The Houston Astros are one of the most complete teams in baseball, which makes sense considering they've reached the World Series in two of the past three seasons, but if they have one hole at the major league level, it's starting pitching depth after the departures of Gerrit Cole, Wade Miley, and Corbin Martin. Conveniently, their farm system stands out for its incredible starting pitching depth, starting with the enigmatic Forrest Whitley and the rookie sensation Jose Urquidy and followed by enough arms that they'll need their own new sentence. In addition to Whitley and Urquidy, guys like Bryan Abreu, Brandon Bielak, Tyler Ivey, Cristian Javier, Rogelio Armenteros, and Brett Conine are knocking on the door to the big leagues, while guys like Luis Garcia, Nivaldo Rodriguez, and Jojanse Torres had breakout years down in A ball.
Even more impressive than their pitching depth is how they've built that depth – many of their best prospects came from the international market and signed for pennies on the dollar, and Javier, Garcia, Rodriguez, and Torres combined to sign for just $50,000. Throw in Urquidy, Abreu, and Armenteros, and that number only rises to $170,000 for eight legitimate pitching prospects, or about slot value for an eighth or ninth round draft prospect.
The story is very different on the hitting side. With Kyle Tucker graduated and Seth Beer in Arizona, there are very few impact prospects at the plate, and that makes breakouts from Abraham Toro and Jeremy Pena perhaps the best thing to happen to the system this year. Unfortunately, Toro and Pena are probably the only position players to significantly outplay their projections so far, and it's a light group overall.
Affiliates: AAA Round Rock Express, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Fayetteville Woodpeckers, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, short season Tri-City ValleyCats, complex level GCL and DSL Astros
Catcher
- Garrett Stubbs (2020 Age: 26-27): Stubbs, who will turn 27 in May, is pretty unremarkable as a prospect, but he does the little things right and with Robinson Chirinos departed via free agency, he has a chance to take over as the backup to Martin Maldonado in 2020. He was an eighth round pick out of USC back in 2015, then hit well in his first full season in 2016 (.304/.391/.469) to set himself up as one of the system's better catching prospects. He hasn't hit all that much since then, and in 2019 he slashed .240/.332/.397 with seven home runs, 12 stolen bases, and a 38/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 63 games at AAA Round Rock, also hitting .200/.282/.286 with a 7/4 strikeout to walk ratio across 19 major league games. He doesn't hit for a ton of impact, but he puts the ball in play regularly and is tough to strike out, which should help him be at least a competent hitter at the major league level. Since he's almost certainly ticketed for a backup role, that's all that's really needed, as his defense is good behind the plate and he'll have no problem handling major league pitching from that end. He also runs pretty well for a catcher, which certainly doesn't hurt. His brother, C.J., is also a catcher and was the Astros' tenth round pick in 2019 and hit .249/.340/.459 in his successful pro debut.
- Korey Lee (2020 Age: 21-22): The Astros surprised some people by drafting Lee at the end of the first round in 2019, as many projected the Cal catcher to go in the back half of the top 100 picks or perhaps even later. He hit well in his pro debut, slashing .268/.359/.371 with three home runs and a 49/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 64 games at short season Tri-City. He did that after putting up a big breakout in his junior season at Cal, in which he began to tap into his power much more consistently while maintaining good control of the strike zone. His lack of a track record means he comes with more risk than the typical first round college selection, though if Lee can continue on his upward trajectory, he could be a legitimate starting catcher with the pop to hit 20-25 home runs annually. Defensively, he has a cannon arm and is coming along with his glovework, but he needs more work there.
- Keep an eye on: Lorenzo Quintana, Michael Papierski, C.J. Stubbs, Nathan Perry
Corner Infield
- Abraham Toro (2020 Age: 23): Given his lack of real defensive value, Toro's bat has been fringy for a few years now, until he broke out in 2019 by slashing .324/.411/.527 with 17 home runs and an 82/58 strikeout to walk ratio over 114 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, then hit .218/.303/.385 with two home runs and a 19/9 strikeout to walk ratio in 25 major league games. He generates a lot of hard contact from his slightly uppercut swing, and his patient approach at the plate enables him to find his pitches and drive them. Together, that's an outlook of 15-25 home runs per season and solid on-base percentages, which should be enough to profile wherever he ends up defensively. However, he's blocked in Houston by Alex Bregman at third base, by Yuli Gurriel at first base, and by Yordan Alvarez at DH. He's probably best off being traded somewhere he can have a path to starting, but even in Houston he should be a valuable role player who can pick up starts at multiple positions spelling the regular starters.
- J.J. Matijevic (2020 Age: 24): The Astros took Matijevic in the second competitive balance round out of Arizona in 2017, though because he's a borderline defensive liability, all of the pressure is on his bat. He slashed .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs in his first full season in 2018, boosting his stock, but his rough 2019 pushed his stock in the other direction. A second failed non-PED drug test knocked him out for a month and a half, and when he was on the field, his bat played closer to average, as he slashed .251/.319/.441 with eleven home runs and a 101/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 78 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi. He's got some raw power from the left side, though his hit tool has been inconsistent and he hasn't quite gotten to it as consistently as perhaps he'd like. He's also a better hitter against right handed pitching, which combined with his lack of defensive value, means he might be ticketed to more of a platoon/bench role in the majors. He has experience in both the outfield and first base.
- Jake Adams (2020 Age: 24): Adams led all of Division I with 29 home runs for Iowa in 2017, but he lasted until the sixth round because power was just about all he offered. Fortunately, that power has played up, and he slashed .248/.311/.446 with 22 home runs and a 117/37 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 games at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. While he still has swing and miss in his game, the strikeouts haven't been as big of an issue as perhaps they could have been, though he'll probably have to continue to refine his approach a bit in order to make it to the majors. If he does, he could be a nice platoon option with Matijevic as a right handed hitter.
- Keep an eye on: Taylor Jones, Colton Shaver, Joe Perez, Raider Uceta
Middle Infield
- Jeremy Pena (2020 Age: 22): The Astros drafted Pena in the third round in 2018 out of the University of Maine for his glove, hoping that he could just manage to hit enough to work his way up as a utility infielder. However, he ended up hitting for much more impact than originally expected, and in 2019 he slashed .303/.385/.440 with seven home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a 90/47 strikeout to walk ratio over 109 games at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he's begun to tap into it more with a more aggressive swing without hurting his plate discipline. He's found the barrel consistently and still hit .317 in High A, putting him ahead of schedule considering he didn't turn 22 until after the season. His real value is still in his defense, as he's very good at shortstop and will be able to handle the position every day in the majors if necessary. If he can repeat the offensive success he had in 2019 a couple of times, he could become the heir to Carlos Correa at shortstop in Houston, albeit without as much bat. If not, he still profiles well as a utility type.
- Freudis Nova (2020 Age: 20): Nova skipped over short season ball entirely in 2019, going straight from the Gulf Coast League up to Class A Quad Cities and slashing .259/.301/.369 with three home runs, ten stolen bases, and a 68/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 75 games. He's much more about projection than current ability, though his ability to hold his own against older pitchers in the Midwest League was a nice sign for his future development. He's begun to tap some gap power, which should grow into over the fence power as he matures, and he makes consistent contact. Defensively, he's very good at shortstop and could be a plus defender at third base if he has to move there, which certainly buys the bat time to develop. He'll play all of 2020 at 20 years old with the chance to break out in High A.
- Grae Kessinger (2020 Age: 22): Kessinger was a really interesting second round pick out of Ole Miss in 2019 because almost the entirety of his value came from 30 game stretch in SEC play where he slashed .405/.472/.556 against college baseball's toughest competition. After being drafted, he slashed .232/.333/.308 with a pair of home runs, nine stolen bases, and a 36/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 62 games at short season Tri-City and Class A Quad Cities. There's no question about Kessinger's hit tool, as he has proven he can control the strike zone and make quality contact against any level of advanced pitching, but he doesn't provide much else as of yet. There's not much power to speak of beyond some doubles and triples power, he doesn't run particularly well, and he might be a better fit for second base than for shortstop. If he can add a little pop, he has a shot at landing a starting second base job down the line, though otherwise he profiles pretty straightforwardly as a utility infielder.
- Luis Santana (2020 Age: 20-21): 2019 was a bit of a step back for Santana after he slashed .325/.430/.481 in 2017 and .348/.446/.471 in 2018, though he's still young and doesn't turn 21 until July. 2019 was also Santana's first year in the Astros organization after being acquired in the J.D. Davis trade, and he slashed .257/.337/.329 with two home runs and a 33/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 70 games between short season Tri-City and AA Corpus Christi. It was a bit of a weird season for him, as he actually started the season up at AA, skipping multiple levels in the process, before being sent all the way back down to short season ball after slashing .228/.333/.263 in 18 games. He's just 5'8", but he plays hard and gets the most out of what he has, employing great plate discipline and feel for the barrel which makes what little power he has play up. I was obviously a bit more confident in him before his so-so 2019, but I still like him as a prospect with some upside and the ability to be a future second baseman, perhaps even a starter if he can get back on track. The Astros know a thing or two about undersized second basemen.
- Keep an eye on: Alex De Goti
Outfield
- Ronnie Dawson (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros have a deep group of fringy outfielders in the upper minors between Dawson, Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, and Stephen Wrenn, though Dawson is the most interesting and he'll get the writeup. Drafted in the second round out of Ohio State in 2016, he's struggled more and more with strikeouts as he's moved through the minors and he slashed .207/.313/.385 with 17 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and a 152/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock in 2019. He has good solid power in his left handed swing that has produced 14, 16, and 17 home runs over the last three seasons and more than 20 doubles in each, though he also struck out 110, 130, and 152 times, respectively. That makes it hard to project him getting regular playing time in the big leagues, though with his combination of power and speed, he might stick out just a hair above the other guys at his level, at least for now.
- Cal Stevenson (2020 Age: 23): Stevenson was a tenth round pick out of Arizona by the Blue Jays in 2018, then hit a sensational .369/.511/.523 with 21 stolen bases in his pro debut. He skipped Class A entirely and was traded to the Astros as part of the mid-season Derek Fisher/Aaron Sanchez deal, slashing .288/.388/.384 with five home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 65/69 strikeout to walk ratio over 113 games between the two High A affiliates. He manages the strike zone exceptionally well, perhaps better than any hitter in this system, and that enables him to be an on-base machine day in and day out. He lacks impact at the plate, which is why is on-base skills are so critical, but his feel for the strike zone helps him find the barrel more often than not and hit for high averages. Stevenson is also a strong defender in center field and can steal a base, giving him a fourth outfielder projection.
- Jordan Brewer (2020 Age: 22-23): Brewer was the Astros' third round pick out of Michigan in 2019, though he slashed just .130/.161/.185 with a home run and a 6/2 strikeout to walk ratio across 16 games in his pro debut after a long run to the College World Series Championship against Vanderbilt. Though he performed well in the Big 10 and will turn 23 in August, Brewer is actually a bit more about projection than current ability, as he's raw around most of his game. He shows some power and lots of speed, giving him the chance to be an impact player if everything develops right. He does need to work on his plate discipline and finding the barrel against pro pitching, which he had a tough time doing in his brief pro debut, and he could use some refinements to better deploy his speed in the outfield and stick as a center fielder. That's the upside of a 15-20 homer bat with speed and defense, but it also comes with more risk than the typical college performer.
- Colin Barber (2020 Age: 19): Barber was drafted in the fourth round, right after Brewer, out of a Chico, California high school in 2019, then proceeded to hit .263/.387/.394 with two home runs and a 29/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 28 games in the complex level Gulf Coast League. As a high school bat, he's understandably raw, and his pro debut was more about learning to navigate pro pitching than it was about immediately hitting for impact. While he did have his share of strikeouts, he also drew his fair share of walks and got on base at a .387 clip, so we can call it a success in that regard. The next step for Barber, who will be just 19 for all of 2020, will be to start tapping the power in his quick left handed swing, which he certainly has the ability to do. It will take some time though and I wouldn't expect him to be knocking on the door to the majors any time soon.
- Keep an eye on: Chas McCormick, Drew Ferguson, Ross Adolph, Alex McKenna, Kenedy Corona, Rainier Rivas
Starting Pitching
- Forrest Whitley (2020 Age: 22): Whitley, a first round pick out of Alamo Heights High School in San Antonio in 2016, has been the most enigmatic prospect in the system ever since. His first full season in 2017 went about as well as possible, as he posted a 2.83 ERA and a 143/34 strikeout to walk ratio while reaching AA at just 19 years old, but his 2018 and 2019 seasons saw far from the same success. He missed most of 2018 for a combination of a drug suspension and nagging oblique problems, then pitched poorly in 2019 while missing time with shoulder problems. Overall, he had a 7.99 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP, and an 86/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings between the complex level Gulf Coast League, High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. With all those strikeouts, the stuff clearly wasn't the problem, but his previously solid-average command faded to well below average as he struggled to harness his explosive stuff. At his best, he sits comfortably in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds not one but two of the best breaking balls in the system in a curve and a slider, and his changeup has improved to the point where it too is a true out pitch. That all comes from a 6'7" frame that makes it tough to hit, so if he can get back to throwing strikes like he's capable of, he has true ace upside. The shoulder and command problems are certainly worrisome, though, and unfortunately there's still the chance he busts without ever becoming more than a back-end starter. I certainly would not give up on him yet though, and a shallow Houston rotation gives him every chance to make the big league club out of spring training if he starts throwing strikes again.
- Jose Urquidy (2020 Age: 24-25): We've all seen enough of Jose Urquidy to know exactly who he is, but he's technically still a prospect. In 2019, he burst onto the scene with a 4.46 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and a 134/21 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock, and he filled in effectively in the Houston rotation with a 3.95 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and a 40/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 innings – plus ten innings of one run ball and twelve strikeouts to two walks in the playoffs, including a dominant World Series Game Four win in Washington. He only sits in the low 90's with his fastball and adds a decent curveball, but his changeup made him tough to square up as he placed it wherever he wanted it and sent batters flailing. That command also helps the rest of his stuff play up, and even with Lance McCullers returning and a bevy of prospects fighting for those last two spots in the rotation, Urquidy has the inside track and should stick as an Anibal Sanchez-type #4 starter.
- Bryan Abreu (2020 Age: 23): Abreu went from hard-throwing nobody in 2017 to legitimate impact prospect in 2018 by posting a 1.49 ERA and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio, then took another step forward by handling AA in 2019. Overall, he had a 4.83 ERA, a 1.35 WHIP, and a 126/54 strikeout to walk ratio over 91.1 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi, and he also had a successful MLB debut by posting a 1.04 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, and a 13/3 strikeout to walk ratio over 8.2 innings for the Astros, which helped him crack the team's ALCS roster. He sits in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and flashes a slider that can be sharp at times, but his real bread and butter is a power, downer curveball that's just about impossible to square up. His command comes and goes and his changeup needs work, but with the chance to crack the Houston rotation out of spring training, you can bet he'll be focusing hard on those two things over the offseason and in spring training. If he can improve one of the two, he can probably be a good starter, and if not, he still profiles well in the bullpen at present with that fastball/curveball combination.
- Brandon Bielak (2020 Age: 24): Bielak was an eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, but he held a 1.91 ERA and a 173/44 strikeout to walk ratio between his pro debut and his first full season, putting himself firmly on the prospect map. He then effectively tackled the upper levels in 2019, posting a 4.22 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a 119/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 121.2 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Round Rock. He has no clear strengths or weaknesses, instead attacking hitters with a low 90's fastball and three good secondary pitches, commanding it all well but not to the point where you could call him a command artist. Even though he doesn't have Abreu's curveball or Urquidy's changeup and command, his lack of exploitable weaknesses means it all adds up to a well-rounded product that should fit well in the back half of the rotation in the near future if he can break through.
- Cristian Javier (2020 Age: 23): Nobody knew who Javier was when he signed for just $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2015, when he was already 18 years old, but they certainly do now after he's dominated literally everywhere he's gone with a career 2.22 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 33.8% strikeout rate over nearly 400 innings. In 2019, Javier posted a 1.74 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 170/59 strikeout to walk ratio over 113.2 innings at High A Fayetteville, AA Corpus Christi, and AAA Round Rock. Watching him pitch, nothing really stands out as remarkable, but hitters just can't seem to square him up. His fastball sits around 90 and can bump a bit higher, but its high spin rate makes it seem almost "invisible" leading to tons of swings and misses and pop outs. He mixes in a pair of good breaking balls in a slider and a curveball, and while his changeup isn't plus, it's coming along as well. His command comes and goes, but he's done a good enough job holding down the strike zone to where it hasn't been an issue yet. Overall, it's kind of a boom/bust profile at the major league level, but it will be really interesting to see if Javier can make that final leap into the big league rotation or if he ends up getting knocked to the bullpen, where his invisible fastball could be deadly.
- Tyler Ivey (2020 Age: 23-24): Due to the depth of starting pitching at the top of this system, Ivey is most likely ticketed for the bullpen, but he was so dominant in a small sample in 2019 that it's hard to rule him out just yet. His season got off to a bit of a slow start, as he was suspended briefly in May for using a foreign substance on his glove, then he missed a month and a half with elbow problems, but he returned in July and finished with a 1.38 ERA, a 0.92 WHIP, and a 68/20 strikeout to walk ratio over 52 innings at AA Corpus Christi with some rehab work in the complex level Gulf Coast League and at High A Fayetteville. He's a semi-hometown player who grew up on the east side of the DFW Metroplex, and he attended Texas A&M and Grayson Community College before being drafted in the third round in 2017. He has a bit of a funky delivery, but he's athletic enough to still throw strikes with his low to mid 90's fastball, big curveball, slider, and changeup, and he's seldom been hit hard as a pro. The injury in 2019 probably puts him a bit behind some of the other arms on this list, but a healthy and successful 2020 could put him into the thick of the rotation conversation late in the season should somebody falter or get hurt.
- Luis Garcia (2020 Age: 23): Garcia didn't sign until he was 20 years old in 2017, but he's taken his $10,000 signing bonus and hit the ground running. After posting a 2.00 ERA and a 98/41 strikeout to walk ratio in 2018, he put up a 2.98 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a 168/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 108.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville in 2019, adding a pair of dominant starts in the Carolina League playoffs to push him to 189 strikeouts on the season. He now sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full set of secondary pitches, highlighted by a swing and miss changeup, though his command is fairly inconsistent. Given all the progress he made in 2019 stuff-wise, 2020 will be the year to focus on that command, and his current trajectory points to a spot somewhere in the back of the Houston rotation in 2021. If his command stalls, he could still profile in the bullpen by focusing on one of his breaking balls to play off his velocity.
- Peter Solomon (2020 Age: 23): Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017, seven rounds before his teammate Brandon Bielak, and like Bielak he had a strong first full season in the Houston organization with a 2.32 ERA and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio. However, after allowing two runs on seven hits and four walks with 14 strikeouts in his first 7.2 innings at High A Fayetteville in 2019, he went down with Tommy John surgery and missed the rest of the season. Solomon is a 6'4" righty with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of good breaking balls, and while his command held him back in college, he improved that significantly in 2018 and was filling up the strike zone with average command. The stuff is good enough for him to be an impact starter, and maintaining the gains he made with his command will be absolutely imperative to making that projection become a reality. Everybody responds differently to surgery, but if he loses the strike zone again like he did in college, he probably profiles in the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Rogelio Armenteros, Brett Conine, Chad Donato, Cody Deason, Jairo Solis, Hunter Brown, Jayson Schroeder
Relief Pitching
- Enoli Paredes (2020 Age: 24): Paredes has moved quietly through this system, but it's hard not to notice him after he posted a 2.78 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 128/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 94 innings at High A Fayetteville and AA Corpus Christi in 2019. He's a skinny 5'11" right hander with a quick arm, one that produces low to mid 90's fastballs as a starter, and it's easy to see him sitting around 95-98 when he eventually becomes a full time reliever. He also adds a good slider that looks like a plus pitch at times, and out of the bullpen it could be consistently plus. His command is so-so, and I'm surprised the Astros have left him in the rotation for this long, but he has high upside as a very valuable reliever.
- Jojanse Torres (2020 Age: 24-25): The Astros are known for growing prospects out of nowhere, something Torres completely embodies as an international signee who didn't pitch professionally until he was almost 23 years old. He skipped a couple levels and spent 2019 in A ball, dominating to the tune of a 1.71 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 107/46 strikeout to walk ratio over 94.2 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville. He sits easily in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a good slider, which mid level hitters had no chance of hitting. Like many other Astros prospects, his command is still a work in progress, and that (combined with the fact that he'll be 25 in August) likely makes him a reliever, especially in this system deep in pitching. If moved to the 'pen, he could be up to 100 MPH with his fastball and sharpen that slider without worrying so much about command, and he could rocket up to the big leagues.
- Nivaldo Rodriguez (2020 Age: 23): Rodriguez, like pretty much every other arm in this system, came from absolutely nowhere, but his breakout 2019 gives the Astros yet another arm to figure into their long term pitching picture. In 2019, he posted a 2.40 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 114/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 105 innings at Class A Quad Cities and High A Fayetteville, though unlike many of the other arms in this system, he doesn't throw all that hard and sits in the low 90's with his fastball. He's derived his success from his excellent curveball, one that's right behind Bryan Abreu's as one of the best in the system, and that pitch alone gives him the floor of a middle reliever. A starter for most of 2019, the Astros shifted him to the bullpen in August, though I'm not sure if that was a permanent move or just for load management. Either way, his combination of low velocity and decent command means it'll be tough to remain a starter, especially in this system, and he'll probably be better off relying on that curveball out of the bullpen.
- Keep an eye on: Cionel Perez, Riley Ferrell, Willy Collado, Shawn Dubin, R.J. Freure, Jose Alberto Rivera
Showing posts with label Peter Solomon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peter Solomon. Show all posts
Friday, December 27, 2019
Saturday, February 9, 2019
Reviewing the Houston Astros Farm System
The Astros' player development has been something else, having produced a homegrown, World Series-winning core of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Alex Bregman, Dallas Keuchel, and Lance McCullers. Even with all of those graduations, they still have a lot of depth down on the farm, led by two super prospects in Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley. It's a pitching heavy system that includes lots of potential impact arms, though guys like Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Seth Beer ensure that the group of hitters is nothing to overlook.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
Affiliates: AAA Fresno Grizzlies*, AA Corpus Christi Hooks, High A Buies Creek Astros*, Class A Quad Cities River Bandits, Short Season Tri-City ValleyCats, rookie level GCL and DSL Astros
*AAA affiliate will move from Fresno, CA to Round Rock, TX and High A affiliate will move from Buies Creek, NC to Fayetteville, NC in 2019
The Headliners: OF Kyle Tucker and RHP Forrest Whitley
The Astros carry arguably the best hitter/pitcher prospect combination in the minors (Padres/Rays/White Sox have strong cases as well), and both of these guys were first round picks out of high school. 22 year old Kyle Tucker was selected fifth overall out of a Tampa high school in 2015, gradually working his way up through the minors then slashing .332/.400/.590 with 24 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and an 84/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 games at AAA Fresno, a hitter-friendly context. In 28 major league games, he then slashed .141/.236/.203 with a 13/6 strikeout to walk ratio, but the immense upside remains. Tucker is 6'4" and has added plenty of strength to his lanky frame over the years, giving him plus power to go with good enough plate discipline and barrel feel to get to that power regularly. While he likely won't post .400 on-base percentages in the majors like he did in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, he should easily push and exceed .350 while adding 20-30 home runs per season. Unlike most 6'4" sluggers, Tucker isn't a liability on defense, showing the ability to play decent defense in right field with his strong arm and decent speed. He'll get more of an extended crack at the majors in 2019 and he certainly improve that slash line. 21 year old Forrest Whitley was the 17th overall pick out of a San Antonio high school in 2016, and a tremendous 2017 (2.83 ERA, 143/34 K/BB in 92.1 IP) put him firmly among the best pitching prospects in the game. However, he missed a big chunk of 2018 after being hit with a 50 game drug suspension (Major League Baseball did not clarify whether it was a PED or a drug of abuse) as well as an oblique injury, posting a 3.76 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a 34/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 26.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi. When he is healthy and on the mound, the 6'7" righty has some of the best pure stuff in the minors, showing a mid 90's fastball with movement, two great breaking balls in a curveball and a slider, and an advanced changeup to round out a full arsenal. While his command isn't pinpoint, it's good enough to where he's hurting himself with walks, and he should be major league ready at some point in 2019. He has true ace upside, so long as he returns from a lost 2018 to be the same pitcher he was in 2017.
Upper Minors Arms: RHP Josh James, LHP Cionel Perez, LHP Framber Valdez, RHP Rogelio Armenteros, RHP Corbin Martin, RHP Brandon Bielak, and LHP Kit Scheetz
Aside from Forrest Whitley, the Astros have plenty of pitching prospects right on the cusp of being major league ready, so even with Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton departing via free agency and Lance McCullers going down with Tommy John surgery, they will have plenty of internal options to shuffle in behind Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Wade Miley. 25 year old Josh James might be the most interesting in the group, coming off a 2018 where he posted a 3.23 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 171/49 strikeout to walk ratio over 114.1 innings at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno, followed by a successful major league stint with a 2.35 ERA and a 29/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 23 innings. James, a former 34th rounder out of Western Oklahoma State, wasn't really much of a prospect until his roommate complained about his snoring, which led to a diagnosis and treatment for sleep apnea in 2017 and a huge velocity jump in 2018. Now, James throws in the mid to upper 90's and adds a solid slider and changeup, missing tons of bats and limiting the walks to a reasonable rate. He'll never be a control artist, but if he stays healthy and can at least have a general idea where his pitches are going in the majors, he has the chance to be a solid mid-rotation starter in the very near future. 22 year old Cionel Perez, a product of Cuba, also had an upper minors breakout this year with a 2.08 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and an 89/28 strikeout to walk ratio over 73.2 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, also adding a 3.97 ERA and a 12/7 strikeout to walk ratio over 11.1 major league innings. Perez is a small, skinny lefty at 5'11", but he sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches. With his solid command, the only question with him right now is durability given his small frame, as he otherwise has what it takes to be a major league starter. If he stays healthy, he's a mid-rotation starter in the near future, but a couple of injuries could push him to the bullpen given the Astros' depth on the mound. 25 year old Framber Valdez, like Josh James, was another unheralded signing who has made good, posting a 4.11 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a 129/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 103 innings at Corpus Christi and Fresno, followed by a 2.19 ERA and a 34/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 37 major league innings. Valdez, like Perez, is a 5'11" lefty, and he brings a low to mid 90's fastball and a big dropping curveball, the two pitches alone giving him enough stuff to strike out upper minors hitters in bunches. His control has come and gone, making him look like a potential #3 starter when it's working or like a future reliever when it isn't. Given Houston's depth and Valdez's size and durability concerns, he is probably more likely than James or Perez to end up in the bullpen. 24 year old Rogelio Armenteros had one of the best statistical seasons in the minors in 2017 (10-4, 2.04 ERA, 146/38 K/BB in AA/AAA), then followed it up with a successful run through the AAA Pacific Coast League by posting a 3.74 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 134/48 strikeout to walk ratio over 118 innings in a hitter-friendly context in Fresno. Armenteros doesn't have the electric stuff of the arms above him on this list, but the 6'1" righty mixes and commands his deep arsenal very well to keep hitters off balance, using his very good changeup as his go-to. His ceiling is really only that of a #4 starter, but he may have staying power due to his knowledge of pitching and ability to execute. 23 year old Corbin Martin is a Houston native and a Texas A&M alum, giving the system a little bit of hometown flair, and he posted a 2.51 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 122/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 122 innings at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. The 2017 second round pick (56th overall) has been a fast mover, using his low to mid 90's fastball and deep, effective arsenal to fuel his success. He has the classic profile of a mid-rotation starter and, barring injury, carries very little risk due to his all-around skill set. He's pretty much major league ready at this point, but the Astros have no need to rush him with all of the talent ahead of him. 22 year old Brandon Bielak was an unheralded eleventh round pick out of Notre Dame in 2017 (in fact the second Notre Dame pitcher taken by the Astros that year after fourth rounder Peter Solomon), but a 1.91 ERA over his first season and a half in pro ball has changed that. In 2018, he posted a 2.23 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 131/39 strikeout to walk ratio over 117 innings at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using a similar skill set to Martin. He sits in the low 90's and adds a full arsenal of effective secondary pitches, and while his command is probably a step below Martin's, he can hit his spots effectively. While Martin has #3 starter projection, Bielak looks like a solid #4 guy if he can continue missing bats at the higher levels. Lastly, 24 year old Kit Scheetz was as unheralded as they come, going un-drafted as a redshirt senior out of Virginia Tech and signing with the Astros as a free agent. Showing mediocre, inconsistent stuff in college, he has gotten much more consistent in pro ball and now sits in the upper 80's while adding a good curveball, the deception in his left handed delivery and improved command making everything play up. His ceiling is likely as a middle or long reliever, but I write him up here because of the success story after being un-drafted as well as the personal connection from having watched him pitch for three years in college.
Low and Mid Minors Arms: RHP J.B. Bukauskas, RHP Peter Solomon, RHP Tyler Ivey, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Bryan Abreu, and RHP Jayson Schroeder
Down lower in the minors, the Astros are still very deep in arms, though naturally there is a lot more risk down there. 22 year old J.B. Bukauskas made it look easy when he shut out my high school team in 2014, and things have only gone up from there. A first round pick (15th overall) out of UNC in 2017, he split 2018 between five different levels and posted a 2.14 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a 71/24 strikeout to walk ratio over 59 innings, most of which came at Class A Quad Cities and High A Buies Creek (though he also saw time in complex ball, short season ball, and at AA Corpus Christi). It was actually a car accident that limited his time on the mound in 2018, but Bukauskas is back and healthy now, pumping mid 90's fastballs and his signature power slider for high numbers of strikeouts. The stuff gives him high upside, and if he can stick as a starter, he could be an a good one in Houston. However, he's only six feet tall and has some effort in his delivery, which when combined with his inconsistent command, gives him considerable relief risk. The Astros will continue to develop him as a starter, but even if he's forced to the bullpen, his fastball/slider combination could make him a closer. 22 year old Peter Solomon was the Astros' fourth round pick in the same 2017 draft out of Notre Dame, and his very successful first full season saw him post a 2.32 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 114/32 strikeout to walk ratio over 100.2 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek, losing no effectiveness with the promotion to High A. He's a lanky 6'4" right hander with a low to mid 90's fastball and a pair of solid breaking balls, but most importantly, he has significantly improved his command over the past few seasons. When I saw him pitch in 2016 as a sophomore at Notre Dame, he was walking nearly a batter per inning, but now he has at least some semblance of knowing where the strike zone is and that has allowed his very good stuff to play up. He has mid-rotation upside if he can maintain the gains he has made with his command. 22 year old Tyler Ivey is yet another member of that 2017 draft class, a third rounder (91st overall) out of a Texas junior college. Like Bukauskas, Solomon, Martin, and Bielak (Martin and Bielak in the high minors section), he had a breakout 2018 and posted a 2.97 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 135/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 112 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. While Bukauskas and Solomon are more about the stuff, Ivey is more similar to Martin and Bielak in that he is a pitchability guy with low 90's fastball velocity and pretty good control. At 6'4", he could hit the mid 90's a little more consistently down the road, but his future as it stands now paints him as a potential #4 starter, one who can eat innings and keep his ERA hovering around 4.00. Moving to a couple of international signings, 21 year old Cristian Javier continued his long stretch of dominance in the minors with a 2.70 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a 146/50 strikeout to walk ratio over 110 innings at Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018, using his pair of good breaking balls to make his deceptive 90 MPH fastball play up. While his command could still use a bit of polish, the breaking balls were enough to consistently miss bats in A ball and should play up into AA as well, and adding either a little bit of velocity or improving his command a bit more could make him a #4 starter. As is, he still could profile as an effective reliever. 21 year old Bryan Abreu has moved very slowly and has not spent much time on the mound in his pro career, but his breakout in 2018 was electric. The 6'1" righty posted a 1.49 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a 90/23 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings at short season Tri-City and Quad Cities, using a low 90's fastball, a hammer curveball, and a good slider to make low minors hitters look silly at the plate. He needs to prove his durability and improve his command, but the ceiling is very high for Abreu and his 2019 should be watched very closely. Lastly, 19 year old Jayson Schroeder was just a second round pick (66th overall) in 2018 out of a Seattle area high school, coming out strong in a short complex level stint by posting a 1.50 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and an 18/9 strikeout to walk ratio over 18 innings. He's a projectable 6'2" righty with a low 90's fastball and a full arsenal highlighted by a very good curveball, and his decent present command gives him a good combination of floor and ceiling, at least as far as high school pitchers go. Schroeder has mid-rotation upside, but barring injuries, I think the risk is fairly low compared to most pitchers in his demographic and he has less bust risk than you'd expect.
High Minors Hitters: OF Yordan Alvarez, C Garrett Stubbs, OF Myles Straw, OF Ronnie Dawson, 3B Abraham Toro, and 3B Josh Rojas
The Astros aren't as deep when it comes to hitters as they are with pitchers, especially after Kyle Tucker and 21 year old Yordan Alvarez up a the top of the system. Alvarez has done nothing but mash since being signed out of Cuba in 2016, and in 2018 he slashed .293/.369/.534 with 20 home runs and a 92/42 strikeout to walk ratio over 88 games at AA Corpus Christi and AAA Fresno. The fact that he was much better at Corpus Christi (.325/.389/.615) than at hitter-friendly Fresno (.259/.349/.452) means that he'll likely need some more AAA seasoning in 2019, but he's a legitimate impact prospect. Alvarez shows both power and on-base ability, giving him the chance to be an impact hitter in Astros lineups in the near future. He doesn't bring much to the table defensively but with his bat, that won't matter and the Astros will be happy to just stick him in left field and let him hit. 25 year old Garrett Stubbs gives Houston an actual catching prospect, one who slashed .310/.382/.455 with four home runs and a 53/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 84 games at Fresno in 2018. He's a very good defensive catcher whose defense has carried him all the way up to the top of the minors, and his advanced approach at the plate and propensity for making contact make him a very interesting prospect. However, with very little power to speak of, Stubbs will face an uphill climb when it comes to ultimately winning a major league starting job, whether that's in Houston or elsewhere. 24 year old Myles Straw slashed .291/.381/.353 with one home run, 70 stolen bases, and a 102/73 strikeout to walk ratio over 131 games at Fresno in 2018, then slashed .333/.400/.667 with a home run and a pair of stolen bases in a nine game MLB debut. Despite homering in his second major league start, Straw has almost no power to speak of and instead makes his living as a slap hitter with blazing speed. He's a very good defender in center field that can steal a base off of any catcher he wants, and while he smartly draws plenty of walks, I'm not sure he does enough at the plate to warrant a starting job. He hits plenty of singles and draws plenty of walks, but home runs aside, he still doesn't hit many doubles or triples. He would make a perfect fourth outfielder/defensive replacement/pinch runner extraordinaire, but finding a starting role will be difficult. 23 year old Ronnie Dawson, a former fan favorite at Ohio State, slashed .258/.333/.428 with 16 home runs, 35 stolen bases, and a 130/45 strikeout to walk ratio over 119 games at High A Buies Creek and Corpus Christi in 2018. He has the power/speed combination that scouts love, but he needs to cut down his strikeouts if he ever wants to be a major league starter. He has fourth outfielder projection right now but could change that by improving his approach at the plate in 2019. 22 year old Abraham Toro slashed .247/.345/.435 with 16 home runs and a 108/62 strikeout to walk ratio over 133 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, showing just enough power to keep his prospect status up in this deep system. He's a fairly average hitter across the board, and his strong arm helps him provide value on defense at third base. Overall, he looks more like a bench bat than a starter, but you never know. Lastly, 24 year old Josh Rojas is a 26th round pick (out of Hawaii in 2017) made good, one who didn't play his first professional game until the day before his 23rd birthday and who has moved quickly through the minors. In 2018, he slashed .263/.351/.408 with eight home runs, 38 stolen bases, and an 89/68 strikeout to walk ratio over 130 games at Buies Creek and Corpus Christi, using his speed and advanced bat to earn himself a utility infielder projection.
Low Minors Hitters: OF Seth Beer, OF J.J. Matijevic, OF Corey Julks, OF Alex McKenna, 2B Luis Santana, SS Jeremy Pena, and SS Freudis Nova
As with the upper minors, the Astros are not very deep when it comes to potential impact hitters, though there may be a little bit more hope here (Kyle Tucker aside). 22 year old Seth Beer straight up mashed for three years at Clemson (56 HR, .321/.489/.648, 98/180 K/BB in 188 games), but a poor track record with wood bats on the U.S. Collegiate National Team led many scouts to think he might just be a "mistake hitter" who can crush middle-middle fastballs but might not be able to handle better pitching. However, after being taken in the first round (28th overall) in 2018, he completely reversed the negatives and slashed .304/.389/.496 with 12 home runs and a 49/25 strikeout to walk ratio over 67 games between short season Tri-City, Class A Quad Cities, and High A Buies Creek. If the 2018 numbers hold true and he is in fact able to translate his college hitting ability to professional baseball, then he has a chance at plus power and high on-base percentages resulting from great plate discipline in the majors, making him a true middle of the order hitter. He provides no value on defense as a very mediocre left fielder who may even have to move to first base, but if the bat is for real, then that won't matter. How he adjusts to higher level pitching in 2019 will tell the Astros whether they have a future star or just a nice bat. 23 year old J.J. Matijevic had a nice first full season after being drafted in the competitive balance round (75th overall) out of Arizona in 2017, slashing .277/.350/.538 with 22 home runs, 13 stolen bases, and a 113/44 strikeout to walk ratio over 101 games at Quad Cities and Buies Creek. Like Beer, Matijevic is another guy whose bat will carry him, but he's not quite as extreme. Matijevic is nothing special in the outfield but not a butcher like Beer, just like his bat is good but not quite as (potentially) elite as Beer's. He has power and the ability to get on base, and while neither of those skills could really be construed as "plus," he might just be able to hit his way into regular starting lineups down the road. If not, he'll make a very good fourth outfielder. 22 year old Corey Julks, a Houston area native and a University of Houston alum, surprised some with a strong season in A ball, slashing .270/.351/.418 with ten home runs, 30 stolen bases, and a 108/55 strikeout to walk ratio over 125 games between Quad Cities and Buies Creek in 2018. He's a better defender and a better runner than Matijevic, and while his bat is a bit weaker, he actually hit better after his promotion to High A and he has an outside chance to end up a starter down the road. Ultimately, I think he has fourth outfielder projection just because most of his tools (speed aside) are just a hair below average, but it's a nice find in a hometown player in the eighth round. 21 year old Alex McKenna was the Astros' fourth round pick out of Cal Poly in 2018, and he got off to a strong start by slashing .311/.394/.512 with seven home runs and a 40/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 44 games at Tri-City and Quad Cities. He has a similar profile to Julks as an all-around player without a standout tool, but I think he currently projects to post slightly higher on-base percentages and at this point is slightly more likely to one day win a starting spot. That said, he doesn't have as much power as Matijevic and his defense is only a little better (closer to average if not slightly above), so both Julks and McKenna remain behind Matijevic on the depth chart. 21 year old Jeremy Pena was the third round pick (102nd overall) out of Maine in the same 2018 draft, and he slashed .250/.340/.309 with one home run and a 19/18 strikeout to walk ratio over 36 games at Tri-City in his debut. The bat is pretty weak but he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and drawing walks, though he wasn't drafted for his bat. Pena is a very good defender at shortstop, one who will stay at the position long term and who could be a valuable utility infielder if he can hit just enough. I wrote about 19 year old Luis Santana, recently acquired for J.D. Davis, in the Mets' farm system review, but here is his profile again. Santana slashed .348/.446/.471 with four home runs and a 23/27 strikeout to walk ratio over 53 games in the rookie level Appalachian League, showing a lot more punch in the bat than you'd expect from a 5'8" infielder because he combines great plate discipline and barrel control with an explosive swing. How that big leg kick holds up in full season ball will be interesting to see, but Santana is a real sleeper prospect who could be a starting second baseman one day. Lastly, 19 year old Freudis Nova gives the Astros one more fun prospect to watch in the low minors, having slashed .308/.331/.466 with six home runs and a 21/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 41 games in complex ball in 2018. Like Pena, he's a very good defender at shortstop and should be able to stick there long term, but he's a little bit better of a hitter who already has shown the ability to consistently barrel the ball up. His plate discipline needs work and he's unproven above complex ball, but a good transition to the New York-Penn League in 2019 could bump him up on prospect lists quickly.
Monday, June 26, 2017
2017 Draft Review: Houston Astros
First 5 rounds: J.B. Bukauskas (1-15), Joe Perez (2-53), Corbin Martin (2-56), J.J. Matijevic (CBB-75), Tyler Ivey (3-91), Peter Solomon (4-121), Nathan Perry (5-151)
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)
The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.
1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.
2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.
2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.
CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.
3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.
4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.
6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.
Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.
Also notable: Jake Adams (6-181), Corey Julks (8-241), Kyle Serrano (10-301), Trey Cumbie (38-1141)
The Astros had five of the first 91 picks, and they used them to get a lot of big name players. They also picked up a lot of local guys, including two players from the University of Houston, one each from Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Lamar, and a pair of Texas community college players, as well as two players from neighboring Oklahoma and one from Louisiana. I like the mix of players the Astros got here, and with many of their top prospects graduating or getting traded away, they did a good job of re-injecting talent into the system.
1-15: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (my rank: 6)
I got to the chance to play against Bukauskas in high school (he threw a shutout), though I did not get an at bat that game. The UNC ace was a virtual lock for the top ten picks, but he slipped right at the end because of a couple of tough starts at the end of the season, one of which I attended. This is a great pick in the middle of the first round, as Bukauskas has ace potential (he's been compared to Sonny Gray) but could easily fall back on a bullpen job if that doesn't work. Even with those two tough starts at the end, he had an excellent junior season, going 9-1 with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP, striking out 116 in 92.2 innings. His fastball sits in the mid 90's to upper 90's with running action, and his power mid 80's to upper 80's slider is one of the best pitches in the draft when he can command it. However, he ran into trouble when I saw him pitch when he couldn't locate the slider for strikes, allowing hitters to lay off and sit on his fastball, which they squared up when it was up in the zone. If the Astros can improve his slider command and help bring that already-solid changeup along, they could have themselves an ace.
2-53: 3B Joe Perez (my rank: 72)
This is one of the most interesting picks in the draft. I originally had Perez ranked in the 50's, higher than any board I had seen, but as a pitcher. I thought he had so much upside on the mound that I didn't even look at him as a hitter, but then he blew out his elbow at the end of the season and required Tommy John surgery, dropping him to 72nd on my list, still as a pitcher. He showcases good power as a hitter and has the upside of a starting third baseman, though his defense has been questioned and could push him to first base. In his favor is that he is a full year younger than the typical high school senior. This is an interesting pick because it's higher than almost anybody thought he would be drafted and because he was taken as a hitter, when general consensus was that he was a better pitching prospect.
2-56: RHP Corbin Martin (my rank: 57)
The Astros had an extra second round pick because of the Cardinals' hacking scandal, and they used it to take their first of many local players. Corbin Martin had a rough season at Texas A&M in 2016 (2-1, 5.47 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, 33/21 K/BB, primarily as a reliever), but proceeded to dominate the Cape Cod League (0-1, 1.15 ERA, 0.70 WHIP, 22/3 K/BB) and came into 2017 with big expectations. For the most part, he met them this year, going 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, striking out 95 and walking 38 in 87.2 innings, primarily as a starter. Martin stands 6'2" and can throw his fastball anywhere from 90-98, sitting more 90-95 as a starter and closer to the mid to upper 90's as a reliever. His power curveball has big break and grades out as plus, but his command still needs improvement. He took a step forward with it this year, but still walked 3.9 per nine, and it may ultimately force him to the bullpen. It's hard to say whether Martin is a starter or a reliever going forward, but it will be fun to watch.
CBB-75: 1B J.J. Matijevic (my rank: 62)
With the last pick of day one, the Astros got a great hitter from the University of Arizona. Though his freshman and sophomore seasons for the Wildcats were so-so, he played great over two years on the Cape (.349/.391/.507, 6 HR in 61 games), and he broke out to slash .383/.436/.633 with 10 home runs as a junior this year for Arizona. His load provides most of his power as he gains ground, and the Cape results mean his power has a good chance of playing up, but his walk rate was a bit low (8.4% this year) for my tastes. Still a great pick here because of the offensive upside.
3-91: RHP Tyler Ivey (unranked)
Ivey is another local guy, having pitched decently well for Texas A&M as a freshman last year (2-3, 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 48/15 K/BB) before transferring to a Texas junior college, where he fits a classic back-end starter profile. He has a full but unspectacular arsenal, including a low 90's fastball that he can cut for some movement, a decent slider/curveball combo, and a changeup, all from a clean delivery and a 6'4" frame. If he wants to cut it as a starter in pro ball, he'll need to prove he can miss more bats with his average stuff, but everything else is there. Ivey signed for $450,000, which is $147,800 below slot.
4-121: RHP Peter Solomon (my rank: 91)
I got to see Peter Solomon make a dominant start against Virginia Tech as a sophomore last year. Despite being a college pitcher, he's more of a high-risk, high-reward pick, as he is a projectable 6'4" and can run his fastball into the mid 90's. He struggles with command, and though he made slight improvements this year, it wasn't as much as scouts were hoping for. He can maintain his fastball velocity deep into games and his curveball has big break, but he did hit a wall and struggled with command in the fifth inning when I saw him last year. After walking 42 batters in 57.2 innings for Notre Dame last year, he walked 28 in 54 innings this year, so he's similar to Corbin Martin in that sense. Solomon signed for $420,000, which is $17,400 below slot.
6-181: 1B Jake Adams (unranked)
Adams spent two years at an Des Moines Area Community College before transferring to Iowa this year, and to say the results were immediate would be an understatement. In 61 games, the 6'2", 250 pound first baseman slashed .335/.417/.747 while leading all of Division I with 29 home runs. The massive power alone was enough to get him taken in the top 200 picks, but he does have things to work through. In addition to a lack of track record, his 57/29 strikeout to walk ratio (20.1% to 10.2%) was less than ideal. There's a lot of swing and miss in his game, but if you include his community college stats, he has now blasted 71 home runs in three seasons post-high school. Adams signed for $210,000, which is $39,600 below slot.
Others: 5th rounder Nathan Perry is a Blue Ridge boy from Bassett, Virginia, one who flashes some tools but has a lot of work to do. The high school catcher shows power at the plate, but he has a lot of swing and miss, so he's far from a given to reach the majors. He also has a lot of work to do defensively, but there is upside here. 8th rounder Corey Julks, another local guy out of the University of Houston, was the very last player ranked on the BA 500, coming off a strong junior year where he slashed .335/.426/.572 with nine home runs and 15 stolen bases for the Cougars. He's a solid defender and a competent hitter, one who profiles well as a fourth outfielder and should provide good value in the 8th round. 10th rounder Kyle Serrano is a very familiar name for fans of college baseball, and not just because his father Dave has 446 wins as the head coach for Cal State Fullerton, UC-Irvine, and Tennessee. The younger Serrano played four years for his dad in Knoxville, but struggled with injuries and finished his career 8-10 with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over 51 games (19 starts). He pitched well on the Cape in 2015 (3.68 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/13 K/BB) but missed most of 2016 and 2017 with injuries, though he did come back and strike out 21 batters in the only 9.2 innings he threw this year. 38th rounder Trey Cumbie has been nothing but dominant for the University of Houston over the past two seasons, going 15-4 with a 1.77 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP for the Cougars, and this was especially valuable when his rotation-mate Seth Romero was kicked off the team. He's not a strikeout guy, racking up just 124 in 157.1 innings for his career, but he makes his money (theoretically, since NCAA players are unpaid) through his command, walking just 24 in his career. It's hard for me to see him signing here, but he could emerge as a top 5 round pick next year.
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