The Top Ten Prospects Returning to School in 2022

After the 2020 draft, we saw an unprecedented number of draft-eligible college stars return to school because of the shortened draft, headlined by players like Florida's Tommy Mace, ECU's Gavin Williams, and Ohio State's Seth Lonsway (as I wrote about after the fact). Williams ended up being the first 2020-eligible player drafted in 2021 at 23rd overall, followed by Florida State's Matheu Nelson at 35th overall and Fordham's Matt Mikulski at 50th overall. While we certainly don't have the same depth in the 2021 class of returners given the fifteen extra rounds, we may have even greater star power at the top after a couple of early picks went unsigned, of course led by the high profile Kumar Rocker debacle. Let's take a look at the top ten draft prospects returning to school after being eligible in 2021. Rankings are from my personal board and the list goes by that board, not their 2022 draft status.

1. RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt (?). 2021 rank: #10.
2021 stats: 14-4, 2.73 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 179/39 K/BB in 122 IP.
Most of us have heard all about this one by now. Kumar Rocker, the most famous name in college baseball, was drafted tenth overall by the Mets and initially agreed to a $6 million signing bonus, but a dispute over his medical led to New York completely rescinding their offer, deciding the compensation they'd get in 2022 would be more valuable than giving him even a single penny to sign. Of course, that leaves Rocker in a pickle because he was in effect barred from playing affiliated professional baseball as a result, through no fault of his own. It sounds like he won't be going back to Vanderbilt in 2022, where he would head up a rotation with some ultra talented up-and-comers like Patrick Reilly and Christian Little. That could change, and as a fan of college baseball myself, I'd love to see that happen. There are plenty of independent league teams throughout the US that would kill for the opportunity to get him on their club, and he could also take the Carter Stewart route through Japan or another foreign professional league. Or he could just work out on his own and throw bullpens for scouts, which to me sounds pretty boring but could be the best way for him to control his future. If his stuff stays where it is now and he proves fully healthy one way or another, then he'll likely hear his name called in back to back first rounds a la Mark Appel (though let's hope his career goes a bit smoother than Appel's). We've all heard plenty about the stuff by now, but let's talk about it one more time. The 6'5" righty pounds the strike zone with a low to mid 90's fastball that can get into the upper 90's, though at times it can play a bit true and scouts have nitpicked his ability to command it within the zone. He throws a slider that can be double-plus at its best, such as when he used it to finish all nineteen of his strikeouts in a super regional no-hitter against Duke as a freshman, though at times it got a bit slurvy in 2021. Rocker has also developed a cutter that looks like an above average pitch and has shown solid feel for a changeup, though the latter was hit hard at times in 2021. There's obviously huge upside here as a true ace, but of course he has a lot of questions to answer in 2022.

2. OF Jud Fabian, Florida. 2021 rank: #22.
2021 stats: 20 HR, 46 RBI, .249/.364/.560, 6 SB, 79/40 K/BB in 59 games.
Like Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian was drafted early (in this case 40th overall), but it was a slightly different situation. While Rocker and the Mets disagreed over his medicals and the Mets outright refused to offer him a dollar, Fabian and the Red Sox disagreed over money. Fabian made it clear he wanted something in the ballpark of $3 million and it was rumored that other teams farther down in the second round were willing to give it to him, but Boston took him earlier and offered him a fraction of that. Because Fabian is extremely young for his class and doesn't turn 21 until September, he held extra leverage and was able to hold his ground for the bonus he wanted, and ultimately the Red Sox couldn't meet it. He'll return to Gainesville for a fourth season and will fit right in age-wise with the 2022 first-time college draftees, perhaps a hair on the older side but still in the same range as guys like Jace Jung, Hayden Dunhurst, and Chase DeLauter. Fabian stands out for a combination of feel and tools at a young age, showing plus raw power that he taps consistently in games including not one but two home runs off of second overall pick Jack Leiter. He had one of the best eyes in the class at determining balls from strikes and also did well with fastballs versus offspeed pitches, so he rarely chased even against quality SEC stuff. The only problem here was the pure bat to ball skills, as the Ocala native struggled mightily with swing and miss even on pitches in the zone. This was due to a quick uppercut that naturally comes with more swing and miss, but he got so streaky at times (including sixteen strikeouts in a five game span against South Carolina and Ole Miss) that teams were too nervous to give him his money in the first round. Back in Gainesville next year, he'll work to prove that he can catch up to premium SEC fastballs, and if he can have a slump-free run next spring, we could be talking top half of the first round.

3. RHP Jonathan Cannon, Georgia. 2021 rank: #99.
2021 stats: 4-2, 3.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 57/13 K/BB in 63.1 IP.
Jonathan Cannon entered the spring with a chance to pitch his way into the first round, and in January I had him right on the fringes of that first round range. He missed the start of the season with mono, then tossed six shutout innings over his first two starts against Georgia Southern and Lipscomb as he got back on track. However, he ultimately ended up looking much more "good" than "great," with seven scoreless innings against Vanderbilt on April 10th being his only true gem. Cannon sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 96-97 early in starts, and there have been times where he's been able to touch the mid 90's late in starts as well. He adds a horizontal slider with some snap and a changeup with nice fade, and while they both have their moments, they look closer to average than plus. The big 6'6" righty does an excellent job of filling up the strike zone and only walked multiple batters in three of his thirteen starts, though to this point the control is ahead of the command and he can get hit when he leaves pitches over the plate. Right now, the profile seems *this close* to being that of an impact starter, and he'll look to get over that hump back in Athens in 2022. If he can get just a little more consistent with his offspeed stuff or perhaps tighten his in-zone command just a hair, we have a top two rounds prospect. The Atlanta-area native was eligible as a sophomore last year with a July birthday so he'll be just slightly older than most first-time eligible players in 2022.

4. LHP Andrew Walling, Eastern Oklahoma State JC -> Mississippi State. 2021 rank: #103.
2021 stats: 10-2, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 107/27 K/BB in 69.2 IP.
Eastern Oklahoma State College in Wilburton, Oklahoma compiled an extremely talented rotation in 2021, one that sent Christian McGowan to the Phillies in the seventh round and could have sent Andrew Walling to pro ball even earlier if he was signable. Instead, he'll head east to Mississippi State, where he'll help the Bulldogs fill the massive holes left by their top two starters, Will Bednar (Giants, first round) and Christian MacLeod (Twins, fifth round). Walling began his career at Oregon State but threw just 10.1 innings from 2019-2020 (while walking eleven), and consistent innings in Wilburton turned out to be just what he needed. His control improved to fringe-average, which helped his big stuff play up. The Longview, Washington native sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has touched 97-98, holding that velocity throughout his starts for the most part. He has great feel to spin the ball and shows a big curveball with depth and a sharp slider that he locates well, in addition to a decent changeup. The 6'3" lefty has a durable frame and a pretty repeatable delivery, and he has a very good chance to take over a weekend rotation spot in Starkville even as he competes with Jackson Fristoe, Landon Sims, and other holdovers. I would consider myself one of the high guys on Walling as far as the 2021 draft goes, and while he'll be on the older side in 2022 as he'll pitch the entire season at 22 years old, I definitely see mid-rotation upside.

5. OF Isaiah Thomas, Vanderbilt (?). My rank: #109.
2021 stats: 13 HR, 40 RBI, .305/.361/.583, 12 SB, 63/9 K/BB in 59 games.
Vanderbilt is returning a hell of a lineup next spring, with catcher CJ Rodriguez (A's, fifth round) and third baseman Jayson Gonzalez (White Sox, seventeenth round) being the only major losses. They didn't think they'd be getting back right fielder Isaiah Thomas, who might have the highest offensive ceiling in the entire program aside from potential 2022 first rounder Carter Young, but here we are. Few players anywhere in college baseball can scorch a line drive like Thomas, who packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and shows plus raw power from the right side. He's also shown a very accurate barrel that has consistently punished quality SEC pitching, which is especially notable because he was one of the most aggressive hitters in the draft class last year. Thomas swings at pretty much everything even remotely hittable, walking an average of just once every six and a half games while striking out at a 25.7% clip. Honestly to me, that makes his ability to do consistent damage against high-end pitching very impressive, and I really think the sky is the limit. In 2022, the South Florida native will really need to tone down his approach and show the ability to work counts rather than just hacking away until something happens, and if he can even get his K/BB ratio to something like a 2:1 or 3:1 rather than the 7:1 he showed in 2021, he could be one of the first seniors drafted.
*Update, the day after I published this article, Isaiah Thomas announced his intention to step away from the Vanderbilt baseball program for mental health reasons.

6. RHP Dylan Ross, Northwest Florida State JC -> Georgia. My rank: #158.
2021 stats: 6-2, 3.88 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 77/28 K/BB in 60.1 IP.
Dylan Ross began his career at Eastern Kentucky, but earned just four innings out of the Colonels bullpen and transferred to Northwest Florida State in the panhandle. He showed flashes of dominance, such as when he struck out fifteen against Tallahassee JC, and now he'll return to his home state of Georgia to join Jonathan Cannon in the Bulldogs rotation and replace Ryan Webb (Indians, fourth round). Ross is all about power. His fastball sits consistently in the mid 90's and has touched as high as 99, so triple digits are not out of the question in 2022. He adds a short, tight slider in the mid to upper 80's that can miss bats when it's located, while his equally hard splitter really gets hitters off balance. The 6'5" righty has long levers and throws with some effort, so he often has a hard time keeping everything in sync and can get scattered. He was able to blow baseballs by Florida JuCo hitters and that masked some of his control questions, but the transition to more polished SEC hitters in 2022 will be closely watched. The Statesboro native also faces relief questions because everything he throws is hard, and he currently lacks the ability to change speeds and mess with hitters' timing like you'd expect from a starting pitcher. If the Georgia staff can help him develop something softer, perhaps a changeup or a curveball, that could go a long way, but of course the command does need to be addressed as well. He'll be age appropriate in 2022, pitching the whole season at 21 years old.

7. RHP Troy Melton, San Diego State. My rank: #163.
2021 stats: 4-5, 6.14 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 83/30 K/BB in 73.1 IP.
Troy Melton continues the theme of younger players who weren't yet 21 on draft day. He's fairly new to pitching and when you combine that with his extreme youth, scouts were willing to give him more slack than most other prospects. However, he still wasn't quite effective enough this spring to give scouts confidence in projecting him as a starter, allowing at least four runs in six of his last seven starts. Melton is a natural on the mound with a low to mid 90's fastball that he can run up to 97, while his lower release point and nice extension make the pitch play up. He adds a sweepy slider and a more top to bottom, get-me-over curveball, as well as a decent changeup. While he has a tendency to leave pitches over the plate, he shows average command and has a very repeatable delivery. The 6'4" righty moves extremely well on the mound and shows the kind of profile that will be really malleable once he gets into pro ball. Now that he'll be age-appropriate rather than a full year younger than his drat-eligible peers (he doesn't turn 21 until December), scouts will want to see a little more development in his game, but overall it's still a really fun ball of clay to work with. The Orange County native will go back to San Diego State in 2022 to prove that he can make it as a starting pitcher, hopefully taking that next step that scouts have been hoping for.

8. RHP Mack Anglin, Clemson. My rank: #183.
2021 stats: 2-6, 3.99 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 75/33 K/BB in 56.1 IP.
Mack Anglin was actually drafted by the Nationals in the thirteenth round as backup in case Brady House or Daylen Lile didn't sign, but they both did and Anglin wanted more money than Washington could offer him. He was eligible as a sophomore due to a July birthday, so after being relatively young for last year's class, he'll just be relatively old for this one. Anglin stands out for his ability to just rip through a baseball on the mound, getting exceptionally high spin rates on his stuff that really make the ball dance. His fastball sits in the mid 90's while his curveball and slider are unique, plus pitches. However, it's clearly a relief profile at this point because he has a high effort delivery and can struggle to throw consistent strikes, and for that reason, teams didn't want to meet his asking price. The central Ohio native has a chance to go back to Clemson and smooth things out a bit, and if he can, the pure stuff fits in the top one hundred picks. He was sharp in the Cape Cod League and struck out sixteen in 12.2 innings, but the delivery still looked a bit rushed and he still has a reliever profile for now. We'll see where that stands after another full season in the ACC.

9. RHP Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech. My rank: #184.
2021 stats: 4-1, 3.06 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 36/9 K/BB in 35.1 IP.
I'd like to congratulate Brandon Birdsell for making this list two years in a row, as he ranked fifth a year ago coming out of San Jacinto JC. At this point last year, he was just breaking out as a prospect and had a ton of helium behind his name, but the fact that COVID shut down his breakout season meant that teams weren't quite comfortable enough with his track record to sign him away from a Texas Tech commitment. Birdsell continued that breakout in 2021 and allowed no more than one earned run in any of his final five starts, but unfortunately went down with a shoulder injury in April and never got back on the mound. Shoulders are really scary and teams were justifiably nervous to pay him like an impact pitching prospect, so he'll head back to Texas Tech in 2022 where he will look to prove his health. He has a good opportunity there with Mason Montgomery (Rays, sixth round), Ryan Sublette (Dodgers, seventh round), Hunter Dobbins (Red Sox, eighth round), and Patrick Monteverde (Marlins, eighth round) all gone to pro ball, as well as Micah Dallas having transferred to Texas A&M and Connor Queen graduating, so the Red Raiders are wide open for innings next spring. When healthy, the Southeast Texas product has two big league pitches in a mid 90's fastball that has gotten up to 99 as well as a power upper 80's slider. He also adds a newer curveball and a changeup that look solid at times but need more consistency. Birdsell pounds the strike zone and shows average command when healthy, so he has a chance to really improve his stock with a healthy 2022. That and further refinement of his curve or changeup will help teams project him as a starter, whereas if any of that lags, he might have more of a reliever outlook. The 6'2" righty was drafted by the Twins in the eleventh round this year but didn't sign.

10. LHP Austin Krob, Texas Christian. My rank: #186.
2021 stats: 8-1, 3.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 96/37 K/BB in 85 innings.
Austin Krob looked to be an interesting late day two option, but instead he went undrafted and is heading back to TCU for a third season, which was preceded by a year at Kirkwood JC in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. Since he'll turn 22 in September, he's the oldest player on this list and will therefore be nearly 23 by the time he gets into pro ball. He was pretty dependable this spring and with Russell Smith (Brewers, second round) and Johnny Ray (White Sox, twelfth round) gone to pro ball, he's the only returning member of the weekend rotation. The 6'3" lefty is up to the task, showing solid command of a quality four pitch mix. His fastball sits in the low 90's and gets up to 94-95, while his sweepy slider and fading changeup are regularly above average. He can morph that slider into more of a downer curveball, though it's better when it's a true slider. Krob uses a low three quarters delivery that puts some lateral angle on the baseball, and while he doesn't figure to miss a ton of bats in pro ball, he profiles well as a back-end starter that can eat innings and generate weak contact. The Iowa native seems like he is what he is as a prospect, so staying healthy and continuing to miss bats in the Big 12 will be on his to-do list in 2022.

Others:
#191 LHP Julian Bosnic, South Carolina
#192 1B Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt
#194 LHP Pete Hansen, Texas
#196 1B Ivan Melendez, Texas
#201 RHP Will Frisch, Oregon State
#203 RHP Mason Pelio, Boston College
#216 OF Levi Usher, Louisville

2021 MLB Draft Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

Full list of draftees

Picking first overall automatically puts you in a great position, and like the Tigers last year, I think the Pirates nailed it. They went way below slot to grab Henry Davis at the very top, but he's absolutely a top-tier talent and I don't think they cheated themselves in doing so. However, that strategy did allow them to give out massive over slot deals to three of the most talented high school players in the country with their next three picks, part of which they paid for by spending a combined $20,000 in the fifth and sixth rounds. As if it wasn't enough to bring in Anthony Solometo, Lonnie White Jr., and Bubba Chandler behind Davis, they went out and surprised everybody by signing Braylon Bishop to a reasonable over slot deal in the 14th round, which is already looking like the steal of the draft.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-1: C Henry Davis, Louisville. My rank: #3.
I had Jack Leiter and Marcelo Mayer ranked ahead of Henry Davis on my board, but really I saw the three of them as the first tier and the difference between Davis and #4 Brady House was greater than the difference between him and #2 Mayer. So given that the Pirates saved a boatload of money here that they spread around the draft, I think they made the right move with the first overall selection. Davis has been absolutely unstoppable since the start of the 2020 season, slashing .370/.482/.670 with 18 home runs and a 28/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games. While many other hitters slumped to start the season, he began the year on a 21 game hitting streak (23 if you go back to 2020) and immediately embarked on a 16 game streak after that one snapped, and he didn't even strike out until his eighth game of the season. There are very few holes in Davis' offensive game. He starts from a bit of a crouched setup and stays low but level throughout his swing, keeping his eyes behind his barrel and creating plenty of leverage from that strong base. The result is plus power that comes with extremely high exit velocities, so even when he's not putting it over the fence, he's stinging screaming line drives that consistently find grass unless they're hit right at somebody. His simple, controlled operation at the plate also combines with his strong eye to really limit strikeouts, running just a 10.5% rate this spring even against the ACC's particularly tough schedule. The New Yorker from northern Westchester County identifies balls from strikes and fastballs from offspeed, then has no trouble catching up to whatever he decides is a good pitch to hit. Overall, the result is a very complete hitter that could hit 25-30 home runs a year or more while getting on base at a high clip, which would put him among the best catchers in the league. Defensively, he got to Louisville with a similar "strong arm, fringy glove" perception that follows most high school catchers, but he's worked to improve that. The arm now grades out as among the best in the class, an absolute cannon that very few dare to run on, and when they did, he nabbed 13/28 (46.4%). Davis definitely still stands out more for his arm than his glove, but the latter has really improved and most would consider him an average defender in that regard, and with robot umpires likely coming in the near future, pitch framing may not be a factor soon anyways. Those familiar with Davis note that he's a tireless worker that grinds out practices and workouts, so he should continue to get better and better. This is serious all star catcher upside. He signed for $6.5 million, which was nearly $2 million below slot value, and he's slashing .308/.387/.808 with three home runs in eight games so far between the FCL and High A Greensboro.

2-37: LHP Anthony Solometo, Bishop Eustace HS [NJ]. My rank: #27.
This is a huge talent to get in the second round, and he signed for close to the slot value of the 24th overall pick. If you ask his proponents, they would tell you Anthony Solometo was the second best high school pitcher in the class behind only third overall pick Jackson Jobe, and it's hard to find people who don't like him. He has a very unique operation on the mound, starting with a wide first step and a high leg kick in which his knee nearly touches his chin, then continuing with an extremely pronounced arm circle in which he reaches the baseball way back towards third base before whipping all the way back into place and firing towards home plate. He's an exceptional athlete and despite limbs flying in every direction, it's very loose overall and he repeats his delivery surprisingly well. Solometo's fastball sits in the low 90's and has touched 96, while his slider has continually improved and now flashes plus with late bite and nice depth. For now, he mainly pitches off those two, but he can unveil a changeup when he needs it and it shows some promise once he starts working it more consistently. The 6'3" lefty pours strikes into the zone and even shows the ability to locate them, something you don't always see from teenage pitchers and especially not ones with unconventional deliveries. You can get unorthodox pitchers with strong command, but usually they have to go to school first to get more consistent with their funky deliveries before they settle in. The Pirates will want to continue to work with the South Jersey native to ensure it holds up over an increased pro workload, as well as add a changeup, but they're starting from a really good spot. Committed to UNC, he signed for $2.8 million, which was roughly $800,000 above slot value.

CBB-64: OF Lonnie White Jr., Malvern HS [PA]. My rank: #32.
In Lonnie White Jr., the Pirates are getting a supreme athlete who was actually committed to Penn State to play football as well as baseball. As with most two-sport stars, he's relatively raw on the baseball diamond, but when you take his split focus into account he actually looks extremely natural out there. White packs a ton of lean strength into his 6'3" frame and produces above average raw power from the right side, using a surprisingly smooth and leveraged swing to get to that power in games. He also shows good feel for hitting and selects good pitches to hit, something that most two-sport stars lag behind in, though White does need some more time to get his timing down against premium stuff. As you'd expect from a Big Ten wide receiver, the Coatesville native (far western Philadelphia suburbs) has plus speed and for that reason has a chance to stick in center field, though he'll need to refine his reads and routes. There's a ton of upside here as a potential 20-20 threat who could pop for 30 homers at his peak, and if his hit tool takes its natural progression once he starts focusing on baseball only, we could see some solidly high on-base percentages as well. I'm personally bought into White's upside and I think the Pirates are getting a future star here, so I love the pick. He signed for $1.5 million, which was roughly $450,000 above slot value, and he's picked up three hits in five at bats so far in the FCL.

3-72: RHP/SS Bubba Chandler, North Oconee HS [GA]. My rank: #34.
Eight picks after stealing one of Penn State head coach James Franklin's incoming wide receivers, the Pirates turned their attention to Clemson's Dabo Swinney and grabbed one of his incoming quarterbacks. Bubba Chandler is a Georgia sports superstar, who could have been drafted quite early as a position player and is also a four star QB, but his upside as a pitcher is higher than all else and the Pirates will take him in that direction. Chandler was on the radar over the summer but more in the second to third round range, but came out this spring with a big uptick in his stuff that bumped him up into first round conversation. His fastball now sits consistently in the low to mid 90's and has been popping some 97's, with even more likely to come. He throws a hammer of a curveball that looks plus at its best, while his changeup is very advanced for a high schooler and even flashes plus when he grips it just right. Everything comes from an athletic, fluid delivery that enables him to throw consistent strikes and hold his stuff deep into games. Now that the 6'3" righty is dropping football and likely hitting soon as well, he has a chance to take off even further and develop into an ace. To reach that lofty ceiling, he'll have to refine his command a bit further and it wouldn't hurt to get a little more confident in his slider, which very much functions as his fourth pitch for now. It looks like the Pirates might use him as a hitter as well a bit early on where, he shows above average power from both sides of the plate and his above average speed and cannon arm could make him an asset at shortstop. Chandler signed for $3 million, which was more than $2.1 million above slot value and roughly the slot value for the 22nd overall pick, while he actually has one hit in eleven at bats in the FCL.

4-102: RHP Owen Kellington, U-32 HS [VT]. Unranked.
Vermont ranks near the bottom of the fifty states when it comes to producing baseball talent, so Owen Kellington's selection here in the fourth round means a great deal to the Green Mountain State. Kellington was a bit off the radar considering he wasn't seen much on the summer showcase circuit and played his high school ball over one hundred miles from Albany, Manchester, and Portland, the closest major cities, and roughly 150 miles from Boston (though he's technically just within a hundred miles of Montreal). For now, he sits in the low 90's with his fastball and has topped out around 93-94, which isn't quite overpowering yet but he's not done adding velocity. His main weapon is a hammer curveball with big depth that will only get better as he adds more power to it, though he needs to work on his changeup further. The 6'3" righty has plenty of room to grow into his frame and the Pirates will certainly work with him on his delivery, where he loses some stability when he leans backwards towards first base mid stride. As you'd expect with a high school pitcher drafted in this range, there's plenty of upside, but of course plenty of risk in a less-seen prep arm from off the beaten prospect path. Committed to UConn, he signed for $600,000, which was $28,600 above slot value.

5-133: 3B Jackson Glenn, Dallas Baptist. Unranked.
This guy has been around a while. Jackson Glenn played two years at Grayson JC in North Texas, then transferred back home to Dallas Baptist less than ten miles from where he grew up. He's been there for three years, so as a fifth year senior he's now set to turn 24 in October. He wasn't really on the prospect radar until this year, when he broke out for a monster season and slashed .366/.438/.732 with 21 home runs and a 33/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, leading the Patriots' furious charge first to the NCAA Tournament and then on to a third super regional game against Virginia, where he got on base in all four of his plate appearances in the team's season-ending loss. It's certainly an interesting profile for Glenn, who was older than most (but not all) of his competition this spring and had clearly progressed to another level, to the point where he really just looked extremely at home in the box at all times and was able to execute his game plan pretty much at will. He found the barrel extremely consistently and sprayed line drives all over the field, and because he was so comfortable, he could sit on pitches to turn on and that's where most of his 21 home runs came from. It will be interesting to see how he transitions to pro ball over a larger sample because he's clearly ready, and he should move very quickly. Against pro competition, it's probably an average power, average hit type of deal, which would produce maybe 10-15 home runs a year with decent on-base percentages. There's a little bit of split in the industry as to his defensive home, as he's not the quickest at second base but may not have the arm for third base and might be too short (5'11") for first base. The Pirates could try him out as a bat-first second baseman but of course he has Nick Gonzales to contend with (and he's actually a year and a half older than last year's seventh overall pick), with the ultimate projection probably being somewhat of a Nick Solak type of situation (and he comps pretty well to Solak anyways, though Solak was significantly younger when he was drafted out of Louisville). The Dallas-area native signed for $12,500, which was $409,800 below slot value, and he's off to a red-hot start hitting .429/.545/.600 through twelve games, mostly at Low A Bradenton.

7-193: C Wyatt Hendrie, San Diego State. Unranked.
After taking San Diego State shortstop Mike Jarvis in the sixth round, the Pirates went back again and grabbed Aztec catcher Wyatt Hendrie in the seventh. His stock has steadily ticked up and he was drafted in the tenth round by the Cubs out of Antelope Valley JC out in the California desert in 2019, but headed to San Diego State instead. He had a big year in 2021 by slashing .379/.464/.633 with nine home runs and a 25/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 45 games in an admittedly hitter-friendly conference, giving evaluators confidence that he'll provide some offensive value in pro ball. Hendrie has a bit of a similar operation at the plate to first overall pick Henry Davis, coming from a bit of a crouched stands and staying low through his swing so he can get his eyes behind the ball. He doesn't have quite as much loft as Davis and of course is at least a full grade below in both power and hit, while his load is also a bit more pronounced with scissor-like extension in his lower half. The Palmdale, California native makes a ton of contact like Davis and regularly finds the barrel against solid pitching, proving to be extremely difficult to strike out (just 12% this spring). While he did significantly increase his power output this spring, he's still below average in that regard and the ball doesn't always jump off his barrel like some of the higher picks in this class, especially with wood. Behind the plate, he's new to catching and it shows at times, though he's a great athlete that has taken to it quickly and should be roughly average in that regard. Overall, he probably projects for 8-10 home runs with solid, batting average-driven on-base percentages in pro ball, which is a backup profile especially when you're stuck behind Henry Davis. Hendrie signed for $177,500, which was $67,400 below slot value, and is hitting .190/.217/.381 through seven games in the FCL.

8-223: RHP Sean Sullivan, California. My rank: #209.
Sean Sullivan has been an interesting one for a while over at Cal. He was so-so as an 18 year old freshman in 2019 but was a superstar in the elite Cape Cod League that summer (2.08 ERA, 48/7 K/BB in 43.1 IP), where he was one of the youngest players in the league (if not the youngest, but I don't feel like combing through rosters to confirm that). That summer, he showed a low 90's fastball, a sharp slider, and a solid curveball and changeup, and he commanded it all well to miss bats. Given his extreme youth, he had a chance to pitch his way into the first round conversation in 2021, but ultimately he's never quite regained that form in the two years since. In 2021, Sullivan put up a 3.68 ERA and a 75/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings. The above average command has held up from that Cape run, and in fifteen starts he never walked more than three batters or allowed more than four runs, earned or unearned. The stuff, though, has all ticked down a half grade. His fastball sits closer to 90 now while still scraping the mid 90's when he needs it, while his slider is a solid average pitch and remains his out pitch even if it's not a true weapon. The curveball and changeup are a bit fringier but flash average. The Los Angeles-area native has an uptempo delivery that reminds me a bit of Carson Fulmer, but he's a great athlete that repeats it well and gets good extension down the mound. Age is a major bonus here, as he won't turn 21 until October and is therefore up to a full year (or more) younger than many of his classmates, so he can be evaluated somewhat as a J2 player rather than a college junior. There's not a ton of projection left in his skinny 6'1" frame and he probably won't add more than a tick of velocity, but the Pirates are hoping that youth can help him regain some sharpness in his secondary stuff and outplay his #4 starter projection. Sullivan signed for $175,000, which was $17,900 below slot value.

10-283: RHP Justin Meis, Eastern Michigan. Unranked.
The Pirates second and third picks, Anthony Solometo and Lonnie White Jr., grew up on the New Jersey and Pennsylvania sides of the Philadelphia suburbs, respectively, so you could call them semi-hometown picks. Justin Meis is a true Yinzer though, a graduate of Bethel Park High School less than ten miles south of downtown Pittsburgh, and he headed northwest up to Eastern Michigan for college. While his stats in Ypsilanti haven't been eye-popping, he's gotten better and better and in 2021 had a 4.64 ERA and an 81/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings, and he showed well in the Cape Cod League by allowing just two runs and putting up a 16/2 strikeout to walk ratio in 14 innings over his final three starts. Meis brings a low 90's fastball that can touch the mid 90's in short stints, adding an inconsistent slider that looks like a weapon at its best but can flatten out at times. He also throws a changeup with nice fade, rounding out a solid three pitch arsenal. Though he has a long arm path and a somewhat high effort delivery, he repeats that delivery well and pounds the strike zone. The 6'2" righty might have some starter upside if the Pirates want to be patient and smooth some things out, but it might be best to just stick him in the bullpen and let the stuff tick up. If he gets there quickly, he could join David Bednar and give the Pirates two Pittsburgh products in their bullpen. Meis signed for $127,500, which was $22,000 below slot value, and he's allowed four runs (two earned) through 8.1 innings at Low A Bradenton, striking out ten.

13-373: RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada. My rank: #199.
This is a real sleeper for Pittsburgh. Owen Sharts was a well-known prospect out of high school, but ended up on campus at Nevada and leaves with his stock a little bit in flux. This spring, Sharts was off to a peculiar start with a 5.12 ERA and a 35/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, then went down with Tommy John surgery in April. So after a shortened 2020 season in which he only threw 22 innings and a full freshman season that's now two years behind us, it's difficult to get a handle on who Sharts is now, let alone who he will be when he returns from surgery in 2022. So far in his Nevada career, he has sat in the low 90's with his fastball and climbed to about 95, while his curveball has flashed true plus and can be an absolute weapon. He also throws a changeup that flashes average. The 6'2" righty has a pretty clean delivery and a history of providing consistent strikes, even if his control was perhaps a touch ahead of his command, but that control completely fell apart in 2021 before his injury. If he lost the strike zone simply because he wasn't feeling right, then the Pirates have a legitimate starting pitching prospect on their hands given his velocity and the presence of a plus offspeed pitch. He'll have to get it back though, because what we saw in 2021 was unplayable. The Los Angeles-area native signed for $125,000.

14-403: OF Braylon Bishop, Arkansas HS [AR]. My rank: #119.
This pick wasn't particularly surprising given that the Pirates drafted numerous high schoolers early that would require large over slot bonuses, so having Braylon Bishop as a backup plan in case one of them didn't sign was smart. What was surprising was that he turned out to be part of Plan A, and even though Pittsburgh got deals done with all of their expensive preps, he still signed for just sixth round money. Once he made it out of the draft's second day, it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that he was going to prove his tools at Arkansas, and this bonus was surprisingly low. Anyways, the Pirates are getting a supreme talent in Bishop who simply hasn't put it together yet. He's been a known commodity for a while now, showing up at numerous showcase events and standing out among his ultra-talented peers with some of the best tools in the class. The Texarkana native has plus raw power from the left side, a product of exceptional bat speed and plenty of loft in his uppercut hack. He's also a plus runner that can really change a game on the basepaths, and overall he just does things on the field that others can't. However, he's really struggled with inconsistency and has gone through stretches where he just looks overwhelmed. Bishop has long had a lot of moving parts in his swing, whipping the bat in all sorts of directions and changing his eye level, but he did come out this spring with a much cleaner looking operation. He still struggles with swing and miss, but Pittsburgh is hoping that more time with his simplified approach and a few more tweaks can get him going in that regard. He'll stick in center field, which takes some pressure off the bat, with his speed and a strong arm making him an asset as he continues to refine his game. There is a huge offensive ceiling here with the chance to post 20-20 or even 30-30 seasons, but it will take a lot of work. He signed for $268,700, of which $143,200 counts against the Pirates' bonus pool, and he has two singles in nine at bats so far in the FCL.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Texas Rangers

Full list of draftees

The Rangers went aggressive and took easily the best pitcher and arguably the best player in the draft with their second overall pick, Vanderbilt right hander Jack Leiter. That pick alone will define the class, but they continued to be aggressive later on and I like what they came away with. After going more than a million dollars below slot on second rounder Aaron Zavala, who in my opinion was a supreme talent anyways, they went well above slot to divert three high schoolers away from Texas Tech, LSU, and Florida State, respectively, over their next three picks. Then in rounds six through ten, they went back below slot to save up some money for a couple big splurges on day three. As I mentioned, Leiter is clearly and obviously the headliner, but there's plenty of upside in those other high school picks (especially fourth rounder Ian Moller) and my far and away favorite pick is Zavala, who I think will be a stud and was an absolute steal at the bonus they paid him.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-2: RHP Jack Leiter, Vanderbilt. My rank: #1.
Jesuit High School star Jordan Lawlar was mocked to the Rangers all year long, so while some in the Metroplex may have been disappointed to see Texas skip over the hometown kid from Irving, they did pick up arguably the best player in this draft class and top on my board. Jack Leiter has had nothing but praise heaped on him since he got to Vanderbilt, and he's deserved every bit of it as more or less the consummate pitching prospect. He was absolute dynamite this spring, posting a 2.13 ERA and a 179/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings against tough competition, with those 179 strikeouts tying with teammate Kumar Rocker to lead Division I. He allowed just one earned run over his first six starts, including 19.2 consecutive no-hit innings against Oklahoma State, South Carolina Missouri, and LSU, then after faltering a little bit in the middle of the season, got back on track and cruised the rest of the way. Leiter is absolutely the real deal. His fastball has steadily ticked up throughout his amateur career and now sits comfortably in the low to mid 90's with occasional peaks in the upper 90's. He throws both a curve and a slider, which can flatten out at times but more often than not look at least above average, if not plus at times. The curve is more top to bottom and can just freeze hitters, while the slider has more lateral movement and while there's not as much depth, it's harder and a bit sharper. His changeup is a bit behind the other pitches, looking more or less like an average pitch. A bit smaller at a skinny 6', he has picture perfect mechanics that enable him to efficiently channel every muscle in his body into each pitch, exploding off the mound and getting to his peak velocities without losing control. The northern New Jersey native has pretty much ideal fastball metrics, as his elite extension enables him to release the ball out in front like he was 6'3" or 6'4" while his shorter stature helps him keep his release point low, putting tremendous ride on his fastball. Overall, he really just needs to work on consistency. At his best, Leiter is ~literally~ unhittable as we saw in the aforementioned no-hit streak, and when you watch it live, you can just feel it through your TV. It seems hopeless to stand in the box against him. However, as we saw with a couple tough starts against Mississippi State and Florida in the middle of the season (two regional hosts), there are times when his stuff can flatten out and his command can fall to fringe-average. His fastball can get hit hard when he doesn't get it up in the zone, and when those breaking balls back up a bit, hitters can suddenly get their confidence back. That doesn't happen often though, and he knows how to snap back into the zone. Then he'll pump 95-96 right by you, get you to swing over a slider off the plate, and freeze you with a hammer curveball, all located with precision. To wrap it all up, Leiter has exceptional makeup and probably the best mound presence I've ever seen from an amateur, with the look of a stone cold killer at all times on the mound. He works extremely hard at his craft and has excellent feel for pitching, all of which will certainly serve him well in pro ball. He signed for $7.92 million, the largest bonus given out this year by more than a million dollars and $132,100 above slot value.

2-38: OF Aaron Zavala, Oregon. My rank: #35.
I would have loved this pick for the Rangers if they signed him for full slot, so the fact that it only took third round money to get Aaron Zavala means that this is one of my favorites in the entire draft. He wasn't really on the radar as a freshman, but since the start of 2020 he's hit .398/.519/.598 with ten home runs and a 34/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games, just forcing his way into early round conversation. Zavala has a lightning quick but effortless swing from the left side that opens up a whole host of opportunities for him as a hitter. His keen eye and exceptional feel for the barrel enable him to spray line drives around the field as consistently as anybody, while the sheer speed with which he whips that barrel through the zone helps him post high exit velocities that could be turned into more home run power in pro ball despite his skinny 6' frame. Honestly, the whole offensive package reminds me a little bit of a left handed Nick Gonzales, who went seventh overall to the Pirates last year, and I think he'll take to pro pitching very easily. His line drive approach and smaller frame have led to some questioning his future power output, though I think if the Rangers can help him add a little loft, we could see at least 15-20 a year if not more to go along with high on-base percentages. The Oregon native is an average athlete who won't be anything special in the outfield, but the bat is absolutely enough to carry him to a full time roll in my opinion. To top it off, he's young for the class and only turned 21 a couple weeks before the draft, giving him just a bit more opportunity to develop physically. Zavala signed for $830,000, which was more than $1.1 million below slot value, and is hitless in his first eight at bats (plus a walk) in the ACL.

3-73: SS Cameron Cauley, Barbers Hill HS [TX]. My rank: #137.
The Rangers are usually liable to select at least one athletic high school shortstop in the early rounds, and Cameron Cauley will follow in the footsteps of Thomas Saggese (2020), Cody Freeman (2019), Jonathan Ornelas (2018), Chris Seise (2017), and...you get it. Cauley, a product of Barbers Hill High School in Mont Belvieu just east of Houston, had a lot of fans in the region and perfectly fits in with the group ahead of him. He has a ton of twitchy athleticism in his 5'10" frame and gets the most out of it, playing hard on both sides of the ball and endearing himself to scouts. He makes a ton of hard contact and is almost always finding the barrel, shooting line drives around the field from gap to gap. Cauley hasn't had much trouble handling advanced pitching and can show some ambush power when he gets one in his wheelhouse, but he knows his game and for the most part he's very content being that line drive hitter. Given the height, it's hard to project more than average power in the future and he probably ends up a tick below, which would mean 10-15 home runs a year at peak, though his plus speed gives him another dimension with which to impact the game. He should be able to stick at shortstop with his speed and springy actions, though if he has to move to second base, he could be an asset there. It's a utility projection with a full time ceiling if he can continue to tack on strength and not sacrifice contact ability for power, in which case he could be more in the 15-20 home run range annually. Committed to Texas Tech, he instead signed for $1 million flat, which was $162,600 above slot value, and he's slashing .267/.313/.378 through eleven games in the ACL.

4-103: C Ian Moller, Wahlert Catholic HS [IA]. My rank: #106.
Ian Moller might have the highest ceiling of any high school catcher in this class outside of twelfth overall pick and current Mariner Harry Ford. He's a showcase monster, showing the massive tools that scouts dream about, and the Rangers have a chance to put that all together. Moller has an absolutely gorgeous right handed swing, a big, explosive uppercut that produces huge exit velocities and sends baseballs impressive distances. At times, he's shown the ability to catch up to advanced pitching as well and when he was going well, he was creeping his way towards the first round range on my board. However, he can be very inconsistent in games and that big swing can really get him in trouble at times, so while he shows a solid average to even above average pure hit tool at his best, it can be below average at others. There were some concerns about that this spring even against ordinary competition in the Midwest. Given his combination of plus raw power and his flashes of being able to tap it against stronger competition, there's All Star upside with the bat here if the Rangers can bring it out of him, but it will take work. We have a similar story on the defensive side. Moller has a strong arm behind the plate with a quick release that helps it play up further, and at times he's shown above average ability with the glove as well. Like his bat, the glovework is inconsistent in games, and at times I've seen him get frustrated with himself when he doesn't get the result he wants. Honestly, when he's at his best, there are really no holes in this profile, so the Texas development system will really have to bear down on the incredible natural talent and help him get to a place where he's finding it consistently. The Dubuque, Iowa native was committed to LSU but instead signed for $700,000, which was $134,400 above slot value, and he's hitting .240/.406/.480 with a home run through eight games in the ACL.

5-134: LHP Mitch Bratt, Georgia Premier Academy. Unranked.
Mitch Bratt wasn't really thought of as a top five round pick, but the Rangers saw something they liked in the MLB Draft League where he struck out 44 in 28 innings for West Virginia. Bratt is all projection at this point, sitting around 90 with his fastball but slowly creeping up towards the low 90's. He adds a big curveball with great depth and shape that functions as his best pitch for now and will always be a weapon for him. There's a changeup that he shows solid feel for as well, though it's a third pitch for now and will need more refinement. The 6'1" lefty has plenty of projection remaining and should continue to add power to all of his pitches, which he will need in order to succeed in pro ball. The good news is that he's a relatively polished strike thrower who commands the zone well for his age and controls at bats from the start, attacking hitters with a game plan and seldom hurting himself with frequent hitters' counts. That will bode well for his ceiling as he gets stronger and watches that fastball continue to tick up, so he has mid-rotation potential. Adding to the appeal is age, as he is young for the class and only turned 18 the week before the draft. The Ontario native was committed to Florida State but signed for $850,000, which was $431,800 above slot value, and he struck out three of the four he faced in his ACL debut.

12-344: RHP Jackson Leath, Tennessee. Unranked.
While Cameron Cauley is also from Texas as a Mont Belvieu native, Jackson Leath is the only player from North Texas drafted by the Rangers this spring. Leath grew up in Waxahachie just past the southern reaches of the Metroplex, then started off at Blinn JC in the Bryan-College Station area. After two seasons there, he transferred over to Tennessee, but has seen both his seasons cut short in Knoxville. In 2020, it was the COVID shutdown, and in 2021, it was a major hamstring injury that ended his season in just his second start. In his limited action, he's been dynamite, with a 1.08 ERA and a 37/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 25 innings, though none of those came against SEC opponents. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball as a starter but can touch 97 in short stints, while his slider is a weapon in the mid to upper 80's and helps him pick up most of his strikeouts. Leath also has feel for a curveball and a changeup, with both flashing average and the curveball occasionally above average, but it's really the fastball/slider combination that is his bread and butter. The 6'1" righty already faced some reliever questions prior to his hamstring injury in 2021, so for now, it's probably a relief outlook given his fringe-average command, skinny frame, and relatively high effort delivery (though it has improved). The Rangers could try to develop him as a starter if they want to be patient, but given that he already turned 22 in June, they may just want to get him moving through the system as a power two-pitch reliever. Leath signed for $125,000.

14-404: C Tucker Mitchell, State College of Florida Manatee-Sarasota. Unranked.
Now this is a fun one for me because I actually grew up playing baseball with Tucker Mitchell's older brother and I remember occasionally seeing him around tagging along to our games, though unfortunately I haven't seen him since elementary school so I don't have an inside edge on his game. An IMG product, he began his career at FAU but played sparingly and transferred to SCF Manatee-Sarasota for his sophomore year, where his stock exploded after hitting .382/.523/.657 with nine home runs and a 22/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games. He continued to show well in the MLB Draft League (.292/.415/.453), where he was teammates with fifth rounder Mitch Bratt on the West Virginia Black Bears, and ended up earning fifth round money to sign here in the fourteenth round. Mitchell shows above average raw power from the right side, having cleaned up his swing considerably since high school and adding loft much more naturally, while his strong 6'1" frame gives him plenty of leverage. He's a very patient hitter who was in total control of the strike zone against solid JuCo pitching in Florida and still drew a healthy share of walks in the MLB Draft League, though it did come with a bit of an elevated strikeout rate. I don't know much about his defense, though video from his high school days shows a bit of a choppy glove and a tendency to rush his transfer. That was a long time ago though, and there's a good chance that has improved with his glove. Committed to NC State, the Northern Virginia native instead signed for $325,000, of which $200,000 counts against the Rangers' bonus pool, and he's hitting .143/.250/.357 through four games in the ACL.

18-524: RHP Kyle Larsen, TNXL Academy [FL]. Unranked.
Kyle Larsen may have gone in the 18th round, but the Rangers see a supreme talent here and gave him third/fourth round money to sign (actually, it splits the different between the last pick of the third round and first pick of the fourth round). He's a big kid at a listed 6'2", 240 pounds, and he channels that size into power stuff. Larsen sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and is regularly up to 94-95, adding a sharp curveball that could be a plus pitch in time in addition to a changeup. He puts high spin rates on both his fastball and curveball that cause both to play up, and his low effort delivery means he gets power behind his stuff without exerting too much. The Orlando-area native can sometimes get offline with his delivery and will need to be a little more consistent with it, but the Rangers don't see that as a big issue and believe he'll iron it out pretty easily in time. Larsen was committed to Florida and the Rangers saw him as the type of guy who would develop into a workhorse ace for the Gators, then come out in 2024 with a shot to go in the top two rounds after a consistent run of strong performance in the SEC. He signed for $575,000, of which $450,000 counts against the Rangers' bonus pool.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Detroit Tigers

Full list of draftees

The Tigers injected a ton of mostly pitching talent this year, taking eight arms in their first ten picks. They came away with the top high school pitcher in the class as well as by some accounts the second best college pitcher in the class (fifth on my board). While the previous wave of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Beau Burrows, Tarik Skubal, and Kyle Funkhouser has been fairly hit and miss so far, Detroit is hoping to lay the groundwork for the next wave of pitching with names like Jackson Jobe, Ty Madden, and Dylan Smith, then possibly catch some lightning in a bottle with a more under the radar guy like Tyler Mattison, Tanner Kohlhepp, or Jordan Marks. While the system has no shortage of corner bats, Izaac Pacheco adds another one with a huge ceiling as well. It's kind of funny to write because I'm not the world's biggest Ty Madden fan, but getting him at #32 is still an absolute steal no matter where you land on him, so that's easily my favorite pick of this draft class for them. One last interesting trend I noticed was that their second, third, and fourth picks all grew up in the Houston area.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-3: RHP Jackson Jobe, Heritage Hall HS [OK]. My rank: #8.
Given that all four top prep shortstops were still on the board, many Tigers fans were unhappy with this pick and while I wouldn't have taken Jackson Jobe in this situation either, there's no denying that the Tigers got their man and that Jobe is an absolute stud. He entered the spring as arguably the second best pitching prospect in the high school class behind Andrew Painter, but the combination of a slow start for Painter and a hot one from Jobe flipped that convincingly and by July, he was the top prep arm by most accounts. Jobe is relatively new to pitching and earned serious draft buzz as a shortstop, but has rapidly and continually improved since stepping on the mound. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and can run it up to 97-98, all without a ton of effort. His slider is his best pitch, coming in with ridiculous spin rates that cause it to suddenly disappear at the last second, combining close to ideal power and shape and flashing plus-plus. Jobe also spins a sharp, above average curveball that is fully distinct from his slider, and he also throws one of the better changeups in the prep class. Everything plays up because he fills up the strike zone consistently, with above average control and average command that should only get better with more experience. The 6'2" righty is a great athlete that repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff deep into games, and he still has some projection remaining. Combining the power, deep arsenal, athleticism, and feel for pitching in general, there really isn't much to dislike here, with the only knock on Jobe (aside from his demographic) perhaps being his age, as he turned 19 a few weeks after the draft. That's really not a big issue given how new he is to pitching and how quickly he's taken to it. Prep right handers are very, very risky, but the Oklahoma City native has true top of the rotation potential and the Tigers are all in. Committed to Ole Miss, he instead signed for $6.9 million, which was $321,200 below slot value but still marked the second largest bonus in the class behind only Jack Leiter.

CBA-32: RHP Ty Madden, Texas. My rank: #18.
By ranking Ty Madden 18th, I was actually one of the low guys on him, as he came in at #9 at MLB Pipeline, #12 at Baseball America, and #13 at Prospects Live. He had one of the most complete profiles in the college pitching class and was largely expected to be off the board somewhere in the 8-15 range, and I don't think the Tigers even dreamed he'd be available at pick 32. Even if I was a bit lower than most on his outlook pre-draft, there's no denying that Detroit got incredible value here, especially given he didn't require a massive above slot bonus. Madden largely met the sky-high expectations set on him coming into the season, posting a 2.45 ERA and a 137/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings perhaps highlighted by a complete game, two hit shutout of Houston while striking out fourteen on March 5th. He was hit just a touch harder in Big 12 conference play (3.71 ERA, 60/20 K/BB in 53.1 IP), but he was still largely consistent and went at least six innings in sixteen of his eighteen starts and only allowed more than two earned runs on four occasions. An absolute workhorse, he sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and has run it up to 99, holding that velocity deep into games. Madden adds a slider and a changeup which switch back and forth as to which is better, with the slider looking plus on some days with late bite and the changeup looking above average on others. The 6'3" righty fills up the strike zone with both and has one of the best combinations of stuff and command in the class, effectively deploying his three pitches to work through lineups multiple times. Really, it's almost the perfect profile and perhaps five to ten years ago, he would have been considered a slam dunk top ten pick with a shot at the top five. The only knock here is approach angle, as the Houston-area native comes from a very high release point that puts steep angle on all of his pitches. That used to be a desired trade, but nowadays teams are looking for flatter angles that enable the fastball to ride up in the zone, whereas Madden is mostly confined to pounding the bottom of the zone with all of his pitches. The game is always changing and perhaps this once again becomes a valued profile, and either way, he certainly has the command and stuff to be effective living around the knees. He projects more as a #3 starter than an ace, but has a very high floor and has proven fully durable in Austin. He signed for $2.5 million, which was $242,700 above slot value and roughly slot for the 28th overall pick.

2-39: SS Izaac Pacheco, Friendswood HS [TX]. My rank: #47.
The industry was a bit split on Izaac Pacheco, but his fans saw one of the best power bats in the country just demolish local pitching this spring after a solid, if at times uneven, run through the summer showcase circuit. He produces massive raw power from the left side, a product of the strength, bat speed, and leverage he can produce from his 6'4" frame. That enables him to put on a show in batting practice and in games when he gets a hold of one, which he did frequently this spring. There are more questions about the hit tool, as he has a tendency to pull off the ball looking for pull side home runs and strides towards first base rather than towards the pitcher in his load. Additionally, Pacheco can chase at times as well and swing over the top of breaking stuff. Because of that, he might move a bit more slowly at the outset, but the Tigers believe he could be a few mechanical tweaks and a refined approach away from flipping from a below average to an above average contact hitter. If he does, the power will certainly play, and he has a chance for 30+ a year if he makes enough contact. Drafted as a shortstop, Pacheco probably fits better at third base in the long run because he's not all that quick, but he is excellent a vacuuming up the balls he can get to and with his plus arm, he could be a plus defender at third base. So really, the only question here is on the hit tool (admittedly the most important tool), and if Detroit can get that figured out, it's a great all-around profile for the second round. Rather than attend Texas A&M, the Houston-area native signed for $2.75 million, which was $843,200 above slot value and roughly the value of the 25th overall pick. Through 14 games in the FCL, he's slashing .200/.322/.300 with a home run and 22 strikeouts.

3-74: RHP Dylan Smith, Alabama. My rank: #68.
Detroit went back to the college pitching ranks and drafted a third kid in a row from the Houston area, scooping up Dylan Smith after a huge breakout year at Alabama. After two unremarkable years pitching out of the Crimson Tide bullpen, he ratcheted things up with a 3.84 ERA and a 113/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 98.1 innings as a starter this spring, capping it off with a complete game win over Rider in the Ruston Regional. Like Ty Madden, he was a bit more hittable in conference play (4.89 ERA, 68/15 K/BB in 57 IP) and especially prone to the long ball. The stuff is nasty, with Smith sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up to around 95-96, and he shows great feel to spin the baseball with a distinct slider and curveball that are both above average. The slider is a bit ahead of the curve, while he flips in a solid changeup that should continue to work for him in pro ball. For now, the control is ahead of the command, but he does pound the zone and with an athletic 6'2" frame and delivery, he'll likely continue to tighten it up within the zone. That should help with his home run issues, and he has a chance to pitch in the middle of the Detroit rotation in the not too distant future. There's certainly a lot to work with and a lot working for him already. The Houston-area native signed for $1.115 million, which was $270,800 above slot value.

4-104: RHP Tyler Mattison, Bryant. Unranked.
Tyler Mattison had a chance to be drafted last year, but when the draft was shortened to five rounds, those hopes largely went away. It ended up being a blessing in disguise for Mattison, who had the best year of his four year Bryant career this spring, posting a 2.46 ERA and a 95/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings and earned a much higher draft selection than he would have had. He may be a fourth year player but he's extremely young for the class and more or less age appropriate for the class below, so age isn't really much of a factor here and we can evaluate him along the same lines as most of the third year class. His fastball has been steadily ticking up and now sits in the low to mid 90's with some 98's and 99's, coming from a steep angle similar to the similarly-named Ty Madden. He adds a curveball that shows good depth and is coming along nicely, as well as a newer slider and a more established changeup that looks above average at times. The 6'4" righty has proven durable so far and significantly improved his command in 2021, giving the look of a #4 starter. He didn't face the strongest competition in the Northeastern Conference but the stuff is trending up quickly and should be able to rise to the challenge in pro ball. The far Upstate New York native signed for $400,000, which was $160,000 below slot value.

5-135: RHP Tanner Kohlhepp, Notre Dame. My rank: #154.
Tanner Kohlhepp is taking a long road to Detroit, having grown up in Wisconsin, begun his career at Tennessee, transferred to Iowa Western JC, and now finished off at Notre Dame just a few miles south of the Michigan border. He really found his stride in South Bend and put up a career year with a 3.08 ERA and a 65/22 strikeout to walk ratio over 61.1 innings mostly out of the Irish bullpen, often working two, three, four innings at a time. Kohlhepp shows a mid 90's fastball that can hit triple digits in short stints, adding a whole host of secondaries in a slider, cutter, and changeup. None stands out as a true plus weapon, but coming from his funky sidearm slot, they all miss bats darting in different directions while the big fastball keeps hitters from cheating to get to them. There's some effort in his funky operation that may keep the 6'4" righty from starting long term, and he'll definitely want to get better about hitting his spots within the zone, but his size and deep arsenal do give him a chance. He gets both lefties and righties out consistently and holds his stuff over multiple innings. Even if he does end up back in the bullpen, where he's fully comfortable, in my opinion there's no harm in running him out there as a starter and just seeing what happens. He is very old for his class and turned 22 in May. The Eau Claire native signed for $400,000, which was $14,000 below slot value.

7-195: LHP Brant Hurter, Georgia Tech. My rank: #195.
Brant Hurter had a chance to pitch his way into early round consideration in 2020, but Tommy John surgery took that opportunity away and he had to try again this year. Now nearly 23, he's coming off an up and down but all around solid campaign in which he posted a 3.90 ERA and an 83/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 85.1 innings, numbers that were really marred by a couple of tough starts against Louisville and Notre Dame. He sits around 90 with his fastball that can get up to 94-95 and adds a slider that looks plus on its best days, and usually at least above average. Hurter mainly sticks with those two pitches but can flip in a changeup when he needs to, and if he's going to start in pro ball, he should be able to incorporate that pitch more into his arsenal. The big 6'6" lefty has an interesting operation in which he doesn't really extend that far down the mound with his lower half, working around and then over the top of his plant leg to put some angle on the ball. Regardless, he consistently fills up the strike zone and aside from the Tommy John, he has proven durable so far and has thrown 187.1 innings in his three healthy seasons. Given his age and lack of velocity, I'd probably like to see him pushed to the bullpen and just work off the hopefully bumped-up fastball and slider, where he could move quickly. The Atlanta-area native signed for full slot value at $241,000.

9-255: RHP Garrett Burhenn, Ohio State. Unranked.
Though they haven't taken a player from Michigan or Michigan State since Jake Bivens and Grant Reuss in 2017 (neither of whom made it out of complex ball), the Tigers drafted an Ohio State Buckeye for the third consecutive season after Andrew Magno in 2019 and Dillon Dingler in 2020. Burhenn was on scouts' radars in the Midwest as an underclassman, but he really pushed himself forward by reinventing himself over the pandemic. After showing pretty ordinary stuff in 2019 and 2020, everything got a little crisper in 2021 and he finished with a 3.81 ERA and a 91/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 80.1 innings. His fastball sits in the low 90's with good spin, while his slider is an above average pitch and his brand new curveball works well off the slider. He also throws a changeup that looks like a solid average pitch. Burhenn has always pounded the strike zone, but he tended to get hit hard when he left his average stuff over the plate, but now that everything has improved a half grade, he's missed more bats and more barrels. The 6'3" righty has a durable frame and now has 192.2 collegiate innings under his belt despite the pandemic robbing him a full middle season, and his simplified delivery should help him stick as a back-end starter. The Indianapolis native signed for full slot value at $160,800.

16-465: RHP Jack Anderson, Florida State. Unranked.
This one might seem a bit under the radar, but Jack Anderson always caught my eye despite having more famous teammates. He had a strong year out of the Florida State bullpen and put up a 2.48 ERA with a 45/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 40 innings, usually working about one to two innings at a time. Anderson works with a low 90's fastball, a sharp mid 80's slider, and a changeup that gives him a third average or better pitch. He pounds the strike zone with everything and after walking three in his season-opening tuneup against North Florida, he went on a run of fourteen consecutive appearances without a free pass spanning 27.2 innings and struck out 35 in that span. I'm not usually a fan of college relievers, but I'll cut some slack in the sixteenth round despite the Tampa native's lack of a plus pitch because I think he'll make everything work really well together. If the Tigers can perhaps bring another tick of velocity out of his fastball, which I think is possible given his sturdy 6'3" frame, he has a chance to get into some high leverage situations down the line. He signed for $125,000.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Boston Red Sox

Full list of draftees

The Red Sox picked up arguably the best talent in the draft in Marcelo Mayer with the fourth pick, which on its own can define this draft class, but the rest of the class was a bit of a roller coaster. Second rounder Jud Fabian didn't sign after Boston offered him nearly a million dollars less than what he had asked for before they selected him (and what he likely could have gotten from another team), but they still managed to spend the rest of their bonus pool with big over slot bonuses to fifth rounder Nathan Hickey and eleventh rounder Niko Kavadas. It was a hitter-heavy class that featured bats in each of the first three picks and five of the first six, and I'm very interested in mid-round arms Wyatt Olds and Hunter Dobbins. Mayer has to be my favorite pick for obvious reasons, but I did like Olds and Kavadas a lot as well.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-4: SS Marcelo Mayer, Eastlake HS [CA]. My rank: #2.
Red Sox fans may have been hoping for Jack Leiter here, but they got just about as good of a consolation prize as you can get in Marcelo Mayer. There was a lot of talk about the high school shortstops who all received top five buzz, and to me, Mayer was fairly clearly the best. When I watched him hit for the very first time, I thought he was a power hitter because of the natural leverage and loft he puts into his left handed swing. Regardless of how far the baseballs were going, it was swing that was naturally conducive to producing power and maximizing distance. Then I learned he was actually a contact-over-power hitter, and that made the product even better. Mayer has excellent feel for the barrel and has hit consistently against the top arms in the country, perhaps more consistently than anyone in the class not named Jordan Lawlar, but to this point has shown average power. He's just 18 and a half, so it's virtually a guarantee that he will get stronger and grow into his ideal 6'3" frame, and that's when the magic is going to happen. Already touting a disciplined approach with very little swing and miss, he'll be able to add power to his game naturally without changing his mechanics, therefore without risking the plus hit tool. Once we get the finished product, it could be a legitimate 25-30 home run bat with high on-base percentages, and I see at least 20+ home runs a year as more likely than not for the kid who will absolutely get on base consistently. In the field, he makes up for a lack of plus speed with excellent instincts and body control, giving him the chance to be a plus defender at shortstop as well. The San Diego-area native is a vacuum at the position and has no problem throwing from any angle, sending the ball accurately across the diamond no matter where he fields it. There's really very little to dislike in this profile, which is why I had him ranked #2 on my board and really would consider it #1B, because him and Leiter are pretty much equal in my opinion. Awesome value at #4, especially considering they didn't have to go above slot to keep him away from Southern California. He signed for full slot value at $6.66 million and is slashing .214/.313/.357 with a home run through seven games in the FCL.

2-40: OF Jud Fabian, Florida. My rank: #22.
This one ultimately didn't work out as the second highest profile non-signing, obviously behind Kumar Rocker. My understanding is that Jud Fabian was allegedly asking for $3 million and had some teams in the 40's that were willing to offer it to him (my guess is that the Orioles were in there with their focus on college position players and the money they saved on Colton Cowser), but the Red Sox tried to call his bluff and offered him significantly less after drafting him. It wasn't a bluff, but the draft pick compensation rule means that the Red Sox won't feel much of a sting from their gamble, as they'll just get the 41st overall pick next year. As for Fabian, he was able to hold his ground on his asking price because he's extremely young for his class, not turning 21 until September, so he'll just be age appropriate (if slightly on the older side) for next year's class and still has two years of eligibility remaining. He's one of the most talented players in this entire class, and in 2021 he put up a very interesting .249/.364/.560 slash line with twenty home runs and a 79/40 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games against tough competition. The Ocala, Florida native has plus raw power coming from a quick uppercut, peppering baseballs out to all fields with high exit velocities and with plenty of loft under them, which of course is why he hit twenty home runs and had two-homer games against North Florida, Vanderbilt (off second overall pick Jack Leiter), Kentucky, and Georgia. Additionally, he manages the strike zone extremely well, rarely chasing and handling both velocity and quality breaking balls with ease. That helped him draw more than his fair share of walks and also helps him tap his power, but the major drawback in this profile is barrel accuracy. Even though he consistently picks good pitches to hit, he often swings through them and at one point struck out sixteen times in a five game stretch against South Carolina and Ole Miss just because he couldn't actually get the barrel where he wanted it. Ultimately, Fabian struck out at a very high 29.3% clip on the season, so he'll go back to Florida and try to set things straight or at least get a bit more consistent. He's a plus defender in center field that combines above average speed with great jumps and a good arm. The Red Sox only offered a couple hundred thousand above slot, but even before they drafted him they knew he asked for about $1.14 million above slot and he held out for what he felt he was worth.

3-75: 2B Tyler McDonough, North Carolina State. My rank: #113.
I always had a hunch that I liked Tyler McDonough, and I guess the Red Sox did too because they drafted him another full round ahead of where I had him, which was already higher than most of the industry (#112 at MLB Pipeline, #126 at Baseball America, #207 at Prospects Live). He was eligible as a sophomore in 2020 because he was a full year older than his graduating class, but despite hitting .327/.405/.473 over his first two seasons, he went undrafted in the shortened draft. Had they gone a few more rounds, McDonough probably would have heard his name called. This year, he had a career-best season by slashing .339/.423/.631 with 15 home runs and a 48/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games, pushing himself a few rounds up from where he would have been last year. He's a bit undersized at 5'10", but taps all of his power with a leveraged swing and good bat speed. McDonough also has good bat to ball skills that help him find the barrel consistently, and he could hit 15-20 home runs a year at his peak. Though he's a switch hitter, there's a little bit of Dustin Pedroia in his profile with his scrappy style of play, at least offensively. The Cincinnati-area native isn't quite the defender that Pedroia is, but he brings that energy on defense as well and can play all over the diamond, including corner outfield, second base, or even catcher if you're feeling crazy. He's already 22 and I don't know that I would confidently project him as a full time player, more as a super utility man, though he does have nice upside as a solid all-around hitter who can get on base, hit for some moderate pop, and steal a few bases as well. McDonough signed for $828,600, which was $2,500 below slot value, and he's hitting .222/.222/.333 through seven games between the FCL and Low A Salem.

4-105: RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Leadership Christian Academy [PR]. Unranked.
This was a bit of an off the radar pick, as the Red Sox headed to Puerto Rico to pick up a projectable young arm. Projection is indeed the name of the game, as Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz has a ton of room to fill out his rail thin 6'3" frame, while his fastball has ticked up from the mid 80's during his junior year in high school to around 90 now with top speeds around 94-95. Rodriguez-Cruz also flashes an above average curveball with sharp, late bite, but it's inconsistent and can flatten out at times. It also wouldn't hurt to add some power to it, which he will. Lastly, he shows feel for a solid changeup unlike most kids his age, and together it's a really good base for the future. The Red Sox will have to help him get more consistent with his delivery, which he doesn't always keep in sync, in turn affecting his arm slot and command. If Boston can iron the San Juan-area native out, there is big potential for a mid-rotation starter, but it will be a long time coming. Given the frame and age (he's extremely young for the class and didn't turn 18 until more than a month after the draft), Rodriguez-Cruz will undoubtedly continue to add velocity and the Red Sox are buying in early. Committed to Oregon, he instead signed for $497,500, which was $56,800 below slot value.

5-136: C Nathan Hickey, Florida. My rank: #87.
Nathan Hickey can really hit, there's no doubt about it. Over two years at Florida, he slashed .316/.436/.539 with 13 home runs and a nearly even 55/52 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games, looking right at home in their loaded lineup from day one. Hickey shows above average power from the left side, a product of a very strong 6' frame, and he taps it consistently in games and against good pitching. He takes very professional at bats and selects good pitches to hit, handling velocity and good breaking stuff pretty consistently. There's a little bit of swing and miss when he lets his swing get too long and it will be something to watch, though his keen aye at the plate does mitigate that a little bit. The Jacksonville-area native could project for 20+ home runs a year and solid on-base percentages, which would be a fantastic profile if he can stick behind the plate. He's very choppy back there and will need considerable work to stick, and it's probably more likely that he goes to first base because he's a well below average runner. That puts more pressure on his bat, which is still enough to work into the every day lineup at peak, but if he falters in that regard it might be more of a platoon projection. Hickey signed for $1 million, which was $589,900 above slot value, and he's hitting .235/.316/.294 through five games in the FCL.

6-166: SS Daniel McElveny, Bonita Vista HS [CA]. Unranked.
The Red Sox scouting crew must have spent a lot of time on the east side of Chula Vista, California. After grabbing Eastlake High School shortstop Marcelo Mayer in the first round, they went less than two miles down Otay Lakes Road to grab crosstown rival Bonita Vista High School's starting shortstop, Daniel McElveny, five rounds later. The Red Sox see some similarities to Mayer and believe McElveny could be a sleeper, though as you'd expect his game isn't quite where Mayer's is now. He shows a smooth, whippy swing from the right side that is geared to add more power as he tacks on strength to his 6' frame, and he has a pretty good approach at the plate that helps him select good pitches to hit. While Mayer is a bit taller at 6'3", McElveny is faster and has the range to play shortstop, though Mayer has the better arm and will likely push McElveny second base, where he could be a plus defender in time. Had he gone to San Diego State, he may have blossomed into one of the West Coast's better hitters, and the Red Sox believe they're buying into that before it happens. He signed for $197,500, which was $109,300 below slot value, and he's hitless in three at bats so far in the FCL.

7-196: RHP Wyatt Olds, Oklahoma. My rank: #189.
I normally don't like relief prospects because they're a dime a dozen, but Wyatt Olds really fascinates me and I think he has true closer upside. Mostly a starter at Oklahoma, he was up and down this spring and posted a 5.23 ERA and a 101/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 75.2 innings including dominant outings against Houston and Texas and some rough ones against Arizona, Arkansas State, and TCU. Olds shows a low 90's fastball as a starter but can touch 97 in short stints, while his slider can be nasty in the mid 80's. He's toyed with a changeup in his starting role but hasn't quite found a feel for it, while his strike throwing can be erratic and he walked eight batters in a start against Oklahoma State (but only allowed one hit in five innings, interestingly enough). The 6' righty can make everything play up, however, because he comes from a very unique angle, reaching way back in his stroke before whipping around to a wide, low three quarters arm slot that puts a ton of ride on his fastball. That in turn can play extremely well off his slider when it's located, and I can see that playing way up in relief. He was much better in that role this spring (2.70 ERA, 35/7 K/BB in 23.1 IP) and I could seriously see him throwing in high leverage situations in the near future. You don't need to waste a top 100 pick on a college reliever who can "move quickly" when you can find one just as good in the seventh round by converting a starter. The central Oklahoma native signed for $236,500, which was $2,500 below slot value, and he tossed a shutout inning in his FCL debut.

8-226: RHP Hunter Dobbins, Texas Tech. Unranked.
Texas area scouts were excited to see what Hunter Dobbins had in store in 2021 coming off a strong shortened 2020 in which he put up a 1.35 ERA and a 25/5 strikeout to walk ratio over 20 innings, but he went down with Tommy John surgery just before the season and never got on the mound. The Red Sox must have been awaiting his 2021 breakout more excitedly than most, and they'll expect that to happen in 2022 when he's healthy. Previously sitting in the low 90's, he experienced a velocity bump over the offseason and touched 98 in workouts, and he adds a sharp curveball that flashes plus at its best. For now, he mainly pitches off those two pitches, and if he wants to stick in the rotation he'll have to work on his fringy changeup. The 6'2" righty has more starter upside than Wyatt Olds in my opinion because he's a better strike thrower and has a bit cleaner of an operation, but of course he'll have to prove he's healthy in 2022 (though Tommy John is basically routine at this point). There's a bit of effort in the delivery and that may have to be smoothed out a bit for him to throw six-plus innings every fifth day. The Bryan, Texas native signed for $197,500, which was $8,600 above slot value.

11-316: 1B Niko Kavadas, Notre Dame. My rank: #170.
Many older prospects like Niko Kavadas tend to take discounts to go earlier in the draft, where he had numerous offers, but he held out for what he wanted and signed for sixth round money in the eleventh round. Kavadas is a country-strong ball of muscle at a listed 6'1", 235 pounds, and he was one of the best hitters in the country this spring by slashing .302/.473/.767 with 22 home runs and a 55/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 games against a tough ACC schedule. As you'd expect, the northern Indiana native has some tremendous raw power, as evidenced by this absolute moonshot against Braves first rounder Ryan Cusick or this intergalactic cannonball against potential 2022 first rounder Landon Sims that left me frozen in shock when I saw it in real time, a product of brute strength more than anything else. As evidenced by the two linked home runs plus many more, he has no problem whatsoever handling high velocity and identifies quality offspeed stuff well, which should help him move quickly through the minors. There is some swing and miss in his game and he struck out in a quarter of his plate appearances this spring, but that was against good competition and he drew plenty of walks because of his ability to discern hittable pitches from the ones he doesn't want. It's more a matter of execution on those balls in the zone than anything else. Nobody is mistaking Kavadas for an athlete, with his bottom of the scale speed and fringy glove, so first base is the best case scenario and he may just end up a full time DH. You can comp him to David Ortiz if you want, though whereas Ortiz had a 60 grade hit tool, Kavadas is probably a 40, so don't expect numbers quite that good. Maybe Matt Adams is a more realistic comp, especially with Kavadas set to turn 23 in a few months. He signed for $250,000, of which $125,000 counts against the Red Sox' bonus pool, and he's hitting .286/.500/.643 with a home run through five games in the FCL.

2021 MLB Draft Review: Baltimore Orioles

Full list of draftees

For the second straight year, the Orioles went way below slot in the top five to get a left handed Texan outfielder, following Amarillo native and Arkansas Razorbacks slugger Heston Kjerstad at second overall last year with Colton Cowser this year. I honestly don't love the class they pulled together, as even after pick #5 they went below slot again at picks #41 and #65. They spent most of their savings on prep catcher Creed Willems ($812,300 over) and Kentucky outfielder John Rhodes ($556,800 over), but still fell more than $150,000 short of spending their entire bonus pool. The draft is the single most cost-effective way to add talent to your organization, so I don't know why you wouldn't be more aggressive, especially when you hold the fifth overall pick and four of the first 76. In terms of draft patterns, it was a very hitter-heavy class with ten of their first eleven picks being position players, while Willems was not just the only high schooler, but the only player below 21 in the entire class (technically Rhodes and Daniel Lloyd turned 21 a few weeks after the draft, but they are currently 21). Baltimore prioritized college performance, with the majority of their picks showing loud slash lines at whatever level they played. It was also a class heavy on southerners, with seven of their first eight picks hailing from Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas again, Louisiana, Georgia, and Texas once more, respectively. I'd say my favorite picks were second rounder Connor Norby and fourth rounder Donta' Williams.
Full index of team reviews here. Full rankings here.

1-5: OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State. My rank: #15.
Most projected Colton Cowser to go more in the pick 7-14 range, but the Orioles saw a chance to save some money and jumped on him here at #5. He was considered the fourth best prospect on his high school team, which included 2019 top picks JJ Goss (Rays, 36th overall) and Matthew Thompson (White Sox, 45th overall) as well as fellow 2021 top pick Ty Madden (Tigers, 32nd overall via Texas). As it turned out, he beat all of their draft positions rather comfortably and you could argue he's the best of the bunch today. Cowser had a huge freshman season at Sam Houston State (.361/.450/.602), but never quite got rolling in the shortened 2020 season and slumped to start 2021, hitting .263 with two home runs against a weak schedule into late March. However, he immediately turned things around with four home runs over his next two games and never looked back, homering in five straight games at another point and finishing the season at .374/.490/.680 with 16 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and a 32/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He has spent his time in Huntsville facing a relatively mediocre schedule, but as a career .354/.460/.608 hitter with 24 home runs and more walks than strikeouts, what more can you really ask of him? He swung the bat well against tough competition as a rising sophomore on the US Collegiate National Team back in 2019 and has proven his plus hit tool time and again, managing the strike zone very well and executing well on his swings. It's a relatively flat swing that's more geared for line drives at this point, but he's still filling out his 6'3" frame and has a chance to grow into above average power. For now, despite the 16 home runs this year, it's more average than above average because he doesn't produce big exit velocities. The Houston-area native is an above average runner who has a chance to stick in center field, and if the Orioles are drafting him here, they certainly believe he will. It will be interesting to see how he develops physically because if he tacks on a bunch of strength, he may slow down and have to move to a corner, where he could be a 20+ home run bat with high on-base percentages. If his body stays mostly the same and he doesn't slow down, we might be looking at more of a 15-20 home run profile. Overall, it's definitely an impact bat who should hit at or near the top of the lineup for a long time. He signed for $4.9 million, which was roughly $1.28 million below slot value, and he's off to a hot .405/.489/.622 start through eleven games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

2-41: 2B Connor Norby, East Carolina. My rank: #42.
Connor Norby was not even remotely on the prospect map after hitting .194/.286/.290 as a freshman pinch hitter with limited physical tools, but since the start of his sophomore year, he has simply forced his way into the spotlight through nonstop mashing. From 2020-2021, he hit .412/.476/.627 with 16 home runs and a 44/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games. This year, he had three separate double digit hitting streaks including one that reached twenty games, and he had more three hit games (ten) than hitless games (seven). He has exceptional barrel accuracy that enables him to do damage virtually anywhere in the zone and even sometimes outside of it, rarely getting fooled and often still making hard contact when he does. Few players in this class fit the "knack for hard contact" description better than Norby does, so even if he isn't the biggest or strongest guy in the class at 5'10", he maximizes his raw power consistently in games by simply finding the barrel at a high volume. When you smoke at least two to three line drives a game, quite a few are bound to go out. The glove isn't quite as special, as his average athleticism will limit him to second base, but he'll hit enough to profile there. The transition to pro ball should be quick and easy even coming from a mid major conference, and the Winston-Salem-area native projects for home run totals somewhere in the teens to go along with high on-base percentages. Being young for the class and having turned 21 in June helps. He signed for $1.7 million, which was roughly $110,000 below slot value, and he's slashing .182/.243/.273 through ten games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

CBB-65: OF Reed Trimble, Southern Mississippi. My rank: #136.
The Orioles continued their run on mid major college performers from the South here, picking up Southern Miss outfielder Reed Trimble. He's coming off a huge redshirt freshman season in which he slashed .345/.414/.638 with 17 home runs and a 46/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 games, capped off by a sensational run through the Oxford regional in which went 14-25 with three home runs against Florida State, Southeast Missouri State, and Ole Miss. He generates above average power from a quick, forceful uppercut that punished the decent C-USA pitching he faced this spring, even from a skinny 6' frame. Trimble is an aggressive hitter who attacks early in the count and can find himself falling behind often, but he still managed a respectable 17.2% strikeout rate even as he rarely walked. He'll probably want to learn to be a bit more patient, as pro pitchers will attack his vulnerable spots and get him even more consistently into 0-1, 0-2 holes. Additionally, the Jackson-area native is a plus-plus runner who absolutely flies around the bases, so drawing a few more walks would certainly not be a bad thing. That speed serves him well in center field as well, where he projects to stay and could be the one to push Colton Cowser to a corner if he hits enough. The aggressive approach led to some pause in the industry as to whether he profiled as an everyday player, especially since he wasn't playing in a power conference, but Trimble's big regional performance assuaged those concerns a bit. He has a chance for 15-25 home runs per season with decent on-base percentages and plenty of stolen bases. Draft-eligible in his second year due to a very early birthday, he's just two days older than Connor Norby and is therefore younger than most collegiate players. He also took a discount by signing for $800,000, which was roughly $230,000 below slot value, and he's hitting .286/.464/.333 through eight games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

3-76: OF John Rhodes, Kentucky. My rank: #123.
After saving over $1.6 million with their first three picks, the Orioles spent some of that money here on the rare big over slot splash from the college ranks. It's a bit of an interesting over slot bonus, because #76 is way above where most have him ranked and my #123 ranking was actually higher than Prospects Live (#125), MLB Pipeline (#134), and Baseball America (#172). I guess that points to a big split on where the industry and the media saw him fitting, or at least the Orioles. John Rhodes wasn't the biggest name recruit when he got to Kentucky, but scouts quickly learned his name after he hit .426/.485/.672 in his shortened 17 game freshman season last year. 2021 was certainly a bit more up and down and Rhodes finished at .251/.397/.508 with eleven home runs and a 38/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 games, showing flashes of multiple different ways he can develop. It's not huge raw power, but he taps what he has and hit some moonshots this spring when he let it rip, though that tendency to over swing at times led to very inconsistent performance. When he stays within himself, the Chattanooga-area native takes very professional at bats and works counts well, and he even tied for second in the SEC by getting hit by 18 pitches. He'll have to decide what kind of hitter he wants to be going forward, because there's certainly above average power when he tries to tap it but to this point he hasn't learned to tap it naturally, while he certainly has the plate discipline to be a productive line drive hitter. The Orioles like his age, as he was only barely eligible this spring as a second year player and just turned 21 a week before I released this review, and they believe that youth will give him extra time to grow into his game. Rhodes is a good runner who has a chance to be an above average right fielder, though center field is a stretch especially when he's in the same draft class as Colton Cowser and Reed Trimble. He signed for $1.38 million, which was $556,800 above slot value, and he's hitting .259/.375/.370 through nine games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

4-106: OF Donta' Williams, Arizona. Unranked.
I was well aware of Donta' Williams before the draft, but I never had the chance to dig deep enough into him to add him to my list and he's definitely one of the guys I wish I got to. Williams has gotten better and better every year at Arizona, culminating in a great fourth season in which he slashed .342/.481/.538 with eight home runs and a 40/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games. Hitting at the top of an absolutely loaded Wildcats offense and manning center field, he was among the team's on and off field leaders as they clubbed their way to a College World Series berth. He's the consummate leadoff hitter in that he's adept at working counts and draws a ton of walks (and gets hit by a ton of pitches), getting on base at close to a .500 clip over the last two seasons. Even when he doesn't get on, because he sees and positively identifies so many pitches, he can fulfill the leadoff role by reporting back to the rest of the lineup on a pitcher's stuff. The eight home runs in 2021 were a bit of a surprise after he clubbed just three over his first three seasons, and he projects for below average power in pro ball. Defensively, he has elite feel for the outfield and makes every play he can, playing hard and playing smart out there to minimize baseballs on the ground despite a lack of plus speed. Having watched him plenty in college, the Las Vegas native is just a fun player to watch and should become a fan favorite in Baltimore. There's not as much ceiling here as the guys above him just due to the lack of power and the fact that he's already 22, but it's a pretty safe bet fourth outfield type who won't give away at bats and would be a good defensive replacement late in games. He signed for $400,000, which was $149,000 below slot value, and he's staying true to form by slashing .333/.481/.429 through nine games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

5-137: RHP Carlos Tavera, Texas-Arlington. Unranked.
The only pitcher the Orioles drafted in the first ten rounds, Carlos Tavera might have a bit more pressure riding on him to perform, though he should be up to the task. He struggled as a freshman at UTA in 2018 and transferred to Weatherford JC in 2019, then came back to Arlington and has been much better. In 2021, he had a career year with a 3.04 ERA and a 117/33 strikeout to walk ratio over 83 innings, highlighted by nine no-hit innings against Arkansas-Little Rock in a game that ultimately took eleven to complete. Tavera sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can reach back for up to 95, adding a slider with great shape and a changeup with nice fade. His command has improved steadily and is now fringe-average, and his stuff plays up because he gets down the mound well, releases the ball out in front, and gets high spin rates. For those reasons, the Orioles believe the 6'1" righty could continue to get better despite turning 23 early in the upcoming offseason, with a chance to become a #3 or #4 starter if he takes small steps forward across the board. Positive trajectory is always a good thing and he certainly has it. The Fort Worth native signed for #375,000, which was $31,000 below slot value, and he tossed a shutout inning in his Low A Delmarva debut, walking one and striking out two.

6-167: SS Collin Burns, Tulane. Unranked.
The Orioles are starting a little bit of a Tulane to Baltimore pipeline after drafting Hudson Haskin a year ago and adding Collin Burns and 15th rounder Keagan Gillies this year. Burns is coming off a huge breakout year for the Green Wave after slashing .353/.410/.571 with eight home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 42/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 55 games. He's an aggressive hitter who loves to attack fastballs early in the count, and when he gets them, he usually puts them in play. That suppresses his walk rates a bit and an get him in trouble with two strikes, but he still kept his strikeout rate to a reasonable 15.7% and did a ton of damage against a reasonably strong AAC schedule (plus a 6-14 series against Mississippi State, including a triple and a home run). He's not huge at 5'11", but he deploys his strength effective into fringe-average power, which will be plenty enough to keep pitchers honest in pro ball. The New Orleans-area native has a solid glove and plays hard at shortstop, and while he'll likely never be a plus defender, he should be adequate if the Orioles don't have better options. I don't really see an everyday player here, so he'll probably move around all the infield positions as a utility guy, but he'll be one who can get the job done on both sides of the ball. His plus speed gives him an extra way to impact the game. Burns signed for $375,000, which was $70,800 above slot value and he's hitting .333/.433/.417 through eight games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

7-197: C Connor Pavolony, Tennessee. Unranked.
The Orioles added to their catching depth with Connor Pavolony, who had been Tennessee's starting catcher for most of the past three seasons. He might not have been the most explosive hitter in what was a loaded Tennessee lineup this spring, finishing at .260/.365/.442 with seven home runs and a 46/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 49 games, but the Orioles certainly like what they're getting. He packs a lot of strength into his 6'1" frame and has natural feel to really whip the barrel through the zone, creating plenty of torque and some nice exit velocities. Pavolony doesn't always tap that power with a fringy hit tool that led to a 25% strikeout rate this spring, but he hit much better during the second half of the season and all seven of his home runs came from April 11th onwards. With the bat trending in the right direction, Baltimore felt comfortable enough to take a day two swing at him, especially given that he's an above average defender with an above average arm. That takes a ton of pressure off his bat and while it's more of a backup profile, especially given the presence of Adley Rutschman, he has a chance to impact the games he gets into. A Rutschman-Pavolony combination could definitely be reality in Baltimore pretty soon, though he'll want to move quickly because of the man the Orioles drafted right behind him. The Atlanta-area native signed for $325,000, which was $88,000 above slot value, and he's slashing .208/.321/.417 through eight games between the FCL and Low A Delmarva.

8-227: C Creed Willems, Aledo HS [TX]. Unranked.
Given that it ultimately required slot value for the 66th overall pick to divert Creed Willems from a firm TCU commitment, this was a completely off the radar pick. Willems went unranked on both MLB Pipeline's top 250 and Prospects Live's top 600, and only barely cracked Baseball America's top 500 at #453. The Orioles put a lot of eggs in this basket and believe they could be catching lightning in a bottle, and if they let him head east to Fort Worth for school, he could have become a much more in-demand prospect. Willems is a big boy at a listed 6', 225 pounds, and he uses that size well in his all-around game. First off, it gives him big raw power from the left side, and he's not afraid to use it with a healthy hack that can send the ball a long distance. The hit tool is pretty unproven for now, so he might move slower than most, and that does create some risk. Behind the plate, he moves well for his size and can get that big body in front of errant pitches pretty effectively, and while his transfer can be a bit slow at times, he has a cannon arm to make up for it and has actually touched 94 on the mound. The Orioles see true starting catcher upside here (maybe not enough to unseat Adley Rutschman but they'll figure that out later), especially as he gets into a pro conditioning program and really starts to build up muscle. The fact that he's young for the class, turning 18 just over a month before the draft, also points to more chances to develop both his skill set and his physicality. Willems signed for $1 million, which was $812,300 above slot value, and he has one hit in seven at bats in the FCL.