It's not a particularly strong system, but I'd go ahead and say the strength of this system lies in the infield, where Andres Gimenez, Ronny Mauricio, and Brett Baty make up the core of the Mets' future offense. Behind the plate, though, I think 18 year old Francisco Alvarez is absolutely legit. In fact, I think he's at a minimum the fourth best catching prospect in all of baseball, and you could argue him as high as #2 behind only Adley Rutschman. Beyond that, the system is pretty thin in the outfield, and they have a solid if unspectacular group of pitching prospects. I think the organization's strength has been in the international market, where they have found several of their best prospects on the offensive side including Gimenez, Mauricio, Alvarez, Freddy Valdez, and Shervyen Newton.
Affiliates: AAA Syracuse Mets, AA Binghamton Rumble Ponies, High A St. Lucie Mets, Class A Columbia Fireflies, short season Brooklyn Cyclones, rookie level Kingsport Mets, complex level GCL and DSL Mets
Catcher
- Ali Sanchez (2020 Age: 23): Always known for his glove, Sanchez put himself on the map by slashing .265/.294/.387 in A ball in 2018, which isn't anything much but it's enough to get noticed when you're a glove-first catcher. He then hit .278/.337/.337 with one home run and a 52/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 71 games at AA Binghamton in 2019, then struggled to a .179/.277/.250 mark and an 11/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 21 games after a promotion to AAA Syracuse. Sanchez is known exclusively for his glove, as he's one of the minors' best defensive catchers, and that alone will get him to the majors. On the other side, he hits for virtually no impact, with his one saving grace at the plate being that he manages the strike zone well and avoids strikeouts. Sanchez will never be a starting catcher, but with his glove and ability to at least put the ball in play regularly, he could have a long career as a backup.
- Francisco Alvarez (2020 Age: 18): Alvarez signed for $2.7 million out Venezuela in 2018, and his loud first season might have already given him the title of the best teenage catcher in baseball. The Mets skipped him over the Dominican Summer League entirely and sent him straight to the complex level Gulf Coast League in 2019, an aggressive assignment for a 17 year old, and he responded by slashing .462/.548/.846 with a pair of home runs and an even 4/4 strikeout to walk ratio over seven games. That caused the Mets to push him to rookie level Kingsport way ahead of schedule, and he still slashed .282/.377/.443 with five home runs and a 33/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 35 games, where he was one of the youngest players above complex ball anywhere in the minors. He uses an explosive right handed swing to generate above average raw power despite a 5'11" frame, and his exceptional feel for the barrel helps him get to it consistently against older pitching. His defense needs work, but he'll play all of 2020 at 18 years old and there's no reason to think it won't improve. Do not sleep on this kid. He could hit 20+ home runs per season with high on-base percentages in the majors, i.e. a perennial All Star.
- Keep an eye on: Patrick Mazeika, Andres Regnault
Corner Infield
- Will Toffey (2020 Age: 25): Toffey's stock dropped considerably in 2019, but with the same thing happening to fellow upper minors corner infielders Michael Paez and David Thompson, he remains at least relevant in this system. Acquired from the A's in the Jeurys Familia trade in 2018, Toffey slashed .219/.347/.349 with five home runs and a 90/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 91 games at AA Binghamton, and at this point I kind of doubt he'll hit for much impact at the major league level. He's known for his very good defense at third base, which could carry him to the majors, and his patient, mature approach at the plate is certainly a boon. He has some power to go with those on-base skills, though it's nothing special and he wasn't able to get to it often in AA, so at this point he's probably a bench bat.
- Mark Vientos (2020 Age: 20): Vientos was the Mets' second round pick in 2017 out of a South Florida high school, though because he was one of the youngest players in the entire draft, the Mets have brought him along slowly. He reached full season ball in 2019 and slashed .255/.300/.411 with 12 home runs and a 110/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 111 games at Class A Columbia, which might have dinged his stock a little bit but not too much. His strikeout rate jumped from 16.4% to 24.2% while his walk rate dropped from 14.1% to 4.8% as more advanced pitching exploited the holes in his approach, though he did manage to crack 27 doubles and 12 home runs, showing that he was still able to get to his power. He has an explosive swing from the right side and at 6'4", he has some additional natural power to grow into as he's set to play all of 2020 at 20 years old. He's a solid defender at third base, so the biggest thing for him in 2020 will be to get back to his approach at the plate and start hitting the pitches he wants to hit.
- Brett Baty (2020 Age: 20): Ironically, though Baty was the Mets' first round pick out of an Austin-area high school in 2019, he's actually older than Vientos, who was a Mets high school draftee two years earlier. More on that in a second. Baty slashed .234/.368/.452 with seven home runs and a 65/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 51 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League, at rookie level Kingsport, and at short season Brooklyn, though most of his time was spent at Kingsport. It was hard to get an accurate feel for his offensive upside in high school, because he was a year to a year and a half older than the typical high school senior, but he also put on an absolute show with his bat. He has a ton of raw power, that's not questioned, but there were questions as to whether his potentially above-average hit tool was actually above average. He struck out in 28.5% of his plate appearances in his pro debut, so at this point I think we'd have to lower that grade to average or a tick below. 2020 will be more illuminating as he faces full season pitching, and if he acclimates well, he could hit 30+ home runs annually with good on-base percentages. It remains to be seen whether he sticks at third base, but the bat will still profile well at first base.
- Keep an eye on: Will Toffey, Michael Paez, Jaylen Palmer
Middle Infield
- Andres Gimenez (2020 Age: 21): The Mets seem to have a consistent pipeline of high level international shortstop prospects, as Amed Rosario is currently starting up in the big leagues while Andres Gimenez and Ronny Mauricio are coming up through the minors. Gimenez slashed .250/.309/.387 with nine home runs, 28 stolen bases, and a 102/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 games at AA Bingamton, which was a bit of a step back from 2018 (.281/.347/.409) but still satisfactory given he was young for the level. He's tough to strike out and brings a good approach at the plate, and while he won't ever be a power hitter, he might be able to grow into moderate, double digit home run power if he starts to lift the ball a little more. He's also a good runner who plays great defense at shortstop, so it will be interesting to see how the Mets handle him and Rosario defensively, with one perhaps sliding to third base. In that case, it would be very tough to get the ball through the left side of their infield.
- Luis Carpio (2020 Age: 22-23): Carpio is another member of the fly ball revolution, as he hit a combined four home runs in his first five pro seasons before intentionally adding launch angle and hitting 12 in 2018. He didn't reach quite so high in 2019, but he still slashed .282/.361/.380 with four home runs and a 64/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. It was a nice season, because after seeing his strikeout rate rise a bit in 2018 as he tried to hit for more power, he brought it back down again in 2019 while still maintaining some impact. He still doesn't have a ton of pop and probably projects for 5-10 home runs annually in the majors, but he's tough to strike out and should be able to hit for contact and a little bit of extra base pop in the majors. That points to a career as a utility infielder, and his current best position is second base.
- Ronny Mauricio (2020 Age: 19): One of the most advanced 18 year olds in the minors, Mauricio played his first game in full season ball on his 18th birthday and slashed .268/.307/.357 with four home runs, six stolen bases, and a 99/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 games at Class A Columbia. As you would expect for a kid who had put in a full season in Class A by the time he was 18 and a half years old, Mauricio has extremely advanced feel for the game on both sides of the ball. There's little question whether he'll be able to hit for contact and get on base at the highest level, so the questions more revolve around his power. He's a skinny, projectable 6'3", and he did hit 20 doubles and five triples in 2019, but he also only hit four home runs. That's not necessarily a knock against him considering his age, and he did employ a ground ball-oriented approach that will probably need to be altered a bit, but it's enough to say it's not a given that he'll hit for more than average power. I do think adding both launch angle and strength could make him a perennial 20 homer/high on-base guy in the majors, which is certainly a valuable offensive profile. He's a good defender that should be skilled enough to stick at shortstop, but with the presence of Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez in the organization, third base may be his ultimate destination.
- Carlos Cortes (2020 Age: 22-23): Cortes is only listed at 5'7" but inch for inch, he's one of the better hitters in the system. He slashed .255/.336/.397 with 11 home runs and a 77/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 127 games at High A St. Lucie in 2019, very respectable numbers when you consider the pitcher-friendly context of the Florida State League. The South Carolina product has some solid power and it plays up because he controls the strike zone extremely well, enabling him to have a favorable offensive outlook where he could hit 15 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages. However, most of that value is tied to his bat, as he's a mediocre fielder at second base, so his outlook might be more like a bench bat than a true starter, unless he takes another entirely possible step forward with the bat.
- Shervyen Newton (2020 Age: 21): Newton is frustrating as a prospect. He hit well in complex ball in 2017 (.311/.433/.444) and in rookie ball in 2018 (.280/.408/.449), and he showed both plenty of upside and some real flaws when I saw him play for Kingsport in 2018. His strong plate discipline as well as big time power potential were evident, but he also struggled with contact despite the aforementioned plate discipline. Those contact problems caught up to him in 2019, when he slashed .209/.283/.330 with nine home runs and a 139/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Columbia, though he did start to heat up some as the season went on. At 6'4", Newton has a lot of strength and a swing capable of producing above average power, though he hasn't demonstrated the ability to get to it consistently and may face an uphill battle in doing so. His ceiling remains high, but bust risk is rising. He is a good enough defender to play all over the infield and doesn't turn 21 until April, so he has a solid chance of becoming a utility infielder.
- Keep an eye on: Luke Ritter, William Lugo
Outfield
- Tim Tebow (2020 Age: 32-33): I know we all desperately want him to reach the majors, but he hit just .163/.240/.255 with four home runs and a 98/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 77 games at AAA Syracuse before going down with a hand injury in July. At this point it will probably take a daring PR stunt to get him to the majors and a complete, unexpected offensive breakout in order to stick for any period of time.
- Quinn Brodey (2020 Age: 24): In a system that's really lacking on upper-level outfielders, Stanford product and 2017 third rounder Quinn Brodey has done just enough to stand out. In 2019, he slashed .266/.323/.403 with ten home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 107/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton, showing fringy to average tools across the board. He makes consistent hard contact, and while he doesn't have a ton of raw power, he can drive the ball consistently and that should manifest into plenty of extra base hits and moderate home run pop. He also cut his strikeout rate a bit this year, and together that gives him an offensive profile of ten or so home runs annually with a decent on-base percentage and enough gap power to keep pitchers honest. He runs decently and can handle the outfield corners fairly well, giving him an overall fourth outfielder profile and the chance to get some regular starts against right handed pitching.
- Jake Mangum (2020 Age: 24): To be honest, I'm not sure that Mangum, who will begin his first full pro season at 24 years old, is going to be much more than a potential fourth/fifth outfielder. That said, you have to love this kid. He was a potential top five rounds pick as a draft-eligible sophomore at Mississippi State in 2017, but elected to return for his junior year. Afterwards, he stated he had unfinished business in Starkville and again turned down being a potential top five round pick in 2018, heading back for his senior season in 2019. Finally, after an illustrious career as potentially the most popular player in not only Mississippi State history, but in SEC baseball history as a whole, he finally accepted a fourth round selection to the Mets and slashed .247/.337/.297 with 17 stolen bases and a 26/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games at short season Brooklyn. Mangum is an 80 grade (top of the scale) leader with an 80 grade work ethic, one who plays his heart out on the field and leaves nothing in the tank. In an actual baseball sense, he doesn't have much to offer in the way of power, but he has great feel for the barrel and can spray line drives around the field with ease. Defensively, he's great all around in center field with his arm and range, and his speed helps him on both sides of the ball. His ceiling is limited due to the lack of power, but his work ethic should help his tools play up.
- Freddy Valdez (2020 Age: 18): Valdez signed for $1.45 million in 2018 and had a moderately successful first season, slashing .274/.367/.448 with six home runs, six stolen bases, and a 49/31 strikeout to walk ratio over 60 games, mostly in the Dominican Summer League but with a few games in the Gulf Coast League. His carrying tool has been the natural pop in his 6'3" frame and leveraged swing, but he showed a patient enough approach this year to engender some confidence that he'll be able to get to that power at higher levels. Valdez is still very, very far off, but he'll play all of 2020 at 18 years old and he'll hopefully be able to refine his approach further to max that power.
- Keep an eye on: Desmond Lindsay, Wagner Lagrange, Antoine Duplantis, Scott Ota, Adrian Hernandez, Alexander Ramirez
Starting Pitching
- David Peterson (2020 Age: 24): With Anthony Kay gone to the Blue Jays, David Peterson becomes to the top pitching prospect in the Mets' upper minors. A first round pick out of Oregon in 2017, he posted a 4.19 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and a 122/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 116 innings at AA Binghamton in 2019. Though he's 6'6", he doesn't actually throw that hard, scraping the low 90's with his fastball while relying more on his secondary stuff and command. His curveball is his out pitch, a big time downer that has missed bats consistently for him since college, while his changeup also elicits swings and misses and he adds a show-me slider to keep hitters honest. He also has arguably the best command in the system (a title he shares with Jordan Humphreys), which is especially important considering his fringy velocity, and it should enable him to become a #3 or a #4 starter if he can effectively mix his pitches at the next level and keep generating a lot of ground balls.
- Kevin Smith (2020 Age: 22-23): Like Peterson, Smith is a tall lefty, though Smith was a seventh round pick out of Georgia in 2018. He turned a lot of heads in 2019, when he posted a 3.15 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 130/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at High A St. Lucie and AA Binghamton. He's become more of a complete pitcher since being drafted, sitting in the low 90's with his fastball, adding a good slider, and improving his changeup considerably. His solid command helped it all play up, though he'll probably have to take another step forward with either the stuff or the command if he wants to become a #4 or #5 big league starter. If not, he could be an effective left handed reliever with a touch more velocity.
- Harol Gonzalez (2020 Age: 25): Gonzalez, a previously unheralded prospect who managed to go 1-16 in 2018, had a huge breakout year in 2019 to put himself firmly on the map. This year, he posted a 3.01 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP, and a 112/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 137.2 innings at AA Binghamton and AAA Syracuse, perhaps most impressively holding a 2.68 ERA in the hitter-friendly AAA International League. He doesn't necessarily have swing and miss stuff, sitting a tick above 90 with his fastball and adding a solid bending curveball and a fading changeup, but he commands everything very well and that enabled his breakout. He was a bit homer-happy in 2019, allowing 20 on the year and eight in just 40.1 innings in AAA, which is proof that his unremarkable stuff doesn't give him much margin for error in his command. He probably profiles as a #5 starter or a long reliever, but he'll be ready in 2020.
- Thomas Szapucki (2020 Age: 23-24): Szapucki, the Mets' fifth round pick out of a South Florida high school in 2015, has shown tantalizing stuff when healthy but he's also never cracked 62 innings in a season. In 2019, making his return from Tommy John surgery, he posted a 2.63 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 72/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.2 innings at Class A Columbia, High A St. Lucie, and AA Binghamton. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a wicked curveball that's nearly impossible to square up. He also has a changeup that has looked good at times, but the injuries have slowed its development. The Mets handled him carefully in his return from surgery in 2019 and we'll have to see how they deploy him in 2020, but if he can manage to stay healthy for some long stretches of time, he could be a legitimate #2 or #3 starter. However, he has a lot of work to do and currently projects as more of a #3 or a #4 if he can stay moderately healthy, and a switch to the bullpen is not off the table. The lefty could be especially dominant there with his electric stuff.
- Franklyn Kilome (2020 Age: 24-25): Kilome was acquired from the Phillies for Asdrubal Cabrera in 2018, but he went down with Tommy John surgery seven starts into his Mets minor league career and missed the entire 2019 season. He's a 6'6" righty with a big, mid 90's fastball and a good curveball, though his changeup and command have been inconsistent and it has caused his stuff to play down somewhat. The Mets' hope was that a change of scenery might do him good, and it still may once he comes back hopefully healthy in 2020. More likely, though, is that he shifts to the bullpen and hopefully takes a step forward with his stuff.
- Tony Dibrell (2020 Age: 24): Dibrell, the Mets' fourth round pick out of Kennesaw State in 2017, has moved relatively slowly for an early-round college pitcher, spending his first full season entirely in Class A. He started 2019 at High A St. Lucie, where he was dominant in posting a 2.39 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a 76/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 90.1 innings. However, he was not nearly as effective after a promotion to AA Binghamton, where opposing hitters punished his mistakes and he posted a 9.31 ERA, a 1.86 WHIP, and a 37/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings. He comes at you with a low 90's fastball and a full array of secondary pitches, all of which can be effective, though he has been a bit inconsistent with his command. Dibrell gets some added deception due to a late hop in his delivery just before he releases the ball, and if he wants to be a major league starter, he probably a) needs to sharpen one of his offspeed pitches into a true out pitch or b) improve his command a tick.
- Jordan Humphreys (2020 Age: 23-24): Humphreys, an 18th round pick out of high school in the small town of Crystal River, Florida in 2015, put up a 1.79 ERA in A ball in 2017 before going down with Tommy John surgery in 2018, which wiped out his entire season and all but two innings of his 2019 season. It's been a while since we saw the 6'2" right hander pitch in the minors, but we do know the general scouting report. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a full array of secondary pitches, none of which particularly stand out as out pitches. However, he has some of the best command in the system (sharing the title with David Peterson), and that makes his stuff play way up. Peterson has the leg up with a plus curveball, but if he can stay healthy, Humphreys has a very good shot to work his way up as a #4 or #5 starter.
- Matthew Allan (2020 Age: 19): Allan may have gone in the third round out of an Orlando-area high school in 2019, but he signed for first round money and there's no doubt he's a first round talent. To be honest, I think he was the best high school pitcher in his class and it wasn't particularly close. Allan sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds two above average secondaries in a curveball and a changeup, both of which have the potential to be plus pitches. His command is fairly advanced for a high school pitcher as well and at 6'3", he has some projection remaining, giving him a great combination of both floor and ceiling for the notably volatile demographic of high school pitcher. If he can stay healthy, Allan has top of the rotation potential and honestly a pretty safe chance to at least be a back-end starter. Assuming health, he should move quickly for a high school pitcher. In his pro debut, he had a 2.61 ERA, a 1.45 WHIP, and a 14/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 10.1 innings in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at short season Brooklyn.
- Josh Wolf (2020 Age: 19): Wolf was selected a around earlier than Allan, in the second round out of a Houston high school in 2019, though he signed for a few hundred thousand dollars less ($2.5 million to $2.15 million). He's a very skinny 6'3" with some room to add good weight, though his frame is a bit slight and I'm not sure how much he can add. He is, on the other hand, clearly trending in the right direction, as his stuff improved his senior year and he now sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball while adding a very good curveball and an improving changeup. His command is inconsistent this point due to the fact that he can occasionally lose his arm slot, but pro refinement should make that a fairly easy fix and he should have above average command in time, giving him a ceiling as a #2 or a #3 starter and a moderately high floor, of course assuming health. In his pro debut, he had a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 12/1 strikeout to walk ratio over eight innings in the Gulf Coast League.
- Junior Santos (2020 Age: 18): Santos is 6'8", so before we go any further, there's that. In 2019, he had a 5.09 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, and a 36/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 40.2 innings at rookie level Kingsport, mediocre numbers on the surface until you realize he was 17 years old for eleven of his fourteen starts. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and should be able to add more velocity, and his secondary pitches are raw but that's expected for a kid his age. He also manages the strike zone very well for a young teenager, so don't let the 25 walks in 40.1 innings fool you. Santos has a ton of upside but also a very low floor, and he could really turn out to be anything so there's no use in projecting him. Instead, he's just one to track.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Gonsalves, Luc Rennie, Christian James, Nathan Jones
Relief Pitching
- Ryley Gilliam (2020 age: 23-24): Fastball/curveball/mediocre command -> go. That's what makes a big league reliever, right? Gilliam is only 5'10", but he can sit in the mid to upper 90's with his fastball and adds a great power curveball, and he's carried those two weapons with him up to the top of the minors. He was drafted in the fifth round out of Clemson in 2018, then posted a 6.05 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and a 56/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 38.2 innings at High A St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Syracuse in 2019, though his numbers were hurt by that run in AAA. Still, his stuff was enough to completely overwhelm High A hitters and he held his own in AA a year out of college, so with a little more seasoning, he has a good chance to crack the Mets bullpen at some point in 2020. The command is mediocre, but the stuff is good enough to work in short stints if he can just figure out how to pitch around that mediocre command (though improving it up to near-average would be helpful).
- Dedniel Nunez (2020 Age: 23-24): Most top Dominican prospects sign when they're 16 or 17, but Nunez but didn't get the chance until he was 20 years old. After a couple of unremarkable seasons to begin his career, he broke out in 2019 with a 4.39 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a 94/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 80 innings at Class A Columbia and High A St. Lucie, officially putting himself on the map as an arm to watch. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a rapidly improving curveball, and while he lacks much of a changeup, his command is strong enough to make his stuff play up a bit. He still has an outside chance at starting if he can get that changeup up to average and maybe improve his command just a tick, but he's set to turn 24 in June and the best path forward might be to jump to the bullpen and allow his fastball/curveball combination to play up.
- Keep an eye on: Stephen Villines, Joe Cavallaro, Jared Biddy
Showing posts with label Brett Baty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brett Baty. Show all posts
Thursday, December 19, 2019
Friday, July 5, 2019
2019 Draft Review: New York Mets
First five rounds: Brett Baty (1-12), Josh Wolf (2-53), Matthew Allan (3-89), Jake Mangum (4-118), Nathan Jones (5-148)
Also notable: Luke Ritter (7-208), Antoine Duplantis (12-358), Hunter Barco (24-718)
The Mets had a fairly unorthodox strategy here, but ultimately, I like the end product. After going a little underslot with first rounder Brett Baty, they splurged and spent a combined $4.65 million on their second and third round picks – about $2.5 million total above slot – and then proceeded to take seven straight college seniors to save money. After spending a total of $8.55 million on those first three high schoolers, those seven seniors cost them a combined $62,000. Funny what a little leverage can do for you. Brett Baty, Josh Wolf, and Matthew Allan all have tremendous ceilings and are certainly premium talents, but there were some interesting guys taken later on. Of course, nobody can ever say enough about Mississippi State legend Jake Mangum, who finishes college baseball as the SEC's all time hits leader and as possibly the most popular player the league has ever seen. Either way, it's clear that the Mets are significantly invested in these three high schoolers, and the success of this draft will hinge on them.
1-12: 3B Brett Baty (Lake Travis HS [TX], my rank: 21)
Brett Baty is a polarizing prospect, but his immense upside and the bit of savings the Mets got here makes him a worthwhile gamble in the top half of the first round. Baty played alongside Dodgers second rounder Jimmy Lewis for Lake Travis High School near Austin, and he took off by hitting everything in sight during his senior year of high school. He's 6'3" and generates easy plus power from the left side, and he got to it very consistently this spring, so his hit tool looks like a plus for now as well. However, his stock takes a big hit when you consider his age, as he turned 19 in November and is a year to a year and a half older than most high school seniors. Scouts have to weigh that in when considering the way he produced in 2019, it will be very interesting to see how he does against more age-appropriate competition. If Baty shrugs off the age thing and hits like he very well may have the ability to, he could hit 25-30 or more home runs per season with fairly high on-base percentages, making him a true middle of the order threat. He has a cannon arm at third base ubt his glove is a bit uncertain, so it remains to be seen whether he sticks at the hot corner or is forced over to first base. Baty signed away from a Texas commitment for $3.9 million, which was $470,000 below slot, and he's slashing .259/.394/.481 with a home run and a 12/6 strikeout to walk ratio over seven minor league games, five of which came in the complex-level Gulf Coast League and two of which were with rookie-level Kingsport.
2-53: RHP Josh Wolf (St. Thomas HS [TX], my rank: 43)
Josh Wolf saw his stock climb this spring as scouts saw the progress he made. The Houston native is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good curveball, one which generates a lot of swings and misses. His changeup is coming along as well, and while he loses his arm slot occasionally and that can impact his command, he generally fills the strike zone and certainly can't be considered wild. He's very skinny and doesn't look like he has a ton of room to add weight, but he already has plenty of arm strength and may not need to add that much if he wants to remain a starter. He also supposedly has a strong work ethic and that has helped him consistently get better, and he has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter and a good shot to be at least a #4. Wolf signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for $2.15 million, which was $780,000 above slot.
3-89: RHP Matthew Allan (Seminole HS [FL], my rank: 12)
Mets fans should be ecstatic that they were able to land Matthew Allan here, who could have easily gone in the first round. With a strong Florida commitment, Orlando-area high schooler was reportedly asking for upwards of $4 million for his signing bonus and slipped out of Day One, but apparently there was some wiggle room and the Mets were able to land him for less, though still massively overslot for this part of the draft. Allan, in my opinion, was the top high school pitcher in the country this year, coming in with a mid 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and a changeup with solid drop. His command isn't pinpoint but it's safely above average, and with an easy delivery and a 6'3" frame, he checks all the boxes that you're looking for in a future impact starter. While I'm not sure he'll ever end up a true ace, Allan has a very good chance to be a #2 or a #3 starter so long as his command holds up. He signed for $2.5 million, which was more than $1.83 million above slot.
4-118: OF Jake Mangum (Mississippi State, unranked)
Their pocketbooks virtually empty after drafting three pricey high schoolers, the Mets started a long run of college seniors with perhaps the most exciting player in college baseball. I'm not talking about Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, but rather Mississippi State's Jake Mangum, who has become the face of college baseball over the past couple of seasons. Very old for his class, he was drafted by the Yankees as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2017, but he turned them down to return to Starkville for his junior season. The Mets drafted him as a 22 year old junior in 2018, but he again turned them down to return to school. Now, he emerges after four years as the SEC's all time hits leader and perhaps the most popular player in Mississippi State history, quite the feat when you consider all the talent that has come through the program from Rafael Palmeiro and Will Clark to Jonathan Papelbon, Mitch Moreland, and Brent Rooker. Mangum, from the Jackson area, slashed .408/.458/.510 as a freshman and never looked back, hitting at least .324 every season and capping it off with a .358/.417/.467 line, one home run, 22 stolen bases, and a 24/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games for the Bulldogs this season. Mangum is a switch hitter with great bat to ball skills and the ability to spray line drives all over the park, though he is strictly a contact hitter and you'd be lucky to get 5-10 home runs per season out of him. Once he puts the ball in play, he's very fast and can use his speed well on the bases, and it also suits him well in the outfield, where he has a strong arm and should be an above average center fielder. Having turned 23 in March, he's much older than most of his draft peers even at the college level, so he'll want to move quickly. Overall, that equates out to a fourth outfielder projection given his age. However, the biggest thing you're getting with Mangum isn't his hit tool or his run tool. His work ethic and leadership qualities are off the charts, and even that's an understatement. The unquestioned captain of not only his team but probably of all of college baseball, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who worked harder, played harder, and who poured more of their soul into not only improving themselves, but everyone around them. Jake Mangum was to Mississippi State what the media played Derek Jeter up to be to the Yankees, and while he never won the College World Series with the Bulldogs (he came close on a few occasions), there's no doubt he has laid the groundwork for that to happen in the near future. As a senior with very little leverage, Mangum signed for $20,000, which was $467,900 below slot, and he's slashing .235/.278/.294 through his first four games at short season Brooklyn.
5-148: RHP Nathan Jones (Northwestern State, unranked)
It was hard for me to find information or video on Nathan Jones, though I've got a little bit. Jones was lightly recruited out of a Shreveport high school and ended up at Northwestern State in Natchitoches, Louisiana, where he relieved his freshman year before starting for the last three seasons. The 6'1" righty put up a 2.78 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an 80/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings, tossing two complete game shutouts along the way. I don't know anything about his stuff, but given his college numbers, he may have a chance to try to crack it as a #4 or #5 starter with his solid command and proven durability. He signed for $10,000, which was $254,400 below slot, and he tossed two shutout innings while striking out five in his first game with Brooklyn.
7-208: 2B Luke Ritter (Wichita State, unranked)
Luke Ritter has been a big performer for Wichita State over the past two years, slashing .341/.420/.484 as a junior before bumping it up to .333/.458/.545 with nine home runs and a 39/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games as a senior. The Kansas City native is only 5'11" but he has some pop from a powerful swing, and he greatly improved his plate discipline in 2019 to the point where it should be a net positive in his development. He's not great defensively, but he's not a butcher either and should be able to stick at second base, where he'll likely serve as a bench bat at the major league level if he gets there. He does have some offensive upside, making him a sleeper to track and a guy who could surprise if he takes to pro ball well, so his ceiling is not limited to a reserve role despite the fact that he turned 22 in February as a college senior. Ritter signed for $10,000, which was $206,600 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.348/.429 with a pair of home runs and a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games with Brooklyn.
12-358: OF Antoine Duplantis (Louisiana State, unranked)
The Mets grabbed Mississippi State's all time hits leader (and the SEC's all time leader) in Jake Mangum and his 383 hits, so they went ahead and grabbed another big program leader in Antoine Duplantis, who set the LSU all time hits record with 359. And of course, that LSU program has produced hitters like Albert Belle, Todd Walker, Aaron Hill, and Alex Bregman (as well as the previous hits leader Eddy Furniss), so Duplantis coming out on top is no small feat. Duplantis slashed .324/.376/.505 with eleven home runs and a 30/21 strikeout to walk ratio as a senior this year, and when you pair him with Mangum, the Mets picked up two of the greatest leadoff hitters in SEC history. Unlike Mangum, Duplantis has the ability to turn on the ball and drive it over the fence, but at a skinny 5'11", he ultimately does not project for much power in pro ball because he is much more inclined to use his quick, compact swing to spray line drives around the field. The Lafayette, Louisiana native has good range in the outfield, but with a mediocre arm, he doesn't profile as more than an average center fielder, if he sticks there. Overall, that looks like a fourth outfielder profile because he doesn't place the bat on the ball quite so effortlessly as Mangum, but he still should hit for high averages. Duplantis signed for $85,000 and is slashing .136/.174/.182 with five strikeouts to one walk over his first five games at Brooklyn.
24-718: LHP Hunter Barco (Bolles HS [FL], my rank: 33)
With the Mets spending a boatload of bonus pool money to sign second rounder Josh Wolf and third rounder Matthew Allan, Hunter Barco won't sign here, and he'll instead head to Florida, where Allan was committed. The Jacksonville high schooler's stock has been anything but steady, as he shined on the showcase circuit between his sophomore and junior years of high school to put himself on the map as a potential top ten overall pick in early, early mock drafts. However, he was only so-so this past summer, not too dissimilarly to Brewers 2018 first rounder Brice Turang, and his stock fell a little bit. He came out of the gate looking better this spring, but he also dealt with minor shoulder problems and ultimately his stock leveled off in the compensation round-area, in the pick 35-45 range. Ultimately, though his asking price was too high for teams to be comfortable with and he'll look to find consistency as a Gator. Barco is a 6'4" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a slider that flashes plus, and an advanced splitter, but his mechanics have been inconsistent and that affects not only his command but his stuff. Barco throws from a low three quarter arm slot with a cross-body delivery, and at times his arm falls down to almost sidearm and his stuff flattens out. The Florida coaching staff is going to have to work with him on that, but with that projectable 6'4" frame, three potential plus pitches, and left handedness, he has a very high ceiling.
Also notable: Luke Ritter (7-208), Antoine Duplantis (12-358), Hunter Barco (24-718)
The Mets had a fairly unorthodox strategy here, but ultimately, I like the end product. After going a little underslot with first rounder Brett Baty, they splurged and spent a combined $4.65 million on their second and third round picks – about $2.5 million total above slot – and then proceeded to take seven straight college seniors to save money. After spending a total of $8.55 million on those first three high schoolers, those seven seniors cost them a combined $62,000. Funny what a little leverage can do for you. Brett Baty, Josh Wolf, and Matthew Allan all have tremendous ceilings and are certainly premium talents, but there were some interesting guys taken later on. Of course, nobody can ever say enough about Mississippi State legend Jake Mangum, who finishes college baseball as the SEC's all time hits leader and as possibly the most popular player the league has ever seen. Either way, it's clear that the Mets are significantly invested in these three high schoolers, and the success of this draft will hinge on them.
1-12: 3B Brett Baty (Lake Travis HS [TX], my rank: 21)
Brett Baty is a polarizing prospect, but his immense upside and the bit of savings the Mets got here makes him a worthwhile gamble in the top half of the first round. Baty played alongside Dodgers second rounder Jimmy Lewis for Lake Travis High School near Austin, and he took off by hitting everything in sight during his senior year of high school. He's 6'3" and generates easy plus power from the left side, and he got to it very consistently this spring, so his hit tool looks like a plus for now as well. However, his stock takes a big hit when you consider his age, as he turned 19 in November and is a year to a year and a half older than most high school seniors. Scouts have to weigh that in when considering the way he produced in 2019, it will be very interesting to see how he does against more age-appropriate competition. If Baty shrugs off the age thing and hits like he very well may have the ability to, he could hit 25-30 or more home runs per season with fairly high on-base percentages, making him a true middle of the order threat. He has a cannon arm at third base ubt his glove is a bit uncertain, so it remains to be seen whether he sticks at the hot corner or is forced over to first base. Baty signed away from a Texas commitment for $3.9 million, which was $470,000 below slot, and he's slashing .259/.394/.481 with a home run and a 12/6 strikeout to walk ratio over seven minor league games, five of which came in the complex-level Gulf Coast League and two of which were with rookie-level Kingsport.
2-53: RHP Josh Wolf (St. Thomas HS [TX], my rank: 43)
Josh Wolf saw his stock climb this spring as scouts saw the progress he made. The Houston native is a 6'2" righty that sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and adds a very good curveball, one which generates a lot of swings and misses. His changeup is coming along as well, and while he loses his arm slot occasionally and that can impact his command, he generally fills the strike zone and certainly can't be considered wild. He's very skinny and doesn't look like he has a ton of room to add weight, but he already has plenty of arm strength and may not need to add that much if he wants to remain a starter. He also supposedly has a strong work ethic and that has helped him consistently get better, and he has the ceiling of a #2 or #3 starter and a good shot to be at least a #4. Wolf signed away from a Texas A&M commitment for $2.15 million, which was $780,000 above slot.
3-89: RHP Matthew Allan (Seminole HS [FL], my rank: 12)
Mets fans should be ecstatic that they were able to land Matthew Allan here, who could have easily gone in the first round. With a strong Florida commitment, Orlando-area high schooler was reportedly asking for upwards of $4 million for his signing bonus and slipped out of Day One, but apparently there was some wiggle room and the Mets were able to land him for less, though still massively overslot for this part of the draft. Allan, in my opinion, was the top high school pitcher in the country this year, coming in with a mid 90's fastball, a very good curveball, and a changeup with solid drop. His command isn't pinpoint but it's safely above average, and with an easy delivery and a 6'3" frame, he checks all the boxes that you're looking for in a future impact starter. While I'm not sure he'll ever end up a true ace, Allan has a very good chance to be a #2 or a #3 starter so long as his command holds up. He signed for $2.5 million, which was more than $1.83 million above slot.
4-118: OF Jake Mangum (Mississippi State, unranked)
Their pocketbooks virtually empty after drafting three pricey high schoolers, the Mets started a long run of college seniors with perhaps the most exciting player in college baseball. I'm not talking about Oregon State's Adley Rutschman, but rather Mississippi State's Jake Mangum, who has become the face of college baseball over the past couple of seasons. Very old for his class, he was drafted by the Yankees as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2017, but he turned them down to return to Starkville for his junior season. The Mets drafted him as a 22 year old junior in 2018, but he again turned them down to return to school. Now, he emerges after four years as the SEC's all time hits leader and perhaps the most popular player in Mississippi State history, quite the feat when you consider all the talent that has come through the program from Rafael Palmeiro and Will Clark to Jonathan Papelbon, Mitch Moreland, and Brent Rooker. Mangum, from the Jackson area, slashed .408/.458/.510 as a freshman and never looked back, hitting at least .324 every season and capping it off with a .358/.417/.467 line, one home run, 22 stolen bases, and a 24/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games for the Bulldogs this season. Mangum is a switch hitter with great bat to ball skills and the ability to spray line drives all over the park, though he is strictly a contact hitter and you'd be lucky to get 5-10 home runs per season out of him. Once he puts the ball in play, he's very fast and can use his speed well on the bases, and it also suits him well in the outfield, where he has a strong arm and should be an above average center fielder. Having turned 23 in March, he's much older than most of his draft peers even at the college level, so he'll want to move quickly. Overall, that equates out to a fourth outfielder projection given his age. However, the biggest thing you're getting with Mangum isn't his hit tool or his run tool. His work ethic and leadership qualities are off the charts, and even that's an understatement. The unquestioned captain of not only his team but probably of all of college baseball, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who worked harder, played harder, and who poured more of their soul into not only improving themselves, but everyone around them. Jake Mangum was to Mississippi State what the media played Derek Jeter up to be to the Yankees, and while he never won the College World Series with the Bulldogs (he came close on a few occasions), there's no doubt he has laid the groundwork for that to happen in the near future. As a senior with very little leverage, Mangum signed for $20,000, which was $467,900 below slot, and he's slashing .235/.278/.294 through his first four games at short season Brooklyn.
5-148: RHP Nathan Jones (Northwestern State, unranked)
It was hard for me to find information or video on Nathan Jones, though I've got a little bit. Jones was lightly recruited out of a Shreveport high school and ended up at Northwestern State in Natchitoches, Louisiana, where he relieved his freshman year before starting for the last three seasons. The 6'1" righty put up a 2.78 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and an 80/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 81 innings, tossing two complete game shutouts along the way. I don't know anything about his stuff, but given his college numbers, he may have a chance to try to crack it as a #4 or #5 starter with his solid command and proven durability. He signed for $10,000, which was $254,400 below slot, and he tossed two shutout innings while striking out five in his first game with Brooklyn.
7-208: 2B Luke Ritter (Wichita State, unranked)
Luke Ritter has been a big performer for Wichita State over the past two years, slashing .341/.420/.484 as a junior before bumping it up to .333/.458/.545 with nine home runs and a 39/36 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games as a senior. The Kansas City native is only 5'11" but he has some pop from a powerful swing, and he greatly improved his plate discipline in 2019 to the point where it should be a net positive in his development. He's not great defensively, but he's not a butcher either and should be able to stick at second base, where he'll likely serve as a bench bat at the major league level if he gets there. He does have some offensive upside, making him a sleeper to track and a guy who could surprise if he takes to pro ball well, so his ceiling is not limited to a reserve role despite the fact that he turned 22 in February as a college senior. Ritter signed for $10,000, which was $206,600 below slot, and he's slashing .250/.348/.429 with a pair of home runs and a 13/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 16 games with Brooklyn.
12-358: OF Antoine Duplantis (Louisiana State, unranked)
The Mets grabbed Mississippi State's all time hits leader (and the SEC's all time leader) in Jake Mangum and his 383 hits, so they went ahead and grabbed another big program leader in Antoine Duplantis, who set the LSU all time hits record with 359. And of course, that LSU program has produced hitters like Albert Belle, Todd Walker, Aaron Hill, and Alex Bregman (as well as the previous hits leader Eddy Furniss), so Duplantis coming out on top is no small feat. Duplantis slashed .324/.376/.505 with eleven home runs and a 30/21 strikeout to walk ratio as a senior this year, and when you pair him with Mangum, the Mets picked up two of the greatest leadoff hitters in SEC history. Unlike Mangum, Duplantis has the ability to turn on the ball and drive it over the fence, but at a skinny 5'11", he ultimately does not project for much power in pro ball because he is much more inclined to use his quick, compact swing to spray line drives around the field. The Lafayette, Louisiana native has good range in the outfield, but with a mediocre arm, he doesn't profile as more than an average center fielder, if he sticks there. Overall, that looks like a fourth outfielder profile because he doesn't place the bat on the ball quite so effortlessly as Mangum, but he still should hit for high averages. Duplantis signed for $85,000 and is slashing .136/.174/.182 with five strikeouts to one walk over his first five games at Brooklyn.
24-718: LHP Hunter Barco (Bolles HS [FL], my rank: 33)
With the Mets spending a boatload of bonus pool money to sign second rounder Josh Wolf and third rounder Matthew Allan, Hunter Barco won't sign here, and he'll instead head to Florida, where Allan was committed. The Jacksonville high schooler's stock has been anything but steady, as he shined on the showcase circuit between his sophomore and junior years of high school to put himself on the map as a potential top ten overall pick in early, early mock drafts. However, he was only so-so this past summer, not too dissimilarly to Brewers 2018 first rounder Brice Turang, and his stock fell a little bit. He came out of the gate looking better this spring, but he also dealt with minor shoulder problems and ultimately his stock leveled off in the compensation round-area, in the pick 35-45 range. Ultimately, though his asking price was too high for teams to be comfortable with and he'll look to find consistency as a Gator. Barco is a 6'4" lefty with a low 90's fastball, a slider that flashes plus, and an advanced splitter, but his mechanics have been inconsistent and that affects not only his command but his stuff. Barco throws from a low three quarter arm slot with a cross-body delivery, and at times his arm falls down to almost sidearm and his stuff flattens out. The Florida coaching staff is going to have to work with him on that, but with that projectable 6'4" frame, three potential plus pitches, and left handedness, he has a very high ceiling.
Saturday, May 18, 2019
2019 Draft Preview: Third Basemen
There aren't any top-flight third basemen available, but once you dip into the middle/back of the first round and into the second and third, lots of options begin to emerge, especially on the college side. Some of these guys might need to move to first base long term (plus Tyler Callihan, who was included in the first base section), where pressure would rise on their bats, but all have at least a solid shot at sticking there. Most of these guys are power over hit, though Josh Jung and some of the third tier guys are notable exceptions to that.
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
Tier I: Josh Jung, Brett Baty
There are no third basemen that appear to have a chance at the top ten picks, though two are likely to go somewhere in the middle of the first round. Josh Jung had top ten aspirations early in the season after an exceptional sophomore season at Texas Tech (12 HR, .392/.491/.639, 32/39 K/BB), but his numbers have been down just a hair in his junior season (9 HR, .339/.472/.607, 34/45 K/BB through 48 games). Jung (pronounced "young") has the potential to be an all-around impact hitter, as he has great feel for the barrel and makes consistent hard contact, though his power stroke comes and goes and evaluators would like to see him leave the yard just a bit more consistently. Still, his strength and hand-eye coordination give him a very good shot at adding power in pro ball, where he could hit 20-30 home runs per season with high on-base percentages. Defensively, his strong arm keeps him at third base for now, but he'll have to get more athletic around the bag. On the high school side, fellow Texan Brett Baty is somewhat of a polarizing prospect. He shows tremendous raw power in batting practice and has no trouble getting to it against pretty good high school pitching in the Austin area, and he has enough contact and on-base ability that he should continue to get to it in pro ball. However, he's also one of the oldest high schoolers available, having turned 19 back in November, and that gives some evaluators pause when comparing him to other seniors often a year to a year and a half younger than him. The age problem will push Baty out of the top ten and very possibly out of the top fifteen, but the bat is still so good that he won't fall much farther than that. Defensively, he has a similar profile to Jung with a strong arm and decent agility.
Tier II: Kody Hoese, Keoni Cavaco, Rece Hinds
The second tier obviously comes with a bit more risk than the first tier, but these are still three very solid players who can make a serious impact. Tulane's Kody Hoese has enjoyed a huge breakout year as a junior after slashing just .291/.368/.435 with six home runs as a sophomore, bumping that slash line up to .393/.489/.804 with 23 home runs and a 28/37 strikeout to walk ratio through 54 games. He has absolutely obliterated the relatively weak pitching that Tulane has faced this year, also cutting his strikeout rate and raising his walk rate significantly. The tremendous numbers will get him drafted towards the back of the first round or in the comp round, but the lack of a track record makes it hard to see him coming off the board too too early. Like Jung and Baty, he has a strong arm but needs to improve the rest of his defensive game to stick at third. On the high school side, San Diego-area native Keoni Cavaco not only has the coolest name in the draft, but has also pushed himself way up boards with a strong spring. After not being invited to most showcase events over the summer, Cavaco has made some very loud statements this spring by showing very good raw power and getting to it consistently against decent competition in Chula Vista and around San Diego. However, his big swing leads to a fair amount of swing and miss, and with little track record to go on as far as facing good pitching goes, Cavaco is a risky option. However, a scouting director who doesn't ding him for what is out of his control may take him somewhere in the back half of the first round, and he's a better defender than the three players previously discussed on this list. He could also fall into the comp rounds. Rece Hinds may actually be more polarizing than Brett Baty. One of three potential day one picks at the IMG Academy near Tampa (Bradenton), Hinds has the best raw power in the high school class, crushing balls harder and farther than even Baty. However, he comes with serious questions about his hit tool, as he has gotten to his power consistently even against stronger high school competition but he also showed as much swing and miss as any day one prospect out there. He has no trouble catching up to and crushing elite velocity, but spin him and average breaking ball and it's a different story. A team taking the 6'4" slugger, either in the back of the first round, the comp round, or the early second round, is getting a player with tremendous, Aaron Judge-type upside, but also a high risk of becoming Dylan Cozens. Like everyone else on this list, his arm is ahead of his glove work at this point, and he has a fairly good chance of being forced over to first base.
Tier III: Drew Mendoza, Nick Quintana, Davis Wendzel, Aaron Schunk, Cade Doughty
Aside from Doughty, this tier is entirely made up of college bats, and each is a little different. Drew Mendoza could have been a late first round pick out of his Orlando-area high school in 2016, but he instead went on to Florida State and has become yet another polarizing prospect. 54 games into his junior season, he has hit 14 home runs with a very healthy .308/.482/.604 slash line and a 61/61 strikeout to walk ratio. Two things jump out off that stat line; he can hit and has had little trouble handling Florida State's tough competition, and he strikes out a lot. In fact, he's striking out in (and walking in) about a quarter of his plate appearances, and that simply may not be sustainable in pro ball. Additionally, Mendoza's bat is a little sluggish through the zone, as he really just muscles balls out of the park. The tools are there for him to be a 30+ home run hitter with a high walk rate, but the high strikeout totals and lack of bat speed may impact that at the next level. Defensively, he was thought of as a likely third baseman, but the scales have started to tip and he might have to move to first base in pro ball. Look for him to come off the board in the second, third, or fourth round. Meanwhile, as Mendoza's stock has dropped, Nick Quintana's has risen, although not as significantly. Quintana has gotten better in each of his three seasons at Arizona, and this year he's slashing .340/.466/.616 with 13 home runs and a 51/44 strikeout to walk ratio through 52 games. He has also shown a lot of power, but like Mendoza, he strikes out a lot as well, with his strikeout rates a tick below Mendoza's but still notable. His swing can get long at times, but he's strong enough that he could shorten it up in pro ball and still get to his power, making him about as safe of a bet to hit as Mendoza. He does play better defense, to the point where he's actually a net-positive at third base and has no risk of moving to first. He also could be drafted in the second or third round. Davis Wendzel hasn't played in a few weeks as he battles a minor oblique injury, but he has been fantastic for Baylor by slashing .385/.500/.647 with eight home runs and a 32/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 games. Wendzel is a bit older and will be 22 on draft day, but it's hard to deny the production he has had this year in a good year for the Big 12. His swing comes with some length but with plenty of bat speed, and some added loft could make him a real power threat. He also keeps his strikeouts down and is a very good defender at third base, so he comes with less risk than Mendoza or Quintana (albeit with less upside). He looks to hit 15-25 home runs per season with solid on-base percentages and should go in the second or third round. Georgia's Aaron Schunk has an interesting profile, not hitting much as a sophomore (3 HR, .299/.340/.411) but busting out as a junior (11 HR, .340/.367/.580, 25/10 K/BB). Schunk has typically been more hit over power, but he crushed two home runs against Alabama on Friday and has four in his last five games. He has a very good feel for the barrel and really keeps his strikeouts down, even more so than Wendzel does, though his aggressive approach also limits his walks and he has done so in fewer than five percent of his plate appearances this year. If Schunk can successfully add some loft, he could have a similar offensive (and defensive) profile to Wendzel, albeit with a lower on-base percentage. He looks more like a third or fourth rounder at this point but if he keeps his power surge up, he could sneak into the back of day one. Lastly, Baton Rouge-area high schooler Cade Doughty is the only prep bat in this section, and he comes with a similar profile to both Wendzel and Schunk. Doughty has a whippy swing and feel for the barrel, though he is skinny and hasn't hit for much power to this point. If he adds some bulk, he could grow into that power and become a true impact hitter, and his strong infield defense adds to his value. However, he runs the risk of becoming a utility player if he never develops that power. He's a likely third rounder and teams will have to compete with his commitment to his hometown LSU Tigers.
Others: Austin Shenton, Ryan Kreidler, Seth Gray
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