Showing posts with label Braden Olthoff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Braden Olthoff. Show all posts

Monday, August 16, 2021

2021 MLB Draft Review: Los Angeles Angels

Full list of draftees

The Angels must have felt their system was short on arms, because they went twenty for twenty here in drafting nothing but pitchers. They set the stage by going more than a million dollars below slot value on ninth overall pick Sam Bachman, then spent that money on a massive overslot bonus for twelfth rounder Mason Albright, in fact the largest ever that late in the draft. Though they only drafted pitchers, the Angels did not have a monolithic draft and really picked up a variety of different types of arms, balancing power arms with finesse guys, projection plays with now-products, and data-friendly arms with traditional pitchers. I don't love all of the picks, but I'm interested in a lot of them and I especially liked fifth rounder Brett Kerry, ninth rounder Braden Olthoff, eleventh rounder Chase Silseth, and thirteenth rounder Mo Hanley. This was a case where I wanted to write about quite a few more names and had to cut some out.
Full index of team reviews hereFull rankings here.

1-9: RHP Sam Bachman, Miami of Ohio. My rank: #19.
The Angels didn't hold back any punches with their first pick, going with arguably the nastiest pitcher in the entire class aside from Jack Leiter. Sam Bachman was simply too much for MAC hitters this spring, putting up a 1.81 ERA and a 93/17 strikeout to walk ratio over 59.2 innings, allowing just 29 hits along the way for a paltry .147 opponents' batting average to go along with his 41% strikeout rate. The stuff is absolutely legitimate. Bachman sits in the mid 90's with his fastball and routinely touches the upper 90's, cranking it as high as 101 at times, and it's not your typical fastball flight path, either. He gets really low into his delivery, almost crouching as he springs towards the plate, keeping his release point extremely low despite a three quarters arm slot. That makes the pitch ride like a feather in a hurricane, eliciting a ton of swings and misses. The Indianapolis-area native also adds a plus slider that flashes plus-plus, coming with short, late, bat missing bite, sneaking under barrels at the last second. He doesn't use his changeup as often, but is shows flashes of becoming a plus pitch in time with more development. Bachman fills up the strike zone with his three pitches and unlike most pitchers with truly electric stuff, he rarely gets himself into trouble with walks. There are drawbacks, though. The 6'1" righty has not proven his durability yet, as he missed nearly a month with a sore arm early in the season, though he did impress evaluators in his second start back by striking out all nine Northern Illinois hitters he faced, showing there were no lingering issues with the stuff. Still, he pitched past the sixth inning just once this season and while pitch counts aren't available for every game, I don't believe he topped 100 pitches at any point. For a team like the Angels that has struggled to keep pitchers healthy, that makes me nervous. Still, the upside here is a true ace with three plus pitches and above average command at his ceiling, so you can't fault the pick, especially given that they got him at a big discount. Bachman signed for $3.85 million, which was roughly $1.1 million below slot value, and he has allowed two runs through four innings of work so far at High A Tri-City, striking out five.

2-45: LHP Ky Bush, St. Mary's College. My rank: #86.
Having bounced around from Washington State as a freshman to Central Arizona JC as a sophomore to St. Mary's as a junior, Ky Bush really settled in this year and was climbing boards quickly all spring. In a year where many West Coast arms struggled to stand out, Bush really separated himself with a 2.99 ERA and a 112/19 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.1 innings, including a pair of thirteen strikeout performances against Santa Clara and Loyola Marymount. He sits in the low 90's with his fastball and can get up to about 96, coming from a high arm slot that puts downhill plane on the pitch, opposite to Sam Bachman. His best pitch is his slider, coming in with sharp break that works extremely well down in the zone, and he has feel to morph it into more of a curveball at times. Bush also flips in a changeup but mainly pitches off the fastball and slider. Previously a stuff-over-command guy, the 6'6" lefty has worked hard to get more coordinated in his delivery and now fills up the strike zone with above average command, really helping his stuff play up. Because of the steep plane on his fastball, he'll likely have to rely on his slider to get swings and misses once the mid 90's aren't enough to blow by hitters in pro ball, but he still profiles as a #3 or #4 starter once he gets there. The Salt Lake City-area native signed for $1.75 million, which was about $100,000 above slot value, and he tossed 1.1 shutout innings in his High A Tri-City debut, recording all four outs on strikeouts while allowing three baserunners.

3-80: RHP Landon Marceaux, Louisiana State. My rank: #102.
Despite lacking physicality and loud stuff, Landon Marceaux has endeared himself to SEC area scouts just through sheer willpower and performance. He was one of the most consistent starters in the SEC this spring, stepping up for an ineffective and eventually injured Jaden Hill by posting a 2.54 ERA and a 116/26 strikeout to walk ratio over 102.2 innings, including an outing against eventual national champion Mississippi State in which he allowed just three baserunners over seven innings. Marceaux sits around 90 with his fastball, usually a tick above, and gets up to maybe 94 at his best. He adds a slider, curveball, and changeup, none of which are plus, but he shows exceptional feel to sequence and locate them. Every pitch as a purpose and plays off the others, enabling him to hold down tough SEC lineups every Friday even without the electric stuff you'll usually see in Baton Rouge or Nashville or Gainesville on a typical Friday. The skinny 6' righty is a bit undersized but repeats his clean, low effort delivery very consistently while maintaining his stuff throughout his starts, giving him every chance to crack it as a #4 starter at the big league level. He should move quickly and could beat Ky Bush and even Sam Bachman to the majors. The kid from the outskirts of New Orleans signed for full slot value at $767,800.

4-110: RHP Luke Murphy, Vanderbilt. Unranked.
This pick surprised a lot of people, especially given the Angels went above slot. We all knew who Luke Murphy was, as he had plenty of exposure as half of Vanderbilt's "M&M" bullpen duo with Nick Maldonado, but he still went unranked on both the Baseball America 500, the Prospects Live 600, and my tracking list of 243, while sneaking into the MLB Pipeline 250 at #219. Of course, the Angels don't (and shouldn't) care about national rankings and got their guy at pick #110. He came into the season completely off the radar, having redshirted as a freshman in 2019 before walking nine in two innings as a sophomore in 2020, but he put it all together in 2021 with a 2.40 ERA and a 61/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 41.1 innings out of the Vanderbilt bullpen. The 6'5" righty sits in the mid 90's in short stints, getting up as high as 99, and he adds a more inconsistent curveball and changeup that both flash above average. Everything plays up because he puts really tough angle on the ball, reaching his lead leg far across the rubber and releasing the ball well past it, creating a closed off look for the batter. His command improved from non-playable as an underclassman to fringe-average as a sophomore, and he likely would have been a starter had he not been surrounded by names like Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker, and Christian Little. It's probably a relief profile in pro ball regardless given his inconsistent secondaries and 45 grade command, but if the Angels are paying him like they're paying him, they probably see him as a starter. You can flip the book and say he's a projectable 6'5", repeats his delivery well, and has plenty of arm strength, and that could lead to some great things as a starter. The Middle Tennessee native signed for $750,000, which was $222,200 above slot value.

5-141: RHP Brett Kerry, South Carolina. Unranked.
Brett Kerry is a really interesting one, and one who I was interested in before the draft but never got around to. He had a fantastic season for South Carolina this year, putting up a 2.15 ERA and an 84/10 strikeout to walk ratio over 54.1 innings, punctuated by some absolute gems against Vanderbilt (5.2 IP, 0 ER, 10 K) and Kentucky (9 IP, 0 ER, 10 K). He was a long reliever for most of the season before taking on three starts late, and there's a chance the Angels could develop him as a starter. Kerry mainly pitches off his low 90's fastball that can get up to 95-96, adding an above average slider when he needs it to get outs. He commands both pitches very well and pounds the strike zone, rarely getting himself into trouble with walks and tending to stay ahead in the count. The 6' righty lacks much projection, but he repeats his delivery well and holds his stuff over longer outings, adding to his starter upside, though he will need to better incorporate his changeup if he wants to get there. He turned 22 in April, but the track record over three years (2.54 ERA, 167/26 K/BB in 127.2 IP) is hard to ignore and while I'm usually not a fan of college relievers, I am a fan of this one. The Winston-Salem-area native signed for $297,500, which was $92,900 below slot value, and he tossed two shutout innings in his Low A Inland Empire debut while striking out five of the seven batters he faced.

6-171: RHP Jake Smith, Miami. Unranked.
Jake Smith was eligible last year at the State College of Florida (JC) and warranted some interest in the back of the shortened draft, but ended up at Miami where his stock has largely held. In his first and only season at the Division I level, he pitched to a 3.45 ERA and a 63/14 strikeout to walk ratio over 47 innings, originally as a reliever before working into the rotation as the Hurricanes struggled to find consistency in that regard. He has plenty of arm strength, sitting in the low to mid 90's with his fastball and getting up as high as 97-98, adding an above average sweepy slider and a solid changeup. There's some effort in his delivery as he tends to jerk his way through it, but the 6'4" righty generally keeps his long limbs in check enough to stay around the strike zone. If you squint, you can see a starter's profile here with the big, still projectable frame, the arm strength, three pitch mix, and ability to provide consistent strikes, though it will take some work to get there. The Raleigh-Durham native will need to smooth out that delivery a bit more to get to true average command, as well as further refine his changeup into a consistent weapon rather than a change of pace pitch. He signed for $247,500, which was $46,300 below slot value, and he's thrown four shutout innings so far at High A Tri-City while striking out three.

9-261: RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane. My rank: #168.
How can you not root for this guy? Braden Olthoff has had a meteoric rise from where he was just a few years ago and doesn't take anything for granted. Having barely pitched in high school, he and his brand new mid 80's fastball were lightly recruited and he wound up at Palomar JC in San Marcos, where he showed pristine control but was hit around due to his lack of stuff as a freshman. That stuff ticked up a bit as a sophomore and landed him a transfer opportunity to Tulane, and it's safe to say he made the most of it. Olthoff was arguably the best pitcher statistically in college baseball in 2020, allowing just one earned run over 28 innings (a 0.32 ERA) while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced and walking just three against Florida Gulf Coast, Cal State Fullerton, Middle Tennessee State, and Southern. He was a little more hittable over a larger sample this spring and had his line marred a bit by an eight run outing against Cincinnati late in the season, but he still finished with a respectable 3.78 ERA and a 91/11 strikeout to walk ratio over 78.2 innings. The San Diego-area native now sports a low 90's fastball that can get up to around 93-94, adding a huge 12-6 curveball that he can work into a more lateral slider in addition to a plus changeup. However, that stuff did flatten out a bit late in the season this year and he was sitting in the upper 80's in some starts. Olthoff makes everything play up with tremendous pitchability, deftly working through lineups and keeping hitters off balance at virtually all times, executing his game plans with precision. The 6'4" righty may be big, but he's an old school pitcher who throws with very little effort to the point where he almost looks like he's just playing catch. Aside from the changeup, the stuff is pretty fringy as it is so he can't afford to see it tick down like it did in 2021, but it's a really fun profile that could make him a fan favorite back-end starter if the Angels get it right. Having turned 22 in March, he's a bit older, but again he's still pretty new to pitching and shows so much feel for it that I don't doubt his ability to pick up new tricks. He signed for $122,500, which was $35,100 below slot value.

11-321: RHP Chase Silseth, Arizona. My rank: #105.
Chase Silseth may have gone in the eleventh round, but he received the late fourth round money (roughly slot value for pick #119) to go pro with the Angels' sixth largest signing bonus of the draft. He is very well travelled, having travelled from his hometown in northwestern New Mexico all the way across the country to Tennessee for his freshman year, going back to Las Vegas to play at Southern Nevada JC, and finally landing in Tucson at Arizona. He had an up and down spring in the hitter-friendly confines of Hi Corbett Field, finishing with a 5.55 ERA and a 105/29 strikeout to walk ratio over 97.1 innings, but there's a lot to like. The 6' righty goes right after hitters with a low 90's fastball that can get up to 97-98 when he needs it, adding both an above average slider and changeup. His command is average but it plays up because he pounds the strike zone fearlessly while working his pitches in and out, all with a repeatable delivery and a sturdy frame that holds its stuff late into games. He can get hit when he leaves fastballs over the plate or his offspeed stuff flattens out, something he'll need to work hard on in pro ball, but I think he'll figure it out and work his way up as a #4 starter. The Farmington product signed for $485,000, of which $360,000 counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

12-351: LHP Mason Albright, IMG Academy [FL]. My rank: #176.
The single largest bonus in the history of the draft's third day (rounds 11 and on) went to Mason Albright, who received late second round money (roughly equivalent of pick #57) to forgo becoming Virginia Tech's most hyped recruit in years and shattering my heart into a million pieces as an alum. A native of Thurmont, Maryland near the Pennsylvania line, he transferred to the IMG Academy in Florida but like fellow Marylander and Padres second round pick James Wood, he was a bit underwhelming this spring. Albright is not a power pitcher, instead sitting around 90 with his fastball and only getting up to 93-94 at best. He adds a very sweepy slider that has great shape but needs to add significant power, while his above average changeup is his best pitch and could eventually be plus. Everything plays up because he commands the strike zone well and comes from a deceptive low three quarters arm slot that puts good run on the ball, and he can tunnel those pitches off each other well. This spring, the regression wasn't isolated in any one area, rather everything in his arsenal (command included) backed up just a half grade. The Angels likely see that as just a blip on the radar and instead are buying a high baseball IQ pitcher who understands how to work at bats and keep hitters off balance, believing more velocity will come as he adds strength to his 6' frame and gets into their development system. If it all works out, you'll have a mid-rotation starter who combines savvy with stuff and can stick around for a long time. It took nearly $1.25 million to pass up that Virginia Tech commitment, all but $125,000 of which counts against the Angels' bonus pool.

13-381: LHP Mo Hanley, Adrian College. Unranked.
Mo Hanley was lightly recruited out of high school but has steadily improved his game at Division III Adrian College, then after a strong fall, he was a sleeper pick for a lot of Midwest area scouts. Unfortunately, he went down with Tommy John surgery just five starts into the season, but the Angels were impressed enough anyways to take him here in the thirteenth round. Over the last two seasons, he owns a 3.13 ERA and a 57/15 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.2 innings, capping off a successful four year career. Hanley has a huge arm that pumps fastballs into the mid 90's with riding action and a wicked slider that's a plus pitch when it's located. The 6'2" lefty has a unique delivery in which he stands on the balls of his feet as he winds up, lifting his outstretched lead leg high into the air in a way that makes my hamstring hurt before exploding towards the plate. Despite all the moving parts, it's not a particularly high effort operation, though he does struggle to repeat it a times and his command is below average, making his pitches play down. For now, it's a reliever profile given his two pitches, inconsistency with his command, the injury, and the fact that he's completely unproven against higher level competition, but there are reasons to hope for a starting pitcher. The Tampa native is big and strong and while he's far from a finished product, he's been steadily trending up for a long time. The Angels need to smooth out his delivery a little bit or at least help him repeat it more consistently to get his command close to average, while also getting him more consistent with his slider and helping add a changeup. It's a lot to ask from a recently-turned 22 year old working his way back from Tommy John, but if the Angels are patient, it's doable. He signed for $125,000.

17-501: RHP Mason Erla, Michigan State. Unranked.
Mason Erla was a breakout arm in 2020, posting a sparkling 1.04 ERA and a 42/6 strikeout to walk ratio over 26 innings before the season shut down. He earned looks towards the back of the five round draft, but teams weren't willing to meet his bonus demands and he returned to East Lansing for a fifth year. After posting a 3.50 ERA and an 80/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 79.2 innings, his profile hasn't really changed much, but the fact that he turns 24 shortly after this article is published dampens his stock. Erla has a low 90's fastball that can touch 97-98 early in starts, coming in from a low three quarters arm slot with riding action that makes it tough to square up. He adds a slider that looks sharp at times but is probably an average pitch going forward as well as a changeup, generally throwing his fair share of quality strikes for average command. Given that age, it's almost certainly a relief profile, but the 6'4" righty should be able to move very quickly in that role and watch his stuff tick up with it. For the seventeenth round, I think it's for sure an interesting bet that could help the big league bullpen out as soon as 2022. The rural Michigan native signed, but his bonus isn't publicly available or at least I couldn't find it.

Sunday, February 28, 2021

An Early Look at the Low and Mid-Major Conferences (West): 2021 MLB Draft

Originally published in Prospects Worldwide on January 22nd.

Last time, we talked about the loaded crop of mid-major talent east of the Mississippi River, from pitchers Sam Bachman and Mason Black to bats Ethan Wilson and Hunter Goodman. The west side of the river isn’t quite as fertile at this point, especially beyond Sam Houston State’s Colton Cowser, but it should be interesting nonetheless. The states of California and Texas dominate here, combining to produce eight out of the ten names. If the list had gone to thirteen, it would have been eleven of thirteen. This is also a pitcher-heavy group, as after Cowser, slots two through six bring five arms in a row.

1. OF Colton Cowser, Sam Houston State

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6’3″, 195 lbs. Born 3/20/2000. Hometown: Cypress, TX
2019-2020: 8 HR, .339/.436/.554, 14 SB, 38/34 K/BB in 70 games.

Cypress Ranch High School in the Houston suburbs had quite the team a few years ago. Pitchers J.J. Goss and Matthew Thompson went 36th and 45th overall in 2019 to the Rays and White Sox, respectively, while another pitcher, Ty Madden, ended up at Texas and is a potential first round pick in 2021. Outfielder Colton Cowser was probably the fourth best player on that team and headed to Sam Houston State. However, after slashing .361/.450/.602 with seven home runs and a nice 29/26 strikeout to walk ratio in 56 games as a freshman, he rocketed himself into the national conversation. An unremarkable start to 2020 (.255/.379/.364, 1 HR, 9/8 K/BB) may not have built his case further, but it didn’t do much to damper it and he’s easily the best mid-major prospect west of the Mississippi River.

First and foremost, Cowser stands out for his feel to hit. He has struck out in just 11.9% of his plate appearances at Sam Houston State, keeping low swing and miss rates and low chase rates on not only fastballs but offspeed pitches as well. It’s not just pure bat to ball skills with Cowser, as he also shows plus feel for the barrel that enables him to consistently drive the ball into the gaps and pop for some home runs too. He’s an above average runner who has stolen 14/16 bases for the Bearkats and should stick in center field, further adding to his leadoff profile.

At a wiry 6’3″, some evaluators think he can grow into above average power. He knocked 31 extra base hits (including seven home runs) as a freshman and added three doubles and a homer in 2020, all despite utilizing a flat swing that has led to a 46% ground ball rate. His proponents see that plus feel for the barrel, room to grow, and potential to add loft and can see 20-25 home runs per year. Some pessimists, however, don’t think he’ll get much bigger and will point to unremarkable exit velocities to say he projects for closer to 10-15. Regardless, it’s a first round profile for the Houstonian, one that can sit atop a big league lineup for years.

2. LHP Rodney Boone, UC Santa Barbara

Bat: L. Throw: L. 6’2″, 175 lbs. Born 4/9/2000. Hometown: Orange, CA
2019-2020: 10-1, 2.73 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 111/40 K/BB in 102.1 IP.

Some people really, really like Rodney Boone, while others aren’t as impressed. Regardless, it’s one of the more interesting profiles in this year’s draft. Boone has been as steady as they come for UC Santa Barbara, winning ten of eleven decisions and posting a 2.73 ERA across more than 100 innings, striking out 111 and walking 40 along the way. Now, the school that gave us Shane Bieber, Dillon Tate, and Ben Brecht in recent drafts has another potential Day One arm.

Boone is unique among Day One hopefuls in that he does not throw hard at all. Throughout his time in Santa Barbara, his fastball has typically sat in the mid to upper 80’s, but his stock has risen lately with reports he was hitting 90 this fall. Even with the velocity bump, he’s still fringy in that regard, but he gets good spin rates on the pitch and hitters don’t seem to pick it up. The Orange County native also adds a potentially plus changeup that generates a ton of whiffs, tunneling very well off his fastball and again proving difficult to pick up. His curveball is his third pitch for now, as he tends to bounce it. Hitters haven’t chased it much to this point, but they often swing and miss when they attempt at it, so getting more confident in the pitch could help him take another step forward.

Boone has some work to do, considering his fringy velocity gives him very few benefits of the doubt. First and foremost, he needs to maintain this slight uptick in velocity and perhaps even add another tick this spring, as 88 with good pitch data is still 88. His control also still stands out ahead of his command, which will be important when he can’t sneak as many 88 MPH fastballs by pro hitters as he can in the Big West. That’s another reason maintaining and improving upon his velocity gains will be important. The ceiling here is very interesting, however, with a very deceptive lefty who could potentially sit low 90’s with two above average secondary offerings and above average command.

3. RHP Trenton Denholm, UC Irvine

Bat: R. Throw: R. 5’11”, 190 lbs. Born 11/29/1999. Hometown: El Dorado Hills, CA
2018-2020: 15-14, 2.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 166/55 K/BB in 197.2 IP.

Sticking with crafty arms in the UC system, we’ll turn next to Irvine’s Trenton Denholm. The Anteater ace was eligible in 2020, but he was extremely young for his class and returns to campus for a fourth year while fitting right in age-wise with many other first-time eligible college players. Denholm has been absolutely lights out since the end of his freshman season, putting up a 1.90 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 118/30 strikeout to walk ratio over 123.1 innings for UC Irvine the last two seasons while also shoving for 32.2 (!) shutout innings (one unearned run) over two summers on the Cape. Now, with a similar birthday to much of this year’s college class, he has one of the best overall track records of all.

Denholm’s stuff isn’t explosive, but he still leaves hitters shaking their heads. The fastball sits around 90, usually a tick above up to about 92-93. He throws a distinct curveball and slider, both of which are solid average pitches. His plus changeup is his best pitch, just fading and fading away from the left handed batters into some dark abyss. The Sacramento-area native shows above average command, but even that plays up because he’s absolutely fearless on the mound and will pound the zone with everything he has.

Denholm is far from the most physical arm in California, listed at a skinny 5’11”, but that hasn’t stopped him. Though he doesn’t project to add much velocity, it’s really easy to fall in love with his feel for pitching and bulldog mentality, and the results back it up. Denholm projects as a back-end starter or a long reliever due to his lack of velocity and swing and miss breaking stuff, but I wouldn’t bet against him.

4. RHP Dominic Hamel, Dallas Baptist

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 3/2/1999. Hometown: Chandler, AZ
2020: 2-0, 4.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 27/7 K/BB in 19.2 IP.

Interestingly, Dominic Hamel is actually draft-eligible for the fifth year in a row in 2021. After graduating from Hamilton High School in the Phoenix suburbs in 2017, he spent two years at Yavapai JC, then transferred to Dallas Baptist for the 2020 season. Hamel started off strong, allowing one earned run while striking out 19 over twelve innings against South Dakota State and UNC, but faltered against Arkansas State and Oral Roberts by allowing nine earned runs in 7.2 innings. Ultimately, it wasn’t enough to get drafted in the shortened event.

Hamel really interests progressive clubs that are confident in their pitching development (hint hint, @Rays). To this point, he hasn’t quite put everything together, but he does have a lot going for him. The Phoenix-area native sits comfortably in the low 90’s, topping out around 96, but makes the pitch play up significantly with great extension. He adds a pair of high spin breaking balls in a curve and slider, both of which can flash above average, though they’re inconsistent to this point. Hamel’s changeup isn’t much of a factor yet.

The 6’2″ righty has a sturdy, athletic frame, and his strike throwing ability has improved to near average. A data-savvy team will be eager to get their hands on his high spin stuff, and they could have a lot of fun tinkering with ways to play one pitch off another. Improving his consistency and adding a changeup will be key to raising Hamel’s floor, especially given that he’ll be 22 in March. The ceiling, though, is that of a mid-rotation starter, with a fallback option as a two or three pitch reliever that could sit more consistently in the mid 90’s with a true plus fastball.

5. RHP Tanner Bibee, Cal State Fullerton

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 190 lbs. Born 3/5/1999. Hometown: Mission Viejo, CA
2018-2020: 9-15, 3.92 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 169/52 K/BB in 181.1 IP.

Cal State Fullerton is a talent pipeline that has recently churned out tons of pitchability-types including Tom Eshelman, Connor Seabold, John Gavin, and Colton Eastman, and now Tanner Bibee looks to be next. He was steady over his first two years (4.15 ERA, 136/47 K/BB in 151.2 IP) and took a nice step forward in 2020 (2.73 ERA, 33/5 K/BB in 29.2 IP) against a pretty strong non-conference slate that included Stanford and Texas. He also showed well in the Cape Cod League in 2019 (3.38 ERA, 19/4 K/BB in 18.2 IP), giving himself a pretty strong track record to compete with arms who might have louder stuff.

Bibee hangs out in the low 90’s with his fastball, topping out around 93. The pitch plays up because he puts tough angle on the ball, pitching from the far third base side of the rubber and hiding the ball well from a closed off delivery. His slider is probably his best pitch, coming in around 80 with late tilt and flashing above average. At this point, the changeup grades out as below average, looking pretty flat most of the time. With above average command and pitchability, everything works together well.

It’s a pretty safe back-end starter profile for the Orange County native. While Bibee doesn’t possess even an average changeup unlike many of his peers in that demographic, he stands out a bit for his above average breaking ball. Teams looking to get a quick-to-the-big-leagues arm and perhaps save a little money in the process will be very interested in the 6’2″ righty, who was off to a hot start in 2020.

6. RHP Braden Olthoff, Tulane

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’4″, 220 lbs. Born 3/12/1999. Hometown: Vista, CA
2020: 4-0, 0.32 ERA, 0.54 WHIP, 47/3 K/BB in 28 IP.

Few pitchers can match Braden Olthoff’s meteoric rise in recent years. A lightly recruited high school hitter, he picked up pitching as a senior and landed at Palomar College with a mid 80’s fastball. Two years later, he transferred to Tulane with increased velocity and shoved; over four starts, he allowed one earned run and just fifteen baserunners while striking out 47 of the 101 batters he faced, good for the third best ERA, third most strikeouts, and fourth best WHIP in Division I (min. 20 innings). He went undrafted last year, but has a chance to continue his climb in 2021 (though I’m pretty sure he’s reached his ceiling as far as performance goes). Though he didn’t face the strongest competition, he did out-duel Tanner Bibee with a complete game, sixteen strikeout shutout against Cal State Fullerton.

Since high school, the 6’4″ Olthoff has added about six or seven miles per hour to his fastball and now sits in the low 90’s, topping out around 94. He mixes in an average curveball with nice depth that he can also morph into a slider, working well between the two. Olthoff’s best pitch is probably his changeup, which gets above average grades and plays well off his other three pitches. Of course, everything plays up due to plus command and pitchability, as well as the ability to hide the ball behind his 6’4″ frame. Also going in the San Diego-area native’s favor is durability, as he throws almost effortlessly and is built like a prototypical starting pitcher.

Once you get to Day Two in the draft, it can get difficult to differentiate between a glut of pitchability arms. Olthoff stands out due to his 2020 performance, first and foremost, but also due to his trajectory. He has not only improved, but leapt forward every year since high school. It might be hard to project yet another big leap in 2021, but slight improvements to his breaking balls or perhaps another tick on his fastball could push him into top 100 consideration, especially if he goes out and shoves like he did in 2020.

7. C Shane McGuire, San Diego

Bat: L. Throw: R. 6′, 195 lbs. Born 4/12/1999. Hometown: Kent, WA
2018-2020: 3 HR, .320/.442/.407, 7 SB, 65/75 K/BB in 117 games.

Shane McGuire gives us a sixth straight player who was eligible in 2020 but returned to school. The younger brother of Blue Jays catcher Reese McGuire, Shane won’t match his brother’s first round pedigree but has a chance to be a similar player. He has improved every year at San Diego and was off to a blazing start in 2020, slashing .469/.561/.688 with one home run and just two strikeouts in twelve games. That came on the heels of a .325/.444/.401 sophomore season and he has a great track record with wood bats, which is made even better by the fact that he will likely stick behind the plate.

McGuire stands out most for his plate discipline. After striking out in 16.7% of his plate appearances as a freshman in 2018, he cut that to 10.6% in 2019 and then just 4.9% in the shortened 2020 season, all while walking a combined 14.8% of the time over three years (vs. a 12.8% overall K rate). McGuire works counts, selects hittable pitches while letting the bad ones go, and makes contact with the ones he does select. He has some loft and whip in his left handed swing, though to this point his power plays well below average despite his feel for the barrel. Learning to get a little more extension could perhaps get him closer to 45-50 grade pop.

The Seattle-area native shows a strong, accurate arm behind the plate that helps him control the running game. His glovework is a bit choppier, but he’s gotten better in that regard and being the brother of a big league catcher will continue to work in his favor. Unless he really improves his power output, it’s hard to project McGuire as a future starter, but his elite plate discipline and long track record of getting on base give him a high floor. He’s one of the safer-bet backup catchers in this year’s draft once you get into Day Two of the draft.

8. SS Wyatt Young, Pepperdine

Bat: L. Throw: R. 5’7″, 160 lbs. Born 12/5/1999. Hometown: Honolulu, HI
2019-2020: 2 HR, .311/.357/.350, 5 SB, 44/17 K/BB in 64 games.

Listed at 5’7″, 160 pounds, Wyatt Young is one of the smallest players in this year’s draft and will earn plenty of comparisons to former Oregon State shortstop Nick Madrigal. He’s put up a nice track record over two years in Malibu, slashing .311/.357/.350 over 64 games, and he also put up an impressive .340/.413/.440 line over 42 games in the Cape Cod League in 2019. With Eric Thames signing to play in Japan and Zach Vincej floating around the upper minors, there are no former Pepperdine Waves in MLB, so Young will look to change that (if A.J. Puckett doesn’t beat him to it).

As with Colton Cowser at the top of this list, Young’s selling point is his bat. He makes extremely easy contact, having struck out in just 14.5% of his plate appearances at Pepperdine and 16.3% on the Cape. However, unlike Shane McGuire just ahead of him on this list, it’s more of a product of pure bat to ball skills than strong plate discipline. Young routinely puts the ball in play early in the count, which to this point has limited his walk rate to 5.6% for the Waves. While he’s adept at finding holes in the defense and poking the ball into gaps, especially to the opposite field, he lacks the physicality to drive the ball to the wall, leading to pretty empty batting averages overall. Defensively, he mans shortstop for Pepperdine, but more athletic and more physical defenders will likely push him to second base in pro ball.

Young’s plus bat to ball skills give him a very high floor in pro ball. He will have no problem putting the ball in play against advanced arms, and on the Cape he showed that he can still find the gaps against those kinds of arms. The Honolulu native’s lack of power likely limits his ceiling, so his path to a full time big league job will rest on getting more patient at the plate and upping that on-base percentage. Still, he likely profiles as a bench option and appeals most to old school teams.

9. RHP Owen Sharts, Nevada

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’1″, 175 lbs. Born 11/23/1999. Hometown: Simi Valley, CA
2019-2020: 3-11, 5.70 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 72/42 K/BB in 90 IP.

As of 2018, Owen Sharts was probably the best prospect of these ten players. A potential top five rounds pick, he instead enrolled at Nevada and struggled as a freshman, putting up a 5.96 ERA and a 40/35 strikeout to walk ratio over 68 innings. In 2020, he was hit around by Portland and Cal Baptist (combined 9 IP, 10 ER, 18 H), but also showed progress by dominating Oregon and Hofstra (combined 13 IP, 2 ER, 19/3 K/BB). Reno can be a tough place to pitch, and while the ERA hasn’t quite been there, he has done a good job controlling the strike zone and finished with a 32/7 K/BB in 2020. He also looked very good in the Cape Cod League in 2019, his 4.82 ERA hiding the fact that he looked dominant in all but one very rough outing.

Sharts joins the glut of back-end starter types in this group, coming in with a wide array of strengths but no true differentiators. His fastball sits in the low 90’s and he does a good job of holding that velocity, while his downer curveball and changeup project as average while flashing a few 55’s. The command isn’t pinpoint, but the Los Angeles-area native controls the strike zone well by going right after hitters with three big league pitches. He’s not built like a true horse, listed at 6’1″ and 175 pounds, but he has a clean delivery and repeats it pretty well.

To this point, I don’t think Sharts has really differentiated himself like Tanner Bibee has with his slider or Braden Olthoff has with his changeup and performance. In 2021, Sharts could use a little more consistency, as he has a tendency to get blown up when his stuff flattens out. Otherwise, with three big league pitches, good control, and no major red flags, he profiles as a safe bet back-end type for Day Two.

10. RHP Cade Winquest, UT Arlington

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6’2″, 205 lbs. Born 4/30/2000. Hometown: Haslet, TX
2019-2020: 6-2, 5.28 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 61/35 K/BB in 59.2 IP.

The University of Texas at Arlington, sitting in the shadow of Globe Life Field and AT&T Stadium, has also sat in the shadow of better Sun Belt programs like Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette, and South Alabama. Their crown jewels are John Lackey (1998), Hunter Pence (2003-2004), and Michael Choice (2008-2010), but no Maverick has gone in the top eight rounds since Zach Thompson in 2014. Cade Winquest may not match Thompson’s fifth round selection, but he’s trending in the right direction and could break out in 2021. He held his own as a freshman starter in 2019 (5.01 ERA, 49/24 K/BB) but never quite got going in 2020 (6.75 ERA, 12/11 K/BB). Only set to turn 21 at the end of April, he’s relatively young for a college junior.

To this point, Winquest has been a starter for the Mavs, and even in that role he’s shown flashes of big potential to go with inconsistency. In short stints, the Fort Worth-area native’s fastball sits in the mid 90’s and can touch the upper 90’s, playing up due to extension well beyond what you’d typically see from someone 6’2″. His high-spin curveball needs more consistency, but it flashes plus regularly and could eventually earn a true 60 grade. He recently added a slider and a splitter, which haven’t been seen much in game action. The command comes and goes, anywhere from fringe average to well below given the day. He walked a reasonable 10.9% as a freshman, but that jumped to 23.4% as a sophomore and 23.2% over the summer.

It’s unclear where Winquest’s future lies. On one hand, he looks like a reliever with two big pitches and very inconsistent command, and that likely tickets him to the bullpen. However, if he can clean up that command a little bit as a junior and show that even one of his two new pitches are for real, we could have a legitimate starting prospect on our hands. It’s still more exciting to picture the Texan in a big league bullpen at this point, where he could throw two legitimate 60-grade pitches (the fastball perhaps reaching 70) and worry less about pacing and command. There will be a lot of eyes in Arlington in 2021.

Other Interesting Low/Mid Major Options in the West

California

Three Californians just missed the list. Perhaps the closest was catcher Wyatt Hendrie, who transferred to San Diego State after a strong career at Antelope Valley CC. The Palmdale native is athletic for a catcher and runs well in addition to showing a strong arm, giving him a chance to continually improve behind the plate. His compact swing produces a lot of line drives and balls in the gaps, though to this point we haven’t seen much in the way of over the fence power. Hendrie controls the strike zone well and since he’ll be 22 in February, he could be a cheaper sign

At UC Riverside, Troy Percival‘s son Cole Percival has one of the better right arms on the West Coast. He sits in the low 90’s and touches 94-95 as a starter, getting nice sinking action on the fastball that proves difficult to pick up. Percival also adds an average slider and a fringy changeup. The 6’5″ righty throws strikes but his control is ahead of his command, and his fastball/slider combination would likely play up better in the bullpen. Percival was eligible in 2020 and will turn 22 in February.

Lastly, Michael McGreevy has been lights out for two years at UC Santa Barbara (7-1, 1.64 ERA, 79/20 K/BB), and since he won’t be 21 until July, he’s much younger than Hendrie and Percival. The Southern Californian sits around 90 with his sinker and adds a 12-6 curveball with good depth as well as a decent slider and changeup. Nothing pops out, but he throws strikes with all four pitches and his easy delivery portends well to a future in the rotation, while his projectable 6’4″ frame could help him get more consistently into the low 90’s.

Texas

A couple of Lone Star catchers stand out, including Dominic Hamel’s battery-mate Ryan Wrobleski. The Minneapolis-area native transferred in from Northern Iowa Area CC and has a lot to like. He’s a sound defender behind the plate who will stick, which makes his bat more attractive. Wrobleski generates above average raw power from a forceful right handed swing that can get long at times, and with seven home runs in the Northwoods League and three in fourteen games for Dallas Baptist, he has tapped it in games. Evaluators will want to see him tap that power over a full season in 2021 and keep the swing and miss down, especially on offspeed pitches.

Rice’s Justin Collins has a similar profile, though he’s already 22 and was eligible in 2020. The Houston native popped 13 home runs and slashed .262/.380/.403 over his first two seasons with the Owls, but slumped to .190/.352/.214 in 2020 and went undrafted. Collins has a bit of a noisy setup and can be streaky, showing a patient approach but swinging and missing a lot when he gets out of whack (42.6% K rate in 2020). His glove will require more work than Wrobleski’s, but he has the ability to stick with good coaching.

Elsewhere

Texoma area scouts are well acquainted with Adam Oviedo, who was a top five round prospect coming out of high school south of Fort Worth in 2017. Oviedo first played at TCU, where he rebounded from a rough freshman season (.228/.319/.257) to show well as a sophomore (.291/.379/.429). Transferring to Oral Roberts, he went undrafted in 2020 despite a hot start (.302/.353/.556) and will return for another year. He has a broad base of skills but no carrying tool, showing a simple, quick swing and a patient approach, but well below average power for most of his career until he hit five home runs in fifteen games in 2020. He’ll likely slide to second base in pro ball, so proving his 2020 home run barrage was at least somewhat for real rather than a fluke will be his key to becoming a big league role player.

Over at Arkansas-Little Rock, we have another undrafted returnee. Aaron Funk rebounded from an awful 2019 (11.45 ERA, 16/20 K/BB) to look lights out in 2020, putting up a 2.01 ERA and a 37/8 strikeout to walk ratio over 31.1 innings (including a 17 strikeout complete game against North Alabama). The Lawrence, Kansas native sits around 90 with his fastball, but it plays up due to the nice extension he gets from his 6’5″ frame. He also flashes an above average curveball with great depth. Funk’s delivery can get a bit rigid, so smoothing it out might help him peak into the low 90’s more often. He probably profiles better as a reliever, where his fastball could get another boost and his inconsistent command won’t be as much of an issue.