2024 MLB Draft Review: Cincinnati Reds

Full list of draftees

With their massive bonus pool, the Reds were essentially able to pull in two first round picks by floating Tyson Lewis down to the second round in exchange for a late first round bonus. There was an interesting theme here in which four of the first five college players they drafted were very well-known prospects as preps, with three of them even earning first round consideration at points in their high school careers. The Reds also valued bats that could stick up the middle and provide defensive value, something they've done in the past as well.
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Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-2: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $9.79 million. Signing bonus: $9.25 million ($535,000 below slot value).
My rank: #5. MLB Pipeline: #6. Baseball America: #4.
The Reds are no stranger to successfully drafting pitchers extremely early, with names such as Rhett Lowder (#7, 2023), Nick Lodolo (#7, 2019), and Hunter Greene (#2, 2017) all gracing their current rotation. Chase Burns, meanwhile, has a chance to be the best of an already strong group. A well-known prep out of the Nashville area in 2021, his triple digit fastball placed him squarely in the top fifty conversation that year but he ultimately stayed home to attend Tennessee. His talent was immediately clear as he put up a huge freshman season in 2022, even earning National Freshman of the Year honors from some outlets, then put up another strong sophomore season in 2023 even if his ERA was a bit higher. Already a clear first round prospect, Burns rocked the college baseball world after the season by transferring to Wake Forest, where he hoped to leverage the program's famed pitching lab to push his game to even the next level. The stuff came out even crisper than before and his 191 strikeouts led Division I by a large margin, thirty ahead of White Sox #5 overall pick Hagen Smith (Arkansas). Burns is nothing short of a monster on the mound. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and has touched as high as 102 in the past, coming in with big riding life from an over the top angle and strong extension. His slider is an absolutely filthy offering in the upper 80's with a lethal combination of power and sweep, a pitch he could tell you was coming and you could still never touch it. Burns also added a power curveball this year that he used less than his slider, but which still projects as plus with strong results. Lastly, he doesn't use it much but he's begun to work in a hard changeup around 90 to give lefties another look. While the operation looked a bit stiff in high school, he's smoothed out his delivery in Knoxville and Winston-Salem and now pounds the strike zone with average command and above average control, aggressively attacking hitters to force his way ahead in counts. A high-level competitor, he brings a ton of energy to the mound and will never back down from the moment. If there's one blemish, it's that his delivery and over the top arm path lack deception, which can lead to his fastball getting hit over the plate. He only allowed 32 runs all season, but he served up fourteen long balls. If the 6'3" righty can improve his fastball command just a tick or two, he has a shot to be the ace of a rotation full of top ten picks.

2-51: SS Tyson Lewis, Millard West HS [NE] {video}
Slot value: $1.8 million. Signing bonus: $3.05 million ($1.25 million above slot value).
My rank: #29. MLB Pipeline: #39. Baseball America: #43.
After saving half a million on Chase Burns, the Reds essentially leveraged that into another first round pick by signing Tyson Lewis to roughly the slot value for the #29 pick here at #51, steering him away from an Arkansas commitment. While MLB Pipeline and Baseball America's rankings may see that as an overpay, I'm a big fan of the pick and I think he has a chance to be the next star in what has become a long line of talented Reds infielders. A native of tiny Yutan, Nebraska, just past the ever-creeping sprawl of Omaha's cookie cutter HOA developments, he transferred from Yutan High School to local powerhouse Millard West High School in the suburbs to get more exposure. First and foremost, Lewis stands out for his athleticism. He has, without exaggeration, some of the most explosive hands in the class that help him fling the bat through the zone with ease while doing damage all over the plate. When he stays within himself, he shows easy average power, though he can get caught trying to do too much and that can artificially lengthen his swing. As he fills out his projectable 6'2" frame, he should grow into above average power, giving him a shot at 20+ home runs per season. The hit tool has been less consistent, though he is trending in the right direction and the Reds are confident he'll continue to do so. Meanwhile, Lewis shines in the dirt with quick feet and plus speed that give him a great shot to stick at shortstop in the long run. He'll have to clean up his overall glovework, but the physical tools are all there and again, the Reds are confident he can do so. If it all comes together, he has a shot to become a potential 20-20 shortstop. You can teach all kinds of skills but you can't teach the way this man moves on the diamond.

CBB-71: RHP Luke Holman, Louisiana State {video}
Slot value: $1.11 million. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($113,100 below slot value).
My rank: #57. MLB Pipeline: #45. Baseball America: #40.
These last two Reds picks just go to show the unpredictability of the draft, as Baseball America had Luke Holman ranked ahead of Tyson Lewis, but Lewis went twenty picks earlier and signed for triple the money. Holman followed a similar path to Chase Burns as a well-known prep out of the Reading, Pennsylvania area who had interest in the top five rounds but made it to campus at Alabama instead. Spending 2022 as a reliever, he turned in a strong season in the Crimson Tide rotation in 2023 and like Burns, transferred to a powerhouse program, though he went to LSU amid coaching drama in Tuscaloosa. In Baton Rouge, Holman came out of the gate absolutely untouchable with 25.2 consecutive scoreless innings, including a dozen strikeout performance against Texas and six hitless innings against Xavier (a feat he later repeated against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament). While he didn't quite hold that pace against better hitters in the SEC, he was one of the few power conference pitchers to turn in ace-like numbers in a year where offense was up across the board and it felt like everyone was playing in Coors Field, and the Reds are thrilled to get him for a much lower signing bonus than many expected. Despite the performance, the stuff doesn't jump off the page. The fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96 with big riding and running life, negated just a bit by a high release point. He throws two breaking balls, mostly leaning on his above average slider with nice late tilt while adding a fringy curveball with truer 12-6 break. Holman doesn't use his changeup much and it's below average. The 6'4" righty stands out most for his fastball command, which helps him elicit chases at a higher rate than most fastballs and limit hard contact. He's gotten better at commanding his offspeed stuff as well, and overall he has run walk rates under 10% in all three of his collegiate seasons. Holman is a smart pitcher who controls at bats and could move quickly through the minors, though his ceiling may be a bit limited to that of a #3 or #4 starter given the lack of true strikeout stuff.

3-87: OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern {video}
Slot value: $865,800. Signing bonus: $863,300 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #64. MLB Pipeline: #50. Baseball America: #70.
The Reds are buying low on Mike Sirota in hopes that he turns things around and returns to form. One of the best hitters in the Northeast as a sophomore, he eased concerns about the level of pitching he faced in the CAA by slashing .281/.395/.430 over 41 games and two seasons in the Cape Cod League. Entering 2024, he was considered a consensus first round prospect and even heard his name thrown around in top ten conversations as the best mid major prospect in the country. Unfortunately, 2024 did not go as planned as pitchers completely stopped throwing to him, and his batting average dropped from .344 to .298 and his slugging percentage from .674 to .513. When Sirota is going right, you'd be hard pressed to find a better all-around player in the country. Listed at 6'3", 190 pounds, he has an ideal frame packed with lean strength and with projection remaining. Like Tyson Lewis, he has elite hands in the box to unleash a lightning quick bat, enabling him to see the ball deep and spray the ball around the field with authority. With a bit of an uppercut, he can make his average power play up in games and he blasted eighteen home runs in 2023, back when he was getting pitches to hit. Sirota is an extremely patient hitter as well, running elite chase rates and walking in 23% of his plate appearances in 2024, helping him finish a 143 game Northeastern career with an impressive .457 on-base percentage. While he doesn't chase, the primary hole in Sirota's game has always been swing and miss. He has run higher strikeout rates than you'd like in the CAA, even in 2023 when he was at his best, and also struck out 23.7% of the time in his two years on the Cape. You can sneak high heat by him and he'll swing through high quality breaking balls in the zone, so if you know how to pitch him, you can get him out. Not only will Sirota have to regain the form he had in 2023, he'll also need to remedy the in-zone swing and miss that has always been an issue. Defensively, the Queens native has the potential to be a plus defender in center field with his plus speed and plus arm. That takes pressure off the bat and gives him a nice floor as a glove-first fourth outfielder. The Reds think they can get him back to his old self, where he entered the 2024 season with projections of hitting 20-25 home runs per season with high, walk-driven on-base percentages. If you squint, and if he can make a little more contact, you can see a right handed Brandon Nimmo-like package here.

4-117: 2B Peyton Stovall, Arkansas {video}
Slot value: $618,800. Signing bonus: $625,000 ($6,200 above slot value).
My rank: #85. MLB Pipeline: #77. Baseball America: #123.
Continuing a bit of a theme, Peyton Stovall was also considered a top prospect for the 2021 draft out of high school. In fact, Stovall was considered an even better prospect than both Burns and Holman that year following a massive senior season at Haughton High School outside of Shreveport (alma mater of Dak Prescott) in which he torched northern Louisiana pitching. Despite being firmly in the first round conversation, he held firm on his commitment to Arkansas and as the #25 player on my board, he ranked as the top position player and #2 overall prospect reaching campus that year behind UCLA's (and now the A's') Gage Jump. A starter in Fayetteville from day one, he battled nagging injuries throughout his time there and didn't quite break out until this year, where he re-established himself as an early round draft prospect. Stovall doesn't have a standout tool, but the whole is greater than the sum of his parts. He gets to balls all over the zone with a simple left handed swing and adjustable hands, totaling out to above average bat to ball ability. Combine that with a patient approach and it's an above average hit tool, though his strikeout rate has been just a bit higher than you'd expect given the high contact and low chase rates. While he's not huge at 5'11", his strong pitch recognition helps him turn balls when he needs to and tap his average power in games, giving his overall offensive profile a nice projection for something like 10-15 home runs per season with good on-base percentages. Stovall is not the most explosive athlete with fringy defensive tools across the board, but he's gritty in the dirt and gets the job done with a steady glove and willingness to go all out for balls in the hole. That gives him every chance to stick at second base and potentially fill in at third base in a reserve role, though his arm would be stretched there. This is a well-rounded profile that strikes you as the kind you'd like to have in your dugout. In his brief pro debut, he slashed .235/.355/.333 with more walks (9) than strikeouts (7) in sixteen games for Low A Daytona.

5-150: LHP Tristan Smith, Clemson {video}
Slot value: $448,700. Signing bonus: $600,000 ($151,300 above slot value).
My rank: #151. MLB Pipeline: #73. Baseball America: #81.
And what do you know, we have another former top high school prospect, this time from the 2022 class. Tristan Smith was considered one of the better high school pitchers in the country that year and had his name on the fringes of the first round conversation, but he wound up at Clemson where he put up two solid seasons. The profile is pretty similar to what it was two years ago. His fastball sits in the low 90's and touches 96, albeit with average movement. His slider is his best pitch, flashing plus with sharp two plane bite, while his above average changeup was one of the better left handed cambios in this class. The 6'2" lefty creates some deception with a crossfire delivery that makes it difficult to pick up the ball, but he can also be a bit of a stiff mover. His fastball command is subpar at this point and makes it difficult to get ahead and stay ahead in counts, running a walk rate over 15% for his career. Interestingly, he does command the slider well which further plays into its projection as a plus pitch. There are clear things to work on here, notably the fastball command and fastball movement profile, but there are also clear separators here as a physical lefty with two above average offspeed pitches. He also showed very well against elite competition in the Cape Cod League last summer (3.29 ERA, 38/14 K/BB in 27.1 innings) and has a long track record of performance going back to his prep days. After signing for fourth round money as a draft-eligible sophomore, Smith has a chance to pitch his way into a mid-rotation starting role if he can figure out his fastball, with a fallback as a three pitch lefty reliever.

8-239: RHP Luke Hayden, Indiana State {video}
Slot value: $217,400. Signing bonus: $197,500 ($19,900 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #400.
Luke Hayden is a semi-local pick for the Reds. Having grown up just over one hundred miles west of Cincinnati in in Bloomington, Indiana, where he attended Edgewood High School in nearby Ellettsville, he stayed home for school and spent two years at Indiana University. He struggled there with an ERA over seven and a WHIP nearing two, then transferred to Indiana State for a much better junior season. He committed to transfer once more to LSU in 2025, but took the Reds offer here in the eighth round instead. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97-98 at peak, showing high spin but overall average movement. Like Smith, his go-to offspeed is an above average slider with hard, late snap, a pitch which can get both lefties and righties out. Without much of a changeup, combined with a high effort delivery that leads to below average command, he projects as a reliever in pro ball. In that role, the fastball velocity could climb even higher to offset the lack of life and he could pitch more consistently off of his slider. In four relief appearances for Low A Daytona, he allowed three runs (two earned) over five innings while striking out six and walking two.

10-299: C Yanuel Casiano, Albergue Olimpico Academy [PR] {video}
Slot value: $182,200. Signing bonus: $122,500.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #438.
In Yanuel Casiano, the Reds have picked up the single youngest player in the entire draft. The only player in the class born in 2007, he won't even turn 18 until just before his first spring training. Previously a UCF commit, he will instead take his time and move slowly through the Reds system. Casiano is a glove-first catcher who has impressed evaluators with plus arm strength and quickness out of the crouch, though the accuracy isn't quite there yet and his throws can pull infielders off the bag. He's a solid defender behind the plate who as you'd expect has lots of work to do to refine things, but among his age group peers, he's exactly where he needs to be to become a big league caliber catcher. The bat is a bit behind. He hasn't performed much against high level showcase competition and didn't send evaluators home thinking they had the next Mike Piazza on their hands this spring. There's some pop to the pull side, but not enough to be a separator. The Reds see an extremely young kid who should have only been a high school junior last year and expect significant strength gains as he matures, with a sturdy 6' frame that could carry plenty of muscle in time. If all goes well, he has a chance to be a glove-first backup catcher with enough power to keep pitchers honest.

15-449: RHP Jordan Little, Virginia Tech {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked.
Jordan Little may have ran an 8.58 ERA over the course of his three year college career, but the Reds see big stuff and think they can get the most out of it. He began his career at East Carolina, where he made just five appearances over two seasons and allowed eight runs over 2.2 innings, then transferred to Virginia Tech. He got blown up at times and ran a 6.66 ERA, but that number drops to 2.74 if you remove his three worst appearances out of 21 and he looked as sharp as anybody on the roster when he was at his best. The fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, touching 96 and coming in with hard running action from a lower release point. That gives him a real above average fastball, one which should continue to chew up bats in pro ball. He actually throws his slider more than his fastball, a big breaking two-plane breaker in the low 80's that missed a ton of bats in 2024 despite its high usage. Little is athletic on the mound and despite his name brings plenty of projection in his ideal 6'4" frame. There is some jerk in his delivery, but the command is actually pretty solid and his poor results were more a matter of inconsistent feel for his stuff rather than inconsistent command. He's likely a reliever all the way, though with two above average pitches, projection remaining, and solid command for a reliever, he has a chance to earn meaningful innings in Cincinnati.

2024 MLB Draft: Ten options for the Nationals at pick #10

A year ago, the Nationals took picked second overall and took LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, who in my opinion was the very best player available on draft day. In fact, he's the most impressive hitter I have ever seen at the college level, standing up to such names as Spencer Torkelson, Austin Martin, Andrew Vaughn, Wyatt Langford, and Adley Rutschman. In 2024, the Nationals actually won the draft lottery and the opportunity to pick first overall, but because they picked inside the lottery last year and are a revenue sharing team, they got bumped down to #10.

Mike Rizzo used to have a type. In the past, he leaned heavily on established college starting pitchers like Cade Cavalli, Erick Fedde, and Dane Dunning and buy-low options coming off injuries or other issues like Seth Romero, Mason Denaburg, and Lucas Giolito. Lately, he has pivoted towards prep bats early and took Brady House and Elijah Green in back to back first rounds in 2021 and 2022. Now, with a relatively imbalanced farm system brimming with top-end bats (especially outfield bats) but nearly completely devoid of pitching, it's hard to peg what direction he'll go. If the draft were to be held today, there would be three names Nationals fans could comfortably write off: West Virginia second baseman JJ Wetherholt, Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana, and Wake Forest first baseman Nick Kurtz. They are more or less the consensus top three players in the draft and are not in a position to make it to #10.

So who does that leave open for the Nationals? Even with those big three bats more or less out of the question unless the underperform this spring, it's still a class chock full of bats, specifically college bats in this range. Would the Nationals want to further add to a position of strength, or try to fill out the bone-dry pitching pipeline? My answer of course is that you never draft for need, and should always draft the best player available, but we'll see what Rizzo chooses to do. There are also a few college arms that look to make sense in that range and you know Rizzo would love to get his hands on one, while a couple of prep bats also figure to hang around that range if we want to go back to that well. Here are ten options, along with their rank on my recent top 40.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
If I were in charge, this is the name I'd have circled. For now, I'm fully on board the Jac Caglianone train should he be available at pick #10, which he very well may be. Caglianone is a two-way player with ridiculous physical ability on both sides of the ball, and once he drops one to focus on the other, he could become a monster (if you don't already consider him one). Standing 6'5", 245 pounds with long arms and legs, he is ridiculously strong and creates as much leverage as anybody. That plays into plus-plus power which helped him set the single season BBCOR-era (since 2011) home run record with 33 bombs in just 71 games, good for a .738 slugging percentage. He can wallop towering moonshots to the pull side or easily clear the left field fence for backside home runs. At the same time, he is one of the most aggressive hitters in college baseball and freely chases, and that attribute may be the key in getting the first nine teams to pass on him. Still, even with the free swinging mentality, he runs solid contact rates and SEC pitchers simply could not get him out last year (.299/.370/.684 in SEC play, chock full of pro-caliber pitching). Should he clean up his approach even just a little, he'd really round out what's looking to be a fearsome future middle of the lineup in DC. However, his future may very well be on the mound, and heaven knows the Nationals need that. The fastball sits in the mid 90's and can touch triple digits with run, further showcasing his freakish physical ability. His slider and changeup are more average to above average pitches rather than plus, but if he gives up hitting to focus on pitching, you can see them taking a step forward. For now, the biggest issue on the mound is his inconsistency in repeating his delivery, as he sometimes looks like he's still growing into his ultra lanky frame. That gives him below average command and creates some reliever risk. Fellow Gator AJ Puk comes to mind as a comp, though Puk had a better breaking ball at this stage.

OF Charlie Condon, Georgia. My rank: #7.
The Nationals have some serious bats coming up through the pipeline, but most of them are right handed beyond James Wood and Daylen Lile. Like Jac Caglianone, Charlie Condon would give them some serious left handed thunder to balance that out. Despite sitting out his 2022 freshman season at Georgia, Condon exploded onto the scene with a massive 2023 in which he slashed .386/.484/.800 with 25 home runs in 56 games. He's a hulking presence in the box at 6'6" with man strength, deploying that size into plus-plus raw power that he taps consistently in games without over-swinging. A pretty patient hitter, his approach has played up against high level competition as he demolished SEC pitching last year (.339/.436/.804, 16 HR in 30 games) and struck out just 8% of the time on the Cape over the summer. Still, he does show some swing and miss, especially against quality offspeed stuff, so he'll look to even that out a bit in 2024. If the Nationals were to draft him, they'd have to really believe in his bat, as he'd likely end up a first baseman in this system. He's a fringy runner who plays a reasonably solid corner outfield, but the Nationals have so many outfielders that it's hard to see him beating out guys like Wood, Dylan Crews, Elijah Green, and Robert Hassell from a defensive perspective. I think the bat will profile just fine at first base and he could anchor Nationals lineups for years to come.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #9.
Right now, Chase Burns is looking like the best pitcher available in the draft so there's a very good chance he's gone well before the Nationals pick at #10. However, pitchers are fickle and you never know, and we do know Mike Rizzo would love to balance out the system a bit with a legitimate future ace like Burns. A famous prospect coming out of high school in the Nashville area, he made it to campus at Tennessee and shined for two years before transferring to Wake Forest this year. In high school, he was primarily known for his arm strength and electric stuff, but he has smoothed out his delivery and is looking more and more like a starting pitcher. The stuff is as explosive as ever. His fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and hit 101 in a pre-spring tuneup for the Demon Deacons, and it shows nice carrying life to boot. However, the triple digit fastball is only his second best pitch. Burns rips off a plus-plus slider around 90 with hard, nasty bite that could strike out major league hitters right now. Now at Wake Forest under the tutelage of renowned pitching coach Corey Muscara, his next step is to continue incorporating his curveball and changeup more into the arsenal, and that's certainly something Rizzo would like to see. While he's still control over command, Burns has been in the zone more and more and projects to stick as a starting pitcher. If the command and changeup can each tick up a half grade or so, he could be a frontline guy.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank #10.
Sure, the Nationals' system is chock full of young outfield prospects. But Konnor Griffin bears so much resemblance to the guys Mike Rizzo has targeted in the past that it's hard to rule him out here. Griffin is by many accounts the top prospect in a down year for high schoolers, on my list clocking in one spot ahead of second place PJ Morlando, who didn't crack this article but would certainly make sense. Griffin was originally a member of the 2025 class, but he would have turned 19 in the middle of his senior season and reclassified to 2024, where he is now age-appropriate. If nothing else, this kid is tooled up. He brings premium physicality and athleticism in an ideal 6'4" frame. That translates into big bat speed and potential plus power from the right side, which he taps consistently against good pitching. He has a long track record of performance despite the reclassification, with plenty of experience against higher level arms. The Mississippi native didn't quite dominate the way some scouts hoped last summer, but he's 17 years old and that's just about the only "hole" in his profile. Griffin's athleticism translates to the field, where his plus speed, plus arm, and shortstop background could make him an above average or better defender in center field. This could represent a less extreme version of Elijah Green if the Nats stick him into their system.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #12.
Hagen Smith isn't quite the prototypical arm that Mike Rizzo likes to target early in the draft, but if Chase Burns is off the board at this point and he still wants to add pitching, it's hard to ignore the loud package Smith brings to the table. Like Burns, he was a very well-known prospect as an East Texas prep in 2021 but made it to campus at Arkansas, where he has continued to elevate his game. Smith's fastball has crept up steadily during his time in Fayetteville. It hovered around 90 and topped out at 95 in high school, but he was consistently in the low 90's early in his college career, reached the upper 90's in short stints as a sophomore, then reportedly touched triple digits in fall practice at the outset of his junior year. It's a running fastball from a lower slot, making it difficult to square up and lift. His slider gives him a second easy plus pitch with late, deep break to seemingly fall off the table and confound hitters. He's added a cutter to play off his fastball, which he is still working on, while his splitter has flashed considerable promise even if it's not the most consistent pitch just yet. Like Burns, Smith has smoothed out his delivery at Arkansas and that, combined with strength gains on his projectable 6'3" frame, has helped him unlock more than a few ticks of velocity. The next step will be command, as he still gets disjointed at times and loses feel for his release point, leading to below average command. Because of that, and because he's bigger and stronger, Burns probably has the better shot to stick in a big league rotation, but Smith is the better athlete and I see him continuing to rocket up prospect lists as he develops. He's also extremely young for a college junior, not turning 21 until a month after the draft, giving him extra time to figure it out. The fastball/slider combination is absolutely electric and I believe he will continue to improve.

RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa. My rank: #14.
Rounding out the big three power arms, all showing electric fastball/slider combinations, is Brody Brecht, the best athlete of the bunch. Like Burns and Smith, he was also a well-known prospect as a prep in the Des Moines area who made it to campus at Iowa, but it wasn't just baseball pulling him to Iowa City. Brecht was also a member of the Hawkeye football team, but as his baseball career has continued to take off, he dropped the gridiron to focus on pitching. Heck, if I could throw as hard as he could, I would too. Brecht sits upper 90's and regularly pops into triple digits, giving him as far as I know the hardest fastball in college baseball. The pitch lacks typical run and ride, rather coming in with some cutting action instead. The velocity is more impressive than the shape, but at 100, you don't need explosive ride. As with Burns and Smith, he rips off a nasty slider that parks around 90 or above with hard, late, two-plane bite. It's a plus-plus pitch. Also like Burns and Smith, Brecht is still working on his curveball and changeup, which aren't quite as loud but still show promise. And like Smith, Brecht has struggled a bit with command. If the Nationals are going to take the risk here, they're going to have to be comfortable with converting his incredible athleticism into more repeatable mechanics without sacrificing the electric stuff. And if Brecht can take a step forward in that regard this spring, he may not be around for the Nationals to pick at #10.

3B Tommy White, Louisiana State. My rank: #15.
Why not make it two years in a row drawing from that elite LSU lineup? It wasn't just Dylan Crews swinging his way to a National Championship by himself, as Tommy White served as his chief protection in the lineup. Crews hit a ridiculous .426/.567/.713, but White wasn't far behind at .374/.432/.725 and both out-slugged him and out-homered him (24 to 18). White is a special hitter, to say the least. He has downright ridiculous hands that enable him to effortlessly fling the barrel through the zone at a high speed, producing plus-plus raw power that has helped him slam 51 home runs in just 121 games in college, good for a career .740 slugging percentage. White can get to the ball anywhere in the zone, even outside of it, and do damage to all fields. He may actually have plus bat to ball skills in addition to his plus-plus power, something you rarely ever see. That said, his main flaw in the box is his approach, as he's extraordinarily aggressive and pro pitchers will take advantage of that. If the Nationals buy the bat at #10, they'll be buying into his extraordinary natural talent in the box while hoping they can coach him to a more selective approach. To foot stomp the importance of doing so, White is a well below average athlete that is unlikely to stick at third base, instead looking at a likely career at first base or DH. If he joins the Nationals' system, he'll be rejoining not only Crews but Elijah Green, whom he teamed with at IMG Academy in Florida.

RHP Levi Sterling, Notre Dame HS [CA]. My rank: #17.
The Nationals haven't selected a prep pitcher in the first round since Mason Denaburg in 2018, though to be fair, Travis Sykora received back of the first round money in the third round in 2023. Levi Sterling isn't quite there yet in terms of pitching his way to the Nationals at #10, but I think he has every opportunity to do so. Hailing from the same Notre Dame High School in Los Angeles that produced Hunter Greene, Giancarlo Stanton, and many others, Sterling only sits around 90 with his fastball and tops out at 94, very modest by today's standards. His secondary arsenal is made up of a sweeping, slurvy curveball around 80, a tighter cutter, and an above average splitter. There's no true out pitches here, but Sterling is extremely projectable at 6'4" and won't turn 18 until after the draft, making him very young for the class. With a free and easy delivery and a virtual guarantee to add significant physicality over the next few years, he should add velocity quickly. Sterling also shows above average command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, putting him in uncommon territory for a high school pitcher. If Sterling shows even a modest bump in velocity this spring while holding his command and staying healthy, he could tempt Rizzo with the tenth overall pick.

LHP Jonathan Santucci, Duke. My rank: #25.
If the draft were today, I don't think Jonathan Santucci would be under consideration. But after missing the final two months of the season in 2023 with elbow problems, a healthy 2024 could easily propel him into the Nationals' sights. Health aside, the profile belongs in the middle of the first round. He sits in the low 90's and tops out around 96 with his fastball, playing up with plenty of riding life. His slider looks like a true plus pitch when he locates it, while his changeup has continued to step forward and looks like it could become a weapon. Santucci's whole arsenal should gain more consistency as he gets more consistent innings, and with a sturdy 6'2" frame and clean, natural actions on the mound, he should be able to stay healthy enough to do so. I could certainly see him pushing himself into the upper tier of college starting pitchers this spring with a healthy spring where he shows three above average to plus pitches with solid command from the left side. And if he does that, Mike Rizzo will be interested.

LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest. My rank: #27.
We'll round out our list with one more college arm. Josh Hartle ranks near the back of the first round on my board but by most accounts fits somewhere in the middle of the first round, meaning he won't have to do much extra to earn consideration at pick #10. Like many names on this list, he was a famous prep in the class of 2021 but pulled himself out of the draft because he was set on attending Wake Forest just across town from where he grew up in the Winston-Salem area. Hartle's polish was immediately evident as he made 14 starts as a true freshman, then he took a big step forward as a sophomore where he was quietly one of the best pitchers in college baseball. The polish will certainly have Rizzo interested. It's a below average fastball sitting in the low 90's and topping at 94 with sinking life, while his two-plane, slurvy curveball gets swings and misses and his changeup looks solid. Everything plays way up though because he shows plus command with both his fastball and his offspeed stuff, missing far more bats than you'd expect (33.4% K rate in 2023) and setting him up well to handle more disciplined pro hitters. Really, it's a very similar profile to Levi Sterling if you flip the handedness, with Hartle having the advantage of an excellent 2023 in the ACC and Sterling having the advantage of being three and a half years younger. Like Sterling, it may only take a small bump up in velocity for Hartle to earn the selection to the Nationals at pick #10.

2024 MLB Draft: Ten candidates to go first overall

The 2024 draft season is upon us, and the 76-86 Cleveland Guardians own the first overall pick. Thanks to the draft lottery, with a .469 winning percentage last year, they'll be the best team ever to pick first overall by that measure. For that reason it's a great time to be a Guardians fan, as the team will have a slew of elite bats available to them in a class heavily favoring college hitters. As it turns out, the 71-91 Nationals actually won the lottery, but were ineligible to claim the first overall pick because they picked second last year. At this point, three position players seem to have separated themselves at the top of the draft in Oregon State's Travis Bazzana, West Virginia's JJ Wetherholt, and Wake Forest's Nick Kurtz. Of course, lots will change between now and July, and the gap between those three and the rest of the class is fairly slim as is. Overall, though, the top of the class is chock full of college bats, including the top six players on my current draft rankings (including one two-way player). The top of the high school class is a bit light for now, but that will also likely change between now and July.

The Guardians have shown a very clear draft strategy for a while now, especially in their position players. When it comes to position players, they love three things – youth, a polished hit tool, and the ability to stick up the middle. Fortunately for them, in this year's class, there are a ton of bats that fit those qualifications. Let's break down ten early candidates heading into the season.

2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State. My rank: #1.
Travis Bazzana isn't quite as young as the Guardians typically like, set to turn 22 before the end of his first pro season this upcoming summer, but I would take a long, long look at him if I were them. The Australian slugger broke out in 2023 by slashing .374/.500/.622 with eleven home runs as a sophomore at Oregon State, then continued his white hot hitting against elite pitching on the Cape with a .382/.474/.576 line over 36 games. An extraordinarily disciplined hitter, he walked more than he struck out both at Oregon State and on the Cape, the latter of which is exceedingly uncommon for a slugger. Beyond his trained eye at the plate, he has strong bat to ball ability and his compact strength in his 6' frame gives him at least above average power, likely plus to the pull side. It's an extremely complete offensive profile with the potential for 20+ home runs annually alongside on-base percentages approaching .400. Beyond the bat, he's a plus runner who stole 52 bases in 59 attempts (88% success) in 97 games combined between OSU and the Cape this year. Defensively, he fits Cleveland's up the middle preference with bouncy, athletic actions on the dirt that will make him a strong defender at second base. There's some potential at shortstop, though his average arm is a touch light for the position.
What he needs to do: Keep hitting, plain and simple. Bazzana already ranks first on my list, albeit by a slim margin. His speed and defense give him a leg up on some of the other early 1-1 candidates, so continuing to hit at a high level gives him every chance to hear his name first.

2B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia. My rank: #2.
JJ Wetherholt brings a very similar profile to Travis Bazzana. He's coming off an absurd sophomore season in which he hit .449/.517/.787 with 16 home runs for West Virginia, then raked both with the US Collegiate National Team (.263/.481/.579) and on the Cape (.321/.406/.571). Similar to Bazzana, he's on the older side and will turn 22 right around the end of his first pro season, but also like Bazzana, the bat is so loud that he'll be hard to ignore. Personally, I set Bazzana slightly ahead because he's a bit more explosive as an athlete and a bit more disciplined at the plate, but Wetherholt is every bit the ballplayer that Bazzana is. The pure bat to ball here is absolutely elite, some of the best not just in this class but in the past several classes. In fact, he struck out just once in 32 plate appearances against elite pitching on the Cape, and this is despite running moderately high chase rates. Wetherholt can simply get the fat part of the bat on the ball no matter where it's pitched. While he's not physically imposing at 5'11", that elite feel for the barrel helps his average raw power play way up in games with a barrage of extra base hits and the ability to sneak the ball out to all fields. An above average runner, the Pittsburgh-area product has strong instincts on the bases to help the speed play as plus in terms of its ability to impact games. The speed gives him nice range at second base, though he doesn't quite have the arm or explosive athleticism required to play shortstop in pro ball.
What he needs to do: For me, Bazzana has a slight, slight leg up at this point due to his patience and explosiveness. However, Wetherholt did have a better season statistically than Bazzana did last year and if both repeat their 2023 numbers, it would be hard to bet against Wetherholt. Dropping his chase rate just a touch while proving his defense at second base would likely make him the favorite to go 1-1.

1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest. My rank: #3.
Nick Kurtz doesn't exactly fit the Guardians' archetype as a power hitting first baseman, and if the draft were today, I think Cleveland would be choosing between JJ Wetherholt and Travis Bazzana. However, Kurtz brings the most potent bat in the entire class, bar none, and any minor steps back from Wetherholt or Bazzana could push Kurtz straight to the top of the pack. He's coming off a monster sophomore season in which he slashed .353/.527/.784 with 24 home runs, and that .527 on-base percentage was the tops among all underclassmen nationwide, just ahead of second place Wetherholt (.517). In Kurtz, we're talking massive power. Standing 6'5" and weighing in at 235 pounds, he uses that big frame to generate effortless power from the left side, just dropping his hands to the ball, whipping the bat through the zone, and sending it out to parking lots in all directions. Not just a slugger, Kurtz pairs that plus-plus raw power with an extremely polished hit tool. He rarely chases and draws a ton of walks, and when pitchers come in the zone, his swing is plenty adjustable to be able to reach balls in all quadrants and do damage.  You really have to execute your game plan to perfection, then find some luck on top of that, to get him out. Pitchers did so less than half the time last year. The vast majority of Kurtz's value is tied to his bat, but the Lancaster, Pennsylvania native is more agile than you'd think for a kid that big and plays a very fine first base. Overall, he could become a 40 home run bat with high on-base percentages at peak, giving the Guardians a brand new Jim Thome.
What he needs to do: I don't think there's much he can do necessarily. Kurtz is already the best hitter in the draft, and there's a good chance he still is come July. Many teams, especially the Guardians, will look for any excuse to avoid a first baseman at the top of the draft, so his best hope is likely if Bazzana and Wetherholt fail to take the next step forward in 2024. This is absolutely not a criticism of Kurtz, but more the reality of how the Guardians and other teams view players this far down the defensive spectrum.

1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida. My rank: #4.
This is the most fun profile at the top of the draft. It's natural to think of Shohei Ohtani when evaluating two-way players, but I really think that comp carries some weight here. Listed at 6'5", 245 pounds, Jac Caglianone is an absolute beast of a man with the ability to channel his immense size and strength into impact on both sides of the ball. He slashed .323/.389/.738 as a sophomore while setting the single season BBCOR era (since 2011) home run record at 33, carrying Florida to the College World Series Finals against LSU. The raw power here is frankly unbelievable. Caglianone has long, strong arms and legs and unleashes them for absolutely towering home runs at an extraordinarily high frequency – he homered more than once every ten plate appearances in 2023. His hand-eye coordination is also extremely impressive for such a tall, young kid. At this point, his approach is extremely raw and will need to be refined in pro ball. The Tampa native employs a heavy pull-oriented approach, allowing him to wallop baseballs into parking lots in right field, and his strength also enables his mishits to go land beyond the left field fence. He's also extremely aggressive, walking at just a 5.3% clip last year and running a slightly elevated 18.2% strikeout rate. He'll have to clean that up if he wants to handle pro pitching, as he's limited to first base with below average speed and the pressure will be on his bat. "CagliOhtani" is equally impressive on the mound, having posted a 4.34 ERA and an 87/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 74.2 innings this past season. The lefty can run his fastball into triple digits with some run and ride, holding mid 90's velocity deep into his starts. His power slider gets into the upper 80's and he can morph it into a bit of a cutter, while his changeup gets nice fade to round out a four pitch mix. At this point, he struggles to repeat his crossfire delivery and that led to a 16% walk rate. Caglianone was very inconsistent in 2023, his first year pitching at the collegiate level, and has not shown the ability to hit spots with any repeatability. Overall, we're talking about the highest upside in the entire draft, upside which will come into focus once he focuses on one or the other.
What he needs to do: For Caglianone, it's pretty clear. As a hitter, he'll need to clean up his approach, plain and simple. That means using the whole field with intention and laying off breaking balls out of the zone. On the mound, he'll need to show a cleaner delivery and take a step forward with one of his secondary pitches. If he can finish that to-do list on one side of the ball or the other, I'd give him a long look at 1-1.

SS Seaver King, Wake Forest. My rank: #5.
Seaver King fits the Guardians' profile to a tee. He spent the last two years at Division II Wingate, but mashed to the tune of a .408/.453/.695 line with eleven home runs in 2023 and it became clear he did not belong at the level. Challenged with a stint in the Cape Cod League, representing a massive jump in competition for him, he passed with flying colors by slashing .424/.479/.542 in 16 games, thrusting himself into the first round picture just like that. This profile is driven by bat to ball. King has elite hand-eye coordination, covering the entire plate exceptionally well to the point where he almost never swings through a hittable pitch. Even after jumping from DII to Cape Cod League pitching, he ran just a 12.9% strikeout rate at the latter. At present, he's a very aggressive hitter that makes plenty of contact on balls out of the zone as well, so he rarely walks, though in the small sample his walk rate jumped from 7.3% at Wingate to 10% on the Cape. It will be very interesting to see how King's approach develops at Wake Forest, where he'll face stronger pitching with better scouting reports and won't be able to get away with chasing as often as he does. The Athens, Georgia native is not overly physical at a listed 6', 190 pounds, but he shows a very quick bat from the right side and shows some sneaky power, especially to the pull side. His present approach, which seems unlikely to change, is more geared towards lashing hard line drives to all fields so he likely tops out around 15-20 home runs per season. Beyond the bat, King is a plus runner with nice range on the infield, and with an arm a tick better than that of Travis Bazzana and JJ Wetherholt, he has a better shot to play shortstop at the big league level.
What he needs to do: King is transferring up from Division II to the ACC. He'll need to control the strike zone a little bit better against better stuff, and an uptick to fringe average or average power would be nice as well. If he can continue hitting like he did on the Cape, getting on base at a high clip while showing some power, it will be hard for Cleveland to pass up a potential high average, speedy shortstop.

OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina. My rank: #6.
So far, every player on this list is coming off a monster season, but Vance Honeycutt isn't quite in the same boat. He took the ACC by storm with a strong freshman season in 2022, but regressed to slash just .257/.418/.492 with 12 home runs as a sophomore in 2023. However, he has as much upside as any player in this class and could easily swing his way to the first overall selection if everything comes together. Ideally built with an athletic, projectable 6'3" frame, he's plenty strong already and figures to get even stronger as he fills out. Honeycutt employs a lightning quick right handed swing and shows the ability to elevate with authority, helping him project for plus power in pro ball. He also employs a very selective approach and forces pitchers to come to him, though his pure feel for the barrel leaves some to desired and represents the biggest hole in his game. The North Carolina native really shored up his approach in 2023 but didn't hit for nearly as much impact, watching his slugging percentage drop from .672 to .492. A plus runner, he is a fearless defender in center field who made numerous highlight reel catches at the wall last year. Between his speed, his polish in the grass, and his plus arm, he has a shot to contend for Gold Gloves in center field.
What he needs to do: The road for Honeycutt is clear. He needs to find a way to make more contact in the zone while maintaining his power, which can be a tricky task. If he can do that, though, he has All Star upside as a Gold Glove center fielder who hits for power and steals bases at a high clip.

RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest. My rank: #7.
At this point last year, Chase Dollander was the consensus top pitching prospect in the country. This year, no single pitcher has separated himself from the pack, and there is a group of three to four college arms that all find themselves more or less in the same tier. Chase Burns has the slightest of edges in that group right now, and I also think he's the most likely to both earn his way to the top and also fit in with Cleveland's plans. Burns was a big name prospect coming out of the Nashville area in 2021, but made it to campus at Tennessee and made an immediate impact, putting up a 3.54 ERA and a 217/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 152.1 innings during his two seasons in Knoxville. Transferring across the Smokies to Wake Forest, he could take another step forward in the program's famous pitching lab that has given us first rounders Rhett Lowder, Jared Shuster, and Ryan Cusick among many other success stories. While Burns is power over polish, he's steadily improving in the latter department and would fit well in Cleveland. The fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's and regularly reaches triple digits, enough to blow hitters away even when he doesn't locate it precisely. The real story here is an absolute banger of a slider, which peaks its head into the low 90's with nasty late bite to make hitters look just straight up silly. Mostly just a fastball/slider guy for now, he's beginning to incorporate his curveball and changeup into his arsenal more and I expect those to take a larger role now in the Wake system. The 6'4" righty smoothed out his delivery nicely at Tennessee since looking a bit relieverish as a high schooler, and the result has been a consistent barrage of strikes. He's a bit lacking when it comes to in-zone command, but when your fastball touches triple digits and your slider sits around 90, just getting it in the zone is often good enough. Anybody who throws as hard as he does is always an injury question mark, though he otherwise appears durable.
What he needs to do: The fastball and slider are there. Now, he needs to show he can effectively work deeper into his arsenal by incorporating that curveball and changeup. Burns also needs to fine tune his command a bit to land in Cleveland, as pounding the strike zone like he does will be enough to get him to the big leagues but better in-zone command will make him an ace.

LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas. My rank: #9.
Hagen Smith, like Chase Burns, was a well-known prep coming out of the East Texas high school ranks in 2021 and made it to campus in the SEC, and now he joins Burns in that top tier of arms in 2024. While he hasn't quite put it all together yet, he has turned in two very solid seasons in the Razorbacks rotation and brings some of the loudest upside in the class to 2024. The fastball has been steadily ticking up for a while now, typically parking in the low to mid 90's last spring and reportedly reaching triple digits in the fall. He's still learning to harness his slider, but his best ones have late, nasty, two-plane bite that makes it easy to project as a plus pitch. Similarly, Smith's splitter is a bit less consistent than his slider, but it too shows above average upside. The 6'3" lefty comes from a lower slot with an unconventional delivery, providing some deception and giving his fastball tough plane to go with some run and ride. That delivery, which features heavy drop and drive and somewhat of a stabby arm action, has led to below average command to this point. Given the fact that he has made 26 starts and thrown 149 innings over his first two years in Fayetteville while showing a solid 4.17 ERA and a 199/88 strikeout to walk ratio, it hasn't held him back yet, and he has every opportunity to make further progress as he settles into his draft year. If he can fine tune his command closer to average, he has real ace upside with three potential above average to plus pitches. The fact that he won't turn 21 until the end of his first pro season will also certainly look good in the Guardians' age-friendly draft model.
What he needs to do: Smith is already touching triple digits while showing off a banger slider, and he's proven he can hold his stuff deep into starts and over a long season. At this point, only his command is holding him back from ascending to the top of the draft. Cut that 13.5% walk rate down to around 7-8% and he'll be in business.

OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Prep HS [MS]. My rank: #10.
The Guardians love preps, especially prep bats, but none have separated themselves into the elite tier quite yet. As it stands, Konnor Griffin is the closest. Formerly a member of the 2025 class, he was extremely old for a high school junior so he reclassified to the 2024 class so he could compete with peers his age. Standing 6'4", 205 pounds, he's already built like a grown man and has the ideal frame to tack on significant additional strength. He generates huge bat speed from the right side to produce above average power at present, and it will almost certainly grow into plus as he matures. His hit tool is a bit less consistent, as the swing can get long at times, but he takes good at bats and he has been making more and more contact as he's settled in against strong competition on the showcase circuit. Meanwhile, Griffin is an athletic beast with plus speed and a plus arm that play well in the outfield, giving him a shot to be an above average center fielder down the line. There are some similarities Benny Montgomery and Zac Veen here, though he's more polished than the former and quicker and more athletic (and more right handed) than the latter. Between his youth, projection, and ability to stick up the middle, Griffin checks a lot of boxes the Guardians look for, though they do prefer hit-over-power to power-over-hit.
What he needs to do: The only thing Griffin is missing in his profile is a consistent hit tool, so if he can come out showing less in-zone swing and miss while continuing to tap his power in games, he should absolutely be in contention for the first overall pick.

SS Caleb Bonemer, Okemos HS [MI]. My rank: #15.
I'll slip Caleb Bonemer in as the dark horse candidate. Generally considered more of a mid to back of the first round talent at this point, Bonemer likely wouldn't be under consideration for Cleveland if the draft was today, but he has a chance to hit his way there this spring a la Jackson Holliday. In fact, Bonemer is already trending hard in the right direction. Not widely known to national audiences at this time last year, he was one of the top performers on the summer showcase circuit, especially later on once he got settled in. Not huge at six feet tall, he can whip the barrel through the zone with the best of them for above average power and he should grow into plus power as he fills out. The Lansing-area native also makes plenty of contact in the zone, especially for a cold weather bat, though there are holes in his approach that were exposed a bit by advanced pitching. Still, he's getting better and better in that regard and it's the belief of most scouts that he just needs more exposure. Meanwhile, the Guardians will love his potential to stick up the middle. He's a plus runner with the athleticism and arm strength to stick at shortstop, though if he slows down at all he may be forced to third base, especially in a Cleveland system that always seems to be flush with shortstops. The upside here is that of a 25 home run, moderate on-base bat that can stick at shortstop and swipe a few bags in the process.
What he needs to do: Bonemer is farther away from the 1-1 slot than the other nine names on this list. He won't face extremely high level competition in central Michigan, but if he continues to grow into his power while controlling the strike zone a bit better, Jackson Holliday provides a nice blueprint for his ascent. Holliday was a more advanced hitter at this stage, but Bonemer is more physical and both play off the beaten path a little (Holliday played in Stillwater, Oklahoma).

Other options
RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa (#8)
OF Mike Sirota, Northeastern (#11)
OF Charlie Condon, Georgia (#12)
OF Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M (#14)
OF Slade Caldwell, Valley View HS [AR] (#17)

The Top 12 High School Pitching Prospects Headed to Campus

Earlier, we looked at the top position players reaching campus, so now we'll pivot to the pitchers. The pitchers on last year's list haven't quite made the immediate impact of last year's position players, but sometimes it takes them longer to get acclimated to the higher level. After picking up two of the top nine position player prospects in Cody Schrier and Malakhi Knight, UCLA is back with two of the top three pitching prospects to really hammer home a fantastic recruiting class. Because #10 James Peyton Smith switched up and will go the JuCo route, this list is a bit unusual in that there are no Florida Gators or LSU Tigers and only one Vanderbilt Commodore, the latter not showing up until the last spot on the list (though Florida did pick up three in the "just missed" group and LSU got one). 

1. LHP Gage Jump, UCLA (JSerra Catholic HS, CA). 2021 rank: #20.
Gage Jump is the top overall prospect to reach campus, edging out #25 Peyton Stovall (Arkansas) on the position player side. Jump is a really, really interesting pitcher that has made himself a lot of fans on the West Coast and across the country despite being undersized. The 5'11" lefty has a low 90's fastball that has reached as high as 96, while bringing a deep curveball, a distinct slider, and a changeup. Everything plays up because despite his shorter stature, he gets exceptional extension for his size and puts big spin rates on his stuff, creating a ton of movement in the best way. That fastball sneaks up on hitters and regularly evades barrels up in the zone, while his curveball plays off it really well. He does a good job of pounding the strike zone and a little more refinement when it comes to repeating his delivery could give him above average command. Jump has been noted for his knowledge of the game and feel for pitching on top of everything else, which should help him jump into that UCLA rotation right away after it lost Nick Nastrini (Dodgers, fourth round), Jesse Bergin (Marlins, eleventh round), Sean Mullen (Rays, eleventh round), and Zach Pettway (Indians, sixteenth round) to the draft. Some have compared the Orange County product to a left handed Jack Leiter, as a shorter pitcher who uses his body extremely well and understands his craft. Look for Jump to try to work his way into the first round in 2024.

2. LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest (Reagan HS, NC). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Josh Hartle was among the first players to announce his intention to go to school rather than pro ball, while Wake Forest is getting exactly the kind of profile that could reemerge as an early first round pick in 2024. He's earned comps to Kyle Harrison, who signed above slot with the Giants in the third round last year, but he's seven months younger (relative to his class) and throws a bit harder at the same stage of his career. For that reason, had he been on my final rankings, he would have been just outside the first round range. Hartle sits in the low 90's and gets up to around 94, which isn't overwhelming velocity but plenty for now especially given his projection. He adds a sweepy slider with great depth that could become a plus pitch in time, though for now it lacks power and plays closer to average. He also has great feel for his changeup that rounds out his arsenal really nicely, and in turn gives him a chance for three plus pitches if all goes well at Wake Forest. The 6'5" lefty fills the strike zone consistently and repeats his low three quarters delivery well, but perhaps his best attribute is projection. With an ideal frame and an easy delivery, scouts are certain there is more velocity in the tank and he could legitimately add three to five miles per hour to his fastball in Winston-Salem as he gets stronger. Combine that with his stuff and strike throwing ability from the left side, and you have all of the ingredients for a future top ten pick, and in turn a future big league ace. Of course, he has to stay healthy, make those strength gains, and hold his command as they come in order to reach that ceiling, but I see no reason why he won't. The Winston-Salem native will be a priority follow for Carolina area scouts over the next few seasons and the Demon Deacons have likely found their heir to Ryan Cusick at the front of their rotation, if not in 2022 then likely by 2023.

3. RHP Thatcher Hurd, UCLA (Mira Costa HS, CA). 2021 rank: N/A (removed from rankings).
Like Josh Hartle, Thatcher Hurd removed himself from the draft well before the event got started and therefore was not in my final rankings, but he would have ranked in the second round range. Hurd shares a lot of similarities to both Hartle and fellow UCLA commit and #1 recruit Gage Jump, with exactly the kind of profile that goes to school and reemerges as an early first round pick. Relatively new to pitching, he sits around 90 right now and gets up to around 93-94 consistently, but like Hartle, there is a ton more in the tank. His slider and curveball are two unique breaking balls that are still works in progress, but the slider regularly looks like an above average pitch already while the curveball looks like it should become at least an average offering. The changeup is a bit behind, but he does show feel for it. Everything plays up because the Oakland-area native (who transferred to the Los Angeles area for his senior year) mirrors Jump a bit in that he gets high spin rates on everything that put ride on his fastball and more movement on his breaking balls. He pounds the strike zone very well for someone who is new to pitching, and while he can be a little bit rushed in his delivery at times, it's clean overall and he repeats it well. Hurd stands out for his feel for pitching and work ethic as well, constantly looking for ways to improve his game and stand out in the crowded field of young pitchers looking for a shot. Add that onto the projection in his 6'4" frame, the freshness of his arm, and the development he'll get at UCLA, and you have a potential ace in the making. He's a bit behind Jump and slightly behind Hartle in present velocity, but he could catch up in no time. Look for Gage Jump and Thatcher Hurd to lead a new era of UCLA arms and try to replicate the Trevor Bauer/Gerrit Cole era.

4. RHP Caedmon Parker, Texas Christian (The Woodlands Christian HS, TX). 2021 rank: #69.
As with Josh Hartle and Thatcher Hurd, Caedmon Parker withdrew from the draft before it started, but by then he was already on my final rankings and remained at #69. Parker, like Hartle and Hurd, is a big time projection play who has a chance to become an absolute monster under pitching guru and new TCU head coach Kirk Saarloos. His fastball is currently inconsistent in its velocity, at times chilling in the upper 80's but at others reaching back for as much as 94-95. He adds an improving curveball in addition to a sweepy slider with great depth, and he shows good feel for a changeup as well. The 6'4" righty has an ideal frame to add velocity and shows a ton of athleticism on the mound, with a springy, low effort delivery that could use a little cleanup that Saarloos and co. are certainly up to the task on. While that delivery can be a little inconsistent at times, when he is repeating it well, he shows above average command that is especially nice to see given that he's split his focus with football up to this point. The Houston-area native is also relatively young for the class and didn't turn 18 until a month before the draft, which combined with his frame, athleticism, spin rates, and natural movements on the mound should enable him to continue trending up. Parker was one of my favorite arms in this class and I had him ranked well ahead of Prospects Live (#100), MLB Pipeline (#110), and Baseball America (#222), and I look forward to following his development in Fort Worth.

5. RHP Jackson Baumeister, Florida State (Bolles HS, FL). 2021 rank: #75.
Jackson Baumeister was trending up quickly this spring, but ultimately not quickly enough to be diverted away from a strong commitment to Florida State. Last year, the Seminoles picked up the top incoming freshman pitching prospect in the country in Carson Montgomery, who was more solid than spectacular in his debut this spring (4.50 ERA, 39/23 K/BB in 28 IP). While Montgomery stood out in part for his extreme youth, Baumeister is old for his class and is actually a couple weeks older than Montgomery despite being a grade behind. That means that he and Montgomery will both be eligible together for the 2023 draft, so he'll want to hit the ground running in Tallahassee. The good news is that Baumeister is absolutely up to the task, bringing a combination of "now" stuff and projection comparable to anybody in the class. His fastball is consistently in the low 90's now and is getting up to around 95, while his curveball shows both sharpness and depth and looks like a true plus pitch when he rips through it right. He mainly works off of those two pitches and will need to gain more feel for his changeup and perhaps get a bit more consistent with that curveball, which can be slurvy at times, but it's a really exciting package nonetheless. The 6'3" righty is a great athlete and gets down the mound extremely well, releasing the ball out in front and making his pitches jump on hitters. While the command is relatively inconsistent at this point, it has been trending in the right direction and some refinement under the Florida State coaching staff should help him get to average in that regard. If he can make incremental adjustments here and there, we've got another potential first rounder on our hands who could be truly electric when all is said and done. The Jacksonville native had a ton of fans in the 2021 draft who saw him as a clear-cut top two rounds arm already, and now he has two years to build on that.

6. RHP Chase Burns, Tennessee (Beech HS, TN). 2021 rank: #84.
Chase Burns was one of the more polarizing prospects in the 2021 class, with many believing he belonged firmly in the top two rounds (both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked him in the top fifty) and others seeing a boom or bust profile that fit better in the third or fourth round. I fell into the latter bucket, but regardless the Volunteers are getting one of the single most electric arms in the entire class. Burns has an elite fastball that sits consistently in the mid 90's has reached 101, playing up even further with spin rates and riding action that make it near impossible to square up. At his best, his curveball has vicious bite while his shorter slider darts away from bats late, but both are inconsistent and can flatten out regularly. He's shown the makings of a decent changeup but hasn't shown his best version of that pitch consistently yet. The 6'4" righty has done a very good job of improving his delivery and can fill up the strike zone when he's on, though his actions remain a little bit rigid for my taste and he does throw with effort, losing his arm slot at times. Hard throwing preps have had a poor track record as of late, and because he gets to his velocity more through brute force than natural extension and kinetic chain, I see considerable reliever risk here. My guess is he'll likely spend his freshman season as a reliever in Knoxville, but the Nashville-area product has a chance to prove his proponents right and his doubters wrong by sticking in the weekend rotation over a full season if not in 2022 then in 2023 and 2024. If not, the power stuff should be absolutely wicked out of a big league bullpen.

7. LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas (Bullard HS, TX). 2021 rank: #100.
Arkansas brought in the top incoming position player prospect in the country in Peyton Stovall, and between him and Hagen Smith, the Razorbacks now have the two most dominant performers in recent memory from the Piney Woods/Ark-La-Tex region. While Stovall went on a home run barrage that seemingly lasted all season against northern Louisiana pitching, Smith threw no-hitter after no-hitter against his East Texas competition and now they'll be teaming up in Fayetteville. Smith is a really interesting arm with a fastball around 90 that can get up to around 95, showing nice arm side run from a lower arm slot. He complements that well with an above average slider that flashes plus, and also gets some drop on a decent changeup. There is some Brusdar Graterol in the profile, with most of his power coming from heavy torso rotation rather than a traditional drop and drive motion. The Arkansas coaching staff will want to smooth him out a little bit and make sure he really is getting everything he can out of his 6'3" frame, with more velocity very likely on the way as he fills out and crisps up that delivery. The Bullard, Texas native is extremely young for the class, more than a year younger than Jackson Baumeister, and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft, so he has additional time to develop. Combine that with the fact that he's coming from off the prospect map in small town East Texas, and you have a recipe for rapid improvements in Fayetteville.

8. RHP/WR Brody Brecht, Iowa (Ankeny HS, IA). 2021 rank: #111.
Brody Brecht is probably the most athletic person on this list, and it's not particularly close. He's a star football player that will be playing wide receiver at Iowa, then he ran track over the winter and into the spring and got a late start to baseball because of it. Then, at least so it seems, he just stepped on the mound and started hitting the upper 90's like it's nothing, so we're talking premium natural talent. Brecht was always going to be a tough sign because he loves football and has no plans to give it up any time soon, so we'll just have to see how it goes at Iowa. Currently, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched as high as 98, and it's really, really easy to envision more if he ever gives baseball his full attention. His slider looks like an absolute weapon at its best and he also shows good feel to spin a curveball, though for now the changeup is virtually non-existent. The 6'4" righty repeats his delivery well and stays around the zone with his stuff, so additional focus on pitching should help him get to above average command. We are talking about a huge ceiling for Brecht, with the potential to become the Big Ten's best arm since Max Meyer. For now though, we have a long way to go and we still don't have his full attention. That level of natural talent is just unbelievable.

9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Stanford (Madison Central HS, MS). 2021 rank: #71.
Braden Montgomery's #71 ranking is actually as a position player, where he's a switch hitter with strong feel for the barrel and some power projection. Most don't think he has quite as much impact potential as a pitcher, but he has a chance to prove them wrong with additional development at Stanford. The Jackson-area native will head a long way from Mississippi to Silicon Valley for school, where he'll simultaneously look to break into the outfield and the weekend rotation. On the mound, Montgomery shows a low 90's fastball that can get up to about 95, adding a very solid curveball and changeup that give him a great three pitch starting point. He's very poised on the mound and fills up the strike zone consistently, with an athletic, low effort delivery that could use some minor smoothing out on the arm path but which is otherwise pretty clean. He's been noted as a hard worker who really cares about his craft, so if anybody can manage the workload of developing as a pro prospect as both a hitter and a pitcher, it's him. A few years ago, we saw another BM, Brendan McKay, develop into a monster on both sides of the ball at Louisville. Montgomery probably won't match both his 2.23 career ERA and .966 career OPS, but he could be the best two-way star since McKay.

10. RHP James Peyton Smith, Northwest Florida State JC (East Robertson HS, TN). 2021 rank: #122.
James Peyton Smith was originally committed to Vanderbilt, but switched his commitment to Northwest Florida State in July so he could be eligible for the 2022 draft. Smith has seen his game grow and change over the past few years, and while Vanderbilt would have been a great place to hone his craft and put it all together, he may not have gotten as many innings as he might have liked and of course would have to wait until 2024 to get drafted. At Northwest Florida State, he'll have a much easier time finding innings and if he can put it together this spring, he could be the first JuCo pitcher drafted. The Middle Tennessee native has recently seen his fastball tick up into the mid 90's, reaching as high as 98 at his best from a low three quarters arm slot. His slider is an above average pitch at its best, while his curveball is a step behind. Smith shows great feel for his changeup, which will hold down the fort while he works on the consistency of his breaking balls. The 6'4" righty hasn't quite shown consistent feel to spot his newfound, loud stuff, though he has been a good strikethrower in the past and may just need more time to get used to the mid 90's bullets coming from his right arm. It does take some effort for him to tap that big stuff, leading to reliever risk, and he'll look to the coaching staff in Niceville to help smooth that out a bit. Regardless, I expect him to carve up Florda JuCo hitters next spring and rank among the national leaders in strikeouts at that level. If he doesn't quite get things where he wants by the 2022 draft, he can always go back for another year or transfer to another Division I program. With a June birthday, he's also relatively young for his class.

11. RHP Eric Hammond, Southern California (Keller HS, TX). 2021 rank: #130.
UCLA is bringing in the best recruiting class in the country, but their cross town rivals did land Eric Hammond, who has a chance to be a first rounder in 2024. Hammond, a Texan with strong familial ties to California, already sits in the low 90's and can get up to 95-96 with plenty more projection in the tank. He also throws a slider, curve, and changeup, all of which are trending upwards and flash above average and should give him a complete arsenal to use in Los Angeles. He's generally around the zone, though command is going to be a focus point in his development over the next few years. The Dallas-Fort Worth product has a very slow, deliberate start to his delivery, but rushes through his arm stroke and finish which can affect his ability to repeat his release point. Cleaning that up is likely all that stands between Hammond and starting in pro ball. The 6'4" righty offers a ton of projection and should continue to add power to his stuff, and he has a chance to be one of the best pitchers on the West Coast over the next few seasons if he develops like he's expected to. USC missed out on Marcelo Mayer, who in my opinion was the best high schooler in the entire draft class by a fair margin, but should still be happy that they landed their future Friday night starter.

12. LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt (Benedictine Military HS, GA). 2021 rank: #135.
Ask any hitter on the showcase circuit last year, and they'll tell you Carter Holton was one of the toughest at bats they had. He'll head to Vanderbilt with one less arm to compete with now that James Peyton Smith is going the JuCo route, but no matter what the situation is in Nashville, it's always tough to find innings on that staff. Holton should be up for the task rather quickly as he shows strong feel for pitching and shouldn't have too steep of a transition to facing SEC lineups, though he still should get better and better during his time there. For now, he sits in the low 90's but can get up to 96 with his fastball, adding a sweepy curve and slider that can blend into each other and a very solid changeup that plays well off the rest of his arsenal. He comes in with some crossfire action that puts tough angle on the ball and adds perceived sweep to his breaking balls, but still fills up the strike zone more often than not. 5'11" lefty lacks projection and probably won't add a ton more velocity, but as Tim Corbin and co. help him get a bit more consistent in repeating his delivery and perhaps tighten up his breaking balls a bit, we could have a Friday night man by 2024, which is no small task at Vanderbilt. He mixes his pitches extremely well and improving his command from average to above average, which I see as highly likely, will make him exactly the kind of pitcher that carves up SEC lineups as if he's still in high school. The Savannah native's size probably makes it less likely he emerges as a first round pick, but he has a very good shot at working his way into the second round range.

Others:
#141 RHP Brandon Neely, Florida (Spruce Creek HS, FL)
#157 RHP Cale Lansville, Louisiana State (Thunder Ridge HS, CO)
#164 LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida (Plant HS, FL)
#171 RHP Will Koger, Louisville (Bardstown HS, KY)
#178 RHP Max Debiec, Washington (O'Dea Catholic HS, WA)
#182 RHP Luke Holman, Alabama (Wilson HS, PA)
#187 LHP Pierce Coppola, Florida (Verona HS, NJ)
#190 RHP Roman Kimball, Notre Dame (P27 Academy, SC)

2021 MLB Draft Review: San Diego Padres

Full list of draftees

The Padres stayed on brand with this draft, picking up two high school position players (both Maryland natives) with their first two picks. Some around the industry are a bit surprised by this draft, with first rounder Jackson Merrill being a bit of an unknown and second rounder James Wood (who earned $800K more) coming off a rough spring. Indeed, it will probably be boom or bust between these two kids, who could make AJ Preller look either really smart or foolhardy in a few years. After spending $4.4 million on those two kids, the Padres moved to the college ranks to save some money, picking up three consecutive pitchers who are already 22 or older, and really leaning on college players the rest of the way out. Kevin Kopps is of course the most interesting pick as the 24 year old Golden Spikes winner, while my favorite could end up being Ryan Bergert if he comes back healthy from Tommy John surgery.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-27: SS Jackson Merrill, Severna Park HS [MD]. My rank: #72.
This pick surprised many outside the industry, as Jackson Merrill was ranked #79 on MLB Pipeline and #102 on Baseball America. He was ranked #72 on my board and this will be a money saving pick, but don't think this was a reach. Merrill was a true pop-up prospect this spring, coming out for his senior season with a changed body and the results followed and then some. In addition to hitting for significantly more power than he has in the past, the Annapolis-area product also hit everything in sight, getting really nice leverage and loft from his now-6'2" frame and getting to that power consistently. He projects to stay on the right side of the infield with a strong arm, and given that the Padres are drafting him here in the first round, they probably think he'll be at least an average defender at shortstop. That remains to be seen, as does his ability to hit against higher-level pitching, as his bat is pretty untested against advanced competition. Merrill is committed to Kentucky but signed for $1.8 million, which was about $770,000 below the slot value of $2.57 million and about the value of the 41st pick.

2-62: OF James Wood, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #36.
I don't think I realized how tough of a spring James Wood had until after the draft, hence the high ranking. Wood, like Merrill, is from Maryland, but he transferred down to the IMG Academy in Florida to build his draft stock, which ultimately did not happen this spring. At his best over the summer, the 6'6" slugger showed massive raw power from the left side of the plate to go along with a patient approach that earned him comparisons to Zac Veen from last year's class. In fact, heading into the spring, many thought he had a chance to be drafted in the same range (Veen went ninth overall to the Rockies). The power was still there this spring, but Wood swung and missed significantly more often than scouts wanted to see, raising questions as to whether he could tap his power against pro pitching. He's a big guy with long legs and long arms and he starts with his hands low, something which wasn't an issue over the summer but could have contributed to making things difficult in 2021. Wood tweaked his setup at times as well, but to no avail. The Padres are buying into his massive upside here in the second round, and his presently above average speed also gives him an additional way to impact the game. He signed for $2.6 million, which was more than double the slot value of $1.1 million and in fact more than what Merrill signed for. $2.6 million would be roughly slot value for the 27th pick.

CBB-71: LHP Robert Gasser, Houston. My rank: #81.
Robert Gasser has had a meteoric rise to stardom after a winding road to get there. A Sacramento-area native, he began his career at New Mexico, moved on to Delta College back in California, then to the University of Houston, where he got knocked around in brief action in 2020. Things were different right from the start in 2021, however, after he followed strong starts against Texas Southern and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi to match Tigers comp pick and Longhorn ace Ty Madden pitch for pitch in his third start. By the end of the season, Gasser had a 2.63 ERA and a strong 105/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.2 innings, including double digit strikeout performances against Texas State, Oklahoma, Memphis, and Tulane. He's a 6'1" lefty with a fastball that has ticked into the low 90's, touching 96, working in an above average slider that dives across the plate and a fading changeup. Gasser doesn't have pinpoint command but he locates his pitches well to both sides of the plate, and his low arm slot and crossfire action put some deception on his pitches. It's not the world's highest ceiling, but he has a chance to work his way up as a back-end starter, with a fallback option as a left handed reliever that can combine power stuff with a little bit of funk. Despite already having turned 22, he signed for full slot value at $884,200.

3-99: RHP Kevin Kopps, Arkansas. My rank: #188.
If you follow college baseball, you know all about Kevin Kopps. If you don't then you have a lot to catch up on. Kopps, like Gasser, has taken a long road to stardom, redshirting his freshman year in 2016 before serving as a solid if unspectacular reliever for Arkansas during his middle seasons (3.24 ERA, 86/30 K/BB in 86 IP). Those numbers were sandwiched around Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2018 season, then Kopps struggled to an 8.18 ERA in the shortened 2020 season. Returning in 2021 for his redshirt-redshirt senior season, the switch flipped on. The Houston-area native went 12-1 with a 0.90 ERA and a 131/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 89.2 innings, running a strikeout rate near 40% against some of the best competition in college baseball. Despite often throwing three or four innings per relief appearance, he didn't allow more than one run in any single game until his last one of the season, in which he made his very first start of the season against a red hot NC State team on short rest and allowed three over eight innings in what ended up being Arkansas' final game. The 2021 Golden Spikes winner harkens back to Mariano Rivera a bit with his tendency to work off one pitch – a cutter/slider hybrid that can move along the spectrum. Kopps has legitimate 80 grade feel for the pitch, showing the ability to tighten it up, allow it to break with more depth at other times, and locating it with precision to all four quadrants of the zone. Flip on any one of his appearances this season and you would see very disciplined SEC hitters flailing at it, rarely putting good swings on the pitch. The 6' righty also shows a low 90's fastball that functions as average and a below average curve and changeup, but the cutter/slider is his bread and butter. Despite throwing seventeen innings in just two weeks during the NCAA Tournament (and allowing just three runs while striking out nineteen), Kopps almost certainly profiles as a reliever in pro ball due to his lack of a second above average pitch, but he says he prefers the "chaos" of relief work anyways as opposed to getting into a routine as a starter. Already 24 years old, he was the second oldest player taken in the entire draft behind White Sox seventh rounder Theo Denlinger (25), but he likely won't pitch in the majors this year due to his heavy workload in Fayetteville. Once the Padres get him rested up and on their throwing program, though, he could be up pretty quickly in 2022. Slot value is $587,400, but I doubt his bonus will come close to that.

4-129: LHP Jackson Wolf, West Virginia. Unranked.
Another pick, another senior sign. Jackson Wolf, unlike Gasser or Kopps, was a well-known name for the 2020 class after posting a 1.05 ERA and a 27/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 25.2 innings in the shortened season, but he went undrafted and returned to Morgantown. This year, he did everything that was expected of him, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 104/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 innings, but it wasn't quite an Andrew Abbott-esque or Matt Mikulski-esque performance to increase his stock significantly. He's a 6'7" lefty, which will immediately grab your attention, and he fills up the strike zone with three pitches. Wolf's fastball sits around 90, a slight tick above where it was last year, and can scrape the mid 90's at its best, but it plays up due to his excellent extension that really does make a difference. His slider is slurvy and his changeup is average at best, but the three pitches work well off each other and he's proven durable so far. He throws strikes, but it's not pinpoint command – just enough to make it all work. If the Columbus-area native is to remain a starter, he'll need to tighten up his offspeed pitches, but he more likely profiles as a reliever who can run that fastball up another tick or two and hopefully sharpen that slider. Slot value is $438,700, but I don't think he gets close to that.

5-160: 2B Max Ferguson, Tennessee. My rank: #179.
It was a tough season for Max Ferguson. A high school classmate of Alabama and now Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (a year older), in addition to Florida star and likely high 2022 pick Hunter Barco (a year younger), he had an unremarkable freshman season but slashed .333/.462/.524 in the shortened 2020 season, leading to some optimism that he could be a high pick in 2021. Instead, the Jacksonville native ended up at .253/.378/.461 with twelve home runs and a 71/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games with a hitter-friendly home park, albeit against a tough SEC schedule. So what happened? Ferguson is a skinny kid at a listed 6'1", 180 pounds, and in that strong 2020 season he was noted as a strong contact hitter who might not hit for much impact in pro ball. So in 2021, he tried to show that impact by yanking home runs to the pull side and lifting the ball, and it worked to a degree with a strong .208 ISO (SLG - AVG), but it also came with an elevated 22.8% strikeout rate (up from 15% over his first two seasons). For a hitter who didn't quite sell the power, that's a tough look, and he'll likely need to go back to being hit over power in pro ball if he wants to succeed. The good news is Ferguson is a great athlete who shows strong bat to ball skills and barrel control when he's not trying to do too much, and with proper development he should be able to work his way back towards being a high on-base guy who can steal you a few bags (he has 28 in 114 career games at Tennessee). He fits at second base due to a below average arm, but could have the speed to handle center field. To me, it's a utility profile. He signed for full slot value at $324,100.

6-190: RHP Ryan Bergert, West Virginia. Unranked.
Four players were drafted out of West Virginia this year, and all four were pitchers going to NL West rivals – I didn't mention them in the Dodgers writeup, but Madison Jeffrey and Adam Tulloch went in the 15th and 17th rounds, respectively, to Los Angeles, while San Diego grabbed Jackson Wolf in the fourth and Ryan Bergert here in the sixth. I tabbed Bergert as a sleeper heading into the season, but unfortunately, he blew out his elbow and didn't pitch at all. Over his first two years in Morgantown, though, he was phenomenal – 2.30 ERA, 68/19 K/BB in 58.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's, getting up to 94-95 at best, and playing up due to high spin rates. He also shows an inconsistent curveball that doesn't always have the finish he would like, but which should be an above average pitch with a bit more development, as well as an average slider. The 6'1" righty doesn't have much of a changeup this point, which will be a point of development in pro ball, and his command is average. He'll have to work his way back first, but once healthy, some tweaks here and there could make him a very solid rotation option. It's always hard to peg injured pitchers' signing bonus demands, and slot value sits at $251,100 here.

18-550: LHP Gage Jump, JSerra Catholic HS [CA]. My rank: #20.
With James Wood signing for $1.5 million above slot value, it's hard to see Gage Jump signing here, especially when he seemed dead set on heading to UCLA anyways. Jump, in my opinion, was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only Jackson Jobe, who went third overall to the Tigers. He's an undersized lefty at 5'11", sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and getting up to 94-95. That fastball plays way up because he gets great extension, a low release, and high spin rates from that smaller frame, putting exceptional ride on the ball and missing plenty of bats. His top to bottom curveball plays extremely well off his fastball, and he adds an above average slider as well. Jump is a competitor that fills up the strike zone consistently, earning comps to a left handed Jack Leiter, and he could find himself in a similar position after three years in Westwood. He attended high school not far from San Diego, just an hour or so north of PETCO in San Juan Capistrano.

20-610: RHP Chase Burns, Beech HS [TN]. My rank: #84.
This is another one that almost certainly won't sign. Chase Burns is one of the hardest throwers in the prep class, touching triple digits with his fastball and usually sitting in the mid 90's, and it gets exceptional spin and ride (like Jump, but faster) that make it a plus-plus pitch when it's located. Burns also adds an inconsistent curve that flashes plus 12-6 movement at its best, and his slider is a bit shorter but flashes plus as well with late bite. His changeup is inconsistent as well, but has its moments. The problem here is that his delivery is somewhat rigid, which combined with the poor history of hard throwing high schoolers, makes it a very scary profile. I would like to see the Nashville-area native head to Tennessee, which it looks like is going to happen, to prove his durability as a starting pitcher before jumping on board. If he does hold up over three years in Knoxville, we're looking at a huge ceiling for the 6'4" righty.