2022 MLB Draft Review: New York Mets

Full list of draftees

As we all know by now, the Mets rescinded their contract offer to Kumar Rocker in 2021 over a medical dispute and wound up handsomely rewarded in the 2022 draft, where they got to pick at both #11 and #14. With the third largest bonus pool of any club, they where able to pull off numerous above slot signings, including three that signed for more than $250,000 above their slot value and a fourth that went more than $125,000 over. Many would argue that they landed three first round talents because second rounder Blade Tidwell likely would have gone in that range if he had been fully healthy this spring. Interestingly, I noticed they targeted short hitters and tall pitchers. They didn't draft a single position player over 6'2" until the nineteenth round, including the 5'8" Jett Williams and the 5'11" Nick Morabito within their first four picks and the 5'9" D'Andre Smith a few picks later. Meanwhile, they drafted seven different pitchers that were 6'4" or taller, led by absolute giants like Paul Gervase at 6'10" and Tyler Stuart at 6'9". Many of those pitchers also come from high slots, putting steep angle on their pitches.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-11: C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech. My rank: #7.
Slot value: $4.78 million. Signing bonus: $5.02 million ($239,035 above slot value).
The Mets immediately flexed their financial muscles early in the draft, floating Kevin Parada out of the top ten picks despite him being connected to teams within the top five. Parada was a famous draft name in the 2020 high school class, where he could have gone in the second round had he been signable, but he was one of the top talents to reach campus instead and that has worked out extremely well for him. After announcing his presence with a strong freshman season, he further built his stock with a massive sophomore campaign that saw him slash .360/.452/.709 with 26 home runs and a 32/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games for Georgia Tech. He has always been an extremely professional hitter, taking great at bats with a keen ability to make adjustments and find something good to hit. Despite an unorthodox setup in which he holds his hands high above his head with the bat pointed down his back, similar to Paul Goldschmidt, he's consistently in a good hitting position when the time comes and he shows exceptional feel for the barrel. Parada's power has continually improved, and now looks at least plus with some throwing plus-plus grades on it. He can crush pitches all over the zone and send the ball out to all fields, giving him a chance to be a perennial 30 home run bat if he reaches his ceiling. Add in the high on-base percentages that will come from his plus hit tool, and he could rival Adley Rutschman as the best catcher in baseball if it all breaks right. However, he is not nearly the defender that Rutschman is and it's no guarantee he sticks back there. While the Los Angeles-area native has worked hard on his defense, he's still not a great athlete behind the plate and needs to work on his mobility. His arm has improved, but he's not going to shut down the running game like some other guys, especially if MLB implements some of the new base stealing rules they're trying out in the minors. Of course, he has the bat to profile anywhere on the diamond, whether that's behind the plate, at first base, in left field, or even as a DH. The guy just hits.

1-14: SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX]. My rank: #13.
Slot value: $4.24 million. Signing bonus: $3.9 million ($343,800 below slot value).
This is another great pick for the Mets, who save over $300,000 on a guy who I think could be a top ten player in the class. Jett Williams is undersized at 5'8", but that's about the only knock on his game and more and more evaluators have realized that as he's continued to play with his hair on fire. He has tremendous feel for the barrel from the right side, consistently hitting the ball hard against quality pitching both on the showcase circuit and at home in the Dallas area with little swing and miss in his game. Despite his smaller stature, he taps average raw power for now and could grow into above average raw power in time. It all comes from a sweet right handed swing with natural bat speed, whip, and loft, making for an excellent all-around package at the plate. Williams played shortstop in high school and it looks like the Mets will give him an opportunity to continue there in pro ball, with enough arm strength to make it work there. He's a plus runner with the springy actions necessary to play the position, though he could also profile well in center field if that ends up being his long term position. In all, Williams could hit 15-20 home runs a year with high on-base percentages and good defense if it all breaks right, and I think he has a higher likelihood of reaching his ceiling than most kids his age. He had been committed to Mississippi State but the nearly $4 million signing bonus rendered that moot. Meanwhile, he's getting his feet wet in the Florida Complex League and is slashing .273/.370/.500 with one home run and four strikeouts to three walks through seven games.

2-52: RHP Blade Tidwell, Tennessee. My rank: #40.
Slot value: $1.48 million. Signing bonus: $1.85 million ($374,900 above slot value).
Two years ago, the Mets selected injured Mississippi State sophomore J.T. Ginn with the 52nd overall pick and signed him to an above slot deal, and they did nearly the exact same thing this year with the same pick. Like Ginn, Blade Tidwell quickly established himself as a premier SEC arm upon arriving on campus, and as a draft-eligible sophomore like Ginn, his name was thrown around right in the middle of the first round. Ginn went down with Tommy John surgery in his draft year, while Tidwell missed significant time early in the season with shoulder problems before coming back healthy in April. Tennessee handled him carefully throughout the season, only once allowing him to complete five innings, and he finished with a 3.00 ERA and a 51/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39 innings. Tidwell is a power arm through and through, sitting in the mid 90's and getting up to 99 at his best. Previously a straight pitch that lacked deception, he's worked hard to add life to the pitch and it now features nice carry up in the zone with high spin rates. The southern Tennessee native adds a plus, power slider with late bite, serving as his best offspeed, while also adding in a curveball and changeup that flash above average as well. It's a first round arsenal when he's healthy, and he pounds the strike zone with conviction so as to limit his walks. His control is ahead of his command, but with stuff like his, it's not a huge deal. The 6'4" righty is very physical on the mound and looks durable now that he's past his shoulder woes, but shoulders are scary and he still hasn't really been stretched out this year aside from one 7.2 inning start against Alabama State in the Knoxville Regional, where he threw a season-high 93 pitches. If Tidwell's shoulder holds together, there should be nothing stopping him from becoming a mid-rotation starter or better. He has gotten into two games so far, one in the Florida Complex League and one for Low A St. Lucie, tossing 2.2 shutout innings with two strikeouts to two walks.

2C-75: OF Nick Morabito, Gonzaga HS [DC]. My rank: #78.
Slot value: $873,700. Signing bonus: $1 million ($126,300 above slot value).
The Mets went back into the high school ranks to grab Nick Morabito here, a spring riser out of the Washington, DC prep ranks that has earned comparisons to James Triantos a year ago, having grown up just one town over. While he's not quite as short, Morabito is also a moderately similar player to first rounder Jett Williams. He has a lightning quick, compact right handed swing that has helped him barrel up everything he's seen lately, helping him potentially solid average power in time despite his 5'11" frame. Unlike many of today's hitters, that swing plays very well up in the zone and he frequently does damage up there, showcasing his strong plate coverage. A shortstop in high school, the Mets drafted Morabito as an outfielder, where his plus speed and weaker arm will fit well. The Northern Virginia native is very old for a high school senior, having turned 19 in May, but the Mets have had success with older preps before (as I write this paragraph the day of Brett Baty's debut) and he already has a very advanced all around game. I'd put a ceiling of 15-20 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and some stolen bases to boot, though the Virginia Tech commit is off to a .125/.176/.188 start in the Florida Complex League with eleven strikeouts to one walk in four games. Not great, but it's just a start.

3-90: RHP Brandon Sproat, Florida. My rank: #131.
Slot value: $691,300. Signing bonus: did not sign.
For the second year in a row, the Mets failed to sign a highly touted SEC righty, though this one isn't nearly as high profile as Kumar Rocker. Brandon Sproat, who is coming off a breakout year with Florida, will return to Gainesville for the 2023 season to build off that success and hopefully patch up the last few holes in his profile. Sproat has always had arm strength, but he was unrefined and struggled to a 6.65 ERA as a sophomore reliever in 2021. He jumped into the rotation this spring and was much better, especially late in the year, finishing with a 3.41 ERA and an 82/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings. The Pensacola-area native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball as a starter and has hit triple digits in relief, though the pitch is fairly straight and lacks deception. He works off a solid curveball that flashes above average as well as a very advanced changeup that flashes plus, giving him a full arsenal that will work as a starter. Previously wild, he threw significantly more strikes in 2022 and that enabled him to stay in the rotation, along with his athletic, strong, 6'3" frame. However, despite the improved command and power stuff, Sproat didn't miss nearly as many bats as you might expect, running a 21.5% strikeout rate that was the second lowest of all college pitchers on my draft board, ahead of only Georgia's (now the White Sox') Jonathan Cannon at 20.9%. He could probably use a more consistent breaking ball to miss more bats in pro ball, but overall he does need to create more deception somehow to miss more bats. Doing that will be on the docket for his senior season in Gainesville, where he will turn 23 shortly after the 2023 draft.

4-119: 3B Jacob Reimer, Yucaipa HS [CA]. My rank: #101.
Slot value: $507,700. Signing bonus: $775,000 ($267,300 above slot value).
The Mets came out with yet another over slot signing in the fourth round, adding one of the better all-around hitters on the West Coast in Jacob Reimer. He consistently hung around that third to fourth round range throughout the draft cycle, building his stock a bit with a strong showing at the National High School Invitational in the spring. Reimer is a power hitter, with very strong feel for the barrel and the ability to cover the whole plate with authority. He packs a ton of strength into his 6'2" frame, and he loves to get his arms extended and drive the ball. You can't quite call him power over hit, because he's also a disciplined hitter that has handled the bat well in his looks against high quality pitching, such as at the NHSI. Together, that's a chance to hit 25-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages if it breaks right, though of course the Southern California kid needs to continue to develop physically and refine his approach to get there. Drafted as a third baseman, he's a bit clunky over there and will have to work on refining his actions, and if he can't, he may be destined for first base where his fringy speed will be a better fit and the pressure will increase on his bat. He had been committed to Washington but instead is hitting .286/.412/.643 with one home run and just two strikeouts to three walks through four games in the Florida Complex League.

5-149: SS D'Andre Smith, Southern California. My rank: #203.
Slot value: $379,400. Signing bonus: $379,400.
D'Andre Smith was a well-known prep prospect coming out of San Dimas High School in Southern California, and his stock has more or less held steady after two years at USC. In 2022, as a draft-eligible sophomore, he slashed .286/.380/.471 with eight home runs and a 44/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. Undersized at 5'9", he shows the ability to do a lot of things well even if he lacks a true carrying tool. Smith has a loose operation at the plate, showing solid gap power to all fields with the ability to really drive it to his pull side, so you can feel comfortable putting him down for fringe-average power. He makes a lot of hard contact and has kept his strikeout reasonably low, but he can be susceptible to breaking balls and it's hard to put better than an average hit tool on him for now. The Mets drafted him as a shortstop, where his fringy arm might be a little bit stretched, but he's very fluid out there in the field and could be above average at second base. I don't think the profile is loud enough to play every day, but he could flirt with double digit home runs and post solid on-base percentages at the major league level, a very strong reserve profile. Additionally, teams reportedly loved his makeup and work ethic, so the Mets are full believers that he'll maximize his natural talent and continue to get better in their system. In his first game in the Florida Complex League, he went hitless in three at bats but did pick up a walk.

6-179: RHP Tyler Stuart, Southern Miss. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $288,900. Signing bonus: $220,000 ($68,900 below slot value).
Tyler Stuart redshirted his freshman season at Southern Miss in 2019, then missed 2020 with Tommy John surgery and pitched just 16.1 innings in 2021. Finally in 2022, he got his opportunity to pitch regularly, and he finished the season with a 3.38 ERA and a 38/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, mostly out of the bullpen. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch 98, coming in with hard sinking action from a high release point. His slider shows potential as an average pitch, while he doesn't use his changeup as much, instead relying on the sinker/slider combo. Standing 6'9", he towers over hitters and puts steep angle on his pitches, adding to that sinker/slider profile, and generally does a pretty good job of throwing strikes. He'll likely continue to be a reliever in pro ball, where he won't need to develop his changeup as much and can continue to just pound the zone with velocity. If he can get up to New York quickly, even Tylor Megill will have to look up at somebody, but he'll have to beat twelfth rounder Paul Gervase out of LSU, who stands 6'10". Following the same game plan as Blade Tidwell, he has pitched one game each in the Florida Complex League and at Low A St. Lucie, allowing one run over 2.1 innings while striking out five.

7-209: RHP Jonah Tong, Georgia Premier Academy [GA]. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: $226,000. Signing bonus: $226,000.
Jonah Tong represents an interesting mid round gamble, as he has a long way to go but comes with considerable ceiling. Formerly a Toronto-area prep, he came down to the Georgia Premier Academy this year and took a step forward, especially in the spring. Tong sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to 96, coming in with a high, over the top arm slot from a crossfire delivery that puts tough angle on the ball. Throw in the riding action he puts on the pitch from that slot and it's a fairly unique look for hitters. He works in a big spinning curveball with plenty of depth, though he needs to get more consistent with it to miss more bats in pro ball. It does show potential as a potential plus pitch down the line with significant refinement. Standing at 6'1", he has long arms and legs to appear taller, though he's still learning to repeat his delivery and needs to get much more consistent with his command. Between his athleticism, projection, tough angle, and feel for spin, there is significant upside here if the Mets can get everything more consistent and help him add a changeup, but there is a long way to go especially for a kid who already turned 19 in June. He had previously been committed to North Dakota State as one of their best recruits in a long time.

13-389: RHP Dylan Ross, Georgia. My rank: unranked.
Slot value: up to $125,000. Signing bonus: unspecified.
Dylan Ross was one of the better JuCo arms available last spring out of Northwest Florida State, but he made it to campus at Georgia and brought with him big expectations. He tossed five innings of one run ball against Albany in his season debut, but left his second start of the season against Wofford with an arm injury and underwent undisclosed surgery that ended his season right there. The final line – six innings, two earned runs, six hits, four walks, six strikeouts. Fortunately, scouts do have plenty of history with Ross given his draft eligibility a year ago, and the Mets liked what they saw then and are willing to bet on him going forward. Everything here is about power. The South Georgia native sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, hitting 99 last year with NWF from a steep slot. He adds a hard slider that looks above average when he locates it, and his hard splitter plays well off his fastball, again when he locates it. Ross does struggle with command, with a high effort delivery that can be difficult to keep in sync. With a big, 6'5", 250 pound frame, he's plenty physical enough to start but at this point has a classic relief profile, where he could touch triple digits and make for extremely uncomfortable at bats. If the Mets do want Ross to start, beyond refining his command they'll need to help him incorporate something softer into his arsenal so that he can more effectively change speeds and stay in control of at bats. Personally, I think they'd be better off just fast tracking him in that relief role once he's healthy, and that could be the plan anyways.

2022 MLB Draft: Ten Options for the Nationals at Pick #5 (April Update)

Before the start of the season, I pulled ten options for the Nationals at the fifth overall pick. While of course players' stocks have moved in all different directions since then, things have remained *fairly* unchanged in terms of who is in play at the top of the draft. I dove a little bit into their draft history in that original article, so instead we can skip straight into who could conceivably be under consideration two months later. Considering Mike Rizzo's recent statement that he wants to shake up player development in this system, it's hard to say exactly which direction they will go.

I'm going to start by making a note on the three players that I see locking themselves in as the top three prospects. Georgia prep bats Druw Jones and Termarr Johnson as well as Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee, in my opinion, are in a class of their own and have some daylight before the next group. That doesn't mean that they'll go first, second, and third overall, but there's a good chance all three are off the board in the first four picks and it's hard to say which could end up slipping through the cracks. If I had to guess, it would probably be Johnson, so I'll highlight him but leave off Jones and Lee (but if any of the three are available, I'd highly advise Washington to draft him). As a quick summary, Jones is the son of Hall of Fame candidate Andruw Jones, bringing a ridiculous combination of athleticism and polish to the field you just don't often see. A plus-plus runner, he has plenty room to add weight to his frame and already shows plus power to go with strong plate coverage and plays a mean center field. Meanwhile, Lee also shows elite bat to ball skills and this year is showing much more restraint on pitches outside the zone, patching up the biggest question mark scouts had about his game. He also shows plus power and is slashing .401/.503/.693 as of this writing.

Below are ten players the Nationals are likely considering, with their rank on my most recent top 75 in parentheses as well as, for college players, their stats through April 17th.

2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#3)
I don't think Termarr Johnson will be available here. One of Baltimore, Arizona, Texas, or Pittsburgh seems likely to fall in love with him, especially if Druw Jones and Brooks Lee are off the board at that point. But if he does reach #5, Washington should be all over him. Johnson is one of the best pure hitters to come through the high school ranks in years, with some calling him the best they've ever seen. He handles the strike zone like a seasoned MLB veteran, spitting on breaking balls and other pitches he doesn't like while consistently barreling up everything thrown in his ample hitting zone. Despite standing just 5'9", his combination of a keen eye and elite bat to ball skills allows him to take big, healthy hacks from the left side, producing plus power. That kind of bat certainly has the Orioles considering him with the first overall pick. The only questions in his profile are size and athleticism, as the other two top hitters in the high school class, Jones (6'4", 180) and Elijah Green (6'3", 225), are freak of nature-type athletes and Jackson Holliday (6'1", 180) has blossomed physically as well. Johnson (5'9", 190) projects more as a steady second baseman who can make all the routine plays, but won't be winning and Gold Gloves. Still, we have plenty of recent history with defensively-limited hitters going in the top couple of picks, highlighted by 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, so I don't think that should be an issue. Believe it or not, he remains uncommitted which conventionally lead you to believe he won't be as expensive as someone like Jones, Green, or Dylan Lesko, but he's so talented that there is bound to be a bidding war for his services and he won't come cheap.

OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#4)
2022: 8 HR, .352/.439/.680, 4 SB, 14/17 K/BB in 30 games.
Cross entered the season as the #6 player on my board and now has hit well enough to push himself to #4, putting him right in range for the Nationals at #5. He's a hard-hit machine that sprays deep fly balls, screaming line drives, and hot shot ground balls all around the field. Even when he swings over pitches, he still pounds them into the ground with such force that they turn into high choppers that take a while to come down. This is a power bat through and through. The Bristol, Tennessee native has always tracked pitches well out of the hand, but an aggressive approach led to a somewhat unsightly 48/17 strikeout to walk ratio last year (a 20.5% strikeout rate). This year, he has done a much better job laying off those pitches just out of the zone and focusing on maximizing damage on pitches in the zone, matching last year's walk total already while cutting his strikeout rate in half to just 9.5%. Now that he has patched up that last hole in his profile, he's a much more complete hitter and the Nationals will likely strongly consider him with the fifth overall pick, perhaps ahead of every other college bat (of which there are plenty) except Lee. His defensive profile has raised this year as well, seamlessly moving from right field to center field and showing the ability to potentially stick there. If his larger 6'3", 210 pound frame does ultimately force him back to right, he's shown enough this year to convince evaluators he'll still be above average at that position.

C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech (#5)
2022: 18 HR, .380/.471/.778, 5 SB, 19/21 K/BB in 37 games.
Kevin Parada just missed this list before the season, but he's improved is stock significantly this spring despite already being considered a consensus first round bat. Always known as a well-rounded hitter with a professional approach and above average power, he's taken a step forward on both sides of that equation this spring. He cut his strikeout rate from a solid 16.9% a year ago to a very strong 10.2% this year, while also improving his walk rate from 7.0% to 11.2%. Tacking on some strength helped his previously above average power play up to easy plus this spring, perhaps double plus depending on who you ask, and it's playing to all fields consistently, not just the pull side. His defensive ability remains a bit of a question mark, with so-so athleticism and arm strength, but he's known by area scouts to possess a very strong work ethic and many are confident he will put in the work to stick behind the plate. He's pushed to the front of an extremely strong college catching class even if he's not a surefire lock to stay at the position, mostly because he's arguably the best hitter in all of college baseball. To boot, he's draft-eligible as a sophomore and younger than the other college names on this list, not turning 21 until after the draft. If the Nationals believe he will eventually improve to an average defender, there's no denying the bat and he could very easily be the pick at fifth overall.

RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#6)
In the past, I think Mike Rizzo would have been all over an arm like Dylan Lesko, and even with the evolving development philosophy in the system, Rizzo will still likely strongly consider the Atlanta-area righty. In a class extremely short on college pitching, the high schooler has established himself as the consensus top pitching prospect at either level and will probably be the only arm in play at pick #5 unless a prep lefty like Noah Schultz, Jackson Ferris, or Brandon Barriera is willing to take a big discount. Many evaluators consider Lesko to be the best prep pitching prospect in years, an honor he has really driven home this spring. The 6'2" righty sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and can touch the upper 90's with ease, while his changeup is arguably the best in the class with ludicrous life. Some scouts have nitpicked his ability to spin a breaking ball, but he has always shown high spin rates on his curve and slider (indicating attainable room for improvement) and this spring they have been more consistent. They're above average pitches most of the time and are trending towards plus. He's a great athlete that repeats his delivery well, fills up the strike zone with all four pitches, and has some projection left to boot. There is tremendous risk associated with high school righthanders and he recently came down with a little bit of soreness in his arm, so the Nationals' scouting department will be following that development very closely. But if they deem him healthy, it's really hard to look away from an eighteen year old that checks every single box. He's committed to Vanderbilt and would be a very expensive sign, even this high in the draft.

2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2022: 10 HR, .379/.527/.714, 4 SB, 24/42 K/BB in 39 games.
If the Nationals decide that all they care about in this spot is the bat, then Jace Jung might be high on their list. After hitting .337/.462/.697 as a sophomore, he's somehow improved in all three measures of the triple slash while dropping his strikeout rate from 17.0% to 12.8% and increasing his walk rate from 18.6% to 22.3%. He's gotten very little to hit all spring, but continues to show an extremely disciplined approach at the plate and when he has gotten his pitch, he hasn't missed it. In addition to his patience, he continues to show plus power to all fields and looks like arguably the safest bet to become and impact hitter in the college class (again, perhaps except for Lee). He plays second base for Texas Tech right now and would be a decent, Daniel Murphy-like defender there, or he could switch over to third base and be good enough there as well. Either way he won't be winning any Gold Gloves, but it's nice to have at least a little versatility from a top tier bat that can stick on the dirt.

C Daniel Susac, Arizona (#8)
2022: 7 HR, .385/.436/.627, 0 SB, 28/11 K/BB in 36 games.
Daniel Susac has followed a very similar path to Kevin Parada. While Parada was clearly the better prospect at the time, both drew significant draft interest out of their respective California private schools in 2020 (Loyola for Parada, Jesuit for Susac) and instead headed to school. Now after pushing their names into the first round conversation as freshmen, both have improved their stock further this spring and make the Nationals' short list after just missing it at the beginning of the spring. While Parada is relatively old for a sophomore with his August birthday and therefore draft-eligible, Susac is the age of a college junior with a May birthday and doesn't quite get the extreme age advantage of Parada, but he's still relatively young for a college-eligible player. He shows plus power and excellent batted ball metrics from his long limbed, 6'4" frame and has been an extra base hit machine in Tucson, tallying 60 in 97 career games so far. While he's a very free swinger, he makes a ton of contact and has still managed to drop his strikeout rate from 17.7% last year to 15.6% this year, a very reasonable number. The Sacramento-area product has also improved considerably behind the plate as a strong framer with a strong arm. It's really hard to find catchers with that combination of power, bat to ball ability, and defense, so really the only question mark in his profile is that free swinging approach. If he was striking out over 20% of the time, it might be more worrisome, but given the consistent hard contact he has made against strong competition in the Pac-12, the fact that he rarely walks is more of an afterthought in the profile. I would prefer Parada in this spot but Susac has made a very good case for himself.

OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#9)
Long a headliner for this prep class, Elijah Green has been talked about as high as first overall in the past and more recently has endured rumors he could fall out of the top ten. Despite possessing the loudest physical tools in the entire class, the inconsistency of his hit tool is currently leaving evaluators with very split opinions. He showed well on the showcase circuit, but came out this spring in a bit of a funk and swung and missed at an alarming rate if we're going by the context of the top ten picks, then more recently, has righted the ship and looks as locked in as ever. So that leaves evaluators to decide – is Green a streaky hitter who will always deal with slumps, or has he turned a corner and is that slow start just a blip on an otherwise stellar track record? If the Nationals believe the latter, then they should be all over the Orlando native at pick #5. As most are well aware of by now, he possesses massive raw power unparalleled anywhere in the high school class, power he has gotten to against good pitching in the past. Not just a slugger, he can absolutely fly on the bases with plus-plus speed that makes him a weapon in center field as well. And oh yeah, he has a cannon right arm to boot. If you want to imagine his ceiling, think of Aaron Judge with Victor Robles speed. That's really, really hard to pass up if you believe in his hit tool. He's committed to Miami and I imagine he will be quite expensive to sign.

SS Jackson Holliday, Stillwater HS [OK] (#11)
I'll reserve the last three spots on this list for potential money savers, mostly so it doesn't read like a plain old top ten list. Jackson Holliday, the son of former All Star Matt Holliday, has been flying up boards faster than anybody this spring. A few months ago, he was seen as more of a second round type. Over the summer, Holliday showed an advanced approach at the plate, spraying deep line drives around the park by choosing good pitches and connecting with a clean, leveraged swing. It was a very nice profile, but scouts wanted to see him fill out his frame a little bit more (I've seen him listed as short as 5'11" and as tall as 6'1" in different sources) before projecting him as a true impact player. Well, he came out this spring looking much more physical and the results have been phenomenal, just raking against Oklahoma high school pitching and hitting some impressive home runs along the way. On top of that, he's a strong defender with a plus arm with a good chance to stick at shortstop, further increasing chances he could continue to move up. Right now, pick #5 seems just a little bit rich, but he's trending up and by July could be more in play here, especially if the Nationals want a shortstop. He probably won't require full slot value here despite a commitment to play for both his uncle and father at Oklahoma State, so he could help the Nationals go above slot later in the draft.

LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS [FL] (#13)
There are three lefties jockeying for position behind top prep pitching prospect Dylan Lesko, and they are Brandon Barriera, Jackson Ferris, and Noah Schultz. None will likely be in play at the fifth overall pick on talent alone, but if the Nationals want a pitcher and Lesko is off the board (or they don't want to splurge on his high price tag), they could reach down the board a little bit for one of these three and save some money in the process. I chose to highlight Barriera, a bulldog competitor down in South Florida who recently made it known he would be wrapping up his high school season early to focus on the draft. A bit undersized at a skinny 6'1", he possesses some of the loudest stuff in the class in a low to mid 90's fastball, a wicked slider, and a relatively advanced changeup. Coming from an uptempo delivery, he pounds the strike zone relentlessly and while his control is ahead of his command, he projects to stay in the rotation long term. He really stands out for his competitive demeanor on the mound, always looking to prove doubters wrong. A Vanderbilt commitment means he won't come cheap, but at pick #5 he should still help the Nationals save a little money and Vanderbilt commits have been used in that regard in the past (see Ian Anderson, third overall in 2016).

3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#16)
2022: 7 HR, .333/.429/.525, 5 SB, 30/24 K/BB in 48 games.
Cam Collier probably isn't a top ten prospect at this point, so it will take a strong finish to his JUCO season to vault into consideration at pick #5, and he'll also likely need to take a discount. He could be that guy, though, as one of the best pure hitters in this class especially when you take his age into account. Collier should be a high school junior, but not only did he reclassify, he went the Bryce Harper route and skipped both his junior and senior seasons at Mount Paran Christian HS in the Atlanta area in order to enroll early at Chipola JC in Florida. Despite being just 17 years old while playing against mostly 18, 19, and 20 year olds, he got off to a red hot start when his season began in January and was one of the spring's first risers. He's been a little up and down since then but the overall numbers remain great and he's hitting .556 over his last seven games, so if Collier can show that he's turned a corner and is now truly settling in, he'll be in a great spot come July. He doesn't stand out for one individual tool, instead showing feel for the. game advanced beyond his years and the ability to do a little bit of everything. His professional approach at the plate is the reason he's taken so well to older pitching, and there is some natural power here to all fields that he taps without selling out. Though he's not the springiest athlete in the world, his strong arm should help him stick at third base and provide some defensive value. This is the kind of bat that could reach the majors at twenty years old if everything breaks right. He's committed to Louisville and if he heads there, will be draft eligible again as a twenty year old junior in 2025, so he has a lot of leverage. This early in the draft, though, I'd still expect him to take a sizable discount even if he finishes strong enough to warrant the selection.

Other Options
OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#10)
3B Jacob Berry, Louisiana State (#12)
LHP Noah Schultz, Oswego East HS [IL] (#14)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy [FL] (#15)
OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee (#22)

Some second round options
It's very hard to predict who a team will take in the first round, especially in April, and therefore it's near impossible to guess who they'll take in the second round. So instead, I'll take a look at a few names I'd like to see the Nationals consider with the 45th overall pick.

LHP Parker Messick, Florida State (#24)
2022: 5-2, 2.93 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/12 K/BB in 55.1 innings.
I am very bullish on Parker Messick, and while his #24 ranking on my board may indicate he would be unlikely to reach the Nationals, he's ranked #48 by MLB Pipeline, #55 by Baseball America, and #71 by Prospects Live, so the industry definitely views him more as a second rounder. The reason I am bullish is simple, and that's because Messick can really, really pitch. He's an old school guy without big stuff, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball while adding a curveball, slider, and changeup. Both breaking balls flash above average while the changeup flashes plus, giving him plenty of weapons with which to attack hitters. However, the key to his success his pitchability, pounding the strike zone with confidence and swagger while effectively mixing pitches and changing speeds. Furthermore, everything plays up because he hides the ball extremely well, making him extremely difficult to pick up. Despite averaging a ranking of #58 between the three outlets I mentioned, I think he'll be gone within the top fifty picks due to the lack of college pitching in this class and I would love if the Nationals were the team to take him.

RHP Andrew Dutkanych, Brebeuf Jesuit HS [IN] (#26)
Andrew Dutkanych is an interesting pitcher that I think will thrive in the right development system. I'm not sure if that's Washington, but I'd rather have him on my side than not. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and touches 97, and while it doesn't quite have elite movement metrics, there's plenty of velocity there to make up for it. His best pitch is a short, tight slider that gives hitters fits, while his curveball and changeup are a bit behind the fastball and slider. Everything plays up because he's an aggressive pitcher that pounds the strike zone and refuses to be beat, and I think that kind of presence will serve him well in pro ball. The Indianapolis native also shows good command for a high schooler and is athletic on the mound, portending to a future in the starting rotation. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign in the second round.

SS Jett Williams, Rockwall-Heath HS [TX] (#28)
This is another fun one, as Jett Williams would probably be a surefire first rounder if it weren't for his short stature at 5'7". However, anybody looking at the size and comparing him to Nick Madrigal would be mistaken, because his game is much more explosive, more similar to Dustin Pedroia. Williams takes big hacks from the right side to produce above average power, but he keeps it under control and doesn't let it affect his hit tool. He finds the barrel consistently and has done so against good pitching, giving me confidence he'll be an impact hitter down the road. The Dallas-area native also plays a good shortstop and could stick there in the long run, with a strong arm and good athleticism to handle the position. He's also gotten looks in center field and has impressed there with plus speed and the aforementioned arm strength, adding some versatility to the profile. I honestly doubt he'll be available at pick #45 and if he is, it will be expensive to buy him out of a Mississippi State commitment, but the glut of high school shortstops with similar skillsets in the first round/comp round range (Jackson Holliday, Mikey Romero, Cole Young) could push him down.

LHP Bryce Hubbart, Florida State (#33)
2022: 6-1, 2.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 66/13 K/BB in 51 innings.
It's not just Parker Messick creating headlines in Tallahassee. While not quite Rocker-Leiter, Bryce Hubbart makes Messick-Hubbart the most fearsome one-two punch in college baseball right now as they've combined for a 2.88 ERA and 160 strikeouts to 25 walks in 106.1 innings. Hubbart, like Messick, doesn't quite light up the radar guns with his low 90's fastball, but it's an invisiball with tremendous riding action that hitters just can't seem to pick up (and he's hit 96 in the past as well). He adds a pair of breaking balls in a curveball and a sweepier slider that have both been inconsistent (the slider more so than the curveball), but they flash plus at their best and he also has a solid changeup at his disposal. Despite an uptempo delivery, the skinny 6'1" lefty has improved his control and is filling up the strike zone more often in 2022, dropping his walk rate from 9.5% a year ago to 6.0% this spring. Hubbart is also a student of the game who understands and has worked to incorporate new developments in pitching development. If the Nationals can help him reach his peak velocity more often and get more consistent with his breaking stuff, I think they could have a legit impact starter here.

OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS [NV] (#37)
Carl Crawford's son is one of the toolsiest players in this year's class, a notch below Elijah Green but still extremely impressive. Justin has had some first round buzz this spring and may not be available at pick #45, but he would be a great get if he is still on the board. As you'd expect from someone whose father stole 480 bases in a fifteen year big league career, the younger Crawford is a plus-plus runner who can change games with his speed. With a rangy 6'3" frame, he also has the chance to grow into plus power and he's been showing it off more often this spring. My main concern is with his hit tool, especially around offspeed pitches which he struggled with over the summer, but he's been better in that regard this spring and has shown enough to warrant a role of the dice early in the draft. There is a ton of upside here and I think it would be worth buying him out of his Louisiana State commitment, though it will be expensive.