The AL version of this list was recently published. Here is one guy to watch on each team whose name could be much more familiar by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season given in parentheses.
Atlanta Braves: OF Ronald Acuna (Age 20)
High A/AA/AAA: 21 HR, .325/.374/.522, 44 SB, 155 wRC+ in 139 games
There are more than a few players primed for breakouts on the Braves, but perhaps none has a higher ceiling for 2017 than Ronald Acuna, the 20 year old sensation who tore up the three highest minor league levels as a teenager last season. Somehow, he got better with each promotion, and between High Class A Florida (28 games), AA Mississippi (57 games), and AAA Gwinnett (54 games), he crushed 21 home runs, stole 44 bases, and slashed .325/.374/.522 with 144 strikeouts to 43 walks in a total of 139 games. The K/BB ratio might not seem to be the prettiest, but his strikeout rate dropped with each level (from 31.7% in High A to 23% in AA to 19.8% in AAA) and his walk rate remained fairly static despite the increase in competition (6.3% to 7.4% to 7%). He'll likely begin 2018 with Gwinnett again to finish ironing out some holes in his approach, but he'll probably be up by the end of April and from there, the sky is the limit. Ender Inciarte is holding down center field, but Lane Adams is far from entrenched in left field and 34 year old Nick Markakis shouldn't be too much of a road block in right. Long story short, when he's ready, which should be very soon if not now, there will be a spot for him to play every day. With his combination of seemingly every tool, he's a star in the making. With that, don't overlook the guys listed below as others; I listed an extra one just because there are so many.
Others: 2B Ozzie Albies, SS Dansby Swanson, LHP Luiz Gohara, LHP Max Fried
Miami Marlins: OF Lewis Brinson (Age 24)
MLB: 2 HR, .106/.236/.277, 1 SB, 30 wRC+ in 21 games
AAA: 13 HR, .331/.400/.562, 11 SB, 146 wRC+ in 76 games
Perhaps the most exciting player to come to Miami in this offseason's complete tear-down was outfielder Lewis Brinson, a South Florida native bursting with tools. He hits and he hits it hard, and with his speed and defense, he's a complete player. While it is true that AAA Colorado Springs plays in a hitters' park in a generally hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, Brinson's .331/.400/.562 slash line is still very impressive and at the very least proves he's major league ready. Though his .106/.236/.277 slash line with the Brewers was a bit less inspiring, he did draw seven walks for a very respectable 12.7% rate, proving he wasn't completely overmatched. Additionally, three of his five hits went for extra bases (including two home runs), so his power transferred up in the small sample as well. With Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Ichiro Suzuki all gone from last year's outfield, the stage is set for him to try his hand as a starter in the Marlins' outfield.
Others: 3B Brian Anderson, RHP Sandy Alcantara, OF Magneuris Sierra
New York Mets: SS Amed Rosario (Age 22)
MLB: 4 HR, .248/.271/.394, 7 SB, 74 wRC+ in 46 games
AAA: 7 HR, .328/.367/.466, 19 SB, 116 wRC+ in 94 games
All projection and no track record as recently as the start of the 2016 season, Amed Rosario broke out by slashing .324/.374/.459 with 19 stolen bases between High Class A Port St. Lucie and AA Binghamton that year, then continued to mash with a .328/.367/.466 line and 19 more stolen bases at AAA Las Vegas in 2017. This performance earned a call-up for the 21 year old shortstop, who held his own by slashing .248/.271/.394 across 46 major league games. Rosario is a great defender who has proven bat to ball and running abilities, looking like a future leadoff man if he can learn to take a walk. Unfortunately, the latter may take some time, considering his horrendous 49/3 strikeout to walk ratio with the Mets this past season, though his 87/40 and 67/23 marks in the minors in 2016 and 2017, respectively, are much better. I don't think Rosario will be an instant star in New York, but 2018 could see him begin to build towards that goal.
Others: 1B Dominic Smith, RHP Robert Gsellman, RHP Seth Lugo
Philadelphia Phillies: SS J.P. Crawford (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .214/.356/.300, 1 SB, 83 wRC+ in 23 games
AAA: 15 HR, .243/.351/.405, 5 SB, 114 wRC+ in 127 games
One of the most highly regarded Phillies prospects in recent memory, Crawford has seen his star fade just a little bit upon reaching AAA. In 87 games with Lehigh Valley in 2016, he slashed just .244/.328/.318, and he wasn't much better in the first half of 2017, slashing .211/.328/.330 in 76 games. However, he turned it around in the second half, slashing .287/.385/.513 in 51 games for the IronPigs and earning a call-up to Philadelphia in September. His bat was light in those 23 games (.214/.356/.300), but the second half turnaround was just what the Phillies wanted to see. Crawford should have an easier time adjusting to the majors than most minor leaguers because of his extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him to a solid 97/79 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA this year. Even after his promotion to the majors, he held a 22/16 ratio, showing he could spot major league fastballs and offspeeds, so now the only step left is for him to start punishing mistakes.
Others: RHP Nick Pivetta, C Jorge Alfaro, RHP Ben Lively
Washington Nationals: OF Victor Robles (Age 20-21)
MLB: 0 HR, .250/.308/.458, 0 SB, 96 wRC+ in 13 games
High A/AA: 10 HR, .300/.382/.493, 27 SB, 147 wRC+ in 114 games
We round out the NL East with yet another high ceiling, athletic position player, and Victor Robles may end up being the best of them all. Robles, who doesn't turn 21 until May 19th, is currently the youngest player ever to suit up in the majors, and joins Ozzie Albies (January birthday) as one of only two MLB players born in the year 1997. Robles began the season at High Class A Potomac, but slashed .289/.377/.495 with 16 stolen bases in 77 games to force a promotion to AA Harrisburg, where he kept on hitting to the tune of a .324/.394/.489 slash line and 11 stolen bases in 37 games. In the majors for the month of September, he put up a respectable .250/.308/.458 line over 13 games, showing that he is at least ready for a shot. He'll likely start with some seasoning in AAA, but once he comes up, he can impact the game in a multitude of ways. For starters, he's blazing fast and has a cannon arm, making him a potential Gold Glove defender in center field, and he has great plate discipline for such a young player. Combine that with his athleticism and natural feel for the barrel, and he can post high on-base percentages and be a perfect leadoff man. The only area where he doesn't excel is power, but he should generate average pop and with his strong, athletic build, could max out as an Andrew McCutchen-type player. On top of it all, he is considered to have a great head on his shoulders, and that will be invaluable when his chance in the big leagues comes, likely sooner rather than later.
Others: RHP A.J. Cole, RHP Erick Fedde, OF Andrew Stevenson
Chicago Cubs: RHP Eddie Butler (Age 27)
MLB: 4-3, 3.95 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 30/28 K/BB, 54.2 IP in 13 games (11 starts)
AAA: 2-0, 2.17 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 30/12 K/BB, 45.2 IP in 8 starts
It's tough to pinpoint any real breakout candidate on the Cubs, considering pretty much every position is set with veterans or otherwise proven players. That said, if any of Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, or Tyler Chatwood gets hurt, Eddie Butler could be the guy who steps up and makes an impact. Butler pushed himself into the national prospect conversation by dominating the mid-minor leagues in 2013 (9-5, 1.80 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 143/52 K/BB across three levels), but the former Radford Highlander never quite figured it out with the Rockies, going 6-16 with a 6.50 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP in parts of three seasons with them. Traded to the Cubs in 2017, he finally found his footing in the majors, going 4-3 with a 3.95 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 13 games (11 starts), and he could springboard off of that in 2018 if given the opportunity (though fellow starters Mike Montgomery and Jen-Ho Tseng will also gun for a spot in the case of an injury).
Others: OF Albert Almora, C Victor Caratini, RHP Jen-Ho Tseng
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Luis Castillo (Age 25)
MLB: 3-7, 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 98/32 K/BB, 89.1 IP in 15 starts
AA: 4-4, 2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 14 starts
Traded as a part of the Casey McGehee deal of 2014, the Andrew Cashner deal of 2016, and the Dan Straily deal of 2017, Luis Castillo is making the Giants, Padres, Marlins regret their decisions. He dominated AA in 2017 (2.58 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 81/13 K/BB with Pensacola) before a call-up to Cincinnati, where he continued to mow down hitters to the tune of a 3.12 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 98/32 strikeout to walk ratio. Interestingly, his strikeout rate actually went up after his promotion to the majors, having struck out 25.6% of AA hitters and 27.3% of major league hitters. He likely won't best his half-season rate stats from 2017, but those numbers held over a full season are borderline ace level. If his 2017 stats were for real, which I believe they may have been, then Castillo is the next face of the Reds rotation and that could begin in 2018.
Others: OF Jesse Winker, RHP Sal Romano, RHP Robert Stephenson
Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Josh Hader (Age 24)
MLB: 2-3, 2.08 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 68/22 K/BB, 47.2 IP in 35 games
AAA: 3-4, 5.37 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 51/31 K/BB, 52 IP in 12 starts
Drafted in the 19th round out of a Maryland high school way back in 2012, Josh Hader slowly climbed the minor league ladder while dominating his competition, going 23-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 101 games (69 starts) up through his promotion to AAA Colorado Springs in 2016, striking out 471 and walking 171 in 420.1 innings. However, he struggled to adjust to the extremely hitter-friendly conditions in Colorado Springs and the Pacific Coast League, and in 26 starts since that promotion, he is 4-11 with a 5.28 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. The Brewers decided to give him a change of scenery by not only promoting him to the majors, but shifting him to the bullpen as well. It worked, as Hader dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.08 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 68/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 47.2 innings. Manager Craig Counsell has said that he will begin 2018 in the bullpen again, but a move to the rotation is certainly possible and Hader has the stuff to do it. In a best case scenario, Hader could become a mid-rotation force or better for the Brewers in the near future, and even if that isn't the case, he has proven he is very effective as a power reliever.
Others: RHP Brandon Woodruff, RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Corbin Burnes
Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Tyler Glasnow (Age 24)
MLB: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 56/44 K/BB, 62 IP in 15 games (13 starts)
AAA: 9-2, 1.93 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 140/32 K/BB, 93.1 IP in 15 starts
Tyler Glasnow is about as enigmatic as it gets. The 6'8" right hander has absolutely obliterated minor league hitting to the tune of a 45-21 record, a 2.02 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 785/278 strikeout to walk ratio in 593.1 innings. This utter domination includes AAA, where he is a career 19-6 pitcher with a 1.95 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 321/116 strikeout to walk ratio over 244.1 innings. The trouble, however, has been translating that success just one more step to the majors. Over 22 major league outings over the past two seasons (including 17 starts), he is 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.88 WHIP, striking out 80 and walking 57 in 85.1 innings. He still has that blazing mid to upper 90's fastball, but his command has been non-existent and hitters have been able to punish his mistakes. While he struck out 38.5% of those he faced in AAA this year, that number stood at just 18.4% in the majors, while his walk rate jumped from 8.8% to 14.4%. Glasnow does have an opportunity to jump back into the rotation if one of Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, Joe Musgrove, Chad Kuhl, or Trevor Williams gets hurt or becomes ineffective, and if he can put it together in 2018, he could finally become the rotation force the Pirates have envisioned for years. However, the Pirates have stated that they are open to using him in the bullpen this year, where his fastball could play up into the upper 90's and he could focus his energy. Either way, this could be the year Glasnow finds success, even if it's not the ace-level success some envisioned when he was climbing through the minors.
Others: 3B Colin Moran, OF Jordan Luplow, OF Austin Meadows
St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Miles Mikolas (Age 29)
NPB (Japan): 14-8, 2.25 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 187/23 K/BB, 188 IP in 27 starts
Last year, Eric Thames made a triumphant return from three years in South Korea to blast 31 home runs for the Brewers. This year, their NL Central rivals are hoping to catch the same lightning in a bottle, this time from Japan. Miles Mikolas (Mikolas pronounced like Mike) was last season in the U.S. going 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 10 starts for the Rangers in 2014, so he headed to Japan to play for the Yomiuri Giants. Apparently, something clicked for him over there, and in three seasons in the NPB, Mikolas went 31-13 with a 2.18 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 378/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 424.2 innings in 62 starts. His strikeout rate went up each year, from 14.9% in 2014, his final year in the MLB to 19.2% in his first year in Japan in 2015, to 22% in 2016, and finally up to 25.1% in 2017. Meanwhile, he posted a career-low 3.1% walk rate this year, and the Cardinals liked his performance enough to give him a two year, $15.5 million deal. He apparently upped his velocity during his time in Japan while refining his secondary pitches, all while maintaining and even improving the stellar command he had in the states. Eric Thames showed us that it isn't impossible for American returnees from Asia to make an impact right away, and Mikolas will look to follow in his footsteps.
Others: RHP Luke Weaver, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Alex Reyes
Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Taylor Clarke (24-25)
AA/AAA: 12-9, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138/52 K/BB, 145 IP in 27 starts
There aren't many openings in the Arizona lineup for new guys to break in, and the rotation looks set with Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Taijuan Walker, Patrick Corbin, and Zack Godley. However, one is bound to get hurt, and Braden Shipley and Taylor Clarke look like frontrunners to take that spot if it comes up. Originally drafted in the third round out of the College of Charleston as a senior in 2015, Clarke pitched very well in 2015 and 2016 and began 2017 with AA Jackson, where he put up a very strong 2.91 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a 107/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 111.1 innings. Promoted to AAA Reno not long after his 22nd birthday, Clarke finally found a challenge in the hitter-friendly environment, going 3-2 with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over six starts, striking out 31 and walking 13 in 33.2 innings. Still, his strikeout rate remained stable by dropping just two points from 23.5% to 21.5%, as did his walk rate by rising from 8.6% to 9%. A fly ball pitcher, he was hurt by the thin air of the Pacific Coast League, and while Arizona has some pretty thin air as well, they just introduced a humidor to try to mitigate that effect. The humidor could be a huge help for Clarke, and if given the chance, the Ashburn, Virginia native could make an impact on the NL West pennant race.
Others: RHP Braden Shipley, 2B Ketel Marte, RHP Jimmie Sherfy
Colorado Rockies: 1B Ryan McMahon (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .158/.333/.211, 0 SB, 46 wRC+ in 17 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .355/.403/.583, 11 SB, 157 wRC+ in 119 games
A year ago, Ryan McMahon was in a very different position, coming off a season in which he struggled for the first time in his career (12 HR, .242/.325/.399 in 133 games at AA), and he was set to repeat the level to start his 2017 season. However, this time around, he proved 2016 to be a fluke and slashed .326/.390/.536 with six home runs in 49 games, forcing a promotion to AAA Albuquerque. There, in the hitter-friendly environment, he moved himself from "good" to "elite" in the prospect rankings, slashing .374/.411/.612 with 14 home runs in 70 games, finding himself in the majors by August. While he struggled against major league pitching (.158/.333/.211), he did manage five walks against five strikeouts, and if he can get just a bit more loft on the ball (he's primarily a ground ball hitter), his power could take off at Coors Field. He has a clear path to starting at first base this season, so watch for McMahon's bat in the thin air.
Others: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Jeff Hoffman, C Tom Murphy
Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Walker Buehler (Age 23-24)
MLB: 1-0, 7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 12/8 K/BB, 9.1 IP in 8 games
High A/AA/AAA: 3-3, 3.35 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 125/31 K/BB, 88.2 IP in 28 games (19 starts)
The Dodgers seemingly always have breakout guys who jump into the national conversation early on. Last year, it was Cody Bellinger. The year before, it was Corey Seager. Before that, you had guys like Yasiel Puig and Justin Turner turning into stars. This year, there are two main candidates to be the next guy, and I'm going to write up Walker Buehler over Alex Verdugo. Buehler was drafted in the first round, 24th overall, as part of a standout Vanderbilt class in 2015, following Dansby Swanson (1st) and Carson Fulmer (8th). However, it would be over a year before Buehler stepped foot on a minor league mound after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he didn't really get his career going until 2017. However, he dominated High Class A in five starts (1.10 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 27/5 K/BB) and found himself in AA, where he continued to pitch well (3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 64/15 K/BB). He finally found a challenge with AAA Oklahoma City, putting up a respectable 4.63 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio in the hitter-friendly environment. Promoted to the majors for eight relief appearances, he was knocked around a bit (7.71 ERA, 2.04 WHIP), but he did strike out 27.3% of those he faced (12 in 9.1 innings). The Dodger rotation looks to consist of Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Alex Wood, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Kenta Maeda, but if one gets injured (and with Hill and Ryu in there, one probably will), Buehler could be the first to hear his name called. If he can ring in his command just a little, his stuff is nasty enough (upper 90's fastball, plus curveball), he could give the Dodgers a third straight NL Rookie of the Year Award winner.
Others: OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Dennis Santana
San Diego Padres: RHP Dinelson Lamet (Age 25-26)
MLB: 7-8, 4.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 139/54 K/BB, 114.1 IP in 21 starts
AAA: 3-2, 3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB, 39 IP in 8 starts
Dinelson Lamet didn't make his minor league debut until he was 22, which is old for a Dominican prospect, but he rose quickly once he got on the professional mound. In full season ball by 2015, he jumped three levels in 2016 and began 2017 at AAA El Paso in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. However, nobody seemed to tell Lamet that the environment was supposed to be difficult, and after eight solid starts (3.23 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 50/20 K/BB), he was promoted to the majors. Making 21 starts for the Padres, he struggled a bit with command (11.1% walk rate), but hitters had a tough time connecting with his nasty stuff and he struck out 28.7% of those he faced, or 139 in 114.1 innings. Unfortunately, his walk rate did rise throughout the year, but if he can keep his stuff in check, it's nasty enough to make him a mid-rotation starter and to build on the 4.57 ERA from this year. The Padres are still rebuilding, so as long as he stays healthy, he should have no problem earning a spot in the rotation and could thrive.
Others: RHP Luis Perdomo, OF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Kaz Makita
San Francisco Giants: RHP Chris Stratton (Age 27)
MLB: 4-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 51/28 K/BB, 58.2 IP in 13 games (10 starts)
AAA: 4-5, 5.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 71/22 K/BB, 79.1 IP in 15 starts
The Giants are doing their best to go worst to first this year, adding numerous bats including Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. However, the pitching staff has remained mostly untouched, especially in the starting department, leaving two unproven guys to take the #4 and #5 spots. Chris Stratton, Tyler Beede, and Andrew Suarez are frontrunners, but Stratton has a particularly strong case and could be in for a big season. Picked 20th overall out of Mississippi State in 2012, he developed slowly didn't get his first extended look in the majors until 2017, his age-26 season. In it, he was successful, going 4-4 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 13 games (10 starts), but there is certainly room for improvement. His 10.9% walk rate was a bit high, but his walk rate trended down slightly as the season moved on. With a full season in pitcher-friendly San Francisco, Stratton could finally fulfill his mid-rotation potential.
Others: RHP Tyler Beede, LHP Andrew Suarez, 2B Miguel Gomez
Monday, February 26, 2018
Tuesday, February 20, 2018
Diamondbacks Acquire Steven Souza in Three Team Trade
Diamondbacks Get: Steven Souza: 30 HR, .239/.351/.459, 16 SB, 120 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR from the Rays
Minor leaguer Taylor Widener: 7-8, 3.39 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 129/50 K/BB, 119.1 IP at High Class A from the Yankees
Yankees Get: Brandon Drury: 13 HR, .267/.317/.447, 1 SB, 92 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR from the Diamondbacks
Rays Get: Anthony Banda: 2-3, 5.96 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25/10 K/BB, 25.1 IP from the Diamondbacks
Minor leaguer Nick Solak: 12 HR, .297/.384/.452, 14 SB, 143 wRC+ at High Class A and AA from the Yankees
Two players to be named later from the Diamondbacks
There's always a lot to unpack with three team trades, but I am going to start off by saying the Diamondbacks were big winners here. They gave up four players, but they weren't impact guys, and in return brought on a very good outfielder and a solid prospect. Steven Souza is better than he gets credit for, and will replace J.D. Martinez while joining A.J. Pollock and David Peralta in that Arizona outfield. As I said, he's a very good player who hasn't gotten a lot of media love, partly due to his .239 batting average last year. Looking past that (because batting average doesn't matter), his on-base percentage was a more than solid .351 due to a very good 13.6% walk rate, and with his 30 home runs, he slugged .459 to be put together to a 120 wRC+, which was ahead of guys like Travis Shaw (119), Francisco Lindor (118), and Christian Yelich (115). Put that together his respectable defense, and he was worth 3.7 fWAR, the same as Andrew McCutchen. In summary, he hits for power, gets on base, and plays adequate defense. If you're not looking for a star, doesn't that check all of the boxes? He'll make $3.55 million in 2018, then has two more years of arbitration before becoming a free agent after the 2020 season. This is totally an upgrade for Arizona. For his career, Souza has 65 home runs, a .236/.325/.426 slash line, 35 stolen bases, and 6.4 fWAR over 399 games. The D-Backs also got minor league righty Taylor Widener from the Yankees, and he could be a quick riser through the minors. Originally drafted in the 12th round out of the University of South Carolina in 2016, Widener's pro debut was just about as good as it gets, as he put up a 0.47 ERA, a 0.63 WHIP, and a 59/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.1 innings in short season ball as well as with Class A Charleston that year. Spending 2017 with High Class A Tampa, he continued to thrive, going 7-8 with a 3.39 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 129/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 starts. He struck out 26.4% of those he faced, and will be ready for a AA trial to start the 2018 season. He's a fastball/slider guy, one who has struggled with command in the past but who seems to be making progress on that front. He may not be able to stick as a starter, but his fastball is up to 97 in relief and he could contribute as early as September of this season.
The Yankees get one player in exchange for their pair of prospects, but Brandon Drury fits right into their plans. He has significant experience at second base, third base, and the outfield, and he'll likely see plenty of time at the former two. Starlin Castro was traded to Miami and Chase Headley was traded to San Diego, leaving second and third base up to Ronald Torreyes and Miguel Andujar, respectively. While near-future second baseman Gleyber Torres has the higher ceiling as a prospect, Andujar is generally considered more major league ready, and Drury will help offset the number of at bats the contending Yankees have to commit to an unproven talent. As the season moves forward, though, Drury will likely see less time in the field as Andujar and Torres begin to take on larger roles. Drury himself is a productive hitter, coming off a season where he slashed .267/.317/.447 with 13 home runs in 135 games. However, his numbers were deeply skewed towards his hitter-friendly home park; at home, he slashed .302/.369/.528, while on the road, it was just .236/.266/.373. His power will play well at cozy Yankee Stadium, but he's also not as good as the surface numbers suggest. For Yankee fans, they should think of Kelly Johnson: some power, mediocre on base skills, and a useful glove. For his career, the Oregon native has 31 home runs, a .271/.319/.448 slash line, and 0.6 fWAR over 289 games.
Lastly, the Rays picked up two solid prospects (plus two players to be named later), but the return seems just a bit light to me, depending on the PTBNL's. Souza is a great player, but Corey Dickerson was the player who was DFA'd, and he's cheap and good. Christian Yelich is a better player than Souza, but not by all that much and Yelich's return was monstrous compared to Souza's. Anthony Banda has reached the majors, going 2-3 with a 5.96 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over eight games (four starts). Banda was very effective in the minors from 2014-2016, but wasn't great at AAA Reno this year, going 8-7 with a 5.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP, striking out 116 and walking 51 in 122 innings. Banda is one of those pitchers with all of the skills necessary to succeed, including a full arsenal and good control, but he hasn't been able to put it together yet. Honestly, I find it odd that the Rays brought in yet another upper level starting pitcher, considering their rotation is nearly full with Chris Archer, Blake Snell, Jacob Faria, and Matt Andriese, and they have about a million upper level prospects waiting for their chance, including Brent Honeywell, Jose De Leon, Chih-Wei Hu, Ryan Yarbrough, and Yonny Chirinos, among others. Lastly, the Rays rounded out their infield prospect chart by adding Nick Solak to a list that already includes Willy Adames and Christian Arroyo. Solak was taken in the second round of the 2016 draft out of Louisville and has had immediate success in the minors, slashing .305/.393/.441 with 15 home runs over 194 games in his two seasons, reaching AA. He started this season at High Class A Tampa, where he slashed .301/.397/.460 with ten home runs and 13 stolen bases in 100 games, earning a promotion to AA Trenton, where he slashed .286/.344/.429 with a pair of home runs in 30 games. Solak's defense is subpar and he's limited to second base or the outfield, but the bat could be very useful in Tampa. He hits for moderate power but has a knack for getting on base, and he could be a bat-first starting second baseman.
Monday, February 19, 2018
Red Sox Add J.D. Martinez to Middle of Lineup
J.D. Martinez: 45 HR, .303/.376/.690, 4 SB, 166 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR
Five years, $110 million (with buyouts after two years, $50 million and three years, $72 million)
While the Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and potentially stand to see Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar emerge as stars this year, the Red Sox hadn't added a single player who wasn't on the roster last season until signing J.D. Martinez to a five year, $110 million contract. The deal comes with two opt-outs, one after two years and $50 million and the other after three years and $72 million, so if Martinez hits as expected, this could end up being a short term deal for Boston. That said, Martinez will be a huge addition to a Red Sox team with aspirations to win the AL East, coming off a season in which he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs (including .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs after a trade to Arizona). Now, Martinez didn't suddenly just get good this year; while his 166 wRC+ was a career high (and enough to finish third in the MLB behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge had he qualified with 14 more plate appearances), Martinez did post wRC+'s of 154, 136, and 141 in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, so he does have more of a track record than you might think. Detroit's Comerica Park suppressed his power a bit, which is reflected in wRC+'s part adjustment, but you can see that jump in his non-park adjusted wOBA (.391, .372, .384, .430 in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) with that trade to Arizona in 2017. Fortunately, Fenway Park is almost as much of a launching pad as Arizona's Chase Field, so Martinez will likely mash near the rate he did this past season, making him one of the most valuable bats in the game. Joining the Red Sox outfield will be interesting, as Martinez is not a strong defender, so he will likely spend some significant time DH'ing. Right now, it looks like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts are slated to start in the outfield with Hanley Ramirez at DH and Mitch Moreland at first (and prospect Sam Travis knocking at the door), so my guess is that it will be Moreland whose playing time takes the biggest hit, with JBJ losing some playing time as well. For his career, the DII prospect from Nova Southeastern University has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.
Five years, $110 million (with buyouts after two years, $50 million and three years, $72 million)
While the Yankees added Giancarlo Stanton this offseason and potentially stand to see Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar emerge as stars this year, the Red Sox hadn't added a single player who wasn't on the roster last season until signing J.D. Martinez to a five year, $110 million contract. The deal comes with two opt-outs, one after two years and $50 million and the other after three years and $72 million, so if Martinez hits as expected, this could end up being a short term deal for Boston. That said, Martinez will be a huge addition to a Red Sox team with aspirations to win the AL East, coming off a season in which he slashed a ridiculous .303/.376/.690 with 45 home runs (including .302/.366/.741 with 29 home runs after a trade to Arizona). Now, Martinez didn't suddenly just get good this year; while his 166 wRC+ was a career high (and enough to finish third in the MLB behind Mike Trout and Aaron Judge had he qualified with 14 more plate appearances), Martinez did post wRC+'s of 154, 136, and 141 in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively, so he does have more of a track record than you might think. Detroit's Comerica Park suppressed his power a bit, which is reflected in wRC+'s part adjustment, but you can see that jump in his non-park adjusted wOBA (.391, .372, .384, .430 in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017) with that trade to Arizona in 2017. Fortunately, Fenway Park is almost as much of a launching pad as Arizona's Chase Field, so Martinez will likely mash near the rate he did this past season, making him one of the most valuable bats in the game. Joining the Red Sox outfield will be interesting, as Martinez is not a strong defender, so he will likely spend some significant time DH'ing. Right now, it looks like Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Mookie Betts are slated to start in the outfield with Hanley Ramirez at DH and Mitch Moreland at first (and prospect Sam Travis knocking at the door), so my guess is that it will be Moreland whose playing time takes the biggest hit, with JBJ losing some playing time as well. For his career, the DII prospect from Nova Southeastern University has 152 home runs, a .285/.342/.514 slash line, and 13.5 fWAR over 772 games.
One 2018 Breakout Star to Watch for Each Team: AL
At this time last year, your typical baseball fans knew little of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Robbie Ray, Andrew Benintendi, and Matt Olson. Now, that's a pretty impressive list of names. Looking forward to 2018, here is one player on each AL team that could break out and be a star by the end of the season. Age for the 2018 season is given in parentheses, NL edition coming soon.
Baltimore Orioles: C Chance Sisco (Age 23)
MLB: 2 HR, .333/.455/.778, 0 SB, 220 wRC+ in 10 games
AAA: 7 HR, .267/.340/.395, 2 SB, 107 wRC+ in 97 games
First off, it is much easier for a guy with a name like Chance Sisco to catch the media's attention than for someone like Brad Hand (you're doing great in San Diego, Brad), but Sisco is much more than his cool name. He obviously will never match the numbers he put up in that brief stint in Baltimore in 2017, but if he knocks incumbent Caleb Joseph off of catcher, he could compete for a Rookie of the Year Award. Good enough to stick behind the plate at the major league level, Sisco has a very good feel for hitting, as he has shown with high on-base percentages throughout his career, buoyed by a 10.4% walk rate. That should help him transition well to major league pitching, and with Camden Yards' short fences, his average power could play up. Catchers who can hit are hard to come by, so Sisco should be a very familiar face in Baltimore by the end of the season.
Others: OF Austin Hays, RHP Gabriel Ynoa, OF D.J. Stewart
Boston Red Sox: 3B Rafael Devers (Age 21)
MLB: 10 HR, .284/.338/.482, 3 SB, 111 wRC+ in 58 games
AA/AAA: 20 HR, .311/.377/.578, 0 SB, 159 wRC+ in 86 games
Devers had 92 too many at bats in 2017 to be considered a rookie for 2018, but that doesn't mean he won't be in the spotlight. After demolishing AA pitching (18 HR, .300/.369/.575) and AAA pitching (2 HR, .400/.447/.600), Devers earned a call up to Boston at just 20 years old, and he kept hitting. In 58 games, he knocked ten home runs and slashed .284/.338/.482, firmly establishing himself as a future star for the Red Sox. If he merely continues those rates over a full season in 2018, he'll end up with more than 20 home runs while putting his name into All Star consideration. If he builds on them, we could see a 30 home run season with on-base percentages north of .350, thrusting him into the "star" category at 21 years old. The next wave of talent is very much here in Boston, and it will be led by Devers, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Andrew Benintendi.
Others: 1B Sam Travis, LHP Jalen Beeks, C Blake Swihart
New York Yankees: 3B Miguel Andujar (Age 23)
MLB: 0 HR, .571/.625/.857, 1 SB, 298 wRC+ in 5 games
AA/AAA: 16 HR, .315/.352/.498, 5 SB, 132 wRC+ in 125 games
The Yankees have a chance to have back to back AL Rookies of the Year. Miguel Andujar hit well at AA Trenton (7 HR, .312/.342/.494) and better at AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre (9 HR, .317/.364/.502), then had just about the best eight plate appearance MLB debut you can possibly have (two singles, two doubles, walk, stolen base, no strikeouts). An eight PA sample doesn't mean much, but it does show that Andujar at least won't be overmatched at the major league level, and the Yankees realize that. By trading Chase Headley, the Yankees have opened up a lane for Andujar to play and make an impact, which says a lot about what they think about the young man.
Others: RHP Chance Adams, SS Gleyber Torres, RHP Domingo German
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Brent Honeywell (Age 23)
AA/AAA: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 172/35 K/BB, 136.2 IP in 26 starts
The Rays have a ton of players who could break out next year, particularly in the middle infield and starting pitching departments, but perhaps none have a better chance to make an impact than Brent Honeywell. The 22 year old seems like he has been a top prospect forever, and he seems ready after 24 successful starts at AAA Durham (12-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 152/31 K/BB). With a good spring training, Honeywell and his famous screwball can crack the Tampa Bay rotation, and from there he could win 15 games in 2018 (not that wins accurately reflect his performance).
Others: OF Jake Bauers, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, RHP Jose De Leon
**Update: Honeywell tore his UCL and will miss the season, so scratch that
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Teoscar Hernandez (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .261/.305/.602, 0 SB, 132 wRC+ in 27 games
AAA: 18 HR, .265/.351/.490, 16 SB, 120 wRC+ in 105 games
The Blue Jays have lots of depth, but the good news for Hernandez is that aside from Kevin Pillar, nobody looks to really have a lock on a starting spot in the outfield. Hernandez got some MLB exposure this past season and he made the most of it, slashing .261/.305/.602 with eight home runs and six doubles in just 27 games. The 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio leaves a bit to be desired, but the 102/47 ratio at AAA is a little better and he can hopefully get it going in 2018. The power he showed was very promising as he finally looks to be getting the most out of his lanky, 6'2" frame, and he could go 20-20 in 2018 if everything breaks right and he snags a starting spot. With a name like Teoscar Hernandez, he'll get noticed sooner rather than later.
Others: OF Anthony Alford, LHP Ryan Borucki, LHP Thomas Pannone
Chicago White Sox: 2B Yoan Moncada (Age 22-23)
MLB: 8 HR, .231/.338/.412, 3 SB, 104 wRC+ in 54 games
AAA: 12 HR, .282/.377/.447, 17 SB, 130 wRC+ in 80 games
With the White Sox' excellent farm sytem, there are plenty of young players who could make names for themselves in 2018, but the top has to be Yoan Moncada. The Cuban got his first extended MLB trial last year, slashing .231/.338/.412 with eight home runs in 54 games. Especially promising was the 12.6% walk rate, showing that he is ready to hit major league pitching and could be primed for a breakout. He also kicked it up a notch late in the season, slashing .299/.365/.517 with five of his eight home runs from September 9th onwards. In the minors, he has hit for contact and power while showing off plus speed, with some experience under his belt now, he can put that to good use in the majors.
Others: RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Michael Kopech
Cleveland Indians: OF Bradley Zimmer (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .241/.307/.385, 18 SB, 81 wRC+ in 101 games
AAA: 5 HR, .294/.371/.532, 9 SB, 149 wRC+ in 33 games
Bradley Zimmer played nearly a full season for the Indians in 2017, slashing .241/.307/.385 with eight home runs and 18 stolen bases in 101 games, but there is reason to believe that was only a sneak preview of what is to come in 2018. Zimmer showed pop, swatting 15 doubles and a pair of triples in addition to his eight home runs, as well as smart speed, getting caught stealing just once in nineteen attempts. While he does strike out a lot and will likely continue to do so throughout his MLB career, the rest of the tools point to him being a very productive player for Cleveland for a long time. That power/speed combination is hard to come by, especially from a 6'5" frame, and he has a very good chance of putting it all together in 2018 and becoming yet another young star on this Cleveland team.
Others: C/3B Francisco Mejia, LHP Shawn Morimando, 3B Yandy Diaz
Detroit Tigers: 3B Jeimer Candelario (Age 24)
MLB: 3 HR, .283/.359/.425, 0 SB, 111 wRC+ in 38 games
AAA: 15 HR, .265/.343/.484, 1 SB, 115 wRC+ in 110 games
A third baseman, Jeimer Candelario was blocked in Chicago by Kris Bryant, so trading him to Detroit and shifting incumbent third baseman Nick Castellanos to the outfield made perfect sense. Now, the 24 year old with a career .292/.374/.507 slash line at AAA finally has a shot, and he is looking to make the most of it. He brings power and patience to the batters' box, and with the spot open for him, he could put up a big season.
Others: OF Victor Reyes, IF Dixon Machado, OF JaCoby Jones
Kansas City Royals: SS Raul Mondesi (Age 22-23)
MLB: 1 HR, .170/.214/.245, 5 SB, 17 wRC+ in 25 games
AAA: 13 HR, .305/.340/.539, 21 SB, 119 wRC+ in 85 games
Could 2018 finally be Raul Mondesi's year? The shortstop has been a top prospect seemingly forever, cracking MLB.com's top 50 prospect lists in 2013 (#47), 2014 (#38), and 2015 (#33) before losing eligibility in 2016. Still just 22 years old, Mondesi is fast, a slick fielder, and competent with the bat. He figured out AAA in 2017, slashing .305/.340/.539, but he has yet to apply that to the majors, slashing a paltry .181/.226/.271 in 72 career games between 2016 and 2017. He was rushed through the minors, playing every level at a very young age, and it seems that that may not have been the best way to develop him, but if the AAA numbers are to be believed, he may have finally figured it out. The 14 home runs between AAA and the majors crushed his previous career high of nine, despite the fact that he posted the highest ground ball rate (46.6%) of his minor league career. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is back in Kansas City, but manager Ned Yost has stated that Mondesi has a shot at starting at second base.
Others: OF Jorge Soler, RHP Sam Gaviglio, RHP Trevor Oaks
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton (Age 24)
MLB: 16 HR, .253/.314/.413, 29 SB, 90 wRC+ in 140 games
AAA: 2 HR, .417/.462/.917, 0 SB, 283 wRC+ in 3 games
Once considered the top prospect in all of baseball, it has taken Byron Buxton's bat a little longer than anticipated to develop, but he showed hints of greatness despite the mediocre slash line. First off, Buxton is arguably the best defender in baseball, and his name absolutely deserves to be mentioned up there with Andrelton Simmons, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, and Yadier Molina already. That's already evident and fully proven. His base running is great, too, as he stole 29 bases in 30 attempts in 2017, giving him the third most stolen bases ever in a single season among players with zero or one times caught stealing. So he's already elite in two categories, but his bat is uninspiring at best. However, there is reason to believe the bat could come along in 2018, making him – honestly – an MVP candidate if it does, and it may already have. As of July 3rd, he was slashing .195/.272/.280 with just four home runs in 78 games. However, from the Fourth of July onwards, Buxton slashed .314/.359/.553 with 12 home runs in 61 games. Combine that with top notch defense and base running over a full season, and you absolutely have yourself an MVP candidate. If that second-half offensive outburst was for real, then Buxton could be a superstar.
Others: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, IF Nick Gordon, RHP Fernando Romero
Houston Astros: RHP David Paulino (Age 24)
MLB: 2-0, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/7 K/BB, 29 IP in 6 starts
AAA: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13/9 K/BB, 14 IP in 3 starts
Coming off a World Series Championship, the Astros are again arguably baseball's best team, so it will be hard for anyone new to break through and make an impact. That said, anything can happen, and former top prospect David Paulino would like to be one to make something happen. The 6'7" righty missed most of 2017 due to a PED suspension as well as bone spur issues, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. If Paulino can get his head in the right place (in addition to the 2017 PED suspension, he was briefly suspended in 2016 for "violating team policy"), there is immense talent here. He dominated the upper minors in 2016 to the tune of a 2.00 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 106/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings, and if it hadn't been for the suspensions, he could have already established himself as a known major league commodity. The Houston rotation looks set with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton, but watch out for David Paulino if any of those guys get hurt.
Others: OF Derek Fisher, RHP Francis Martes, 3B J.D. Davis
Los Angeles Angels: RHP/OF Shohei Ohtani (Age 23-24)
NPB Hitting: 8 HR, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB in 65 games
NPB Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP in 5 starts
This one is pretty straightforward. We all know who Shohei Ohtani is and it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the incredibly lofty expectations placed on him, but he's going to try and we are more than excited to watch. Ohtani missed much of 2017 to injury, but back in a healthy 2016 season, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts on the mound while cracking 22 home runs and slashing .322/.416/.588 at the plate in Japan despite turning 22 halfway through the season. The general consensus is he is a better pitching prospect than hitting prospect, and I agree, and he'll likely post an ERA somewhere in the low to mid threes as a starter. At the plate, he does have strikeout issues which could make the transition a bit difficult, but he has 20 homer power and will be fun to watch as he looks to rack up numbers on both sides of the ball.
Others: LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Jaime Barria, RHP Luke Bard
Oakland Athletics: RHP Jharel Cotton (Age 26)
MLB: 9-10, 5.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 105/53 K/BB, 129 IP in 24 starts
AAA: 3-0, 2.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB, 21.1 IP in 4 games (3 starts)
Jharel Cotton and his plus-plus changeup made a great first impression in a five game debut in 2016, going 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings, but the going was a bit rougher in 2017. He was absolutely dominating at times (7 shutout innings on 2 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts against the Royals on April 10th) and got blown up at others (gave up at least five earned runs in eight of his 24 starts), finishing 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He still possesses that wicked changeup and he commands everything fairly well, so if he can just get more consistent with his other pitches, Cotton could be the best starter on the A's this year.
Others: SS Franklin Barreto, RHP Daniel Gossett, RHP Paul Blackburn
Seattle Mariners: LHP Marco Gonzales (Age 26)
MLB: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 32/11 K/BB, 40 IP in 11 games (8 starts)
High A/AAA: 8-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73/22 K/BB, 86.1 IP in 14 starts
The 19th overall pick of the 2013 draft out of Gonzaga, Gonzales missed chunks of 2015 with shoulder woes and all of 2016 to Tommy John surgery, then spent much of 2017 in AAA building himself back up. In them minors this year, Gonzales went 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 14 starts, striking out 73 and walking 22 in 86.1 innings, all but six of which were in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League. He was less effective in eight starts and three relief appearances in the majors, going 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in 40 innings. It's clear that Gonzales is immensely talented, but having been unable to keep his arm in commission for long stretches at a time, he hasn't really gotten a chance to get in his rhythm. Fully healthy for 2018, he could surprise as an effective starter for Seattle this year.
Others: 1B Mike Ford, RHP Andrew Moore, 1B Dan Vogelbach
Texas Rangers: OF Willie Calhoun (Age 23)
MLB: 1 HR, .265/.324/.353, 0 SB, 80 wRC+ in 13 games
AAA: 31 HR, .300/.355/.572, 4 SB, 133 wRC+ in 128 games
Last year, it was Joey Gallo posting a Texas-sized breakout season, and this year, Willie Calhoun looks like the most likely candidate to follow in his footsteps. Despite standing just 5'8", Calhoun packs a ton of punch for a little guy, crushing 70 home runs in his three pro seasons, with 11 in 2015, 27 in 2016, and 32 in 2017. He absolutely raked in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, cracking 31 home runs and slashing .300/.355/.572, walking in only 7.9% of his plate appearances but also striking out in just 11.4%. With nothing left to prove in the minors, there is space for him in the Rangers outfield to prove that he can translate that success to the majors, and he did slash a respectable .265/.324/.353 in a 13 game test. Again, in a small sample size, the 5.4% walk rate was low, but his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't terrible for a 22 year old getting his very first taste of big league pitching. In a shallow Rangers outfield comprising of Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields Jr., Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson, and occasionally Shin-Soo Choo (who will mostly DH in 2018), Calhoun will get every chance to snag a starting spot.
Others: LHP Yohander Mendez, 1B Ronald Guzman, OF Ryan Rua
Others: RHP Chance Adams, SS Gleyber Torres, RHP Domingo German
Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Brent Honeywell (Age 23)
AA/AAA: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 172/35 K/BB, 136.2 IP in 26 starts
The Rays have a ton of players who could break out next year, particularly in the middle infield and starting pitching departments, but perhaps none have a better chance to make an impact than Brent Honeywell. The 22 year old seems like he has been a top prospect forever, and he seems ready after 24 successful starts at AAA Durham (12-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 152/31 K/BB). With a good spring training, Honeywell and his famous screwball can crack the Tampa Bay rotation, and from there he could win 15 games in 2018 (not that wins accurately reflect his performance).
Others: OF Jake Bauers, SS Christian Arroyo, SS Willy Adames, RHP Jose De Leon
**Update: Honeywell tore his UCL and will miss the season, so scratch that
Toronto Blue Jays: OF Teoscar Hernandez (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .261/.305/.602, 0 SB, 132 wRC+ in 27 games
AAA: 18 HR, .265/.351/.490, 16 SB, 120 wRC+ in 105 games
The Blue Jays have lots of depth, but the good news for Hernandez is that aside from Kevin Pillar, nobody looks to really have a lock on a starting spot in the outfield. Hernandez got some MLB exposure this past season and he made the most of it, slashing .261/.305/.602 with eight home runs and six doubles in just 27 games. The 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio leaves a bit to be desired, but the 102/47 ratio at AAA is a little better and he can hopefully get it going in 2018. The power he showed was very promising as he finally looks to be getting the most out of his lanky, 6'2" frame, and he could go 20-20 in 2018 if everything breaks right and he snags a starting spot. With a name like Teoscar Hernandez, he'll get noticed sooner rather than later.
Others: OF Anthony Alford, LHP Ryan Borucki, LHP Thomas Pannone
Chicago White Sox: 2B Yoan Moncada (Age 22-23)
MLB: 8 HR, .231/.338/.412, 3 SB, 104 wRC+ in 54 games
AAA: 12 HR, .282/.377/.447, 17 SB, 130 wRC+ in 80 games
With the White Sox' excellent farm sytem, there are plenty of young players who could make names for themselves in 2018, but the top has to be Yoan Moncada. The Cuban got his first extended MLB trial last year, slashing .231/.338/.412 with eight home runs in 54 games. Especially promising was the 12.6% walk rate, showing that he is ready to hit major league pitching and could be primed for a breakout. He also kicked it up a notch late in the season, slashing .299/.365/.517 with five of his eight home runs from September 9th onwards. In the minors, he has hit for contact and power while showing off plus speed, with some experience under his belt now, he can put that to good use in the majors.
Others: RHP Carson Fulmer, RHP Lucas Giolito, RHP Michael Kopech
Cleveland Indians: OF Bradley Zimmer (Age 25)
MLB: 8 HR, .241/.307/.385, 18 SB, 81 wRC+ in 101 games
AAA: 5 HR, .294/.371/.532, 9 SB, 149 wRC+ in 33 games
Bradley Zimmer played nearly a full season for the Indians in 2017, slashing .241/.307/.385 with eight home runs and 18 stolen bases in 101 games, but there is reason to believe that was only a sneak preview of what is to come in 2018. Zimmer showed pop, swatting 15 doubles and a pair of triples in addition to his eight home runs, as well as smart speed, getting caught stealing just once in nineteen attempts. While he does strike out a lot and will likely continue to do so throughout his MLB career, the rest of the tools point to him being a very productive player for Cleveland for a long time. That power/speed combination is hard to come by, especially from a 6'5" frame, and he has a very good chance of putting it all together in 2018 and becoming yet another young star on this Cleveland team.
Others: C/3B Francisco Mejia, LHP Shawn Morimando, 3B Yandy Diaz
Detroit Tigers: 3B Jeimer Candelario (Age 24)
MLB: 3 HR, .283/.359/.425, 0 SB, 111 wRC+ in 38 games
AAA: 15 HR, .265/.343/.484, 1 SB, 115 wRC+ in 110 games
A third baseman, Jeimer Candelario was blocked in Chicago by Kris Bryant, so trading him to Detroit and shifting incumbent third baseman Nick Castellanos to the outfield made perfect sense. Now, the 24 year old with a career .292/.374/.507 slash line at AAA finally has a shot, and he is looking to make the most of it. He brings power and patience to the batters' box, and with the spot open for him, he could put up a big season.
Others: OF Victor Reyes, IF Dixon Machado, OF JaCoby Jones
Kansas City Royals: SS Raul Mondesi (Age 22-23)
MLB: 1 HR, .170/.214/.245, 5 SB, 17 wRC+ in 25 games
AAA: 13 HR, .305/.340/.539, 21 SB, 119 wRC+ in 85 games
Could 2018 finally be Raul Mondesi's year? The shortstop has been a top prospect seemingly forever, cracking MLB.com's top 50 prospect lists in 2013 (#47), 2014 (#38), and 2015 (#33) before losing eligibility in 2016. Still just 22 years old, Mondesi is fast, a slick fielder, and competent with the bat. He figured out AAA in 2017, slashing .305/.340/.539, but he has yet to apply that to the majors, slashing a paltry .181/.226/.271 in 72 career games between 2016 and 2017. He was rushed through the minors, playing every level at a very young age, and it seems that that may not have been the best way to develop him, but if the AAA numbers are to be believed, he may have finally figured it out. The 14 home runs between AAA and the majors crushed his previous career high of nine, despite the fact that he posted the highest ground ball rate (46.6%) of his minor league career. Shortstop Alcides Escobar is back in Kansas City, but manager Ned Yost has stated that Mondesi has a shot at starting at second base.
Others: OF Jorge Soler, RHP Sam Gaviglio, RHP Trevor Oaks
Minnesota Twins: CF Byron Buxton (Age 24)
MLB: 16 HR, .253/.314/.413, 29 SB, 90 wRC+ in 140 games
AAA: 2 HR, .417/.462/.917, 0 SB, 283 wRC+ in 3 games
Once considered the top prospect in all of baseball, it has taken Byron Buxton's bat a little longer than anticipated to develop, but he showed hints of greatness despite the mediocre slash line. First off, Buxton is arguably the best defender in baseball, and his name absolutely deserves to be mentioned up there with Andrelton Simmons, Billy Hamilton, Nolan Arenado, and Yadier Molina already. That's already evident and fully proven. His base running is great, too, as he stole 29 bases in 30 attempts in 2017, giving him the third most stolen bases ever in a single season among players with zero or one times caught stealing. So he's already elite in two categories, but his bat is uninspiring at best. However, there is reason to believe the bat could come along in 2018, making him – honestly – an MVP candidate if it does, and it may already have. As of July 3rd, he was slashing .195/.272/.280 with just four home runs in 78 games. However, from the Fourth of July onwards, Buxton slashed .314/.359/.553 with 12 home runs in 61 games. Combine that with top notch defense and base running over a full season, and you absolutely have yourself an MVP candidate. If that second-half offensive outburst was for real, then Buxton could be a superstar.
Others: LHP Stephen Gonsalves, IF Nick Gordon, RHP Fernando Romero
Houston Astros: RHP David Paulino (Age 24)
MLB: 2-0, 6.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 34/7 K/BB, 29 IP in 6 starts
AAA: 0-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 13/9 K/BB, 14 IP in 3 starts
Coming off a World Series Championship, the Astros are again arguably baseball's best team, so it will be hard for anyone new to break through and make an impact. That said, anything can happen, and former top prospect David Paulino would like to be one to make something happen. The 6'7" righty missed most of 2017 due to a PED suspension as well as bone spur issues, but he's expected to be ready for spring training. If Paulino can get his head in the right place (in addition to the 2017 PED suspension, he was briefly suspended in 2016 for "violating team policy"), there is immense talent here. He dominated the upper minors in 2016 to the tune of a 2.00 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 106/19 strikeout to walk ratio in 90 innings, and if it hadn't been for the suspensions, he could have already established himself as a known major league commodity. The Houston rotation looks set with Dallas Keuchel, Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Lance McCullers, and Charlie Morton, but watch out for David Paulino if any of those guys get hurt.
Others: OF Derek Fisher, RHP Francis Martes, 3B J.D. Davis
Los Angeles Angels: RHP/OF Shohei Ohtani (Age 23-24)
NPB Hitting: 8 HR, .332/.403/.540, 0 SB in 65 games
NPB Pitching: 3-2, 3.20 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 29/19 K/BB, 25.1 IP in 5 starts
This one is pretty straightforward. We all know who Shohei Ohtani is and it will be nearly impossible for him to live up to the incredibly lofty expectations placed on him, but he's going to try and we are more than excited to watch. Ohtani missed much of 2017 to injury, but back in a healthy 2016 season, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP over 21 starts on the mound while cracking 22 home runs and slashing .322/.416/.588 at the plate in Japan despite turning 22 halfway through the season. The general consensus is he is a better pitching prospect than hitting prospect, and I agree, and he'll likely post an ERA somewhere in the low to mid threes as a starter. At the plate, he does have strikeout issues which could make the transition a bit difficult, but he has 20 homer power and will be fun to watch as he looks to rack up numbers on both sides of the ball.
Others: LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Jaime Barria, RHP Luke Bard
Oakland Athletics: RHP Jharel Cotton (Age 26)
MLB: 9-10, 5.58 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 105/53 K/BB, 129 IP in 24 starts
AAA: 3-0, 2.95 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 28/4 K/BB, 21.1 IP in 4 games (3 starts)
Jharel Cotton and his plus-plus changeup made a great first impression in a five game debut in 2016, going 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a 23/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.1 innings, but the going was a bit rougher in 2017. He was absolutely dominating at times (7 shutout innings on 2 hits, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts against the Royals on April 10th) and got blown up at others (gave up at least five earned runs in eight of his 24 starts), finishing 9-10 with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He still possesses that wicked changeup and he commands everything fairly well, so if he can just get more consistent with his other pitches, Cotton could be the best starter on the A's this year.
Others: SS Franklin Barreto, RHP Daniel Gossett, RHP Paul Blackburn
Seattle Mariners: LHP Marco Gonzales (Age 26)
MLB: 1-1, 6.08 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 32/11 K/BB, 40 IP in 11 games (8 starts)
High A/AAA: 8-4, 3.02 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73/22 K/BB, 86.1 IP in 14 starts
The 19th overall pick of the 2013 draft out of Gonzaga, Gonzales missed chunks of 2015 with shoulder woes and all of 2016 to Tommy John surgery, then spent much of 2017 in AAA building himself back up. In them minors this year, Gonzales went 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 14 starts, striking out 73 and walking 22 in 86.1 innings, all but six of which were in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League. He was less effective in eight starts and three relief appearances in the majors, going 1-1 with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP in 40 innings. It's clear that Gonzales is immensely talented, but having been unable to keep his arm in commission for long stretches at a time, he hasn't really gotten a chance to get in his rhythm. Fully healthy for 2018, he could surprise as an effective starter for Seattle this year.
Others: 1B Mike Ford, RHP Andrew Moore, 1B Dan Vogelbach
Texas Rangers: OF Willie Calhoun (Age 23)
MLB: 1 HR, .265/.324/.353, 0 SB, 80 wRC+ in 13 games
AAA: 31 HR, .300/.355/.572, 4 SB, 133 wRC+ in 128 games
Last year, it was Joey Gallo posting a Texas-sized breakout season, and this year, Willie Calhoun looks like the most likely candidate to follow in his footsteps. Despite standing just 5'8", Calhoun packs a ton of punch for a little guy, crushing 70 home runs in his three pro seasons, with 11 in 2015, 27 in 2016, and 32 in 2017. He absolutely raked in the hitter-friendly AAA Pacific Coast League, cracking 31 home runs and slashing .300/.355/.572, walking in only 7.9% of his plate appearances but also striking out in just 11.4%. With nothing left to prove in the minors, there is space for him in the Rangers outfield to prove that he can translate that success to the majors, and he did slash a respectable .265/.324/.353 in a 13 game test. Again, in a small sample size, the 5.4% walk rate was low, but his 18.9% strikeout rate wasn't terrible for a 22 year old getting his very first taste of big league pitching. In a shallow Rangers outfield comprising of Calhoun, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields Jr., Ryan Rua, Drew Robinson, and occasionally Shin-Soo Choo (who will mostly DH in 2018), Calhoun will get every chance to snag a starting spot.
Others: LHP Yohander Mendez, 1B Ronald Guzman, OF Ryan Rua
Sunday, February 18, 2018
Padres Land Eric Hosmer
Eric Hosmer: 25 HR, .318/.385/.498, 6 SB, 135 wRC+, 4.1 fWAR
Eight years, $144 million (with opt-out after five years, $105 million)
The second $100 million domino to fall is first baseman Eric Hosmer, who signed with the Padres for eight years and $144 million (though the contract does include an opt-out after five years and $105 million). Personally, I'm not a big fan of this signing for the Padres, as Hosmer had a great year last year (25 HR, .318/.385/.498), but he hasn't been even remotely consistent during his career, fluctuating between seasons of high value (4.1 fWAR in 2017) and no value (-0.1 fWAR in 2016), so this is a big gamble by the Padres. He isn't a butcher at first base, being a mediocre-to-average defender at first base puts his defensive value pretty much right at zero. The value is in the bat, where he hits for moderate power and gets on base at an adequate rate, but both of those come and go and he has never been elite at either. He combined both in 2017 with that .385 on base percentage and .498 slugging percentage, good for a 135 wRC+, but sometimes neither is there, and that's when he's basically just your average player. Now, don't get me wrong, I love where the Padres are going as a franchise. Fernando Tatis Jr. and MacKenzie Gore are truly elite prospects, and Michael Baez, Adrian Morejon, and Luis Urias have star potential as well. The Padres did do well to get a name-brand bat onto a team that really lacks flashy, fan-drawing names outside of Wil Myers (who will move back to the outfield with Hosmer on board), even if they did overpay to get it. If he proves 2017 wasn't a fluke and that he can consistently be a 3-4 win player, this contract won't look so bad after all, but he does suck a lot of financial flexibility out of a team that will be contending soon. For his career, the South Florida native has 127 home runs, a .284/.342/.439 slash line, and 9.9 fWAR over 1048 games.
Twins Acquire Jake Odorizzi for Prospect Jermaine Palacios
Twins Get: Jake Odorizzi: 10-8, 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 127/61 K/BB, 143.1 innings
Rays Get: minor leaguer Jermaine Palacios: 13 HR, .296/.333/.454, 20 SB, 124 wRC+ at Class A and High Class A
The Twins made a smart trade in acquiring starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, while the trade could work out in the Rays favor as well. Good, proven pitching is hard to come by, and while Odorizzi has only one year left on his contract (at $6.3 million), he has made at least 28 starts in each of the past four seasons, posting ERA's of 4.13, 3.35, 3.69, and 4.14. He missed two short stretches to minor hamstring and back injuries but was otherwise pretty consistent, and he closed out the season with a strong September in which he posted a 1.03 ERA, a 0.72 WHIP, and a 30/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings. On the down side, his 21% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate were both career worsts, as were his 15.3% soft hit rate and 36.8% hard hit rate. Still, the 27 year old is a classic mid-rotation starter, one who slots in nicely with Ervin Santana (once he recovers from finger surgery around the start of May), Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, and some combination of Phil Hughes, Adalberto Mejia, and Stephen Gonsalves. This is the third trade of Odorizzi's career, but after being a part of the Zack Greinke deal of 2010 and the James Shields/Wade Davis/Wil Myers trade of 2012, he gets to headline his own trade this time. For his career, the southern Illinois native is 40-38 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 129 games (126 starts).
The Rays brought back only one prospect, shortstop Jermaine Palacios, but he has a chance to make a difference in for Tampa down the road. After a forgettable 2016 season for Class A Cedar Rapids (1 HR, .222/.276/.287 in 71 games), Palacios repeated the level in 2017 and the results were remarkably different. Over 62 games, the 20 year old cracked eleven home runs and slashed .320/.362/.544 while stealing nine bases with a 46/12 strikeout to walk ratio, earning a promotion to High Class A Fort Myers. In 62 games, he struggled a bit more, slashing .269/.303/.359 with a pair of home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio. Personally, he looks like a big risk to me, given his aggressive approach and the fact that he hasn't actually proven that he can hit above Class A. The Rays are betting on the tools here, given Palacios' gap power, speed, and defense, but he has to tone down his approach as well as learn to use his speed more effectively on the bases. His ceiling may be Francisco Lindor with less defense and power, but he could also flame out in AA. He turns 22 in July.
Saturday, February 17, 2018
Giants Add Lefty Tony Watson to Bullpen
Tony Watson: 7-4, 3.38 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 53/20 K/BB, 66.2 innings
Three years, $7 million
After growing up in Iowa, attending Nebraska for college, and pitching for Pittsburgh for the first six and a half years of his career, Tony Watson was traded to the Dodgers in 2017 and I guess he liked the West Coast, as he has signed a three year deal with the Giants. San Francisco is desperately trying to turn its team around, having already acquired Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, and Gregor Blanco this year while more or less losing only Denard Span and Christian Arroyo, but they haven't touched the pitching staff yet. The bullpen has some upside with Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, Will Smith, and Cody Gearrin pencilled in, among others, but they all come with their own question marks (except maybe Strickland), and the team's core of lefties (Smith, Ty Blach, Josh Osich, Steven Okert) is pretty mediocre. Watson, a lefty, hasn't posted an ERA above 3.38 since his rookie 2011 season, and was one of the most reliable lefties in baseball for the Pirates from 2013-2015 (1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 224.1 innings). His ERA went up in 2016 (3.06) and again in 2017 (3.38), and though his 1.38 WHIP in 2017 was the worst of his career, it may have been due to some batted ball luck. His .317 opponents' BABIP was also a career high, indicating bad luck, and his 22.5% hard contact rate was actually his lowest since 2014. However, on the down side, his 18.2% strikeout rate was a career low, so Watson ultimately has factors working for and against him in 2018, and we'll just have to wait and see. For his career, Watson is 33-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 474 appearances.
Three years, $7 million
After growing up in Iowa, attending Nebraska for college, and pitching for Pittsburgh for the first six and a half years of his career, Tony Watson was traded to the Dodgers in 2017 and I guess he liked the West Coast, as he has signed a three year deal with the Giants. San Francisco is desperately trying to turn its team around, having already acquired Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, and Gregor Blanco this year while more or less losing only Denard Span and Christian Arroyo, but they haven't touched the pitching staff yet. The bullpen has some upside with Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, Will Smith, and Cody Gearrin pencilled in, among others, but they all come with their own question marks (except maybe Strickland), and the team's core of lefties (Smith, Ty Blach, Josh Osich, Steven Okert) is pretty mediocre. Watson, a lefty, hasn't posted an ERA above 3.38 since his rookie 2011 season, and was one of the most reliable lefties in baseball for the Pirates from 2013-2015 (1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in 224.1 innings). His ERA went up in 2016 (3.06) and again in 2017 (3.38), and though his 1.38 WHIP in 2017 was the worst of his career, it may have been due to some batted ball luck. His .317 opponents' BABIP was also a career high, indicating bad luck, and his 22.5% hard contact rate was actually his lowest since 2014. However, on the down side, his 18.2% strikeout rate was a career low, so Watson ultimately has factors working for and against him in 2018, and we'll just have to wait and see. For his career, Watson is 33-17 with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 474 appearances.
Friday, February 16, 2018
Mets Seek Consistency, Add Jason Vargas
Jason Vargas: 18-11, 4.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 134/58 K/BB, 179.2 innings
Two years, $16 million
The Mets' rotation was plagued by injuries and inconsistency last season, with Noah Syndergaard (just seven starts), Matt Harvey (5-7, 6.70 ERA), Steven Matz (2-7, 6.08 ERA), and Robert Gsellman (8-7, 5.19 ERA) all failing to live up to expectations (in Syndergaard's case, through no fault of his own). Bringing in veteran Jason Vargas, who missed time to injuries in 2015 and 2016 but who has otherwise made at least 24 starts six times since 2010. Right now, the Mets' rotation has plenty of depth, but few sure things beyond Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Vargas will likely grab the third spot, and with Matt Harvey seemingly having the inside track to the fourth spot given his track record, that leaves a lot of competition for spot number five. Matz, Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Zack Wheeler all have starting experience in the majors, as does Chris Flexen (though he's less likely to get a spot). Vargas is coming off a solid season, going 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 32 starts. While I don't particularly care about his 18 wins, the fact that he made 32 starts was a good sign and his 17.7% strikeout rate was the highest full-season mark of his career. Though typically more of a fly ball pitcher, he was also able to just barely set a career full-season high with a 40.3% ground ball rate (just above his 40.2% rates in both 2012 and 2013). This isn't a top of the rotation pitcher, but it is a bit of consistency in a Mets rotation that badly needs it. For his career, the former LSU Tiger and Long Beach State Dirtbag is 85-81 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 248 games (228 starts) since 2005.
Two years, $16 million
The Mets' rotation was plagued by injuries and inconsistency last season, with Noah Syndergaard (just seven starts), Matt Harvey (5-7, 6.70 ERA), Steven Matz (2-7, 6.08 ERA), and Robert Gsellman (8-7, 5.19 ERA) all failing to live up to expectations (in Syndergaard's case, through no fault of his own). Bringing in veteran Jason Vargas, who missed time to injuries in 2015 and 2016 but who has otherwise made at least 24 starts six times since 2010. Right now, the Mets' rotation has plenty of depth, but few sure things beyond Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Vargas will likely grab the third spot, and with Matt Harvey seemingly having the inside track to the fourth spot given his track record, that leaves a lot of competition for spot number five. Matz, Gsellman, Seth Lugo, and Zack Wheeler all have starting experience in the majors, as does Chris Flexen (though he's less likely to get a spot). Vargas is coming off a solid season, going 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 32 starts. While I don't particularly care about his 18 wins, the fact that he made 32 starts was a good sign and his 17.7% strikeout rate was the highest full-season mark of his career. Though typically more of a fly ball pitcher, he was also able to just barely set a career full-season high with a 40.3% ground ball rate (just above his 40.2% rates in both 2012 and 2013). This isn't a top of the rotation pitcher, but it is a bit of consistency in a Mets rotation that badly needs it. For his career, the former LSU Tiger and Long Beach State Dirtbag is 85-81 with a 4.17 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 248 games (228 starts) since 2005.
Blue Jays Sign Jaime Garcia
Jaime Garcia: 5-10, 4.41 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 129/64 K/BB, 157 innings
One year, $8 million
The Blue Jays made a fairly similar signing to the Orioles' Andrew Cashner deal by bringing in veteran lefty Jaime Garcia. While the Blue Jays' rotation isn't nearly as atrocious as their AL East rival's, the team did lack a dependable fifth starter behind Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Aaron Sanchez, and Marco Estrada. Like Cashner, Garcia has been dominant at times; in 2010, he was 13-8 with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 28 starts, and in 2015, he was 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 20 starts. He has also been down; since 2016, Garcia is 15-23 with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 59 games (57 starts). He's unlikely to climb back to the heights he reached in 2016 and 2017, but he should be a valuable fifth starter at the very least (as long as he stays healthy), and could be a mid-rotation force if all goes well. For his career, the lefty out of the Rio Grande Valley is 67-55 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 185 games (174 starts). Interestingly, after spending 2008-2016 all with the Cardinals, the Blue Jays will be his fourth team in two seasons (he pitched for the Braves, Twins, and Yankees in 2017).
Thursday, February 15, 2018
Orioles Add Andrew Cashner to Empty Rotation
Andrew Cashner: 11-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 86/64 K/BB, 166.2 IP
Two years, $16 million, $10 million vesting player option for 2020 for 340 total innings pitched
Starting pitching has been a nightmare recently for the Orioles. Last season, their starters finished with a 5.70 ERA, the worst in all of baseball, and many of those starters aren't even returning. Gone are Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, and Wade Miley, leaving only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as returners with established starting experience. This is where Andrew Cashner, an eight year veteran with an inconsistent track record, comes in. He has certainly had his ups; from 2013-2014, he went 15-16 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 50 games (45 starts) for the Padres. However, there have also been lows; between the Padres and Marlins in 2016, he went 5-11 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts). 2017 was somewhat of a middle ground, as his 3.40 ERA was nice to look at, but he was helped by a .267 BABIP and that 86/64 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings was just a bit frightening. His tumbling strikeout rate, which has dropped from 20.5% in 2015 to 19.1% in 2016 to 12.2% in 2017, is likely a sign that Cashner isn't due for a long term deal, but he does a good-enough job of keeping the ball on the ground so he should be able to handle Camden Yards. Either way, he's a huge help to a rotation that looks to be headed by Kevin Gausman (11-12, 4.68 ERA) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA), with the final two spots to be made up of some combination of Gabriel Ynoa, Alec Asher, Miguel Castro, and possibly Mike Wright or Nestor Cortes, none of whom have spent even half a season starting in the major leagues. Hunter Harvey's eventual arrival can't come soon enough for Orioles fans. For his career, Cashner, a former TCU Horned Frog, is 42-64 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 230 games (137 appearances).
Two years, $16 million, $10 million vesting player option for 2020 for 340 total innings pitched
Starting pitching has been a nightmare recently for the Orioles. Last season, their starters finished with a 5.70 ERA, the worst in all of baseball, and many of those starters aren't even returning. Gone are Ubaldo Jimenez, Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, and Wade Miley, leaving only Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy as returners with established starting experience. This is where Andrew Cashner, an eight year veteran with an inconsistent track record, comes in. He has certainly had his ups; from 2013-2014, he went 15-16 with a 2.87 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 50 games (45 starts) for the Padres. However, there have also been lows; between the Padres and Marlins in 2016, he went 5-11 with a 5.25 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP over 28 games (27 starts). 2017 was somewhat of a middle ground, as his 3.40 ERA was nice to look at, but he was helped by a .267 BABIP and that 86/64 strikeout to walk ratio in 166.2 innings was just a bit frightening. His tumbling strikeout rate, which has dropped from 20.5% in 2015 to 19.1% in 2016 to 12.2% in 2017, is likely a sign that Cashner isn't due for a long term deal, but he does a good-enough job of keeping the ball on the ground so he should be able to handle Camden Yards. Either way, he's a huge help to a rotation that looks to be headed by Kevin Gausman (11-12, 4.68 ERA) and Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.24 ERA), with the final two spots to be made up of some combination of Gabriel Ynoa, Alec Asher, Miguel Castro, and possibly Mike Wright or Nestor Cortes, none of whom have spent even half a season starting in the major leagues. Hunter Harvey's eventual arrival can't come soon enough for Orioles fans. For his career, Cashner, a former TCU Horned Frog, is 42-64 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 230 games (137 appearances).
Saturday, February 10, 2018
Cubs Sign Yu Darvish
Yu Darvish: 10-12, 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 209/58 K/BB, 186.2 IP
Six years, $126 million, up to $24 million in incentives
We didn't think it would take until mid-February, but Yu Darvish signed the first nine-figure contract of the offseason. The Cubs ran away with the NL Central in 2016 and 2017, and they have quietly retooled their pitching staff to ensure it happens again in 2018, adding Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Brandon Morrow, and Steve Cishek in addition to Darvish while the Cardinals added Marcell Ozuna and the Brewers picked up Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Jhoulys Chacin. Darvish joins one of the better rotations in baseball, one that features Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and some combination of Drew Smyly/Eddie Butler/Mike Montgomery. Darvish is on somewhat of a downward career trajectory at least in terms of ERA, as it jumped from 2.83 in 2013 and 3.06 in 2014 to 3.41 in 2016 and 3.86 in 2017 (he sat out 2015 with Tommy John surgery), and his FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62) were both career worsts. However, between his time in the AL in Texas (first 22 starts) and the NL in Los Angeles (9 starts), his ERA (4.01 to 3.44), FIP (3.99 to 3.38), and xFIP (3.82 to 3.19) all dropped dramatically, and he is still a very useful mid-rotation starter. Those are hard to find nowadays, and in short demand, $126 million is a fair price. People may be worried about his poor World Series performance (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings over two starts), but small samples tend to get more credit than they deserve, and the bad starts are probably more due to random chance than any kind of inability to perform in the clutch or negative career trend. For his career, Darvish is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 1021/307 strikeout to walk ratio in 131 starts. 31 years old now, he'll be 37 at the end of the deal.
Six years, $126 million, up to $24 million in incentives
We didn't think it would take until mid-February, but Yu Darvish signed the first nine-figure contract of the offseason. The Cubs ran away with the NL Central in 2016 and 2017, and they have quietly retooled their pitching staff to ensure it happens again in 2018, adding Tyler Chatwood, Drew Smyly, Brandon Morrow, and Steve Cishek in addition to Darvish while the Cardinals added Marcell Ozuna and the Brewers picked up Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, and Jhoulys Chacin. Darvish joins one of the better rotations in baseball, one that features Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and some combination of Drew Smyly/Eddie Butler/Mike Montgomery. Darvish is on somewhat of a downward career trajectory at least in terms of ERA, as it jumped from 2.83 in 2013 and 3.06 in 2014 to 3.41 in 2016 and 3.86 in 2017 (he sat out 2015 with Tommy John surgery), and his FIP (3.83) and xFIP (3.62) were both career worsts. However, between his time in the AL in Texas (first 22 starts) and the NL in Los Angeles (9 starts), his ERA (4.01 to 3.44), FIP (3.99 to 3.38), and xFIP (3.82 to 3.19) all dropped dramatically, and he is still a very useful mid-rotation starter. Those are hard to find nowadays, and in short demand, $126 million is a fair price. People may be worried about his poor World Series performance (eight earned runs in 3.1 innings over two starts), but small samples tend to get more credit than they deserve, and the bad starts are probably more due to random chance than any kind of inability to perform in the clutch or negative career trend. For his career, Darvish is 56-42 with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 1021/307 strikeout to walk ratio in 131 starts. 31 years old now, he'll be 37 at the end of the deal.
Monday, February 5, 2018
Mets Fill Infield Hole With Todd Frazier
Todd Frazier: 27 HR, .213/.344/.428, 4 SB, 108 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR
Two years, $17 million
The Mets have added Todd Frazier on a two year deal, bringing in the Jersey kid from Toms River to man third base while Asdrubal Cabrera slides to second. Frazier, despite batting .213 in 2017, was much better than you might think, as his .344 on-base percentage was actually a career high and he blasted 27 home runs. Together, it amounted to a 108 wRC+, comfortably above league average and further proving that batting average does not matter. Frazier could also be even better in 2018, considering his .226 BABIP was the second lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball (just behind Rougned Odor's .224). While his .271 career BABIP is quite low (and career BABIP is less indicative of luck than single-season BABIP), he was still incredibly unlucky in 2017, and Statcast tagged him with an xwOBA (expected wOBA based on quality of contact) of .352, plenty higher than his actual mark of .335, so that bounce-back is completely possible. He walks, he hits for power, and his defense isn't half bad either, so $17 million over two years is certainly worthwhile for the Mets. Personally, I think New York could be better than expected in 2018, but that is only if they stay healthy. Frazier joins Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce among established hitters in the Mets' lineup, and young guys like Amed Rosario and Dom Smith could supplement them well. On the mound, there are a lot of question marks, but if everything breaks right, this team could win a Wild Card. For his career, Frazier has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.
Two years, $17 million
The Mets have added Todd Frazier on a two year deal, bringing in the Jersey kid from Toms River to man third base while Asdrubal Cabrera slides to second. Frazier, despite batting .213 in 2017, was much better than you might think, as his .344 on-base percentage was actually a career high and he blasted 27 home runs. Together, it amounted to a 108 wRC+, comfortably above league average and further proving that batting average does not matter. Frazier could also be even better in 2018, considering his .226 BABIP was the second lowest among all qualified hitters in baseball (just behind Rougned Odor's .224). While his .271 career BABIP is quite low (and career BABIP is less indicative of luck than single-season BABIP), he was still incredibly unlucky in 2017, and Statcast tagged him with an xwOBA (expected wOBA based on quality of contact) of .352, plenty higher than his actual mark of .335, so that bounce-back is completely possible. He walks, he hits for power, and his defense isn't half bad either, so $17 million over two years is certainly worthwhile for the Mets. Personally, I think New York could be better than expected in 2018, but that is only if they stay healthy. Frazier joins Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce among established hitters in the Mets' lineup, and young guys like Amed Rosario and Dom Smith could supplement them well. On the mound, there are a lot of question marks, but if everything breaks right, this team could win a Wild Card. For his career, Frazier has 175 home runs, a .245/.321/.459 slash line, and 21.2 fWAR over 938 games.
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