Showing posts with label Nolan Schanuel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nolan Schanuel. Show all posts

Sunday, September 3, 2023

2023 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The big story here, of course, is the fact that first round pick Nolan Schanuel reached the majors within just six weeks of being drafted, becoming the fastest position player to the majors since Brian Milner way back in 1978. But there's more to this class than just Schanuel, even if they forfeited their second round pick after signing Tyler Anderson. They searched for complete offensive profiles rather than individual outlier traits (though Schanuel's performance and plate discipline fit the outlier mold), also focusing on bats over defense. They went pitching heavy later in the draft, including for eighth rounder Barrett Kent who marked their second highest bonus of the class at nearly five times his slot value.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.
Note that the number before a player's name indicates their draft position. "2-50" would indicate that a player was drafted in the second round with the fiftieth overall pick.

1-11: 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic {video}
Slot value: $5.25 million. Signing bonus: $5.25 million.
My rank: #25. MLB Pipeline: #26. Baseball America: #30. Prospects Live: #33.
I've been doing draft reviews for five years now, and Nolan Schanuel is the first player ever to reach the majors before I even had a chance to write his draft review. I don't care how aggressive the Angels are with their promotions, that's incredible. But let's pull the clock back a little and pretend he just got drafted, because he did. Schanuel was excellent as a freshman at FAU (.343/.444/.576) and elite as a sophomore (.369/.477/.658), but nothing could have prepared us for the unbelievable season he put up as a junior this spring: 19 home runs, .447/.615/.868, 14 stolen bases, 14/71 strikeout to walk ratio in 59 games. Sure, FAU doesn't play in a traditional power conference, but if you're going to bat .447, get on base in three of every five plate appearances, and walk five times as often as you strike out, you'll make jaws drop. Schanuel does it with an elite approach at the plate that held strong in the Cape Cod League as well, rarely chasing and posting elite contact rates. He sets up with his hands held high before dropping them back to set up a loose, whippy left handed swing. His exit velocities point to above average raw power, though he didn't tap it much with wood bats on the Cape and that's a long term question for the South Florida native. He likely profiles as a high on-base, moderate power bat that can hit in the upper half of a big league lineup for a long time. It's that elite plate discipline that carried him to the majors so quickly, but it's the power development that will make him stay and play a major role. Schanuel is a fringy runner that will be limited to first base or a corner outfield spot, which will put pressure on his bat and especially the power, but he should be up to the task. He flew through the minors, slashing .365/.505/.486 with one home run and a 10/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 22 games across three levels, and now is hitting .273/.429/.295 with more walks (10) than strikeouts (6) in 12 games for the Angels.

3-79: C Alberto Rios, Stanford {video}
Slot value: $901,500. Signing bonus: $847,500 ($54,000 below slot value).
My rank: #125. MLB Pipeline: #113. Baseball America: #155. Prospects Live: #131.
There's coming out of nowhere, then there's Alberto Rios. He played just eight games total in his first two seasons at Stanford, all as a pinch hitter, and went 0-7 with a pair of strikeouts and a walk. Heading into 2023, he was about the farthest thing on Stanford's roster from a prospect, but that all changed after a monstrous junior season in which he slashed .384/.485/.707 with 18 home runs and a 42/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games. A native of Bellflower and a product of local St. John Bosco High School about halfway between Angel Stadium and Dodger Stadium, his 2023 got even sweeter when he was drafted by his hometown Angels. Rios has a strong, compact frame that helps him naturally produce above average power from a quick right handed swing, power which he tapped consistently in games this past spring. It's nothing explosive, but his feel for the barrel should enable him to hit 20 home runs or more per season at peak. He's also a disciplined, professional hitter that makes a lot of contact and limits his strikeouts, making for a pretty complete offensive profile. There are more question marks about his defense. Drafted as a catcher, he doesn't have a ton of high level experience there but could be up to the task with solid glovework and a decent arm. If he can stick behind the plate, the bat suddenly looks very potent and it could lead to an every day role. If he's forced back to left field, where he saw most of his time with Stanford, his fringy speed will make him a below average defender and put a lot more pressure on that bat. The Angels are buying into all of it by selecting him higher than most expected, loving the direction his game is trending, his balanced offensive profile, and potentially even his ability to catch. We're still waiting for his bat to get going in pro ball, as he's slashing just .174/.271/.306 with three home runs and a 32/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 32 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Inland Empire.

4-111: OF Joe Redfield, Sam Houston State {video}
Slot value: $603,600. Signing bonus: $472,500 ($131,100 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #264.
Joe Redfield is a bit of an off the radar pick for the fourth round, as most scouts viewed him as more of a late day two/day three type, but his dynamic skill set makes him a fun profile for the Angels to work with here in the fourth round. He began his career at Temple JC in Central Texas, then transferred to Sam Houston State and posted a huge junior season, slashing .398/.474/.672 with 14 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 37/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games. Setting up from a wide stance, Redfield has a linear swing and likes to lash line drives around the field with his extremely accurate barrel. After combining for five home runs out of 27 total extra base hits over his two years and 88 games at Temple, he began turning on the ball more often at Sam Houston State and crushed 14 home runs out of 36 extra base hits in just 59 games this past spring. Wiry at 6'2", he could potentially tack on additional strength as he fills out, though his game and swing are more geared towards a hit over power profile. The Waco native is a plus runner as well, which augments his offensive profile nicely, and could help him stick in center field long term. If he can learn to tap more power, it could be an every day profile, though it's more likely a fourth outfield profile long term that can provide impact in a lot of ways. So far, he's slashing .300/.400/.567 with one home run and a 1/3 strikeout to walk ratio through eight games between the Arizona Complex League and High A Tri-City.

5-147: RHP Chris Clark, Harvard {video}
Slot value: $425,100. Signing bonus: $318,825 ($106,275 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: #471. Prospects Live: unranked.
This is another surprise pick of a player who many thought would last until day three. Chris Clark coming off an up and down junior season in which he posted a 4.93 ERA and a 93/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 65.2 innings, though he comes in with interesting upside. He's a great athlete with plenty of arm strength, getting down the mound well with an elastic delivery and some projection in his 6'4" frame. He sits in the low to mid 90's and touches 97 at best, though the fastball can get fairly straight. His slider is inconsistent and shows varying shape, while he could stand to gain a little more feel for his changeup, so the Angels will want to work with him there. A recently added cutter is paying dividends and at this point is his most consistent offspeed pitch. Clark's command is also inconsistent, though his athleticism could help him throw more strikes as he continues to develop. Together, it makes for a profile that can be difficult to project. One one hand, the arm strength and athleticism are hard to teach, while on the other hand, his offspeeds and command could develop in any number of directions. The Philadelphia-area native could be a starter or a reliever for that reason, depending on, well, everything. So far, he has a 6.00 ERA and a 17/4 strikeout to walk ratio through 15 innings at Low A Inland Empire.

6-174: RHP Camden Minacci, Wake Forest {video}
Slot value: $331,000. Signing bonus: $328,500 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: #138. MLB Pipeline: #160. Baseball America: #137. Prospects Live: #145.
This is your classic high energy college reliever profile. It was easy to get buried on Wake Forest's deep pitching staff, but he carved out a role as the team's closer and posted a 2.78 ERA and a 46/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 32.1 innings. He's a high octane guy, sitting in the mid 90's and touching as high as 99 with life that can be very tough to catch up to. His power slider looks like a true plus pitch with late bite, and together with his fastball it's a deadly two pitch mix. At this point, it looks like a pure reliever profile due to a lack of a changeup as well as the fact that he never threw more than two innings in any appearance in 2023, though the Angels could run him out as a starter if they really wanted to get creative. That would require developing a changeup for him as well as building up his stamina, but Minacci does have a strong 6'3" frame and has shown solid command in his short stints. Should he remain in the bullpen, his high energy, competitive demeanor will fit right in and he should move quickly. He's been hittable so far, with a 5.40 ERA and a 10/1 strikeout to walk ratio through 8.1 innings at Low A Inland Empire.

7-204: 3B Cole Fontenelle, Texas Christian {video}
Slot value: $258,900. Signing bonus: $256,400 ($2,500 below slot value).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: #298.
Cole Fontenelle began his career at Washington, but didn't play much and transferred to JuCo powerhouse McLennan for his sophomore season, where he competed against Joe Redfield on the Texas JuCo circuit. A huge performance landed him at TCU, where he continued to rake to the tune of 14 home runs, a .352/.473/.639 slash line, and a 50/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 games. Standing 6'3", he's a big guy with above average power that plays effectively to all fields. He's a switch hitter that can tap his power from both sides of the plate, really coming into his own late in the season and pushing himself up draft boards. Fontenelle works a lot of deep counts and draws a lot of walks, though he can get himself into trouble there because he's a fringy pure hitter and doesn't have the quickest bat. For what it's worth, he does show a pretty adjustable barrel and can get to balls all over the zone, but we'll see how that plays against more advanced pitching. Defensively, his average speed limits his upside, but he has shown well at a few positions and has a chance to stick at third base with a little more refinement, so long as he doesn't slow down with age. That would help get the bat into the lineup more often in the big leagues, as he might not carry quite enough impact to cut it as a first base/left field type. So far, he's slashing .241/.327/.368 with three home runs and a 36/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games between the Arizona Complex League and Low A Inland Empire.

8-234: RHP Barrett Kent, Pottsboro HS [TX] {video}
Slot value: $206,500. Signing bonus: $997,500 ($791,000 above slot value).
My rank: #115. MLB Pipeline: #126. Baseball America: #104. Prospects Live: #75.
As it turns out, the second largest bonus the Angels handed out this year went to their eighth round pick, similar to what they did with 2022 eleventh rounder Caden Dana and 2021 twelfth rounder Mason Albright, both also high school pitchers. Barrett Kent signed for nearly a million dollars here in the eighth round, early third round money, to steer away from an Arkansas commitment. He had an up and down spring, but he's a very interesting prospect that has a chance to become a mid-rotation starter. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball but can dial it up to 97 at peak, showing some running life in the process to generate ground ball contact. The slider has fringy movement, but it plays up because he has great feel to command it and deploy it effectively, so it evens out to an average pitch. His curveball and changeup aren't used as much but could become average pitches. He has an athletic, repeatable delivery from a sturdy 6'4" frame, so it doesn't get much more ideal on that front. The command has been inconsistent but there are times when it looks above average, and usually it's nothing worse than fringy. The North Texas native has the chance to develop into a workhorse mid-rotation starter, though to get there the Angels will need to find a way to help him miss bats, either by sharpening his slider or finding a fastball variant with more life. Personally I think he has what it takes to get there. He tossed 4.2 shutout innings in the Arizona Complex League, striking out five while walking three along the way.

11-324: SS John Wimmer, Rock Hill HS [SC] {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $397,500 ($247,500 against bonus pool).
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
John Wimmer is certainly an under the radar prospect, having gone unranked on most major boards and holding a commitment to The Citadel, who typically doesn't lose signees to the draft. He gets nearly $400,000 here, the fifth largest bonus of any Angels draftee this year and fitting in as a fifth round slot valuation. A skinny kid last summer, he has steadily filled out his 6'1" frame and looked more physical this spring, helping create more impact behind his already whippy, explosive right handed swing. It's a visually appealing swing that will be conducive to continued added power as he gets stronger. He's an above average runner, though I haven't seen or heard anything about his defense so I can't speak to that. For what it's worth, he's played exclusively shortstop so far in his pro career. In nine games in the Arizona Complex League, he slashed .161/.206/.226 with a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio, so he hasn't quite found his footing.

14-414: RHP Zach Joyce, Tennessee {video}
Slot value: up to $150,000. Signing bonus: $150,000.
My rank: unranked. MLB Pipeline: unranked. Baseball America: unranked. Prospects Live: unranked.
The Angels already have brothers Casey and Caden Dana in the system, so now they'll load up with twin brothers Ben and Zach Joyce as well. Zach, like his brother, began his college career at Walters State JC before transferring to Tennessee, though his career has gone a bit differently. After missing the 2020 season with Tommy John surgery, he stepped away from the game for mental health reasons in 2021 and missed the next two years as well, returning in 2023 to join the Volunteer bullpen. In limited action, he posted a 4.35 ERA and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings, impressing the Angels along the way in his first action in four years. Joyce sits in the mid 90's with his explosive fastball and can approach triple digits, with plenty of life to make it a nightmare for opponents. He also shows a hard bullet slider and a splitter with nasty fade, making for electric stuff. He pounded the strike zone in his small sample size in 2023, but after so much time away from the game and very little track record since returning, it's hard to be confident in the command. The 6'4" righty does throw with effort, but like his brother is an exceptional athlete that turns his body into a whip and gets down the mound well. It's a pure relief profile. Joyce will turn 23 about two months after the draft, but he's just getting started and could join his brother in the big league bullpen. So far, he has a 3.12 ERA and a 9/3 strikeout to walk ratio through 8.2 innings at Low A Inland Empire.

Monday, April 10, 2023

2023 MLB Draft: an updated look at the Nationals' #2 Pick

Before the season started, I explored ten options for the Nationals with the second overall pick while also taking a look at their recent draft history. A few months later, the picture remains fairly similar, but with the draft fast approaching in three months, we can start to feel a little more comfortable predicting those names. 

At this point, I would put about six names firmly in the mix - a quartet of SEC stars and a pair of high school outfielders. Of course, things can and will change between now and July, but if the draft were today, I would give it a ~90% shot that the pick is one of these six names. There's always the chance they could go under slot and save money to spend later, but given the fact that they won't be able to pick higher than tenth next season, plus their history of usually paying at least full slot in the first round, I doubt it. Let's take a look at those six names.

Number next to every player indicates their rank on my most recent draft board update.

OF Dylan Crews, Louisiana State (#1)
Dylan Crews entered the season as more or less the top prospect in the class, and he's only cemented it so far this spring by slashing .510/.645/.882 through 31 games (yes, you read that right). It will be very, very difficult for the Pirates to pass up his generational bat with the first overall pick, but if they do, the Nationals should be all over him. Crews hits the ball harder than anybody in college baseball, spraying scorching line drives around the the field with incredible consistency, giving him potential 70 grade power in pro ball. Additionally, he's taken a step forward this spring as a pure hitter, controlling the strike zone with a professional approach and rarely missing on pitches in the zone. On the rare occasions in which he does, he makes great adjustments throughout his at bats and won't get fooled twice, which keeps the strikeouts way down. He hammers velocity, recognizes and waits back on offspeed, and is more or less impossible to get out. While his bat stands out more than his glove, he's a solid defender that has shown well in center field this spring and would fit well in a corner with that deep crop of young outfielders the Nationals possess. He should fly through the minors and could be in Washington by the end of the 2024 season with the potential for 30+ home runs annually and .400+ on-base percentages.

OF Wyatt Langford, Florida (#2)
While they're built differently as athletes and get to their production in different ways, the end result for Wyatt Langford is starkly similar to Crews and would make for a great consolation prize if the Pirates do indeed nab the LSU outfielder. After barely playing as a freshman, he has torn up the SEC over the past two seasons with huge numbers and shows no sign of slowing down now that he's back from a lower body injury that cost him a couple weeks in March. Like Crews, Langford shows plus-plus raw power from the right side and taps it consistently in games, though Crews gets to his peak exit velocities a little more frequently. Which of course is no knock on Langford, and more just another example of how elite Crews is. While Crews is whippier and more rotational in the box, Langford's power comes more from pure strength and leverage. Like Crews, he has great feel for the barrel and controls his at bats extremely well, rarely chasing and forcing pitchers to come to him. It's a plus hit tool that could help him tap 30+ home runs annually while getting on base at a high clip, hitting in the middle of the order. He also has a similar defensive profile to Crews, sliding over to center field this year now that the elite Jud Fabian is gone to the Orioles' system. He's a surprisingly strong runner for his size and might have a better shot to stick in center than Crews, though Crews has a better arm and would provide more value in a corner.

RHP Paul Skenes, Louisiana State (#4)
At this point, Paul Skenes feels like the most likely pick here as an elite, safe bet, high ceiling college arm with a traditional profile. He has consistently gotten better and better and better and now looks like a potential generational talent on the mound. In fact, if pitchers weren't so inherently risky nowadays, I would have him as the #2 prospect on this list. A transfer from Air Force, he has turned himself into a monster on the mound for LSU and through eight starts he has a 1.14 ERA and a 91/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 47.1 innings, good for a 52.9% strikeout rate. To put that in perspective, the highest strikeout rate of any college pitcher taken in the first round last year was Cooper Hjerpe's 39.6% - and his 161 strikeouts led all of Division I. He does it with a fastball that now sits in the upper 90's and has reached as high as 102, and he can run it or let it ride depending on the situation but usually opts for the former. Skenes' slider has taken a massive step forward this season as well, adding significant sweep while maintaining its hard upper 80's velocity. It's a pitch that could strike out major league hitters today. This spring, he's also shown feel to work it into more of a power curve with short, vertical bite. His changeup has long been a star pitch as well and profiles as plus with great fading action, but he's gone more to the slider this spring because, well, nobody can hit it no matter how much he throws it. With a big, durable frame, above average command, and that service academy work ethic, he seems like as safe a bet as you can get from a pitcher. I would have a really, really hard time seeing Mike Rizzo pass on Paul Skenes if he's available at the second overall pick.

RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee (#5)
Paul Skenes has taken a massive step forward this spring. Crews and Langford also look like better hitters than they were a year ago, and that's saying something considering the kind of 2022 seasons they had. Meanwhile, Chase Dollander is the only player in this quartet to take a step backwards this season, but he remains an elite prospect. After posting a 2.39 ERA and a 4.2% walk rate last year, he's up to a a 4.19 ERA and a 7.7% walk rate this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady around 35%. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and runs it up to 98, and while last year it showed explosive riding action that made it a plus-plus pitch, it has played more as straight plus this spring with moderate riding life. He still snaps off a nasty, plus slider with hard sweeping action, while also flipping in a more traditional curveball and changeup. He's a very good athlete on the mound that gets great extension to help his pitches play up further, with above average command to both sides of the plate even as he's taken a slight step backwards in that regard. It's still a profile with four average or better pitches, two of which are plus, and above average command from an athletic, durable frame, with plenty of upside especially if he recaptures his 2022 magic. He has every bit as much of a chance to be an ace as Paul Skenes, with potentially a little more variance in the profile. At this point, he's trending in the wrong direction and Mike Rizzo probably prefers Skenes at this point at second overall, but if he gets hot down the stretch, he'll certainly be in play.

OF Max Clark, Franklin Community HS [TX] (#3)
Playing in colder weather in central Indiana, Max Clark just got going recently, so there's not much to update on since the preseason writeup. He's still a potential five tool player with an extremely projectable frame and the ability to impact the game in a wide variety of ways. Previously more of a line drive, gap to gap hitter that let his power come naturally, he is showing a little bit more loft in his swing this spring that could help him tap additional power as he grows into it. And he'll certainly grow into it, with a very projectable 6'1" frame and natural leverage in his left handed swing. Given his prodigious hit tool, which has him taking great at bats against high level pitching, recognizing spin, and using the whole field with ease, I don't think this added loft will cause any level of concerning swing and miss. Looking at current Nationals outfielders, he's not quite as big as James Wood or Elijah Green and will never have quite as much power, but he's a better pure hitter than both and has the speed to stick in center field. He's a prime candidate to progress naturally and get steadily better as he rises through the system, and he may not require as much patience as the average prep because of how advanced he is right now. I haven't heard his name thrown around as much for the Nationals but I would be thrilled if he was the pick. He's committed to Vanderbilt and will not come cheap.

OF Walker Jenkins, South Brunswick HS [NC] (#6)
As with Max Clark, we don't have a huge sample size for Walker Jenkins quite yet but he has been going a little longer in coastal North Carolina. And in the early going, the returns have been very impressive. Impressive enough that the Nationals draft a high school bat in the first round for the third year in a row, and a high school outfielder for the second year in a row? It's tough to say, but it's a good problem to have. Jenkins has more power than Clark and is probably more similar to Wyatt Langford as a prospect, though he has the advantage of batting left handed. It's comfortably plus raw power that he taps in games from a very strong 6'3" frame, a "big league body" as they say, and natural loft and leverage in his left handed swing. He never needs to sell out for home runs, which has helped him grow as a pure hitter as well with a disciplined approach and improving pitch recognition. The pure hit tool is still probably a bit behind that of Langford, Clark, and Dylan Crews, but he's also the youngest player in this set of six and he has had no problem with advanced pitching wherever he has gone. Jenkins has been dinged up by injuries at times in the past, but he's fully healthy now and that shouldn't be an issue. He profiles similar to Crews as a defender, with some speed and a strong arm that will make him an asset in right field. At this point, the Nationals will probably lean on the SEC track record of Crews or Langford if they're going to draft a bat, but Jenkins' combination of youth, physicality, and performance would be tough to pass up if perhaps they wanted to cut a deal. He is committed to North Carolina.

Friday, December 2, 2022

2023 MLB Draft: an early look at low and mid-majors (east)

2022 draftees: 95. Top school: Southern Miss (5).
2022 preseason writeup (published 11/1/2021)

Top draftees:
1-13, Angels: SS Zach Neto (Campbell)
1-16, Guardians: OF Chase DeLauter (James Madison)
1-27, Brewers: SS Eric Brown (Coastal Carolina)
1-30, Giants: LHP Reggie Crawford (Connecticut)
CBA-36, Pirates: RHP Thomas Harrington (Campbell)
2-58, Mariners: 3B Tyler Locklear (Virginia Commonwealth)
2-66, Giants: LHP Carson Whisenhunt (East Carolina)

This article will focus on the Division I programs outside of the traditional Power Five conferences east of the Mississippi River, but programs like ECU, Central Michigan, Coastal Carolina, Campbell, and Southern Miss, among many others, ensure that we're still talking about a very high level of play perhaps even higher than the Big Ten in some conferences. Southern Miss, for its part, led the programs in this category with five draftees a year ago, more than any team in the Big Ten, and returns another big name on this list in Tanner Hall even with likely first round pick Hurston Waldrep transferring to Florida.

The name Hurston Waldrep actually brings out an interesting factor. Now in the transfer era, it's only natural that the best players at smaller programs want to transfer to larger programs, and if there's a spot open, why shouldn't they? What that means for this list, though, is that there was a small exodus of talent to other lists – Waldrep from Southern Miss to Florida and Colton Ledbetter from Samford to Auburn as far as my previous lists go, plus Carter Trice from Old Dominion to NC State that just missed the ACC list. So that's at least three players that would have made this list that are instead trying their hands in the SEC and ACC. But that doesn't mean it's slim pickings around the Sun Belt, American, Big South, and elsewhere. No one school put multiple names on this list, but Southern Miss would have if they held on to Waldrep. A year ago, five different players from eastern mid major programs went in the first 36 picks – we'll have to see who emerges to make that happen again this year, but that's usually the case with the smaller schools. There are a lot of late bloomers here.

One more interesting theme: In an era where players often travel across the country to play college ball, nine of the ten players on this list stayed in their home state for college ball, and the only one to cross state lines, Tanner Hall of Southern Miss, still stayed within three hours of his hometown in Louisiana. Additionally, in an era where from personal experience I feel like I have seen many players who were on the older side for the class, each of the top nine players on this list will still be 20 years old at the end of January. And with four players who will still be 20 at the start of May, youth is certainly a theme.

1. RHP Cade Kuehler, Campbell.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6', 205 lbs. Born 5/24/2002. Hometown: Waxhaw, NC.
2022: 4-6, 4.07 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 111/38 K/BB in 84 innings.
Last year, Zach Neto was the first mid major player drafted from the eastern half of the country, and Campbell enters the 2023 season with the favorite to do it again in Cade Kuehler. He hasn't posted loud numbers yet for the Fighting Camels, but the stuff is certainly loud and he has a chance to take a big step forward this spring. His fastball sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's, getting up to 96-97 with ease during his starts, but he has hit as high as 99 in shorter stints. Beyond the plus velocity, he gets explosive riding life on the pitch despite an unremarkable release point, so it can really perform when it's commanded. The fastball steals the show for now, but Kuehler also brings in a full arsenal of secondaries working in a short, hard slider, a bigger curveball, and a changeup. The slider is probably his best secondary for now, but the deep arsenal is strong throughout and he can consistently steal strikes with any of them. Further helping his profile is his delivery, in which he turns back towards second base and shows his back to the hitter before unfurling and firing towards the plate. For now, it does impact his command and that is likely the culprit for his unremarkable numbers (though you do love to see the 31.2% strikeout rate), but he's young for a college junior with a May birthday and has plenty of time to figure things out. If he can better keep his delivery in sync through that long trunk rotation, it's an easy first round profile given the stuff. Ironing out that command will also help stave off reliever questions, which aren't present yet but may arise due to his shorter stature and exaggerated delivery.

2. 1B Nolan Schanuel, Florida Atlantic.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/14/2002. Hometown: Boynton Beach, FL.
2022: 16 HR, .369/.477/.658, 11 SB, 22/39 K/BB in 58 games.
Unlike Cade Kuehler, Nolan Schanuel's numbers do indeed pop off the page. He's been an absolute force since arriving in Boca Raton just up the road from his hometown of Boynton Beach, slashing .357/.462/.619 with 27 home runs and more than twice as many walks and HBP's (89) as strikeouts (43) over his two seasons. Unfortunately those numbers did not carry over to the Cape Cod League, where he went up against better pitching with wood bats and slashed just .211/.356/.324 in 41 games. Schanuel has an elite approach at the plate with strong feel for the barrel, and even as he struggled to make an impact on the Cape, he still walked more (15.8%) than he struck out (15.3%), a very impressive feat in that league. Maintaining that elite ability to control the zone even when jumping from Conference USA to the Cape speaks volumes to the hit tool, and it should make evaluators very comfortable that he will be completely unfazed by higher level pitching in pro ball. And with FAU, you couldn't ask for better production. He holds his hands high in his stance, dropping them down in his load before throwing them through the zone with a loose, accurate barrel. He has worked to get stronger and he jumped from 23 extra base hits as a freshman to 33 as a sophomore, though he had just nine on the Cape and his ability to tap more than average power is a big question given his defensive limitations. He has played mostly first base at FAU, though he has experience in the outfield corners and he has enough speed to make it work out there if he doesn't slow down with age. Hit over power first base profiles aren't all that common, though this draft has three famous names on the college side in Schanuel, LSU's Tre' Morgan, and Oregon State's Garret Forrester that fit that profile. If he can bulk up a little more with that 6'3" frame, he does have the swing and feel for the barrel to tap 20+ home run power at his ceiling. For now, he profiles for high on-base percentages and 15-20 home runs a year as a median projection.

3. RHP Tanner Hall, Southern Miss.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'1", 185 lbs. Born 3/18/2002. Hometown: Zachary, LA.
2022: 9-3, 2.81 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 146/14 K/BB in 109 innings.
A year ago, Tanner Hall and Hurston Waldrep formed the best 1-2 punch of underclass pitchers in the country. Waldrep transferred to Florida, and while he is the better prospect of the two, Hall actually outpitched him last year. His 146 strikeouts were fourth in the country last year (Waldrep's 140 were eighth), and if you take the top 35 on the NCAA Division I strikeout leaderboard, he and Astros fourth round pick Trey Dombroski (120 strikeouts) tied for the fewest walks at 14. Hall has a solid three pitch mix, starting with a fastball around 90 with run and sink that helps it play above its average velocity. His slider is an above average pitch with sweeping action across the plate, while his changeup is above average in its own right with drop. Everything plays way up, of course, because of his plus command that helps him pick hitters apart while executing on that three pitch mix. He also hides the ball well, which combined with his command and the movement he gets on his pitches from a low three quarters arm slot, makes for an extremely tough at bat for hitters. It's the kind of profile the Guardians could turn into a big league ace, and if he adds a tick or two of velocity to get more comfortably into the low 90's, we have a very intriguing top two rounds prospect. Until he adds that velocity, he may fit better towards the back of the second/early third round range. He'll be one to watch closely now that he'll own the spotlight on the mound in Hattiesburg.

4. C Michael Carico, Davidson.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6', 190 lbs. Born 9/4/2002. Hometown: Kernersville, NC.
2022: 21 HR, .406/.559/.843, 3 SB, 35/46 K/BB in 54 games.
I mentioned that Nolan Schanuel has posted incredible numbers at FAU, but Michael Carico's numbers at Davidson make Schanuel's look like child's play. Lightly recruited out of high school, he didn't make much of an impact as a freshman but exploded as a sophomore for one of the craziest stat lines in the country. His .559 on-base percentage led all of Division I, while his .843 slugging percentage was third and his .406 batting average finished eighth. In terms of production, it doesn't get any better than that. Like Schanuel, he brings elite plate discipline and rarely chases, allowing him to consistently find good pitches to hit. When Carico does get his pitch, he never misses it, punishing those mistakes at an elite level. His elite feel for the barrel from a controlled, leveraged left handed swing helps him tap above average power in games, setting the Davidson home run record this past spring. If there is one hole in his offensive game, it's that he's not quite proven against higher level pitching. Just eleven of his 54 games came against teams that made the NCAA Tournament, none of which placed better than a #3 seed, though to be fair he did hit .413/.500/.826 with five home runs and a 9/5 strikeout to walk ratio over those elven games. But ultimately, it was a very weak schedule if four games against VCU represents far and away your toughest test. He did go on to play in the Northwoods League over the summer, which isn't quite the Cape Cod League but still features strong competition, and he hit .263/.482/.447 over 24 games there. Ultimately, I believe his elite discipline at the plate will help him make that jump from the Atlantic 10 Conference to pro ball, but it is a jump, more so than Schanuel's jump from the C-USA. Defensively, the Piedmont Triad native is more athletic than most catchers and has a very good chance to stick back there, which would buy even more time for his bat to transition up. Lastly, Carico is also very young for the class, not turning 21 for more than a month after the draft and checking in younger than a few members of the 2024 college draft class.

5. OF Drew Brutcher, South Florida.
Bat: L. Throw: R. 6'5", 205 lbs. Born 2/12/2002. Hometown: Lakeland, FL.
2022: 13 HR, .299/.447/.610, 1 SB, 60/37 K/BB in 43 games.
Drew Brutcher brings with him shades of Aaron Judge and Spencer Jones, but he's left handed. A career .297/.436/.582 hitter with 21 home runs in 75 games over two seasons in Tampa, he has been one of the better hitters in the AAC despite missing time in both seasons with injuries. He carried that success over to the Cape Cod League as well, where he slashed .270/.355/.409 with three home runs in 40 games. Brutcher is immensely talented, standing 6'5" with as much physical upside as any player in the class. The ball really jumps off his bat, coming in with a loose, leveraged left handed swing that helps him get to balls all over the zone and exert plus power. He also brings a very patient approach at the plate, helping him run an 18.6% walk rate at USF last year and 9.7% on the Cape, but his pure bat to ball and pitch recognition skills aren't quite there yet even with the adjustability in his swing. That's led to very elevated strikeout rates, including 30.2% at USF last year and 29.7% on the Cape, both well above where he needs to be. The good news is that between his power, adjustable swing, and patience at the plate, he already has most of the building blocks he needs to become an impact hitter. Taller hitters sometimes take longer to cut down on the swing and miss, and 2023 will be about recognizing pitches better in order to put it all together. The elevated strikeout rates have clearly not hurt his production yet. Defensively, he's a solid runner with a good arm that can play all over the outfield, though he may end up being pushed off center field as he slows down with age. It's an interesting sleeper profile that could break out into one for the top two rounds if he puts it together.

6. RHP Jay Driver, Harvard.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'3", 195 lbs. Born 2/25/2002. Hometown: Wellesley, MA.
2022: 1-1, 1.91 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 45/13 K/BB in 28.1 innings.
Jay Driver comes to us with very limited track record, as the Ivy League's absurd COVID policies robbed him of his freshman season and he made just fifteen relief appearances as a sophomore. However, he opened a lot of eyes in those 28.1 innings and further made a name for himself on the Cape last summer, where he posted a 4.85 ERA but ran a very strong 48/10 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 innings, some even as a starter. That has him in position to become the Ivy League's first top five round pick since Yale's Rohan Handa went to the Giants in 2021, their first top four round pick since Cornell's Brent Jones went to the Diamondbacks in 2014, or even the first top three round pick since Princeton's David Hale went to the Braves way back in 2009. Driver sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97 in short stints, getting plenty of sink and run on the pitch from a sidearm slot. His sweeping slider flashes plus and can make hitters look foolish, helping him run up a 39.5% strikeout rate at Harvard and a 38.1% rate on the Cape, while his fading changeup gives him a third weapon. It's a really strong three pitch mix from an unusual arm angle that misses bats in bunches, and while his command is probably fringy for now, the stuff has still been enough to overwhelm Ivy League hitters and keep Cape Cod League hitters at bay. The 6'3" righty has a projectable, athletic frame and did see four starts on the Cape after pitching exclusively in relief for Harvard, but he hasn't been stretched out in that role consistently yet and it's unknown how the stuff and command will hold up over longer stretches. It's probably a bullpen profile, but it's one of my favorites in the class and one to keep a close eye on this spring.

7. RHP Trey Gibson, Liberty.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 230 lbs. Born 5/18/2002. Hometown: Yorktown, VA.
2022: 3-5, 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 72/30 K/BB in 56 innings.
Trey Gibson established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the A-Sun as a freshman, when he put up a 3.32 ERA and a 70/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 65 innings, but he took a step backward as a sophomore when his walk rate jumped from 7.9% to 11.2% and his ERA more than doubled. Still, the size, arm strength, and deep arsenal have plenty of scouts interested. Gibson sits in the low 90's with his fastball with the ability to reach back for a little more, though it's a fairly generic pitch movement-wise. He stands out for a big, deep curveball that misses a lot of bats, adding in a sweepier slider and a solid changeup to make for a quality four pitch mix. That, combined with the big, physical, 6'5" frame, has many scouts believing in his upside as a #4 starter in the big leagues. To get there, though, he'll have to improve his strike throwing, as his longer arm action leaves him with inconsistent command of both his fastball and his offspeed stuff. He has quality stuff, especially the curveball, but it's not quite explosive enough to make up for being left over the plate or falling behind in the count, leading to that 6.75 ERA a year ago. He is young, only turning 21 a couple months before the draft, and that does help his case when it comes to putting everything together, but it still needs to happen. He figures to go somewhere in the middle of day two right now.

8. OF Jake Cunningham, Charlotte.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 205 lbs. Born 7/3/2002. Hometown: Charlotte, NC.
2022: 16 HR, .304/.410/.595, 16 SB, 69/38 K/BB in 57 games.
Jake Cunningham brings some similarities to Drew Brutcher a couple spots above him on this list. Besides playing for a green and gold team in or coming to the AAC, he's a lanky, toolsy outfielder with hit tool questions coming off a big season. Cunningham didn't hit much as a freshman, but broke out for a huge sophomore season that earned him a spot in the Cape Cod League over the summer. He struggled there in a brief, seven game sample (.174/.269/.217), but he is firmly on area scouts' radars now. The Charlotte native takes big hacks from the right side, helping him generate above average power that he taps in games and which may become plus as he fills out. Cunningham shows strong pitch recognition skills that helps him get good pitches to hit, but that longer swing can lead to some swing and miss and he struck out in over a quarter of his plate appearances last spring. As I mentioned with Brutcher, that can be natural for taller young hitters and many outgrow it in time. The fact that Cunningham is very young for his class, only turning 21 shortly before the draft, adds to that upside. He's also an above average runner with a chance to play center field in the long run, though also like Brutcher, a better defender could push him to right field where he would be above average. Aside from the pure bat to ball skills, it's a very well rounded profile that has already become a problem for opposing pitchers in the C-USA.

9. RHP William Privette, College of Charleston.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'5", 210 lbs. Born 2/1/2002. Hometown: Chapin, SC.
2022: 3-1, 0.91 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 80/15 K/BB in 59.1 innings.
College of Charleston was quietly a very solid team last year, winning the CAA regular season title at 19-5 in conference on their way to a 37-20 finish. A big reason for that success was their closer, William Privette, who is looking to be the first Cougar drafted in the top five rounds since Taylor Clarke and Carl Wise went in the third and fourth round, respectively, in 2015. In fact, Charleston hasn't had a player drafted at all since three Cougars heard their names called in 2019, so Privette is a very exciting development for the program. He dominated CAA hitters with a 0.91 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP, while recording nearly twice as many strikeouts (80) as baserunners allowed (49). He carried that success on to the Cape Cod League, where he made six relief appearances and posted a 1.74 ERA and a 13/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings. Privette won't light up the radar gun, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball and adding a solid breaking ball that plays well off the heater. It all plays up, though, for a variety of reasons. Despite longer arm action, the 6'5" righty manages to keep everything in sync and shows above average control, helping him stay ahead in the count and keep his pitches closer to the zones where they'll play better. He also shows heavy trunk tilt that helps him create a very vertical release point closer to the first base side of the rubber than you would expect from a right hander, and it works with his setup as he pitches from the first base side already. He also gets some sneaky life on his fastball up in the zone, and together, it's a great relief profile that provides a fairly unique look. It will be interesting to see if Charleston runs him out as a starter at any point, but he has been so successful in a relief role that they may not want to mess with it. With two quality pitches, good command, a big frame, a unique look, and a track record of performance, he checks a lot of boxes for a college reliever.

10. RHP Eriq Swan, Middle Tennessee State.
Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'6", 240 lbs. Born 10/31/2001. Hometown: Murfreesboro, TN.
2022: 2-6, 7.62 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 44/31 K/BB in 52 innings.
Eriq Swan gives us a second big right handed reliever in a row, but he is virtually the opposite of William Privette as a prospect. Swan showed well in a small sample as a freshman at Middle Tennessee State, but really struggled as a sophomore when he allowed more than a run per inning and ran just a 17.2% strikeout rate to a 12.1% walk rate. He earned three early season appearances in the Cape Cod League over the summer and showed extremely well, tossing eight shutout innings while allowing just four hits and one walk mixed in with eleven strikeouts. It was all punctuated in his final appearance, when he struck out eight of the eleven Falmouth batters he faced on June 25th including Drew Brutcher on this list and possible top ten pick Brayden Taylor of TCU. Swan is a fireballer, sitting comfortably in the mid 90's as a starter and running it as high as 99 in short stints, all with a fairly effortless delivery from a huge 6'6" frame. He also drops in a a solid slider with great depth, though it does need too add power to miss pro bats, and shows feel for a solid changeup as well. To this point, he has not missed many bats at MTSU and looks like he would fit much better in relief, as his command is better in short spurts and it's easier for him to maintain his stuff. College starters who transition to relief work in pro ball often fare better than those who were already pure relievers when they were drafted, and if his short Cape run is any indication, Swan could be a sleeper to benefit from such a move with his power fastball and two quality offspeeds.