We're entering a new era of Nationals baseball, with the newest generation of fans perhaps not used to picking so early in the draft. From 2012-2020, they never picked higher than sixteenth (Lucas Giolito, 2012), then in 2021 moved up to eleventh. In 2022, they'll be picking in a range more familiar to older fans, with their first top five pick since they made Bryce Harper their second of back to back first overall picks in 2010. Harper was part of an extremely successful run from 2009-2012 that also saw them take Stephen Strasburg (1st overall, 2009), Drew Storen (10th, 2009), Anthony Rendon (6th, 2011), and Giolito (16th, 2012) with first round picks. Since then, the 2010's were a bit of rough sledding with Erick Fedde (18th, 2014) and Carter Kieboom (28th, 2016) being the only two first rounders to make any kind of impact on the big league club, and Nationals first rounders since 2013 have actually combined for -0.4 fWAR in that timeframe.
With the lack of recent success from early picks, coupled with the constant trading of prospects during the Nationals' many playoff runs and several high profile international signings floundering, the farm system has fallen precipitously and was actually ranked dead last by Baseball America prior to the 2021 season. The deadline selloff that year, as well as a breakout from Cade Cavalli and high profile additions in Brady House and Christian Vaquero, helped bump Washington up to 26th out of 30 in the 2022 version of that list, but there is still a ways to go. It's clear that the system's traditional player development strategy has fallen behind other, more progressive systems, and for that reason Mike Rizzo is shaking things up going forward. For that reason, it's very hard to peg what direction the Nationals will go in 2022, and it might be easier to simply list out the best prospects in the draft, all of whom figure to have a chance to wear the Curly W. Before we dive in, let's take a quick look back at the Nationals five most recent first round picks:
2021: SS Brady House, Winder-Barrow HS, GA (11th overall)
2020: RHP Cade Cavalli, Oklahoma (22nd overall)
2019: RHP Jackson Rutledge, San Jacinto CC (17th overall)
2018: RHP Mason Denaburg, Merritt Island HS, FL (27th overall)
2017: LHP Seth Romero, Houston (25th overall)
Brady House broke a streak of four consecutive pitchers taken in the first round and a streak of six consecutive first rounds selecting a pitcher. He's the first hitter the Nationals had taken to begin a draft since Kieboom in 2016, when they also selected college righty Dane Dunning one pick later. The one demographic the Nationals have really avoided with that first pick is a college bat, with Rendon in 2011 being the most recent, but there will be a bevy of options available this year that could cause that to change. Given the already-shallow college pitching class that has been further battered by injuries, as well as teams' usual reluctance to gamble on high school pitching at the very top of the draft, the available options are likely pointing to Washington taking a hitter with the fifth overall pick. There are three absolute studs at the very top of the prep bat class if they want to double up after taking House last year, while the college bats provide the deepest group of high-end talent of any demographic in the class. Let's explore some options, with their ranking on my current board in parentheses.
2B Termarr Johnson, Mays HS [GA] (#1)
If the draft were today, it would be highly unlikely for Termarr Johnson to make it past the first couple of picks, but high schoolers can be unpredictable with their bonus demands and we have a long spring ahead of us. So if other bats overtake him or if he starts asking for an astronomical number, Johnson could be available at pick #5. There are no two ways about it – TerJohn is a special, special hitter. Despite being nearly a year younger than much of his competition that consists of an oddly old group of top high school prospects, he has stood out with the best combination of polish and power we have seen in a long time. He takes extremely professional at bats, rarely chasing pitches he doesn't like even with an eye for the strike zone well beyond his years. When he does get his pitch, he can find the barrel with his eyes closed if he wants to with exceptional plate coverage and hand eye coordination. That level of confidence in the box allows him to rip off ferocious hacks from the left side without sacrificing his hit tool, giving him plus power despite a stocky 5'9" frame that might not look the part. For those familiar with last year's class, you can imagine Kahlil Watson's build, power, and swing (perhaps toned down just a hair) combined with more than a full grade better hit tool. On the defensive side, the Atlanta native shows a smooth and quick glove that profiles well at second base, though he probably lacks the explosive physical tools for shortstop in the long run. One of the Orioles, Diamondbacks, Rangers, or Pirates will probably pick him up before the Nationals come around at pick #5 if he keeps hitting like he does, but if he slips through, it would be hard for Washington to pass him over. He surprisingly remains uncommitted, so it remains to be seen how his bonus demands shape up and affect his market.
OF Druw Jones, Wesleyan HS [GA] (#2)
Termarr Johnson goes to school just west of downtown Atlanta, but up in the northeastern suburbs less than 25 miles away, we have another talent with equal if not greater upside in Druw Jones. The son of longtime Braves great and deserving future Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, Druw fits right at the top of the class as well and could also be gone before Washington selects. He is a supreme athlete that has steadily added more and more polish to his game, putting him fully in contention for the top overall spot on my board. He has an ideal frame at 6'4" with long arms and legs and plenty of room to add strength, something teams absolutely love to see early in the draft. A right handed hitter, he has plus raw power and loves to turn on pitches, driving them impressive distances with great strength and leverage in his swing. Despite a pull-centric approach, he shows great plate coverage with those long arms and strong barrel accuracy giving him the ability to pull pitches on the outer half of the plate with authority as well. He does show the ability to go the other way with authority already, but for now, that's usually not his approach. To top it off, Jones has strong plate discipline and pitch recognition and does not chase often. As a whole, the package at the plate makes him a tremendous ball of clay for the Nationals' pro development staff to get their hands on, and once you combine the strength, athleticism, and plate discipline befitting of the sone of a major leaguer with some tweaks to his overall approach and swing path, you have MVP upside. Not just a hitter, Jones shines on defense as well, with plus-plus speed helping him track down virtually anything hit in his direction in center field. As you'd expect given his father's defensive prowess, he's also polished out there beyond what you'd expect from most high schoolers. Throw in a strong arm and he has a chance to win Gold Gloves in center field. Jones is committed to Vanderbilt and will be an expensive sign, which could enable him to drop to the Nationals at pick #5.
OF Elijah Green, IMG Academy [FL] (#5)
Rounding out the Big Three prep bats is Elijah Green, perhaps the most physically gifted high schooler we've seen in a long time. While Termarr Johnson is only 5'9" and Druw Jones still has plenty of room to grow into his 6'4" frame, Elijah Green has already filled out his 6'3" frame with 225 pounds of fast-twitch muscle. The son of former NFL tight end Eric Green, Elijah brings that kind of football athleticism to the baseball field and it manifests most prominently in some of the best raw power in the class, easily plus if not plus-plus. He takes big hacks from the right side to get the most out of that power, dropping some absolute bombs that leave scouts adding exclamation marks to their reports. In addition to his jaw dropping power, he's also a plus-plus runner that can make things happen on the bases, giving him true 30-30 upside in the majors. While he certainly has a healthy uppercut in the box, Green stays balanced up there and for years has shown the ability to tap his power in games, making him one of the most famous names in the 2022 prep class for a while now. He's especially potent down in the zone, where he can really go down and lift the ball, but lately pitchers have found holes in his swing with fastballs up in the zone as well as with well-placed breaking balls that dive out of the zone away from him. How the Orlando-area native adjusts this spring will dictate whether he remains in play at the top of the draft or slips a little bit, and scouts will have plenty of opportunity to evaluate him playing on the most talented high school program in the nation, the IMG Academy boarding school outside of Tampa. Defensively, his speed will help him stick in center field, while his plus arm will make him a true weapon and can help him compete for Gold Gloves if he can get a little more polished out there with his reads and routes. He's committed to Miami, but if he shows well enough this spring to be in play when the Nationals pick at #5 overall, that shouldn't be an issue.
RHP Dylan Lesko, Buford HS [GA] (#10)
The Atlanta area is consistently one of the top talent producing metros in the country, but 2022 is on another level. Already boasting Termarr Johnson and Druw Jones, who in my opinion are the two best prospects in this entire class for now, the ATL also gives us the near-consensus top pitching prospect in the prep class (and perhaps the entire draft) in Dylan Lesko, just twenty miles northeast of Jones' Wesleyan School and forty miles northeast of Johnson's Mays High School (yeah, the ATL is absolutely massive). It's crowded near the top of the prep pitching class, but Lesko has done just enough to provide some daylight between himself and the next tier. His fastball sits in the mid 90's and can get into the upper 90's, with good extension down the mound helping give that fastball a little extra hop. Lesko's bread and butter plus changeup with excellent diving action that can even be effective if he misses up in the zone, while he also adds two breaking balls. He throws his curveball more often than his slider, and while it's still a work in progress with inconsistent shape, he gets high spin rates on it that give it plenty of upside if the Nationals' staff gets their hands on it. The 6'2" righty has a sturdy frame and a clean delivery that helps him fill up the strike zone, generally doing a very good job of spotting his pitches to both sides of the plate. It's not so much of a "wow, I've never seen that before" profile as it is one that checks all of the boxes you look for in a premium prep pitching prospect, and if he stays healthy and continues pounding the strike zone with big league stuff like he has throughout his high school career, he could very well be in play at pick #5. Another factor that could push him up the board to Washington is the poor college pitching class, so if the Nationals want a true impact arm, he may be the best and possibly only option. As with Druw Jones, they'll also have to contend with an expensive Vanderbilt commitment.
SS Brooks Lee, Cal Poly (#3)
2020-2021: 10 HR, .342/.384/.626, 3 SB, 34/18 K/BB in 55 games.
If the Nationals are going to take the first college hitter in the first round since 2011, there are tons of options but Cal Poly shortstop Brooks Lee might be the best at this point. A top two rounds talent out of San Luis Obispo High School in 2019, he instead headed to school to play for his dad and a massive sophomore season vaulted him to the top of the class. He immediately stands out for his pure feel for the barrel, which is arguably the best in the entire college class. Lee is an aggressive hitter that frequently expands his zone, but his barrel accuracy is so elite that he still rarely swings and misses and can do plenty of damage outside of the strike zone. When he connects, he shows above average raw power that he consistently taps in games, with the chance to grow into true plus power from his strong 6'1" frame once he incorporates a little more loft into his swing. On the defensive side, he's a heady defender that can make all the routine plays at shortstop but may be forced to move to third base as he fills out his frame and slows down a tick. He seems like exactly the kind of player the Orioles would love to get their hands on with the first overall pick, especially if he's willing to sign below slot value, but given the glut of position player talent at the top of this draft there's a very good chance he's available at pick #5. If he can tighten his strike zone a little bit in 2022 while continuing to tap his power, he could make sense for Washington as a potential prime Daniel Murphy-type hitter, bringing the added benefit of being a switch hitter and providing better defense.
OF Chase DeLauter, James Madison (#4)
2020-2021: 7 HR, .385/.488/.657, 14 SB, 24/34 K/BB in 42 games.
The Nationals also have a hometown option if they want to go that route, which I think would be really cool. Chase DeLauter grew up just over the Blue Ridge from the DC area in Martinsburg, West Virginia, just over sixty miles northwest of the White House. He's absolutely torn the cover off the ball at JMU, ripping .385/.488/.657 over 42 games to make scouts take notice, but it was his performance on the Cape (.298/.397/.589) against elite competition that really vaulted him up boards similar to New Mexico State's Nick Gonzales a few years ago, though they're very different players. DeLauter is listed at an intimidating 6'4", 235 pounds, and he looks it in the box. He has a very loose, effortless uppercut in the box that reminds me somewhat of James Wood from last year's draft, producing easy loft and playing well to his body type. It's not the most traditional swing path and his pure bat to ball skills are probably closer to average than plus, but he's an extraordinarily disciplined hitter that works counts with precision until he gets his pitch to hit. Despite facing a weaker schedule at JMU, that plate discipline held up extremely well on the Cape where he saw a big step up in competition, continuing to walk more (21) than he struck out (18) in 34 games. This is a true power hitter who is completely unfazed by premium stuff and whose small school should not be held against him. He's also a good runner that may be able to make it work in center field for a little while, though as he slows down he'll probably move to right field where his strong arm will play. To top it off, DeLauter is extremely young for the class and won't turn 21 until October, much like Jud Fabian a year ago. He'll be tested right away with a series against Florida State during the opening weekend, where he'll face two of the best lefties in the country in Parker Messick and Bryce Hubbart. How he fares against those two and the tough FSU staff as a whole will be closely watched, and if he performs like he's capable in that series and throughout the season against JMU's Colonial schedule, he'll very much be in play at pick #5.
OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech (#6)
2020-2021: 11 HR, .345/.415/.621, 9 SB, 48/17 K/BB in 51 games.
The Nationals have had a bit of UVA flavor lately between Ryan Zimmerman, Sean Doolittle, and briefly Mark Reynolds, but in 2022 they have an opportunity to flip across the rivalry and bring in a Hokie. Gavin Cross grew up in Bristol, Tennessee, just minutes over the border with Virginia, which makes him a quasi-hometown pick as well. He's actually a bit of a cross between Brooks Lee and Chase DeLauter in that he combines Lee's aggressiveness and pitch recognition with DeLauter's power and size, making his at bats somewhat of a laser show. He crushes baseballs with massive exit velocities on a scarily consistent basis, regularly driving them out to all fields for true plus power that plays in games. While he is aggressive, his pitch recognition and bat to ball skills are very strong and he makes a lot of hard contact outside the zone. While you might think that better pitching would exploit this, he has performed in the ACC and he hit a scorching .455/.474/.879 over eleven games with the Collegiate National Team, where he faced some of the best arms in the country. He's not quite as quick as DeLauter and probably won't sniff center field in pro ball, he'll be just fine in right with a cannon arm. I've mentioned this every time I've written about him, but the whole package really reminds me of Juan Soto minus his generational plate discipline (which of course is a big part of what makes Juan Soto Juan Soto). Cross has the size, frame, and swing of his Nationals counterpart, and his strong pitch recognition harkens to Soto as well. If he can tighten up the strike zone a little bit and show more of a patient approach at the plate in 2022, he should be in play for Washington at #5.
2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech (#7)
2020-2021: 25 HR, .322/.457/.678, 5 SB, 60/67 K/BB in 75 games.
In 2018, Texas Tech third baseman Josh Jung went eighth overall to the in-state Rangers, and in 2022, the Nationals could help his younger brother beat that position. It's hard to know what direction Mike Rizzo will go given how he will be changing the strategy this year, but out of everyone on this list, Jung probably feels the most like a National. He probably has the most balanced profile of any college hitter this year, and like I've mentioned before it's a very deep class in that regard so that's no small honor. He's extremely patient in the box and recognizes pitches well, enabling him to consistently do damage against strong competition. There is at least above average power in his 6' frame, which he taps extremely consistently in games because he's always finding the barrel. Some quibble with the San Antonio native's unique load, in which he cocks his bat back towards the backstop, but I like it because it puts him in a good position to hit and brings with it very little wasted movement. The overall product is a hitter that can produce 20-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages and hit near the top of a lineup, and there's a pretty high floor as well. Jung isn't a strong defender, with just enough glove for second base or just enough arm for third base depending on which you want to stretch, but you're buying the bat here. There's not much he can do to build off his tremendous 2021 season, but if he can just repeat it, he'll be in play at pick #5.
RHP Landon Sims, Mississippi State (#13)
2020-2021: 6-0, 1.82 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 123/22 K/BB in 69.1 innings.
It's a very shallow college pitching class that was initially led by a trio of SEC righthanders in Arkansas' Peyton Pallette, Tennessee's Blade Tidwell, and Mississippi State's Landon Sims. However, a shallow pitching class got shallower when Pallette went down with Tommy John surgery and Tidwell was shut down with shoulder soreness, leaving Sims as the clear leader despite having never started a game at the college level. Instead, he's served as the Bulldogs' closer where anyone who watches college baseball at all has likely seen him. He'll transition to the rotation this spring after the departures of Will Bednar and Christian MacLeod, where he has a chance to really push himself up boards in a big way. It's the most explosive stuff in amateur baseball, bar none, that makes the Atlanta-area native special. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 97, but its movement is perhaps even more impressive than its velocity with tremendous carry that makes it nearly impossible to square up. His slider is just as good, a devastating breaker with nasty late bite, and the two pitches helped him strike out 46.9% (!) of the hitters he faced this past season despite going up against a strong SEC and NCAA Tournament schedule. For the most part, he's relied on those two pitches to get out, but he's been working on his changeup in preparation for his rotation move and the pitch is already looking very promising. Sims is a fire breathing competitor and an absolute bulldog when he comes in to close out games, but if the Nationals are going to draft him fifth overall, they're going to do so with conviction that he will be a starter. He commands the ball much better than you'd expect with his kind of stuff, which will bode well for that transition to the rotation this spring, and if his stuff is anywhere close to being as explosive as it is out of the bullpen, the sturdy 6'2" righty could pull it off. Watch to see how he holds up the second and third time through the order this year to see whether he's worth a shot at #5.
SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt (#16)
2020-2021: 16 HR, .268/.347/.522, 10 SB, 101/35 K/BB in 79 games.
If he wants to go fifth overall, Carter Young has more work to do than anybody else on this list, including Landon Sims and his transition to the rotation. Young was trending towards this part of the draft after hitting .328 in his shortened freshman season (albeit without much power in a small sample size) and coming out of the gate hot again in 2021, but a shoulder injury in May scuttled his momentum and he was still dealing with lingering effects after he returned in June. That second half slump in 2021 hurt his outlook, but he's fully healthy heading into 2022 and will look to build his stock back up. Young is a switch hitter that taps plus raw power in games with a big, healthy hack, with a mature all-fields approach that helps him handle high end stuff. However, that big swing also leads to some swing and miss, an issue that snowballed after his injury when he wasn't able to cut loose as effectively. In 2022, he'll have to not only get back to his pre-injury self, but cut down further on the swing and miss to prove he belongs at the very top of the class. Working in his favor is his defense, with both the range and the arm strength to profile as a plus defender at shortstop. Not many shortstops boast the kind of bat he shows at his best, and the Nationals would love it if he could put it all together this spring and cut his strikeout rate to a tolerable level. If he does, it will be one of the better all-around profiles in the class.
Other Dark Horse Candidates
LHP Brandon Barriera, American Heritage HS, FL (#15)
2B Robert Moore, Arkansas (#17)
LHP Jackson Ferris, IMG Academy, FL (#20)
3B Cam Collier, Chipola JC (#22)
OF Justin Crawford, Bishop Gorman HS, NV (#38)
