2018 Draft Review: Atlanta Braves

First 5 rounds: Carter Stewart (1-8), Greyson Jenista (2-49), Tristan Beck (4-112), Trey Riley (5-142)
Also notable: Andrew Moritz (6-172), Jake Higginbotham (11-322), Nolan Kingham (12-352), Brendan Venter (13-382), Zach Hess (34-1012)

The Braves didn't make their third selection until pick #112, but they still somehow managed to put together a very talented class because that's just what they do. Their farm system is already elite, and that's because of their excellent player development, and it definitely got better with this draft. They like to go for high-ceiling types, which is what they did here for the most part, and they usually hit on those guys, especially pitchers.

1-8: RHP Carter Stewart (my rank: 6)
Stewart shot up boards this spring, and by the end of it he was the top high school right handed pitcher in the class. The projectable 6'6" righty from Florida's Space Coast grew up a Braves fan, and now he's throwing in the mid 90's with a big dropping power curveball and a changeup that's coming along. On top of that, Stewart commands everything fairly well, not necessarily with pinpoint command but enough to set himself apart with other, wilder stuff-oriented pitchers. His delivery is deliberate and includes long arm action, but it's clean overall and there's no reason to think he won't be able to improve his command further. He has ace potential as a harder throwing Adam Wainwright, a fellow Braves first round pick out of high school on the south Atlantic coast, and there is no better place to reach that potential than in the Braves' system. He has not signed yet, with slot value sitting just under $5 million.

2-49: 1B Greyson Jenista (my rank: 25)
Jenista played for Wichita State, where he slashed .309/.446/.475 with nine home runs and a 41/50 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a big guy at 6'4" and 240 pounds, but he moves well for his size and actually stole 12 bases in 13 tries this year. Also despite his size, he's more contact and on-base ability over power at this point, keeping his strikeout rate at a reasonable 15.7% while walking at an excellent 19.2% rate to run his OBP up to .446, spraying line drives all over the field. I do see more power potential beyond the nine home runs he hit this year, and not just because of his size, as his swing is explosive and he leaves his hands back for a long time. Adding loft could help him hit 20-30 home runs per season, and he was drafted as a first baseman but does have the ability to play some outfield without being a liability. There were some complaints that he sometimes struggled with breaking stuff or against advanced pitching, which knocked him down to the second round, but I definitely like the bat. Jenista signed for $1.2 million, which saves the Braves $250,500 on slot value, and he's slashing .250/.348/.500 with three home runs and a 9/6 strikeout to walk ratio in ten games in the rookie level Appalachian League.

4-112: RHP Tristan Beck (my rank: 41)
Beck is a second or third round talent here in the fourth round. Both college baseball fans and draft fans should be very familiar with Beck, who served as the Stanford ace in 2016 and 2018 and was a top draft prospect in 2015 and 2017 in addition to 2018. Because he was old for his class with a June birthday, he was eligible for that 2017 draft, and a huge freshman season (6-5, 2.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 76/26 K/BB) had him slated to go as early as the back of the first round. However, he missed the entire season with a back injury and elected to return to school instead of sign, but took a slight step back this year. Through 15 starts, he went 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 90.2 innings, with his stuff reportedly taking a step back. He's more command over stuff, showing a low 90's fastball, a curveball that looked plus as a freshman but that has flattened out a little this year, and a very good changeup that can be an out pitch when the curve isn't on. He commands it all well usually, but that command wasn't quite as crisp this year as he was his freshman year. Essentially, you're looking at a bona fide mid rotation starter if he gets back to that freshman form, but he may be more of a #4 or #5 starter if he can't. As I said with Stewart, the Braves know how to get the most out of these guys. He hasn't signed yet, and though slot value is $497,800, he'll likely need a much higher bonus.

5-142: RHP Trey Riley (my rank: 98)
I couldn't find much video on Riley when I was researching him prior to the draft, but the scouting reports like him. He's a 6'2" righty out of John A. Logan Community College, the powerhouse JuCo in southern Illinois that also produced Orioles 2016 second rounder Matthias Dietz. Riley is likely a reliever, showing a quick arm that produces low to mid 90's fastballs and a very good slider to go along with a mediocre changeup. The changeup will have to take a leap forward if he wants to start, but if he gets put in the bullpen, he'll be able to scrap the changeup and sit in the mid 90's with his fastball and buckle hitters' knees with the slider. I especially don't think he sticks in the rotation given the Braves incredible pitching depth in their minor leagues. He signed for $450,000, which is $78,100 above slot. Through 2.1 innings in the Appy League, he has allowed three earned runs (11.57 ERA) on two hits, four walks, a hit by pitch, and three strikeouts.

Others: 6th rounder Andrew Moritz is notable for batting .406 at UNC-Greensboro over his entire three year career, finishing it off with a .428/.492/.637 line, six home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 27/28 strikeout to walk ratio in 54 games this year. The stat line says it all, as he is a contact-oriented hitter who doesn't miss much (10.7% strikeout rate this year), and he may have enough speed to stick in center field. Though he won't hit home runs, he has plenty of gap power with that speed and line drive bat. The one thing that scares me off Moritz a bit is his .243/.323/.279 slash line and 22/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 games in the Cape Cod League last summer, which raises the question of if his excellent stats this year are just a product of him playing weaker competition in the Southern Conference. 11th rounder Jake Higginbotham did a great job stepping back into the Clemson rotation this year (6-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 63/32 K/BB) after missing 2017 with an elbow injury, but he likely profiles as a reliever at the next level. The lefty should be able to run his fastball into the mid 90's and get additional outs with his pretty good slider if put in the 'pen. 12th rounder Nolan Kingham is a well known college arm who had a much better season in his sophomore season at Texas (10-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 67/24 K/BB) than in his junior season (8-5, 4.57 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 81/24 K/BB). His fastball has lost velocity and now sits around 90 after hitting 97 last year, which now gives less contrast with his hard upper 80's slider. He hasn't signed yet and I'm not sure that he will at all. 13th rounder Brendan Venter is another college performer (in case you haven't picked up what kind of players I like to highlight in this section), slashing .307/.385/.510 with 12 home runs and a 45/19 strikeout to walk ratio at Auburn this year. There is power in his bat, and he has a knack for hard contact, though his plate discipline definitely needs work. He was drafted as a first baseman so the bat will have to carry him. 34th rounder Zach Hess is more of a third or fourth round talent (he ranked #102 on my list) so he likely won't sign here unless the Braves take a significant chunk of money out of their bonus pool. He's a relief prospect out of LSU who was much better in 2017 (3.12 ERA, 83/30 K/BB) than he was this year (5.05 ERA, 107/49 K/BB). The 6'6" righty can hit the upper 90's when used in relief, and his slider can be a wipeout pitch. He'll try to rebuild his stock next year in Baton Rouge.

2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 High School RHP's

There has never been a right handed high school pitcher taken first overall, and that won't change this year, but there are plenty of guys who have stepped forward this spring and are pushing there way up into the first round. Georgia, Florida, and Texas are very well represented here, combining for eight of the top ten. You'll also notice that the shortest of the bunch stands 6'2" and that all of them can get into the mid 90's with ease.

1. Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
A breakout candidate to start the season, Stewart indeed broke out in a big way and pushed himself from the back of the first round all the way into possibly the top ten or even top five picks. He stands 6'6", and with a very deliberate delivery with long arm action, the ball just seems to jump out of his hand. He can run that fastball into the mid and even upper 90's, contrasting it with a big power curveball that gives hitters a different look than the sliders that are becoming more and more common. His changeup is coming along, but with that plus-plus fastball/curve combination, he's got plenty for an 18 year old high school senior. He's committed to Mississippi State but won't get there, looking to come off the board in the top ten picks.

2. Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
Winn is another riser, jumping from borderline first rounder to potential top ten pick. The 6'2" righty has bumped his fastball up to the low to mid 90's while sharpening his slider, and while his stuff isn't as explosive as Stewart's, his delivery is cleaner and he offers better control. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, one who already looks like a mid-rotation starter, and he's less of a bust candidate than most high school right handers. He also is known to have a very good work ethic, which is always a big bonus. He's committed to TCU but probably won't be around once the middle of the first round passes.

3. Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
The second straight Cole W. on this list, Wilcox has had a very good spring and has moved himself up draft boards in the process. Standing 6'5", he now works in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 a few times, and his changeup is extremely advanced for a high school pitcher. His slider is just decent, but it looks good at times and with pro coaching should become more consistently above average. Despite a weird delivery that includes a lot of moving parts and that will have to be altered, he throws plenty of strikes and is very polished for his age. He is old for his class, turning 19 in July, but that is okay given his polish. He's committed to Georgia and supposedly has a high price tag, but if teams are willing to pay up, he should be signable in that mid first round range.

4. Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
Rocker jumped onto the radar early, and though his stock has faded a little bit this spring, especially with a rough start against Wilcox at the end of the season, he still projects as a first round arm. The huge 6'5", 250 pound righty can run his fastball into the upper 90's and typically sits in the mid 90's with a wipeout slider. He usually has good command, but it can be inconsistent, as with his mechanics, and he carries considerable risk. However, if everything breaks right, he has ace potential. He's committed to Vanderbilt.

5. Ethan Hankins (Forsythe Central HS, GA)
Hankins marks the third straight North Georgia arm and the second straight Vanderbilt commit who has seen his stock drop this spring. Hankins has the best fastball in the entire draft class, throwing it in the mid 90's and running it up to 98, and it runs so much that he should be able to just blow it by hitters all the way up to the mid-minors. He also has a very good changeup that makes his fastball even more unhittable, though his slider has been down this spring and he'll need to refine it further if he wants to have any success as a starting pitcher. The big question mark for him, though, is health, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and took a while to look right, even after returning from it. If he blows out his shoulder, that could be a career changer, and not in a good way. He is a wild card in terms of where he will be drafted, possibly coming off the board as early as the middle of the first round but also possibly falling to the beginning of the second round and signing an over-slot deal.

6. Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
Like Hankins, Denaburg has also missed time this spring with injuries, but they're not as serious. He's a 6'3" righty with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and a curveball with good shape, though he'll need to improve its consistency. He's ultra-athletic, finding success as a hitter as well as a punter and kicker in football, so once he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to incorporate that athleticism into even better results. He's a bit raw mechanically, which is understandable. Because he's committed to Florida for both baseball and football, he'll be a tough sign, but teams like him and he could go as high as the middle of the first round.

7. Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
Rodriguez has been yet another riser this spring, showing up in better shape and with as much arm strength as anybody in the class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but he has run it up to 98 and its heavy life generates plenty of ground balls. His hard biting slider gives another look, and he can throw a curveball and a changeup as well. He has an arm-heavy delivery that includes holding the ball behind his back for a long time, which will probably have to be changed if he doesn't want to tip his pitches. The 6'5" Texan is committed to Texas A&M.

8. Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
Kloffenstein is another 6'5" Texas right hander, something of a cliche at this point, and while he doesn't throw as hard as Rodriguez, his slider is just as good and he also shows an advanced changeup. He can run his fastball into the mid 90's with sink, and like Rodriguez, he also has a curveball. Kloffenstein is young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and is committed to TCU. He is a teammate of fellow potential first rounder Jordan Groshans and could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the first half of the second round.

9. Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
Hoglund is a personal favorite of mine, one who hasn't gotten as much scouting love as I would think. He's a 6'4" righty who throws in the low to mid 90's, and while his fastball doesn't sink like Rodriguez's and Kloffenstein's, it has plenty of run. His curve is not as advanced as those above him, but I like its shape, and he throws a changeup as well. His command is good, as is his delivery, so all he really needs to focus on are those secondary pitches. He's committed to Ole Miss and is likely a second round pick.

10. Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
Torres is an interesting pitcher, one who is skinny and stands just 6'2", small for a pitcher, but he throws in the mid 90's and can unfurl a pretty good slider as well. He's from a cold weather state and is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until October, so he is a fresh arm that can be molded however his drafting team likes. There is some risk that he could wind up a reliever, but his ceiling is too good to pass up. He could come off the board as an under-slot pick at the back of the first round, but most likely fits in the supplemental round or in the second.

Others: Owen White (Carson HS, NC), J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS), Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR), Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX), Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)