The Reds' organization lacks a "wow" top prospect (there are enough questions surrounding Hunter Greene's health and secondary stuff that we should hold off on the "future ace" projections for now), but they do have a nice group of solid could-be's who are only an adjustment or two from becoming legitimate impact players. That group includes pitchers Greene, Tony Santillan, Packy Naughton, and Nick Lodolo, who could join the rotation sooner rather than later, and position players Jonathan India, Tyler Stephenson, Jose Garcia, Michael Siani, Tyler Callihan, and Rece Hinds all have impact potential at the plate. I think that makes it a pretty average system overall, though steps forward from Greene, Siani, Hinds, and/or James Marinan could change that, and the Reds would also like to see upper minors guys like Jose Siri, TJ Friedl, and Victor Gutierrez figure it out and fulfill their potential.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Chattanooga Lookouts, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level AZL and DSL Reds
Catcher
- Tyler Stephenson (2020 Age: 23): Stephenson was the Reds' first round pick out of an Atlanta-area high school in 2015, and like you'd expect for a high school catcher, he's moved slowly. Reaching AA in 2019, he slashed .285/.372/.410 with six home runs and a 60/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Chattanooga, nice numbers that were pretty consistent with what he did in 2017 and 2018. He's got some power in his 6'4" frame, though to this point he hasn't really tapped it and now after 376 pro games, he probably never will be the 25-30 home run bat he was projected as in high school. Still, with his strength and ability to keep the strikeouts low, he should profile for around 10-20 per season in the majors while posting solid on-base percentages, which combined with his strong defense means he could lock down a starting role. Tucker Barnhart and Curt Casali are capable but certainly not enough to block Stephenson, and he should be up at some point in 2020 and potentially the starter not long after.
- Eric Yang (2020 Age: 22): Yang was the Reds' seventh round pick out of UC-Santa Barbara in 2019, and a successful pro debut has him primed to work his way up as a potential backup catcher. Assigned to rookie level Billings, he hit .290/.428/.420 with four home runs and a 44/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games, showing that all of the strengths that the Reds drafted him for would at least play up in the low minors. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he has a very strong understanding of the strike zone and is more than capable of getting hits and posting high on-base percentages. Add in good defense, and he's a prototypical backup catcher.
- Keep an eye on: Hendrik Clementina, Jay Schuyler, Jose Tello
Corner Infield
- Jonathan India (2020 Age: 23): The Reds took India with the fifth overall pick in 2018 on the heels of a huge breakout season for Florida, though his bat has been just a bit lighter than expected in pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .259/.365/.402 with eleven home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 110/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. Known for both power and on-base ability at Florida, the on-base ability played up, but the power, not so much. There were concerns about India's power in college, as it showed up in spades with metal bats but did not in a small sample with wood bats, and 2019 didn't assuage those concerns that his power was a product of the metal bats. He's a strong defender at third base, taking some pressure off the bat, but it's not clear where he fits in the Cincinnati infield behind Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, and Mike Moustakas. Maybe he can handle shortstop, but that's a bit of a stretch. Either way, he'll want to rediscover that power stroke if he wants to live up to the expectations that come with being the fifth overall pick – if not, he projects for 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages, which is still good enough to start somewhere due to his good defense.
- Ibandel Isabel (2020 Age: 24-25): In 2019, the Reds deployed an alliterative 6'4" power hitter with strikeout concerns and Aristides Aquino turned out very well. They'll hope the same thing happens in 2020 with Ibandel Isabel, though Isabel's strikeout concerns may be even more pronounced. In 2019, he slashed .243/.307/.518 with 26 home runs and a 153/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Chattanooga, giving him three straight seasons with more than 25 home runs. Like India, he doesn't have a clear path to starting with Joey Votto firmly entrenched at his only position, and he definitely falls behind India on the depth chart if Votto gets hurt. Still, there's no denying Isabel's power, and he smokes left handed pitching enough (.330/.385/.588 in 2019) that he could profile well as a platoon or bench bat at the major league level as soon as 2020.
- Tyler Callihan (2020 Age: 19-20): The Reds took Callihan in the third round out of a Jacksonville high school in 2019, then signed him to an over slot deal to keep him from attending Florida. His successful pro debut saw him slash .263/.298/.442 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 50/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games at rookie affiliates Greeneville and Billings. Though he's a stocky 6'1", he stands out more for his contact ability than for his power at this point. Callihan had some of the best feel for the barrel in the 2019 high school class, which should help him avoid some of the bust risk of most other high schoolers, and he could also develop some power if he starts driving the ball in the air more. He does need to get a little more patient, as he makes such easy contact that he doesn't draw a lot of walks. Defensively, it's not clear where he'll end up, as he has decent arm strength but limited range, pointing to a career either at second or third base.
- Rece Hinds (2020 Age: 19): Hinds went in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2019, a round before Callihan, though he went 0-8 at rookie level Greeneville before lingering quad problems kept him out of action for the rest of the season. He's got a ton of raw power from the right side, and he's shown no trouble getting to it even against higher velocities. However, he's struggled against quality breaking stuff, so he might take a bit longer to develop than Callihan. The Reds can look to the Cardinals' success with Nolan Gorman, who had a similar profile coming out of high school, though Hinds probably needs even more work with that hit tool than Gorman did. Defensively, he was drafted as a shortstop but saw action exclusively at third base during his brief pro debut, and he'll need to work on his defensive game just to stay there and keep from ending up at first base. Given the presence of Eugenio Suarez, Jonathan India, and possibly Callihan at third base, first base seems more likely.
- Keep an eye on: Alejo Lopez
Middle Infield
- Alfredo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 25-26): The Reds signed Rodriguez out of Cuba for $7 million in 2016 because of his excellent defense at shortstop. All he needs to do is hit a little bit, but as I wrote last year, over his first couple of pro seasons he "didn't hit a lick" and in 2018 he slashed just .210/.273/.312. However, that started to change in 2019, as he slashed .267/.314/.327 with a home run, 16 stolen bases, and a 75/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, though he was much better at the lower level (.286/.325/.347 in 104 games) than the higher level (.169/.261/.221 in 23 games). That's not a stat line that screams future regular, as he still shows very little power except a little bit to the gaps, but at least he got on base at a decent clip against advanced pitching in AA. The calling card here is the glove, and if he can continue to tweak his approach and figure out how to get some singles, doubles, and walks at the major league level, he should be a nice utility infielder/defensive replacement in the near future.
- Jose Garcia (2020 Age: 22): The Reds plucked Garcia out of Cuba for $5 million in 2017 not long after they signed Rodriguez for similar money out of the same hometown of Havana. After slashing .245/.290/.344 in 2018, he took a step forward in 2019 by slashing .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs, 15 stolen bases, and an 83/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 104 games at High A Daytona Beach. He makes easy, consistent contact from the right side, and his ability to barrel the ball up helped him knock 37 doubles in addition to his eight home runs. He's an aggressive hitter that tends to put the ball in play early in the count, and while that hasn't hurt him to this point, it does limit his walk totals. He's a sound defensive shortstop who will stick there, and if all goes right and he keeps hitting the way he did in 2019, he could hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages and a few stolen bases, which should be good enough to start.
- Ivan Johnson (2020 Age: 21): Johnson looked overmatched as a freshman at Georgia, but he found his footing after transferring to Chipola Junior College for his sophomore season and hit his way to a fourth round selection in 2019. After being drafted, he hit .255/.327/.415 with six home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 46/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at rookie level Greeneville. He's a switch hitter that hits for a lot of impact with his explosive swing, and his plate discipline is trending in the right direction. He's not anything special defensively and probably fits best at second base, but with the upside in his bat, he may be able to start there as someone who could produce 15-20 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Yan Contreras, Jose Acosta
Outfield
- Jose Siri (2020 Age: 24-25): Siri had a big breakout year with Class A in 2017 (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530), though he hasn't been quite as flashy since reaching the upper minors. In 2019, he slashed .237/.300/.357 with 11 home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 165/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, and a 3-3 performance in his final game brought his AAA batting average up from .162 to .186. Siri is the most tooled up player in the system, and while his strengths are very clear, so are his weaknesses. He has a lot of raw pop in his 6'2" frame and explosive swing, but that comes with poor plate discipline that has kept him from getting to it consistently in the upper minors and which has suppressed his on-base percentages. At the same time, he has exceptional speed that has allowed him to swipe 20 or more bases in four straight seasons, as well as a plus arm in the outfield, though his instincts are just decent enough that he's more of a "very good" defender than an elite one. Set to turn 25 in July, he's not the youngest prospect any more, but it still remains to be seen what he turns into at the big league level, all depending on how he manages the strike zone against big league pitching.
- Stuart Fairchild (2020 Age: 24): Fairchild was a second round pick out of Wake Forest in 2017, and he's put up solid if unspectacular numbers as he's risen through the minors. In 2019, he slashed .264/.352/.441 with 12 home runs and an 83/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona Beach and AA Chattanooga, and he actually hit better at the higher level (.275/.380/.444) than at the lower level (.258/.335/.440). 2019 was a nice step forward for a few reasons, one being that he cut his strikeout rate when he got to AA and another being that he started to tap into a little bit of power – there's not a ton in his skinny, 6' frame, but by finding the barrel more in 2019, he naturally ran into more power. At this point, he looks like a fringe-starter who could hit around ten home runs per season with high on-base percentages and above average defense in the outfield, but he's trending in the right direction and he might not be too far off from reaching that projection.
- TJ Friedl (2020 Age: 24-25): Friedl went undrafted out of Nevada in 2016, but that was only because nobody, including himself, knew he was eligible, but once everyone figured it out, he signed for $735,000 (third round money) as a free agent. He hit really well in his first couple of pro seasons, but the bat has stalled so far in the upper minors and 2019 was a tough year. Bothered by ankle problems, he slashed just .235/.347/.385 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 50/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games at AA Chattanooga before he was finally shut down for the season in July, and while that certainly dents his stock, I wouldn't give up on him just yet. He still showed a great understanding of the strike zone while keeping his strikeouts down and his walks up against advanced pitching, and while he didn't hit for a ton of impact in 2019, he's previously shown great feel for the barrel that gives him plenty of gap power if not too much in the way of home run power. He also has a lot of speed that plays well on the bases and in the outfield, giving him a good chance to end up as a valuable fourth outfielder if he can bounce back with a healthy 2020.
- Jameson Hannah (2020 Age: 22-23): The A's drafted Hannah in the second round out of Dallas Baptist in 2018, then shipped him to the Reds for Tanner Roark in 2019. He slashed .274/.339/.369 with two home runs and a 104/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games between the two High A affiliates, though he did slump a bit at the end of the season. Hannah is a shorter guy at 5'9", but he has a quick swing and good feel for the barrel from the left side that should enable him to post high on-base percentages even if he lacks much in the way of power. He's also one of the faster runners in his new system, though he's still learning to deploy his speed effectively on the bases and in the outfield. He was young for a college draftee in 2018 and doesn't turn 23 until August, so while he has some work to do, he has a bit more time to figure it out as well. I don't think he'll hit enough to be a future leadoff man, but he has a high floor and should end up as a fourth outfielder.
- Andy Sugilio (2020 Age: 23): Sugilio has never been a big name, and it certainly wasn't after he slashed .221/.287/.288 as a 19 year old in the complex level Arizona League in 2016. However, he hit .345/.390/.472 in rookie ball in 2017 and .278/.308/.380 in Class A in 2018, then continued hitting in 2019 with a .294/.331/.360 slash line, three home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 92/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Daytona. He's moved very slowly through the minors, but he may finally be putting the pieces together with a quick, strong swing from the left side, natural power in his 6'2" frame, and enough speed to make him a weapon on the bases. He makes consistent hard contact and avoids strikeouts, but too often, he's been pounding the ball into the ground. If anybody could break out by joining the Fly Ball Revolution, it's Sugilio, and I'd be interested to see if he could match his career home run total (12 in 419 games) with a more fly ball-oriented approach in 2020.
- Michael Siani (2020 Age: 20-21): Siani was the Reds' fourth round pick out of a Philadelphia high school in 2018, though he signed for borderline first round money at $2 million then hit well in his pro debut (.288/.351/.386). In 2019, he slashed .253/.333/.339 with six home runs, 45 stolen bases, and a 109/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games at Class A Dayton, his speed showing up nicely but his power, not so much. Siani was supposed to be a bit of a project on offense, so a .333 on-base percentage in full season ball actually isn't too shabby for a 19-20 year old, and he did keep his strikeout rate reasonably low. The next step for him will be adding some power, as he has some natural pop in his 6'1" frame but didn't quite tap it as much as he may have liked to in the colder Midwest League environment. He's known for his speed and defense, as he'll definitely stick in center field as one of the best defenders in the system, which of course buys the bat plenty of time. The speed certainly showed up, too, as he was one of just ten minor leaguers to steal 45 bases this year. After Siri, he likely has the highest ceiling of any outfielder in this system as a true center fielder who can post high on-base percentages and 10-15 home runs per season, but he also has a lot of work to do to get there.
- Keep an eye on: Narciso Crook, Michael Beltre, Lorenzo Cedrola, Mariel Bautista, Quin Cotton, Wendell Marrero
Starting Pitching
- Tony Santillan (2020 Age: 23): The Reds drafted Santillan in the second round out of high school in Seguin, Texas in 2015, and he's risen slowly but steadily up the minor league ladder. After a dominant 2018 (3.08 ERA, 134/38 K/BB), he took a bit of a step back in 2019 by posting a 4.84 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 92/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AA Chattanooga, and he missed the last month of the season with triceps problems. He's got big league stuff, starting with a mid 90's fastball and also including a good slider and changeup, but after making big gains with his command in 2018, he regressed again in 2019. The command was shaky enough this year that he got hit much more than he should have given his stuff, and he'll have to get back to where he was last year if he wants to reach his ceiling as a #2 or #3 starter. That's really it on Santillan – put 2019 behind him, hit his spots like he did in 2018, and go from there.
- Vladimir Gutierrez (2020 Age: 24): The Reds signed three players from Havana in 2016 and 2017 for a combined $16.75 million, and Gutierrez, the cheapest of the three at $4.75 million, beat both Alfredo Rodriguez ($7 million) and Jose Garcia ($5 million) to AAA. After a strong 2018 in AA (4.35 ERA, 145/38 K/BB), he did struggle a bit with that assignment to AAA, posting a 6.04 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a 117/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 innings for Louisville, though he did finish strong with a 2.83 ERA and a 39/10 strikeout to walk ratio over his final five starts. He has a deep plunge in the back of his delivery, which helps him get good angle on all three of his pitches. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and he adds a nice two-plane curveball and a diving changeup, all of which benefit from that aforementioned angle. His control is solid, but he fell victim to the home run frequently in 2019 as he wasn't able to avoid barrels inside the zone as often as he would have liked. Gutierrez has big league stuff, so the key will be getting more consistent with his curveball and hitting his spots better on the corners. If he can do that, he'll be a #3 or a #4 starter, but if he can't, he's probably a reliever.
- Packy Naughton (2020 Age: 24): I watched Naughton extensively in college, and he's a really interesting case. At Virginia Tech, he flashed good stuff but struggled to command it, keep his delivery intact, and stay out of his own head, and he finished with a 6.15 ERA over three seasons. The Reds still drafted him in the ninth round in 2017, and the results were immediate. His stuff hasn't really taken a step forward and plays closer to average now that he's out of the ACC and into pro ball, but he's learned to repeat his delivery much more consistently and his command is now a tick above average. The adjustments enabled him to put up excellent numbers in 2019, including a 3.32 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157 innings at High A Daytona and AA Chattanooga. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, but they all play up because of his funky delivery that hitters just have a hard time picking up. That's probably a #4 starter profile in the majors, but the Reds have to be extremely happy with his development to this point and he still has a fallback option as a funky left handed reliever, where he should be very effective.
- Hunter Greene (2020 Age: 20-21): Sometimes injuries can be more disappointing than anything else, and while it's not surprising that a teenager who threw 102 would go down with Tommy John surgery, I think we all felt a little gut punch when it was announced Greene had blown out his elbow and would have to miss the 2019 season. Fortunately, he's still really young and doesn't turn 21 until August, so the 2017 second overall pick still has plenty of time to develop. The Reds will therefore take it slow with him in 2020 as he builds back his strength before hopefully cutting him loose in 2021. It's very clear where all the hype lies with Greene. His fastball sits consistently in the upper 90's with ease, and I saw him hit 102 in person – let me tell you, if you think you've ever seen someone throw a ball fast, you haven't. 102 is just different, plain and simple. Now he still had a 4.48 ERA in 2018 because the rest of his game needs work. His slider looks like a plus pitch at times, but he doesn't always get the shape on it that he wants, and his changeup is more or less average. He's an exceptional athlete with an easy delivery, but his command plays closer to average and he still needs to hit his spots more consistently. Greene has a lot of work to do, and with that velocity and his work ethic, anything is possible, but I'd project him more as a mid-rotation starter than as an ace at this point.
- Mac Sceroler (2020 Age: 25): Sceroler was the Reds' fifth round pick out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2017, then after an up and down first full season in 2018 (4.97 ERA, 81/30 K/BB), he broke out in 2019 to put himself on the map. This year, he had a 3.69 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 127/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A Daytona, a step forward in his command being the major difference. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a good curveball and a changeup, a fringy group of pitches as a whole but one that plays up nicely now that he's been controlling the zone better. He turns 25 at the start of the season, so he's not the youngest prospect in the system, but he has back of the rotation potential.
- Nick Lodolo (2020 Age: 22): Drafted 41st overall by the Pirates in 2016, Lodolo instead went to TCU and after two good-not-great seasons, he put it together in his junior year and found himself drafted seventh overall by the Reds as the first pitcher taken off the board. He didn't pitch much after a long college season, but still posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, 30 strikeouts in 18.1 innings without walking a single batter (though he did hit one) at rookie level Billings and Class A Dayton. He's a 6'6" lefty that cleaned up his mechanics in 2019, and that enabled him to throw more strikes and get more out of his stuff. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but it plays up due to the angle he gets on it, and he's moved away from an average curveball towards a sharper slider, which he's still figuring out. He also adds a good changeup, and together that's the upside of a #2 or #3 starter if he can sharpen that slider further. With his good command, he should move relatively quickly through the minors.
- Lyon Richardson (2020 Age: 20): The Reds have a couple of power high school arms down in their low minors, and while Jacob Heatherly and James Marinan have gotten off to slow starts, Richardson was solid in his first full season. The Reds drafted him in the second round out of the Florida high school ranks in 2018, and after getting knocked around in his pro debut (7.14 ERA, 24/16 K/BB), he posted a 4.15 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 106/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 112.2 innings at Class A Dayton in 2019. His fastball is his best weapon, sitting in the low to mid 90's, and his slider has improved in pro ball to give him a second good pitch. He's still working on getting more consistent with his curve and his changeup, but he also made progress with his command in 2019, which is now closer to average. There's a lot more work to be done here, but he's a better pitcher than he was a year ago, and the Reds hope he'll maintain that trajectory in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Tejay Antone, Jared Solomon, Ryan Lillie, James Marinan, Graham Ashcraft, Jacob Heatherly
Relief Pitching
- Joel Kuhnel (2020 Age: 25): If we're talking about Kuhnel, we're talking about velocity. The Reds' eleventh round pick out of UT-Arlington in 2016 sits in the upper 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, both of which can creep above 90. Additionally, the 6'5" righty can command everything very well, which is not common for pitchers who throw that hard. In 2019, he had a 2.18 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, and a 50/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings at AA Chattanooga and AAA Louisville, then put up a 4.66 ERA and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 9.2 big league innings. As it stands, Kuhnel is probably more of a middle reliever than a late inning type, but just a little bit of refinement to either of his secondary pitches, which stand out more for their velocity than for their movement, could get him there.
- Jose De Leon (2020 Age: 27-28): The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round out of Southern University way back in 2013, but he quickly established himself as a big time arm and reached the majors in 2016. However, he's battled numerous injuries and has been traded twice since then, first to the Rays for Logan Forsythe in 2017 then, after Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2018 season, to the Reds for cash or a player to be named later in 2019. This past year in the Rays organization, he had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 74/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 innings between High A and AAA, and over three years in the majors, he has a 6.08 ERA and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.2 innings. He's still a starter at this point, he's probably better off in the bullpen given the competition at the top of the Reds' system as well as his long history of arm troubles. His velocity has fluctuated but he can sit in the low to mid 90's at best, and he adds a slider and a true weapon of a changeup. His command has been understandably inconsistent, but a move to the bullpen could enable him to focus on his fastball/changeup combination and hopefully take some of the strain off his arm. It would also enable him to contribute immediately in 2020.
- Ryan Hendrix (2020 Age: 25): The Reds picked Hendrix in the fifth round of the 2016 draft out of Texas A&M, and he's pitched really well with a 2.55 ERA so far in the minors. In 2019, he had a 1.85 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 31/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 24.1 innings between AA Chattanooga and complex level rehab work, though he missed a big chunk of the season with elbow problems. Fortunately, he made a healthy return in July, and he was back to throwing mid 90's fastballs and power curveballs that could carve through minor league bats. That breaking ball is sharper than Kuhnel's, but he doesn't have the same kind of command, as his has been much spottier. Health is obviously the first big thing, but if he can prove that, he'll also need to throw more consistent strikes if he wants to be more than a middle reliever. He does have the stuff to profile in the late innings.
- Keep an eye on: Michael Byrne, Dauri Moreta, Diomar Lopez, Randy Wynne, Matt Pidich
Showing posts with label Michael Siani. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Siani. Show all posts
Saturday, December 28, 2019
Tuesday, January 29, 2019
Reviewing the Cincinnati Reds Farm System
The Reds don't have the deepest farm system in the world, but their top five rivals some of the best in the game, giving them a very good chance at having two star, homegrown infielders (Nick Senzel and Jonathan India), a star, homegrown outfielder (Taylor Trammell), and two star, home grown pitchers (Hunter Greene and Tony Santillan). Beyond those five, there aren't many impact prospects, with most of the rest of the better prospects being lower down in the minors as recent draftees or signees, especially with Shed Long gone to the Mariners. By the time you read this, the list might look very different with a potential J.T. Realmuto trade in the works as I write this.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos*, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level GCL and DSL Reds
*AA affiliate will move from Pensacola, FL to Chattanooga, TN in 2019
The Big Five: 3B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell, 3B Jonathan India, RHP Tony Santillan, and RHP Hunter Greene
The Reds have one of the best top fives in baseball, and these guys alone make the system one of the game's best. We'll start with 23 year old Nick Senzel, a former second overall pick (2016) out of Tennessee who slashed .310/.378/.509 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 39/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at AAA Louisville this year, though vertigo and a finger injury limited his time on the field. He's hoping to be fully healthy in 2019, where he'll have a chance to crack the major league roster with his broad skill set; he makes consistent hard contact, shows some power, and plays very good defense at third base. He's currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base and by Scooter Gennett at second, but with a bat (and glove) like his, the Reds will find a place to put him. Senzel is not too dissimilar to Jose Ramirez as a player (though he's a little bigger and can't switch hit) and if everything works out, he could have a similar career in Cincinnati as a best-case scenario. A little lower down is 21 year old and fellow 2016 draftee (competitive balance round, 35th overall) Taylor Trammell, who slashed .277/.375/.406 with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 105/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Daytona. He is a very hard-working player who shows a great feel for the barrel and is beginning to grow into some power, giving him the chance to be an impact bat who can also steal plenty of bases. Defensively, he's closer to average in the outfield than you would expect given his profile, but he's young and the Reds have high hopes that he continues to improve his game to the point where he becomes a long-term starting center or left fielder with 20-20 ability. 22 year old Jonathan India was just drafted fifth overall in 2018 following a monster junior season at Florida (21 HR, .350/.497/.717), which he then followed up with a productive pro debut where he slashed .240/.380/.433 with six home runs and a 44/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between rookie affiliates Billings and Greeneville as well as Class A Dayton. He's currently hit over power and I think he'll stay that way, but with solid infield defense, he should have no problem remaining a high level prospect even if the power doesn't reach better than average. I'm not as high on India as some evaluators, but he's still an exciting prospect who projects to post high on-base percentages and double digit home run totals while holding down a starting infield spot in the majors. 21 year old Tony Santillan was actually a 2015 draftee (second round, 49th overall) out of a central Texas high school, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 134/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149 innings at Daytona and AA Pensacola in 2018 to really establish himself as an impact pitching prospect. He easily sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, and when you combine that stuff with his pretty good command, he's a well rounded prospect with a #2 starter ceiling and with less risk than many high-upside guys. Further honing in his control will help him reach that ceiling, where he could stick in the Reds rotation for a long time, but even as-is he could probably cut it as a back-end guy. Lastly, we have 19 year old Hunter Greene, the fireballing right hander who was taken second overall out of high school in southern California in 2017. Greene had mixed results in his full season debut this year, posting a 4.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 89/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings at Class A Dayton. The first thing that jumps out with Greene is his fastball, which sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103. I saw him pitch at the All Star Futures Game in Washington this past summer, and let me tell you, even from the right field bleachers I could tell that his fastball was simply next-level. His slider is coming along and for such a young player (he won't even turn 20 until August) with such elite velocity, his command is actually pretty good. The major drawback for Greene is injury risk, as is always the case with pitchers who throw so hard, and his elbow strain that caused him to miss some time in 2018 isn't easing anyone's minds. He's said to be fully healthy at this point, so we should all be crossing our fingers that he stays that way because frankly, he's simply fun to watch. Even if durability concerns or slower-than-expected development of his offspeeds force him from the rotation, he has closer upside out of the bullpen.
Outfield Group: OF TJ Friedl, OF Jose Siri, OF Stuart Fairchild, OF Michael Beltre, OF Mariel Bautista, and OF Mike Siani
Arguably the deepest part of the Cincinnati farm system is the outfield, where Taylor Trammell leads a large group of talented players looking to break through in the future. Trammell aside, the most advanced prospect is 23 year old TJ Friedl, who never registered for the 2016 draft because he (and somehow, MLB's thirty clubs) did not realize he was eligible. The Reds won a bidding war and gave him the largest signing bonus ever for an un-drafted free agent at $735,000, and he hit the ground running. In 2018, he slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 100/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for High A Daytona and AA Pensacola, showing great on-base ability and speed along the way. At just 5'10", he lacks much present power and is unlikely to develop much down the line, but with the aforementioned speed and high on-base percentages, he shouldn't need it to reach the majors. That lack of power does, however, make him less likely to become a full-time starter in the majors, but there is still a chance if he hits enough. His defense is fairly average despite his speed, so it neither hurts nor helps his case. 23 year old Jose Siri is a raw, toolsy player who slashed .239/.294/.449 with 13 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 123/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Daytona and Pensacola, which was a step back from his big 2017 in Class A (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530). He has that power/speed combination that scouts love, and his cannon arm only helps his case as an excellent baseball athlete. However, he struggles to get to that power in games, leaving evaluators wondering if he will ever hit enough to hold down a starting spot in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and his swing and miss tendencies caught up to him in High A and AA this year. He needs more seasoning in the minors, but he still has a very high ceiling if he can make everything click, because power hitters who can nail runners at the plate with great throws from center field can naturally contribute to their teams in a lot of ways. He just has to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Behind Friedl and Siri is 22 year old Stuart Fairchild, a former second round pick (38th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017 who slashed .264/.344/.407 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 128/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Class A Dayton and Daytona. He doesn't have the prettiest swing in the world but he takes an advanced approach to the plate and makes good contact, giving him high on-base percentages. He's also fast and covers plenty of ground in the outfield, taking some pressure off the bat, but I wasn't a huge fan on draft day and that hasn't changed. He seems like a fourth outfielder to me and I would call Friedl the better prospect, though he can change that by cutting his strikeout rate in 2019. 23 year old Michael Beltre has moved slowly through the system, and he spent 2018 slashing .278/.397/.402 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 85/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at Dayton and Daytona. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him adjust well to A ball and should help him adjust to AA in 2019, though the bat itself lacks much punch aside from some gap power. His speed and advanced approach buy the bat time, but he's unlikely to end up more than a fourth outfielder if something big doesn't change with the bat. 21 year old Mariel Bautista, like Beltre, has moved slowly, and he slashed .330/.386/.541 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 29/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Billings. The numbers were fantastic, but it's important to remember that he was 20 years old facing mostly teenage or just-out-of-college competition, and his transition to full season ball, especially above Class A, will be important in accurately evaluating him. In rookie ball, he showed power, speed, and a great ability to avoid strikeouts, and if he keeps that up as he moves through the minors, he'll be a legitimate prospect. For now, we're more in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, 19 year old Mike Siani was just drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of high school in Philadelphia, and he had a successful debut by slashing .288/.351/.386 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games with rookie level Greeneville. On draft day, he was more well known for his great defense than his bat, which needed refinement, but the successful run through Appalachian League pitching shows that the bat might be more advanced than initially expected. I actually think that some power will come too, which will make him a complete player if everything holds up. Of course, that's a big "if" because 46 games in rookie ball isn't the be-all, end-all, but signs are pointing up for Siani and he could be one of the team's top prospects a year from now.
Infielders and Catchers: C Tyler Stephenson, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, SS Jose Garcia, and 1B Ibandel Isabel
It's a good thing that two of the Reds' best prospects are Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, because after those two, there isn't much in terms of infielders in this system. They do have one viable catcher in 22 year old Tyler Stephenson, which is not something all systems can say, and Stephenson just slashed .250/.338/.392 with 11 home runs and a 98/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona. He's an uncommon catching prospect who can both field and hit, though both will continue to need work. He's got power but doesn't always get to it, and with his moderate on-base ability, the bat is fairly fringy overall. Fortunately for him, the offensive bar for catchers is low and the Reds will give him plenty of time to figure out how to get to his power more consistently, in which case he could be a starting major league catcher. 24 year old Alfredo Rodriguez, who signed for $7 million out of Cuba in 2016, is an interesting prospect because he's a fantastic defender at shortstop but so far in his three minor league seasons, he hasn't hit a lick. In 2018, he slashed .210/.273/.312 with two home runs and a 32/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in complex ball, Daytona, and AA Pensacola while missing time with wrist issues. Having a wicked glove at a premium position will buy your bat all the slack in the world (see Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith), but the bat has to do something in order for him to be useful in the long run. If the bat picks up to the point where he can hit some doubles and get on base at a .300 clip next season, he could crack it as a utility infielder in the majors. 20 year old Jose Garcia signed for $5 million out of Cuba a year after Rodriguez, but so far, he has hit a little better than is elder (and higher paid) counterpart. In his first pro season in 2018, he slashed .245/.290/.344 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Dayton. He's a solid defender at shortstop but not nearly of Rodriguez's caliber, though he's also almost four years younger and hasn't been completely inept at the plate. His plate discipline needs a ton of work and he was overmatched at times by Midwest League pitching, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a guy who can impact the game with more than just his speed. At this point, consider Garcia kind of a wild card, ultimately taking on a utility infielder projection for now but with more (or less) possible. Lastly, 23 year old Ibandel Isabel has some of the most impressive raw power in the system, finishing a 2018 where he blasted 36 home runs and slashed .257/.332/.562 with a 161/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in High A. Isabel was acquired from the Dodgers for Ariel Hernandez back in April and can really put a charge into the ball, but his sub-par plate discipline leads to far too many strikeouts at this point. He will have to really improve his approach if he wants to produce in the high minors and the majors, and as a first baseman, his defense isn't buying his bat any slack. That said, that power could play really well in Great American Ballpark if he can just get the bat on the ball at a decent rate.
The Pitchers: RHP Keury Mella, RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, LHP Scott Moss, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Jimmy Herget, and RHP James Marinan
Even after Tony Santillan and Hunter Greene, the Reds still have a solid group of pitchers to develop with a variety of skills and projections. 25 year old Keury Mella, who was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2012, was acquired with Adam Duvall in the 2015 Mike Leake trade and has seemingly been a prospect forever. This year, the 6'2" righty posted a 3.00 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville, also adding four unsuccessful major league appearances (8.68 ERA, 8/8 K/BB). He is presently and always has been about stuff over refinement, coming in with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider but lacking much else to really get himself over the hump and be successful in the majors. He clearly has the minor leagues handled judging by his good numbers in the high minors this year, but major league hitters punish his mistakes too regularly. He still has a shot to compete as a starter, but converting him to relief, where his fastball/slider combination could play up, could help him finally stick in the majors for good. 23 year old Vladimir Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba in 2016, and he reached AA in 2018 and posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 145/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings with Pensacola. Though he's just six feet tall, Gutierrez has very high upside with his stuff (mid 90's fastball, bat-missing slider) and control that a lot of other young pitchers struggle to put together. He has been plagued by inconsistency in his career, looking like an ace at times and like the opposite at others, but he has been getting better about bringing the same stuff and control from start to start and 2019 could be a real breakout year for him. If not, he could find himself in a similar limbo to Keury Mella down the line. 24 year old Scott Moss has moved slowly for a college pitcher coming from a major program, in this case Florida, spending 2018 at High A and posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Daytona. The 6'5" lefty doesn't have a standout pitch but uses his pitchability well, and if he can improve his command a little bit, he could sneak up as a back-end starter. Not that it matters, but Moss has been very lucky when it comes to run support and carries an impressive 31-11 record over three minor league seasons, including a 15-4 mark in 2018. I watched 22 year old Packy Naughton a lot in college at Virginia Tech, and he's interesting to say the least. He has a delivery, a funky name, and even a funky throws left/bats right profile. He dominated the Cape Cod League, the nation's premier collegiate summer league, with a 1.69 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings in 2016, but sucked in his three years at Virginia Tech from 2015-2017 (7-14, 6.13 ERA, 172/87 K/BB) even after the strong Cape performance. Admittedly, Virginia Tech's program as a whole was sub-par while he was there to say the least, and he has taken better than I expected to pro ball. In 2018, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 137/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at Class A Dayton, showing much better control than he had in college. His stuff is largely average but the quirkiness in his delivery makes it play up, and the Reds must have done something with his mechanics because he's in the strike zone much more. He's still inconsistent, though he has had quite a few more good days in pro ball than he had in college and while I saw him as a reliever back then, he might be able to crack it as a back-end starter with a little more refinement. 25 year old Jimmy Herget is a relief prospect who faired well this year by posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings at AAA Louisville, doing so with a very good fastball/slider combination that can come from multiple arm angles. Dominant for his first three pro seasons after being drafted out of USF in the sixth round, he finally had to start making adjustments in AAA, but the 6'3" righty is major league ready and should compete for a middle relief spot in 2019 with a larger role possible if he's successful. Lastly, 20 year old James Marinan came over from the Dodgers in the small Dylan Floro trade in July, and he posted a 3.35 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 50/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings in complex ball and rookie level Billings. He was a fourth round pick out of a south Florida high school in 2017 and he's mostly about his fastball at this point; he throws in the low to mid 90's and gets a lot of ground balls from a 6'5" frame, though the rest of his stuff is yet to take the step forward. That's okay considering he'll spend the entire 2019 season at 20 years old, and if just one of his slider, curveball, or changeup becomes a little sharper in full season ball, the Reds will suddenly have a potential impact pitching prospect on their hands.
Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos*, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level GCL and DSL Reds
*AA affiliate will move from Pensacola, FL to Chattanooga, TN in 2019
The Big Five: 3B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell, 3B Jonathan India, RHP Tony Santillan, and RHP Hunter Greene
The Reds have one of the best top fives in baseball, and these guys alone make the system one of the game's best. We'll start with 23 year old Nick Senzel, a former second overall pick (2016) out of Tennessee who slashed .310/.378/.509 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 39/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at AAA Louisville this year, though vertigo and a finger injury limited his time on the field. He's hoping to be fully healthy in 2019, where he'll have a chance to crack the major league roster with his broad skill set; he makes consistent hard contact, shows some power, and plays very good defense at third base. He's currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base and by Scooter Gennett at second, but with a bat (and glove) like his, the Reds will find a place to put him. Senzel is not too dissimilar to Jose Ramirez as a player (though he's a little bigger and can't switch hit) and if everything works out, he could have a similar career in Cincinnati as a best-case scenario. A little lower down is 21 year old and fellow 2016 draftee (competitive balance round, 35th overall) Taylor Trammell, who slashed .277/.375/.406 with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 105/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Daytona. He is a very hard-working player who shows a great feel for the barrel and is beginning to grow into some power, giving him the chance to be an impact bat who can also steal plenty of bases. Defensively, he's closer to average in the outfield than you would expect given his profile, but he's young and the Reds have high hopes that he continues to improve his game to the point where he becomes a long-term starting center or left fielder with 20-20 ability. 22 year old Jonathan India was just drafted fifth overall in 2018 following a monster junior season at Florida (21 HR, .350/.497/.717), which he then followed up with a productive pro debut where he slashed .240/.380/.433 with six home runs and a 44/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between rookie affiliates Billings and Greeneville as well as Class A Dayton. He's currently hit over power and I think he'll stay that way, but with solid infield defense, he should have no problem remaining a high level prospect even if the power doesn't reach better than average. I'm not as high on India as some evaluators, but he's still an exciting prospect who projects to post high on-base percentages and double digit home run totals while holding down a starting infield spot in the majors. 21 year old Tony Santillan was actually a 2015 draftee (second round, 49th overall) out of a central Texas high school, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 134/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149 innings at Daytona and AA Pensacola in 2018 to really establish himself as an impact pitching prospect. He easily sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, and when you combine that stuff with his pretty good command, he's a well rounded prospect with a #2 starter ceiling and with less risk than many high-upside guys. Further honing in his control will help him reach that ceiling, where he could stick in the Reds rotation for a long time, but even as-is he could probably cut it as a back-end guy. Lastly, we have 19 year old Hunter Greene, the fireballing right hander who was taken second overall out of high school in southern California in 2017. Greene had mixed results in his full season debut this year, posting a 4.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 89/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings at Class A Dayton. The first thing that jumps out with Greene is his fastball, which sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103. I saw him pitch at the All Star Futures Game in Washington this past summer, and let me tell you, even from the right field bleachers I could tell that his fastball was simply next-level. His slider is coming along and for such a young player (he won't even turn 20 until August) with such elite velocity, his command is actually pretty good. The major drawback for Greene is injury risk, as is always the case with pitchers who throw so hard, and his elbow strain that caused him to miss some time in 2018 isn't easing anyone's minds. He's said to be fully healthy at this point, so we should all be crossing our fingers that he stays that way because frankly, he's simply fun to watch. Even if durability concerns or slower-than-expected development of his offspeeds force him from the rotation, he has closer upside out of the bullpen.
Outfield Group: OF TJ Friedl, OF Jose Siri, OF Stuart Fairchild, OF Michael Beltre, OF Mariel Bautista, and OF Mike Siani
Arguably the deepest part of the Cincinnati farm system is the outfield, where Taylor Trammell leads a large group of talented players looking to break through in the future. Trammell aside, the most advanced prospect is 23 year old TJ Friedl, who never registered for the 2016 draft because he (and somehow, MLB's thirty clubs) did not realize he was eligible. The Reds won a bidding war and gave him the largest signing bonus ever for an un-drafted free agent at $735,000, and he hit the ground running. In 2018, he slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 100/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for High A Daytona and AA Pensacola, showing great on-base ability and speed along the way. At just 5'10", he lacks much present power and is unlikely to develop much down the line, but with the aforementioned speed and high on-base percentages, he shouldn't need it to reach the majors. That lack of power does, however, make him less likely to become a full-time starter in the majors, but there is still a chance if he hits enough. His defense is fairly average despite his speed, so it neither hurts nor helps his case. 23 year old Jose Siri is a raw, toolsy player who slashed .239/.294/.449 with 13 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 123/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Daytona and Pensacola, which was a step back from his big 2017 in Class A (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530). He has that power/speed combination that scouts love, and his cannon arm only helps his case as an excellent baseball athlete. However, he struggles to get to that power in games, leaving evaluators wondering if he will ever hit enough to hold down a starting spot in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and his swing and miss tendencies caught up to him in High A and AA this year. He needs more seasoning in the minors, but he still has a very high ceiling if he can make everything click, because power hitters who can nail runners at the plate with great throws from center field can naturally contribute to their teams in a lot of ways. He just has to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Behind Friedl and Siri is 22 year old Stuart Fairchild, a former second round pick (38th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017 who slashed .264/.344/.407 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 128/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Class A Dayton and Daytona. He doesn't have the prettiest swing in the world but he takes an advanced approach to the plate and makes good contact, giving him high on-base percentages. He's also fast and covers plenty of ground in the outfield, taking some pressure off the bat, but I wasn't a huge fan on draft day and that hasn't changed. He seems like a fourth outfielder to me and I would call Friedl the better prospect, though he can change that by cutting his strikeout rate in 2019. 23 year old Michael Beltre has moved slowly through the system, and he spent 2018 slashing .278/.397/.402 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 85/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at Dayton and Daytona. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him adjust well to A ball and should help him adjust to AA in 2019, though the bat itself lacks much punch aside from some gap power. His speed and advanced approach buy the bat time, but he's unlikely to end up more than a fourth outfielder if something big doesn't change with the bat. 21 year old Mariel Bautista, like Beltre, has moved slowly, and he slashed .330/.386/.541 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 29/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Billings. The numbers were fantastic, but it's important to remember that he was 20 years old facing mostly teenage or just-out-of-college competition, and his transition to full season ball, especially above Class A, will be important in accurately evaluating him. In rookie ball, he showed power, speed, and a great ability to avoid strikeouts, and if he keeps that up as he moves through the minors, he'll be a legitimate prospect. For now, we're more in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, 19 year old Mike Siani was just drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of high school in Philadelphia, and he had a successful debut by slashing .288/.351/.386 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games with rookie level Greeneville. On draft day, he was more well known for his great defense than his bat, which needed refinement, but the successful run through Appalachian League pitching shows that the bat might be more advanced than initially expected. I actually think that some power will come too, which will make him a complete player if everything holds up. Of course, that's a big "if" because 46 games in rookie ball isn't the be-all, end-all, but signs are pointing up for Siani and he could be one of the team's top prospects a year from now.
Infielders and Catchers: C Tyler Stephenson, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, SS Jose Garcia, and 1B Ibandel Isabel
It's a good thing that two of the Reds' best prospects are Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, because after those two, there isn't much in terms of infielders in this system. They do have one viable catcher in 22 year old Tyler Stephenson, which is not something all systems can say, and Stephenson just slashed .250/.338/.392 with 11 home runs and a 98/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona. He's an uncommon catching prospect who can both field and hit, though both will continue to need work. He's got power but doesn't always get to it, and with his moderate on-base ability, the bat is fairly fringy overall. Fortunately for him, the offensive bar for catchers is low and the Reds will give him plenty of time to figure out how to get to his power more consistently, in which case he could be a starting major league catcher. 24 year old Alfredo Rodriguez, who signed for $7 million out of Cuba in 2016, is an interesting prospect because he's a fantastic defender at shortstop but so far in his three minor league seasons, he hasn't hit a lick. In 2018, he slashed .210/.273/.312 with two home runs and a 32/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in complex ball, Daytona, and AA Pensacola while missing time with wrist issues. Having a wicked glove at a premium position will buy your bat all the slack in the world (see Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith), but the bat has to do something in order for him to be useful in the long run. If the bat picks up to the point where he can hit some doubles and get on base at a .300 clip next season, he could crack it as a utility infielder in the majors. 20 year old Jose Garcia signed for $5 million out of Cuba a year after Rodriguez, but so far, he has hit a little better than is elder (and higher paid) counterpart. In his first pro season in 2018, he slashed .245/.290/.344 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Dayton. He's a solid defender at shortstop but not nearly of Rodriguez's caliber, though he's also almost four years younger and hasn't been completely inept at the plate. His plate discipline needs a ton of work and he was overmatched at times by Midwest League pitching, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a guy who can impact the game with more than just his speed. At this point, consider Garcia kind of a wild card, ultimately taking on a utility infielder projection for now but with more (or less) possible. Lastly, 23 year old Ibandel Isabel has some of the most impressive raw power in the system, finishing a 2018 where he blasted 36 home runs and slashed .257/.332/.562 with a 161/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in High A. Isabel was acquired from the Dodgers for Ariel Hernandez back in April and can really put a charge into the ball, but his sub-par plate discipline leads to far too many strikeouts at this point. He will have to really improve his approach if he wants to produce in the high minors and the majors, and as a first baseman, his defense isn't buying his bat any slack. That said, that power could play really well in Great American Ballpark if he can just get the bat on the ball at a decent rate.
The Pitchers: RHP Keury Mella, RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, LHP Scott Moss, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Jimmy Herget, and RHP James Marinan
Even after Tony Santillan and Hunter Greene, the Reds still have a solid group of pitchers to develop with a variety of skills and projections. 25 year old Keury Mella, who was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2012, was acquired with Adam Duvall in the 2015 Mike Leake trade and has seemingly been a prospect forever. This year, the 6'2" righty posted a 3.00 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville, also adding four unsuccessful major league appearances (8.68 ERA, 8/8 K/BB). He is presently and always has been about stuff over refinement, coming in with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider but lacking much else to really get himself over the hump and be successful in the majors. He clearly has the minor leagues handled judging by his good numbers in the high minors this year, but major league hitters punish his mistakes too regularly. He still has a shot to compete as a starter, but converting him to relief, where his fastball/slider combination could play up, could help him finally stick in the majors for good. 23 year old Vladimir Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba in 2016, and he reached AA in 2018 and posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 145/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings with Pensacola. Though he's just six feet tall, Gutierrez has very high upside with his stuff (mid 90's fastball, bat-missing slider) and control that a lot of other young pitchers struggle to put together. He has been plagued by inconsistency in his career, looking like an ace at times and like the opposite at others, but he has been getting better about bringing the same stuff and control from start to start and 2019 could be a real breakout year for him. If not, he could find himself in a similar limbo to Keury Mella down the line. 24 year old Scott Moss has moved slowly for a college pitcher coming from a major program, in this case Florida, spending 2018 at High A and posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Daytona. The 6'5" lefty doesn't have a standout pitch but uses his pitchability well, and if he can improve his command a little bit, he could sneak up as a back-end starter. Not that it matters, but Moss has been very lucky when it comes to run support and carries an impressive 31-11 record over three minor league seasons, including a 15-4 mark in 2018. I watched 22 year old Packy Naughton a lot in college at Virginia Tech, and he's interesting to say the least. He has a delivery, a funky name, and even a funky throws left/bats right profile. He dominated the Cape Cod League, the nation's premier collegiate summer league, with a 1.69 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings in 2016, but sucked in his three years at Virginia Tech from 2015-2017 (7-14, 6.13 ERA, 172/87 K/BB) even after the strong Cape performance. Admittedly, Virginia Tech's program as a whole was sub-par while he was there to say the least, and he has taken better than I expected to pro ball. In 2018, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 137/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at Class A Dayton, showing much better control than he had in college. His stuff is largely average but the quirkiness in his delivery makes it play up, and the Reds must have done something with his mechanics because he's in the strike zone much more. He's still inconsistent, though he has had quite a few more good days in pro ball than he had in college and while I saw him as a reliever back then, he might be able to crack it as a back-end starter with a little more refinement. 25 year old Jimmy Herget is a relief prospect who faired well this year by posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings at AAA Louisville, doing so with a very good fastball/slider combination that can come from multiple arm angles. Dominant for his first three pro seasons after being drafted out of USF in the sixth round, he finally had to start making adjustments in AAA, but the 6'3" righty is major league ready and should compete for a middle relief spot in 2019 with a larger role possible if he's successful. Lastly, 20 year old James Marinan came over from the Dodgers in the small Dylan Floro trade in July, and he posted a 3.35 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 50/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings in complex ball and rookie level Billings. He was a fourth round pick out of a south Florida high school in 2017 and he's mostly about his fastball at this point; he throws in the low to mid 90's and gets a lot of ground balls from a 6'5" frame, though the rest of his stuff is yet to take the step forward. That's okay considering he'll spend the entire 2019 season at 20 years old, and if just one of his slider, curveball, or changeup becomes a little sharper in full season ball, the Reds will suddenly have a potential impact pitching prospect on their hands.
Sunday, July 8, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds
First 5 rounds: Jonathan India (1-5), Lyon Richardson (2-47), Josiah Gray (CBB-72), Bren Spillane (3-82), Mike Siani (4-109), Ryan Campbell (5-139)
Also notable: Jay Schuyler (7-199), Andrew McDonald (9-259), Michael Byrne (14-409)
The Reds made some picks I liked and some I didn't, but overall they grabbed some good talent here. There's a lot of upside in this class, and they did a good job of getting a little bit of everything, taking one player from each of the four major demographic groups (high school hitter/pitcher, college hitter/pitcher) in their first five picks. Even though I don't like some of the picks, I like the overall class here and Reds fans should be happy with the haul.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (my rank: 12)
I had India ranked outside the top ten, but considering how much they saved in signing him, it's hard to fault the Reds for going under slot to sign the most productive hitter in college baseball. In 68 games, many of which were against college baseball's toughest competition in the SEC, the Florida Gator third baseman slashed .350/.497/.717 with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 56/60 strikeout to walk ratio. College pitching, even its best, clearly has nothing on him, and he even homered off of #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Right now, despite the huge power surge and relatively high 18.7% strikeout rate during his junior season, his hit tool to me looks to be ahead of his power, and I see him as likely to post high on-base percentages (he also walked in 20% of his plate appearances). He generates his power through a quick, short swing, though it didn't show up until this season (slugged .440 and .429 in first two seasons) and it didn't show up with wood bats in the Cape Cod League (.281/.397/.398, 1 HR over two years). I'm not sure if he made whatever change that gave him more power before or after the Cape, but I'm not entirely sure all that power translates to wood bats. My guess is that India ends up hitting 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages around .370, which is All Star level. He signed for just under $5.3 million, coming in just about $650,000 under slot. In his first game in the rookie level Appalachian League, he went 0-2 but walked twice.
2-47: RHP Lyon Richardson (my rank: 89)
I'm not as big a fan of this pick. Richardson is a 6'2" high school right hander from Port St. Lucie, Florida with a live arm that can dial his fastball up to 97. The arm strength is what the Reds are buying here, as it's something you often can't teach, while the rest of his game is something you can teach. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much going for the rest of his game. I couldn't find much video before the draft, but his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is just getting started, so the Reds are gambling a lot on those secondaries. His control is average, and at 6'2", he lacks some of the projection of some of his counterparts. Still, you can't teach arm strength as much as other skills, and Richardson has it. He signed for nearly $2 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and has allowed six runs in four innings with a 5/4 strikeout to walk ratio in the Appalachian League.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (my rank: 106)
Because they saved money on Gray, I don't mind this pick. He's a 6'1" righty out of DII Le Moyne College in Syracuse, but he didn't actually begin pitching until last year, his sophomore year. He was originally recruited as a light hitting shortstop, but Le Moyne liked his arm strength and struck gold. In 13 starts this year, he went 11-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio, completely overwhelming low level DII competition. He throws low to mid 90's and can easily blow it by DII hitters, and his slider is steadily improving. His command is coming together, but it's still a work in progress, and his changeup is virtually non-existent like Richardson's. He's very raw, especially for a college pitcher, but he is one of the youngest college juniors in the class and doesn't turn 21 until December, which buys him some time. He signed for $772,500, which is $65,200 below slot, and he has allowed three runs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA) on five hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts so far in the Appalachian League.
3-82: OF Bren Spillane (unranked)
I was very aware of Spillane before the draft, but chose not to include him in the rankings because I'm not his biggest fan. Like India, he put up exceptional numbers this year, but I just don't think his game translates well to pro ball. Through 50 games for Illinois, he slashed .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio against pretty good Big 10 competition. Clearly, college pitching has nothing on him, though he didn't get the chance to face much of college baseball's best (Indiana's Jonathan Stiever, #94 on my list, was probably the best arm he faced, going 1-5 with a double and a pair of walks in two games). The reason I don't think his power will play up is that a) his swing is long, and b) he doesn't have much bat speed. He'll have a tough time catching up to the high heat he'll see in the upper levels of the minors. I also see his power coming more from strength than from bat speed, and it will be tougher to muscle balls out with wood bats than with metal unless he can barrel up fastballs consistently and use their velocity. Despite being 6'5" and big, he actually can run a little, meaning he won't be a liability in a corner outfield spot. He signed for $597,500, which is $118,500 below slot, and he is slashing .261/.397/.500 with a pair of home runs and a 25/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games in the rookie level Pioneer League.
4-109: OF Mike Siani (my rank: 34)
Obviously, this is a great pick for the Reds. He's universally regarded as at least a second or third round talent, but fell to the fourth round due to signability, and the Reds were able to grab him for a large over slot bonus. Personally, I'm higher than most on him, as you can tell by the ranking. He's a high school outfielder from Philadelphia, one who obviously doesn't get the opportunity to practice year round like his southern counterparts. He's mostly projection at this point, though at 6'1" and sturdily built, it's more skill projection than physical projection. Siani's main value is on defense, as he can stick in center field with well above average arm strength and range. He's more of a project on offense, where he is just an average hitter, but I think he can improve. He gets the bat on the ball enough, and he has done a good job in adding loft to his swing, so I think once he puts it together and can start barreling the ball up and turning on pitches, he could be a 15-20 homer bat with a high enough on-base percentage to give him the chance to steal 20 bases per season. That doesn't sound extremely exciting as a ceiling, but when you combine that with great defense, it's a very valuable player any team would like to have. He signed for $2 million, which was nearly $1.5 million above slot, and he has two singles in seven at bats with one strikeout in his first two games in the Appalachian League.
9-259: RHP Andrew McDonald (unranked)
McDonald was a fifth year senior at Virginia Tech, one who I got to watch plenty over the years. He's a 6'6" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a pretty good breaking ball, though inconsistency in both his velocity and his command have kept him from posting good numbers at Tech. This past year was his best as a Hokie, as he went 1-8 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings. If pro coaching can help him get his delivery under control, as he often struggled to repeat it in Blacksburg, he could even start at the major league level, but he will take a lot of work and turns 24 over the offseason. Essentially, if he responds to mechanical changes quickly, he's a good pick, but if he takes time to get everything together, there isn't a lot of time on his prospect clock. Interestingly, the Reds also spent their 9th round pick on a Virginia Tech pitcher last year with lefty Packy Naughton, though he was the 257th pick while McDonald was 259th. McDonald signed for $7,500, which is $155,100 below slot. Through six appearances in the Pioneer League, he has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings (7.36 ERA) on eight hits, eight walks, and nine strikeouts.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Campbell was a senior out of the University of Illinois-Chicago, finishing the year 7-3 with a 1.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. The 6'3" righty got his outs by commanding his pitches and inducing weak contact, and he'll need to continue to have sharp command to make it as a starter in the minor league system. 7th rounder Jay Schuyler was the University of San Diego's catcher, slashing .342/.414/.493 with seven home runs and a 30/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 games. I haven't heard anything about his defense but he has an advanced approach at the plate and puts the ball in play regularly, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while posting an OPS over .900. 14th rounder Michael Byrne is a great day three find, and while he required the Reds to spend $132,500 against their bonus pool, he could really help them soon. Byrne was the relief ace for Florida, posting a 1.61 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 64/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, often going more than one inning in relief. He was also excellent on the Cape (0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB), and he's a guy who should move quickly through the minors. Byrne is a 6'2" righty who throws his fastball around 90, which is very slow for a supposedly elite reliever, but he gets away with it due to its movement, deception, and his command of it. When it's moving and he places it right where he wants to around the zone, it's tough to square up, but his command will have to remain tight if he wants to make it to the majors.
Also notable: Jay Schuyler (7-199), Andrew McDonald (9-259), Michael Byrne (14-409)
The Reds made some picks I liked and some I didn't, but overall they grabbed some good talent here. There's a lot of upside in this class, and they did a good job of getting a little bit of everything, taking one player from each of the four major demographic groups (high school hitter/pitcher, college hitter/pitcher) in their first five picks. Even though I don't like some of the picks, I like the overall class here and Reds fans should be happy with the haul.
1-5: 3B Jonathan India (my rank: 12)
I had India ranked outside the top ten, but considering how much they saved in signing him, it's hard to fault the Reds for going under slot to sign the most productive hitter in college baseball. In 68 games, many of which were against college baseball's toughest competition in the SEC, the Florida Gator third baseman slashed .350/.497/.717 with 21 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 56/60 strikeout to walk ratio. College pitching, even its best, clearly has nothing on him, and he even homered off of #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Right now, despite the huge power surge and relatively high 18.7% strikeout rate during his junior season, his hit tool to me looks to be ahead of his power, and I see him as likely to post high on-base percentages (he also walked in 20% of his plate appearances). He generates his power through a quick, short swing, though it didn't show up until this season (slugged .440 and .429 in first two seasons) and it didn't show up with wood bats in the Cape Cod League (.281/.397/.398, 1 HR over two years). I'm not sure if he made whatever change that gave him more power before or after the Cape, but I'm not entirely sure all that power translates to wood bats. My guess is that India ends up hitting 20 home runs per year with on-base percentages around .370, which is All Star level. He signed for just under $5.3 million, coming in just about $650,000 under slot. In his first game in the rookie level Appalachian League, he went 0-2 but walked twice.
2-47: RHP Lyon Richardson (my rank: 89)
I'm not as big a fan of this pick. Richardson is a 6'2" high school right hander from Port St. Lucie, Florida with a live arm that can dial his fastball up to 97. The arm strength is what the Reds are buying here, as it's something you often can't teach, while the rest of his game is something you can teach. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much going for the rest of his game. I couldn't find much video before the draft, but his slider is a work in progress and his changeup is just getting started, so the Reds are gambling a lot on those secondaries. His control is average, and at 6'2", he lacks some of the projection of some of his counterparts. Still, you can't teach arm strength as much as other skills, and Richardson has it. He signed for nearly $2 million, nearly $500,000 over slot, and has allowed six runs in four innings with a 5/4 strikeout to walk ratio in the Appalachian League.
CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (my rank: 106)
Because they saved money on Gray, I don't mind this pick. He's a 6'1" righty out of DII Le Moyne College in Syracuse, but he didn't actually begin pitching until last year, his sophomore year. He was originally recruited as a light hitting shortstop, but Le Moyne liked his arm strength and struck gold. In 13 starts this year, he went 11-0 with a 1.25 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a 105/20 strikeout to walk ratio, completely overwhelming low level DII competition. He throws low to mid 90's and can easily blow it by DII hitters, and his slider is steadily improving. His command is coming together, but it's still a work in progress, and his changeup is virtually non-existent like Richardson's. He's very raw, especially for a college pitcher, but he is one of the youngest college juniors in the class and doesn't turn 21 until December, which buys him some time. He signed for $772,500, which is $65,200 below slot, and he has allowed three runs in 11 innings (2.45 ERA) on five hits, two walks, and 11 strikeouts so far in the Appalachian League.
3-82: OF Bren Spillane (unranked)
I was very aware of Spillane before the draft, but chose not to include him in the rankings because I'm not his biggest fan. Like India, he put up exceptional numbers this year, but I just don't think his game translates well to pro ball. Through 50 games for Illinois, he slashed .389/.498/.903 with 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio against pretty good Big 10 competition. Clearly, college pitching has nothing on him, though he didn't get the chance to face much of college baseball's best (Indiana's Jonathan Stiever, #94 on my list, was probably the best arm he faced, going 1-5 with a double and a pair of walks in two games). The reason I don't think his power will play up is that a) his swing is long, and b) he doesn't have much bat speed. He'll have a tough time catching up to the high heat he'll see in the upper levels of the minors. I also see his power coming more from strength than from bat speed, and it will be tougher to muscle balls out with wood bats than with metal unless he can barrel up fastballs consistently and use their velocity. Despite being 6'5" and big, he actually can run a little, meaning he won't be a liability in a corner outfield spot. He signed for $597,500, which is $118,500 below slot, and he is slashing .261/.397/.500 with a pair of home runs and a 25/10 strikeout to walk ratio through 16 games in the rookie level Pioneer League.
4-109: OF Mike Siani (my rank: 34)
Obviously, this is a great pick for the Reds. He's universally regarded as at least a second or third round talent, but fell to the fourth round due to signability, and the Reds were able to grab him for a large over slot bonus. Personally, I'm higher than most on him, as you can tell by the ranking. He's a high school outfielder from Philadelphia, one who obviously doesn't get the opportunity to practice year round like his southern counterparts. He's mostly projection at this point, though at 6'1" and sturdily built, it's more skill projection than physical projection. Siani's main value is on defense, as he can stick in center field with well above average arm strength and range. He's more of a project on offense, where he is just an average hitter, but I think he can improve. He gets the bat on the ball enough, and he has done a good job in adding loft to his swing, so I think once he puts it together and can start barreling the ball up and turning on pitches, he could be a 15-20 homer bat with a high enough on-base percentage to give him the chance to steal 20 bases per season. That doesn't sound extremely exciting as a ceiling, but when you combine that with great defense, it's a very valuable player any team would like to have. He signed for $2 million, which was nearly $1.5 million above slot, and he has two singles in seven at bats with one strikeout in his first two games in the Appalachian League.
9-259: RHP Andrew McDonald (unranked)
McDonald was a fifth year senior at Virginia Tech, one who I got to watch plenty over the years. He's a 6'6" right hander with a low 90's fastball and a pretty good breaking ball, though inconsistency in both his velocity and his command have kept him from posting good numbers at Tech. This past year was his best as a Hokie, as he went 1-8 with a 4.45 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 67/27 strikeout to walk ratio in 54.2 innings. If pro coaching can help him get his delivery under control, as he often struggled to repeat it in Blacksburg, he could even start at the major league level, but he will take a lot of work and turns 24 over the offseason. Essentially, if he responds to mechanical changes quickly, he's a good pick, but if he takes time to get everything together, there isn't a lot of time on his prospect clock. Interestingly, the Reds also spent their 9th round pick on a Virginia Tech pitcher last year with lefty Packy Naughton, though he was the 257th pick while McDonald was 259th. McDonald signed for $7,500, which is $155,100 below slot. Through six appearances in the Pioneer League, he has allowed eight runs (six earned) in 7.1 innings (7.36 ERA) on eight hits, eight walks, and nine strikeouts.
Others: 5th rounder Ryan Campbell was a senior out of the University of Illinois-Chicago, finishing the year 7-3 with a 1.53 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 68/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings. The 6'3" righty got his outs by commanding his pitches and inducing weak contact, and he'll need to continue to have sharp command to make it as a starter in the minor league system. 7th rounder Jay Schuyler was the University of San Diego's catcher, slashing .342/.414/.493 with seven home runs and a 30/24 strikeout to walk ratio in 55 games. I haven't heard anything about his defense but he has an advanced approach at the plate and puts the ball in play regularly, striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances while posting an OPS over .900. 14th rounder Michael Byrne is a great day three find, and while he required the Reds to spend $132,500 against their bonus pool, he could really help them soon. Byrne was the relief ace for Florida, posting a 1.61 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 64/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 innings, often going more than one inning in relief. He was also excellent on the Cape (0.69 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 13/4 K/BB), and he's a guy who should move quickly through the minors. Byrne is a 6'2" righty who throws his fastball around 90, which is very slow for a supposedly elite reliever, but he gets away with it due to its movement, deception, and his command of it. When it's moving and he places it right where he wants to around the zone, it's tough to square up, but his command will have to remain tight if he wants to make it to the majors.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 15 Outfielders
There are no superstars in this year's outfield class, but there is good depth, especially if you are looking for guys who can stay in center field long term. Being a center fielder is much like being a shortstop or second baseman in that pressure is taken off the bat, and on the flip side, being a left fielder means that all of the pressure is on the bat, nearly as much as if a player was a first baseman.
1. Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
Swaggerty opened eyes with a big sophomore season at South Alabama (10 HR, .361/.487/.567), and while his batting average dropped in 2018, he walked a lot more, added more power, and pushed himself possibly into the top ten picks. Over 57 games, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .296/.455/.526 with an excellent 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio. He generates more power than you would think for a 5'11" guy, especially with his speed. That speed plays on both sides of the ball, as he projects to stay in center field long term, taking some pressure off his bat. Add in that he's young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August, and you have a guy with power, patience, and speed who could impact the game in a lot of ways.
2. Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
There was buzz that the Tigers could select Kelenic first overall for an under slot deal for a while, but that has faded and he looks to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, with the top ten still being a possibility. He may be the most advanced high school hitter available, one who could slot into full season ball soon and who could work his way to the majors fairly quickly. While he doesn't have a plus tool, he does everything well, showing a very advanced approach at the plate as well as some power, speed, and good defense. If he can stay in center field, he could be a left handed Adam Eaton, but even if he slides to a corner, he'll still be an impactful player for a long time. He is a little old for the class, turning 19 in July, but he's so advanced as a hitter that that shouldn't be a problem. He's committed to Louisville.
3. Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
If Kelenic is the unspectacular, steady player, Scott is the exciting wild card. The Tampa native is lanky at 6'4" with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and he does everything well. While his approach is not as advanced as Kelenic's, he still has a good feel for the barrel and could grow into more power. He's extremely fast and has a cannon arm, meaning he could be an above average defender in center field, so he can impact the game on both ends of the ball. He is a little bit of a bust risk, as his swing is awkward and his power hasn't developed yet, but the swing works for him and it's not too dissimilar to former teammate and Astros first round pick Kyle Tucker's. He won't make it out of the first round and has a good shot at going in the top half, and he's committed to Florida.
4. Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
Larnach's excellent performance this spring has had him shooting up draft boards, as he has slashed .330/.452/.632 with 17 home runs to actually overshadow possible top five pick Nick Madrigal in the Oregon State lineup at times. That power is real, as he generates elite exit velocities off the bat, so it should play up with wood bats. He does strike out a lot, but he also walks a lot, showing a power/patience combination that should carry him all the way to the majors. He also swung well in the Cape Cod League for two years, and he's overall trending hard in the right direction. He could hit his way to the majors quickly. On defense though, he's mediocre and will likely have to play left field, where he has enough bat to carry him. He'll likely come off the board before Scott.
5. Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
Alec Bohm's teammate in Wichita is a first round prospect as well, albeit not as strong of one. He looked like a first round lock after a very good summer in the Cape Cod League (3 HR, .310/.391/.401) in which he was universally praised by coaches for his work ethic and leadership as well as his performance, but a pedestrian junior season (9 HR, .309/.446/.475) has knocked him at least to the back half of the first round if not out of it. I'm still high on him and think he'll be an impact player in time, as he has an explosive swing from a 6'4" frame that will help his power play up. He also walks a lot, and if he can improve his barrel control, he should be able to put it all together and be a complete hitter. He's athletic for his size and should be able to stay in the outfield, but he may have to move to first base if he slows down.
6. Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
Jake McCarthy, whose brother Joe is currently a prospect in the Rays system, had a very good sophomore year (5 HR, .338/.425/.506, 27 SB) and was ready to build on it in 2018 until a broken wrist cut a large chunk out of his season. I still like him as a prospect, as he has a clean, explosive swing that could generate more power if he adds some loft to go along with enough speed to stay in center field. The wrist injury makes him a bit of a wild card, and he may end up as a tweener that doesn't hit quite enough to break past AAA, but I buy the upside and think he could be an every day center fielder. He's also young for a college junior, and he's unlikely to go in the first round but should be drafted shortly afterwards.
7. Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
Adams is a fast rising prospect who could make this ranking look too conservative when it is all said and done. He wasn't well known heading into the season, but a huge performance at the National High School Invitational in March and continued good play afterwards have elevated him to a likely first round prospect. He's a super-athlete who is committed to North Carolina not just for baseball but for football as well, showcasing top of the scale speed that should help him stay in center field no matter how his arm and glove progress. That takes pressure off his bat, which is behind his glove but could generate power and contact when it's all said and done. His swing is long and smooth, and once he gives up football, it should get shorter and more consistent, though he does do a good job of getting the barrel into the zone early. He's ranked here but will go higher than McCarthy, probably higher than Jenista, and possibly in the same range as Scott and Larnach at best, though signability will be an issue no matter where he is drafted.
8. Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
The Philadelphia area doesn't have much going on in terms of draft prospects, but Siani is right there in the national conversation. He is fast enough and has enough arm strength to not only stay in center field, but be very good there, taking some pressure off his bat. He'll need that pressure off, because even though he has some loft in his swing and the wheels to turn doubles into triples, he has struggled to find the barrel and will take some time to develop. If it all breaks right, I honestly see some Adam Haseley in him, and he's committed to Virginia like Haseley. He's a little old for a high school senior, turning 19 in July, and is probably a second round pick.
9. Griffin Conine (Duke)
Jeff Conine's son had a huge sophomore season (13 HR, .298/.425/.546) and then hit extremely well in the Cape Cod League (9 HR, .329/.406/.537), leading to projections that he could hit his way into the top ten picks with a good junior season. That didn't happen, as he sold out for power, his swing got long, and he struck out way too much, but he began to right the ship as the season went on and brings 15 home runs and a respectable .265/.390/.559 line into this writing. He strikes out a ton, 27.3% of the time, and that alone could be his downfall in pro ball. However, if he cleans up his approach with pro coaching, he has a good shot at being a power hitting right fielder in the middle of a major league order. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in July, and should go somewhere in the second round.
10. Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
Walker is an interesting prospect for more reasons than just his cool name, as he has hit better than ever during his junior year at Oklahoma (13 HR, .352/.441/.606), but hasn't seen his draft stock move up all that much. He plays the game hard and plays it smart, getting the most out of his skill set despite a relative lack of loud tools, which has led to plenty of success for the Sooners, but given that description, I'd like to see a better strikeout to walk ratio than 48/31 if I'm going to take him in the first round, as some teams have shown interest in doing. He strikes me as a bit of a tweener, a player who can't quite field enough to stay in center field but who doesn't quite hit enough for left field, so he could end up a fourth outfielder, but he also plays the game in such a way that he could surprise. He is a little bit old for his class though, turning 22 in July (quite a few July birthdays in this part of the rankings, I know). He could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the back of the second round, and likely ahead of Conine and Siani.
11. Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
While I consider Walker a slightly better prospect, his teammate Kyler Murray is perhaps the most interesting man in the draft. A potential first round pick as a Dallas area high schooler, he was instead busy leading the famous Allen High School football program as one of the top quarterback recruits in the country to Texas A&M. Things didn't work out there and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he backed up first overall pick Baker Mayfield in Norman. Meanwhile, this paragraph is supposed to be about baseball, and I'll get to that. He had to sit out his freshman baseball season at Oklahoma due to transfer rules and slashed a miserable .122/.317/.122 as a sophomore, leading to the baseball world all but forgetting about him, but he's back out of nowhere this year. In 51 games, he has ten home runs and is slashing .296/.398/.556 with a respectable 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio given the circumstances, showing plenty of speed and the athleticism you'd expect from a two sport star. His bat is coming along nicely as well, and once (if ever) he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to cut down that strikeout rate and bump up the walk rate. There is a lot of potential to unlock here, and to top it off, he is young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August. He has pushed himself into the first round conversation, but he will be an extremely tough sign given that he has the opportunity to take over for Mayfield as the starting quarterback of the famous University of Oklahoma offense next fall.
12. Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
Schnell is a high ceiling outfielder from Indianapolis who does a little bit of everything. He can run and stay in center field, taking pressure of his bat, and he has added power this spring with big bat speed and a whippy bat path. He is fairly raw at the plate, and pro coaching will need to clean up that swing, but as I said, the good defense buys him slack. He looks to go somewhere in the second round and is committed to Louisville, like Kelenic.
13. Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
Thomas lacks any real standout tool but plays the game well and has a higher floor than most high school hitters. His feel to hit and defensive ability are both advanced, and if he can improve his arm strength, he'll be a good center fielder. That takes some pressure off his bat, which might need it because he lacks power and could end up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't start driving the ball with more authority. He's committed to TCU and could go as early as the end of the first round.
14. Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
Hannah may only be 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in him and has shown consistent gap power this spring, slashing .363/.449/.556 with six home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, and an even 38/38 strikeout to walk ratio for the Patriots. He's fast, has shown a great feel for the barrel, and should stick in center field. If he can't cut it as a leadoff guy, he'll make a solid fourth outfielder, and should go somewhere in the second or third round.
15. Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
The younger brother of Pirates rookie star Austin Meadows, Parker isn't quite the same prospect but has high upside. His left handed swing, combined with his lean 6'4" frame, is built for knocking balls out of the park, but his feel for the barrel is subpar and will need to improve if he wants to go anywhere. With his speed and arm strength, he should be able to stick in center field, buying the contact some time to come along. He's committed to Clemson, where he could emerge as a first round pick in three years. If he chooses to sign, he's a second or third round talent.
Others: Kyle Isbel (UNLV), Tristan Pompey (Kentucky), Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS), Zach Watson (Louisiana State), Ryder Green (Karns HS, TN), Nick Decker (Seneca HS, NJ)
1. Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
Swaggerty opened eyes with a big sophomore season at South Alabama (10 HR, .361/.487/.567), and while his batting average dropped in 2018, he walked a lot more, added more power, and pushed himself possibly into the top ten picks. Over 57 games, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .296/.455/.526 with an excellent 38/54 strikeout to walk ratio. He generates more power than you would think for a 5'11" guy, especially with his speed. That speed plays on both sides of the ball, as he projects to stay in center field long term, taking some pressure off his bat. Add in that he's young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August, and you have a guy with power, patience, and speed who could impact the game in a lot of ways.
2. Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI)
There was buzz that the Tigers could select Kelenic first overall for an under slot deal for a while, but that has faded and he looks to go somewhere in the middle of the first round, with the top ten still being a possibility. He may be the most advanced high school hitter available, one who could slot into full season ball soon and who could work his way to the majors fairly quickly. While he doesn't have a plus tool, he does everything well, showing a very advanced approach at the plate as well as some power, speed, and good defense. If he can stay in center field, he could be a left handed Adam Eaton, but even if he slides to a corner, he'll still be an impactful player for a long time. He is a little old for the class, turning 19 in July, but he's so advanced as a hitter that that shouldn't be a problem. He's committed to Louisville.
3. Connor Scott (Plant HS, FL)
If Kelenic is the unspectacular, steady player, Scott is the exciting wild card. The Tampa native is lanky at 6'4" with plenty of room to grow into his frame, and he does everything well. While his approach is not as advanced as Kelenic's, he still has a good feel for the barrel and could grow into more power. He's extremely fast and has a cannon arm, meaning he could be an above average defender in center field, so he can impact the game on both ends of the ball. He is a little bit of a bust risk, as his swing is awkward and his power hasn't developed yet, but the swing works for him and it's not too dissimilar to former teammate and Astros first round pick Kyle Tucker's. He won't make it out of the first round and has a good shot at going in the top half, and he's committed to Florida.
4. Trevor Larnach (Oregon State)
Larnach's excellent performance this spring has had him shooting up draft boards, as he has slashed .330/.452/.632 with 17 home runs to actually overshadow possible top five pick Nick Madrigal in the Oregon State lineup at times. That power is real, as he generates elite exit velocities off the bat, so it should play up with wood bats. He does strike out a lot, but he also walks a lot, showing a power/patience combination that should carry him all the way to the majors. He also swung well in the Cape Cod League for two years, and he's overall trending hard in the right direction. He could hit his way to the majors quickly. On defense though, he's mediocre and will likely have to play left field, where he has enough bat to carry him. He'll likely come off the board before Scott.
5. Greyson Jenista (Wichita State)
Alec Bohm's teammate in Wichita is a first round prospect as well, albeit not as strong of one. He looked like a first round lock after a very good summer in the Cape Cod League (3 HR, .310/.391/.401) in which he was universally praised by coaches for his work ethic and leadership as well as his performance, but a pedestrian junior season (9 HR, .309/.446/.475) has knocked him at least to the back half of the first round if not out of it. I'm still high on him and think he'll be an impact player in time, as he has an explosive swing from a 6'4" frame that will help his power play up. He also walks a lot, and if he can improve his barrel control, he should be able to put it all together and be a complete hitter. He's athletic for his size and should be able to stay in the outfield, but he may have to move to first base if he slows down.
6. Jake McCarthy (Virginia)
Jake McCarthy, whose brother Joe is currently a prospect in the Rays system, had a very good sophomore year (5 HR, .338/.425/.506, 27 SB) and was ready to build on it in 2018 until a broken wrist cut a large chunk out of his season. I still like him as a prospect, as he has a clean, explosive swing that could generate more power if he adds some loft to go along with enough speed to stay in center field. The wrist injury makes him a bit of a wild card, and he may end up as a tweener that doesn't hit quite enough to break past AAA, but I buy the upside and think he could be an every day center fielder. He's also young for a college junior, and he's unlikely to go in the first round but should be drafted shortly afterwards.
7. Jordyn Adams (Green Hope HS, NC)
Adams is a fast rising prospect who could make this ranking look too conservative when it is all said and done. He wasn't well known heading into the season, but a huge performance at the National High School Invitational in March and continued good play afterwards have elevated him to a likely first round prospect. He's a super-athlete who is committed to North Carolina not just for baseball but for football as well, showcasing top of the scale speed that should help him stay in center field no matter how his arm and glove progress. That takes pressure off his bat, which is behind his glove but could generate power and contact when it's all said and done. His swing is long and smooth, and once he gives up football, it should get shorter and more consistent, though he does do a good job of getting the barrel into the zone early. He's ranked here but will go higher than McCarthy, probably higher than Jenista, and possibly in the same range as Scott and Larnach at best, though signability will be an issue no matter where he is drafted.
8. Mike Siani (Penn Charter HS, PA)
The Philadelphia area doesn't have much going on in terms of draft prospects, but Siani is right there in the national conversation. He is fast enough and has enough arm strength to not only stay in center field, but be very good there, taking some pressure off his bat. He'll need that pressure off, because even though he has some loft in his swing and the wheels to turn doubles into triples, he has struggled to find the barrel and will take some time to develop. If it all breaks right, I honestly see some Adam Haseley in him, and he's committed to Virginia like Haseley. He's a little old for a high school senior, turning 19 in July, and is probably a second round pick.
9. Griffin Conine (Duke)
Jeff Conine's son had a huge sophomore season (13 HR, .298/.425/.546) and then hit extremely well in the Cape Cod League (9 HR, .329/.406/.537), leading to projections that he could hit his way into the top ten picks with a good junior season. That didn't happen, as he sold out for power, his swing got long, and he struck out way too much, but he began to right the ship as the season went on and brings 15 home runs and a respectable .265/.390/.559 line into this writing. He strikes out a ton, 27.3% of the time, and that alone could be his downfall in pro ball. However, if he cleans up his approach with pro coaching, he has a good shot at being a power hitting right fielder in the middle of a major league order. He's also young for a college junior, turning 21 in July, and should go somewhere in the second round.
10. Steele Walker (Oklahoma)
Walker is an interesting prospect for more reasons than just his cool name, as he has hit better than ever during his junior year at Oklahoma (13 HR, .352/.441/.606), but hasn't seen his draft stock move up all that much. He plays the game hard and plays it smart, getting the most out of his skill set despite a relative lack of loud tools, which has led to plenty of success for the Sooners, but given that description, I'd like to see a better strikeout to walk ratio than 48/31 if I'm going to take him in the first round, as some teams have shown interest in doing. He strikes me as a bit of a tweener, a player who can't quite field enough to stay in center field but who doesn't quite hit enough for left field, so he could end up a fourth outfielder, but he also plays the game in such a way that he could surprise. He is a little bit old for his class though, turning 22 in July (quite a few July birthdays in this part of the rankings, I know). He could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the back of the second round, and likely ahead of Conine and Siani.
11. Kyler Murray (Oklahoma)
While I consider Walker a slightly better prospect, his teammate Kyler Murray is perhaps the most interesting man in the draft. A potential first round pick as a Dallas area high schooler, he was instead busy leading the famous Allen High School football program as one of the top quarterback recruits in the country to Texas A&M. Things didn't work out there and he transferred to Oklahoma, where he backed up first overall pick Baker Mayfield in Norman. Meanwhile, this paragraph is supposed to be about baseball, and I'll get to that. He had to sit out his freshman baseball season at Oklahoma due to transfer rules and slashed a miserable .122/.317/.122 as a sophomore, leading to the baseball world all but forgetting about him, but he's back out of nowhere this year. In 51 games, he has ten home runs and is slashing .296/.398/.556 with a respectable 56/28 strikeout to walk ratio given the circumstances, showing plenty of speed and the athleticism you'd expect from a two sport star. His bat is coming along nicely as well, and once (if ever) he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to cut down that strikeout rate and bump up the walk rate. There is a lot of potential to unlock here, and to top it off, he is young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until August. He has pushed himself into the first round conversation, but he will be an extremely tough sign given that he has the opportunity to take over for Mayfield as the starting quarterback of the famous University of Oklahoma offense next fall.
12. Nick Schnell (Roncalli HS, IN)
Schnell is a high ceiling outfielder from Indianapolis who does a little bit of everything. He can run and stay in center field, taking pressure of his bat, and he has added power this spring with big bat speed and a whippy bat path. He is fairly raw at the plate, and pro coaching will need to clean up that swing, but as I said, the good defense buys him slack. He looks to go somewhere in the second round and is committed to Louisville, like Kelenic.
13. Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel HS, IL)
Thomas lacks any real standout tool but plays the game well and has a higher floor than most high school hitters. His feel to hit and defensive ability are both advanced, and if he can improve his arm strength, he'll be a good center fielder. That takes some pressure off his bat, which might need it because he lacks power and could end up a fourth outfielder if he doesn't start driving the ball with more authority. He's committed to TCU and could go as early as the end of the first round.
14. Jameson Hannah (Dallas Baptist)
Hannah may only be 5'9", but he has a lot of Denard Span in him and has shown consistent gap power this spring, slashing .363/.449/.556 with six home runs, 24 doubles, three triples, and an even 38/38 strikeout to walk ratio for the Patriots. He's fast, has shown a great feel for the barrel, and should stick in center field. If he can't cut it as a leadoff guy, he'll make a solid fourth outfielder, and should go somewhere in the second or third round.
15. Parker Meadows (Grayson HS, GA)
The younger brother of Pirates rookie star Austin Meadows, Parker isn't quite the same prospect but has high upside. His left handed swing, combined with his lean 6'4" frame, is built for knocking balls out of the park, but his feel for the barrel is subpar and will need to improve if he wants to go anywhere. With his speed and arm strength, he should be able to stick in center field, buying the contact some time to come along. He's committed to Clemson, where he could emerge as a first round pick in three years. If he chooses to sign, he's a second or third round talent.
Others: Kyle Isbel (UNLV), Tristan Pompey (Kentucky), Joe Gray Jr. (Hattiesburg HS, MS), Zach Watson (Louisiana State), Ryder Green (Karns HS, TN), Nick Decker (Seneca HS, NJ)
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