Showing posts with label Thatcher Hurd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thatcher Hurd. Show all posts

Sunday, July 28, 2024

2024 MLB Draft Review: New York Yankees

Full list of draftees

There was no secret to the Yankees' strategy this year: college pitching, college pitching, and more college pitching. Each of the team's first seven picks were college arms from either the SEC or the ACC, though they certainly mixed up profiles within that demographic. Greysen Carter and his 103 MPH fastball with zero command represent one extreme, while Gage Ziehl and his pitchability/makeup over stuff profile represent the other (though I don't want to sell him short – he did hit 97). Many pitchers of course fell in between, with New York looking for strong combinations of stuff and physicality, hoping to bring in the next generation of starting pitchers.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-26: RHP Ben Hess, Alabama {video}
Slot value: $3.33 million. Signing bonus: $2.75 million ($585,400 below slot value).
My rank: #44. MLB Pipeline: #44. Baseball America: #38.
This was a bit of a surprising pick to start things off for New York, but Ben Hess brings considerable upside for a college arm and saved the team over half a million dollars against their bonus pool. After showing well as a freshman at Alabama in 2022, he impressed scouts with a red hot start to 2023 but got shut down with a flexor strain after seven starts. Fully healthy in 2024, he had an up and down season but showed enough ups to still sneak into the back of the first round. Hess is a mountain of a man at 6'5", 255 pounds, and he looks it. The arm talent is undeniable, beginning with a fastball that sits in the mid 90's and has reached as high as 99 with impressive riding action. His plus curveball misses a ton of bats with power two-plane break, while his slider gives him another above average breaking ball. He has shown feel for a solid changeup at times, flashing above average, though he hasn't found it consistently in games. Everything plays up further because Hess creates great extension with his big frame and gets a lower release than you'd expect for his size, making for as complete of a profile as you're going to find, metric-wise. Of course, there's more to pitching than just stuff and size, and that's where the questions come in. The Downstate Illinois native has battled injuries throughout his career, with 2024 being his first fully healthy season in a long time. Meanwhile, and I would wager this is highly correlated, his command has fluctuated. He has shown average, even above average command at times, but he was much too inconsistent in that regard in 2024 and pessimists may put a fringe-average grade there. Personally, although he was technically healthy in 2024, I think he needs to string together a little more consistent time on the mound to really settle back into that groove after never throwing more than 36.1 innings in a season before. He'll certainly need to watch his conditioning going forward to withstand a pro workload, and if he proves durable, he moves well enough on the mound to get back to average, if not above average command in the long run. Combine that with his wicked stuff, and he could be, dare I say, an ace at the big league level. A lot does need to go right to get there, though.

2-53: RHP Bryce Cunningham, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $1.72 million. Signing bonus: $2.3 million ($576,300 above slot value).
My rank: #46. MLB Pipeline: #63. Baseball America: #39.
After grabbing Ben Hess for an under slot deal at #26 worth roughly the value of the #33 pick, they went almost exactly as high above slot value to grab Bryce Cunningham in the second round at #53, where his $2.3 million bonus was worth roughly the value of the #41 pick. Cunningham is a bit of a polarizing prospect, but an interesting one with upside for sure. After working as a swingman in 2022 and 2023, he moved to the rotation full time in 2024 to inconsistent results, producing some downright dominant outings while faltering in others. With Cunningham, it all starts with the fastball. He sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's and has reached back for as much as 99 in short stints while topping out closer to 97 in longer outings. Thrown with pretty good extension and a pretty low release point compared to his 6'5" frame, the pitch's above average riding action helps the fastball play up to plus, though its results were more good than great against top SEC hitters. He relies heavily on an excellent changeup with tremendous running action, a pitch with true plus potential as well. His slider is a bit behind, coming in with short, tight break that can tie hitters up with its mid 80's velocity but which overall projects as just a fringy to average pitch. It's a pretty compact, repeatable delivery from a big, durable frame, though his control is ahead of his command and like quite a few top Vanderbilt pitchers before him, he can get hit a little bit in the zone if he falls behind in the count or gets too comfortable. The Yankees are buying the size, special arm strength, and changeup here, with the hopes that they can figure something out with the breaking ball. If he can take a step forward in that regard while holding onto average command, he's a legitimate mid-rotation starting pitcher. Cunningham will look to continue what's become a line of Yankees pitchers from small towns in Alabama, joining David Robertson, Chase Whitley, and Clay Holmes off the top of my head.

3-89: RHP Thatcher Hurd, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $838,900. Signing bonus: $837,400 ($1,500 below slot value).
My rank: #97. MLB Pipeline: #114. Baseball America: #128.
Thatcher Hurd feels like a very Yankees pick. Considered a potential second round pick out of high school in Southern California, he instead removed himself from the 2021 draft so that he could attend UCLA alongside Gage Jump, a fellow Southern Californian and arguably the top high school pitcher in the country to spurn the draft that year. Both ended up having a change of heart, as Hurd transferred to LSU after his freshman season and Jump followed him to Baton Rouge a year later. Hurd was uneven in his sophomore year in 2023 but showed enough to push himself into the first round conversation, then struggled in 2024 and lost his spot a crowded Tigers rotation. The 6'4" righty has big stuff. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has been up to 98 in short stints, at times showing big time riding life but at others flattening out a bit. His best trait is his feel for spin, with a pair of power breaking balls that flash plus at best with hard bite, though the slider is more consistent than the curveball and he didn't always show the feel to execute either of them how he wanted to in 2024. At this point, he doesn't really use his changeup. Hurd has a pretty simple delivery but doesn't always repeat it, leading to below average command and a 12.7% walk rate over the past two seasons. His stuff gets more hittable as he falls behind in the count and leaves it over the plate, which lead to his 6.55 ERA this year. The Yankees are buying his power fastball and excellent ability to snap off a hard breaking ball, hoping they can mold the rest of the profile into a starting pitcher or perhaps a power reliever. This profile reminds me a little bit of 2022 sixth rounder Chase Hampton, who is progressing nicely in the Yankees' system.

4-119: RHP Gage Ziehl, Miami {video}
Slot value: $606,700. Signing bonus: likely to be around slot value, perhaps slightly above.
My rank: #77. MLB Pipeline: #89. Baseball America: #110.
This might be my favorite pick in the Yankees' class if they can get him for a reasonable bonus. Gage Ziehl is an Upstate New Yorker, hailing from the outer Rochester suburb of Macedon, where he attended Penfield High School and earned an eleventh round selection by the Cubs as a senior. After spending three years at Miami and amassing 227.2 innings for the Hurricanes, he'll come back home to the Empire State. The. fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and has touched 97 with solid riding life, playing up a bit from a somewhat lower release point. He has great feel for his cutter/slider, which he can tighten up around 90 or manipulate to get more sweep in the mid 80's, which is still plenty hard. It's an above average pitch. There's also a changeup in there with some promise, but he doesn't use it too much just yet. For Ziehl, everything plays up because he pounds the strike zone with conviction, going right after hitters and challenging them with his solid stuff. He shows plus command on top of that, which more than makes up for his stuff being more above average than plus, so he can really execute in the zone. Scouts rave about his competitiveness as well. Sturdily built at 6', 225 pounds, he lacks projection but still looks like a bona fide #3/#4 starting pitcher who can eat plenty of innings, which he's done with 31 starts and 192 innings over the past two seasons at Miami. This pick somewhat reminds me of 2021 second rounder Brendan Beck given Ziehl's pitchability and competitive fire, though while Beck looked brilliant in his short healthy stint in 2023, he has battled injuries for a long time and has just those 34 pro innings to his name.

5-152: RHP Greysen Carter, Vanderbilt {video}
Slot value: $440,100. Signing bonus: $440,100.
My rank: #181. MLB Pipeline: #226. Baseball America: #161.
Greysen Carter is virtually the opposite of Gage Ziehl as a pitcher. While Ziehl has been as steady as they come as a stalwart member of the Miami rotation, Carter was once cut from the Vanderbilt team because he simply could not throw strikes. He worked his way back onto the team and has since spent the last two seasons serving as a swingman, albeit to uneven results with the same poor command. Carter's stuff is undeniable. The fastball sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 103, and it seems like it's coming even harder than that because he gets over six and a half feet of extension. He rips off a power curveball that looks like an above average pitch when he locates it, but he lacks feel to land it in the zone. The changeup, perhaps unsurprisingly, comes in a little too firm and again he lacks true feel for it. The command, as mentioned, is well below average and he has walked nearly 20% of the hitters he's faced in college, with his 16.4% rate in 2024 representing a career-best. Carter did throw one gem against Missouri in late March, allowing just four baserunners and one unearned run over 8.1 innings while striking out eleven, but that turned out to be his only outing of the season of greater than four innings. Carter's arm strength does not grow on trees. In fact, it really doesn't grow anywhere. The Yankees are getting a truly special arm talent here, albeit one in need of significant refinement. He's probably a reliever when it's said and done but you never know with guys like this – he lacks the command and secondaries, but at 6'4", 235 pounds, it's not like the Denver-area product lacks the physicality or arm strength to start.

6-181: LHP Griffin Herring, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $339,600. Signing bonus: $797,500 ($457,900 above slot value).
My rank: #165. MLB Pipeline: #157. Baseball America: #172.
Griffin Herring, a draft-eligible sophomore who turned 21 in May, signed for more than double slot value in the sixth round for third round money (close to pick #92). He showed well out of the LSU bullpen as a freshman in 2023, then was quietly one of the most reliable arms in the SEC in 2024 while again pitching out of the bullpen due to LSU's crowded rotation. Although he's a two-pitch bullpen guy, he does have a good chance to start in pro ball. The fastball is not overwhelming, sitting in the low 90's and topping out around 95 with more run than ride, though it plays up because he gets above average extension towards the plate. He throws an above average slider nearly as much as his fastball, which itself plays up because he has great feel to locate it to both sides of the plate. Herring is sturdily built at 6'2" and repeats his delivery well, showing above average command of both pitches and effectively maximizing his results with his pitching savvy. If the Yankees want him to start, he'll have to add a changeup and prove his command can hold together in longer stints.

7-211: RHP Wyatt Parliament, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: $265,800. Signing bonus: $199,350 ($66,450 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #478.
The Yankees got another New Yorker here, and Wyatt Parliament comes from wayyy upstate. He hails from tiny La Fargeville, population 733, which is located eighty miles north of Syracuse and fifteen miles north of Watertown/Fort Drum, close to the Canadian border. He began his career at Rutgers, where he served as both a starter and a reliever but struggled with consistency. Transferring to Virginia Tech after two seasons, he struggled to a career-worst 7.63 ERA in 2024 but his peripherals point to the potential for much stronger performance. So does the stuff. His fastball sits in the low 90's and has gotten up to 97, but it plays way above its velocity with riding and running life and a low release point. In fact, it's probably one of the sneakier fastballs in the class. He also shows a solid slider with some sweep, which plays well when he locates it but too often gets hit when he leaves it over the plate. At this point, he doesn't show much of a changeup. Parliament has long arm action and a three quarters arm slot, creating both a funky look and a much lower release point than most pitchers at hist 6'4" stature. Additionally, while many fastballs can run like his in that slot, few ride as much as his and that makes it really tough to square up the fastball up in the zone. Additionally, Parliament pounds the strike zone, showing average command of both his fastball and slider, though the control is ahead of the command. To top it off, he's extremely young for a college junior and won't turn 21 until January, making him nearly nine months younger than true sophomore Griffin Herring. I think the 7.63 ERA was both a fluke and potentially a usage issue and that he could become a legitimate fastball/slider reliever for the Yankees.

11-331: RHP Mack Estrada, Northwest Florida State JC {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: likely well above that that if he signs.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #273.
$115,900. It's unclear whether Mack Estrada will sign, but it appears that the Yankees have some money to offer him against a Florida State commitment. With only fourth rounder Gage Ziehl, Estrada, and 20th rounder Cole Royer unsigned, the Yankees have $722,600 left in their bonus pool and over $1.1 million if they use the 5% overage. Assume Ziehl signs for slot value and those numbers become $115,900 and $406,725, respectively, so the Yankees could likely offer Estrada around half a million dollars so long as Ziehl doesn't go too far above slot value. Estrada showed well as a freshman at Northwest Florida State, especially early in the season, though he faded down the stretch a bit. While the fastball touched 96 early on, it settled more in the low 90's as the year progressed, coming in with heavy, late running life. He tosses a solid slider with great finish to miss bats, while his changeup is coming along as well. With long arm action and a bit of a raw delivery, he struggled with command at times as well. Estrada has projection remaining in his 6'4" frame and will need to build up his durability in order to start in pro ball, but the Yankees think they can get him there as he has both the stuff and size to start.

14-421: 2B Austin Green, Texas Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #303.
The Yankees picked up a well-rounded bat here in the fourteenth round. Austin Green began his career at Weatherford JC in Texas, then after two seasons transferred to Texas Tech where he was one of the Red Raiders' best hitters in 2023 and 2024. While he lacks a carrying tool, he also lacks many true weaknesses. With a compact 6' frame, the switch hitter unleashes a pair of simple but powerful swings to drive the ball to all fields effectively. He has average raw pop that he taps in games, with the potential for 10-15 home runs per season at peak. He also makes plenty of contact and takes professional at bats, helping him run a minuscule 9.7% strikeout rate in 2024. He won't be a star or hit fourth at Yankee Stadium, but it's the kind of profile that can sneak up on you and earn every day playing time towards the bottom of the lineup if he keeps hitting up the ladder. The East Texas native is also a solid runner who has played mostly second base and right field during his time in Lubbock, with the ability to handle left field as well for the Yankees. The defensive versatility will help as he looks for a place to sneak his bat into the lineup in New York. He's a senior sign, but he's on the younger side for that class and only turned 22 in May.

Sunday, September 5, 2021

The Top 12 High School Pitching Prospects Headed to Campus

Earlier, we looked at the top position players reaching campus, so now we'll pivot to the pitchers. The pitchers on last year's list haven't quite made the immediate impact of last year's position players, but sometimes it takes them longer to get acclimated to the higher level. After picking up two of the top nine position player prospects in Cody Schrier and Malakhi Knight, UCLA is back with two of the top three pitching prospects to really hammer home a fantastic recruiting class. Because #10 James Peyton Smith switched up and will go the JuCo route, this list is a bit unusual in that there are no Florida Gators or LSU Tigers and only one Vanderbilt Commodore, the latter not showing up until the last spot on the list (though Florida did pick up three in the "just missed" group and LSU got one). 

1. LHP Gage Jump, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #20.
Gage Jump is the top overall prospect to reach campus, edging out #25 Peyton Stovall (Arkansas) on the position player side. Jump is a really, really interesting pitcher that has made himself a lot of fans on the West Coast and across the country despite being undersized. The 5'11" lefty has a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, while bringing a deep curveball, a distinct slider, and a changeup. Everything plays up because despite his shorter stature, he gets exceptional extension for his size and puts big spin rates on his stuff, creating a ton of movement in the best way. That fastball sneaks up on hitters and regularly evades barrels up in the zone, while his curveball plays off it really well. He does a good job of pounding the strike zone and a little more refinement when it comes to repeating his delivery could give him above average command. Jump has been noted for his knowledge of the game and feel for pitching on top of everything else, which should help him jump into that UCLA rotation right away after it lost Nick Nastrini (Dodgers, fourth round), Jesse Bergin (Marlins, eleventh round), Sean Mullen (Rays, eleventh round), and Zach Pettway (Indians, sixteenth round) to the draft. Some have compared the Orange County product to a left handed Jack Leiter, as a shorter pitcher who uses his body extremely well and understands his craft. Look for Jump to try to work his way into the first round in 2024.

2. LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Josh Hartle was among the first players to announce his intention to go to school rather than pro ball, while Wake Forest is getting exactly the kind of profile that could reemerge as an early first round pick in 2024. He's earned comps to Kyle Harrison, who signed above slot with the Giants in the third round last year, but he's seven months younger (relative to his class) and throws a bit harder at the same stage of his career. For that reason, had he been on my final rankings, he would have been just outside the first round range. Hartle sits in the low 90's and gets up to around 94, which isn't overwhelming velocity but plenty for now especially given his projection. He adds a sweepy slider with great depth that could become a plus pitch in time, though for now it lacks power and plays closer to average. He also has great feel for his changeup that rounds out his arsenal really nicely, and in turn gives him a chance for three plus pitches if all goes well at Wake Forest. The 6'5" lefty fills the strike zone consistently and repeats his low three quarters delivery well, but perhaps his best attribute is projection. With an ideal frame and an easy delivery, scouts are certain there is more velocity in the tank and he could legitimately add three to five miles per hour to his fastball in Winston-Salem as he gets stronger. Combine that with his stuff and strike throwing ability from the left side, and you have all of the ingredients for a future top ten pick, and in turn a future big league ace. Of course, he has to stay healthy, make those strength gains, and hold his command as they come in order to reach that ceiling, but I see no reason why he won't. The Winston-Salem native will be a priority follow for Carolina area scouts over the next few seasons and the Demon Deacons have likely found their heir to Ryan Cusick at the front of their rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023.

3. RHP Thatcher Hurd, UCLA (Mira Costa HS, CA). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Like Josh Hartle, Thatcher Hurd removed himself from the draft well before the event got started and therefore was not in my final rankings, but he would have ranked in the second round range. Hurd shares a lot of similarities to both Hartle and fellow UCLA commit and #1 recruit Gage Jump, with exactly the kind of profile that goes to school and reemerges as an early first round pick. Relatively new to pitching, he sits around 90 right now and gets up to around 93-94 consistently, but like Hartle, there is a ton more in the tank. His slider and curveball are two unique breaking balls that are still works in progress, but the slider regularly looks like an above average pitch already while the curveball looks like it should become at least an average offering. The changeup is a bit behind, but he does show feel for it. Everything plays up because the Oakland-area native (who transferred to the Los Angeles area for his senior year) mirrors Jump a bit in that he gets high spin rates on everything that put ride on his fastball and more movement on his breaking balls. He pounds the strike zone very well for someone who is new to pitching, and while he can be a little bit rushed in his delivery at times, it's clean overall and he repeats it well. Hurd stands out for his feel for pitching and work ethic as well, constantly looking for ways to improve his game and stand out in the crowded field of young pitchers looking for a shot. Add that onto the projection in his 6'4" frame, the freshness of his arm, and the development he'll get at UCLA, and you have a potential ace in the making. He's a bit behind Jump and slightly behind Hartle in present velocity, but he could catch up in no time. Look for Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd to lead a new era of UCLA arms and try to replicate the Trevor Bauer/Gerrit Cole era.

4. RHP Caedmon Parker, Texas Christian (The Woodlands Christian HS, TX). 2021 rank: #69.
As with Josh Hartle and Thatcher Hurd, Caedmon Parker withdrew from the draft before it started, but by then he was already on my final rankings and remained at #69. Parker, like Hartle and Hurd, is a big time projection play who has a chance to become an absolute monster under pitching guru and new TCU head coach Kirk Saarloos. His fastball is currently inconsistent in its velocity, at times chilling in the upper 80's but at others reaching back for as much as 94-95. He adds an improving curveball in addition to a sweepy slider with great depth, and he shows good feel for a changeup as well. The 6'4" righty has an ideal frame to add velocity and shows a ton of athleticism on the mound, with a springy, low effort delivery that could use a little cleanup that Saarloos and co. are certainly up to the task on. While that delivery can be a little inconsistent at times, when he is repeating it well, he shows above average command that is especially nice to see given that he's split his focus with football up to this point. The Houston-area native is also relatively young for the class and didn't turn 18 until a month before the draft, which combined with his frame, athleticism, spin rates, and natural movements on the mound should enable him to continue trending up. Parker was one of my favorite arms in this class and I had him ranked well ahead of Prospects Live (#100), MLB Pipeline (#110), and Baseball America (#222), and I look forward to following his development in Fort Worth.

5. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State (Bolles HS, FL). 2021 rank: #75.
Jackson Baumeister was trending up quickly this spring, but ultimately not quickly enough to be diverted away from a strong commitment to Florida State. Last year, the Seminoles picked up the top incoming freshman pitching prospect in the country in Carson Montgomery, who was more solid than spectacular in his debut this spring (4.50 ERA, 39/23 K/BB in 28 IP). While Montgomery stood out in part for his extreme youth, Baumeister is old for his class and is actually a couple weeks older than Montgomery despite being a grade behind. That means that he and Montgomery will both be eligible together for the 2023 draft, so he'll want to hit the ground running in Tallahassee. The good news is that Baumeister is absolutely up to the task, bringing a combination of "now" stuff and projection comparable to anybody in the class. His fastball is consistently in the low 90's now and is getting up to around 95, while his curveball shows both sharpness and depth and looks like a true plus pitch when he rips through it right. He mainly works off of those two pitches and will need to gain more feel for his changeup and perhaps get a bit more consistent with that curveball, which can be slurvy at times, but it's a really exciting package nonetheless. The 6'3" righty is a great athlete and gets down the mound extremely well, releasing the ball out in front and making his pitches jump on hitters. While the command is relatively inconsistent at this point, it has been trending in the right direction and some refinement under the Florida State coaching staff should help him get to average in that regard. If he can make incremental adjustments here and there, we've got another potential first rounder on our hands who could be truly electric when all is said and done. The Jacksonville native had a ton of fans in the 2021 draft who saw him as a clear-cut top two rounds arm already, and now he has two years to build on that.

6. RHP Chase Burns, Tennessee (Beech HS, TN). 2021 rank: #84.
Chase Burns was one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2021 class, with many believing he belonged firmly in the top two rounds (both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him in the top fifty) and others seeing a boom or bust profile that fit better in the third or fourth round. I fell into the latter bucket, but regardless the Volunteers are getting one of the single most electric arms in the entire class. Burns has an elite fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's has reached 101, playing up even further with spin rates and riding action that make it near impossible to square up. At his best, his curveball has vicious bite while his shorter slider darts away from bats late, but both are inconsistent and can flatten out regularly. He's shown the makings of a decent changeup but hasn't shown his best version of that pitch consistently yet. The 6'4" righty has done a very good job of improving his delivery and can fill up the strike zone when he's on, though his actions remain a little bit rigid for my taste and he does throw with effort, losing his arm slot at times. Hard throwing preps have had a poor track record as of late, and because he gets to his velocity more through brute force than natural extension and kinetic chain, I see considerable reliever risk here. My guess is he'll likely spend his freshman season as a reliever in Knoxville, but the Nashville-area product has a chance to prove his proponents right and his doubters wrong by sticking in the weekend rotation over a full season if not in 2022 then in 2023 and 2024. If not, the power stuff should be absolutely wicked out of a big league bullpen.

7. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX). 2021 rank: #100.
Arkansas brought in the top incoming position player prospect in the country in Peyton Stovall, and between him and Hagen Smith, the Razorbacks now have the two most dominant performers in recent memory from the Piney Woods/Ark-La-Tex region. While Stovall went on a home run barrage that seemingly lasted all season against northern Louisiana pitching, Smith threw no-hitter after no-hitter against his East Texas competition and now they'll be teaming up in Fayetteville. Smith is a really interesting arm with a fastball around 90 that can get up to around 95, showing nice arm side run from a lower arm slot. He complements that well with an above average slider that flashes plus, and also gets some drop on a decent changeup. There is some Brusdar Graterol in the profile, with most of his power coming from heavy torso rotation rather than a traditional drop and drive motion. The Arkansas coaching staff will want to smooth him out a little bit and make sure he really is getting everything he can out of his 6'3" frame, with more velocity very likely on the way as he fills out and crisps up that delivery. The Bullard, Texas native is extremely young for the class, more than a year younger than Jackson Baumeister, and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft, so he has additional time to develop. Combine that with the fact that he's coming from off the prospect map in small town East Texas, and you have a recipe for rapid improvements in Fayetteville.

8. RHP/WR Brody Brecht, Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA). 2021 rank: #111.
Brody Brecht is probably the most athletic person on this list, and it's not particularly close. He's a star football player that will be playing wide receiver at Iowa, then he ran track over the winter and into the spring and got a late start to baseball because of it. Then, at least so it seems, he just stepped on the mound and started hitting the upper 90's like it's nothing, so we're talking premium natural talent. Brecht was always going to be a tough sign because he loves football and has no plans to give it up any time soon, so we'll just have to see how it goes at Iowa. Currently, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 98, and it's really, really easy to envision more if he ever gives baseball his full attention. His slider looks like an absolute weapon at its best and he also shows good feel to spin a curveball, though for now the changeup is virtually non-existent. The 6'4" righty repeats his delivery well and stays around the zone with his stuff, so additional focus on pitching should help him get to above average command. We are talking about a huge ceiling for Brecht, with the potential to become the Big Ten's best arm since Max Meyer. For now though, we have a long way to go and we still don't have his full attention. That level of natural talent is just unbelievable.

9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery's #71 ranking is actually as a position player, where he's a switch hitter with strong feel for the barrel and some power projection. Most don't think he has quite as much impact potential as a pitcher, but he has a chance to prove them wrong with additional development at Stanford. The Jackson-area native will head a long way from Mississippi to Silicon Valley for school, where he'll simultaneously look to break into the outfield and the weekend rotation. On the mound, Montgomery shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to about 95, adding a very solid curveball and changeup that give him a great three pitch starting point. He's very poised on the mound and fills up the strike zone consistently, with an athletic, low effort delivery that could use some minor smoothing out on the arm path but which is otherwise pretty clean. He's been noted as a hard worker who really cares about his craft, so if anybody can manage the workload of developing as a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, it's him. A few years ago, we saw another BM, Brendan McKay, develop into a monster on both sides of the ball at Louisville. Montgomery probably won't match both his 2.23 career ERA and .966 career OPS, but he could be the best two-way star since McKay.

10. RHP James Peyton Smith, Northwest Florida State JC (East Robertson HS, TN). 2021 rank: #122.
James Peyton Smith was originally committed to Vanderbilt, but switched his commitment to Northwest Florida State in July so he could be eligible for the 2022 draft. Smith has seen his game grow and change over the past few years, and while Vanderbilt would have been a great place to hone his craft and put it all together, he may not have gotten as many innings as he might have liked and of course would have to wait until 2024 to get drafted. At Northwest Florida State, he'll have a much easier time finding innings and if he can put it together this spring, he could be the first JuCo pitcher drafted. The Middle Tennessee native has recently seen his fastball tick up into the mid 90's, reaching as high as 98 at his best from a low three quarters arm slot. His slider is an above average pitch at its best, while his curveball is a step behind. Smith shows great feel for his changeup, which will hold down the fort while he works on the consistency of his breaking balls. The 6'4" righty hasn't quite shown consistent feel to spot his newfound, loud stuff, though he has been a good strikethrower in the past and may just need more time to get used to the mid 90's bullets coming from his right arm. It does take some effort for him to tap that big stuff, leading to reliever risk, and he'll look to the coaching staff in Niceville to help smooth that out a bit. Regardless, I expect him to carve up Florda JuCo hitters next spring and rank among the national leaders in strikeouts at that level. If he doesn't quite get things where he wants by the 2022 draft, he can always go back for another year or transfer to another Division I program. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for his class.

11. RHP Eric Hammond, Southern California (Keller HS, TX). 2021 rank: #130.
UCLA is bringing in the best recruiting class in the country, but their cross town rivals did land Eric Hammond, who has a chance to be a first rounder in 2024. Hammond, a Texan with strong familial ties to California, already sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95-96 with plenty more projection in the tank. He also throws a slider, curve, and changeup, all of which are trending upwards and flash above average and should give him a complete arsenal to use in Los Angeles. He's generally around the zone, though command is going to be a focus point in his development over the next few years. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has a very slow, deliberate start to his delivery, but rushes through his arm stroke and finish which can affect his ability to repeat his release point. Cleaning that up is likely all that stands between Hammond and starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty offers a ton of projection and should continue to add power to his stuff, and he has a chance to be one of the best pitchers on the West Coast over the next few seasons if he develops like he's expected to. USC missed out on Marcelo Mayer, who in my opinion was the best high schooler in the entire draft class by a fair margin, but should still be happy that they landed their future Friday night starter.

12. LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt (Benedictine Military HS, GA). 2021 rank: #135.
Ask any hitter on the showcase circuit last year, and they'll tell you Carter Holton was one of the toughest at bats they had. He'll head to Vanderbilt with one less arm to compete with now that James Peyton Smith is going the JuCo route, but no matter what the situation is in Nashville, it's always tough to find innings on that staff. Holton should be up for the task rather quickly as he shows strong feel for pitching and shouldn't have too steep of a transition to facing SEC lineups, though he still should get better and better during his time there. For now, he sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96 with his fastball, adding a sweepy curve and slider that can blend into each other and a very solid changeup that plays well off the rest of his arsenal. He comes in with some crossfire action that puts tough angle on the ball and adds perceived sweep to his breaking balls, but still fills up the strike zone more often than not. 5'11" lefty lacks projection and probably won't add a ton more velocity, but as Tim Corbin and co. help him get a bit more consistent in repeating his delivery and perhaps tighten up his breaking balls a bit, we could have a Friday night man by 2024, which is no small task at Vanderbilt. He mixes his pitches extremely well and improving his command from average to above average, which I see as highly likely, will make him exactly the kind of pitcher that carves up SEC lineups as if he's still in high school. The Savannah native's size probably makes it less likely he emerges as a first round pick, but he has a very good shot at working his way into the second round range.

Others:
#141 RHP Brandon Neely, Florida (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
#157 RHP Cale Lansville, Louisiana State (Thunder Ridge HS, CO)
#164 LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida (Plant HS, FL)
#171 RHP Will Koger, Louisville (Bardstown HS, KY)
#178 RHP Max Debiec, Washington (O'Dea Catholic HS, WA)
#182 RHP Luke Holman, Alabama (Wilson HS, PA)
#187 LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida (Verona HS, NJ)
#190 RHP Roman Kimball, Notre Dame (P27 Academy, SC)