Affiliates: AAA Colorado Springs Sky Sox*, AA Biloxi Shuckers, High A Carolina Mudcats, Class A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers, rookie level Helena Brewers*, complex level AZL and DSL Brewers
*AAA affiliate will move from Colorado Springs, CO to San Antonio, TX and rookie affiliate will move from Helena, MT to Colorado Springs, CO in 2019
The Headliner: 2B Keston Hiura
22 year old Keston Hiura isn't exactly an exciting, high ceiling prospect, but he's a high floor guy who leaves little doubt that he will be a productive major league regular in the near future. After slashing an insane .442/.567/.693 in his junior season at UC Irvine in 2017 and .371/.422/.611 in his pro debut that year, he took well to a fairly aggressive assignment to High A Carolina in 2018 by slashing .320/.382/.529, earning a promotion to AA Biloxi in his first full pro season and slashing a respectable .272/.339/.416 there. Between Carolina and Biloxi in 2018, he totaled a .293/.357/.464 line with 13 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 103/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games, showing an extremely balanced offensive skill set overall. He makes consistent hard contact and sprays line drives all over the field, giving him plenty of gap power (he hit 34 doubles and five triples in 2018 too) and sometimes enough to get it over the wall. Defensively, he's just decent at second base, giving him what I see as a perfect comp to a right handed hitting Daniel Murphy. Both are plus-plus hitters who can muscle the ball over the fence while holding their own at second base, and I would not be surprised to see Hiura put up very similar numbers to Murphy. The Brewers don't really have a set starting second baseman, so while I think it is unlikely that Hiura breaks camp with the Crew, he could be up in the majors at some point in 2019 with nobody blocking him.
High Minors Hitters: OF Corey Ray, SS Mauricio Dubon, C Jacob Nottingham, 3B Lucas Erceg, 1B Jake Gatewood, and OF Troy Stokes Jr.
The Brewers have a nice mix of talent up in the high minors with outfielders, infielders, and even a catcher. There's power, speed, and some on-base ability, though beyond the aforementioned Keston Hiura, there's not much impact talent here after Corey Ray. We'll start there with 24 year old Corey Ray, not to be confused with Royals pitching prospect Corey Ray. The Brewers' Ray had a power breakout in 2018, slashing .239/.323/.477 with 27 home runs, 37 stolen bases, and a 176/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 135 games at AA Biloxi. The scouting report pretty much follows the numbers; he has a sweet swing that produces more power than you'd expect from a six footer, he draws his share of walks, and his plus speed helps him steal plenty of bases and play a pretty good center field. However, as he did in college, he struggles with contact and strikes out at a very high rate. The high strikeout rate has kept his batting average down in the minors, which is a big "so what?" because he draws plenty of walks and hits for power, but that whiff tendency will sap his production in the major leagues if he doesn't get it under control. His ability to make adjustments and recognize major league pitches will determine whether he joins Hiura as an impact player in a Mike Cameron sense on the Brewers teams of the early 2020's or if he ends up a fourth outfielder "almost-was" type of player. Moving up to AAA, 24 year old Mauricio Dubon slashed .343/.348/.574 with four home runs, six stolen bases, and a 19/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 games at hitter-friendly AAA Colorado Springs before a torn ACL ended his season in early May. He's a plus hitter that limits his strikeouts and who should have no problem putting major league pitches in play, and he's patient enough that he should be able to post pretty good on-base percentages in the .350 range. On the flip side, his power is mostly to the gaps, where he uses his speed to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Defensively, he's capable of handling shortstop, but just how much punch he can show with the bat in the majors will determine whether he is double play partners with Keston Hiura or just a utility infielder. 23 year old Jacob Nottingham has been a prospect for so long that after he was drafted in the sixth round in 2013 out of high school in California, he was involved in the Scott Kazmir trade of 2015 and the Khris Davis trade of 2016. In 2018, he slashed .281/.347/.528 with ten home runs and a 59/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at Colorado Springs, which is more good than great when you consider his home ballpark. His bat has been very inconsistent over the years, as he looks like a guy who could put up the above slash line in the majors on the right day but one that would get eaten alive on the wrong day. Defensively, the glove has come along to the point where he will stick behind the plate, and at this point the development of his bat will determine whether he starts or ends up a backup. The fact that there are seemingly fewer and fewer capable big league catchers to go around does work in his favor. Moving back down to AA, 23 year old Lucas Erceg slashed .248/.306/.382 with 13 home runs and an 82/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at Biloxi, though you can project better numbers in the future if you squint a little. He's got good power, a good approach, and can elevate the ball, but for now it has just added up to an average overall package at the plate. A few adjustments could make him a Travis Shaw-like hitter, but of course those adjustments can be easier said than done. Defensively, his cannon arm makes him a positive presence at third base, and the Brewers just hope the bat comes along in 2019. Across the diamond at first base, 23 year old Jake Gatewood slashed .244/.302/.466 with 19 home runs and a 114/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 games for Biloxi, and he finds himself in somewhat of a similar position to Erceg. Erceg is a better pure hitter, but the 6'5" Gatewood has more power projection and could pass Erceg as a prospect if he can hone in his approach in 2019. Becoming more selective at the plate and recognizing pitches better could help Gatewood get to his big raw power more often, and he's moving in the right direction which should give the Brewers hope. Defensively, he's just a first baseman but the glove and arm are both good enough there that he can still contribute. Lastly, 22 year old Troy Stokes Jr. is basically Corey Ray-lite (though he bats right handed), having slashed .233/.343/.430 with 19 home runs, 19 stolen bases, and a 147/65 strikeout to walk ratio over 129 games at Biloxi. Like Ray, he's a little guy (just 5'8") who uses his athleticism to hit for more power than you'd expect, steals plenty of bases, and strikes out too much. He's a patient hitter who draws enough walks to offset his low batting averages, though despite his speed, he's not great defensively and probably ends up in left field. Overall, it's a fourth outfield projection, but a fun one.
Mid Minors Hitters: OF Tristen Lutz, C Mario Feliciano, C Payton Henry, and 1B Chad McClanahan
There's more pitching depth than hitting depth in the middle of the system, but there are still a couple of interesting names to track that spent parts or all of 2018 in A ball, all of which were products of the 2016 draft out of high school. 20 year old Tristen Lutz (competitive balance, 34th overall) is likely the best prospect in that group, coming off a season where he slashed .245/.321/.421 with 13 home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 139/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Class A Wisconsin. Right now, he shows a good all around game with no standout tool except perhaps his strong arm from the outfield, but he also shows few weaknesses and has the potential to develop parts of his game further. He's strong and should develop more power in the coming seasons, with the ultimate projection of 20-30 home runs per season looking very possible. Unlike a lot of power hitters, he's not slow and can play a solid right field, though he figures to lose a step as he gains strength. His one weakness right now is his tendency to swing and miss, as his high strikeout totals have suppressed his production and will make it somewhat of an uphill climb as he moves through the minors. With more work on his contact ability, he could become a solid regular for the Brewers down the line. 20 year old Mario Feliciano (competitive balance, 75th overall) missed time with injuries this season and slashed just .213/.291/.331 with three home runs and a 62/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games between High A Carolina and complex level rehab, making 2019 a lost season for the otherwise promising prospect. He's extremely advanced for his age and should be able to stick behind the plate, and he'll play all of 2019 at just 20 years old while getting another shot at High A. With his offensive track record at any other position, I probably wouldn't mention him, but catchers are hard to come by and he reached High A at 19 years old, so he's still worth keeping an eye on. 21 year old Payton Henry (sixth round) is another catching prospect worth keeping an eye on, as he slashed .234/.327/.380 with ten home runs and a 124/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 98 games at Wisconsin in 2018. Despite being nearly a year and a half older than Feliciano, is bat is in pretty much the same spot, if with a little more power and a little less plate discipline, and his defense is coming along to where he should stick behind the plate. Feliciano has more time to develop and has already tasted High A, but Henry won't be coming off a lost season and it should be interesting to see who moves ahead. Lastly, 21 year old Chad McClanahan (11th round) has moved along slowly, just tasting Class A this year as he slashed .263/.347/.452 with nine home runs and an 88/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games between rookie level Helena and Wisconsin. He was much better at Helena (.301/.382/.541) than Wisconsin (.171/.261/.237), a breakdown in his plate discipline showing why the Brewers have been cautious about promoting him. At 6'5", he has some of the best raw power projection in the system, but the Brewers are continuing to work with him on his pitch recognition and plate discipline. This gives him a wide range of potential outcomes, with the possibility that he figures it all out and becomes a 20-30 homer bat, or the possibility that he flares out in A ball.
Lower Level Hitters: SS Brice Turang, OF Joe Gray, OF Je'Von Ward, OF Larry Ernesto, and OF Carlos Rodriguez
As is the case with most organizations, some of the Brewers' most interesting talent is down in rookie ball, including one player who could work his way up to being the top prospect in the system by the time Keston Hiura graduates. That player is 19 year old Brice Turang, a first round pick (21st overall) out of a southern California high school in 2018. Turang was actually a very early candidate to go first overall, but a so-so summer of 2017 dropped his stock a little bit, and he never recovered it. After being drafted, he slashed .283/.396/.352 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 34/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between complex ball and rookie level Helena. Those numbers match the scouting reports exactly, as Turang brings an advanced approach, solid bat to ball skills, good speed, and good defense at shortstop. Really, his only weakness is power, as he is very skinny and employs more of a line drive approach right now. His plate discipline and hand eye coordination will help him continue to put up good numbers as he moves through the minors and his speed and defense will buy the power plenty of time to develop, so he has a fairly high floor as far as high schoolers go. Ultimately, he has a Jimmy Rollins ceiling (though he'll probably never match that power/speed combination) and might end up more as a utility guy if he continues to do little more than spray line drives at the plate. 18 year old Joe Gray was the second round pick (60th overall) of the same draft out of a Mississippi high school, and he struggled a bit by slashing .182/.347/.325 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 25/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 24 games in complex ball after signing. Gray is a very different player from Turang, using his lightning quick hands and bat to produce plenty of raw power, and unlike many power hitters, he has some good speed as well. Combine that with his cannon arm to make him an asset in right field and he really only has one weakness as a player; his pitch recognition. His hands are plenty quick enough to catch up to velocity and make adjustments on breaking balls, but he just gets fooled too much even against lower level pitching. He has a very low floor and lots of bust potential, but if the Brewers can iron out that plate discipline and help him get to his power consistently, he could be a special player. 19 year old Je'Von Ward was a twelfth round pick out of high school in southern California in 2017, but he was young for his class and spent 2018 with Helena, slashing .307/.391/.403 with two home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 57/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. He's more of a sleeper prospect with no standout tools, but he handled rookie ball very well at just 18 years old and has the tools to be a breakout prospect in A ball in 2019. With his speed, youth, and all-around skill set, he's one to keep an eye on. Lastly, 18 year olds Larry Ernesto and Carlos Rodriguez just made their pro debuts in 2018 after being signed out of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, respectively. Ernesto slashed .247/.300/.399 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 74/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 58 games in complex ball, while Rodriguez put up a .325/.363/.414 line with two home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 20/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 61 games. While Rodriguez had the better numbers, Ernesto carries the higher ceiling with his power, speed, and projectable defense in the outfield. It remains to be seen whether he can develop his power without losing speed, but he's strong enough and has enough feel for the barrel that he could plausibly keep both. However, he is raw on both sides of the ball (as is expected for an 18 year old) and will most importantly need to improve his plate discipline. Rodriguez is smaller at 5'10" and just 150 pounds, but he has combined excellent bat to ball skills with some surprising gap power, proving he is more than just a slap hitter. He actually makes such ready contact that he rarely walks, but he puts the ball in play enough to use his speed well. Going forward, there is little doubt that he will be able to handle more advanced pitching, with his ultimate projection depending on a) whether he becomes more patient at the plate and draws more walks and b) how much that line drive power can continue to manifest itself at the higher levels.
The Pitchers: RHP Zack Brown, RHP Trey Supak, RHP Marcos Diplan, RHP Braden Webb, RHP Cody Ponce, LHP Aaron Ashby, RHP Caden Lemons, and RHP Phil Bickford
There aren't many notable pitchers in this system, and six of the most interesting are right in that High A/AA stage. Brown, Supak, Webb, and Ponce are all workhorse, mid to back of the rotation starters, though many of the younger guys look to develop differently. 24 year old Zack Brown looks like the most complete prospect in the system at this point, coming off an excellent 2018 where he went 9-1 with a 2.40 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a 119/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 127.2 innings, all but two of which were at AA Biloxi. He throws in the low to mid 90's and adds a very good curveball, and though his command is more good than great, he's a smart pitcher who gets his outs on the ground but who can also use that curveball as a swing and miss pitch when he needs it. At this point, he projects as a solid #3 starter who could be in the majors soon. 22 year old Trey Supak is a big, 6'5" Texas righty that fits the stereotype, throwing in the low 90's and adding a solid curve and change, all of which he mixes well. That led to a 2.48 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 123/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at High A Carolina and Biloxi, putting him in a good position to fight for a major league rotation spot in late 2019 or early 2020. He is a year and a half younger than Brown, though ultimately he still needs to take another step forward if he wants to be more than a #4 or #5 starter. At this point, that's his projection: a workhorse who can eat up innings and keep his ERA closer to 4.00 than 5.00. 22 year old Marcos Diplan is a different kind of pitcher, and he just finished a 2018 where he posted a 4.08 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 117/74 strikeout to walk ratio over 118.1 innings at Carolina and Biloxi. He is much less workhorse and much more projection, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and a great slider, with the only problem being that he doesn't quite know where either pitch is going when he throws them. His delivery is not high effort, but he struggles to repeat his arm slot and therein lies the problem. Getting more consistent with his mechanics and then focusing on improving his changeup could make him a mid rotation starter, but if he can't, he looks like a solid bullpen arm. 23 year old Braden Webb and 24 year old Cody Ponce are both fringe rotation prospects who have a chance to end up being #5 starters or wind up as long relievers, with Webb posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 128/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.2 innings at Carolina and Biloxi and Ponce putting up a 4.36 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and an 88/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 95 innings at Biloxi. Webb is a little bit more explosive and looked very good in a short AA stint, while the 6'6" Ponce is more of a workhorse in the Trey Supak vein. Webb has the stuff to be a successful back-end starter, but his command is so-so and there are pitchers with the same stuff and better command (like Supak). On the flip side, Ponce has the command to be a major league starter, but his stuff is just a little light and at this point he looks more like a long reliever. I like Webb better at this point, as he is a year younger and has a higher ceiling, but both have adjustments to make. Lower down in the system, 20 year old Aaron Ashby, the only lefty on this list, was just drafted in the fourth round out of junior college in Missouri, then got off to a fast start by posting a 3.59 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a 66/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 57.2 innings between Helena and Class A Wisconsin, actually posting better numbers after his promotion (2.17 ERA, 47/9 K/BB vs 6.20 ERA, 19/8 K/BB at Helena). He throws comfortably in the low to mid 90's and can hit 100 if you ask him to, also showing a big curveball that gets plenty of swings and misses. His command was considered questionable at best on draft day, but he kept it in the strike zone very well in pro ball and has a chance to become the best pitching prospect in the system with a breakout in 2019. 20 year old Caden Lemons has a high ceiling but lots of work to do to get there. The skinny 6'6" righty posted a 4.26 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a 28/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings in complex ball and rookie ball in Helena with the Brewers focusing more on practice than in-game reps. Lemons throws in the low 90's but it is easy to envision more velocity once he fills out his frame, and his slider has made some progress. He still remains a project, even a lottery ticket of sorts, but the ceiling is high enough that he is worth watching. Lastly, we have 23 year old Phil Bickford, the two-time first round pick (10th overall in 2013 and 18th in 2015) who has fallen from grace after a big 2016 season in A ball (2.93 ERA, 135/42 K/BB). A second failed recreational drug test and a broken hand limited him to 17 innings in 2017, then he posted a 4.67 ERA, a 1.59 WHIP, and a 41/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 34.2 innings at Carolina in 2018. He's a fastball/slider guy who has good enough command to make it work as a starter if he can stay on the mound consistently, but he has been inconsistent even when on the mound and it looks like he's going to end up as a reliever at this point.
