Once completely barren, the Diamondbacks farm system has undergone a very impressive makeover, and there are a couple factors to credit. One was improved results from their international development, with guys like Geraldo Perdomo, Kristian Robinson, Wilderd Patino, and Luis Frias looking like potential impact players and Jazz Chisholm helping to net Zac Gallen from Miami. Another was the Zack Greinke deal, which brought some big names in Seth Beer, J.B. Bukauskas, Corbin Martin, and Josh Rojas, helping to fill out the top of the system while guys like Pavin Smith, Drew Ellis, and Andy Yerzy saw their bats stagnate a little bit. And lastly, they had eight of the first 93 picks in the 2019 draft class, with which they grabbed one of the best pure hitters in the high school class, a pair of high upside high school arms, a pair of power college arms, and a trio of safer bet college players. It's a fairly spread out system that's led by a few impact bats in Beer, Robinson, Alek Thomas, and Daulton Varsho, as well as a deep array of pitching that includes no sure things but a lot of kids with one or two things they need to smooth out before reaching their high upside.
Affiliates: AAA Reno Aces, AA Jackson Generals, High A Visalia Rawhide, Class A Kane County, short season Hillsboro Hops, rookie level Missoula Osprey, complex level AZL and DSL Diamondbacks
Catcher
- Daulton Varsho (2020 Age: 23-24): Varsho, who was drafted in the second competitive balance round out of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee in 2017, is an interesting prospect. In 2019, he slashed .301/.378/.520 with 18 home runs, 21 stolen bases, and a 63/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 108 games at AA Jackson, which is a very interesting stat line for a catcher. Varsho is a great all-around hitter, one who possesses an excellent understanding of the strike zone and who makes hard contact consistently. He also has some power despite standing 5'10", which helped him hit those 18 home runs in 2019 to go along with 25 doubles and four triples. Unlike most catchers, he's actually an above average runner who has stolen 40 bases over the last two seasons, and he actually runs well enough to handle center field or potentially second base. That's important, because he's not a great defender behind the plate – he's good enough for now, but his fringy arm strength isn't ideal for the majors. Not many catchers can impact the game offensively like he can, though fortunately he won't be pushed to first base if he can't stick back there, so he'll still have defensive value. The fact that Carson Kelly probably has the catcher's role locked down for the long term doesn't help his chances of remaining a catcher. I like Varsho as a prospect and he profiles for 15-20 home runs annually with high on-base percentages.
- Keep an eye on: Dominic Miroglio, Jose Herrera
Corner Infield
- Seth Beer (2020 Age: 23): Beer was one of the top hitters in the country at Clemson, where he slashed .321/.489/.648 with 56 home runs over three years, but questions about how his bat would play against pro pitching as well as his lack of defensive value knocked him to the Astros at the end of the first round in 2018. He answered those questions with a strong pro debut in 2018 (.304/.389/.496) and was hitting well again this year when he got shipped to Arizona in the Zack Greinke deal. Between the two organizations, he slashed .289/.388/.516 with 26 home runs and a 113/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 games at High A and AA, and it's safe to say those questions about his bat are behind him. Beer is a very competent hitter with both power and the ability to get to it, and while he's not walking at twice the rate he's striking out anymore, he's still controlling the zone well and limiting his strikeouts. The flip side is that he's a defensive liability, as he has played left field for most of his career but as the slowest guy on the field, he wasn't catching much. He's been playing more first base recently and that's probably his spot going forward, but he's far from a stud there either. Fortunately, his bat will play anywhere, as he has the potential for 25-30 home runs annually with high on-base percentages if he can make enough contact.
- Kevin Cron (2020 Age: 27): How do you crack a prospect list as a soon-to-be 27 year old without much defensive value? By taking just 84 games to lead the entire minor leagues with 39 home runs, all the while slashing .329/.446/.777 with a 79/61 strikeout to walk ratio, mostly at AAA Reno. Cron also added six more home runs in the majors to get up to 45 total on the season, slashing .211/.269/.521 with a 28/4 strikeout to walk ratio in 39 games along the way. Cron's a big dude at 6'5" and a listed 250 pounds, and it's no secret what makes the former TCU Horned Frog a valuable player. He has big time power that he has gotten to consistently for years, now with 151 career minor league home runs and a .529 slugging percentage, and the ability to get to that power consistently against high level pitching. Now there is some swing and miss in his game, and it was exposed in his brief time in the majors, and as a first base/third base type with a fringy glove, he has to hit to provide value. He does hit both lefties and righties well, so he's not strictly a platoon bat, and he'll likely be a more of a pinch hitter/bench bat than a full time starter.
- Pavin Smith (2020 Age: 24): Smith's advanced bat made him the seventh overall pick out of UVA in 2017, but he hit for less impact than expected at first and slashed just .255/.343/.392 in High A in his first full season in 2018. He slumped at the beginning of 2019 as well, but he got hot over the last two months of the season to finish at .291/.370/.466 with 12 home runs and a 61/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 123 games at AA Jackson. The biggest thing that he had going for him in college was exceptional plate discipline, which he has retained in pro ball and it makes him nearly impossible to strike out, but so far the big power surge he had as a junior has not fully translated. He did hit more balls in the air in 2019, and I'd wager that most of those came in the second half when he got hot. If that is indeed the case, then Smith may have turned the corner for real and he might be well on his way to becoming a starting first baseman capable of 15-25 home runs per season and high on-base percentages. MLB.com might have given up on him because he's outside their top 30 Diamondbacks prospects, but I'm far from doing so.
- Drew Ellis (2020 Age: 24): Ellis, like Smith, is a 2017 draftee (second round out of Louisville) who has lost a bit of his prospect sheen. He's been an average hitter throughout his time in the minors, and in 2019 he slashed .235/.344/.406 with 14 home runs and a 109/63 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at AA Jackson. He's maintained great plate discipline, albeit not on Smith's level, but the overall impact he's generating at the plate isn't quite what was hoped for. He's unlikely to be a full time starter, though he has hit just enough to keep his hopes alive of becoming a bench or platoon bat – he hits lefties well and slashed .271/.353/.504 against them in 2019.
- Tristin English (2020 Age: 22-23): The Diamondbacks picked up English in the third round out of Georgia Tech in 2019, and they signed the senior under slot to save some money for earlier picks. He had a successful pro debut where he slashed .290/.356/.482 with seven home runs and a 24/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 50 games at short season Hillsboro, though he was already 22. English has power as well as a track record of hitting well against advanced pitching, and the fact that he limits his strikeouts so well means he can get to his power consistently. He doesn't draw a ton of walks, as he likes to make contact early in the count, but he doesn't necessarily need to in order to provide value at the plate. As a first baseman, even with his strong arm that could have gotten him drafted as a reliever, he won't be providing too much value on defense, so his bat will have to carry him. He's likely a guy who hits 15-20 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages, which might be just a bit light for a starting first baseman.
- Keep an eye on: Buddy Kennedy, Yoel Yanqui, Spencer Brickhouse, Endy Estrada
Middle Infield
- Domingo Leyba (2020 Age: 24): Leyba was originally a Tigers prospect who came over in the three team, Didi Gregorius/Robbie Ray deal of 2014, and in 2019 he slashed .300/.351/.519 with 19 home runs and a 78/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 games at AAA Reno, as well as .280/.367/.440 with a 9/4 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 major league games. Leyba's power surge was probably a bit of a Pacific Coast League mirage, but his high contact rates bode well for his major league future. The Diamondbacks have a pretty crowded infield scene, and Leyba's bat is a bit too light to justify a full time starting role, but he has a good shot at being a utility infielder who could make some spot starts at second base. There's not a ton of upside, but he's ready now.
- Andy Young (2020 Age: 25-26): Hoping to become the first North Dakota native in the majors since Travis Hafner, Young came over in the Paul Goldschmidt trade and slashed .271/.368/.535 with 29 home runs and a 121/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at AA Jackson and AAA Reno in 2019. Like Leyba, his power surge in Reno was a bit of a PCL mirage, but he does have more power than Leyba and could hit 10-20 home runs in the majors with decent on-base percentages. He's fairly average all around, with no standout tools and no true weaknesses, and he'll be battling Leyba for a utility infield spot in 2020. Leyba has the better hit tool, Young a bit more power, and Leyba is a bit better on defense.
- Geraldo Perdomo (2020 Age: 20): It's been really interesting to watch the trajectory of Geraldo Perdomo, who signed for just $70,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2016 then hit a fascinating .238/.410/.285 in the Dominican Summer League. There was virtually no impact in his bat, but at 17 years old he could control the zone like nobody else in his league. He found some of that impact in 2018 by slashing .322/.438/.460 in the low minors, then in 2019 he hit .275/.397/.364 with three home runs, 26 stolen bases, and a 67/70 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at Class A Kane County and High A Visalia. Despite coming off his age-19 season, Perdomo has the best plate discipline in the system with the patience to draw tons of walks as well as the bat control skills to make contact at any point in the count. He's a switch hitter with a quick, direct to the ball swing from both sides of the plate, and he's so good at finding that barrel that might be able to tap some power in his 6'3" frame if he chooses to do so. Set to play all of 2020 at just 20 years old and having already shown the ability to handle High A pitching, he's a really interesting guy to follow and I'll be watching closely to see if he can tap some power next year. Of course, we haven't even talked about his defense, which is great and makes him an asset at shortstop, and he's not the fastest guy on the field but his instincts have enabled him to steal 66 bases in his minor league career.
- Liover Peguero (2020 Age: 19): Perdomo isn't the only teenage Dominican shortstop making waves in this system. Peguero, signed for $475,000 in 2017, had an unremarkable .259/.311/.340 run through complex ball in 2018 before breaking out to slash .326/.382/.485 with five home runs, eleven stolen bases, and a 51/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games at rookie level Missoula and short season Hillsboro in 2019. Despite playing the entire season at 18 years old and with just 19 stateside games under his belt, Peguero went straight to rookie ball and raked, showing wiry strength that generated good gap and over the fence power while making consistent hard contact. He's in a pretty similar place to where Perdomo was a year ago, albeit with a bit more power and with less plate discipline, and he should hit full season ball as a 19 year old in 2020. Like Perdomo, he has a strong glove and should stick at shortstop, adding to his value.
- Keep an eye on: L.T. Tolbert, Luis Alejandro Basabe, Blaze Alexander, Jose Curpa, Glenallen Hill Jr.
Outfield
- Alek Thomas (2020 Age: 20): Thomas was a second round pick out of a Chicago high school in 2018, noted more for his feel for the game than for any loud tools at the time. However, he's just hit and hit since then, and in 2019 he slashed .300/.379/.450 with ten home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 105/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at Class A Kane County and High A Visalia. He's shown a great understanding of the strike zone for his age and has had no trouble putting the barrel on advanced pitching, and he's even begun to tap some power that he hadn't really shown in high school. He's also a great runner that can make his speed play on both sides of the ball, though at this point his below average arm makes him more of an average center fielder. Overall, he has a lot of great building blocks for a kid who won't turn 20 until April, and with his contact-oriented approach, he could be a leadoff man at the major league level by the time he's 21.
- Jake McCarthy (2020 Age: 22-23): McCarthy was a competitive balance pick out of UVA in 2018, a year after the Diamondbacks drafted his teammate Pavin Smith, though the injury problems that bugged him in college have continued into pro ball. In 2019, he slashed .277/.341/.405 with two home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 52/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at High A Visalia, though his season ended on July 7th when he left the game with an undisclosed injury. McCarthy has always had an explosive swing that should be conducive to power, and I liked him on draft day because I thought he could start to generate some, but he continues to be more of a line drive/ground ball hitter rather than one who tries to loft the ball, and I think he could hit for some actual if he did so. The continued injuries don't help him, but hopefully a healthy 2020 can see him drive the ball more in the air and hit 15-20 home runs – he already does hit a lot of extra base hits with 30 doubles and seven triples in 111 career minor league games. McCarthy is also a great runner who has stolen 39 bases in those 111 games, and it helps him play good defense in the outfield, though he might be more of a left fielder than a center fielder in deference to Alek Thomas. I still like McCarthy, but the power has to come at some point if he wants to be more than a fourth outfielder.
- Kristian Robinson (2020 Age: 19): The Diamondbacks picked up Robinson for $2.5 million out of the Bahamas in 2017, and so far, he's been worth every penny. He followed up a strong first season in 2018 with a breakout 2019 where he slashed .282/.368/.514 with 14 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 77/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 69 games at short season Hillsboro and Class A Kane County. He has a lot of wiry strength at 6'3", and it helps him generate a lot of raw power that he's beginning to tap in games. He has an all fields, line drive oriented approach, and learning to add loft to his swing could help him hit 25-30 home runs annually. There is some swing and miss in his game, but he has been playing consistently with older competition, as he reached Class A at just 18 years old in 2019. Robinson has the highest ceiling in the entire system, and he just needs time to figure things out. Defensively, he's great in the outfield and could stick in center, giving him the opportunity to impact the game on both sides of the ball.
- Corbin Carroll (2020 Age: 19): The Diamondbacks had seven picks on day one of the 2019 draft and eight of the first 93 overall selections, and their first one, at pick #15, was Corbin Carroll out of high school in Seattle. He was as-advertised in his pro debut, slashing .299/.409/.487 with two home runs, 18 stolen bases, and a 41/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 42 games between the complex level Arizona League and short season Hillsboro. A smaller guy at a skinny 5'10", he was drafted on the basis of his plus speed as well as his exceptional feel for hitting. He doesn't have much raw power, but he maximizes what he does have because he finds the barrel very consistently and can handle advanced pitching. His defense is a work in progress but is trending up, and he should be an asset in center field down the line. In a few years, he and Alek Thomas could be a dynamic 1-2 punch leading off the Arizona lineup.
- Dominic Fletcher (2020 Age: 22): Fletcher, drafted in the second competitive balance round out of Arkansas in 2019, is kind of a case where the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. Standing 5'9", he lacks standout tools in any area but he makes consistent line drive contact from the left side and was able to hit .318/.389/.463 with five home runs and a 50/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games at Class A Kane County in his pro debut. He's got some pop, but not a ton, and he makes good contact. An aggressive hitter at Arkansas, he was more selective in his pro debut and that paid big dividends for his production. He's also a fringy runner, but his instincts in the outfield enable him to play a solid center field or an above average left field. Fletcher will likely work his way up in a fourth outfield role, but if he keeps hitting for as much impact as he did in his pro debut, he could conceivably start and hit 10-15 home runs annually with solid on-base percentages.
- Wilderd Patino (2020 Age: 18-19): Patino drew a lot of walks in his first pro season in the Dominican Summer League in 2018 but didn't do much else, then broke out to slash .319/.378/.447 with a home run, 14 stolen bases, and a 46/13 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games in the complex level Arizona League and at rookie level Missoula in 2019. Patino was just 17 years old when he started out in the AZL this year and hit .349/.403/.472 there, though he was a bit exposed as a barely-18 year old in the Pioneer League after the promotion. He doesn't hit for a ton of power at present, but his short, explosive right handed swing could easily generate above average or even plus power down the road, and his advanced approach at the plate has allowed him to hit against much older competition. He's also a good runner, giving him a well-rounded game, and he has some of the better upside in this system. There's still a long way to go but the early returns are great.
- Keep an eye on: Ben DeLuzio, Eduardo Diaz, Jorge Barrosa, Dominic Canzone, Jeferson Espinal, Alvin Guzman
Starting Pitching
- Jon Duplantier (2020 Age: 25-26): Duplantier went in the third round out of Rice in 2016, then went 17-4 with a 1.79 ERA over his first two-plus pro seasons. He bounced between the majors and the minors in 2019, posting a 5.44 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP, and a 50/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 43 innings between AAA Reno and some lower level rehab, as well as a 4.42 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 34/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36.2 major league innings. A healthy Duplantier is absolutely a major league starter, as he can sit in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and add a curve, a slider, and a changeup while commanding everything pretty well when he's on the mound consistently. Unfortunately, nagging arm problems have limited him since college, and 2017 was really his only truly healthy season when he threw 136 innings. It's hard to have much faith that Duplantier, now 25, can throw 150+ innings in a season at the major league level, but if he can, they'd be dominant innings and he could be a #3 starter. The Diamondbacks have a bit of a crowded rotation picture, and while it's certainly not impenetrable, he's probably going to have to prove himself in the bullpen first before getting another crack at starting.
- J.B Bukauskas (2020 Age: 23): Bukauskas, who grew up in the same hometown of Ashburn, Virginia as current D-Backs starter Taylor Clarke, was a first round pick out of UNC by the Astros in 2017 then came over to Arizona in the Zack Greinke deal. After an injury-interrupted but strong 2018 (2.14 ERA, 71/24 K/BB), he was more inconsistent in 2019 and posted a 5.44 ERA, a 1.62 WHIP, and a 109/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 92.2 innings at the two AA affiliates. There's no question about the stuff, at all, as Bukauskas sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a devastating slider that has never failed to miss bats consistently, while his changeup has improved since college and he's added a harder cutter. The problem lies with his command, which is well below average and which causes his stuff to play down. Additionally, it's hard to project the 6' right hander to significantly improve his command, one because he hasn't yet and just turned 23 in October and two because he throws with a lot of effort in a jerky delivery. The Astros were unable to smooth him out, and maybe the Diamondbacks will, but it's a big question mark. If he can't get close to average command, his fastball/slider combination can and will make him an impact reliever, one who could potentially even close games, but if he can figure it out somewhat, he could be a mid rotation starter.
- Corbin Martin (2020 Age: 24): Martin grew up in the Houston area and attended Texas A&M, then got drafted in the second round by his hometown Astros one round after Bukauskas and was shipped together with him and others in the Zack Greinke trade. Martin was successful in AAA in 2019 with a 3.13 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 45/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 37.1 innings, and he also posted a 5.59 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP, and a 19/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 19.1 major league innings. However, something wasn't quite right with his arm and he went down with Tommy John surgery in July, shortly before the trade. That puts his 2020 season in jeopardy, because at best he'll be available in a limited role for the stretch run in September. For 2021 and beyond, though, Martin is one to look forward to. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and complements it with a big breaking curveball and a harder slider, as well as a changeup, and his command has improved since college. It's a classic #3 or #4 starter profile, and once he gets healthy, he'll be given every chance to claim a spot in the rotation. We'll just have to see how he handles returning from injury and whether the Diamondbacks end up pushing him to the bullpen, where he was successful in college.
- Josh Green (2020 Age: 24): Green was a very under the radar 14th round senior sign out of Southeastern Louisiana in 2018, but he was a known commodity by the end of his pro debut, in which he had a 1.09 ERA and a 25/9 strikeout to walk ratio in short season ball. Green then took a massive leap forward in 2019, posting a 2.71 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 101/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 126.1 innings at High A Visalia and AA Jackson, then went and dominated in two Southern League playoff starts. If there is one way to describe Green's stuff, it's "heavy." He generates a ton of ground balls with all of his pitches, throwing a low to mid 90's sinker while adding a downer curveball and more of a diving slider, as well as a changeup, and he did a great job of hitting his spots and keeping everything low in the zone in 2019. Everything comes from a closed off delivery that makes him difficult to pick up, and he's proven durable enough to handle a starter's workload, something the names above him on this list very much have not yet. Green's still a bit of a sleeper but he has legitimate rotation aspirations and could stick in the rotation longer than any of those names above him on this list as more of a #4 innings eating guy.
- Levi Kelly (2020 Age: 20-21): I can't currently think of any active major leaguers from western West Virginia, though Charleston-area native Levi Kelly would like to change that (though his high school did produce 1957 World Series MVP Lew Burdette). Kelly, an eighth round in 2018 after transferring to the IMG Academy, had a huge breakout in 2019 with a 2.15 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 126/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.1 innings, often outshining his teammate and the more highly regarded Matt Tabor in that Class A Kane County rotation. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has focused on his slider in pro ball, turning it into a real weapon. Those two pitches, combined with a changeup that has improved in pro ball, were too much for Class A hitters, and it will be interesting to see how he fares against most advanced competition. Kelly's command has come along nicely in pro ball, but there is still more work to do on that front if he wants to become a mid-rotation starter.
- Matt Tabor (2020 Age: 21-22): Tabor was a third round pick out of a Boston-area high school in 2017, and while the Diamondbacks have brought him along slowly, he's been effective every step of the way. In 2019, Tabor posted a 2.93 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a 101/16 strikeout to walk ratio over 95.1 innings at Class A Kane County, where he joined Kelly and Jackson Goddard in one of the better Class A rotations around. A raw talent coming out of high school, he's basically a more refined version of what he was in 2017. He still sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good changeup, and his slider still needs work, but he's ironed out his mechanics and is throwing a lot more strikes than he used to. He's a bit more refined than Kelly now, but he's also a year older, and while Tabor has the better changeup, Kelly easily has him beat with the breaking ball. Tabor will need to continue to refine his offspeed stuff, but otherwise, he understands pitching and shouldn't have any trouble working his way up towards the majors, with a #3/#4 starter projection a reasonable ceiling.
- Shumpei Yoshikawa (2020 Age: 25): Yoshikawa grew up in Japan, but he jumped directly from Japan's Industrial League, which is more or less what it sounds like, to the Diamondbacks system and completely bypassed the NPB, Japan's major league. He then posted a 3.75 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 123/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 103.1 innings at High A Visalia, which certainly isn't half bad in your first taste of a foreign country. Yoshikawa doesn't throw overly hard, sitting around 90 with his fastball, but he gets most of his strikeouts with an excellent changeup that he can deploy against both lefties and righties. His breaking balls need to get more consistent, but fortunately he does fill up the strike zone and taking that step forward could help him become a back-end starter.
- Luis Frias (2020 Age: 21-22): A converted infielder, Frias has made a lot of progress over the last few years and is well on his way towards ditching the "raw power arm" label for good. In 2019, he posted a 2.83 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a 101/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 76.1 innings at short season Hillsboro and Class A Kane County, refining multiple parts of his game along the way. He can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his power fastball, and he adds a big, downer curveball that just keeps on going as well as a harder changeup. While he's no control artist, he's made significant strides with his command and it's approaching average, though it still needs continued refinement. He's still somewhat raw, as he could probably use to sharpen his curveball just a touch and get more consistent with his changeup, but the building blocks are in place and he's shooting up prospect lists. If the rotation doesn't work out, his fastball/curveball combination could make him lethal in relief.
- Drey Jameson (2020 Age: 22): Jameson was a compensation pick out of Ball State in 2019, though he struggled to throw strikes in his debut and posted a 6.17 ERA, a 1.97 WHIP, and a 12/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.2 innings at short season Hillsboro. He's a little guy at a listed 6' and 165 pounds, but he throws really hard with a mid 90's fastball and a pair of distinct power breaking balls and he can maintain that stuff deep into games. However, there is significant reliever risk for a multitude of reasons, including his size, the effort in his delivery, and his inconsistent command. In order to stay in the rotation, Jameson will a) need to prove his durability and either b) develop his changeup or c) get more consistent with his command, but given the stamina in his right arm, he'll be able to fight hard to remain a starter. If he does move to the bullpen, the fastball and breaking balls could make him an impact reliever. It's a high risk pick for the compensation round, given that he'll turn 23 at the end of the season, but it could be a high reward one.
- Brennan Malone (2020 Age: 19): Malone went one pick before Jameson out of the IMG Academy, though he grew up in the Charlotte area before transferring for his senior year. The move paid off and in his pro debut he posted a 4.50 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and an 8/5 strikeout to walk ratio across eight innings in the complex level Arizona League and at short season Hillsboro. Malone is very athletic, standing 6'4" and throwing four good pitches. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a great slider, which he developed at IMG, a curveball which is inconsistent but which can flash plus, and a solid changeup. His command is coming along nicely, though he does have more work to do on that front. He's a very well-balanced arm for someone who will play the whole coming season at 19 years old, and he has a shot to become a #3 starter down the road.
- Tommy Henry (2020 Age: 22-23): Henry had an extremely up and down junior year at Michigan, then went in the second competitive balance round in 2019 before allowing three runs (two earned) over three innings at short season Hillsboro in his pro debut, striking out four and walking none. He dominated early in the season, got knocked around a lot in the middle, and got hot in the NCAA Tournament against good lineups, so really, it's hard to say what he'll become. He can sit in the low 90's and add a sharp slider and a good changeup when he's on, though his stuff tends to flatten out at times and you never really know which Tommy Henry you're going to get. His command fluctuates as well, as he can really lock down the strike zone at times but at others, that command plays closer to average. That's better than fluctuating on the other side of the average line, and in all, the lefty has real upside as a #3 starter. There's a lot of risk, though, as he doesn't quite have that power relief profile should he wind up in the bullpen and he'll turn 23 in July, making him somewhat old for a college junior draftee.
- Blake Walston (2020 Age: 18-19): Walston, selected seven picks before Malone in the back half of the first round, has a higher ceiling but more work to do to get there. Coming out of a Wilmington, North Carolina high school, he posted a 2.45 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a 17/2 strikeout to walk ratio over 11 innings between the Arizona League and Hillsboro, though he did get knocked around in the Northwest League playoffs. Walston is a 6'5" left hander, words which can make scouts drool, and he's exceptionally projectable. He currently sits anywhere from the high 80's to the low 90's depending on how fresh he is, and his best secondary is a curveball that can look like a true plus pitch when it's at its best. Walston also adds a slider and a changeup, but in all, he has a long way to go to reach his tremendous ceiling. First off, he needs to hit the weight room and add the stamina to pitch deep into games, and then he needs to get more consistent with his whole arsenal. He won't even turn 19 until June, so he's very young and has a ton of time, so you'd expect that the D-Backs will take it slow with him, but the end product could be a true ace three to five years down the line if this lottery ticket works out.
- Keep an eye on: Jeremy Beasley, Jeff Bain, Kenny Hernandez, Jackson Goddard, Tyler Holton, Michel Gelabert, Avery Short
Relief Pitching
- Taylor Widener (2020 Age: 25): Originally a Yankees' 12th rounder out of South Carolina in 2016, Widener came over in the three team Steven Souza/Brandon Drury deal of 2018 and had a great first season in the organization (2.75 ERA, 176/43 K/BB), but he struggled intensely in 2019 and finished with an 8.10 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a 109/41 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 innings at AAA Reno. Reno is one of the most hitter friendly contexts in minor league baseball, so an 8.10 ERA there might be a 6.10 ERA elsewhere, but it's still not what you want to see and he allowed 23 home runs in 23 starts. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a slider and a changeup, though neither stand out as plus and he more relies on deception and good arm side fade on the fastball and changeup to miss bats. The stuff might be a little light to work in the rotation, especially with the depth the Diamondbacks have there, but it could play up in the bullpen, where he does have experience dating back to his time at South Carolina. As a reliever, he could be ready out of spring training.
- Ryne Nelson (2020 Age: 22): Nelson was a second round pick out of Oregon in 2019, though as a native of Henderson, Nevada, he's a semi-hometown guy for the D-Backs. In his pro debut, he posted a 2.89 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 26/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 18.2 innings at short season Hillsboro, then added six dominant innings over a pair of Northwest League playoff appearances. Arizona may try him as a starter, as he was in the Ducks rotation for a time, but his future most likely lies in the bullpen unless they can clean him up considerably. He can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball out of the bullpen, and his hard slider plays better in short stints. However, his command is well below average, and he'd have to make significant strides with it in order to remain a starter. He'll still need to get a bit sharper with his command even as a reliever, because while his slider is tough to square up, it's not a true out pitch at this point. If he can locate his pitches a bit better in the future, he does have the upside of an impact relief arm who could hit 100 down the road.
- Keep an eye on: West Tunnell, Breckin Williams, Mack Lemieux, Matt Mercer, Blake Workman, Conor Grammes
Showing posts with label J.B. Bukauskas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label J.B. Bukauskas. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 14, 2020
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Reviewing the Houston Astros Farm System
The Astros' player development has been something else, having produced a homegrown, World Series-winning core of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance McCullers. Even with all of those graduations, they still have a lot of depth down on the farm, led by two super prospects in Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. It's a pitching heavy system that includes lots of potential impact arms, though guys like Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Seth Beer ensure that the group of hitters is nothing to overlook.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
Monday, June 26, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Houston Astros
First 5 rounds: J.B. Bukauskas (1-15), Joe Perez (2-53), Corbin Martin (2-56), J.J. Matijevic (CBB-75), Tyler Ivey (3-91), Peter Solomon (4-121), Nathan Perry (5-151)
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)
The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.
1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.
2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.
2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.
CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.
3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.
4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.
6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.
Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)
The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.
1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.
2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.
2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.
CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.
3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.
4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.
6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.
Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.
Sunday, May 14, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: J.B. Bukauskas
RHP J.B. Bukauskas (University of North Carolina): 6', 195 lbs, born 10/11/1996
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 50.
I got the chance to see Bukauskas pitch against Virginia Tech on May 13th, though it ended up being his worst start of the season as he walked five batters and failed to get out of the fourth inning. Still, the UNC ace is a very important pitcher to watch. Though he figured to go as high as the first round in high school after reclassifying and "skipping" his junior season in 2014 (when I actually had the opportunity to play against him), he asked teams not to draft him and ultimately ended up at UNC. After three years in which he has improved each season, he's a likely top ten pick with a blazing fastball, a wicked slider, and a track record of missing bats in college, though numerous questions abound.
Strengths
Bukauskas can straight up bring the head. He throws in the mid 90's, and that fastball is no straight offering. It has run and sink, making it a true plus pitch. His hard, mid 80's slider is another plus pitch, generating consistent swings and misses with its hard bite down away from right handers/down into left handers. With two plus pitches right now, he already has the floor of a high-leverage reliever (barring injury, of course), but he can hold his velocity into the late innings and he has every chance to start. He also has an emerging changeup that should be a useful pitch down the road. He has been compared to fellow undersized right hander Sonny Gray, who was drafted 18th overall by the A's out of Vanderbilt in 2011 and has been very effective when healthy. The A's pick sixth overall this year, and many mock drafts have had the A's picking the UNC right hander.
Weaknesses
Bukauskas can be inconsistent with his command, which hurt his chances to start. Also hurting his starting chances are his height and delivery. Bukauskas stands at six feet tall, which is certainly on the shorter side for a major league starting pitcher. He also doesn't have the smoothest delivery, as it features a short arm path and a lot of effort. Combine that with him being a smaller guy, and teams have very real concerns about his ability to start.
5/13/17 Report
@Virginia Tech: 3.1 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H, 5 BB, 2 K's
As I stated in the overview paragraph, I did get the opportunity to watch Bukauskas pitch against a quietly good Virginia Tech offense on May 13th, and I have a nasty sunburn to show for it. He sat 93-95 throughout the game, touching 96 three times. He is usually a touch faster, but he did not have his best stuff on Saturday. He particularly struggled in commanding his slider, which he threw quite often. Sitting 84-87, it had the sharp bite as advertised and generated plenty of swings and misses, but Bukauskas missed his spots by a wide margin as often as he hit them. When it was placed at the knees, it was pretty much untouchable. However, he threw it in the dirt numerous times, missed wide, missed in, missed everywhere but up, often falling behind in counts and allowing runners to advance on wild pitches. Fortunately, he rarely missed up, which is the only time his slider actually flattened out and became hittable. Still, Hokie hitters were able to sit on his fastball, knowing that his slider would probably miss or even if it didn't, it was un-hittable and therefore not worth swinging at. By sitting on his fastball, they were able to square it up more than you'd expect, with senior shortstop Ryan Tufts blasting a 94 MPH offering over the left field stands and redshirt junior right fielder Tom Stoffel knocking a pair of doubles. I guess it would be important to note that Virginia Tech's baseball field is more than 2000 feet above sea level, but that is still nowhere near Coors Field in terms of altitude. I actually saw Bukauskas throw his changeup a couple of times while warming up between innings, and it looked pretty good, but I was surprised not to see him use it during the game, especially with his slider being all over the place. He obviously needs to build up his confidence in the pitch before it becomes a workable major league pitch.
Overview
Fastball: 65. Slider: 60. Changeup: 50. Control: 50.
I got the chance to see Bukauskas pitch against Virginia Tech on May 13th, though it ended up being his worst start of the season as he walked five batters and failed to get out of the fourth inning. Still, the UNC ace is a very important pitcher to watch. Though he figured to go as high as the first round in high school after reclassifying and "skipping" his junior season in 2014 (when I actually had the opportunity to play against him), he asked teams not to draft him and ultimately ended up at UNC. After three years in which he has improved each season, he's a likely top ten pick with a blazing fastball, a wicked slider, and a track record of missing bats in college, though numerous questions abound.
Strengths
Bukauskas can straight up bring the head. He throws in the mid 90's, and that fastball is no straight offering. It has run and sink, making it a true plus pitch. His hard, mid 80's slider is another plus pitch, generating consistent swings and misses with its hard bite down away from right handers/down into left handers. With two plus pitches right now, he already has the floor of a high-leverage reliever (barring injury, of course), but he can hold his velocity into the late innings and he has every chance to start. He also has an emerging changeup that should be a useful pitch down the road. He has been compared to fellow undersized right hander Sonny Gray, who was drafted 18th overall by the A's out of Vanderbilt in 2011 and has been very effective when healthy. The A's pick sixth overall this year, and many mock drafts have had the A's picking the UNC right hander.
Weaknesses
Bukauskas can be inconsistent with his command, which hurt his chances to start. Also hurting his starting chances are his height and delivery. Bukauskas stands at six feet tall, which is certainly on the shorter side for a major league starting pitcher. He also doesn't have the smoothest delivery, as it features a short arm path and a lot of effort. Combine that with him being a smaller guy, and teams have very real concerns about his ability to start.
5/13/17 Report
@Virginia Tech: 3.1 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 6 H, 5 BB, 2 K's
As I stated in the overview paragraph, I did get the opportunity to watch Bukauskas pitch against a quietly good Virginia Tech offense on May 13th, and I have a nasty sunburn to show for it. He sat 93-95 throughout the game, touching 96 three times. He is usually a touch faster, but he did not have his best stuff on Saturday. He particularly struggled in commanding his slider, which he threw quite often. Sitting 84-87, it had the sharp bite as advertised and generated plenty of swings and misses, but Bukauskas missed his spots by a wide margin as often as he hit them. When it was placed at the knees, it was pretty much untouchable. However, he threw it in the dirt numerous times, missed wide, missed in, missed everywhere but up, often falling behind in counts and allowing runners to advance on wild pitches. Fortunately, he rarely missed up, which is the only time his slider actually flattened out and became hittable. Still, Hokie hitters were able to sit on his fastball, knowing that his slider would probably miss or even if it didn't, it was un-hittable and therefore not worth swinging at. By sitting on his fastball, they were able to square it up more than you'd expect, with senior shortstop Ryan Tufts blasting a 94 MPH offering over the left field stands and redshirt junior right fielder Tom Stoffel knocking a pair of doubles. I guess it would be important to note that Virginia Tech's baseball field is more than 2000 feet above sea level, but that is still nowhere near Coors Field in terms of altitude. I actually saw Bukauskas throw his changeup a couple of times while warming up between innings, and it looked pretty good, but I was surprised not to see him use it during the game, especially with his slider being all over the place. He obviously needs to build up his confidence in the pitch before it becomes a workable major league pitch.
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