Reviewing the Cincinnati Reds Farm System

The Reds don't have the deepest farm system in the world, but their top five rivals some of the best in the game, giving them a very good chance at having two star, homegrown infielders (Nick Senzel and Jonathan India), a star, homegrown outfielder (Taylor Trammell), and two star, home grown pitchers (Hunter Greene and Tony Santillan). Beyond those five, there aren't many impact prospects, with most of the rest of the better prospects being lower down in the minors as recent draftees or signees, especially with Shed Long gone to the Mariners. By the time you read this, the list might look very different with a potential J.T. Realmuto trade in the works as I write this.

Affiliates: AAA Louisville Bats, AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos*, High A Daytona Tortugas, Class A Dayton Dragons, rookie level Billings Mustangs and Greeneville Reds, complex level GCL and DSL Reds
*AA affiliate will move from Pensacola, FL to Chattanooga, TN in 2019

The Big Five: 3B Nick Senzel, OF Taylor Trammell, 3B Jonathan India, RHP Tony Santillan, and RHP Hunter Greene
The Reds have one of the best top fives in baseball, and these guys alone make the system one of the game's best. We'll start with 23 year old Nick Senzel, a former second overall pick (2016) out of Tennessee who slashed .310/.378/.509 with six home runs, eight stolen bases, and a 39/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at AAA Louisville this year, though vertigo and a finger injury limited his time on the field. He's hoping to be fully healthy in 2019, where he'll have a chance to crack the major league roster with his broad skill set; he makes consistent hard contact, shows some power, and plays very good defense at third base. He's currently blocked by Eugenio Suarez at third base and by Scooter Gennett at second, but with a bat (and glove) like his, the Reds will find a place to put him. Senzel is not too dissimilar to Jose Ramirez as a player (though he's a little bigger and can't switch hit) and if everything works out, he could have a similar career in Cincinnati as a best-case scenario. A little lower down is 21 year old and fellow 2016 draftee (competitive balance round, 35th overall) Taylor Trammell, who slashed .277/.375/.406 with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 105/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Daytona. He is a very hard-working player who shows a great feel for the barrel and is beginning to grow into some power, giving him the chance to be an impact bat who can also steal plenty of bases. Defensively, he's closer to average in the outfield than you would expect given his profile, but he's young and the Reds have high hopes that he continues to improve his game to the point where he becomes a long-term starting center or left fielder with 20-20 ability. 22 year old Jonathan India was just drafted fifth overall in 2018 following a monster junior season at Florida (21 HR, .350/.497/.717), which he then followed up with a productive pro debut where he slashed .240/.380/.433 with six home runs and a 44/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games between rookie affiliates Billings and Greeneville as well as Class A Dayton. He's currently hit over power and I think he'll stay that way, but with solid infield defense, he should have no problem remaining a high level prospect even if the power doesn't reach better than average. I'm not as high on India as some evaluators, but he's still an exciting prospect who projects to post high on-base percentages and double digit home run totals while holding down a starting infield spot in the majors. 21 year old Tony Santillan was actually a 2015 draftee (second round, 49th overall) out of a central Texas high school, and he posted a 3.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 134/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149 innings at Daytona and AA Pensacola in 2018 to really establish himself as an impact pitching prospect. He easily sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider and changeup, and when you combine that stuff with his pretty good command, he's a well rounded prospect with a #2 starter ceiling and with less risk than many high-upside guys. Further honing in his control will help him reach that ceiling, where he could stick in the Reds rotation for a long time, but even as-is he could probably cut it as a back-end guy. Lastly, we have 19 year old Hunter Greene, the fireballing right hander who was taken second overall out of high school in southern California in 2017. Greene had mixed results in his full season debut this year, posting a 4.48 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and an 89/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 68.1 innings at Class A Dayton. The first thing that jumps out with Greene is his fastball, which sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103. I saw him pitch at the All Star Futures Game in Washington this past summer, and let me tell you, even from the right field bleachers I could tell that his fastball was simply next-level. His slider is coming along and for such a young player (he won't even turn 20 until August) with such elite velocity, his command is actually pretty good. The major drawback for Greene is injury risk, as is always the case with pitchers who throw so hard, and his elbow strain that caused him to miss some time in 2018 isn't easing anyone's minds. He's said to be fully healthy at this point, so we should all be crossing our fingers that he stays that way because frankly, he's simply fun to watch. Even if durability concerns or slower-than-expected development of his offspeeds force him from the rotation, he has closer upside out of the bullpen.

Outfield Group: OF TJ Friedl, OF Jose Siri, OF Stuart Fairchild, OF Michael Beltre, OF Mariel Bautista, and OF Mike Siani
Arguably the deepest part of the Cincinnati farm system is the outfield, where Taylor Trammell leads a large group of talented players looking to break through in the future. Trammell aside, the most advanced prospect is 23 year old TJ Friedl, who never registered for the 2016 draft because he (and somehow, MLB's thirty clubs) did not realize he was eligible. The Reds won a bidding war and gave him the largest signing bonus ever for an un-drafted free agent at $735,000, and he hit the ground running. In 2018, he slashed .284/.381/.384 with five home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 100/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games for High A Daytona and AA Pensacola, showing great on-base ability and speed along the way. At just 5'10", he lacks much present power and is unlikely to develop much down the line, but with the aforementioned speed and high on-base percentages, he shouldn't need it to reach the majors. That lack of power does, however, make him less likely to become a full-time starter in the majors, but there is still a chance if he hits enough. His defense is fairly average despite his speed, so it neither hurts nor helps his case. 23 year old Jose Siri is a raw, toolsy player who slashed .239/.294/.449 with 13 home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 123/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 96 games between Daytona and Pensacola, which was a step back from his big 2017 in Class A (24 HR, 46 SB, .293/.341/.530). He has that power/speed combination that scouts love, and his cannon arm only helps his case as an excellent baseball athlete. However, he struggles to get to that power in games, leaving evaluators wondering if he will ever hit enough to hold down a starting spot in the majors. His aggressive approach limits his walks, and his swing and miss tendencies caught up to him in High A and AA this year. He needs more seasoning in the minors, but he still has a very high ceiling if he can make everything click, because power hitters who can nail runners at the plate with great throws from center field can naturally contribute to their teams in a lot of ways. He just has to improve his approach and pitch recognition. Behind Friedl and Siri is 22 year old Stuart Fairchild, a former second round pick (38th overall) out of Wake Forest in 2017 who slashed .264/.344/.407 with nine home runs, 23 stolen bases, and a 128/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Class A Dayton and Daytona. He doesn't have the prettiest swing in the world but he takes an advanced approach to the plate and makes good contact, giving him high on-base percentages. He's also fast and covers plenty of ground in the outfield, taking some pressure off the bat, but I wasn't a huge fan on draft day and that hasn't changed. He seems like a fourth outfielder to me and I would call Friedl the better prospect, though he can change that by cutting his strikeout rate in 2019. 23 year old Michael Beltre has moved slowly through the system, and he spent 2018 slashing .278/.397/.402 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and an 85/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 games at Dayton and Daytona. He has an extremely advanced approach at the plate, which helped him adjust well to A ball and should help him adjust to AA in 2019, though the bat itself lacks much punch aside from some gap power. His speed and advanced approach buy the bat time, but he's unlikely to end up more than a fourth outfielder if something big doesn't change with the bat. 21 year old Mariel Bautista, like Beltre, has moved slowly, and he slashed .330/.386/.541 with eight home runs, 16 stolen bases, and a 29/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games at rookie level Billings. The numbers were fantastic, but it's important to remember that he was 20 years old facing mostly teenage or just-out-of-college competition, and his transition to full season ball, especially above Class A, will be important in accurately evaluating him. In rookie ball, he showed power, speed, and a great ability to avoid strikeouts, and if he keeps that up as he moves through the minors, he'll be a legitimate prospect. For now, we're more in wait-and-see mode. Lastly, 19 year old Mike Siani was just drafted in the fourth round of the 2018 draft out of high school in Philadelphia, and he had a successful debut by slashing .288/.351/.386 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 35/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games with rookie level Greeneville. On draft day, he was more well known for his great defense than his bat, which needed refinement, but the successful run through Appalachian League pitching shows that the bat might be more advanced than initially expected. I actually think that some power will come too, which will make him a complete player if everything holds up. Of course, that's a big "if" because 46 games in rookie ball isn't the be-all, end-all, but signs are pointing up for Siani and he could be one of the team's top prospects a year from now.

Infielders and Catchers: C Tyler Stephenson, SS Alfredo Rodriguez, SS Jose Garcia, and 1B Ibandel Isabel
It's a good thing that two of the Reds' best prospects are Nick Senzel and Jonathan India, because after those two, there isn't much in terms of infielders in this system. They do have one viable catcher in 22 year old Tyler Stephenson, which is not something all systems can say, and Stephenson just slashed .250/.338/.392 with 11 home runs and a 98/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at High A Daytona. He's an uncommon catching prospect who can both field and hit, though both will continue to need work. He's got power but doesn't always get to it, and with his moderate on-base ability, the bat is fairly fringy overall. Fortunately for him, the offensive bar for catchers is low and the Reds will give him plenty of time to figure out how to get to his power more consistently, in which case he could be a starting major league catcher. 24 year old Alfredo Rodriguez, who signed for $7 million out of Cuba in 2016, is an interesting prospect because he's a fantastic defender at shortstop but so far in his three minor league seasons, he hasn't hit a lick. In 2018, he slashed .210/.273/.312 with two home runs and a 32/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in complex ball, Daytona, and AA Pensacola while missing time with wrist issues. Having a wicked glove at a premium position will buy your bat all the slack in the world (see Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith), but the bat has to do something in order for him to be useful in the long run. If the bat picks up to the point where he can hit some doubles and get on base at a .300 clip next season, he could crack it as a utility infielder in the majors. 20 year old Jose Garcia signed for $5 million out of Cuba a year after Rodriguez, but so far, he has hit a little better than is elder (and higher paid) counterpart. In his first pro season in 2018, he slashed .245/.290/.344 with six home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Class A Dayton. He's a solid defender at shortstop but not nearly of Rodriguez's caliber, though he's also almost four years younger and hasn't been completely inept at the plate. His plate discipline needs a ton of work and he was overmatched at times by Midwest League pitching, but he has a high offensive ceiling as a guy who can impact the game with more than just his speed. At this point, consider Garcia kind of a wild card, ultimately taking on a utility infielder projection for now but with more (or less) possible. Lastly, 23 year old Ibandel Isabel has some of the most impressive raw power in the system, finishing a 2018 where he blasted 36 home runs and slashed .257/.332/.562 with a 161/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games in High A. Isabel was acquired from the Dodgers for Ariel Hernandez back in April and can really put a charge into the ball, but his sub-par plate discipline leads to far too many strikeouts at this point. He will have to really improve his approach if he wants to produce in the high minors and the majors, and as a first baseman, his defense isn't buying his bat any slack. That said, that power could play really well in Great American Ballpark if he can just get the bat on the ball at a decent rate.

The Pitchers: RHP Keury Mella, RHP Vladimir Gutierrez, LHP Scott Moss, LHP Packy Naughton, RHP Jimmy Herget, and RHP James Marinan
Even after Tony Santillan and Hunter Greene, the Reds still have a solid group of pitchers to develop with a variety of skills and projections. 25 year old Keury Mella, who was signed by the Giants out of the Dominican Republic way back in 2012, was acquired with Adam Duvall in the 2015 Mike Leake trade and has seemingly been a prospect forever. This year, the 6'2" righty posted a 3.00 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 innings at AA Pensacola and AAA Louisville, also adding four unsuccessful major league appearances (8.68 ERA, 8/8 K/BB). He is presently and always has been about stuff over refinement, coming in with a mid 90's fastball and a good slider but lacking much else to really get himself over the hump and be successful in the majors. He clearly has the minor leagues handled judging by his good numbers in the high minors this year, but major league hitters punish his mistakes too regularly. He still has a shot to compete as a starter, but converting him to relief, where his fastball/slider combination could play up, could help him finally stick in the majors for good. 23 year old Vladimir Gutierrez was signed out of Cuba in 2016, and he reached AA in 2018 and posted a 4.35 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 145/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 147 innings with Pensacola. Though he's just six feet tall, Gutierrez has very high upside with his stuff (mid 90's fastball, bat-missing slider) and control that a lot of other young pitchers struggle to put together. He has been plagued by inconsistency in his career, looking like an ace at times and like the opposite at others, but he has been getting better about bringing the same stuff and control from start to start and 2019 could be a real breakout year for him. If not, he could find himself in a similar limbo to Keury Mella down the line. 24 year old Scott Moss has moved slowly for a college pitcher coming from a major program, in this case Florida, spending 2018 at High A and posting a 3.68 ERA, a 1.33 WHIP, and a 112/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 innings at Daytona. The 6'5" lefty doesn't have a standout pitch but uses his pitchability well, and if he can improve his command a little bit, he could sneak up as a back-end starter. Not that it matters, but Moss has been very lucky when it comes to run support and carries an impressive 31-11 record over three minor league seasons, including a 15-4 mark in 2018. I watched 22 year old Packy Naughton a lot in college at Virginia Tech, and he's interesting to say the least. He has a delivery, a funky name, and even a funky throws left/bats right profile. He dominated the Cape Cod League, the nation's premier collegiate summer league, with a 1.69 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 42.2 innings in 2016, but sucked in his three years at Virginia Tech from 2015-2017 (7-14, 6.13 ERA, 172/87 K/BB) even after the strong Cape performance. Admittedly, Virginia Tech's program as a whole was sub-par while he was there to say the least, and he has taken better than I expected to pro ball. In 2018, he posted a 4.03 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 137/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 154 innings at Class A Dayton, showing much better control than he had in college. His stuff is largely average but the quirkiness in his delivery makes it play up, and the Reds must have done something with his mechanics because he's in the strike zone much more. He's still inconsistent, though he has had quite a few more good days in pro ball than he had in college and while I saw him as a reliever back then, he might be able to crack it as a back-end starter with a little more refinement. 25 year old Jimmy Herget is a relief prospect who faired well this year by posting a 3.47 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 65/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings at AAA Louisville, doing so with a very good fastball/slider combination that can come from multiple arm angles. Dominant for his first three pro seasons after being drafted out of USF in the sixth round, he finally had to start making adjustments in AAA, but the 6'3" righty is major league ready and should compete for a middle relief spot in 2019 with a larger role possible if he's successful. Lastly, 20 year old James Marinan came over from the Dodgers in the small Dylan Floro trade in July, and he posted a 3.35 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 50/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 53.2 innings in complex ball and rookie level Billings. He was a fourth round pick out of a south Florida high school in 2017 and he's mostly about his fastball at this point; he throws in the low to mid 90's and gets a lot of ground balls from a 6'5" frame, though the rest of his stuff is yet to take the step forward. That's okay considering he'll spend the entire 2019 season at 20 years old, and if just one of his slider, curveball, or changeup becomes a little sharper in full season ball, the Reds will suddenly have a potential impact pitching prospect on their hands.