2020 Awards Picks: Rookies, Relievers, and Managers

 Following up my MVP's and Cy Young's, below is how I would vote for the Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year and why. I will not be picking a Manager of the Year because I don't believe I'm qualified given that I haven't been around these men.

AL Rookie of the Year: OF Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 11 HR, .262/.364/.437, 5 SB, 126 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 58 games.
After white-hot starts from Kyle Lewis and Luis Robert, we didn't end up with any true standouts in this race, and there are a lot of players jumbled right at the top for me. Personally, I lean Lewis here, but I would not argue Cristian Javier and you could make a compelling case for Robert, Shaun Murphy, or even James Karinchak. I chose Lewis for a couple of reasons, not the least of which is the size of his body of work. He led all American League rookies with 242 plate appearances and tied for the lead with 58 games played, and looked good doing it. His eleven home runs also tied for the lead and his 1.7 fWAR finished first, on pace for nearly five in a full season. I was particularly impressed by his willingness to take a walk, and his 34 led all AL rookies by a wide margin over second place Yoshi Tsutsugo's 26. Lewis was also a solid defender in the Seattle outfield and stole five bases to boot, truly contributing in every facet for the Mariners.

Runner-up: RHP Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Stat line: 5-2, 3.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 54/18 KBB in 54.1 IP.
I was a big fan of what Cristian Javier pulled off this year as a 23 year old, leading all AL rookies (min. 35 innings) in ERA (3.48) and WHIP (1.00) in a year where the baseballs were flying farther off of bats than they ever have. Javier allowed just 36 hits in 54.1 innings, and with the exception of one rough start against the AL West champion A's, he allowed no more than three runs in eleven of his twelve appearances. He also went at least five innings in seven of his ten starts, which might not sound particularly impressive, but in 2020 managers had very, very short leashes for their young pitchers and Javier managed to extend his. As far as leaderboards go, beyond ERA and WHIP, he was third in strikeouts (54) and fourth in innings (54.1), though he also led in home runs allowed (11).

Honorable mention: C Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
Stat line: 7 HR, .233/.364/.457, 0 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR in 43 games.
Sean Murphy may have only appeared in 43 games, less than three quarters of the season, but he made a big impact. It's very, very hard nowadays to find good catching, and Murphy's 1.5 fWAR put him fourth among all AL catchers, rookie or not rookie. He blasted seven home runs (a 19 HR pace) and got on base at a .364 clip despite playing at a pitcher-friendly home park, and he held his own with strong defense behind the dish. He caught fire in September and slashed .277/.424/.638 with five home runs over his final 16 games, really helping the A's compensate for the loss of Matt Chapman. Overall though, it goes back to the second sentence of this paragraph: it's very hard to find Good Catching and Sean Murphy was a Good Catcher.

Others: OF Luis Robert (CWS, 1.5 fWAR), SS Willi Castro (DET, 1.3 fWAR), RHP James Karinchak (CLE, 2.67 ERA), LHP Justus Sheffield (SEA, 3.58 ERA), RHP Brady Singer (KC, 4.06 ERA).

NL Rookie of the Year: RHP Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Stat line: 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 12.63 RE24, 53/9 K/BB in 27 IP.
I'm not a big fan of giving awards such as the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to relievers, but come on, you can't pitch much better than Williams did this year. A 0.33 ERA, just eight hits and nine walks in 27 innings, and a ridiculous 53 strikeouts in 100 plate appearances are just unreal. His 12.63 RE24, which I think is a pretty good stat with which to measure relievers, led all MLB relievers, AL or NL and rookie or not rookie. He allowed three unearned runs against one earned run, but even if you add those three into his RA9, it still sits at a clean 1.33. After a tough second outing of the year in Pittsburgh, he finished it off with 24.2 shutout innings (one unearned run), a 0.53 WHIP, and a 49/7 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 20 appearances. That changeup, man. It's untouchable.

Runner-up: RHP Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 46/7 K/BB in 46.2 IP.
Tony Gonsolin may have only pitched 46.2 innings and won only two games, but I don't think he could have pitched much better than he did when he was on the mound. He allowed just 32 hits, and perhaps more impressively, only seven walks in those 46.2 innings for a ridiculous 0.84 WHIP, and his 2.31 ERA was second among NL rookies (min. 35 innings). In his nine appearances, he allowed zero or one earned runs six times, and he only walked multiple batters in an outing once. He didn't allow a run over his first three starts and saw only eight baserunners in those 14.2 innings, and on September 20th, he struck out ten in a very impressive start at Coors Field. In a year where baseballs were absolutely flying, everything he did becomes all the more impressive.

Honorable mention: 3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 4 HR, .338/.400/.481, 1 SB, 138 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 44 games.
Alec Bohm, like Gonsolin, didn't play the whole season, appearing in just under three quarters of his team's games. However, it's hard to argue with a .338/.400/.481 slash line just two years after he was drafted out of Wichita State. Bohm led National League rookies in hits (54) and RBI (23), and when you set the minimum at 100 plate appearances, he led in all three slash categories as well. He wasn't a superstar at third base but he held his own at a tough position, and overall there wasn't a greater sum of offensive production among any NL rookies. Jake Cronenworth may have played ten mores games with a strong season of his own, but he only had twelve more plate appearances and I don't think that's enough to make up for the gap in production.

Others: 2B Jake Cronenworth (SD, 1.4 fWAR), RHP Dustin May (LAD, 2.57 ERA), 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 1.7 fWAR), LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (STL, 1.62 ERA), RHP Ian Anderson (ATL, 1.95 ERA).

AL Reliever of the Year: RHP Liam Hendriks, Oakland A's
Stat line: 1.78 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 8.17 RE24, 37/3 K/BB in 25.1 IP.
Liam Hendriks was my 2019 AL Reliever of the Year when he put up a 1.80 ERA and a 124/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, and he will repeat again in 2020. When you combine in 2020's 1.78 ERA and 37/3 strikeout to walk ratio this year, he has a 1.79 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 161/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.1 innings since the start of last year. In addition to walking just three batters (one intentionally) this whole season, he also allowed just 14 hits in 25.1 innings, so Hendriks very rarely even had to pitch out of the stretch. Combine Hendriks with Jake Diekman (0.42 ERA, 31/12 K/BB) and JB Wendelken (1.80 ERA, 31/11 K/BB), and you can see why the A's did so well this year. I don't think this 2020 season quite matches what he did in 2019, but from just 2019-2020, Liam Hendriks has been the best relief pitcher in baseball.

Runner-Up: RHP Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 1.88 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 8.38 RE24, 31/6 K/BB in 24 IP.
Tyler Duffey barely hung on the Twins' roster from 2016-2018, but was very strong with a 2.50 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 2019, then took it to another level with a 1.88 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 31/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings in 2020. Those 24 innings saw him allow just 13 hits and six walks, so just like Hendriks, he was very rarely even in trouble on the mound. There's no single area where Duffey was particularly exceptional, but he was very strong by every measure and the end result was one of the best seasons we saw out of an AL reliever this year.

Others: RHP Codi Heuer (CWS, 1.52 ERA), RHP Nick Anderson (TB, 0.55 ERA), RHP Jesse Hahn (KC, 0.52 ERA).

NL Reliever of the Year: RHP Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Stat line: 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 12.63 RE24, 53/9 K/BB in 27 IP.
See his rookie section. Devin Williams was untouchable. Nobody is even remotely close to him here.

Runner-up: RHP Chris Martin, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 1.00 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 6.72 RE24, 20/3 K/BB in 18 IP.
There really weren't any standouts behind Williams, so with all of 18 innings pitched to his name, Chris Martin was the second best reliever in the National League last year. In those 18 innings, he allowed just eight hits, three walks (one intentional), and one hit batsman for a ridiculous 0.61 WHIP that bested even Williams. He struck out 20 of the 66 batters he faced (30%) and only allowed multiple baserunners in two of his 19 appearances. In the other 17, it was zero or one baserunners for his opponents.

Others: LHP Adam Kolarek (LAD, 0.95 ERA), LHP Drew Pomeranz (SD, 1.45 ERA), RHP Edwin Diaz (NYM, 1.75 ERA).

2020 Prospect Depth Chart: Philadelphia Phillies

Recent first rounders Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott lead the way on offense, but this system stands out most for its starting pitching depth. Breakouts from Spencer Howard, Damon Jones, and Kyle Glogoski helped them join guys like Cole Irvin, JoJo Romero, Adonis Medina, and David Parkinson as guys who could compete for rotation spots in the near future, and nice steps forward from Francisco Morales and Erik Miller down near the bottom of the system were really nice to see. There's not a ton of ceiling anywhere in this system except for perhaps in Bohm and Morales, but the sheer depth of viable starting pitchers here is enough to say the system is in a fairly decent spot.

Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, short season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies

Catcher
- Deivy Grullon (2020 Age: 24): Grullon has gradually added power throughout his time in the minors, and he really broke out in that sense once he got to the top two levels of the Phillies' system, which are naturally hitter-friendly. This year, he slashed .283/.354/.496 with 21 home runs and a 133/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at AAA Lehigh Valley, then he doubled for his lone hit in nine major league at bats. Grullon generates his power more from strength than from bat speed, though he also tends to swing over the ball and put more balls on the ground than he should. He's not the smoothest catcher behind the plate, but he does have a cannon for an arm that levels out his defensive value. Overall, he probably projects for about 15 home runs per season with mediocre on-base percentages, which puts him in line for a long-term role as a backup catcher.
- Rafael Marchan (2020 Age: 21): Marchan is probably the most balanced catching prospect in the system, and in my opinion, he's probably the best. In 2019, the switch hitter slashed .261/.333/.325 with no home runs and a 39/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 games at Class A Lakewood and High A Clearwater, and while he's yet to hit a home run in his 210 career pro games, he did set a career high with 20 doubles in 2019 and he's spent most of his career in pitcher-friendly contexts. Marchan is only 5'9", but he has a clean swing from both sides of the plate and a great eye for the strike zone, making easy contact and rarely striking out. That helps him behind the plate, too, where he should be above average all-around. Whether Marchan can ever break through as a starter will depend on his power, as he currently hasn't shown much in games and has instead settled for line drives, but he does have the potential to pop 5-10 annually. I think he probably ends up a backup long term, but I do like him.
- Rodolfo Duran (2020 Age: 22): Overall, Duran has a fairly similar profile to Grullon. Duran spent 2019 at High A Clearwater, where he slashed a fairly disappointing .240/.273/.369 with six home runs and a 53/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 66 games, though Clearwater is fairly pitcher-friendly. He generates good power despite his 5'9" frame, getting the barrel to the ball quickly with his quick wrists and powerful swing. He's very aggressive at the plate usually puts the ball in play, leading to a very low walk rate, and overall I think Grullon has the better long-term outlook. Duran will probably always post low on-base percentages but he has a shot to hit for some power, and his defensive profile is fairly similar to Grullon's as well, perhaps a hair better.
- Juan Aparicio (2020 Age: 19-20): This one might sneak up on a few people, but he's a sleeper to watch. In 2019, he slashed .303/.364/.457 with two home runs and a 41/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games at short season Williamsport and Class A Lakewood, showing great feel for the barrel at a young age that should play up as he moves through the minors. He's very much a work in progress defensively, so he's far, far from a sure thing, but if he does shore up his play behind the plate, his bat profiles well back there and he's got some upside. He doesn't turn 20 until May.
- Keep an eye on: Abrahan Gutierrez, Andrick Nava, Freddy Francisco

Corner Infield
- Alec Bohm (2020 Age: 23-24): Bohm was the Phillies' first round (third overall) pick out of Wichita State in 2019, and his successful first full season (as well as Sixto Sanchez's trade to the Marlins) cemented his status as the top prospect in the system. The Phillies started Bohm off conservatively at Class A Lakewood, but he ended up hitting his way up three levels and finished with a .305/.378/.518 slash line, 21 home runs, and a 73/57 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games at Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's got raw power in his 6'5" frame, but perhaps more impressive this year was his plate discipline, as he rarely struck out while drawing a healthy amount of walks, even after he got up to AA a year out of college. A 73/57 strikeout to walk ratio is not common for 6'5" power hitters, and his track record since his college days proves that it's absolutely not a fluke. The one nit-picky ding on Bohm's season may have been his power, as he only hit seven home runs in 62 games in A ball, though he also hit 19 doubles and those were pitcher-friendly contexts. 14 of his 21 home runs came in 63 games in Reading, his highest level, though that in turn was a very hitter-friendly context. Overall, he projects for 25-30 home runs per season and high on-base percentages, making him a true middle of the order hitter. The Phillies are hoping to keep him at third base, where he's adequate, but there's a non-zero chance that he shifts over to first base, where his bat will still easily profile.
- Darick Hall (2020 Age: 24-25): Behind Bohm, the Phillies have a few fringy prospects, but really nothing too too special going on. That enables Darick Hall, a 14th round pick out of Dallas Baptist in 2016, to stand out with his power. In 2019, he slashed .235/.344/.454 with 20 home runs and a 134/60 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games, and while he does have a track record for hitting for power (he has 75 home runs over the last three seasons), most of that power in 2019 showed up at his hitter-friendly home park. Hall has a lot of power in his 6'4" frame, though while he does have that track record of getting to it, you have to question whether that will still be the case in the majors. His patient approach leads to plenty of walks but also a good amount of swing and miss, and as a first baseman, he'll have to hit. He hits lefties pretty well despite being a left handed hitter, so he has that going for him, and he projects as a power hitting bench bat.
- Keep an eye on: Austin Listi, Madison Stokes, Cole Stobbe

Middle Infield
- Nick Maton (2020 Age: 23): Maton has utility infielder written all over him, but he does have the upside to be a starting second baseman. In 2019, he slashed .266/.349/.376 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and an 85/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at High A Clearwater and AA Reading. He doesn't have any loud tools that stand out, but he also doesn't really do anything wrong on the field, using his advanced approach, quick, left handed swing, and wiry strength to produce some surprisingly decent power and high on-base percentages. He probably doesn't have quite enough bat to start in the majors, and he'll profile well as a utility guy who does a bit of everything, but I get a good feeling here and he could easily outplay his projections.
- Bryson Stott (2020 Age: 22): Stott, the Phillies' first round pick out of UNLV in 2019, hit the ground running in pro ball and looks like he'll move quickly. In his pro debut, he slashed .295/.391/.494 with six home runs and a 39/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 48 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Williamsport, showing off the broad array of skills that got him drafted 14th overall. He's added power throughout his time in college as he's filled out his 6'3" frame and started to focus more on driving rather than just hitting the ball, and it's turned him into a dangerous hitter given his exceptional hand eye coordination and feel for the barrel. He draws plenty of walks while avoiding strikeouts well, even after shifting his approach to hit for more power, and at this point he projects for about 15 home runs per season with high on-base percentages and a few stolen bases here and there. The fact that Alec Bohm has third base locked up bodes well for his ability to stick at shortstop, as he's solid but unspectacular there, though second base is also a future possibility. He has the bat to profile anywhere on the field and he has the ceiling of a true leadoff man.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 19): He's one of five relevant Luis Garcia's in professional baseball, including one who pitched out of the Phillies bullpen in 2018, so it's hard to keep them all straight. This Luis Garcia signed out of the Dominican Republic for $2.5 million in 2017, then slashed .369/.433/.488 in a fantastic pro debut in the complex level Gulf Coast League as a 17 year old in 2018. The Phillies completely skipped him over short season ball and sent him straight to Class A Lakewood as an 18 year old, where his approach was exposed a bit and he slashed .186/.261/.255 with four home runs and a 132/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games. Garcia's strong feel for the game enabled the Phillies to be aggressive with him, though now they may need to dial that back a bit. A switch hitter, his bat from the right side (.232/.317/.272) might be a bit ahead of his bat from the left side (.170/.240/.249), but he still shows a clean, simple stroke from both sides and his strong approach helps him put the ball in play regularly. I wouldn't be too worried about the tough season just yet, and a little more patience could see him develop into a contact-hitting utility man or starting shortstop with some speed to boot. He's very good defensively, and if he hits enough, it will likely be him who pushes Stott off of shortstop, not the other way around.
- Jamari Baylor (2020 Age: 19): The Phillies didn't have a second round pick in 2019, so they went for upside in the third round and signed Baylor out of a Richmond-area military high school. He played just four games in his pro debut and slashed .273/.333/.455 with a pair of strikeouts and a walk. Baylor has more talent than track record at this point, showing power, speed, and solid contact ability that could make him a well-rounded player. He's got some nice loft in his swing and does a good job of putting the ball in play, though he hasn't quite tapped his raw power too much yet and will need time to develop it. It's also not exactly known where he'll fit in on the diamond, as he's a shortstop for now but he has to play his way past Stott and Garcia if he wants to start there. For now, just think of him as an athletic kid who could develop in any number of directions, albeit with some bust risk.
- Keep an eye on: Arquimedes Gamboa, Daniel Brito, Kendall Simmons, Wilfredo Flores

Outfield
- Mickey Moniak (2020 Age: 21-22): I don't have to tell Phillies fans that Moniak has been one of the bigger disappointments in recent memory. Drafted first overall out of a San Diego-area high school in 2016, he's moved through the minors one level at a time and in 2019, he slashed .252/.303/.439 with eleven home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 111/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at AA Reading. Those numbers are actually the best of his career, and it was nice to see that seven of his eleven home runs came on the road away from his hitter-friendly home park. Moniak is a great athlete with great feel for the game, and that's what got him drafted first overall, though in pro ball he hasn't hit for nearly as much impact as hoped. He's got a solid approach at the plate, especially for a kid who won't turn 22 until May, and he's good at spraying balls into the gaps (his 13 triples actually tied for second in the minors this year). It's hard to see him turning into the star the Phillies envisioned when drafting him, but he still shows just enough on both sides of the ball to potentially profile as a 10-15 home run guy with solid on-base percentages, some speed, and solid outfield defense.
- Jhailyn Ortiz (2020 Age: 21): Ortiz was a big time prospect when he signed out of the Dominican Republic for $4.2 million in 2015, more money than fellow Dominicans Juan Soto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. got the very same week. Ortiz hasn't quite developed as quickly, and in 2019 he slashed .200/.272/.381 with 19 home runs and a 149/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 115 games at High A Clearwater. There's no question about his raw power being among the best in the system, perhaps even better than Alec Bohm's when he gets into one. However, Ortiz's approach at the plate leaves some to be desired, and there are enough holes in his right handed swing that he hasn't been able to get to his power consistently. The good news is that Ortiz was playing the entire season in High A at 20 years old, and he still has time to figure himself out. Ortiz's ceiling is still that of a 30 homer bat with fluctuating on-base percentages, but he's more likely to end up a fringe starter with 15-20 home runs annually and low on-base percentages.
- Simon Muzziotti (2020 Age: 21): Muzziotti has been kind of a sleeper in this organization for a while, but he finally began to break out in 2019 by slashing .287/.337/.372 with three home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 60/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at High A Clearwater. He's skinny and won't ever be mistaken for a power hitter, but he's very athletic and his great hand eye coordination and barrel control give him a combination of both low strikeout rates and gap power. He's one I expect to get better as he moves up through the minors and begins to fill out his 6'1" frame, and while the current projection is that of a contact-hitting fourth outfielder, he has a chance to be more.
- Matt Vierling (2020 Age: 23): A fifth rounder out of Notre Dame in 2018, Vierling had a highly successful pro debut where he slashed .321/.365/.496 between short season Williamsport and Class A Lakewood, and extremely impressive showing considering the majority of his games came at the higher level. He wasn't quite able to build off that in 2019, slashing .232/.297/.329 with five home runs, 22 stolen bases, and a 94/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games in that talented High A Clearwater outfield, though many hitting prospects have had a tough time in the Florida State League. He doesn't stand out for any of his physical tools (besides his cannon arm), instead doing a little bit of everything well and using his advanced feel for the game to produce. He has a short, simple right handed swing that produces a lot of line drives and fly balls, the latter of which went to die in the cavernous Florida State League ballparks, and he avoids strikeouts well while using his above average speed to steal bases efficiently. Defensively, he has solid range and that great arm, and if he can get his bat back and humming, he has a good shot at being a valuable fourth outfielder.
- Keep an eye on: Cornelius Randolph, Grenny Cumana, Josh Stephen, Carlos De La Cruz, Johan Rojas

Starting Pitching
- Cole Irvin (2020 Age: 26): Irvin is just barely a prospect, but he still technically qualifies and he'll get a writeup here. After a strong 2018 season in AAA (2.57 ERA, 131/35 K/BB), the Phillies sent him back to the minors again in 2019 where he had a 3.94 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a 65/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 93.2 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley – he also had a 5.83 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 31/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.2 major league innings. A fifth round pick out of Oregon in 2016, his stuff is average across the board, but he stands out most for his ability to control the strike zone and put himself in advantage counts. A low 90's fastball and a set of solid-average secondaries means he can fall victim to the long ball occasionally, as he allowed 20 in 2019, so the fact that he is good at avoiding mistakes is critical. Irvin is also extremely durable, as he's topped 135 innings in four consecutive seasons going back to college, which will play to his advantage in trying to crack a Phillies rotation with some question marks at the bottom. There are a lot of guys competing for those last couple of spots that have higher ceilings, so Irvin is most likely destined for a swing role, but should they falter or get hurt, he'll be right there to grab that fifth spot.
- Spencer Howard (2020 Age: 23-24): Howard, a second rounder out of Cal Poly in 2017, has been on an upward trajectory for a while now. He struggled out of the gate in 2018, but turned it around and finished strong, throwing a complete game no-hitter in the South Atlantic League playoffs. This year, he posted a 2.03 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and a 94/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 innings between High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and a few innings of complex level rehab work despite missing time with shoulder soreness. There's no one adjustment that helped Howard break out this year; he got better all around. He now sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and sharpened his secondary stuff, with his slider becoming a real weapon and his curveball and changeup coming along. Additionally, he's gotten more consistent with his command, which rather than working against him, now works in his favor as he attacks the zone with more confidence. Shoulder problems are always scary, but it looks like he's put them behind him. If he can stay healthy, Howard is on the kind of trajectory that could land him in the middle of the Phillies rotation at some point in 2021 or perhaps even in late 2020.
- JoJo Romero (2020 Age: 23): Romero had three strong seasons to start his pro career after going in the fourth round out of an Arizona junior college in 2016, but he hit his first speed bump in 2019. This year, he had a 5.82 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 92/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings at AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley, as he handled Reading (4.84 ERA, 52/12 K/BB) but struggled at the higher level (6.88 ERA, 40/35 K/BB). He's solid but fairly inconsistent with both his stuff and his command, and it was a slight regression in the command that hurt him at AAA. He typically sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, which he can run and sink effectively, and he adds a full array of secondary pitches that he gets good deception on. He sometimes loses his release point, which can affect both the stuff and command, but he's still fairly young as far as upper minors prospects go and he has time to refine that. Doing so will be the key to success in the majors, as he may profile better as a left handed reliever if he's going to be inconsistent. He'll also have to battle Irvin, Howard, Enyel De Los Santos, Damon Jones, and active major leaguers like Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta if he wants to crack the rotation in 2020.
- Adonis Medina (2020 Age: 23): The Phillies have brought Medina along at exactly a one level per year pace, though 2019 was a bit tough as he reached AA. He posted a 4.94 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and an 82/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.2 innings for Reading, the hitter-friendly environment perhaps getting to him as he allowed eight of his eleven home runs at home. Medina's stuff is just about MLB-caliber; he sits in the low to mid 90's with his running fastball, gets nice, two plane break on his curveball, and gets nice fade on his changeup. He also doesn't hurt himself with walks too often. His problem, especially in AA, has been that he's not missing bats at the rate his stuff dictates he should, especially against left handed batters. While he doesn't walk a lot of guys, he needs to work on hitting his spots better and avoiding left handed barrels, and in order to start at the major league level, sharpening one of his secondary pitches into a true plus pitch will probably be necessary. For now he projects as a #4 starter with the chance to be a #3.
- Damon Jones (2020 Age: 25): Jones went in the 18th round out of Washington State in 2017, but he caught some eyes by pitching well in Class A in 2018 (3.41 ERA, 123/50 K/BB) before breaking out in 2019. This year, he had a 2.91 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 152/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and AAA Lehigh Valley, though he actually had a 1.34 ERA and a 119/33 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings before his promotion to AAA (6.62 ERA, 33/26 K/BB). The 6'5" lefty now sits in the low 90's with his fastball, and he's added power to his curveball that now makes it an out pitch. Additionally, he did a much better job of attacking hitters with strikes, at least at the lower levels, though his command fell apart and his lack of a real changeup exposed him in AAA. Jones has more work to do in those regards, and he profiles as a #4 or #5 starter if he can take even a small step forward there, and his fastball/curveball combination would play up well out of the bullpen.
- David Parkinson (2020 Age: 24): After drafting Parkinson in the 12th round out of Ole Miss in 2017, the Phillies tried to take it slow with the 6'2" lefty, but he dominated in A ball in 2018 (1.45 ERA, 141/35 K/BB) and forced a promotion to AA to start 2019. He spent the year there and posted a 4.08 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 118/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 innings for Reading, which was especially nice to see after he had spent all of 2018 pitching in pitcher-friendly environments. Additionally, not included in those stats are seven shutout innings in the Eastern League playoffs, which would bring his ERA down to 3.86. He pitches with largely average stuff, sitting just above 90 with his fastball and adding a nice curveball and an improved changeup, but his command has been better than expected in pro ball and that's enabled it to continue to play up at every level he's pitched at. Parkinson still has a limited ceiling as that of a #4 or #5 starter, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll get there.
- Connor Seabold (2020 Age: 24): Seabold got all the way up to AA in 2018, his first full season after being drafted in the third round out of Cal State Fullerton in 2017, though injuries kept him off the mound until the end of June in 2019. Once he returned, he looked as good as ever, putting up a 2.24 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 58/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings between complex level rehab, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and like Parkinson, adds a curveball and an improving changeup, though his command has been his bread and butter as he has gotten better at hitting his spots rather than just filling up the strike zone. Those 40 great innings at AA now have him in position to fight for a back-end rotation spot in the near future, but the Phillies also have so many arms near the top of the minors that it might be tough.
- Kyle Glogoski (2020 Age: 21): Here's a kid that came out of absolutely nowhere. Glogoski grew up in Auckland, New Zealand, where baseball isn't all that popular, to put it lightly. However, after discovering the game at the age of 12 (you can read a really good article on that here), he's taken off, and he signed with the Phillies in 2018, two days after his 19th birthday. After a strong showing in the complex-level Gulf Coast League in 2018 (2.31 ERA, 47/11 K/BB), he put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2019, posting a 1.68 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings at Class A Lakewood and High A Clearwater. The 6'2" righty sits around 90 with his fastball, adding a curveball with big drop and a nice changeup, but his stuff plays up both due to his command and his ability to mix pitches and keep hitters off balance (especially the latter). He'll be just 21 years old for all of 2020 with the chance to tackle the upper minors, and if he can refine his command a bit further, he could be a #3 or a #4 starter. Even at present, he's well on his way to being a #5.
- Francisco Morales (2020 Age: 20): Coming into the season, Morales was a young arm with emerging stuff that hadn't quite put it together. Now, after a strong full season debut, he's well on his way leading the next wave of arms in this system. In 2019, he had a 3.82 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a 129/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 96.2 innings at Class A Lakewood, nice numbers when you consider he was 19 for the whole season. He now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and his secondary stuff is beginning to come along, with both a slider and a changeup that are improved from a year ago. He's still very much a work in progress, as his command leaves some to be desired, but that too is improving and he's probably right where the Phillies want him to be in his development. The 6'4" righty is on the right trajectory, will be just 20 for all of 2020, and has breakout potential.
- Erik Miller (2020 Age: 22): Miller has always been a bit of an enigma, and he still is. A top prospect coming out of a St. Louis high school in 2016, he instead attended Stanford and rode an up and down career to a fourth round selection in 2019. His pro debut was much more up than down, as he posted a 1.50 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 52/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at short season Williamsport, and at Class A Lakewood. He's a 6'5" lefty with a power, low to mid 90's fastball and a swing and miss slider, but he's been inconsistent with pretty much everything else. He sometimes struggles to keep his big frame in sync, which leads to elevated walk rates, and his changeup looks good at times but can also flatten out. That's a reliever profile on the surface, but I wrote before the draft that a pro team might be able to clean him up and get him to his mid-rotation ceiling. We've only seen 36 innings of him in pro ball, but the Phillies might be doing just that and he could end up being a fourth round steal if he the success holds up. He's certainly talented enough to do so.
- Victor Santos (2020 Age: 19-20): Despite still being just a teenager, Santos has thrown over 200 professional innings and has walked just 27 batters – that alone tells you most of what you need to know about the 6'1" righty. In 2019, he skipped over short season ball and went straight to Class A Lakewood still a few months shy of his 19th birthday, and he posted a 4.02 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 105.1 innings. He comes in with long arm action but his command is just about as pinpoint as you could possibly expect from a teenager, and that makes him really interesting. He sits around 90 with his fastball and adds a so-so slider and an advanced changeup, which he mixes effectively against older competition. His stuff at present will not play in the majors no matter how good his command is, but with that box checked and then some, he has plenty of time to refine that pure stuff. Even a few small improvements, such as a bump into the low 90's with his fastball or some sharpening of his slider, could make him a back-end starter, and just the fact that he's such a refined pitcher at such a young age makes him really interesting.
- Kyle Young (2020 Age: 22): Young, a 22nd round pick out of a Long Island high school in 2016, opened a lot of eyes in 2018 with a 3.10 ERA and a 44/7 strikeout to walk ratio at Class A. The Phillies were excited to see what he could do in 2019, but after posting a 4.29 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 innings at High A Clearwater, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Young is physically imposing, to say the least, at 6'10", though his pinpoint command is what makes him the prospect he is. His stuff is average and his fastball sometimes struggles to scrape 90, but it plays up not only due to the command but also due to his height and extension, giving the ball nice angle. 2020 will be mostly about getting his feet back under him, but he'll be 22 for the whole season and he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter if he can stay healthy.
- Gunner Mayer (2020 Age: 19-20): Mayer, a fifth round pick out of a California junior college in 2019, is a real sleeper, but I like him a lot. Having just turned 19 in July, he's very much a work in progress, but as a 6'6" righty with a loose arm, he will get a lot of patience from the Phillies. His fastball already sits in the low 90's, he gets nice depth on his curveball, and he also shows a slider and a changeup, his easy delivery making it seem very likely that the stuff could tick up. His command still needs some work, but all the building blocks are here and I think pro refinement could help him take a big step forward, if not immediately in 2020 then perhaps in 2021. Mark him down as a sleeper to watch.
- Keep an eye on: Bailey Falter, Colton Eastman, Nick Fanti, Ethan Evanko, Kevin Gowdy, Brett Schulze, Jose Conopoima

Relief Pitching
- Enyel De Los Santos (2020 Age: 24): Originally signed by the Mariners in 2014, De Los Santos went to the Padres for Joaquin Benoit in 2015 then to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in 2017. He's now had two short stints up in the majors with the Phillies, posting a combined 5.70 ERA, a 1.50 WHIP, and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 30 innings, but he retains prospect status. In the minors in 2019, he had a 4.40 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and an 83/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley, and in most organizations he'd still have a chance to start, but the Phillies are so deep in starting pitching in the upper minors that he'll probably have to shift to the bullpen. The 6'3" righty sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, and while his curveball never really developed into anything special, he does have a nice changeup and decent enough command that have kept him in the rotation up to this point. In the bullpen, his fastball and changeup can play up, and his ability to go multiple innings will make him more than a matchup righty. He could also make spot starts where necessary, making him more of a pocket knife than a refined, one-role guy.
- Mauricio Llovera (2020 Age: 24): Llovera is probably in the same boat as De Los Santos. He pitched well in the low and mid minors and reached AA in 2019, posting a 4.55 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 72/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.1 innings as a starter for Reading, but the crowded rotation picture means he'll probably be better off in the bullpen. He's only 5'11" but sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a nice slider to go with a curveball and a changeup, all of which he commands fairly well, but he'll be able to scrap one of those pitches and allow his power stuff to play up in shorter stints. He's the kind of guy who could take a big step forward in the bullpen, so it will be interesting to see how the Phillies handle that in 2020.
- Connor Brogdon (2020 Age: 25): Brogdon already made his transition to the bullpen, and his 2.61 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 106/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 76 innings at High A Clearwater, AA Reading, and AAA Lehigh Valley were evidence that the transition went really well. The 6'6" righty has solid command of his mid 90's fastball and good slider, and with the ability to go multiple innings, he had one of the more impressive seasons among minor league relievers. Watch out for Brogdon to try to crack the Phillies bullpen in 2020, as he may have pushed himself past Kyle Dohy as the top pure-relief prospect in the system.
- Kyle Dohy (2020 Age: 23): Dohy's huge 2018, in which he struck out 111 batters in 67.1 innings across three levels, put him on the map, though 2019 was a bit rougher as advanced hitters started to punish his mistakes. He posted a 5.32 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 105/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.2 innings at AA Reading and AAA Lehigh Valley, showing both major league stuff and minor league command. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a swing and miss slider and a good changeup from a deceptive delivery, but his continued struggles with command likely mean that he'll be more of a seventh inning guy than a future closer. A small step forward with that command in 2020 should get him up to the majors.
- Dominic Pipkin (2020 Age: 20): Pipkin, the Phillies' ninth round pick out of an Oakland-area high school in 2018, is a starter for now, but his future is likely in the bullpen. In 2019, he had a 5.15 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 44/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 71.2 innings at Class A Lakewood, which are pretty ugly numbers until you realize he was 19 the whole time. Pipkin was fairly raw coming out of high school so I was a bit surprised when they sent him to full season ball to start 2019, and while his low 90's fastball was enough to get him through lineups of older hitters, the rest of his stuff wasn't quite consistent enough. He's more about projection than anything else, as he has a loose arm and a smooth delivery from a projectable 6'4" frame, and another year at the level might help him get back on track towards becoming a #3 or #4 starter. If he transitions to the bullpen, he could add some velocity and focus on one or two of his secondary pitches, then move more quickly than he would as a starter.
- Keep an eye on: Addison Russ, Jeff Singer, Andrew Schultz

2018 Draft: A Year Later

One year does not tell you everything you need to know about a draft's success, but the first full season is often a huge tell as to how a player's amateur production will translate into pro ball. In 2017, 2016 second rounder Bo Bichette (Blue Jays) slashed .362/.423/.565 in A ball to turn himself into one of the top prospects in his draft class, while fourth overall pick Riley Pint's (Rockies) 5.42 ERA and poor 79/59 strikeout to walk ratio in Class A that year pointed towards what has ultimately been a disappointing start to his pro career and a greatly diminished prospect status. Now, this does go the other way. Using the same 2016 draft class, third rounder Austin Hays (Orioles) slashed .329/.365/.593 with 32 home runs in 2017 to vault himself all the way to the big leagues, but 2018 and 2019 have been rather pedestrian and he has lost some shine from that big first full season. On the flip side, first rounder Gavin Lux (Dodgers) looked rather mediocre in Class A that year with a .244/.331/.362 slash line, but he exploded for a .324/.399/.514 line in 2018 and is now one of the top prospects in the game.

All of that said about the 2016 draft, the first full season very important, and I'm ready to dive into the 2018 draftees and where they stand today at the end of the 2019 season. As a whole, this draft class is proving to be particularly strong as a lot of players have over-performed and very few have seriously under-performed.

The Top Five Picks

1-1: RHP Casey Mize (Auburn -> Detroit Tigers). Stock ticking up – cautiously
8-3, 2.55 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 106/23 K/BB in 109.1 IP at High A and AA
It's been a roller coaster ride for Mize so far, as a lot happened in his first full season. He had some minor durability questions as an underclassman at Auburn, though he mostly alleviated them as a junior but was still held to just 13.2 innings in his pro debut in 2018 after a long season in the SEC. The Tigers turned him loose at High A Lakeland in 2019, and he quickly rewarded them with four exceptional starts, so he was promoted to AA Erie and threw a no-hitter in his first start at the level. As of June 13th, he had a 0.92 ERA, a 0.69 WHIP, and a 75/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 innings, but a minor shoulder injury shut him down that day and the entire state of Michigan held its breath. Fortunately, he returned in July, but he was knocked around a bit and had a 6.61 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 31.1 innings before being shut down. The Tigers maintain that he was healthy and that they felt he had accomplished everything he needed to in 2019 and that they were just monitoring his workload, but shoulder injuries are very scary and, at their worst, can end careers. In all, I'd take Mize's 2019 season as a success in that he proved he could dominate the upper minors in just his first full season, but I'm only cautiously optimistic because of the shoulder issue.

1-2: C Joey Bart (Georgia Tech -> San Francisco Giants). Stock holding
16 HR, .278/.328/.495, 5 SB, 71/21 K/BB, 128 wRC+ in 79 games at High A and AA
Aside from a broken left hand that kept him out of action from mid April until early June, Bart neither exceeded nor fell short of expectations in 2019. The 2018 second overall pick out of Georgia Tech began the season at High A San Jose, completely skipping Class A after spending most of his 2018 pro debut at short season Salem-Keizer, and he slashed .265/.315/.479 with 12 home runs and a 50/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games around that broken hand. Promoted to AA Richmond towards the end of the season, Bart held up well at the advanced level and slashed .316/.368/.544 with four home runs and a 21/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games, giving him 16 home runs and a .278/.328/.495 line on the abbreviated year. Bart showed his light-tower power throughout the season, though he didn't get to it quite consistently enough to warrant bumping his already valuable stock up further. Not known for strong plate discipline in college, his approach held up against advanced pitching and looks like it won't be a problem. Bart remains on track to take over the starting catching job from Buster Posey sometime in the next few seasons.

1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (Wichita State -> Philadelphia Phillies). Stock ticking up
21 HR, .305/.378/.518, 6 SB, 73/57 K/BB, 160 wRC+ in 125 games at Class A, High A, and AA
Like Bart, Alec Bohm was known in college for his prodigious raw power. The Phillies weren't quite as aggressive with the Wichita State product, starting him at Class A Lakewood, and he proved quickly that he didn't belong by slashing .367/.441/.595 with three home runs in 22 games, earning a promotion to High A Clearwater. Despite the pitcher-friendly environment, he still slashed .329/.395/.506 with four home runs and a 21/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. He earned a promotion to AA Reading, though at this point, he had hit "just" seven home runs in 62 games – not a bad number, especially considering his high on-base percentage, but you'd hope for more out of your star third overall pick who was known for his power. In hitter-friendly Reading, that power finally showed up and he slashed .269/.344/.500 with 14 home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games to close out the year. Together, that meant 21 home runs and a .305/.378/.518 line in his first full season, showing a potent all-around bat that should be major league ready in 2020. With the juiced balls in AAA and the majors, he should have no problem getting to his power up there and his strong plate discipline will help him be a true middle of the order threat.

1-4: SS Nick Madrigal (Oregon State -> Chicago White Sox). Stock ticking up
4 HR, .311/.377/.414, 35 SB, 16/44 K/BB, 125 wRC+ in 120 games at High A, AA, and AAA
While Bohm started in Class A, Madrigal joined Mize and Bart with that aggressive assignment to High A, in this case Winston-Salem, and he responded by slashing .272/.346/.377 with two home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 6/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games. Those weren't the flashiest numbers, but Madrigal is listed at just 5'7" and 165 pounds, so it was a big step towards proving he could hit pro pitching with authority. Called up to AA Birmingham, he improved to .341/.400/.451 with one home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 5/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games, earning yet another promotion up to AAA Charlotte barely a year after he was drafted. A .331/.398/.424 with a home run, four stolen bases, and a 5/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 29 games closed out his season, and he finished at .309/.371/.398 with 35 stolen bases and just 16 strikeouts in 120 games, good for a 3% strikeout rate. The scouting report today stands exactly the same as it did last year when he was drafted, but now not only does he make the easiest contact in minor league baseball while stealing plenty of bases, he can hit for *some* moderate power as well with 27 doubles, five triples, and four home runs this year. Now a second baseman, where he fits better, he'll match up well with Tim Anderson when he reaches the majors in 2020, likely shortly after his 23rd birthday.

1-5: 3B Jonathan India (Florida -> Cincinnati Reds). Stock down a tick
11 HR, .259/.365/.402, 11 SB, 110/59 K/BB, 129 wRC+ in 121 games at High A and AA
Jonathan India's massive offensive outburst as a junior at Florida in 2018 propelled him into the first round, where I ranked him twelfth on my personal list and where the Reds drafted him with the fifth overall pick. As his first full season comes to a close, I'm feeling pretty good about that #12 ranking and my feeling that #5 was a bit too high seems to be reaffirmed. That said, while India failed to live up to expectations in 2019, I wouldn't call this year a full-on disappointment given the pitcher-friendly contexts he played in. India started off at High A Daytona Beach, where he slashed a rather pedestrian .256/.346/.410 with eight home runs and an 84/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 87 games. Promoted up to AA Chattanooga in July, he finished off the season by slashing .270/.414/.378 with three home runs and a 26/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 34 games, giving him eleven home runs and a .259/.365/.402 line for the year. India showed strong plate discipline to go with average power and contact ability, and though the power didn't really carry over to AA, he remains a highly regarded prospect who should be an all-around contributor at the major league level. As I said with Bohm, the juiced balls at AAA and the majors should help him tap into that power a bit more, and he could be a solid #5 hitter with the Reds in the near future. I just don't see him as a future star.

Stock Way Up
1-6: OF Jarred Kelenic (Waukesha West (WI) HS -> New York Mets -> Seattle Mariners)
23 HR, .291/.364/.540, 20 SB, 111/50 K/BB, 152 wRC+ in 117 games at Class A, High A, and AA
If we were to re-do the 2018 Draft this winter, Casey Mize would probably still go first overall, but Jarred Kelenic would have a real shot at going second after after his monster first full season left the Mets regretting trading him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Like most advanced high school bats, Kelenic started the season in Class A with West Virginia, but he only lasted 50 games after he slashed .309/.394/.586 with eleven home runs and a 45/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Promoted to High A Modesto, he kept on hitting against advanced competition to the tune of a .290/.353/.485 line, six home runs, and a 49/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 46 games. In August, the Mariners decided to turn him loose up at AA Arkansas, where he slashed .253/.315/.542 with six more home runs and a 17/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games against extremely advanced pitching. We all knew he was advanced for a high schooler, but even then, a 20-20 season and a .291/.364/.540 line while reaching AA is extremely impressive. Unlike most high school draftees, Kelenic is on the fast track to the majors, and he could be a productive, top of the lineup hitter in the Mariners' lineup sooner rather than later.

1-14: RHP Logan Gilbert (Stetson -> Seattle Mariners)
10-5, 2.13 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 165/33 K/BB in 135 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Well, what can you say, the 2018 Draft has been good to the Seattle Mariners. Not only has Jarred Kelenic established himself as one of the top prospects in baseball, Logan Gilbert has bumped his name among the best pitching prospects as well. After holding him out of game action in 2018 following a long season with Stetson, the Mariners started him off slowly with a relatively conservative assignment to Class A West Virginia, where he posted a 1.59 ERA, a 0.66 WHIP, and a 36/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 22.2 innings before his promotion drew a collective sigh of relief across South Atlantic League lineups. Up at High A Modesto, his opponents didn't fare much better, as he posted a 1.73 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 73/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 62.1 innings, forcing another promotion. Up at AA Arkansas by mid-July, he had a 2.88 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 56/15 strikeout to walk ratio over nine starts to finish off one of the finest pitching seasons in the minors this year. He entered the year with good, not great, stuff across the board, but it all played up exceptionally well as he missed bats left and right while maintaining the above average command that helped him go in the first round. Viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter at draft time, Gilbert looks like he could be a true ace in the near future.

1-28: OF Seth Beer (Clemson -> Houston Astros -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
26 HR, .289/.388/.516, 0 SB, 113/46 K/BB, 155 wRC+ at High A and AA
At Clemson, Seth Beer put up some absolutely ridiculous numbers against strong ACC pitching, but his pronounced history of struggling with wood bats against top competition left teams wondering what his bat would look like in pro ball. Combine that with little to no defensive value and Beer was an enigmatic prospect to the fullest extent. He slashed .304/.389/.496 and reached Class A in his 67 game pro debut in 2018 after going to the Astros in the back of the first round, but his monster 2019 season got rid of any concerns that his bat would play up. After slashing .328/.414/.602 with nine home runs in 35 games at High A Fayetteville, he was quickly promoted to AA Corpus Christi, where he slashed .299/.407/.543 over 63 games before slumping to .205/.297/.318 after being traded to the Diamondbacks. Beer's big production proves he's much closer to the hitter he was at Clemson rather than the one he was over the summers, and this Seth Beer could have been a top ten pick with plate discipline, power, and the ability to get to it. He still won't provide any defensive value, but his bat will slot right into the middle of the Arizona lineup.

2-63: OF Alek Thomas (Mount Carmel [IL] HS -> Arizona Diamondbacks)
10 HR, .300/.379/.450, 15 SB, 105/52 K/BB, 140 wRC+ at Class A and High A
Thomas' numbers don't quite pop off the page like some of the names above him, but for a second rounder that was pegged as a fringy starter/possible fourth outfielder, he's certainly exceeded expectations by a long shot. Thomas started off at Class A Kane County and raked to the tune of a .312/.393/.479 line, eight home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 72/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games in the pitcher-friendly league. Aggressively promoted up to High A Visalia just a few months after his 19th birthday, he slashed a respectable .255/.327/.340 with a pair of home runs and a 33/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 games against advanced competition. We all knew that Thomas had an advanced feel for the game, but we questioned his tools. He showed that strong plate discipline and defense this year, but he also proved he could hit for impact, and that could be the difference between him developing into a fourth outfielder and a legitimate, dynamic, every day contributor.

CBB-72: RHP Josiah Gray (Le Moyne -> Cincinnati Reds -> Los Angeles Dodgers)
11-2, 2.28 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 147/31 K/BB in 130 IP at Class A, High A, and AA
Just as the Mets probably regret trading Jarred Kelenic, the Reds probably regret dealing Josiah Gray in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp deal. A shortstop when he first reached Division II Le Moyne College in Syracuse, New York, Gray transitioned to the mound and immediately showed a tremendous ceiling. A strong pro debut with Greeneville in the rookie level Appalachian League (2.58 ERA, 59/17 K/BB) in 2018 was an encouraging sign, but he proved in 2019 that he is much more advanced than originally anticipated and that he's flying towards that high ceiling. The Dodgers reasonably started him at Class A Great Lakes, but he put up a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a 26/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23.1 innings and he was quickly bumped to High A Rancho Cucamonga. There, he didn't miss a beat, posting a 2.14 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and an 80/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 67.1 innings. Up at AA Tulsa well shy of his 22nd birthday, he had a 2.75 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 41/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 39.1 innings. Gray is exceptionally athletic and we already knew he had solid stuff, but he sharpened everything this year while greatly improving his command and turning himself into the complete package as a potential #1 or #2 starter. Still a few months away from turning 22, Gray is progressing much more quickly than expected and could be next in the line of great Dodgers rookies.

Others: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1-11, Orioles), SS Nico Hoerner (1-24, Cubs), LHP Shane McClanahan (1-31, Rays), LHP Kris Bubic (2-40, Royals), RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson (2-48, Mets)

Stock Down
1-23: C Anthony Seigler (Cartersville [GA] HS -> New York Yankees)
0 HR, .175/.328/.206, 1 SB, 28/20 K/BB, 74 wRC+ at Class A
I wouldn't go calling Seigler a bust right away, but his lost 2019 season certainly didn't go as planned. After beginning the season in extended spring training, he debuted with Class A Charleston in June, and picked up multiple hits in three of his first six games, but he slumped hard over the next 24 and was slashing just .175/.328/.206 when a July cross-up with the pitcher ended his season with him taking a fastball of the knee. In his limited game action, Seigler showed strong plate discipline and feel for catching, but he showed virtually no impact with the bat. That's especially concerning given that his strong plate discipline proved that he wasn't exactly overmatched, so if Seigler doesn't start showing some authority at the plate in 2020, he's likely destined for back-up duty in the majors.

1-27: RHP Mason Denaburg (Merritt Island [FL] HS -> Washington Nationals)
1-1, 7.52 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 19/14 K/BB in 20.1 IP at complex level
The Nationals signed Denaburg to an over-slot $3 million deal knowing that he was dealing with biceps issues, hoping he'd be healthy and ready to be turned loose in 2019. Unfortunately, those biceps problems continued over into 2019, holding him out of game action until June. When he did finally get on the mound in the complex-level Gulf Coast League, he wasn't nearly as polished as advertised, posting a 7.52 ERA and walking 14 batters in 20.1 innings across seven appearances. His control regressed and his stuff flattened out, making 2019 a lost season in terms of his development. As a high school draftee, Denaburg only turned 20 in August, but he'll have a lot to prove in 2020, starting with getting healthy.

CBA-43: RHP Griffin Roberts (Wake Forest -> St. Louis Cardinals)
1-7, 6.44 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 36/35 K/BB in 65.2 IP at High A
It's a good thing that Cardinals' 2018 first rounder Nolan Gorman had a strong year, because it's gone just about as poorly as possible for competitive balance pick Griffin Roberts. Two positive tests for marijuana meant that he got slapped with a 50 game suspension to start the 2019 season, so he didn't make it into game action until June. Once he got on the mound for High A Palm Beach, he wasn't nearly as effective as advertised, walking nearly as many batters as he struck out while allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. While he wasn't necessarily known for his command at Wake Forest, it wasn't a weak spot, either, but it certainly was in 2019 when he walked 35 batters and hit 17 in 65.2 innings. His lethal fastball/slider combination, which he certainly was known for in college, played down in the FSL and he didn't miss nearly as many bats as hoped as he consistently fell into hitters' counts. Roberts has always pitched better out of the bullpen and it looks like that will be his best option going forward, where he can hopefully get back on track.

Others: OF Connor Scott (1-13, Marlins), RHP Cole Winn (1-15, Rangers), OF Jake McCarthy (CBA-39,  Diamondbacks), RHP Owen White (2-55, Rangers), RHP Jayson Schroeder (2-66, Astros)

Reviewing the Philadelphia Phillies Farm System

The Phillies are on the rise, and despite the slow start to 2016 first overall pick Mickey Moniak's career, so is their farm system. It's a balanced system that features plenty of both power and contact hitters, and the system is especially deep in pitching as they have managed to successfully develop many of their highly regarded arms into legitimate prospects.

Affiliates: AAA Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs, AA Reading Fightin Phils, High A Clearwater Threshers, Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, Short Season Williamsport Crosscutters, complex level GCL and DSL Phillies

The Headliner: RHP Sixto Sanchez
The first time I saw now-20 year old Sixto Sanchez pitch was in 2017 when his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws visited the Orioles' Delmarva Shorebirds. I don't remember the exact velocities, but the first at bat of the game, against the unfortunate Cole Billingsley, went something like this: 98 MPH for strike one, 99 for strike two, 100 just low for ball one, and lastly a disgusting curveball that Billingsley swung over top of for strike three. Sixto was just 18 at the time while Billingsley was 23, and Billingsley did not stand a chance. Sanchez was soon promoted to High A Clearwater, but he had to return there this season as he battled elbow inflammation, still posting a 2.51 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 45/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 46.2 innings. He's just six feet tall and won't even be able to drink legally until July, but he throws his fastball in the mid to upper 90's while adding a very good curveball and changeup, all three of which he can command very well. He can also manipulate his fastball to get movement on it down in the mid 90's range, and the overall package gives him true ace upside. Signed for just $35,000 as a 16 year old out of the Dominican Republic, he has developed  a very special right arm that could have made him the top pitching prospect in baseball had he been healthy this season, but he is nonetheless one of the top prospects in the game and should be joining Aaron Nola at the top of the Philadelphia rotation soon.

Drafted Bats: OF Cornelius Randolph, OF Mickey Moniak, OF Adam Haseley, 3B Alec Bohm, OF Dylan Cozens, and OF Matt Vierling
The Phillies have had some high draft picks recently and have used their last four first round picks on bats with mixed results. I'll start in 2015, when they took now-21 year old Cornelius Randolph with their first pick (tenth overall) out of a Georgia high school, and he has been fairly disappointing so far. He was at his best by slashing .250/.338/.402 with 13 home runs at High A Clearwater in 2017, but he dropped to .241/.324/.322 with just five home runs and a 92/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Reading this year. As a so-so defender in left field, his bat is his true calling card, so he'll have to reverse whatever happened in 2018 if he wants to stay relevant as a prospect. At his best, he shows a knack for hard contact, a patient approach, and an overall balanced skill set at the plate, but it hasn't clicked yet for any extended period of time at this point. In 2016, the Phillies selected another outfielder who is off to a slow start, first overall pick and now-20 year old Mickey Moniak. After a mediocre 2017 (5 HR, .236/.284/.341 at Class A Lakewood), he put up only slightly better numbers in 2018 by slashing .270/.304/.383 with five more home runs and a 100/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Clearwater. Fortunately for Phillies fans, Moniak heated up in the second half after slashing .254/.272/.321 with a 56/5 strikeout to walk ratio in the first half, moving that up to a .286/.332/.442 line and a 44/17 ratio after the break. He's skinny at 6'2" but doesn't look like he has much room to add more weight, his speed being his best tool. At the plate, he's more of a line drive/gap hitter than a power hitter, and while it's increasingly unlikely that he develops more than average pop, I still think there is a chance he can be an above average hitter both when it comes to getting on base and hitting for power. Defensively he may be able to stick in center field, his work ethic and feel for the game helping him in that regard. Don't expect a future star out of Moniak at this point, but he could still be a productive big league regular if he gets back on track. Now-22 year old Adam Haseley was the Phillies' first round pick (eighth overall) in 2017, and unlike Randolph and Moniak, he has had plenty of success. In 2018, he slashed .305/.361/.433 with 11 home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 73/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at Clearwater and Reading with no loss of production after the promotion, even when accounting for league/ballpark differences (Reading is very hitter friendly; Clearwater and the Florida State League in general, not so much). He is a very balanced player who makes easy contact and rarely gets fooled at the plate, runs well, may be able to stick in center field defensively, and hits for just enough power to justify calling him an "impact bat." His walk rate is fairly low, but that is okay given his low strikeout rate and general knack for base hits. At this point, he has a high floor as a fourth outfielder because even if his development stagnates from here on out, he's good enough today to at least handle major league pitching. This past year, the Phillies took now-22 year old Alec Bohm out of Wichita State with the third overall pick, who then slashed a moderately disappointing .252/.335/.324 with a 23/12 strikeout to walk ratio and without a home run in 40 games between complex ball and short season Williamsport. Small sample slow start aside, Bohm is truly an impact bat who can hit for power while also getting on base at a high rate, giving him middle of the order upside. At 6'5", he can blast balls a long way, and his plate discipline has improved consistently enough that it's easy to envision him adding more power without adding too many strikeouts. Defensively, he has work to do if he wants to stick at third base, but the bat will play even if he is forced to move over to first base and despite the slow start; don't worry about 40 games in complex/short season ball. Moving off of first round picks, 24 year old Dylan Cozens was a second round pick way back in 2012 from high school near Phoenix, and though his trip through the minors has been slow, he's just about ready for the majors. The 6'6" outfielder was long considered a projectable bat who could add a ton of power, then after hitting 38 home runs over his first four pro seasons from 2012-2015, he crushed 40 with (hitter friendly) Reading in 2016 then followed that up with 27 at AAA Lehigh Valley in 2017. This past year, he slashed .246/.345/.529 with 21 home runs and a 124/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games back at Lehigh Valley, then slashed .158/.273/.289 with one home run in a 26 game stint with the Phillies. His raw power is arguably the best in the system, possibly better than that of Bohm and Jhailyn Ortiz (more on Ortiz in the next section), but he strikes out far too much at this point and will have to make adjustments to survive at the major league level. I definitely don't see him as having an Aaron Judge-type breakout (Judge faced the same problems in the minors), but just a small improvement in his contact ability could make him a valuable pinch hitter or platoon bat and a big one (less likely) could make him an every day player down the road. Lastly, 22 year old Matt Vierling was a fifth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2018 who caught fire in the minors and slashed .321/.365/.496 with seven home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games between Williamsport and Lakewood, handling the promotion to full season ball well and slashing .293/.342/.473 in his 50 games there. He has no standout tool but does a little bit of everything well, showing some power, on-base ability, and speed, as well as a strong arm from the outfield. He's likely a fourth outfielder down the road, but with his balanced skill set, lack of a glaring weakness, and hot start to his minor league career, more certainly is possible.

International Bats: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, 2B Daniel Brito, SS Arquimedes Gamboa, and SS Luis Garcia
The Phillies aren't as deep in bats signed internationally as they are with those they drafted, especially with Jose Gomez's disappointing season in High A, but there are a few bright spots here. 20 year old Jhailyn Ortiz hasn't quite lived up to his $4 million signing bonus from back in 2015, but he's still a solid prospect who slashed .225/.297/.375 with 13 home runs and a 148/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 games at Class A Lakewood. He packs tremendous raw power into his 6'3" frame, though South Atlantic League pitching found holes in his swing and was able to exploit them in 2018. Defensively, he has worked hard to remain in the outfield, where his strong arm helps him out, but he will have to start getting to his power consistently if he wants to remain one of the Phillies more well-regarded prospects. High A will be a real test in 2019, but he won't turn 21 until after the season and he has a chance to really define himself as a prospect. A tough transition will mean that Phillies fans will have to be patient and play more wait-and-see and I-wonder-if, but a few tweaks in his approach and a good season could take him from projection bat to true impact prospect. 21 year olds Daniel Brito and Arquimedes Gamboa find themselves in similar positions to each other, both coming off seasons where they didn't hit quite as well as hoped in A ball. Brito has the slightly better bat and he slashed .252/.307/.342 with four home runs, 16 stolen bases, and an 83/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at Lakewood and High A Clearwater, while Gamboa, with the better glove, slashed just .214/.304/.279 with two home runs, six stolen bases, and a 111/53 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games, all at Clearwater. Both lack much power and will have to rely on getting on base to move forward, and both have good enough approaches at the plate that they can realistically get by without power. Brito, a second baseman who has steadily improved his defense and should be above average there, has shown just a little more sock in his bat and probably has a better chance to hit at the major league level, while Gamboa is a good defender at shortstop who will need to do at least something offensively in order to keep moving up. At this point, both look like future utility infielders if they can't get the bats going, but both will also spend the whole season at 21 years old with plenty of A ball experience under their belt. Lastly, 18 year old Luis Garcia (not to be confused with ex-Phillies/now Angels reliever Luis Garcia or highly-regarded Nationals prospect Luis Garcia) was just signed for $2.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in 2017 and spent 2018 in complex ball, slashing .369/.433/.488 with one home run, 12 stolen bases, and a 21/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 games with the Phillies' Gulf Coast League affiliate. It was an exceptional debut for a 17 year old who skipped over the Dominican Summer League entirely as he sprayed line drives all over the park, showed great awareness of the strike zone, and played great defense at shortstop. Now, it's very important to take complex level (and even rookie/short season) stats with a grain of salt, as competition in the GCL varies from other Latin American teenagers, recent draftees, and higher-level players on rehab assignments, but you can't play much better than Garcia did and given the high expectations coming into the season, he's in a great spot. At 5'11", he's unlikely to develop much power, but his defense at shortstop will take the pressure off his bat and with his on-base ability, he could be one of the top prospects in the system a year from now.

High Minors Arms: LHP Cole Irvin, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Enyel De Los Santos, RHP Drew Anderson, LHP JoJo Romero, and RHP Connor Seabold
The Phillies have a good group of arms that are near-major league ready, and that's a very good thing considering the team is just beginning what it hopes will be a long stretch of contention. Interestingly, most of the pitchers in this group are about command over stuff, so they may end up with an abundance of back-end starters who can be used as trade bait. 24 year old Cole Irvin is the most complete pitcher up at the top, coming off a very strong year where he went 14-4 with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and a 131/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 161.1 innings at AAA Lehigh Valley. With his low 90's fastball and full arsenal of average pitches from the left side, he has no true out pitch but mixes and locates everything extremely well, making all of his pitches play up and giving him a very good shot at sticking in the majors as a back-end, innings eating starter. He's already in the mix for a back-end spot out of spring training, and if he doesn't get it then, his name should be called upon early in the season. He'll be competing with 23 year old Ranger Suarez, a 6'1" lefty who posted a 2.75 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 85/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at AA Reading and Lehigh Valley, also adding 15 major league innings with a 5.40 ERA and an 11/6 strikeout to walk ratio. He's a fairly similar pitcher to Irvin who has moved through the minor leagues just as quickly, though his stuff is a hair better and his overall feel for pitching is just a hair behind. Unlike with Irvin, his changeup stands out among his other pitches and it, rather than an excellent feel for pitching like Irvin's, makes his other pitches play up. His command is just as good as Irvin's and it will be interesting to see who can hang on to that back-end spot, if not both. 23 year old Enyel De Los Santos, over from San Diego in the Freddy Galvis trade, is a different pitcher from both Irvin and Suarez and posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and a 110/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.2 innings at Lehigh Valley as well as a 4.74 ERA and a 15/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 19 major league innings. He's a 6'3" righty whose fastball sits in the mid 90's and who adds a good changeup, but while Irvin and Suarez get by on their command, De Los Santos is closer to average in that regard. When he's hitting his spots, he can be a better pitcher than both, but of course the opposite is true when he isn't. He also comes with more reliever risk, but his stuff would play up in the bullpen and he could be very valuable in that regard. Watching the three of them battle for starts will be very interesting in 2019. 24 year old Drew Anderson is also in that mix, though I think he'll be the first of the four to end up in the bullpen after posting a 3.87 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, and an 84/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 104.2 innings at Lehigh Valley this year. He has a low to mid 90's fastball plays up because of its movement, but he otherwise has fringe-average stuff that he controls pretty well. Despite the extra velocity, he's not quite on the same tier as Irvin and Suarez in terms of control types because his arsenal is not as deep and he hasn't been able to stay on the mound as consistently, but I think he could do well in the bullpen as soon as this season. Lastly, 22 year old JoJo Romero put himself firmly on the map with a huge 2017 in A ball (2.16 ERA, 128/36 K/BB) and followed that up with a solid run through AA in 2018, posting a 3.80 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and a 100/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 106.2 innings with Reading. He's listed closer to the end of this section because he probably won't be major league ready straight out of spring training, but it is plausible that he ends up with the best career in the group. While he has no single standout swing and miss pitch, he can throw pretty much any pitch in the book but a knuckleball, giving him plenty of weapons to use in any count and any situation, and unlike many young pitchers with such deep arsenals, he commands everything pretty well. The six foot lefty is crafty and has a very nice combination of ceiling and floor, and he has mid-rotation upside if he can stay healthy and maintain his ability to hit his spots with all of his pitches. 23 year old Connor Seabold is a control type who posted a 4.28 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 132/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 130.1 innings at High A Clearwater and Reading, keeping runners off the bases but also falling victim to the home run ball when he missed his spots in AA. Though his ERA jumped from 3.77 in High A to 4.91 in AA, he continued to be effective and even upped his strikeout rate from 23.8% to 25.5%, a modest jump but impressive nonetheless considering he was just drafted out of Cal State Fullerton in the third round (83rd overall) in 2017. Like Irvin, none of his pitches stand out, but he hits his spots consistently enough that hitters don't get many mistakes to try to do something with. He has back-end potential.

Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP Kyle Dohy, RHP Adonis Medina, LHP David Parkinson, LHP Will Stewart, LHP Kyle Young, and RHP Francisco Morales
While most of the upper-minors pitchers are advanced control-types who get by more on instincts than stuff, there's more variation in the guys who aren't quite as close to the major leagues. In this group, Sixto Sanchez aside, 22 year old Kyle Dohy is the closest to the majors in this group, and he put up a crazy season statistically with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 111/42 strikeout to walk ratio over just 67.1 innings at Class A Lakewood, High A Clearwater, and AA Reading. He's a 6'2" left handed reliever with a great fastball/slider combination that misses bats in bunches and helped him strike out 40.7% of those he faced in 2018 (including 47.7% over 33.2 innings at Lakewood). However, his stuff also misses the strike zone as often as it misses bats, and he walked 15.4% of his opponents this year including 21.8% over his 22.2 innings at Reading. If he gets his command closer to average, he could be in the major leagues as soon as 2019, and in the long run he could be a very useful bullpen arm in Philadelphia. However, if he can't start at least getting close to hitting his spots, his stuff isn't quite electric enough to keep him from getting shelled in the major leagues. 22 year old Adonis Medina made it up to Clearwater in 2018 and posted a 4.12 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 123/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.1 innings, which was not quite the breakout season the Phillies were hoping for out of their young righty but still solid. He throws his fastball in the low to mid 90's and adds solid secondary stuff in a slider and a changeup, and they along with his command have been sharp enough for him to post very good component ratios in A ball over the past two seasons. As it stands, he looks like a guy with mid-rotation upside and a larger possibility of ending up in the back-end of the rotation, but the Phillies are high on him and think he has a very good shot of reaching his ceiling. 2019 and his transition to AA should be enlightening. 23 year old David Parkinson absolutely dominated A ball in 2018, going 11-1 with a 1.45 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 141/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 124.1 innings at Lakewood and Clearwater, though most of the season was spent facing younger competition down in Lakewood. The 2017 12th round pick out of Ole Miss made his average stuff play up in his first full pro season, and he has a much better chance to stick as a back-end starter than he did a year ago. The strong stint with Clearwater (1.24 ERA, 26/9 K/BB in 29 IP) was probably better news than the equally strong 95.1 innings in Lakewood considering his age relative to his competition, but it will be important to see if his stuff holds up over a longer run through High A and in AA this coming season to really feel confident about his future as a starter. 21 year old Will Stewart also had a dominating run through Lakewood, going 8-1 with a 2.06 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 90/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings. He's more of a sleeper prospect as a lefty without a ton of velocity, a high draft pedigree (20th round out of high school in Alabama in 2015), or a quick rise through the minors. Still, he makes his good command of a low 90's fastball and a very good changeup work for him, and because he was young for his class when he was drafted, he's not behind age-wise even though he didn't reach full season ball until his fourth pro season. The Phillies do very well with these types of guys (see Cole Irvin, Ranger Suarez, Connor Seabold up higher in the system) and while he looks more like a back-end starter right now, he could be a more well-known name come next season with success in High A. 21 year old Kyle Young posted a 2.73 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP, and a 50/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.1 innings mostly with Lakewood, and he's particularly interesting because he's just so darn tall. Standing 6'10" and coming at hitters from the left side, he throws fastballs that look like they're getting released right in front of your face and commands everything well for someone of his stature. While he doesn't throw as hard as a certain other 6'10" lefty (see Johnson, Randy), that command gives him a leg up and could make him a similar pitcher to right hander Chris Young (no relation). Injury risk is present though as he missed time in 2018 with elbow trouble, and personally there are quite a few other pitchers in this system that I see as better prospects. Lastly, 19 year old Francisco Morales doesn't quite have the numbers yet, but he's a high upside guy down in the low minors. The 6'4" righty posted a 5.27 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP, and a 68/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 56.1 innings with short season Williamsport in 2018, showing a low to mid 90's fastball and emerging secondary stuff. There is a lot he needs to work on, but the Phillies are high on him and with a big, durable frame, they see more velocity coming, with further improving his command and secondaries being the next lines on the to-do list. Think of him as a wild card for now, but he'll be interesting to track as a teenager in Class A next season.

2018 Draft Review: Philadelphia Phillies

First 5 rounds: Alec Bohm (1-3), Colton Eastman (4-107), Matt Vierling (5-137)
Also notable: Logan Simmons (6-167), Dominic Pipken (9-257), Madison Stokes (10-287), Jack Perkins (11-317), Jesse Wilkening (14-407)

The Phillies didn't have second or third round picks due to signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana, but they still made the most of what they had. They started off with three straight college players before using the money they saved on first rounder Alec Bohm to go significantly over slot on their seventh, ninth, twelfth, and sixteenth round picks, thereby recouping a lot of the value they lost in not having those picks. It was a well-played chess game by Phillies management this year, and they'll be able to inject some talent into a system that has been becoming top-heavy and pitching-heavy.

1-3: 3B Alec Bohm (my rank: 7)
The Phillies' system is both top-heavy and pitching-heavy, so injecting some elite offensive talent into the system here with the third overall pick works out very well for them. Bohm played third base at Wichita State, slashing .339/.436/.625 with 16 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 games, showing elite power, contact, and patience at the plate. He actually managed to hit those 16 home runs with a bit of a loopy swing that has room to add more power, and because he has such good barrel control and an eye at the plate (10.5% strikeout rate), he can make that change without sacrificing much contact. In Philadelphia, he's a guy who could hit 30-40 home runs per season while also getting on base at a .400 clip, making him a middle-of-the-order threat who could anchor this lineup as a best case scenario. His glove is nothing special, and there is a decent chance he has to move from third base to first base, but it's the bat the Phillies are buying and he has the best combination of ceiling and floor of all bats this year. He signed for $5.85 million, saving the Phillies nearly $1.1 million in bonus space. He slashed .500/.571/.667 with a 0/1 strikeout to walk ratio in five games in the rookie level Gulf Coast League, but his slashing just .176/.222/.206 with a 6/1 ratio in nine games since being promoted to the short season level New York-Penn League.

4-107: RHP Colton Eastman (my rank: 76)
In the third round of the 2017 draft, the Phillies picked up a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Connor Seabold. In the fourth round in 2018, they grabbed a 6'3" pitchability righty out of Cal State Fullerton named Colton Eastman. It has gone well with Seabold and he's already in AA, so I guess the Phillies figured having two of the same guy would be cool. Eastman finished his junior season 10-4 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, striking out 124 and walking 28 in 117.2 innings, and the most impressive part was that the ERA and WHIP were both career worsts. That puts his career line at 20-7, 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 261/64 K/BB over 250 innings. Not bad. His stuff has kind of fluctuated throughout his career, but as it stands now, his fastball doesn't get too far above 90 while his curve looks good and his changeup looks better. His fastball is a little slower than it once was, his curve is a little better, and his changeup is a little worse, but the Phillies do well with pitching and will hope to get all three pitches to the top of their potential at the same time. He doesn't have pinpoint command, but the control is well above average and it all comes together as a fairly safe back of the rotation profile. He signed for $522,900, right at slot.

5-137: OF Matt Vierling (unranked)
Vierling is one of those guys that does a little bit of everything well. At Notre Dame, he slashed .310/.402/.505 with ten home runs and a 28/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 54 games as a junior, showing moderate power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. He also made six appearances out of the Irish bullpen. He profiles more as a back-up at the major league level, but even a small step forward in his offensive game could make him a starting right or center fielder. He has an advanced approach at the plate, and with that moderate power, he could hit 15-20 home runs per season with on-base percentages around .350 at his best. On defense, he has a cannon arm and may have enough speed to stick in center, which would make it easier for him to start, though right field is a possibility. He signed for $380,000, which is $10,600 below slot, and has gotten off to a hot start in the minors. In 12 games in the New York-Pen League, he slashed .420/.453/.580 with a home run and a 2/3 strikeout to walk ratio, and has collected three hits in seven at bats (.429 AVG) since being promoted to Class A Lakewood.

9-257: RHP Dominic Pipken (my rank: 88)
Pipken was a top three rounds talent, but fell to the ninth because of signability. The 6'4" right hander out of high school in the East Bay north of Oakland has good present stuff and a lot of projectability. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's from an easy delivery, so it is easy to dream on mid 90's velocity when all is said and done. His offspeeds are more of a work in progress, though his slider does have good shape and could be a plus pitch with pro refinement. He doesn't have the best command at this point and has been inconsistent this spring, so it's a high risk pick, but there is high reward as well. He signed for $800,000, which is $646,400 above slot.

Others: 6th rounder Logan Simmons is an infielder out of high school in Macon, Georgia that has a high ceiling, low floor profile. A shortstop at this point, he may have to move to third base, but that's not a given. His bat is where the variance lies, as he has plenty of power from the right side but has often struggled with contact, even at the high school level. If the Phillies can streamline his swing and cut his strikeouts down significantly, he has the upside of a starting shortstop with power, but if he struggles with contact and has to move to third base, it'll be a tough road forward. His $750,000 signing bonus was $457,300 above slot. 10th rounder Madison Stokes played four years at South Carolina, finishing it off with a .322/.414/.579 slash line, 11 home runs, and a 44/29 strikeout to walk ratio in his senior season. He can play all over the field, including shortstop, and combined with his offensive profile, he has a good chance at hitting his way to a utility role in the majors. His $10,000 signing bonus also saved the Phillies $132,600 in slot space. 11th rounder Jack Perkins may not be as famous as his teammate in the Stetson rotation, Mariners first rounder Logan Gilbert, but he was nearly as effective. Over 18 games (17 starts), he went 11-3 with a 2.80 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 108/32 strikeout to walk ratio in 106 innings. He held his own in the Cape Cod League (4.97 ERA, 22/11 K/BB) and projects as a back-end starter with the potential for more if he can add velocity, considering his projectable 6'4" frame and late birthday (turns 21 in August). 14th rounder Jesse Wilkening had a breakout year as Nebraska's catcher this year, slashing .372/.445/.588 with nine home runs and a 36/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He's very capable defensively with good all around actions, and he has shown the ability to get on base and hit for some power. It's a backup catcher profile, but some steps forward at the plate could land him in a starting role.

2018 MLB Draft: Top 5 Third Basemen

Much like in the majors, third base is absolutely loaded in this class, with five players having the potential to go in the first round, three of which could go in the top half. Some of these guys could move to first base, but those who can stick at third have less pressure on their bats than their first base counterparts, and many of the game's best players today man the hot corner.

1. Alec Bohm (Wichita State)
Part of one of the best one-two punches in the middle of any lineup in college baseball, Bohm took off this year with 16 home runs and a .339/.436/.625 slash line, walking way more (39) than he struck out (28). Though he'll probably need a slight swing change to get to his power more often in pro ball, the power is real right now, and he is arguably the best present hitter in the class. He destroyed the Cape Cod League as well (5 HR, .351/.399/.513, 21/12 K/BB), and for a power hitter, it is very difficult to get the ball by him. His defense at third base is just adequate, and he might have to move to first base eventually, but he's got plenty of bat to profile there and could end up an All Star. He's unlikely to fall out of the top ten picks.

2. Jonathan India (Florida)
While it's hard to view Bohm as anything but the best third baseman in the class, Jonathan India is making it tough to call it a slam dunk. Despite facing SEC pitching, which is the toughest in the NCAA, he still slashed .364/.504/.733 with 18 home runs and more walks (49) than strikeouts (48) for the Gators. Those ridiculous numbers were the product of better pitch recognition and improved physical shape, and projects to impact the game in a lot of ways as a pro. While he will never have Bohm's power, he matches him in bat to ball ability with a quick swing and strong wrists, and his defense is good enough that he can be a net positive in the field. He also runs well. The only thing knocking him down is the question of whether his power will play with wood bats, as he carries just a .398 slugging percentage and one home run over 36 career games in the Cape Cod League and his power comes more through quick and strong wrists than it does through whip or loft in his swing. He'll likely join Bohm in the top half of the first round.

3. Nolan Gorman (O'Connor HS, AZ)
Gorman has arguably the best power in the high school class, having won a pair of home run derbies on the showcase circuit and showing quick hands and a powerful swing that gets the job done with regularity. He sometimes struggles with breaking balls, which might push him to the second half of the first round, but he hit well on the showcase circuit and it's not a huge issue. His swing is long and he swings and misses some when he gets his hands going too late, but he is receptive to coaching and could be a power hitting starter at the next level. His defense is just alright, but he does have a chance to stay at third. He's committed to Arizona.

4. Jeremy Eierman (Missouri State)
Eierman isn't as safe a bet as the other two college hitters ahead of him, but he offers just as much ceiling as India. He had an excellent sophomore season in 2017, slashing .313/.431/.675 with 23 home runs, but he changed his approach this year to try to hit more home runs and it backfired, leading to a .292/.385/.525 line with ten home runs this year. Originally considered a shortstop prospect, he's now looking more like a third baseman, but he should have above average defense there. Scouts like his grinder mentality, so if he can get back to his old approach at the plate with pro coaching, he has the ability to be a power hitting, slick fielding third baseman. However, even with his old approach, he struck out 20.3% of the time as a sophomore, which could lead to problems down the road. He probably falls out of the first round, but not by too much.

5. Jordan Groshans (Magnolia HS, TX)
Magnolia High School, which sits just past the very edge of the subdivided northwestern Houston suburbs, might have two players picked in the first round in Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans is considered the slightly better prospect of the two, showing a clean swing, good power/contact balance, and good enough defense to stay at third base. Nothing really stands out about him, but he's competent across the board, and if a pro team can add some lift to his flat swing, he could have above average power while still getting on base at a good clip. He's committed to Kansas, where his brother plays.

Others: Nander De Sedas (Montverde Academy, FL), Nick Northcut (Mason HS, OH), Cory Acton (American Heritage HS, FL)