2020 Draft Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

1-18: RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke
CBA-33: RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami
3-90: LHP Liam Norris, Green Hope HS (NC)
4-119: 3B AJ Vukovich, East Troy HS (WI)
5-149: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Bellarmine

The Diamondbacks went for ceiling in this year's draft class, because after first rounder Bryce Jarvis, none of these guys are safe bets. Well, competitive balance pick Slade Cecconi is safe bet to be at least moderately valuable, but he has a fairly wide variance in his potential outcomes and both third rounder Liam Norris and fourth rounder AJ Vukovich are extreme boom/bust types. A year after they added a ton of depth to the system with a boatload of early picks, they could afford to go boom/bust in this draft, and each guy shows a pretty enticing ceiling. Jarvis, of course, is the most famous name after an immaculate redshirt junior season, and he's easily the best right-now product in this class.
Full index of team reviews here.

1-18: RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke (my rank: 35)
The Diamondbacks decided to save money on their first pick, but they'll still get easy first round value. Bryce Jarvis might have had the best 2020 season in the country, and that's no exaggeration. The Nashville-area native was very effective over his first two seasons at Duke (10-3, 3.28 ERA, 161/59 K/BB in 123.1 IP), but he knew he could do better, so he turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019 to return for his junior year. It turned out he was right, because after four starts, Jarvis had a 0.67 ERA, a 0.48 WHIP, and a 40/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 27 innings. That included a 15 strikeout perfect game against Cornell, a near no-hitter against Florida State, and a total of just two earned runs on 15 baserunners combined over his four starts. The difference was in the stuff – after sitting around 90 with his fastball in 2019, Jarvis was comfortably in the mid 90's in 2020 and held that velocity throughout his starts. What were previously decent offspeeds looked like plus pitches in the shortened season, as he can miss bats with his slider, curve, and changeup. The slider is a hard bender with serious bite down in the zone, the newer curve is a bit softer and shows good depth, and the changeup might be the best out of all of them with serious fade to the arm side. There is some concern as to whether he can remain a starter, as he's pretty skinny at 6'2" and pitches with effort, but he repeats his delivery very consistently, throws strikes with all four pitches, and held his velocity deep into games in 2020. He's a year older than the typical college junior and will turn 23 in December, but he should move quickly through the minors and could be a mid rotation starter in the relatively near future. He signed for $2.65 million, which was about $830,000 below slot value. Pre-draft profile here.

CBA-33: RHP Slade Cecconi, Miami (my rank: 34)
15 picks later, the D-Backs grabbed another ACC righty, though Slade Cecconi is a full year and a half younger than Jarvis. A well-known prospect coming out of Trinity Prep High School in the Orlando area in 2018, he got hurt during his senior year and decided to head to Miami instead, where he would be draft-eligible as a sophomore due to his early birthday. The results have been more solid than great, with a 4.09 ERA and a 119/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings between his two seasons, but he's shown enough flashes of greatness that scouts are confident in his upside. Cecconi has a great pitcher's frame at 6'4" and sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball, adding a plus slider and a developing cutter and changeup that he has good feel for. He's usually a good strike thrower, but the problem has been consistency, as some days his velocity dips a little, others its his secondary stuff that doesn't look quite as sharp, and still others where his command can be shaky. The Diamondbacks scouts have obviously looked at him and think he's very, very close to taking a big step forward, because with all three working at their best, he looks like a legitimate impact big league starter. While he's very old for a college sophomore, having turned 21 in June, he'd be on the younger side if he were a junior and is therefore younger than most of the college pitchers in this draft. All together, it's a very nice profile that could take a big step forward very soon. Slot value is $2.20 million, but I'd imagine it might take a little bit more to keep him from heading back to Coral Gables.
Pre-draft profile here.

3-90: LHP Liam Norris, Green Hope HS, NC (my rank: 153)
For the second straight season, the Diamondbacks spent an early pick on a North Carolina prep lefty with projection to dream on. A year after grabbing Blake Walston out of high school in Wilmington with the 26th overall pick, the Snakes went up to the Raleigh suburbs to divert Liam Norris away from a UNC commitment. Norris, like Walston, will be a project. He's been very up and down throughout his closely-watched high school career, but this spring was very much an "up" for him and Arizona is bought in. At his best, Norris sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can touch as high as 96, putting steep downhill plane on the ball that makes it tough to square up. He also shows a big 12-6 curve with tremendous depth, and his more horizontal slider routinely misses bats as well. The changeup is in its rudimentary stages at this point, but that is very forgivable given his age and two breaking balls. What's not as forgivable, though, is his command. Even when he's on, he struggles immensely to find the zone, to the point where he even has trouble getting plain old high school hitters to chase his explosive stuff. Norris struggles to repeat his arm slot and release point, and part of that might owe to his 6'4" size and the fact that he just hasn't quite grown into it yet. The Diamondbacks certainly hope that's the case and that he'll get more coordinated as he gets older, though his August birthday makes him relatively old for a high school senior (and nearly as old as Walston, whose June birthday made him young for last year's draft). Still, as long as his stuff doesn't regress back towards what it looked like over the summer (upper 80's FB, softer secondary stuff), there is a ton of ceiling here. Slot value is $657,600 and I'm not sure what it will take to keep him away from UNC, but the Diamondbacks saved enough with Jarvis that there should be some left over here to go over slot.

4-119: 3B AJ Vukovich, East Troy HS, WI (my rank: 131)
Wisconsin isn't the biggest baseball state in the country, but the Diamondbacks are poised to add a second small town Wisconsinite to the system. Daulton Varsho of Chili (pop. 226) is off to a great start to his pro career, while East Troy (pop. 4,281) native AJ Vukovich is coming in hot from about half an hour southwest of Milwaukee. Vukovich shows tremendous power from the right side, using his 6'5" frame and long, loose arms to create lots of whip and leverage with which to drive the ball deep. However, his hit tool needs significant work, as he swing and missed often on the showcase circuit and it limited his overall production. Even though he's relatively old for the class with a July birthday, the fact that he comes from a cold weather state buys the bat some slack and gives the Diamondbacks hope they can iron him out. Defensively, he shows a very strong arm over at third base, but his overall range is so-so and in an age where shifting has become commonplace, it might be difficult for him to stick there. There is probably a better chance he ends up in right field, left field, or at first base, and if it's one of the latter two, there will be a lot of pressure on his bat. The upside here is 30+ home runs a year,though the risk is very high. Slot value is $483,000, but I imagine it will take significantly more to keep him from heading to Louisville.

5-149: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Bellarmine (unranked)
Brandon Pfaadt's high school and college were less than four miles apart in eastern Louisville, but he'll head across the country now as the Diamondbacks' fifth round selection. He's gotten better and better throughout his career at Bellarmine, dropping his ERA from 6.04 as a freshman to 4.03 as a sophomore before posting a breakout 2020 season: 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 27/4 K/BB in 26 innings. Given that Bellarmine is a Division II school, it wasn't the toughest competition, but he also has a very strong Cape Cod League summer under his belt as well: 2.95 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 37/11 K/BB in 36.2 innings. At his best, Pfaadt runs his fastball into the mid 90's from a very loose, whippy arm, and it's tough to square up because it seems to jump out of his hand. He has feel to spin a good curveball as well, though he's relatively new to starting and there isn't much of a changeup. The key for Pfaadt is consistency, as he hasn't proven he can hold his velocity deep into starts and the breaking ball can regress to below average at times. Pfaadt throws plenty of strikes from a durable 6'3" frame, though his delivery has a lot of moving parts that create deception but might be tougher to repeat deep into games. The Diamondbacks might try to take it slow and develop him as a starter, because he has the talent to do so, but his arm action and fastball/curveball combination could fit really well in a bullpen, where he's pitched for most of his career. Slot value is $360,800, though I imagine he takes a bit of a discount.

Undrafted: OF Danny Oriente, Louisville (unranked)
Brandon Pfaadt isn't the only player the Diamondbacks plucked out of college in Louisville, but Danny Oriente is the only undrafted free agent they've signed so far. Oriente has been a consistent performer in the middle of some stacked Louisville lineups, slashing .324/.400/.420 with three home runs and a 56/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 137 career games. The Chicago-area native doesn't have the world's highest ceiling, instead showing a good feel for the game and broad set of average skills. He's hit over power at the plate, using a simple swing, an all-fields approach, and plus bat to ball skills to make consistent line drive contact. He's also not the fastest guy in the world, but he gets the job done in the outfield. It's a fourth or fifth outfielder profile overall.

2020 Draft Profile: Bryce Jarvis

RHP Bryce Jarvis, Duke
Full index of profiles here

DoB: 12/26/1997.
2020 Stats: 3-1, 0.67 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 40/2 K/BB in 27 innings

You'd be hard pressed to find someone who out-pitched Bryce Jarvis in 2020, no matter where you look. He was pretty good over his first two years at Duke (10-3, 3.29 ERA, 161/59 K/BB), but  relief questions kept him from becoming an elite draft prospect. He turned down the Yankees in the 37th round in 2019, and now he's looking to take a Brent Rooker route to the first round. Jarvis came out of the gate with significantly better velocity in 2020, and after a fairly ordinary start against Army, his last three starts were the best in the amateur baseball world. From February 21st onward, Jarvis went 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA, a 0.35 WHIP, and a 37/1 strikeout to walk ratio. That's 23 innings, one earned run on seven hits, one walk, and 37 strikeouts, including a perfect game against Cornell and a near-perfect game against a strong Florida State lineup. Simply put, Jarvis pitched as well as humanly possible.

Formerly one who sat in the low 90's, Jarvis now has a fastball consistently in the mid 90's that he holds deep into starts. He throws both a slider and a curveball, which can be just a little bit inconsistent, but the slider regularly flashes plus and both should be out pitches at the next level, especially with pro refinement. He adds a changeup with serious armside fade, and when he locates it right, it's nearly impossible to square up. Combine that with improved command that is now playing above average, and you have a big time starting pitching prospect.

On the surface, it's a clear first round profile, but even after dominating college opponents in 2020, he has two small hitches in his profile. One is his age – already 22, he's the age of a college senior rather than a junior, making him a year and a half older than some other college arms like Reid Detmers, Cole Wilcox, and Slade Cecconi, and just a week shy of five years older than second to fourth round prospect Blaze Jordan. The second hitch is durability as a starter, despite the fact that he threw 75.2 innings as a sophomore (104.1 if you count the Cape Cod League) and completed seven innings in each of his final three starts in 2020. He has a pretty slight build at 6'2", and his delivery is relatively high effort, involving heavy tilt-and-go action off the rubber. Still, any durability concerns need to be projected further, because the results themselves have not given any reason for concern.

If the durability questions prove to be nothing more than speculation, Jarvis could be a #2 or #3 starter at the big league level. You have to assume he'll maintain his recent uptick in stuff over more than those four starts at the start of the season, but you just can't argue with the results. That impact starter projection has moved him firmly into the first round conversation, with a good shot at going in either the late first round or the comp round. Ethan Small, who was also 22 on draft day in 2019 after an exceptional run through the SEC, might be a good draft comparison (although not a good player comp), and he went 27th overall to the Brewers.

Near no-hitter vs Florida State in 2020 (CF view)
Strong start vs Purdue in 2020 (home plate view)