This Indians lacks a clear standout, as Nolan Jones and Tyler Freeman have good chances to be impact players but lacks an exciting ceiling, while Triston McKenzie has exciting stuff and polish but can't seem to stay healthy. Down lower though, there are quite a few electric arms like those of Ethan Hankins, Daniel Espino, Carlos Vargas, and Lenny Torres, though I find it just a bit odd that the Indians like to stockpile these high octane arms when they actually develop the opposite extremely well. They've recently graduated a ton of pitchability guys, most notably Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac, and they have a few more coming up in Logan Allen, Scott Moss, Eli Morgan, and Adam Scott. On the offensive side, the system is more contact-focused than power-focused (sorry Bobby Bradley and Will Benson), with guys like Jones, Freeman, Ernie Clement, Brayan Rocchio, and Aaron Bracho seeming more focused on that part of their game.
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, short season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians plus DSL Indians/Brewers
Catcher
- Bo Naylor (2020 Age: 20): The Indians' first round pick out of a Toronto-area high school and the younger brother of Padres rookie Josh Naylor got off to a strong start to his pro career in 2019, slashing .243/.313/.421 with eleven home runs and a 104/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at Class A Lake County. Those numbers might not pop off the page, but high school catching (and catching in general) is so hard to develop that you'll take it most times. He out-hit the other two high-drafted high school catchers from his draft class in Anthony Seigler (.175/.328/.206 at Yankees Class A) and Will Banfield (.199/.252/.310 at Marlins Class A), showing a solid combination of power and plate discipline and even stealing seven bases. In fact, he was my favorite of the three on draft day, and his feel for the barrel should help him develop into a 15-25 homer, decent to solid on-base percentage catcher if things work out.
- Keep an eye on: Gavin Collins, Bryan Lavastida
Corner Infield
- Nolan Jones (2020 Age: 21-22): The best prospect in this system, Nolan Jones has the potential to be an impact bat in the near future. This year, the former second round pick out of a Philadelphia-area high school slashed .272/.409/.442 with 15 home runs and a 148/96 strikeout to walk ratio across 126 games at High A Lynchburg and AA Akron, showing plenty of patience and feel for the barrel. Strongly built at 6'2", he probably won't hit for a ton of power, but he could be a Michael Brantley-type hitter who swats 15-25 home runs per season with high on-base percentages, albeit with a few more strikeouts. He plays a solid third base and while he won't be spectacular there, he'll get the job done. Jones will likely spend a lot of time at AAA in 2020, but don't be surprised to see him called up to the majors at some point.
- Bobby Bradley (2020 Age: 23-24): You want power, Bobby Bradley will give you power. In 2019, he slashed .264/.344/.567 with 33 home runs and a 153/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 games at AAA Columbus, also spending 15 games in the majors and slashing .178/.245/.356 with one home run there. He has the chance to become something of a Joey Gallo-lite, as he probably won't get to his power enough to hit 40+ home runs per season, but he has a good chance to be at least a Matt Adams-type if not more. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game and he's not quite patient enough to offset it, so he's not a guarantee to be able to hit in the majors, but the big raw power means he'll get every opportunity to try, starting in 2020.
- Yu Chang (2020 Age: 24): Chang plays all over the infield, but with the depth of middle infield prospects in this system, we'll put him on the corner infield list. In 2019, he slashed .253/.322/.427 with nine home runs and a 67/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 games at AAA Columbus, also adding in a .178/.286/.274 performance over 28 major league games. He's got some power from the right side and doesn't strike out a ton, and he's worked to become a more balanced hitter in recent years. He profiles more as a useful, bat-first utility infielder than as a starter, but should earn a spot in 2020.
- Keep an eye on: Wilson Garcia, Ulysses Cantu, Jhonkensy Noel, Joe Naranjo
Middle Infield
- Ernie Clement (2020 Age: 24): Clement is a light hitting middle infielder who makes extremely easy contact from the right side of the plate, and he slashed .269/.323/.331 with one home run, 17 stolen bases, and a 34/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games, mostly at AA Akron. He doesn't generate much impact at all, but he puts the ball in play consistently and should not have a problem doing so in the majors. He won't hit for nearly enough power to start, but he should provide a quality utility infielder in the near future.
- Tyler Freeman (2020 Age: 20-21): As a low walk, low power infielder, Freeman was always going to have to get the ball in play a lot to stay relevant, and he's done that about as well as you could hope. After slashing .352/.405/.511 in short season ball in 2018, he hit .306/.368/.410 with three home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 53/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg. He finds the barrel extremely easily and hit 32 doubles and five triples despite knocking just three home runs, continuously taking extra bases and finding ways to help the team win. He lacks physical tools and simply relies on his exceptional feel for the game, and that should make him at least a strong utility infielder if not a starting second baseman at the major league level.
- Brayan Rocchio (2020 Age: 19): Rocchio is just a 5'10", 150 pound 18 year old kid out of Venezuela, but he surprised a lot of people by slashing .335/.390/.442 in complex ball last year. This year, his numbers were a bit down as an 18 year old in short season ball, but he slashed .250/.310/.373 with five home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 40/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at Mahoning Valley. He's got great feel for the barrel and game for his age, and he's an explosive hitter despite his lack of physicality. Adding strength to his small frame could make him an impact hitter all around, and he'll stick up the middle either at second or shortstop.
- Aaron Bracho (2020 Age: 19): Bracho isn't much bigger than Rocchio at 5'11", and in 2019 he slashed .281/.402/.570 with eight home runs and a 29/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 38 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Mahoning Valley. His ability to just drop the barrel to the ball and spray it around the park helped him beat up on the low level competition he faced in the Arizona League, though of course he was only 18 as well. He profiles better as a second baseman but his advanced bat should profile there.
- Christian Cairo (2020 Age: 18-19): The Indians fourth round pick out of a Tampa-area high school in 2019, Christian Cairo is the son of former major leaguer Miguel Cairo. The younger Cairo slashed just .178/.324/.212 with a 40/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games in the Arizona League in his pro debut, though he had only just turned 18 in June. He's well known for his feel for the game and ability to make contact, and the Indians hope that at least some power will come. He's also a strong defender due to his instincts, though second base might be his better long term home, especially in a system deep with middle infield talent like this one.
- Keep an eye on: Ike Freeman, Raynel Delgado, Gabriel Rodriguez, Jose Tena, Yordys Valdes, Angel Martinez
Outfielders
- Daniel Johnson (2020 Age: 24-25): Acquired from the Nationals in the Yan Gomes trade before the season, Johnson had a successful first season in the Cleveland system by slashing .290/.361/.507 with 19 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 118/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Akron and AAA Columbus. Despite standing only 5'10", he's one of the most tooled up players in this system, as he shows power, speed, and arm strength to be a net positive on both sides of the ball. While he can be inconsistent at the plate, he's an impact hitter when he's on, and he projects for 20+ home runs per season and middling on-base percentages if he can make it click up there. Defensively, he could win Gold Gloves in right field because of his cannon arm and good range.
- Ka'ai Tom (2020 Age: 25-26): Tom has flown a bit under the radar since being drafted in the fifth round out of Kentucky in 2015, but he had a breakout 2019 where he slashed .290/.380/.532 with 23 home runs and a 126/64 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games in the upper minors at Akron and Columbus. Even at just 5'9", he has power from a quick left handed swing and it wasn't just a product of the juiced balls in AAA, as he still slashed .512 in AA. He doesn't necessarily sell out for power, but he does have to intentionally lift the ball if he wants to get one out, so his hit tool is a bit behind the power and probably means he'll be more of a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but the bat combined with solid defense in the outfield means he should be a valuable one.
- Will Benson (2020 Age: 21-22): It's hard to know exactly what to make of Benson, a first round pick in 2016 out of high school in Atlanta. He's been brought along slowly with mixed results, not reaching full season ball until 2018 and only slashing .180/.324/.370 for Class A Lake County that year. He repeated the level in 2019, with far different results: 18 home runs, a .272/.371/.604 slash line, 18 stolen bases, and a 78/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. That earned him a promotion to High A Lynchburg, where his numbers dropped again: four home runs, .189/.290/.304 slash line, 73/31 strikeout to walk ratio in 61 games. He has extremely quick hands through the zone that help him produce a ton of power from his 6'5" frame, and he's a selective enough hitter to pad his on-base percentage with plenty of walks. However, he seems to lack the feel for the barrel you'd hope to see in a power hitter like himself, resulting in too many popouts and strikeouts. If he can figure out how to get that barrel where it needs to go, he could hit 30+ home runs annually in the majors, but he isn't there yet. He's also a sound defensive right fielder that should provide positive value there.
- Steven Kwan (2020 Age: 22): Kwan is basically the outfield version of Ernie Clement. A fifth round pick out of Oregon State in 2018, he slashed .280/.353/.382 with three home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 51/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at High A Lynchburg this year. He doesn't show much power but he can spray doubles and triples into the gap, and his exceptional knowledge of the strike zone helps him get the ball in play consistently. He profiles as a fourth outfielder at the major league level but that plate discipline gives him a very good chance of getting there.
- George Valera (2020 Age: 19): Valera is a Dominican outfielder who didn't get a chance to show what he could do until 2019, when he slashed .236/.356/.446 with eight home runs and a 52/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games at short season Mahoning Valley before he slumped to .087/.192/.174 in a six game call-up to Class A Lake County. He's extremely talented with advanced feel for the strike zone and barrel, and that was apparent as he reached full season ball at 18 years old. He'll get another crack at it in his age-19 season in 2020, where he'll hope to take the next step towards developing into a high on-base hitter with some power potential despite his 5'10" frame.
- Keep an eye on: Oscar Gonzalez, Jodd Carter, Quentin Holmes, Will Brennan
Starting Pitching
- Logan Allen (2020 Age: 22-23): Allen has bounced around a lot, originally getting traded from the Red Sox to the Padres in the 2015 Craig Kimbrel deal before finding himself in Cleveland following the three-team Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig/Franmil Reyes trade in July. Spending the year at AAA, Allen had a 5.85 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP, and an 81/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings, also putting up a 6.18 ERA and a 17/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 27.2 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of secondary pitches, led by a plus changeup that functions as his out pitch. The lack of strong breaking balls limits his upside to that of a #4 starter, but he's just about there and with his solid command, he could contribute in the Indians rotation in 2020.
- Scott Moss (2020 Age: 25): Joining Allen in coming over in the three team trade is Scott Moss, a 6'6" lefty who posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 159/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.2 innings at AA and AAA in what was an extremely dominant 2019 campaign. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and doesn't have a true out pitch or even great command, but he uses his size and knowledge of pitching to his advantage to get outs consistently. That makes his average stuff play way up despite his so-so command, and it gives him the chance to exceed expectations upon reaching the majors in 2020, where he's currently projected as a #5 starter.
- Triston McKenzie (2020 Age: 22-23): McKenzie might have the best combination of electric stuff and polish in this system, but injuries held him to just 90.2 innings in 2018 and off the mound completely in 2019. The Floridian righty is a 6'5" string bean that can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add in a curveball with a ton of vertical movement while also keeping lefties off balance with a diving changeup. Unlike most young pitchers with his profile, he can actually command everything pretty well, and when he's on the mound, he looks like a potential future ace or #2 starter. However, he has to figure out how to stay healthy (it was back problems that wiped out his 2019), because otherwise he may be ticketed for the bullpen despite the electric stuff and command.
- Eli Morgan (2020 Age: 23-24): An under the radar eighth round pick out of Gonzaga in 2017, Morgan has exceeded expectations every step of the way and posted a 3.39 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 146/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 140.2 innings at High A Lynchburg, AA Akron, and AAA Columbus. He's only a 5'10" righty with a 90 mile an hour fastball and a decent slider, but he mixes and commands his pitches very well and drops in an above average changeup that functions as his out pitch. There are certainly more exciting arms all over this system, but the Indians have done excepctionally well with developing this kind of crafty righty, recently graduating Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Adam Plutko, and Zach Plesac off of prospect lists and into their rotation.
- Jean Carlos Mejia (2020 Age: 23): Mejia had a big, breakout 2018 season in A ball (3.31 ERA, 100/21 K/BB), but he missed most of 2019 with a sports hernia and finished with a 4.09 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 36/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 innings at High A Lynchburg. When healthy, Mejia checks most of the boxes for a successful major league starter, showing some velocity (low to mid 90's fastball), two good breaking balls with plenty of feel to spin them, and good command from a 6'4" frame. However, he's missing one of the big ones, and that's durability. He set a career high with 98 innings pitched in 2018, and he otherwise has never broken 40 in a season, which is very concerning if you want to hand him 150 per season in the majors. If he can't hold up as a starter, he could be a quality three pitch reliever.
- Ethan Hankins (2020 Age: 19-20): Hankins has about as electric of an arm as you can find, and he used it to post a 2.55 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 71/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings between short season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County in 2019. His mid 90's fastball has a ton of running and riding action that makes it nearly impossible to square up, and his changeup is much more advanced than that of most teenage pitchers. Developing a good breaking ball could make him elite and get hitters' eyes going in the other direction, though he hasn't been able to do that yet and currently relies on merely decent sliders and curveballs. As it stands, with so-so command and a spotty injury history, Hankins is a total boom-bust prospect, though developing only two out of the three between command, durability, and a breaking ball should be enough to make him an impact starter.
- Luis Oviedo (2020 Age: 20-21): Oviedo dominated short season ball in 2018 (1.88 ERA, 61/10 K/BB), though he hasn't quite gotten the same results since reaching full season ball. This year, he had a 5.38 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 72/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 innings, showing a quality fastball in the mid 90's as well as a full array of secondary pitches, but his command regressed and he was hit hard when he missed spots. He's a projectable 6'4" and shows a lot of promise with his feel for multiple offspeed pitches, though there's clearly more work to be done in getting him more consistent with his mechanics and command. However, he's also the kind of guy who could break out at any point.
- Daniel Espino (2020 Age: 19): Ethan Hankins has the second most explosive arm in the system, and that's because 2019 first rounder Daniel Espino has the first. A Panamanian right hander who attended school in Georgia, Espino posted a 3.80 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 34/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.2 innings in the complex level Arizona League and at short season Mahoning Valley. He's generously listed at 6'2" and sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, which like that of Hankins, has excellent life. He can also get sinking action on his similarly fast two seamer, and unlike Hankins, he has not one but two excellent breaking balls that can miss bats. He still needs a changeup, but he has pretty decent command for someone who throws so hard so young and he's proven durable so far, so he has the potential to be a top of the rotation guy. However, hard throwing kids like him have had a spotty track record, with guys like Tyler Kolek, Riley Pint, Alex Speas, and Hunter Greene running into trouble and/or injuries in pro ball recently (and the jury is still out on Hankins).
- Hunter Gaddis (2020 Age: 22): A fifth round pick out of Georgia State in 2019, I noted Gaddis as more of an upside play than a safe bet despite coming from the college ranks. That might already be coming to fruition, as he had about as successful as a pro debut as you can imagine: 2.73 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 53/7 K/BB over 33 innings in complex ball and at Mahoning Valley. Gaddis brings four pitches to the table but was often inconsistent at Georgia State as his mechanics made his stuff play down, but the Indians have already quieted down his delivery and he did a much better job of hitting his spots in pro ball, also looking like he's getting better extension towards the plate. If he can maintain this progress, he could be a steal in the fifth round and provide Cleveland with a mid-rotation starter. Watch this one.
- Keep an eye on: Sam Hentges, Adam Scott, Cody Morris, Juan Hillman, Lenny Torres,
Relief Pitching
- James Karinchak (2020 Age: 24): Want to know what untouchable looks like? In 2019, Karinchak had a 2.67 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 74/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 30.1 innings between AA Akron, AAA Columbus, and some complex level rehab. Those numbers are skewed a bit by the juiced balls in AAA, but Karinchak's run through AA especially was nothing short of legendary: ten shutout innings, two hits, two walks, and 24 strikeouts. That's two thirds of his opponents going down via strikeout in AA and 59.2% overall. He sits in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and gets some serious run on it, and his hammer curveball gets him swings and misses virtually whenever he wants them. However, he struggles to throw strikes consistently, which is just about the only thing keeping him from being a major league closer today. Landing his two plus pitches for strikes could get him there though, and even if he has only a rough idea where the ball is going, he'll be a successful major league reliever. In five appearances with the Indians this year, he had a 1.69 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and an 8/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 5.1 innings.
- Nick Sandlin (2020 Age: 23): A second round pick out of Southern Miss in 2018, Sandlin reached AAA in his first full season and might be just as interesting as Karinchak. After dominating, and I mean dominating (1.06 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 144/18 K/BB) as a junior at USM, he spent 2019 in the upper minors and posted a 2.39 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 38/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at Akron and Columbus. He's only 5'11" and sits in the low 90's with his fastball, but he gets by on 80-grade deception because he can and will throw all of his pitches overhand, sidearm, or even submarine, racking up awkward swings all over the place and keeping hitters as off balance as can be. His slider especially is a weapon, as it can dive clear across the plate, and he commands everything pretty well. Unfortunately, he was shut down with a forearm strain in July, so durability remains an important question.
- Carlos Vargas (2020 Age: 20): Vargas spent 2019 as a starter in short season ball, posting a 4.52 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 77.2 innings. He's got an extremely quick arm that produces and explosive mid 90's fastball and a hard, bat-missing slider, and the Indians are hoping to help him develop that changeup and command and keep him in the rotation. Even though he'll spend all of 2020 at 20 years old, his delivery, explosive stuff, and quick arm most likely point to the bullpen for me, where he could sit in the upper 90's and miss bats by the bunch.
- Keep an eye on: Aaron Pinto, Kellen Rholl, Matt Waldron
Showing posts with label Ethan Hankins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ethan Hankins. Show all posts
Monday, November 18, 2019
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Reviewing the Cleveland Indians Farm System
The Cleveland system has thinned a bit in recent years as they have made their run at contention, and it is really impressive that many of their current stars like Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber, Jason Kipnis, and Cody Allen are all home grown. Even Carlos Carrasco and Michael Brantley were traded to the Indians before their MLB debuts, and Trevor Bauer came over as a rookie. When it comes to the farm system, it's about upside for the Indians. They have a few utility types and back-end starters around the system, but there are a lot of guys who have the potential to be either stars or busts. Though there is a greater quantity of potential impact hitters in the system, it's fairly well balanced from a positional standpoint. The big thing for Cleveland, though, is that it is thin on safe bets; a lot of these guys are all or nothing and the system isn't quite deep enough to support that.
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, Short Season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians
The Headliners: RHP Triston McKenzie and 3B Nolan Jones
While the Indians' system isn't all that deep behind these two, fans should be happy to have two legitimate impact prospects moving up through the system. 21 year old Triston McKenzie has ace upside, having dominated the minors so far with a 2.68 career ERA in over 300 innings with more room to grow. The skinny 6'5" righty from south Florida put together a very solid season at AA Akron after getting a late start due to forearm problems, going 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. At 24%, it was the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but that can be overlooked due to the fact that he was able to keep runners off the bases at a fairly young age for AA. He has good command of an advanced arsenal, and if he can add a little more weight and with it a little more velocity, it's not hard to envision him as an ace. Even as is, he has a very good shot at becoming at least a #2 or #3 starter. Meanwhile, 20 year old Nolan Jones is the team's top offensive prospect, erasing a meh 2017 by slashing .283/.405/.466 with 19 home runs and a 131/89 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg with no loss of production upon the promotion. He has power and plate discipline in the box and could be an impact hitter in the middle of the Indians lineup, and as a solid-fielding third baseman, he carries more defensive value than would an outfielder of similar ability. In a couple of years, it's not hard to see Jones ending up like his predecessor, Jose Ramirez.
Potential 2019 Contributors: 1B Bobby Bradley, SS Yu Chang, OF Oscar Mercado, OF Daniel Johnson, RHP Chih-Wei Hu, RHP Aaron Civale, and RHP James Karinchak
The Indians do have a fair number of guys who could make their debuts in 2019 (or in Hu's case, get back to the majors), and while most of them have very limited upside, some of them could break through and be more than role players. 22 year old Bobby Bradley has been a prospect for years, and it's kind of weird to think that he's just 22. This year, he slashed .224/.308/.464 with 27 home runs and a 148/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games between AA Akron and AAA Columbus, showing the exact same skill set he has shown all along: lots of power, some patience, and not much else. He now has 114 minor league home runs and doesn't even turn 23 until the end of May, but he has also struck out 626 times so far and it's still uncertain whether he'll be able to make enough contact in the majors for his power to matter. As a first baseman, he'll have to make at least some contact, even with the power. 23 year old Yu Chang also has power, but not as much as Bradley and he has much more defensive value. In 2018, he slashed .256/.330/.411 with 13 home runs and a 144/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Columbus. He struggles to make contact but with less power than Bradley, he's unlikely to ever hit enough to start in Cleveland. His defensive versatility does give him an opportunity to be a utility player though. 23 year old Oscar Mercado came over from the Cardinals and performed adequately well in AAA, slashing .278/.349/.390 with eight home runs, 37 stolen bases, and an 87/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. He shows speed and some power, and while he looks more like a fourth outfielder at this point, his offensive breakout over the past two seasons could make him a fringe starter that garners significant playing time in what is, at least for now, a thin Cleveland outfield. Lastly, 23 year old Daniel Johnson was previously written up in the Washington Nationals piece, looking like a defense-first center fielder with speed and some power. After slashing .298/.356/.505 with 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases in A ball in 2017, he dipped to .269/.327/.412 with seven home runs and 22 stolen bases in 96 games in 2018, mostly in AA. He's another guy who looks like a fourth outfielder at first glance but who could surprise if he can get to his power enough, given the thin state of that Cleveland outfield. 25 year old Chih-Wei Hu has been knocking on the door to the majors for a few years, and after throwing 23 innings very solid innings for the Rays from 2017-2018 (3.52 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 21/7 K/BB), he is hoping to finally break through in 2019. He also posted a 4.66 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 92/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AAA in 2018, and while he could fit in as a #5 starter if given the chance with his good command of a deep arsenal, his best bet may be as a long reliever. 23 year old Aaron Civale has a little more upside, using his interesting profile to post a 3.89 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 78/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.1 innings at AA Akron in 2018. He throws low 90's but gets outs with a great slider, commanding it all extremely well. He has had success so far in the minors, but if he wants to cut it in the majors, he'll either need to add velocity or improve his changeup, because in his present state, he'll fare better as a reliever. 23 year old James Karinchak was a well known name in college baseball due to his success at Bryant University, but he fell to the ninth round due to concerns about his long term projectability. In 2018, he answered those concerns by dominating three levels of the minor leagues, posting a 1.29 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 81/36 strikeout walk ratio over 48.2 innings at Class A Lake County, High A Lynchburg, and AA Akron. While the walk rate was a bit frightening to say the least, the 6'3" righty also strikes out opponents in bunches and has the stuff to compete at the major league level. Honing in his control and throwing more strikes might be all he needs to be an impact reliever.
Mid-Minors Prospects: RHP Eli Morgan, LHP Sam Hentges, RHP Nick Sandlin, RHP Luis Oviedo, OF Will Benson, SS Richard Palacios, and LHP Brady Aiken
The mid-minors aren't as deep as the upper and lower minors, so I expanded this section somewhat into both in order to fill it. This section is pitching-heavy, with the two offensive prospects coming with a few question marks. We'll start with 22 year old Eli Morgan, a 2017 draftee out of Gonzaga who has dominated the minors with a 2.83 ERA since he was drafted. Splitting 2018 between Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg, the 5'10" righty put up a 3.27 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a very good 156/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.1 innings. He doesn't throw hard but is a master at attacking hitters smartly, and his excellent changeup seems to just drop off the table. He was more effective at Lake County (1.83 ERA, 56/8 K/BB) than at Lynchburg (3.91, 100/26), which means his ability to effectively beat major league hitters is still in question given his skill set, but I think he has a good chance to be a back-end starter. 22 year old Sam Hentges has progressed slowly through the minors due to Tommy John surgery but pitched well at High A Lynchburg in 2018, albeit in a different way than Morgan. Over 23 starts, he posted a 3.27 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 122/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, showing good stuff but clearly room to grow to become a complete pitcher. He throws in the low to mid 90's and can hit you with a good slider, and at 6'6" and 245 pounds, he's an intimidating presence on the mound. However, he struggles to command his pitches and gets hit more than he should, and his future may be in the bullpen, where I think he could be a solid set-up man. 21 year old Nick Sandlin is a fascinating pitcher, having absolutely dominated college ball at Southern Miss this year by going 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 starts with an extremely unique profile. Sandlin is just 5'11" and throws in the low 90's, but he can throw from almost any arm angle while mixing five pitches along the way, meaning he could go an entire inning without throwing the same pitch from the same angle twice. His craftiness led to a solid pro debut in which he pitched well at four different levels, posting a 3.00 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between complex ball, Lake County, Lynchburg, and Akron. With his quite impressive command given all the arm angles, he actually didn't walk anybody in his three innings in complex ball or his 10.1 innings at Lake County, issuing his first walk up in Lynchburg. He looks like a reliever for now, but he could be the most interesting reliever since at least switch pitcher Pat Venditte. 19 year old Luis Oviedo may have been the most best, most unexpected development for the Indians farm system in 2018, with everything taking a step forward. Over eleven starts between Short Season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County, he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 67/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, bumping his velocity into the mid 90's, improving his offspeed pitches, and throwing more strikes. The 6'4" righty is still a little bit under the radar, but if he carries over his success into 2019, he could position himself to be the top pitching prospect in the system upon Triston McKenzie's graduation to the majors. 20 year old Will Benson is an interesting prospect as a power hitter with good defense who just can't make contact. Over 123 games at Lake County in 2018, he slashed .180/.324/.370 with 22 home runs and a 152/82 strikeout to walk ratio, and the numbers speak for himself. At 6'5" and 225 pounds and with a quick left handed swing, he shows huge power, and with a good eye at the plate, he draws plenty of walks and can make up for low batting averages. However, in order to move up, he has to get better extension on his swing, which hampers his contact and causes those extremely low batting averages. 21 year old Richard Palacios was drafted out of Towson in the third round (103rd overall) in 2018, noted for his exceptional plate discipline around an otherwise average skill set. He had a very successful debut, slashing .361/.421/.538 with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball, Mahoning Valley, and Lake County. That plate discipline carried through into the minors and he showed more sock in his bat than anticipated, though obviously in a small sample size. A shortstop now, there's a chance he moves to second base, and I see him overall as a utility man. Lastly, 22 year old Brady Aiken isn't really a prospect anymore after missing the 2018 season due to another injury, but he's on here just by virtue of being the first overall pick of the 2014 draft (and 17th overall in 2015). His command has completely fallen apart (he walked 101 batters in 132 innings at Lake County in 2017), he can't stay healthy, and he's not fooling hitters. At this point, he's likely to join 2013 first overall pick Mark Appel on the list of first overall picks to never make the majors.
The Distant Future: RHP Ethan Hankins, RHP Lenny Torres, C Noah Naylor, SS Tyler Freeman, OF George Valera, SS Brayan Rocchio, SS Aaron Bracho, and SS Gabriel Rodriguez,
Some of the best talent in the D-Backs system is concentrated at the very bottom, especially when it comes to hitters. They have been very active in the Latin American market and have added numerous players who could be impact prospects in a few years, and out of this group, they should have no problem finding a shortstop to replace Francisco Lindor if he walks as a free agent. Starting with the arms, 18 year old Ethan Hankins may have the highest upside in the system among pitchers, having been drafted in the comp round (35th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2018. His short pro debut was nothing remarkable (3 IP, 2 ER, 6/0 K/BB in complex ball), but the stuff is. On the right day, the 6'6" righty can throw upper 90's with a good changeup and a developing curveball/slider contingent. However, he is extremely inconsistent at this point, even for a teenager, both with his velocity and with the quality of his stuff. He will take a lot of development and also some luck staying away from injuries, but if he stays healthy and develops as hoped, he could be an ace. If not, the bullpen is a solid fallback, where he could be an electric late-inning reliever. 18 year old Lenny Torres was drafted six picks later (41st overall) out of a New York high school, and he is similarly raw. He had a larger debut (1.76 ERA, 22/4 K/BB, 15.1 IP in complex ball), and he comes at hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs development. His command is pretty decent, but as a slim-shouldered, 6'1" righty, he is smaller than most starting pitchers and he will have to prove that he can handle a pro starter's workload. If not, his fastball/slider combination should work well in the bullpen. Moving onto hitters, 18 year old catcher Noah Naylor was drafted 29th overall in 2018, six picks before Hankins and twelve before Torres. He's a catcher straight out of high school near Toronto, slashing .274/.381/.402 with a pair of home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games in complex ball. He's a bat-first catcher, one with the power and patience at the plate to profile well as a major leaguer regardless of what position he end up at, though the Indians obviously hope he can improve his defense enough to remain a catcher. Unlike some of the power hitters ahead of him, he doesn't project to have serious strikeout issues of Bobby Bradley, Will Benson, etc. 19 year old Tyler Freeman spent 2018 at Short Season Mahoning Valley, slashing an impressive .352/.405/.511 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 games. His best tool is his exceptional ability to make contact and find the barrel, leading to low strikeout rates but also to low walk rates, limiting his on-base percentage. He doesn't hit for much power and his infield defense is average, so he may end up a second baseman. He'll have to continue to hit for high averages to remain relevant. Lastly, 17 year olds George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, and Aaron Bracho were all signed out of Latin America in the 2017 signing period and 16 year old Gabriel Rodriguez came in the 2018 period, though none have had time to make a real impact yet. Valera, who has played six games in complex ball and homered while slashing .333/.409/.556, is considered the top prospect of the four as he shows great bat speed from a smooth left handed swing. The outfielder could also hit for some power despite standing just 5'10", and he has a good shot at making it through the long road to the majors from complex ball. Rocchio, meanwhile played 60 games in complex ball and slashed .335/.390/.442 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 31/15 strikeout to walk ratio. Like Valera, he's just 5'10" but shows a very advanced bat for a 17 year old, though he's faster and does not project to have as much power. A shortstop right now, he could be able to stick there if he can maintain his athleticism as he gets stronger. Bracho and Rodriguez have not played in the minors yet, with the 17 year old Bracho projecting fairly similarly to the 16 year old Rodriguez. Both are shortstops, though Rodriguez is taller and skinnier while Bracho, a switch hitter like Rocchio, has a slightly more advanced bat.
Cool Names: C Sicnarf Loopstok and 2B Makesiondon Kelkboom
Lastly, I would be remiss to leave out possibly the most outlandishly named pair in all of minor league baseball, though neither 25 year old Sicnarf Loopstok nor 18 year old Makesiondon Kelkboom are legitimate prospects at this point. Loopstok slashed .225/.361/.418 with nine home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games at AA Akron, showing good plate discipline and some moderate power, but overall he looks to be a back-up catcher at absolute best with little sock in the bat and a 26th birthday approaching in April. Kelkboom, a cousin of Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, slashed just .127/.292/.211 in complex ball this year, like Loopstok showing the ability to draw a walk but little else.
Affiliates: AAA Columbus Clippers, AA Akron RubberDucks, High A Lynchburg Hillcats, Class A Lake County Captains, Short Season Mahoning Valley Scrappers, complex level AZL and DSL Indians
The Headliners: RHP Triston McKenzie and 3B Nolan Jones
While the Indians' system isn't all that deep behind these two, fans should be happy to have two legitimate impact prospects moving up through the system. 21 year old Triston McKenzie has ace upside, having dominated the minors so far with a 2.68 career ERA in over 300 innings with more room to grow. The skinny 6'5" righty from south Florida put together a very solid season at AA Akron after getting a late start due to forearm problems, going 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and an 87/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.2 innings. At 24%, it was the lowest strikeout rate of his career, but that can be overlooked due to the fact that he was able to keep runners off the bases at a fairly young age for AA. He has good command of an advanced arsenal, and if he can add a little more weight and with it a little more velocity, it's not hard to envision him as an ace. Even as is, he has a very good shot at becoming at least a #2 or #3 starter. Meanwhile, 20 year old Nolan Jones is the team's top offensive prospect, erasing a meh 2017 by slashing .283/.405/.466 with 19 home runs and a 131/89 strikeout to walk ratio over 120 games between Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg with no loss of production upon the promotion. He has power and plate discipline in the box and could be an impact hitter in the middle of the Indians lineup, and as a solid-fielding third baseman, he carries more defensive value than would an outfielder of similar ability. In a couple of years, it's not hard to see Jones ending up like his predecessor, Jose Ramirez.
Potential 2019 Contributors: 1B Bobby Bradley, SS Yu Chang, OF Oscar Mercado, OF Daniel Johnson, RHP Chih-Wei Hu, RHP Aaron Civale, and RHP James Karinchak
The Indians do have a fair number of guys who could make their debuts in 2019 (or in Hu's case, get back to the majors), and while most of them have very limited upside, some of them could break through and be more than role players. 22 year old Bobby Bradley has been a prospect for years, and it's kind of weird to think that he's just 22. This year, he slashed .224/.308/.464 with 27 home runs and a 148/56 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games between AA Akron and AAA Columbus, showing the exact same skill set he has shown all along: lots of power, some patience, and not much else. He now has 114 minor league home runs and doesn't even turn 23 until the end of May, but he has also struck out 626 times so far and it's still uncertain whether he'll be able to make enough contact in the majors for his power to matter. As a first baseman, he'll have to make at least some contact, even with the power. 23 year old Yu Chang also has power, but not as much as Bradley and he has much more defensive value. In 2018, he slashed .256/.330/.411 with 13 home runs and a 144/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at Columbus. He struggles to make contact but with less power than Bradley, he's unlikely to ever hit enough to start in Cleveland. His defensive versatility does give him an opportunity to be a utility player though. 23 year old Oscar Mercado came over from the Cardinals and performed adequately well in AAA, slashing .278/.349/.390 with eight home runs, 37 stolen bases, and an 87/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games. He shows speed and some power, and while he looks more like a fourth outfielder at this point, his offensive breakout over the past two seasons could make him a fringe starter that garners significant playing time in what is, at least for now, a thin Cleveland outfield. Lastly, 23 year old Daniel Johnson was previously written up in the Washington Nationals piece, looking like a defense-first center fielder with speed and some power. After slashing .298/.356/.505 with 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases in A ball in 2017, he dipped to .269/.327/.412 with seven home runs and 22 stolen bases in 96 games in 2018, mostly in AA. He's another guy who looks like a fourth outfielder at first glance but who could surprise if he can get to his power enough, given the thin state of that Cleveland outfield. 25 year old Chih-Wei Hu has been knocking on the door to the majors for a few years, and after throwing 23 innings very solid innings for the Rays from 2017-2018 (3.52 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 21/7 K/BB), he is hoping to finally break through in 2019. He also posted a 4.66 ERA, a 1.38 WHIP, and a 92/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.1 innings at AAA in 2018, and while he could fit in as a #5 starter if given the chance with his good command of a deep arsenal, his best bet may be as a long reliever. 23 year old Aaron Civale has a little more upside, using his interesting profile to post a 3.89 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 78/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.1 innings at AA Akron in 2018. He throws low 90's but gets outs with a great slider, commanding it all extremely well. He has had success so far in the minors, but if he wants to cut it in the majors, he'll either need to add velocity or improve his changeup, because in his present state, he'll fare better as a reliever. 23 year old James Karinchak was a well known name in college baseball due to his success at Bryant University, but he fell to the ninth round due to concerns about his long term projectability. In 2018, he answered those concerns by dominating three levels of the minor leagues, posting a 1.29 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and an 81/36 strikeout walk ratio over 48.2 innings at Class A Lake County, High A Lynchburg, and AA Akron. While the walk rate was a bit frightening to say the least, the 6'3" righty also strikes out opponents in bunches and has the stuff to compete at the major league level. Honing in his control and throwing more strikes might be all he needs to be an impact reliever.
Mid-Minors Prospects: RHP Eli Morgan, LHP Sam Hentges, RHP Nick Sandlin, RHP Luis Oviedo, OF Will Benson, SS Richard Palacios, and LHP Brady Aiken
The mid-minors aren't as deep as the upper and lower minors, so I expanded this section somewhat into both in order to fill it. This section is pitching-heavy, with the two offensive prospects coming with a few question marks. We'll start with 22 year old Eli Morgan, a 2017 draftee out of Gonzaga who has dominated the minors with a 2.83 ERA since he was drafted. Splitting 2018 between Class A Lake County and High A Lynchburg, the 5'10" righty put up a 3.27 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a very good 156/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.1 innings. He doesn't throw hard but is a master at attacking hitters smartly, and his excellent changeup seems to just drop off the table. He was more effective at Lake County (1.83 ERA, 56/8 K/BB) than at Lynchburg (3.91, 100/26), which means his ability to effectively beat major league hitters is still in question given his skill set, but I think he has a good chance to be a back-end starter. 22 year old Sam Hentges has progressed slowly through the minors due to Tommy John surgery but pitched well at High A Lynchburg in 2018, albeit in a different way than Morgan. Over 23 starts, he posted a 3.27 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 122/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings, showing good stuff but clearly room to grow to become a complete pitcher. He throws in the low to mid 90's and can hit you with a good slider, and at 6'6" and 245 pounds, he's an intimidating presence on the mound. However, he struggles to command his pitches and gets hit more than he should, and his future may be in the bullpen, where I think he could be a solid set-up man. 21 year old Nick Sandlin is a fascinating pitcher, having absolutely dominated college ball at Southern Miss this year by going 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 starts with an extremely unique profile. Sandlin is just 5'11" and throws in the low 90's, but he can throw from almost any arm angle while mixing five pitches along the way, meaning he could go an entire inning without throwing the same pitch from the same angle twice. His craftiness led to a solid pro debut in which he pitched well at four different levels, posting a 3.00 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 innings between complex ball, Lake County, Lynchburg, and Akron. With his quite impressive command given all the arm angles, he actually didn't walk anybody in his three innings in complex ball or his 10.1 innings at Lake County, issuing his first walk up in Lynchburg. He looks like a reliever for now, but he could be the most interesting reliever since at least switch pitcher Pat Venditte. 19 year old Luis Oviedo may have been the most best, most unexpected development for the Indians farm system in 2018, with everything taking a step forward. Over eleven starts between Short Season Mahoning Valley and Class A Lake County, he posted a 2.05 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 67/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, bumping his velocity into the mid 90's, improving his offspeed pitches, and throwing more strikes. The 6'4" righty is still a little bit under the radar, but if he carries over his success into 2019, he could position himself to be the top pitching prospect in the system upon Triston McKenzie's graduation to the majors. 20 year old Will Benson is an interesting prospect as a power hitter with good defense who just can't make contact. Over 123 games at Lake County in 2018, he slashed .180/.324/.370 with 22 home runs and a 152/82 strikeout to walk ratio, and the numbers speak for himself. At 6'5" and 225 pounds and with a quick left handed swing, he shows huge power, and with a good eye at the plate, he draws plenty of walks and can make up for low batting averages. However, in order to move up, he has to get better extension on his swing, which hampers his contact and causes those extremely low batting averages. 21 year old Richard Palacios was drafted out of Towson in the third round (103rd overall) in 2018, noted for his exceptional plate discipline around an otherwise average skill set. He had a very successful debut, slashing .361/.421/.538 with six home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 27/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games between complex ball, Mahoning Valley, and Lake County. That plate discipline carried through into the minors and he showed more sock in his bat than anticipated, though obviously in a small sample size. A shortstop now, there's a chance he moves to second base, and I see him overall as a utility man. Lastly, 22 year old Brady Aiken isn't really a prospect anymore after missing the 2018 season due to another injury, but he's on here just by virtue of being the first overall pick of the 2014 draft (and 17th overall in 2015). His command has completely fallen apart (he walked 101 batters in 132 innings at Lake County in 2017), he can't stay healthy, and he's not fooling hitters. At this point, he's likely to join 2013 first overall pick Mark Appel on the list of first overall picks to never make the majors.
The Distant Future: RHP Ethan Hankins, RHP Lenny Torres, C Noah Naylor, SS Tyler Freeman, OF George Valera, SS Brayan Rocchio, SS Aaron Bracho, and SS Gabriel Rodriguez,
Some of the best talent in the D-Backs system is concentrated at the very bottom, especially when it comes to hitters. They have been very active in the Latin American market and have added numerous players who could be impact prospects in a few years, and out of this group, they should have no problem finding a shortstop to replace Francisco Lindor if he walks as a free agent. Starting with the arms, 18 year old Ethan Hankins may have the highest upside in the system among pitchers, having been drafted in the comp round (35th overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2018. His short pro debut was nothing remarkable (3 IP, 2 ER, 6/0 K/BB in complex ball), but the stuff is. On the right day, the 6'6" righty can throw upper 90's with a good changeup and a developing curveball/slider contingent. However, he is extremely inconsistent at this point, even for a teenager, both with his velocity and with the quality of his stuff. He will take a lot of development and also some luck staying away from injuries, but if he stays healthy and develops as hoped, he could be an ace. If not, the bullpen is a solid fallback, where he could be an electric late-inning reliever. 18 year old Lenny Torres was drafted six picks later (41st overall) out of a New York high school, and he is similarly raw. He had a larger debut (1.76 ERA, 22/4 K/BB, 15.1 IP in complex ball), and he comes at hitters with a mid to upper 90's fastball and a good slider, though the rest of his game needs development. His command is pretty decent, but as a slim-shouldered, 6'1" righty, he is smaller than most starting pitchers and he will have to prove that he can handle a pro starter's workload. If not, his fastball/slider combination should work well in the bullpen. Moving onto hitters, 18 year old catcher Noah Naylor was drafted 29th overall in 2018, six picks before Hankins and twelve before Torres. He's a catcher straight out of high school near Toronto, slashing .274/.381/.402 with a pair of home runs and a 28/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 games in complex ball. He's a bat-first catcher, one with the power and patience at the plate to profile well as a major leaguer regardless of what position he end up at, though the Indians obviously hope he can improve his defense enough to remain a catcher. Unlike some of the power hitters ahead of him, he doesn't project to have serious strikeout issues of Bobby Bradley, Will Benson, etc. 19 year old Tyler Freeman spent 2018 at Short Season Mahoning Valley, slashing an impressive .352/.405/.511 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 22/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 72 games. His best tool is his exceptional ability to make contact and find the barrel, leading to low strikeout rates but also to low walk rates, limiting his on-base percentage. He doesn't hit for much power and his infield defense is average, so he may end up a second baseman. He'll have to continue to hit for high averages to remain relevant. Lastly, 17 year olds George Valera, Brayan Rocchio, and Aaron Bracho were all signed out of Latin America in the 2017 signing period and 16 year old Gabriel Rodriguez came in the 2018 period, though none have had time to make a real impact yet. Valera, who has played six games in complex ball and homered while slashing .333/.409/.556, is considered the top prospect of the four as he shows great bat speed from a smooth left handed swing. The outfielder could also hit for some power despite standing just 5'10", and he has a good shot at making it through the long road to the majors from complex ball. Rocchio, meanwhile played 60 games in complex ball and slashed .335/.390/.442 with a pair of home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 31/15 strikeout to walk ratio. Like Valera, he's just 5'10" but shows a very advanced bat for a 17 year old, though he's faster and does not project to have as much power. A shortstop right now, he could be able to stick there if he can maintain his athleticism as he gets stronger. Bracho and Rodriguez have not played in the minors yet, with the 17 year old Bracho projecting fairly similarly to the 16 year old Rodriguez. Both are shortstops, though Rodriguez is taller and skinnier while Bracho, a switch hitter like Rocchio, has a slightly more advanced bat.
Cool Names: C Sicnarf Loopstok and 2B Makesiondon Kelkboom
Lastly, I would be remiss to leave out possibly the most outlandishly named pair in all of minor league baseball, though neither 25 year old Sicnarf Loopstok nor 18 year old Makesiondon Kelkboom are legitimate prospects at this point. Loopstok slashed .225/.361/.418 with nine home runs and a 57/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games at AA Akron, showing good plate discipline and some moderate power, but overall he looks to be a back-up catcher at absolute best with little sock in the bat and a 26th birthday approaching in April. Kelkboom, a cousin of Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar, slashed just .127/.292/.211 in complex ball this year, like Loopstok showing the ability to draw a walk but little else.
Saturday, June 16, 2018
2018 Draft Review: Cleveland Indians
First 5 rounds: Noah Naylor (1-29), Ethan Hankins (1-35), Lenny Torres (CBA-41), Nick Sandlin (2-67), Richard Palacios (3-103), Adam Scott (4-133), Steven Kwan (5-163)
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)
The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.
1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.
1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.
CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.
2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.
3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder.
Also notable: Raynel Delgado (6-193), Antoine Duplantis (19-583), Cody Farhat (23-703)
The Indians like to mix up their drafts and grab some of the less conventional players in the early rounds, then move on to high floor guys as the draft moves forward. While first rounder Noah Naylor isn't an ultra-unique player, the next three picks definitely fit that description, and this strategy usually works well for them. Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and Shane Bieber are their best recent draft picks, showing that they do well with pitchers (Brady Aiken aside), and they'll look to add to their success this year. Interestingly the players they selected early from college all had great strikeout to walk ratios, with pitchers Nick Sandlin (2nd round) and Adam Scott (4th round) combining for a 281/36 ratio and hitters Richard Palacios (3rd round) and Steven Kwan (5th round) combining for a 31/100 ratio.
1-29: C Noah Naylor (my rank: 29)
I'm not a fan of taking high school catchers early, but I am okay with this Noah Naylor pick in the first round. The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Noah as plenty of power but also shows advanced plate discipline for his age, giving him the opportunity to be an impact hitter at the major league level. While most catchers who have to move off the position usually end up at first base, he has the athleticism to play third base, and that really helps his stock if he doesn't stick as a catcher. He has room to add power, in my opinion, if he can gain more ground with his swing, though his defense could use work. He has a strong arm but needs to improve his receiving; as with all high catchers, there is risk here, but I think the risk is less than most and he has the potential to be an impact player in Cleveland. The Toronto-area native has not signed yet, with the slot-value sitting just over $2.3 million.
1-35: RHP Ethan Hankins (my rank: 22)
The Indians made a somewhat similar pick with Brady Aiken with the 17th selection in 2016, but they'll hope Hankins performs a bit better. He's a very interesting prospect (a theme you'll notice in this Cleveland draft), as he had top five buzz entering the spring but found his stock bouncing all over the place throughout the season. Hankins is a high school pitcher from the Atlanta area that throws his fastball in the mid 90's, touching 98, and the lateral movement on that fastball makes it a plus-plus pitch. On top of that, he can command it well, making it nearly un-hittable. His changeup is also advanced for a high schooler, with his breaking ball being the only question for him, stuff-wise, when he's healthy. He throws a slider and a curve, and while neither has been particularly special, I do like the shape on the curve and I think it could develop into a usable pitch. He's projectable at 6'6" and is younger for the class with his 18th birthday coming less than a month ago in May, and together that adds up to a top ten profile. However, there are some significant downsides in his profile beyond just his breaking ball. He missed a month earlier this season with shoulder issues, which are a very big deal for young pitchers. The effects of the injury caused his stuff to be very inconsistent this year, with his fastball dipping below 90 at times and his changeup occasionally flattening out. Hankins has a wide range of possible outcomes as a pitcher, anywhere from becoming an ace to a high leverage reliever to an A-ball could-have-been that blows out his shoulder and never is the same. Time will tell, but the Indians did have three of the first 41 picks and could afford to take a risk on this one. He has not signed, but will likely require more than the just over $2 million slot in order to be drawn away from Vanderbilt.
CBA-41: RHP Lenny Torres (my rank: 43)
Torres is another guy with a bit of a unique profile, as he is a skinny, 6'2" high school right hander from Beacon, New York, about 50 miles north of the Bronx. He gets great arm speed in his delivery, truly unleashing his pitches rather than forcing them, and he runs his fastball up to the mid 90's consistently. The live armed righty also has a pretty good slider which should get better with pro coaching, and he has a decent changeup as well. Like Hankins, he's a high risk pick due to the fact that he's just so raw as a player, which is understandable coming from New York, but he's very young for the class and won't be 18 until October. He also hasn't signed yet, with slot value sitting just over $1.7 million.
2-67: RHP Nick Sandlin (unranked)
Sandlin is a fascinating player who had a fantastic season at Southern Miss in a very interesting way. The 5'11" righty went 10-0 with a 1.06 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 144/18 strikeout to walk ratio in 102 innings, turning in one of the best pitching seasons in recent memory. He is the ultimate deception pitcher, sometimes throwing overhand, sometimes, submarine, and everywhere in between. He doesn't throw particularly hard, sitting anywhere from the upper 80's to the low 90's, but the fastball is so hard to hit due to its life and the fact that you'll have no idea where it's coming from. He throws a slider, curve, and changeup, and all of them can come from any arm slot. He has the stamina to last as a starter, averaging almost seven innings per start and throwing three complete game shutouts this year, but pro hitters might be able to pick up on the deception. He did dominate the Cape Cod League as well, putting up a 1.99 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 39/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, though that was as a reliever. The Indians will run him out as a starter, but his stuff will play up in relief and that may be his ultimate destination. Fun fact, he was the first Indians selection this year to have been born in the 20th century. Feel old yet? He signed for $750,000, which his $189,700 under slot.
3-103: SS Richard Palacios (unranked)
Palacios has played shortstop at Towson University, but he's probably a second baseman at the next level. He has the bat to profile there, putting up a .301/.457/.515 line with eight home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a 16/52 strikeout to walk ratio as a junior. That strikeout to walk ratio stands out the most, as he is very selective and gets on base at a great clip while also avoiding swinging through bad pitches. That should help him advance fairly quickly through the minors, with the rest of his offensive game showing average or better. Because speed and plate discipline are his only plus tools, he'll probably end up a utility guy who plays second base and some outfield, but the ability to move quickly makes him an attractive option. He already signed for $475,000, which is $69,200 below slot.
Others: 4th rounder Adam Scott is coming off a breakout senior year at Wofford where he went 8-5 with a 3.14 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and an excellent 137/18 strikeout to walk ratio. The polished left hander will try to work his way up as a back-end starter, but his biggest contribution so far has been signing for just $50,000, saving the Indians $356,300 against their bonus pool. 5th rounder Steven Kwan plays center field at Oregon State, and I'm actually watching him in the College World Series as I type this. Kwan is a similar player to his teammate, fourth overall pick Nick Madrigal, showing great bat to ball and speed abilities from a skinny, 5'8" frame. He slashed .357/.465/.463 with a pair of home runs, 14 stolen bases, and an excellent 15/48 strikeout to walk ratio. He'll never hit for power, but the combination of patience, contact, and speed should get him a job as a fourth outfielder. 6th rounder Raynel Delgado is a switch hitting high schooler from Florida who generates power from a big, powerful swing that causes his eye level to change as he swings. He was drafted as a third baseman but his position at the next level remains unclear; the bat is the attractive piece here, and the ceiling is high if Cleveland can streamline his swing. He did sign for $900,000, which is $664,400 over slot. I'm not sure 19th rounder Antoine Duplantis signs here, possibly heading back to LSU for his senior year. He's well known to college fans as a three year starter in Baton Rouge, putting up three very similar seasons that combined for a .324/.381/.420 slash line, six home runs, 51 stolen bases, and an 88/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 203 games. He's a contact hitter with the ability to get on base, steal bases, and play solid defense in center field. 23rd rounder Cody Farhat is another well-known college performer, manning center field for Texas Tech. He was better as a sophomore (.343/.438/.569, 3 HR, 21/16 K/BB) than as a junior (.294/.420/.443, 5 HR, 36/31 K/BB), but the biggest value is in his glove, as he is an excellent defensive center fielder.
Monday, June 4, 2018
2018 MLB Draft: Top 10 High School RHP's
There has never been a right handed high school pitcher taken first overall, and that won't change this year, but there are plenty of guys who have stepped forward this spring and are pushing there way up into the first round. Georgia, Florida, and Texas are very well represented here, combining for eight of the top ten. You'll also notice that the shortest of the bunch stands 6'2" and that all of them can get into the mid 90's with ease.
1. Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
A breakout candidate to start the season, Stewart indeed broke out in a big way and pushed himself from the back of the first round all the way into possibly the top ten or even top five picks. He stands 6'6", and with a very deliberate delivery with long arm action, the ball just seems to jump out of his hand. He can run that fastball into the mid and even upper 90's, contrasting it with a big power curveball that gives hitters a different look than the sliders that are becoming more and more common. His changeup is coming along, but with that plus-plus fastball/curve combination, he's got plenty for an 18 year old high school senior. He's committed to Mississippi State but won't get there, looking to come off the board in the top ten picks.
2. Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
Winn is another riser, jumping from borderline first rounder to potential top ten pick. The 6'2" righty has bumped his fastball up to the low to mid 90's while sharpening his slider, and while his stuff isn't as explosive as Stewart's, his delivery is cleaner and he offers better control. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, one who already looks like a mid-rotation starter, and he's less of a bust candidate than most high school right handers. He also is known to have a very good work ethic, which is always a big bonus. He's committed to TCU but probably won't be around once the middle of the first round passes.
3. Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
The second straight Cole W. on this list, Wilcox has had a very good spring and has moved himself up draft boards in the process. Standing 6'5", he now works in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 a few times, and his changeup is extremely advanced for a high school pitcher. His slider is just decent, but it looks good at times and with pro coaching should become more consistently above average. Despite a weird delivery that includes a lot of moving parts and that will have to be altered, he throws plenty of strikes and is very polished for his age. He is old for his class, turning 19 in July, but that is okay given his polish. He's committed to Georgia and supposedly has a high price tag, but if teams are willing to pay up, he should be signable in that mid first round range.
4. Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
Rocker jumped onto the radar early, and though his stock has faded a little bit this spring, especially with a rough start against Wilcox at the end of the season, he still projects as a first round arm. The huge 6'5", 250 pound righty can run his fastball into the upper 90's and typically sits in the mid 90's with a wipeout slider. He usually has good command, but it can be inconsistent, as with his mechanics, and he carries considerable risk. However, if everything breaks right, he has ace potential. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
5. Ethan Hankins (Forsythe Central HS, GA)
Hankins marks the third straight North Georgia arm and the second straight Vanderbilt commit who has seen his stock drop this spring. Hankins has the best fastball in the entire draft class, throwing it in the mid 90's and running it up to 98, and it runs so much that he should be able to just blow it by hitters all the way up to the mid-minors. He also has a very good changeup that makes his fastball even more unhittable, though his slider has been down this spring and he'll need to refine it further if he wants to have any success as a starting pitcher. The big question mark for him, though, is health, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and took a while to look right, even after returning from it. If he blows out his shoulder, that could be a career changer, and not in a good way. He is a wild card in terms of where he will be drafted, possibly coming off the board as early as the middle of the first round but also possibly falling to the beginning of the second round and signing an over-slot deal.
6. Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
Like Hankins, Denaburg has also missed time this spring with injuries, but they're not as serious. He's a 6'3" righty with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and a curveball with good shape, though he'll need to improve its consistency. He's ultra-athletic, finding success as a hitter as well as a punter and kicker in football, so once he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to incorporate that athleticism into even better results. He's a bit raw mechanically, which is understandable. Because he's committed to Florida for both baseball and football, he'll be a tough sign, but teams like him and he could go as high as the middle of the first round.
7. Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
Rodriguez has been yet another riser this spring, showing up in better shape and with as much arm strength as anybody in the class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but he has run it up to 98 and its heavy life generates plenty of ground balls. His hard biting slider gives another look, and he can throw a curveball and a changeup as well. He has an arm-heavy delivery that includes holding the ball behind his back for a long time, which will probably have to be changed if he doesn't want to tip his pitches. The 6'5" Texan is committed to Texas A&M.
8. Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
Kloffenstein is another 6'5" Texas right hander, something of a cliche at this point, and while he doesn't throw as hard as Rodriguez, his slider is just as good and he also shows an advanced changeup. He can run his fastball into the mid 90's with sink, and like Rodriguez, he also has a curveball. Kloffenstein is young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and is committed to TCU. He is a teammate of fellow potential first rounder Jordan Groshans and could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the first half of the second round.
9. Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
Hoglund is a personal favorite of mine, one who hasn't gotten as much scouting love as I would think. He's a 6'4" righty who throws in the low to mid 90's, and while his fastball doesn't sink like Rodriguez's and Kloffenstein's, it has plenty of run. His curve is not as advanced as those above him, but I like its shape, and he throws a changeup as well. His command is good, as is his delivery, so all he really needs to focus on are those secondary pitches. He's committed to Ole Miss and is likely a second round pick.
10. Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
Torres is an interesting pitcher, one who is skinny and stands just 6'2", small for a pitcher, but he throws in the mid 90's and can unfurl a pretty good slider as well. He's from a cold weather state and is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until October, so he is a fresh arm that can be molded however his drafting team likes. There is some risk that he could wind up a reliever, but his ceiling is too good to pass up. He could come off the board as an under-slot pick at the back of the first round, but most likely fits in the supplemental round or in the second.
Others: Owen White (Carson HS, NC), J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS), Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR), Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX), Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)
1. Carter Stewart (Eau Gallie HS, FL)
A breakout candidate to start the season, Stewart indeed broke out in a big way and pushed himself from the back of the first round all the way into possibly the top ten or even top five picks. He stands 6'6", and with a very deliberate delivery with long arm action, the ball just seems to jump out of his hand. He can run that fastball into the mid and even upper 90's, contrasting it with a big power curveball that gives hitters a different look than the sliders that are becoming more and more common. His changeup is coming along, but with that plus-plus fastball/curve combination, he's got plenty for an 18 year old high school senior. He's committed to Mississippi State but won't get there, looking to come off the board in the top ten picks.
2. Cole Winn (Orange Lutheran HS, CA)
Winn is another riser, jumping from borderline first rounder to potential top ten pick. The 6'2" righty has bumped his fastball up to the low to mid 90's while sharpening his slider, and while his stuff isn't as explosive as Stewart's, his delivery is cleaner and he offers better control. He's very advanced for a high school pitcher, one who already looks like a mid-rotation starter, and he's less of a bust candidate than most high school right handers. He also is known to have a very good work ethic, which is always a big bonus. He's committed to TCU but probably won't be around once the middle of the first round passes.
3. Cole Wilcox (Heritage HS, GA)
The second straight Cole W. on this list, Wilcox has had a very good spring and has moved himself up draft boards in the process. Standing 6'5", he now works in the low to mid 90's and has hit 98 a few times, and his changeup is extremely advanced for a high school pitcher. His slider is just decent, but it looks good at times and with pro coaching should become more consistently above average. Despite a weird delivery that includes a lot of moving parts and that will have to be altered, he throws plenty of strikes and is very polished for his age. He is old for his class, turning 19 in July, but that is okay given his polish. He's committed to Georgia and supposedly has a high price tag, but if teams are willing to pay up, he should be signable in that mid first round range.
4. Kumar Rocker (North Oconee HS, GA)
Rocker jumped onto the radar early, and though his stock has faded a little bit this spring, especially with a rough start against Wilcox at the end of the season, he still projects as a first round arm. The huge 6'5", 250 pound righty can run his fastball into the upper 90's and typically sits in the mid 90's with a wipeout slider. He usually has good command, but it can be inconsistent, as with his mechanics, and he carries considerable risk. However, if everything breaks right, he has ace potential. He's committed to Vanderbilt.
5. Ethan Hankins (Forsythe Central HS, GA)
Hankins marks the third straight North Georgia arm and the second straight Vanderbilt commit who has seen his stock drop this spring. Hankins has the best fastball in the entire draft class, throwing it in the mid 90's and running it up to 98, and it runs so much that he should be able to just blow it by hitters all the way up to the mid-minors. He also has a very good changeup that makes his fastball even more unhittable, though his slider has been down this spring and he'll need to refine it further if he wants to have any success as a starting pitcher. The big question mark for him, though, is health, as he missed time with a shoulder injury and took a while to look right, even after returning from it. If he blows out his shoulder, that could be a career changer, and not in a good way. He is a wild card in terms of where he will be drafted, possibly coming off the board as early as the middle of the first round but also possibly falling to the beginning of the second round and signing an over-slot deal.
6. Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island HS, FL)
Like Hankins, Denaburg has also missed time this spring with injuries, but they're not as serious. He's a 6'3" righty with a fastball in the low to mid 90's and a curveball with good shape, though he'll need to improve its consistency. He's ultra-athletic, finding success as a hitter as well as a punter and kicker in football, so once he focuses full time on baseball, he should be able to incorporate that athleticism into even better results. He's a bit raw mechanically, which is understandable. Because he's committed to Florida for both baseball and football, he'll be a tough sign, but teams like him and he could go as high as the middle of the first round.
7. Grayson Rodriguez (Central Heights HS, TX)
Rodriguez has been yet another riser this spring, showing up in better shape and with as much arm strength as anybody in the class. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's but he has run it up to 98 and its heavy life generates plenty of ground balls. His hard biting slider gives another look, and he can throw a curveball and a changeup as well. He has an arm-heavy delivery that includes holding the ball behind his back for a long time, which will probably have to be changed if he doesn't want to tip his pitches. The 6'5" Texan is committed to Texas A&M.
8. Adam Kloffenstein (Magnolia HS, TX)
Kloffenstein is another 6'5" Texas right hander, something of a cliche at this point, and while he doesn't throw as hard as Rodriguez, his slider is just as good and he also shows an advanced changeup. He can run his fastball into the mid 90's with sink, and like Rodriguez, he also has a curveball. Kloffenstein is young for his class, not turning 18 until August, and is committed to TCU. He is a teammate of fellow potential first rounder Jordan Groshans and could go anywhere from the end of the first round to the first half of the second round.
9. Gunnar Hoglund (Fivay HS, FL)
Hoglund is a personal favorite of mine, one who hasn't gotten as much scouting love as I would think. He's a 6'4" righty who throws in the low to mid 90's, and while his fastball doesn't sink like Rodriguez's and Kloffenstein's, it has plenty of run. His curve is not as advanced as those above him, but I like its shape, and he throws a changeup as well. His command is good, as is his delivery, so all he really needs to focus on are those secondary pitches. He's committed to Ole Miss and is likely a second round pick.
10. Lenny Torres Jr. (Beacon HS, NY)
Torres is an interesting pitcher, one who is skinny and stands just 6'2", small for a pitcher, but he throws in the mid 90's and can unfurl a pretty good slider as well. He's from a cold weather state and is extremely young for the class, not turning 18 until October, so he is a fresh arm that can be molded however his drafting team likes. There is some risk that he could wind up a reliever, but his ceiling is too good to pass up. He could come off the board as an under-slot pick at the back of the first round, but most likely fits in the supplemental round or in the second.
Others: Owen White (Carson HS, NC), J.T. Ginn (Brandon HS, MS), Jaden Hill (Ashdown HS, AR), Braydon Fisher (Clear Falls HS, TX), Jayson Schroeder (Juanita HS, WA)
Friday, January 5, 2018
2018 Draft: An Early Top 10 Prospect List (1/5/2018)
Aside from a few rumors, there isn't much going on in the world of baseball, so I'm taking some time during this slow Hot Stove period to look over what looks like, for now, the top of the draft. Things will undoubtedly change between now and June, but here are my top ten prospects for now:
1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.
2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.
3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.
4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity, he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.
5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.
6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.
7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.
8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.
9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.
10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.
Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
1. RHP Brady Singer (University of Florida). MLB.com rank: #1
Right now, Gator ace Brady Singer checks all of the boxes of a 1-1 pick, and there aren't many publications out there that don't have him in the top slot. The 6'5", 180 pound right hander had a big sophomore year with Florida last year, going 9-5 with a 3.21 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 126 innings mostly against tough SEC competition. He has an extremely quick arm that produces a hard running, deceptive, low to mid 90's fastball that only figures to get faster as he fills out his lanky frame. His slider is one of the best breaking pitches in the NCAA, as he can manipulate it's shape and speed at will to give hitters a multitude of different looks. On top of it all, he can command everything well and he is said to have great makeup, and looks to have a very good shot at ending up a number two starter if not more. At worst, I think he still cracks the back of a big league rotation. He originally hails from Eustis, Florida, outside of Orlando.
What he can do this spring: Not much. Singer just needs to stay healthy and keep doing what he has been doing, and he'll remain a frontrunner for 1-1.
2. LHP Matthew Liberatore (Mountain Ridge HS, AZ). MLB.com rank: #3
I am a huge fan of Matthew Liberatore, a 6'5" high school left hander out of the Phoenix area. In my four years of following the draft closely, he is the first pitcher to remind me of Clayton Kershaw right off the bat. Liberatore is currently pitchability over stuff, but I can see him having plus stuff when all is said and done, combining the two traits in a similar way to Kershaw. He throws his fastball in the low 90's and has an excellent, diving changeup well advanced beyond most high schoolers. His curveball isn't quite the pitch his fastball and changeup are, but it has good shape and spin rate, and if he adds power, it will be a third plus pitch. Around it all, like Singer, he has great command. His pitching motion could use some work, as he doesn't quite get all of his momentum going towards the plate, but that's fixable. The similarities with Kershaw are there: handedness, build, stuff (Kershaw throws low 90's as well), command, and even drop and drive pitching mechanics. Kershaw's curve has more power and he also throws an excellent slider, but Liberatore is Kershaw lite. He is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: If he takes a step forward with his curveball while maintaining the rest of his skill set, he could challenge Singer for the 1-1 spot.
3. RHP Ethan Hankins (Forsyth Central HS, GA). MLB.com rank: #2
There aren't many publications that list Ethan Hankins as anything but the top high school pitcher in the country, but his ranking behind Liberatore here speaks more to how much I like Liberatore than anything about Hankins. Hankins is a 6'6" right handed pitcher from high school on the outskirts of the Atlanta suburbs, and he has arguably the most electric arm in this draft. He throws a running mid 90's fastball that hits 98 and could top out at 100 by the time he fills out his frame, and unlike most power high school arms, he can actually control it. Like Liberatore, he also has an advanced changeup, though his biggest area for improvement comes with his two breaking pitches. His curveball and slider both look good at times, and his curveball has especially good shape, but they lack power and are average at this point. All of that together helped him dominate the 18 and Under World Cup this past summer more than any other prospect. If he develops one or both breaking pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter, but he has a bit of a lower floor should his command unravel, with his realistic floor being that of a power reliever. Hankins is committed to Vanderbilt.
What he can do this spring: Without improving one of his breaking pitches, he probably has a better chance to go in the 3-6 range, but improving either his slider or curveball to plus could make him the first high school right hander ever to go first overall.
4. RHP Casey Mize (Auburn University). MLB.com ranking: #8.
I promise some hitters are coming, but the top of this draft is just filled with great pitchers. Auburn ace Casey Mize lacks the ceiling of those above him on this list, but he has dominated college hitters unlike almost anybody else in the league. In 13 games (12 starts) for the Tigers this past spring, Mize went 8-2 with a 2.04 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 109/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 83.2 innings, mostly against tough SEC hitters. Aside from Singer, Mize might be the most advanced pitcher in this draft, showing excellent command of a mid 90's fastball, a plus splitter, and a very good slider. The 6'3" right hander is a bulldog on the mound, and though he doesn't figure to gain much velocity, he's excellent where he is now. His whole arsenal, with his command, could play in the major leagues in the very near future, but he has one flaw that causes teams to take a second look; durability. Mize seemed to run out of gas towards the end of the spring collegiate season and was shut down, and when he tried to ramp it back up over the summer, he strained his forearm and had to be shut down again. An optimist could say that professional conditioning regimens could be just what he needs, but the truth is that Mize has not proven that he can handle a 100 inning workload, let alone a 200 inning workload. He has the makings of a mid rotation starter, and if he stays healthy, he is very likely to reach that potential. Mize comes from Springville, Alabama, outside of Birmingham.
What he can do this spring: All Mize needs to to is stay healthy. I have a hard time seeing him go 1-1 no matter what he does due to his lack of a high ceiling, but a healthy Mize who maintains his stuff and velocity all through the spring has a very good chance of going in the top five.
5. 2B/SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State University). MLB.com ranking: #11
Finally, we have the first hitter on our list. The first thing anybody notices about Madrigal is his size: at 5'7" and 160 pounds, he always one of the smallest guys on the field, but Astros second baseman Jose Altuve might be the best thing that ever happened to him. With Altuve proving that little guys can rake, Madrigal's draft stock is much higher than it might have been had he come around a few years earlier. Oregon State was the best team in the country for most of the season, and Madrigal played a huge part in that by slashing .380/.449/.532 with 20 doubles, two triples, four home runs, and 16 stolen bases in 60 games. He also proved to have an excellent approach at the plate, walking 27 times while striking out just 16 times, good for 9.6% and 5.7% of his plate appearances, respectively. Despite his small size, he does have nearly average power, coming from a quick bat that he deploys against a stiff front leg. If he wants to improve that power, he could benefit from gaining more ground with his stride, but a guy his size should maximize his ability to spray line drives around the field, something he does very well. In the field, he's a second baseman right now, though his arm may just be strong enough for shortstop. Either way, he's a very valuable asset, one who should at least hit for average in the major leagues due to his excellent approach. He originally comes from Elk Grove, California, just south of Sacramento.
What he can do this spring: Madrigal likely isn't going to grow any more, so aside from a surprise outburst of power, the best thing Madrigal can do for his draft stock is to keep spraying line drives all over the field and maybe add a few more walks, as 9.6% is good but not amazing.
6. 3B Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ). MLB.com ranking: #4
The players who in my opinion are the best high school hitter and best high school pitcher, respectively, in the class, go to school just ten minutes apart in the northern Phoenix suburbs. While Matthew Liberatore will draw scouts by the dozens to Mountain Ridge High School, neighboring Sandra Day O'Connor High School will have it's own share of scouts to see power hitting third baseman Nolan Gorman. At 6'1", Gorman is a bit undersized for a pure power hitter, but the MLB All Star Game High School Home Run Derby champion can blast home runs with the best of them. He has extremely quick hands that help him maximize the power coming from his thick build, though he does sometimes appear uncomfortable at the plate. This has led to worries from scouts as to how his power will translate up, and I myself have noticed that he gets his hands back fairly late, something he'll have to fix against advanced pitching. When your bat is as quick as Gorman's it's often easier to make these adjustments, but it is something to watch. If all goes right, he could hit 30-40 home runs annually in the majors. Like Liberatore, Gorman is committed to the University of Arizona.
What he can do this spring: Gorman needs to show a better approach at the plate, so keeping his strikeouts down and drawing lots of walks would be good for him. A home run off rival Matthew Liberatore would be a nice bonus.
7. OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West HS, WI). MLB.com ranking: #12
Wisconsin isn't typically a hotbed for talent, but they've had a nice run with first rounder Gavin Lux and second rounder Ben Rortvedt in 2016, followed by first rounder Jeren Kendall (Wisconsin native playing at Vanderbilt) in 2017, and finally Jarred Kelenic this year. Kelenic may be a bit old for his class with a July birthday, but he's a five tool player who could contribute in multiple categories at the big league level. He's an excellent pure hitter, using a clean swing to spray line drives and extra base hits all over the field while knocking his share of home runs. He doesn't get fooled at the plate, and he won't need as much time adjusting to the low minors as, for example, a Nolan Gorman-type. He's also a very good defensive outfielder, and while he may not stick in center, he could provide plenty of value in right. If it all breaks right, Kelenic could be an annual 20-20 threat while posting on-base percentages approaching .400. He is committed to the University of Louisville.
What he can do this spring: Kelenic is a great all-around player who doesn't shine in any particular place, so I think the best tool for him to improve this spring would be power. Listed at 6'1" and 195 pounds, he has a wiry, athletic frame that could produce more than the average power he has now. Some big moonshots in front of scouts could push him towards the top five.
8. SS Brice Turang (Santiago HS, CA). MLB.com ranking: #7
Southern California native Brice Turang has been a top prospect for years, and he could find himself drafted in the top ten picks in 2018. Like Kelenic, Turang is more of an all-around player than one with standout tools, though he's not exactly the same. First off, he's a shortstop (and a good one at that), and he is faster than Kelenic. On the flip side, his bat isn't quite as developed, as he shows a whippy swing from a lean frame but was up and down over the summer. I like that swing, and I think he could hit for power and average in the majors, but it'll take some work to get there. Turang is committed to Louisiana State.
What he can do this spring: Of primary focus for Turang should be to show more consistency at the plate than he did over the summer. That would solidify his ranking in the top ten. If he does that while adding the power I believe he is capable of adding, he'll jump back into the top five where he was ranked before the summer.
9. SS/3B Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL). MLB.com ranking: #6
Nander De Sedas is a high school switch hitter with a good balance of above average power and above average contact, and while it's not as certain as with Turang, he could stick at shortstop. De Sedas has a clean swing that enables him to reach that balance, though his mechanics can get a bit inconsistent due to his switch hitting, which is normal for high schoolers. He gets dinged a little bit due to his early birthday, like Kelenic's a July one, but his combination of approach, power, and defensive value isn't easy to come by. If he has to move off shortstop, he does have the arm to stick at third base. De Sedas is committed to Florida State.
What he can do this spring: Two areas where De Sedas could conceivably improve are on defense and with power. If he emerges from the winter having worked hard on improving his range at shortstop, teams can safely draft him as a shortstop and see him as a future Francisco Lindor (who also attended the Montverde Academy), albeit with less speed. Adding power could also help his bat profile better at third base should shortstop not work out, and his plate discipline would make him an attractive alternative to Nolan Gorman.
10. RF Griffin Conine (Duke University). MLB.com ranking: #19
Former Marlins and Orioles star Jeff Conine's son Griffin is looking like one of the top bats in this year's college class. After a forgettable freshman season (0 HR, .205/.306/.247), Conine broke out in a big way by socking 13 home runs and slashing .298/.425/.546 as a sophomore, striking out 45 times while walking 41 times in 58 games. He continued that production over into the prestigious Cape Cod League, where he slashed .329/.406/.537 with nine home runs and a 43/20 strikeout to walk ratio in 42 games, and scouts named him the league's top prospect. I'm personally a huge fan of Conine, as he generates his plus power from a strong 6'1" frame while keeping his bat in the zone for a long time. He could use to add some more loft, but I like the way his swing has come along so far, and doing so could turn him into a legitimate 30+ home run threat. He's a patient hitter, which enabled him to post on-base percentages above .400 in both his predominantly-ACC collegiate season and his Cape Cod season, but he does also swing and miss quite a bit. That's his only flaw on offense. Defensively, he should be a very good right fielder, showcasing more speed than typical for a power hitter as well as a very good arm. To top it off, he's a little younger than the typical college junior, not turning 21 until July. He's originally from the Fort Lauderdale, Florida area.
What he can do this spring: Conine has the power and he's trending in the right direction, so aside from continuing this trend, I think the best thing he can do is to cut down his strikeouts. 16.8% in his collegiate season and 23% in the Cape Cod League aren't astronomically high as they are, but cutting that regular season rate down to 10-15% could do wonders for his draft stock, as teams will be much more confident that he can tap into his raw power.
Just missed: LHP Shane McClanahan (South Florida), LHP Ryan Rolison (Mississippi), RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson), OF Greyson Jenista (Wichita State), OF Travis Swaggerty (South Alabama)
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