2020 Awards Picks: Rookies, Relievers, and Managers

 Following up my MVP's and Cy Young's, below is how I would vote for the Rookie of the Year and Reliever of the Year and why. I will not be picking a Manager of the Year because I don't believe I'm qualified given that I haven't been around these men.

AL Rookie of the Year: OF Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners
Stat line: 11 HR, .262/.364/.437, 5 SB, 126 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR in 58 games.
After white-hot starts from Kyle Lewis and Luis Robert, we didn't end up with any true standouts in this race, and there are a lot of players jumbled right at the top for me. Personally, I lean Lewis here, but I would not argue Cristian Javier and you could make a compelling case for Robert, Shaun Murphy, or even James Karinchak. I chose Lewis for a couple of reasons, not the least of which is the size of his body of work. He led all American League rookies with 242 plate appearances and tied for the lead with 58 games played, and looked good doing it. His eleven home runs also tied for the lead and his 1.7 fWAR finished first, on pace for nearly five in a full season. I was particularly impressed by his willingness to take a walk, and his 34 led all AL rookies by a wide margin over second place Yoshi Tsutsugo's 26. Lewis was also a solid defender in the Seattle outfield and stole five bases to boot, truly contributing in every facet for the Mariners.

Runner-up: RHP Cristian Javier, Houston Astros
Stat line: 5-2, 3.48 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 54/18 KBB in 54.1 IP.
I was a big fan of what Cristian Javier pulled off this year as a 23 year old, leading all AL rookies (min. 35 innings) in ERA (3.48) and WHIP (1.00) in a year where the baseballs were flying farther off of bats than they ever have. Javier allowed just 36 hits in 54.1 innings, and with the exception of one rough start against the AL West champion A's, he allowed no more than three runs in eleven of his twelve appearances. He also went at least five innings in seven of his ten starts, which might not sound particularly impressive, but in 2020 managers had very, very short leashes for their young pitchers and Javier managed to extend his. As far as leaderboards go, beyond ERA and WHIP, he was third in strikeouts (54) and fourth in innings (54.1), though he also led in home runs allowed (11).

Honorable mention: C Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
Stat line: 7 HR, .233/.364/.457, 0 SB, 131 wRC+, 1.5 fWAR in 43 games.
Sean Murphy may have only appeared in 43 games, less than three quarters of the season, but he made a big impact. It's very, very hard nowadays to find good catching, and Murphy's 1.5 fWAR put him fourth among all AL catchers, rookie or not rookie. He blasted seven home runs (a 19 HR pace) and got on base at a .364 clip despite playing at a pitcher-friendly home park, and he held his own with strong defense behind the dish. He caught fire in September and slashed .277/.424/.638 with five home runs over his final 16 games, really helping the A's compensate for the loss of Matt Chapman. Overall though, it goes back to the second sentence of this paragraph: it's very hard to find Good Catching and Sean Murphy was a Good Catcher.

Others: OF Luis Robert (CWS, 1.5 fWAR), SS Willi Castro (DET, 1.3 fWAR), RHP James Karinchak (CLE, 2.67 ERA), LHP Justus Sheffield (SEA, 3.58 ERA), RHP Brady Singer (KC, 4.06 ERA).

NL Rookie of the Year: RHP Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Stat line: 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 12.63 RE24, 53/9 K/BB in 27 IP.
I'm not a big fan of giving awards such as the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year to relievers, but come on, you can't pitch much better than Williams did this year. A 0.33 ERA, just eight hits and nine walks in 27 innings, and a ridiculous 53 strikeouts in 100 plate appearances are just unreal. His 12.63 RE24, which I think is a pretty good stat with which to measure relievers, led all MLB relievers, AL or NL and rookie or not rookie. He allowed three unearned runs against one earned run, but even if you add those three into his RA9, it still sits at a clean 1.33. After a tough second outing of the year in Pittsburgh, he finished it off with 24.2 shutout innings (one unearned run), a 0.53 WHIP, and a 49/7 strikeout to walk ratio over his final 20 appearances. That changeup, man. It's untouchable.

Runner-up: RHP Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stat line: 2-2, 2.31 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 46/7 K/BB in 46.2 IP.
Tony Gonsolin may have only pitched 46.2 innings and won only two games, but I don't think he could have pitched much better than he did when he was on the mound. He allowed just 32 hits, and perhaps more impressively, only seven walks in those 46.2 innings for a ridiculous 0.84 WHIP, and his 2.31 ERA was second among NL rookies (min. 35 innings). In his nine appearances, he allowed zero or one earned runs six times, and he only walked multiple batters in an outing once. He didn't allow a run over his first three starts and saw only eight baserunners in those 14.2 innings, and on September 20th, he struck out ten in a very impressive start at Coors Field. In a year where baseballs were absolutely flying, everything he did becomes all the more impressive.

Honorable mention: 3B Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
Stat line: 4 HR, .338/.400/.481, 1 SB, 138 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR in 44 games.
Alec Bohm, like Gonsolin, didn't play the whole season, appearing in just under three quarters of his team's games. However, it's hard to argue with a .338/.400/.481 slash line just two years after he was drafted out of Wichita State. Bohm led National League rookies in hits (54) and RBI (23), and when you set the minimum at 100 plate appearances, he led in all three slash categories as well. He wasn't a superstar at third base but he held his own at a tough position, and overall there wasn't a greater sum of offensive production among any NL rookies. Jake Cronenworth may have played ten mores games with a strong season of his own, but he only had twelve more plate appearances and I don't think that's enough to make up for the gap in production.

Others: 2B Jake Cronenworth (SD, 1.4 fWAR), RHP Dustin May (LAD, 2.57 ERA), 3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT, 1.7 fWAR), LHP Kwang Hyun Kim (STL, 1.62 ERA), RHP Ian Anderson (ATL, 1.95 ERA).

AL Reliever of the Year: RHP Liam Hendriks, Oakland A's
Stat line: 1.78 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 8.17 RE24, 37/3 K/BB in 25.1 IP.
Liam Hendriks was my 2019 AL Reliever of the Year when he put up a 1.80 ERA and a 124/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 85 innings, and he will repeat again in 2020. When you combine in 2020's 1.78 ERA and 37/3 strikeout to walk ratio this year, he has a 1.79 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 161/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 110.1 innings since the start of last year. In addition to walking just three batters (one intentionally) this whole season, he also allowed just 14 hits in 25.1 innings, so Hendriks very rarely even had to pitch out of the stretch. Combine Hendriks with Jake Diekman (0.42 ERA, 31/12 K/BB) and JB Wendelken (1.80 ERA, 31/11 K/BB), and you can see why the A's did so well this year. I don't think this 2020 season quite matches what he did in 2019, but from just 2019-2020, Liam Hendriks has been the best relief pitcher in baseball.

Runner-Up: RHP Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 1.88 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 8.38 RE24, 31/6 K/BB in 24 IP.
Tyler Duffey barely hung on the Twins' roster from 2016-2018, but was very strong with a 2.50 ERA and an 82/14 strikeout to walk ratio in 2019, then took it to another level with a 1.88 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and a 31/6 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings in 2020. Those 24 innings saw him allow just 13 hits and six walks, so just like Hendriks, he was very rarely even in trouble on the mound. There's no single area where Duffey was particularly exceptional, but he was very strong by every measure and the end result was one of the best seasons we saw out of an AL reliever this year.

Others: RHP Codi Heuer (CWS, 1.52 ERA), RHP Nick Anderson (TB, 0.55 ERA), RHP Jesse Hahn (KC, 0.52 ERA).

NL Reliever of the Year: RHP Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
Stat line: 0.33 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 12.63 RE24, 53/9 K/BB in 27 IP.
See his rookie section. Devin Williams was untouchable. Nobody is even remotely close to him here.

Runner-up: RHP Chris Martin, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 1.00 ERA, 0.61 WHIP, 6.72 RE24, 20/3 K/BB in 18 IP.
There really weren't any standouts behind Williams, so with all of 18 innings pitched to his name, Chris Martin was the second best reliever in the National League last year. In those 18 innings, he allowed just eight hits, three walks (one intentional), and one hit batsman for a ridiculous 0.61 WHIP that bested even Williams. He struck out 20 of the 66 batters he faced (30%) and only allowed multiple baserunners in two of his 19 appearances. In the other 17, it was zero or one baserunners for his opponents.

Others: LHP Adam Kolarek (LAD, 0.95 ERA), LHP Drew Pomeranz (SD, 1.45 ERA), RHP Edwin Diaz (NYM, 1.75 ERA).

2020 Awards Picks: MVP's and Cy Young's

If I were given a vote, below would be my picks for the AL and NL MVP and Cy Young Awards.

AL MVP: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
I think most people would prefer to choose a hitter as an MVP, but in a year in which not one American League hitter put up a 1.000 OPS while staying healthy for the whole two months, the door was opened for Shane Bieber and his unbelievable season. With all due respect to strong seasons from Jose Ramirez, DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, and of course Mike Trout, it's a pretty easy pick for me to choose Bieber. Bieber led all AL pitchers in wins, ERA, and strikeouts and had the second best WHIP, and he did so with the second most innings in the league. With Francisco Lindor stumbling to a .258/.335/.415 slash line, the Indians really struggled to score runs with a lineup that saw only Ramirez break even an .800 OPS. The Tribe could not afford bad starts this year, and Bieber went at least five innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his twelve starts. In fact, he allowed zero or one earned runs in seven of his twelve starts, putting even a futile Cleveland offense in position to win every single time he took the mound. And without his contributions, they would have been no better than a seven or eight seed, rather than the four seed they ended up with. The crowning achievement of his season likely came in just his second start, when he limited the eventual AL Central champion Twins to three baserunners over eight shutout innings while striking out thirteen.

Runner-Up: 3B Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 17 HR, .292/.386/.607, 10 SB, 163 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR in 58 games.
Behind Shane Bieber, the AL MVP race is pretty jumbled, with five players finishing with an OPS between .987 and 1.011, none of which were particularly standout defenders. Jose Ramirez didn't actually lead the league in anything besides his 3.4 fWAR and 45 runs scored, but instead, was simply Very Good in lots of areas. He finished second in OPS (.993), third in home runs (17), doubles (16), RBI (46), and slugging percentage (.607), fifth in wRC+ (163) and stolen bases (10), and sixth in on-base percentage (.386). On an Indians team that absolutely could not hit, he was the only player with above an .800 OPS and essentially carried the entire offense. Bieber shut down the AL and NL Central divisions on his own, but when he wasn't on the mound, Ramirez was often tasked with single-handedly keeping pace with the Twins, White Sox, Cubs, and Cardinals offenses. His numbers need a slight asterisk because he wasn't facing the most difficult schedule in the Central division, but with good defense and baserunning ability that could not be matched by anybody in his realm of the MVP range, in addition to playing in all but two of the Indians' games, he still gets the edge.

Honorable Mention: OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Stat line: 17 HR, .281/.390/.603, 1 SB, 164 wRC+, 2.6 fWAR in 53 games.
If Mike Trout hadn't missed a few games for the birth of his son, I think he would clearly have the third spot, but at this point it's so close that I wouldn't argue with DJ LeMahieu, Jose Abreu, or even Anthony Rendon in this spot. Trout gets the slight edge because even though he only played in 53 games (T-45th in the AL), he still collected 241 plate appearances that had him tied for 15th in the league. Throw in 17 home runs and nearly a .400 on-base percentage, and you're pretty darn close to an MVP, never mind that his .993 OPS was actually below his 1.000 career OPS. Even in what wasn't his best season (and missing a few games), the best player in the world finished third in the league in home runs (17), RBI (46), and wRC+ (164), fourth in on-base percentage (.390), slugging (.603), and runs scored (41), and fifth in fWAR (2.6). He and guys like Rendon, Dylan Bundy, and David Fletcher did all they could to keep the Angels in the playoff hunt, but their extreme lack of depth cost them as they stumbled to a 26-34 record, three games out of a postseason spot.

Others: 2B DJ LeMahieu (NYY, 2.7 fWAR), 1B Jose Abreu (CWS, 2.7 fWAR), 3B Anthony Rendon (LAA, 2.8 fWAR), Kenta Maeda (MIN, 2.70 ERA), Gerrit Cole (NYY, 2.84 ERA)

NL MVP: 1B Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 13 HR, .341/.462/.640, 2 SB, 187 wRC+, 3.3 fWAR in 60 games.
To me, it's very very close between Freeman and Fernando Tatis, but Freeman just barely gets the edge because of his absolute dominance at the plate. The Braves' rotation was decimated by injuries and other problems in 2020, throwing their status as the NL's consensus second best team in doubt. But Freeman, combined with Marcell Ozuna and Ronald Acuña, made sure that runs were never really an issue and that they could win any slugfest. Freeman in particular was a one man wrecking crew, and if not for Juan Soto, his monster .341/.462/.640 slash line would have led the NL in each category. Not only that, but Freeman was one of just seven NL players to appear in all sixty games, and his 262 plate appearances put him third in the league. He hit in August (.330/.440/.582) and he hit in September (.375/.496/.750), not just bursting out with a couple weeks of excellence but maintaining it all season long. Aside from Soto and his 200 wRC+, no National League player has topped Freeman's 187 since Bryce Harper's 197 in 2015, and before that, not since Barry Bonds' 233 in 2004.

Runner-up: SS Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
Stat line: 17 HR, .277/.366/.571, 11 SB, 149 wRC+, 3.0 fWAR in 59 games.
I wanted to give this award to Tatis, I really did, and I would have strongly considered him ahead of Shane Bieber if he were in the AL. Even though he hit just .164/.242/.291 over his last 16 games, which is more than a quarter of the season, what he did in his first 43 games was unparalleled anywhere in either league. As of September 7th, before the slump started, he was hitting .314/.405/.663 with a league leading 15 home runs, but his value went beyond that. Tatis was one of the best defenders in baseball by multiple different measures, and with eleven stolen bases, he even finished fourth in the NL in that category. He energized the Padres' players, organization, and socially distant fanbase in a way that no other player did in 2020, and for that reason I believe his value goes well beyond the 3.0 fWAR he put up in 59 games. Take Tatis out of that lineup and I don't think the 37-23 Padres drop to 34-26, but to something more like 30-30. San Diego's biggest asset in 2020 was its energy, and Tatis was at the center. Had he played even average baseball over the last couple weeks of the season, I think he would have been the clear MVP.

Honorable mention: OF Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves
Stat line: 18 HR, .338/.431/.636, 0 SB, 179 wRC+, 2.5 fWAR in 60 games.
Here in the third spot, I wouldn't argue with Manny Machado, who carried the Padres through Tatis' slump on his way to a strong .304/.370/.580 season + his trademark defense, or Trea Turner, who had an unbelievable stretch in which he hit .471/.526/.816 over 21 games (over a third of the season!) and at one point collected fifteen hits in a four stretch. But Marcell Ozuna's continued offensive dominance over a "full," sixty game season could only be matched by his teammate Freddie Freeman, and his 18 home runs and 56 RBI finished atop the National League while his .431 on-base percentage and .636 slugging percentage weren't far behind. Looking at the Braves' final 35-25 record, you'd have no idea about their rotation problems or the fact that Ronald Acuña missed nearly a quarter of the season, and that's due to Freeman and Ozuna forming the best middle of the order in baseball by far. He kept Freeman from getting the Juan Soto/Barry Bonds treatment, and in total he produced as much offense as any non-Freeman player in baseball.

Others: RHP Trevor Bauer (CIN, 1.73 ERA), 3B Manny Machado (SD, 2.5 fWAR), SS Trea Turner (WSH, 2.7 fWAR), OF Mookie Betts (LAD, 2.9 fWAR), OF Juan Soto (WSH, 2.4 fWAR)

AL Cy Young: RHP Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
Stat line: 8-1, 1.63 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 122/21 K/BB in 77.1 IP.
This was the easiest award to hand out by far, didn't have to think twice. See Bieber's MVP writeup for more details.

Runner-up: RHP Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins
Stat line: 6-1, 2.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 80/10 K/BB in 66.2 IP.
This #2 slot is very close between Maeda and Gerrit Cole, but Maeda's incredible ability to not only limit runs but limit baserunners gives him the edge. His 0.75 WHIP led both leagues by a good margin ahead of second place Trevor Bauer (0.79) and third place Dinelson Lamet (0.86), and it's actually the second lowest ever in a season behind Pedro Martinez's 0.74 in 2000 (Bauer, interestingly, is fourth best all time). In his eleven starts, Maeda went at least five innings in all of them and never allowed more than three runs in a start, but more impressively, he never allowed more than six baserunners in any start. His best work came on August 18th against the Brewers when he allowed one run on just three baserunners over eight innings, striking out twelve. With a lack of superstar seasons ahead of him (aside from Bieber), it's enough to place second in the league despite a 2.70 ERA.

Honorable mention: RHP Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
Stat line: 7-3, 2.84 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 94/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
I'm a sucker for a large body of work, so the fact that Gerrit Cole finished fourth in the American League with 73 innings is a big plus for me. Obviously that's not all he had going for him, also racking up the third most strikeouts (94), fourth best WHIP (0.96), and sixth best ERA (2.84) despite pitching in a heavy hitters' park and pitching most of his road starts in hitters' parks as well in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Buffalo. Still, he spun some gems and finished the season with three consecutive seven inning starts in which he allowed one run or fewer, and he struck out at least seven in ten of his twelve starts. Yankees fans may have had sky high, Cy Young or bust expectations (I should know – I'm engaged to one) and a 2.84 ERA might feel like a let down, but given the fact that he made just two starts in pitcher friendly parks this year and that he still kept his WHIP under 1.00 and struck out nearly 100, I'd call this exactly what New York paid for.

Others: LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu (TOR, 2.69 ERA), LHP Dallas Keuchel (CWS, 1.99 ERA), RHP Lance Lynn (TEX, 3.32 ERA), RHP Zach Plesac (CLE, 2.28 ERA), LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA, 3.10 ERA).

NL Cy Young: RHP Trevor Bauer, Cincinnati Reds
Stat line: 5-4, 1.73 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 100/17 K/BB in 73 IP.
It's been an interesting few years for Trevor Bauer, who never posted an ERA below 4.18 from 2012-2017 but dropped all the way to 2.21 in 2018, only to rocket back up to 4.48 in 2019. Now in 2020, he's coming off a year that could very well win him a Cy Young Award, and it was a 1.24 ERA and a 39/4 strikeout to walk ratio over his final four starts that fully pushed him past Jacob deGrom. Bauer's entire season was exceptional, with four different starts of a dozen or more strikeouts, eight out of eleven starts allowing either zero or one earned run, and all eleven where he pitched into the sixth inning. He led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79) while finishing second in strikeouts (100) and sixth in innings pitched, all while pitching in a tough hitters' park in Cincinnati. This year, it was the Reds' offense that scuffled at times, not its pitching as had been the case in years past, and Bauer combined with Luis Castillo to form one of the best one-two punches in baseball. The short season obviously matters, but his 0.79 WHIP is technically the lowest in the history of the National League, and that counts for something.

Runner-up: RHP Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs
Stat line: 8-3, 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 93/14 K/BB in 76 IP.
I went back and forth between Yu Darvish and Dinelson Lamet for this spot, but Darvish gets the edge with seven more innings pitched, a slightly lower ERA, and similar dominance in terms of keeping runners off the bases. He was one of baseball's better pitchers from 2012-2016 with the Rangers before falling into more of an inconsistent, mid-rotation profile with the Dodgers and Cubs from 2017-2019. 2020 was the best we've ever seen from the Japanese hurler, in which he had the second best ERA in the National League. After allowing three runs over four innings in an unremarkable first start of the season, he allowed zero or one earned run in eight of his final eleven starts and went at least six innings in each of them. That consistency was key for a Cubs team that won the NL Central for the first time since 2017, and by eating 76 innings, he was third in the league. He did it by the strikeout, his 93 finishing fourth in the league, but he also did it with excellent command, his 1.66 walks per nine finishing second only to his teammate Kyle Hendricks.

Honorable mention: RHP Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres
Stat line: 3-1, 2.09 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 93/20 K/BB in 69 IP.
A three win pitcher as a top three Cy Young candidate? 2020 really is a different animal. After flashing strikeout stuff over his first two seasons sandwiched around Tommy John surgery, Dinelson Lamet put it all together in 2020 for baseball's most exciting team. In twelve starts, he put up a 2.09 ERA, struck out 93, and allowed just 39 hits in 69 innings. Aside from a precautionary early exit in his final start of the season, Lamet went at least five innings in all of his starts and never allowed more than six hits or three earned runs in any. He finished second in the NL in WHIP (0.86), third in ERA (2.09), and fourth in strikeouts (93). His .250 xwOBA (expected opponents' offense, essentially) was third in the NL behind only Bauer and Jacob deGrom, showing that his exceptional season was earned, too. If you've never seen a Lamet slider, you need to watch one of his starts.

Others: RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM, 2.38 ERA), RHP Kyle Hendricks (CHC, 2.88 ERA), LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD, 2.16 ERA), RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL, 2.11 ERA), RHP German Marquez (COL, 3.75 ERA)

Unpacking the San Diego Padres Trade Deadline

Acquired: RHP Mike Clevinger, RHP Trevor Rosenthal, RHP Taylor Williams, RHP Austin Adams, RHP Dan Altavilla, 1B Mitch Moreland, C Austin Nola, C Jason Castro, OF Greg Allen, and a PTBNL

Traded: 3B Ty France, OF Josh Naylor, OF Edward Olivares, C Austin Hedges, C Luis Torrens, RHP Cal Quantrill, RHP Andres Muñoz, RHP Gerardo Reyes, minor leaguers OF Taylor Trammell, OF Jeisson Rosario, SS Gabriel Arias, SS Owen Miller, 3B Hudson Potts, LHP Joey Cantillo, and two PTBNL's* (one PTBNL reported to be minor league RHP Matt Brash)

First off, wow. The Padres picked up an impact starting pitcher, four relievers, two catchers, a power bat, an extra outfielder, and a bonus PTBNL, only one of whom is a rental. And all it cost them was a set of 16 players, half of whom have major league experience. My two immediate takeaways: the Padres overpaid on a lot of these deals, but I commend them for doing so. In baseball, if you're not moving forward, you're going backwards, and they need to move forward if they want to catch the Dodgers and compete with the heavy hitters of the National League for years to come. In that sense, overpaying to get the job done was better than doing nothing at all. Even though 26 (!) players changed hands here, they still hung onto big name young arms like MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, Ryan Weathers, and Cole Wilcox and young bats like Luis Campusano, CJ Abrams, Robert Hassell, and Hudson Head. I'd call that a win.

Obviously, I'm much more excited to talk about the prospects than the big leaguers, but let's run through the new Padres real quick.

New Bats

The most apparent upgrade here is swapping out Austin Hedges and Luis Torrens for Austin Nola and Jason Castro. Hedges and Torrens were hitting a combined .176/.266/.338 with three home runs in 36 games, while the new Nola/Castro combination comes in slashing .267/.355/.480 with seven home runs in 47 games. That's huge. While swapping out Hedges' steady glove for Nola's might sting a little bit, Nola has also played every other position but pitcher, shortstop, and center field over the last two seasons, giving San Diego a ton of flexibility to move him around the field and potentially give Castro more at bats. Mitch Moreland won't force Eric Hosmer off of first base, but he and his .328/.430/.746 bat will be a huge upgrade over the injured Tommy Pham (.207/.316/.293), Josh Naylor (.278/.316/.417), and Abraham Almonte (.111/.200/.111), who the Padres have been using in that spot. I think this transforms a top-heavy offense led primarily by Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Wil Myers, and Jake Cronenworth into a much more formidable, more balanced group that can try to keep up with the Dodgers. Lastly, Greg Allen is just a career .239/.295/.344 hitter, but his 94th percentile sprint speed makes him the fastest player on the team and, as a bonus, he grew up in San Diego, attending Hilltop High School in Chula Vista as well as San Diego State University.

New Arms

Clearly, Mike Clevinger is the headliner. Since the start of the 2017 season, he's 39-19 with a 2.97 ERA and a 534/175 strikeout to walk ratio across 470.1 innings – those are ace-caliber numbers. Additionally, the 29 year old is under contract through 2022 and should be affordable at that. Throw him in with Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Luis Patiño, and MacKenzie Gore, and the Padres have a legitimate rotation from top to bottom going forward (plus Zach Davies for 2021). Now, the bullpen. The fearsome trio of Kirby Yates, Emilio Pagan, and Craig Stammen combined for a 2.37 ERA over 212.2 innings in 2019, but that's jumped all the way to a 7.56 ERA in 33.1 innings this year. So, the Padres brought in four new relievers to counter that, especially given that Yates likely won't pitch the rest of the regular season. None of the four are necessarily stars, but Trevor Rosenthal, Dan Altavilla, Austin Adams, and Taylor Williams bring in some depth to help get them over the hump while those guys get back on track. Plus aside from Rosenthal, the other three are all under team control through 2023.

The Indians Haul

In trading Mike Clevinger, the Indians picked up easily the most capital from the Padres. Starting with the big leaguers, Cal Quantrill (age 25) has proven serviceable as both a starter and a reliever, and he'll have a chance to take over Clevinger's spot in the Cleveland rotation. The Ontario native fits the Indians mold as a polished strike thrower who can pitch well off his changeup, though the rest of his arsenal is pretty ordinary and he can be hittable when he misses in the zone. Moving forward, he'll probably be a back-end starter for Cleveland, though the Indians always have a host of starting pitchers coming up through their system which could force him out. He holds a 4.79 ERA and a 107/34 K/BB in 120.1 innings for his career. Josh Naylor (age 23) will join his younger brother Bo, who spent 2019 at Class A Lake County. Naylor is a bit younger and comes with more upside than Quantrill, and as a career .253/.315/.405 hitter with nine home runs in 112 games, he already has a little bit of track record under his belt at 23 years old. He controls the strike zone well with a solid 21% career strikeout rate, though while he shows some thump in his bat, it may not be enough to start full time with his first base/corner outfield profile. As a left handed hitter who has also shown the ability to hit same-sided pitching, he increases his base value as a bench bat and could fill in left, right, first base, or DH. At peak, we could see 20-25 home runs a year, but I think he'll be more in the teens. Then there's Austin Hedges (age 28), who is just a career .199/.257/.359 hitter, but it's not like Roberto Perez (.214/.304/.368) or Sandy Leon (.217/.284/.328) are much better. Now, the Indians have three top defensive catchers who can't hit, but while Leon is a free agent after the season, Hedges and Perez are both under contract through 2022. Those two should bridge the time until Bo Naylor works his way up.

Now onto the minor leaguers, which I prefer to talk about anyways. I'm extremely excited to see Joey Cantillo (age 20) in the Indians system, where he could really take off. He dominated A ball to the tune of a 2.26 ERA and a 144/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 111.2 innings in 2019, showing improved stuff across the board as he filled out his 6'4" frame. The stuff is decent, with a fastball around 90, a good changeup, and a huge downer curveball with tremendous depth but not a ton of velocity, but everything plays up because he gets great deception in his delivery and locates his pitches extremely well. That's exactly the kind of pitcher the Indians tend to do really well with, and I could really see him coming out a legitimate impact pitcher. Keep an eye on this one. Moving on, Owen Miller (age 23) is a sleeper type who has slashed .307/.367/.441 with 17 home runs over 205 games so far in his minor league career. He has exceptional natural feel to hit that helped him race from Illinois State to AA in less than a year, and while he doesn't hit for a ton of power, his ability to find the barrel consistently makes that moderate power up significantly. With Francisco Lindor looking like he'll be leaving Cleveland and no long term solution at second base, the middle infield is wide open and I could see Miller becoming a full time starter either at second base or shortstop in the near future. Coming up behind him is Gabriel Arias (age 20), who broke out with a .302/.339/.470 line and 17 home runs in High A in 2019. He has always been talented and the big breakout just confirms what evaluators already knew. Arias is an explosive hitter from the right side that put up those gaudy numbers against much older competition, but at this point, he's also very aggressive and will need to tone down his approach as he matures. Given his age, that's not overly concerning. What he did as a teenager in High A was impressive enough, and he's a great defender that could become Cleveland's shortstop of the future if he continues to progress. The youth and the glove give his plate discipline plenty of slack to catch up.

New Mariners

The most established player heading to the other end of I-5 is Ty France (age 26), a San Diego State product who was off to a hot .309/.377/.491 start over 20 games in 2020. He's not a huge guy at 5'11", but he has great feel for the barrel that enables him to make consistent hard contact and tap some power when he gets into one. Even though he's just 89 games into his MLB career, he's already appeared at first base, second base, third base, and even pitcher, bringing plenty of versatility to fill in in multiple roles or even sneak into a starting spot if Evan White, Shed Long, or Kyle Seager gets hurt. There's not much coming up through the system that would seem to threaten his playing time, either, and he's under team control for a long time. Definitely a nice depth add. Luis Torrens (age 24) hasn't made a ton of noise just yet, slashing .176/.256/.223 over 70 career games, but with Austin Nola leaving town, he'll have plenty of opportunity to try. Torrens has a classic backup catcher profile, with very strong plate discipline helping him tap some moderate power from the right side. At 24 years old, I'm not sure how much more he'll grow into, but he's been steadily hitting for more impact in the minors and he has a chance to hit for just enough in the majors to justify regular playing time, especially with his solid glove. He'll likely help bridge the gap until Cal Raleigh is ready. Andres Muñoz (age 21) is a really interesting one. The 6'2", 240 pound righty has a triple digit fastball that has touched as high as 104, and while his command is far from pinpoint, he's not wild either and is generally around the zone. He drops in a good, vertical slider, and the two pitches enabled him to post a 3.91 ERA and a 30/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings in 2019 at just 20 years old, though he's sitting out 2020 with Tommy John surgery. Once he comes back, Muñoz just needs to sharpen his command a little bit to become a legitimate late inning arm. Given his age, that's certainly possible, making him a really interesting one to watch in the Mariners' bullpen. Lastly, the one true prospect in this deal was Taylor Trammell (age 22), the well-known prospect who was previously involved in the Trevor Bauer/Yasiel Puig deal of 2019. His stock faded a bit with a so-so 2019 season in AA (.234/.340/.349, 10 HR), but there's still a lot to like in this buy-low prospect. He has really nice raw power that he taps naturally, and a patient approach has enabled him to handle advanced pitching throughout his career. Throw in above average speed, and he can really impact the game in a lot of ways. The 2019 season showed that he still has work to do in proving he can generate impact against top level pitching, though he was just 21 at the time. The Mariners are betting that additional development time will prove that to just be a blip on the radar, and that his work ethic, athleticism, and patient approach will come together for an all-around contributor at the major league level. Either way, we should see him in Seattle by 2021 at the latest.

Two New Red Sox Bats

In return for power bat Mitch Moreland, the Red Sox are bringing on two new minor league bats in Hudson Potts (age 21) and Jeisson Rosario (age 20). Potts is a power bat that crushed 56 home runs, 86 doubles, and six triples in 364 minor league games from 2017-2019. The Padres loved his power and pushed him aggressively, sending him to full season ball at 18 years old in 2017 and to High A and even AA as a 19 year old in 2018. He spent his age-20 season at AA again in 2019 and slashed .227/.290/.406 with 16 home runs in 107 games, a mixed bag of numbers given his age. The Red Sox look at how young he has been relative to his competition and think his plate discipline with a bit of acclimation, and while his power isn't quite of the standard of Bobby Dalbec or Triston Casas, he's a better defender at third base who could stick there. However, with the presence of Rafael Devers in addition to Dalbec and Casas, he'll really have to earn that playing time. Rosario, meanwhile, hit just .242/.372/.314 over 120 games at High A last year, but he was also just 19 years old. The first thing that jumps off the page with Rosario is his patience, walking in 16.6% of his plate appearances last year despite his youth. He consistently works counts to hunt his pitch, though to this point, he hasn't hit for much impact with just 57 extra base hits over 289 games for his career. His approach is very contact-oriented, but he's very athletic and packs some lean strength into his 6'1" frame, so the Red Sox could tinker with his approach to tap some more power. At just 20 years old, he has plenty of time to experiment with different approaches to hitting, and his advanced plate discipline helps in that regard as well. He's a strong defender that should stick in center field, which also buys his bat more slack, so he's a high probability big leaguer in some capacity. If he can learn to generate more impact at the plate, he has a chance to start as a guy with 10-15 home runs a year and strong on-base percentages, though without significant gains in his power output, he's probably more of a fourth outfielder.

The Rest

I'll start with Edward Olivares (age 24) here. He's a huge get for the Royals after signing Trevor Rosenthal to a minor league contract, bringing a multitude of ways to impact the game. He hit .283/.349/.453 with 18 home runs and 35 stolen bases across 127 games in AA last year, and he's gotten his feet wet a bit in 13 games with the Padres (albeit at .176/.222/.294). There's no one carrying tool to Olivares' game, but he brings loose, easy power from a rangy 6'2" frame in addition to good feel for the barrel and nice speed as well. His aggressive approach will limit his on-base percentages in the majors, though his game fits well in that big Kansas City outfield and he has a chance to get lots of playing time pretty quickly. His ability to handle center field could bump Whit Merrifield to second base and Nicky Lopez down to the bench, and he also provides a controllable option to gradually take over for Alex Gordon slowly approaches retirement. Though he's not quite as fast, he should hit for more impact than Nick Heath, and with guys like Khalil Lee, Kyle Isbel, and Brewer Hicklen also working their way up, the future of the Royals outfield looks to be in a much more solid place. I don't necessarily see Olivares turning into a star, but he could be a 10-15 home run bat whose speed and defense helps him hold down regular playing time. Moving back to the West Coast, the Angels are picking up a power bullpen arm in Gerardo Reyes (age 27) in exchange for Jason Castro. Already 27, he's yet to do much at the major league level with a 7.62 ERA and a 38/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings last year, but the stuff is there for him to succeed. His fastball sits in the upper 90's and it isn't straight, either, with his lower arm angle putting great running and sinking action on it. He throws a short, tight slider that sneaks below bats and induces plenty of whiffs. He does a good job of filling up the strike zone but he struggles to hit individual spots, and going forward his success will likely hinge on that command. If he can tunnel his fastball and slider off each other, he has serious late inning potential. The Angels will try to get him there, but at 27 years old, he's not the youngest kid out there. And lastly, Matt Brash (age 22) isn't officially a Mariner just yet, but he's reported to be the player to be named later in the Taylor Williams deal. He was the Padres' fourth round pick out of Niagara University in 2019, then struck out eight over 5.1 innings (one earned run) in his pro debut that year. He looks like a reliever to the naked eye, showing a low 90's fastball that can creep up to 95 to go with a good changeup and a pair of decent breaking balls, all coming from a jerky delivery. However, Brash's pitch metrics are supposedly very good, and he has consistently performed at a high level everywhere he's gone. Additionally, he was showing a smoother delivery in 2020 in spring training, and he looks much more like a starting pitcher at this point. Brash probably profiles as a back-end starter, depending on the development of his offspeed stuff.