Showing posts with label Seaver King. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Seaver King. Show all posts

Friday, September 20, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: Washington Nationals

Full list of draftees

The Nationals surprised many by going under slot on Seaver King, who saved them over $800,000 with the first pick and laid the groundwork for the rest of their class, which included an extra CBA pick at #39 acquired in the Hunter Harvey trade. While King had the largest bonus and will be the biggest name from the class, perhaps the biggest gamble will be second rounder Luke Dickerson who signed for one of the largest over slot bonuses in the entire class from any team. With a system chock full of outfield depth, the Nationals focused on catchers and infielders early and drafted just two outfielders in the entire class – eighth rounder Sam Petersen and eighteenth rounder Teo Banks. I'm lukewarm on this class overall, which includes some very high variance players like Caleb Lomavita, Dickerson, and Sir Jamison Jones, as well as some lower ceiling, "safe bet" types like King, Kevin Bazzell, and Jackson Kent.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-10: SS Seaver King, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $5.95 million. Signing bonus: $5.15 million ($803,800 below slot value).
My rank: #16. MLB Pipeline: #17. Baseball America: #17.
With names like Braden Montgomery, Bryce Rainer, and Trey Yesavage still on the board, this pick surprised some in the industry but it made more sense as the Nationals saved over $800,000, signing him for just over the slot value of the #14 pick. Seaver King, besides having one of the best baseball names in the draft, brings a really interesting profile to the table. He began his career at Division II Wingate, then transferred to Wake Forest after hitting .399 over two seasons. Any concerns about his ability to hit ACC pitching were assuaged when he smashed his way to a .424/.479/.524 line in sixteen games in the Cape Cod League, success which carried over to a strong senior season with the Demon Deacons. King is listed at 6', 195 pounds and doesn't have much projection on his slender frame, but he packs a lot of punch. The Athens, Georgia native is an extremely aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact regardless, leading to tons of balls in play with low strikeout and walk rates. He covers the whole plate effectively and, as mentioned, had zero issues with the large jump in competition from Division II to the Cape/ACC, so his combination of pitch recognition and bat to ball give him an above average hit tool. Meanwhile, he doesn't look it but there is very significant raw power in the tank. King is mostly a line drive hitter but the ball jumps off his bat like few others in the class, showing plus raw power that plays closer to average or above average in games due to the approach. Key for him going forward will be becoming just a bit more selective at the plate, better finding pitches he can lift and drive while also adding a few more walks onto the stat line. On the other side of the ball, he's a plus runner who has seen playing time all over the diamond. The hope is that he can stick at shortstop, where he has enough arm strength and range to make it work if he can refine his glovework, but he could end up at second base, third base, or center field. Wherever he does play, he should be a net-positive on defense in addition to potentially becoming a 20+ home run hitter with high batting averages and plenty of stolen bases. He had no trouble with the jump to minor league pitching, where he hit .295/.367/.385 with ten stolen bases and a 13/9 strikeout to walk ratio over twenty games for Low A Fredericksburg, but the power didn't show up in the small sample.

CBA-39: C Caleb Lomavita, California {video}
Slot value: $2.4 million. Signing bonus: $2.33 million ($70,000 below slot value).
My rank: #28. MLB Pipeline: #33. Baseball America: #18.
Despite being a college bat, historically the safest demographic, Caleb Lomavita was one of the most polarizing prospects in the first round due to his unconventional profile. He has been one of the better catchers in college baseball over the past couple seasons and at times in 2024 was projected as high as the middle of the first round. He surprisingly slid to the Nationals' CBA pick, where I was sure he was going to require an above-slot bonus, but he wound up signing slightly below slot value which makes this an outstanding pick no matter where you stand on him. In fact, given the signing bonus, I'd say this was my favorite pick of the draft for the Nationals. Lomavita, like Seaver King, is an extremely aggressive hitter that swings at anything and everything, in fact running even higher chase rates and even lower walk rates than his first round counterpart. Also similar to King, he has strong bat to ball ability and limits his strikeouts despite the high chase rate, though he did swing and miss more in 2024 and his strikeout rate jumped to a still-respectable 16.7% after coming in at a strong 11.1% a year ago. Despite this, he has a long history of hitting advanced pitching and slashed .314/.357/.442 over two seasons in the Cape Cod League. The barrel chested, 5'11", 200 pound Honolulu native can really drive the ball too, with above average raw power that he taps consistently in games with his leveraged right handed swing that gets long through the zone and puts nice loft on the ball. Similar to King, if he can get more selective at the plate (and he has a longer way to go in that regard), he could become an all around force at the plate. The upside here is 20-25 home runs per season with decent batting averages. Lomavita is also extremely athletic for a catcher, with solid run times and impressive fluidity and flexibility behind the plate. His glovework itself is a bit raw, but given his physical talent he should be a solid defensive catcher once he cleans that up. The athleticism elevates his ceiling on both sides of the ball and if you can get the approach right, I think he could be a very special hitter. But the approach does need a lot of work. Lomavita hit .213/.310/.246 with a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over seventeen games in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg.

2-44: SS Luke Dickerson, Morris Knolls HS [NJ] {video}
Slot value: $2.12 million. Signing bonus: $3.8 million ($1.68 million above slot value).
My rank: #47. MLB Pipeline: #49. Baseball America: #56.
This was the pick that shaped the Nationals' draft strategy. Scouts had to wait for the North Jersey weather to warm up, but once it did, Luke Dickerson had one of the most impressive springs of any high schooler in the country. That led to a meteoric rise up draft boards, moving from the middle of day two up into day one territory and eventually into second round projections as the draft rolled around, but the Nationals saw him as a clear-cut first round talent and paid him as such, paying him roughly the slot value of the #22 pick to steer him away from a UVA commitment. Dickerson had a senior year to remember, winning both a hockey and a baseball state championship three months apart and once scoring five (!) goals in one game on the ice. He is a powderkeg athlete that has packed a ton of muscle into his 5'11" frame over the past year without sacrificing any quickness, making for a superb package to build from. Dickerson has a quick right handed swing that naturally produces above average power he tapped much more often in games in 2024, in fact tying Mike Trout's New Jersey high school record with eighteen home runs as a senior. With little wasted movement and an accurate barrel, he was a monster that North Jersey pitching could not get out. However, he's unproven against more advanced pitching and if there's one hole in his profile, it's that we don't know how he'll handle the jump in competition. Dickerson is also a plus runner with excellent glovework on the infield, though his fringy arm will move off shortstop to second base. With his quickness, athleticism, and polish, he could become an above average or even plus defender at the keystone. There's a ton of upside here, and the Nationals spent the rest of the draft scrapping together bonus pool space to pay for it.

3-79: C Kevin Bazzell, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: $980,300. Signing bonus: $980,300.
My rank: #90. MLB Pipeline: #55. Baseball America: #68.
I was a bit lower on Kevin Bazzell than much of the industry, but he's still a very nice addition alongside Caleb Lomavita to a shallow depth chart behind the plate in the Nationals system. Bazzell initially enrolled at Dallas Baptist, but transferred out after a semester and didn't play his freshman spring at Texas Tech. He's been one of the toughest outs in the Big 12 since then, playing himself into the second tier of college catchers for the 2024 draft. The Dallas-area native is an elite contact hitter, putting up the highest contact rate of any of the 145 college hitters on the Baseball America 500 this year. I'll repeat that – he made contact with 89.5% of the pitches he swung at, more than any draft-eligible college bat with significant interest. This is a man who never, ever whiffs, especially in the zone, with a simple, effortless right handed swing that just flicks the barrel at the ball and uses his natural strength to send it deep. The power isn't quite as impressive, with fringe-average pop that amounted to just six home runs in 2024. If he wants to earn regular playing time in the bigs, he'll have to find a way to dramatically increase his power output as he switches from metal to wood bats, something I'm not sold he'll do especially in a Nationals system that does not develop hitters well. If he can, though, there's solid upside as an everyday catcher that can knock 10-15 home runs per season with high averages, perhaps something similar to a taller Paul Lo Duca. Bazzell only began catching in high school and is a bit raw behind the plate, but it's nothing egregious and his athleticism and arm strength should hold down the fort until he polishes up the glovework a little bit. The bat certainly profiles better behind the plate than elsewhere, such as in a corner outfield spot, and he should be able to make that work. He hit .273/.433/.386 with a 10/11 strikeout to walk ratio over fourteen games at Low A Fredericksburg, showing off the plus hit tool as well as the questionable power.

4-108: LHP Jackson Kent, Arizona {video}
Slot value: $676,000. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($51,000 below slot value).
My rank: #178. MLB Pipeline: #136. Baseball America: #138.
Most years, the Nationals draft a pitchability college arm early on, especially a lefty like Jake Bennett (2022) and Dustin Saenz (2021). This year, it was Jackson Kent and he'll fit right into a system that loves to develop these types. Kent redshirted his freshman season at Arizona, served as a swingman as a sophomore, then had his best year yet as the Wildcats' ace in 2024. The stuff is pretty average all around. His fastball sits in the low 90's and tops out around 95 with nice riding life, making it a solid average pitch. From there, Kent has a full arsenal of secondaries including a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. The slider is the best breaker with average life and velocity, while his curveball is a bit loopier and serves as a get me over type. The cutter provides a nice alternate look from his fastball, while his changeup is his lone above average pitch with late, heavy fade. He relies heavily on that changeup and it should continue to help him miss bats and work through lineups in pro ball while the Nationals look to bring the rest of his arsenal along. The 6'3" lefty gets down the mound well with an athletic, repeatable delivery that could project a tick more of velocity, pounding the strike zone with above average command to help all of his pitches play up. Kent also has a moderately low release height with solid extension, adding a little extra hop to his pitches. With a durable frame, good command, and a deep arsenal with an out pitch, Kent projects as a solid #4 or #5 starter who can eat innings and pitch in the big leagues a long time.

5-141: SS Randal Diaz, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $490,500. Signing bonus: $420,000 ($70,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Randal Diaz is a nice find for the Nationals if a bit off the radar. He has performed for three seasons at Indiana State and had his best year in 2024, when he was named First Team All-MVC and finished the season on a 32 game hitting streak. Diaz has a strong, compact right handed swing that produces solid raw power without selling out. That simple swing helps him make plenty of contact and produce consistently, keeping his strikeout rates down and his on-base percentages up. While he didn't face the strongest competition in the Missouri Valley Conference, he impressed at the Lexington Regional where he went 7-18 (.389 AVG) with a pair of home runs against Kentucky, Illinois, and Western Michigan. ISU's everyday shortstop in 2024, he was drafted as such and has plenty of arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield. He may be forced to move to third base if he slows down at all, where his arm will play and his more methodical actions will fit well. The Puerto Rican has the chance to be a solid-all around contributor with average to above average tools across the board if it breaks right, showing consistent on-base ability, some power, and a net-positive glove.

6-170: RHP Davian Garcia, Florida Gulf Coast {video}
Slot value: $372,300. Signing bonus: $425,000 ($52,700 above slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Davian Garcia brings sneaky upside to the Nationals, and he's also the team's lone day two over slot signing. Garcia has been all around the state of Florida, having begun his career at Division II Flagler in 2022, transferring to Pasco Hernando JC in 2023, then finally spending 2024 at Florida Gulf Coast where he transitioned nicely to Division I competition. The Tampa native brings tremendous arm strength with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and touches 98 at peak, coming in with lots of riding life to make it explode on hitters. The fastball is his best pitch right now, but he does have a solid slider in the mid 80's that could sharpen up into a real out pitch. Garcia has long arm action that to less experienced hitters could make the ball tough to pick up, though more advanced hitters might get the opposite effect and get a better look at his grip. He has pounded the zone effectively at FGCU, which can be a concern with guys with his arm action, and has stayed healthy thus far, another potential concern. Garcia will have to continue to hold both his command and his health together with the larger workload in pro ball, and the Nationals will look to help him refine his secondary stuff as well. The arm strength and plus fastball give him plenty to work off, and he's also young for the class and won't turn 21 until October. Garcia has a very good shot to be the best pitcher in this Nationals draft class when it's all said and done.

7-200: RHP Robert Cranz, Oklahoma State {video}
Slot value: $290,300. Signing bonus: $190,000 ($100,300 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Robert Cranz marks the Nationals first significant under slot bonus since the first round, and he figures to be the quick moving relief type we know they like. Cranz spent two seasons at Wichita State before transferring to Oklahoma State in 2024, where he finished with a 1.26 ERA and allowed just 25 baserunners in 28.2 innings. The fastball is not overwhelming by college reliever standards, sitting in the low 90's and topping out in the mid 90's, but it plays up with huge riding action that creates a lot of empty swings. He can cut it when he needs to as well, or turn it over into a true slider with late bite. Cranz stands out more for his ability to command and execute his pitches, working up, down, in, and out effectively when he needs to. His feel for his slider is especially notable and will serve him well in pro ball as he works it below the zone or out on the edges to drive chases in short stints. He's the kind of pitcher than can effectively pitch forwards or backwards. The 6'3" righty is also plenty physical and if it weren't for his complete lack of track record going more than a couple innings at a time, you'd almost think he could start. That seems unlikely though, and instead he figures to move quickly through the minors as a strike throwing, high pitchability type with two above average pitches. He already made quick work of Low A hitters, tossing six shutout innings over four appearances, allowing just three baserunners while striking out seven for Fredericksburg.

8-230: OF Sam Petersen, Iowa {video}
Slot value: $230,900. Signing bonus: $230,900.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: #205. Baseball America: #184.
There are some similarities here to Nationals 2021 seventh rounder and current center fielder Jacob Young, albeit with a bit more power and a bit less defense. He's a three year starter at Iowa that was off to a hot start in 2024 before shin splints cut his season short in April, but the Nationals saw plenty to make him their full slot eighth round pick. He has a tight right handed swing that produces fringe-average raw power, enough to keep pitchers honest and slug .579 over the past two seasons at Iowa. There's a bit more swing and miss than you'd like in this profile, but he's a pretty patient hitter that keeps his strikeouts to a reasonable rate and performed well against strong pitching in the Cape Cod League (.297/.412/.369). Overall, he projects as a fringe-average hitter with fringe-average power. Peterson is a plus runner who has stolen 37 bases in 40 tries over the past two seasons and added fifteen more on the Cape, adding an important dimension to his offensive game, and he has a chance to play center field in pro ball. That gives him an outside shot to play every day in the majors similar to Young, though he's not quite the defender that Young is. His most likely role is as a fourth outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, though his below average arm makes right field more of a stretch than center field. Petersen hit well in a brief stint at Low A Fredericksburg, slashing .364/.400/.591 with a 6/1 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games.

12-350: RHP Alexander Meckley, Coastal Carolina {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #421.
Alexander Meckley brings a big arm and a ton of talent to the Nats organization, making for a really nice find in the twelfth round. Meckley is a semi-local guy, having grown up just over the border in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, only about sixty miles north of Washington. He began his career at Potomac State JC in Keyser, West Virginia, where he developed into an ace and earned the opportunity to transfer to Coastal Carolina as one of the more intriguing incoming transfer arms in the country. He started strong in Conway, holding a 2.60 ERA through his first five starts, but allowed 25 runs in just ten innings over his next four and wound up in the bullpen. Meckley has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and can touch 97 in relief, coming in with hard riding action and chewing up bats when he locates it. He adds a pair of hard breaking balls that look like potential above average pitches when he spins them right, though they're inconsistent can get hit when he hangs them. Meckley doesn't kill himself with walks but his control is far ahead of his command, leading to him getting hit harder than his stuff says he should. The Nationals could choose to be patient and stretch him out as a starter, where he'll have to add a changeup and refine his command, but he does look durable enough to do so. The 6'2" righty will likely end up in the bullpen in the long run, where he can focus on his fastball and breaking balls and just gas hitters up. Meckley is on the younger side for the class and turned 21 just before the draft, giving Washington a little extra time to play with his development. Working as a reliever in his pro debut, he tossed 5.2 shutout innings over three appearances while striking out five against four walks for Low A Fredericksburg.

14-410: RHP Yoel Tejeda Jr., Florida State {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $225,000 ($75,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
The Nationals went big in the fourteenth round. Really big, actually – 6'8". Yoel Tejeda pitched one season each at Florida and Florida State, where he combined for unremarkable numbers: 5.74 ERA, 1.87 WHIP, 26/29 K/BB in 42.1 innings. Ironically, he's been much, much better in two seasons in the Cape Cod League (3.52 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 37/14 K/BB in 30.2 innings). Tejeda's fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 97 at peak with plenty of running action. He has a tight slider with nice finish, then adds a splitter that he has solid feel for. Despite pitching at two of the premier programs in college baseball, the Nationals believe the South Florida native is just scratching the surface of what he could be, with good athleticism and an unbelievably projectable frame at a young age, only turning 21 shortly before the draft. Tejeda already has close to average control and as he continues growing into his massive frame, he could wind up with average or better command in time. He projects as a potential back-end starter at peak, though he has little starting experience to this point and will need considerable refinement to get to that ceiling.

15-440: C Sir Jamison Jones, St. Rita of Cascia HS [IL] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $500,000 ($350,000 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #372.
Besides having one of the coolest names in the draft, Sir Jamison Jones also took home the Nationals' largest signing bonus after the fourth round, signing away from an Oklahoma State commitment for early fifth round money. Jones is big and physical, to say the least. Clocking in at 6'3", 225 pounds, he has a big league body that could go head to head with any prospect in the system. That translates to big time power potential from the right side, and he's already making strides towards tapping that power more in games. For now the swing can get rigid and lack loft, but it looked a bit better in 2024 than it had in the past. Jones also has a raw approach at the plate and will need to prove himself better against more advanced stuff, so he may take a little longer to work his way out of the low minors. His physicality translates behind the plate, where as with his bat, he's a bit raw. The Chicago-area product has a strong arm that makes up somewhat for a slower transfer, and he'll need to clean up his glovework handling pro pitching staffs. There's a very wide range between Jones' ceiling and his floor, with the possibility he ends up anywhere from a middle of the lineup catcher to a power hitting first baseman to a flameout who never reaches the majors.

19-560: RHP Ryan Minckler, Niagara {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Ryan Minckler didn't take your typical path to pro ball. He actually grew up in Bangkok, Thailand, then moved to New Hampshire in high school. He began his college career at UVA but never made it into a game, so he transferred to Niagara where he has acquitted himself nicely. Minckler's fastabll sits around 90 but ticked up late in the season, reaching 96 in the Stillwater Regional. He has an average slider with nice depth, but his changeup/splitter combination steals the show with bottomless fading action. He controls the strike zone well and has a chance to start in pro ball with his deep arsenal, physical frame, and repeatable delivery. His newfound velocity will be helpful as well if he can keep it on the right side of 90 over longer stints in pro ball, though the idea of Minckler sitting 94-95 in short stints while pitching off the changeup and splitter seems like a very nice fallback option.

Monday, January 1, 2024

2024 MLB Draft: Ten candidates to go first overall

The 2024 draft season is upon us, and the 76-86 Cleveland Guardians own the first overall pick. Thanks to the draft lottery, with a .469 winning percentage last year, they'll be the best team ever to pick first overall by that measure. For that reason it's a great time to be a Guardians fan, as the team will have a slew of elite bats available to them in a class heavily favoring college hitters. As it turns out, the 71-91 Nationals actually won the lottery, but were ineligible to claim the first overall pick because they picked second last year. At this point, three position players seem to have separated themselves at the top of the draft in Oregon State's Travis Bazzana, West Virginia's JJ Wetherholt, and Wake Forest's Nick Kurtz. Of course, lots will change between now and July, and the gap between those three and the rest of the class is fairly slim as is. Overall, though, the top of the class is chock full of college bats, including the top six players on my current draft rankings (including one two-way player). The top of the high school class is a bit light for now, but that will also likely change between now and July.

The Guardians have shown a very clear draft strategy for a while now, especially in their position players. When it comes to position players, they love three things – youth, a polished hit tool, and the ability to stick up the middle. Fortunately for them, in this year's class, there are a ton of bats that fit those qualifications. Let's break down ten early candidates heading into the season.

2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State. My rank: #1.
Travis Bazzana isn't quite as young as the Guardians typically like, set to turn 22 before the end of his first pro season this upcoming summer, but I would take a long, long look at him if I were them. The Australian slugger broke out in 2023 by slashing .374/.500/.622 with eleven home runs as a sophomore at Oregon State, then continued his white hot hitting against elite pitching on the Cape with a .382/.474/.576 line over 36 games. An extraordinarily disciplined hitter, he walked more than he struck out both at Oregon State and on the Cape, the latter of which is exceedingly uncommon for a slugger. Beyond his trained eye at the plate, he has strong bat to ball ability and his compact strength in his 6' frame gives him at least above average power, likely plus to the pull side. It's an extremely complete offensive profile with the potential for 20+ home runs annually alongside on-base percentages approaching .400. Beyond the bat, he's a plus runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts (88% success) in 97 games combined between OSU and the Cape this year. Defensively, he fits Cleveland's up the middle preference with bouncy, athletic actions on the dirt that will make him a strong defender at second base. There's some potential at shortstop, though his average arm is a touch light for the position.
What he needs to do: Keep hitting, plain and simple. Bazzana already ranks first on my list, albeit by a slim margin. His speed and defense give him a leg up on some of the other early 1-1 candidates, so continuing to hit at a high level gives him every chance to hear his name first.

2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia. My rank: #2.
JJ Wetherholt brings a very similar profile to Travis Bazzana. He's coming off an absurd sophomore season in which he hit .449/.517/.787 with 16 home runs for West Virginia, then raked both with the US Collegiate National Team (.263/.481/.579) and on the Cape (.321/.406/.571). Similar to Bazzana, he's on the older side and will turn 22 right around the end of his first pro season, but also like Bazzana, the bat is so loud that he'll be hard to ignore. Personally, I set Bazzana slightly ahead because he's a bit more explosive as an athlete and a bit more disciplined at the plate, but Wetherholt is every bit the ballplayer that Bazzana is. The pure bat to ball here is absolutely elite, some of the best not just in this class but in the past several classes. In fact, he struck out just once in 32 plate appearances against elite pitching on the Cape, and this is despite running moderately high chase rates. Wetherholt can simply get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it's pitched. While he's not physically imposing at 5'11", that elite feel for the barrel helps his average raw power play way up in games with a barrage of extra base hits and the ability to sneak the ball out to all fields. An above average runner, the Pittsburgh-area product has strong instincts on the bases to help the speed play as plus in terms of its ability to impact games. The speed gives him nice range at second base, though he doesn't quite have the arm or explosive athleticism required to play shortstop in pro ball.
What he needs to do: For me, Bazzana has a slight, slight leg up at this point due to his patience and explosiveness. However, Wetherholt did have a better season statistically than Bazzana did last year and if both repeat their 2023 numbers, it would be hard to bet against Wetherholt. Dropping his chase rate just a touch while proving his defense at second base would likely make him the favorite to go 1-1.

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest. My rank: #3.
Nick Kurtz doesn't exactly fit the Guardians' archetype as a power hitting first baseman, and if the draft were today, I think Cleveland would be choosing between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. However, Kurtz brings the most potent bat in the entire class, bar none, and any minor steps back from Wetherholt or Bazzana could push Kurtz straight to the top of the pack. He's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he slashed .353/.527/.784 with 24 home runs, and that .527 on-base percentage was the tops among all underclassmen nationwide, just ahead of second place Wetherholt (.517). In Kurtz, we're talking massive power. Standing 6'5" and weighing in at 235 pounds, he uses that big frame to generate effortless power from the left side, just dropping his hands to the ball, whipping the bat through the zone, and sending it out to parking lots in all directions. Not just a slugger, Kurtz pairs that plus-plus raw power with an extremely polished hit tool. He rarely chases and draws a ton of walks, and when pitchers come in the zone, his swing is plenty adjustable to be able to reach balls in all quadrants and do damage.  You really have to execute your game plan to perfection, then find some luck on top of that, to get him out. Pitchers did so less than half the time last year. The vast majority of Kurtz's value is tied to his bat, but the Lancaster, Pennsylvania native is more agile than you'd think for a kid that big and plays a very fine first base. Overall, he could become a 40 home run bat with high on-base percentages at peak, giving the Guardians a brand new Jim Thome.
What he needs to do: I don't think there's much he can do necessarily. Kurtz is already the best hitter in the draft, and there's a good chance he still is come July. Many teams, especially the Guardians, will look for any excuse to avoid a first baseman at the top of the draft, so his best hope is likely if Bazzana and Wetherholt fail to take the next step forward in 2024. This is absolutely not a criticism of Kurtz, but more the reality of how the Guardians and other teams view players this far down the defensive spectrum.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
This is the most fun profile at the top of the draft. It's natural to think of Shohei Ohtani when evaluating two-way players, but I really think that comp carries some weight here. Listed at 6'5", 245 pounds, Jac Caglianone is an absolute beast of a man with the ability to channel his immense size and strength into impact on both sides of the ball. He slashed .323/.389/.738 as a sophomore while setting the single season BBCOR era (since 2011) home run record at 33, carrying Florida to the College World Series Finals against LSU. The raw power here is frankly unbelievable. Caglianone has long, strong arms and legs and unleashes them for absolutely towering home runs at an extraordinarily high frequency – he homered more than once every ten plate appearances in 2023. His hand-eye coordination is also extremely impressive for such a tall, young kid. At this point, his approach is extremely raw and will need to be refined in pro ball. The Tampa native employs a heavy pull-oriented approach, allowing him to wallop baseballs into parking lots in right field, and his strength also enables his mishits to go land beyond the left field fence. He's also extremely aggressive, walking at just a 5.3% clip last year and running a slightly elevated 18.2% strikeout rate. He'll have to clean that up if he wants to handle pro pitching, as he's limited to first base with below average speed and the pressure will be on his bat. "CagliOhtani" is equally impressive on the mound, having posted a 4.34 ERA and an 87/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings this past season. The lefty can run his fastball into triple digits with some run and ride, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. His power slider gets into the upper 80's and he can morph it into a bit of a cutter, while his changeup gets nice fade to round out a four pitch mix. At this point, he struggles to repeat his crossfire delivery and that led to a 16% walk rate. Caglianone was very inconsistent in 2023, his first year pitching at the collegiate level, and has not shown the ability to hit spots with any repeatability. Overall, we're talking about the highest upside in the entire draft, upside which will come into focus once he focuses on one or the other.
What he needs to do: For Caglianone, it's pretty clear. As a hitter, he'll need to clean up his approach, plain and simple. That means using the whole field with intention and laying off breaking balls out of the zone. On the mound, he'll need to show a cleaner delivery and take a step forward with one of his secondary pitches. If he can finish that to-do list on one side of the ball or the other, I'd give him a long look at 1-1.

SS Seaver King, Wake Forest. My rank: #5.
Seaver King fits the Guardians' profile to a tee. He spent the last two years at Division II Wingate, but mashed to the tune of a .408/.453/.695 line with eleven home runs in 2023 and it became clear he did not belong at the level. Challenged with a stint in the Cape Cod League, representing a massive jump in competition for him, he passed with flying colors by slashing .424/.479/.542 in 16 games, thrusting himself into the first round picture just like that. This profile is driven by bat to ball. King has elite hand-eye coordination, covering the entire plate exceptionally well to the point where he almost never swings through a hittable pitch. Even after jumping from DII to Cape Cod League pitching, he ran just a 12.9% strikeout rate at the latter. At present, he's a very aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact on balls out of the zone as well, so he rarely walks, though in the small sample his walk rate jumped from 7.3% at Wingate to 10% on the Cape. It will be very interesting to see how King's approach develops at Wake Forest, where he'll face stronger pitching with better scouting reports and won't be able to get away with chasing as often as he does. The Athens, Georgia native is not overly physical at a listed 6', 190 pounds, but he shows a very quick bat from the right side and shows some sneaky power, especially to the pull side. His present approach, which seems unlikely to change, is more geared towards lashing hard line drives to all fields so he likely tops out around 15-20 home runs per season. Beyond the bat, King is a plus runner with nice range on the infield, and with an arm a tick better than that of Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt, he has a better shot to play shortstop at the big league level.
What he needs to do: King is transferring up from Division II to the ACC. He'll need to control the strike zone a little bit better against better stuff, and an uptick to fringe average or average power would be nice as well. If he can continue hitting like he did on the Cape, getting on base at a high clip while showing some power, it will be hard for Cleveland to pass up a potential high average, speedy shortstop.

OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina. My rank: #6.
So far, every player on this list is coming off a monster season, but Vance Honeycutt isn't quite in the same boat. He took the ACC by storm with a strong freshman season in 2022, but regressed to slash just .257/.418/.492 with 12 home runs as a sophomore in 2023. However, he has as much upside as any player in this class and could easily swing his way to the first overall selection if everything comes together. Ideally built with an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame, he's plenty strong already and figures to get even stronger as he fills out. Honeycutt employs a lightning quick right handed swing and shows the ability to elevate with authority, helping him project for plus power in pro ball. He also employs a very selective approach and forces pitchers to come to him, though his pure feel for the barrel leaves some to desired and represents the biggest hole in his game. The North Carolina native really shored up his approach in 2023 but didn't hit for nearly as much impact, watching his slugging percentage drop from .672 to .492. A plus runner, he is a fearless defender in center field who made numerous highlight reel catches at the wall last year. Between his speed, his polish in the grass, and his plus arm, he has a shot to contend for Gold Gloves in center field.
What he needs to do: The road for Honeycutt is clear. He needs to find a way to make more contact in the zone while maintaining his power, which can be a tricky task. If he can do that, though, he has All Star upside as a Gold Glove center fielder who hits for power and steals bases at a high clip.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #7.
At this point last year, Chase Dollander was the consensus top pitching prospect in the country. This year, no single pitcher has separated himself from the pack, and there is a group of three to four college arms that all find themselves more or less in the same tier. Chase Burns has the slightest of edges in that group right now, and I also think he's the most likely to both earn his way to the top and also fit in with Cleveland's plans. Burns was a big name prospect coming out of the Nashville area in 2021, but made it to campus at Tennessee and made an immediate impact, putting up a 3.54 ERA and a 217/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings during his two seasons in Knoxville. Transferring across the Smokies to Wake Forest, he could take another step forward in the program's famous pitching lab that has given us first rounders Rhett Lowder, Jared Shuster, and Ryan Cusick among many other success stories. While Burns is power over polish, he's steadily improving in the latter department and would fit well in Cleveland. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and regularly reaches triple digits, enough to blow hitters away even when he doesn't locate it precisely. The real story here is an absolute banger of a slider, which peaks its head into the low 90's with nasty late bite to make hitters look just straight up silly. Mostly just a fastball/slider guy for now, he's beginning to incorporate his curveball and changeup into his arsenal more and I expect those to take a larger role now in the Wake system. The 6'4" righty smoothed out his delivery nicely at Tennessee since looking a bit relieverish as a high schooler, and the result has been a consistent barrage of strikes. He's a bit lacking when it comes to in-zone command, but when your fastball touches triple digits and your slider sits around 90, just getting it in the zone is often good enough. Anybody who throws as hard as he does is always an injury question mark, though he otherwise appears durable.
What he needs to do: The fastball and slider are there. Now, he needs to show he can effectively work deeper into his arsenal by incorporating that curveball and changeup. Burns also needs to fine tune his command a bit to land in Cleveland, as pounding the strike zone like he does will be enough to get him to the big leagues but better in-zone command will make him an ace.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #9.
Hagen Smith, like Chase Burns, was a well-known prep coming out of the East Texas high school ranks in 2021 and made it to campus in the SEC, and now he joins Burns in that top tier of arms in 2024. While he hasn't quite put it all together yet, he has turned in two very solid seasons in the Razorbacks rotation and brings some of the loudest upside in the class to 2024. The fastball has been steadily ticking up for a while now, typically parking in the low to mid 90's last spring and reportedly reaching triple digits in the fall. He's still learning to harness his slider, but his best ones have late, nasty, two-plane bite that makes it easy to project as a plus pitch. Similarly, Smith's splitter is a bit less consistent than his slider, but it too shows above average upside. The 6'3" lefty comes from a lower slot with an unconventional delivery, providing some deception and giving his fastball tough plane to go with some run and ride. That delivery, which features heavy drop and drive and somewhat of a stabby arm action, has led to below average command to this point. Given the fact that he has made 26 starts and thrown 149 innings over his first two years in Fayetteville while showing a solid 4.17 ERA and a 199/88 strikeout to walk ratio, it hasn't held him back yet, and he has every opportunity to make further progress as he settles into his draft year. If he can fine tune his command closer to average, he has real ace upside with three potential above average to plus pitches. The fact that he won't turn 21 until the end of his first pro season will also certainly look good in the Guardians' age-friendly draft model.
What he needs to do: Smith is already touching triple digits while showing off a banger slider, and he's proven he can hold his stuff deep into starts and over a long season. At this point, only his command is holding him back from ascending to the top of the draft. Cut that 13.5% walk rate down to around 7-8% and he'll be in business.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank: #10.
The Guardians love preps, especially prep bats, but none have separated themselves into the elite tier quite yet. As it stands, Konnor Griffin is the closest. Formerly a member of the 2025 class, he was extremely old for a high school junior so he reclassified to the 2024 class so he could compete with peers his age. Standing 6'4", 205 pounds, he's already built like a grown man and has the ideal frame to tack on significant additional strength. He generates huge bat speed from the right side to produce above average power at present, and it will almost certainly grow into plus as he matures. His hit tool is a bit less consistent, as the swing can get long at times, but he takes good at bats and he has been making more and more contact as he's settled in against strong competition on the showcase circuit. Meanwhile, Griffin is an athletic beast with plus speed and a plus arm that play well in the outfield, giving him a shot to be an above average center fielder down the line. There are some similarities Benny Montgomery and Zac Veen here, though he's more polished than the former and quicker and more athletic (and more right handed) than the latter. Between his youth, projection, and ability to stick up the middle, Griffin checks a lot of boxes the Guardians look for, though they do prefer hit-over-power to power-over-hit.
What he needs to do: The only thing Griffin is missing in his profile is a consistent hit tool, so if he can come out showing less in-zone swing and miss while continuing to tap his power in games, he should absolutely be in contention for the first overall pick.

SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI]. My rank: #15.
I'll slip Caleb Bonemer in as the dark horse candidate. Generally considered more of a mid to back of the first round talent at this point, Bonemer likely wouldn't be under consideration for Cleveland if the draft was today, but he has a chance to hit his way there this spring a la Jackson Holliday. In fact, Bonemer is already trending hard in the right direction. Not widely known to national audiences at this time last year, he was one of the top performers on the summer showcase circuit, especially later on once he got settled in. Not huge at six feet tall, he can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them for above average power and he should grow into plus power as he fills out. The Lansing-area native also makes plenty of contact in the zone, especially for a cold weather bat, though there are holes in his approach that were exposed a bit by advanced pitching. Still, he's getting better and better in that regard and it's the belief of most scouts that he just needs more exposure. Meanwhile, the Guardians will love his potential to stick up the middle. He's a plus runner with the athleticism and arm strength to stick at shortstop, though if he slows down at all he may be forced to third base, especially in a Cleveland system that always seems to be flush with shortstops. The upside here is that of a 25 home run, moderate on-base bat that can stick at shortstop and swipe a few bags in the process.
What he needs to do: Bonemer is farther away from the 1-1 slot than the other nine names on this list. He won't face extremely high level competition in central Michigan, but if he continues to grow into his power while controlling the strike zone a bit better, Jackson Holliday provides a nice blueprint for his ascent. Holliday was a more advanced hitter at this stage, but Bonemer is more physical and both play off the beaten path a little (Holliday played in Stillwater, Oklahoma).

Other options
RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa (#8)
OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern (#11)
OF Charlie Condon, Georgia (#12)
OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M (#14)
OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] (#17)