Louisville at Virginia Tech
4/13: UL 3, VT 2
4/14: UL 3, VT 1
4/14: UL 16, VT 1
I wasn't able to make it to much of this series, attending the first two innings of Game One, the entirety of Game Two, and none of Game Three. English Field premiered its new scoreboard which included a radar gun, but I was told that the stadium gun was inconsistently about 2-5 miles per hour cold so when I write about velocity, much of it is an estimate. Because I only saw about eleven innings of baseball, this report will be shorter than the NC State one.
General Notes
Virginia Tech
With the sweep, the Hokies fell to 15-20, and their ACC record fell to 6-12 despite a down year for most of the league and a lack of ranked opponents outside of NC State. Virginia Tech played poorly during the series, struggling to produce runs throughout the series and, when I was watching during Game Two, looking lost against sophomore lefty Nick Bennett. From a national or even an ACC perspective, the Hokies are not yet deserving of much attention, and while they possess the ability to take a game off a good team (see NC State, Virginia), they're unlikely to pose much of a threat to any power five team. From what I hear, new head coach John Szefc has the team trending in the right direction, at least internally, but the results have yet to translate onto the field.
Louisville
The sweep puts the Cardinals at 24-11, and it has definitely been an interesting season in Louisville. The Cardinals actually began the season with fourteen straight wins, including two over UNC, but they promptly lost eleven of their next seventeen games before beating Northern Kentucky then sweeping Virginia Tech. The loss of Brendan McKay certainly leaves a huge hole in the roster, and with guys like Drew Ellis, Kade McClure, Devin Hairston, Lincoln Henzman, Logan Taylor, Colby Fitch, and more all lost to pro ball from last year's team, this year's rendition of the Cardinals is very young. This led to a middle-heavy lineup powered by 3-4-5 hitters Devin Mann, Logan Wyatt, and Josh Stowers, one which lacked much punch outside of those three. On the mound, the team had a surprisingly deep arsenal of arms despite all of the turnover, and the pitching held the Hokies to four runs over the three games, even with starting a true freshman in Game Three, which I unfortunately missed. I don't see Louisville making a deep NCAA Tournament run this year given its youth, but they're well positioned for next year, especially on the mound, and if Tyler Fitzgerald can take the next step as a hitter, they won't be a fun team to play against on either side of the ball.
Individual Notes
Nick Bennett (Louisville Sophomore LHP)
4-0, 1.45 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 35/10 K/BB in 31 IP
Bennett looked excellent in Game Two, allowing one unearned run across eight innings on three hits, one walk, and seven strikeouts. It has all been part of a dominant sophomore season in which he is carrying a 1.45 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a 35/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 31 innings in seven games (four starts). Standing 6'4", he's a big guy, and as a lefty he has a very imposing presence on the mound. Bennett mixed four pitches effectively, tossing a fastball in the 86-90 MPH range while topping out at 91, a cutter/slider in the mid to upper 70's, a slow curveball in the low to mid 70's, and a changeup in the low 80's. He commanded all of these pitches very well, hitting both sides of the plate and leaving Virginia Tech hitters off balance the entire time. He moved back and forth between his two seam and four seem fastball, with the four seamer sitting around 90 and the two seamer sitting more around 85-87 with some serious run. At times, despite its lack of velocity, it looked like that two seamer might have been his toughest pitch to hit, at least for the Hokies. His curve was the better of his two breaking balls, showing serious downer action that just seemed to keep going and going. The lack of velocity might make it a bit easier to hit at higher levels, but he was able to keep it down in the zone the Hokie hitters just couldn't square it up. The cutter/slider was perhaps his most hittable pitch, as it got slurvy at times in the upper 70's and didn't have the sharpest break. Still, it gave hitters a different look and he was able to command it. He also threw a changeup around 81, one which had some dip as it crossed the plate. He used it mostly against right handed hitters, but I can see it developing into an above average pitch in time as he is clearly already comfortable with it. If Bennett can add some velocity next season without sacrificing command, he could be a top 50 pick in the 2019 draft.
Adam Wolf (Louisville Junior LHP)
4-2, 2.36 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 63/17 K/BB in 53.1 IP
I only caught the first two innings, but Wolf pitched well against the Hokies, allowing two runs on nine hits and no walks over six innings and striking out out eight. He is a 6'6" lefty, and his approach to pitching is fairly similar to Bennett's. He throw just a hair faster, sitting in the 88-91 range and touching 92 a couple of times, but doesn't switch between the four seamer and the two seamer like Bennett (or at least didn't while I was watching early on). He adds a curveball and a changeup, and he commands the whole package very well. The curve had softer break than you would want, but the shape is good and it gets good downer action as it approaches the plate. The changeup also had some drop and was probably a step ahead of Bennett's. He is a back-end type starter who could crack the top five rounds due to his command. Aside from one rough start against Florida State, he actually has a 1.59 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP, so outside of that start, he has been a consistent force as one of the ACC's top pitchers in 2018 in his first year starting.
Devin Mann (Louisville Junior 2B)
2 HR, .271/.436/.415, 5 SB, 25/34 K/BB
Mann is a big guy, standing 6'3" with long arms and an athletic build. He went hitless in ten at bats during the series but did walk three times in Game Three, showcasing the patient approach and very good eye he has exhibited all season long. Given his build, you would expect more power, but his swing lacks the kind of whip and bat speed to produce it. Unfortunately, I did not get a good look at him on defense. A team that believes they can help Mann tap his power should take him in the top five rounds.
Others
Josh Stowers (Louisville): Speedy, toolsy outfielder now slashing .276/.435/.440 with excellent 22/31 strikeout to walk ratio, possibly due to lack of protection behind him in lineup. Plus speed helps on both sides of the ball, could grow into 15 HR power as he fills out wiry frame.
Tyler Fitzgerald (Louisville): Sophomore shortstop with respectable .276/.347/.386 slash line, was highly touted in high school but needs to get just a bit more consistent with the bat. Has kept strikeouts down but doesn't walk much either. Erratic at shortstop but tools are there.
Tuesday, April 17, 2018
Sunday, April 1, 2018
Season Preview: NL West
Division Crown Contenders: Dodgers, Diamondbacks
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Giants, Rockies
Unlikely to Contend: Padres
Like the NL Central, the West looks to be a very competitive division, even with the Dodgers looking like clear favorites again as one of baseball's three super teams. Returning essentially the same team from last season, they not only are expected to win the division but make a deep postseason run. Behind them, the Diamondbacks are frontrunners for an NL Wild Card, and the Giants got much better over the offseason. Between the three, there should be meaningful games played in the division right up through the end of the season. Behind them, the Rockies field a competitive pitching staff, but the lack of offense will be, in my opinion, enough to keep them from competing on the same level. Lastly, the Padres are rebuilding and won't make much noise, but as with most rebuilding teams, they have plenty of young players to watch.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Notable Additions: Scott Alexander, Tom Koehler
Notable Losses: Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Tony Watson, Curtis Granderson, Andre Ethier
Summary: Still one of the best teams in baseball with a balanced offense led by a couple of star hitters, a very strong rotation, and a good bullpen led by Kenley Jansen.
The Dodgers are down a couple of names, most notably starter Yu Darvish and reliever Brandon Morrow, but they're back and as good as ever in 2018. The balanced offense is led by Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger, three of the game's better hitters, and also includes Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe, and Joc Pederson. Behind Grandal is arguably the game's best backup catcher, Austin Barnes, who can also play second base. Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez, Chase Utley, and co. give the team a solid bench as well, and Andrew Toles awaits in AAA in case there are more injuries. Also there is top prospect Alex Verdugo, who is talented enough to challenge for the NL Rookie of the Year Award and could give the Dodgers three straight ROY's after Seager and Bellinger. On the mound, it all starts with the game's best, Clayton Kershaw, followed by Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, all above average starting pitchers. If any of them get hurt, top prospect Walker Buehler awaits, and Julio Urias will also be back around June. Not only does this team have the game's best starting pitcher in Clayton Kershaw, it also has arguably the game's best reliever, Kenley Jansen. Behind Jansen, the bullpen took a little big of a hit, but Pedro Baez, Scott Alexander, Josh Fields, Tony Cingrani, and Ross Stripling still make for a solid unit. The roster has both star power and depth, making it as dangerous as any in the game and making them a favorite to return to the World Series from the NL.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Notable Additions: Steven Souza, Brad Boxberger, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson, Fernando Salas, Yoshihisa Hirano
Notable Losses: J.D. Martinez, Brandon Drury, Chris Iannetta, David Hernandez, Fernando Rodney
Summary: A very dangerous team that won't make the Dodgers' division crown hopes too easy, led by Paul Goldschmidt and an underrated rotation
Even with losing J.D. Martinez, the Diamondbacks bring a very strong team that could absolutely challenge the Dodgers, even if they can't match them bat for bat and arm for arm. Paul Goldschmidt is as good a hitter as any to build a lineup around, and Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza, David Peralta, and Alex Avila provide solid support. Avila in particular is an underrated bat, having hit the ball as hard as anybody else last season but getting only average results. Jarrod Dyson's speed will also be very valuable in that large outfield, and they recently locked up Ketel Marte on a long term deal. The rotation is perhaps the team's most underrated weapon, led by a pair of aces in Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke and also including Zack Godley, Taijuan Walker, and Patrick Corbin, three above average starters. There's not a lot of depth behind them though, with top prospects Taylor Clarke and Jon Duplantier as well as Braden Shipley looking like the only options to step in now that they traded away Anthony Banda. Fortunately, Shelby Miller will be back from Tommy John surgery midseason, and that could be huge if someone is hurt or make someone unhappy if everyone is healthy and firing in all cylinders. There are a few new faces in the bullpen, most notably relief ace Brad Boxberger as well as Fernando Salas and Japanese import Yoshihisa Hirano, plus Archie Bradley is very new to relief work as it is. It should be a pretty solid corps, especially if Bradley can repeat his performance from last season and Hirano can transition to the majors well. This is a very dangerous team that would really surprise me if they didn't win a Wild Card or more. It is also important to note that they added a humidor to their home park this year, which will bring offense down.
San Francisco Giants
Notable Additions: Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, Tony Watson, Derek Holland
Notable Losses: Denard Span, Matt Cain, Christian Arroyo, Kyle Crick
Summary: Offense-first team with quite a few big bats, but a thin pitching staff may be its downfall. Still contenders for an NL Wild Card
The Giants are trying to go worst to first in 2018, and because last season's team was so darn unlucky and because of the additions they made this offseason, they will be able to make a huge jump in the win column this year. New additions Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria join Buster Posey and Brandon Belt in the middle of their lineup, with Austin Jackson joining a secondary set of hitters that includes Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik. Together, this is probably the best offense the Giants have put together in a while, and if top prospect Chris Shaw can pull a Cody Bellinger and immediately contribute once he's called up, they could be a dangerous team. However, where this team might struggle is on the mound, especially with Madison Bumgarner out with a fractured hand and Jeff Samardzija set to miss time with a pec injury. Johnny Cueto, Ty Blach, and Chris Stratton would make up the healthy rotation with Bumgarner and Samardzija, which is pretty decent but not all that great as it is, but now Derek Holland and either Andrew Suarez or Tyler Beede are expected to fill in, really making the rotation a weak spot at this point. Reliever Will Smith will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, which is a big hit to the bullpen, where Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, and Tony Watson are expected to lead. Overall, the hitting is definitely ahead of the pitching, something that isn't all that common in San Francisco. They have a shot at contending, but I think a lot has to go right for them to grab a Wild Card and so far it hasn't.
Colorado Rockies
Notable Additions: Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Chris Iannetta
Notable Losses: Greg Holland, Tyler Chatwood, Jonathan Lucroy, Pat Neshek, Mark Reynolds
Summary: Team led by its deep rotation, but lack of offense could keep them from contending for a Wild Card.
Just like last year, the Rockies' strength lies in pitching rather than hitting, which is unusual given Coors Field. Behind sluggers Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, there are really no impact bats, with DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond really just average hitters and Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, and rookie Ryan McMahon all come with questions. Gonzalez has been a great hitter for most of his career, but he struggled last season and can't be counted on to produce at his usual levels. Meanwhile, McMahon will be a fun one to watch after his huge season in the high minors, especially given the wide open path to playing time he has as the starting first baseman. On the mound, the Rockies are much better off, with Jon Gray leading a rotation full of above average starters, including Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Chad Bettis, and Tyler Anderson, plus Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman (currently hurt) in case a spot opens up. Newcomers Wade Davis, Mike Dunn, and Bryan Shaw lead the bullpen, which also includes Jake McGee, Adam Ottavino, and Chris Rusin. They're outside contenders for a Wild Card, and if they want to compete, the offense will have to scrape together just enough runs while the pitching staff holds down opponents as best as they can in Coors Field.
San Diego Padres
Notable Additions: Eric Hosmer, Chase Headley, Freddy Galvis, Tyson Ross, Chris Young
Notable Losses: Jhoulys Chacin, Yangervis Solarte, Erick Aybar, Travis Wood
Summary: Rebuilding team with a pretty decent offense but a thin pitching staff, will have some fun rookies and young players to watch
The Padres are on their way up with one of the strongest farm systems in the game, but they're not quite ready to compete yet and have a ton of young guys who will try to make an impact. They're kind of left out of national baseball media, but some of these guys are quite good. The offense revolves around franchise face Wil Myers and newcomer Eric Hosmer, with Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley also providing veteran bats. Young guys like Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe, Manny Margot, and Carlos Asuaje emerged last season as quality players and will look to continue that in 2018. Unfortunately, the offense did receive a blow when Alex Dickerson sprained his UCL, as he will now have to miss his second straight season. The rotation is thin, led by Clayton Richard, Dinelson Lamet, and Luis Perdomo, though Lamet hurt is elbow and will be out until at least May. Down at the bottom of the rotation, Bryan Mitchell and rookies Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Erlin look to hold it down until Lamet and Colin Rea return from injuries. The bullpen is led by star relief ace Brad Hand, with some decent arms behind him in Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates, and Japanese import Kazuhisa Makita. Having Hand is big, but otherwise, the bullpen is just about as thin as the rotation. This team will be led by its offense but should not be expected to climb much higher than .450.
Additional Wild Card Contenders: Giants, Rockies
Unlikely to Contend: Padres
Like the NL Central, the West looks to be a very competitive division, even with the Dodgers looking like clear favorites again as one of baseball's three super teams. Returning essentially the same team from last season, they not only are expected to win the division but make a deep postseason run. Behind them, the Diamondbacks are frontrunners for an NL Wild Card, and the Giants got much better over the offseason. Between the three, there should be meaningful games played in the division right up through the end of the season. Behind them, the Rockies field a competitive pitching staff, but the lack of offense will be, in my opinion, enough to keep them from competing on the same level. Lastly, the Padres are rebuilding and won't make much noise, but as with most rebuilding teams, they have plenty of young players to watch.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Notable Additions: Scott Alexander, Tom Koehler
Notable Losses: Yu Darvish, Brandon Morrow, Luis Avilan, Tony Watson, Curtis Granderson, Andre Ethier
Summary: Still one of the best teams in baseball with a balanced offense led by a couple of star hitters, a very strong rotation, and a good bullpen led by Kenley Jansen.
The Dodgers are down a couple of names, most notably starter Yu Darvish and reliever Brandon Morrow, but they're back and as good as ever in 2018. The balanced offense is led by Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger, three of the game's better hitters, and also includes Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe, and Joc Pederson. Behind Grandal is arguably the game's best backup catcher, Austin Barnes, who can also play second base. Matt Kemp, Enrique Hernandez, Chase Utley, and co. give the team a solid bench as well, and Andrew Toles awaits in AAA in case there are more injuries. Also there is top prospect Alex Verdugo, who is talented enough to challenge for the NL Rookie of the Year Award and could give the Dodgers three straight ROY's after Seager and Bellinger. On the mound, it all starts with the game's best, Clayton Kershaw, followed by Alex Wood, Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill, and Hyun-Jin Ryu, all above average starting pitchers. If any of them get hurt, top prospect Walker Buehler awaits, and Julio Urias will also be back around June. Not only does this team have the game's best starting pitcher in Clayton Kershaw, it also has arguably the game's best reliever, Kenley Jansen. Behind Jansen, the bullpen took a little big of a hit, but Pedro Baez, Scott Alexander, Josh Fields, Tony Cingrani, and Ross Stripling still make for a solid unit. The roster has both star power and depth, making it as dangerous as any in the game and making them a favorite to return to the World Series from the NL.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Notable Additions: Steven Souza, Brad Boxberger, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson, Fernando Salas, Yoshihisa Hirano
Notable Losses: J.D. Martinez, Brandon Drury, Chris Iannetta, David Hernandez, Fernando Rodney
Summary: A very dangerous team that won't make the Dodgers' division crown hopes too easy, led by Paul Goldschmidt and an underrated rotation
Even with losing J.D. Martinez, the Diamondbacks bring a very strong team that could absolutely challenge the Dodgers, even if they can't match them bat for bat and arm for arm. Paul Goldschmidt is as good a hitter as any to build a lineup around, and Jake Lamb, A.J. Pollock, Steven Souza, David Peralta, and Alex Avila provide solid support. Avila in particular is an underrated bat, having hit the ball as hard as anybody else last season but getting only average results. Jarrod Dyson's speed will also be very valuable in that large outfield, and they recently locked up Ketel Marte on a long term deal. The rotation is perhaps the team's most underrated weapon, led by a pair of aces in Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke and also including Zack Godley, Taijuan Walker, and Patrick Corbin, three above average starters. There's not a lot of depth behind them though, with top prospects Taylor Clarke and Jon Duplantier as well as Braden Shipley looking like the only options to step in now that they traded away Anthony Banda. Fortunately, Shelby Miller will be back from Tommy John surgery midseason, and that could be huge if someone is hurt or make someone unhappy if everyone is healthy and firing in all cylinders. There are a few new faces in the bullpen, most notably relief ace Brad Boxberger as well as Fernando Salas and Japanese import Yoshihisa Hirano, plus Archie Bradley is very new to relief work as it is. It should be a pretty solid corps, especially if Bradley can repeat his performance from last season and Hirano can transition to the majors well. This is a very dangerous team that would really surprise me if they didn't win a Wild Card or more. It is also important to note that they added a humidor to their home park this year, which will bring offense down.
San Francisco Giants
Notable Additions: Andrew McCutchen, Evan Longoria, Austin Jackson, Tony Watson, Derek Holland
Notable Losses: Denard Span, Matt Cain, Christian Arroyo, Kyle Crick
Summary: Offense-first team with quite a few big bats, but a thin pitching staff may be its downfall. Still contenders for an NL Wild Card
The Giants are trying to go worst to first in 2018, and because last season's team was so darn unlucky and because of the additions they made this offseason, they will be able to make a huge jump in the win column this year. New additions Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria join Buster Posey and Brandon Belt in the middle of their lineup, with Austin Jackson joining a secondary set of hitters that includes Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford, and Joe Panik. Together, this is probably the best offense the Giants have put together in a while, and if top prospect Chris Shaw can pull a Cody Bellinger and immediately contribute once he's called up, they could be a dangerous team. However, where this team might struggle is on the mound, especially with Madison Bumgarner out with a fractured hand and Jeff Samardzija set to miss time with a pec injury. Johnny Cueto, Ty Blach, and Chris Stratton would make up the healthy rotation with Bumgarner and Samardzija, which is pretty decent but not all that great as it is, but now Derek Holland and either Andrew Suarez or Tyler Beede are expected to fill in, really making the rotation a weak spot at this point. Reliever Will Smith will miss the season with Tommy John surgery, which is a big hit to the bullpen, where Mark Melancon, Hunter Strickland, Sam Dyson, and Tony Watson are expected to lead. Overall, the hitting is definitely ahead of the pitching, something that isn't all that common in San Francisco. They have a shot at contending, but I think a lot has to go right for them to grab a Wild Card and so far it hasn't.
Colorado Rockies
Notable Additions: Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Chris Iannetta
Notable Losses: Greg Holland, Tyler Chatwood, Jonathan Lucroy, Pat Neshek, Mark Reynolds
Summary: Team led by its deep rotation, but lack of offense could keep them from contending for a Wild Card.
Just like last year, the Rockies' strength lies in pitching rather than hitting, which is unusual given Coors Field. Behind sluggers Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, there are really no impact bats, with DJ LeMahieu and Ian Desmond really just average hitters and Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta, and rookie Ryan McMahon all come with questions. Gonzalez has been a great hitter for most of his career, but he struggled last season and can't be counted on to produce at his usual levels. Meanwhile, McMahon will be a fun one to watch after his huge season in the high minors, especially given the wide open path to playing time he has as the starting first baseman. On the mound, the Rockies are much better off, with Jon Gray leading a rotation full of above average starters, including Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Chad Bettis, and Tyler Anderson, plus Antonio Senzatela and Jeff Hoffman (currently hurt) in case a spot opens up. Newcomers Wade Davis, Mike Dunn, and Bryan Shaw lead the bullpen, which also includes Jake McGee, Adam Ottavino, and Chris Rusin. They're outside contenders for a Wild Card, and if they want to compete, the offense will have to scrape together just enough runs while the pitching staff holds down opponents as best as they can in Coors Field.
San Diego Padres
Notable Additions: Eric Hosmer, Chase Headley, Freddy Galvis, Tyson Ross, Chris Young
Notable Losses: Jhoulys Chacin, Yangervis Solarte, Erick Aybar, Travis Wood
Summary: Rebuilding team with a pretty decent offense but a thin pitching staff, will have some fun rookies and young players to watch
The Padres are on their way up with one of the strongest farm systems in the game, but they're not quite ready to compete yet and have a ton of young guys who will try to make an impact. They're kind of left out of national baseball media, but some of these guys are quite good. The offense revolves around franchise face Wil Myers and newcomer Eric Hosmer, with Freddy Galvis and Chase Headley also providing veteran bats. Young guys like Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe, Manny Margot, and Carlos Asuaje emerged last season as quality players and will look to continue that in 2018. Unfortunately, the offense did receive a blow when Alex Dickerson sprained his UCL, as he will now have to miss his second straight season. The rotation is thin, led by Clayton Richard, Dinelson Lamet, and Luis Perdomo, though Lamet hurt is elbow and will be out until at least May. Down at the bottom of the rotation, Bryan Mitchell and rookies Joey Lucchesi and Robbie Erlin look to hold it down until Lamet and Colin Rea return from injuries. The bullpen is led by star relief ace Brad Hand, with some decent arms behind him in Craig Stammen, Kirby Yates, and Japanese import Kazuhisa Makita. Having Hand is big, but otherwise, the bullpen is just about as thin as the rotation. This team will be led by its offense but should not be expected to climb much higher than .450.
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