A few years ago, the Cubs' system included such big names as Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Gleyber Torres, Ian Happ, and...you get the point. That group of hitters has graduated and helped end the 108 year title drought (except for Torres), and the effect is essentially an empty farm system. Right now, few prospects project to be much more than marginal contributors in this pitching-heavy system, though there is some nice starting pitching depth and a couple of prospects look like they could break out next season. The Cubs' player development is pretty good, so some players down on the farm may outplay their prospect status as it stands today.
Affiliates: AAA Iowa Cubs, AA Tennessee Smokies, High A Myrtle Beach Pelicans, Class A South Bend Cubs, Short Season Eugene Emeralds, complex level AZL and DSL Cubs
The Headliner: C Miguel Amaya
Miguel Amaya's offensive breakout was the best thing to happen to the Cubs' system in 2018. A highly regarded catching prospect when signed out of Panama, Amaya has always been praised for his defense behind the plate but it took a little while for his bat to get going. That changed in 2018, when he slashed .256/.349/.403 with 12 home runs and a nice 91/50 strikeout to walk ratio in 116 games at Class A South Bend. Those numbers look rather pedestrian on the surface, but context makes them much better. Amaya played the entire season at age 19 and does not turn 20 until just before the 2019 season, making him one of the younger players in the Midwest League, his plate discipline improved greatly despite the jump from short season to full season ball, and he's a catcher; it's tough to find good defensive catchers who can also swing it. I like the way he gets extension on the ball after contact, and while he has some work to do on his overall hit tool, I think he can grow into a fine MLB catcher. There are plenty of farm systems with no projected starting-quality catchers anywhere, so having Amaya is definitely big. He's a long way off, but he's as good a bet as any teenage catcher to be a starter in the major leagues.
The Army of Back-End Workhorses: Alex Lange, Keegan Thompson, Cory Abbott, Thomas Hatch, Erich Uelmen, and Michael Rucker
These six pitchers all have a lot in common, which is why I grouped them together. Aside from being workhorses, all six pitched at Division I college programs and were drafted in either 2016 or 2017, and all but Rucker were taken in the top four rounds. Former LSU star Alex Lange is my personal favorite of the bunch, and he also has the best chance to be more than an innings eater. Lange was a first rounder in 2017 (30th overall) and spent all of 2018 at High A Myrtle Beach, going 6-8 with a 3.74 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 101/38 strikeout to walk ratio over 120.1 innings. While he doesn't burn up the radar guns, he throws hard enough in the low 90's and his curveball is a deadly weapon. The 20.4% strikeout rate was a little low, but the 7.7% walk rate was also low, especially when compared to his 9.2% rate from his final year at LSU. This I think has come with more consistency in his delivery, and I like his chances for improving further and becoming a mid-rotation starter. Behind Amaya, he might be the best prospect in the system. Former Auburn star Keegan Thompson was a third round pick (105th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange, but because he is an academic year older than Lange (seven months in reality), he made it up to AA in 2018. Between Myrtle Beach and AA Tennessee, he was 9-6 with a 3.61 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 115/34 strikeout to walk ratio over 129.2 innings, pitching a little better in High A than AA as expected. Like Lange, he has a great curve, but he also throws a good changeup and commands his pitches better than Lange, which makes up for the lower velocity. He just needs to improve his consistency, though I think his ceiling is lower than Lange's with the same floor. Former Loyola Marymount star Cory Abbott was a second round pick (67th overall) in the same 2017 draft as Lange and Thompson, though he split 2018 between Class A South Bend and Myrtle Beach. Partially due to starting lower in the minors, his numbers were the best of the three (8-6, 2.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131/39 K/BB in 115 IP). He gets by more on mixing his pitches because none stand out as plus, giving A-ball hitters fits in the process, though his margin for error will shrink as he moves up. Consider Abbott a back-end option. Former Oklahoma State star Thomas Hatch was a third round pick (104th overall) in 2016. He had a pretty good year at Tennessee this year (8-6, 3.82 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 117/61 K/BB in 143.2 IP), showing the stuff and stamina to succeed but struggling a bit with his command. He looks like a #5 starter right now, but the walks are just a little high for his profile. Former Cal Poly star Erich Uelmen is the youngest of the six, having been drafted in the fourth round (135th overall) in 2017. He split 2018 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (8-8, 3.83 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 82/30 K/BB in 89.1 total IP), generating tons of ground balls but also showing problems with durability. He has the highest reliever risk of the group. Lastly, former BYU star Michael Rucker, the oldest of the six, was an eleventh round pick in 2016 who rose to prominence with a big 2017 in A ball and some continued success at Tennessee in 2018 (9-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 118/38 K/BB in 132.2 IP). He gets by more on command than stuff, and though he's on the older side (pitched almost the whole season at age 24), he hopes to be a #5 starter in the near future.
Waiting to Put It Together: RHP Adbert Alzolay, SS Aramis Ademan, RHP Duane Underwood, LHP Brendon Little, and RHP Bailey Clark
These five players have had varying levels of success but also have seen inconsistency, and we're waiting to see which ones can put it together and become stars or at least valuable players. We'll start with 23 year old pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay, one of the top prospects in the system. Signed from Venezuela before the 2013 season, he was not a notable prospect at all until his breakout in 2015 with Short Season Eugene, then he really broke out with a huge 2017 between Myrtle Beach and Tennessee (7-4, 2.99 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 108/34 K/BB in 114.1 total IP). I actually got to see his final start of the season that year in person, but he couldn't make it out of the second inning. He was off to a decent start at AAA Iowa in 2018 considering the difficult pitchers' environment in the PCL (2-4, 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 27/13 K/BB in 39.2 IP), but a lat injury ended his season just eight starts in. He's somewhat difficult to project on the mound, showing a hard low to mid 90's fastball, though its movement is just average, and a very good curveball. Despite his inconsistency on the mound his control is pretty good, and it seems that he runs into his biggest problems not when he starts walking everybody, but when his stuff flattens out and he becomes hittable. In that sense, even though he already has eight AAA starts under his belt, he still has a high ceiling and a low floor, with possible outcomes being anything from a #2 starter to a reliever. Meanwhile, another prospect with initials AA has been up and down for different reasons. 20 year old shortstop Aramis Ademan has always been a big prospect, playing above his age group every year. He performed well enough against advanced competition as an 18 year old in 2017 (.267/.324/.427), but 2018 has been a different story as a 19 year old in the High A Carolina League with Myrtle Beach: 3 HR, .207/.291/.273, 95/38 K/BB in 114 games. The teenager seemed to be having the bat knocked out of his hands by pitchers years older than himself, popping out and grounding out more than he has in the past. Offensively, the one saving grace for his season was a moderately high walk rate of 8.4%, which is nothing crazy but is enough to show he at least could recognize pitches and maintain an approach. Of course, given his age and good defense at a premium position, the poor 2018 does not erase his stock completely and another year in High A could pay dividends. There's a lot of pre-pitch movement in his swing and he seems to sometimes just be flinging the bat at the ball, so increasing strength and getting more consistent with his mechanics, when combined with his moderately good eye and approach, could facilitate a breakout. He's a long way off but he could be a starting shortstop down the road, or a solid bench option. Duane Underwood was taken in the second round (67th overall) of the 2012 draft, and the man has somehow figured out how to stay on prospect lists for seven years. Talk about prospect fatigue. The 24 year old has managed this by looking great on the right days and terrible on the wrong days, and in 2018 it came together for a 4-10 record, a 4.53 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP, and a 105/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 119.1 innings at AAA Iowa. He has been so inconsistent and the Cubs have been trying to develop him as a starter for so long that he ended up making five relief appearances at the end of the year, allowing six runs in seven innings (but striking out eight to just two walks). Overall, more than six years after he was drafted, it's hard to say what his impact will be; I'm guessing long reliever. Brendon Little was taken in the first round (27th overall) out of a Florida JuCo in 2017, which I saw as an overdraft. As it turns out, he struggled at Class A South Bend this year, going 5-11 with a 5.15 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a 90/43 strikeout to walk ratio over 101.1 innings. The level wasn't supposed to be particularly difficult for him, a hard throwing JuCo lefty, but hitters were able to handle the high velocity and great curveball due to his lack of a changeup, good command, and movement on his fastball. Development of the changeup and of his command could still make him a mid-rotation starter, but I think his future lies in the bullpen. Lastly, Bailey Clark was a fifth round pick out of Duke in 2016, and statistically he has been all over the place. A 4.59 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 2017 gave way to a 1.89 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP, as well as a 63/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 57 innings, in 2018. It's hard to know what to make of Clark going forward, but I think he has a pretty decent shot at being a useful reliever.
The Distant Future: LHP Brailyn Marquez, SS Nico Hoerner, OF Brennen Davis, OF Cole Roederer, OF Jimmy Herron, and OF Nelson Velazquez
These six players are so far off from the majors that anything can happen between now and then, though likely one or two could develop into very useful players. 19 year old lefty Brailyn Marquez had a breakout year in 2018, posting a 3.13 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a 59/16 strikeout to walk ratio across 12 starts, mostly in Short Season ball at Eugene but also in Class A South Bend. His stuff all ticked up this year, and despite being a teenage lefty just learning to control his new velocity, he was surprisingly consistent in that he only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his twelve starts. A projectable 6'4", he figures to add even more velocity, and the command is pretty good for a pitcher in his position. He's a long way off and twelve starts in the low minors don't guarantee anything, but he's a breakout candidate for 2019 and could be the system's top prospect following the season should he do so. Perhaps the closest to the majors out of these six is this year's first round pick (24th overall), 21 year old infielder Nico Hoerner. Personally, I wasn't a big fan of the pick, though through a small sample his pro debut was a success: 2 HR, .327/.450/.571 slash line, 6 SB, 4/9 K/BB in 14 games. The Stanford product is considered a high floor, low ceiling player who could be the Cubs' starting second baseman down the road, showing no standout tools but doing a little bit of everything. If he doesn't start, I think he'll make a fine super-utility player along the lines of Houston's Marwin Gonzalez. With their 62nd and 77th overall picks, respectively, the Cubs took a couple of toolsy high school outfielders in Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer. While Davis is bigger and has more power potential, Roederer is faster and is a bit more advanced. I like Davis' upside better as a potential multi-category contributor, while Roederer might have a smoother road to the majors. Of course, with a couple of raw outfielders taken out of high school, the risk is very high and they have a lot to prove to be considered top prospects. The third round pick (98th overall), outfielder Jimmy Herron, comes from Duke and managed to slash .245/.333/.345 with three home runs in 33 games at South Bend this year, respectable for someone straight out of college ball. He's unlikely to ever start for the Cubs, but his strong plate discipline and hittability gives him a good shot at being a fourth outfielder in the fairly near future as a quick-to-the-big-leagues type. Lastly, another outfielder, 19 year old Nelson Velazquez, struggled at South Bend (.188/.242/.196) but was much better after a demotion to Eugene (.250/.322/.458, 11 HR, 12 SB, 81/23 K/BB). The Puerto Rico product is obviously very raw, but like Davis, he shows a tantalizing power-speed combination that should become more impactful once he improves his plate discipline. Like Davis and to an extent Roederer, he's high ceiling, low floor.
Showing posts with label Alex Lange. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alex Lange. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 7, 2018
Wednesday, July 5, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Chicago Cubs
First 5 rounds: Brendon Little (1-27), Alex Lange (1-30), Cory Abbott (2-67), Keegan Thompson (3-105), Erich Uelmen (4-135), Nelson Velazquez (5-165)
Also notable: Jeremiah Estrada (6-195), Ricky Tyler Thomas (7-225), Bryce Bonnin (26-795), Hunter Ruth (32-975)
The Cubs leaned on pitching here, taking pitchers with their first five picks, then adding two more with their seventh and eighth picks. Some of their biggest successes have been hitters (Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber), but they shifted focus this year and got lots of different kinds of pitchers, including three intriguing high-upside college arms.
1-27: LHP Brendon Little (my rank: 44)
Little came into the season the top JuCo arm available, only to see fellow Florida arm Nate Pearson (1-29, Blue Jays) pass him on the JuCo lists. However, Little ended up getting drafted two picks before Pearson anyways, and I'm personally not a big fan of the pick. Little is a well-built 6'2" lefty, one who can sit in the mid 90's out of the bullpen with a big breaking curveball and a promising changeup, but he's more low 90's as a starter. His fastball is somewhat straight since he comes straight over the top, and he has struggled with command, so I think he's best off in relief, but the Cubs are an organization that knows what they are doing and could make it work with Little as a starter. Personally, I see him as a lefty set-up man down the line. Little signed for $2.2 million, which is $173,300 below slot.
1-30: RHP Alex Lange (my rank: 16)
Lange's stock slowly faded all season long, but I liked him from the beginning and I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter for the Cubs. The LSU ace was amazing as a freshman (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), not so great as a sophomore (8-4, 3.79, 1.26, 125/49), and settled somewhere in between this year as a junior (10-5, 2.97, 1.24, 150/48). Lange flashed the dominance he had as a freshman plenty of times this year, but he also had quite a few starts where he looked like his sophomore self and was closer to average. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's as opposed to the mid 90's he threw as a freshman, but his tight curveball rivals that of Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright for the best in the class. He also throws a hard changeup with some sink, giving him a good chance to be a mid-rotation starter. If the Cubs can bring back that freshman velocity he had and get him more consistent with his command (he kicks out with his delivery and often fails to come back on line), there's a chance he could be a #2 starter. Lange has not signed yet.
2-67: RHP Cory Abbott (unranked)
Abbott was the first player drafted that I had not heard of, though he came in with the #187 ranking on MLB.com and the #149 spot at Baseball America. He was much more good than great during his first two seasons at Loyola Marymount, but he made a few adjustments and had a massive breakout in 2017, going 11-2 with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 130 batters in 98.1 innings. On March 25th, he threw a perfect game against Brigham Young. His long arm action creates a deceptive delivery, and he throws a low 90's fastball and a solid slider. He might be better off in relief, where his two pitches can play up. Abbott signed for $901,900, which is full slot value for the 67th pick.
3-105: RHP Keegan Thompson (my rank: 129)
Thompson, who missed the 2016 season with Tommy John surgery, is an "is what he is" type of pitcher now as a 22 year old. He has a high floor, having gone 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP while walking just 17 batters in 93.1 innings for Auburn this year, and because he's still shaking off the Tommy John rust, he has sat anywhere from 87 to 93 with his fastball. He has a very good curveball and a solid changeup, and his good command will help him play up as a back-end starter at the major league level, assuming he can stay healthy. Thompson signed for $511,900, which is full slot value for the 105th pick.
6-195: RHP Jeremiah Estrada (my rank: 102)
Estrada will require an overslot bonus if he signs at all here, and I doubt he signs for anything less than $250,000 to $300,000 over slot. Estrada began the season as a top 50 prospect by showing a low 90's fastball from an easy delivery, as well as a plus changeup and a decent curveball over the summer. However, the California high schooler was not the same pitcher this spring, as his fastball straightened out and dropped in velocity, his changeup played closer to average, and his curveball became more hittable when it began popping out of his hand early. He hasn't signed yet and is committed to UCLA, where he could rebuild his draft stock.
26-795: RHP Bryce Bonnin (my rank: 82)
Bonnin, a high school righty from Texas, almost certainly doesn't sign here and ends up attending Arkansas. Coming from Mont Belvieu, Texas, an oil refinery town just outside of the Houston suburbs, Bonnin's long arm action produces deceptive, sinking fastballs in the low 90's as well as a slider that has flashed plus. His delivery and command will need to be cleaned up, but once that happens, he has a high ceiling. Not that it will help his pitching, but Bonnin is a very good hitter and will play both ways at Arkansas.
Others: 4th rounder Erich Uelmen was Cal Poly's ace this year, going 4-8 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 100 and walking 23 in 98.1 innings. He has a plus sinking fastball in the low 90's that he commands well, but his slider is average and he may not have a full enough arsenal to stick in the rotation. 5th rounder Nelson Velazquez, a high schooler from Puerto Rico, shows a high ceiling at the plate but also a low floor, and he'll be a project to develop, but the pure athleticism and tools are there. 7th rounder Ricky Tyler Thomas had an underwhelming season for Fresno State this year, going 8-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, but he did strike out 100 in 90.2 innings and has a raw package teams like. His fastball sat in the upper 80's this year, with his plus changeup and average breaking ball taking a step back, but if he's converted to relief, he could regain his big stuff and work through the minors quickly, assuming he gets his command together. 32nd rounder Hunter Ruth ranked 120th on my list, but the Florida high schooler probably won't sign here and will instead stay in his hometown to join the Florida Gators. He went down with Tommy John surgery in April, but when he's healthy, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup, so he could come out of Florida as a top prospect.
Also notable: Jeremiah Estrada (6-195), Ricky Tyler Thomas (7-225), Bryce Bonnin (26-795), Hunter Ruth (32-975)
The Cubs leaned on pitching here, taking pitchers with their first five picks, then adding two more with their seventh and eighth picks. Some of their biggest successes have been hitters (Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Kyle Schwarber), but they shifted focus this year and got lots of different kinds of pitchers, including three intriguing high-upside college arms.
1-27: LHP Brendon Little (my rank: 44)
Little came into the season the top JuCo arm available, only to see fellow Florida arm Nate Pearson (1-29, Blue Jays) pass him on the JuCo lists. However, Little ended up getting drafted two picks before Pearson anyways, and I'm personally not a big fan of the pick. Little is a well-built 6'2" lefty, one who can sit in the mid 90's out of the bullpen with a big breaking curveball and a promising changeup, but he's more low 90's as a starter. His fastball is somewhat straight since he comes straight over the top, and he has struggled with command, so I think he's best off in relief, but the Cubs are an organization that knows what they are doing and could make it work with Little as a starter. Personally, I see him as a lefty set-up man down the line. Little signed for $2.2 million, which is $173,300 below slot.
1-30: RHP Alex Lange (my rank: 16)
Lange's stock slowly faded all season long, but I liked him from the beginning and I think he could turn into a mid-rotation starter for the Cubs. The LSU ace was amazing as a freshman (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), not so great as a sophomore (8-4, 3.79, 1.26, 125/49), and settled somewhere in between this year as a junior (10-5, 2.97, 1.24, 150/48). Lange flashed the dominance he had as a freshman plenty of times this year, but he also had quite a few starts where he looked like his sophomore self and was closer to average. The 6'4" righty sits in the low 90's as opposed to the mid 90's he threw as a freshman, but his tight curveball rivals that of Brendan McKay and Kyle Wright for the best in the class. He also throws a hard changeup with some sink, giving him a good chance to be a mid-rotation starter. If the Cubs can bring back that freshman velocity he had and get him more consistent with his command (he kicks out with his delivery and often fails to come back on line), there's a chance he could be a #2 starter. Lange has not signed yet.
2-67: RHP Cory Abbott (unranked)
Abbott was the first player drafted that I had not heard of, though he came in with the #187 ranking on MLB.com and the #149 spot at Baseball America. He was much more good than great during his first two seasons at Loyola Marymount, but he made a few adjustments and had a massive breakout in 2017, going 11-2 with a 1.74 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 130 batters in 98.1 innings. On March 25th, he threw a perfect game against Brigham Young. His long arm action creates a deceptive delivery, and he throws a low 90's fastball and a solid slider. He might be better off in relief, where his two pitches can play up. Abbott signed for $901,900, which is full slot value for the 67th pick.
3-105: RHP Keegan Thompson (my rank: 129)
Thompson, who missed the 2016 season with Tommy John surgery, is an "is what he is" type of pitcher now as a 22 year old. He has a high floor, having gone 7-4 with a 2.41 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP while walking just 17 batters in 93.1 innings for Auburn this year, and because he's still shaking off the Tommy John rust, he has sat anywhere from 87 to 93 with his fastball. He has a very good curveball and a solid changeup, and his good command will help him play up as a back-end starter at the major league level, assuming he can stay healthy. Thompson signed for $511,900, which is full slot value for the 105th pick.
6-195: RHP Jeremiah Estrada (my rank: 102)
Estrada will require an overslot bonus if he signs at all here, and I doubt he signs for anything less than $250,000 to $300,000 over slot. Estrada began the season as a top 50 prospect by showing a low 90's fastball from an easy delivery, as well as a plus changeup and a decent curveball over the summer. However, the California high schooler was not the same pitcher this spring, as his fastball straightened out and dropped in velocity, his changeup played closer to average, and his curveball became more hittable when it began popping out of his hand early. He hasn't signed yet and is committed to UCLA, where he could rebuild his draft stock.
26-795: RHP Bryce Bonnin (my rank: 82)
Bonnin, a high school righty from Texas, almost certainly doesn't sign here and ends up attending Arkansas. Coming from Mont Belvieu, Texas, an oil refinery town just outside of the Houston suburbs, Bonnin's long arm action produces deceptive, sinking fastballs in the low 90's as well as a slider that has flashed plus. His delivery and command will need to be cleaned up, but once that happens, he has a high ceiling. Not that it will help his pitching, but Bonnin is a very good hitter and will play both ways at Arkansas.
Others: 4th rounder Erich Uelmen was Cal Poly's ace this year, going 4-8 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 15 starts, striking out 100 and walking 23 in 98.1 innings. He has a plus sinking fastball in the low 90's that he commands well, but his slider is average and he may not have a full enough arsenal to stick in the rotation. 5th rounder Nelson Velazquez, a high schooler from Puerto Rico, shows a high ceiling at the plate but also a low floor, and he'll be a project to develop, but the pure athleticism and tools are there. 7th rounder Ricky Tyler Thomas had an underwhelming season for Fresno State this year, going 8-4 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, but he did strike out 100 in 90.2 innings and has a raw package teams like. His fastball sat in the upper 80's this year, with his plus changeup and average breaking ball taking a step back, but if he's converted to relief, he could regain his big stuff and work through the minors quickly, assuming he gets his command together. 32nd rounder Hunter Ruth ranked 120th on my list, but the Florida high schooler probably won't sign here and will instead stay in his hometown to join the Florida Gators. He went down with Tommy John surgery in April, but when he's healthy, he has a low to mid 90's fastball, a decent slider, and a solid changeup, so he could come out of Florida as a top prospect.
Sunday, June 11, 2017
2017 Draft Demographic Preview: SEC Arms
1st Tier: Kyle Wright, Alex Faedo
2nd Tier: Alex Lange, Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Wil Crowe, Corbin Martin
3rd Tier: Blaine Knight, Bryce Montes de Oca, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Johnson
Others: Keegan Thompson, Zach Pop
The SEC, or the Southeastern Conference, is baseball's premier college conference, including South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. More than anything, the SEC is known for producing high quality arms, recently David Price (Vanderbilt), Max Scherzer (Missouri), Dallas Keuchel (Arkansas), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), and Drew Pomeranz (Ole Miss) among many, many others. Aside from the track record, one reason teams love SEC arms is that the pitchers get tested against the highest levels of collegiate competition, giving teams the best idea of how they'll perform going forward. Since all of these players play in the same conference and are therefore mostly context-neutral, I included their 2017 stats in each tier.
Admittedly, I'm just sort of making excuses to write about and compare different sets of players at this point, and this is of no offense to the ACC, led by powerhouses Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia, among others (somewhere in the distance, my own mediocre baseball school in the ACC, Virginia Tech, screams for a mention).
Tier I (Wright, Faedo)
Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt): 5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB
Alex Faedo (Florida): 7-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123/34 K/BB
Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo were roughly equal coming into the season, and my slight preference for Wright turned out to be correct (so far) as the Vanderbilt ace has pushed himself to the very top of the draft. In fact, he has an excellent chance of going first overall to the Twins. Wright throws in the low to mid 90's with a devastating curveball/slider combination and a solid changeup. He has arguably the best combination of floor (#4 starter or set-up man/closer) and ceiling (ace) in this draft, though teams would have liked to see the 6'4" righty dominate the SEC just a little bit more, and he got roughed up against #1 ranked Oregon State yesterday. Factoring in Wright's tough final start against Oregon State (his ERA was below 3.00 beforehand), Faedo actually put up better numbers, but he'll almost certainly be the second SEC arm drafted. After knee surgeries in the fall, his stuff took a while to bounce back, but he sits in the low 90's with arguably the best slider in the draft class. The 6'5" righty has a more durable but less projectable build than Wright, and like his Vanderbilt counterpart, the Gator ace has a long track record of success in the SEC. While he won't go first overall, he could hear his name in the top ten and almost certainly in the top 20.
Tier II (Lange, Houck, Schmidt, Crowe, Martin)
Alex Lange (LSU): 9-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 124/34 K/BB
Tanner Houck (Missouri): 4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB
Clarke Schmidt (South Carolina): 4-2, 1.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 70/18 K/BB
Wil Crowe (South Carolina): 6-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90/31 K/BB
Corbin Martin (Texas A&M): 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 87/36 K/BB
Alex Lange's draft stock is still riding the momentum of his insane freshman season (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and he is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft class. While many rankings have dropped him from the top 20 or even the top 30, he remains at #16 for me because I love his combination of SEC performance and solid arsenal. He throws in the low to mid 90's with one of the best curveballs in the class, and his changeup even has plus potential. Control has held him back when he fails to come back on-line with his deceptive but inefficient delivery, an it is what keeps him out of the top half of the first round conversation. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has experienced falling stock for most of the spring, coming in as a potential top ten pick and likely finishing as a late first rounder. He can pump his plus to plus-plus fastball into the upper 90's, but he's sat more in the low 90's this spring, which is troublesome because he lacks a true put-away offspeed pitch. Combine that with an atypical delivery, and many project him as a future reliever, though he does have surprisingly good command. If you take a look at Clarke Schmidt's stats, you can see that he was positioning himself as a possible top ten pick, but he blew out his elbow and is now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That said, the stuff is pretty great, as you'd expect from the numbers. He rolls a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a solid slider/curveball combination, giving him plenty of weapons against today's Fly Ball Revolution. Teams have shown more and more willingness to draft pitchers after going under the knife, but Schmidt already had durability questions before the injury and this only raises more question marks. His teammate, Wil Crowe, had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss his junior year, but he's back as a redshirt junior and has pitched well enough to be drafted in the first two rounds. Unlike the 6'1", 200 lb Schmidt, Crowe is a big boy at 6'2", 250 lbs. He should be more durable and is a safer bet to reach the majors, though his upside his much lower. Corbin Martin is a fairly polarizing prospect, as he has great stuff and pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last year, but he never was was able to perform in the SEC until this year. In relief, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, but it is more low to mid 90's as a starter. His curveball is a plus pitch and he has a solid slider too, and with a decent changeup, the only thing missing is command; after walking 5.89 and 7.18 per nine innings in his first two seasons, he dropped that number to 3.98 in 2017, but it is still very high and leads many to believe he'll end up back in the bullpen.
Tier III (Knight, Montes de Oca, Stephan, Johnson)
Blaine Knight (Arkansas): 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96/20 K/BB
Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri): 4-5, 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 61/42 K/BB
Trevor Stephan (Arkansas): 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 120/20 K/BB
Tyler Johnson (South Carolina): 1-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB
Blaine Knight is a draft eligible sophomore at Arkansas, turning 21 later this month. At 6'3" 165 lbs, he has one of the skinniest frames in this class, and could use to add some good weight. Where he's at now is pretty good, too, as he uses his well-located solid fastball/slider combo to get outs in bunches. All he has to do to guarantee starting is to continue developing his changeup and proving his durability, as he has most of the tools needed to be a mid-rotation force. Bryce Montes de Oca has a unique profile: standing at 6'7" and weighing 265 lbs, he's one of the biggest players in this class, and his heavily sinking fastball can hit 100 out of the bullpen. He has massive command problems as well as a medical history, and to top it all off, he has one of the coolest names in the draft. Those are the basics. Montes de Oca has been used as a starter for Missouri this season, though most, including myself, see him as a reliever at the next level, where he can blow hitters away with his velocity and hard curveball. He's among the riskiest picks in the college ranks, though, because he made just eight appearances over his first two seasons due to injuries, and he has walked 42 batters in 61 innings this season, showing almost no feel for locating pitches. Knight's Arkansas teammate, Trevor Stephan, has been an instant hit in Fayetteville, as the numbers show. Like Knight, he throws and locates a low to mid 90's fastball, but his secondary stuff lags behind his teammate's. His hard slider and decent changeup have been enough to get hitters out in the SEC, which is certainly saying something, but they'll both need to improve if he wants to cut it as a reliever at the higher levels. Tyler Johnson, a teammate of Schmidt's and Crowe's at South Carolina, is already a reliever. He runs his upper 90's fastball to both sides of the plate, and his decent slider has helped him dominate as the Gamecocks' closer. He did miss time with a sore arm this season, which caused him to be inconsistent even when he was on the mound and also hurt his command.
Others (stats only)
Keegan Thompson (Auburn): 7-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 75/17 K/BB
Zach Pop (Kentucky): 1-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20/13 K/BB
2nd Tier: Alex Lange, Tanner Houck, Clarke Schmidt, Wil Crowe, Corbin Martin
3rd Tier: Blaine Knight, Bryce Montes de Oca, Trevor Stephan, Tyler Johnson
Others: Keegan Thompson, Zach Pop
The SEC, or the Southeastern Conference, is baseball's premier college conference, including South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Louisiana State, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky. More than anything, the SEC is known for producing high quality arms, recently David Price (Vanderbilt), Max Scherzer (Missouri), Dallas Keuchel (Arkansas), Michael Wacha (Texas A&M), and Drew Pomeranz (Ole Miss) among many, many others. Aside from the track record, one reason teams love SEC arms is that the pitchers get tested against the highest levels of collegiate competition, giving teams the best idea of how they'll perform going forward. Since all of these players play in the same conference and are therefore mostly context-neutral, I included their 2017 stats in each tier.
Admittedly, I'm just sort of making excuses to write about and compare different sets of players at this point, and this is of no offense to the ACC, led by powerhouses Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia, among others (somewhere in the distance, my own mediocre baseball school in the ACC, Virginia Tech, screams for a mention).
Tier I (Wright, Faedo)
Kyle Wright (Vanderbilt): 5-6, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 121/31 K/BB
Alex Faedo (Florida): 7-2, 2.70 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123/34 K/BB
Kyle Wright and Alex Faedo were roughly equal coming into the season, and my slight preference for Wright turned out to be correct (so far) as the Vanderbilt ace has pushed himself to the very top of the draft. In fact, he has an excellent chance of going first overall to the Twins. Wright throws in the low to mid 90's with a devastating curveball/slider combination and a solid changeup. He has arguably the best combination of floor (#4 starter or set-up man/closer) and ceiling (ace) in this draft, though teams would have liked to see the 6'4" righty dominate the SEC just a little bit more, and he got roughed up against #1 ranked Oregon State yesterday. Factoring in Wright's tough final start against Oregon State (his ERA was below 3.00 beforehand), Faedo actually put up better numbers, but he'll almost certainly be the second SEC arm drafted. After knee surgeries in the fall, his stuff took a while to bounce back, but he sits in the low 90's with arguably the best slider in the draft class. The 6'5" righty has a more durable but less projectable build than Wright, and like his Vanderbilt counterpart, the Gator ace has a long track record of success in the SEC. While he won't go first overall, he could hear his name in the top ten and almost certainly in the top 20.
Tier II (Lange, Houck, Schmidt, Crowe, Martin)
Alex Lange (LSU): 9-5, 2.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 124/34 K/BB
Tanner Houck (Missouri): 4-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 95/24 K/BB
Clarke Schmidt (South Carolina): 4-2, 1.30 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 70/18 K/BB
Wil Crowe (South Carolina): 6-5, 3.41 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 90/31 K/BB
Corbin Martin (Texas A&M): 7-3, 2.99 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 87/36 K/BB
Alex Lange's draft stock is still riding the momentum of his insane freshman season (12-0, 1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP), and he is one of my favorite pitchers in this draft class. While many rankings have dropped him from the top 20 or even the top 30, he remains at #16 for me because I love his combination of SEC performance and solid arsenal. He throws in the low to mid 90's with one of the best curveballs in the class, and his changeup even has plus potential. Control has held him back when he fails to come back on-line with his deceptive but inefficient delivery, an it is what keeps him out of the top half of the first round conversation. Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has experienced falling stock for most of the spring, coming in as a potential top ten pick and likely finishing as a late first rounder. He can pump his plus to plus-plus fastball into the upper 90's, but he's sat more in the low 90's this spring, which is troublesome because he lacks a true put-away offspeed pitch. Combine that with an atypical delivery, and many project him as a future reliever, though he does have surprisingly good command. If you take a look at Clarke Schmidt's stats, you can see that he was positioning himself as a possible top ten pick, but he blew out his elbow and is now rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. That said, the stuff is pretty great, as you'd expect from the numbers. He rolls a sinking low to mid 90's fastball with a solid slider/curveball combination, giving him plenty of weapons against today's Fly Ball Revolution. Teams have shown more and more willingness to draft pitchers after going under the knife, but Schmidt already had durability questions before the injury and this only raises more question marks. His teammate, Wil Crowe, had Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss his junior year, but he's back as a redshirt junior and has pitched well enough to be drafted in the first two rounds. Unlike the 6'1", 200 lb Schmidt, Crowe is a big boy at 6'2", 250 lbs. He should be more durable and is a safer bet to reach the majors, though his upside his much lower. Corbin Martin is a fairly polarizing prospect, as he has great stuff and pitched very well in the Cape Cod League last year, but he never was was able to perform in the SEC until this year. In relief, his fastball sits in the mid to upper 90's, but it is more low to mid 90's as a starter. His curveball is a plus pitch and he has a solid slider too, and with a decent changeup, the only thing missing is command; after walking 5.89 and 7.18 per nine innings in his first two seasons, he dropped that number to 3.98 in 2017, but it is still very high and leads many to believe he'll end up back in the bullpen.
Tier III (Knight, Montes de Oca, Stephan, Johnson)
Blaine Knight (Arkansas): 8-4, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 96/20 K/BB
Bryce Montes de Oca (Missouri): 4-5, 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 61/42 K/BB
Trevor Stephan (Arkansas): 6-3, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 120/20 K/BB
Tyler Johnson (South Carolina): 1-2, 2.39 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 40/15 K/BB
Blaine Knight is a draft eligible sophomore at Arkansas, turning 21 later this month. At 6'3" 165 lbs, he has one of the skinniest frames in this class, and could use to add some good weight. Where he's at now is pretty good, too, as he uses his well-located solid fastball/slider combo to get outs in bunches. All he has to do to guarantee starting is to continue developing his changeup and proving his durability, as he has most of the tools needed to be a mid-rotation force. Bryce Montes de Oca has a unique profile: standing at 6'7" and weighing 265 lbs, he's one of the biggest players in this class, and his heavily sinking fastball can hit 100 out of the bullpen. He has massive command problems as well as a medical history, and to top it all off, he has one of the coolest names in the draft. Those are the basics. Montes de Oca has been used as a starter for Missouri this season, though most, including myself, see him as a reliever at the next level, where he can blow hitters away with his velocity and hard curveball. He's among the riskiest picks in the college ranks, though, because he made just eight appearances over his first two seasons due to injuries, and he has walked 42 batters in 61 innings this season, showing almost no feel for locating pitches. Knight's Arkansas teammate, Trevor Stephan, has been an instant hit in Fayetteville, as the numbers show. Like Knight, he throws and locates a low to mid 90's fastball, but his secondary stuff lags behind his teammate's. His hard slider and decent changeup have been enough to get hitters out in the SEC, which is certainly saying something, but they'll both need to improve if he wants to cut it as a reliever at the higher levels. Tyler Johnson, a teammate of Schmidt's and Crowe's at South Carolina, is already a reliever. He runs his upper 90's fastball to both sides of the plate, and his decent slider has helped him dominate as the Gamecocks' closer. He did miss time with a sore arm this season, which caused him to be inconsistent even when he was on the mound and also hurt his command.
Others (stats only)
Keegan Thompson (Auburn): 7-4, 2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 75/17 K/BB
Zach Pop (Kentucky): 1-1, 3.48 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20/13 K/BB
Saturday, May 20, 2017
2017 Draft Preview: Alex Lange
RHP Alex Lange (Louisiana State): 6'4", 200 lbs, born 10/2/1995.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 65. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
Among collegiate likely first rounders, Alex Lange is one of the bigger wild cards. He was one of the most dominant freshmen in the country in 2015 (1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), but was very inconsistent as a sophomore in 2016 (3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 125/49 K/BB). This year has been a mix of both; he's flashed dominance, but has had a few starts that set him back, so far compiling a 2.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 111/33 K/BB. When he's on, he flashes #2 starter potential, but when he's not, he reminds you of a #5 starter or even a long reliever. Because he has higher upside on the mound than other college arms like Brendan McKay, Griffin Canning, or David Peterson, he could go pretty much anywhere back half of the first round, and could easily be taken in the top 20 picks.
Strengths
Lange already has two big league pitches in a low to mid 90's fastball and a power curve that could be the best in this draft class. While his changeup is not major league ready, it is coming along nicely with good depth and will likely be a solid contrast for his fastball at the big league level. He has a deceptive delivery that allows his arsenal to play up, and his overall profile screams mid-rotation starter.
Weaknesses
Much of Lange's inconsistencies are directly derived from his spotty command. The command troubles, in turn, derive from his delivery. The delivery features an outward leg kick as well as extension of the glove hand towards third base before he attempts to bring everything back on line to the plate. When he can get everything back on line, it creates deception and can throw off opposing hitters. However, he often struggles to corral all of his flying limbs, and when they don't stay on line, his command suffers. The fastball/curve combo is deadly, but if he can't command it, it's worthless, so his success will be tied to his delivery going forward. Best case scenario, if he gets consistent with his delivery and further develops his changeup, he is a #2 starter. He has significant work to do to get there, but I am an optimist.
Overview
Fastball: 60. Curveball: 65. Changeup: 50. Control: 45.
Among collegiate likely first rounders, Alex Lange is one of the bigger wild cards. He was one of the most dominant freshmen in the country in 2015 (1.97 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 131/46 K/BB), but was very inconsistent as a sophomore in 2016 (3.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 125/49 K/BB). This year has been a mix of both; he's flashed dominance, but has had a few starts that set him back, so far compiling a 2.79 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 111/33 K/BB. When he's on, he flashes #2 starter potential, but when he's not, he reminds you of a #5 starter or even a long reliever. Because he has higher upside on the mound than other college arms like Brendan McKay, Griffin Canning, or David Peterson, he could go pretty much anywhere back half of the first round, and could easily be taken in the top 20 picks.
Strengths
Lange already has two big league pitches in a low to mid 90's fastball and a power curve that could be the best in this draft class. While his changeup is not major league ready, it is coming along nicely with good depth and will likely be a solid contrast for his fastball at the big league level. He has a deceptive delivery that allows his arsenal to play up, and his overall profile screams mid-rotation starter.
Weaknesses
Much of Lange's inconsistencies are directly derived from his spotty command. The command troubles, in turn, derive from his delivery. The delivery features an outward leg kick as well as extension of the glove hand towards third base before he attempts to bring everything back on line to the plate. When he can get everything back on line, it creates deception and can throw off opposing hitters. However, he often struggles to corral all of his flying limbs, and when they don't stay on line, his command suffers. The fastball/curve combo is deadly, but if he can't command it, it's worthless, so his success will be tied to his delivery going forward. Best case scenario, if he gets consistent with his delivery and further develops his changeup, he is a #2 starter. He has significant work to do to get there, but I am an optimist.
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