It's not a particularly strong system, but I'd go ahead and say the strength of this system lies in the infield, where Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty make up the core of the Mets' future offense. Behind the plate, though, I think 18 year old Francisco Alvarez is absolutely legit. In fact, I think he's at a minimum the fourth best catching prospect in all of baseball, and you could argue him as high as #2 behind only Adley Rutschman. Beyond that, the system is pretty thin in the outfield, and they have a solid if unspectacular group of pitching prospects. I think the organization's strength has been in the international market, where they have found several of their best prospects on the offensive side including Gimenez, Mauricio, Alvarez, Freddy Valdez, and Shervyen Newton.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Mets, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, short season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
Catcher
- Ali Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Always known for his glove, Sanchez put himself on the map by slashing .265/.294/.387 in A ball in 2018, which isn't anything much but it's enough to get noticed when you're a glove-first catcher. He then hit .278/.337/.337 with one home run and a 52/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games at AA Binghamton in 2019, then struggled to a .179/.277/.250 mark and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games after a promotion to AAA Syracuse. Sanchez is known exclusively for his glove, as he's one of the minors' best defensive catchers, and that alone will get him to the majors. On the other side, he hits for virtually no impact, with his one saving grace at the plate being that he manages the strike zone well and avoids strikeouts. Sanchez will never be a starting catcher, but with his glove and ability to at least put the ball in play regularly, he could have a long career as a backup.
- Francisco Alvarez (2020 Age: 18): Alvarez signed for $2.7 million out Venezuela in 2018, and his loud first season might have already given him the title of the best teenage catcher in baseball. The Mets skipped him over the Dominican Summer League entirely and sent him straight to the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2019, an aggressive assignment for a 17 year old, and he responded by slashing .462/.548/.846 with a pair of home runs and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games. That caused the Mets to push him to rookie level Kingsport way ahead of schedule, and he still slashed .282/.377/.443 with five home runs and a 33/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games, where he was one of the youngest players above complex ball anywhere in the minors. He uses an explosive right handed swing to generate above average raw power despite a 5'11" frame, and his exceptional feel for the barrel helps him get to it consistently against older pitching. His defense needs work, but he'll play all of 2020 at 18 years old and there's no reason to think it won't improve. Do not sleep on this kid. He could hit 20+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages in the majors, i.e. a perennial All Star.
- Keep an eye on: Patrick Mazeika, Andres Regnault
Corner Infield
- Will Toffey (2020 Age: 25): Toffey's stock dropped considerably in 2019, but with the same thing happening to fellow upper minors corner infielders Michael Paez and David Thompson, he remains at least relevant in this system. Acquired from the A's in the Jeurys Familia trade in 2018, Toffey slashed .219/.347/.349 with five home runs and a 90/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Binghamton, and at this point I kind of doubt he'll hit for much impact at the major league level. He's known for his very good defense at third base, which could carry him to the majors, and his patient, mature approach at the plate is certainly a boon. He has some power to go with those on-base skills, though it's nothing special and he wasn't able to get to it often in AA, so at this point he's probably a bench bat.
- Mark Vientos (2020 Age: 20): Vientos was the Mets' second round pick in 2017 out of a South Florida high school, though because he was one of the youngest players in the entire draft, the Mets have brought him along slowly. He reached full season ball in 2019 and slashed .255/.300/.411 with 12 home runs and a 110/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Columbia, which might have dinged his stock a little bit but not too much. His strikeout rate jumped from 16.4% to 24.2% while his walk rate dropped from 14.1% to 4.8% as more advanced pitching exploited the holes in his approach, though he did manage to crack 27 doubles and 12 home runs, showing that he was still able to get to his power. He has an explosive swing from the right side and at 6'4", he has some additional natural power to grow into as he's set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old. He's a solid defender at third base, so the biggest thing for him in 2020 will be to get back to his approach at the plate and start hitting the pitches he wants to hit.
- Brett Baty (2020 Age: 20): Ironically, though Baty was the Mets' first round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2019, he's actually older than Vientos, who was a Mets high school draftee two years earlier. More on that in a second. Baty slashed .234/.368/.452 with seven home runs and a 65/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Kingsport, and at short season Brooklyn, though most of his time was spent at Kingsport. It was hard to get an accurate feel for his offensive upside in high school, because he was a year to a year and a half older than the typical high school senior, but he also put on an absolute show with his bat. He has a ton of raw power, that's not questioned, but there were questions as to whether his potentially above-average hit tool was actually above average. He struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances in his pro debut, so at this point I think we'd have to lower that grade to average or a tick below. 2020 will be more illuminating as he faces full season pitching, and if he acclimates well, he could hit 30+ home runs annually with good on-base percentages. It remains to be seen whether he sticks at third base, but the bat will still profile well at first base.
- Keep an eye on: Will Toffey, Michael Paez, Jaylen Palmer
Middle Infield
- Andres Gimenez (2020 Age: 21): The Mets seem to have a consistent pipeline of high level international shortstop prospects, as Amed Rosario is currently starting up in the big leagues while Andres Gimenez and Ronny Mauricio are coming up through the minors. Gimenez slashed .250/.309/.387 with nine home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 102/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at AA Bingamton, which was a bit of a step back from 2018 (.281/.347/.409) but still satisfactory given he was young for the level. He's tough to strike out and brings a good approach at the plate, and while he won't ever be a power hitter, he might be able to grow into moderate, double digit home run power if he starts to lift the ball a little more. He's also a good runner who plays great defense at shortstop, so it will be interesting to see how the Mets handle him and Rosario defensively, with one perhaps sliding to third base. In that case, it would be very tough to get the ball through the left side of their infield.
- Luis Carpio (2020 Age: 22-23): Carpio is another member of the fly ball revolution, as he hit a combined four home runs in his first five pro seasons before intentionally adding launch angle and hitting 12 in 2018. He didn't reach quite so high in 2019, but he still slashed .282/.361/.380 with four home runs and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. It was a nice season, because after seeing his strikeout rate rise a bit in 2018 as he tried to hit for more power, he brought it back down again in 2019 while still maintaining some impact. He still doesn't have a ton of pop and probably projects for 5-10 home runs annually in the majors, but he's tough to strike out and should be able to hit for contact and a little bit of extra base pop in the majors. That points to a career as a utility infielder, and his current best position is second base.
- Ronny Mauricio (2020 Age: 19): One of the most advanced 18 year olds in the minors, Mauricio played his first game in full season ball on his 18th birthday and slashed .268/.307/.357 with four home runs, six stolen bases, and a 99/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at Class A Columbia. As you would expect for a kid who had put in a full season in Class A by the time he was 18 and a half years old, Mauricio has extremely advanced feel for the game on both sides of the ball. There's little question whether he'll be able to hit for contact and get on base at the highest level, so the questions more revolve around his power. He's a skinny, projectable 6'3", and he did hit 20 doubles and five triples in 2019, but he also only hit four home runs. That's not necessarily a knock against him considering his age, and he did employ a ground ball-oriented approach that will probably need to be altered a bit, but it's enough to say it's not a given that he'll hit for more than average power. I do think adding both launch angle and strength could make him a perennial 20 homer/high on-base guy in the majors, which is certainly a valuable offensive profile. He's a good defender that should be skilled enough to stick at shortstop, but with the presence of Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez in the organization, third base may be his ultimate destination.
- Carlos Cortes (2020 Age: 22-23): Cortes is only listed at 5'7" but inch for inch, he's one of the better hitters in the system. He slashed .255/.336/.397 with 11 home runs and a 77/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A St. Lucie in 2019, very respectable numbers when you consider the pitcher-friendly context of the Florida State League. The South Carolina product has some solid power and it plays up because he controls the strike zone extremely well, enabling him to have a favorable offensive outlook where he could hit 15 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. However, most of that value is tied to his bat, as he's a mediocre fielder at second base, so his outlook might be more like a bench bat than a true starter, unless he takes another entirely possible step forward with the bat.
- Shervyen Newton (2020 Age: 21): Newton is frustrating as a prospect. He hit well in complex ball in 2017 (.311/.433/.444) and in rookie ball in 2018 (.280/.408/.449), and he showed both plenty of upside and some real flaws when I saw him play for Kingsport in 2018. His strong plate discipline as well as big time power potential were evident, but he also struggled with contact despite the aforementioned plate discipline. Those contact problems caught up to him in 2019, when he slashed .209/.283/.330 with nine home runs and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Columbia, though he did start to heat up some as the season went on. At 6'4", Newton has a lot of strength and a swing capable of producing above average power, though he hasn't demonstrated the ability to get to it consistently and may face an uphill battle in doing so. His ceiling remains high, but bust risk is rising. He is a good enough defender to play all over the infield and doesn't turn 21 until April, so he has a solid chance of becoming a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Luke Ritter, William Lugo
Outfield
- Tim Tebow (2020 Age: 32-33): I know we all desperately want him to reach the majors, but he hit just .163/.240/.255 with four home runs and a 98/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games at AAA Syracuse before going down with a hand injury in July. At this point it will probably take a daring PR stunt to get him to the majors and a complete, unexpected offensive breakout in order to stick for any period of time.
- Quinn Brodey (2020 Age: 24): In a system that's really lacking on upper-level outfielders, Stanford product and 2017 third rounder Quinn Brodey has done just enough to stand out. In 2019, he slashed .266/.323/.403 with ten home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 107/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton, showing fringy to average tools across the board. He makes consistent hard contact, and while he doesn't have a ton of raw power, he can drive the ball consistently and that should manifest into plenty of extra base hits and moderate home run pop. He also cut his strikeout rate a bit this year, and together that gives him an offensive profile of ten or so home runs annually with a decent on-base percentage and enough gap power to keep pitchers honest. He runs decently and can handle the outfield corners fairly well, giving him an overall fourth outfielder profile and the chance to get some regular starts against right handed pitching.
- Jake Mangum (2020 Age: 24): To be honest, I'm not sure that Mangum, who will begin his first full pro season at 24 years old, is going to be much more than a potential fourth/fifth outfielder. That said, you have to love this kid. He was a potential top five rounds pick as a draft-eligible sophomore at Mississippi State in 2017, but elected to return for his junior year. Afterwards, he stated he had unfinished business in Starkville and again turned down being a potential top five round pick in 2018, heading back for his senior season in 2019. Finally, after an illustrious career as potentially the most popular player in not only Mississippi State history, but in SEC baseball history as a whole, he finally accepted a fourth round selection to the Mets and slashed .247/.337/.297 with 17 stolen bases and a 26/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Brooklyn. Mangum is an 80 grade (top of the scale) leader with an 80 grade work ethic, one who plays his heart out on the field and leaves nothing in the tank. In an actual baseball sense, he doesn't have much to offer in the way of power, but he has great feel for the barrel and can spray line drives around the field with ease. Defensively, he's great all around in center field with his arm and range, and his speed helps him on both sides of the ball. His ceiling is limited due to the lack of power, but his work ethic should help his tools play up.
- Freddy Valdez (2020 Age: 18): Valdez signed for $1.45 million in 2018 and had a moderately successful first season, slashing .274/.367/.448 with six home runs, six stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games, mostly in the Dominican Summer League but with a few games in the Gulf Coast League. His carrying tool has been the natural pop in his 6'3" frame and leveraged swing, but he showed a patient enough approach this year to engender some confidence that he'll be able to get to that power at higher levels. Valdez is still very, very far off, but he'll play all of 2020 at 18 years old and he'll hopefully be able to refine his approach further to max that power.
- Keep an eye on: Desmond Lindsay, Wagner Lagrange, Antoine Duplantis, Scott Ota, Adrian Hernandez, Alexander Ramirez
Starting Pitching
- David Peterson (2020 Age: 24): With Anthony Kay gone to the Blue Jays, David Peterson becomes to the top pitching prospect in the Mets' upper minors. A first round pick out of Oregon in 2017, he posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 122/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings at AA Binghamton in 2019. Though he's 6'6", he doesn't actually throw that hard, scraping the low 90's with his fastball while relying more on his secondary stuff and command. His curveball is his out pitch, a big time downer that has missed bats consistently for him since college, while his changeup also elicits swings and misses and he adds a show-me slider to keep hitters honest. He also has arguably the best command in the system (a title he shares with Jordan Humphreys), which is especially important considering his fringy velocity, and it should enable him to become a #3 or a #4 starter if he can effectively mix his pitches at the next level and keep generating a lot of ground balls.
- Kevin Smith (2020 Age: 22-23): Like Peterson, Smith is a tall lefty, though Smith was a seventh round pick out of Georgia in 2018. He turned a lot of heads in 2019, when he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 130/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. He's become more of a complete pitcher since being drafted, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a good slider, and improving his changeup considerably. His solid command helped it all play up, though he'll probably have to take another step forward with either the stuff or the command if he wants to become a #4 or #5 big league starter. If not, he could be an effective left handed reliever with a touch more velocity.
- Harol Gonzalez (2020 Age: 25): Gonzalez, a previously unheralded prospect who managed to go 1-16 in 2018, had a huge breakout year in 2019 to put himself firmly on the map. This year, he posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 112/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at AA Binghamton and AAA Syracuse, perhaps most impressively holding a 2.68 ERA in the hitter-friendly AAA International League. He doesn't necessarily have swing and miss stuff, sitting a tick above 90 with his fastball and adding a solid bending curveball and a fading changeup, but he commands everything very well and that enabled his breakout. He was a bit homer-happy in 2019, allowing 20 on the year and eight in just 40.1 innings in AAA, which is proof that his unremarkable stuff doesn't give him much margin for error in his command. He probably profiles as a #5 starter or a long reliever, but he'll be ready in 2020.
- Thomas Szapucki (2020 Age: 23-24): Szapucki, the Mets' fifth round pick out of a South Florida high school in 2015, has shown tantalizing stuff when healthy but he's also never cracked 62 innings in a season. In 2019, making his return from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 72/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Class A Columbia, High A St. Lucie, and AA Binghamton. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a wicked curveball that's nearly impossible to square up. He also has a changeup that has looked good at times, but the injuries have slowed its development. The Mets handled him carefully in his return from surgery in 2019 and we'll have to see how they deploy him in 2020, but if he can manage to stay healthy for some long stretches of time, he could be a legitimate #2 or #3 starter. However, he has a lot of work to do and currently projects as more of a #3 or a #4 if he can stay moderately healthy, and a switch to the bullpen is not off the table. The lefty could be especially dominant there with his electric stuff.
- Franklyn Kilome (2020 Age: 24-25): Kilome was acquired from the Phillies for Asdrubal Cabrera in 2018, but he went down with Tommy John surgery seven starts into his Mets minor league career and missed the entire 2019 season. He's a 6'6" righty with a big, mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, though his changeup and command have been inconsistent and it has caused his stuff to play down somewhat. The Mets' hope was that a change of scenery might do him good, and it still may once he comes back hopefully healthy in 2020. More likely, though, is that he shifts to the bullpen and hopefully takes a step forward with his stuff.
- Tony Dibrell (2020 Age: 24): Dibrell, the Mets' fourth round pick out of Kennesaw State in 2017, has moved relatively slowly for an early-round college pitcher, spending his first full season entirely in Class A. He started 2019 at High A St. Lucie, where he was dominant in posting a 2.39 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 76/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings. However, he was not nearly as effective after a promotion to AA Binghamton, where opposing hitters punished his mistakes and he posted a 9.31 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, and a 37/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings. He comes at you with a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, all of which can be effective, though he has been a bit inconsistent with his command. Dibrell gets some added deception due to a late hop in his delivery just before he releases the ball, and if he wants to be a major league starter, he probably a) needs to sharpen one of his offspeed pitches into a true out pitch or b) improve his command a tick.
- Jordan Humphreys (2020 Age: 23-24): Humphreys, an 18th round pick out of high school in the small town of Crystal River, Florida in 2015, put up a 1.79 ERA in A ball in 2017 before going down with Tommy John surgery in 2018, which wiped out his entire season and all but two innings of his 2019 season. It's been a while since we saw the 6'2" right hander pitch in the minors, but we do know the general scouting report. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which particularly stand out as out pitches. However, he has some of the best command in the system (sharing the title with David Peterson), and that makes his stuff play way up. Peterson has the leg up with a plus curveball, but if he can stay healthy, Humphreys has a very good shot to work his way up as a #4 or #5 starter.
- Matthew Allan (2020 Age: 19): Allan may have gone in the third round out of an Orlando-area high school in 2019, but he signed for first round money and there's no doubt he's a first round talent. To be honest, I think he was the best high school pitcher in his class and it wasn't particularly close. Allan sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds two above average secondaries in a curveball and a changeup, both of which have the potential to be plus pitches. His command is fairly advanced for a high school pitcher as well and at 6'3", he has some projection remaining, giving him a great combination of both floor and ceiling for the notably volatile demographic of high school pitcher. If he can stay healthy, Allan has top of the rotation potential and honestly a pretty safe chance to at least be a back-end starter. Assuming health, he should move quickly for a high school pitcher. In his pro debut, he had a 2.61 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Brooklyn.
- Josh Wolf (2020 Age: 19): Wolf was selected a around earlier than Allan, in the second round out of a Houston high school in 2019, though he signed for a few hundred thousand dollars less ($2.5 million to $2.15 million). He's a very skinny 6'3" with some room to add good weight, though his frame is a bit slight and I'm not sure how much he can add. He is, on the other hand, clearly trending in the right direction, as his stuff improved his senior year and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a very good curveball and an improving changeup. His command is inconsistent this point due to the fact that he can occasionally lose his arm slot, but pro refinement should make that a fairly easy fix and he should have above average command in time, giving him a ceiling as a #2 or a #3 starter and a moderately high floor, of course assuming health. In his pro debut, he had a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings in the Gulf Coast League.
- Junior Santos (2020 Age: 18): Santos is 6'8", so before we go any further, there's that. In 2019, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 36/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings at rookie level Kingsport, mediocre numbers on the surface until you realize he was 17 years old for eleven of his fourteen starts. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and should be able to add more velocity, and his secondary pitches are raw but that's expected for a kid his age. He also manages the strike zone very well for a young teenager, so don't let the 25 walks in 40.1 innings fool you. Santos has a ton of upside but also a very low floor, and he could really turn out to be anything so there's no use in projecting him. Instead, he's just one to track.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Gonsalves, Luc Rennie, Christian James, Nathan Jones
Relief Pitching
- Ryley Gilliam (2020 age: 23-24): Fastball/curveball/mediocre command -> go. That's what makes a big league reliever, right? Gilliam is only 5'10", but he can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and adds a great power curveball, and he's carried those two weapons with him up to the top of the minors. He was drafted in the fifth round out of Clemson in 2018, then posted a 6.05 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 56/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings at High A St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Syracuse in 2019, though his numbers were hurt by that run in AAA. Still, his stuff was enough to completely overwhelm High A hitters and he held his own in AA a year out of college, so with a little more seasoning, he has a good chance to crack the Mets bullpen at some point in 2020. The command is mediocre, but the stuff is good enough to work in short stints if he can just figure out how to pitch around that mediocre command (though improving it up to near-average would be helpful).
- Dedniel Nunez (2020 Age: 23-24): Most top Dominican prospects sign when they're 16 or 17, but Nunez but didn't get the chance until he was 20 years old. After a couple of unremarkable seasons to begin his career, he broke out in 2019 with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 94/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie, officially putting himself on the map as an arm to watch. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a rapidly improving curveball, and while he lacks much of a changeup, his command is strong enough to make his stuff play up a bit. He still has an outside chance at starting if he can get that changeup up to average and maybe improve his command just a tick, but he's set to turn 24 in June and the best path forward might be to jump to the bullpen and allow his fastball/curveball combination to play up.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Villines, Joe Cavallaro, Jared Biddy
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