Reviewing the Boston Red Sox Farm System

A few years ago, the Red Sox were loaded with guys like Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi, and Anderson Espinoza, but trades and graduations mean none of them are left in the system. At this point, it's pretty barren and lacks impact prospects, though they do have a nice collection of power bats as well as some live arms with upside. Most of the pitching talent, save for Jay Groome, is closer to the big leagues while the bottom of the system lacks much in terms of marketable arms.

Affiliates: AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, AA Portland Sea Dogs, High A Salem Red Sox, Class A Greenville Drive, Short Season Lowell Spinners, complex level GCL and DSL Red Sox

Power Bats: 3B Michael Chavis, 3B Bobby Dalbec, 1B Josh Ockimey, 1B Triston Casas, OF Nick Decker, 3B Nick Northcut, 3B Danny Diaz, and C Roldani Baldwin
As will be the theme with this farm system, no one player stands out in this group. All of these players come with significant power upside but also struggle with contact, and with Rafael Devers holding down third base, they'll likely all have to compete for the first base job. 23 year old Michael Chavis is closest to the majors, having bounced back from a PED suspension to slash .298/.381/.538 with nine home runs in 46 games between short season ball, AA Portland, and AAA Pawtucket. The fact that he could still slug .538 even after the suspension was a big positive for his prospect stock, and while his plate discipline is improving, he has more work to do if he wants to catch up to major league pitching. There is a good chance he sees the majors in 2019. Right behind him is 23 year old Bobby Dalbec, who strikes out a ton but who seems to defy the odds and continue producing with every promotion. This year, he slashed .257/.361/.558 between High A Salem and AA Portland and was among the minor league leaders with 32 home runs (among 70 extra base hits), and while he had a nice 12.2% walk rate, his strikeout rate was a troubling 32.4%. It seems that should cause problems at AA and AAA, but he fared well enough in his taste of AA this year from a production standpoint (.261/.323/.514, 37.1% K rate) that one could envision an Aaron Judge-lite scenario where he continues to produce even with mounting strikeout totals up the ladder, though probably not at Judge's levels. A third 23 year old, Josh Ockimey, is behind those two on the depth chart and looks more like a platoon bat, having slashed .245/.356/.455 with 20 home runs between Portland and Pawtucket this season. He also strikes out a lot, but he walks a ton and shouldn't be overlooked. Lower down in the minors, 18 year old Triston Casas leads the pack of young power hitters. The 2018 first round draft pick (26th overall) out of a south Florida high school had a season ending thumb injury in just his second pro game, but his long swing produces massive power paralleled only by Dalbec in this system. I have concerns about the length of his swing, but if he can keep it under control and keep the barrel in the zone for a long enough portion of it, his power/patience combination could make him the system's top prospect next year. The swing is just really long and that worries me. Following Casas in the draft were a pair of high school Nicks, 19 year olds Nick Decker and Nick Northcut. Decker, a second round pick (64th overall) out of southern New Jersey, has a similar profile to Casas, while Northcut, an eleventh rounder out of the Cincinnati area who fell due to signability, hits a little differently. Decker has a long swing like Casas, though he isn't as big and doesn't generate quite as much power. Northcut is also smaller but generates his power through bat speed, and while his swing isn't quite as long, he still struggles with contact. Personally, I like Northcut better than Decker as a prospect. 17 year old Danny Diaz slashed .238/.283/.476 in complex ball in the Dominican this year, showing big power with big contact concerns (notice a trend?). He's a long, long way off, but his big power potential gives him a high ceiling. Lastly, 22 year old catcher Roldani Baldwin followed up a great 2017 (14 HR, .274/.310/.489 at Class A Greenville) with a disappointing 2018 (7 HR, .233/.282/.371 at High A Salem), struggling to do much damage against more advanced pitching. There is still some upside in the bat because the power is there, but unfortunately his defense needs work and he may need to move to first base, which would not be ideal for his bat.

High Upside Pitchers: Jay Groome, Bryan Mata, Darwinzon Hernandez, Tanner Houck, and Durbin Feltman
While this group of pitchers is not particularly deep, all five of these pitchers have the potential to take a step forward and become frontline or mid rotation starters (or a closer in Feltman's case). Of course, they also come with high risk, and with only five, the Sox will likely only get one or two impact pitchers out of the group. The highest upside belongs to 6'6", 20 year old lefty Jay Groome. Groome had a chance to go first overall in the 2016 draft, but character questions and signability problems dropped him to the Red Sox at twelfth. He then struggled at Class A Greenville in 2017 (6.70 ERA, 58/25 K/BB in 44.1 IP) before sitting out all of 2018 with forearm issues and then May Tommy John surgery, and he'll miss a big chunk of 2019 with that surgery as well. Groome still has all the makings of a future ace with great stuff and a big frame, but he struggles to control it and hasn't stayed healthy long enough to fix that control. 19 year old Bryan Mata, meanwhile, was spent the year up at High A Salem and managed a 3.50 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a 61/58 strikeout to walk ratio in 72 innings. He throws a low to mid 90's fastball and a great changeup, but he struggles with control and misses the zone quite a bit. The skinny 6'3" righty is way ahead of the development curve and has plenty of time to get it right, and he could be a #2 starter when it's all said and done if he can start throwing strikes over the next few years. 21 year old Darwinzon Hernandez, meanwhile, spent most of the year at Salem and threw a few innings at AA Portland at the end, finishing with a 3.53 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP, and a 134/66 strikeout to walk ratio over 107 innings. The big lefty is older than Mata but throws a little harder, though he does struggle with command. If he can get that command down, he can be a mid-rotation starter, but Mata's upside is of course higher. 22 year old Tanner Houck performed reasonably for Salem this year, posting a 4.24 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and a 111/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings. The 6'5" righty comes from from a funky three quarters arm slot, and while his slider is improving, he still has risk of becoming a reliever. A righty with a similar delivery that is covered in the next section, Mike Shawaryn, had a breakout year in the Sox system this year and Boston will hope Houck can take a similar step forward. He's not necessarily behind the age curve, but 2018 makes his first round selection (24th overall) in 2017 look a little bit suspect. Lastly, 21 year old Durbin Feltman is purely a relief prospect, but the 2018 draftee out of TCU could be in the majors by 2019. He tore up the minors in his pro debut, posting a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 36/5 strikeout to walk ratio in 23.1 innings across three levels, getting as high as Salem. His high effort delivery gives him a fastball that can hit 99 and a devastating slider, but also leads to control problems and limits him to the bullpen. Look for him in the Boston 'pen at some point next year.

Polished Arms: Mike Shawaryn, Kutter Crawford, Alex Scherff, Denyi Reyes, Jake Thompson, and Travis Lakins
While this group of pitchers doesn't have the upside, I think at least one will become a serviceable starting pitcher. I doubt they get more than two from this group (Lakins is a reliever anyways), because even though the upside isn't high with these guys, they don't have the floor generally associated with a team's top pitchability arms. That's just what happens when your system is thin like this. 24 year old Mike Shawaryn leads the pack as the best pitcher in this bunch, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.44 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 132/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 149.1 innings between AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket. The 6'2" righty is shorter than Tanner Houck, mentioned in the previous section, but has a similarly deceptive delivery that makes his stuff play up, and unlike Houck, he can control it well. While he lacks Houck's velocity, he has a great slider and looks like the better prospect at this point. He has the ceiling of a mid-rotation starter and likely settles in as a #3 or a #4. A little down the depth chart is 22 year old Kutter Crawford, who finished up 2018 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 157/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 143.2 innings between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. While the numbers were impressive and he has a deep arsenal of useable pitches, most of his stuff grades out as average and without the deception or command to make it play up, I don't see him as ending up as much more than a #5 starter. Even farther down is 20 year old Alex Scherff, a 6'3" righty who posted a 4.76 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 54/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 innings between Greenville and a few innings down at the complex level. He has better stuff than Crawford and therefore higher upside, though he needs to improve his curveball and his control is not as advanced as Crawford's. He could be as good as a #3 or #4 starter, but the risk is high. 22 year old Denyi Reyes is an interesting case. Over his minor league career, he is 32-7 with a 2.12 ERA, a 0.95 WHIP, and a 286/33 strikeout to walk ratio. In 2018, he went 12-5 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 145/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 155.2 innings between Greenville and Salem, using his command rather than his stuff to keep opponents off balance. Because his stuff grades out as just average, we need to see him above A ball to really know what he is capable of, but he can't do much better statistically than how he has already done. If he continues to hit the corners consistently and keep hitters off balance in the upper minors, that could translate into being a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. 24 year old Jake Thompson hasn't had nearly as much success in pro ball as he did at Oregon State, posting a 5.30 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 96/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 125.2 innings for Salem this year. He had a good combination of stuff and pitchability coming into the minors, but the stuff has backed up and his command has been so-so. While he has a deep arsenal, nothing really grades out as above average, and unlike Reyes he doesn't have the command to make up for it. He was so good in college that you can't give up just yet, but the early returns are not encouraging. Lastly, 24 year old Travis Lakins is a relief prospect who posted a 2.32 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 57/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings between Portland and Pawtucket this year. He's a fastball/cutter guy that can blow pitches by opponents, but while he has improved his command, he lacks a true breaking ball and the velocity can play down due to a lack of contrast. He looks like a middle reliever at this point, albeit one who could make the Opening Day roster.

Non-Power Hitters: SS C.J. Chatham, OF Cole Brannen, SS Antoni Flores, and 3B Brandon Howlett
As you can tell, the Red Sox have invested more heavily in power hitters than contact/speed oriented guys, something I tend to agree with. However, it's a testament to the lack of depth in this organization that there are really only four viable offensive prospects who have skills other than hitting for power, and none of these guys are really that good. 23 year old C.J. Chatham leads the pack, coming off a season where he slashed .314/.350/.389 with three home runs and an 84/26 strikeout to walk ratio between Class A Greenville and High A Salem. He plays good defense at shortstop, which takes pressure off the bat, but while he's great at making contact, he doesn't do much else. The walk rate is low and there's virtually no power, so he looks like a utility guy at best. 20 year old Cole Brannen has gotten absolutely nothing going at the plate since being drafted in the second round (63rd overall) out of an Atlanta area high school in 2017, slashing just .169/.261/.205 with 21 stolen bases and a 90/30 strikeout to walk ratio between short season ball and Greenville this year. He's fast and can draw a walk, but the bat is just non-existent and something needs to dramatically change if he wants to even make it halfway up to the majors. 18 year old Antoni Flores has the highest ceiling in this section, coming off a pro debut where he slashed .340/.435/.528 with a home run and an 8/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 15 games in complex ball. It's best to avoid drawing conclusions from a small sample size in the low minors like that, but he has done everything asked of him so far and could develop into a usable shortstop down the line, though risk is obviously high. Lastly, 19 year old Brandon Howlett was just drafted out of a central Florida high school, and he immediately slashed .289/.402/.513 with six home runs and a nice 41/28 strikeout to walk ratio between complex ball and a few games in short season ball. There were concerns about his contact when he was drafted, but his solid approach has made up for them and so far, he has impressed enough to earn some attention in this otherwise barren farm system. He has a long way to go but could be a sleeper to develop into a usable third baseman.

Reviewing My 2016 Draft Rankings

Intro

I composed my first draft prospect list in 2015, which went 60 deep and, as you would expect from my first time, was filled with holes. I was able to successfully project the success of players like Walker Buehler, Kolby Allard, and Triston McKenzie, but swung and missed badly with a low ranking of Andrew Benintendi and a high ranking of Mike Nikorak. In 2016, with a year's experience under my belt, I ranked 150 players and published the top 100, and while it still wasn't my best work, I was much happier with it than I was with my 2015 rankings. I believe 2017 was the first year where I truly am content, but seeing that you can't evaluate a draft class on its first pro season, let's take a look back at how my 2016 draft rankings have fared 16 months in. 

Linked here are my top 100 draft prospects for 2016: http://www.coverthosebases.com/blog/silverman-top-100-players-in-the-2016-mlb-draft

There will be three sections:

Biggest Successes: Players that I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who, after their first full professional season, have outplayed that consensus and fit closer with my ranking than with most others

Biggest Misses I: Players that have outplayed my predictions, proving my ranking to be too conservative

Biggest Misses II: Players who I ranked well ahead of industry consensus who have not lived up to my expectations, proving my ranking to be too aggressive

Biggest Successes

#8 Forrest Whitley (MLB.com ranking: 12. Draft position: 17, Astros)

I loved everything about Whitley coming into draft day, noting the excellent downhill plane on his mid-90's fastball and his late-breaking, two-plane curveball. Putting an asterisk next to his name because of how high I was on him, I saw the potential to be an ace who could easily wind up as at least a mid-rotation starter. While he was ranked eighth on my list and 12th on MLB.com, he fell to pick #17, where the Astros took him. After a decent debut that summer, he caught fire this year and reached AA as a teenager. Not only did he pitch for AA Corpus Christi just 14 months after graduating high school, he actually thrived, posting a 1.84 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a sharp 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 14.2 innings. I projected him as a potential ace, and he has done everything necessary to remain on track for that.

#11 Dakota Hudson (MLB.com ranking: 15. Draft position: 34, Cardinals)

This is another instance where my ranking, MLB.com's ranking, and the draft position were all in order. I bought in on Hudson's breakout season at Mississippi State, citing his devastating fastball/slider combination despite the lack of a proven track record. Despite being thought of as more of a project than a finished product, Hudson has progressed rapidly through the St. Louis farm system, starting 2017 off with AA Springfield and pitching very well (9-4, 2.53 ERA, 77/34 K/BB) before a late season promotion to AAA Memphis in just his first full professional season. While his Memphis numbers weren't excellent (4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 19/15 K/BB in 38.2 innings), the fact of the matter is that he was in AAA barely a year removed from college and that he has addressed, though not fully vanquished, questions about his durability. He'll need more polish at AAA to begin 2018, but we should see the Tennessee native in the majors at some point during the year, my buying into his breakout year is looking pretty good.

#28 Carter Kieboom (MLB.com ranking: 45. Draft position: 28, Nationals)

This one is different than the first two, because both I and the Nationals saw something in Kieboom that MLB.com didn't. I saw his long swing but noticed that the bat head was in the zone for a long time, comparing him to Anthony Rendon if he could tap into his raw power. Pessimists didn't like the risk he carried, but I was enamored enough with his offensive upside to put label him a first round talent. Like Whitely, he earned an asterisk next to his name, used to denote my favorite players in the draft. The Nationals seemingly agreed with my optimism, taking him in the same spot I ranked him. He has exceeded expectations so far, sticking at shortstop for now despite most prognosticating him as a third baseman, and his bat has translated up to full season ball with no problems. In 48 games at Class A Hagerstown (with time missed to injury), he slashed .296/.400/.497 with eight home runs and a solid 40/28 strikeout to walk ratio despite not turning 20 until the very end of the season. If he can stay healthy, that Anthony Rendon projection could work out.

#34 Alec Hansen (MLB.com ranking: 62. Draft position: 49, White Sox)

Alec Hansen was an interesting case. The 6'7" right hander entered the spring as a candidate to go #1 overall with his mid to upper 90's fastball and solid secondaries, but his command completely dissolved at the beginning of the season and he was booted from Oklahoma's rotation. He managed to right the ship somewhat as the season went on, but his final line was less than inspiring: 5.40 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 75/39 K/BB in 51.2 innings against mostly Big 12 competition. He had the high strikeout numbers, but if he couldn't harness his stuff, that would mean nothing at the next level. He plummeted in the rankings, but I chose to stay on the bandwagon and keep him at #34, 28 spots higher than MLB.com and 15 spots higher than his eventual draft position. I noted that pro coaching had the potential to streamline his delivery and improve his consistency, and so far, the results have been excellent. In 38 starts since being drafted, Hansen is 13-9 with a 2.39 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and most impressively, a 272/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 196 innings. He reached AA at the end of this season, making two starts and posting a 17/3 strikeout to walk ratio in 10.1 innings. The difference has been the return of his control, which was non-existent at OU (6.79 BB/9 in his junior year) but has reached an acceptable level in the minors (3.26 BB/9). At this point, he's looking more and more like the pitcher many thought could go first overall, and #34 could be too conservative a ranking when it's all said and done.

#56 Mike Shawaryn (MLB.com ranking: 139. Draft position: 148, Red Sox)

Mike Shawaryn is like Hansen-lite. After an excellent sophomore season at Maryland (13-2, 1.71 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 138/29 K/BB), he entered the spring as a potential first round pick. However, his junior season was inconsistent (6-4, 3.18 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 97/26 K/BB), and he slipped way down draft boards. He had a funky delivery to begin with, and skeptics saw the regression as a sign that his mechanics wouldn't work at the next level. I dropped him a fair amount as well, but I kept him in the top 60 because I didn't think his 2016 was as frightening as people thought. He maintained a high strikeout rate with 97 in 99 innings (I can't find batters faced data anywhere, so I don't know the K% or BB%), and he maintained a low walk rate of 2.36 per nine. The fact that he had solid control was what eased my mind over the mechanical worries, but it didn't for MLB teams, and he slipped to the fifth round, where the Red Sox took him 148th overall. Through 32 minor league starts reaching up to High Class A, he hasn't been amazing but he has more than held his own, going 8-8 with a 3.71 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 191/55 strikeout to walk ratio in 150.1 innings. Those numbers don't pop off the page, but I do like the high strikeout rate, and he's looking more like a second or third round pick than a fifth rounder right now. We'll have to keep an eye on the 0.80 career ground out to air out ratio though.

#63 Akil Baddoo (MLB.com ranking: 72. Draft position: 74, Twins)

This one is interesting. As of draft day, he was an extremely raw player with poor mechanics whose athleticism and overall trajectory got him noticed. He had big bat speed but looked like he would need a lot of refinement from pro coaching to get anywhere. A .178/.299/.570 slash line in the Gulf Coast League in 2016 seemingly confirmed that, though his 14.2% walk rate was promising. He spent the beginning of 2017 back in the GCL, slashing .267/.360/.440 in 20 games, but he caught fire upon a promotion to rookie level Elizabethton. In 33 games, the 18-19 year old slashed .357/.478/.579, walking 27 times (17.2%) to just 19 strikeouts (12.1%), boosting his stock considerably. Baddoo may have been raw last year, but he is well on his way to reaching his lofty ceiling.

#72 Zac Gallen (MLB.com ranking: 78. Draft position: 106, Cardinals)

My ranking wasn't too far ahead of MLB.com's ranking, but Gallen has been a success despite slipping out of the top 100, so I'll call it a win. He had a solid but unspectacular junior season at UNC (2.68 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 95/21 K/BB in 90.2 innings), relying more on pitchability and smarts than on pure stuff. Cognizant of that pitchability, I liked the stuff just enough to rank him ahead of industry consensus, and he's rewarded me so far. Just like Dakota Hudson, he was drafted by the Cardinals and ended up pitching in AAA by the end of 2017. Through 32 minor league games (29 starts), he is 10-8 with a 2.86 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 136/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 157.1 innings, and he should be one of the first pitchers from his draft class to break into the majors.

#74 Garrett Williams (MLB.com ranking: 154. Draft position: 215, Giants)

This is one I am very proud of. Scouts liked his stuff, but he struggled to stay healthy (31.2 innings in sophomore and junior seasons at Oklahoma State combined) and with his command (30 walks in that span). I was particularly enamored with his stuff, noting an "angled, running fastball, a two-plane curveball that he can mend the shape of, and a fading changeup" (from my 2016 pre-draft notes). I liked his delivery as well, and noted that getting farther from his shoulder injury could help improve his dreadful command, especially as he was on the mound consistently. This all depended on him staying healthy, but so far, he has, and he has thus far justified my extremely optimistic ranking 141 spots higher than he was picked. In 2017, between Class A Augusta and High Class A San Jose in the hitters' paradise California League, Williams went 6-5 with a 2.32 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP, striking out 96 to 35 walks in 97 innings. The walk rate is still a bit high, but it has come down significantly from college and I think it will continue to do so. Watch this one.

Biggest Misses I (under-projected)

#7 Nick Senzel (MLB.com ranking: 7. Draft position: 2, Reds)

This isn't that big of a miss considering I ranked Senzel in the same place as MLB.com, but I still underestimated him. His big junior season at Tennessee saw him slash .352/.456/.595 with eight home runs, but I saw him more as a solid third baseman than as a star. I recognized his high floor, but wasn't sold on a ceiling of anything higher than a solid, Chase Headley-type third baseman. However, he has already reached AA and is slashing .315/.393/.514 with 21 home runs in his minor league career, including a .340/.413/.560 line in 57 games at AA Pensacola. He still may not be on track for that Headley comparison, but he's skirting right along his ceiling and could push it higher into the Anthony Rendon range (like Kieboom). 

#77 Bo Bichette (MLB.com ranking: 90. Draft position: 66, Blue Jays)

I actually ranked Bichette thirteen spots ahead of MLB.com, but also eleven spots behind where he was taken by the Blue Jays. The talent was evident, as he showed great bat speed and bat control, even if his mechanics were a little wild. However, I, along with most of the teams who picked before the Jays, missed the true potential, as literally everything has gone right for Bichette since draft day. Through 132 games across three levels (22 in the GCL, 70 in Class A, 40 in High Class A), the 19 year old is slashing .372/.427/.591 with 18 home runs, 50 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, including a .323/.379/.463 line at High A this year in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Despite being ranked 90th in his draft class by MLB.com in June 2016, he is now ranked as the 25th best prospect in all of baseball, and in my opinion, MLB.com is being too conservative yet again.

#117 Austin Hays (MLB.com ranking: 120. Draft position: 91, Orioles)

Again, I had Hays three spots ahead of MLB.com (as you can see, they're not very good prognosticators), but the Orioles recognized offensive ability that I didn't and took him 26 spots higher than I ranked him. I liked his quick swing but I didn't think the power would hold as he moved up, knocking him out of my top 100. As it turns out, his offensive breakout at the University of Jacksonville was no joke, and he has cracked no fewer than 36 minor league home runs over 166 games so far, slashing .330/.370/.576 in the short season New-York Penn League (38 games in 2016), High A Carolina League (64 games in 2017), and AA Eastern League (64 games). He even earned a September promotion to the big leagues, adding a 37th professional home run as the first player from the 2016 draft class to reach the majors.

#148 Bryse Wilson (MLB.com ranking: 144. Draft position: 109, Braves)

I saw nothing particularly special in Wilson, a high schooler from North Carolina, noting an uneven arm path and what I saw as a below-average slider. The Braves loved the arm strength that I merely liked, taking him 39 spots ahead of my ranking, and it has paid off in spades so far. The slider still isn't great, but they cleaned up his arm path and both his velocity and command have held up, helping him put up an excellent season for Class A Rome this year. Over 26 starts, the 19 year old went 10-7 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP, striking out 139 and walking 37 in 137 innings. There are still questions as to how he will hold up at the higher levels without that slider, and he may still turn out to be a reliever, but there is certainly talent here that I did not pick up.

Biggest Misses II (over-projected)

#1 Mickey Moniak (MLB.com ranking: 5. Draft position: 1, Phillies)

This one is an interesting case. Moniak had helium throughout the Spring of 2016, starting as a mid-first round candidate before hitting his way into the top ten and ultimately top five consideration. General industry consensus never moved him past the 4-7 range, but he was a personal favorite of mine due to his swing mechanics and makeup, so I aggressively ranked him number one on my draft board well before the Phillies buzz. As it turned out, the Phillies agreed with me, selecting Moniak first overall. They aggressively assigned him to Class A Lakewood this year, and the results were underwhelming to say the least: .236/.284/.341, five home runs, eleven stolen bases in 123 games. He may have been 19 playing in full season ball, but those numbers just don't cut it. Unfortunately, when I saw Lakewood play at Delmarva on my day off work, Moniak was on the bench, and I only got to see one pinch-hitting plate appearance (he grounded out). Moniak is far from a bust, but he'll probably repeat the level in 2018 in hopes of adjusting. I still have high hopes for Moniak being a star outfielder in Philadelphia, but other players such as Forrest Whitley, Nick Senzel, Bo Bichette, and A.J. Puk have moved ahead of him in his draft class.

#15 Buddy Reed (MLB.com ranking: 30. Draft position: 48, Padres)

I remained optimistic on Alec Hansen and Mike Shawaryn when their stock faded, and that worked out, but it didn't work out when I did the same for Buddy Reed. An extremely athletic outfielder who slashed .305/.367/.433 with 18 stolen bases as a sophomore at Florida, he regressed to .262/.362/.395 with 24 stolen bases as a junior, looking lost at the plate and leading many scouts to question his floor. I still liked his athleticism at the time, but looking back, the warning signs were there, as his high sophomore strikeout rate (17.9%) jumped to 20.5% as a junior. In his full season debut with Class A Fort Wayne this year, he put up a disappointing .234/.290/.396 line with six home runs and 12 stolen bases in 88 games, striking out in 28% of his plate appearances. His athleticism could still help him adjust as he moves up, but he certainly hasn't justified a mid-first round ranking and probably never will.

#49 Jake Fraley (MLB.com ranking: 89. Draft position: 77, Rays)

As of draft day, Fraley struck me as a high floor, low ceiling outfielder who would ultimately fall somewhere between a Sam Fuld and a Gerardo Parra, with the overall projection of a starting outfielder with speed but limited pop. He slashed a career best .326/.408/.464 with five home runs and 28 stolen bases as a junior at LSU in 2016, showing a quick swing and an 11.8% walk rate (coupled with a 10.5% strikeout rate) that led me to make that high-floor projection. Unfortunately, injuries have limited his time on the field in pro ball, and in the 85 total games he has seen on the field, he is slashing just .229/.319/.356 with three home runs and 37 stolen bases. He spent 26 games in the High Class A Florida State League in 2017, which turned out to be a miserable failure as he slashed .170/.238/.255 with one home run, one stolen base, three caught stealing's, and a 22.9% strikeout rate to just a 6.7% walk rate. The 22 year old could concievably bounce back when healthy, but he has a lot of catch-up to play and just as much to prove.

#81 Walker Robbins (MLB.com ranking: 93. Draft position: 166, Cardinals)

This one is just a straight miss on my part. Robbins was a country strong power hitter from rural southeastern Mississippi, one who I believed could break out with pro refinement once his swing was cleaned up. Unfortunately, a year and a half later, that hasn't happened. Through 70 pro games (30 in the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2016, 40 in the Appalachian League in 2017), Robbins is slashing just .179/.239/.246 with two home runs and a 79/19 strikeout to walk ratio. That comes out to a 30% strikeout rate, a 7.2% walk rate, and virtually no production. Robbins is still just 19 and has time to right the ship, but at this point he is looking like a long shot.