SS Roch Cholowsky, Hamilton HS [AZ] (#20)
We'll round it out with a wild card pick. In ranking Cholowsky 20th on my board, I'm actually significantly higher on him than Baseball America (#28), Prospects Live (#33), and MLB Pipeline (#35), and he still has a ways to go to get to #2. Still, eventual 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday was ranked outside the top 50 on many lists at this point a year ago, and I think Cholowsky has a chance to be that guy in 2023. The Phoenix-area product is a fantastic athlete that actually has a chance to play quarterback at UCLA in addition to baseball, and it's that physical upside that makes me think he could make the jump. He moves effortlessly on the diamond, showing above average range and arm strength that makes the shortstop position look easy, so he already has that up the middle defensive projection that teams prefer at the top of the draft. Of course, you're not drafting anything less than a future top/middle of the order bat at pick #2, and Cholowsky does have some work to do to get there. The good news is the foundation is there, so if he comes out in 2023 a little stronger and a little more polished, he could fly up boards. He already shows very natural bat to ball skills and for the most part combines that with good swing decisions, making for a potential above average hit tool in the future. His swing is also very fluid and with the physical upside I mentioned, any strength gains could get him to at least average power if not better, especially as he learns to make better use of his legs. So there are two things that need to happen for Cholowsky to make the leap: more polish, and more physicality. I think the physicality is more or less a given and could easily show up this spring, while the polish may come a little later given his two-sport nature but is also pretty strong as it is. I really like this kid and I would be thrilled to see him swing his way up to #2.

Other Top Ranked Candidates

OF Wyatt Lanford, Florida (#5)

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#8)
SS Kevin McGonigle, Monsignor Bonnor HS [PA] (#10)

OF Enrique Bradfield, Vanderbilt (#11)

SS Jacob Wilson, Grand Canyon (#14)

Other Dark Horse Candidates

OF Travis Honeyman, Boston College (#6)

OF Jack Hurley, Virginia Tech (#18)
SS Arjun Nimmala, Strawberry Crest HS [FL] (#21)
LHP Thomas White, Phillips Academy [MA] (#22)
LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama (#37)

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the SEC West

2022 draftees: 41. Top school: Arkansas (9)
2022 preseason writeup (published 10/17/2021, full SEC)

Top 2022 draftees:
1-6, Marlins: 3B Jacob Berry (Louisiana State)
CBA-34, Diamondbacks: RHP Landon Sims (Mississippi State)
2-48, Twins: LHP Connor Prielipp (Alabama)
2-49, Royals: 3B Cayden Wallace (Arkansas)
2-55, Reds: C Logan Tanner (Mississippi State)
2-62, White Sox: RHP Peyton Pallette (Arkansas)
CBB-72, Brewers: 2B Robert Moore (Arkansas)

Ironically enough, the SEC West exactly matched the SEC East last year with 41 players drafted among the seven teams, though no team could reach double digits on its own like Tennessee did. In all, the SEC's 82 players drafted smashed the previous year's mark of 68 while also easily beating the second place ACC's total of 57 draftees. Arkansas (9) and Auburn (8) led the way last year for the division, but this year it looks like LSU will lap the competition with a loaded roster that features half of the top ten prospects in the division, including arguably the top prospect in the entire class in Dylan Crews. Three of the top ten prospects here are transfers, highlighting the incredible influx of talent heading to the SEC that will only continue to grow, and two are presently in the conversation for the first overall pick. Moving further down the list, there is a tightly packed tier of players all in that late second to fourth round range, with little daylight separating them at this point.

1. OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 2/26/2002. Hometown: Longwood, FL.
2022: 22 HR, .349/.463/.691, 5 SB, 56/42 K/BB in 62 games.
At this point, Dylan Crews has to be the favorite to go first overall. A first round talent out of Lake Mary High School in the Orlando area back in 2020, he struggled on the showcase circuit leading up to his senior season and the COVID shutdown didn't give him much of an opportunity to rebuild his stock. Many teams viewed him more as a second round talent at that point due to questions about swing and miss, but Crews knew who he was and pulled his name out of the draft so he could attend LSU. As it turns out, all he did was slash .356/.458/.677 with 40 home runs over 125 games, and with Ivan Melendez out of college baseball and into the Diamondbacks system, it's safe to say he's now the best hitter in the world at the amateur level. From the minute he stepped on campus in Baton Rouge, it has been readily apparent that he simply does not belong in college baseball, and opposing pitchers are paying dearly for that. So how does he do it? Crews possesses the most explosive right handed swing in college baseball, producing elite exit velocities with astonishing consistency. Hitting from a wide base, he can hit the snot out of the ball to any field, putting tremendous carry on his line drives that just never seem to come down, even when he goes the other way. Not just a power hitter, he also possesses a very strong eye at the plate and rarely expands the strike zone. With those big, explosive hacks he takes, there will always be some swing and miss and his strikeout rate actually rose from 15.3% as a freshman to 18.2% as a sophomore, but that's still a very solid number for a power hitter in the SEC and it hasn't inhibited his production for the Tigers one iota. His time with the US Collegiate National Team was a bit more up and down, but you'd be hard pressed to find any scouts that are particularly concerned by that. The fact of the matter is that Crews has simply bullied some of the best pitching in the country for two years now with no signs of slowing down, showing off the potential for 30+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages, perennial All Star-caliber production. He brings a solid glove, too, with above average speed and a plus arm that makes him a bit of a weapon out there. He started all 62 games for the Tigers in center field last season, and may have a shot to continue doing so in pro ball until a quicker defender pushes him to right field.

2. SS Jacob Gonzalez, Mississippi.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'2", 200 lbs. Born 5/30/2002. Hometown: Glendora, CA.
2022: 18 HR, .273/.405/.558, 4 SB, 32/50 K/BB in 65 games.
There may not be a more complete player in the country than Jacob Gonzalez. A well-known prospect out of high school, he set the college baseball world on fire as a true freshman by slashing .355/.443/.561 with twelve home runs and more walks (38) than strikeouts (34). That's just something you don't see often in the SEC. The power was just as potent in 2022 with 18 home runs, but his overall numbers weren't quite as gaudy (.273/.405/.558) as pitchers often pitched around him. Still, you'd be hard pressed to find a hole in his game. The Southern California native has an extremely disciplined approach at the plate, running a 16.7% walk rate and just a 10.7% strikeout rate in 2022 against some of the best pitching in the country. Hitting from a wide base, he does a great job of leaving the hands back and getting that coveted hip/shoulder separation that enables him to both track pitches deep as well as generate plus raw power from the left side. Gonzalez prefers to yank line drives to the pull side, and he has such strong pitch selection skills and plate coverage that he can get away with that approach easily even against elite competition. Not just an elite hitter, he also provides plenty of value on defense as well. Gonzalez has started all 132 games at shortstop for Ole Miss the past two seasons, showing off a plus arm and solid feel for the position that will give him a chance to stick there in pro ball. He's not the quickest player on the diamond, though, so a stronger defender may be able to push him to third base if he slows down at all with age. Still, that would be an above average glove at third combined with a 25+ home run bat and high on-base percentages, a perennial All Star projection if it works out. The discipline and underlying ability to hit the ball hard point to a high floor as a solid everyday third baseman, and with a late May birthday, he's fairly young as far as college juniors go. This may be the safest pick in the draft at this point combined with a very high ceiling. He's very much in play for the first overall pick at this point.

3. RHP/DH Paul Skenes, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'6", 235 lbs. Born 5/29/2002. Hometown: Lake Forest, CA.
2022 (@ Air Force): 10-3, 2.73 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 96/30 K/BB in 85.2 innings.
2022 (@ Air Force): 13 HR, .314/.412/.634, 0 SB, 40/21 K/BB in 52 games.
Make that three players in a row who had fantastic true freshman seasons, though Paul Skenes did his damage in the Mountain West as opposed to Dylan Crews and Jacob Gonzalez in the elite SEC. Still, as an 18 year old in 2021, Skenes hit .410/.486/.697 with 32 extra base hits in 48 games, all while hopping on the mound and putting up a 2.70 ERA out of the Air Force bullpen. Like Gonzalez (and unlike Crews), his bat came back to earth a little bit in 2022 but he still hit .314/.412/.634 in 52 games, while his pitching took a big step forward and he held down the Friday night starter role all season long. He is one of numerous famous transfers heading to Baton Rouge this spring, and he does so as perhaps the best two-way player in the country. He's a better prospect as a pitcher right now, even if he's a career .367/.453/.669 hitter. Skenes has seen his fastball steadily tick up throughout his college career, from the low 90's early on into the mid 90's more often lately and touching as high as 99 in the fall. Coming from a three quarters slot, he puts high spin rates and good carry on the pitch in addition to tough angle from a crossfire delivery. He adds a hard, tight slider that plays average for now and stands out more for velocity than movement, while his changeup flashes plus at its best and gives him a weapon to play off his fastball. The 6'6" righty also shows improving command and spots the ball especially well to his glove side, so if he can miss a few more bats with that slider, he becomes a very intriguing #2 starter candidate. At the plate, Skenes packs plenty of punch as well. He shows above average raw power from the right side and was an on-base machine at Air Force, though those long arms that help him send the ball deep also lead to some swing and miss concerns with a strikeout rate over 20% in both of his seasons so far. As a below average athlete that may find himself as a 1B/DH type in the long run, there will be a lot of pressure on the bat to come along, but that transition from the Mountain West to the SEC will be no easy task. If he does keep hitting against that famous gauntlet, suddenly a unique prospect becomes even more interesting. To boot, the Southern California native is young for the class with a late May birthday, in fact one day before fellow SoCal product Gonzalez.

4. RHP Nathan Dettmer, Texas A&M.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 215 lbs. Born 4/26/2002. Hometown: San Antonio, TX.
2022: 6-3, 4.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 82/25 K/BB in 92 innings.
Nathan Dettmer is yet to put it all together in College Station, but he has the stuff to become the next great Aggie arm. He earned a dozen starts as a freshman with promising results, then brought a 3.13 ERA into the month of May this year but embarked on a late season slide that saw him allow thirty earned runs over a seven start stretch, ballooning that ERA to 5.40. He salvaged the season with a dominant showing against Notre Dame in the College World Series, bringing his final mark down to 4.99, but the best is likely still ahead for Dettmer. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his sinker and ran it as high as 99 in the fall, and if he can maintain that higher velocity going forward, we could be in turbo sinker territory. The San Antonio native also flashes plus with his slider with nasty bite at its best, while his changeup plays well off his sinker to give him a third above average pitch. However, despite a big league arsenal, he has struggled to miss bats so far with the Aggies and ran just a 20.1% strikeout rate last year. His control is ahead of his command to this point and he gets hurt when his pitches catch too much plate, so next on his to do list will be refining that command and potentially even creating more deception to keep hitters from picking up his stuff out of the hand. The 6'4" righty has the stuff and frame to become a mid-rotation starter at the big league level, but he'll have to miss more bats this year for evaluators to be comfortable even if he projects as more of a ground ball guy in pro ball. Like many other names on this list, his age will be a bonus, not turning 21 until late April.

5. OF Colton Ledbetter, Mississippi State.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'1", 200 lbs. Born 11/15/2001. Hometown: Hoover, AL.

2022 (@ Samford): 16 HR, .318/.407/.640, 14 SB, 28/30 K/BB in 57 games.
The SEC is filled with famous transfers like Paul Skenes, Tommy White, Hurston Waldrep, and Maui Ahuna, among many others, but don't sleep on Samford transfer Colton Ledbetter. Auburn struck gold when they took Sonny DiChiara from the Bulldogs a year ago, and Mississippi State is looking to do the same with Ledbetter. Not only is Ledbetter following DiChiara's path from Samford to the SEC, but they're actually from the same hometown of Hoover in the Birmingham suburbs, home of the SEC Tournament. He's coming off a huge season at Samford in which he showed a broad array of tools, which he backed up with a strong .380/.478/.675 run through the NECBL, one of the top non-Cape summer leagues in the country. Ledbetter has a very athletic 6'1" frame that he deploys into a loose left handed swing, channeling that strength into big bat speed and separation that helps him project for plus power. Not only that, but he walked more (12.1%) than he struck out (11.3%) against a solid SoCon schedule and nearly did so again in the NECBL. His combination of power and plate discipline should help make the jump to the SEC much more manageable, where he could really rise up boards with more exposure. Ledbetter is also a good runner that stole 26 bases in 30 attempts between Samford and the NECBL, giving him an outside shot to stick in center field if he doesn't slow down with age. Even in left field, he has the bat to be an every day player at the big league level.

6. 1B Tre' Morgan, Louisiana State.
Bat: L. Throw: L. 6'1", 190 lbs. Born 7/16/2002. Hometown: New Orleans, LA.
2022: 5 HR, .324/.414/.462, 0 SB, 26/25 K/BB in 62 games.
This is a profile you don't see often, but it's one you really, really want to see work out. Tre' Morgan joined Dylan Crews in putting up a fantastic freshman season at LSU in 2021, slashing .357/.441/.526 with six home runs despite not turning 19 until after the season, then nearly matched it in 2022 at .324/.414/.462 with five home runs. Morgan is an extremely disciplined hitter in the box with a plus hit tool, utilizing a short, simple left handed swing that helps him guide the barrel to the ball with consistency and helping him post just an 8.8% strikeout rate last year. While he can elevate the ball when he needs to, that's not really his game and the power hasn't shown up much in games, and it's unlikely that he'll ever be a big home run threat. For a first baseman, that's unusual even if he projects to get on base at a high clip, but Morgan is no ordinary first baseman. He has tremendous range, footwork, and instincts around the bag that make him an elite defender by that position's standards, bailing out his infielders on poor throws on one play and then going over his shoulder to catch a fading foul popup on the next. An above average athlete with an above average arm, he would make a very solid third baseman if he were right handed, but unfortunately that's not on the table for the southpaw. It's a profile reminiscent of Evan White, the seventeenth overall pick out of Kentucky in 2017, though Morgan has the advantage of batting left handed even if he is a couple inches shorter. The New Orleans native doesn't project to go quite that high, fitting more in the third round range right now. White doubled his home run total from five to ten between his sophomore and junior seasons, and if Morgan can do something like that and show average or better power in 2023, he could creep closer to that range. To boot, he's very young for a junior and won't turn 21 until right around draft time, giving him extra time to tack on a little more physicality.

7. RHP Christian Little, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 210 lbs. Born 7/5/2003. Hometown: St. Louis, MO.
2022 (@ Vanderbilt): 1-2, 3.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 46/17 K/BB in 38.2 innings.
Christian Little is one of the most enigmatic prospects in the SEC, likely to draw very split opinions as he enters his junior season. Arguably the top arm in the 2021 high school class entering the season, he instead enrolled early at Vanderbilt well shy of his 18th birthday. Working as a midweek starter, he showed promise but was hit around a bit as you'd probably expect from a 17 year old, then took a modest step forward as a swingman in 2022 as he dropped his ERA from 5.48 to 3.72, upped his strikeout rate from 25.4% to 27.7%, and improved his walk rate from 11.4% to 10.2%. Heading to the Cape Cod League, he had an opportunity to put it together on a big stage, but never found his groove there either. So now, that leaves us with a post-hype prospect that never put things together at Vanderbilt but is still set to play his entire junior season at just 19 years old as he transfers to LSU. Little sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach 98 with riding action, adding a cutter, curveball, and changeup that all flash above average even if none have stepped forward to become a true strikeout pitch. Control is ahead of command here as the St. Louis native tends to get hit over the plate, and he'll need to get more consistent with at least one of if not multiple offspeed pitches to navigate pro lineups going forward. The good news is that given his extreme youth, he could choose to go back to school next year and still be very young for the 2024 class if things don't come together in 2023, even though his eligibility will run out before he's old enough to drink. At this point, I am choosing to bank on Little's youth, arm strength, and frame and I think he'll figure things out enough to crack it as a big league starting pitcher.

8. LHP Grayson Hitt, Alabama.
Bat: R. Throw: L. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 12/11/2001. Hometown: Germantown, TN.

2022: 4-3, 5.34 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 68/30 K/BB in 60.2 innings.

Grayson Hitt was one of the best pitching prospects to reach campus following the 2020 draft, but he struggled mightily as a freshman before landing a full time role in the rotation in 2022. Still, his 5.34 ERA and so-so peripherals left room for improvement. As it turns out, that improvement showed up in a big way in the fall, where he was Alabama's most impressive arm and set himself up for a potential breakout in 2023. His fastball now runs up to 97 while sitting in the low to mid 90's, albeit with steeper angle. His slider has emerged as an above average pitch with two plane bite, while his curveball and changeup represent fringier show-me options that he's still working to hone. While he didn't miss a ton of bats as a sophomore (24.5%), he actually bumped his strikeout rate up to 26.6% in the Cape Cod League over the summer and could continue to rise in 2023. With a projectable 6'3" frame and a repeatable delivery, he looks the part of a starting pitcher so long as his command continues to make the necessary improvements. He has an up arrow next to his name right now and those highest on him think he could pitch his way into the first round with continued success in the spring, though he fits more in the second to third round range right now.

9. RHP Grant Taylor, Louisiana State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 220 lbs. Born 5/20/2002. Hometown: Florence, AL.
2022: 4-1, 5.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 39/21 K/BB in 31 innings.
In 2018, a big right handed pitcher graduated from Florence High School in North Alabama and made his way to LSU, where he would be draft-eligible as a sophomore and earned a second round selection from the Nationals in 2020. Grant Taylor is hoping to follow the exact same path as Cole Henry three years later, and despite a mediocre freshman season, a very strong run through the Cape Cod League (2.14 ERA, 30/2 K/BB in 21 IP) has him in the right position. Taylor's fastball has been steadily ticking up, now sitting in the low to mid 90's and frequently reaching 95. He throws a four seam, two seam, and cutter, so he can really vary the shape of his fastball to work in different locations and against different types of hitters. His best pitch is an above average hammer curveball that flashes plus with hard bite, giving him a true strikeout option, while his slider and changeup are also solid pitches he can pull out when he needs them. It's a strong four pitch mix from a durable frame, but the command has come and gone so far. He ran a 13.9% walk rate last year at LSU then lived in the zone on the Cape, so how that balances out this year will be closely watched. If he can hold onto average command, it's a mid-rotation starter profile, but there is one drawback that's partially out of his control – LSU has an incredibly crowded rotation outlook this year between Skenes, Little, Blake Money, Ty Floyd, Samuel Dutton, and Will Hellmers, among others, and it may not be easy to earn innings as a starter.

10. 2B Cole Foster, Auburn.
Bat: S. Throw: R. 6'1", 195 lbs. Born 10/8/2001. Hometown: Plano, TX.

2022: 9 HR, .267/.395/.488, 2 SB, 46/29 K/BB in 53 games.
One of the more famous names to reach campus from the 2020 high school class, Cole Foster didn't play much in 2021 but showed well as a full time player in 2022 and is looking to build on that foundation in 2023. He brings average tools across the board, even if he lacks a true carrying tool. A switch hitter, Foster takes good at bats and finds good pitches to hit, frequently barreling the ball up from both sides of the plate. He did run a 21.3% strikeout rate last year, which is a little higher than you'd like to see for this profile, so it's probably more of an average hit tool than above average. He has an average build at 6'1", and as he adds strength he has the quick bat and feel for the barrel to tap into above average, 20+ home run power at his ceiling, though that power is closer to average right now. It's not the most exciting offensive profile, but I like the way he's trending and I get a good feeling overall that he'll develop into at least a useful part time bat. A decent athlete, he has the ability to play all over the diamond, though he's not quite explosive enough for shortstop or center field. He likely profiles best as an offensive-minded second baseman, but the flexibility should help him move up.

Honorable Mentions
The last five names on this list are all pretty close, with many being more or less interchangeable, and there are a couple names that just missed the list that fit in the same tier. Texas A&M first baseman Jack Moss is coming off a huge year for the Aggies (.380/.437/.520), showing big exit velocities from the left side. His swing can get a bit swoopy and his inside-out approach doesn't lend itself to much over the fence power, which is a question for a 1B/LF defensive profile. Meanwhile Arkansas righty Jaxon Wiggins has one of the best fastballs in the conference, sitting in the mid 90's and touching triple digits with explosive riding life. For now, he's kind of a one tool player with a fringy slider that stands out more for its velocity than its movement in addition to a solid changeup that flashes above average at its best. His command is fringy and he ran a 13.8% walk rate last year, and I think it comes down to what MLB development organization he ends up in – a team like the Dodgers or Mariners could make him an impact starting pitcher, but in the Nationals or Tigers organizations he likely ends up a middle reliever.

Ole Miss, Texas Tech, and Gunnar Hoglund’s coming out party

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on February 25th.

It was a gorgeous, 73 degree day at Globe Life Field on Sunday, something that wouldn’t seem out of the ordinary in Arlington, Texas, even in February. However, it stood in stark contrast to the previous week, when temperatures plummeted near zero in the very same parking lot and millions of Texans were left in the dark. I spent the week huddled in my dark apartment with ice creeping through the window frames, alternating between eating canned tuna and braving the snowy, hour-long drive through line at the Whataburger, which served as a metaphorical soup kitchen for a desperate Metroplex. By Friday, when the State Farm College Baseball Showdown was set to start, temperatures had finally peaked just above freezing, but the tournament was delayed by a day as the Lone Star State continued to grapple with busted pipes, unsafe drinking water, and continued power outages.

On the way into the ballpark on Sunday, there was an extra light-heartedness in the air, as thawed-out fans made their way past the last melting piles of snow and laughed. “I thought it was supposed to be colder today, but it’s beautiful out,” a man decked out in Red Raider red exclaimed. We were on our way to see Texas Tech match up with Ole Miss in a top ten matchup – well, technically every game that weekend was a top ten matchup. Once the TCU Horned Frogs downed the Mississippi State Bulldogs in the morning tilt, the Rebels and Red Raiders took the field.

Gunnar Hoglund

The Rebel ace could have easily started Friday, but I was lucky enough to catch him on a Sunday. Gunnar Hoglund has long been a household name for scouts, ever since he was the 36th overall pick by the Pirates out of Fivay High School in the Tampa suburbs in 2018. At the time, he showed good command of a low to mid 90’s fastball that had touched 96, but his secondary pitches needed refinement and the Pirates couldn’t meet his asking price. The big righty headed north to Oxford, Mississippi, where he held his own as a freshman in the SEC: 5.29 ERA, 53/14 K/BB in 68 IP. He came out much stronger in 2020, posting a 1.16 ERA and a 37/4 K/BB over 23.1 innings.

Coming into the season, scouts had a lot of questions for Hoglund to answer. After flashing a fastball up to 96 in high school, he regularly pitched in the upper 80’s and scraped 91-92 at his fastest for the Rebels. That 90-ish fastball came with impeccable command, arguably the best in the class, a product of a simple, clean, very easy delivery. It was clear Hoglund could throw harder if he wanted to. He had set a loopy curveball from his high school days off to the side in favor of a tighter slider, while his changeup remained his third pitch. So, we all knew he had both the arm strength and command, but would we ever see it at the same time?

Gunnar answered that in the first inning on Sunday. Right out of the gate, he sat 94-95 in the first inning and touched 96 multiple times. The slider looked sharper, too, coming in at 85-87, a few ticks higher than it had been in the past. Dru Baker, Cal Conley, and Dylan Neuse went down in order in the first, and off we went. He didn’t hold that velocity all game, instead ticking down to the 92-94 range for the bulk of his start before coming out 90-92 in his sixth and final inning, but even at the end he was throwing as hard as he ever had in Rebel blue.

While his command wasn’t pinpoint, Hoglund used his riding fastball to induce plenty of whiffs up in the zone, while his tight slider missed a number of bats in its own right. There were blemishes, such as a two run home run from Nate Rombach and an opposite field bomb from Dylan Neuse, both off fastballs, and he did walk three. However, two of the three walks were full count battles that took hard battles (Neuse) and tough takes (Kurt Wilson) to get there. In all, I was not concerned with Hoglund’s strike throwing despite his own high standards.

The final stat line wasn’t the shiniest: 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 11 K.

But I choose to look at those eleven strikeouts (of twenty two batters faced), a factor of his newfound stuff. Outside of those few isolated incidents of hard contact from Rombach and Neuse, two extremely talented hitters in their own right, the majority of the Texas Tech lineup was overwhelmed by the stuff and struggled to touch him. Hoglund showed the same effortless delivery he’s always had, and as he gets more comfortable throwing in this higher velocity band, I think his command will remain plus. He was also flipping in that slider much more often than he has in the past, something else he’ll need to get comfortable with as opposed to pitching mostly off the fastball. Going forward, he’ll need to show that command, and he’ll also need to work in a changeup more often if he wants to go in the first round. But Sunday was a big step towards that.

Micah Dallas

Toeing the rubber against Hoglund was Texas Tech’s Micah Dallas, himself one of the top prospects in the Big 12. However, the North Texas native was not as sharp pitching forty miles from his hometown of Aubrey. Homeschooled in high school, he was unfazed by the Lonely Lubbock Lights (big props if you can tell me which West Texan sings that song) and was strong as a freshman (4.03 ERA, 84/28 K/BB). Then, like Hoglund, he was lights out as a sophomore in 2020 (0.57 ERA, 23/1 K/BB in 15.2 IP).

Dallas sat 90-91 for most of his outing, throwing up a few more 89’s later in the start. He leaned heavily on his low 80’s curveball, a pitch which flashes plus at its best. His delivery is not nearly as smooth as Hoglund’s, but he throws with conviction and pounds the zone nonetheless. From the start, it was clear that he did not have his best stuff, which is extremely dangerous against a lineup like Ole Miss, but he worked through it and held the Rebels off the board for the first two innings. However, they gradually began to figure him out, putting together more and more hard contact and broke through in the third. He never made it out of that inning, finishing with five runs (two earned) on three hits, two walks, and two strikeouts in 2.2 innings.

The Rebels’ five run third didn’t come out of nowhere. Jacob Gonzalez blasted a ball into the right field seats in the first inning, but it landed just to the right of the foul pole and he struck out later in the at bat. Ben Van Cleve roped a hot shot to third in the second inning, only to see it snared by Cal Conley. Trey LaFleur scorched one right at left fielder Max Marusak in the third. A few batters later, Gonzalez finally got him with a home run to the left of the foul pole, while Hayden Dunhurst and Hayden Leatherwood joined the party with singles of their own.

Micah Dallas has some work to do to prove he can start. The 89-91 velocity won’t quite be enough, and he already throws with some effort and lacks projection in his 6’2″ frame. But the building blocks are there. The curveball is an above average pitch that looks plus at its best, and it just flattened out as he leaned on it more and more heavily on Sunday. The Rebel hitters were able to sit back and wait for it. It also didn’t help that he fell behind in the count at times. The stuff played great out of the bullpen last year, and if he is forced into that role in pro ball, he could thrive with his competitiveness and ability to throw his stuff with convicion.

Brendan Girton

Once Leatherwood’s single knocked Dallas from the game, Texas Tech brought in true freshman Brendan Girton for his collegiate debut. Hailing from the tiny town of Gage in northwestern Oklahoma, Girton was a notable draft prospect at nearby Shattuck High School but headed across the South Plains to campus in Lubbock. Immediately, the 6’1″, 230 pound righty put his power arm on display. In 3.1 innings, he would strike out four batters while allowing two hits and one walk, and none crossed the plate.

Girton ended the third inning on a pair of fastballs at 94, then touched 96 a few times in the fourth before dipping to more 92-93 in the fifth. He must have known the sixth would be his final inning, because he ratcheted it back up to 96 a few times to close it out. He also flashed a low 80’s slider, but really struggled to get it down. Out of the dozen or so that he threw, no more than a couple were located below the belt. Still, the fastball was effective enough to keep Rebel hitters off the slider, and overall he was the most effective Red Raider pitcher of the day. Going forward, Girton will have to work on locating that slider better, and he has a reliever outlook for now.

Hayden Dunhurst, Jacob Gonzalez

Hayden Dunhurst and Jacob Gonzalez may have grown up in very different places, but they’re two of the most talented recruits to make it to campus in Oxford over the last couple of seasons and they both had loud days at the dish. Dunhurst was a nationally-known name at Pearl River Central High School in the small southern Mississippi town of Carriere, then stayed in state for school. Gonzalez, meanwhile, was a talented draft prospect in his own right, coming all the way across the country from the Los Angeles suburb of Glendora. They were both in Arlington this weekend, and both showed why they are the future of Ole Miss baseball.

Dunhurst had already elevated his stock with five home runs in seventeen games as a freshman last year, placing himself near the top of the 2022 draft. He had himself a nice game, starting off by working a four pitch walk off Micah Dallas. In his next at bat, he lined a single into right field to give the Rebels a lead they wouldn’t give back, and he showed off his all-fields approach by lining a 93 MPH Brendan Girton fastball the other way in the sixth inning, though it was right at left fielder Max Marusak. He finished his night by knocking a ball straight into the dirt in front of home plate, only to be tagged out by catcher Nate Rombach before he left the batters box.

Gonzalez, meanwhile, had the louder night with the bat. In his first at bat of his second career game, he nearly took Dallas deep but hooked it just to the right of the foul pole. The ball had enough distance to get out, but it will show up as a strikeout in the box score. He righted the ship in the next at bat, blasting a hanging Dallas curveball to the correct side of the foul pole to tie the game at two apiece. And the next time up, he turned around 94 from Girton for a single to right. He finished his night with a strikeout at the hands of veteran lefty Eli Riechmann, but I came away extremely impressed with his bat. Gonzalez is just 18 years old, so keep an eye on him for the 2023 draft.

Nate Rombach, Dylan Neuse

Texas Tech had some interesting bats as well. Nate Rombach and Dylan Neuse both showed off for their hometown fans as sons of the Metroplex. Rombach attended the same Mansfield Legacy High School as Noah Syndergaard, then took Lubbock by storm by blasting six home runs in nineteen games as a freshman. In his first start of 2021, Rombach announced his presence loudly by blasting a 93 MPH Gunnar Hoglund fastball over the left center field fence, the first home run Hoglund had allowed in over 32 innings. In his next at bat, he got Hoglund again, this time squaring up an 87 MPH slider for a single to left field. Redshirt senior Austin Miller gave him a different look in his third at bat, and he ripped a mid 70’s curveball foul. Miller ended up catching him looking for the strikeout, so you won’t see it in the box score, but Rombach absolutely scorched three different pitches during the day – a fastball at 93, a hard slider, and a slow curveball. Max Cioffi got him swinging on a low 90’s fastball in the ninth, but Romach had already made his point for the day.

Dylan Neuse has been around a bit longer, as he has already been eligible for three different drafts before this one. The younger brother of Dodgers infielder and Oklahoma alum Sheldon Neuse, Dylan began his career at McLennan JC in Waco before transferring to Texas Tech. He hit .298/.408/.494 as a sophomore in 2019 then .355/.438/.487 as a junior in 2020, but went undrafted in the shortened event. Gunnar Hoglund struck out the Fort Worth native in that first-inning-heard-round-the-country mentioned earlier, but Neuse made adjustments and got his payback. He worked a really tough full count walk off the command master in the third inning, showing off his exceptional plate discipline. Then in the sixth inning, he really got Hoglund, taking 92 the other way for an opposite field home run. Anybody concerned about the power output from the 5’9″ right handed hitter likely came away less so after seeing that. Neuse did drop a fly ball near the warning track in center field, which wasn’t a great look but he might not have much experience playing in indoor stadiums. In all, he profiles as an all-around player who doesn’t stand out with any particular tool, but can beat you with strong feel for the barrel and the ability to make his tools play up.

Peyton Pallette

We’ll finish off with Peyton Pallette, who started on the mound for Arkansas against Texas. I needed to get home for something and couldn’t stay the whole time, but I caught the first two innings and I’m glad I did. Benton High School outside of Little Rock has been good to Arkansas before, sending them Cliff Lee, and they might have struck gold again. Pallette got into four games as a true freshman last year, allowing three runs (one earned) over 5.2 innings in relief. He wasn’t the most likely candidate to start a top ten matchup on a loaded pitching staff that includes Patrick Wicklander, Connor Noland, Zebulon Vermillion, and even freshman Nick Griffin, so I was slightly disappointed to I didn’t get to see a bigger name.

It took precisely one pitch, a 95 mile per hour fastball, to realize I was in for a treat. Before I could blink, Pallette had set down Austin Todd, Eric Kennedy, and Mike Antico in order, and this wasn’t just any trio; the three had 373 games and 342 hits combined under their belts, making for one of the most experienced, disciplined, and consistent top three’s of any lineup in the country. They didn’t look like it Sunday. Pallette never threw a fastball under 95 as he blew pitch after pitch by them, snapping off a sharp breaking ball as well that nobody could touch.

It only took Texas starter Tristan Stevens ten pitches to work through the bottom of the first inning, so I barely had a chance to even process what I just saw before he was back on the mound again. As brilliant as the first inning was, the second was better. Pallette set down Zach Zubia, Trey Faltine, and Ivan Melendez on strikes, the latter two on six straight fastballs at 95. Unreal. Unfortunately I had to leave after that sixth straight strike, but he went on to toss 4.1 shutout innings and strike out eight of the seventeen batters he faced. He wasn’t a priority follow coming into the season, but with just one start he’s rocketed himself into 2022 draft conversation with that wicked fastball/curveball combination.

2017 Draft Review: San Francisco Giants

First 5 rounds: Heliot Ramos (1-19), Jacob Gonzalez (2-58), Seth Corry (3-96), Garrett Cave (4-126), Jason Bahr (5-156)
Also notable: Bryce Johnson (6-186), John Gavin (8-246), Rob Calabrese (10-306), Doug Still (11-336), Orlando Garcia (15-456)

In my opinion, the Giants came away with a pretty unexciting draft haul. There is some upside here, but early in the draft, there were better options available when they made their selections. Ultimately, the Ramos selection will make or break this draft, because if he pans out, it will be a lot easier to swallow what I see as reaches with Gonzalez and Corry. Interestingly, though their first three picks were high schoolers, the Giants took 30 consecutive college or junior college players in rounds four through 33.

1-19: OF Heliot Ramos (my rank: 37)
Ramos was difficult to evaluate due to the lack of recent public video, but he is one of the biggest wild cards in this draft when it comes to his on-field projection. Not turning 18 until September, he is one of the youngest players in the class, and he had some of the most helium in the class as well. He showcases the loud tools scouts love, including easy plus speed and power, and he has the ceiling of a Carlos Beltran or Alfonso Soriano dual-threat player. As one would expect from a 17 year old Puerto Rican, he is also extremely raw, and his approach at the plate needs significant refinement before he is ready to face higher level competition. He has a simple, quick swing, so his refinement going forward is going to be much more about adjusting to higher levels than it will be about mechanics. Ramos signed for just over $3.1 million, at slot for the 19th pick.

2-58: 1B/3B Jacob Gonzalez (my rank: 146)
The son of former World Series hero Luis Gonzalez, Jacob is a power high school bat from Arizona. Gonzalez could easily hit 30 home runs in the majors, but he'll have to significantly improve his contact, which is below average at this point. His swing mechanics can be inconsistent and swing and miss has been an issue even at the high school level, and as a likely first baseman or left fielder, the pressure will be on his bat. He's also somewhat old for his class, having turned 19 in June. Gonzalez signed for $950,000, which is $171,300 below slot.

3-96: LHP Seth Corry (my rank: 123)
A third straight high schooler and in my opinion, at least a second straight reach, Corry struggles with command but can sit in the low 90's with a straight fastball and a good curveball. While the fastball/curveball package is a good one despite the lack of life on his fastball, the fact that Corry can't command the fastball and the fact that he has trouble repeating his delivery lead some evaluators to think he's best off in the bullpen, where he can run his fastball into the mid 90's and won't have to worry about a changeup. He's a 6'2" lefty, which is a plus, but he's a risky pick. Corry signed for $1 million, which is $441,500 above slot.

4-126: RHP Garrett Cave (my rank: 99)
Coming from DII Tampa, Cave is an interesting arm to say the least. In relief, he can run his fastball into the upper 90's with a power slider, though the fastball, like Corry's, is straight and he can't command it. He has a chance to be a fast mover and reach the majors as a bullpen arm quickly as long as he can throw the ball somewhere near the strike zone, but the Giants could choose to make him a starter and pray they can fix his command. He has done a good job of maintaining mid 90's velocity even as a starter. Cave signed for $417,200, at slot for the 126th pick.

5-156: RHP Jason Bahr (unranked)
Who doesn't like a fun success story? Bahr didn't get to pitch in 2014, made just one appearance in 2015, and was cut from the University of Central Florida baseball team for the 2016 season. Pitching well over the summer, new head coach Greg Lovelady picked him back up and stuck him on the UCF pitching staff for the 2017 season, and Bahr shined. Over 24 games (five starts), the 6'5" righty went 0-2 with a 2.97 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts to just 15 walks in 60.2 innings. He sits 93-94 in relief and commands it well enough, though his secondaries will need significant work if he wants to reach the majors. Bahr signed for $250,000, which is $60,800 below slot.

Others: 6th rounder Bryce Johnson was a three year starter at Sam Houston State, where he made a name for himself with his advanced approach at the plate, plus speed, and plus defense in center field. He has almost no power, but he was a consistent performer all three years in Huntsville, slashing .338/.418/.409 with three home runs and 69 stolen bases in 184 games. He had his best year as a junior this year, slashing .350/.453/.433 with 33 stolen bases, and he profiles best as a fourth outfielder going forward but with a chance to be Denard Span or Ben Revere. 8th rounder John Gavin was a three year performer at Cal State Fullerton, finishing a successful career 21-8 with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 53 games (48 starts). The 6'6" lefty sits around 90 with his fastball and has below average secondaries, leaving him very little margin for error, but he commands everything well and is extremely durable, giving him a chance to be a back-end starter. 10th rounder Rob Calabrese was the star of the University of Illinois-Chicago's offense this year, slashing .353/.425/.583 with eight home runs in 56 games, striking out in just 10.7% of his at bats. As a catcher, the pressure will be more on his glove than his bat, and he could hit his way into a back-up catcher's role. 11th rounder Doug Still burst onto the scene at Missouri State as a transfer from Jefferson College, going 8-3 with a 2.88 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in his first season in Division I baseball, striking out 89 and walking 27 in 103 innings. Missouri State has produced a lot of great pitching in the past, including Ross Detwiler, Brad Ziegler, Shaun Marcum, and Jon Harris, and Still could work his way up as a durable lefty. 15th rounder Orlando Garcia improved every year at Texas Tech, finishing with a solid junior year in which he slashed .305/.386/.550 with 13 home runs in 59 games, and he's a great defender who can stick at shortstop in pro ball. Plate discipline is one thing holding him back, as he struck out in 24.5% of his plate appearances and walked in just 10.3%. He could be a utility man down the line.