It's not a particularly strong system, but I'd go ahead and say the strength of this system lies in the infield, where Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty make up the core of the Mets' future offense. Behind the plate, though, I think 18 year old Francisco Alvarez is absolutely legit. In fact, I think he's at a minimum the fourth best catching prospect in all of baseball, and you could argue him as high as #2 behind only Adley Rutschman. Beyond that, the system is pretty thin in the outfield, and they have a solid if unspectacular group of pitching prospects. I think the organization's strength has been in the international market, where they have found several of their best prospects on the offensive side including Gimenez, Mauricio, Alvarez, Freddy Valdez, and Shervyen Newton.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Mets, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, short season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
Catcher
- Ali Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Always known for his glove, Sanchez put himself on the map by slashing .265/.294/.387 in A ball in 2018, which isn't anything much but it's enough to get noticed when you're a glove-first catcher. He then hit .278/.337/.337 with one home run and a 52/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games at AA Binghamton in 2019, then struggled to a .179/.277/.250 mark and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games after a promotion to AAA Syracuse. Sanchez is known exclusively for his glove, as he's one of the minors' best defensive catchers, and that alone will get him to the majors. On the other side, he hits for virtually no impact, with his one saving grace at the plate being that he manages the strike zone well and avoids strikeouts. Sanchez will never be a starting catcher, but with his glove and ability to at least put the ball in play regularly, he could have a long career as a backup.
- Francisco Alvarez (2020 Age: 18): Alvarez signed for $2.7 million out Venezuela in 2018, and his loud first season might have already given him the title of the best teenage catcher in baseball. The Mets skipped him over the Dominican Summer League entirely and sent him straight to the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2019, an aggressive assignment for a 17 year old, and he responded by slashing .462/.548/.846 with a pair of home runs and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games. That caused the Mets to push him to rookie level Kingsport way ahead of schedule, and he still slashed .282/.377/.443 with five home runs and a 33/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games, where he was one of the youngest players above complex ball anywhere in the minors. He uses an explosive right handed swing to generate above average raw power despite a 5'11" frame, and his exceptional feel for the barrel helps him get to it consistently against older pitching. His defense needs work, but he'll play all of 2020 at 18 years old and there's no reason to think it won't improve. Do not sleep on this kid. He could hit 20+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages in the majors, i.e. a perennial All Star.
- Keep an eye on: Patrick Mazeika, Andres Regnault
Corner Infield
- Will Toffey (2020 Age: 25): Toffey's stock dropped considerably in 2019, but with the same thing happening to fellow upper minors corner infielders Michael Paez and David Thompson, he remains at least relevant in this system. Acquired from the A's in the Jeurys Familia trade in 2018, Toffey slashed .219/.347/.349 with five home runs and a 90/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Binghamton, and at this point I kind of doubt he'll hit for much impact at the major league level. He's known for his very good defense at third base, which could carry him to the majors, and his patient, mature approach at the plate is certainly a boon. He has some power to go with those on-base skills, though it's nothing special and he wasn't able to get to it often in AA, so at this point he's probably a bench bat.
- Mark Vientos (2020 Age: 20): Vientos was the Mets' second round pick in 2017 out of a South Florida high school, though because he was one of the youngest players in the entire draft, the Mets have brought him along slowly. He reached full season ball in 2019 and slashed .255/.300/.411 with 12 home runs and a 110/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Columbia, which might have dinged his stock a little bit but not too much. His strikeout rate jumped from 16.4% to 24.2% while his walk rate dropped from 14.1% to 4.8% as more advanced pitching exploited the holes in his approach, though he did manage to crack 27 doubles and 12 home runs, showing that he was still able to get to his power. He has an explosive swing from the right side and at 6'4", he has some additional natural power to grow into as he's set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old. He's a solid defender at third base, so the biggest thing for him in 2020 will be to get back to his approach at the plate and start hitting the pitches he wants to hit.
- Brett Baty (2020 Age: 20): Ironically, though Baty was the Mets' first round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2019, he's actually older than Vientos, who was a Mets high school draftee two years earlier. More on that in a second. Baty slashed .234/.368/.452 with seven home runs and a 65/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Kingsport, and at short season Brooklyn, though most of his time was spent at Kingsport. It was hard to get an accurate feel for his offensive upside in high school, because he was a year to a year and a half older than the typical high school senior, but he also put on an absolute show with his bat. He has a ton of raw power, that's not questioned, but there were questions as to whether his potentially above-average hit tool was actually above average. He struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances in his pro debut, so at this point I think we'd have to lower that grade to average or a tick below. 2020 will be more illuminating as he faces full season pitching, and if he acclimates well, he could hit 30+ home runs annually with good on-base percentages. It remains to be seen whether he sticks at third base, but the bat will still profile well at first base.
- Keep an eye on: Will Toffey, Michael Paez, Jaylen Palmer
Middle Infield
- Andres Gimenez (2020 Age: 21): The Mets seem to have a consistent pipeline of high level international shortstop prospects, as Amed Rosario is currently starting up in the big leagues while Andres Gimenez and Ronny Mauricio are coming up through the minors. Gimenez slashed .250/.309/.387 with nine home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 102/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at AA Bingamton, which was a bit of a step back from 2018 (.281/.347/.409) but still satisfactory given he was young for the level. He's tough to strike out and brings a good approach at the plate, and while he won't ever be a power hitter, he might be able to grow into moderate, double digit home run power if he starts to lift the ball a little more. He's also a good runner who plays great defense at shortstop, so it will be interesting to see how the Mets handle him and Rosario defensively, with one perhaps sliding to third base. In that case, it would be very tough to get the ball through the left side of their infield.
- Luis Carpio (2020 Age: 22-23): Carpio is another member of the fly ball revolution, as he hit a combined four home runs in his first five pro seasons before intentionally adding launch angle and hitting 12 in 2018. He didn't reach quite so high in 2019, but he still slashed .282/.361/.380 with four home runs and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. It was a nice season, because after seeing his strikeout rate rise a bit in 2018 as he tried to hit for more power, he brought it back down again in 2019 while still maintaining some impact. He still doesn't have a ton of pop and probably projects for 5-10 home runs annually in the majors, but he's tough to strike out and should be able to hit for contact and a little bit of extra base pop in the majors. That points to a career as a utility infielder, and his current best position is second base.
- Ronny Mauricio (2020 Age: 19): One of the most advanced 18 year olds in the minors, Mauricio played his first game in full season ball on his 18th birthday and slashed .268/.307/.357 with four home runs, six stolen bases, and a 99/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at Class A Columbia. As you would expect for a kid who had put in a full season in Class A by the time he was 18 and a half years old, Mauricio has extremely advanced feel for the game on both sides of the ball. There's little question whether he'll be able to hit for contact and get on base at the highest level, so the questions more revolve around his power. He's a skinny, projectable 6'3", and he did hit 20 doubles and five triples in 2019, but he also only hit four home runs. That's not necessarily a knock against him considering his age, and he did employ a ground ball-oriented approach that will probably need to be altered a bit, but it's enough to say it's not a given that he'll hit for more than average power. I do think adding both launch angle and strength could make him a perennial 20 homer/high on-base guy in the majors, which is certainly a valuable offensive profile. He's a good defender that should be skilled enough to stick at shortstop, but with the presence of Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez in the organization, third base may be his ultimate destination.
- Carlos Cortes (2020 Age: 22-23): Cortes is only listed at 5'7" but inch for inch, he's one of the better hitters in the system. He slashed .255/.336/.397 with 11 home runs and a 77/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A St. Lucie in 2019, very respectable numbers when you consider the pitcher-friendly context of the Florida State League. The South Carolina product has some solid power and it plays up because he controls the strike zone extremely well, enabling him to have a favorable offensive outlook where he could hit 15 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. However, most of that value is tied to his bat, as he's a mediocre fielder at second base, so his outlook might be more like a bench bat than a true starter, unless he takes another entirely possible step forward with the bat.
- Shervyen Newton (2020 Age: 21): Newton is frustrating as a prospect. He hit well in complex ball in 2017 (.311/.433/.444) and in rookie ball in 2018 (.280/.408/.449), and he showed both plenty of upside and some real flaws when I saw him play for Kingsport in 2018. His strong plate discipline as well as big time power potential were evident, but he also struggled with contact despite the aforementioned plate discipline. Those contact problems caught up to him in 2019, when he slashed .209/.283/.330 with nine home runs and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Columbia, though he did start to heat up some as the season went on. At 6'4", Newton has a lot of strength and a swing capable of producing above average power, though he hasn't demonstrated the ability to get to it consistently and may face an uphill battle in doing so. His ceiling remains high, but bust risk is rising. He is a good enough defender to play all over the infield and doesn't turn 21 until April, so he has a solid chance of becoming a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Luke Ritter, William Lugo
Outfield
- Tim Tebow (2020 Age: 32-33): I know we all desperately want him to reach the majors, but he hit just .163/.240/.255 with four home runs and a 98/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games at AAA Syracuse before going down with a hand injury in July. At this point it will probably take a daring PR stunt to get him to the majors and a complete, unexpected offensive breakout in order to stick for any period of time.
- Quinn Brodey (2020 Age: 24): In a system that's really lacking on upper-level outfielders, Stanford product and 2017 third rounder Quinn Brodey has done just enough to stand out. In 2019, he slashed .266/.323/.403 with ten home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 107/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton, showing fringy to average tools across the board. He makes consistent hard contact, and while he doesn't have a ton of raw power, he can drive the ball consistently and that should manifest into plenty of extra base hits and moderate home run pop. He also cut his strikeout rate a bit this year, and together that gives him an offensive profile of ten or so home runs annually with a decent on-base percentage and enough gap power to keep pitchers honest. He runs decently and can handle the outfield corners fairly well, giving him an overall fourth outfielder profile and the chance to get some regular starts against right handed pitching.
- Jake Mangum (2020 Age: 24): To be honest, I'm not sure that Mangum, who will begin his first full pro season at 24 years old, is going to be much more than a potential fourth/fifth outfielder. That said, you have to love this kid. He was a potential top five rounds pick as a draft-eligible sophomore at Mississippi State in 2017, but elected to return for his junior year. Afterwards, he stated he had unfinished business in Starkville and again turned down being a potential top five round pick in 2018, heading back for his senior season in 2019. Finally, after an illustrious career as potentially the most popular player in not only Mississippi State history, but in SEC baseball history as a whole, he finally accepted a fourth round selection to the Mets and slashed .247/.337/.297 with 17 stolen bases and a 26/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Brooklyn. Mangum is an 80 grade (top of the scale) leader with an 80 grade work ethic, one who plays his heart out on the field and leaves nothing in the tank. In an actual baseball sense, he doesn't have much to offer in the way of power, but he has great feel for the barrel and can spray line drives around the field with ease. Defensively, he's great all around in center field with his arm and range, and his speed helps him on both sides of the ball. His ceiling is limited due to the lack of power, but his work ethic should help his tools play up.
- Freddy Valdez (2020 Age: 18): Valdez signed for $1.45 million in 2018 and had a moderately successful first season, slashing .274/.367/.448 with six home runs, six stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games, mostly in the Dominican Summer League but with a few games in the Gulf Coast League. His carrying tool has been the natural pop in his 6'3" frame and leveraged swing, but he showed a patient enough approach this year to engender some confidence that he'll be able to get to that power at higher levels. Valdez is still very, very far off, but he'll play all of 2020 at 18 years old and he'll hopefully be able to refine his approach further to max that power.
- Keep an eye on: Desmond Lindsay, Wagner Lagrange, Antoine Duplantis, Scott Ota, Adrian Hernandez, Alexander Ramirez
Starting Pitching
- David Peterson (2020 Age: 24): With Anthony Kay gone to the Blue Jays, David Peterson becomes to the top pitching prospect in the Mets' upper minors. A first round pick out of Oregon in 2017, he posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 122/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings at AA Binghamton in 2019. Though he's 6'6", he doesn't actually throw that hard, scraping the low 90's with his fastball while relying more on his secondary stuff and command. His curveball is his out pitch, a big time downer that has missed bats consistently for him since college, while his changeup also elicits swings and misses and he adds a show-me slider to keep hitters honest. He also has arguably the best command in the system (a title he shares with Jordan Humphreys), which is especially important considering his fringy velocity, and it should enable him to become a #3 or a #4 starter if he can effectively mix his pitches at the next level and keep generating a lot of ground balls.
- Kevin Smith (2020 Age: 22-23): Like Peterson, Smith is a tall lefty, though Smith was a seventh round pick out of Georgia in 2018. He turned a lot of heads in 2019, when he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 130/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. He's become more of a complete pitcher since being drafted, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a good slider, and improving his changeup considerably. His solid command helped it all play up, though he'll probably have to take another step forward with either the stuff or the command if he wants to become a #4 or #5 big league starter. If not, he could be an effective left handed reliever with a touch more velocity.
- Harol Gonzalez (2020 Age: 25): Gonzalez, a previously unheralded prospect who managed to go 1-16 in 2018, had a huge breakout year in 2019 to put himself firmly on the map. This year, he posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 112/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at AA Binghamton and AAA Syracuse, perhaps most impressively holding a 2.68 ERA in the hitter-friendly AAA International League. He doesn't necessarily have swing and miss stuff, sitting a tick above 90 with his fastball and adding a solid bending curveball and a fading changeup, but he commands everything very well and that enabled his breakout. He was a bit homer-happy in 2019, allowing 20 on the year and eight in just 40.1 innings in AAA, which is proof that his unremarkable stuff doesn't give him much margin for error in his command. He probably profiles as a #5 starter or a long reliever, but he'll be ready in 2020.
- Thomas Szapucki (2020 Age: 23-24): Szapucki, the Mets' fifth round pick out of a South Florida high school in 2015, has shown tantalizing stuff when healthy but he's also never cracked 62 innings in a season. In 2019, making his return from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 72/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Class A Columbia, High A St. Lucie, and AA Binghamton. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a wicked curveball that's nearly impossible to square up. He also has a changeup that has looked good at times, but the injuries have slowed its development. The Mets handled him carefully in his return from surgery in 2019 and we'll have to see how they deploy him in 2020, but if he can manage to stay healthy for some long stretches of time, he could be a legitimate #2 or #3 starter. However, he has a lot of work to do and currently projects as more of a #3 or a #4 if he can stay moderately healthy, and a switch to the bullpen is not off the table. The lefty could be especially dominant there with his electric stuff.
- Franklyn Kilome (2020 Age: 24-25): Kilome was acquired from the Phillies for Asdrubal Cabrera in 2018, but he went down with Tommy John surgery seven starts into his Mets minor league career and missed the entire 2019 season. He's a 6'6" righty with a big, mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, though his changeup and command have been inconsistent and it has caused his stuff to play down somewhat. The Mets' hope was that a change of scenery might do him good, and it still may once he comes back hopefully healthy in 2020. More likely, though, is that he shifts to the bullpen and hopefully takes a step forward with his stuff.
- Tony Dibrell (2020 Age: 24): Dibrell, the Mets' fourth round pick out of Kennesaw State in 2017, has moved relatively slowly for an early-round college pitcher, spending his first full season entirely in Class A. He started 2019 at High A St. Lucie, where he was dominant in posting a 2.39 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 76/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings. However, he was not nearly as effective after a promotion to AA Binghamton, where opposing hitters punished his mistakes and he posted a 9.31 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, and a 37/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings. He comes at you with a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, all of which can be effective, though he has been a bit inconsistent with his command. Dibrell gets some added deception due to a late hop in his delivery just before he releases the ball, and if he wants to be a major league starter, he probably a) needs to sharpen one of his offspeed pitches into a true out pitch or b) improve his command a tick.
- Jordan Humphreys (2020 Age: 23-24): Humphreys, an 18th round pick out of high school in the small town of Crystal River, Florida in 2015, put up a 1.79 ERA in A ball in 2017 before going down with Tommy John surgery in 2018, which wiped out his entire season and all but two innings of his 2019 season. It's been a while since we saw the 6'2" right hander pitch in the minors, but we do know the general scouting report. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which particularly stand out as out pitches. However, he has some of the best command in the system (sharing the title with David Peterson), and that makes his stuff play way up. Peterson has the leg up with a plus curveball, but if he can stay healthy, Humphreys has a very good shot to work his way up as a #4 or #5 starter.
- Matthew Allan (2020 Age: 19): Allan may have gone in the third round out of an Orlando-area high school in 2019, but he signed for first round money and there's no doubt he's a first round talent. To be honest, I think he was the best high school pitcher in his class and it wasn't particularly close. Allan sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds two above average secondaries in a curveball and a changeup, both of which have the potential to be plus pitches. His command is fairly advanced for a high school pitcher as well and at 6'3", he has some projection remaining, giving him a great combination of both floor and ceiling for the notably volatile demographic of high school pitcher. If he can stay healthy, Allan has top of the rotation potential and honestly a pretty safe chance to at least be a back-end starter. Assuming health, he should move quickly for a high school pitcher. In his pro debut, he had a 2.61 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Brooklyn.
- Josh Wolf (2020 Age: 19): Wolf was selected a around earlier than Allan, in the second round out of a Houston high school in 2019, though he signed for a few hundred thousand dollars less ($2.5 million to $2.15 million). He's a very skinny 6'3" with some room to add good weight, though his frame is a bit slight and I'm not sure how much he can add. He is, on the other hand, clearly trending in the right direction, as his stuff improved his senior year and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a very good curveball and an improving changeup. His command is inconsistent this point due to the fact that he can occasionally lose his arm slot, but pro refinement should make that a fairly easy fix and he should have above average command in time, giving him a ceiling as a #2 or a #3 starter and a moderately high floor, of course assuming health. In his pro debut, he had a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings in the Gulf Coast League.
- Junior Santos (2020 Age: 18): Santos is 6'8", so before we go any further, there's that. In 2019, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 36/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings at rookie level Kingsport, mediocre numbers on the surface until you realize he was 17 years old for eleven of his fourteen starts. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and should be able to add more velocity, and his secondary pitches are raw but that's expected for a kid his age. He also manages the strike zone very well for a young teenager, so don't let the 25 walks in 40.1 innings fool you. Santos has a ton of upside but also a very low floor, and he could really turn out to be anything so there's no use in projecting him. Instead, he's just one to track.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Gonsalves, Luc Rennie, Christian James, Nathan Jones
Relief Pitching
- Ryley Gilliam (2020 age: 23-24): Fastball/curveball/mediocre command -> go. That's what makes a big league reliever, right? Gilliam is only 5'10", but he can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and adds a great power curveball, and he's carried those two weapons with him up to the top of the minors. He was drafted in the fifth round out of Clemson in 2018, then posted a 6.05 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 56/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings at High A St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Syracuse in 2019, though his numbers were hurt by that run in AAA. Still, his stuff was enough to completely overwhelm High A hitters and he held his own in AA a year out of college, so with a little more seasoning, he has a good chance to crack the Mets bullpen at some point in 2020. The command is mediocre, but the stuff is good enough to work in short stints if he can just figure out how to pitch around that mediocre command (though improving it up to near-average would be helpful).
- Dedniel Nunez (2020 Age: 23-24): Most top Dominican prospects sign when they're 16 or 17, but Nunez but didn't get the chance until he was 20 years old. After a couple of unremarkable seasons to begin his career, he broke out in 2019 with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 94/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie, officially putting himself on the map as an arm to watch. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a rapidly improving curveball, and while he lacks much of a changeup, his command is strong enough to make his stuff play up a bit. He still has an outside chance at starting if he can get that changeup up to average and maybe improve his command just a tick, but he's set to turn 24 in June and the best path forward might be to jump to the bullpen and allow his fastball/curveball combination to play up.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Villines, Joe Cavallaro, Jared Biddy
Showing posts with label David Peterson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label David Peterson. Show all posts
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Saturday, December 8, 2018
Reviewing the New York Mets Farm System
I was planning on writing up the Mets soon anyways, but after they sent Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn over to the Mariners, they have the thinnest system of the ones remaining to be written up. Without those two big names near the top of the list, the talent in this system is mostly concentrated near the bottom of the minors, especially with quite a few interesting hitters coming through Kingsport in the Appalachian League. There is not much upside in this system, with most players looking more like marginal/role players than potential stars. There are a few pitchers up at the top of the list, but most of the system is led by hitters.
Affiliates: AAA Las Vegas 51's*, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, Short Season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
*AAA affiliate will move from Las Vegas, NV to Syracuse, NY in 2019
The Headliners: 1B Peter Alonso and SS Andres Gimenez
There are no truly elite prospects in the Mets' system, though 24 year old Peter Alonso and 20 year old Andres Gimenez mark the clear two best prospects with Jarred Kelenic's trade to Seattle. Alonso had a huge year in the upper minors this year, slashing .285/.395/.579 with 36 home runs and a 128/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games about evenly split between AA Binghamton and hitter-friendly AAA Las Vegas. He has a ton of power and draws a ton of walks, with his only question on offense being his ability to make contact. He is limited to first base defensively, but his bat is good enough to profile there and he could be a 30 homer, .350 on-base percentage bat at his best. He's an early candidate for 2019 NL Rookie of the Year, though of course that is contingent on his ability to make contact at the highest level. Gimenez is a very different kind of prospect, showing more contact and defense than power. The slick fielding shortstop slashed .281/.347/.409 with six home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton this year. He's a very advanced hitter for his age, making ready contact and using his speed to make things happen, though he's unlikely to ever develop much power and his offensive value will be largely dependent on his batting average. He could be a leadoff hitter as a best case scenario, but he'll need to start walking more in order to end up more than a bottom of the order hitter, though his defense should help him start so long as he hits like he should.
The Pitchers: LHP David Peterson, RHP Franklyn Kilome, LHP Anthony Kay, LHP Thomas Szapucki, RHP Jordan Humphreys, and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson
There's really not much pitching depth at all in this system, especially with Justin Dunn gone to Seattle, with a small chance overall of getting a single impact pitcher out of the group of current prospects. Arguably the pitcher with the best shot of separating himself from the pack is 23 year old David Peterson, a 6'6" lefty, had a good first full season in pro ball by posting a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 115/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie. He was better at Columbia (1.82 ERA, 57/11 K/BB) than at St. Lucie (4.33 ERA, 58/19 K/BB), but his combination of stuff and command is unmatched in this system and he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. 23 year old Franklyn Kilome, who came over from Philadelphia in the Asdrubal Cabrera trade, is another 6'6" arm. The righty put up a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 125/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 innings at AA, a moderate step back from his 2018 numbers when the Phillies (and now the Mets) were hoping for a step forward. He throws in the upper 90's but with just a good curveball and a mediocre changeup and command, Kilome is running out of time to prove he can cut it as a starter. If his command doesn't step forward in 2019, he probably ends up a good reliever rather than a #3 starter. 23 year old Anthony Kay, a Long Island native, missed 2017 to Tommy John surgery, but returned in 2018 to make a successful pro debut. In 23 starts between Columbia and St. Lucie, he posted a 4.26 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 123/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings. Kay is smaller than Peterson and Kilome, standing at 6', but he's a lefty that commands his stuff fairly well, though his slider will need to improve if he wants to start in the major leagues. Right now, the relief risk is high, though he does have a shot at being a back-end starter. 22 year olds Thomas Szapucki and Jordan Humphreys, who were born one day apart in June 1996 and who both grew up in Florida, both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. Both had been dominant statistically before their surgeries, though aside from both being 6'2", that's where the similarities end. Szapucki is a lefty with a power fastball/curveball combination who strikes opponents out in bunches but who also struggles with his command at times, while Humphreys is a righty gets by more on his exceptional feel for pitching. Naturally, Szapucki has a higher ceiling and could be a #2 or #3 starter if he tightens his command, while Humphreys has a better shot at cracking the majors as a back-end starter who gets by on command. Of course, the big thing in 2019 will be for both to stay healthy. Lastly, 18 year old Simeon Woods-Richardson was just drafted in the second round (48th overall) out of a Houston area high school, showing projectability with a solid 6'3" frame and a low 90's fastball to go with a good curveball and good enough command. He showed well in his small-sample pro debut, posting a 1.56 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings between complex ball and rookie level Kingsport, so the Mets hope that pro coaching can help him refine the edges of his game and make him into a potential impact prospect. Obviously, the risk is as high here as with any pitcher on this list.
Upper Level Hitters: OF Desmond Lindsay, 2B Luis Carpio, C Tomas Nido, 3B Will Toffey, 3B David Thompson, 3B Michael Paez, and OF Tim Tebow
When it comes to close-to-the-majors talent, the Mets really have nothing in terms of hitters after Peter Alonso and Andres Gimenez, with nobody projecting to be more than a back-up or utility man. 21 year old outfielder Desmond Lindsay may have some of the highest upside in this group, but he has struggled to put it together in the minors so far and slashed just .223/.317/.325 with three home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 96/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between High A St. Lucie and complex ball rehab work. He has good patience at the plate with some speed and feel for the barrel, but at the close of his fourth pro season, it looks like he'll never reach that ceiling. 2019 will be a big make or break season for him as a prospect. 21 year old Luis Carpio had a power breakout in 2018, slashing .219/.290/.364 with twelve home runs and an 81/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, all but one of which was at St. Lucie. I call that a power breakout because from 2014-2017, Carpio hit just four home runs total, so twelve in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is a different look. Otherwise, he has a pretty light bat that he makes up for with good infield defense, looking like a back-up second baseman at this point. 24 year old Tomas Nido has already played in the majors, catching 39 games over 2017 and 2018 and slashing .181/.210/.255 along the way. Spending the rest of the season mostly with AA Binghamton as well as a few games at AAA Las Vegas, he slashed .272/.300/.431 with five home runs and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing good contact and a bit of power not enough for him to be even the short term answer to the Mets' catching problems but enough to put him in the back-up conversation for 2019. 23 year old Will Toffey has a pretty average bat, but his great plate discipline and good glove make him a player to watch. In 2018, he slashed .248/.374/.406 with nine home runs and an 85/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Oakland's High A Stockton and New York's Binghamton, actually getting better with his promotion to AA. As I said, the bat is pretty average, but look for him to keep moving up through the minors and end up in the majors as a back-up soon. 25 year old David Thompson was injured for much of 2018 (.244/.314/.359 in 25 games) but shows some marginal power and patience when healthy, and he could be a useful, power hitting pinch hitter as soon as 2019. 24 year old Michael Paez had a solid season at St. Lucie, slashing .270/.340/.404 with eleven home runs and a 79/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games. He has a pretty average all around game, but he also has no glaring weaknesses and has a good shot at challenging Carpio for that utility infielder spot. Lastly, we cannot write this section without talking about 31 year old Tim Tebow, an outfielder who we all know better as the former quarterback for the Florida Gators and later the Denver Broncos, among other teams. At AA Binghamton in 2018, he slashed .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 84 games, showing a surprisingly useful bat even if he still struck out at an alarming 34.6% rate. At 31 years old, I still doubt he ends up anything more than a publicity stunt, but at least with his decent production at AA, he may actually be worth the shot he's given to prove himself.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Mark Vientos, SS Shervyen Newton, 2B Luis Santana, SS Ronny Mauricio, OF Adrian Hernandez, C Francisco Alvarez, and OF Freddy Valdez
The Mets have a lot more upside down on the farm, especially with hitters, and you could argue that their best non-Alonso/Gimenez talent passed through rookie level Kingsport this year. I got to head over to Pulaski, Virginia to see them play in August, where I came away impressed with a few players. 18 year old Mark Vientos probably has the best combination of upside and floor in this section, having slashed .287/.389/.489 with 11 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at Kingsport. The 6'4" third baseman showed power, plate discipline, and solid defense in his stint in the Appalachian League, and he could turn himself into an impact prospect with a similar season next year in A ball by proving himself against higher velocities. 19 year old Shervyen Newton was part of the Kingsport crew this year, slashing .280/.408/.449 with five home runs and an 84/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He has a very patient approach that should continue to enable high on-base percentages for him, and with a loose, whippy swing from a 6'4" frame, he could have plus power in time. Contact will be the main thing for him to work on, as he struggles to catch up to harder fastballs, but I think the issue is mechanical and the Mets could have a serious prospect if they coach him right. 19 year old Luis Santana, yet another member of the Kingsport Mets this past season, had a big year statistically and slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and an excellent 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He's just 5'8" but plays bigger, generating some decent power by employing a large leg kick without sacrificing that advanced approach. That leg kick might get him in trouble a bit against higher level pitching (it even did in the Appalachian League from time to time), but I would not underestimate him. 17 year old Ronny Mauricio is extremely young, and he slashed .273/.304/.410 with three home runs and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in his pro debut this year, playing mostly in complex ball with some exposure up at Kingsport. He's a slick fielding shortstop that has the tools to stay there, and while his bat is unproven, he handled complex ball well (.279/.307/.421) and should improve as he gets older. His overall offensive game is essentially average, obviously with a lot of time to grow and develop his skill set. He could be a breakout candidate for 2019 but we may have to wait until 2020 to see who Mauricio really is as a prospect. 17 year old Adrian Hernandez was right behind him, slashing .261/.351/.386 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 52/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games in complex ball. Despite standing 5'9", he shows more power and speed than Mauricio but profiles as an average-defending right fielder rather than a good shortstop. Like Mauricio, Hernandez has a lot to prove before moving up the lists or being labeled an impact prospect. Lastly, 17 year olds Francisco Alvarez and Freddy Valdez were both just signed out of Latin America and have not played yet. Alvarez is a Venezuelan catcher who is extremely raw (which is not surprising given he just turned 17), showing power and arm strength but needing work on the rest of his game. Valdez is a power hitting Dominican outfielder who already stood at 6'3" and 210 pounds on his 17th birthday, but like Alvarez, he'll need to work on his approach significantly. It's easy to project these recent signees as potential future stars, but there is also high risk involved and many don't make it past A ball.
Affiliates: AAA Las Vegas 51's*, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, Short Season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
*AAA affiliate will move from Las Vegas, NV to Syracuse, NY in 2019
The Headliners: 1B Peter Alonso and SS Andres Gimenez
There are no truly elite prospects in the Mets' system, though 24 year old Peter Alonso and 20 year old Andres Gimenez mark the clear two best prospects with Jarred Kelenic's trade to Seattle. Alonso had a huge year in the upper minors this year, slashing .285/.395/.579 with 36 home runs and a 128/76 strikeout to walk ratio over 132 games about evenly split between AA Binghamton and hitter-friendly AAA Las Vegas. He has a ton of power and draws a ton of walks, with his only question on offense being his ability to make contact. He is limited to first base defensively, but his bat is good enough to profile there and he could be a 30 homer, .350 on-base percentage bat at his best. He's an early candidate for 2019 NL Rookie of the Year, though of course that is contingent on his ability to make contact at the highest level. Gimenez is a very different kind of prospect, showing more contact and defense than power. The slick fielding shortstop slashed .281/.347/.409 with six home runs, 38 stolen bases, and a 92/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games between High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton this year. He's a very advanced hitter for his age, making ready contact and using his speed to make things happen, though he's unlikely to ever develop much power and his offensive value will be largely dependent on his batting average. He could be a leadoff hitter as a best case scenario, but he'll need to start walking more in order to end up more than a bottom of the order hitter, though his defense should help him start so long as he hits like he should.
The Pitchers: LHP David Peterson, RHP Franklyn Kilome, LHP Anthony Kay, LHP Thomas Szapucki, RHP Jordan Humphreys, and RHP Simeon Woods-Richardson
There's really not much pitching depth at all in this system, especially with Justin Dunn gone to Seattle, with a small chance overall of getting a single impact pitcher out of the group of current prospects. Arguably the pitcher with the best shot of separating himself from the pack is 23 year old David Peterson, a 6'6" lefty, had a good first full season in pro ball by posting a 3.16 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a 115/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 128 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie. He was better at Columbia (1.82 ERA, 57/11 K/BB) than at St. Lucie (4.33 ERA, 58/19 K/BB), but his combination of stuff and command is unmatched in this system and he has a good shot at becoming a #3 or #4 starter. 23 year old Franklyn Kilome, who came over from Philadelphia in the Asdrubal Cabrera trade, is another 6'6" arm. The righty put up a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 125/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 140 innings at AA, a moderate step back from his 2018 numbers when the Phillies (and now the Mets) were hoping for a step forward. He throws in the upper 90's but with just a good curveball and a mediocre changeup and command, Kilome is running out of time to prove he can cut it as a starter. If his command doesn't step forward in 2019, he probably ends up a good reliever rather than a #3 starter. 23 year old Anthony Kay, a Long Island native, missed 2017 to Tommy John surgery, but returned in 2018 to make a successful pro debut. In 23 starts between Columbia and St. Lucie, he posted a 4.26 ERA, a 1.41 WHIP, and a 123/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 122.2 innings. Kay is smaller than Peterson and Kilome, standing at 6', but he's a lefty that commands his stuff fairly well, though his slider will need to improve if he wants to start in the major leagues. Right now, the relief risk is high, though he does have a shot at being a back-end starter. 22 year olds Thomas Szapucki and Jordan Humphreys, who were born one day apart in June 1996 and who both grew up in Florida, both missed the 2018 season with Tommy John surgery. Both had been dominant statistically before their surgeries, though aside from both being 6'2", that's where the similarities end. Szapucki is a lefty with a power fastball/curveball combination who strikes opponents out in bunches but who also struggles with his command at times, while Humphreys is a righty gets by more on his exceptional feel for pitching. Naturally, Szapucki has a higher ceiling and could be a #2 or #3 starter if he tightens his command, while Humphreys has a better shot at cracking the majors as a back-end starter who gets by on command. Of course, the big thing in 2019 will be for both to stay healthy. Lastly, 18 year old Simeon Woods-Richardson was just drafted in the second round (48th overall) out of a Houston area high school, showing projectability with a solid 6'3" frame and a low 90's fastball to go with a good curveball and good enough command. He showed well in his small-sample pro debut, posting a 1.56 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 26/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 17.1 innings between complex ball and rookie level Kingsport, so the Mets hope that pro coaching can help him refine the edges of his game and make him into a potential impact prospect. Obviously, the risk is as high here as with any pitcher on this list.
Upper Level Hitters: OF Desmond Lindsay, 2B Luis Carpio, C Tomas Nido, 3B Will Toffey, 3B David Thompson, 3B Michael Paez, and OF Tim Tebow
When it comes to close-to-the-majors talent, the Mets really have nothing in terms of hitters after Peter Alonso and Andres Gimenez, with nobody projecting to be more than a back-up or utility man. 21 year old outfielder Desmond Lindsay may have some of the highest upside in this group, but he has struggled to put it together in the minors so far and slashed just .223/.317/.325 with three home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 96/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 90 games between High A St. Lucie and complex ball rehab work. He has good patience at the plate with some speed and feel for the barrel, but at the close of his fourth pro season, it looks like he'll never reach that ceiling. 2019 will be a big make or break season for him as a prospect. 21 year old Luis Carpio had a power breakout in 2018, slashing .219/.290/.364 with twelve home runs and an 81/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games, all but one of which was at St. Lucie. I call that a power breakout because from 2014-2017, Carpio hit just four home runs total, so twelve in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League is a different look. Otherwise, he has a pretty light bat that he makes up for with good infield defense, looking like a back-up second baseman at this point. 24 year old Tomas Nido has already played in the majors, catching 39 games over 2017 and 2018 and slashing .181/.210/.255 along the way. Spending the rest of the season mostly with AA Binghamton as well as a few games at AAA Las Vegas, he slashed .272/.300/.431 with five home runs and a 38/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games, showing good contact and a bit of power not enough for him to be even the short term answer to the Mets' catching problems but enough to put him in the back-up conversation for 2019. 23 year old Will Toffey has a pretty average bat, but his great plate discipline and good glove make him a player to watch. In 2018, he slashed .248/.374/.406 with nine home runs and an 85/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 89 games at Oakland's High A Stockton and New York's Binghamton, actually getting better with his promotion to AA. As I said, the bat is pretty average, but look for him to keep moving up through the minors and end up in the majors as a back-up soon. 25 year old David Thompson was injured for much of 2018 (.244/.314/.359 in 25 games) but shows some marginal power and patience when healthy, and he could be a useful, power hitting pinch hitter as soon as 2019. 24 year old Michael Paez had a solid season at St. Lucie, slashing .270/.340/.404 with eleven home runs and a 79/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 121 games. He has a pretty average all around game, but he also has no glaring weaknesses and has a good shot at challenging Carpio for that utility infielder spot. Lastly, we cannot write this section without talking about 31 year old Tim Tebow, an outfielder who we all know better as the former quarterback for the Florida Gators and later the Denver Broncos, among other teams. At AA Binghamton in 2018, he slashed .273/.336/.399 with six home runs and a 103/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 84 games, showing a surprisingly useful bat even if he still struck out at an alarming 34.6% rate. At 31 years old, I still doubt he ends up anything more than a publicity stunt, but at least with his decent production at AA, he may actually be worth the shot he's given to prove himself.
Lower Level Hitters: 3B Mark Vientos, SS Shervyen Newton, 2B Luis Santana, SS Ronny Mauricio, OF Adrian Hernandez, C Francisco Alvarez, and OF Freddy Valdez
The Mets have a lot more upside down on the farm, especially with hitters, and you could argue that their best non-Alonso/Gimenez talent passed through rookie level Kingsport this year. I got to head over to Pulaski, Virginia to see them play in August, where I came away impressed with a few players. 18 year old Mark Vientos probably has the best combination of upside and floor in this section, having slashed .287/.389/.489 with 11 home runs and a 43/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at Kingsport. The 6'4" third baseman showed power, plate discipline, and solid defense in his stint in the Appalachian League, and he could turn himself into an impact prospect with a similar season next year in A ball by proving himself against higher velocities. 19 year old Shervyen Newton was part of the Kingsport crew this year, slashing .280/.408/.449 with five home runs and an 84/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 56 games. He has a very patient approach that should continue to enable high on-base percentages for him, and with a loose, whippy swing from a 6'4" frame, he could have plus power in time. Contact will be the main thing for him to work on, as he struggles to catch up to harder fastballs, but I think the issue is mechanical and the Mets could have a serious prospect if they coach him right. 19 year old Luis Santana, yet another member of the Kingsport Mets this past season, had a big year statistically and slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs, eight stolen bases, and an excellent 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games. He's just 5'8" but plays bigger, generating some decent power by employing a large leg kick without sacrificing that advanced approach. That leg kick might get him in trouble a bit against higher level pitching (it even did in the Appalachian League from time to time), but I would not underestimate him. 17 year old Ronny Mauricio is extremely young, and he slashed .273/.304/.410 with three home runs and a 40/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 games in his pro debut this year, playing mostly in complex ball with some exposure up at Kingsport. He's a slick fielding shortstop that has the tools to stay there, and while his bat is unproven, he handled complex ball well (.279/.307/.421) and should improve as he gets older. His overall offensive game is essentially average, obviously with a lot of time to grow and develop his skill set. He could be a breakout candidate for 2019 but we may have to wait until 2020 to see who Mauricio really is as a prospect. 17 year old Adrian Hernandez was right behind him, slashing .261/.351/.386 with five home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 52/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games in complex ball. Despite standing 5'9", he shows more power and speed than Mauricio but profiles as an average-defending right fielder rather than a good shortstop. Like Mauricio, Hernandez has a lot to prove before moving up the lists or being labeled an impact prospect. Lastly, 17 year olds Francisco Alvarez and Freddy Valdez were both just signed out of Latin America and have not played yet. Alvarez is a Venezuelan catcher who is extremely raw (which is not surprising given he just turned 17), showing power and arm strength but needing work on the rest of his game. Valdez is a power hitting Dominican outfielder who already stood at 6'3" and 210 pounds on his 17th birthday, but like Alvarez, he'll need to work on his approach significantly. It's easy to project these recent signees as potential future stars, but there is also high risk involved and many don't make it past A ball.
Sunday, July 2, 2017
2017 Draft Review: New York Mets
First 5 rounds: David Peterson (1-20), Mark Vientos (2-59), Quinn Brodey (3-97), Tony Dibrell (4-127), Matt Winaker (5-157)
Also notable: Trey Cobb (8-247), Carl Stajduhar (18-547), C.J. Van Eyk (19-577), Jake Eder (34-1027)
The Mets seemed to be a fan of the west coast in this year's draft, taking a pitcher out of Oregon with their first pick, a pair of Stanford stars in the third and fifth rounds, and one each from Cal State Northridge (7th round), Long Beach State (25th round), Azusa Pacific (27th round), and a California high school (39th round). Interestingly, they also took six high school pitchers from the state of Florid, seemingly leaning heavily on certain area scouts. They took eight straight college players from rounds three through ten, but other than that, they balanced the different age levels fairly evenly.
1-20: LHP David Peterson (my rank: 19)
Peterson is fairly similar to the Mets' compensation pick last year, UConn lefty Anthony Kay. While Peterson is a little, no, a lot bigger (seven inches, 70 pounds), both are pitchability college lefties, and Peterson has a good chance to turn into a mid-rotation starter. The 6'6'" Oregon ace had a big breakout year after Ducks pitching coach Jason Dietrich changed his mechanics, going 11-4 with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 140 and walking just 15 in 100.1 innings. While his diverse arsenal was enough to miss a plethora of bats in the Pac-12, it will play closer to average in pro ball, but he commands and mixes it well enough to have a high floor as a safe bet to start in the majors. He won't be the next Noah Syndergaard, but Peterson could settle nicely into a mid-rotation role sooner rather than later. He has not signed yet.
2-59: 3B Mark Vientos (my rank: 40)
Vientos was a bit enigmatic throughout the season, flashing big potential but sometimes struggling to show it consistently on the field. That makes sense, because he doesn't turn 18 until December and he was the youngest player selected in the early rounds, a full year younger than the typical high school senior. Vientos played shortstop at American Heritage High School north of Miami, but he'll be a third baseman going forward, where his below average speed will hinder him less. When he's going right, showing some power potential with a powerful swing, though at times I think there is too much yanking and that could hurt his ability to hit for average. He has a high ceiling as a beta version of Nolan Arenado, but he also has a very low floor. Vientos signed for $1.5 million, which is $405,300 over slot.
3-97: OF Quinn Brodey (unranked)
The Mets went for a safe pick in the third round, nabbing Stanford outfielder Quinn Brodey. Brodey steadily improved during his time in Palo Alto, finishing with with a solid junior year where he slashed .314/.371/.556 with 11 home runs and a low-ish strikeout rate of 12.3%. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder in pro ball, but he could end up a tweener if his bat doesn't translate up in pro ball. Brodey signed for $500,000, which is $53,200 below slot.
4-127: RHP Tony Dibrell (my rank: 97)
I like Dibrell, a 6'3" righty who had a breakout year for Kennesaw State this year. Over 14 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, striking out 103 in 95.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, his breaking ball has solid drop, and his changeup is fairly advanced, so he could develop into a mid-rotation starter. However, his command starts to wobble when he struggles to repeat his arm slot, but if he can't cut it as a starter, I think his stuff can play up in the bullpen. Dibrell signed for $380,000, which is $33,100 below slot.
34-1027: LHP Jake Eder (my rank: 59)
Eder is unlikely to sign here in the 34th round and will instead attend Vanderbilt, where he could grow into a first round pick. The 6'4" lefty already has a low 90's fastball despite extremely inconsistent mechanics, and depending on the day you see him, his offspeed pitches could all look plus, or they could be soft and hittable. Eder has all the tools to be a top of the rotation starter, but he is also extremely high risk and his stock could plunge with struggles at Vanderbilt.
Others: 5th rounder Matt Winaker joined Brodey in the Stanford lineup, having a breakout 2017 by slashing .308/.432/.514 with eight home runs and a high 15.7% walk rate. Like Brodey, Winaker profiles best as a fourth outfielder, showing average tools but a good feel for the strike zone. 8th rounder Trey Cobb got lots of exposure at the College World Series in 2016, and he finishes up a four year career at Oklahoma State 10-10 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He just turned 23 in June, so he is a little behind on the age clock, but he could be a fast mover as a right handed sinker/slider reliever. 18th rounder Carl Stajduhar put up big offensive numbers in the Coors Field-type environment at New Mexico, slashing .350/.453/.650 with 17 home runs as a junior. He'll be limited to first base defensively, but he has a ton of power. 19th rounder C.J. Van Eyk probably won't sign, and will likely attend Florida State instead. The Tampa-area high schooler has top 50 stuff, showing a low 90's fastball and a big breaking curveball, but as he reaches back for more velocity, he often struggles with command. The bigger red flag for Van Eyk is his injury history, as he missed significant time this spring with forearm trouble, which can often be a precursor to Tommy John.
Also notable: Trey Cobb (8-247), Carl Stajduhar (18-547), C.J. Van Eyk (19-577), Jake Eder (34-1027)
The Mets seemed to be a fan of the west coast in this year's draft, taking a pitcher out of Oregon with their first pick, a pair of Stanford stars in the third and fifth rounds, and one each from Cal State Northridge (7th round), Long Beach State (25th round), Azusa Pacific (27th round), and a California high school (39th round). Interestingly, they also took six high school pitchers from the state of Florid, seemingly leaning heavily on certain area scouts. They took eight straight college players from rounds three through ten, but other than that, they balanced the different age levels fairly evenly.
1-20: LHP David Peterson (my rank: 19)
Peterson is fairly similar to the Mets' compensation pick last year, UConn lefty Anthony Kay. While Peterson is a little, no, a lot bigger (seven inches, 70 pounds), both are pitchability college lefties, and Peterson has a good chance to turn into a mid-rotation starter. The 6'6'" Oregon ace had a big breakout year after Ducks pitching coach Jason Dietrich changed his mechanics, going 11-4 with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP, striking out 140 and walking just 15 in 100.1 innings. While his diverse arsenal was enough to miss a plethora of bats in the Pac-12, it will play closer to average in pro ball, but he commands and mixes it well enough to have a high floor as a safe bet to start in the majors. He won't be the next Noah Syndergaard, but Peterson could settle nicely into a mid-rotation role sooner rather than later. He has not signed yet.
2-59: 3B Mark Vientos (my rank: 40)
Vientos was a bit enigmatic throughout the season, flashing big potential but sometimes struggling to show it consistently on the field. That makes sense, because he doesn't turn 18 until December and he was the youngest player selected in the early rounds, a full year younger than the typical high school senior. Vientos played shortstop at American Heritage High School north of Miami, but he'll be a third baseman going forward, where his below average speed will hinder him less. When he's going right, showing some power potential with a powerful swing, though at times I think there is too much yanking and that could hurt his ability to hit for average. He has a high ceiling as a beta version of Nolan Arenado, but he also has a very low floor. Vientos signed for $1.5 million, which is $405,300 over slot.
3-97: OF Quinn Brodey (unranked)
The Mets went for a safe pick in the third round, nabbing Stanford outfielder Quinn Brodey. Brodey steadily improved during his time in Palo Alto, finishing with with a solid junior year where he slashed .314/.371/.556 with 11 home runs and a low-ish strikeout rate of 12.3%. He profiles best as a fourth outfielder in pro ball, but he could end up a tweener if his bat doesn't translate up in pro ball. Brodey signed for $500,000, which is $53,200 below slot.
4-127: RHP Tony Dibrell (my rank: 97)
I like Dibrell, a 6'3" righty who had a breakout year for Kennesaw State this year. Over 14 starts, he went 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, striking out 103 in 95.2 innings. His fastball sits in the low to mid 90's, his breaking ball has solid drop, and his changeup is fairly advanced, so he could develop into a mid-rotation starter. However, his command starts to wobble when he struggles to repeat his arm slot, but if he can't cut it as a starter, I think his stuff can play up in the bullpen. Dibrell signed for $380,000, which is $33,100 below slot.
34-1027: LHP Jake Eder (my rank: 59)
Eder is unlikely to sign here in the 34th round and will instead attend Vanderbilt, where he could grow into a first round pick. The 6'4" lefty already has a low 90's fastball despite extremely inconsistent mechanics, and depending on the day you see him, his offspeed pitches could all look plus, or they could be soft and hittable. Eder has all the tools to be a top of the rotation starter, but he is also extremely high risk and his stock could plunge with struggles at Vanderbilt.
Others: 5th rounder Matt Winaker joined Brodey in the Stanford lineup, having a breakout 2017 by slashing .308/.432/.514 with eight home runs and a high 15.7% walk rate. Like Brodey, Winaker profiles best as a fourth outfielder, showing average tools but a good feel for the strike zone. 8th rounder Trey Cobb got lots of exposure at the College World Series in 2016, and he finishes up a four year career at Oklahoma State 10-10 with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP, splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. He just turned 23 in June, so he is a little behind on the age clock, but he could be a fast mover as a right handed sinker/slider reliever. 18th rounder Carl Stajduhar put up big offensive numbers in the Coors Field-type environment at New Mexico, slashing .350/.453/.650 with 17 home runs as a junior. He'll be limited to first base defensively, but he has a ton of power. 19th rounder C.J. Van Eyk probably won't sign, and will likely attend Florida State instead. The Tampa-area high schooler has top 50 stuff, showing a low 90's fastball and a big breaking curveball, but as he reaches back for more velocity, he often struggles with command. The bigger red flag for Van Eyk is his injury history, as he missed significant time this spring with forearm trouble, which can often be a precursor to Tommy John.
Friday, June 9, 2017
2017 Draft Demographics: Safe Bet College Starters
1st Tier: Brendan McKay, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
2nd Tier: Griffin Canning, David Peterson, Seth Romero, Wil Crowe
3rd Tier: Jake Thompson, Will Gaddis, Spencer Howard, Zac Lowther, Keegan Thompson
Others: Charlie Barnes
Also in this category: Luke Heimlich
This isn't a particularly wide-ranging demographic, so we can focus a little more on each individual player. These guys won't be aces, starting pitchers of any sort are extremely valuable, and these guys are as safe a bet as any to become just that. They have proven track records and give you a much better idea of who they are. You may recognize two big wild cards on here in Romero and Heimlich, but if you focus on their on-field abilities, they fit in this profile.
Tier I (McKay, Faedo)
Brendan McKay the pitcher (not to be confused with his alter ego, Brendan McKay the hitter) may have the highest floor in this whole draft. If drafted as a pitcher, he's a pretty safe bet to at least pitch effectively somewhere in a major league rotation. The lefty throws in the low to mid 90's early in games before tapering off as the game goes by, but he should be able to fix that if he focuses solely on pitching, and he still gets the job done when his fastball is sitting 88-89. He also has one of the best curveballs in the class, with big breaking action that generates plenty of swings and misses. Alex Faedo, who is three inches taller than McKay at 6'5" but throws right handed, has had erratic fastball velocity this spring after fall knee surgeries, but still fits well in this demographic. Before the surgeries, he could dial his fastball into the mid 90's regularly, though he sat in the low 90's at the beginning of the spring before bumping his velocity back up gradually. Like McKay's curveball, Faedo's slider profiles as among the best in the class, behind perhaps only that of J.B. Bukauskas. With a decent changeup, solid control, and a strong track record in the SEC, Faedo will almost certainly end up in an MLB rotation.
Tier II (Canning, Peterson, Romero, Crowe)
Two of these players have raised their profiles this spring, while two have hurt them. Griffin Canning was considered a possible first round pick but more likely a supplemental or second rounder, while David Peterson wasn't even in the first round conversation. With strong springs, both will likely be taken in the first 20 picks. Scouts have always loved Canning's advanced feel for pitching, but they wanted him to improve on his good-not-great Pac-12 numbers. That he did, dropping his ERA from 3.70 as a sophomore to 2.34 as a junior while bumping up his strikeout percentage from a solid 20.5% to an excellent 29.4%. Meanwhile, Peterson overhauled his mechanics, and the results were terrific. His 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio was one of the most eye-popping stats in college baseball this year, and it paired nicely with his 2.51 ERA. Both Canning and Peterson throw in the low 90's with full arsenals, and while Canning has a much better curveball, Peterson's slider tops Canning's. Canning also has the better changeup of the two. The left handed Peterson (6'6", 240 lbs) is much bigger than the right handed Canning (6'1", 170 lbs), though Canning has the advantage of being eight months younger. Both pitchers will likely come off the board somewhere in the 12-20 range, and any team that considers one will consider the other. Now, Seth Romero isn't really a safe bet at all when you consider his makeup issues, which ended up getting him booted from his college team this year, but the on-field profile is as safe a bet as any, save for McKay. As long as he keeps up with his conditioning (reportedly an issue during his time at the University of Houston), he can attack hitters with a power three pitch arsenal, coming in with a low to mid 90's fastball, a plus slider that ranks behind only Bukauskas and Faedo in the college ranks, and an above average changeup. Coming from a durable, 6'3", left handed package, that's the stuff top ten picks are made of if they don't get themselves kicked off their teams. Lastly for this tier, there is Wil Crowe, the big bodied righty who hasn't dominated the SEC the way some would have hoped this season. After sitting out what would have been his junior season due to Tommy John surgery last year, he is an older prospect, but there is a really intriguing package here. His sinking, low to mid 90's fastball sets up the rest of his full arsenal, with his curveball, slider, and changeup all grading out as above average. He got hit harder as the season wore on, meaning he may not be fully recovered from surgery, but if you can look past that as well as his age, you have a back-end starter here with a relatively high floor.
Tier III (J. Thompson, Gaddis, Howard, Lowther, K. Thompson)
Luke Heimlich would have ranked right at the front of this tier, but it recently came out in the news that he is a registered level one sex offender in Washington, as he sexually molested a six year old family member when he was fifteen years old. This has, naturally, severely damaged or even destroyed his draft stock, pushing him from a likely top 50 pick to one who may not be drafted at all. Heimlich is the best pitcher on the best team in college baseball, Oregon State, having gone 11-1 with a 0.76 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, striking out 128 batters in 118.1 innings over 16 starts. Anyways, let's move on to his teammate, Jake Thompson. Thompson, a redshirt junior who is already 22, has matched his teammate almost pitch for pitch, going 13-0 with a 1.30 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP while striking out 106 batters in 110.2 innings, 24.9% in all. He is currently pitching against Vanderbilt in place of Heimlich as I write this, so those numbers will change. Thompson has taken a huge step forward this year, bumping his fastball into the mid 90's with a solid slider and usable changeup. The lack of a track record makes some scouts nervous to use a second round pick on him, but he'll fit nicely in the third round. Will Gaddis, Furman's ace, has a very high floor but a low ceiling. He has dominated the Southern Conference (1.89 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 89/15 K/BB) with a fairly ordinary arsenal, led by a sinking low 90's fastball and a solid changeup. His breaking pitches aren't quite as good, and he profiles like a smaller Wil Crowe. Spencer Howard, a former walk-on at Cal Poly, has dominated in his two years on campus and profiles well as a back-end starter with his full arsenal, coming with a higher ceiling than Gaddis but a lower floor due to a shorter track record and less advanced command. Like Gaddis and Howard, Zac Lowther has dominated at a mid-major school, putting up a 2.92 ERA, but more notably, a 35.9% strikeout rate for Xavier this season. He's not your typical strikeout artist, though, as his upper 80's fastball is the slowest on this list but plays up due to advanced command and running movement. Combine that with a decent arsenal overall, and he's a left handed Gaddis with less velocity. Lastly, Keegan Thompson is another 22 year old, but he has the best secondary stuff in Tier III with an excellent curveball and a good changeup. With his solid command and low 90's fastball, he has the highest floor in this tier, but Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2016 season.
Saturday, June 3, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: David Peterson
LHP David Peterson (University of Oregon): 6'6", 240 lbs, born 9/3/1995.
Overview
Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 50. Command: 60.
Originally on the outside of the first round discussion looking in at the beginning of this spring as a high floor, low ceiling lefty, Peterson has raised his floor even higher and has pushed his ceiling higher than the back-end starter level it was previously at. Now a virtual lock for the first round, he has a very good chance to go in the top half of the round and could even crack the top ten. He joins Louisville's Brendan McKay and UCLA's Griffin Canning as one of the three safest bets to start in the major leagues after a huge junior season at Oregon that saw him put up a 2.51 ERA and a ridiculous 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio in the Pac-12.
Strengths
There is very little risk involved in taking Peterson. The big lefty has a durable build at 6'6" and 240 pounds, and his full arsenal means he will likely never be relegated to the bullpen. His bread and butter is his fastball/slider combo, with the former working in the low 90's and the latter featuring hard bite. Both play up because of his ability to keep them around the corners of the strike zone. His changeup is also a usable pitch, one that has developed nicely if unspectacularly, and his curveball is mediocre but present and a distinctively different look from his slider. Peterson had a couple of games that caught national attention. On March 3rd, against a strong Mississippi State lineup that includes college baseball's top performer this year, Brent Rooker (.404/.505/.843, 53 XBH), Peterson tossed eight shutout innings on just three hits (all singles), no walks, and 17 strikeouts. On April 28th, against perennial power Arizona State (albeit with a weaker team this season), Peterson went the distance, allowing just four hits, one walk, and no earned runs over the full nine innings, striking out 20 Sun Devils. College performers, especially ones who are left handed pitchers, tend to come off the board early on draft day.
Weaknesses
While Peterson has raised his ceiling considerably this season, he still isn't likely to be more than a #3 starter. He is fully physically developed, so his low 90's fastball will remain just where it is, in the low 90's. His curveball is usable in college, but it will need to be tightened significantly if he wants to use it in pro ball, and there is a chance he scraps it to focus on the fastball-slider-changeup combination. He has also stumbled a bit recently, allowing four earned runs in two of his final three starts against #1 ranked Oregon State (5 IP) and UCLA (7 IP), and he also uncharacteristically walked four Beavers in that May 12th start against OSU. This is just nitpicking, though, and it doesn't change the fact that Peterson has as good a chance as any pitcher in this draft to crack an MLB rotation and do it soon. However, it has reduced his chances of going in the top ten, and he likely falls somewhere in the teens.
Overview
Fastball: 55. Slider: 55. Curveball: 45. Changeup: 50. Command: 60.
Originally on the outside of the first round discussion looking in at the beginning of this spring as a high floor, low ceiling lefty, Peterson has raised his floor even higher and has pushed his ceiling higher than the back-end starter level it was previously at. Now a virtual lock for the first round, he has a very good chance to go in the top half of the round and could even crack the top ten. He joins Louisville's Brendan McKay and UCLA's Griffin Canning as one of the three safest bets to start in the major leagues after a huge junior season at Oregon that saw him put up a 2.51 ERA and a ridiculous 140/15 strikeout to walk ratio in the Pac-12.
Strengths
There is very little risk involved in taking Peterson. The big lefty has a durable build at 6'6" and 240 pounds, and his full arsenal means he will likely never be relegated to the bullpen. His bread and butter is his fastball/slider combo, with the former working in the low 90's and the latter featuring hard bite. Both play up because of his ability to keep them around the corners of the strike zone. His changeup is also a usable pitch, one that has developed nicely if unspectacularly, and his curveball is mediocre but present and a distinctively different look from his slider. Peterson had a couple of games that caught national attention. On March 3rd, against a strong Mississippi State lineup that includes college baseball's top performer this year, Brent Rooker (.404/.505/.843, 53 XBH), Peterson tossed eight shutout innings on just three hits (all singles), no walks, and 17 strikeouts. On April 28th, against perennial power Arizona State (albeit with a weaker team this season), Peterson went the distance, allowing just four hits, one walk, and no earned runs over the full nine innings, striking out 20 Sun Devils. College performers, especially ones who are left handed pitchers, tend to come off the board early on draft day.
Weaknesses
While Peterson has raised his ceiling considerably this season, he still isn't likely to be more than a #3 starter. He is fully physically developed, so his low 90's fastball will remain just where it is, in the low 90's. His curveball is usable in college, but it will need to be tightened significantly if he wants to use it in pro ball, and there is a chance he scraps it to focus on the fastball-slider-changeup combination. He has also stumbled a bit recently, allowing four earned runs in two of his final three starts against #1 ranked Oregon State (5 IP) and UCLA (7 IP), and he also uncharacteristically walked four Beavers in that May 12th start against OSU. This is just nitpicking, though, and it doesn't change the fact that Peterson has as good a chance as any pitcher in this draft to crack an MLB rotation and do it soon. However, it has reduced his chances of going in the top ten, and he likely falls somewhere in the teens.
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