Dealin' Jerry DiPoto has taken a sledgehammer to this farm system, sending away prospects like Luiz Gohara, Mallex Smith, Nick Neidert, Ryan Yarbrough, Emilio Pagan, Andrew Moore, Tyler O'Neill, Boog Powell, Brayan Hernandez, Pablo Lopez, Thomas Burrows, and Juan Then just to name a few of the trades since the start of 2017. What's left is a very thin system with some high-ceiling talent at the top of the prospect charts and a smattering of relief prospects and recent draftees towards the bottom. The Mariners' player development isn't the greatest, which lowers the floors of many prospects, and with the team missing the playoffs again in 2018, the team isn't in a great spot. For now, the balance leans towards hitting, with many high ceiling hitters at the lower levels and quite a few utility prospects closer to the majors. Below are the system's bright spots.
Update: Mariners have since acquired Justus Sheffield, Erik Swanson, Dom Thompson-Williams, Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn, Gerson Bautista, and Jake Fraley
Affiliates: AAA Tacoma Rainiers, AA Arkansas Travelers, High A Modesto Nuts, Class A Clinton LumberKings*, Short Season Everett AquaSox, complex level AZL and DSL Mariners
*Class A Affiliate will move from Clinton, IA to Charleston, WV in 2019
The Headliner: OF Kyle Lewis
Kyle Lewis was drafted eleventh overall out of Mercer in 2016, though many people - myself included - saw this as a steal for the Mariners, who seemed to be getting a top ten or even top five talent. However, after a strong start to his pro career (.299/.385/.530 in 30 games at Short Season Everett in 2016), he blew out his knee in a home plate collision and it seems he is still feeling the effects. 2017 (.257/.329/.412) and 2018 (.244/.306/.405) have both been mediocre as he still doesn't appear fully healthy, and he turned 23 in July. Now, let's get to the good news. He is still extremely talented, and pre-injury he showed plus power, plus speed, a plus arm, and quick enough hands to hit for a high average. He still shows the quick hands and gets to his power occasionally (nine home runs and 26 doubles this year), and the lack of production really isn't his fault. His hands get through the zone so quickly that with his 6'4" frame, you can't give up on him yet. It's easy to project a healthy Lewis having an Eloy Jimenez-type breakout season in 2019, and if it all breaks right, I think he could hit 20-30 home runs per season in the majors with on-base percentages in the .350 range and good defense in the outfield.
Advanced Utility Prospects: 1B Evan White, OF Braden Bishop, 3B Joe Rizzo, SS Donnie Walton, OF Eric Filia, OF Chuck Taylor
While Kyle Lewis looks to be the next star in Seattle, the guys in this section of the list, save for White, don't project to be much more than bench assets. Fortunately for the Mariners, there are quite a few of them, meaning that one could end up exceeding expectations and contributing in a significant way. We'll start with Evan White, easily the second best position player prospect in the system. A high floor, low ceiling player when he was drafted 17th overall out of Kentucky in 2017, he has performed exactly to expectations, slashing .300/.371/.453 with eleven home runs and a 108/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 124 games this year, 120 of which came at High A Modesto. As with any California League statistics, they must be taken with a grain of salt, but these pretty much tell the story: a high on-base percentage and enough power to make pitchers respect him. While the power might be a little light for a first baseman who is typically expected to provide the thump, he makes up for it with exceptional defense (not common among first basemen) and he could be shifted to the outfield if needed. Expect a productive bat that may not be able to serve in the middle of a lineup but one that could slot nicely as a #6 hitter. 25 year old outfielder Braden Bishop is already a fan favorite, and for good reason. He established a charity called 4MOM in honor of his mother, who was diagnosed with Alzheimers, and he is extremely active in his philanthropic endeavor. On the baseball side, he slashed .284/.361/.412 with eight home runs and a 68/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AA Arkansas this year, showing serviceability in all aspects of offense. His glove is considered excellent in the outfield, and because he has shown some competency at the plate, he should have little trouble reaching the majors. However, since he doesn't offer much power and he's only a marginally productive on-base threat, I think it's unlikely that he ends up a leadoff hitter, but he still could be a nice bottom of the order piece. Most likely, he's a productive fourth outfielder. 20 year old infielder Joe Rizzo has seen his bat stagnate as he has moved up through the minors, slashing .241/.303/.321 with four home runs and a 108/40 strikeout to walk ratio even at hitter-friendly Modesto, and it's looking like he'll need to make some adjustments ahead of the 2019 season if he wants to remain a notable prospect. His defense is so-so, but fortunately, time is on his side and he is universally noted for his work ethic, which could help him tap the considerable raw power I still believe he possesses. He just needs to get more consistent with his approach. 24 year old infielder Donnie Walton hit much better at Modesto (.309/.402/.433) than he did after his promotion to Arkansas (.236/.325/.327), showing a classic utility projection with his defense, on-base ability, and lack of power. His solid approach (71/51 K/BB) gives him a high floor, and he'll likely be in Seattle by the end of 2019. 26 year old outfielder Eric Filia is an interesting prospect in that he was nearly 24 when he was drafted out of UCLA in 2016, has been suspended twice for drugs of abuse, and that his plate discipline is excellent despite a so-so bat. At Arkansas this year, he slashed .274/.371/.348 with just a pair of home runs, but his 30/44 strikeout to walk ratio shows great patience (12.8% walk rate) as well as great bat to ball skills (8.7% strikeout rate). That bodes well for him to be able to translate his hitting up to the majors, though his lack of power and ability to hit the ball with much authority, combined with his age at this point, will likely render him to a fourth or fifth outfielder role. Lastly, 25 year old outfielder Chuck Taylor has a similar current on-field profile to Filia, slashing .297/.377/.376 with three home runs and a nice 79/61 strikeout to walk ratio over 126 games at Arkansas. As with Filia, there's not much power, but he has shown an advanced approach at the upper levels which will help him get to the majors.
Starting Pitching Options: Logan Gilbert, Sam Carlson, Max Povse, Rob Whalen
There isn't much pitching talent in the system, and the group is even thinner when it comes to starting pitchers. In fact, with Michigan natives Anthony Misiewicz (5.24 ERA, 95/29 K/BB at mostly AA) and Oliver Jaskie (6.60 ERA, 77/49 K/BB at Class A) having rough seasons, the four listed in this section are the only ones with any real shot at being difference-making starting pitchers. The system's top pitching prospect, 2018 first rounder (14th overall) Logan Gilbert, has not thrown a professional pitch yet. He dominated at Stetson this year (11-2, 2.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 163/25 K/BB in 112 IP), showing an advanced four pitch arsenal which, when combined with his 6'6" frame, gives him a very high ceiling. However, his stuff was somewhat inconsistent in 2018, giving him some risk as a pitcher who might not be able to make his stuff translate upwards. We'll see if the Seattle development program makes an ace out of Gilbert or ends up with a relief arm. Sam Carlson, who was drafted in the second round (55th overall) out of a Minnesota high school in 2017 but who signed for first round money, is a long way off. The 19 year old underwent Tommy John surgery in July, meaning he probably won't pitch at all in 2019. When healthy, the 6'4" righty has ace-like stuff, throwing in the mid 90's and adding a wicked slider/changeup combination while controlling it all well for a teenager. Age is on his side, but we'll just have to play the wait and see game to find out if he becomes the next Felix Hernandez. 25 year old Max Povse came over in a trade from the Braves after the 2016 season, and while he seems to have AA down, he has struggled to perform in AAA. Between the 2017 and 2018 seasons, both of which were split between AA Arkansas and AAA Tacoma, he is 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA and a 92/33 strikeout to walk ratio at Arkansas but 2-10 with an 8.17 ERA and a 74/40 strikeout to walk ratio at Tacoma. The 6'8" righty has average stuff that plays up due to his height, but it looks like AAA hitting has figured him out and he'll need his stuff to take one more step forward to be successful in the majors. He has a #4/#5 starter ceiling but if converted to relief, he can probably be a solid bullpen piece right now. 24 year old Rob Whalen has been a prospect for a long time, having been drafted in 2012 out of high school in Florida. He dominated the low minors but has struggled in the upper minors, mixing his average stuff and getting mediocre results. He posted a 5.16 ERA and a 92/37 strikeout to walk ratio at AAA Tacoma this year, which isn't awful considering the context, and he really only needs to take one more step forward to be a useful #5 starter for the Mariners. More likely, he's a long reliever.
Bullpen Options: Matthew Festa, Wyatt Mills, Joey Gerber, Art Warren, Nick Rumbelow
Relief prospects tend to pop out of nowhere, either as converted starters or guys who just found something that clicked. The Mariners don't have many of these either, but they don't have much of anything and this spot isn't necessarily a weak one for them. Matthew Festa offers the best combination of major league readiness and upside, coming in with a pretty good fastball/slider combination backed up by a curveball and a changeup. He posted a 2.76 ERA and a nice 67/12 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 innings at AA Arkansas this year, reaching the majors for a few appearances with mixed results. The 25 year old has a decent shot of breaking camp with the Mariners next year, and if he doesn't he should be one of the first to be called up from the minors to do some middle relief work. 23 year old Wyatt Mills pitched very well at High A Modesto (1.91 ERA, 49/9 K/BB in 42.1 IP) but struggled with his promotion to Arkansas (10.13 ERA, 10/4 K/BB in 10.2 IP). He's a sidearming righty with a true fastball/slider combo, working more from a place of deception than of dominance. He hasn't proven that he can hold up against higher level hitting, but his upside is higher than Festa's. 21 year old Joey Gerber was just drafted in the eighth round out of Illinois this past June, but he has already made a name for himself in this system by posting a 2.10 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 43/11 strikeout to walk ratio over his first 25.2 innings in the minors, split between the short season Northwest League and Class A Clinton. He uses a very good, very deceptive fastball/slider combination to get outs, but with that deception comes some command problems which ultimately have not hampered him yet in the minors. Look for Gerber to be among the first 2018 draftees for any team to reach the majors. 25 year old Art Warren is a converted starter who battled shoulder issues in 2018, using his full, four pitch arsenal to rack up strikeouts but also struggling with command. He may have to drop a pitch going forward (probably his changeup), but getting healthy and throwing strikes will be his most important goal because he is clearly talented enough to pitch in the major leagues. 27 year old Nick Rumbelow makes this list really because of his proximity to the majors. He actually pitched for the Yankees in the majors as far back as 2015, but with 33.1 career major league innings he is still technically a prospect. He has mastered the minor leagues and has a 1.35 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 71/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 innings in AA and AAA over the last two seasons, so all he really needs is an opportunity. At 27, he's probably not getting any better.
Distant Offensive Wild Cards: OF Josh Stowers, C Cal Raleigh, OF Julio Rodriguez, SS Juan Querecuto, SS Noelvi Marte, OF Luis Liberato, OF Anthony Jimenez
The reasons behind the Mariners' lack of advanced prospects comes from a combination of trades and poor player development, which is why you see all these names here at the bottom, where the Mariners actually have some depth. I'll start with the two 2018 draftees from major ACC programs. I saw second rounder (54th overall) Josh Stowers play for Louisville this year, and he's a wiry outfielder with tons of speed, patience, and a bat that was picking up as the spring progressed. He hit .260/.380/.410 with 20 stolen bases in the short season Northwest League this year, and if he can keep his strikeouts down and recognize pitches well, he could be a leadoff man in Seattle. Third rounder (90th overall) Cal Raleigh comes from Florida State and is the team's best catching prospect, and his .288/.367/.534 line in 38 games in the Northwest League was very encouraging. He has a lot to prove against more advanced pitching and with his defense behind the plate, but not a lot of catchers can swing it and he can. The next two players, Julio Rodriguez and Juan Querecuto, played all of 2018 at just 17 years old down in the Dominican Summer League. Rodriguez hit .315/.404/.525 with ten stolen bases and a 40/30 strikeout to walk ratio while showing arguably the best upside in the entire system, while Querecuto hit .243/.331/.329 with a 54/25 strikeout to walk ratio. Rodriguez is an outfielder who obviously has a long, long way to go, but he's done everything asked of him so far and could be an impact player in Seattle four or five years down the road. Querecuto, meanwhile, is more known for his defense at shortstop and his bat will need to develop considerably if he wants to make it. The defense does give the bat plenty of time, though, and takes the pressure off of it as he moves up. Noelvi Marte, who just turned 17 a few weeks ago, might be the youngest player I write about in this series because of the Mariners' lack of depth. The shortstop has big time power that should grow as he adds loft, and as a shortstop the bat has time to develop. His defense doesn't quite match Querecuto's but the bat is better. Of course, he has not appeared in the minors yet so he is completely unproven. The last two guys in this section, 22 year old Luis Liberato and 23 year old Anthony Jimenez, don't exactly qualify as "distant" but fit better here than in the utility section due to their upside. Liberato slashed .250/.317/.424 at Modesto in the High California League this year, which is decent given the hitter-friendly nature of the league. He's got power, good plate discipline, and good defense, but he'll still have to take another step forward with the bat to be any kind of impact player. Jimenez, meanwhile, slashed .262/.314/.377 with six home runs and 13 stolen bases the same level, which is somewhat disappointing. His defense and speed buy his bat time, but having just turned 23, the bat will have to pick up sooner or later.
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
Tuesday, October 9, 2018
2018 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: Rookies, Managers, and Relievers
These awards are based on how I would assign them, not on how I believe they will end up. MVP's and Cy Young's were posted previously.
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.
Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.
Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.
Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.
Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.
Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.
Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.
Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.
Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.
Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.
Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)
American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.
Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).
Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.
Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.
Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Shohei Ohtani (Los Angeles Angels)
Hitting Stats: 22 HR, .285/.361/.564, 10 SB, 152 wRC+, 2.8 fWAR in 104 games
Pitching Stats: 4-2, 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 63/22 K/BB, 51.2 IP in 10 starts
Honestly, I don't think this race should be particularly close. Shohei Ohtani was clearly the superior rookie to me, generating more offensive fWAR than Miguel Andujar and adding more than 50 innings of above average pitching to roughly match Andujar's number of plate appearances/total batters faced. At the plate, Ohtani slashed .285/.361/.564 with 22 home runs for a 152 wRC+, the latter of which would have placed him fourth in the American League if he had qualified, right between Alex Bregman's 157 and Jose Ramirez's 147. As a pitcher, he posted a 3.31 ERA and a 63/22 strikeout to walk ratio over ten starts, including an absolute gem on April 8th when he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and 12 strikeouts against the A's. The numbers alone make him the best rookie in the American League, but if you put them in context and just think about how amazing the fact that he was pitching and hitting at All Star levels is, and it really should be no competition here.
Runner-Up: Joey Wendle (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 7 HR, .300/.354/.435, 16 SB, 116 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 139 games
In the Ohtani-Andujar Rookie of the Year race, Joey Wendle didn't get nearly enough credit. An older rookie at 28, Wendle slashed .300/.354/.435 with 16 stolen bases and very good defense, impacting the game in very way except power. Even with only hitting seven home runs, he still knocked 33 doubles and six triples for a total of 46 extra base hits, good for third among AL rookies behind only Miguel Andujar (76) and Niko Goodrum (48): pretty good for a guy where power is his worst attribute.
Honrable Mention: Miguel Andujar (New York Yankees)
Stats: 27 HR, .297/.328/.527, 2 SB, 128 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 149 games
I'm just not as high on Andujar as many people are, though you could make a very good argument to put him ahead of Wendle and it's pretty close in my book. He did still have a great season for a rookie. The 23 year old slashed .297/.328/.527 with 27 home runs and 47 doubles, his power stroke helping the Yankees get plenty of production out of what looked like a murky infield situation pre-season. He didn't get on base much, but the power was unmatched by any AL rookies outside of Ohtani. He also got better as the season went on and had his best month in August, slashing .320/.344/.623 with ten home runs in 30 games, again having difficulty getting on base but really showing off the power. On defense, he helped the Yankees just about as much as Ohtani did as a DH, as in not much.
Others
Gleyber Torres (NYY, 24 HR, .271/.340/.480, 6 SB, 120 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR)
Brad Keller (KC, 9-6, 3.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 96/50 K/BB)
Ryan Yarbrough (TB, 16-6, 3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 128/50 K/BB)
Jaime Barria (LAA, 10-9, 3.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 98/47 K/BB)
Willy Adames (TB, 10 HR, .278/.348/.406, 6 SB, 109 wRC+, 1.3 fWAR)
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Ronald Acuna (Atlanta Braves)
Stats: 26 HR, .293/.366/.552, 16 SB, 143 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 111 games
This was a difficult decision because Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto had virtually identical seasons, with their OPS's (Acuna .917/Soto .923), wOBA's (.388/.392), and fWAR's (3.7/3.7) knotting them together. While they were essentially equal offensively (Acuna has the upper hand in power, Soto in on-base percentage/plate discipline), Acuna was the better defender. Fangraphs didn't like his defense, but Statcast gave him five outs above average to Soto's four below average. Add in his 16 stolen bases, and I think Acuna has just enough to beat Soto by a hair. The 20 year old finished his rookie year slashing .293/.366/.552 with 26 home runs and 16 stolen bases, heating up as the season went on and slashing .322/.403/.625 with 19 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 68 games after the All Star Break. In fact, in August, he slashed .336/.405/.698 with eleven home runs and six stolen bases in 30 games, a pace that would give him nearly 60 home runs and over 30 stolen bases over a full season. Regardless of where he stands with regard to Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna had a fantastic rookie year.
Runner-Up: Juan Soto (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 22 HR, .292/.406/.517, 5 SB, 145 wRC+, 3.7 fWAR in 116 games
As you can see from the stat line, Juan Soto had a very, very similar season to Acuna. While I think Acuna beats him by a hair, I want to go over just how incredible the year was. Soto missed all but 32 games of the 2017 season with injuries, then turned 19 that October. Since he had only played 29 games above complex league baseball (the lowest level of the minors), it made sense to start him at Class A Hagerstown and let him work his way up. 16 games and a .373/.486/.814 slash line later, he was at High A Potomac, where he slashed .371/.466/.790 over 15 games. Up at AA Harrisburg, a feat in and of itself considering his situation, he slashed .323/.400/.581 over eight games and found himself in the majors by May. In the majors, he still didn't stop mashing, slashing .292/.406/.517 with 22 home runs over 116 games. Perhaps even more incredible than the production was the plate discipline he showed, as evidenced by a 99/79 strikeout to walk ratio (20% to 16%). In fact, his 21.9% swing rate on pitches outside the zone was 14th best in baseball among players with at least 450 plate appearances, which is pretty cool in its own right but downright incredible when you consider he's a teenager who began the season in Class A. In the box, he looked as poised and professional as anyone on the field, though his defense and base running could definitely use some work.
Honorable Mention: Walker Buehler (Los Angeles Dodgers)
Stats: 8-5, 2.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 151/37 K/BB, 137.1 IP in 24 games (23 starts)
Walker Buehler was about as good as rookie pitchers get. Over 24 games (23 starts), he posted a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP while striking out 151 and walking just 37 over 137.1 innings, good for a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.8% walk rate. Component ratios like that tend to be sustainable, and while he wasn't Corey Seager or Cody Bellinger this year, Buehler is yet another great Dodger rookie. While he did have a tendency to get blown up from time to time, allowing at least four earned runs in five separate games, he closed the season on absolute lockdown mode, going 4-2 with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.85 WHIP, and an 87/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.1 innings from July 31st onwards. He held the Padres hitless for six innings on May 4th and limited the Cardinals to just four baserunners over eight shutout innings on September 14th, striking out nine in the process.
Others
Harrison Bader (STL, 12 HR, .264/.334/.422, 15 SB, 106 wRC+, 3.5 fWAR)
Jack Flaherty (STL, 8-9, 3.34 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 182/59 K/BB)
Brian Anderson (MIA, 11 HR, .273/.357/.400, 2 SB, 113 wRC+, 3.4 fWAR)
Dereck Rodriguez (6-4, 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 89/36 K/BB)
Joey Lucchesi (SD, 8-9, 4.08 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 145/43 K/BB)
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Kevin Cash (Tampa Bay Rays)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (3rd in AL East), 10 game improvement over 2017
I don't think anybody expected the Rays to win 90 games in the stacked AL East this year, but they did just that in Kevin Cash's first year as manager. The team won not by hitting for power (.406 slugging percentage was 17th in baseball), but by getting on base (.333 on-base percentage was third best) and by mixing up their pitching staff. They did so by famously employing the opener, starting many games with a reliever to get the opposing team's best hitters out before going to a starter for the longer run. The results were great; their 90 ERA- beat last year's 94 ERA- and was far better than 2016's 102 ERA-, and they got these results without burning anybody out. In fact, only two pitchers (Blake Snell and Ryan Yarbrough) threw more than 100 innings, and no true reliever threw more than 70 innings. Instead, ten different pitchers threw between 50 and 70 innings as the workload was evenly balanced out, and almost all were effective with only one posting an ERA above 4.65 (Jacob Faria at 5.40). Cash pioneered a change in baseball that I think will have a lasting impact on how teams try to win.
Runner-Up: Bob Melvin (Oakland Athletics)
Record: 97-65, .599 WPCT (2nd in AL West), 22 game improvement over 2017
While I stand by giving the award to Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin did a fantastic job in helping his team improve 22 games, going from last in the AL West to a Wild Card spot. The A's put up the fourth highest slugging percentage in the majors (.439) on the backs of Khris Davis (.549), Matt Chapman (.508), and Stephen Piscotty (.491). Melvin was able to bring out the best in his offense, and it paid dividends. On the pitching side, he also experimented (to a lesser extent) with the opener, and his team's 92 ERA- was significantly better than 2017's 109.
Honorable Mention: Scott Servais (Seattle Mariners)
Record: 89-73, .549 WPCT (3rd in AL West), 11 game improvement over 2017
Based on the fact that they scored 34 fewer runs than their opponents in 2018, the Mariners significantly over-performed on their win-loss record mostly due to their 36-21 record in one run games and 14-1 record in extra innings games. While that doesn't bode well for future, sustained success in Seattle, I think it reflects well on Servais's ability to manage in close games. I also think the 89 wins is pretty impressive for a team where, frankly, I don't think there was too much talent.
Others
Aaron Boone (NYY, 100-62)
Alex Cora (BOS, 108-54)
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Brian Snitker (Atlanta Braves)
Record: 90-72, .556 WPCT (1st in NL East), 18 game improvement over 2017
Brian Snitker took a very young team coming off a 72-90 record and reversed it straight up to a 90-72 record. How young were the Braves? Touki Toussaint, who turned 22 in June, was the sixth youngest player to appear for the Braves this year, with four players being born in 1997. To be able to take a team that young and get this much success out of them is extremely impressive. Next year, I think the Braves will be even better.
Runner-Up: Craig Counsell (Milwaukee Brewers)
Record: 96-67, .589 WPCT (1st in NL Central), 9.5 game improvement over 2017
Craig Counsell was dealt an interesting hand, with baseball's deepest outfield and an infield that seemed somewhat mismatched. However, he handled it seemingly with ease, shuffling around his position players to get the right guys playing time while maintaining production. His team got hot at just the right time, winning their last eight games (including game 163) to win the NL Central. I think you could make a strong case for Counsell as the NL Manager of the Year.
Honorable Mention: Bud Black (Colorado Rockies)
Record: 91-72, .558 WPCT (2nd in NL West), 3.5 game improvement over 2017
Bud Black has done a great job turning Colorado into a pitching-oriented team, helping facilitate the rise of Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, Tyler Anderson, Scott Oberg, and more. I really don't think the Rockies' roster is *that* good, so to be able to squeeze so many wins out of a team with no offense and very young pitchers stuck pitching half their games in pitchers' hell is very impressive. If Rockies management ever got Black some hitters outside of Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, this could be a very good team going forward.
Others
Dave Roberts (LAD, 92-71)
Joe Maddon (CHC, 95-68)
American League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Blake Treinen (Oakland Athletics)
Stats: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 38 SV, 100/21 K/BB, 80.1 IP in 68 appearances
Blake Treinen completely turned his career around when he was traded from Washington to Oakland in 2017. With a 5.73 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate pre-trade and a 2.13 ERA and a 26.9% strikeout rate post trade, he successfully made the long-awaited transition from thrower to pitcher. This year, he was off the charts: 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, and a 100/21 strikeout to walk ratio in 80.1 innings. He struck out 31.7% of those that he faced while walking just 6.7%, and he allowed just one earned run after July 21st. In fact, in those final 30.1 innings, he had a 0.30 ERA, a 0.56 WHIP, and a 36/3 strikeout to walk ratio. That's a 32.7% strikeout rate and a 2.7% walk rate if you're keeping track at home. 98 mile per hour diving two seamers will do that.
Runner-Up: Edwin Diaz (Seattle Mariners)
Stats: 1.96 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 57 SV, 124/17 K/BB, 73.1 IP in 73 appearances
Edwin Diaz finished with the second most saves (57) ever for a single season, but that's not why he ranked second on this list because personally, I don't care. What's more astounding is Diaz's 124/17 strikeout to walk ratio, which translates to a 44.3% strikeout rate and a 6.1% walk rate. Imagine for every time you go through the lineup, four of the nine hitters strike out. That was what facing Diaz was like this season, with the 44.3% rate leading the American League this year (min. 50 IP).
Others
Jose LeClerc (TEX, 1.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 85/25 K/BB, 57.2 IP)
Collin McHugh (HOU, 1.99 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 94/21 K/BB, 72.1 IP)
Chad Green (NYY, 2.50 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 94/15 K/BB, 75.2 IP)
National League Reliever of the Year
Winner: Josh Hader (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 2.43 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12 SV, 143/30 K/BB, 81.1 IP in 55 appearances
I find it just a but counter-intuitive to give this award to a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, but Josh Hader was so good in every other facet of pitching that it had to go to him. While his ERA was a bit elevated in the realm of elite relievers, his 143/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 81.1 innings was absolutely incredible. His 46.7% strikeout rate (nearly half) not only led all of baseball (min. 50 IP), it was the fourth highest strikeout rate ever, behind only 2014 Aroldis Chapman (52.5%), 2012 Craig Kimbrel (50.2%), and 2017 Kimbrel (49.6%). In addition, by only allowing 36 hits and 30 walks, his WHIP was just 0.81. On April 30th, he had perhaps his best game of the season, striking out eight of the nine batters he faced (including Joey Votto), walking the other batter.
Runner-Up: Jeremy Jeffress (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 1.29 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 15 SV, 89/27 K/BB, 76.2 IP in 73 appearances
The Brewers' bullpen was pretty good, wasn't it? Jeremy Jeffress bounced back from a down 2017 (4.68 ERA, 51/34 K/BB) to post his best season this year, finishing with a 1.29 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. His 89/27 strikeout to walk ratio led to a 29.8% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate, but by keeping the hits from falling and especially limiting extra base hits (just 12 allowed all year), Jeffress kept the damage to a minimum even in the worst case scenarios, never allowing more than two runs in any of his 73 appearances. He even had a stretch from April 9th to May 27th in which he tossed 22.2 shutout innings on five hits, six walks, and 21 strikeouts for a 0.49 WHIP.
Others
Adam Ottavino (COL, 2.43 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 112/36 K/BB, 77.2 IP)
Kirby Yates (SD, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 90/17 K/BB, 63 IP)
Sean Doolittle (WSH, 1.60 ERA, 0.60 WHIP, 60/6 K/BB, 45 IP)
Friday, October 5, 2018
2018 Dugout Edge Regular Season Awards: MVP's and Cy Youngs
These awards are based on how I would assign them, not on how I believe they will end up. Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, and Reliever of the Year will follow
American League MVP
Winner: Mookie Betts (Boston Red Sox)
Stats: 32 HR, .346/.438/.640, 30 SB, 185 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR in 136 games
This award is so, so close with Mike Trout and I want so, so badly to give it to him, but I think Mookie Betts has Trout by just a hair. While Trout has the higher on-base percentage (.460 to .438), Betts has the higher slugging percentage (.640 to .628), leading to very similar wOBA's of .449 for Betts and .447 for Trout. Adding in park factors, Trout's 191 wRC+ tops Betts' 185, though Betts' stronger defense helps him win the fWAR battle 10.4 to 9.8. To help confirm the defensive edge for Betts, he recorded ten outs above average (Statcast) to Trout's eight. And, though I don't believe in using team winning percentage to qualify an MVP, it can help be a tiebreaker (but only in absolute ties), and Betts wins there. Again, as much as Trout deserves more MVP awards and as much as I want to give it to him, Betts was just a hair better. Now, to focus on Betts, his season was absolutely phenomenal. With a .346/.438/.640 slash line as well as 30 stolen bases and ten outs above average, he showed not only skill but exceptional proficiency in all facets of the game: power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. Meanwhile, his 14.8% strikeout rate was fairly low for today's standards, especially for a power hitter, and he established himself as arguably the second best player in the game after Trout. His 13.2% walk rate was also a career high. Betts lead the American League in runs (129), batting average (.346), slugging percentage (.640), extra base hits (84), wOBA (.449), and fWAR (10.4) while finishing second in doubles (47), on-base percentage (.438), OPS (1.078), and wRC+ (185). This was mostly possible due to an exceptionally hot stretch from April 1st to May 25th in which he slashed .372/.446/.793 with 17 home runs and a 23/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. That included his best game of the season on April 17th when he homered three times and walked twice in five trips to the plate in the Red Sox 10-1 win over the Angels, including leading off the game with a home run off Shohei Ohtani.
Runner-Up: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
Stats: 39 HR, .312/.460/.628, 24 SB, 191 wRC+, 9.8 fWAR in 140 games
Another year, another exceptional season from Trout. In fact, his 191 wRC+ and .447 wOBA set career highs in what has likely been his best offensive season ever. This is why it is so difficult for me not to give Trout the MVP award, and it reflects more on Mookie's incredible season than any shortcomings whatsoever for Trout, and Trout remains the best player in the league by far. In 2018, he led the American League in wRC+ (191), walks (122), on-base percentage (.460), and OPS (1.088) while finishing second in wOBA (.447) and fWAR (9.8) and fourth in home runs (39) and batting average (.312). He also added eight outs above average and stole 24 bases, showing, like Betts, the ability to change the game in every facet. He continued his career trend of being completely allergic to slumps, posting an OPS of at least 1.045 in all five full months that he was healthy (.867 in three March games and .873 when missing all but eight August games to injury). He was unstoppable at home (.296/.469/.583) and on the road (.328/.450/.672), against lefties (.292/.452/.540) and righties (.318/.462/.656), and before (.310/.454/.606) and after (.316/.472/.684) the All Star Break. Of note is an eight game stretch in June where he knocked four home runs and slashed .696/.771/1.261 against Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona. He also had his best game of the season on September 8th, when he punished the White Sox by swatting three singles and two home runs as part of a 5-5 performance in the Angels' 12-3 win.
Honorable Mention: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians)
Stats: 39 HR, .270/.387/.552, 34 SB, 147 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR in 157 games
As with Trout and Betts, the race for third place is exceptionally close between Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman, though I think Ramirez wins by a hair. He didn't league the league in anything, but he finished in the top five in walks (106), fWAR (8.1) stolen bases (34), home runs (39), runs scored (110), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.552), OPS (.939), total bases (319), on-base percentage (.387), extra base hits (81), wRC+ (147), and wOBA (.393). While his .270 batting average hampered his real stats enough that he doesn't quite factor into the MVP conversation, his power/patience/speed combination was among the best in baseball. In fact, he was the first player to hit 30 home runs, steal 30 bases, and draw 100 walks in a season since Bobby Abreu way back in 2004 (though Mike Trout came three home runs away in 2013 and one home run away in 2016). He was fantastic and on pace with Trout and Betts in the first half (.302/.401/.628, 29 HR), but a second half slump (.218/.366/.427, 10 HR) dropped him out of the MVP race.
Others
Alex Bregman (HOU, 31 HR, .286/.394/.532, 10 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR)
J.D. Martinez (BOS, 43 HR, .330/.402/.629, 6 SB, 170 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR)
Francisco Lindor (CLE, 38 HR, .277/.352/.519, 25 SB, 130 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR)
Justin Verlander (HOU, 16-9, 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290/37 K/BB, 214 IP)
Blake Snell (TB, 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221/64 K/BB, 180.2 IP)
National League MVP
Winner: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stats: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 269/46 K/BB, 217 IP in 32 starts
Again, while this wasn't as close as the AL MVP race, choosing a pitcher, in this case Jacob deGrom, ahead of a hitter, in this case Christian Yelich, is always difficult. Not only are comparisons difficult, but it's hard to get over the stigma that the MVP award ~should~ go to a position player. That said, while Yelich had a great season, deGrom was exceptional. In 31 of his 32 starts, he allowed no more than three runs (earned or unearned), and he allowed just four in that one other start. That means that deGrom gave his team the chance to win, without exception, in every single one of his 32 starts. Of course, the Mets' offense and bullpen had other ideas, but that's not deGrom's fault. Yelich was pretty great, but while his season was more in line with typical top-of-the-league production (i.e. typical MVP candidate), deGrom put up one of the finest pitching seasons in recent memory, and that's why I chose him over Yelich. I'll write more in the Cy Young section.
Runner-Up: Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 36 HR, .326/.402/.598, 22 SB, 166 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR in 147 games
In terms of the best position player, Christian Yelich is a fairly easy pick. He led the National League in fWAR (7.6), wRC+ (166), wOBA (.422), batting average (.326), slugging percentage (.598), and total bases (343). With four outs above average in the outfield, he proved to be a positive contributor on defense as well, helping him check all the boxes between power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. Unlike Betts and Trout, who were consistent contributors throughout the season, Yelich was pretty good before the All Star Break (.292/.364/.459, 11 HR) before catching fire for the entire second half of the season. In 65 games post-break, he knocked 25 home runs and slashed .367/.449/.770, with the batting average, slugging percentage, and 1.219 OPS leading all major leaguers after the break. His second half run helped spur the Brewers on a furious chase for the NL Central crown, which they ultimately won in Game 163 as Yelich knocked three hits and stole a base. Yelich also became the first player since Aaron Hill in 2012 and just the fifth ever with two cycles in the same season, with his first cycle on August 29th being his best game of the season: 6-6, three singles, double, triple, home run, three RBI, two runs scored in Brewers' 13-12, extra inning win over the Reds.
Honorable Mention: Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)
Stats: 34 HR, .290/.326/.554, 21 SB, 131 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 160 games
This number three spot was really difficult to choose from, with Javier Baez, Anthony Rendon, and Nolan Arenado all coming very close. In fact, Rendon and Arenado put up virtually identical seasons when taking ballpark into context. Even though Baez's 5.3 fWAR was lower than both Rendon's 6.3 and Arenado's 5.7, I have to go with Baez. The .326 on-base percentage is low, in most cases too low to be considered the third most valuable player in the league and second most valuable position player, but everything else about his game was top notch. He slugged 34 home runs for a very good .554 slugging percentage, stole 21 bases, played great defense, and provided a spark for his team every time he touched the ball. It's that last part that makes me look past the fWAR and let Baez rank ahead of Rendon and Arenado, because Baez made his teammates better and because he simply makes baseball fun. It's good for the Cubs' brand, and while branding shouldn't play a significant role in selecting MVP candidates, it's a nice tiebreaker. It's also cool that his first half (.292/.326/.566) and second half (.289/.326/.540) were virtually identical, which is not common for a player who strikes out as much as Baez does.
Others
Anthony Rendon (WSH, 24 HR, .308/.374/.535, 140 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR)
Nolan Arenado (COL, 38 HR, .297/.374/.561, 132 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR)
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI, 33 HR, .290/.389/.533, 144 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR)
Max Scherzer (WSH, 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 300/51 K/BB, 220.2 IP)
Aaron Nola (PHI, 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 224/58 K/BB, 212.1 IP)
American League Cy Young
Winner: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
Stats: 16-9, 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290/37 K/BB, 214 IP in 34 starts
We're over a year past the trade that sent Justin Verlander from Detroit to Houston, yet it still feels weird to write "Houston Astros" next to his name. Anyways, Verlander's 2.52 ERA may have been the third best in the American League (fourth if you include Chris Sale, who just missed qualifying for the ERA title), but his season was truly remarkable if you look a little bit deeper. Among qualifiers (sorry Chris Sale), he led the AL in games started (34), strikeouts (290), WHIP (0.90), opponents' on base percentage (.242), strikeouts per walk (7.84), and strikeout rate (34.8%) while finishing second in innings (214) and third in ERA (2.52) and walk rate (4.4%). While Blake Snell's ERA is significantly better, Verlander threw far more innings, kept more runners off base, and did so while working with a somewhat less effective defense behind him. Verlander's season itself was fairly streaky, as he began the season on a mad run that saw him with a 7-2 record, a 1.11 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 98/15 strikeout to walk ratio at the end of May. However, from the start of June through the end of August, he went 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, though his K/BB was an excellent 142/17 over 99.2 innings in that stretch. He then closed the season with a 1.09 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 50/5 strikeout to walk ratio in September. I chalk it up to BABIP (luck): his opponents' BABIP was .210 in that first stretch, .249 in the second, and .238 in the third. His best start came on May 2nd, when he kept the Yankees off the board for eight shutout innings, allowing three hits, no walks, and one hit batsmen while striking out 14.
Runner-Up: Blake Snell (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221/64 K/BB, 180.2 IP in 31 starts
On the surface, Blake Snell's numbers look better than Verlander's. I don't care that he won more games, but the ERA is significantly lower (with RA9's checking out similarly between Snell's 2.04 and Verlander's 2.65) is certainly a factor. However, as I explained with Verlander, Snell threw 33.1 fewer innings over three fewer starts, which in and of itself is not a deal breaker, but he also allowed more baserunners (0.97 WHIP to Verlander's 0.90) due to a 9.1% walk rate that was more than double Verlander's 4.4%. His 31.6% strikeout rate was also slightly lower than Verlander's 34.8%, and he had the benefit of slightly better defense behind him. Snell got better and better as the season went on, because as of May 13th, he was 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 53/16 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he turned his season from a good one to a great one right there, going 17-2 with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 168/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings. After the All Star Break, he never allowed more than two runs (earned or unearned) in any single start, his 1.17 ERA and 0.79 WHIP both leading the majors. Overall, that helped him lead the AL in ERA (1.89) and opponents' OPS (.554).
Honorable Mention: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
Stats: 12-4, 2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 237/34 K/BB, 158 IP in 27 starts
Further down the workload chain is Chris Sale, who missed qualifying for the ERA leaderboards by just four innings due to a shoulder injury that limited him to just 17 innings in August and September combined. However, if he did qualify, he would have led the league in WHIP (0.86), opponents' OPS (.532), and strikeout rate (38.4%). Even with that massive strikeout rate, he was able to keep his walk rate down at a very reasonable 5.5%, well below Snell's 9.1%. He is the kind of pitcher where on his best days, he's unhittable, and I'd wager that Sale's best is better than anyone else's best. From June 24th to September 16th, he had the best nine start stretch of any pitcher this season: 6-0, 0.19 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 82/6 K/BB in 48 innings.
Others
Corey Kluber (CLE, 20-7, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 222/34 K/BB)
Gerrit Cole (HOU, 15-5, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 276/64 K/BB)
Trevor Bauer (CLE, 12-6, 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221/57 K/BB)
Blake Treinen (OAK, 9-2, 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 100/21 K/BB)
Mike Clevinger (CLE, 13-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 207/67 K/BB)
National Leauge Cy Young
Winner: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stats: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 269/46 K/BB, 217 IP in 32 starts
I wrote a bit about Jacob deGrom in the MVP section, but I'll expand a bit here. Not only does deGrom deserve this award, but he deserves to be unanimous. It's not even close. The major league ERA leader was untouchable in his 32 starts, allowing three or fewer runs in all but one and allowing just four runs in the other start. In no individual month was his ERA above 2.36, and he never posted a WHIP above 1.07. Literally every time he took the mound, he put the Mets in a position to win. He wasn't streaky and he didn't get blown up from time to time and make up for it with gems. He simply dominated from his first start (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K vs Cardinals) to his last start (8 IP, 0 ER, 10 K vs Braves). Through it all, opponents slashed just .196/.244/.277, their .521 OPS coming out to the MLB's lowest since Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta both allowed a .507 OPS in 2015. This wasn't just the best year by any pitcher this year, but I'd wager it was the best since 2015's Greinke (1.66 ERA, 200/40 K/BB) and Arrieta (1.77 ERA, 236/48 K/BB.
Runner-Up: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 300/51 K/BB, 220.2 IP in 33 starts
Max Scherzer may have had the third best ERA in the National League, but his 0.91 WHIP, 300 strikeouts, 34.6% strikeout rate, and 220.2 innings pitched all led the league. It may have actually been the best year of his Hall of Fame career, yet deGrom was so good that he finishes second here and it's not really that close. He did seem to slide just a bit as the season progressed, beginning with a 1.62 ERA in March/April, a 2.21 ERA in May, 2.31 in June, 3.18 in July, 1.89 in August, and a 4.24 ERA in September. His best start of the season came on April 9th, when he tossed a complete game shutout against the Braves while allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out ten. Overall, opponents slashed just .188/.247/.332 against Scherzer, hitting for some moderate power but otherwise struggling to get on base.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies)
Stats: 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 224/58 K/BB, 212.1 IP in 33 starts
From the start of September, we knew that it was going to be a three horse race for the NL Cy Young Award between deGrom, Scherzer, and Aaron Nola. Nola comes out in third place here, but not by much. His 2.37 ERA beat Scherzer's 2.53 despite poor defense behind him, and by throwing 212.1 innings, his workload was in the same ballpark as deGrom's 217 innings and Scherzer's 220.2. However, his 224/58 K/BB, which is still great, falls behind deGrom's 269/46 and Scherzer's 300/51. Interestingly, Nola only had five scoreless starts all season, instead relying on consistency and never allowing more than four runs, earned or unearned, in a single start. He was like deGrom in that sense, only not as good, in giving the Phillies the chance to win every single time he took the mound. His best start came on July 9th against the Mets, where he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and ten strikeouts in New York.
Others:
Kyle Freeland (COL, 17-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB)
Miles Mikolas (STL, 18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB)
Patrick Corbin (ARI, 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB)
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL, 13-10, 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 202/68 K/BB)
Zack Greinke (ARI, 15-11, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 199/43 K/BB)
American League MVP
Winner: Mookie Betts (Boston Red Sox)
Stats: 32 HR, .346/.438/.640, 30 SB, 185 wRC+, 10.4 fWAR in 136 games
This award is so, so close with Mike Trout and I want so, so badly to give it to him, but I think Mookie Betts has Trout by just a hair. While Trout has the higher on-base percentage (.460 to .438), Betts has the higher slugging percentage (.640 to .628), leading to very similar wOBA's of .449 for Betts and .447 for Trout. Adding in park factors, Trout's 191 wRC+ tops Betts' 185, though Betts' stronger defense helps him win the fWAR battle 10.4 to 9.8. To help confirm the defensive edge for Betts, he recorded ten outs above average (Statcast) to Trout's eight. And, though I don't believe in using team winning percentage to qualify an MVP, it can help be a tiebreaker (but only in absolute ties), and Betts wins there. Again, as much as Trout deserves more MVP awards and as much as I want to give it to him, Betts was just a hair better. Now, to focus on Betts, his season was absolutely phenomenal. With a .346/.438/.640 slash line as well as 30 stolen bases and ten outs above average, he showed not only skill but exceptional proficiency in all facets of the game: power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. Meanwhile, his 14.8% strikeout rate was fairly low for today's standards, especially for a power hitter, and he established himself as arguably the second best player in the game after Trout. His 13.2% walk rate was also a career high. Betts lead the American League in runs (129), batting average (.346), slugging percentage (.640), extra base hits (84), wOBA (.449), and fWAR (10.4) while finishing second in doubles (47), on-base percentage (.438), OPS (1.078), and wRC+ (185). This was mostly possible due to an exceptionally hot stretch from April 1st to May 25th in which he slashed .372/.446/.793 with 17 home runs and a 23/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games. That included his best game of the season on April 17th when he homered three times and walked twice in five trips to the plate in the Red Sox 10-1 win over the Angels, including leading off the game with a home run off Shohei Ohtani.
Runner-Up: Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels)
Stats: 39 HR, .312/.460/.628, 24 SB, 191 wRC+, 9.8 fWAR in 140 games
Another year, another exceptional season from Trout. In fact, his 191 wRC+ and .447 wOBA set career highs in what has likely been his best offensive season ever. This is why it is so difficult for me not to give Trout the MVP award, and it reflects more on Mookie's incredible season than any shortcomings whatsoever for Trout, and Trout remains the best player in the league by far. In 2018, he led the American League in wRC+ (191), walks (122), on-base percentage (.460), and OPS (1.088) while finishing second in wOBA (.447) and fWAR (9.8) and fourth in home runs (39) and batting average (.312). He also added eight outs above average and stole 24 bases, showing, like Betts, the ability to change the game in every facet. He continued his career trend of being completely allergic to slumps, posting an OPS of at least 1.045 in all five full months that he was healthy (.867 in three March games and .873 when missing all but eight August games to injury). He was unstoppable at home (.296/.469/.583) and on the road (.328/.450/.672), against lefties (.292/.452/.540) and righties (.318/.462/.656), and before (.310/.454/.606) and after (.316/.472/.684) the All Star Break. Of note is an eight game stretch in June where he knocked four home runs and slashed .696/.771/1.261 against Seattle, Oakland, and Arizona. He also had his best game of the season on September 8th, when he punished the White Sox by swatting three singles and two home runs as part of a 5-5 performance in the Angels' 12-3 win.
Honorable Mention: Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians)
Stats: 39 HR, .270/.387/.552, 34 SB, 147 wRC+, 8.1 fWAR in 157 games
As with Trout and Betts, the race for third place is exceptionally close between Jose Ramirez and Alex Bregman, though I think Ramirez wins by a hair. He didn't league the league in anything, but he finished in the top five in walks (106), fWAR (8.1) stolen bases (34), home runs (39), runs scored (110), RBI (105), slugging percentage (.552), OPS (.939), total bases (319), on-base percentage (.387), extra base hits (81), wRC+ (147), and wOBA (.393). While his .270 batting average hampered his real stats enough that he doesn't quite factor into the MVP conversation, his power/patience/speed combination was among the best in baseball. In fact, he was the first player to hit 30 home runs, steal 30 bases, and draw 100 walks in a season since Bobby Abreu way back in 2004 (though Mike Trout came three home runs away in 2013 and one home run away in 2016). He was fantastic and on pace with Trout and Betts in the first half (.302/.401/.628, 29 HR), but a second half slump (.218/.366/.427, 10 HR) dropped him out of the MVP race.
Others
Alex Bregman (HOU, 31 HR, .286/.394/.532, 10 SB, 157 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR)
J.D. Martinez (BOS, 43 HR, .330/.402/.629, 6 SB, 170 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR)
Francisco Lindor (CLE, 38 HR, .277/.352/.519, 25 SB, 130 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR)
Justin Verlander (HOU, 16-9, 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290/37 K/BB, 214 IP)
Blake Snell (TB, 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221/64 K/BB, 180.2 IP)
National League MVP
Winner: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stats: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 269/46 K/BB, 217 IP in 32 starts
Again, while this wasn't as close as the AL MVP race, choosing a pitcher, in this case Jacob deGrom, ahead of a hitter, in this case Christian Yelich, is always difficult. Not only are comparisons difficult, but it's hard to get over the stigma that the MVP award ~should~ go to a position player. That said, while Yelich had a great season, deGrom was exceptional. In 31 of his 32 starts, he allowed no more than three runs (earned or unearned), and he allowed just four in that one other start. That means that deGrom gave his team the chance to win, without exception, in every single one of his 32 starts. Of course, the Mets' offense and bullpen had other ideas, but that's not deGrom's fault. Yelich was pretty great, but while his season was more in line with typical top-of-the-league production (i.e. typical MVP candidate), deGrom put up one of the finest pitching seasons in recent memory, and that's why I chose him over Yelich. I'll write more in the Cy Young section.
Runner-Up: Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers)
Stats: 36 HR, .326/.402/.598, 22 SB, 166 wRC+, 7.6 fWAR in 147 games
In terms of the best position player, Christian Yelich is a fairly easy pick. He led the National League in fWAR (7.6), wRC+ (166), wOBA (.422), batting average (.326), slugging percentage (.598), and total bases (343). With four outs above average in the outfield, he proved to be a positive contributor on defense as well, helping him check all the boxes between power, on-base ability, speed, and defense. Unlike Betts and Trout, who were consistent contributors throughout the season, Yelich was pretty good before the All Star Break (.292/.364/.459, 11 HR) before catching fire for the entire second half of the season. In 65 games post-break, he knocked 25 home runs and slashed .367/.449/.770, with the batting average, slugging percentage, and 1.219 OPS leading all major leaguers after the break. His second half run helped spur the Brewers on a furious chase for the NL Central crown, which they ultimately won in Game 163 as Yelich knocked three hits and stole a base. Yelich also became the first player since Aaron Hill in 2012 and just the fifth ever with two cycles in the same season, with his first cycle on August 29th being his best game of the season: 6-6, three singles, double, triple, home run, three RBI, two runs scored in Brewers' 13-12, extra inning win over the Reds.
Honorable Mention: Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)
Stats: 34 HR, .290/.326/.554, 21 SB, 131 wRC+, 5.3 fWAR in 160 games
This number three spot was really difficult to choose from, with Javier Baez, Anthony Rendon, and Nolan Arenado all coming very close. In fact, Rendon and Arenado put up virtually identical seasons when taking ballpark into context. Even though Baez's 5.3 fWAR was lower than both Rendon's 6.3 and Arenado's 5.7, I have to go with Baez. The .326 on-base percentage is low, in most cases too low to be considered the third most valuable player in the league and second most valuable position player, but everything else about his game was top notch. He slugged 34 home runs for a very good .554 slugging percentage, stole 21 bases, played great defense, and provided a spark for his team every time he touched the ball. It's that last part that makes me look past the fWAR and let Baez rank ahead of Rendon and Arenado, because Baez made his teammates better and because he simply makes baseball fun. It's good for the Cubs' brand, and while branding shouldn't play a significant role in selecting MVP candidates, it's a nice tiebreaker. It's also cool that his first half (.292/.326/.566) and second half (.289/.326/.540) were virtually identical, which is not common for a player who strikes out as much as Baez does.
Others
Anthony Rendon (WSH, 24 HR, .308/.374/.535, 140 wRC+, 6.3 fWAR)
Nolan Arenado (COL, 38 HR, .297/.374/.561, 132 wRC+, 5.7 fWAR)
Paul Goldschmidt (ARI, 33 HR, .290/.389/.533, 144 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR)
Max Scherzer (WSH, 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 300/51 K/BB, 220.2 IP)
Aaron Nola (PHI, 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 224/58 K/BB, 212.1 IP)
American League Cy Young
Winner: Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
Stats: 16-9, 2.52 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 290/37 K/BB, 214 IP in 34 starts
We're over a year past the trade that sent Justin Verlander from Detroit to Houston, yet it still feels weird to write "Houston Astros" next to his name. Anyways, Verlander's 2.52 ERA may have been the third best in the American League (fourth if you include Chris Sale, who just missed qualifying for the ERA title), but his season was truly remarkable if you look a little bit deeper. Among qualifiers (sorry Chris Sale), he led the AL in games started (34), strikeouts (290), WHIP (0.90), opponents' on base percentage (.242), strikeouts per walk (7.84), and strikeout rate (34.8%) while finishing second in innings (214) and third in ERA (2.52) and walk rate (4.4%). While Blake Snell's ERA is significantly better, Verlander threw far more innings, kept more runners off base, and did so while working with a somewhat less effective defense behind him. Verlander's season itself was fairly streaky, as he began the season on a mad run that saw him with a 7-2 record, a 1.11 ERA, a 0.71 WHIP, and a 98/15 strikeout to walk ratio at the end of May. However, from the start of June through the end of August, he went 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP, though his K/BB was an excellent 142/17 over 99.2 innings in that stretch. He then closed the season with a 1.09 ERA, a 0.64 WHIP, and a 50/5 strikeout to walk ratio in September. I chalk it up to BABIP (luck): his opponents' BABIP was .210 in that first stretch, .249 in the second, and .238 in the third. His best start came on May 2nd, when he kept the Yankees off the board for eight shutout innings, allowing three hits, no walks, and one hit batsmen while striking out 14.
Runner-Up: Blake Snell (Tampa Bay Rays)
Stats: 21-5, 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 221/64 K/BB, 180.2 IP in 31 starts
On the surface, Blake Snell's numbers look better than Verlander's. I don't care that he won more games, but the ERA is significantly lower (with RA9's checking out similarly between Snell's 2.04 and Verlander's 2.65) is certainly a factor. However, as I explained with Verlander, Snell threw 33.1 fewer innings over three fewer starts, which in and of itself is not a deal breaker, but he also allowed more baserunners (0.97 WHIP to Verlander's 0.90) due to a 9.1% walk rate that was more than double Verlander's 4.4%. His 31.6% strikeout rate was also slightly lower than Verlander's 34.8%, and he had the benefit of slightly better defense behind him. Snell got better and better as the season went on, because as of May 13th, he was 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and a 53/16 strikeout to walk ratio. However, he turned his season from a good one to a great one right there, going 17-2 with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and a 168/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 131.2 innings. After the All Star Break, he never allowed more than two runs (earned or unearned) in any single start, his 1.17 ERA and 0.79 WHIP both leading the majors. Overall, that helped him lead the AL in ERA (1.89) and opponents' OPS (.554).
Honorable Mention: Chris Sale (Boston Red Sox)
Stats: 12-4, 2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 237/34 K/BB, 158 IP in 27 starts
Further down the workload chain is Chris Sale, who missed qualifying for the ERA leaderboards by just four innings due to a shoulder injury that limited him to just 17 innings in August and September combined. However, if he did qualify, he would have led the league in WHIP (0.86), opponents' OPS (.532), and strikeout rate (38.4%). Even with that massive strikeout rate, he was able to keep his walk rate down at a very reasonable 5.5%, well below Snell's 9.1%. He is the kind of pitcher where on his best days, he's unhittable, and I'd wager that Sale's best is better than anyone else's best. From June 24th to September 16th, he had the best nine start stretch of any pitcher this season: 6-0, 0.19 ERA, 0.63 WHIP, 82/6 K/BB in 48 innings.
Others
Corey Kluber (CLE, 20-7, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 222/34 K/BB)
Gerrit Cole (HOU, 15-5, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 276/64 K/BB)
Trevor Bauer (CLE, 12-6, 2.21 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 221/57 K/BB)
Blake Treinen (OAK, 9-2, 0.78 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 100/21 K/BB)
Mike Clevinger (CLE, 13-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 207/67 K/BB)
National Leauge Cy Young
Winner: Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Stats: 10-9, 1.70 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 269/46 K/BB, 217 IP in 32 starts
I wrote a bit about Jacob deGrom in the MVP section, but I'll expand a bit here. Not only does deGrom deserve this award, but he deserves to be unanimous. It's not even close. The major league ERA leader was untouchable in his 32 starts, allowing three or fewer runs in all but one and allowing just four runs in the other start. In no individual month was his ERA above 2.36, and he never posted a WHIP above 1.07. Literally every time he took the mound, he put the Mets in a position to win. He wasn't streaky and he didn't get blown up from time to time and make up for it with gems. He simply dominated from his first start (5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K vs Cardinals) to his last start (8 IP, 0 ER, 10 K vs Braves). Through it all, opponents slashed just .196/.244/.277, their .521 OPS coming out to the MLB's lowest since Zack Greinke and Jake Arrieta both allowed a .507 OPS in 2015. This wasn't just the best year by any pitcher this year, but I'd wager it was the best since 2015's Greinke (1.66 ERA, 200/40 K/BB) and Arrieta (1.77 ERA, 236/48 K/BB.
Runner-Up: Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
Stats: 18-7, 2.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 300/51 K/BB, 220.2 IP in 33 starts
Max Scherzer may have had the third best ERA in the National League, but his 0.91 WHIP, 300 strikeouts, 34.6% strikeout rate, and 220.2 innings pitched all led the league. It may have actually been the best year of his Hall of Fame career, yet deGrom was so good that he finishes second here and it's not really that close. He did seem to slide just a bit as the season progressed, beginning with a 1.62 ERA in March/April, a 2.21 ERA in May, 2.31 in June, 3.18 in July, 1.89 in August, and a 4.24 ERA in September. His best start of the season came on April 9th, when he tossed a complete game shutout against the Braves while allowing just two hits and no walks while striking out ten. Overall, opponents slashed just .188/.247/.332 against Scherzer, hitting for some moderate power but otherwise struggling to get on base.
Honorable Mention: Aaron Nola (Philadelphia Phillies)
Stats: 17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 224/58 K/BB, 212.1 IP in 33 starts
From the start of September, we knew that it was going to be a three horse race for the NL Cy Young Award between deGrom, Scherzer, and Aaron Nola. Nola comes out in third place here, but not by much. His 2.37 ERA beat Scherzer's 2.53 despite poor defense behind him, and by throwing 212.1 innings, his workload was in the same ballpark as deGrom's 217 innings and Scherzer's 220.2. However, his 224/58 K/BB, which is still great, falls behind deGrom's 269/46 and Scherzer's 300/51. Interestingly, Nola only had five scoreless starts all season, instead relying on consistency and never allowing more than four runs, earned or unearned, in a single start. He was like deGrom in that sense, only not as good, in giving the Phillies the chance to win every single time he took the mound. His best start came on July 9th against the Mets, where he tossed seven shutout innings on one hit, one walk, and ten strikeouts in New York.
Others:
Kyle Freeland (COL, 17-7, 2.85 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 173/70 K/BB)
Miles Mikolas (STL, 18-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 146/29 K/BB)
Patrick Corbin (ARI, 11-7, 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246/48 K/BB)
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL, 13-10, 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 202/68 K/BB)
Zack Greinke (ARI, 15-11, 3.21 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 199/43 K/BB)
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